Welcome to a new trading series called "The Trading Panel", where I collaborate with Jason Perz from Against All Odds Research and a panel of traders to discuss the markets and all things trading. Participants on this weeks panel are:  Andrew Swanscott Jason Perz Kashyap Sriram Pavel Kycek Kevin Green Timestamps [00:00] Introduction and Overview of Trading Topics [06:37] Discussion on Personal Trading Experiences and Learning Curves [12:21] Insights into Systematic vs. Discretionary Trading [15:43] The Role of Market Cycles in Trading Profitability [17:33] Exploring the Impact of Rate Decisions on Trading Strategies [23:54] Debunking Common Trading Myths and Strategies [25:07] Discussion on Options and Volatility Trading [28:27] Carry Trades and Their Potential Risks [30:42] Unforeseen Market Events and Their Impact on Trading [33:17] The Swiss Franc Event: A Case Study [36:30] Exploring Premium Scalping and Its Risks [39:25] The Yen-U.S. Dollar Carry Trade Discussion [42:12] Institutional Strategies and Risk Management Techniques [43:28] Policy Changes in Trading Instruments: USO ETF Case [46:27] Futures Contracts: Managing Expiry and Liquidity Risks [49:24] Liquidity and Risk Management in Trading [53:42] The Negative Oil Price Event: An Anecdote [54:54] Closing Remarks and Contact Information of Panelists [56:05] Final Thoughts and Upcoming Episode Teaser Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice.

Welcome to a new trading series called "The Trading Panel", where I collaborate with Jason Perz from Against All Odds Research and a panel of traders to discuss the markets and all things trading. Participants on this weeks panel are:  Andrew Swanscott Jason Perz Kashyap Sriram Markets & Mayhem Mike Melissinos Pavel Kycek Timestamps[00:00] Introduction to The Trading Panel [00:53] Speaker Introductions [08:23] Discussion on Trading Strategies and Market Positions [15:18] The Importance of Backtesting in Trading [20:06] Diversifying Trading Strategies and Portfolios [25:07] Handling Market Expectations and Predictions [28:36] Strategies to Avoid Curve Fitting in Trading [33:32] Price Agreement and Trading Decisions [38:31] Combating Curve Fitting with Simple Strategies [41:07] Fundamental Analysis in Trading Decisions [43:33] Systematic Trading and the Role of Historical Data [47:44] Closing Thoughts on Curve Fitting and Trading Strategies [52:16] Wrapping Up and How to Follow the Speakers

Get ready to unlock the secrets of trading in uncertain markets with Richard Brennan and your host Andrew in this power-packed episode! Whether you're a novice or a seasoned trader, this episode is filled with invaluable insights that will help you navigate the volatile waters of the market with confidence.   Key Points You'll Learn:   Core principles for long-term trading success, Understanding market dynamics, The barbell approach to trend following, The benefits of using simple models in trading, How to identify and mitigate fragility in trading strategies, Managing risk with tail properties, The power of diversification and strategies to achieve maximum diversification, Navigating market regimes and fat tail events, And much more.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice.  

Discover the good, the bad and the ugly of systematic trading as our guest Cesar Alvarez from Alvarez Quant Trading shares some key moments in his trading career all traders can learn from!    Key Points You'll Learn:   The impact of bad trades and what to do when you’re in a trade you shouldn’t be in (the answer may not be what you think!), Why the market can actually be a distraction to your trading and how watching the market LESS could be the key to improving your results, Shorting disasters and how to avoid that one disaster trade that could wipe out your account, A common perception about systematic trading that just isn’t true (and how to overcome it), Plus loads of insights into algo trading, risk management, short selling and valuable lessons from many years of trading.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice.  

Jump right into this exciting episode where Scott, a former tennis coach turned expert trader, shares his journey and tricks of the trade. With his witty anecdotes and deep insights, Scott's story isn't just about trading; it's a tale of transformation and finding success in unexpected places.   Key Learning Points:   Transitioning Careers: Hear how Scott switched from tennis coaching to trading and the lessons he learned. Trading Strategies: Discover Scott's approach to different trading strategies and what works best. Risk Management: Learn about the importance of balancing trade size and managing risks. Cultural Influence: Find out how culture can significantly impact your trading success. Adapting to Change: Gain insights on staying flexible and adapting to market changes.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice.  

In this episode, our guest is breakout trading specialist and Hedge Fund manager Tomas “Mr Breakouts” Nesnidal.    In our discussion Tomas shares the 3 biggest lessons from his start in discretionary chart trading up to breakout trading mastery, plus some interesting stories along the way (like the trading tips he learnt from a CIA agent!)    Packed with practical tips, eye-opening insights and interesting stories, this is a must-listen for anyone looking to up their trading game. Tomas's story is one you don't want to miss.   Key Points:   Transition from Discretionary to Algorithmic Trading The Role of Lifestyle in Trading Choices Exploring Breakout Trading Strategies Incorporating Robustness Testing in Trading The Importance of Exit Strategies over Entries Developing a Successful Trading Model Influence of Mentors in Trading Development And Much More.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice.  

Want better performance from your trading strategies?   In part 3 of my chat with legendary trend-following Turtle Trader Jerry Parker we discuss optimization, how to really extract better performance from your trading, and common traps to avoid.   Key discussion points:   Minimizing Optimization for Maximum Effect: How over-complicating your approach can backfire, why less is often more when it comes to trading strategies and what you should do instead. The Power of Simplicity: Learn why fewer rules often lead to better trading outcomes. The Role of Back Testing: Discover the benefits and limitations of this crucial and often mis-used trading tool. Diversifying Exits for Better Results: How diversifying your exit strategies can enhance your trading performance. Adapting to Market Volatility: Tips on how to stay afloat and succeed in fluctuating markets. And much more.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

This is part 2 of my chat with legendary trend-following Turtle Trader Jerry Parker.  In this episode, Jerry unravels the complexities of trading size, risk management, and the mental fortitude required in the world of trading. From personal anecdotes to professional insights, this episode is a treasure trove for traders at any level.   Key Points You'll Learn: Trading Within Limits: Understand the importance of trading size that aligns with your comfort level. Adhering to Systems: Discover why sticking to systematic rules is crucial for long-term success. Mental Resilience: Learn about the psychological challenges in trading and strategies to cope with stress. Personalizing Risk Management: Find out how to balance risk-taking with your personal risk tolerance. Learning from Mistakes: Hear about Jerry's early experiences and how they shaped his approach to trading Plus much more.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

In this episode, legendary trend-following Turtle Trader Jerry Parker shares his journey from the initial struggles to mastering the art of trend following. Whether you're a newbie or a veteran in trading, this discussion offers valuable insights and real-life lessons that can transform your approach to the markets. Key Points You'll Learn: Overcoming the fear of entry and the importance of executing trades. The role of systematic rules in trading success. Learning and growing from trading mistakes. Adapting strategies according to market trends. Developing the right trader mindset for long-term success.  

Ever wondered what it takes to design profitable trading strategies that can even win trading competitions? In Part 3 of my chat with trading champion Kevin Davey, Kevin shares his approach to winning a trading competition, and how this relates to all traders, including strategy design, overcoming setbacks, and success and luck in the trading.    Here’s just a taste of the nuggets of wisdom Kevin shares in our chat:   Championship Strategies: Dive into the tactics Kevin used to win the Robbins World Cup Trading Championship.   Crafting Robust Trading Systems: Uncover the art and science behind developing trading systems that deliver results.   Balancing Skill and Luck: Kevin sheds light on how luck influences trading outcomes and the importance of skillful decision-making.   Resilience in Trading: Learn how to set achievable goals and effectively recover from trading downturns.   Essentials of Back Testing: Find out why Kevin emphasizes the power of back testing in creating trading strategies. And much more!  

Step into the gripping world of trading with Kevin Davey, a seasoned trader with a tale that'll keep you on the edge of your seat!  In part 2 of my chat with Kevin, he shares his journey from relentless losses (and margin calls) to transforming his trading approach. Kevin's story is a rollercoaster of emotions and lessons. Key Points You'll Discover: The Perils of Scale Trading: Kevin's early strategy and how it led to a tough learning curve. Emotional and Financial Impact: The psychological toll of repeated losses and the importance of mental resilience in trading. Transition to Algorithmic Trading: How Kevin shifted gears to a more data-driven, algorithmic approach. Risk Management Insights: Kevin's take on the critical role of risk management in trading success. Diversification as a Strategy: Why trading multiple strategies and markets is crucial for stability.  

Dive into the world of trading with Kevin Davey, a champion trader who turned his part-time passion into a full-time career. In this enlightening discussion, Kevin spills the beans on his journey and strategies that helped him climb the ladder of success in the trading arena. Key points you’ll discover: Transitioning from Part-time to Full-time: Kevin shares his personal journey, revealing how he smoothly transitioned from part-time trading to becoming a full-time professional. Strategies for Success: Uncover the effective trading strategies that Kevin employed to stay ahead of the game. Overcoming Challenges: Learn about the hurdles Kevin faced in his trading career and how he overcame them. The Importance of Environment: Kevin emphasizes the role of a supportive and conducive environment in a trader's success. Consistency is Key: Discover how consistency played a crucial role in Kevin's trading journey, ensuring long-term success.  

Dive into the pivotal moments that shaped a trading veteran! Brent Penfold shares the twists and turns of his journey, from a chance encounter that launched his career to the mentorship that saved him from his own trading pitfalls. Get ready for a candid look at the successes, stumbles, and strategies that define a true market maestro.   Key Points Listeners Will Learn: - How unexpected opportunities can kickstart a trading career. - The importance of mentorship in navigating the trading landscape. - Transitioning from discretionary to systematic trading. - The value of backtesting and choosing the right tools for your strategy. - Why transparency and accountability are crucial in trading.   Fun Fact: Brent still sometimes counts waves due to his early imprinting with Elliott Wave theory, despite now being a systematic trader.   Next Steps: Ready to level up your trading game? Visit indextrader.com.au for more details on Brent's upcoming workshop and don't forget to contact Brent for a special 10% discount exclusively for Better System Trader viewers. Just mention you saw him here and get ready to transform your trading!  

