The former Chancellor of the Exchequer explains that the Tory prime minister has been “liberated” to tackle the UK’s tax burden. But will he in the next budget? Kwarteng joins this week's episode to talk taxes, the "mini-budget" and what he thinks the Tory party should do before the next election. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Making parallels between the Spanish flu pandemic and Covid-19, the Wall Street veteran says a growth boom could be coming. He also discusses what he considers the arbitrary nature of central banks’ 2% inflation target, and why he sees Bitcoin as digital gold. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Just like gold, Bitcoin is `only worth what people will pay for it,’ says Oaktree Capital Management co-founder Howard Marks. He discusses crypto, explains why he believes the investment environment has undergone a “sea change,” and that we won’t be returning to the world of 0% interest rates in the foreseeable future. So instead of Bitcoin or gold, investors should be in a high-yield bond fund.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As you await this week's Merryn Talks Money conversation with OakTree's Howard Mark , check out another podcast from our team here at Bloomberg: Daybreak Europe Edition. Every episode delivers the day's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. Available every morning by 7am GMT in your feed.  Subscribe On AppleSubscribe On SpotifySubscribe On Youtube Subscribe On Podcast Addict Subscribe On AudibleSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

All too many commentators on the UK economy are “default decliners,” according to Simon French, chief economist and head of research at UK investment bank Panmure Gordon: there’s nothing they can’t put a lousy spin on.French and Janus Henderson portfolio manager Laura Foll join this week’s Merryn Talks Money to share their UK economic outlook for 2024. The data on the British economy isn’t looking bad at all, French says—certainly not as bad as the numbers coming out of Germany.They also discuss their expectations for house prices and what sectors look promising right now. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Saxo Bank has published the latest in its annual series of “outrageous predictions,” and among the bigger calls is that American capitalism is ending. As US debt spirals ever upwards, the federal government will have to make government bonds tax-free, according to Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen, who joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money to discuss the list. “The hand of government is just getting heavier and heavier,” he says.Other predictions include a global Champions League owned by Saudi Arabia, a health crisis triggered by obesity drugs and a two percent European Union wealth tax.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Professor and filmmaker Peter Byck says lessons from ancient bison herds can make cattle farming less of a climate disaster and more profitable. Merryn speaks to him about his latest 4-part documentary series "Roots So Deep (you can see the devil down there)" and the future of farming. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the US and China vie for supremacy, Pippa Malmgren, economist, author and former adviser to US President George W. Bush, says the threat of conflict is growing. But there may be a silver lining.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg News Now is a comprehensive audio report on today's top stories. Listen for the latest news, whenever you want it, covering global business stories around the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Senior Reporter John Stepek joins Merryn to discuss her conversation with Kokou Agbo-Bloua, the Societe Generale global head of economics, cross-asset and quant research.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Recessions aren’t like they used to be, says Kokou Agbo-Bloua, The Societe Generale global head of economics, cross-asset and quant research contends fixed rate-debt and hefty cash piles have help companies develop short-term immunity to rising interest rates. So has the “kinetic velocity” of the vast fiscal stimulus of the last few years, he says.  Agbo-Bloua argues on this week’s Merryn Talks Money that while all of that’s nice for now, it can’t last.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Merryn and senior reporter John Stepek discuss the conversation with financial historian Edward Chancellor. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Financial historian Edward Chancellor tells Merryn how low rates resulted in capital being misallocated, and why that’s bad news for any soft landings. Plus, John Stepek tells investors how to get exposure to cheap UK equities. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Merryn and senior reporter John Stepek discuss the conversation with Argonaut’s Barry Norris. Links of research/stories referenced in the show and aftershow: https://www.argonautcapital.co.uk/stockumentaries/2023/10/26/britains-a-goner-with-the-wind/https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i390/an_inconvenient_fact.aspxhttps://www.gov.uk/government/news/boost-for-offshore-wind-as-government-raises-maximum-prices-in-renewable-energy-auction https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/siemens-energy-secures-15-billion-deal-to-shore-up-financeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-27/faulty-wind-turbines-become-germany-s-16-billion-problem Link to Money Distilled newsletter: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Argonaut’s Barry Norris, whose fund has been making money by shorting renewable energy firms, joins Merryn Talks Money to explain.Links of research/stories referenced in the show and aftershow: https://www.argonautcapital.co.uk/stockumentaries/2023/10/26/britains-a-goner-with-the-wind/https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i390/an_inconvenient_fact.aspxhttps://www.gov.uk/government/news/boost-for-offshore-wind-as-government-raises-maximum-prices-in-renewable-energy-auction https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/siemens-energy-secures-15-billion-deal-to-shore-up-financeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-27/faulty-wind-turbines-become-germany-s-16-billion-problem Link to Money Distilled newsletter: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Merryn Somerset Webb and senior reporter John Stepek reflect on Asante’s assessment of the current EM landscape, debate his argument for choosing India over China as a place to invest and how he chooses what companies to put his money behind. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Emerging markets have had a bad stretch, but fund manager Jonathan Asante explains how picky investors can make them work. After taking a break from the industry in 2019, Asante is getting back in with the launch of the Chikara Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund.Plus, John Stepek joins to talk about the leasehold reform mentioned in this week's King's Speech. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At Bloomberg, we’re always talking about the biggest business stories, and no one is bigger than Elon Musk. In this new chat weekly show, host David Papadopoulos and a panel of guests including Businessweek’s Max Chafkin, Tesla reporter Dana Hull, Big Tech editor Sarah Frier, and more, will break down the most important stories on Musk and his empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cathie Wood says she would unambiguously bet on Bitcoin — rather than gold or cash — to safeguard against the possibility of deflation in the coming decade. The head of ARK Investment Management joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money podcast and reiterates her view that she expects an era of falling prices, backed by new technologies including artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, robotics, genomic sequencing and blockchain. It’s a view she’s held since 2021.  On this week’s special aftershow episode, Somerset Webb and senior reporter John Stepek reflect on Wood’s convictions. For Stepek, Wood’s greatest edge is “being able to sell a good story to investors and make money from it.” But he points out, “that doesn’t mean that the investments she’s in are going to make money.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Despite a rough few years for her Innovation exchange-traded fund, Ark Investment Management founder Cathie Wood still sees a bright future. She joins this week to talk about her outlook, Tesla, the merits of Bitcoin and more. Plus, John Stepek joins to discuss the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the UK, there are 70% fewer listed companies today than in 1996. Around the world, equity markets are getting progressively smaller as the number of publicly traded companies dwindles. So where have all the companies gone? In this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, Schroders’s Duncan Lamont and Douglas Abbott join host Merryn Somerset Webb to try and answer that question.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Why have equity markets around the world, and in the UK in particular, been shrinking? According to Duncan Lamont and Douglas Abbott of Schroders, the answer is simple: a robust private equity industry means more companies are going private. The two men joined Merryn Somerset Webb this week on the podcast Merryn Talks Money to discuss this state of affairs, both globally and in Britain where the situation has become extreme. There are 70% fewer listed companies in the UK today than was the case in 1996. In this week’s aftershow, senior reporter John Stepek joins host Somerset Webb to discuss the solutions posited by Lamont and Abbott for tackling the disappearance of listed UK companies.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The way the British government funds itself is complicated—ridden with fiscal drag and stealth levies. Everyone seems to hate the system for something, and there’s arguably a dire need for reform. That’s the case that was made by Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson during an episode of Merryn Talks Money this week. But what kind of changes are we talking about, and will they work? In this week’s special aftershow episode, Somerset Webb and senior reporter John Stepek unpack Johnson’s comments on the UK tax system and the changes he says are necessary to encourage growth across the country.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson joins this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money to explain how the seemingly impossible can be achieved.