HUGE Earnings - Most impactful week of quarter. China continues to try to save markets Push Back? Powell Meets Markets Wednesday. PCE - FED FAV - The Latest. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up -  Jury Duty? - Big Week for ECO - Jobs Report Friday - Penmanship - making a comeback? - Is this a Capitulation Moment - China? -- War Brewing - Dragging US into Mid-East Conflict? Market Update - HUGE Earnings - Most impactful week of quarter - China continues to try to save markets - Push Back? Powell Meets Markets Wednesday - PCE - FED FAV - The Latest PODCAST DEAL - Sirius XM Holdings Inc. has acquired certain exclusive rights to SmartLess, the hit podcast hosted by actors Will Arnett, Jason Bateman and Sean Hayes, as part of a larger deal between the satellite radio company and SmartLess Media. - The three-year accord is worth more than $100 million, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified. SUPER- Bowl - Tickets to attend the Super Bowl in Las Vegas — a rematch between the 2020 contenders — are the most expensive ever for the event, going for an average $9,815 each so far, according to reseller TickPick. - The price is 70% more than last year’s game, which was held in Arizona. The previous record of $7,046 was set in 2021 in Tampa, Florida, when the game was played at sharply reduced capacity Rate Hike Probabilities - First move for markets from Oct '23 was the HOPE and LOVE of Fed Rate Cuts to come - As soon as March - (The we got the AI 'rager' that helped support Bull markets) - - NOW, Rate CUT hopes fading - markets ignoring facts --- Rate Cut Chart Odds - Fading Rate Cut Odds Reporting this week: - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft --- Huge components for NAZ100 and S&P500 Microsoft - Microsoft was expected to report a 15.8% jump in quarterly revenue, its best growth in nearly two years, as rising adoption of its products infused with generative AI fuels demand for its cloud services. -- ACTUAL: ---- Microsoft's Q2 revenue was $62.02 billion, a 16% increase, surpassing the estimate of $61.14 billion. ----- Earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $2.93, beating the consensus by $0.16. -- Stock even A/H Google/Alphabet - GOOGL company achieved a YoY revenue increase of 13.5%, reaching $86.31 billion, surpassing expectations. - Google Advertising reported $65.52 billion in revenue, showing an 11.0% YoY growth but falling short of expecations. -- Stock Down 4% AH More Earnings - TSLA - Horrible! - Earnings per share: 71 cents, adjusted vs. 74 cents expected. - Revenue: $25.17 billion vs. $25.6 billion expected. - Operating margin for the quarter came in at 8.2%, down from the year-ago quarter's figure of 16% - Tesla said in its investor presentation that vehicle volume growth in 2024 "may be notably lower" than last year's growth rate as the company works toward launching its "next-generation vehicle" in Texas. - Stock down 14% on the news ---- Stock market cap still down 40% since purchase of Twitter in 2022 AMD - - Met expectations but guided DOWN - So much for the big rise based on NOTHING! - Stocks DOWN 10% Tech Layoffs - Silicon Valley’s tech companies are slashing headcount at a rapid pace. - Since the start of January, some 23,670 workers have been laid off from 85 tech companies, according to the website Layoffs.fyi. - Some are laying off staff in parts of the business to invest more heavily in developing AI products. China - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has said that investors will no longer be able to lend out shares for trading purpose...

Those margins - not a pretty look. Trouble in Airlines Space while the love for Apple remains. More Stimulus but hidden in the details. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up -  Trouble in Airlines Space - Apple Love Remains - More Stimulus - Hidden in the Details - BULL TAKE OFF - No Stopping Us Now - Right? (Overconfidence?) Market Update - Bitcoin - Sub $40k on Monday - Why? - Chatter IPO on the  way (again) - New Highs for markets - Pulled by a few stocks - And on The Margin - A Margin Crunch - Rates moving up - VIX moving down DONATIONS - HEY it is 2024! NEW HIGHS - A New Bull Market has just been declared. Out of the  BEAR as we eclipse the previous high set in 2022. Airlines - JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines on Friday said they are appealing a federal judge's ruling issued earlier this week that blocks the two carriers' planned merger on antitrust grounds. - JetBlue had planned to buy Spirit for $3.8 billion in a deal struck in the summer of 2022. A federal judge on Tuesday, however, barred that combination, saying it would eliminate the budget carrier and mean higher prices for cost-conscious consumers. - Spirit  drop 62% last week - trying to recover a bit - BUT, if Sprint fails - doesn't that mean that the elimination of a budget carrier could mean higher prices for cost conscious consumers? ---- They will appeal, give concessions and win. ---- Spirit up 90% since low last week Bitcoin Sinking - Bitcoin sub $40,000 on Monday as the sell-off continues - Blaming it on selling of the GrayScale and beig bought in NEW Sppot ETFs - Thought question: If Selling Apple in Fidelity and Buying in Schwab - does that impact share price? Banks Suing The Fed? - Big banks have hired one of the country’s top trial lawyers and are preparing to sue the Federal Reserve — a nearly unthinkable challenge — if sweeping new industry regulations aren’t watered down. - Eugene Scalia, the son of the former Supreme Court justice and a well-known conservative litigator, is quietly drawing up a lawsuit seeking to block the proposed rules on behalf of the Bank Policy Institute, a trade group that represents JPMorgan, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and others, people familiar with the matter said. - It would be the first time in recent memory that the industry has sued the Fed, and a departure from standard halls-of-power persuasion efforts that try to avoid antagonizing its chief regulator. More Airlines - The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recommended that airlines operating Boeing 737-900ER jets inspect door plugs to ensure that they are properly secured after some operators reported unspecified issues with bolts upon inspections. - Regulators have stepped up scrutiny on Boeing after a Jan. 5 mid-air panel blowout on an eight-week-old Alaska Airlines MAX 9 jet that left a gaping hole in the aircraft. Boeing has sought to contain the damage, appointing an independent advisor to examine quality control in its manufacturing processes while numerous planes remain grounded. - In its new "Safety Alert for Operators," the FAA said that some airlines had conducted additional inspections on the 737-900ER mid-exit door plugs and had noted "findings with bolts during the maintenance inspections." Apple - - Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab ended Samsung Electronics' 12-year run as the largest seller of smartphones in the world, after commanding a 20% market share in 2023, according to a report from International Data Corp. - Samsung ended the year with a 19.4% share, followed by China's Xiaomi, Oppo and Transsion,

- BIG News - Apple loses to.... - World Economic Forum Davos Happening - Picking on Rich Peeps AGAIN - let them eat stimulus! - Best of CES? - EVs getting some shade thrown - Bitcoin ETF approved PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - BIG News - Apple Loses to.... - World Economic Forum Davos Happening - Picking on Rich Peeps again - Best of CES? - EVs getting some shade thrown - Bitcoin ETF approved Market Update - Natural Gas price on the move - huge jump - 3 downgrades for Apple last week - Bank earnings - mixed, but could say disappoint - Another Stop-gap bill to AVERT a government shutdown Can You Believe this? - Microsoft ended Friday's U.S. trading session as the most valuable publicly traded company, surpassing Apple after briefly topping the iPhone maker during intraday trading on Thursday. - Shares of Microsoft climbed more than 3% for the week, bringing the company's market cap to $2.89 trillion, while Apple's stock dropped by over 3%, lowering its valuation to $2.87 trillion. More Apple - Apple said on Thursday that former Vice President Al Gore will retire from the company's board next month after serving as a director since 2003. - Other: 3 Downgrades last week! (Stock still up 2.5% for the week although down 3.5% for the year 2024 More Wealth News - Just in time for Davos - pick on the rich - LET THEM EAT STIMULUS! - The world's five richest men have more than doubled their vast wealth since 2020, according to an Oxfam report, as the charity calls for curbs on "corporate power." - The report found that the combined fortune of the world's wealthiest people — Tesla CEO Elon Musk, LVMH boss Bernard Arnault and family, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, and veteran investor Warren Buffett — has jumped from $405 billion in March 2020 to $869 billion in November 2023. - Seven of the world's ten biggest companies have a billionaire as their CEO or main shareholder, the report found. Meanwhile, the world's richest 1% of people own 43% of global financial assets, according to the research, such as publicly listed instruments like stocks and bonds, along with stakes in privately-held businesses. - "If current trends continue, the world will have its first trillionaire within a decade but poverty won't be eradicated for another 229 years," Oxfam said. Even MORE Davos - The global economy faces a year of subdued growth prospects and uncertainty stemming from geopolitical strife, tight financing conditions and the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, a survey of top economists released on Monday found. - Conducted each year ahead of the World Economic Forum's (WEF) annual meeting in the Swiss resort of Davos, the survey of 60-plus chief economists drawn globally from the private and public sectors attempts to sketch priorities for policymakers and business leaders. (meaningless) - Some 56% of those surveyed expect overall global economic conditions to weaken this year, with a high degree of regional divergence. While majorities saw moderate or stronger growth in China and the United States, there was broad consensus that Europe would muster only weak or very weak growth. - The outlook for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific was more positive, with very high majorities expecting at least moderate growth in 2024. - 70% see financial conditions loosening (rate cuts and stimulus) as inflation slows Speaking of Rate Cuts (NOT) - The European Central Bank may defy market expectations and hold off on starting interest rate cuts during the whole of 2024, the institution's Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said Monday.

Announcing the Winner of the CTP Cup 2024! SECURE Act Benefits for 529 Plans China - turn around in gaming rule discussion Boeing Under Pressure - Loose Nuts? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - And we are back - Happy New year - Welcome to 2024 - Announcing the Winner of the CTP Cup 2024! - SECURE Act Benefits for 529 Plans - China - turn around in gaming rule discussion - Boeing Under Pressure - Loose Nuts? Market Update - Worst start to the year since ... 2015 (Whatever that means) - Market continues to have little muscle memory (Still down for the YTD) - CES getting those AI juices flowing again - BITCOIN ETF - News OUT! WELL- HACKED - Changed - WOW!!! ** Start of year 2024 - Looking for you to write dome reviews on Spotify , Apple Podcasts, Amazon Podcasts - Wherever - spread the word people! Start with this!!!!!!! -Bitcoin on the move - 13 companies filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF - Rumors that some decision will be made early this week - Bitcoin tops $47,000 on the news - May be sell the news moment.. ---- 4:15PM TODAY - UPDATE: Today the SEC grants approval for #Bitcoin ETFs for listing on all registered national securities exchanges. The approved Bitcoin ETFs will be subject to ongoing surveillance and compliance measures to ensure continued investor protection. (SEC Titter) --- 4:27PM Bitcoin down - explained as sell the news BUT- Gary Gensler private account:  @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products. ---- SO, was this a not approved or a not approved YET???? Podcasts Rule - Killing the Competition (or??) - Radio giant Audacy has filed for bankruptcy protection amid a slump in advertising revenue. - The Philadelphia-based company, which oversees major podcast and radio operations and has acquired CBS Radio, said it has filed a Chapter 11 petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas after a restructuring agreement with a majority of its debtholders. - The agreement will see the company cut roughly 80% of its nearly $2 billion in debt. No Ceiling - The U.S. federal government's total public debt has reached $34 trillion for the first time, the U.S. Treasury Department reported last week. - Each party is blaming the other - Biden plans to reduce U.S. deficits by $2.5 trillion over 10 years by increasing taxes on large corporations and wealthy Americans and cutting spending on pharmaceuticals and tax breaks for oil companies. - Trump wants the tax cuts to be permanent. Bad Start - Traders hoping that a pan-markets year-end rally would pick up where it left off got the opposite on 2024’s first trading day, a session that featured one of the worst-ever concerted drops in stocks and bonds to start a year.| - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) each fell 0.6% Tuesday, the first time they’ve both slumped so much to start the year since the bond gauge began trading in 2002. --- First week was not plesant for most areas of the market - Looks like people were holding on to avoid paying taxes in 2023 (April 2024) ----- Then dumped Starbucks - Starbucks app: Coffee giant accused of rigging payments to the tune of nearly $900 million over 5 years - This is the probelm with gift cards and these plans - so much is forgotten about - “Starbucks rigs its payment platform so consumers are encouraged to leave unspent money on their cards and apps,” said Chris Carter, campaign manager for the group in a statement.

All sorts of good stuff in this episode. From M&A to the quick banking crisis of 2023. Some good laughs and fun throughout the year. Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!   DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Follow Ryan on Twitter  

Apple watch ban - stock unaffected. A surprise with housing prices. A grab-bag bull phrase being dusted off. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Slow volume - boring market (you know what they say) - China is testing some market moving ideas - New Year Coming - markets Closed Monday - Another GRAB-BAG Phase - Dusted off.... Market Update - The real Santa Claus rally - the final days - House prices - what? - Boosting Buybacks  - One Company - China wrecks markets - for a day Home Price Index - October S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4.9% vs 5.0% consensus - Prior reading was +3.9% Grab-Bag - Bull Phrase - Cash on The Sidelines - The stock market is set to see a significant boost next year, thanks to a record $6 trillion and a growing cash pile in money market funds - according to FundStrat -- (UBERBULL Shop) - - Fundstat's logic: If the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates next year, this would hold more true as the risk-free interest rate on money market funds will also fall. This would make holding cash in money market funds less appealing as compared to putting it in the stock market. China - Gamming - Latest: -- China approved 105 domestic games on Monday, the latest indication that Beijing is softening its stance after its move to tighten industry restrictions led to a $80 billion rout last week. --- The titles included those operated by Tencent Holdings Ltd. and NetEase Inc., China’s two leading game publishers that have been pummeled by Beijing’s new rules. Monday’s approvals show the Chinese authorities support the development of online gaming, an industry association said in a post on WeChat republished by the official Xinhua news agency. - What happened a few days earlier - - On Friday, Chinese officials announced new draft rules aimed at limiting how much gamers could spend and restricting rewards that encourage them to spend more time online. - The announcement was a surprise and ended up spooking investors and sending markets into a tailspin. - Games giant Tencent saw its share price drop as much as 16% while the stock of its rival NetEase tumbled a record 28%. Shares of the social-media service Bilibili, which is popular with gamers, tanked 14%. Consumer Sentiment! - December Consumer Confidence 110.7 vs. 104.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 101.0 from 102.0 - Look at this chart and look at a chart of equity markets - pretty much identical. Wealth Effect is real and will play a significant role in how inflation/disinflation/deflation plays out. Spending Report - Mastercard Spending Pulse reports sales increased 3.1% YoY during the holiday season (Nov 1 trhu Dec 24); NRF predicted spending would increase 3-4% in 2023 - Restaurants (+7.8%), Grocery (+2.1%), and Apparel (+2.4%) had the best performance. - Jewelry (-2.0%) and Electronics (-0.4%) were laggards. China Car Announcement - Nio launched the ET9 EV - The company also confirmed the launch of a low-priced brand called Alps. - Nio will focus on the European market in 2024. - High end is supposedly in competion with the Porche Panarama and the Maybach - The ET9 executive sedan, positioned in the same class as Mercedes Benz’s Maybach and Porsche’s Panamera series, is expected to start delivery in the first quarter of 2025 at an estimated price of 800,000 yuan (S$152,355), Apple Stops Selling Watch - Stock barley budges - Apple on Tuesday appealed a decision to ban imports of its watches based on a complaint from medical monitoring technology company Masimo, after President Joe Biden's administration declined to veto a government tribunal.

