Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I focused on recent news across various sectors:
NEPI Rockcastle just released record distributable earnings per share and Vukile easily raised R1 billion on the local market, so there's demand for offshore property strategies and with good reason - in some cases at least.
Italtile gives us a lot of insight into the start of the local economy and particularly the mindset of higher income earners.
Bidcorp is doing a great job of building its global empire, but margin pressure in the UK is biting.
Spar certainly has its challenges right now, but they seem far easier to overcome than what is happening at Pick n Pay.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
2/26/2024 • 5 minutes, 39 seconds
Ghost Wrap #62 (Sasol | ArcelorMittal | Sappi | Curro | British American Tobacco)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I focused on the recent updates from four clothing retail groups:
Sasol has seen its share price halve over the past year, with the wonderful opportunity for investors in 2020 becoming a very distant memory as infrastructure and other issues take their toll.
ArcelorMittal is perhaps the most severe rollercoaster ride of them all on the JSE, with the steel industry only for those with an exceptionally strong stomach.
Sappi demonstrates that the paper industry is also a tough place to play, with swing traders doing better than long-term holders of this stock.
Curro may be growing its earnings at a solid rate, but the company is still coming to terms with growth that is well below original expectations.
British American Tobacco is now profitable in the non-combustibles business and is still doing what it does best in the traditional smoking business: putting through pricing increases that fund dividends.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
2/12/2024 • 6 minutes, 38 seconds
Ghost Wrap #61 (The Foschini Group | Mr Price | Truworths | Pepkor)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I focused on the recent updates from four clothing retail groups:
The Foschini Group got the market excited about the sector, with strong growth in the local business and encouraging commentary on margins - but the offshore businesses have suffered.
Mr Price also put in promising revenue growth and has a positive gross margin story to tell, with the base effect making a big difference here.
Truworths has struggled in the local business (admittedly vs. a high base), with the UK-based business shooting the lights out - especially when translated to rands.
Pepkor is a perfect example of why credit sales are important for local retailers, with cash sales growth being hard to come by.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I covered these important stories on the local market:
Motus is a great example of how cyclical the used car industry is, with the additional challenge of having costly debt.
Attacq's turnover and footfall update for November and December hass some real nuggets for those interested in the retail sector.
Clicks achieved solid retail sales, but the wholesale side of the business had a wobbly.
Woolworths is struggling with consumer affordability, as sales volumes dropped and so did headline earnings from continuing operations.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
1/23/2024 • 5 minutes, 13 seconds
Ghost Wrap #59 (Merafe | Pick n Pay | Frontier Transport | Tharisa + Northam Platinum)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I covered these important stories on the local market:
Merafe's 2023 production numbers are a good reminder of the importance of not just availability of electricity, but also the cost thereof.
Pick n Pay has a critically important year ahead and Sean Summers has now appointed his executive team - can they save the share price?
Frontier Transport announced a substantial special dividend, rewarding shareholders who dig around on the JSE for cheap shares.
Tharisa and Northam Platinum announced recent production numbers, for the quarter and six months ended December 2023 respectively. Tharisa's share price has been slightly shielded by chrome production in the past year, but both are well down as the PGM market has suffered.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I covered these important stories on the local market:
Tharisa has PGM and chrome operations, which means the company has two levers to pull in response to commodity prices.
enX is selling Eqstra to Nedbank, which has interesting financial and strategic considerations for investors in both those groups.
Thungela can't do much about local infrastructure at Transnet and the negative effect it has, but some clever dealmaking in the Aussie acquisition has paid off.
Italtile is still suffering in an environment where consumers are buying holidays and experiences, not new bathrooms.
Grindrod has a partially mitigating factor when it comes to local infrastructure, holding an indirect stake in the company operating the Maputo port - and that concession is being extended by the Mozambican government.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
12/15/2023 • 5 minutes, 44 seconds
Ghost Wrap #57 (British American Tobacco | Absa + Nedbank | Transaction Capital | Spur | Murray & Roberts)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I recapped five important stories on the local market:
British American Tobacco is seen as a defensive stock, but I have a different view on it.
