Epsilon Theory is an exploration of the most powerful force in our social world - narrative. See more at www.epsilontheory.com.
Breaking News #15: Useful Idiots
Over ten countries are currently engaged in hot wars in the Middle East. But you wouldn't know if from the media coverage where what has been going on has received limited attention. In this episode we dig into why that is. We also cover Tucker Carlson's recent interview with Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden's attempts to tackle shrinkflation and airline seating, why politicians from both sides have no interest in addressing the border and the importance of embracing your yellow pants moment.
2/15/2024 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 21 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #27 Panera Lemonade
Panera's in hot water over their charged lemonade. After building their brand on clean and healthy food, they're now facing several lawsuits claiming their lemonade caused permanent heart damage and even death. So what's really going on with the lemonade? And why is the story surrounding it so misleading?
2/9/2024 • 25 minutes, 2 seconds
Breaking News #14: Harvard Material
Harvard has some of the most stringent admission standards of any university. Most people will never have the opportunity to receive a degree from this elite institution. But that doesn't mean you can't obtain your "graduate certificate" in fields like Museum Studies, Social Justice and Digital Storytelling all for the bargain price of $12,880 from the Harvard Extension School. Of course, Harvard won't accept these credits in its main programs and you can't get any federal loans for it, but you can tell your friends that you attended one of the world's elite institutions. In this episode, we discuss how things got to the point in our higher education system where programs like this exist and what can be done to fix it. We also cover the declining narrative of electric vehicles, the challenge of measuring inflation, Vivek Ramaswamy's master plan, 90s alternative music and a lot more.
2/1/2024 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 3 seconds
Breaking News #13: The Curious Case of Claudine Gay
Claudine Gay recently resigned as President of Harvard due to allegations of plagiarism. But the story behind that is far more important than the headline itself and gets at much bigger issues within the academic world, In the episode, we dig into those details. We also discuss what the recently launched ETFs mean for the future of Bitcoin, why attacks of hedge fund managers based on the carried interest deduction are misplaced, whether a soft landing is possible and the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King.
1/18/2024 • 59 minutes, 19 seconds
Breaking News #12: The Aggrieved Trump 2024 Narrative
The news about the election has been heating up recently. But it unfortunately has not revolved around the process of people voting to determine the outcome. The combination of Donald Trump's legal issues and efforts to remove him from the ballot in blue states have dominated the recent election coverage. In this episode, we tackle both of these issues and how they are playing out in narrative world. We also discuss the reporting around the recent ceremony in Iran to mark the anniversary of the death of Qasem Soleimani, why S&P 500 yearly forecasts still exist and what we can learn from Rick Rubin. We also all offer our New Year's resolutions for 2024.
1/4/2024 • 59 minutes, 4 seconds
Women and Risk: A Wall Street Narrative
It is no secret that women are underrepresented in the finance industry. That is especially true with respect to the “risk-taking” roles that people tend to associate with a career on Wall Street. While there are many reasons fort that, one of the primary ones lies in the stories we have been told in the media about women in finance. In this episode, we dig into those stories, how they influence us and how they also may offer us a potential solution to the problem. We also discuss the recent college president testimony in front of congress, Joe Biden’s tweets about inflation, the amazing story of the creator of Barbie and a lot more.
12/21/2023 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 18 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #26: Singin' in the Rain
Movie musicals are a Hollywood staple. A spectacle of dance, emotion, and music. Proving which Hollywood stars are actors only and which are true triple threats. But it turns out a lot of our favorite classics have been keeping some pretty big secrets. Including who's really singing.
12/14/2023 • 30 minutes, 21 seconds
Men of God in the City of Man, Part 4: Epimemetics
Every narrative is built on memes that have evolved and adapted to human culture over centuries.
But some environments change the way that those memes are expressed. The effects can be explosive.
12/13/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 3 seconds
Breaking News #10: The Story of Generative AI | Bringing the Power of Discovery Back to the People
Generative AI has the power to become one of the most significant innovations any of us will see in our lifetimes. In fact, it may already be there. In this episode, we discuss the impact of this new technology on all of us and the world we live in,. We talk about what the technology is, how it works, the risks associated with it and its potential to shift the power of search and discovery from the hands of big tech companies to everyday people. We also discuss Ben's first reader context on Twitter, whether the Rock could win a presidential election, the role of major universities in our society and a lost, but now found Beatles song.
12/6/2023 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 44 seconds
Men of God in the City of Man, Part 3: Memetics
In the same way that genetics governs how physical viruses reproduce within a host, memetics governs how narrative viruses reproduce within a culture.
