The United States economy surprised many in 2023 with its low inflation, high employment, and strong economic growth. In spite of this, American consumer sentiment had been relatively negative until recently, but now has begun to improve in line with this good performance. Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post join EconoFact Chats to discuss the sources of the good economic performance, the disconnect with consumer sentiment, some reasons for continued economic optimism, as well as key risks going into 2024.

The federal government’s debt is just under 100 percent of GDP – and it is projected to grow to 115 percent of GDP in a decade, and 180 percent of GDP in thirty years.  Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, discusses the reasons debt increased significantly before the pandemic, its dramatic rise since then, and its expected further increase. He also explains how high debt adversely affects people’s living standards as well as the ability of the government to respond to both ongoing needs and future economic crises. He offers some proposals for dealing with the debt, including a carbon tax, raising the payroll tax on high-income individuals, and establishing a bipartisan commission to address the country’s fiscal challenges. Along with his role as Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, Mark also serves on the Board of Directors of MGIC, the nations largest private mortgage insurance company and is the lead director of the Reinvestment Fund, one of the nation’s largest community development financial institutions that makes investments in underserved communities.

Zero-sum thinking - the belief that gains for some necessarily come at the expense of others - can shape support for economic redistribution, race- and gender-based affirmative action, and immigration policies. Drawing on new survey data, Stefanie Stantcheva joins EconoFact Chats to discuss her research on what determines whether people view the world as zero sum. Her analysis demonstrates that viewing the world in zero-sum terms is not a left vs. right issue. Rather factors such as people’s ancestry, where they live, with whom they interact, and their generation influence their views on this point – and, through this, their views on a range of economic and social policies. Stefanie is the Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economy at Harvard, and the founder of the Social Economics Lab.

Working from home was relatively rare before COVID. It became a necessity as the pandemic raged. Today, it remains more common and, to some extent, a choice. But is it a choice that both workers and employers agree upon? More than three years after the start of the pandemic, what do we know about the preferences for working from home for employees, and for employers? What do we know about its effects on productivity, and job satisfaction? Drawing on data from the latest Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, Nicholas Bloom joins EconoFact Chats to explore these questions. A co-founder at the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, Nick is a Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The very highest-income individuals and families typically pay lower taxes, as a share of income, than middle-class individuals and families. Part of the reason is that much more of their income comes from investment and business incomes that are tax-favored as compared to wage and salary income. The very wealthy also benefit from tax rules and regulations that diminish taxes paid on inheritances. These features of the tax system reinforce income inequality, diminish economic opportunity, and reduce tax revenue. Bill Gale joins EconoFact Chats to address these issues. He offers suggestions on ways to reform the tax system to make it more progressive and to increase much-needed revenues. Bill is the Arjay and Frances Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy and Senior Fellow in the Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution. He served as president of the National Tax Association from 2019 to 2020.

The income tax was established in 1913 with the ratification of the single sentence of the 16th amendment. Tax rules and regulations have undergone many revisions and changes in the 110 years since then, including the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act. One provision of that act, concerning multinational corporations repatriating income, is being challenged in the case Moore v. United States. Oral arguments in that case, which could have far-reaching implications for the tax system, will be heard by the Supreme Court in December. Dan Shaviro of the New York University School of Law, explains the evolution of the income tax system over the past half decade and some of the possible consequences of the Moore decision, including huge revenue losses for the government. Dan is the Wayne Perry Professor of Taxation at NYU. His newest book is 'Bonfires of the American Dream in American Rhetoric, Literature and Film.'

In what ways are children particularly hard hit by poverty? How does growing up poor affect early-life development? Lisa A. Gennetian joins EconoFact Chats to answer these questions, drawing on preliminary results from 'Baby’s First Years,' a large-scale, multi-decade interdisciplinary study on the impact of poverty on brain development among infants. A Principal Investigator at 'Baby's First Years,' Lisa is also the Pritzker Professor of Early Learning Policy Studies at the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University.

The U.S. Congress has stated its intention to extend many of the tax cuts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act beyond 2025. But, as Kim Clausing highlights, Congress is also likely to rethink some of the act's provisions. Kim joins EconoFact Chats to discuss which parts of the act made for good tax policy, which didn't, and what policy changes could put the U.S. on a path of greater fiscal sustainability. A nationally recognised tax policy expert, Kim is the Eric M. Zolt Professor of Tax Law and Policy at the UCLA School of Law.

China's rise has been among the most consequential economic events of the past half century. Before the reforms begun by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s, China was among the poorest nations in the world. The transformations over the past 45 years have made it a central player in the world economy. But in the last few years, the Chinese juggernaut has stalled. And while many economies slowed during the COVID pandemic, the downturn in China has been especially acute.  Will the Chinese economy rebound? Adam Posen joins EconoFact Chats to share his thoughts on this and other issues, drawing on his latest Foreign Affairs article ‘The End of China's Economic Miracle.’  Adam is the President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Health outcomes in the United States lag behind those in many other rich countries, especially for lower income groups and ethnic and racial minorities. These shortcomings arise even though health care expenditures represent almost one-fifth of this country’s national income. Amy Finkelstein and Liran Einav document the state of health care and health insurance in the United States as well as their suggestions for improvements in their new book 'We've Got You Covered: Rebooting American Health Care.' Amy joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the findings and analysis in her book, and her decades of pathbreaking research on this topic. Amy is the John and Jennie S. MacDonald Professor of Economics at MIT. A member of the National Academy of Sciences, Amy was awarded the prestigious John Bates Clark Medal from the American Economic Association in 2012, and a MacArthur “Genius Grant” in 2018.

Binyamin Applebaum of the New York Times, Larry Edelman of the Boston Globe, Scott Horsley of NPR, and Heather Long of the Washington Post join EconoFact Chats for the 9th edition of the podcast's panel discussion with economic journalists. Binyamin, Larry, Scott and Heather focus on inflation, affordable housing, the temporarily averted government shutdown, the auto-workers strike and what that might imply about the union movement, and the ongoing Amazon and Google anti-trust cases.

12.4% of Americans lived in poverty in 2022. The 4.6 percentage point increase over 2021 marks the biggest one-year jump in the poverty rate on record. More strikingly, the rate of child poverty more than doubled from 5.2% in 2021 to 12.4% in 2022. What are the sources of this rise in poverty? What are the human consequences of living poor? And what can be done to reduce poverty? Diane Schanzenbach, among the country's foremost experts on poverty and poverty reduction programs joins EconoFact Chats to address these questions. Diane is the Associate Provost and Senior Advisor to the President for Academic Excellence at the University of Florida. She is currently on leave from her position as Professor in the School of Education and Social Policy at Northwestern University.

Jeffrey Fuhrer joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his new book, 'The Myth That Made Us: How False Beliefs about Racism and Meritocracy Broke Our Economy (and How to Fix It),' highlighting how the unfounded belief that individual success and failure is just a function of hard work, or the lack of it -- what he terms ‘the myth’ -- has shaped policies and public perceptions in ways that have caused economic harm to millions. Jeff also highlights policies that can help remedy longstanding socio-economic disparities. Jeff served for nearly four decades in the Federal Reserve System, first at the Board of Governors in Washington, DC, followed by more than 25 years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Currently, he is a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a Foundation Fellow at the Eastern Bank Foundation.