Absa and Nedbank released updates this week and although Absa's return on equity is likely still ahead of Nedbank, the share price performance this year shows what happens when expectations aren't met.
Transaction Capital is now behaving more like an investment holding company than the integrated, one-team-one-dream business of a few years ago.
Spur is ready to go Italian, with the acquisition of 60% of Doppio Zero having closed and some interesting prospects already on the table.
Murray & Roberts has made great strides in repairing the balance sheet, with an encouraging update that takes a rights issue off the table (for now at least).
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I recapped five important stories on the local market:
Purple Group may be loss-making, but the revenue resilience in a near-impossible year is a strong tick in the box for this story.
Spar has hopefully signed off on the worst year that the company will ever experience, with several own goals and the suspension of dividends.
Pepkor has a reputation as a defensive retailer, but that doesn't seem appropriate based on the underlying businesses.
Bidvest gave the market a fright with its recent commentary about pricing pressure, leading to a sharp correction in the share price.
Attacq is an excellent reminder that the old adage of "location, location, location" applies to REITs as well.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
12/2/2023 • 6 minutes, 40 seconds
Ghost Wrap #55 (Mr Price | Southern Sun vs. City Lodge | Sirius Real Estate | African Rainbow Capital | Sibanye-Stillwater)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I recapped five important stories on the local market:
Mr Price released results that I felt were rather poor, yet the market took the stock over 8% higher by the close on the day of release. Either I'm wrong, or the market is wrong. Listen to my reasoning and decide for yourself.
Southern Sun and City Lodge are enjoying a resurgence in demand for hotel rooms, with the former doing as well as I expected and the latter surprising me to the upside.
Sirius Real Estate executed a successful capital raise on the market, demonstrating that investors are highly supportive of the strategy.
African Rainbow Capital has made sure once and for all that I'll never touch the company with my money, as the latest capital raise is highly painful for minority shareholders.
Sibanye-Stillwater incurred the wrath of investors with the news of a convertible bond capital raise, but did the market overreact to this news?
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I recapped five important stories on the local market:
NEPI Rockcastle is seen as one of the better REITs on the local market and a recent update shows why.
MultiChoice is in for a long journey with Showmax, at a time when the rest of the business is facing substantial other challenges.
Santam is focused on repricing risk, which means upward pressure on short-term insurance premiums across the industry.
Shoprite is doing an exceptional job of growing volumes, with further market share gains that look especially impressive when compared to a competitor like Woolworths.
Richemont saw sales drop in the Americas region and margins are under pressure across the board, so is the online side of the business proving to be a distraction?
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
11/18/2023 • 5 minutes, 57 seconds
Ghost Wrap #53 (Bell Equipment | MTN | AVI | Truworths | De Beers)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I recapped five important stories on the local market:
Bell Equipment can take a bow, with a trading statement showing very strong earnings growth and a few weeks left this year to still achieve a further positive earnings surprise.
MTN is a casualty of African currency weakness, which makes it vulnerable to further dollar strength and a slow Chinese recovery - complicated look-through exposures that are important to understand.
AVI is achieving reasonable revenue growth at the moment, with a focus on margins paying off for the company.
Truworths has demonstrated just how tough the SA consumer retail environment still is, with the UK business saving the day.
De Beers has experienced another sharp drop in sales, with a perfect storm of macroeconomic challenges and cheaper lab-grown diamonds clearly visible in the numbers.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I recapped five important stories on the local market:
MTN's African subsidiaries are causing headaches right now, with Uganda as the silver lining but too small to make up for the concerns in the others.
Woolworths is acquiring Absolute Pets and it's a deal that makes a lot of strategic sense to me.
Pepkor is seen as a defensive retailer in South Africa, but does that thesis hold these days?
Octodec has growth its distribution per share despite a drop in distributable income - what does this tell us about REITs at the moment?
AB InBev must be cheering on the Springbok celebrations, as beer volumes have been under pressure this year.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
11/4/2023 • 5 minutes, 55 seconds
Ghost Wrap #51 (Santova | Spear REIT | Bytes Technology | Super Group | Clicks)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I recapped five important stories on the local market:
Santova is a reminder that even the best cyclical companies are still subject to big moves in these markets.