Buckle up because we've got a special treat for your trading journey! Adrian Reid, a seasoned trader with a wealth of experience, joins us on Better System Trader, in this special "Trading Triumphs: The Journey to Success" series, to get real about what it truly takes to succeed in the market.  In this discussion, we dig deep into 3 defining moments of Adrian's trading journey, to uncover what really helped him achieve success. We're unpacking the trials, triumphs, and timeless wisdom of trading. This isn't just an episode; it's a masterclass in perseverance and profit. Here are 5 keys you'll unlock in this episode (plus many more!):  The Marathon Mindset: Learn why trading is a long-haul game and how keeping a level head through the wins can define your success. Diversification is Your Safety Net: Discover Adrian's strategy for using gains to spread your risk and open new doors in the trading world.  The Power of Patience: Adrian spills the beans on how waiting out a staggering 27 losing trades in a row taught him the patience of a saint—and the payoff was heavenly!  Emotional Equilibrium: Get the inside scoop on handling the mental game of uncomfortable drawdowns without losing your cool (or your shirt).  System Adoration: Why falling in love with the process, the rules, and the rigorous testing of your trading system can be the most rewarding relationship you'll ever have.  📢 **MORE INFO** Get more details about this episode, including exclusive show notes, summary points and the transcript, at https://bettersystemtrader.com/211 Ready to accelerate your learning curve? Jump into Trader Acceleration Week with Adrian, it's free. Register now at: https://go-bst.com/taw

How can traders make better decisions to improve their trading results?   In this episode, Matt Zimberg from Optimus Futures joins me to discuss decision making, what traders do wrong and how to be a more successful trader (and person) by making better trading decisions.   Here are some of the topics we discuss: The importance of decision-making in trading, Common mistakes traders make, How traders underestimate “the game of trading”, Filtering out bad trading information and training your brain to make good decisions, The importance of learning about things outside the market, The 3 main goals of successful traders, Fear and euphoria, Contrarian trading, people who shouldn’t trade, and much more.

Are you looking for unique ways to use “Big Picture” analysis to guide your trading decisions? In this episode, Brent Penfold from indextrader.com.au joins me to share some interesting (and effective) techniques he uses to determine the big picture to guide trading and investing decisions, including:   Why the big picture is so important in trading, How technical analysis can fool traders, What are fractals and why they matter, Validating market reactions to specific levels, The Market Ladder that projects support and resistance levels, Using fractals to see the big picture and the simplest fractal pattern there is, Pivot points over multiple timeframes and market expectations around pivots, Examples of market reactions to pivot points, Is it safe to get back into the market? Fractals and pivot points on non-index markets, Dynamic pivot points vs static pivot points, Robustness in old trading ideas, And much more!

Which is better for trading strategies - Indicators or Price Action? In this episode, Scott Welsh from scottwelshstrategies.com joins me to answer this eternal question. Here are some of the topics we discuss: Strange things that have impacted the markets this year, The value of reviewing simple strategies, Expectations traders have of trading strategies, Choosing the right trading style for a market, How to determine which markets trend the most, Old trading strategies that continue to do very well, How to manufacture “lucky” trading, Tracking dozens of old strategies, Identify strategy failure, The recent performance simple trading strategies, Plus much more!    

3 amazing guests join us to discuss trading insights of the past year and how to prepare for a HUGE trading year ahead, including: Getting better as a strategy builder, Challenges building short index strategies, Switching between old and new strategies, Timeframes for short-term trading strategies, Scaling out in volatile sideways markets, When the next bear market will begin and the transition from Bull to Bear, Trend following over the last few months, "V" price movements in the markets, Stop & Reverse and small stops in crazy markets, Plus doing more of what works, old strategies that do well, algorithmic short selling and much more.

Adrian Reid from Enlightened Stock Trading joins us to discuss systematic crypto trading, including: Why traders should consider the crypto markets right now, The mistakes most traders make with crypto, Choosing the best exchanges, data and software for crypto trading, Why buy and old is a bad approach to crypto and what you should do instead, The types of strategies that work in the crypto markets right now, The 3 types of risk in the crypto space (and how to reduce them), How to overcome limitations in crypto data, plus Regime filters, optimization, stop losses, backtesting, robustness, auto trading, price behaviour and much more.

David Stendahl from SignalTradingGroup joins us to discuss techniques traders can use to achieve more stable results, including: Why it's good to understand a systems logic and will simple systems continue to work, How to apply adaptive logic to simple systems, Mistakes traders make using seasonals, How "seasonal depth" can identify when a market is likely to make a big move, Using environmental overlays to adjust position sizing, Using VIX to switch strategies on/off, Plus, we discuss which is better: diversification of systems or markets?

Lawrence Chan from DayTradingBias joins us to discuss market bias and how to leverage structural bias to increase strategy performance, including: "Atomic strategies" and knowing when to NOT trade, The most toxic period to backtest a strategy, Why market behaviours are becoming so predictable, How some trading platforms are taking traders down the wrong path, Exploring biases caused by recurring events, Why traders should think in concepts first, Plus, leverage and volatility breakouts, chart patterns, simple tools, knowing the behaviours of market participants, human psyche, market internals and much more.

Jason Shapiro from Crowded Market Report discusses a contrarian approach to trading profits, including: Why contrarian trading makes sense, How to identify crowded trades and why price is not a good contrarian signal, What the markets really are and why traders don’t understand it, Risk management for contrarian trades, Why traders shouldn't care about being right or wrong, Plus, COT report, hedgers and speculators, fading the “experts”, trading through news events and much more.

Larry Tentarelli from Blue Chip Daily joins us to discuss techniques to buying pullbacks and avoiding bear markets, including: Determining the trend with price action and why price action is better than indicators, Using volatility and range expansion as warning signs, Impact of the index on individual stocks, Managing trades when markets are breaking down, Reliability of moving average crosses, Clues that indicate a pullback may be turning into a bear market, Using market internals to identify potential turning points, Plus, systematic rules vs discretionary trading, trading in a bear market, controlling the urge to overtrade, scaling-out of positions, sector rotation and selection, what to watch for in the markets right now, and much more.  

Kris Longmore from RobotWealth joins us to discuss 4 key areas part-time traders need to take seriously to be successful, including: Why it’s important to understanding market participants and why they're trading, 3 common things traders do that almost guarantee they will blow up, Setting realistic expectations for retail traders, The "edge pyramid" and where retail traders should target, The “backtest cycle of doom”, why backtesting is not research, and a better approach to finding a trading edge, plus Risk premia harvesting, turn of the month edges, universe selection, VIX trading edges, FX seasonality, portfolio Zen, risk allocation, crypto trading, machine learning and much more!

Martyn Tinsley from TradeLikeAMachine joins us to discuss market noise, and how to leverage noise to improve trading strategies, including: Why it's important to understand market noise, The impact of market noise on trading strategies, Using noise to filter assets and timeframes, Example of impact of market noise on Mean Reversion strategies, The best strategies to trade in noisy markets, The difference between noise and volatility, Harmonic price patterns, instantaneous noise filtering, trading currency pairs, signal lag in noise indicators, repeatable patterns vs indicators and much more!

Brian Blandin from Markets Science joins us to discuss how to find and trade statistical edges in the crypto markets, including: The things traders need to be aware of before trading crypto, Common factors and repeatable patterns that move the crypto markets, Software, programming language and exchange selection, How to screen cryptocurrencies to find those worth trading, Safety of funds at unregulated brokers, Crypto market correlation to stocks and index futures, Moving from discretionary to systematic crypto trading, volatility, slippage, liquidity and much more!  

Curtis White from Beyond Backtesting joins us to discuss 3 ways traders can build better trading models, including: The problem with trading models and why traders struggle to incorporate predictive factors into models, What drives the markets and using market cognition for better trading ideas, Identifying and trading different markets and datasets, Using statistical creativity in the strategy validation process, Problems with Walk Forward Optimization and the 'proven winner' solution, Testing with different bar types, the negative impacts of being too risk averse, and much more!

Kyle Schultz from Algorithmic Futures joins us to discuss how to leverage volatility in your trading strategies to improve risk/reward and outperform the market, including: Why volatility is a key component in trading strategies, 3 main ways to apply volatility in trading strategies,\ Types of volatility filters and when to use them in the strategy development process, Using VIX term structure as a regime filter, Adapting strategies to different volatility regimes, Mean reversion vs momentum in different volatility regimes, And much more!

Jeff Swanson from EasyLanguageMastery discusses how to avoid curve fitting your trading strategies using the "independent testing" technique, including: The things traders do that cause curvefitting, Is curvefitting a trading strategy really that bad? Independent testing and why you should use it when developing trading strategies, How to do independent testing of filters and using optimization to judge filter consistency, Testing combinations of filters and why you should look to remove Plus, types of filters to test, where to get trading ideas, how long to test a trading idea, when to switch strategies off, combining filters, tweaking a strategy and much more!

Algorithmic trader Cesar Alvarez from Alvarez Quant Trading joins us to discuss low effort trading strategies, including: An explanation of rotational trading and the benefits/challenges of using rotational strategies, Why rotational trading is a fantastic way to diversify time (and also get to “trade lazy”), How often to rebalance and the impacts of the day you choose to rebalance, Ranking methods and some of the most effective ways to find the best candidates, How to reduce the churn in rotational trading with one small but powerful exit tweak, Plus, universe selection, risk management, rebalancing, short trades, mean reversion, stock splits, audience questions and much more!

Trend following trader David Lundgren joins us to discuss how to improve trend following performance, including: The problem with momentum (and why momentum “doesn’t work”), Why momentum isn't working today, Mixing momentum with trend following for better performance, The 4 conditions that must happen for a trend to occur, Modeling regime drivers and digging deeper to understand true market health, What to do when trading strategies are struggling, And much more.

Trader, author and performance coach Dr Brett Steenbarger discusses how traders can get an edge by applying innovation to their trading, including: The 2 levels of improvements traders can make, Why traders resist innovation and how to address hesitation to change, How to innovate by looking at what we do well, Why NOT trading can be an innovation for traders, Impacts of lifestyle and mindset on innovation, Why you should “limit your search” when looking for edges, The 2 qualities most shared amongst successful traders Plus, odds and backtesting market patterns, skill vs luck, testing in relevant market regimes, what successful traders focus on and much more!

Quant trader Ernie Chan from PredictNow.ai joins us to discuss how to predict the profitability of trades using machine learning, including: Unconditional probability and the problem with win% in backtest reports, Why “conditional probability” is much more useful for a trader and how to apply conditional probabilities to capital allocation, Why you should use Machine Learning for risk management and capital allocation only (and not for building trading strategies), Why feature selection and feature importance ranking are so valuable, Plus, the best ML techniques for prediction, how simple should trading strategies be, insights from cluster-based feature selection, do these techniques really work, ML as a crystal ball and much more!