The train is leaving the station - get on or get run over. Inflation is turning and now there is what? Fed rally - just in time for Christmas. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024 - More layoffs - End pf year - bullish sentiment and candy cane dreams - AMAZING - NOW Deflation is starting to bubble up - Fed-Ex Earnings... Market Update - Data matters - but only bull case - Yields - next stop? What is it saying about the future economy? - Adobe M&A stopage - Homebuilders - hitting new highs - Hacking - another hit - Supply Chain Redux? Fed Rally - Then Chill - This is getting out of hand... - Just days after a Federal Reserve meeting that penciled in an ample course of interest rate cuts next year, which in turn unleashed a broad rally in financial markets, one of the U.S. central bank's top policymakers pushed back on the ebullience on Friday. - "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now," New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview with CNBC.  (WHAT????) - When it comes to the question of lowering rates, "I just think it's just premature to be even thinking about that" as the central bank continues to mull whether monetary policy is in the right place to help guide inflation back to its 2% target, he said. DEFLATION concept entering the market - Deflation is happening on the "goods" side of the U.S. economy, or the tangible objects that Americans buy, economists said. - For one, a strong U.S. dollar makes imported goods cheaper. Some of those savings get passed on to consumers, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. ----- A strong dollar is a likely contributor to deflation in certain categories like household furniture and appliances, Zandi said. Additionally, weaker demand may be a factor: Households that spent liberally on home goods in the early days of Covid-19 lockdowns are likely no longer doing so, he added. --- Broadly, the pandemic snarled global supply chains, causing shortages that fueled big spikes in prices. Energy costs surged when Russia invaded Ukraine, pushing up transportation and other distribution costs. ------ Now, supply-chain disruptions are largely in the rearview mirror, economists said. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, for example, has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels from historic highs at the end of 2021. - Some prices, like those for airline tickets and eggs, are also falling back to earth after hitting record-high levels. The latter, for example, soared largely due to a historically deadly bout of avian flu among egg-laying hens. Egg and airline ticket prices are down about 22% and 12% in the past year, according to CPI data. Year Over Year November - Not Seasonally Adjusted - Does not include rents/housing. ( A big part of the the CPI index) Deflation - Food/Energy Deflation - All Items (X) Red Sea - War is hell - now ships diverted - Have to go around Cape Horn adding massive time for deliveries - Will this cause any price hikes? - Oil Prices? FedEx Earnings - FedEx shares tumbled 8% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the package-delivery giant lowered its revenue forecast as weaker demand hit sales. - The company said it expects a low-single-digit decline in revenue for the fiscal year, down from a previous forecast for flat sales year-over-year - less that analysts predicted. - It's the second consecutive quarter FedEx has lowered its sales outlook. - Meanwhile - Apple lowered its numbers for several quarters and the stock still rallies (Buybacks) Layoffs Auto - General Motors plans to lay off about 1,300 workers in Michigan starting early next year due to ve...

Up Up Up - Santa will be pleased. Diverging outcomes. Interesting M&A activity and a blast from the past. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024 - Deals - opened and closed - M&A - Two outcomes - same datapaoints - Diverging Outcomes - Caught Red handed - Guess the Bank (again) - Gamestop's new strategy Market Update - Bitcoin Update - Boom and Busting - Just as everyone getting back in - Big News for CRISPR - Big price too! - Gas prices -LOW - OIL - keeps going lower - VIX - 5-year LOW History: Jan. 5, 2022: The Dow hit its all-time high of 36,952.65. Today's Close: 36,577.94 SHAMELESS PLUGS - H&C/JCD VIX - Sub 13 print - - Lowest since 2018! - No Fear - no hedging DataPoints - Soft landing - not much different than a vibrant economy - How do yo have a vibrant economy when Fed trying to slow down? - Data supports hard and soft landing - Diverging outcomes - which is it? Caught AGAIN - Wells Fargo was snared in an industrywide probe into mortgage bankers' use of loan discounts last year, CNBC has learned.| - The discounts, known as pricing exceptions, are used by mortgage personnel to help secure deals in competitive markets. At Wells Fargo, for instance, bankers could request pricing exceptions that typically lowered a customer's APR by between 25 to 75 basis points. - The practice, used for decades across the home loan industry, has triggered regulators' interest in recent years over possible violations of U.S. fair lending laws. Black and female borrowers got fewer pricing exceptions than other customers, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has found. More Competition - AMD! - Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft said at an AMD investor event last week they will use AMD's newest AI chip, the Instinct MI300X. - If AMD's latest high-end chip is good enough for the technology companies and cloud service providers building and serving AI models when it starts shipping early next year, it could lower costs for developing AI models, and put competitive pressure on Nvidia' - NVDA slid for a hot second - then buying happened again.... - AMD stock up to $137 (about 10% from comments) Bitcoin - Bitcoin hit $44,000 last Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds. - Bitcoin down $4200 on this money... - Jamie Dimon thrashes out about crypto - ---"I've always been deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin, et cetera," --- "If I was the government, I'd close it down," M&A - U.S. health insurer Cigna has ended its attempt to negotiate an acquisition of rival Humana after the pair failed to agree on price - Instead - Cigna announced plans to buy back $10 billion worth of shares - Shares rallied 12% on the news - HOW ABOUT LOWERING HEALTH INSURANCE COSTS??? More M&A - An investor group consisting of Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital has made a $5.8 billion offer to take department store chain Macy's private, according to a person familiar with the matter on Sunday. - Is this for real or just pump and dump stunt? - Stock is up 70% in last 30 days - you think anyone knew about this? - WHY would someone buy a dying department store? Real Estate? New Strategy - Ganestop - OH MY - In its quarterly report released last Wednesday night, GameStop announced two changes to its corporate investment plan: 1) company cash can now be used to buy equities instead of just short-term debt, 2) and that Cohen is in charge of the investments. Blast from the Past - Picard, is the lawyer working on collecting for Madoff claims

Everyone is bullish - that seems a bit overdone at this point. Tax Trap - Watch-out! Economic data remains strong - jobs data showing weakness (JOLTS) Bond yields sink - herd mentality and Fed bulls working it. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - So many bulls! Deafening.... (we know what that usually means..) - A new book for young investors - can we discuss or still a secret? - China - credit rating issue - My favorite charade,, scheme, scam of 2023 Market Update - Gold at all-time high! - Bitcoin Update - Moving - Alt assets picking up - good or bad? - Big money into Money markets - watch out for this trap Bitcoin - Bitcoin hit $44,000 on Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds. - Bitcoin is up 55% from the year's low of $26,533 on Oct. 11. - UP 165% YTD - Still way off record high of $69k - Nov 2021 Gold - Hitting ATH -- Reasons?? Risk -off or USD sinking? - Gold miners ETF still 10% below 2023 peak --- Time to buy? Rare Earth Metals - Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for electric vehicles, cell phones and other electronics. - China began to rapidly expand in the industry starting during the 1980s and now controls 87% of global rare earths refining capacity - US spots in Alaska and other western states starting to look for ways to mine - in "clean" and efficient manner - FYI - RARE is not really rare - Considered RARE only due to difficulty in extraction process - These elements rarely exist in pure form; they are usually found within other minerals, making them costly to mine. Oil Prices - Now Sitting at $72 --- OPEC+ can't seem to agree and now concern demand waning CHINA - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded its outlook on China's government credit ratings to negative from stable - Moody's expects Beijing's support and possible bailouts for distressed local governments and state-owned enterprises to diminish China's fiscal, economic and institutional strength. - Moody's though retained China's "A1" long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds, - Seems like this is going to be happening for a while - rolling downgrades of countries with excessive debt Canada - Greater Toronto Area home prices fell in November as higher borrowing costs crimped affordability, while the level of sales edged higher for the first time in six months - The seasonally adjusted average home price fell 2.2% in November from October to C$1,104,062 ($815,769), marking the fourth decline in the last five months. - New listings climbed 16.5% year-over-year but decelerating from the 38% pace of increase posted in October. Switzerland - A major Swiss bank admitted to conspiring with U.S. taxpayers and others to hide over $5.6 billion from the Internal Revenue Service - Banque Pictet, the private banking division of the 218-year-old Pictet Group, will pay about $122.9 million in restitution and penalties as part of an agreement with prosecutors - Where does that money go? - Between 2008 and 2014, the bank had 1,637 accounts on behalf of American clients, who collectively evaded approximately $50.6 million in U.S. taxes, the DOJ said. - The accounts themselves held more than $5.6 billion of the roughly $20 billion in total assets from U.S. taxpayers that the bank managed during the relevant period. ----- Does taxpayer have to pay anything? - Swiss banks are not so special anymore... VIX and Gamma - An epic rally in U.S. stocks has sent Wall Street's fear gauge to a post-pandemic low.

Heading toward the barn - traders looking for Santa to come though for December November was a pretty spectacular month for stocks... Oil - OPEC+ making some moves - crude prices diving. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Announcing the Winner - CROC's and Entries for the CTP Cup 2023 - Thanksgiving is over - heading into the end of the year and investors appear excited - More strikes on  the horizon - Black Friday numbers are in - surprise - no surprise| - Temporary Cease Fire - Extended a few days - A Limerick Market Update - Short week - great month.... Best month in 2023 for most indices - AI got its grove back - Microsoft saved the day ! - -  VIX hits low since the pandemic -  KRI indicator +4 and holding with several clusters - Yields holding down - Housing numbers poor and economy slowly slowing - OIL! OPEC+ delays meeting - oil plunges on Wednesday... - Fed Parade of Talking heads is at it again.... Following: - Slap in Face? OpenAI not anticipated to offer MSFT a board seat on its new board, according to The Information - "It’s a sign that the board will prioritize safety practices ahead of investor returns." Word Watch - Seeing this word starting to seep into all sorts of areas - "ELEVATED" - Schwab ad: "An elevated experience tailor made for trader minds" - Pinky up! December - Traders and Investors heading for home.... - Santa Rally is a possibility, especially if we see a quick dump to get rid of some of this froth.... - So much bad news is baked in and plenty of momentum - USD breaking below the 50-day - good for stocks  and commods VIX - FRIDAY - The VIX index of implied volatility on the S&P500 plunged to its lowest close since just before the COVID-19 shock unfolded in 2020 - an extreme some fear will inspire demand for options hedging and reversion back toward historic mean. It ticked back up to regain a foothold above 13 today. - This is interesting as other metrics are calling for extreme overheat - KRI +4 and holding with clusters (+5 or +6 is very concerning) - S&P 500, NASDAQ all high (HIGH) levels of RSI - Spearman +97 (HIGH) ----- McClellan +137 (complex above zero line) Markets Love it! - Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) in Q&A says if inflation continues to fall for several more months, the policy rate could be lowered; if there is a consistent decline in inflation, no reason for rates to remain really high Black Friday Update - Cut and paste every year - US online revenue up 7.5% from last year: Adobe Analytics  (NOTE: Nominal - not adjusted for inflation) - Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US, Adobe Analytics reported, offering a positive sign for retailers facing lackluster sales forecasts for the holiday season. - Demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment helped boost the day’s online sales by 7.5% compared with last year. - Consumers extended their budgets by leaning on buy-now, pay-later options, which climbed by 72% from the week before Thanksgiving (AFRM stock?) --- On the other hand: US Black Friday sales rise 2.5%  (less than anticipated) according to Mastercard and  many looking for bargains - E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year as consumers shopped for deals online, while in-store sales increased by 1.1%, MasterCard Spendingpulse said. Bank Closures  (JCD) - Big banks like PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase filed for closing several of their branches in multiple states last week amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns over the past years. - Altogether, banks filed for shutting down 64 branches.

AI technology in the hot seat. Apple gives in to pressure on messaging Short week - plenty of action. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - CROCs CTP is almost over - 4 days until end... Then December starts the CTP CUP 2024! - - Back from an RCL cruise- my, have things  changed -  Market starting to overheat (KRI +5) - End of Year - Santa Claus Rally - on schedule - PSI - Markets Closed Thursday and after 1pm Friday - Big doings in Crypto World - Pied Pipers (Binance now in hot water) Market Update - WEIRD Action - in the AI Space - Fire, Quit, Oust and then Hire - USD continues to fall - VIX has a 13 handle - BIG news - NVDA earnings What in the? - Sam Altman pushed out over the weekend.... --- Hair on FIRE in Silicon Valley - - Weekend scramble - MSFT picks up Altman to hear AI Unit - Hundreds of OpenAI employees have signed a letter demanding the board resign or face an employee exodus to Sam Altman’s new venture at Microsoft “eminently.” - What is going on? MORE OpenAI - OpenAI named ex-Twitch boss Emmett Shear as interim CEO - Commercialization of product seems to be at the heart of the matter - Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella said in posts on X that Altman would become CEO of a new research group inside the software maker, along with other departing OpenAI colleagues such as outgoing President Greg Brockman who quit following Altman's ouster. --- Was there a deeper and darker plan here? Hmmm- This sounds Off - OpenAI customers are looking for the exits, signaling a possible exodus of business that could devastate the startup. - More than 100 OpenAI customers contacted OpenAI competitor Anthropic over the weekend, a startup that has raised billions from both Amazon and Google in recent months, according to someone familiar with the situation. - Sounds like companies trying to create a corpse and pick on  its remains or manufactroversy - A manufactured controversy is a contrived disagreement, typically motivated by profit or ideology, designed to create public confusion concerning an issue about which there is no substantial academic dispute. This concept has also been referred to as manufactured uncertainty.  BitCoin ETF - I was interviewed about this very topic last week by Paul Barron (he intimated I was a boomer - look up the view) - The US Securities and Exchange Commission has deferred making a decision again on whether to approve the first US exchange-traded fund that invests directly in Bitcoin. - The primary US securities regulator deferred on filings from Franklin and Globe X, according to documents Friday. The deferrals come after delays for other filers because both companies had put More Crypto Crap - Changpeng “CZ” Zhao is stepping down as CEO of Binance as part of a major $4 billion settlement between the Department of Justice and the cryptocurrency exchange he founded, according to sources close to the discussions with the agency. - The settlement will be with the DOJ and Commodities Futures Trading Commission; the Securities and Exchange Commission is not participating. - As part of the settlement, Zhao will also plead guilty to anti-money laundering charges brought by the Department of Justice. He is scheduled to enter the plea in federal court in Seattle on Tuesday afternoon, the Wall Street Journal reported. - Binance, the DOJ, CFTC, and SEC had not replied to requests for comment at the time of publication. - The SEC charged Binance, and its founder CZ, in June with operating an unregistered exchange and misleading investors by using a Switzerland-based fund Sigma Chain, which was also owned by CZ,

Only days until money runs out - will the government shot-down? Markets on the herky-jerky, thanks to the Fed and Mr. Powell. Major retail earnings out this week - winners and losers. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - 4-days until shut- down / anyone  care? (Shut up about shut-down already - Moody's angry - Moves US rating outlook - Croc's CTP Still Open of Entries| - Thanksgiving - What are we doing - menu items! - BOOM!  CPI dips a bit ad market RAMP (KRE up 7% IWM up 5%+) Market Update - Herky Jerky - Thanks to Fed - Big names continue to push up index values - KRI +2 Slight Overheating - Retailers earnings this week, Walmart, Target Etc -- Consumers in the spotlight Moody's - Moody's on Friday changed the outlook on the government of United States of America's ratings to "negative" from "stable". - The rating agency said it expects United States' fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability. - Moody's affirmed the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings at "Aaa". - Another wake up call to the administration/govy of US to get their shot together. Fed - Powell was in push-0back mode on Thursday on a speech that he clearly stated that there is probably more work to be done to conquer inflation - "If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so," Powell cautioned a market still betting both that rate hikes are done and that three cuts are coming next year, starting as soon as June. - Same day as the Bond market glitch, which as problematic - Not to worry, by Firiday no-one believed Powell an ran markets up hard (one of the best days for NAZ100 in 2023 Consumers - The consumer took a spending break ahead of the holiday season, with October retail sales, excluding autos and gas, falling by 0.08%, and core retail, which also removes restaurants, declining by 0.03% (CNBC Monitor) - The October data showed weakness in gas station sales, electronics and appliances and furniture and home stores. There was strength in sporting goods and hobby stores and non-store retails, or internet sales, along with health and personal care. Ransonware Attack - Biggest bank - Could this be the reason Treasury auction last Thursday was so weak (smacking down markets) - Sources told Bloomberg that ICBC Financial Services, a U.S. subsidiary of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, relied on the offline system to process trades of U.S. Treasuries after it was hit by a ransomware attack on Wednesday. - It could take days to reconnect ICBC to the electronic settlement system, Reuters reported. - Analysts say the attack, which disrupted the U.S. Treasury market on Thursday, was likely the work of LockBit, a Russia-linked criminal gang that was also accused of hacking Boeing earlier this year. Today, the group claimed responsibility in messages to reporters. Planes! - Emirates Airline on Monday announced an order for 95 Boeing aircraft at a value of $52 billion, kicking off the first major deal of the 2023 Dubai Airshow. - The state-owned flagship Dubai carrier, a subsidiary of Emirates Group, is ordering 55 additional Boeing 777-9s and 35 of its 777-8s, bringing the airline's total orders for the 777X widebody jets to 205 units. It is also updating its order of Boeing 787 Dreamliners from 30 to 35, comprised of 15 787-10s and 20 787-8s. - Being up 3% on the news Interesting... - Exxon aims to become a top lithium producer for electric vehicles with Arkansas drill operation - Exxon earlier this year purchased 120,000 acres of a geological site in southern Arkansas called the Smackover Formation that is rich in lithium.