Spear REIT is one of the most respected property funds on the local market, but debt costs are biting.
Bytes Technology is an excellent example of how you can give your money a passport right here on the JSE.
Super Group has had a really successful debt raise on the JSE, which is good news for shareholders as the cost of debt directly impacts equity returns.
Clicks has put in a decent performance in this financial year, but I remain weary of paying top dollar for a business that can still be disrupted.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
10/27/2023 • 5 minutes, 23 seconds
Ghost Wrap #49 (Famous Brands vs. Spur | Sibanye-Stillwater | De Beers | Mondi | Life Healthcare | Datatec | Fortress)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your regular update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I recapped a week's worth of news across a variety of sectors:
Famous Brands vs. Spur is becoming a very interesting battle indeed, with the latter as my pick.
Sibanye-Stillwater has given the green light to the next phase of the Keliber lithium project.
De Beers is really struggling with demand for diamonds at the moment.
Mondi has managed to exit Russia, with letters of credit securing the final two payments from the buyer of the asset.
Life Healthcare announced a deal for Alliance Medical Group, reflecting what looks to me like a modest investment return on that asset since 2016
Datatec is proof that you can find fast-growing companies on the local market, if you know where to look.
Fortress has proposed a rather clever way to get rid of the dual-class structure in its shares, by using a portion of its stake in NEPI Rockcastle.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I looked at some of the more interesting stories in a busy few days of news.
Rex Trueform has been rather dreary, but the latest acquisition is objectively exciting.
Barloworld remains a great way to compare industrial business fundamentals to consumer-facing fundamentals, with a particularly shocking outcome when comparing profit trajectory in Russia vs. the local consumer business.
Spar's latest results were boosted by the weak rand, with the group now deciding to exit Poland and focus on the core business.
Capitec is under pressure on the HEPS line, with the efficiency ratio needing to be interpreted very carefully.
After negative recent outlooks from major property companies, it's encouraging to see expectations of growth from Vukile and Attacq.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
10/2/2023 • 6 minutes, 59 seconds
Ghost Wrap #47 (Capital Appreciation vs. PBT Group | Mustek | Bidvest | Hyprop vs. Growthpoint | Astral Foods and Quantum Foods | Trellidor | Southern Sun vs. City Lodge)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I looked at some of the more interesting stories in a busy few days of news.
Capital Appreciation's share price has done anything but appreciate this year, with sector peer PBT Group also under pressure.
Mustek is proof of how low expectations can help in this environment.
Bidvest is executing a bolt-on acquisition in Australia, a traditionally tough market for SA corporates.
Hyprop's outlook for distributable income is as bearish as Growthpoint's outlook, yet the share price performances are completely different because of relative valuation.
Astral Foods is in a perfect storm for the poultry industry, just like sector peer Quantum Foods.
Trellidor gave earnings guidance that really disappointed the market.
Southern Sun shows that swimming with the tide is much easier than swimming against it, with City Lodge finding things are a lot harder in its traditionally business-focused hotel footprint.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I looked at some of the more interesting stories in a busy few days of news.
Libstar is a great reminder of why I'm bearish on SA consumer stocks.
Gemfields has reminded the market that the risks extend beyond just the rubies.
FirstRand isn't aiming for heroics in this environment, but the share price is demanding more growth.
Metair could well be the unluckiest company on the local market.
Growthpoint is a perfect example of how tough things are in the property sector right now.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
9/19/2023 • 6 minutes, 1 second
Ghost Wrap #45 (Bell Equipment | Transaction Capital | Capitec | Caxton & CTP | City Lodge | Sun International)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I looked at some of the more interesting stories in a busy few days of news.
Bell Equipment has released really strong results, but watch the cash.
Transaction Capital's nightmares continue, with news of the departure of David Hurwitz and underlying earnings in a tough spot, sending the share price back below R6.
Capitec found some love in the market despite modest HEPS growth.
Caxton & CTP is a tale of two segments right now, with heavily discounted look-through exposure to Mpact making it interesting.
City Lodge's occupancies are higher, but the market is looking for pricing power and that is lacking.