Richard Metzger from Quantsys.net joins us to discuss how to combine algos using state-based market design techniques for more consistent trading performance, including: Why it's important to be sceptical of your algos, The main causes of poor algo performance and how state-based market design can address these issues, How to define market states into "buckets" and why you should keep them simple, Combining state-based algos to create a system, plus Adjusting inputs for market states, combining strategies in Tradestation, market states vs regime filters, and much more!

Mandi Pour Rafsendjani from High Performance Trading joins us to discuss tips and techniques to perform like a world champion, even under times of stress and uncertainty, including: The 2 types of fears that lead to stress in trading, Self-image and accelerating trading performance, The 3 different areas to look at when dealing with stress, "Protective Pessimism" and positive vs negative thinking, The "3M's" to check when a strategy stops working, The "Queens Gambit" strategy to performance improvement, plus How to recover from larger drawdowns, overtrading, Wim Hof and yoga, self-talk, mindset and why the market is like an “all you can eat” buffet you can keep going back to – yum!

David Bean from Capstone Trading Systems joins us to share tips and techniques to manage multiple trading strategies, including: When to start trading a strategy live (the answer may not be what you think!), Why you should learn to love “ugly equity curves”, Watching the markets for trading ideas, Identifying patterns and cycles in portfolio drawdown, Why you should consider correlation based on methodology instead of typical correlation measurements, plus Patterns vs optimization, single idea strategies, market truths, retesting failed patterns, low frequency trading strategies and much more.  

Adam Grimes from Talon Advisors discusses why trading can be so challenging and what to do about it, including: Why it can be so hard to learn from the markets, The dangers of doing stupid things in the markets that generate a good outcome, Random price movements and finding more predictable moments, Why having success outside of the markets doesn’t guarantee you’ll be a good trader, Trading psychology and interacting with randomness, Adapting to uncertainty and mispricing risk, Deliberate practise, Algo vs discretionary trading, when to stop trading a system, new events, out of sample date, how far to backtest and forward test before going live and much more.

Algorithmic trader Kevin Davey discusses the sneaky tactics trading scammers use to trick people and how you can spot a fraud and protect yourself, including: How to check if testimonials are real, Some simple ways to tell if a trader really is trading live as they claim, How to spot fake trading strategies, Trading gurus who report unrealistic returns and flaunt fake wealth, Websites you can use to check if trading educators are scammers, Why teach if you can trade, Fake trendlines and cherry-picked examples for books, Plus, Paypal refunds, money back guarantees, audited trading records, realistic rates of return, reputable trading educators, the old hedge fund trader/caravan park scam, and much more.  

World Cup Trading Championship runner-up Scott Welsh joins us to discuss how "breaking the rules" and doing the opposite of "traditional" trading approaches can lead to higher returns, including: "Burning the ships" and how limiting beliefs are hurting traders, Why traders should "start from the end" and work backwards, Why it's good to see losing in your trading, The 80/20 rule and why "getting the star" beats diversification, How to achieve real-life trading that’s better than the backtest, Selection bias - is it really so bad? Why you should say “screw you” to people who tell you that you can’t do it, Plus, doing the opposite to conventional trading wisdom, breaking the rules with indicators, strategies that never break, trading platforms, beating buy and hold, small profit targets, and much more.

Numerical Computing specialist and author Timothy Masters joins us (in his only ever interview) to discuss trading strategy development and validation techniques, including: Why trading strategies fall apart in live trading, How luck impacts trading strategy results and the impact of selecting the 'best' trading system, Why trades in an out of sample dataset are NOT representative of future trades, 3 ways to use Monte Carlo Permutation tests in trading strategy development to avoid overfitting, evaluate strategy robustness and assess the quality of your strategy development process, The danger of using out of sample trades to compute the probability of drawdowns, Entropy and information of indicators and why it's important to strategy development, How stationarity really impacts trading strategies and what strategy developers can do about it, Using Walk Forward to determine how robust a strategy is in the market, Incomplete Beta Distribution to track strategy deterioration, Bootstrapping, granular Profit Factor, the predictive ability of technical indicators, counter-trend trading and much more.

Breakout trading specialist and Hedge Fund manager Tomas Nesnidal joins us to discuss how to increase the returns of trading strategies using "Performance Qualifiers" while also managing risk, including: What is Dynamic Position Sizing (DPS) and how can it improve risk-adjusted returns, How Dynamic Position Sizing is different to classical position sizing (and why DPS is better), Why it’s important for traders to connect position size with what’s going on in the markets, instead of just their equity curve, The 5 groups of Performance Qualifiers and how to use them to identify the probabilities of future trades, Why using filters to improve trading strategies can be dangerous (and DPS is a much better option instead), Plus, Dynamic Position Sizing and risk management, Optimal-f and older position sizing techniques, Dynamic Position Sizing for stocks, forex and other markets, why it’s important for traders to try new concepts, and much more. ► Download the free DPS ebook at https://dpstradingtechnique.com  or discover more from Tomas at https://systemsontheroad.com

Unknown market wizard Marsten Parker joins us to share how he overcame broken strategies and adapted his trading to deliver a 20-year track record most traders would envy, including: Being featured in the “Unknown Market Wizards” book by Jack Schwager, The impacts of a 45% drawdown and how Marsten got back into trading, How to use a system stop to protect your trading account from large losses, Why it’s important to understand why a strategy works, Mean Reversion short strategies, why they’re dangerous and how to mitigate some of the risk, How to detect and protect yourself from a strategy that’s broken, Uncertainty in the market and the future performance of strategies, Equity curve trading, market speed, diversified strategies, tracking old strategies, indicators, market regimes and much more.

David Steets from Systematic Individual Investor joins us to discuss how to map market probabilities and identify high probability markets using "edge stacking" techniques, including: The importance of mapping market probabilities, How to identify if something really contains an edge, Blending return probabilities across buckets to create a probability map, Classifying markets over multiple timeframes, How to confirm which edges are currently relevant, Using both technical and fundamental in models, The reliability of edges over time, Managing conflicting information and edges, Bear market signals, integrating discretion, weighting edges, VIX term structure, “anti-edges” and much more.

On this BST live show, Ivan from Ivanhoff Capital joins us to discuss “Short-term swing trading techniques”. Here are some of the topics you’ll discover in this episode: The 2 most important factors in swing trading, Why short-term trading is better than longer-term trading, Measuring market environment and detecting changes, How to find the hot sectors in the market, Shorting stocks and adapting to market corrections and downtrends, Swing trading in choppy markets, Stacking the odds in your favour, High conviction setups, breakouts vs dips, protecting profits, trailing stops, time stops, swing trading psychology and much more.

On this BST live show, Rob Carver from systematicmoney.org joins us to discuss “3 ways traders kill trading strategies”. Here are just some of the topics you’ll discover in this episode: What can go wrong with strategies in live trading, The impact of model complexity on prediction error, (and are simple models really better than more complicated ones - the answer may surprise you!), The dangers of overstated backtest performance, The impact of historic costs on backtest results, The 3 types of overfitting, including 1 that most traders don’t even realise they’re doing, and how to reduce their impact on your trading models, Strategy robustness and letting data define complexity, The overfitting "levels of sin", Correcting for the "multiple testing problem", Fitting metrics, sample size, data quality, prediction error and much more.

On this episode of BST Live, Doc Ahrens from Trendline Dynamics joins us to discuss “Effective techniques to identify trends”, including: The Macro-trend Analyzer indicator and 3 ways to use moving averages for macro trend analysis, Why it's important to have simple trading solutions and what failures in aerospace can teach us about trading strategies,  Studies that conclude technical indicators don't work, Using visual confirmation to understand indicator reaction to market scenarios, The 3 types of support and resistance,  How to draw trendlines properly, why it's impossible to “understand the market”, the importance of persistence in trading and loads more.

So, the verdict is in… Afrotechmods says: “I think this is the most informative guest you have ever had! Thank you both.” What am I talking about? On this episode of BST Live, Stefan Friedrichowski from JFD Bank joined us to discuss “how to build Mean Reversion trading strategies”, and it was an absolute cracker! Even if you’re not a mean reversion trader, you have to see this one.  Here’s a small sample of the tips and insights you’ll discover: The "alarm signal" that got Stefan interested in Mean Reversion trading, How to determine if a market is good for Mean Reversion or not, How to reduce noise and increase the information content in trading charts,  The danger of using a Mean which moves too fast, How the distribution of 2 bar combinations gives clues about potential trading edges, Adjusting the Mean length based on the timeframe of the chart,  Stop-loss vs take profit size, trading without a stop loss, degrees of freedom, statistical significance, sample size, entries, exits, and loads more.

Ever wondered how to turn $10k into $100k (or more) in just 2 years (or less)? Many traders have, especially early in their careers… But how do professional traders achieve superior returns while also protecting capital.  On this week’s episode of BST Live, Laurent Bernut from Alpha Secure Capital joined us to discuss “Superior returns from superior risk management”, and a new approach to risk management where you can put risk appetite on autopilot, protect capital and achieve superior returns. Here are just some of the tips you’ll discover: How to turn 10k into 1 million (or more) in just 2 years..., How unrealistic trading expectations set you up for failure, What is "superior" risk management and why investors are like teenage girls, Concavity and Convexity Oscillators for dynamic risk management, Position sizing with small accounts, Why you should let the market dictate the risk for you, How to judge the tradability of a strategy, plus Emotional capital vs financial capital and which is more critical, Risk management after long periods of underperformance, mean reversion vs trend following, the problem with pyramiding into positions and MUCH more. To hear all about it, head on over to bettersystemtrader.com/177 now to watch along or check in with your favourite podcast app if you like to listen.  Happy trading! Andrew. PS. Laurent even turned the tables and asked me a question on why I do Better System Trader. Check out my response at bettersystemtrader.com/177

With 2020 coming to a close, we’ve got a great opportunity to stop for a breather (phew!), look at some of the craziness that has happened this year, and identify how we can use those insights to improve our trading even more in the future. On this episode of BST Live Mike Grech from Quantopolis.com joins us to discuss 2020 and how we can better deal with market uncertainty. Here are just some of the tips you’ll discover: Why 2020 has produced 5 years of market action in 1 year, How this year has produced outsized returns for some trading styles and what could happen next, Understanding your strategy, how it reacts to markets and when to stop trading it, The future impacts of 2020 on backtesting, re-optimization and quant trading, What could crash an overvalues stockmarket if a global pandemic can't, Tail-risk hedging during volatility environments, The drawbacks and dangers of using indicators in trading, plus… The psychology of gains and losses, the information we don't see as traders, the best risk management tool you can possibly have, and MUCH more.