The Federal Reserve has seen much success in its fight against inflation. The headline rate over the 12 months ending in August 2023 was 3.7%; much lower than the peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Notably, inflation has come down with virtually no rise in unemployment. But it remains higher than the Fed's 2% target. Will reducing inflation by another 1.7 percentage points prove as costless to output and employment? What lessons can the Fed draw from moderate disinflationary episodes in other countries? Peter Blair Henry joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his findings on these issues, drawing on a recent Foreign Affairs article co-authored with Anusha Chari (University of North Carolina). Peter is a Senior Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, and Dean Emeritus of New York University's Stern School of Business.

How can international trade policy be aligned with global commitments to reduce inequality, transition to a clean energy future, and promote sustainable development? Joel Trachtman, a founding partner of the Remaking the Global Trading System for a Sustainable Future Project joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the group’s new report, focusing on the natural links between trade and sustainable development goals as well as how trade policy can reconcile possible trade-offs between economic efficiency and sustainability goals. Joel is the Henry J. Braker Professor of Commercial Law at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University.

The 20th century was defined in large part by the conflicts between free market-oriented ideas, and policies favoring government intervention to soften the effects of unbridled markets. It was also defined by broad increases in quality of life. Yet, even as material progress of the last 150 years greatly exceeded that of the previous thousands of years, it hasn't led to the utopia that people in earlier, more materially dire periods, believed would come about. Drawing on his new book 'Slouching Towards Utopia,' J. Bradford DeLong joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why. Brad is a Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy from 1993 to 1995. 'Slouching Towards Utopia,' was named one of the best business books of 2022 by The Financial Times. Note: This podcast was first posted on 26th February, 2023.

About one-fifth of women who graduated from college between 1900 and 1920 were in the labor force in their mid to late twenties. In contrast, more than four-fifths of women graduating from college between 1980 and 2000 worked outside the home in their mid to late twenties. A flip side of this is the proportion of women married by age 30; 50% for those who graduated college between 1900 and 1920 and about 25% for those graduating between 1980 and 2000.  These statistics reflect choices that women have made and continue to make about balancing a career with raising children, and the choices that men have made and continue to make as well. On this episode of EconoFact Chats, Michael Klein speaks with Claudia Goldin of Harvard University about her recent book, Career and Family: Women's Century-Long Journey toward Equity, highlighting a wealth of statistics and examining cultural shifts shaping these choices. Claudia is the Henry Lee Professor of Economics at Harvard University. She is a former President of the American Economic Association, and co-directs the National Bureau of Economic Research's Gender in the Economy Study Group. Note: This podcast was first posted on 29th January, 2023.

Economic policies affect people's lives, but the policies themselves can seem arcane. Writing about economics in an interesting, accessible, and compelling fashion contributes importantly to the public’s understanding. Catherine Rampell, an award winning columnist for the Washington Post, shares her thoughts on how to convey key insights on economic issues in this episode of EconoFact Chats. Catherine is an opinion columnist at The Washington Post. She also appears on CNN, and PBS News Hour. Notable awards recognizing her work include the Online Journalism Award for Commentary, and the Weidenbaum Center Award for Evidence-based Journalism. Note: This podcast was first posted on 23rd April, 2023.

As of October 2022, the U.S. national debt stood at over $31 trillion. That amounts to nearly $90,000 of debt per citizen. But is there an upside to a government spending more than its tax revenues? How much should we worry about debt of this magnitude? Does history offer lessons for today? Barry Eichengreen joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Barry is the George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served as a senior policy advisor at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is In Defense of Public Debt. Note: This podcast was first posted on 30th October, 2022.

For many Americans, episodes of stress are often temporary. But for marginalized communities -- especially black people, and those living in poverty, stress is, too often, an ongoing part of life. And this has dire consequences on health and well-being. Our guest on EconoFact Chats this week, Arline Geronimus has done pioneering work in understanding the consequences of chronic stress, especially as it relates to maternal and infant health; contributing, counterintuitively, to poorer birth outcomes for babies born to older black mothers, as compared to those born to younger ones. Arline is a Professor of Health Behavior and Health Education at the University of Michigan. She is also a member of the National Academy of Medicine of the National Academies of Science. Her newest book is “Weathering: The Extraordinary Stress of Ordinary Life in an Unjust Society.” Note: This podcast was first posted on 28th May, 2023.

Do admissions committees of the most selective colleges consider family income along with applicants’ academic accomplishments, athletic achievements, legacy status, and extra-curricular activities? Given the outsized benefits of attending an “Ivy-plus” college (the eight Ivy league colleges plus Chicago, Duke, Stanford, and MIT), understanding whether children from highest-income families enjoy higher rates of admission compared to middle-class applicants with similar credentials is critical for understanding ongoing privilege and for considering policies to broaden opportunity and promote social advancement. David Deming joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his findings on these issues, drawing on his latest paper 'Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges,’ co-authored with Raj Chetty and John Friedman. David is the Isabelle and Scott Black Professor of Political Economy at the Harvard Kennedy School, and a Professor of Education and Economics at the Harvard Graduate School of Education.

Economists tend to think of technological change as a good thing. But, as Daron Acemoglu, and Simon Johnson highlight in their new book 'Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity,' the path technological development takes has, for millennia, been linked with political power and to prevailing ideas of how to attain progress. And often the political and social milieu served to concentrate the gains from technological change to a privileged few. Simon Johnson joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his new book, highlighting what the driving vision for technological progress has been over various periods of development, the broader social impact of inventions that come about, and whether technological progress can be made more responsive to broader societal needs. Simon is the Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He served as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund in 2007-08.

Founded with the mandate of overseeing a stable international currency system in the Bretton Woods era, over the last decades, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has seen its role shift to coordinating debt relief. Often, such debt relief has been contingent on spending cuts, and other measures that put a stressed country's balance sheet on more stable footing. IMF conditionality is viewed by some as necessary medicine, and by others, as punitive. But how did the IMF come to be the arbitrator of crisis countries' policies? How does the IMF operate? And has it been capable of self-analysis, and when necessary, change its approach? Charles Collyns joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. A Senior Advisor at EconoFact, Charles previously served as the Director of the Independent Evaluation Office at the International Monetary Fund, and before that, as Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance. He was the Assistant Secretary for International Finance at the US Treasury Department from 2010 to 2013.

While much of the recent debate about the U.S. debt ceiling centered on spending cuts, debt and deficits can also be addressed through raising revenue. One source of government revenue is taxes on corporations. What are the arguments for raising the corporate tax rate? What would be the effects of higher corporate taxes? A substantial increase in revenues? A fairer tax system? Reduced entrepreneurship? Greater offshoring? Lower wages? And which companies would be affected by higher taxes? Kimberly Clausing joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Kim is the Eric M. Zolt Professor of Tax Law and Policy at the UCLA School of Law.