Sun International's resorts and hotels segment boosted the group in the latest result, with gaming revenue also moving higher.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
9/12/2023 • 5 minutes, 45 seconds
Ghost Wrap #44 (Bowler Metcalf | City Lodge | Shoprite | The Foschini Group | Bidvest | AVI)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I looked at some of the more interesting stories in a busy few days of news.
Bowler Metcalf is evidence of how share buybacks can turn financial water into wine.
City Lodge was permanently damaged by the pandemic, but at least the company is profitable again.
Shoprite's astonishing performance was blunted by Eskom, which means share price performance is also well off where it should be.
The Foschini Group's trading update reflects the impact of pressure on like-for-like sales, a drop in gross margin and debt on the recent acquisition.
Bidvest's second half of the financial year was all about generating cash, which was helpful for the dividend payout ratio.
AVI's results look good provided you exclude I&J, which tells us something about the different segments in the group.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I looked at some of the more interesting stories in a busy few days of news.
Cher once asked us if we believe in life after love. I'm not sure about that, but we can believe in life after REIT based on the latest numbers from Fortress.
The recent results from Truworths need a careful read based on important and justifiable adjustments, with the core results revealing a decent period for the company.
Load shedding really hurts food retail, as evidenced by comparing Woolworths' Food business to its Fashion, Beauty and Home business.
Bidcorp's numbers for the year ended June are practically faultless.
Cashbuild is in a perfect storm right now, with ongoing difficulties in this trading environment.
KAP may need to rebrand to KLAP, because that's exactly what the company got given in the latest period by Safripol and Unitrans.
Motus is a reminder that you always need to read to the bottom of the income statement, with finance costs eating up growth in operating profit.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
9/4/2023 • 6 minutes, 58 seconds
Ghost Wrap #42 (Super Group | Grindrod | ADvTECH | STADIO | CA Sales Holdings | Transpaco | Master Drilling)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover only good news on the local market - isn't that refreshing? An entire podcast of good news!
Super Group is living up to its name and with growth in profit in every segment, there's much for shareholders to feel good about here.
Grindrod is in a different part of the logistics industry, yet the growth numbers are remarkably similar to Super Group.
In the education sector, we've seen strong updates from ADvTECH and STADIO, with both shares prices ahead of rival Curro this year.
CA Sales Holdings is getting on with delivering its strategy to a high standard, with the FMCG business doing well in this inflationary environment.
Transpaco is a great example of what happens when small improvements are made in operating margin.
Master Drilling is as close to the shovel in the gold rush as you'll find, with ongoing HEPS growth at a time when mining houses are seeing HEPS fall sharply.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, we recap:
Strong results at Spur that gave the share price another boost on top of the strong positive response to the trading statement.
Earnings growth at Adcock Ingram that benefitted from a "normal" flu season, although other segments were perhaps disappointing for investors.
An excellent year thus far for Bidvest, supported by strong earnings growth and clear evidence of pricing power.
Continued momentum at Bidcorp, which has gone from strength to strength since the depths of the pandemic.
NEPI Rockcastle's appeal as a play on Central and Eastern Europe, a region of real economic growth and demand for retail space.
A whirlwind update on recent mining and resources updates from DRDGOLD, Harmony Gold, BHP and Sasol.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, we recap:
Aveng's poor recent results and the volatility in the share price around the time of the earnings release.
Curro's solid year-on-year growth, driven mainly by pricing increases in tuition fees.
Libstar's substantial drop in HEPS, with mushroom production as the biggest problem after the Shongweni facility was destroyed.
Transpaco's encouraging trading statement, putting another tick in the box for the packaging sector this year.
Standard Bank's massive jump in earnings, with the African regions shining through.
Various mining sector updates that are almost all negative, including Thungela, Exxaro, Sibanye, Gold Fields and Master Drilling.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
8/21/2023 • 5 minutes, 15 seconds
Ghost Wrap #39 (Grindrod | Impala Platinum | Merafe | Resilient | NEPI Rockcastle | Santam | Sun International)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this episode of Ghost Wrap, we recap a busy couple of days:
It's hard to find companies doing well in this environment, but Grindrod is one of them - if only the share price would notice!