“Randomness has the greatest negative impact on single entry trading strategies.” – Brian Miller (Optimized Trading). In this new episode of BST Live, Brian Miller from Optimized Trading joins us to discuss “3 under-utilized techniques to build dramatically better trading strategies”.  Brian shared some unique ideas for building (and improving) trading strategies. Here are just some of the tips you’ll discover: Basic market classifications most traders use (that miss the complete picture), Designing models for specific market classifications Managing trades as market classifications change, How to get started building multi-structured strategies, Matching the strategy style to the market, Multi-value, multi-entry strategies, and diversification, Adaptive money management using market classifications, plus… Trade frequency, trending vs mean reverting, intelligent allocation, and much more.

“There are literally hundreds of statistically valid patterns in every market.” – Scott Andrews (Investiquant). So, where are they hiding out, how can we find them and how can we determine the patterns are actually valid and not just random noise in the market? In this new episode of BST Live, Scott Andrews from Investiquant joins us to discuss how to find statistical edges to improve your trading. Here are just some of the tips you’ll discover: How to find potential edges and which markets are best, Why it’s more important to spend time watching and studying the market than actually trading it, The "3 C's rule" to separate genuine signals from the noise, How long can pattern edges actually last and do dead edges ever recover? How to track the health of an edge using t-score, Using "traditional" indicators in patterns, How to deal with drawdowns (and possibly the trading quote of the year!), The "Speed Bump Rule" to manage drawdowns, plus… Allocating capital, edges in stocks, building pattern libraries, ensembles vs patterns, day trading edges, context, sample size, and much more.

Is the trend REALLY your friend? And if so, why do so many trend traders fail? Global futures trader Brent Penfold joins us to discuss trend trading tactics, including: • Why trend trading is so difficult for traders, • Why traders should be careful using indicators, • How to overcome challenging periods in trend trading, • The surprising robustness of really old strategies, • Why bright people struggle in the markets, • Drawdown, risk, position-sizing, volatility cycles, data mining, and much more.

Quant Trader Alan Clement from Helix Trader discusses momentum trading & strategies, including: Why momentum trading is so popular and how it works, What makes a good trend indicator and the 4 best indicators to identify trends,  Why the moving average is not a good trend indicator, How to rank stocks by momentum and how many momentum stocks to hold in a portfolio, The danger of stops and using momentum for exits instead, How dual momentum protects during Bear markets and market crashes, Filtering out false signals in indicators, Plus, market regimes, shorting weak stocks, position sizing, and much more!

With the US elections just days away, traders are thinking about how the markets may react to whatever news the elections may bring. Will we see a big selloff, wild swings in price, and huge spikes in volatility? Or do the markets typically deliver something else around election time? In this episode of BST Live, Perry Kaufman from Kaufman Signals joins us to discuss how to survive market selloffs, including: Historical returns around election days since 1924, The 2 types of prices shocks and the best approach to handling them,  The link between stock price and percentage change and why you should avoid trading low priced stocks, Should traders hedge to reduce risk, The dangers of Price Shocks on backtesting results (and how to avoid them), How to determine the volatility level where returns are no longer worth the risk, Plus, volatility parity, rebalancing, portfolio volatility, and much more!

Ever had a strategy that looked like it was broken and wondered if you should stop trading it or not? Strategy failure (or periods of poor performance) are just a part of trading, but how you deal with it can have a HA-YUGE impact on your overall results… so how do you detect when a strategy is failing? How do you work out if you should stop trading it or just give it some more time? In this episode of BST Live, trading champion Kevin Davey joins us to discuss how to detect when a strategy is failing, including: • Why looking at a single equity curve is not giving you the full picture, • How to determine the potential ranges of future strategy performance, • Using Statistical Process Control to monitor trading strategies and which metrics are best, • How Probability Cones can give traders a more informed view of strategy performance (and when a strategy could be broken), • What do to when a strategy over-performs (the answer may not be what you think!), • Should you turn a strategy back on if it recovers after extremely poor performance, • How a really good backtest can actually be a predictor of bad performance, • Plus, much more!

Are our roles as traders coming to an end soon? Is AI and ML (that’s Machine Learning, not Money Laundering or Meat Loaf…) going to take over the trading world? Trading veteran Bob Pardo from Pardo Capital joins us to discuss these topics plus much more, including: How AI is missing common inputs used by human traders, Modeling the expertise of human traders using Expert Systems, The dangers of using computers to blindly create strategies, Retail edges vs Institutional edges and how private traders can compete, The lifespans of edges (are they getting shorter?), The Dynamic Statistical Profile of strategies and taking strategies offline, Correlations (and how correlation can be a 2-edge sword), Objective functions and when it doesn't matter which one you choose, Using performance feedback and indicators on equity curves, Adaptive trading systems, fitting your process to your objective and much more!

DSP and Cycles expert John Ehlers, joins us to discuss all things optimization, including: Why optimization is a statistical process and how to assess the results properly (including what to look for at “the 50% line”), How much data you should REALLY use for reoptimization and why many traders use way too much data (and the impact it has on trading strategies), The 3 best fitness functions to use in reoptimization and the dangers of a popular metric that can lead to over trading, What the speed of optimization results can potentially tell you about strategy robustness, The only 2 things that count when assessing a strategy (yup, just 2!), Plus, much more. Also, if you want to discover more of John’s Cycles and DSP techniques, John is running his annual workshop for the very last time this year (he’s retiring to go fishing and build model aeroplanes). The workshop is run over 4 evenings (US time – Oct 19-23) and it’s 100% online so no travel or quarantine required. For more info, visit: http://bettersystemtrader.com/jeworkshop2020 

High-performance trading coach Steve Ward from TradeAtYourBest.com discusses: How to find the best opportunities during challenging times, Why shifting perspective is such a critical skill for high-performance, How to overcome internal resistance to become more adaptable, “Learning vs Earning” and how to improve your chances of longevity in trading, How to integrate being flexible with the “follow the system” approach of algo/systematic trading to be better prepared for whatever the market may hold, Key actions traders should be doing right now to prepare for an unknown future in the markets, Plus, many more practical tips to improve trading performance. And if you want even more practical tips on high-performance trading, you should check this one out: For the first time ever, Steve is running the 6-week "Trade At Your Best Trading Psychology Course" to teach private traders (he usually only works with institutional clients) the mindset and mental skills required to succeed in the markets, and close the gap between potential and actual returns. So, if you want to see what knowledge, insights, and techniques Steve reveals to his Insto clients behind closed doors, this could be your only chance. (Have to admit I’m intrigued too…) The program starts next week, you can find more details about the program at http://bettersystemtrader.com/taybcourse  

Nick Radge from TheChartist.com.au discusses how to achieve consistent equity growth using multiple layers of diversification. For more details about The Empowered Trader monthly newsletter, visit http://theempoweredtrader.com

Cesar Alvarez from AlvarezQuantTrading.com discusses effective Market Regime techniques to improve strategy performance and reduce risk by only trading in the best market conditions.

Details about what's next for BST and the special event being hosted this weekend.

As I'm sure you've realised, I've taken a break from podcasting for the last year or so. I've been focusing on some other trading projects so I haven't released any new episodes for quite a while, but over that time I've received a lot of messages from traders hungry for more podcast episodes. Has Better System Trader finished? Is it coming back? I have some interesting news to share - take a listen.

This podcast episode made me think back to the very first computer I bought in my high school days. We’re talking about the mid-1980, when computers were still relatively new. Actually, my first computer was a commodore 64 (how good were they!), which my parents bought me, but the first computer I actually bought myself was a pretty serious computer at the time. It cost about 3 or 4 thousand dollars, which back then was quite a bit of money. And this computer only had a fraction of the power that we have in our mobile phones these days, but back then it was one of the fastest you could get. Anyway, this computer had a special switch on the front of the case, it was called the 'Turbo' switch. I’m not exactly sure how it worked, but when some programs were running slow, I could flick the turbo switch on and it would accelerate the performance of the computer. And I was thinking, wouldn’t it be great if we could have a ‘Turbo’ switch for trading, where we could just flick the switch and instantly boost our performance? Wouldn’t that be awesome? Well, I don’t think such a switch exists unfortunately, but there are definitely things we can do to accelerate our performance, and that’s exactly what we’re discussing today with our special guest and leading performance coach Steve Ward. Steve has over 25 years of teaching, coaching and training experience. He works with traders, fund managers and banking professionals across the globe, helping them to improve their decision making, risk taking and ability to achieve and sustain high performance. Steve’s work is focused on delivering evidence-based practical strategies and tactics, and in this podcast episode we discuss a number of performance accelerators in trading. Here’s some of the things you’ll discover: The key factors that can accelerate trading performance, Why the ‘j-curve’ is so important for developing traders and how to shortcut the process to profitability, How the best traders manage the short-term discomforts of trading to achieve long-term gains, Why suppressing emotions in trading can be like trying to hold a beachball underwater, and how to improve our behavioural flexibility for higher performance, How situational awareness training used by the US marines can improve our trading abilities, Tips to functioning at our best in a world of hyper distractions, Plus, much more.

In this podcast episode we’re going to be talking about something incredibly fundamental to traders. It’s something we have to do all the time as traders, and it can have such a huge impact on our trading performance. In fact, it doesn’t just impact trading, it can impact ALL aspects of our lives. So, what is it? Any ideas? It’s decision making. Now I don’t need to explain the importance of decision making, it’s pretty obvious… I’m sure we’ve all made good and bad decisions over time and had to live with the consequences, but as traders, what can we do to improve our decision making? Well, in this podcast episode we’re joined by special guest Agustin Lebron. Agustin began his career as a trader and researcher at one of the worlds largest market-making firms - Jane Street Capital. Over the years he has traded many different kinds of securities and has created, developed and implemented successful trading strategies. In my chat with Agustin you'll discover: The “laws” traders need to apply to make better decisions, Why you're never really happy with the trades you make and what to do about it, Identifying your “personal edge” and leveraging it in the markets, Why traders need to integrate “storytelling” into their processes, The dangers of traders “mistaking the map for the territory”, How to approach a model when it’s breaking down, Plus, much more.