D.W. Griffith's 1915 film The Birth of a Nation, a fictional portrayal of the KKK's founding, is America's first blockbuster. It's also a film laden with racist overtones, and, as Desmond Ang of Harvard University highlights in a recent American Economic Review article, a film that has had marked effects on racially-motivated violence. Desmond joins EconoFact to discuss how the relative novelty of cinema at the turn of the 20th century, and the limited number of counties that had the wherewithal to show films, make it possible to identify how screenings of The Birth of a Nation increased the frequency of racial violence, and support for the KKK. He also highlights how news, and entertainment media today might be polarizing audiences. Desmond is an Assistant Professor of Public Policy at the Kennedy School at Harvard University.

The recent U.S. debt-ceiling negotiations included demands for cutting funding for Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program. How much would cuts to these and other social safety net programs reduce government spending by? And at what cost to its beneficiaries, that comprised about 3 in 10 people, including nearly half of all U.S. children, in 2019? Melissa Kearney joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these and other issues concerning the U.S. social safety net. Melissa is a professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland. She is also the director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group.

The United States bills itself as a land of opportunity; where economic and social advancement depend on abilities, skills, and drive, rather than the circumstances into which one is born. But is this characterization accurate? How does the U.S. compare to other countries in terms of socio-economic mobility across generations? And does the ability to change one's economic lot differ much by race, income, and national origin? Steven Durlauf of the Harris School, at the University of Chicago joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues, and to highlight ways policymakers can broaden opportunity for socio-economic advancement across racial and income groups in the U.S. Steven is the Director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth, Inequality, and Mobility at the University of Chicago.

EconoFact Chats regularly hosts a panel interview with the distinguished economic journalists Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post. In this latest installment, the panel has a wide-ranging discussion, including on the topics of: the fight over the debt limit, its resolution, and the possible consequences of this political fight (Moody’s notes that the United States has one of the least affordable debt burdens among advanced economies); the debate the over sources of current inflation, policies to bring it down, and whether the Federal Reserve should continue to have 2 percent as its preferred inflation target rate; and the Administration’s arguments for, and possible limits to, reshaping the American economy through policies like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act.

These are challenging times for central bankers, not only in the United States but worldwide. Inflation in the twenty countries in the Eurozone was 6.9 percent in March 2023, almost two percentage points higher than in the United States. The European Central Bank (ECB) is responding to inflation in a similar fashion to the Federal Reserve, by raising interest rates. But there are concerns that these policy moves could cause a recession and threaten banks and financial institutions. Higher interest rates also make government debt more expensive to service, at a time when debt is already high in the wake of COVID. A person uniquely well qualified to discuss central bank policy in the Eurozone is Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank and a member of its executive board. On the eve of the 25th anniversary of the ECB, he joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the current challenges affecting the Euro Area, as well as the ECB's policies.

This spring, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed and First Republic Bank failed and was sold to J.P. Morgan Chase. The $532 billion in assets of these banks exceeded the inflation adjusted value of assets of the 25 banks that failed in 2008. Why did these banks fail? Are they the first three failures in what could be a string of bank collapses? Or did the action of regulators stem the crisis? What policies are needed to make banks more resilient? EconoFact Chats welcomes back Jeremy Stein to discuss these issues. Jeremy is a Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 2012 to 2014, and served as a senior advisor to the Treasury Secretary and on the staff of the National Economic Council during the global financial crisis.

The U.S. government could default on its debt obligations by June 1st if Congress doesn't raise or suspend the debt ceiling. This would have far-reaching consequences in the United States and around the world. Why does the U.S. even have a debt limit when virtually no other country does? How often has the debt ceiling been raised in the past? What are the options to avoid default if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling? And what would be the likely consequences of a default? To address these questions, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Bill Gale of the Brookings Institution. Bill is widely recognized as one of the country's top experts on public finance. He is the author of ‘Fiscal Therapy: Curing Americans' Debt Addiction and Investing in the Future.’

The maternal mortality rate in the U.S. is three to four times that of comparably wealthy countries. Furthermore, it is much higher for Black women than White women, and for poor women than for rich women. Strikingly, high income Black mothers have the same risk of dying in the first year following childbirth as the poorest white mothers. What accounts for high maternal mortality in the United States as compared to other rich countries, and for the racial and income differences within this country. What can policy do to ensure better outcomes? Petra Persson and Maya Rossin-Slater join EconoFact Chats to discuss these important questions.  Maya is a Professor in the Department of Health Policy at Stanford University. Petra is a Professor at Stanford's Department of Economics.

2.3 billion people, or 30% of the world's population, are food insecure. This isn't just a problem in low-income countries – an estimated 34 million people in the United States, including one out of every eight children, have constrained diets because of a lack of access to food. Furthermore, malnutrition and obesity are common since most people’s diets have some deficiencies, or some excesses because of the costs of food, and a lack of knowledge about what constitutes healthy eating. What are the causes of hunger? What makes for a healthy diet, and what does it cost to provide this to a family, both in the United States, and around the world? Will Masters joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these and other questions. Will is a professor at the Friedman School of Nutrition at Tufts University. He is also an elected fellow of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

While China's rapid economic growth has made it an attractive target for foreign investments, it is not straightforward to know how much of one's portfolio includes exposure to Chinese companies. As Matteo Maggiori notes, much of the increasing investment in China is through shell companies in offshore markets like the Cayman Islands. Matteo joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the economic, regulatory and fiscal implications of investments in tax havens, and of international investment more generally. Matteo is the Moghadam Family Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He is a director of the Global Allocation Project. He received the American Finance Association’s Fischer Black Prize in 2021.

Much of the demand for automation in richer countries - whether it be for self-checkout machines or driverless trucks - is driven by labor scarcity. And as populations in these countries age, this scarcity will become more acute.  Yet, as Lant Pritchett highlights in a recent Foreign Affairs article, globally, labor remains abundant. Rather than devoting vital high-level scientific and technological knowledge as well as entrepreneurship to address these shortages, a far more efficient solution is to simply allow greater immigration from labor-abundant countries, whose workers would welcome these employment opportunities. Lant discusses the broad economic arguments for, as well as the political and social concerns against, greater international labor mobility in this EconoFact Chats episode.  Lant is research director of the Labor Mobility Partnerships. He has worked at the World Bank and has taught at Harvard, Oxford, and the London School of Economics.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank raised the specter of a broader financial and economic crisis. This seems to have been averted by the decision to ensure all deposits; but questions remain about banks’ risk-taking, the adequacy of regulation, and whether continuing interest rate hikes will further imperil the financial system. Moderating the rise in interest rates, however, counters the efforts to bring down inflation, which continues to be well above its target rate. Will the Federal Reserve recalibrate its efforts to tackling inflation? What do regulatory failures mean for future policies regarding banking supervision and oversight?  To discuss these issues Econofact Chats welcomes back Binyamin Applebaum of the New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post.

Inflation in the United States rose above 9 percent in the summer of 2022, its highest rate in over four decades. The Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation. While the inflation rate is declining, it remains well above the target rate of 2%.  Did the Federal Reserve react too late to rising inflation? Were its subsequent policy moves appropriately restrictive? Will current policy lead to a recession, or can the Fed engineer a soft landing that brings down inflation without causing a recession? EconoFact Chats welcomes back Jeffrey Fuhrer to discuss these issues. Jeff is a Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard's Kennedy School. He worked for almost four decades in the Federal Reserve System, including serving as Research Director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and as Special Advisor to that Bank’s President.