As expected, there's a further trading statement from Impala Platinum about just how bad things are.
Merafe is doing very well, bucking the trend in the mining industry and continuing to trade at a dirt cheap multiple.
In property, the trajectory locally and in Western Europe (represented by Resilient) is completely different to Central and Eastern Europe (NEPI Rockcastle)
Base effects are important, as evidenced by looking at Santam and Sun International's latest numbers and comparing their through-the-cycle returns.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we catch up on the public holiday week and the start of the new week across various sectors:
In banking, Nedbank and Absa both released earnings that reflect a deteriorating credit outlook, particularly in retail banking in portfolios like home loans.
In mining, the cycle has turned ugly for most players, with Exxaro, Northam Platinum, Sasol and Glencore as the latest examples.
In telecoms, Vodacom's fibre ambitions have hit a regulatory hurdle and MTN seems to have put together an exciting Fintech deal with Mastercard, announced alongside its earnings
In building materials and home improvement, Cashbuild is taking a lot of strain and Italtile is also in the red, with consumer discretionary spending disappearing into inflationary pressures and higher interest payments.
Finally, Nampak needs a R1bn rights offer to appease its lenders, along with disposals of non-core assets worth R2.6bn.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we play rock paper scissors (well, almost):
Rock: AngloGold, Pan African Resources and Impala Platinum showing us that times are tough in mining.
Paper: Mondi and Sappi reflecting highly cyclical numbers, with Mpact delivering really strong results in this period.
Scissors: a sharp set of numbers came in from Spur and Standard Bank.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap, your twice-weekly update on the most interesting company news in the South African market.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Challenges in the gold sector, with AngloGold, Sibanye-Stillwater and even Gold Fields releasing tough announcements. At least Pan African Resources had a good news story this week.
The telecoms sector and difficulties in that space, with MTN and Telkom facing different but equally serious issues.
The critical importance of the Bundu Power acquisition to Ellies, without which the business really is in doubt.
Curro's surprisingly good earnings update, despite facing such obvious pressures in the economy.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
8/2/2023 • 5 minutes, 12 seconds
Ghost Wrap #35 (Woolworths | Shoprite | Liberty Two Degrees | Spur | AVI | British American Tobacco | Anglo American | ArcelorMittal)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Woolworths reported solid numbers that seemed to be in line with market expectations.
Shoprite has blown competitors away with exceptional growth across the LSM curve.
Liberty Two Degrees is only a happy story if you're a recent investor, giving us another excellent example of why buying the "hype" sector (in this case property on the JSE in 2015 - 2017) is so dangerous.
Spur is buying a 60% stake in Doppio Zero, a restaurant group that has grown spectacularly over the past two decades.
AVI is proof that consumers will cut back on many things, but not on biscuits and snacks.
British American Tobacco is still growing profits, albeit very slowly.
Anglo American shows just how quickly a mining cycle can change, with a 55% drop in HEPS.
ArcelorMittal is the ultimate basket of risks: single-commodity exposure, high operating leverage and plenty of debt as well!
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
7/30/2023 • 8 minutes, 29 seconds
Ghost Wrap #34 (Richemont | ArcelorMittal | Pick n Pay | Truworths | Mr Price | Super Group | Northam Platinum | Vodacom)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Richemont suffered a significant sell-off after releasing numbers that showed negative growth in the Americas.
ArcelorMittal experienced incredible volatility after releasing a trading update that anticipates a substantial headline loss per share.
Pick n Pay also had a volatile week and is also expecting an interim loss, with pressure on sales in the core business and large once-off costs in this period.
Truworths experienced a slowdown in sales in the second half of the financial year in the Africa business, with the UK making up for it with a strong second half.
Mr Price is having a tough time, with slow sales growth excluding Studio 88 and clear pressure on margins.
Super Group is investing in the UK, with the acquisition of a 78.82% stake in the Amco business.
Northam Platinum is throwing in the towel on the Royal Bafokeng Platinum stake, accepting the offer from Impala Platinum and locking in roughly a R4 billion loss in the process.
Vodacom is growing revenue at mid-single digits, yet capital expenditure is growing at a much higher rate.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Bell Equipment gave investors the shock of a CEO resignation and the great news of strong earnings growth, all in the same week!