And the memes which govern our narrative virus are powerful.
12/5/2023 • 2 hours, 1 minute, 11 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #25: Truffle Hunting
Truffles are well known to be one of the rarest, and most expensive, delicacies available. What's not known is the cutthroat world of truffle hunting. Where it's not uncommon to see fraud, theft, sabotage, and even murder.
12/1/2023 • 19 minutes, 16 seconds
Breaking News #9: Hold My Beer
With primary season getting into full swing, there is a lot going on in the political world. Candidates are taking things up a notch with their aggressive tweets and comments to try to stay relevant as a Trump vs. Biden election seems more likely every day. And Trump and Biden themselves seem happy to sit back and stay out of the fray while enjoying their leads in the polls. In this episode, we break down the current state of election 2024. We discuss whether the primaries matter anymore and how things are playing out in narrative world. We also cover why inflation may not have been as low as it seemed in the most recent CPI report, whether Jack's pivot on Jared Kushner is warranted and the benefits of keeping a personal archive.
11/22/2023 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 35 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #24: Hollywood Accounting
We know that Hollywood is a multibillion dollar industry that shows no signs of slowing anytime soon. So then why do so many studios report that their movies failed? Especially when most of these movies are incredibly popular and by all accounts should be financially successful. Well turns out Hollywood has some tricks up their sleeves and, as The Producers taught us, under the right circumstances you can make more money with a flop than a hit.
11/17/2023 • 20 minutes, 40 seconds
Breaking News #8: When Narrative Doesn't Matter | The Israeli Strategy of Total War
People traditionally look at war as something that is fought on a battlefield. And that is certainly true. But it is also fought in the world of narrative. The stories that are told by both the combatants in a war and other parties outside the war with a vested interest in its outcome can play a major role in how it plays out. In this episode, we look at the current Israel Hamas war through a narrative lens and how that is impacting the conflict.
11/9/2023 • 55 minutes, 59 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #23: Mega Disasters
Earthquakes, storms, volcanos, oh my. It seems the earth is always trying to kill us one way or another. These are dangerous powerful spectacles that can literally reshape the world. It’s understandable that we’re so fascinated by them. But why aren’t we afraid of them?
11/2/2023 • 21 minutes, 53 seconds
Breaking News #7: When the Media Failed Us: The Changing Story of the Gaza Hospital Explosion
There was an explosion in the vicinity of a hospital in Gaza. The media immediately began reporting on it. Major newspapers put out front page headlines. Television stations brought on experts to voice their opinions, But there was one major problem: much of the information that was reported as fact turned out to be wrong.
In this episode, we dig into the incident to try to understand what happened in the reporting of this story, why it happened, and what it tells us about the way the media operates in our world today.
10/26/2023 • 47 minutes, 56 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #22: The Narrative of Reality TV
Reality TV is a constant and ever growing part of pop culture. Everyone has a guilty pleasure show that they watch every week. It's created stars and scandals that have gained international attention. It's dominated the small screen for almost 30 years and the line between tv and reality has never been thinner.
10/20/2023 • 21 minutes, 55 seconds
Breaking News #6: Maintaining Optimism in a Polarized Political World
The political world is becoming more polarized by the day. Whether it be on social media, in the news, or in the real world, extreme opinions continue to dominate any attempt to take a more balanced view. In our previous episodes, we have looked at why this is occurring, and why it is likely to get worse before it gets better.
But that doesn't mean we should give up. There are many things those of us who don't want to give in to this polarization can do to better navigate this world and to find like minded people who also feel the same way. In this episode, we explore them and have an honest conversation about how all of us can be better citizens, and better people as the world around us becomes more challenging.
10/12/2023 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 6 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #21: Invasive Species
Invasive species are a known "bad thing". An organism that's introduced to an environment and ruins it. So why don't we do anything about them? Is there anything we can do?
10/5/2023 • 29 minutes, 31 seconds
Breaking News #5: Voldemort 2024! The Biden/Trump Rematch No One Wants
Poll numbers show that the majority of Americans are not happy about the choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump that we are likely to face in the next election. In this episode, we discuss how we got to this point. We look at the embedded problems in our political system that favor incumbents and how it has led us to where we are today. We also look at the political strategy used by incumbents and how they attempt to stave off upstart candidates by altering the system itself.
9/28/2023 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 34 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #20: Airbnb
Airbnb has reshaped how we travel and disrupted the hotel industry. But most of the stories from both guests and hosts reveal nothing but disasters. So what's really going on? What's the real story of Airbnb?