Markets on fire - is it for real? Announcing a new Closest to the Pin! Household debt update - market thoughts and more... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Following up on last week's data deluge - Wondering - was it a DCB or a BMR (Dead Cat Bounce - Bull Market Rally) - WeWork is now WeBroke - 70 hour workweek? - GUILTY -Another Shutdown countdown Market Update - Household Debt reaches milestone - South Korea "leveling the playing field" - Best week of 2023 - Apple Earnings (Does anyone care?) - Microsoft - Big Move Headline - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on track for their longest streak of gains in two years, as a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields buoyed megacap growth stocks and investors sought more clarity on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. - Best week of 2023 - NASDAQ up 6%! Microsoft - Big Move! - OpenAI and other AI has been good tailwind for the company - Stock closing in on ATH -- H&C Clients own the stock MSFT CHART FOLLOW UP : What to Expect from the Data Deluge - ISM on Friday (Services) - 53 vs 53 last - Employment - 160k and 3.8% (steady) - ISM Manufacturing 49 vs 49 (contraction) - FOMC Rate Decision (pause/pass/no change) - (Add in Treasury  issuance needed to make up deficit and  Apple earnings) ----- Result? Pretty much inline - Fed said one thing: Risk balanced about doing too much or too little and market went bananas --------Apple - Not impressive and outlook for this coming quarter not so good - but stock moves higher Countdown - November 17th is the end of the short-term budget extension Apple Earnings - EPS: $1.46 per share vs. $1.39 per share expected - Revenue: $89.5 billion vs. $89.28 billion expected - iPhone revenue: $43.81 billion vs. $43.81 billion expected - Mac revenue: $7.61 billion vs. $8.63 billion expected  - iPad revenue: $6.44 billion vs. $6.07 billion expected - Wearables revenue: $9.32 billion vs. $9.43 billion expected - Services revenue: $22.31 billion vs $21.35 billion expected - Gross margin: 45.2% vs. 44.5% expected - - Outlook - Not Great - and blamed one  less week in the 4th quarter on outlook -  - - Stock Down initially then rose with  market Skinny Drugs - Novo Nordisk said on Thursday it will supply "significantly" more doses of Wegovy in the U.S. next year, even as it cautioned shortages of the weight-loss injection would continue in the short to medium term. - The Danish drugmaker, which this year overtook LVMH as Europe's most valuable listed company, posted record operating profit and sales for the third quarter, underscoring the phenomenal success of Wegovy so far. -"Specifically on the U.S. market, we'll be supplying significantly more in 2024 compared to what we are in 2023," Novo's CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen said in an interview. - H&C clients own NVO for past several months More Drugs - - Moderna said its 2023 sales would only hit the low end of its $6 billion to $8 billion forecast, reflecting weaker demand for COVID-19 vaccines, and its shares slumped 8%. - The vaccine maker also pushed back to 2025 - Stock down 59% YTD Household Debt - "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows total household debt increased by $228 billion (1.3%) in the third quarter of 2023, to $17.29 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed's nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. - Mortgage balances rose by $126 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $12.14 trillion at the end of September. - Credit card balances increased by $48 billion ...

Apple earnings are this week, along with a Fed rate decision, Treasury supply and  the Employment report. A deluge of data over the next few days. War time markets - skittish and on edge. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - End of Earnings Season - Droop - Big Week - Treasury $, Apple Earnings, Fed Rate Decision and BLS Employment - All of a sudden - export bans may hurt chip companies (after denying any material impact) -Big prediction on oil prices (but market thinks otherwise) ------ Oil signalling less concern - EV's all of a sudden a cold shoulder Market Update - Apple News - Weird time of day (8pm Monday) - Biden AI Executive Order - May hit some stocks - Strikes just about over in Car Country - big costs - Data deluge this week - expect investors to be on edge OIL Prediction - World bank out with prediction - Worst case scenario, if war widens could result in increased food prices worldwide - If no expansion - oil will average $81 next year - Medium disruption - prices up 35% - Large disruption - prices could go up 50-75% Market Technical View - Defined Channel - DOWN MARKET TREND What to Expect from the Data Deluge - ISM on Friday (Services) - 53 vs 53 last - Employment - 160k and 3.8% (steady) - ISM Manufacturing 49 vs 49 (contraction) - FOMC Rate Decision (pause/pass/no change) - (Add in Treadury  issuance needed to make up deficit and  Apple earnings) Ganging up on Yellen - Several critical comments about Yellen's term as Treasury Secratary and Fed Chair --- Could have issued and locked in VERY cheap rates for long-term (50/00 yer bonds?) ----- Idea is sound, but there are other  considerations that could have been problematic Apple Update - Apple on Monday (at 8PM ET) announced a new MacBook Pro lineup featuring the all-new family of M3 chips: M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max. With a next-generation GPU architecture and a faster CPU, the M3 family brings even more performance and remarkable new capabilities to MacBook Pro. - The new 14?inch MacBook Pro with M3 is not only great for everyday tasks, but also delivers phenomenal sustained performance in pro apps and games. Perfect for aspiring creatives, students, and entrepreneurs, it now starts at $1,599. - The 14- and 16?inch MacBook Pro with M3 Pro provides even greater performance and additional unified memory support, enabling more demanding workflows for users like coders, creatives, and researchers. - The 14- and 16?inch MacBook Pro with M3 Max delivers performance and capabilities that push the limits of computing. - basically - faster chips, new finish to case (black ) - Apple also cut the price of its entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro, from at least $1999 to $1599, although it gets a less powerful M3 chip, instead of the "Pro"-level chip on last year's model. - Note - 3 days before earnings as the Mac sales have been an issue in a decline sales environment (3 consecutive YOY declines) Follow Up - Florida Real Estate - Due to the Sufside building collapse, new laws for reserve set-asides. --- This is on top of the added costs for HOA and COA insurance increaes - “People are going to be losing their homes. Foreclosures are increasing,” warned Broward County Commissioner Mark Bogen. “As it looks right now, there are going to be so many people unable to live in their homes…. This is going to really be a crisis in our state.” - DECADES - condo associations did not put aside enough $ for future repairs, now new law could require rainy day funds ---- (Ultimately this will be retracted if fully implemented as condo prices will crash) - Not limited to Florida Executive Order

Tech earnings are in the spotlight. Fed blackout period on until the next rate decision- coming up. Shutdown - STILL LOOMING! The fishing trip of a lifetime ! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Change of tune   .. inflation is old news - Big tech moving markets - earnings out - AI now to blame for higher costs (lower earnings) - In the heart of earnings season Market Update - Fed holding on to outlook - Worries bout default and no speaker of the house - Earnings continue to confuse as no absolute trend Guatemala - wow epic fishing adventure (just got in 2 hours ago) - 3 days of once in a lifetime fishing - Sailfish, Dorado, YellowFin Tuna (1000's of lbs caught over 3 days) - Spinner Dolphin (porpoise) everywhere November 15th Webinar  "2024 - What's in Store?  Register for the November 15th, 2024 Webinar Back on the attack - A bipartisan group of 33 attorneys general is suing Meta over addictive features aimed at kids and teens, according to a complaint filed Tuesday in a federal court in California. The support from so many state AGs of different political backgrounds indicates a significant legal challenge to Meta's business. - The federal suit also accuses Meta of violating the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) by collecting personal data on users under 13 without parental consent. - The states are seeking an end to what they see as Meta's harmful practices, as well as penalties and restitution. JP Morgan's Dimon -JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said the fact that central banks got financial forecasting “100% dead wrong” about 18 months ago should prompt some humility about the outlook for next year. -Speaking on a panel at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dimon voiced doubts that central banks and governments around the world could manage the economic fallout from rising inflation and slowing global growth. M&A -Chevron (CVX.N) agreed to buy U.S. rival Hess (HES.N) for $53 billion in stock in a deal that reflects top U.S. energy companies drive for oil and gas assets in a world seeking lower-risk future fossil supplies and higher shareholder returns. - We've got too many CEOs per BOE (barrels of oil equivalent), so consolidation is natural," said Chevron Chief Executive Michael Wirth, adding the world could expect to see other deals. Ackman's Change  of Tune - Ackman’s move to exit his short against the 30-year Treasury could be a sign that his main fear is shifting from an overheated economy featuring higher interest rates and inflation to a slowing economy that could fall into recession amid geopolitical risks -   The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests,” Ackman wrote in a Monday post on X, formerly Twitter, adding that “there is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates.” - Remember when he gave the dire warning during COVID   "HELL IS COMING" Stepping it up -The White House on Monday said Iran was in some cases "actively facilitating" rocket and drone attacks by Iranian-backed proxy groups on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria, and President Biden has directed the Department of Defense to brace for more and respond appropriately. - No end in sight - Lot's of discussion how that could actually help to tamp down inflation Davos of the Desert - The annual event is typically used by attendees as an opportunity to build relationships with some of Saudi Arabia's biggest companies and its $778-billion sovereign wealth fund, drawn by the promise of deals as the kingdom embarks on an ambitious reform plan to wean its economy off oil.

More War? More Money? Bond yields surged on latest PPI and CPI Earnings in the spotlight - So far - so good. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Better than expected - again... - More earnings coming this week - (TSLA, BAC, NFLX) - Banks in the spotlight - WAR - seems as if War playbook needs to be brought out and dusted off - Swifty's buy up movie tickets - MORE STRIKES! Market Update - Market in downtrend to consolidating ahead of news - Most markets are looking past the Israel war/issues - Big concern that this will spread and oil prices will keep rising -  War is good? $$$ and maybe the final straw that the Fed is looking at and saying.... Maybe a pause is warranted. November 15th Webinar  "2024 - What's in Store? Israel/Middle East - Does not appear to be an easy way out of this - Israel stock market not ding well - ETF (EIS) down 11% since this all began - US military selects 2,000 troops to prepare for a potential deployment to support Israel, but are not intended for combat, according to WSJ Tesla Earnings Outlook -  Reports Wednesday 10/18 - Annual goal 1.8 million delivered - Margins expected to be at 4-year low of 18.1% (some think could drop below 15%) - FactSet EPS consensus: 0.73 - FactSet Rev consensus: 24.26 bln Tesla Profitibility Trend Stock News - Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech — Shares of Pfizer dropped 1.3% Monday after the company slashed its full-year revenue guidance by $9 billion, noting waning demand for its Covid treatment and vaccine. - Rite-Aid declares bankruptcy (Chapter 11) - LuluLemon - Stock being added to the SP500  (Stock up to to 52 week high) (Taking place of Activision Blizzard - Schwab beat on earnings, a bit light on Revenue - stock initially down, but better than feared - Ferrari has started to accept payment in cryptocurrency for its luxury sports cars in the U.S. and will extend the scheme to Europe following requests from its wealthy customers (remember Tesla accepted for a while then halted program due to environmental concerns) - Mictosoft - Activision Blizzard takeover has been approved by UK regulators... Clearing way for deal to close Other Earnings - BAC Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.90 per share, $0.07 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.83; revenues rose 2.8% year/year to $25.2 bln vs the $25.13 bln FactSet Consensus. - - - - -  -Noninterest expense of $15.8B in 3Q23 increased $0.5B, or 3%, vs. 3Q22, driven by increased investments in the franchise across people and technology, as well as higher FDIC expense from the increased assessment on banks announced in 2022. - - - - - - - Net interest income (NII) up $614 million, or 4%, to $14.4 billion ($14.5 billion FTE)(B) , driven primarily by benefits from higher interest rates and loan growth.. - - - -  - - -Provision for credit losses of $1.2 billion increased $336 million. China - China is considering creating a state-backed stabilization fund to shore up confidence in its equity markets - What does that mean? ---- Fund with lots of money from the state to buy stocks when they are down. The ultimate bailout for investors ---- News out that  State-owned banks are buying state buying other state owned bank shares - that is something special Economics - PPI and CPI both came in hotter than expected this month - Expected and unexpected - Bonds yields rallied initially then hit some technical resistance - - Rate hike expectations ticked up, then moved back as concern over Middle-Eat conflict grows Social Security COLA - 3.2% increase for 2024 for COLA - 8.7% for 2023 - 5.9% for 2022 - - - 18.9% increase in over 3 years!

Jobs report - a blowout. Build the Wall (again). Short squeeze - that was something. What other surprises can the market ignore? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ROFL - Experts have no idea - Strikes still coming - Virginia is cold - Building a Wall! - Announcing the Winner of the CTP for NVDA Market Update - Employment Report Hot - Markets cave and then..... - Next up on list of surprses - Israel conflict (odd market action - but explainable) - Not a surprise - Fed gang talks down rate hike - Once again - entering earnings season - Even more potential strikes JOBS - U.S. employment increased by the most in eight months in September as hiring rose broadly, pointing to persistent labor market strength that could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to raise interest rates again, though wage growth is slowing. - The larger-than-expected surge in nonfarm payrolls last month and sharp upward revisions to July and August's jobs counts reported by the Labor Department in its closely watched employment report on Friday cemented expectations that economic activity accelerated in the third quarter. - Bond yields initially surged, then came back a bit - for whatever reason stocks surged late morning into the end of the day - -  Bond yields came in a bit, but weird situation - still elevated. Looked like a short-cover extraordinaire initially ---- Here is other side of the thinking (bull camp (just keep investing)  - "With bond yields soaring, the dollar strengthening, and equity market volatility increasing there is a renewed tightening of financial conditions that does some of the work for the Fed, so it's not a done deal the Fed hikes rates again," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. ----------The broad increase in payrolls was led by the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 96,000 jobs. Restaurants and bars dominated, with 61,000 positions created, returning employment in the sector back to its pre-pandemic level. Strike is On - Tens of thousands of nurses and other healthcare workers launched a planned three-day strike at Kaiser Permanente facilities across the U.S. on Wednesday, after contract talks failed to meet the union deadline for reaching a settlement. - Only going to get worse - MORE-->  Pharmacy employees at some U.S. Walgreens stores, including pharmacists, technicians and support staff, plan a walkout this week - between Monday and Wednesday - The walkout is in response to what pharmacy employees call burdensome prescription and vaccination expectations placed on pharmacists, the report said. Tesla - Needs to be in the news everyday - clearly this is a general plan by management - Drops prices again after lower unit deliveries - stock ignores the reality - Something weird with the stock recently...Way too much optimism (either manipulation/inside buying/something else?) War - Israel and ... - Big horrible situation in the Mid-East - Oil surges on conflict - Gaza strip cuttoff - ground offensive about to begin - Quite the social media war going on - misinformation on parade ---- Sunday futures get knocked then markets  rally on Monday (see below) Fed - Not Surprising - Top ranking Federal Reserve officials indicated Monday that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which directly influence financing costs for households and businesses, could steer the Fed from further increases in its short-term policy rate and substitute the work done by financial markets for formal monetary policy moves by the central bank. - "We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we have to balance the risk of not having tightened enough,

Yields screaming higher. Big week for economic news that may flip the script. It is official - correction in many sectors and major indices. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from Barbados - Diving good and bad ---ROTI! -- Space Debris - fines being issued - Politicians on trial - Japan car deal - stopped - House Speaker Kevin McCarthy ? Market Update - 10Yr Yield approaching 4.5%   4.8%!!! - 30 Year was 4.65% Friday - now 4.94% - Friday Jobs number important - JOLTS was much stronger than expected today - Ugly market conditions - appears to be The TTBOWTBW coming soon. - UPDATE- Last week: Oversold reading - switched the short small-caps today This week: Closed position after failure to launch DUMB Stuff - Inflation is not some uncontrollable item that we are all victims of. We help to perpetuate inflationary trnds by paying up the prices and spend, spend, spend. If we look at strikes - for more $$ due to cost of living, that is ass-backwards. JCD: Bring Back HUAC? Space Junk - Dish Network Corp. was fined $150,000 by US regulators for leaving a retired satellite parked in the wrong place in space, reflecting official concern over the growing amount of debris orbiting Earth and the potential for mishaps. - “This is a breakthrough settlement, making very clear the FCC has strong enforcement authority and capability to enforce its vitally important space debris rules,” Loyaan A. Egal, the agency’s enforcement bureau chief, said in a statement. - The FCC says it has applications pending for more than 56,000 satellites. - The number of satellites has reached almost 9,000, compared with roughly 2,000 less than five years ago, according to Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at Harvard University. - SPACEX accounts for 4,800 of the total Political Funhouse - Donald Trump on trial in NY (Civil) ---- Outcome could be devastating for his business - Hunter Biden up on gun charges --- President Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden is expected to plead not guilty on Tuesday to lying about his drug use while buying a handgun - Both families need to get in the White House badly so that they will be able to issue pardons. The Issue... - Yields rising...Long-Bond getting hammered - Markets now spooked - Fed hawkish not helping - Govy Shutdown not helping - TLT down 17% in 3 months Long Bond ETF Bond Vigilantes - Benchmark US yields jumped to the highest levels in 16 years Monday, extending an uptrend that began in May. - The latest surge shows Treasuries are detached from their fundamental drivers, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. - The move shows rising alarm at what fiscal policymakers are doing, economist Ed Yardeni says. - The slide in Treasuries has been excessive given recent economic data and Federal Reserve policy, suggesting it’s instead being driven by fears over the swelling US deficit IPO Debacle - Instacart weakness continues as shares are now trading 36% below its IPO opening price of $42; slowing growth and a full valuation are primary culprits for the selloff - What about ARM - about 0% below opening day IPO price - Birkenstock - newest IPO that is being discussed Japan Putting Hammer Down - Japan's move to bar most used-car sales to Russia slammed the brakes on a trade nearing $2 billion annually that had boomed in the shadow of sanctions over Ukraine elsewhere - In early August, Japan's government banned exports of all but subcompact cars to Russia, cutting off a lucrative backchannel in trade in used Toyotas, Hondas and Nissans for a network of brokers and smaller ports - While wiping out Russia's biggest source of used cars,