Glad you could join us today for a discussion on what is probably one of the most popular topics in trading, and that is entries and exits. Traders love talking about entries, but the truth is, when you dig deeper and test them out, you might just discover lots of entry and exits techniques either don’t actually work very well at all or don’t work as well as expected. So, how do traders know what makes a good entry or exit? How do we go about building effective entries and exits for our trading strategies? Well, in this podcast episode we dig deeper into entries and exits with special guest Kevin Davey. Kevin has just released a book on entries and exits, so we’re going to dig into that a little and discuss a number of other aspects of entries and exits too, including: What makes a good entry – logic, symmetry, indicators, patterns or something else? How to test the effectiveness of an entry to determine if it’s any good, An unexpected way to use entries that could radically improve your trading strategies, The hidden dangers of combining and optimizing exits, A simple technique to determine if you could be optimizing too much, Where to find enough entries and exit ideas to keep you busy for a year, Plus, much, much more. Let’s get started with my chat with Kevin on entries and exits.

  Our special guest for this episode has done some really interesting work into strategies that manage trading strategies based on their current performance. This can have a huge impact on performance results, but what does it actually mean, how does it work and how can we do it? Well, David Bean from Capstone Trading Systems is joining us to explain exactly that, plus he’s going to share a whole lot more, including: Patterns versus indicators, where they fit in a strategy and which works better, Why market regime filters may not be the best approach and an alternative solution that could be better for you, How to really dig deep into understanding how a strategy and market truly works and the benefits of knowing that, How to determine the best time to start trading a strategy and when to stop trading it, How to plan for, manage and even profit from strategy degradation, Plus much more. So, enough of the delays, lets jump right into my chat with David Bean.

I just want to start by saying happy new year! I know it was a few weeks back, but I hope you’ve had a good start to the year and I wish you all the best for 2019. Now I’m really excited to be sharing this episode with you for a number of reasons. I think it’s very timely considering this is the time of the year where we make new years resolutions. We reflect on where we are and what we want achieve. Perhaps we’ve set some goals and started achieving some of those, or maybe even broken some of them already. In this episode we’re going to be talking about what it takes to be the best, or perhaps I should say YOUR best. We’re going to be talking about high performance trading, what it takes to have a successful trading career over the long term. And joining us for this chat is one of the best, Linda Raschke. As I’m sure you know, Linda has experienced a very high level of trading success throughout her career. There aren’t too many traders around who can say they’ve had the level of performance, success and longevity that Linda has had, so she’s really an excellent person to discuss this with us today. She’s going to share some stories with us, and some valuable trading wisdom which I’m sure you’ll find valuable, so let’s jump straight into my chat with Linda, hope you enjoy it!

With so much focus often on the actual trading strategies or investments, portfolio construction can sometimes become an afterthought… or not even considered. However, as we’re going to hear about today, portfolio construction and optimization has the potential for huge increases in wealth... But there are a number of aspects we need to carefully consider if we want to maximise the potential of portfolios. Joining us today as our special guest is Adam Butler, CIO from quantitative asset management company Resolve Asset Management. Adam has published some interesting research on portfolio construction and optimization, and he’s even provided a portfolio optimization framework that can guide investors and traders towards the appropriate optimization method. In my discussion with Adam today, you’re going to discover: How some traders and investors apply rules to portfolio construction based on a flawed premise, How the ‘Portfolio Optimization Machine’ framework can guide investors toward the appropriate optimization method, Why some errors in estimates don’t have a particularly large impact on portfolio outcome and where the real challenges comes in, The differences in constructing portfolios in stocks versus futures, The multiple dimensions of diversification and how to approach the risks of rebalancing, How to choose the best portfolio construction and optimization technique for you, Plus much more.

With recent market stock market actions, talk again is turning to whether this is just another correction. Will the bull market resume or are we in the beginning stages of a bear market? In this episode we have a timely look at the market with Troy Bombardia from investment research firm Fundamental Capital and the website BullMarkets.co. Troy has been working in his family’s hedge fund for 10 years now, and applies a unique mix of Fundamentals, Technicals, and Statistics to his trading models. In my discussion with Troy today, you’re going to discover: Why Technicals alone can’t give an accurate reflection of the long-term market view and what you need to incorporate instead, Why lots of traders that use fundamental analysis are doing it wrong and which fundamentals really drive stock market declines, The difference between a bear market and a “big decline” and the conditions to watch out for in each, Why leading economic indicators are also leading stock market indicators, and how to read them to prepare for potential market changes, What the economic indicators are saying about stock market conditions right now, including when the Bull market could be ending and the final step to watch out for as it unfolds, The importance of reflection in trading, and the 2 key aspects traders need to focus on to always be improving, And much more.

Joining us today as special guest is Michael Grech from Quantopolis. Mike is a quantitative trader with a background in signal processing and computer modelling, and in our chat you'll discover a number of interesting topics, including: Trading based on assumptions and building portfolios of diversified strategies, Why every trader should have some kind of volatility strategy in their portfolio and how to balance risk vs reward in volatility strategies, Mike's latest book on quantitative investing, How concepts from the book "Thinking Fast and Slow" have applications to traders. Plus, Mike is going to let us in on a project he’s currently working on that uses a combination of simple systems and Artificial Intelligence to mimic a human trader and also to calculate market probabilities. We cover a lot in this episode so check out my chat with Michael Grech.

A common dream sold to traders, especially when they’re starting out,  is the dream of sitting back on the beach sipping cocktails while our trading systems go to work and make us money. While certain aspects of that dream are possible, for example automated trading, traders still need to do a lot of work to get to that point. We’ve got to research the markets, find trading edges, do testing and robustness checks, monitor strategies and systems, tweak and adjust where required... It’s really not as simple as the dream sounds. But with recent advances in technology, including AI, machine learning and quantum computing, are we close to having fully autonomous trading systems? That is, can systems really learn trading rules themselves, find profitable edges and trade them, while we do sit back on the beach, boat or couch sipping cocktails and counting our money? In this podcast episode we're going to explore how recent advances in technology are impacting the trading space now and where it could be taking us in the future. And to do that we have special guest Dr Tom Starke from AAAQuants. Tom specialises in AI and machine learning solutions and he has some interesting insights to share with us, so let’s get started now and jump over now to my chat with Dr Tom Starke.

In this episode we’re going to be talking about the pits. The trading pits may be closed (or most of them are anyway) but there is a lot of history there. There are lots of stories and events that occurred in the pits over the years that we can still learn from today. On this podcast episode we have special guest Damon Pavlatos who has been extensively involved in the commodity and financial futures industry since 1978. He has held Exchange Memberships on the CME, CBOT and Mid America Exchange. Not only did he trade on the floor for himself but he also executed for some of the biggest players around, including Paul Tudor Jones, Louis Bacon, Monroe Trout, Toby Crabel and others. In Damons 40+ years of experience he’s seen a lot, and he’s experienced a lot too. So, in our chat today he’s going to share some interesting stories from the floor, and some valuable lessons for traders of all levels of experience too. Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with Damon are: The crash of ’87 – what it was like leading up to, trading through it and how the crash of 2008 was scarier than the crash of 87, One of the biggest causes of traders blowing up their accounts - it may not be what you think, Why volume could be the most important indicator and how order flow ‘clues’ can impact trading results, Why it so important to ‘stay ahead of the curve’ and adapt to changes in technology and the markets, Why some types of brokerage firms are dangerous and how to check if they’re properly capitalised, And so much more. We cover a lot in this episode so let’s jump over now to my chat with Damon.

Ever wonder how the ‘other side’ trades? I suppose it depends what ‘trading world’ you live in but in this episode we’re exploring 2 different worlds - the institutional world AND the private trading world. And joining us to do that is special guest Petra Zacek. Petra started out in the institutional world and in this episode she shares some interesting stories and lessons about her time there. But now that she’s a private trader she’s also going to share some insights into trading her own account and the transition from institutional to private trading. Some of the things you’ll hear in our chat today are: Why it’s important to think outside the box and express your trade idea in different ways, Making the switch from institutional to private trading and the impact her institutional experience has had on her trading today, How the institutional world research ideas, including what private traders are up against and how we can compete, Benefits of collaboration, using algos as an additional filter on top of a setup, how to balance accuracy with win/loss ratio plus a whole lot more. So let’s jump over to my chat now with Petra.

Quite often the focus for traders are the technical aspects of trading - indicators, back-testing procedures, robustness checks, statistics, trading platforms, infrastructure etc. All of these aspects can have an impact on trading performance. However, there are other aspects of trading too that often go unrecognised, ignored, and can have a huge impact on our performance no matter how good our strategies are. What are they? Joining us today to discuss high performance trading is Mandi Pour Rafsendjani. Mandi is a trader, speaker and peak performance trading coach who works with independent traders, prop trading firms and hedge funds to improve their trading performance. Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with Mandi are: The key aspects that set high performing traders apart from everyone else, How traders can identify what’s really holding back their performance, Why it’s important to have a ‘reset button’, Two aspects of drawdown and how traders can more effectively manage drawdown, How to strengthen your ‘taking-losses’ muscle to better handle losses, And much more. So let’s jump over now to my chat with Mandi on high performance trading.

"Backtesting trading strategies does not work!” Got your attention? Maybe you agree with this statement. Perhaps you strongly disagree and you’re currently heading out to the backyard to grab your pitchfork. Or maybe you’re shaking your head thinking ‘what the heck swanny, have you finally lost it man?’. Well, the good news is I haven’t lost it (yet). We're going to dive deeper into this statement in the podcast episode today. But first, I'd like to introduce our guest - John Ehlers. John is a friend of the show. He’s been a guest multiple times, discussing topics such as cycles, indicators and digital signal processing. In our chat today we’re going to tackle robustness and also intraday trading. Some of the things you’ll hear on the show today are: The startling differences between intraday and daily timeframes and the critical factors you need to watch out for, Why it’s more difficult to predict where market prices are going on an intraday basic compared to daily timeframe, and how you need to think about intraday data differently, We’ll be digging deeper into this “Backtesting trading strategies does not work” statement to find out what it means, How to use a simple Genetic Optimization trick to determine the robustness of a strategy How Genetic Optimization can be used to identify suitable ranges for optimization parameters Why short walk forward periods could be better than longer, Plus a whole lot more. So lets jump over to my chat now with John Ehlers.