9/21/2023 • 22 minutes, 12 seconds
Breaking News #4: From Ross Perot to RFK Jr – The Evolving Narratives of Political Entrepreneurs
In this episode, we take a deep dive into the tactics and tools used by upstart political entrepreneurs. Our political system is setup to heavily favor incumbents and candidates that are part of the political establishment. This presents an exceptionally difficult challenge for candidates who come from outside of that system. But social media and technology have given upstart candidates more tools at their disposal than they have ever had in history. And they are using them to both gain our votes and influence our opinions. We discuss how they do that and how all of us can maintain clear eyes and full hearts in the midst of their influence.
9/14/2023 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 39 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #19: The Snappiest Place on Earth
We live in a very safe world. And we've worked hard to make it safe. But sometimes we take that safety for granted. And sometimes we think that safety applies even when it really really doesn't.
9/7/2023 • 25 minutes, 4 seconds
Men of God in the City of Man, Part 2: Carriers
Every virus needs carriers to spread. Even a narrative virus.
We can learn a lot from what they have in common.
8/31/2023 • 42 minutes, 38 seconds
Breaking News #3 ESG, Vivek Ramaswamy and The Influence of Political Entrepreneurs
Political entrepreneurs are all around us. They influence what we think. They influence how we think. But we often don't recognize it. In this episode, we pull back the curtain on the world of political entrepreneurs. We explain who they are, what they do and why they do it. We also look at what we can all do to protect ourselves from their influence.
8/31/2023 • 1 hour, 31 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #18: The Bone Wars
The Bone Wars. A decade long battle of ego between two dueling paleontologists. It's a tale of obsession, sabotage, and academic backstabbing. This clash of titans brought new attention to the theory of evolution and helped make dinosaurs the cultural juggernauts we know them as now.
8/24/2023 • 25 minutes, 30 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Men of God in the City of Man, Part 1: Virus
This is a story about a virus and the gain-of-function research that produced it.
It's not what you think.
8/24/2023 • 31 minutes, 3 seconds
Breaking News #2: The Drumbeat of Inflation
High inflation was the story of the investing world in the past couple of years. But that has recently changed. The common knowledge around inflation has now shifted from one that high inflation is here to stay to one that inflation is over. But is that change premature? In this episode, we finish off our discussion from our first episode and head back to narrative world to discuss the current story of inflation and the risks it might present for investors going forward.
8/17/2023 • 50 minutes, 24 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #17: Frances Ethel Gumm and the Wizard of Oz
Harper and Ben finally get a chance to talk about the Wizard of Oz and the not so wonderful behind the scenes production. Of course this was par for the course in the Golden Age of Hollywood as the studio star making system controlled everything. And we do mean everything.
8/10/2023 • 21 minutes, 39 seconds
Breaking News #1: The Water In Which We Swim
Join Ben Hunt, Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand as we break open the news to reveal the nudging language behind the headlines. Media bias is real, but not in the way you think.
In our kick-off episode, Ben, Matt and Jack talk about why we're here - to break open the news reported by mainstream media to reveal the nudging language of narrative and story that drives us. We focus on the reporting of inflation as a perfect example of what we call Fiat News.
8/3/2023 • 56 minutes, 57 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #16: Women in Refrigerators
A revamped Cursed Knowledge is back! This episode, Harper and Ben talk about the all too common trope of killing off female characters to motivate male characters. It's everywhere and it can tell us a lot about how hard it is to capture audience attention.
7/27/2023 • 21 minutes, 10 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: An AI In The City Of God
The City of Man always wins.
The Visigoths always sack Rome. The Vandals always sack Hippo. Augustine always dies in the siege. Bad things always happen to good people ... at scale.
Here's how we use generative AI to flip the script.
4/14/2023 • 39 minutes, 17 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Starry Eyes and Starry Skies
The student loan crisis is a Big Deal. And it is only a part of a Bigger Deal: the Myth of College.
This issue will be front-and-center in the upcoming elections. We will all be handed our very own 'Yay, College' signs to raise high. More often than not, we will be asked to raise them in service of market-distorting policies which will make our problems worse.
2/9/2023 • 28 minutes, 45 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX
The MacGuffin is the object of desire.
It is the thing around which the plot of the story revolves.
Here is the story arc of SBF and FTX, and the MacGuffin that anchored it all - the Magical Money Machine.
12/6/2022 • 47 minutes, 53 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: MacGuffin, Part 1: The Corrupt Crypto 'Revolution'
If you don't see that the crypto "industry" has become just as blindingly corrupt, just as oozingly fatuous, just as profoundly captured by the Nudging Oligarchy as the traditional financial services industry it was supposed to replace ... well, you're just not paying attention.