Markets are pissed - and they have every right to be as Powell dumps markets. Seasonal patters playing out. Could strikes be the next market breaking catalyst? Listen in to what China is doing with US Bonds - not good PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - The Wait for the Fed is over - and the market is pissed - Starting t wonder if there  is another banking scare coming (rate rocketing higher) - We still selling Rosh Hashana  and Buying Yom Kippur? - Weight loss drugs worrying different market segments - Wondering - Next Catalyst for market - Unions Strike Trend? - PSA about COVID Season Market Update - 10Yr Yield approaching 4.5% - Oil taps $92 then comes in to $90 - Bad week for markets - we have some stats - Cisco M&A - Splunk - Oversold reading - switched the short small-caps today Market Commentary The major indices registered sizable declines last week. - Softness in mega caps had a disproportionate influence on index performance, but there was no effort to rotate anywhere else so many stocks came along for the downside ride. -  All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in the red last week. ----- - - - - - The consumer discretionary (-6.4%), real estate (-5.4%), and materials (-3.7%) were the top laggards while the health care sector (-1.2%) saw the slimmest loss. - The catalyst for the weakness was another big jump in Treasury yields. ----- - - - The 2-yr note yield climbed eight basis points last week to 5.12%. --- - -The 10-yr note yield climbed 12 basis points last week to 4.44%. - - - - -  -Including lastweek's move, the 10-yr note yield is up 35 basis points this month. **** Those moves were largely in response to the Fed's hawkish pause on Wednesday. Fed Update Meeting (Briefing.com) - As expected, the FOMC voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. - - - The median fed funds rate estimate for 2023 was unchanged at 5.6% - - - BUT the median estimate for 2024 was 5.1%, versus 4.6% in June. This suggests officials are still leaning in favor of one more rate hike this year it also tells us that there is an expectation that rates will come down by only 50 basis points in 2024, as opposed to 100 basis points when estimates were provided in June. - - - - -The longer-run fed funds rate estimate was maintained at 2.5%, leaving one to infer that the Fed is going to stay committed to its 2.0% inflation target. Other Central Banks - Japan's central bank maintained its ultra-loose policy and left rates unchanged last Friday, mindful of the "extremely high uncertainties" on the growth outlook domestically and globally. - Yen dropped hard on the  news (weakening) - In a policy statement after its September policy meeting, the Bank of Japan said it would maintain short-term interest rates at -0.1%, and cap the 10-year Japanese government bond yield around zero. - Very dovish for Japanese rates (in a world that everything else is inflating) More Other Central Banks - The Bank of England halted its long run of interest rate increases on Thursday as the British economy slowed, but it said it was not taking a recent fall in inflation for granted. - A day after a surprise slowing in Britain's fast pace of price growth, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow margin of 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%. - Are they really using data that is real-time? Stupid as economy moves slowly - they are nuts! China Dropping Treasury Holdings - China has been reducing its US Treasury holding for about 10 years now - China, presumably, drew some conclusions from the Russia invasion of Ukraine (freezing of assets)  and recognized the same cou...

A new Closest to the Pin announced. UAW strike lingers... Fed rate decision ahead. Consumers are feeling the pinch. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Announcing a NEW Closest to The Pin this week - Plenty of interest in new legislation up for vote - Retail worried about holiday season - hiring trends - Clorox Update - Waiting  and Waiting for Fed decision - markets on hold... Market Update - Ugly and the the week - markets spooked on inflation and eco - Wednesday is the day - Fed rate decision meeting - UAW Strike - EU Leaking proof it's decisions - Oil prices starting to pinch Commentary - Overall - markets are in a consolidation mode, eco is relatively strong with a few dispensed pockets of weakness. - Consumers are starting to feel the pinch - Several bears have finally capitulated - that is a concern (another one of those one sided things that is never discussed - when bulls capitulate it is good - when bears capitulate - it is good)" - Oil prices - that is a concern - Yields still rising - China may be bottoming - that is good sign - Inflation - slowing down, but Fed may have more work to do - Earnings outlook - hard to image much better from here - what is important is the forward multiple Fed Heads - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote on Saturday, while also forecasting the U.S. central bank would lift its economic growth projections when policymakers gather next week. - "On November, we think that further labor market rebalancing, better news on inflation, and the likely upcoming Q4 growth pothole will convince more participants that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) can forgo a final hike this year, as we think it ultimately will," the investment bank's strategists wrote in a report. - Current market bet s that there will be no hike this meeting - but potential for hike (0.25%) next meeting Some Legislative Stuff MJ Bill - The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled marijuana banking legislation for a vote on Sept. 27, a much-anticipated move that would advance one of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s top priorities to the Senate floor. - The bipartisan SAFE Banking Act sponsored by Democrat Jeff Merkley of Oregon has bipartisan support, including from the lead Republican sponsor, Steve Daines of Montana, who heads his party’s campaign committee. - Backers of the legislation have been increasingly optimistic they will easily exceed the 60 votes needed - If signed into law, the SAFE Banking Act would enable cannabis-related businesses (CRBs) to transact business by means other than cash Credit Card Legislation - Credit Card Competition Act of 2023 - It would require the largest credit-card issuing financial institutions in the country—those with assets over $100 billion–to enable at least two credit card networks to be used on their credit cards instead of just one, and at least one of those networks must be a network other than the Visa/Mastercard duopoly. - There is concern that this bill will potentially reduce airline (and other) reward points as competition will drive transaction fee prices down and need to drop incentive programs --- - HEADLINES on socialize media and internet about how this bill kills reward programs - however, does not seem that is a true statement - Similar legislation failed to pass in 2022 Oil - Recap of our discussion last week - Oil looks like destined to keep moving to $92 - then what? - Currently trading at $91 - A move above $92 would put $95 in play - as long as OPEC+ keeps with voluntary production cuts Retail Confidence

All the rage - let's test our testosterone - then shave our legs! China has figured it out....How to hurt the USA. Elon - listening in and shutting down? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up -  Big week - Inflation eyed - 10-year near 4.3% - One European country looks the worst - one recession - Biden  - 5-day world tour - Soft landing - everyone talking about it - Oh, Elon Market Update - Not such a great month so far.... - China  starting to panic (that may be good) -- 2 IPOs on Tap - M&A - One food deal announced - Apple .... More China restrictions (interesting) Happy New Year - Rosh Hashana Friday night. Tesla Upgrade - Tesla Inc.’s Dojo supercomputer may add as much as $500 billion to the company’s market value through faster adoption of robotaxis and network services, according to Morgan Stanley. - Dojo can open up “new addressable markets,” just like AWS did for Amazon.com Inc., analysts led by Adam Jonas wrote in a note, upgrading the stock to overweight from equal-weight and raising its 12-month price target to a Street-high $400 per share from $250. - Adam Jonas had a $250 price for Tesla for a while and was not really positive on  the shares. But, many say he likes headlines, so this is a perfect way to play it. - Jonas cut his price and overall recommendation  in June - Tesla shares up 10% on this upgrade (BTW, Morgan is one of Elon Musk's key advisory firms - so there is that) China - Freaking out? - China's financial regulator on Sunday reduced the risk weighting it attaches to insurance companies' holdings of blue-chip shares and tech stocks, encouraging them to invest more in the country's lagging stock market. - The National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR)said on its website that the risk weighting for CSI300 Index constituents would be reduced to 0.3 from 0.35, while that for stocks listed on Shanghai's tech-focused STAR Market would be cut to 0.4, from 0.45. - A lower risk weighting frees up more capital for insurers to invest. - It also set a relatively low risk weighting for private equity investments in China's strategic and emerging sectors. More China - China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan, the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China said on Monday, drawing a contrast with Democratic President Joe Biden, who said it made it less likely. - So this has to be a dividing line as well? Biden on Sunday called China's econ Yen - Japan - In a weekend interview, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could end its 7-year-old negative interest rate policy when achievement of its 2% inflation target is in sight - suggesting the BOJ is considering official interest rate hikes as well as an early end its bond-buying, yield cap policy. - The comments seemed to catch markets off guard, sending the 10-year Japanese government bond yield up more than 5 basis points to a 9-year high above 0.7%. The yen surged 1% against the dollar, knocking the U.S. currency back more generally on the foreign exchange markets. Tech - Qualcomm said Monday that it will supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones through 2026. - Wall Street analysts and Qualcomm officials had previously said they expected Apple to use an internally developed 5G modem starting in 2024. - The continued sales to Apple will boost Qualcomm's handsets business, which reported $5.26 billion in sales in the quarter ended in June, and could soften the blow of potentially losing a critical customer. About 21% of Qualcomm's fiscal 2022 revenue of $44.2 billion came from Apple,

China putting out stimulus ideas daily. Traffic jam in Panama! Weather is causing all sorts of problems Crude oil prices on the rise PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - COVID making the rounds again - J Biden tests positive - Weight loss - UAL Full ground stop today - Gone Private - Back to the Public life (ARM) - More bailouts in China - InfaDisinFlation - Slowing Deflation? Market Update - Hurricane Idalia - The $$ cost to insurers - Employment reports - mixed to good. Fed friendly (but rates creeping again) - What is happening to pharmacies? - GOVY shutdown clock continues - Oil is still rising - Back to School THANK YOU to all who decided it was a good idea to give - we are sending you books for those who graciously donated the special amount to show 666. Employment Report - Revisions to last two months (better) - Payrolls increased to 187,000 - Unemployment rate @3.8% - Rates came down a bit and markets took this as good news VFS Stock China - Continued problems with the economy - New measures over the past week to help real estate sector and lenders - Looks like injection of funds into Country Garden - USD moving to highs against the Yuan OIL - Even though there is a concern about China's economy  - oil keeps rising - Oil prices rose on Friday to their highest in over half a year and snapped a two-week losing streak, buoyed by expectations of tightening supplies. - Saudi Arabia decided to keep (extend) the voluntary cuts into October --- 1 million barrels per day -- Crude oil up 8% YTD - BUT, 21%  in the last 3-months ----- How does that fit with the deflationary story? Supply Chain/Weather Issues - The average wait time for non-booked vessels at the Panama Canal jumped by between 44% and 59% last month as a prolonged drought led to restrictions on daily transits and ship drafts. - The Panama Canal Authority began imposing the restrictions earlier this year in a move to conserve water. Only 32 vessels with a draft of up to 44 feet are now allowed to pass everyday, from 36 ships and maximum draft of 50 feet in normal conditions. - Waiting time averaged 8.85 days for southbound transit and 9.44 days for northbound passage in August, from 5.56 days and 6.55 days, respectively, in July, according to data from the Panama Canal Authority. VinFast - Follow up - OH My - down 70% from peak ARM - Chip design firm Arm on Tuesday submitted an updated filing for its upcoming blockbuster initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, setting a price range between $47 and $51. - Only 9.4% of Arm’s shares will be freely traded on the NYSE. - Arm was previously dually listed in London and New York, before SoftBank acquired it for $32 billion in 2016. Shoot it up! - Novo Nordisk launched its weight-loss injection Wegovy in Britain on Monday, its second debut in Europe in just over a month as the drugmaker seeks to expand in the region even as it struggles to keep up with soaring demand. - Surging demand for the drug, and Novo's highly effective diabetes drug Ozempic, have sent the company's shares and earnings to record highs. - So no problem taking these shots.....(only very recently approved for weight loss as it is a diabetes medicine) - MIRACLE DRUG - Get that shot in the belly roll!| - Danish drugmaker (Novo Nordisk) briefly unseated LVMH as Europe's most valuable listed company in intraday trading on Friday, ending the French luxury group's 2-1/2 year-long reign at the top. COVID - First lady Jill Biden’s positive test for Covid-19 threatens to upend President Joe Biden’s plans to travel to the G-20 summit in India,

We have some insights from Powell's latest speech. China - trying to talk up markets. Big week for eco data - the softer, the better. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Powell Said - NOTHING NEW, Nothing Old, Nothing Really - Unions are next concern for inflation (wages) - Airlines weighing people - Big week for ECO - investors hoping for some weak numbers Market Update - China - Stock Market Support - Govy Trying - markets up last week 0- broke a couple week down streak - End of month - markets watching for employment data this week (Friday) - Players hitting the ask on high-flyers - ESG - not for $ - Crypto Moving on court rulling SPECIAL EPISODE -666. We are asking you for your support on this devlish episode 666 - Donate exactly 66.60 - BUT  Donors that go out for the big $666 will get a copy of Too Many Eggs hardcopy - that is well worth it. Big Bounce - Fed threads the needle again - Or the algos set to just buy as Fed talks - Butting up against resistance - Looks more like oversold bounce into end of month Yields - 10-Year - drops to 4.25 from 4.45% - Plenty arguing that the latest move was a top in rates - Avg mortgage rate tops 7% Yields - Tuesday Drop - Yeilds and USd dumping after soft JOLTs report - This is a good JOLTS report from the Fed's perspective. The labor market is cooling. U.S. job openings decreased to 8.8 million (lower than consensus expectations of 9.5), the lowest since March 2021. The mismatch between labor demand (openings) & labor supply (hired) narrowed. - Growht names moving up - dragging entire market with them Unions - Pushing hard for wage hikes - Big increase for pilots and UPS drivers recently - UAW President is looking for proposals that include: (or threat of a strike) - Ford GM and Stellantis - - 46% raise ---- 32 hour work week --- Return to traditional pensions - Recently won a 25% pay hike for workers at Ohio EV factory Crypto in the News - Appeals court ruling against SEC in Grayscale spot bitcoin ETF case - so the idea is that there will be a more accessible way to invest in bitcoin (like it is not now) |- Could be included in peions - Grayscale Trusts: GBTC +18%, ETHE +14%, GDLC +22%... Crypto Miners: MARA +17%, GREE +17%, HUT +16%, RIOT +15%, BITF +14%, SDIG +14%... Others with Crypto exposure: COIN +13.5%, MSTR +7.7%, NVDA +3% ECO This Week - Wednesday --- ADP Emplyment Change - (180k) --- GDP (2) 2.4% - Thursday ---- PCE Inflation 0.2% (MoM)* - Friday --- Non Farm Payrolls 185k /3.6% --- ISM Manufacturing ---Average Hourly earnings  0.3%  MoM China - manipulated market - China's stock market in disarray - China Evergrande reopens after 17 month tradig halt (Stock plunges 80%) - Government starting to talk up market - been in a funk for a while --- Reduces stamp duty on stock transactions and other measures to boost confidence (and approves dozens of new funds for investing over weekend) ---- Stock market (CSI 300) opened up 5.5% but trended lower all day Monday (closed up 1.5%) - Lenders and Developer hardships spooking investors AND draining their finances More China - China's foreign ministry said on Monday that inbound travelers to the country no longer need a pre-departure antigen test for COVID-19 from Aug. 30. - US study shows that the abrupt end to Covid restrictions last year may have caused an excess of 2 million deaths. --- Study showed an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths from all causes occurred among people over 30 years of age between December 2022 and January 2023, and were observed in all provinces in mainland China (China said a total of 55,