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a new series, Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek are examining housing markets across the globe to see how they’re holding up, and if there are any lessons we can read across to the UK. On this episode, they take a look at Germany with Bloomberg editor Benedikt Kammel and TV correspondent Oliver Crook, both in Berlin, and talk about the profitable world of subletting, the consequences of rent control and the country's fascination with Kleingartens.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The reckoning for markets is picking up speed, says GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham, and as a result investors for should be wary of the US. On this week's aftershow, Merryn and John Stepek unpack Grantham's comments. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In 2021, Jeremy Grantham was telling anyone who would listen that global asset markets were in one of the biggest bubbles of all time—and that a reckoning was coming. That reckoning, he says, began the next year.The co-founder of GMO LLC says that, while this reckoning recently took a break, it’s now back with a vengeance. Grantham joins this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money to make the case that—as a result—no one should be invested in the US. In particular, he warns of the Russell 2000, with its high level of zombie companies and horrible debt levels. He calls it “the most vulnerable area” to rising rates. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you think the US is heading for a soft landing, you might have another thing coming. That’s according to Seema Shah, the chief global strategist for Principal Asset Management. Despite a stream of data in recent weeks supporting the Federal Reserve’s best-case scenario, Shah argues there’s no way an economy can survive the super-fast shift in interest rates just seen without some relatively unpleasant repercussions. What would that future look like? Shah joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money to give her view of the landscape. Plus, Merryn and John Stepek discuss what Shah's predictions could mean for your portfolio, and John's tip of the week could earn you £1000 for a few hours of "admin work." See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this week’s Merryn Talks Money, host Merryn Somerset Webb poses the question of whether Brexit has actually harmed the UK economy as much as some may think. The answer is discussed by her guests: Robert Colville, director of the Centre for Policy Studies, who voted for the UK to remain in the European Union, and economist Julian Jessop, who voted for the UK to leave. They agree that—in the short term—it’s hard to argue there isn’t some damage, given the friction the UK has created between itself and one of its major trading partners. Brexit has also added to political uncertainty in the country over the last few years. But what’s less certain, they say, is how much harm has been done by Brexit. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Matt Cole, head of Strive Asset Management, the anti-activism fund co-founded by GOP hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy, assails the use of sustainability targets in determining executive pay.  He joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money to discuss what he says is Strive’s mission— encouraging companies to “focus on excellence” rather than ESG mandates—and argues why he thinks ESG mandates threaten democracy. Plus, Money Distilled author and senior reporter John Stepek on why the UK pensions Triple Lock needs to go. Sign up for Money Distilled now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Senior reporter and Money Distilled author John Stepek joins Merryn to talk through the themes hit in the two panels at the Fringe Festival in Edinburgh. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we bring you a lightly edited version of Merryn's panel at the Fringe Festival in Edinburgh called "The Butcher, the Brewer, the Baker and Merryn Somerset Webb." It was held at Panmure House--Adam Smith's residence between 1778 and 1790. We taped this panel on August 26, 2023. Guests include: Russell Napier, Anna MacDonald and James Anderson.Sign up to John Stepek's Money Distilled: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Double feature this week--here is the second day of Merryn's panel "The Butcher, the Brewer, the Baker." Again, it was held at Panmure House--Adam Smith's residence between 1778 and 1790. We taped this panel on August 27, 2023. Guests include: Jim Mellon, Richard Wilson, Paul Johnson and Simon Evans.Sign up to John Stepek's Money Distilled: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For your summer listening, the Merryn Talks Money team brings you an episode from another podcast you might like: In the City. This week, Francine Lacqua speaks to a panel of Bloomberg experts including Bloomberg Opinion columnist Marcus Ashworth, reporter Tom Rees, and Ana Andrade of Bloomberg Economics. They discuss the central bank’s strategy and what moves the monetary policy committee might make next.Find In the City wherever you're listening, and subscribe.