12/6/2022 • 23 minutes, 31 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #15: Sir Edmund Hillary Thinks You're An Ass
Mt Everest is a death trap. Everything about the mountain is designed to kill you. So why are so many people going up there? Why do we ignore the very real and very dangerous narratives that are right in our face.
10/28/2022 • 16 minutes, 23 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Notes From the Field
What does farming have to do with investing? Quite a lot, actually. In this first of a series that takes on a life of its own, Ben discusses bees and bonds, eggs and ETFs, and more.
10/5/2022 • 27 minutes, 20 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: The Goldfinch in Winter
Part 2 of Ben's Notes from the Field series, in which he considers the question: what can a bird teach us about value investing? To everything there is a season.
10/5/2022 • 9 minutes, 23 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Horsepower
There is no animal more important to the ascendancy of Western Civilization than the horse, and no invention more important than the horse collar. After all nothing shapes history like advances in productivity. Part 3 of Ben's Notes from the Field series here.
10/5/2022 • 23 minutes, 49 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #14: In Defense of Marie Antoinette
Marie Antoinette has a rather interesting historical footprint. For all that her image is iconic and her reputation infamous, it's not all the truth. The real Marie Antoinette has been lost to the cartoon of Marie Antoinette™. So I want to show you a glimpse at the real person behind the cartoon and take a closer look at how her cartoon got started.
10/3/2022 • 19 minutes, 4 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #13: Subverting Censorship
The Golden Age of Hollywood was full of drama. On and off screen. It was the age of carefully cultivated images. Fake names and secret procedures. And it was the age of censorship. The Hays Code and the censorship office had more influence on the film industry than any actor, director, or producer ever could. They had full control over what Hollywood made. Well, almost. There were still a few loopholes left to exploit.
9/20/2022 • 22 minutes, 8 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: This is Why We Can't Have Nice Things
Part 13 of the Notes from the Field series discusses the Narrative Machine, which can help us see the invisible memes that drive our political behaviors. Because you're smart enough to make up your own damn mind.
8/29/2022 • 28 minutes, 3 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #12: Resurrectionists
What's in a name? Quite a bit actually. Names and titles can be all that's needed to make some one a hero or a villain. So we're looking at some villains who never got their proper title. People who were able to hide behind social standing and wealth to excuse their crimes.
8/24/2022 • 19 minutes, 23 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #11: Locks of Love
Locks of Love is one of the most well known and well regarded charities in America. But things aren't always what they seem. Sometimes the smokescreen of common knowledge can obscure what's really going on. So join me in a look behind the curtain at America's most beloved charity.
7/26/2022 • 14 minutes, 48 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World
Over the past 25 years, our leaders have intentionally constructed an Apocalypse Now world of proclamation and fiat, where our wealth has grown much faster than our economy.
The bill is due for their hubris, and inflation is here to collect it.
7/19/2022 • 38 minutes, 43 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: A Song of Ice and Fire
We are the human animal.
We are non-linear.
We ARE a song of ice and fire.
It’s a song that has built cathedrals and fed billions and taken us to the moon. It’s a song that can do all of that and more … far, far more … if only we remember the tune.
The Pack remembers.
7/13/2022 • 21 minutes, 54 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: The Icarus Moment
We live in a Cartoon Age, an era not of alienation per Karl Marx, but of alienation per Groucho Marx. What’s the cause, what’s the future, and what do we do about all this? It’s a TL;DR cri de coeur in Part 12 of Epsilon Theory's Notes from the Field series.
6/28/2022 • 48 minutes, 13 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Good Job!
This is Part 11 of Ben's Notes from the Field series. I don’t need to calculate a Sortino ratio to know if my dogs are doing a Good Job. Same with active investment management. Same with active citizenship. It’s all about embracing Convexity, not as a mathematical cartoon, but as a philosophy.
5/31/2022 • 24 minutes, 16 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Too Clever By Half
The inevitable result of financial innovation gone awry, which it ALWAYS does, is that it ALWAYS ends up empowering the State. When too clever by half people misplay the meta-game, that’s all the excuse the State needs to come swooping in and crush them, just as they are with Bitcoin today they did with Bear and Lehman in 2008. Installment #10 from Notes from the Field.
5/10/2022 • 19 minutes, 47 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: The Three-Body Problem
What if I told you that the dominant strategies for human investing are, without exception, algorithms and derivatives? I don't mean computer-driven investing, I mean good old-fashioned human investing ... stock-picking and the like. And what if I told you that these algorithms and derivatives might all be broken today? You might want to sit down for Part 9 of the Notes from the Field series.