More Talk from Feds - Jackson Hole Confab Another government shutdown looming? Hot Dogs, get Your Hot Dogs! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - US Rates on the move - Jackson Hole Confab this week - Powell talking Friday - Another government shutdown looming? (September) - Russian Moon Landing - Not so good - Hot Dog Wars - Schmuchalucks Market Update - China freaking out investors - not showing big support - The S&P 500 index fell 2.1% last week, extending the market benchmark's losing streak to a third consecutive week as bond yields climbed to highs not seen in years. - The drop came as Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs; the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 16-year high and the 30-year Treasury yield reached a 12-year high - The SPAC is back? IPO opps? Parts of the market still yearning for risk (casino vs investing) - Moody's gets into the fray - cuts bank ratings Yields - Moving - 10-Year tops 4.35%++ - Long-term on a losing streak --- Meaning: High rates for longer being accepted by markets - also spread may narrow on curve - Minutes released this week from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated most committee members saw "significant upside risks" to inflation, which could prompt the central bank to further raise its benchmark lending rate. Long vs. Short 10-Year Pop! Moody's - Moody's cut credit ratings of several small to mid-sized U.S. banks on Monday and said it may downgrade some of the nation's biggest lenders, warning that the sector's credit strength will likely be tested by funding risks and weaker profitability. - Moody's cut the ratings of 10 banks by one notch and placed six banking giants, including Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp State Street and Truist Financial on review for potential downgrades. Inflation - Rice - Rice prices surged to their highest in almost 12 years, after India's rice export ban and adverse weather conditions dented production and supplies of Asia's primary staple food, according to the UN's food agency. Tesla - Tesla shares (TSLA) led the consumer discretionary sector's drop, falling 11% last week as reports said the electric vehicle maker reduced the prices for its premium Model S and Model X vehicles in China, its second price cut in the country this week. - The company also launched two cheaper versions of its Model S sedan and Model X sports utility vehicle in the US. NVDA - Earnings out on 8/23 - a good bit of optimism going into the print - Recent upgrade to the stock - HSBC upped their tgt on NVIDIA (NVDA) to $780 from $600 Odd Tech - Earnings AFTER the close on Friday (last) --- Worried investors - why would a company do that? (Friday Night Dump?) - - - Stock is ramping higher on the news.... - Palo Alto Networks — The security software vendor soared 12.5% following an earning's beat after the Friday market close. Fiscal fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.44, topping the $1.28 expected from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Revenue, however, fell short Earnings Roundup - Fabrinet surged 21% after its fiscal fourth-quarter results late Monday topped analysts' estimates. The advanced manufacturing services company posted non-GAAP earnings of $1.86 per share, greater than the $1.80 earnings per share expected - Dicks Sporting Goods shares plunged nearly 20% after the retailer reported an earnings miss and cut guidance for the year, due in part to an increase in retail theft ----- The tell ? Dicks announced management layoff and cost savings a day before the earnings -  Macy's slid about 1.6% after reporting second-quarter earnings.

Economy on fire in the US - while China sinks to new lows. Housing market sentiment slows - hit by high mortgage rates. Big break for big insurers. The Closest to The Pin Winner! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Musk/Zuck cage-fight news (AGAIN) - FITCH - at it again - M&A in Steel industry - China eco spooks markets (Ghost Economics hits) - Impact of Maui Fires - Focus on A Utility Company Market Update - Sentiment shifting - AI craze dulls some tech selling off - Housing index drops - (builder sentiment) - 7% mortgage rates hit hard - EV price wars - led by Elon (beat them and bury them) - Disinflation is slowing ( Confusing?) Inflation - PPI comes out hot - Concern rising that there is commodity inflation returning - Talk of one more hike this year then cuts mid-2024 (Goldman Sachs Update) - Meanwhile - rates movin' up 10's Moving Yield Curve - Getting Crazy! 2/10's Earnings Season - Almost ending - The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). - If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings. - Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week Fitch - Another Warning - Discussed the rationale with Moody's last week - A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase. - Another one-notch downgrade of the industry's score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers Yen - Intervention - Yen hits 145 - level that has had BOJ intervention previously - Weakening due to easy monetary policy while everywhere else is tightening Yen Japan - 6% GDP (annualized) - expectations were for 3.1% - How do you keep rates at historic lows? China - Just bad news after bad news - So bad they announce a surprise rate cut last night - Discontinued reporting on unemployment of young people - (was record level of  21%+ last month) - Retail sales rose by 2.5% in July from a year ago, below expectations for a 4.5% increase, - Industrial production rose by 3.7% in July from a year ago, below the 4.4% increase analysts had expected - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the first seven months of the year from a year ago, below the 3.8% forecast - The urban unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June More China - One of China’s largest private wealth managers has triggered fresh anxiety about the health of the country’s shadow banking industry after missing payments on multiple high-yield investment products. - Zhongzhi is among the biggest players in the country’s $2.9 trillion trust industry, which combines characteristics of commercial and investment banking, private equity and wealth management. - Firms in the sector pool savings from wealthy households and corporate clients to offer loans and invest in real estate, stocks, bonds and commodities. Russian Ruble Woes - Ruble hits 17 month low - discussion that this is because Russia losing the war? - Russia's central bank on Tuesday hiked interest rates by 350 basis points to 12% at an emergency meeting Cage Fight - Done - Zuck: "I think we can all agree Elon isn't serious and it's time to mo...

YIELDS and the Curve - getting weirder. Bear Twist -Tucked and ran. Earnings season update - big change this week to end the season. The Closest to The Pin standings! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Musk/Zuck cage-fight news - Yields spike - Yield curve spreads - Prominent Bear - begs for mercy (Bullish Bear?) - Beer Ball - Reversing The Trend - Banks - Bowie: Under Pressure (who Else was featured on that song?) Market Update - Market Moving - earnings and ECO - Eco report was confusing many - what is the deal? - Earnings - some big hits and some big misses - An update on earnings season - Markets bummed - more downgrades, China data sucks 30 Second Shameless Host Plugs Inflation - Key CPI report out this week (tomorrow) - but many looking for consistent drop (AH sees potential for near-term bounce higher in inflation) - 3.5% - but weaker additions to payroll/jobs. - Wage growth kicking up again - Manheim Used Car Index -1.6% m/m, -11.6% yr/y (seeing moderation, but prices still high) Employment China Eco - China said Tuesday that exports fell by 14.5% in July from a year ago, while imports dropped by 12.4% in U.S. dollar terms. - That's worse than what analysts had expected. - A Reuters poll predicted a 12.5% decline in exports in July from a year ago, in U.S. dollar terms. Imports were expected to have dropped by 5% during that time, according to the poll. Yield Curve - The U.S. yield curve steepened by 20-30 basis points last week - the biggest steepening since March - and the steepening of the 2-year/30-year yield curve by 30 basis points was one of the biggest weekly moves in over a decade. - Lots of talk from Bill Ackman about shorting the long end of the curve (20-30 yr) Earnings Season - Almost ending - The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). - If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings. - Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week DOWNGRADES - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of several U.S. banks on Monday and warned it was reviewing the status of some of the nation's biggest lenders. - Moody's cut the ratings of 10 U.S. banks by one notch and placed some banking giants on review for potential downgrades. The agency also changed its outlook to negative for several major lenders. Overall, it changed the assessments for 27 banks in the sector. - The downgraded banks include M&T Bank, Pinnacle Financial Partners, Prosperity Bank and BOK Financial Corp . - The banks placed on review for downgrade include BNY Mellon, US Bancorp, State Street and Truist Financial. -"Many banks’ Q2 results showed growing profitability pressures that will reduce their ability to generate internal capital," Moody's wrote in a note. Italy! - How Do You Say Morons in Italian? - deficiente OR il ritardato - Italian banking shares took a beating on Tuesday morning after Italy's cabinet approved a 40% windfall tax on lenders' "excess" profits in 2023. - Just off negative rates and banks being punished again - Italian Deputy Prime Matteo Salvini told a press conference on Monday that the 40% levy on banks' extra profits derived from higher interest rates, amounting to several billion euros, will be used to cut taxes and offer financial support to mortgage holders.

X Platform is here. Or is it Platform X? China economic condition is of interest. Plenty of interesting earnings reports to discuss The Fed lifts rates - how is that playing out? Announcing a new Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - X or EX? May be the start of something or maybe the end of something - Saying goodbye to Pee-Wee - Crazy Meme-type crowd buying again - Sending big weapons package to Taiwan - Big news on Mac and Cheese (follow up) - The Bankruptcy Squeeze - fun market moves Market Update - July - great returns across the board - UBER - first ever profit - but there is more to the story - China markets are hot - but their economic condition is horrible - Credit card fee fight - Big boys looking to stop bleed - Fed lifts rates - once again can't help dovish talk - Almost a record! DJIA - Crude WTI at $82, 10Yr at 4.01% - FITCH! July Recap - Markets    July Snapshot   Overview DJIA Record - Almost - Respectable run for 13 days straight days - It missed the opportunity to tie its longest rally on record: a 14-session run in 1897. - Since the Dow's inception in 1897, there have been nearly 33,000 trading days. In that time, we've seen a single 14-day streak of gains and two streaks that ended at 13 positive sessions in a row. Prior to this week, the last 13-day rally was in January 1987. FED - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy still needed to slow and the labor market to weaken for inflation to "credibly" return to the U.S. central bank's 2% target. - "The (Federal Open Market) Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy, - During the press conference, every-time he tried to have a hawkish moment - he pulled it back with a softening of the stance FITCH - United States ratings cut by Fitch to "AA+" from "AAA", reflects expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, growing government debt, and erosion of governance related to peers - In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management. In addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process. X SIGN - Twitter is now Platform X -- Somehow this is going to become the platform for all things??? === ELON put up a BIG lighted sign on roof of HQ - forced to rip it down after complaints --- On Monday, CNBC saw workers dismantling the glowing X, removing its lights and an arm of the letter, after the construction drew several complaints from neighbors and city officials. The complaints said that it was unpermitted, is a nuisance and, in one complaint, that its flashing lights made it hard to sleep. More Musk - JCD - Pluralistic Article about Tesla's Dieselgate, and Musk lies - https://pluralistic.net/2023/07/28/edison-not-tesla/#demon-haunted-world Mega Millions - Now over $1BILLION --- If there is a grand-prize winner in Tuesdays's drawing, that player can choose to receive the $1.05 billion jackpot in installments or a lump-sum cash payment of $527.9 million, Mega Millions said --- For most people that are playing - realize that about 40% goes to the government. So, you are sending the government 40% of every dollar you spend on lottery. Uber

Panic over  the potential NASDAQ 100 rebalance and here is what happened. Following up on the multi-billion dollar lose by Goldman - AppleCard a bust? The Fed and other important market moving events on the top of out list this week. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Another big deal - panic ended up a nothingburger - Summer Travel upended as wildfires heat up Europe - Biden-omics, this is a thing? - AI - coders going to be goners Market Update - Mega-Cap Tech earnings - Fed meeting this week - odds favor a hike - Bull run continues - Media all abuzz about the DJIA run - most consecutive up days since 2017 - P/E ration on SP500 now at 19.6 (forward) with a negative or zero growth rate Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 117.0 in July (Briefing.com consensus 111.5) from an upwardly revised 110.1 (from 109.7) in June. - In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 95.3. - The July reading marks the highest level for the Consumer Confidence Index since July 2021. - Big jump in UMich last week as well ---- FED HAS TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS   Consumer Confidence Fear/Greed - Extreme Greed   Fear/Greed Index   Fear/Greed History Microsoft Earnings - Good overall , guides soft for Sept quarter, shares drop 4% AH Google Earnings - AI big driver, good advert numbers, they like what they see - shares jump 6% AH Interesting - All of a Sudden - News that AT&T and Verizon may have lead cable problem --- Raymond James analysts wrote in a note that they estimate AT&T could spend between $264 million and $1.2 billion to remove lead-covered cables. If the company is required to remove all the lead-clad cables, it could cost AT&T roughly $84 million a year in a 15 to 25-year process, the analysts wrote. - Pratt & Whitney determined that a rare condition in powder metal used to manufacture certain engine parts will require accelerated fleet inspection (RTX down 15% on news as they premise to compensate airlines for the disruption) --- Powdered metal had a containment in it and the company started inspecting. ----- There is a concern that fleet needs to be inspected more rapidly. -------- The company expects to inspect another 1000 units next year and expects a very small fallout rate. - This will cause distribution to the airlines. -------------- Decliners: ULCC -5.79% LUV -5.60% JBLU -5.39% HA -5.42% UAL -3.96% DAL -3.14% AAL -2.87% SAVE -2.24 Greece Tourism - Fires burning since Wednesday on Rhodes forced the evacuation of 19,000 people over the weekend as an inferno reached coastal resorts on the island's southeastern coast. - Rhodes and Corfu are among Greece's top destinations for tourists mainly from Britain and Germany. - Tour operators Jet2, TUI and Corendon cancelled flights leaving for Rhodes. Britain's easyJet said on Sunday it was operating two repatriation flights on Monday from Rhodes to London's Gatwick airport in addition to the nine flights already operating between the island and Gatwick. - - AND: The heatwave engulfing the northern hemisphere is set to intensify this week, causing overnight temperatures to surge and leading to an increased risk of heart attacks and deaths, the World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday. - - - - The WMO warned that the heatwave was in its early phases, saying it expected temperatures in North America, Asia, North Africa and the Mediterranean to be above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) "for a prolonged number of days this week as the heatwave intensifies". Special Rebalance on Monday - Not as much volatility on the Mega=cap names with the NAS...

bank earnings are out - same pattern as usual. China economy slipping further. Oil prices coming up as summer disruptions hit pipelines. Massive raises in the airline sector - 40%. At the same time, Ford slashing prices. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Bank Earnings - Friday the usual - Markets Trying very hard to stay positive - key analyst upgrades - Toffee Pretzels with Old Bay - Client Sent me a batch - McAllens Best Toffee  (reasonably priced too!) - Big price hikes and bigger price cuts - M&A - Microsoft deal makes DOJ look silly and may pave way for more activity - A look at a very bad stock chart - you probably won't believe the company Market Update - China economics - from bad to worse (what happened to that re-opening trade?) - All about AI - wait to hear in the next batch of earnings reports - Luxury firms feeling the heat after China's poor eco readings - Technicals - MOMO and FOMO - Ahead of Earnings - Clearly some excess exuberance in markets ECO - Two-year U.S. inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury market fell as low as 1.88% on Friday and held at 1.90% on Monday, well below the Fed's 2% target. - Surveys showing surging U.S. household confidence in June, as real wage growth turns positive and jobs remain plentiful, saw a hesitation in interest rate markets on Friday as Fed officials enter a blackout period before the July 26 decision. - Crude moving higher (this week it was because of supply disruptions and OPEC cuts) - Bets are that Fed will increase by 0.25% next week and probably be done. (Even though they are strutting around still talking about at least 2 more hikes and no thoughts about a cut anytime soon. - USD lowest level against a basket of currencies since April 2022 (also showing that expectations are for a Fed to chill out) ---10Y Treasuries - Down from triple top near 4.10% to 3.8% Retail Sales - Total retail sales in June increased a weaker-than-expected 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%), yet May sales were revised up to 0.5% (from 0.3%). Excluding autos, June retail sales also increased a weaker-than-expected 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.1%) in May. After accounting for the upward revisions to May sales, the June results were roughly consistent with expectations. (Briefing) The key takeaway from the report is that control group sales, which are used in the computation for personal spending in the GDP report, were up a solid 0.6%, leaving them far afield of an economy in recessionary distress. - Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales increased 0.3% month-over-month following a 1.5% increase in May. - Gasoline station sales declined 1.4% month-over-month after declining 2.1% in May. - Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealer sales dropped 1.2% month-over-month after increasing 1.4% in May. - Food and beverage store sales decreased 0.7% month-over-month after being unchanged in May. - Nonstore retailer sales jumped 1.9% month-over-month after increasing 0.7% in May. - Food services and drinking places sales rose 0.1% month-over-month after increasing 1.2% in May. - Electronics and appliance store sales increased 1.1% month-over-month following a 2.1% increase in May. Bank Earnings - Schwab comes up smelling sweet - Big flood of new accounts, deposits and decent earnings -  Bank of America - Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.88 per share, $0.04 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.84; revenues rose 11.1% year/year to $25.2 bln vs the $24.98 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock up 4%) ----- Revenue, net of interest expense, increased 11% to $25.