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we bring you an earlier interview by Merryn Somerset Webb of Bloomberg's Merryn Talks Money, originally recorded in November 2021 as part of the MoneyWeek podcast. It's a conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy, author of Woke, Inc., biotech entrepreneur and a far-right candidate for the 2024 Republican Party nomination. We're republishing it because the populist themes discussed in the interview, like "woke capitalism" and "boycott culture," are back in the news. And so is Ramaswamy himself.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is it time to get out of passive funds and switch to their active brethren? Or should you dump equities entirely and find a nice savings account that pays 4%? While the latter means you won’t be maintaining the real value of your capital, at least you won’t lose too much of it. And what of silver or gold, or perhaps even Bitcoin? If you had to choose one, which would it be? And, just to ask, how angry should UK investors be with the Bank of England for forcing them to think about all of this? Or that the central bank left quantitative tightening too late and lost a fortune on their bond portfolio? In this special ask-us-anything episode of Merryn Talks Money, host Merryn Somerset Webb and senior reporter John Stepek try, with the help of reporters Joe Easton and Eddie Spence and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Marcus Ashworth, to give some answers. No one chose Bitcoin over real money and no one stepped up to defend the Bank of England. But there wasn’t 100% agreement on the rest. Listen in for the conflicts, some summer reading suggestions—and a few reasons why you should watch the Barbie movie.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King says the central bank hasn’t been covering itself in glory of late, and that’s partly thanks to it falling victim to groupthink. The economics profession is jammed with brilliant people, he argues on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, but unfortunately, they’ve all been taught the same thing: money has absolutely nothing to do with inflation.Believing that was a “big mistake,” King says it’s brought the UK economy to where it is: inflation at multi-decade highs and the BOE having its credibility questioned.  According to King, it’s likely that—despite all money supply indicators signaling the consumer price index will soon be falling fast—the BOE will keep raising rates and the UK will end up in a recession. The central bank will have made the misstep “in both directions over a period of three to four years.” He points out that whether rates go up or down a little over the next year won’t change the fact that they are likely to remain far above the historical lows to which people are accustomed. And that suggests all asset prices are going to have to come down relative to income.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation in the US is going to continue falling, says founder of Intertemporal Economics Brian Pellegrini, and much faster than one might think. He joins Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money to share his predictions. Indeed, the rate of inflation will drop so quickly that it will unnerve the US Federal Reserve, he says. Pellegrini contends signs of the decline can be seen in inventory levels, factory prices in China and the labor market. He argues that it’s also reasonable to think the Fed will turn to monetary easing in the not-too-distant future, claiming the central bank has become politicized. Going forward, he warns that if interest rates stay too low this time around, there’s every chance of another inflation explosion. So what should investors do? Pellegrini says look at energy and look at agriculture. And if you ever have to choose between gold or Bitcoin, choose gold, he says. We can be almost certain people will still value gold in a decade, says Pellegrini. We can’t say that about Bitcoin.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A decade ago, it was almost impossible for private investors to buy into private equity with the professionals. Most PE funds require huge minimum investments and long-term commitments. Good managers also don’t come cheap. Now, however, there are more ways for private investors to get into the unlisted sector. There are funds and trusts that buy individual private companies alongside listed ones, but there are also a few dedicated listed PE trusts.One of them is Pantheon International. In this week’s Merryn Talks Money, Helen Steers, a partner in Pantheon’s European Investment Team and co-manager of its listed global PE investment trust, Pantheon International Plc, joins host Merryn Somerset Webb to discuss the merits of the sector. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The idea that history is cyclical is hardly new. But exactly what drives those cycles is up for debate. On this week’s Merryn Talks Money, Peter Turchin, author of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration, suggests he’s solved the puzzle.  Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Bank of England has a vision for the digital pound. But first, it has to decide whether “Britcoin” is worth building in the first place. The BOE wants to make a cash-like alternative to the banknote—an instrument that works like cash and holds its value but won’t accrue interest or become a tool of speculators. Right now, the bank is seeking input from Britons on whether such a central bank digital currency, or CBDC, can work or even makes sense. The period during which the BOE will take submissions began Feb. 7 and ends this week on June 30. At that point, the bank will evaluate all the advice it’s received and spend the next few years evaluating the technology and policy requirements before making a final decision. The person leading those efforts is Tom Mutton, head of the central bank’s CBDC project. Reporter Emily Nicolle spoke to Mutton about the BOE’s plans and you can hear some of that conversation on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money. Nicolle joins hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and Senior Reporter John Stepek to explain what a CBDC is, why the BOE sees value in developing one and what privacy concerns are being raised. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Active fund management isn’t just about maximizing upside for your shareholders, says Gervais Williams, head of equities at Premier Miton Investors. It’s also about minimizing downside risk. On this week’s Merryn Talks Money with Merryn Somerset Webb, he lays out just how to do that. Plus John Stepek joins to discuss the Bank of England's rate hike and inflation expectations. Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There’s a material world people don’t think about all that often. It’s the one that provides the raw metals and chemicals that keep economies and societies moving. But, as Ed Conway, the economics editor of Sky News and author of Material World, says, people need to start thinking about it a lot. He joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money to discuss the six materials that shape our lives, and how they will continue to do so for some time to come.  Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s fair to say that Japan is back and that its deflationary years are arguably behind it. The Asian nation may also be in just the right place to win big on today’s shifting geopolitical landscape. Japan is full of high-quality companies, its stock market just hit a 33-year high, and overseas buying exploded last month. But despite these advantages, Japan’s market is still remarkably cheap. This according to David Mitchinson, fund manager at Zennor Asset Management, who joins Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money to explain why this rally in Tokyo’s equity market is longer-lived than previous rallies, and why the excitement around Japan is different this time. Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The British government is woefully incompetent, says Burnbrae Chairman Jim Mellon. But of course that doesn’t mean you can’t buy UK equities. Mellon tells Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money that fossil fuel giants Shell and BP are good long-term investments, as are British defense stocks and financial services companies.  Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Famed contrarian investor Rob Arnott, co-founder of Research Affiliates, has said since the autumn of 2020 that UK shares are a great bargain—in particular so-called value stocks. In a conversation with Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money, he contends that’s still the case. The 2020s may be the “the decade for diversifiers,” he says—those prepared to move out of mainstream stocks and bonds and into assets that haven’t been talked about.  Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation will eventually come down, but not rapidly or in the way it would have in previous years. So says Sharon Bell, managing director and senior European equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. She tells Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money that the reason for this state of affairs is specifically the tight labor market, and more broadly the demographics of the Western world.Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthWanted — your questions. Merryn and John will be doing an AMA (Ask Me/Us Anything) session at 1pm on May 24 — which also happens to be the day the UK’s next monthly inflation data reading comes out — over on the UK Markets Today blog. So what do you want to ask us? Send your questions to jstepek2@bloomberg.net. The earlier you send them, the better the odds you’ll get a sensible answer.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Are we getting to the point where central banks are starting to break economies?Dario Perkins, Managing Director on the Global Macro team at TS Lombard, asks that question in his conversation this week with Merryn Somerset Webb on Merryn Talks Money. He says central banks are losing control of their own tools, and that policymakers may drive their economies into recession. Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investment trusts are special, says Simon Elliott, client director at J.P. Morgan Investment Trusts. They have a strong history of outperforming other types of investment vehicles. They provide pools of genuinely permanent long-term capital. They come with boards of directors whose specific job is to look out for investors. And on this week’s Merryn Talks Money, Elliott argues that, right now, an awful lot of them look like bargains.Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dambisa Moyo is an economist and board member of Chevron and 3M. She’s also author of the 2018 book Edge of Chaos. In this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, Moyo and host Merryn Somerset Webb discuss whether the world has finally slipped off the edge.  