5/6/2022 • 34 minutes, 51 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #10: This Podcast Never Happened
We've all fallen victim to a bad retcon at some point in our lives. When the story we've been following takes a turn no one was prepared for and we have to act like it all makes perfect sense. It's Sherlock Holmes coming back from the dead. It's the reveal that an entire season of Dallas was only a dream. It's the author changing their mind and trying to convince you that it's all part of the plan. I don't buy it. And neither should you.
4/21/2022 • 19 minutes, 26 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Pecking Order
The pecking order is a social system designed to preserve economic inequality: inequality of food for chickens, inequality of wealth for humans. We are trained and told by Team Elite that the pecking order is not a real and brutal thing in the human species, but this is a lie. It is an intentional lie, formed by two powerful Narratives: trickle-down monetary policy and massive student debt financing. Part 8 of the Notes from the Field series.
4/12/2022 • 20 minutes, 8 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Clever Hans
Part 7 of Ben's Notes from the Field series reminds us that you don’t break a wild horse by crushing its spirit. You nudge it into willingly surrendering its autonomy. Because once you’re trained to welcome the saddle, you’re going to take the bit. We are Clever Hans, dutifully hanging on every word or signal from the Nudging Fed and the Nudging Street as we stomp out our investment behavior.
4/5/2022 • 22 minutes, 29 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Sheep Logic
In Part 6 of the Notes from the Field Series, Ben observes that we think we are wolves, living by the logic of the pack. In truth we are sheep, living by the logic of the flock.
3/23/2022 • 39 minutes, 40 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: The Arborist
In Part 4 of the Notes from the Field Series, Ben identifies how the natural lines of a tree and shaping the tree to follow those lines over time is a lot like shaping a portfolio.
3/15/2022 • 17 minutes, 22 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #9: Cat Eyes, Full Ass, Can't Smile
We've all felt insecure about our looks at one point or another. Especially in our chronically online world where how you look can be your whole brand. So with plastic surgery rates on the rise, let's peel back the layers of this industry and see how information (and lies) about procedures spread and examine the real price of beauty.
3/10/2022 • 13 minutes, 35 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #8: Bad Publicity
Someone once said there's no such thing as bad publicity. With all due respect, this person is an idiot. Publicity, both good and bad, can have major ramifications. Even if you don't play a part in creating it.
2/7/2022 • 10 minutes, 41 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #7: Birkin Bags
Birkin bags are one of the ultimate symbols of status. But how did that happen? And are they worth the hype?
1/6/2022 • 8 minutes, 16 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Always Go to the Funeral
There’s a pose that very sick farm animals sometimes take when they’re near death, where they lie down and twist their head way back into their shoulder in a very unnatural way. It’s an odd sight if you don’t know what it signifies, a horrible sight if you do.
Both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are starting to twist their heads back into their shoulders. I don’t know if it’s too late to save them or not, but I’m increasingly thinking that it is. We need to start thinking about the funeral, who’s going to speak, and what they’re going to say.
12/20/2021 • 23 minutes, 3 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #6: F*ck Almonds
Move over Hollywood! Almonds are one of the most lucrative and fastest growing industries in California. Unfortunately they're not as good for us as you'd think.
11/16/2021 • 10 minutes, 33 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #5: Hot Coffee
The McDonalds Hot Coffee lawsuit is the archetypal example of nonsense litigation. But there's a lot more to the story than most people know.
9/2/2021 • 10 minutes, 23 seconds
Epsilon Theory #13: Wanting
It's the only question that really matters here in the Age of Nudge: why do we want what we want? A conversation with Luke Burgis, author of Wanting: The Power of Mimetic Desire in Everyday Life.
8/17/2021 • 58 minutes, 13 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #4: Olympics
The Olympic games are known as a time of triumph and glory. The truth is that a lot more work goes into creating and maintaining that narrative than you'd expect.
8/16/2021 • 19 minutes, 21 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #3: The Molassacre
The Boston Molassacre was one of the great tragedies of the early 20th century. So why isn't it treated like one?
7/26/2021 • 17 minutes, 32 seconds
Epsilon Theory #12: Proof of Plant
I want to change the language of crypto from mining to growing, and I don't mean in a metaphorical sense. This is a method for the tokenization of symbolic betting markets in positive social goods.
7/16/2021 • 56 minutes, 41 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #2: Harvey Weinstein and the Oscars
Harvey Weinstein is a terrible person who did terrible things. But he doesn't get nearly enough credit, or more accurately blame, for his role in destroying the integrity of the Academy Awards and fundamentally altering how Hollywood makes movies.