Make it or break it time - earnings season is right ahead... Fed heads - 8 speakers this week. Tesla - blows away delivery estimates - what that means for profitability. Change of direction for this currency? What the players expect. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - It is make or break - Earnings season is here - Hot weather and hot inflation - 8 Fed Speakers this week - CPI data Wednesday - expected to be soft - Base effect - Summer Doldrums but a Buying Frenzy! Market Update - Resilient - that's the word - Eco divergence as employment stays strong - Tech in the lead - But Banks ALL pass stress tests - Europe favored over US on valuations (new analyst call) - Big best on rising USD being reversed AI - Party’s over for ChatGPT Plus subscribers as OpenAI announced it has temporarily disabled the Browse with Bing beta tool from its service. - Apparently, people used the feature to completely bypass paywalls and consume content for free. - If a user specifically asks for a URL’s full text,” the AI will fulfill the request, including displaying content from paywalled articles - How did it avoid the paywall? ---- Some paywalls are simply pasted over” articles, ChatGPT could simply read the code rendering the text and display the content without a problem. META - New Threads is threat to Twitter ---Twitter has degraded severly since Musk took over (IN AH opinion) - META stock on fire, 100 million accounts created already - Twitter is threatening to sue (of course) West Wing Scandal? - White powder was found in the White House last week - Turned out to be Cocaine... - - Who leaved a stash of coke anywhere - much less the White House? Best Stock Market - This year (to date) ??? - Zimbabwe ---- 5, 10, 20% daily gains - Up 800% YTD - Argentina up only 100% in 2023   Best Market 2023 FOLLOW UP - Hyper-Inflation seems to boost stock markets - Is it possible that this is the playbook that investors are using in US and other developed countries? Change of Plans - Apple is slowing its headset production and also slowing the rollout --- By appointment only? - Goldman is in talks to offload Apple credit and savings products to Amex ---- Goldman trying to rid itself of bad bet on personal/retail finance endeavor under CEO Solomon. Jobs/Employment - End of June: US weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in 20 months as economy shows stamina - July saw a slight uptick in initial claims - ADP report - HOT - 450k new jobs added to payrolls - BLS official disappointed - 200k added but Unemp Rate ticked down to 3.6% -- Jobs report still solid down to wage growth ---- Last 4 months added near 1M new jobs - not a jobs markets that is seen as being held back by rates Fed Rate Plans - Since we last spoke.... Odds are now 83% +/- of a rate hike in July - 10 year treasury over 4% - 2 year treasury over 5% - Inversion of 2/10 worst since 1980s (and holding for LONG time) -- Powell's recent commentary discussed potential for 2 more hikes and acknowledged that the inflation rate will not come to 2% target until at last 2025 ------ Note - they have never nailed a prediction for as long as time itself Meanwhile - Rates do not seem to be bothering many... --- Consumer Confidence hits 17-month high --- Housing seems to be coming back from brief dip - - Many of the homebuilders shares are at ATH China Economy - Another story - PPI inflation shrank to -5.4% below expectations - Industrial profits are in bad shape - Factory activity is in contraction for last few  months - Government pushing stimulus - targeting housing TESLA - Big print on deliveries

National Debt - Which way is it moving?  Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply alert... Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting - what that really means. New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge)   PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Check out ccpstats.com Warm Up - National Debt - Which way is it moving? - Booming business - converting ICE to EV - Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply - Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting - New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge) - Happy belayed Juneteenth Market Update - Bulls are in control - half full - Fed says more hikes to come - no one believes them - ECB raises rates again - even as Eurozone slips into recession - Economic point to downside risk - China stimulus on the way NO SHOW NEXT WEEK - Cruising the Abacos (Bahamas) --- Assuming Tropical storm does not kick up Fed Meeting - Looked like a hawkish call - Unanimous decision to hold this meeting - Powell talked up future rate hikes and changed outlook to include 2 more @0.25% - Markets are not buying it.. --- Initial rates came up then they came in a bit, equity markets moved in similar fashion - What this is telling you is that markets feel that higher rates impacting the economy is fake news ----- BUT, if so, Powell will be even more aggressive Fed Follow Up - Last week, S&P 500 reaches highest in 14 months. - Led by the Mega-caps again. - Markets fell a bit on Friday with Op-X and long weekend Even more Fed Follow up - Friday: The Federal Reserve warned Friday that tighter U.S. credit conditions following a spate of bank failures in the spring could hinder economic growth this year. - In its semi-annual monetary report to Congress, the central bank noted that bank lending conditions have "tightened notably" over the past year due to the rapid increase in interest rates and the recent turmoil within the financial sector. - "Evidence suggests that the recent banking-sector stress and related concerns about deposit outflows and funding costs contributed to tightening and expected tightening in lending standards and terms at some banks beyond what these banks would have reported absent the banking-sector stress," the report said. - That survey also pointed to a sharp slowdown in demand for credit. ----- The percentage of banks reporting stronger demand for commercial and industrial loans tumbled by 55.5% in the first three months of the year, the sharpest decline since 2009 during the global financial crisis. - Powell: "The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," he said. "The extent of these effects remains uncertain." Economics - Data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May as consumers spent on a range of goods including vehicles. - Another data set showed jobless claims were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 262,0000 for the week ended June 10, but were above economists' forecast of 249,000 claims. - Import prices fell in May and the annual decrease was the sharpest in three years. - That followed a report on Tuesday showing April headline inflation increased by less than expected.  Crypto - According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and despite the U.S. regulator not approving any applications for spot bitcoin ETFs to date, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust will use Coinbase Custody as its custodian. - The SEC rejected Grayscale Investment LLC’s application last year to convert its flagship spot Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.

Tipping - where we stand on the issue. Oil prices plummeting - sign of the impending recession? Tipping and other interesting "fatigues" are starting to set in. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - PGA Tour partners with LIV - Back from Bahamas - the water is clear and the sand is soft white - AI still  the rage! - Zuck sneers at Apple - Epstein - JP Morgan Update - Tipping Fatigue Market Update - Markets Climbing the Wall of Worry - Beer Wars - Taking Share back from Craft Brewers - Rolling Recessions - Eurozone enters official recession - BOA Moynihan has some comments... - Seems like some Fatigue is approaching - too far, too fast Zuck on Apple VR Headset - Zuck points out that every Apple Vision Pro VR demo 'was a person sitting on a couch by themself' - He explains, "our vision for the metaverse and presence is fundamentally social. It’s about people interacting in new ways and feeling closer in new ways. Our device is also about being active and doing things. - "By contrast, every demo that they showed was a person sitting on a couch by themself. I mean, that could be the vision of the future of computing, but like, it’s not the one that I want." LARRRRY! - Lary Ellison - Oracle - Good earnings report - plenty of orders coming in.... - The Oracle founder has surpassed Bill Gates to rank fourth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as shares of the software firm have climbed 42% this year. Golf - PGA and LIV merging - A great deal of unrest about this - PGA trying to figure out ways to help those that stuck it out and maybe penalize LIV players - PGA said they could not afford to keep battling Saudi Arabia - All pending litigation has been cancelled. - One player Rory Mcilroy is really not happy about it and very vocal Golf - US Open - Los Angeles Country Club - 290 Yard Par 3? Beer - I Like Beer - Anheuser-Busch InBev and Molson Coors Beverage are set to gain market share from craft beer makers in the United States this year as cost-conscious consumers are opting for cheaper six-packs, according to analysts and industry experts. - Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect annual revenue to grow about 6% for Molson Coors and 7.5% for AB InBev in 2023, while craft beer maker Boston Beer Co is expected to post a near 3% fall in revenue, compared with last year's 1.6% rise. - "Most cost-conscious consumers are still buying the same volume of beer, but in the less expensive category of beer,"     Beer Beer AI Time - Big worries about FAKE AI generated content ahead of the 2024 election - Lots of fake media already - Campbell's Soup is talking up that they have embraced AI --- (We talked about when these off-beat names start to Tech-Wash that would be clue that surge could be over) - The 154-year-old Campbell Soup Co. is embracing Silicon Valley-inspired artificial intelligence (AI) technology to ensure its success in food and beverage innovation continues. The company is doing this by tracking and curating billions of data points to find inspiration and leverage agile design methodology to accelerate the development of new products that resonate with consumers. - “We leverage artificial intelligence to track and analyze these data points and it has become the main driver for the increase in number of products in our pipeline.” Recession ? Various Eco Reports - The euro zone has slipped into recession and Chinese data has disappointed, warning signs for world markets relieved that the March banking turmoil has not led to a full on credit-crunch and a U.S. debt ceiling crisis has been averted. - Goldman Sachs lowered its odds of a U.S.

Wham Bam! markets on fire - not stopping her now. Russia and Ukraine Updates - Colorcast? New Word - Fed Speak Update Update on Apple's WWDC . PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - OPEC+ Decides on cuts & No-Cuts - Everyone is running for President - Republicans getting their paperwork in - Russia and Ukraine Updates - Colorcast? - Married to AI - This is a dooozy - New Word - Fed Speak Update Market Update - Crypto getting knocked - News about Binance - Markets all excite about Apple VR headset - WWDC announcements - Narrowing breath - day by day - Best move in a day since... Employment Report Friday was gooooood DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help. Fed Speak Update - New word being used to convey Fed's next move - The street is all excited about .... "SKIP" - Pause is now Skip (Meaning that they not going to raise this meeting, but will reserve the right to raise if conditions require... - 27% Chance that the Fed will raise at next meeting (25 bps) - but that is much different than the day before the employment report Employment Report - Big gain in total number of people added to the payrolls - BUT - somehow the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.4% - --- This will give the Fed some cover so that they can hold off on a raise next week - The wage growth us still there and even with a tick up in the rate (possibly due to the labor participation rate moving up) there is still a good amount of inflationary pressure. War Color - Since when is every little bit of war covered? - "Moscow said on Monday it had thwarted a major Ukrainian offensive in the south of Ukraine's Donetsk region but Russia's main mercenary leader said Russian forces had lost ground around Bakhmut further north." Thoughts on any of the Apple announcements? - WWDC got all abuzz - VR Headset (success where others have failed?) Binance - The Securities and Exchange Commission filed 13 charges against Binance , the world’s largest crypto exchange, and its co-founder Changpeng Zhao, alleging that both comingled billions of dollars worth of user funds and sent them to a European company controlled by Zhao. - The U.S. regulator alleged that Zhao and his exchange worked to subvert “their own controls” to allow high-net-worth U.S. investors and customers to continue trading on Binance’s unregulated international exchange. - Seems all these have some bad dudes running the company - -- Bitcoin was down 7% on the news and the USD running (at the same time) ---Other cryptos also falling OPEC Cutting Production - Not really - Keeping production targets overall - BUT Saudi Arabia is actually doing volumtary cuts - that was enough for markets - push up oil a bit in the overnight sessions. ---- CLOSE to unchanged by midday. Married to AI - Gone  too far? - Rosanna Ramos, 36, from the Bronx, New York, has said she has tied the knot with virtual partner Eren Kartal after using online app Replika AI to create him. - "I could tell him stuff, and he wouldn't be like, 'Oh, no, you can't say stuff like that. Oh no, you're not allowed to feel that way,' you know, and then start arguing with me," she told the Daily Mail. "There was no judgment." - Replika AI markets itself as a way to make an AI best friend and confidante to chat with at any time. - For a one-time $300 fee, users can upgrade to Replika Pro. - This expands the capability of the language model and even gives the ability for the purchaser to change the relationship status to "Romantic Partner". - The company have overcome a number of difficulties to develop the intimacy aspe...

Closest to The Pin - first time this ever happened ! Something funny is happening with AI Back to business - some stories from Europe. Better yet - how about some Fed Limericks? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from Europe - Ireland and England (Ever been to an English Wedding?) - - Vaping a big thing in Europe (London) - A surprise CTP announcement - never before situation - Back for more - A special set of Fed Limericks - A lesson in Breath - very narrow right now... Market Update - AI running the show - NVDA - hits the $1 trillion mark for a moment today - UK inflation - still going - Case Shiller Housing report is out and ISM Manufacturing, Employment Report Friday - Apple - Bigger and Bigger -AI name - Did anyone hold C3.AI? UP BIG! DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help. SPECIAL GOODBYE to William O'Neil - Investor Business Daily Founder - pioneer of charting - passed at the age of 90 Housing and Eco - Case Shiller DOWN 1.1% YoY - Consumer Confidence up to 102 - still high (down slightly from last month) -  UK - Consumer prices rose by 8.7% in annual terms in April, down from 10.1% in March but still leaving Britain with the joint highest rate of inflation among Group of Seven advanced economies alongside Italy. ----In Western Europe, only Austria had a higher rate. - Food +20% YoY ( Observance - NO RECESSION IN LONDON - Lots of spending going 0n) Cathy Woods - Talking Valuations - The "visionary investor" sold out the fund's position in NVDA in January due to valuation concerns - - Meanwhile, when has valuations mattered to CW before? Vaping Crackdown - The British government said on Tuesday it would close a loophole that lets retailers give free samples of vapes to children in a clampdown on e-cigarettes - 2023 survey by public health charity Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) of 11-17 year olds in which 2 out of 5 young people said they smoke vapes just to try it, while 1 in 5 said they do it due to peer pressure. - Have there been any good studies on vaping vs traditional smoking? China Stocks - Re-opening craze - not playing out as expected - Small - retail investors have turned pretty bearish on China's stocks - China's small investors are also such a large force - accounting for some 60% of turnover, according to China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Yi Huiman, compared with a JPMorgan estimate of less than 25% in the United States - that their lack of interest shows up in market data. - CSI 300 down about 16% from October high Turkey - The Turkish lira slumped to yet another all-time low Tuesday, extending its slide after the re-election of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. - Erdogan believes that lower interest rates help to curb inflation - LIRA down 7% YTD - MULTI DECADE LOWS   LIRA - USD Debt Ceiling Talks - Agreement in Principle - McCarthy says it will be transformational for Americans - WAIT - wasn't this just supposed to be about raising the limit so bills that were already outstanding could be paid??? --- How much fat have they put into this? - Example: Manchin added a feature to approve all of the remaining permits to complete the Mountain Valley Pipeline that has been stalled for a long time. (pork/earmarks) - Watch for many 3PM - 3:30PM "surprise" announcements Disney Chess Match - Walt Disney Co is scrapping plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida in part because of "changing business conditions" in the state, according to an e-mail to employees seen by Reuters. - Disney parks chief Josh D'Amaro said "leadership changes" and "chang...