Moyo says it feels that way. Most economies were already stagnating before the pandemic struck, she says. Growth was trending downwards, productivity was a problem and it was hard to see how countries could all grow their GDPs at 3% a year.Now there’s a new and urgent question, she says: what to do with people who won’t have work in an AI dominated economy. It won’t be long before pretty much every country—even the UK—has too many workers, she warns. There are, however, some easy wins Britain can notch, she says. Namely, lowering taxes and loosening regulations. The UK has gotten a bad rap thanks to Brexit and political uncertainty, Moyo says, but that doesn’t mean it can’t take advantage of its intellectual base and prime location. Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth And as promised, Baroness Moyo's Maiden Speech.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There’s not much you can do right now to dramatically improve your personal finances. But there’s at least one thing you can get on top of: cash savings accounts. You can now get 3 or 4% a year on your money if you look around. Take the easy win and move, says Simon Edelsten, manager of the Artemis Global Select fund, on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money.  This shift is symptomatic of the change in all markets, he explains. Rising rates are good for cash savers (although 4% doesn’t totally cut it when inflation is 10%), but they’re horrible for other sectors of the financial world. There are many unexploded bombs out there, he says, noting you may want to keep your eyes on the private equity sector.Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

During the Panic of 1907, J.P. Morgan came up with a clever plan to slow the ongoing bank run. He told his tellers to count all the money twice before handing it over. The more time paying out the cash took, the more time there was to work on rebuilding confidence before money ran out. Of course, that kind of tactic can’t work anymore, Ruffer Investment Director Duncan MacInnes explained on this week’s Merryn Talks Money. Now, he says, people can use the internet to move money anywhere anytime in the blink of an eye, a fact the world witnessed in real time last month. “This,” MacInnes says, was “not your grandfather’s bank run.” But he adds that, for savers, it doesn’t really matter. Governments are standing by to protect depositors to the hilt. What you do need to worry about is the risk elsewhere. In the last decade, everyone has jumped up the risk curve in a desperate effort to make returns, MacInnes says. He’s seen those who once only invested in public markets move to private, those who used to do private equity go to venture capital—and the venture capitalists move to crypto. Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sebastian Lyon says he’d been expecting inflation to rise for a long time. So when prices began to tick up, his firm was ready. Now the founder and chief investment officer of Troy Asset Management says be prepared for inflation to stick around awhile. Lyon says rates can still fall, and not every part of the economy that thrived in a low-interest environment will run into trouble. So what’s at risk? He says housing, growth stocks, bonds and banks for starters. In terms of protecting investor wealth, Lyon echoes others by suggesting gold.Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

British pension funds used to have up to 55% of their assets in UK equities. That might have been too much. Now it’s more like 5% (and 70% in US equities). That might be too little. Why? Because those UK equities are cheap and US equities are expensive, explains Temple Bar Investment Trust Portfolio Manager Ian Lance on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money. He also argues that there’s an inverse correlation between the price you pay for an equity and the return you get on it long term. The less you pay, the more you get. So why are most investors holding lots of expensive things and not many cheap things? It is the “maddest thing in markets,” he says. Maybe it’s time to do something else: Lance says buy UK oil and mining companies—and maybe Marks & Spencers, too. Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In an earlier episode of Merryn Talks Money, reporter Neil Callanan joined the podcast to talk house prices. It’s fair to say his outlook for the UK housing market was not optimistic. It is, he said, entirely possible that prices across the UK will end this cycle down 40% in real terms (adjusted for inflation). This week, Bloomberg Opinion writer Marcus Ashworth joined Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek to make a different case. He contends that the mortgage rates actually paid by buyers are nothing like the ones you see on the panicked pages of Sunday newspapers. Not only that, but UK planning rules have kept supply far too tight, he argues, turning it into a “cash-led” market.Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthAnd sign up to be in the audience of our live podcast taping at Bloomberg Invest: Strategies For Wealth Creation: bloom.bg/3kTCmbH See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world has been mired in a new Cold War for at least four years, according to Niall Ferguson, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and Milbank Family Senior Fellow. Ferguson joins this episode of Merryn Talks Money to discuss the implications for inflation, the Federal Reserve and how investors should navigate the current economic climate. Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthAnd sign up to be in the audience of our live podcast taping at Bloomberg Invest: Strategies For Wealth Creation: bloom.bg/3kTCmbH See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation isn’t heading back to 2%, according to Pippa Malmgren, author and former adviser to President George W. Bush. She says it’s more likely to stay around 4 to 5%. Why? Malmgren contends that it’s because the main problem facing economies today is tied to supply and demand, and that means traditional inflation-fighting tools won’t really work. Malmgren joins this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money to talk inflation targets, geopolitics and Britain's future in space. Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthAnd sign up to be in the audience of our live podcast taping at Bloomberg Invest: Strategies For Wealth Creation: bloom.bg/3kTCmbH See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The industry of providing people with investment advice has been around for a long time. Just how long is the subject of this week’s Merryn Talks Money. Host Merryn Somerset Webb speaks with Peter Knight and Helen Paul, two of the five authors of Invested: How Three Centuries of Stock Market Advice Reshaped Our Money, Markets and Minds. The new work is a review of centuries of pamphlets and books offering investment advice, and the authors didn’t come away very impressed. Too much of it, they write, offers false hope to an audience desperate to change themselves and their lives without putting in the work. Want to get rich quick? Knight says don’t bother with the actual investing—just write a best-selling book telling others how to do it. The authors say much of the advice doled out by generations of writers is remarkably similar: look for value, don’t pay too much in commissions, don’t over-trade, and don’t fall for fanciful stories. Common sense, in other words.Sign up to John Stepeker's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthAnd sign up to be in the audience of our live podcast taping at Bloomberg Invest: Strategies For Wealth Creation: bloom.bg/3kTCmbH See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The UK housing market is not in a good place. Mortgage rates are up, buyers are disappearing and so are sellers. The former don’t want to dump money in a falling market, and they can’t afford mortgages at current prices anyway. The latter don’t want to accept that prices are falling in the first place. The result? A standoff. And that means the number of transactions are dropping. And while prices aren’t sinking very fast right now, what happens when sellers can’t hold out any longer? If the past is any guide, prices will fall very fast indeed—just like they did in the early 1990s. How far and how fast? In this week’s episode of the podcast Merryn Talks Money, Senior Editor Neil Callanan and Senior Reporter John Stepek join Merryn Somerset Webb to discuss the scope of the potential implosion. There are an awful lot of vested interests out there insisting that prices won’t fall more than 10%, but without government intervention, they warn prices may drop as much as 40%. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For a fund manager with a belief in value, 2021 was as discombobulating a year as they come, says Ben Inker, co-head of GMO’s asset allocation team. Valuations went to insane levels across all markets, and there was nothing you could buy or hold that was cheap enough to offer real long-term returns. But the good news according to Inker is that an awful lot of froth came out of the market last year. Prices went down and inflation went up. Add those together and a lot of markets were down 25% plus in real terms, he says.Inker joins Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money  to explain that, for the first time in several years, it’s possible to find assets with “compelling valuations.” There could be more nastiness to come in the most expensive markets, he warns, but the opportunity set going into 2023 is far better than it was a year ago. Plus, John Stepek and Merryn discuss was she calls one of the best books she's ever read. Sign up for John's daily newsletter Money Distilled: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealthSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation isn’t going away. Why? Because governments can’t let it. So says market historian Russell Napier, who on this episode of Merryn Talks Money tells host Merryn Somerset Webb that, with the global debt-to-GDP ratio at an historic high, using inflation to eat away at the real value of debt is the only escape route. What that means, Napier says, is that for the first time in a long time politics will matter most to markets. Napier also shares his ideas on how investors can navigate this new environment. He says market indices may fall, but mentions some equities that he says will still make investors real money. Which ones? Tune in to find out. And Money Distilled's finest John Stepek joins to talk about why dividends are due a comeback. Check out his daily newsletter here:https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