The rise of remote work has been among the more persistent labor-market changes engendered by COVID. Three years since the start of the pandemic, even as most social distancing mandates are lifted, many still work in virtual settings. What do we know about who continues to work from home, how much they work from home, and the kinds of jobs enabling this flexibility? What are the advantages and disadvantages for companies that allow remote work? And what does persistent work from home mean for urban commercial real estate? To discuss these issues, as well as his new book, Going Remote, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Matthew Kahn.  Matt is the Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California.

Uncertainty affects companies’ investment and hiring decisions, as well as people’s choices about buying big-ticket durable goods like cars or houses. There are different types of uncertainty. Risk arises when you know the likelihood of outcomes but not what will occur, as happens with flipping a coin. Ambiguity reflects a situation in which the likelihood or effects of outcomes are much less clear, as with the consequences of COVID or climate change. Both play important, and somewhat distinct roles in decision-making. Nicholas Bloom (Stanford) joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats this week, to discuss the role of uncertainty, and its patterns across countries and time. Nick is the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University. He was awarded a Guggenheim Fellowship in 2022. Note: This podcast was first posted on 19th February, 2023.

A central result from economic theory is that nations benefit from international trade (even as there is a recognition that not all people within a country may benefit). But recently there have been calls for the United States to restrict trade by creating incentives or rules that favor domestic production over purchases from abroad. Will these efforts ultimately strengthen or weaken the United States economy Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats to discuss this issue. Chad is the Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, and the host of the podcast Trade Talks.

After reaching a four-decade high in June 2022, U.S. inflation has been on a steady downward trend. Part of the reason for this is the aggressive response of the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates. While this is good news, there are concerns that the Fed’s actions could push the economy into a recession, much like in the late 1970s and early 1980s, in the wake of the so-called 'Volcker disinflation.' What are the similarities and differences between high inflation in the 1970s and today? How have previous periods of high inflation, as well as the 'great moderation' -- the multi-decade long period of very low inflation -- informed the Fed's thinking in tackling the current crisis? And what might Fed policy look like moving forward, given the easing of inflation over the past half year? Dan Sichel joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions. Dan is the Stanford Calderwood Professor of Economics at Wellesley College. Prior to joining Wellesley, he worked at the Federal Reserve Board for over 20 years.

The UK's budget crisis last September led to a plunge in the value of the pound, the sacking of the Chancellor of the Exchequer after 39 days in office, and a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister. These events highlight how fiscal policies can have wide-spread political and economic consequences. As the U.S. Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner, what lessons might U.S. policy-makers draw from the British experience? How does failure to raise the debt ceiling affect faith in U.S. Treasury debt? And what are the rammifications of eroding trust in U.S. debt? Adam Posen joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Adam is the President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He served seven terms as an advisor to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, and a three-year term on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

Football and basketball teams at Division I universities generate billions in revenue. But the student-athletes themselves do not receive salaries. Should they? Most have scholarships for their tuitions, but to what degree are they students, as well as athletes? And how does the money raised through these big-ticket sports support other, less high-profile sports, and the academic mission of these colleges and universities, if at all? Andrew Zimbalist joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Andy is the Robert A. Woods Professor Emeritus of Economics at Smith College. He has consulted in the sports industry for numerous players' associations, cities, companies, teams, and leagues.

Michael Klein speaks with Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod about their new book, Rebellion, Rascals and Revenue: Tax Follies and Wisdom Through the Ages, highlighting the challenges governments face when taxing their citizens, how taxes alter people's behavior, and the difficulty in assessing who bears the burden of a particular tax. Note: This podcast was first posted on 29th March, 2021.

The homicide rate in the U.S. is over seven times that of other industrialized nations. Gun deaths accounted for nearly 80% of all U.S. homicides in 2020. In contrast, gun deaths represented about one-sixth of all homicides in other industrialized countries. What interventions could prove effective in reducing gun violence in the U.S.? Are there ways to identify those at high risk, and reduce the likelihood of them becoming victims? Sara Heller and Max Kapustin join EconoFact Chats to discuss these critically important questions. Sara is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Michigan, and Max is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Cornell University. Sara and Max’s research focuses on interventions to reduce crime, and improve life outcomes for disadvantaged youth.

In 2021, Americans donated nearly $500 billion to charity. One-quarter of all Americans also report volunteering their time. What does economic analysis add to our understanding of volunteering time and giving money to charities, activities typically considered moral or religious duties? To what causes do people donate time or money? And what makes people more or less likely to give to a particular organization? Laura Gee joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Laura is an Associate Professor of Economics at Tufts University.  Her research is in behavioral economics — with a particular focus on how individual decision making is influenced by group dynamics.

What are the ways in which public finance -- the study of government taxing and spending -- can and should address issues related to the inequitable racial impacts of government policy? This week on EconoFact Chats Bill Gale of the Brookings Institution discusses recognizing and analyzing racial disparities fostered by public policy and how public finance policies can better address past injustices. Bill is the Arjay and Frances Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy and Senior Fellow in the Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution. He served as president of the National Tax Association from 2019 to 2020. (This podcast was first posted on 20th February, 2022).

The U.S. dollar is a refuge at times of uncertainty – and in these uncertain times, the dollar is at its strongest point since the mid-1980s. This presents problems. Commodities like oil and wheat, which are priced in dollars, become more expensive in terms of euros, yen, or pesos, fueling inflation, and reducing people’s purchasing power. Additionally, dollar-denominated debt of emerging market and developing countries becomes harder to repay as the dollar strengthens. In the face of these challenges, what would be appropriate policy responses by countries whose currencies are weakening? And by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury? Professor Maurice Obstfeld, widely recognized as a preeminent expert on the world economy, addresses these questions, and others, in this EconoFact Chats episode. Maury is a Professor at the University of California at Berkeley. He served as the Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2015 to 2018. Prior to that, he served as a Member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.

There's evidence that economically better-off voters tilt Republican. But there is a paradox. While richer voters tilt Republican, richer states tend to vote Democrat. To discuss this apparent paradox, as well as issues of poll accuracy, and how much the state of the economy has mattered in recent mid-term elections, EconoFact Chats welcomes Andrew Gelman of Columbia University. Andrew is a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia. His work has focused on a range of topics, including why it is rational to vote, and why campaign polls are so variable, when elections are often predictable.

To what extent does where you live determine how you live? In particular, does growing up in a poor neighborhood reduce one's chances for economic and social advancement, greater educational achievement, and better health? Poor people typically live in poor neighborhoods. But would those people do better living in better-off settings? If so, what government policies could help? To discuss these issues, Lawrence Katz of Harvard University joins EconoFact Chats. Larry is the Elizabeth Allison Professor of Economics at Harvard. He served as Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. His research focuses on labor economics, and on the impact of public policies designed to address social problems. He led the Moving to Opportunity study, a major randomized housing mobility experiment sponsored by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The recent strength of the dollar highlights the impact exchange rate movements can have. In addition to economic impacts, these include far-reaching social and political effects too. Jeffry Frieden, a leading scholar on the political economy of exchange rates joins EconoFact Chats to discuss who gains and who loses from swings in exchange rates, their political implications, how political considerations affect the choice of whether to allow a currency to be determined by market forces or government policies and, in particular, how this applies to the adoption and maintenance of the Euro. Jeff is Professor of Government at Harvard University. His research focuses on the politics of international economic relations.