As Warren Buffet once said: "the stock market is a manic depressive.” The market can be full of euphoria and greed one moment, and switch to fear and panic the next. This can often be a time of danger and high-risk for some traders, but for other traders it’s a time of immense opportunity. How? In this podcast episode we’re joined by special guest Larry Connors. Larry has over 30 years in the financial markets industry and has been featured on the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, & many others. He has been providing high-quality, data-driven trading research for over 15 years, and I’m sure that many BST listeners have a stack of his books on their bookshelf. I definitely do! In my chat with Larry you'll discover: How human emotions drive the market, and why it’s so important to look beyond price charts and indicators to understand what's moving the market, How we can leverage extremes in specific human emotions to create quantifiable and profitable edges, How Larry came up with the idea of publishing his book ‘Buy the Fear, Sell the Greed’ and what traders can learn from it, 3 simple indicators to quickly judge the mood of the market, How Warren Buffets investment approach to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’ can also apply to short-term trading, And yes, I’m going to ask Larry about that famous ‘Stops hurt’ chapter published over 10 years ago that still has people talking today, Plus we cover a whole lot more.

In this podcast episode we’re going to be talking about strategy design and different ways to look at the markets, and joining us as our special guests is Rikard Nilsson from Autostock. Rikard trades all different styles and markets, and has even built his own trading platform with some interesting features he’s going to share with us. Plus he’s going to share some interesting ideas on how he looks at the markets, some of which you may not have heard of before, including: The 'Predictive Average' indicator – how it can be used to indicate potential market behaviours over the following days/weeks and months, Validating strategies across different instruments, Excluding certain parts of the day based on data, Adaptive 'Backtrack Technology' and how to filter trading signals and position sizing dynamically based on past market behaviour, Plus loads more, so let’s jump over now to my chat with Rikard.

A huge part of algorithmic trading is all about stacking the odds in our favour. Finding statistical edges, identifying times when probabilities indicate that market conditions are either favourable for a trade or perhaps unfavourable for a trade. And although probabilities aren’t certainties, they can still be an important guides for traders, so joining us as special guest for this episode is Scott Hodson from Probable Trades. Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with Scott are: How to apply probabilities to trading strategies and why looking at cross-sectional probabilities across multiple dimensions of data can potentially enhance trading results, How a Probability Almanac can help track the performance of a trading strategy over certain time periods, Why it can sometimes pay to have a fundamental knowledge of the stocks you’re buying instead of just blindly following trading signals, How analysing risk to reward of past trades can help to determine at what point taking more risk is not beneficial, Why you need to care for your ‘emotional capital, just as much as your ‘trading capital’, A specific type of stop that can reduce the length and size of drawdowns, Shorting strategies as a hedge to smooth out the equity curve and reduce drawdowns, And much more.

In this episode we’re going to be talking about holey strategies and portfolios. Now, when I say "holey" I’m not talking about religion, divine intervention, holy grails or anything like that, although we could probably apply todays topics to those type of strategies that need divine intervention (and who hasn’t had a strategy like that at some point?). No, when I say "holey" I mean something with a hole in it, like a bucket that has a hole in the bottom. When you put water or some other liquid into that bucket, obviously it starts leaking, reducing the performance of that bucket and today we’ll be discussing holes in trading strategies and portfolios that could be reducing trading performance. Joining us as special guest for this episode is Ryan Moffett from Blackpier Capital. Ryan has spent the last 12 years specializing in designing and trading robust strategies, working with and being mentored by traders out of the CBOE as well as hedge fund managers out of New York and California. Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with Ryan are: Why manual backtesting can be more beneficial than automated testing, How ‘deliberate practise’ can be used in the strategy creation process to get a deep understanding of a strategy, How to find holes in a trading strategy that could punish your trading performance, The hole in people’s portfolios and how allocating a small portion to ‘the 4th asset class’ can be a good hedge for a portfolio when other markets aren’t doing too well, Plus a hole lot more... (see what I did there!)

Confidence is a powerful thing – when people have it they can do some pretty amazing things, but on the opposite side, a lack of confidence can be debilitating too, and for traders it can have some similar effects, especially when the performance of a strategy starts to suffer and a trader has money on the line. So, what can we do about this? How can we have more confidence in the strategies that we build and trade? Confidence that we’ve built strategies that are robust. Confidence to continue trading strategies during the periods when strategy performance may be struggling. Our special guest for this episode is Adrian Reid from Enlightened Stock Trading, and in our chat Adrian is going to enlighten us on building trading strategies that we can have confidence in. We’re not just going to talk about trading psychology here, but Adrian will be sharing practical aspects of system design and validation, that can give us more confidence in the strategies that we create and trade live. Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with Adrian are: The 5 key areas traders must address to build confidence in a trading system, Significance testing - why it’s important to strip a strategy down to just the core components and how to determine which components are really driving performance, Why the transition from backtesting a strategy to trading it live can be a difficult and uncertain one, and the preparation steps you need to take to make the transition smooth, How a technique called ‘start-date stepping’ can provide valuable insights into how a strategy could really perform in live trading, Plus, performance profiling across market conditions, sensitivity testing, why traders lose discipline, testing strategy rules in reverse, and much more.

Predictive modelling is used in many aspects of our lives today.. in the banking and insurance industries to assess the risks and behaviours of customers… in marketing to anticipate customer purchasing behaviours… in meteorology to forecast the weather… in fact there are too many applications to list here but predictive modelling has the potential to be applied pretty much anywhere, even in the markets. Now you may be saying ‘wait, I’m not in the business of predicting, my trading is all reactive, I don’t predict, I just follow the markets’. I’m not going to go into that argument today but before you make any decisions or judgements about this episode I invite you to take a listen because we discuss the predictability of indicators, and some of the things you’ll hear in our chat about indicators are very interesting, no matter how you use them in your own trading. Our guest for this episode is John MacLeod. John has a background in using Predictive Modelling, working as a consultant to develop predictive models in consumer banking and mass marketing, and has applied this expertise to the stockmarkets as well. Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with John are: Predictive modelling – what it is and how can it be used in trading to select stocks that may be setup for a big move, Using indicators as predictors and 3 major conclusions John has made by analyzing the predictability of 160 indicators – these results may surprise you! The accuracy of predictive modelling, which factors can impact accuracy and the easiest time periods to produce high accuracy predictions, How data derived from indicators can actually be more effective as predictors then the indicators themselves, Plus much more.

I think it’s pretty safe to say we’ve had some interesting times in the markets so far this year. There has been an increase in uncertainty, higher volatility and even outside of the markets there have been a number of events that seem to be impacting the markets. Some traders may be seeing the current market environment as riskier than it has been in the recent past, while other traders may be enjoying the increased opportunity, but whichever way you look at it, there is something that all traders need to consider if they want to last a long time in this business, and that is how to protect capital through proper risk management. The guest on the show this episode is risk management expert Aaron Brown, who has worked for JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and even spent 10 years as risk manager for quant based hedge fund AQR. In our chat today we’re going to cover some interesting and practical aspects of Risk and Risk Management, and how we can plan for and protect ourselves, which you may find incredibly timely given recent market developments. Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with Aaron are: The biggest misconception about risk and how traders should really be looking at risk instead, Why low volatility environments can be riskier than high volatility environments, One of the biggest risks to the markets that can impact everyone and can be hard to measure and how to plan for it, How traders should approach drawdown management, Why correlations are ‘mythical’ and the right way to think about financial markets, Risks in the markets today.

One of the biggest issues we have as systematic and algorithmic traders is that the markets are dynamic and constantly changing, however its quite common to build trading strategies that are static and are designed to take advantage of an optimal set of conditions which don’t actually last very long, if at all. This can cause periods of good and poor performance as trading strategies fall in and out of sync with the markets, so it makes logical sense to try including some adaptive elements into trading strategies to help them adjust better to the markets as they change. Our guest for this episode is Jane Fox, aka Trader Janie. Jane runs the website Quantitrader, and is here to share some of the techniques she uses to add  dynamic abilities to her trading strategies, plus we discuss some other important topics too, including: The top 3 components of trading strategies and how adding adaptability to these components can improve a trading strategy, Why static stop losses could be hurting your trading performance and some techniques Janie uses to overcome these issues, How a ‘circuit breaker’ can save your trading account when things turn ugly, A dynamic position sizing technique Jane uses to increase returns while also reducing drawdowns, Plus a whole lot more so let’s get started with my chat with Trader Janie.

The discovery of DNA as well as the understanding of its function and structure may be one of the most important discoveries of the last century. As researchers continue to unlock its secrets, the applications to the scientific, medical, agricultural and forensics fields has been enormous. From enabling the breeding of animals and crops that are better resistant to disease, to being able to accurately identify criminals and victims, and even to detect diseases early on and create breakthrough treatments for diseases that were previously considered lethal, DNA research is having a huge effect on mankind. But just as scientists are getting a better understanding of DNA and it’s potential applications, can traders apply the same to the markets? One of the topics we discuss in this podcast episode is the 'DNA approach’ to trading. What is it, how can we understand it and what are the benefits? To discuss this topic plus a number of others, we're joined by Bruce Vanstone from Vanstone Trading. Bruce is a trader, consultant and university lecturer in Computational Finance and Big Data. He’s published a number of research papers and trading systems, and presented material at a number of non-academic conferences. He also consults to a boutique funds management business, trading personally and at a larger fund management level. In our chat with Bruce you’ll discover: The 'DNA approach' to trading and why you need to understand it, How to add another layer of logic over a strategy to identify the best trading conditions, Why it’s important to have trading strategies with academic credibility, How a simple change in timeframe can increase returns and reduce drawdowns, The common ‘trap’ strategy creators fall into when adjusting strategies without even realising it, Plus much more. Let’s head on over to my chat with Bruce.

The idea for this podcast episode has its roots in a trip I made to the States last year. I was at a conference and one of the speakers was 1993 Karate World Champion Ricardo Teixeira. Ricardo was explaining how he came about becoming World Karate Champion and he shared his #1 secret to achieving this success, any ideas what it was? It was something that sounds incredibly boring, but it produces big results, and that is: Mastering the fundamentals. Ricardo explained that leading up to the World Championships, he spent months and months just practising the core fundamental moves. He wasn’t practising all those complicated, fancy looking moves you see in the Hollywood films. No. He spent weeks just practising a punch... Until he became so great at it that nobody else could beat him. I think this “mastering the fundamentals” approach has strong applications to trading too. Many traders, especially when starting out, think that the latest software or fanciest indicator is going to guarantee their success, but over time I think we realise that there are some core fundamentals to trading which really bring the results, and perhaps from time to time we even forget them too, so today we’re going to discuss some fundamentals with our guest Martin Lembak. Martin is in a very interesting position because he has access to hundreds of different trading strategies, being traded live in the markets, so he’s in a very exclusive position to see what works and what doesn’t. In our chat today you’ll here: Why it’s important to understand the characteristics of a market before trying to create or match strategies to that market, How to choose the types of strategies that suit the personality of the market and the types of trading styles that are the most popular (and profitable) in the markets right now, Commonalities between developers of successful trading strategies and what traders can do to accelerate their progress, The fundamentals of portfolio construction, including some challenges and false assumptions of creating portfolios, Broker selection and some warning signs when assessing whether a broker is safe to use, Plus much more. So, let’s get started, over to my chat with Martin.