7/5/2021 • 16 minutes, 12 seconds
Cursed Knowledge #1: The Fast Saga
The Fast and Furious movies are famous for intense action and ridiculous plots. But the truth about how these stories get made has more to do with the drama happening behind the camera than in front of it.
6/21/2021 • 17 minutes, 36 seconds
Epsilon Theory #11: A Working Narrative
We write a LOT about work. And the responses we get are ... weird. Once again, the most important narratives are the ones we tell ourselves.
6/16/2021 • 47 minutes, 11 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: The Long Now pt 4 - Snip!
The Long Now has severed the tether between taxation and spending – the most important policy relationship in our social lives. Here’s what we’re going to do about it.
5/24/2021 • 32 minutes, 41 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: The Long Now pt 3 - Wink
They have mastered the art of stealing our tells. At scale. Here’s how we resist. At scale.
5/24/2021 • 26 minutes, 7 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: The Long Now pt 2 - Make Protect Teach
It’s time to start a fire. To burn, yes, but also to illuminate. How? Make – Protect – Teach.
5/24/2021 • 29 minutes, 33 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: The Long Now pt. 1 - Tick Tock
The Long Now is the economic stimulus and the political fear that we pull forward from the future into the present. Tick-tock.
5/24/2021 • 15 minutes, 50 seconds
Epsilon Theory #10: In Praise of Bitcoin
What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.
5/5/2021 • 50 minutes, 52 seconds
Epsilon Theory #9: Make, Protect, Teach
How do we change the world? Not through corporations and political parties from the top-down, but through men and women of good will from the bottom-up. Not as an alienated flock, but as a cooperative pack. Not with abstractions and transactions, but with making, protecting and teaching. Let's gooooooo!
4/22/2021 • 50 minutes, 8 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Things Fall Apart, Part 4
Take back your vote.
Take back your distance.
Take back your data.
How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts to make it better.
Originally published November 19, 2018
4/12/2021 • 50 minutes, 8 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Things Fall Apart, Part 3
Part 3 of a four-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. The Fed, China and Italy are the Three Horsemen of the Investment Semi-Apocalypse. There’s a Fourth Horseman. And it will change EVERYTHING about investing.
Originally published October 24, 2018
4/12/2021 • 40 minutes, 49 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Things Fall Apart, Part 2
Part 2 of a four-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. How do things fall apart in a monolithic market? Not with a bang but a whimper.
Originally published September 4, 2018
4/12/2021 • 24 minutes, 25 seconds
Epsilon Theory #8: Leverage and Its Discontents
Three fund collapses in three months, even as markets hit new highs. What do the Archegos, Greensill, and Melvin Capital blow-ups have in common? Leverage.
4/2/2021 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 29 seconds
Epsilon Theory on Tape: Things Fall Apart, Part 1
Part 1 of a four-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire.
Originally published August 8, 2018
3/23/2021 • 20 minutes, 54 seconds
Epsilon Theory #7: Inflation Investing
We're going to Pack-source a slate of investment strategies for an inflationary world. Here are five tentpoles to organize and support that effort.
3/11/2021 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 50 seconds
Epsilon Theory #6: The Business of Wall Street
Very little of investing today is buying and selling shares of common stock in individual companies. Instead, we buy and sell what Wall Street calls "products". Mutual funds, ETFs, options, REITs, SPACs, etc. Dave Nadig, who literally wrote the book on ETFs, helps us understand the history and future of the business of Wall Street.
2/25/2021 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 12 seconds
Epsilon Theory #5: The Gnostic Nationalism Narrative
Every political movement has a political philosophy, and for Trumpism and MAGA it’s the Dominion theology of the charismatic/Pentecostal church.
Neither the rise of Donald Trump nor the attack on our Capitol can be understood without an examination of this faith and its constructed political narratives.
Believe it or not.
2/16/2021 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 3 seconds
Epsilon Theory #4: Hunger Games
What's happening with Reddit and Gamestop and Robinhood is a revolution, but not the revolution you think. This isn't a "democratization" of Wall Street. You were played. Again. It's a revolution in Common Knowledge. And that changes everything. Again.
2/5/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 46 seconds
Epsilon Theory #3: The Ireland Event
Rusty and I discuss the dramatic spike in Covid cases in Ireland over the last two weeks of December, and the risk of seeing a similar "Ireland Event" here in the US.