Invicta has been busy with offshore acquisitions, with two voluntary announcements this week.
Tharisa's quarterly production update is a reminder of why having both PGM and chrome exposure is useful.
Sasol is on the wrong side of air quality regulators, which will surely be costly for investors.
RMB Holdings is in a complicated battle with Atterbury over its balance sheeet.
Accelerate Property Fund gave the market the bad news of the distribution falling away, with the fund having to focus on its balance sheet.
Bytes Technology Group is still growing strongly, although the market is pricing that in.
Absa guided low-single digit HEPS growth for the six months to June, a result that was severely impacted by a jump in the credit loss ratio.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Spear REIT released encouraging first quarter metrics overall, but the company certainly isn't immune from the broader macroeconomic challenges despite being focused on the Western Cape.
Attacq has agreed terms with the Government Employees' Pension Fund (GEPF) for the acquisition of a 30% stake in Attacq's Waterfall portfolio.
AngloGold's restructure into a NYSE-listed group doesn't come cheap, with advisory fees of over R1.1 billion!
Brikor has decided to focus on its core brickmaking business, with TCQ Mining taking responsibility for the coal operations and giving Brikor a more stable return on them.
Mondi is a step closer to getting out of Russia, with the Gotek Group deal completed and the sale of Syktyvkar still needing to be achieved.
Sappi is discussing the future of the Stockstadt Mill with various stakeholders in Germany, as the company doesn't believe that the facility can be sold as a going concern.
Telkom's board has rejected the proposal from Afrifund, Axian and the PIC - the consortium led by ex-CEO Sipho Maseko.
RCL Foods has suffered a R234 million knock from a special levy by the South African Sugar Association, a direct result of Tongaat Hulett not paying its levies anymore.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
AECI is all about good chemistry, but the German business truly is the wurst.
Argent Industrial has officially reached gatvol status, with scathing commentary of government in the latest results and a strategy focused on offshore growth.
Hudaco has taken a more mature response in its criticism of government, with ongoing investment in South Africa.
PBT Group shows that margin pressure isn't just found in the industrial sector, with the "sale of time" proving to be more difficult in this environment.
Invicta has a significant disparity between HEPS growth and dividend growth, warranting a closer look at the income statement.
Hyprop owns some of the best malls in the country and is doing a great job of recouping load shedding costs, with exposure to Central and Eastern Europe as a strong bonus.
Advanced Health is headed for the exit, with the controlling family looking to take the company private via a scheme of arrangement that has delivered a lovely return for those who recently invested.
Naspers and Prosus are masters at the art of distraction, papering over poor results by giving shareholders good news about the cross-holding structure.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Afrimat is acquiring Lafarge South Africa, a deal announcement that came against a backdrop of disappointing recent performance across the local cement industry.
AngloGold is a perfect example of why I think gold stocks are for trading rather than investing.
Harmony Gold is trying to wave the flag for the sector, though the move into copper says something about gold mining in general.
Growthpoint gave the market an honest assessment of near-term performance in this interest rate cycle and the share price took a knock as a result.
Mr Price released a poor set of numbers, raising questions around whether they have lost focus on the core business in a busy period of M&A.
FirstRand and Standard Bank are both rewarding shareholders, with surprisingly different pros and cons in the recent numbers.
Steinhoff has released possibly its final report as a listed company.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
PPC and Sephaku Holdings aren't just good reminders of how tough the cement industry is, but also how poorly South Africa is trailing African peers when it comes to investing in growth and infrastructure.
Trading statements from Naspers and Prosus demonstrate the extent of the value destruction by this management team, with portfolio write-downs as internet valuations have come off since the stimulus-driven cycle.
With significant operational challenges at Spar at exactly the wrong time, the group's dividend is gone and SAP issues desperately need to be resolved.
Alexander Forbes has been an unlikely hero on the JSE since the pandemic, showing the value of proper execution of a solid strategy.
Glencore is still trying to do a deal with Teck Resources in Canada, while casually doing a deal to sell Viterra in exchange for 15% in Bunge Limited and $1 billion in cash.