The United States economy is currently marked by high inflation, a strong dollar, rising food and energy prices, and historically low unemployment. The shortage of microchips presents another challenge, as do the ongoing consequences of climate change. Can the Federal Reserve lower inflation without sending the economy into a deep recession? Should the United States be incentivizing domestic manufacturing of advanced microchips? What will the Inflation Reduction Act mean for a transition to a greener economy? To address these questions, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, and Megan Greene, a columnist at the Financial Times and the Global Chief Economist at Kroll.

Given their critical role in everything from complex weapons guidance systems, to medical devices, video games, and watches, semiconductors today have much the same pervasive effects oil did in the 20th century; determining the economic fortunes of countries, the outcomes of wars, and the everyday lives of individuals. This week, Chris Miller of the Fletcher School joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his new book 'Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology,' highlighting among other things, the extraordinarily complicated, and geographically concentrated chip fabrication process, the geopolitical vulnerabilities that concentration raises, and the scope for the U.S. to onshore chip production. Chris is an Assistant Professor of International History at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Chip War comes out on October 4th, 2022.

Most people don't think of economics as having a religious basis, and may question whether religion affects people’s views of economic issues. But in his recent book, 'Religion and the Rise of Capitalism,' our guest on EconoFact Chats this week, Professor Benjamin Friedman of Harvard University, discusses the influence of religion on economics, including how the ideas of the Social Gospel and the Gospel of Wealth played a role in the development of American economic thinking in the late 19th century, how religious thinking influenced people’s views of economic policy in the 20th century, and how that influence continues to the present day. Professor Friedman is the William Joseph Maier Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University. He has authored over 170 scholarly articles, and written or edited a dozen books, including The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth.

Distrust is based on experience – and there are many historical experiences that give rise to distrust among African-Americans of economic institutions in the United States, including the laws of the Jim Crow era and discrimination in hiring, lending, and access to education and health care. Trevon Logan discusses historical experiences, and the long shadow cast by them, in this EconoFact Chats episode.  Part of this discussion centers on the Green Book, published annually between 1936 and 1966, that offered guidance to Black travelers about public accommodations like restaurants and motels that they could patronize. Trevon’s research analyzes how the locations of establishments listed in the Green Book correlate with the presence of anti-discriminatory laws, the educational and racial profiles of towns and cities, and the history of overt racist acts like lynchings in those places.    Trevon is a Hazel C. Youngberg Trustees Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Ohio State University. He is also the inaugural director of the National Bureau of Economic Research Working Group on Race and Stratification in the Economy.

Sanctions in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine have had less of an impact than initially hoped by the West, or feared by Russia. But Russia’s longer-term economic prospects don't look particularly good. Which sectors and segments of Russian society have Western sanctions affected most? How leaky have they been? What short and long-run effects are they designed to have? And are they likely to achieve their ultimate goal of making the cost of continuing the invasion of Ukraine too high? To discuss these issues, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Christopher Miller. Chris is an Assistant Professor of International History at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. His research focuses on Russian history, politics, and economics. He is the author of “Putinomics: Power and Money In a Resurgent Russia,” and "We Shall Be Masters: Russian Pivots to East Asia From Peter the Great to Putin."

In the wake of the economic crisis of the 1970s, and again, in the aftermath of 2008, macroeconomists have had to rethink their understanding of the drivers of recessions, as well as the most effective policy responses to them. This week on EconoFact Chats, Karen Dynan and Michael Klein discuss how past recessions have shaped today’s fiscal and monetary policy, the role of inflation, and inflation expectations, and how policy makers can be better prepared for future crises. Karen is a Professor of Practice in the Department of Economics at Harvard University. She served as Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Treasury from 2014 to 2017. (This podcast was first posted on 21st November, 2021).

College costs are far from straightforward. For the vast majority of students attending four-year private colleges, the amount they pay is not the sticker price. Rather, colleges offer many different types of financial aid. But it's hard for families to figure out beforehand how much aid they're likely to receive. What are the problems that arise from the opacity of college costs for families? And for colleges and universities? What are some reasonable plans to make college more affordable? Phillip Levine joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Phil is the Katharine Coman and A. Barton Hepburn Professor of Economics at Wellesley College. (This podcast was first posted on 17th April, 2022).

Middle-income jobs have been declining over the past decades, leaving behind a polarized workforce, with one group of people doing high-skilled, well remunerated work, and another growing set, that are in low-wage, relatively economically insecure positions, that don't have much of a career ladder. Automation, globalization, and the shrinking role of unions have all contributed to the hollowing out of middle-wage jobs, exacerbating wage inequality among American workers. In the current economic recovery, however, there are hopeful signs that labor demand, and worker activism might improve conditions for low wage workers. This week on EconoFact Chats, David Autor discusses the economic forces behind the hollowing out of the middle class, and what types of policies can help expand opportunities for those left behind.  David is Ford Professor in the MIT Department of Economics and co-director of the NBER Labor Studies Program. (This podcast was first posted on 19th December, 2021).

Unusually frequent droughts and hurricanes are manifestations of climate change; and these events, along with associated wildfires and floods, have important economic consequences. This week on EconoFact Chats, Galina Hale discusses the costs of both, these extreme events, and the costs of a transition to a more environmentally friendly economy. Galina Hale is a professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz. She previously was an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. (This podcast was first posted on 28th February, 2022).

How do people come to their views on issues like income inequality, tax policy, and immigration policy? What is the role of personal experience in forming these opinions?  Do people’s views change when they are confronted with new information that challenges their existing ideas? This week on EconoFact Chats, Stefanie Stantcheva explains how divergent social and political views can become entrenched, and why facts alone often aren’t sufficient to change one's mind. Stefanie is the Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University and founder of its Social Economics Lab. This podcast was first posted 3rd April, 2022.

In 1860, the United States had no national currency, no national bank, and no income tax. Lincoln had a vision of advancing the economic fortunes of the country and fostering greater economic equality through, for example, incentivizing railroads and creating land-grant universities. He and his Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase also faced the challenge of financing the hugely expensive Civil War.  This week on EconoFact Chats, Roger Lowenstein describes how Lincoln and Chase revolutionized the role of the federal government, played a crucial part in the Union Army’s victory, and helped forge a national identity – a story that offers a mirror to the current debates over the role of government in building infrastructure and financing higher education as well as the burden of the national debt. Roger reported for The Wall Street Journal for more than a decade. This interview draws from his just-published book 'Ways and Means: Lincoln and His Cabinet and the Financing of the Civil War.' Note: This podcast was first posted 13th March, 2022.