Markets appear to be climbing a wall of worry. Hoping that everything works out. Big badminton news - not to be missed. An update on markets and the weekly stock picks. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - NEW CTP for PacWest Bank (PACW) - Wild one.. - US default - create problem fix problem (all politicians know) - Wall of Worry - climbing - Badminton news - this is big - Europe Bound - No Show Next Week - 1 month T-Bill 5.6% Market Update - Stocks impervious - resilient (Not much movement within range) - Close Call- Banks skidded by another potential weekend bailout - that's good.... - Big Tech leads by a wide margin - YTD - DJIA up 18% - Hedge Funds crowding a trade again - AI rage making the rounds again  DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help. Debt Ceiling - Now they are talking about July, if June is cleared - Will slow walk this right up until the last minute - Game of chicken, but just politics as usual - Default would be big BIG problem - global system would unravel Wonky action - US Treasuries - S/T debt moving around a bit - Last week, the yield on 1-month Treasury bills surged 23.8 basis points to hit a high of 5.689% and yields on 2-month bills climbed to a high of 5.283% as investors sold off notes that mature about the time the debt limit could be hit. Musk in the News - Elon Musk hires ex-NBCUniversal ad chief Linda Yaccarino to be Twitter's CEO - Already too many ads - obnoxious - At first, TESLA stock got a bid as the thought was that Elon would get back to work at Tesla - "I am excited to welcome Linda Yaccarino as the new CEO of Twitter!" Musk tweeted. He said she "will focus primarily on business operations, while I focus on product design & new technology." - He added, "Looking forward to working with Linda to transform this platform into X, the everything app." More Musk........ There is always more Musk.... Tucker and Twitter - Tucker Carlson is starting a new show n Twitter - How does that work? One More Musk - Chief Executive Elon Musk has said that the company can make no new hires unless he personally approves them, including contractors - According to the report, Musk told executives to send him a list of hiring requests on a weekly basis, while also cautioning them to "think carefully" before submitting such requests. Crowded Trade - Hedge Funds releasing their quarterly additions and deletions - Crowding into mega-cap names - no wonder that the NASDAQ is so green this year - - Crowded trades make for tough exits M&A News - Gold giant Newmont Corp. secured a A$28.8 billion ($19.2 billion) deal to buy Australian rival Newcrest Mining Ltd., consolidating its position as the world’s biggest bullion producer with mines across the Americas, Africa, Australia and Papua New Guinea. - The transaction, now unanimously approved by Newcrest’s board but pending regulatory approval, is the gold mining sector’s largest deal to date, surpassing Newmont’s purchase of rival Goldcorp Inc. - In 2019. Newcrest, whose then chief executive officer stepped down abruptly at the end of last year, rejected initial overtures, though it had indicated earlier this month that it planned to recommend an improved takeover offer from its suitor. - Gold at high end of range is odd timing to get a deal (valuation based "cheapness") MCD Burns again - 4-year old - Remember the McDonald's Coffee lawsuits? - McDonald’s and a franchise holder are at fault after a hot Chicken McNugget from a Happy Meal fell on a little girl’s leg and caused second-degree burns

Announcing a new Closest to the Pin this week. Yellen starting to freak out. Market not ready for an inflation data surprise. Sentiment slipping.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ANNOUNCING - NEW CTP for PacWest - Some prices from F1 food stops - is this right? - Gamma squeeze Friday? - Small biz sentiment - taking a leg down - Derby Day - bourbon and ham sandwiches Market Update - Oil gets a reprieve - dropped as low at $63 - Credit/loans tightening and we are just starting - Lending conditions tighten overall - Earnings - 79% companies beating estimates (good color with Silverblatt this week)  DONATIONS? Debt Ceiling Fight - Odds? - Bug dilemma - Republicans pushing for spending cuts Inflation - NY Fed- estimates 3-year rise to 2.9% from 2.8% - NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations measure drops to 4.4% from 4.7% last month Employment Report - Higher than expected gains in employment - BUT - Last month revised much lower - so not much difference - Unemployment Rate drops to 3.4% - April Nonfarm Private Payrolls 230K vs. 160K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 123K from 189K - April Average Workweek 34.4 vs. 34.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.4 - April Average Workweek 34.4 vs. 34.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.4 - BIG ONE FOR INFLATION OUTLOOK - April Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.5% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3% Employment Situation Trend - Slowing economy - employment holding up well - How does that square?   Employment Chart Harbinger - Bank Credit is tightening (not much yet, but noticeable 1.5% drop) - 1.9% decline in bank credit in 1975. -  2.2% drop in bank credit in 2002. - 6.9% dip in bank credit between 2008 and 2010.   Credit Conditions Monday - Senior Loan Officer Report - Banks reported that lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible and government residential mortgages, which remained basically unchanged. Meanwhile, demand weakened for all RRE loan categories. In addition, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Standards tightened for all consumer loan categories; demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans, while it remained basically unchanged for credit cards. - Market may see this (perversely) as good news as Fed could think this is bad and not raise... (The Upside Down) Oil Prices - Headlines - Thursday: Oil Prices Fall Due to Recession Fears - Friday: Oil Steadies - Traders Look To Future - Monday: Oil Higher: Recession Fears Abate - -3 days and story changes? --- Oil prices rose on Monday as fears of a recession in the U.S., which drove prices down for three straight weeks for the first time since November, started receding. Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $75.73 a barrel at 0624 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 45 cents, also 0.6%, at $71.79 a barrel. COVID EMERGENCY - OVER - COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency, World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared Friday. - COUNTS according to WHO - 765 million cases and 7 million deaths - Meanwhile - Rochelle Walensky will step down as director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at the end of June, an unexpected departure after more than two years leading the agency through an oft-criticized response to the biggest public health crisis in a century. Icahn - Short Seller Report - Hindenburg cost Carl > $10 Billion - IEP Stock on the ropes due to questionable marks and leverage

Another weekend, another bank failure. 79% beat rate for earnings season - what does that mean? Sinkhole alert! Comparing and contrasting past occurrences. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Weekend bank failure and rescue - EGG BOOK? - NEAR MISS - Tornado Update - Sinkhole alert! - Fed releases the blame report for SVB - BIG story on education and AI Market Update - Earnings Season - Statistically looking good - Apple on tap this week - Wednesday - Fed rate decision - Friday - Employment Report -Debt limit on investor's minds JCD's take on Tucker Carlson's Firing... Sinkhole Alert - What Does it Look Like?   Sinkhole Recession Fears - Looks like this: - Oil taking a leg down - Gold on fire - Stocks Down -Bonds up First Republic - 2nd largest bank failure ever - seized by California regulators - JP Morgan acquires - "Our government invited us and others to step up, and we did," JPMorgan CEO Dimon said in a press release. - "This acquisition modestly benefits our company overall, it is accretive to shareholders, it helps further advance our wealth strategy, and it is complementary to our existing franchise." - In addition to most of First Republic's deposits, JPMorgan will pick up about $173 billion in loans and about $30 million of securities. It said it won't assume First Republic's corporate debt or preferred stock. - JPM up 2.5% - We Should BECOME A BANK! KRE Bank Index - Down 33% YTD -Down 6% today - as WAL and PACW crash - No Alice- The Banking Crisis is NOT over - Why all these WESTERN banks? Debt Limit - Failing to increase the debt limit would have catastrophic economic consequences. It would cause the government to default on its legal obligations - Congress has always acted when called upon to raise the debt limit. Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit – 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. Congressional leaders in both parties have recognized that this is necessary. - Yellen pulled forward date that Bye Bye Nurses - Almost a third of the nurses in the United States are considering leaving their profession after the COVID-19 pandemic left them overwhelmed and fatigued, according to a survey. - The survey of over 18,000 nurses, conducted by AMN Healthcare Services Inc in January, showed on Monday that 30% of the participants are looking to quit their career, up 7 percentage points over 2021, when the pandemic-triggered wave of resignations began. - The survey also showed that 36% of the nurses plan to continue working in the sector but may change workplaces. Pay Half - Pfizer Inc and BioNTech's new proposal to the European Union, amid a glut of COVID-19 shots, includes a provision for member states to pay half price, or about 10 euros ($11), for each of about 70 million cancelled doses, the Financial Times reported. - In January, Reuters reported talks between the EU and the two drugmakers aimed at reducing up to 500 million COVID-19 vaccine doses Brussels has committed to buy this year in return for a higher price. China Rebound? - China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April, official data showed on Sunday, raising pressure on policymakers seeking to boost an economy struggling for a post-COVID lift-off amid subdued global demand and persistent property weakness. - The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) declined to 49.2 from 51.9 in March, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, below the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity...

Markets are moving back and forth just waiting for some big news. Talk of a US default is making the rounds. Tech has a big day - helping to push markets up from their recent despair. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - All of a sudden - recession fears - US Default whispers - Republicans put forth budget with increase and expense slashing - India - taking over the population race - Resiliency everywhere ... Market Update - Banks - Still on shaky ground - Central Banks blamed for market rally - "This year’s rally in risk assets is more to do with a $1 trillion central bank liquidity injection than any improvement in the economic outlook, according to Citigroup Inc.. " - "That massive tailwind — enough to lop 50 basis points off the investment-grade risk premium — may soon become a huge drag as policymakers get back to quashing inflation, having extinguished the banking-sector fire. " - Do we believe that the Fed is done? Earnings Coca-Cola - Average price of 192 ounces of Coca-Cola's soda (12 pack of 16oz bottle) in the U.S. rose to $9.30 in 2022 from $8.03 in 2021, according to NielsenIQ's data. It stood at $10.55 so far in 2023. (31% increase in 2 years) - Adjusted earnings came in at 68 cents per share, compared with estimates of 64 cents. - The company's first-quarter revenue rose about 5% to $10.98 billion, beating estimates of $10.80 billion IBM Earnings - Bellweather anymore? - IBM Corp missed Wall Street expectations for first-quarter revenue - WHY? Hurt by shrinking corporate spending on IT services and a strong dollar. - IBM cut its full-year consulting revenue growth forecast to 6%-8% from earlier expectations of high single-digit percentage growth. - "We are seeing softness in certain components of our discretionary based offerings in consulting," Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh told Reuters about the U.S. market. Whirlpool - Didn't everyone think that margins would compress and higher rates will kill real estate? - Whirlpool prelim Q1 $2.66 vs $2.17 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $4.65 bln vs $4.50 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate - Whirlpool sees FY23 $16.00-18.00 vs $15.97 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $19.4 bln vs $19.02 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate Tech - Microsoft beats by $0.22, beats on revs; Azure +31% constant currency growth  (Shares up 6% A/H) ---- Revenue rose 7% to $52.9 billion in the quarter ended March - Windows division  reporting revenue of $13.3 billion versus analyst estimates of $12.19 billion - Alphabet beats by $0.10, beats on revs, Google Advertising revenue essentially flat yr/yr; On April 19, Board of Directors authorized repurchase up to additional $70 bln of Class A and Class C shares PLUS big 70b buyback announcement (Shares slight move A/H) ------- Ad sales saw a drop again - although not as much as last quarter Banks - The bank crisis is not totally over yet -  Earnings and news from First Republic Bank - massive loss of deposits and company looking to some drastic ways to save itself (stock don 49% today) - Pacific West bank - better than expected results, shares up 13% A/H Debt Ceiling - Limits - Republican led plan - McCarthy floated a plan last week that would pair $4.5 trillion in spending cuts with a $1.5 trillion increase in the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt limit. - All talking about this being political divided and will not pass - The HOPE is that it will get sides talking Change of US Default - debt ceiling etc - Current pricing of credit default swaps soar - BUT, only 2% implied odds of a default - Seen this movie before....... - This time different?

A flood of earnings and a flood in SOFLA Lunch with the Feds this week.  Last week's Fed minutes tell an interesting story. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Earnings Are Out - Flooding in SOFLA - we have pictures - Lunch with the Feds - Fed minutes tell an interesting story - Re-Announcing CTP for Goldman Sachs (glitch last week) Market Update - Going Sideways - Banks post decent results - but doesn't include post-crisis (bank run) - Tesla, Netflix earnings and and next week gets busy - Yellen making some noise - nosing in wrong business - Rates - Moving wrong direction (remains massively inverted) Yields - Yields on 3-month T-Bills have reached new post-2007 highs of 5.06%+ 3M Yield Chart Fed Minutes - Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show - Fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year, according to Federal Reserve documents released Wednesday. - Though Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the banking sector "is sound and resilient," staff economists said the economy will take a hit. - "Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff's projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years," the meeting summary stated. Apple Follow Up - We discussed potential store closures??? - Apple opens first retail store in India - Cook was there in Mubai this week to take selfies and smile China - GOLD AND JEWELS - Jewellery and precious metals consumption in China soared 37.4% in March from a year earlier underpinning a 13.6% jump for the quarter and topping the list of items that stoked a surge in first-quarter retail sales, official data showed on Tuesday. - "Economic fundamentals, risk aversion and the recovery of domestic consumption all drive the investment demand for jewellery and precious metals," said Pang Xichun, research director at Nanjing RiskHunt Investment Management Co.- China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter, with retail sales rising 10.6%, beating forecasts for a 7.4% increase by a large margin.  Bank Earnings - Generally okay - withing tolerance range - None seems to include post Bank run (Tighter standards) - Not much in guidance that is useful Bank Of America - Earnings: 94 cents per share versus 82 cents per share expected - Revenue: $26.39 billion versus $25.13 billion expected - Bank of America said its net interest income jumped 25% to $14.4 billion during the quarter, driven by benefits from rising rates and loan growth. - Stock up marginally Goldman Sachs - Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $8.79 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.73 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $8.06; revenues fell 5.5% year/year to $12.22 bln vs the $12.66 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. - Provision for credit losses was a net benefit of $171 million for the first quarter of 2023, compared with net provisions of $561 million for the first quarter of 2022 and $972 million for the fourth quarter of 2022. - Global Banking & Markets generated quarterly net revenues of $8.44 billion, driven by strong performances in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) and Equities, including record quarterly net revenues in Equities financing. - Net revenues were $12.22 billion for the first quarter of 2023, 5% lower than the first quarter of 2022 and 15% higher than the fourth quarter of 2022. The decrease compared with the first quarter of 2022 reflected lower net revenues in Global Banking & Mar...

Banks need some inflows - giving away prizes for deposits. Earnings season is about to begin - looking for a significant downside for growth. Yields ticking lower as recession fears bump inflation worries. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Easter and holiday season coming to an end... - A NEW Closest to The Pin Announcement - Bond yields way down - what does that mean? - Free Toasters Making a comeback - Gold, metals, alts, COINS! Market Update - Falling Yields - may be a bit much - Employment report - mixed bag - Earnings season starts this week - Big Banks - Apple news - PC Demand DONATIONS - April Donations - Bring May Flowers Earnings Season Prep - Going to be some bad guidance... If actions by companies any guide - Example - Google letter about 2008 and getting in advance so they can say - we are ahead of this... - Banks - what good can they say? Or maybe at worst levels? -  S&P 500 Estimates - looking for -7% YoY growth for earnings How Bad? Tech bad... - Apple Mac shipments fell 40.5% in the first quarter of 2023, compared with the same time the prior year, market intelligence provider IDC said. --- Apple’s worldwide PC market share dropped between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, from 8.6% to 7.2%, according to IDC data. - All five of the largest computer makers — Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo — saw double-digit drops in first-quarter shipments, reflecting weaker demand and persistent inventory woes. But Apple’s decline was the biggest of the bunch. - Taiwan Semi - slowing production as demand is not there Employment Report - March nonfarm payrolls 236K vs consensus 239K; prior revised to 326K from 311K - March unemployment rate 3.5% vs consensus 3.6%; prior 3.6% - March avg. hourly earnings 0.3% vs.consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2% - March avg. workweek 34.4 hours vs consensus 34.5; prior 34.5 - 25% of the employment gains were in services (restaurants, bars and hotels) Home Price Outlook - Moody's expects 98% of major markets to post a home price decline over the coming year. - According to Zillow, tight supply will make it hard for home prices to fall much heading forward. - Through the first two months of 2023, the biggest home price drops were found in markets like Austin (down 2.5% since December), Boise (down another 2.4%), Las Vegas (down another 2.4%), Phoenix (down another 2.2%), and San Jose (down another 2.1%). - Western US home values seem the most detached from fundamentals according to reports. Bond Yields - Dropped due to banking crisis - Even with FED pressing on - still lower (3.4% on 10-year)| - Heavy Inversion - Recession now the play versus inflation worries Sky Is Falling - Starlink seems to have a problem - Satellites are falling out of orbit and coming back dosn to earth (something Elon will never do) - Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell tracks SpaceX's satellite activity, and said that at present "at least 14" of the company's devices were "on their way down". - Reports show that the satellite in question likely burned up as it attempted to reenter the Earth's atmosphere, meaning traces of it will be incredibly hard to find. AS the Sky is Falling ... - Investors snapping up alternatives - Gold >$2,000 - Silver in rally mode - Bitcoin > $30,000 (but 1 bitcoin is still 1 bitcoin - Ether > $1,900 Meanwhile - Fed is full CYA mode - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday that financial system troubles that drove the central bank to provide large amounts of credit to banks is not collateral damage from the Fed’s aggressive effort to lower inflation.