As predicted, MultiChoice has seen a significant drop performance in South Africa and needs to invest heavily in its business, so the MultiChoice dividend is now a thing of the past.
When it comes to cash flow pressures though, Telkom takes the cake as it fights to stay relevant in response to rapid change in consumer preferences.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
6/18/2023 • 7 minutes, 30 seconds
Ghost Wrap #28 (Bidcorp | Bidvest | MultiChoice | Argent Industrial | Renergen | Capital Appreciation | The Foschini Group)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Bidcorp is achieving record numbers, but the regional split isn't what you might expect.
Bidvest continues to demonstrate the value of pricing power and strong cost management.
MultiChoice is on the wrong side of consumer spending and load shedding, with forex issues in Nigeria as an additional huge headache.
Argent Industrial is a small cap with a big heart, performing well in this environment.
Renergen has secured conditional approval for debt funding, with all eyes now on meeting the conditions.
Capital Appreciation has grown its non-SA revenue strongly, but operating profits have dipped due to heavy investment in headcount.
The Foschini Group rallied after releasing results but not because of good news in the numbers, with a particularly concerning recent trend.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Nedbank's operational update, reflecting strong growth in headline earnings and a warning about further interest rate increases, along with the news of Mike Brown stepping down as CEO.
An awful week for Spar shareholders, with the stock now trading at levels last seen in 2011.
Hudaco's acquisition of the Brigit group of fire protection companies, featuring a surprisingly high valuation multiple.
Tough results at Pepkor and more resilience in the share price than I expected.
Sirius Real Estate refinancing debt and showing an increase in the cost of debt that will be a feature of offshore property funds going forward.
A nasty sell-off in Tiger Brands despite a modest increase in HEPS under difficult circumstances.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
6/4/2023 • 7 minutes, 21 seconds
Ghost Wrap #26 (Pan African Resources | HCI Group | Southern Sun | Datatec | Poultry (Astral + Quantum Foods) | Lewis Group | Trematon)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Pan African Resources shareholders are licking their wounds, with a major sell-off in the share price after a reduction in production guidance.
The Hosken Consolidated Investments (HCI) group of companies reported this week, with a vastly different picture at the mothership vs. underlying listed companies Deneb, eMedia and Frontier Transport.
Southern Sun's earnings tell an interesting story vs. pre-Covid levels, particularly when assessed against occupancy levels.
Datatec has unfortunately found the "adjusted EBITDA" button, a metric that global technology groups just love using.
The poultry sector is in disarray, with Astral and Quantum Foods both reporting horrific drops in profitability despite increasing revenue - and that's before the impact of the avian flu outbreak in April!
Lewis Group can't rely on share buybacks forever, with the trend in cash sales vs. credit sales being cause for concern.
Trematon's intrinsic net asset value per share is under pressure from Generation Education in particular, with worrying metrics in that business.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
5/28/2023 • 7 minutes, 30 seconds
Ghost Wrap #25 (Dis-Chem | Grindrod Shipping | NEPI Rockcastle | Telkom | Nampak | Purple Group | Investec )
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Dis-Chem's latest numbers, including a very concerning second half of the financial year.
The cyclicality of the shipping industry, with the most recent quarterly performance of Grindrod Shipping as a perfect example.
The appeal of property in Eastern Europe, with NEPI Rockcastle generating strong income growth in a country far away from load shedding.
Telkom's gigantic impairments as this technological dinosaur tries hard to avoid an asteroid.
The broken balance sheet at Nampak as the company moves towards what will surely be a very painful rights offer.
At the other end of the rights offer spectrum, the growth story at Purple Group and Sanlam's underwriting of the rights offer.
Investec's powerful performance in the year ended March 2023, particularly in the UK.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Karooooo's latest quarter, which makes it even clearer that management should be focusing on the core Cartrack business.
The ongoing bad luck at Quantum Foods, where the macroeconomic and load shedding issues have now been compounded by the horrors of avian influenza.
RFG Holdings as a good news story in a sea of pain on the JSE, with the business really performing well.
Sappi's cyclical nature and ongoing debt reduction despite a sharp drop in profits.