The U.S. dollar recently traded at par with the euro for the first time in almost 20 years, and the dollar now buys more British pounds than at any time since the mid-1980s. While the strength of the dollar is good for American tourists in the U.K. and the Eurozone and for those in the U.S. purchasing imports from those countries, it presents challenges for American exporters and has other disruptive effects for the world economy.  Why is the dollar so strong? What are the implications for the U.S. and other countries? In the face of these currency swings, does it make sense to reconstitute a fixed exchange rate system in order to promote greater macroeconomic stability? EconoFact Chats welcomes Kathryn Dominguez of the University of Michigan to discuss these issues. Kathryn is a Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan. She is also a member of the panel of economic advisors at the Congressional Budget Office, and is on the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 

Inflation erodes purchasing power, but the reported inflation rate can mask very different experiences across groups of people. For example, the current rapidly rising rents and food and energy prices hit lower-income households harder since they spend a higher proportion of their income on these items. Dan Sichel discusses the measurement of inflation and how the single, headline statistic may not fully reveal the range of effects across income groups or categories of goods and services.   Dan is a professor at Wellesley College. He recently served as Chair of a National Academies panel that wrote the report “Modernizing the Consumer Price Index for the 21st Century”. He also worked at the Federal Reserve Board for over 20 years.

The pandemic has resulted in supply chain disruptions, and goods shortages across multiple industries. But few shortages have caught the public’s attention like that of infant formula. Kadee Russ of UC Davis joins EconoFact Chats to discuss some of the structural reasons behind this shortage, focusing on the role of regulation, the power of lobbying, the role of advertising, and the impact of trade restrictions. Kadee also highlights what good government policy for ensuring the supply of infant formula might look like. Kadee Russ is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of California at Davis.

Looking from the early 2000s, the rise in international trade and financial flows seemed almost inexorable. Yet, political opposition to greater integration grew significantly over the past decade. This opposition intensified with the pandemic, which led people to question how dependent they should be on other countries for supplies of essential goods. What does this growing opposition portend for the future of globalization? And how does it play out in the political sphere in the U.S. and in other countries? To discuss these issues, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Jeffry Frieden of Harvard University.  Jeff is a Professor and Chair of the Government Department at Harvard University.

China's economic rise -- which brought hundreds of millions of its citizens out of poverty, and drove about one quarter of global GDP growth over the past two decades, has been among the most consequential events of the past century. However, like many countries, China's economy today faces deep challenges. To discuss some of these challenges, as well as the drivers of China’s growth over the past decades, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Eswar Prasad of Cornell University. Eswar is the Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The Pew Research Center reports that the U.S. public now views inflation as the top problem facing the country, by a wide margin. It's not hard to see why. After decades of low and stable inflation, the U.S. economy is witnessing a rate of price increase unseen since the 1970s and 80s. Why is inflation so high? Who does it hurt most? And what are the prospects for it coming down? Karen Dynan of Harvard University joins EconoFact Chats to discuss some of these questions. Karen is a Professor of Practice in the Department of Economics at Harvard University. She previously served as Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

The S&P 500 index more than doubled between March 2020 and the end of 2021. It has recorded steady losses since then, falling by about 15% as of June 2022 . What determines stock prices? Were stock prices too high before 2022? Are they too low now? More generally, how do we gauge whether stock prices are too low or too high? Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth College joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions. Eric is Professor of Economics at Dartmouth. His expertise is in industrial organization and agency issues in the financial and informational industries.

Racism in the United States has created an enduring wealth gap between Black and White Americans. This gap is rooted both in slavery itself and in the systematic exclusion of Black people from government assistance and social safety programs beginning after the Civil War and continuing through the Jim Crow era and after. Although it’s not easy to capture the magnitude of this injustice, paying reparations to Black Americans is one way to begin to correct it. This week on EconoFact Chats, Professor William (Sandy) Darity Jr. explains the history of the racial wealth gap and why reparations remain necessary today. Sandy Darity is the Samuel DuBois Cook Professor of Public Policy, African and African American Studies, and Economics and the director of the Samuel DuBois Cook Center on Social Equity at Duke University. His most recent book, coauthored with A. Kirsten Mullen, is 'From Here to Equality: Reparations for Black Americans in the 21st Century.' This podcast was first posted on 16th January, 2022.

The United States currently generates 20% of its energy supply from nuclear power; a figure that has been remarkably stable for decades. As the U.S. moves towards a carbon-free energy future, what role is nuclear power likely to play? What are the risks associated with fission power generation and waste storage? To discuss these issues, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Gilbert Metcalf. Gib is a Professor of Economics at Tufts University. His latest book is Paying for Pollution: Why a Carbon Tax is Good for America.

Intervention by the United States government helped the rapid development and large scale production of three COVID-19 vaccines. What were the economic, legal, and political challenges of developing and distributing vaccines in the face of an emerging deadly pandemic? How were these challenges addressed? And what were the successes and shortcomings of these policies? To discuss these issues, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Chad is the Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C., and the host of the podcast Trade Talks that focuses on international trade and its attendant policies.

COVID-driven lockdowns contributed to a sharp drop in the rates of many types of crime, although, the rates of some crimes such as homicides increased in 2020. What explains these divergent trends? This podcast was first posted 17th May, 2021.

Some statistics indicate that the U.S. economy is thriving. Payroll employment rose by nearly 430,000 in March. Unemployment is at 3.6%. Consumer spending and business investment grew strongly in the first quarter of this year. But other statistics are concerning. GDP declined 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022. Inflation is at a 40 year high. Additionally, tighter fiscal and monetary policy, higher gasoline prices, and the broader economic impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine could all weigh heavily on growth. To understand the myriad factors affecting the outlook of the U.S. economy, EconoFact Chats welcomes back a panel of distinguished economic journalists -- Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of the Washington Post.

The year ending July 1st, 2021 marked the slowest rate of population growth in the history of the United States, with the natural increase -- the number of births minus deaths -- at 148,000; one-tenth the typical value a decade before. Much of the slowdown stems from the low birth rate. As of 2020 the U.S. birth rate was 55.8 births per 1000 women of childbearing age; a decline of almost 20% from 2007. What's driving this decline? Melissa Kearney at the University of Maryland discusses her findings on this week's episode of EconoFact Chats. Melissa is the Neil Moskowitz Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland, College Park. She is also the Director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, and a Senior Editor at the Future of Children.

In the 1950s and 1960s, the dollar was as “good as gold” – until it wasn’t. The dollar no longer served as the centerpiece of the world’s fixed exchange rate arrangement when the Bretton Woods system broke apart in the early 1970s. But the dollar has remained, to this day, the dominant currency for international trade and global finance. What advantages does the United States enjoy because of the special role of the dollar? Are other currencies, like the Euro or the Renminbi, or even cryptocurrencies, likely to replace the dollar’s hegemonic position? Megan Greene discusses this topic which has important implications for the United States economy as well as the stability of the world monetary system. Megan is a Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard Kennedy School, and is also the first Dame DeAnne Julius Senior Fellow in International Economics at Chatham House, UK.