We have a really interesting one here for you today, one that may challenge your existing thoughts on trading models. I know this episode has certainly made me think about it from a different angle, so I hope you enjoy this. Our guest for this episode is Kevin Saunders from Tribelet Capital. Kevin is a specialist in electronic trading across many international exchanges, co-founding Non Correlated Capital in 2009, which later became a licensed CTA with more than USD 40 million under management. He has won a bunch of awards for his trading and academic achievements, and he also developed a program here in Australia called the “Joey Experiment” which we’re going to talk a little bit about as well. In our chat today you’ll discover: Why traders must disentangle themselves from the requirement that a model must work and produce money – and the alternative approach that uses charts more predictable than the underlying market, Why building a mathematical model is like creating a unicorn that doesn’t represent reality, Why traders need to stop thinking about building a model as a ‘solution’ and how to think about it instead, Plus much more. Sounds interesting? Well let’s get started, and jump over now to my chat with Kevin.

In this podcast episode we’re going to be talking about something that can have a huge impact on the markets and on trading strategies. It’s something that can happen very quickly and cause a lot of damage, and that is spikes in volatility. And our special guest to discuss volatility spikes today is Andrew Thrasher, who published a research paper called ‘Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami’, which won the Charles Dow award in 2017. Whenever the VIX is at low levels we here all about in the mainstream media, with the implication that it’s about to rise, however a low level in the VIX alone doesn’t necessarily mean volatility is going to increase, and in our chat today Andrew is going to explain why and he’s also going to share his research and the 3 key factors that can actually improve predictions of volatility spikes. In our chat today you’ll here: How volatility is usually interpreted and why this common approach is unreliable and missing a key part of the picture, Why a low VIX reading alone is not a good predictor that volatility will rise, 3 key factors that can improve predictions of volatility spikes, Plus much more.

Welcome to the first podcast episode for 2018, happy new year! I hope that you had a great Christmas or holiday season and all the best for 2018. In this podcast episode we’re talking about the impacts that large institutions can have on the markets, especially on stocks, and how certain institutional behaviours can indicate potentially big moves in prices. Our special guest is Jason Bodner from Macro Analytics for Professionals (MAP). His previous experience working some big institutional orders has given him some valuable insights that I’m sure we can all find useful, so in our discussion today you’ll hear: How institutional activity can indicate potentially big moves and the signals to look out for, How the techniques of scouting out players on a sports team can apply to stock selection too, 3 basic factors that can quickly identify when institutions are working a big trade, plus loads of other signals to watch for as well, How mixing technical with fundamental factors can give you a more complete picture than just technical or fundamentals alone, Plus much more.

Well here we are, another year gone (and so fast too!). I’m glad you could join me for this final episode for 2017, where we’ll be reviewing all of the special guests we had on the show this year, the topics and insights they've shared plus their top trading lessons. I think this is a great way to look back, to be reminded of some of the key points, and all of the amazing knowledge our guests have shared with us this year. Also, thanks for all of the emails of support and appreciation throughout the year, I’m glad that what we’re doing here has been so helpful! I hope you have a great Christmas and holiday season and all the best for 2018... It’s going to be a massive year! Happy trading, Andrew

Our guest for this podcast episode, Dimitri Speck, first became interested in the markets as a child when he found gold while diving at the beach. And even though trading isn't usually as easy as just picking up gold off the ground, Dimitri has spent years diving deep into the markets and uncovering hidden and consistent anomalies that traders and investors of all styles can profit from. In this episode he's going to share some of these powerful insights with us, including: How understanding Intraday behaviours can help you to get better prices and additional edge on trade execution, The 4 specific hours of the day that would have given you most of the last 10 years of S&P returns (hint: it's probably not what you think), The 1 market event that has produced almost the entire S&P performance over the past 20 years in just 6% of the days, The challenges of accurately measuring these anomalies which could give you misleading results, The 3 simple techniques traders of all styles can use to apply these behaviours to their own trading, Plus much more.

A few weeks ago we organised a family holiday for December. We booked a luxury villa in Port Douglas and we’re all really excited to get there and start enjoying the holiday. Last year the Huffington Post published an article about vacations, and shared a study in a journal claiming that just planning or anticipating your trip can make you happier than actually taking it. I’m not sure if anticipating a holiday is more fun than actually taking it (I guess that depends on whether you have to take your kids or not...), but there is definitely value in anticipation, which ties in quite nicely with this podcast episode. Our guest today is John Carter, and John is going to share with us the value of anticipation in trading, and how anticipating market action and the “pain points” of other market participants can give us an edge in trading. Some of the topics you'll hear are: How anticipating the actions and pain points of other market participants can give you an edge, A simple but powerful mental switch that can crush the fear of executing trades, The subtle clues the TICK and volume data give to indicate if a trend or range bound day could be more likely, How to identify potential false breakouts and how ‘stop runs’ can actually improve your trading results.

I can’t believe it’s only 4 weeks until Christmas! We’ve got the Christmas ads running on the TV here already... The local grocery store has the Christmas decorations up... And they’re even playing Christmas carols - can you believe that? At home my 5-year-old daughter is already priming me for what she wants from Santa this year, which by the way is pretty much everything on TV right now! 2017 has gone by really fast and we’re coming into a time of reflection and rest, time to take a break if you can, and so I wanted to take a few minutes in this weeks Trading Thought to talk about balance, both in trading and in life. Pretty early on in my trading journey I was absolutely consumed by trading. I lived and breathed it, it was all I could think about and all I wanted to do was quit my corporate job and trade for a living. By day I was working a full-time job in a bank, and at night I was staying up late to day trade the ES. I joined a trading room and my wicked plan was to get a few hours sleep after my day job so I could then trade the US session during the night, and then when the US markets closed I would have a brief rest before I went off to work for the day. Sounds crazy right? Well at the time I thought it was a great plan, but I’m sure we can all see how poor it really was. You can probably guess what happened too. It wasn’t sustainable. I was only able to do it for a short period of time before lack of sleep impacted not only my trading, which sucked by the way, but it also started impacting my day job and it also pissed off my girlfriend at the time because... I wanted to watch 1 minute bars more than watch a movie with her! So, at that time there was no balance in my life, and my trading, health, relationships and life really suffered. In this weeks Trading Thought, I want to share some thoughts from Linda Raschke on how Balance can make us better traders. Then after that I have a small announcement to share, so take a listen to some nuggets of wisdom from Linda first.

The Petronas towers in Malaysia are the tallest twin towers in the world at 452m (1483 ft) tall. Because of the ground underneath the building site, they had to put in some deep foundations, up to 114m (374 ft) deep. Without these deep foundations, the building would run into problems. In fact, during construction, at around the 72nd floor, they discovered that tower 2 was leaning 25 mm (0.98in) from vertical, so to correct that lean the next 16 floors were slanted back the other way. They even hired specialist surveyors to check the lean of the tower twice a day until the building was completed. Now obviously the foundations anchor the building and keep it from falling over, and even though they’re not visible, they’re probably the most important part of the construction. When you look at constructing a portfolio of strategies, there are a couple of key concepts, or foundations to consider as well, so that you have a solid portfolio, one that will hopefully weather all types of hostile conditions and produce higher returns with reduced drawdowns. In this weeks Trading Thought we’re going to hear from 2 guests, who will explain how they construct portfolios and some mistakes that traders sometimes make during portfolio construction, which you need to be aware of. Take a listen as we start with Gary Hart from Trendfinder Trading Systems explaining the benefits of a portfolio of strategies and we take it from there.

And we're back for the final episode in this 3-part series on building Mean Reversion strategies with Cesar Alvarez from Alvarez Quant Trading. In the 1st episode we discussed the goal of Mean Reversion trading, how to select a trading universe, a number of effective techniques to measuring Mean Reversion and how to combine indicators to identify better quality trades. In the 2nd episode we discussed market classification, trade ranking, exits, order types, position sizing, risk control and much more. In this 3rd and final episode, Cesar answers all your questions, covering a wide range of topics, including: Mean Reversion in markets outside of Stocks, Controlling risk during market sell-offs, gaps and being overweight in particular sectors, Performance of Large caps vs Small caps, Ranking Mean Reversion setups, Shorting strategies, Readjusting strategy parameters and measuring robustness, Balancing Mean Reversion in a portfolio of other trading styles, Tail risk, leverage, options, performance monitoring and so much more!

A few weeks ago I got the fright of my life. I found myself in a situation where I could potentially be crushed by a car, or perhaps even a bus or truck. Find out what happens and how it applies to tracking the performance degradation of trading strategies (before they kill your account).

I’ve just arrived back home from a few weeks in the States, I had a great time there but it’s also good to be home. I’m a bit jet-lagged today so let’s hope what I share today actually makes sense! A few weeks ago I had the honour of speaking at the ATAA members meeting here in Melbourne. I presented for about an hour and the topic of my presentation was ‘7 practical tips to reducing drawdown’. In this weeks Trading Thought I want to share a quick story from that and how it applies to Mean Reversion in low volatility environments. In part 1 of the Mean Reversion series, Cesar made a statement about Mean Reversion strategies not performing so well in low-volatility market regimes, and I received a number of emails asking what type of strategies DO work in low volatility environments, so... In this week’s Trading Thought I want to share a quick little sneak-peek into the next Mean Reversion episode with Cesar, due for release in a few weeks, where he answers this question, plus much more. It’s only short, but let’s take a listen to Cesar sharing what he's found to work in low-volatility market regimes.