James Ferguson, founder of MacroStrategy Partners, isn’t worried about inflation this year. Instead, he sees the beginnings of deflation. On this week’s Merryn Talks Money, he tells host Merryn Somerset Webb that it’s purely a matter of remembering what the monetarists said: Print money and (with a long and variable lag) you will get inflation; Yank money out of the economy (as the US Federal Reserve is doing) and you will get the opposite. According to Ferguson, there will be deflation by April. Plus, John Stepek joins Merryn for a passionate chat about pensions. Yes, it can be done. An extended version of that chat can be heard here: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1PlJQpeNWZqGE?s=20And of course, sign up for John Stepek's  daily newsletter: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pictet Chief Strategist Luca Paolini says that while there’s a lot to be negative about these days, things aren’t as bad as they seem—even in the UK. He joins Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money to explain why things are looking up there and elsewhere. There’s also a chance there could be more happy surprises in 2023. According to Paolini, a ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine would be a massive positive economically—one that could see commodity prices and interest rates fall, as well as a European boom. And when it comes to other investments, Paolini says avoid crypto but move some money into bonds. As for stocks, he advises think emerging markets—and don’t forget gold.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Not many investment trusts made a positive return last year. The Ruffer Investment Company did -- partly by using strategies not open to the retail investor but also using ones that are. In this week’s Merryn Talks Money, the firm’s Investment Director Alexander Chartres talks host Merryn Somerset Webb through what worked for Ruffer in 2022 and what might work in 2023. Chartres’s key point is the world has changed. He says the global economy is in the process of being “fully rewired,” which means investors must reconsider the fundamentals behind all of their investments. He also says China is changing; there are hot and cold wars on the go all over the world: big BIG government is back; and there is financial repression ahead — so maybe buy some gold.Sign up for John's daily newsletter Money Distilled: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Smaller UK companies were among the worst performing assets in the world last year. That made 2022 a tough time for small cap fund managers. But small caps very rarely see two down years in a row, says Anna Macdonald, fund manager at Amati. She joins host Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money. Macdonald shares her suggestions for the stocks to buy in this kind of environment—think trains, hospital software and specialty lenders.Plus, senior reporter John Stepek joins to discuss Rishi Sunak's five pledges for British voters to hold him to. Sign up for John's newsletter Money Distilled here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Harry Nimmo, one of the most successful investors in smaller UK companies over the past three decades, is retiring from asset manager Abrdn at the end of this month. But that didn’t stop him from predicting a recovery for the sector within six months. In this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, Nimmo reflects on his life in investing and how it has informed his outlook for the future. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Slater, co-manager of the UK’s most popular investment trust, Scottish Mortgage, joins this week's episode of Merryn Talks Money. Shares in the trust are down 40% year-to-date. What went wrong? Maybe nothing, says Slater. If you want to get real growth, you need to be prepared to pay an “unreasonable price” to get it, and then you need to be prepared for a lot of volatility before any fortunes are made. Plus, senior reporter John Stepek is back -- this time to talk about the British property market. Sign up for John's daily newsletter Money Distilled: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Holding gold? Better load up since it may jump to $3,000 soon. Work in private equity? Maybe get out now: there could be a new tax regime on the way. As for 2% inflation? Not in this "war economy." These are among Saxo Bank’s self-described "outrageous" predictions for the year ahead, which the Danish bank says will see policymakers shift fully into defensive mode. Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen joins Merryn Somerset Webb to discuss projections he says are far less outlandish than the moniker suggests. Plus, senior reporter and Money Distilled author John Stepek is back to share his own prediction for 2023 and rant about crypto.   Sign up to John's daily newsletter Money Distilled: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Merryn Somerset Webb and Bloomberg Wealth senior reporter and author of the daily Money Distilled newsletter John Stepek are reunited to give listeners a taste of what is to come on Merryn Talks Money. They talk investment tools for inflationary times, strategies for managing savings and share their outlooks for the global economy. New episodes start every Friday starting December 9th. From Bloomberg Podcasts.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.