1/14/2021 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 38 seconds
Epsilon Theory #2: Personal Finance
A conversation with Brian Portnoy, author of The Geometry of Wealth, about the role of money in shaping a life of meaning. How do we give better advice about money to others ... and to ourselves?
12/24/2020 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 38 seconds
Epsilon Theory #1: Bitcoin
Can Bitcoin preserve its revolutionary potential after a Wall Street bear hug?
12/10/2020 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 13 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Is Volatility Back?
On this special episode of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we share an excerpt from a conference call we recorded on February 13 discussing our thoughts on the market selloff earlier in the month. You’ll hear from Christopher Guptill, co-CEO and chief investment officer at Broadmark Asset Management and Dr. Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory.
2/28/2018 • 14 minutes, 25 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Make America Good Again
On episode 26 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we welcome back Rusty Guinn, our executive vice president of asset management, to talk about political markets — a topic just as important to Ben as capital markets. Be sure to also check out the companion pieces to this podcast on the Epsilon Theory website: “Always Go To the Funeral,” “Sheep Logic,” and “Before and After the Storm.”
11/15/2017 • 54 minutes, 14 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Failure to Inflate
On episode 25 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we’re joined by Peter Cecchini, Chief Market Strategist, Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross-Asset Strategy at Cantor Fitzgerald, to discuss one of his recent notes, “Failure to Inflate.” As Peter writes, “The theories that guide monetary policy fail to explain why growth and inflation remain so low in developed economies.” Tune in to hear why this is and what might bring about higher inflation.
10/19/2017 • 45 minutes, 30 seconds
Epsilon Theory - The Jukebox Theory
We're back with episode 24 of the Epsilon Theory podcast! Ben shares his thoughts on the inflation narrative and a new idea reminiscent of C-SPAN to make politics at every level more transparent and engaging.
9/21/2017 • 44 minutes, 33 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Where’s the Punch Bowl?
On episode 23 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we’ve assembled the all-star team – Jeremy Radcliffe (Salient’s President), Rusty Guinn (Salient’s EVP of Asset Management), Neville Crawley (Founder & CEO of Engram Labs) and of course, Dr. Ben Hunt – to discuss whether we are at the inflection point when the proverbial punch bowl is taken away, and, as investors, what we do now.
7/18/2017 • 51 minutes, 39 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Does It Fly, Really?
On episode 22 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we’re in Las Vegas at the 2017 EQDerivatives conference. Both Dr. Ben Hunt and our guest, Devin Anderson, managing director in equity derivative sales at Deutsche Bank, were speakers at the event this year. In a nod to David McCullough’s 2015 book, The Wright Brothers, this episode explores whether the ubiquitous ideas floating around finance today actually have wings and can fly.
6/16/2017 • 1 hour, 40 seconds
Epsilon Theory - 1999 v2.0
On episode 21 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Brad McMillan, CFA, CAIA, the chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network®. Brad graciously hosts us at Commonwealth’s headquarters in Waltham, Massachusetts. Ben and Brad talk about their mutual love for Terry Pratchett, narrative causality, the French elections, and how technology is changing the financial advisory business.
5/11/2017 • 43 minutes, 17 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Change is in the Air
By the time we got to episode 20 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, change was bound to happen. Coming to you from our New York office, Dr. Ben Hunt and producer Michael talk about changes to the Epsilon Theory website, Ben’s role, and the entire political system.
4/17/2017 • 30 minutes, 12 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Information, Please.
On episode 19 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Rusty Guinn, Salient’s executive vice president of asset management. Picking up from their last conversation on fake news, Ben and Rusty consider the kinds of information that we have at our disposal and if we are asking the right questions in our analysis — or just searching for the answers we want.
3/28/2017 • 43 minutes, 23 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Big Data, Big Compute
On episode 18 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Neville Crawley, the former CEO of Quid, Inc., a data intelligence software company based in San Francisco. Dr. Hunt and Neville speak about advancements in big data and big compute, and the potential to further impact investing.
3/9/2017 • 44 minutes, 30 seconds
Epsilon Theory - What Now?
On episode 17, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined once again by Downtown Josh Brown. He’s an author, CNBC contributor, and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The last time Josh joined the podcast was right after the first presidential debate. With the election and inauguration behind us, now what? Ben and Josh take on the proposed 2017 Fed rate hikes, the potential impact of a higher dollar, and what matters most in investing.
2/14/2017 • 46 minutes, 45 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Alternative Facts
A new year and a new president. On episode 16, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Rusty Guinn, executive vice president of asset management at Salient, to explore when the media morphed from agent to principal.