As the war in Ukraine continues, sanctions on Russian energy exports have led to a rise in global oil and gas prices. How might the supply disruptions, rising prices, and the growing political urgency in Europe to reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas shape our energy future? Are we likely to see environmentally harmful short-run effects as countries scramble for additional sources of hydrocarbons? Could the current crisis accelerate efforts to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels? David Victor at UC San Diego joins EconoFact Chats for a discussion of these issues. David is Professor and the Center for Global Transformation Endowed Chair in Innovation and Public Policy at UC San Diego. He is also co-Director of the University’s Deep Decarbonization Initiative.  

The economic impact of the COVID recession has differed widely across groups of people. Pamela Meyerhofer joins EconoFact Chats to discuss some of these differential impacts, focusing on women's experiences in the labor force, as well as those of frontline workers -- those who were providing essential in-person services and facing the biggest risks at the beginning of the pandemic. Pamela is a post-doctoral researcher in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Montana State University.

COVID-19 has changed much of how we live. For many of us, it's also changed how and from where we work. What have been the effects of working from home on businesses and employees? Now, as many places re-open, will those who had been working from home continue to do so? Will they want to? Will companies be willing to accommodate them? How will working from home affect productivity and people's sense of isolation? This week on EconoFact Chats, Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University joins Michael Klein to discuss the far-reaching implications of working from home.   Nick is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an alliance of governments announced wide-ranging sanctions aimed at punishing President Putin, members of the Duma, and Russian oligarchs. What impact are these sanctions likely to have? How resilient will the Russian economy be to the withdrawal of foreign partners? And how responsive will President Putin be to hardships facing the Russian people, as well as to his more immediate circle? Christopher Miller joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.  Chris is an Assistant Professor international history at The Fletcher School. He is the author of 'Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia.'

Antitrust laws have been part of U.S. legislation since the Sherman Act of 1890, and the Clayton and Federal Trade Commission Acts of 1914. Does existing legislation provide a useful framework to check anti-competitive practices today? This week on EconoFact Chats, Dan Richards discusses the many forms of monopoly and monopsony power, how U.S. regulatory attitudes towards anti-trust have shifted, and what tools are available to address monopolistic practices today. Dan is a Professor of Economics at Tufts University.

Union membership has been declining for 60 years but there are incipient signs of a reemergence. Why did unionization decline and what might be prompting its return? How do unions affect wages, as well as the workplace environment? More broadly, what is the evidence on the effects of unions on overall productivity and public policy? Aaron Sojourner discusses these issues in this week’s EconoFact Chats episode. Aaron is Associate Professor at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management. He served as senior economist for labor at the U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisors for Presidents Obama and Trump.

This week on EconoFact Chats, Giovanni Peri, founding director of the Global Migration Center at UC Davis discusses the many roles that immigrants play in the US economy, how current labor shortages are linked to international travel disruptions and immigration restrictions, and what natural experiments like the Mariel boatlift of 1980 can tell us about the impact of immigration on the wages of native-born workers. Giovanni is Professor in the Department of Economics at University of California, Davis. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

There has been a widening divergence in mortality rates across states over the past four decades. While this is partially explained by differences in education, income and “deaths of despair” -- those related to alcohol, drugs, or suicide -- there are also place-based effects beyond these factors. This week on EconoFact Chats, Ellen Meara discusses the effect of the health environment and state-level policies on mortality rates, and how the breakdown of social safeguards contributes to worse health outcomes. Ellen is Professor of Health Economics and Policy at the T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University and an elected member of the National Board of Medicine.

The American public has always struggled with immigration policy, particularly as it intersects with race, poverty and economic opportunity. This week on EconoFact Chats, Tara Watson discusses her new book co-authored with Kalee Thompson, The Border Within: The Economics of Immigration in the Age of Fear. The book is both an economic analysis of the effects of immigration on the United States economy, and the story of six immigrant families and their struggles. The podcast focuses on the sources and the extent of unauthorized immigration, the net fiscal costs of unauthorized immigration, and policies to address unauthorized immigration under the Obama and Trump administrations. Tara Watson is a Professor of Economics at Williams College.  She served as Deputy Assistant Secretary at the US Treasury from 2015 to 2016, and is currently a Rubenstein Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Economic forecasting is rarely easy. This is especially true in the current environment, as the relationship between economic activity and public health metrics such as the percentage of people vaccinated, or the number of COVID cases, remains far from predictable.  Key macroeconomic questions remain. Is higher inflation likely to persist, or will it prove transitory? Will businesses be able to boost productivity despite the tight labor market, and supply chain disruptions? And what are some of the most useful metrics to assess economic recovery in the current environment?  This week on EconoFact Chats, Julia Coronado discusses these questions, and offers her perspective on which metrics best indicate the health of the economy. 

Even as the initial economic shocks of COVID-19 abate, labor shortages, supply constraints, demand shifts, and inflation continue to cloud the U.S.' macroeconomic outlook. To discuss whether these phenomena might prove transitory, or more durable, EconoFact Chats welcomes back a panel of distinguished economic journalists: Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of the Washington Post.  The panelists also break down the major economic stories of the past year, and discuss how labor force participation, wages, inflation, and monetary policy might evolve as the second pandemic year draws to a close.

John Campbell of Harvard University and Michael Klein discuss the links between financial markets and the broader economy.

Economic theories often inform policy choices, but events can call into question these same theories. In this episode of EconoFact Chats, John Cassidy, Staff Writer for The New Yorker joins Michael Klein to discuss how policies based on the advantages of unfettered free markets were challenged by the 2008 financial and economic crisis.  John also discusses other instances of challenges to theories; for example how evidence has given rise to behavioral economics, and the role of psychology and information to guide policy.  John is the author of How Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic Calamities and Dot.Con: How America Lost Its Mind and Money in the Internet Era.

Nationalist economic policies, including rising opposition to free trade, skepticism of international institutions, and anti-immigrant sentiment, are on the rise at a time when the pandemic and climate change are making international cooperation more necessary than ever. This week on EconoFact Chats, Michael Klein speaks with Maurice Obstfeld, widely recognized as one of the world's leading experts in international economics, on the tensions between globalization and economic nationalism – the historical context, current challenges, and the prospects for the future. Maury Obstfeld is Professor of Economics at U.C. Berkeley. He formerly served as Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund, and as a Member of the Council of Economic Advisors.

Even as overdose deaths from opioids in the US reached a disturbing peak of 69,000 in 2020, monthly state-level data for 2021 suggests that overdose deaths are on pace to rise even further; likely driven by a combination of increased stress, reduced access to care, and a greater prevalence of more lethal drugs. This week on EconoFact Chats, Alicia Sasser Modestino of Northeastern University discusses the origins of this ongoing public health crisis, how the problem has evolved over the decades, and what role there is for public policy, as well as for individuals in addressing this epidemic. Alicia is an Associate Professor at Northeastern University. She has also been a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Her research focuses on public policy issues affecting labor, housing, and health care.