MTN's margin compression in South Africa and almost all the African subsidiaries, with market concerns over the balance sheet trajectory clear to see in the share price.
Southern Sun riding the wave of a post-COVID travel and tourism recovery, except in Sandton.
Richemont's exceptional results in the core business this year, along with the strength of its direct-to-consumer strategy.
Transaction Capital's latest capitulation in the share price off the back of results.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
5/14/2023 • 8 minutes, 48 seconds
Ghost Wrap #23 (AB InBev | Famous Brands | Calgro M3 | CMH | Astral Foods | Pick n Pay | Santova)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
AB InBev is making a strong case for itself as a more defensive stock than the likes of British American Tobacco.
Famous Brands doesn't think that load shedding is working out well for the group but I disagree - and the latest numbers seem to support my view.
Calgro M3 has released very strong numbers and is using the depressed share price as an opportunity for buybacks.
CMH's profitability has been a high performance machine of note.
Astral Foods is firmly on the wrong side of load shedding, with narrow margins on a good day turning into nearly no margin at all on a bad day.
Pick n Pay is taking serious strain at the moment and the share price has horribly underperformed Shoprite.
Santova is a great example of what gets small cap investors excited.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
5/7/2023 • 7 minutes, 23 seconds
Ghost Wrap #22 (Glencore | Anglo American | Sibanye-Stillwater | Capital Appreciation | MTN Nigeria | Prosus)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Glencore's dealmaking prowess, with the Teck Resources board pressured into giving the company a chance and Glencore executing an unrelated deal in Brazil for aluminium and bauxite assets for good measure.
Anglo American's recent production update and the importance of the Quellaveco asset, along with the year-on-year declines in commodity prices in dollars.
Sibanye-Stillwater's Keliber project in Finland and the support from the Finnish government in the form of out outsized equity investment in the project.
Smart dealmaking from Capital Appreciation in the acquisition of Dariel Solutions, with a deal structure and valuation that seems to make a lot of sense.
MTN's quarterly results in Nigeria, showing the importance of reading ALL the way down the income statement.
The Prosus share buyback programme and the ongoing sale of shares in Tencent.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
5/1/2023 • 9 minutes, 5 seconds
Ghost Wrap #21 (Clicks | Nu-World | Purple Group | Cashbuild | Oceana | Raubex | Mining Production (BHP + Glencore + Merafe + Sasol + Royal Bafokeng) | Standard Bank)
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Clicks is still growing but nowhere near quickly enough to justify the valuation, which explains the mediocre investment performance over five years.
Nu-World really needs Eskom to switch the lights on and leave them on so that more people are encouraged to buy televisions!
Purple Group started the week with great news (the partnership in the Philippines) and ended it with news of a loss-making period.
Spare a thought for Cashbuild - I genuinely don't know what they can do at this point to stop the bleeding.
Oceana is unpredictable to forecast but delivered the goods in this period, with HEPS more than doubling.
Raubex released strong results, with major contributions from unusual places like Australia (where South Africans normally get hurt) and Zimbabwe.
There was a flurry of mining production updates, including BHP Group, Glencore, Merafe, Sasol and Royal Bafokeng Platinum.
Standard Bank is still growing earnings strongly, notwithstanding the positive skew from the timing of the Liberty deal.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It's fast. It's fun. It's informative.
In this week's episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Aveng is a nasty reminder that every construction company is just one bad project away from financial disaster.
PSG Konsult is an excellent business, growing AUM strongly in a year that was poor for markets. As an added kicker, the dividend payout ratio is higher too!
Within Anglo American, De Beers noted that demand for luxury goods in China has picked up. This was echoed internationally by LVMH during the week, with an obvious read-through benefit for Richemont.
Alphamin reported an exceptional quarter, driven by solid production and a major jump in tin prices.
Nobody likes the dentist, except perhaps Universal Partners based on the returns generated in Dentex.
Stor-Age has put together a smart deal in the UK that optimises return on equity.
Sappi needs to find a new buyer for its three European graphic paper mills, after the sale to Aurelius fell through.
Glencore is still trying to woo the board of Teck Resources in Canada, with a revised offer still not finding favour.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.