1/24/2017 • 40 minutes, 35 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Mailbag #2
On episode 15 and the last of 2016, host Dr. Ben Hunt answers listeners’ questions about the Eurozone and what’s next in Italy, OPEC, and rates.
12/23/2016 • 27 minutes, 27 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Richie Incognito
On episode 14 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Salient President and Chief Strategy Officer Jeremy Radcliffe and co-CEO, Chief Investment Officer, and Portfolio Manager from Broadmark Asset Management, Chris Guptill. As they explore how a Trump presidency might be similar to Reagan’s presidency and what a “no” vote in Italy could mean for markets, Ben and Jeremy are in awe of Chris’s encyclopedic knowledge of market history.
12/8/2016 • 39 minutes, 19 seconds
Epsilon Theory - The Day After
On episode 13 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined in San Antonio by Grant Williams, founder and publisher of Things That Make You Go Hmmm… and co-founder of Real Vision TV. It’s the day after the 2016 presidential election and time to explore how and why Trump won, what it might mean for markets, and where Dr. Hunt and Grant are turning their attention.
11/11/2016 • 33 minutes, 56 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Karnak
On episode 12 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt takes a trip down memory lane to look back on the cause of the 2008 financial crisis. He applies those lessons to today’s markets and upcoming election, and nostalgically shares what might boost his spirits.
10/27/2016 • 31 minutes, 6 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Anthem!
On episode 11 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by two of his daughters, Hannah Hunt and Harper Hunt, to find out if they have an anthem this election season: a rousing cause or political movement about which they feel passionate. They also discuss the role of government and if their difference of opinion is a result of a generational gap.
10/13/2016 • 52 minutes, 6 seconds
Epsilon Theory - The First Presidential Debate
On episode 10 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Joshua Brown, author, CNBC contributor, and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Ben and Josh discuss their reaction to the first presidential debate and what it would mean to have a President Clinton or a President Trump.
9/29/2016 • 42 minutes, 12 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Jubilee!
We’re back in Houston on Episode 9 of the Epsilon Theory podcast. Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Salient’s chief investment officer Lee Partridge and deputy CIO Rusty Guinn to discuss Ben’s latest note, fiscal reform, and what to do as investors in volatile markets.
9/14/2016 • 36 minutes, 45 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Magical Thinking
Live from New York in episode 8 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt tackles LIBOR, the money market, and explores magical thinking and why the Fed and other central banks display symptoms of this activity.
8/31/2016 • 42 minutes, 30 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Full House
On episode seven of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt is joined in San Francisco by Salient's president Jeremy Radcliffe and deputy CIO Rusty Guinn to talk journalism, the coup in Turkey, and election politics. Producer Michael Corrao concludes with a surprise for Ben to celebrate the three year anniversary of Epsilon Theory.
8/10/2016 • 45 minutes, 13 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Dungeons & Dragons
On episode six of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt is joined again by Salient deputy chief investment officer Rusty Guinn to talk about an observable shift among equity and fixed income investors, intellectual property, and Dungeons & Dragons.
7/27/2016 • 42 minutes, 34 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Reader Mailbag #1
On episode five of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt riffles through the mailbag to answer reader questions. Join the conversation and subscribe to Epsilon Theory newsletters or this podcast on iTunes.
7/12/2016 • 29 minutes, 41 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Brexit Special
On a special episode of the Epsilon Theory podcast, hosts Dr. Ben Hunt and Jeremy Radcliffe discuss the economic and historical context of the Brexit vote. Dr. Hunt contends that “this is a Bear Stearns event and not a Lehman moment” and explains what he thinks could lead to a systemic shock to markets and the end of the Eurozone.
6/30/2016 • 37 minutes, 9 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Southern Accents
On episode three of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt is joined by Salient’s chief risk officer Rusty Guinn. Through anecdotes about Donald Trump, Mikhail Baryshnikov and David Mamet, they search for the elusive “true authenticity” in people, politics and finance.
6/3/2016 • 32 minutes, 11 seconds
Epsilon Theory - Crisis Of Faith
On episode two of the Epsilon Theory podcast, hosts Dr. Ben Hunt and Jeremy Radcliffe examine why the once-trusted models in finance and politics are broken and what this means for central bank policy and the upcoming U.S. election.
6/3/2016 • 36 minutes, 13 seconds
Epsilon Theory - The Introduction
In episode one of the Epsilon Theory podcast, hosts Dr. Ben Hunt and Jeremy Radcliffe discuss the origins of Epsilon Theory, how Dr. Hunt came aboard Salient in 2013, and why game theory can be used to more skillfully understand markets and politics.