High inflation has become a central concern. After four decades of low inflation, the so-called ‘great moderation,’ the key question is whether the current situation portends a return to the high and rising inflation of the 1970s, or whether we are seeing a temporary blip due to supply chain disruptions and other effects of the pandemic. Looking at a finer-grained analysis of the price changes of individual goods and services offers some insight. Alberto Cavallo, a pioneer in gathering and using online micro-data, joins EconoFact Chats this week to discuss the major takeaways from his analysis of over a billion prices. Alberto is an associate professor at Harvard Business School. He co-founded The Billion Prices Project, and Price Stats -- the leading private source of inflation statistics in over 20 countries.

Michael Klein and Jacob Hacker of Yale University discuss the politics behind the enactment, sustainability, and expandability of economic policies.

How can journalists present statistics in a way that is both understandable and accurate? Why are data visualizations sometimes misleading rather than informative? As newspapers scale up their data coverage, journalists are developing insights into how best to report complex statistics without misrepresenting them. This week on EconoFact Chats, Michael Klein and Ben Casselman of the New York Times discuss the nuances of communicating economic data to a broad audience.

How do laws affect commerce between nations? Are WTO decisions routinely biased against the interests of the United States? What are the biggest legal challenges to the international trading system? What role do labor standards and the protection of intellectual property play for international trade? This week on EconoFact Chats, Joel Trachtman, a leading scholar of of international trade law, discusses how national and international legal systems impact trade between nations.

Even as the popularity of cryptocurrencies grows, debates surrounding their viability as a medium of exchange, a store of value, and as an investment remain contentious. In this episode of EconoFact Chats, Eswar Prasad of Cornell University joins Michael Klein for a discussion of how cryptocurrencies work, the ways in which they differ from central bank digital currencies, issues surrounding the regulation of cryptocurrency, and the environmental impact of mining cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

Tom Frieden (former Director, CDC) highlights factors that make COVID-19 particularly deadly, the importance of good governance in slowing its spread, and the need for better primary care in underserved areas.

Lisa D. Cook discusses her work on how the Tulsa Massacre raised questions among African Americans about their equal protection under the law, and how this led to a nationwide falloff in patents awarded to Black inventors.

Economics has changed, with new areas of inquiry such as behavioral economics, the role of information, and network and contagion effects. Economics students have also changed, coming from more diverse backgrounds, representing a wider range of ages, and having broader career and life interests. The economy has changed as well, due to the 2008 financial crisis, the rise of the digital economy, the effects of COVID-19, and the growing importance of services. As we begin the new academic year, EconoFact Chats interviews Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers (University of Michigan) on the way they have addressed these changes in their new Principles of Economics textbook. Betsey and Justin also discuss their efforts to make the teaching of economics more inclusive, to draw to the subject women and people from underserved minorities. Note: This podcast was first published on 7th September, 2020. It was recorded on 13th August, 2020.

Trade restrictions are a common theme on campaign trails, and the general public is often suspicious of the net benefits of trade. Are these suspicions warranted? This week on EconoFact Chats, Michael Klein, and Kadee Russ of the University of California at Davis discuss the current landscape of international trade.

University of Maryland professor Melissa Kearney joins EconoFact Chats host Michael Klein to discuss the scope and causes of child poverty in the U.S. and policy efforts to alleviate it.

The gender pay gap in the United States has narrowed over the last 50 years, but today women still earn about 20 percent less than men. In this episode of EconoFact Chats, Francine Blau joins Michael Klein to discuss the gender pay gap, female labor force participation in the US, and the push to reduce gender discrimination, specifically in the economics profession. Francine is the Frances Perkins Professor of Industrial and Labor Relations, and a professor of economics at Cornell University. For her contributions to the economic analysis of labor market inequality, she became the first woman to receive the Institute for the Study of Labor Prize. Note: This podcast was first published on 1st March, 2021. It was recorded on 17th February, 2021.

Michael Klein, and Binyamin Appelbaum, lead writer on economics and business for The New York Times Editorial Board discuss Binyamin’s book The Economists’ Hour. The discussion focuses on the history of economists influencing public policy, and the limitations of free markets in solving issues like inequality. Note: This podcast was first published on 26th October, 2020. It was recorded on 14th September, 2020.

Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman joins Michael Klein for a discussion on globalization, global trade patterns since the late 19th century, trade policy, protectionism and tariffs, and industrial policy. They also discuss the economics of geography, and the importance of communicating clear economic models. Krugman is a Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. He is the author of numerous books, including most recently Arguing with Zombies Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future. (Note: This podcast was first published on 21st February, 2021. It was recorded on 16th February, 2021).

The high and rising inflation of the 1970s caused widespread economic insecurity, raised fundamental questions about the government's ability to manage the economy, and caused macro-economists to doubt many of their theories. Now, as inflation rises after a decades-long lull, economists and policy-makers are faced with a key question: is the current rise in prices transitory; driven by supply chain issues and COVID stimulus spending, or are we likely to see a more sustained increase in prices? This week on EconoFact Chats, Jay Shambaugh of George Washington University joins Michael Klein to discuss the prospects for ongoing inflation, and the ways in which inflation affects your economic well-being.

The move to remote learning in high schools and kindergartens has proved among the more pervasive disruptions of COVID-19. Hardest hit have been those without access to technology, or adequate places to do schoolwork at home -- a group in which low-income students and students of color are overrepresented. While the government has made resources available to school districts to address learning disruptions, questions of how to best deploy these monies remain. Nora Gordon, among the country's leading experts on education policy and finance, joins EconoFact Chats to discuss policy responses to learning loss in the wake of COVID-19.

James Stock, professor at Harvard University, and a former member of the Council of Economic Advisers joins EconoFact Chats this week to discuss the role of economic policy in slowing climate change.

Julia Coronado, president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, joins EconoFact Chats this week to describe how she and her team organize their thinking and analysis of the U.S. economy at a time when the pandemic has disrupted the conventional models and rules of thumb that forecasters traditionally use.

New York Times economics reporter, and EconoFact Board Member Eduardo Porter speaks with Michael Klein about his book, American Poison: How Racial Hostility Destroyed Our Promise.

Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, Jason Furman joins EconoFact Chats this week to discuss the economy’s emergence from the COVID-19 recession.

David Deming (Harvard) discusses why manufacturing jobs are no longer a straightforward path to the middle class, and why greater investments in public colleges can help more people get well-paying jobs in a changing economy.

Doug Irwin (Dartmouth College) joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats this week to discuss how ideas about free trade have changed over the last 250 years.

With over 1 in 7 children living in poverty in 2019, the United States is an outlier among rich nations. It doesn't have to be this way, according to University of California, Berkeley professor Hilary Hoynes.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics lays out evidence for the U.S.'s retreat from globalization, and its potential consequences.

A discussion with Matt Kahn, director of Johns Hopkins' 21st Century Cities Initiative on what causes some cities to grow, while others shrink.

EconoFact Chats draws on a panel of distinguished economic journalists to discuss what the Biden Administration has achieved in its first 100 days, and the challenges it faces over the coming year.

Eric Rosengren, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, discusses financial stability issues in the wake of the COVID crisis, and some ways to address them.

Michael Klein and Ken Rogoff discuss the ways in which large-denomination bills facilitate criminal activity, tax avoidance, and corruption.

Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics joins Michael Klein to discuss China's role in the global economy, as well as the international cooperation involved in COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing and distribution.