The end is near - AI taking over they say... OPEC+ Suprise cuts - not the best tine for that move. Some bankers may be in hot water after their recent poor judgement. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - 1st Quarter scores gains - Gold and Silver breaking out - Never let a good crisis go to waste? - More layoffs... Big names making news - OPEC Surprise ! Market Update - Tech BIG winner 1Q 2023 - Yields down -- even though inflation still high - Reflex trades - all tied to rates - More layoffs coming - AI names making a run - with all chatter about AI doomsday ----- FRIDAY MARKETS CLOSED Twitter Logo Update  = Dodgecoin Ramp Happy Passover and Happy Easter (The Usual Holiday Price Drops for Political Purposes) - Bought 5 dozen eggs from Walmart yesterday for $12.75 - Matzah prices coming down as well AI Doomsday ! - They are coming for your job -- The letter, issued by the non-profit Future of Life Institute and signed by more than 1,000 people including Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque, called for a pause on advanced AI development until shared safety protocols for such designs were developed, implemented and audited by independent experts. - Elon Musk and a group of artificial intelligence experts and industry executives are calling for a six-month pause in training of systems more powerful than GPT-4, they said in an open letter, citing potential risks to society and humanity. - The letter also detailed potential risks to society and civilization by human-competitive AI systems in the form of economic and political disruptions, and called on developers to work with policymakers on governance and regulatory authorities. ---AI and Your JOB - -- Goldman Sachs: The boost to global labor productivity could also be economically significant, and nee estimate that AI could eventually increase annual global GDP by 7%. (Savings from less workers... less workers = less $ to spend) - Goldman Sachs Estimates That 300 Million Jobs Will Be Affected By AI In The Future QUESTION: Isn't this the same concerns we had in 2000? AI Banned - Italy has become the first country in the West to ban ChatGPT, the popular artificial intelligence chatbot from U.S. startup OpenAI. - Last week, the Italian Data Protection Watchdog ordered OpenAI to temporarily cease processing Italian users' data amid a probe into a suspected breach of Europe's strict privacy regulations. - How can they do this? Must be workarounds More Tech - Google to cut down on employee laptops, services and staplers for 'multi-year' savings - Google said it's cutting back on fitness classes, staplers, tape, and the frequency of laptop replacements for employees. - “We've been here before," Porat's email stated. "Back in 2008, our expenses were growing faster than our revenue. We improved machine utilization, narrowed our real estate investments, tightened our belt on T&E budgets, cafes, micro kitchens and mobile phone usage, and removed the hybrid vehicle subsidiary.” - “Just as we did in 2008, we’ll be looking at data to identify other areas of spending that is as effective as they should be, or that don’t scale to our size.”  (2008 references???) McDonalds ? - MCDONALD'S has shut down its offices temporarily as the company reportedly prepares for mass staff layoffs. - Corporate employees were instructed to cancel meetings at its headquarters. - The company said in the memo that the layoffs are intended to make McDonald’s more efficient. - “We have a clear opportunity ahead of us to get faster and more effective at solving problems for our customers and people and to globally scale o...

Microsoft Activision deal - back in the spotlight. Bank runs have cooled - but there are still questions. Resilient - yes, that's the word Fed officials will use. Over and over to describe banks. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - More Banks - But not to worry - Odds are for RATE CUTS this year starting July - Chili Cook Off - The Results (ask Andrew about the Cocoa) - Crawfish Boil and BBQ this weekend - What is JCD Doing? - Dueling message on Seaweed Blob - Moores law - Coiner - Dies Market Update - Big Bucks pulled from banks - (they have been screwing depositors for years with low rates) - Big banks getting those Big Bucks - Recession odds increased with all of these problems A Moment - Gordon Moore, the Intel Corp. co-founder whose theory on computer-chip development became the yardstick for progress in the electronics industry, has died. He was 94. Bank Notes - Nearly $100 billion in deposits pulled from banks; officials call system 'sound and resilient' - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and more than a dozen other officials convened a special closed meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council on Friday. --- "The Council discussed current conditions in the banking sector and noted that while some institutions have come under stress, the U.S. banking system remains sound and resilient," the statement said. - Data released Thursday showed that institutions took a daily average of $116.1 billion of loans from the central bank's discount window, the highest since the financial crisis, and have taken out $53.7 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program. Sunday - Kashkari: “The banking system is resilient, and it’s sound,” Kashkari told Margaret Brennan on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “The banking system has a strong capital position and a lot of liquidity and has the full support of the Federal Reserve and other regulators standing behind it. Now, I’m not saying that all of the stresses are behind us, I expect this process will take some time.” Controversial - Big banks, advising smaller banks... - The dynamic has put big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs in the awkward position of playing multiple roles simultaneously in this crisis. Big banks are advising smaller ones while participating in steps to renew confidence in the system and prop up ailing lenders like First Republic, all while gaining billions of dollars in deposits and being in the position of potentially bidding on assets as they come up for sale. New Programs - Because Banks are Sound - US authorities are considering expanding an emergency lending facility for banks in ways that would give First Republic Bank more time to shore up its balance sheet, according to people with knowledge of the situation. - AND YET - "I think this is more of a Bear Stearns moment. I think a lot of people, including me, said when they bailed out Bear Stearns, they increased moral hazard. They created an expectation of further bailouts," former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair said Friday - "[The government is] trying to imply that all uninsured are protected, which they don't have legal authority to do, frankly, and this is putting pressure on community banks," she said. "It's really troubling." First Citizens Buys Silicon Valley bank - SWEETHEART DEAL - First Citizens BancShares is acquiring $72 billion in SVB assets at a discount of $16.5 billion - But even after the deal closes, the FDIC remains on the hook to dispose of the majority of remaining SVB assets, about $90 billion, which are being kept in receivership. - And the FDIC agreed to an eight-year loss-sharing deal on commercial loans F...

No rest for bankers - weekend overload to quiet markets. COCO bond rug pull - billions lost The Fed in a no-win position this week. Rate decision meeting Wednesday. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Full blown banking crisis - S&P P/E  still above 17+ - Fed has big decision tomorrow - Fed/Treasury dusting off financial crisis playbook - Bond yields move - largest since '87 --- Banks joining in the charade - $30 billion - Whatever you do - don't say bailout! Market Update - Banks failing - forced merger over weekend - Fire sale for deposits - big win for some banks - COCO / ATI Bond massacre - RUG PULL - Tech favored over most other sectors - Goldman says rates hikes over FED GAME - What will the do tomorrow? - ECB Playbook (raise like nothing happening) - Powell Playbook - raise 0.25% and keep pushing that the data is what they look at - try to save face... - Volker Playbook - ram it - Bernanke Playbook - zero or cut GAME ON - We are playing the real life Monopoly - Treasury Secretary Yellen says the govy could backstop more deposits if necessary to stop contagion - - Trillions in deposits  - how would that work? - - - Monopoly Rules: The Bank: The Bank newer "goes broke." If the Bank runs out of money, the Banker may issue as much more as needed by writing on any ordinary paper. ----- Why would Yellen need to say that ??? Asked on Twitter this week: Why do so many investors enjoy throwing hard earned money into dumpster fires? (Follow John at @therealdvorak and Andrew at @andrewhorowitz) Dust off the playbook - Plenty of financial crisis moves being made ---- Have I mentioned that this group of Fed leaders could be the worst in my lifetime? - $30 billion from consortium of banks into First Republic ---- NON insured accounts was the push --- NO WAY is this not backstopped by Fed/Treasury as a attempt to boost confidence. TOTAL BS ----- Meanwhile - investors are not impressed. (Stock down from $29 to $17 since announcement) ---- WAIT - NEWS BREAKING MONDAY - JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) Dimon is leading talks with bank executives of others banks about new FRC plans; deal could involve converting previously announced $30 bln in deposits into a capital infusion, according to WSJ ----- NO Correction out - that may bot be the way they want to go .... Just spitting at the wall with ideas it seems -- Meanwhile after 47% drop yesterday, FRC up 36% Tuesday (still down 90% from peak) Remarkable - Yields up from ZERO - Earnings down and falling - Global banking crisis - S&P 500 forward P/E at 17.9 - PEG at 1.8! Credit Suisse  COCO - UBS buys for pennies on the dollar - COCO bonds (Contingent Convertible bonds) - wiped out - $17 billion lost as regulators write down bonds to ZERO - COCOs - high-yield investments with a hand grenade attached (AKA ATI bonds) --- They’re essentially a cross between a bond and a stock that helps banks bolster capital to meet regulations designed to prevent failure. They’re contingent in the sense that their status can change if a bank’s capital levels fall below a specified level; they’re convertible because in many cases they can be turned into equity Forced Merger - Credit Suisse bought by UBS - In a package orchestrated by Swiss regulators on Sunday, UBS Group AG will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) for 167-year-old Credit Suisse Group AG  and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses. (80% discount) - The Swiss central bank said Sunday's deal includes 100 billion Swiss francs ($108 billion) in liquidity assistance for UBS and Credit Suisse. Fed Decision - Holding 2-day decision on rates today and tomorrow

Banks get smoked as depositors run scared. Fortunately we get a Sunday Night STICK SAVE! We have some bones to pick - bad math and even worse work ethics. Where are the bargains? We have some thoughts. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from Central America! - Largest bank failure since 2008! - Fed will keep raising until something breaks - HELLO!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Worst Fed Ever! - General lack of any business sense - math clearly not a priority in last generations - - No attention to detail - oversight sucks- management is limp - Sunday Night STICK SAVE! (A joint statement from the various regulators involved said there would be no bailouts and no taxpayer costs associated with any of the new plans. ) Market Update - Capitalism is Dead - Moral Hazard Lives On! - 2-day panic attack with region banks - SVB Blowup - DJIA down for the year - California Banking system is imploding - RUN-ON-Bank - CPI - not slowing down too much - 6% YoY - Everyone now banking on less Fed hikes due to banking crisis - or none... Or cuts! (85% chance for 0.25% increase next week) Coming up this week on Andrew's TDI Podcast - Guest, Anthony Scarramucci BONE TO PICK - All these tik-tok nubes  - want to be a millionaire but have no idea what that means - LET me explain something from someone who works with lots of money all the time... It takes work and then more work - - You can't just make it, you need to keep it. That is just as hard. ---- Making it is not just seeing it on social media - it is a grind and something special - hard work - which it seems is not what people want. ----- Sit at home, no oversight, playing on phone, personal time and personal boundaries that are above work AND not watching the details. --- This is what creates the mess we see today - Then we want government to bail us out! Childish! Assuming everyone knows what happened. Right? - Banks started to get squeezed as assets/loan valuations got crushed under higher rates - Fed pushed hard and banks did not risk adjust - Bad oversight  - SVB - Moodys was going to downgrade, Theil makes some noise about problems, stock offering to raise capital, sold bonds at loss - run on bank - Started with other banks and the problems from overlevearaging with Crypto - all the dominoes falling had to impact firms (tech pulling cash to meet needs, other companies trimming up) - Realization hit that regional banks could have more problems The Fed is Actually Looking At Itself - EPIC lack of oversight, blinders on as usual - The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced that Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr is leading a review of the supervision and regulation of Silicon Valley Bank, in light of its failure. The review will be publicly released by May 1. - "The events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank demand a thorough, transparent, and swift review by the Federal Reserve," said Chair Jerome H. Powell. - "We need to have humility, and conduct a careful and thorough review of how we supervised and regulated this firm, and what we should learn from this experience," said Vice Chair Barr. - There will be findings, many many months out as to how they could have done better, but nothing will come of it. ----- Fox guarding the hen house. Should be independent but Fed is above it all - right? Late Call - Or is it Early? - Moody's cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing 'rapidly deteriorating operating environment' - The firm, part of the big three rating services, said it was making the move in light of three key failures that prompted regulators to step in Sunday with a dramatic rescue plan for depositors and other i...

China making moves. Elon gets his crown back and reversal of fortunes. March is just ahead - rates could spoil the party. Baby Bonds are back on the menu... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Lots of News - same old... - China making moves - Elon gets the crown back - Jamie Dimon Speaks Up - Cool Update From Apple - And Baby Bonds .... Market Update - A down month - short and out - Large Cap Growth - Beating Large Cap Value this year (small caps tied) - S&P 500 up ~ 4% for 2023 NASDAQ 100 up 10%! - Bonds - taking back some of the last month gains - Gold, Silver walking back on higher USD - Switcheroo ***NO SHOW NEXT WEEK**** Inflation - Not Giving Up - - The U.S. Federal Reserve may hike interest rates to nearly 6%, BofA Global Research said, as strong U.S. consumer demand and a tight labor market would force the central bank to battle inflation for longer. - PPI, CPI and PCE come in hot... - Don't think this is all over, but clearly not moving as fast - looks like we will settle in this area for a while Vape Wars - Altria Group Inc. is in discussions to acquire vaping startup Njoy Holdings Inc. for at least $2.75 billion in cash, according to people with knowledge of the situation. - A deal could be announced as soon as this week, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. There is also $500 million in follow-up payments if Njoy hits certain regulatory milestones, the people said. - Altria recently wrote down the value of its investment in Juul to $450 million. The decision to end the noncompete “maximizes our flexibility to compete in the e-vapor space while maintaining our economic interest in Juul,” Altria said in a statement. - BUT - original investment was $13 billion - GENIUS PLAN - kill the vaping industry so cigarettes are back in vogue China Area - Great slow play for markets... - Turn from ZERO-Covid to 100% - then keep rolling out more and more - Hong Kong will drop its COVID-19 mask mandate, chief executive John Lee said on Tuesday, in a move to lure back visitors and business and restore normal life more than three years after stringent rules were first imposed in the financial hub. (945 days) - ---- Egg Freezing - A member of China's top political advisory body said she would propose allowing unmarried women to access egg freezing as a measure to preserve their fertility after the country's population fell last year for the first time in six decades. ----------- Lu's recommendations come as authorities try to bolster a faltering birth rate with incentives including expanding maternity leave, financial and tax benefits for having children as well as housing subsidies. More China - China Renaissance Holdings said in an exchange filing on Sunday that its missing chairman and star dealmaker Bao Fan was currently cooperating with relevant Chinese authorities conducting an investigation. - Reuters previously reported, citing sources, that authorities took Bao away earlier this month to assist in an investigation into a former colleague, Cong Lin, the company's former president. Even More China - Chinese authorities have urged state-owned firms to phase out using the four biggest international accounting firms, signaling continued concerns about data security even after Beijing reached a landmark deal to allow US audit inspections on hundreds of Chinese firms listed in New York. Target Earnings - Target (TGT) reported a quarter similar to Walmart's (WMT) last week with a solid Q4 beat on the top and bottom line offset by weak guidance for Q1 and FY23. Q4 adj. EPS fell 41% from an impossible comp while comp sales grew 0.

Markets are feeling the pain of a Fed that just can't make up its mind. Earnings from retail - not so good. Global warming is the reason for this all! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A quick apology to Hobby Lobby - Inflation ticking up - CPI and PPI not what the market wanted - Change up, this Zip Code - now most expensive in country - Arctic melt is coming - Doomsday Glacier - WHAT? Water BillFlation - Announcing the Winner of the CTP ! Market Update - Bullard and Mester - Not liking the markets euphoria (50bps talk coming back) -- Ever since they opened their mouth - market been in a tailspin - Bird Flu - expanding - watch out chicken and egg prices - Tesla flying high - stock back in vogue - All-time high's for this country's main stock market - Earnings finishing off - mixed bag, but points to concerning quarters to come Bad Bullard (H/T Bespoke) Bullard Speaks Continuing on.... - Worst day of the year today... - S&P 500 Down 2%, DJIA off by 700pts (2%, NASDAQ down 2.5% - 10-year climbing toward 4% again| - Blame placed on unusual strength of the economy - turning better last several weeks. Water Bill - $1,578 this month at the house - that is inflation! - Full Story - No Leaks Hot Real Estate - Miami’s Star Island is now the nation’s most expensive neighborhood while the number of New York City areas where buying a home would set you back at least $1 million is on the decline, according to a new survey. - The average price of a single family home on Star Island, the man-made enclave off the coast of Miami Beach that is home to celebrities including Shaquille O’Neal, Gloria Estefan, and Rosie O’Donnell, was valued at an eye-popping $40.2 million as of December, according to Zillow. - 71% increase over 3 years - Star Island is now four times as expensive as Beverly Hills Gateway in Beverly Hills - NY real estate not lagging behind by much --- January average rent for Manhattan apartment - ALL TIME HIGH Bird Flu - Could bolster inflation (food) again - Outbreaks of the virus have continued in North and South America, Europe, Asia and Africa - Farmers thinking about vaccines - once unheard of - A company farm in Weld County, Colorado, was infected twice within about six months, killing more than 3 million chickens, Rust said. He thinks wind blew the virus in from nearby fields where geese defecated. Twitter - The Taco Bell of social media - introducing a new product update almost daily - Twitter said on Friday it will allow only paid subscribers to use text messages as a two-factor authentication (2FA) method to secure their accounts. - The company believes phone-number-based 2FA is being abused by "bad actors," - Twitter owner Elon Musk tweeted "Yup" in reply to a user tweet that the company was changing policy "because Telcos Used Bot Accounts to Pump 2FA SMS," and that the company was losing $60 million a year "on scam SMS." Glacier melting - Antarctica's vast Thwaites Glacier - nicknamed the Doomsday Glacier - say warm water is seeping into its weak spots, worsening melting caused by rising temperatures - Thwaites, which is roughly the size of Florida, represents more than half a meter (1.6 feet) of global sea level rise potential, and could destabilize neighboring glaciers that have the potential to cause a further three-meter (9.8-foot) rise. - Is this concern all about the displacement of the above the line ice? Brexit - Who Cares - The FTSE 100 is at an all-time high. - With all of the problems in Europe, world... ALL TIME HIGH - Obviously the best decision England made was to leave the EU Cisco Earnings