And we're back for the 2nd episode in this 3-part series on building Mean Reversion strategies with Cesar Alvarez from Alvarez Quant Trading. In the first episode we discussed the goal of Mean Reversion trading, how to select a trading universe, a number of effective techniques to measuring Mean Reversion and how to combine indicators to identify better quality trades. If you haven't listened to that episode yet, you should check it out first here. In this 2nd episode in the Mean Reversion series, Cesar will be sharing: How to classify market conditions and adjust Mean Reversion strategies to the current market, Tips to choosing trades with a higher probability of success when you have more trades than your account can take, How the maximum number of positions you trade affects the role of luck on trading results and how to produce more 'reliable' results instead, Why it can be a good idea to have different strategies that enter at market and on limit orders instead of just one or the other, The impacts of stops on returns and why they don’t often protect you from the really big losses, Implementing multiple exits, what works best in Mean Reversion (and what to avoid) and testing exit combinations. Watch out for the 3rd episode in the series, where Cesar answers all the questions submitted by Better System Trader listeners.

Have you ever wondered: Why the word "abbreviate" is so long? Why are wise men and wise guys opposites? Why is it called quicksand if it takes you down slowly? Where do forest rangers go to "get away from it all?" Why is it that when we transport something by car it's called a shipment, but when we transport something by ship it's called cargo? I'm sure there are reasons for all of these, but on the surface they don't seem to make sense. What about stop losses, do they make sense? We often hear the trading rule of 'always use a stop loss', no matter what, use it everywhere, but… Does it actually make sense to ALWAYS use a stop loss? Or are there occasions when using a stop loss DOESNT make sense? And if so, how do you handle that? How do you manage your risk? In this week’s trading thought, we’re going to review a chat with Dr Ernie Chan about stop losses, and we discuss these exact points, so let head on over to Ernie and find out if it makes sense to ALWAYS use a stop loss.

As you probably know, we’re currently focusing on Mean Reversion trading strategies. In episode 127, Cesar Alvarez shared a number of techniques to measuring Mean Reversion and identifying setups. There was probably close to 10, maybe 12 different ideas Cesar shared with us, so there are lots of ways to measure Mean Reversion when looking for trade setups. Are any techniques better than others? In this weeks Trading Thought I want to add a little bit more to the insights Cesar shared with us on Mean Reversion setups by referencing another very popular Mean Reversion episode I did with PJ Sutherland, episode 62. In this weeks 'Trading Thought' PJ is talking about measuring Mean Reversion setups and a technique where he ‘really started to see phenomenal test results’ -  who doesn’t want that right? So what is this technique? And where did PJ see these phenomenal test results? Take a listen as PJ explains it to us... 

We’ve got something special organised for you here... This is the 1st episode in a special 2-part series on building Mean Reversion trading strategies. And to discuss Mean Reversion we have a special guest, someone who has been on the podcast a couple of times already - Cesar Alvarez from Alvarez Quant Trading. Those of you who know Cesars work would be aware that he is a Mean Reversion specialist. He has a wealth of knowledge on Mean Reversion trading that he's going to share with us over this special 2-part series, so I’m really excited to be sharing it with you. In this first episode Cesar will be sharing: The high level steps to building a mean reversion trading strategy, Why carefully selecting a trading universe is so important and the factors you need to consider, Simple but highly effective techniques to measuring mean reversion you can start testing today, How to combine indicators properly to identify better quality trades, and Why strategies with a smooth equity curve may not actually be the best strategies to trade in the future.

It seems from the emails I’ve been getting lately that more and more traders are becoming concerned about the state of the markets, especially the stock markets, which is understandable. And the concern is really around what’s going to happen when the stockmarkets start falling. What could happen to their strategies and accounts and how can they prepare for it now? How can they protect their portfolios? One form of protection that often comes up is using diversification to reduce portfolio risk. However, a common question that is raised is how to actually go about diversifying? Is there more protection in diversifying across markets, or staying in the same market and diversifying across strategies? In this short piece of audio, Perry Kaufman discusses how he looks at diversification, and it’s something you may want to consider when you’re thinking about how to protect your own trading account and portfolio in a market downturn.

In this weeks ‘Trading thought’ we’re going to discuss an issue that all traders have to face... How do you know when to stop trading a strategy? A common approach is to wait for a strategy to reach the maximum historical drawdown and then either stop trading the system or look at modifying it or optimizing it, but... There are a couple of problems with that approach: Once the strategy has hit that drawdown level, the damage is already done, you’ve already taken a series of losses to get to that level, What if you stop trading the strategy and it recovers from the drawdown, you missed out on the recovery. When we have a system that goes into drawdown, we never really know if it’s the beginning of the end for that strategy or if it will be a drawdown within expectations, so it can be tricky issue to address. Can this be managed differently? Are there warning signs to watch out for that can tell us if our strategy is sick or healthy and can we manage these sick strategies differently without having such an impact on our trading accounts? In this episode we’re going to hear from Alan Clement, who is going to share some ideas on measuring system health, so take a listen to our chat with Alan.

Trade management is a critical component of a trading strategy. It can often be the difference between a profitable trade and a loss... However many traders focus on the entry only and leave trade management as an afterthought. In episode 49 of the podcast, Linda Raschke, said "trade management is probably the most neglected area of system development". In that episode we focused on Linda's approach to modelling the markets but in this episode Linda is back to discuss trade management and exits, including: Why trade management is such a neglected aspect of trading, How to model different types of exits and the impact of market environments, How volume and breadth measures can give clues to the tone of the market, and How to use the power of relative strength to target the best markets to trade.

In this weeks Thursday Trading Thought we’re going to discuss a market pattern that was identified over 80 years ago, perhaps even longer, that could indicate what happens in the markets for the rest of 2017. Now, I can imagine some traders are probably thinking, “who cares about some old, dusty trading rule from the 1900’s, surely that has no relevance to the markets today?” Well, that’s what we’re going to discuss with our guest Brent Penfold, who is going to answer the following questions, plus more: What is this pattern and can something identified over 80 years ago really have any relevance to trading today, Does the pattern still work and what is it suggesting the markets could do for the rest of 2017, And how could this pattern be applied to trading today? Brent is even going to share 1 application of this pattern with some very interesting backtest results so you don’t want to miss that.

With the explosion of computing power, more and more resources are being deployed to analyse the markets. Edges that used to work are being eroded away or destroyed as traders from all around the world get to work analysing the same sets of price data. Add to that mix the sophisticated machine learning algorithms and the rooms full of PhDs, how do we even compete with that? If everyone is looking at the same price data, is trading based on price alone enough, and if not, then what is the solution? In this weeks Thursday trading thought Gary Hart from trendfinder trading systems is going to share his approach to this problem.  We pickup the conversation discussing changes in the markets over time.

In this episode we’re going to explore a topic we don’t cover much on this podcast and that is options trading. 2 of the mains reasons we don’t discuss options trading much, is firstly because I don’t trade options myself and have limited knowledge of how to use them, but also because there are some challenges with testing options strategies which makes it difficult to backtest them systematically. However, there are some potentially huge benefits to trading systematic options strategies in a portfolio, if you can overcome these challenges. Today's guest, Luca Giusti from QTlab, is here to discuss options with us, explaining: The benefits of trading options systematically, The challenges of testing options strategies and the solution, Why volatility is such an important aspect of trading which can’t be ignored, How to factor market volatility into trading strategies to reduce risk and increase performance.

In this weeks Thursday Trading Thought we’re going to inject some inspiration into the podcast. Trading is a really tough business and sometimes as traders we can get into a bit of a funk, no matter what level of trading we’re at. But we’re only human and we’re all trying to get better, so in this episode I’ve pulled together 3 of my favourite stories or motivations from the podcast. We’ve had a lot of inspirational guests on the show over the years so I could have pulled out a whole bunch of these but to keep it short for this Thursday Trading Thought I’m going to share 3 that stood out to me. Hope you enjoy them!

Fear, Hope and Greed are 3 dangers that traders of all levels need to watch out for. They can have sometimes have a dramatic impact on our trading results, and even cause traders to quit trading or to blow up their accounts. And even if you think you’ve got them covered things can change pretty quickly, and even seasoned pros that are often as cool as ice can turn into a quivering mess in the corner! OK, that was a little dramatic, but it can happen and I’m sure you get the point that at times traders of all levels can become susceptible to the dangers of Fear, Hope and Greed. So how can we manage them so that it doesn’t impact our trading? In this weeks 'Thursday Trading Thought' Brent Penfold is going to share some practical tips on how to overcome these 3 dangers, so let head on over to our chat with Brent to see what he has to share.

So here it is, the 2nd part of our conversation with Brian Miller from Optimized Trading. In the chat today we're going to combine some new topics with an expansion on our previous conversation, including: The application of game theory in trading (it doesn't just apply to HFT), The importance of letting the R&D process guide you instead of trying to squeeze it into a preconceived idea, How to balance simplicity with complexity for more robust trading solutions, The impacts of price data evolution on trading model longevity and how to address them, Plus a few questions from listeners.

A common misconception with systematic and algorithmic trading is that it removes the impacts of human psychology on trading. But that’s really not the case. In fact, even when we’ve got trading platforms automatically executing trades for us, the mental aspects of trading can still have an impact on execution, model development, position sizing and other areas... Sometimes without us even knowing. And not only can they have a negative effect on our trading results, but can also take a toll on our health, well-being, relationships and other areas of our personal lives. But by being able to identify issues and putting plans in place to address them, we can make better trading decisions. So how do we do that? In today’s Trading Thought we’re going to hear Laurent Bernut explain a technique that he uses, plus he also shares a 'jedi mind trick' that can quickly reset some of the mental states traders can get into.

You may have noticed over the past few weeks of 'Thursday Trading Thoughts' that we’ve been following a theme. In episode 113 we heard about a test Kevin Davey calls the ‘Monkey test’, which can be used to measure the effectiveness of entries and exits. Then in episode 114 we reviewed a technique that Dave Bergstrom shared to measure the decay of a trading edge so that we can determine when an edge has gone, and not overstay our welcome at the party. In this weeks trading thought we’re going to discuss the process of combining edges, filters, conditions into a trading system. A common practice when building trading strategies is to combine indicators or filters to see how that particular combination impacts performance, however this practice can be overused or abused, leading to curvefit strategies that don’t perform so well in live trading. In today’s episode we're going to hear one solution for this problem, from our guest Art Collins, who is going to tell us the process he uses to combine edges while reducing the risk of overfitting, so let's hear from Art.

Glad you could join us today for our chat about intelligent systems that maintain themselves. Sounds good doesn’t it? Well actually, that’s not all we’re going to discuss today, we’ve got so much more than that. Our guest for this episode is David Stendahl, from Signal Trading Group. David is a CTA with more than 20 years of experience designing and trading systems, and not only is he an international speaker and the author of 4 books but he also co-created the backtester in Tradestation many years ago. In this episode he’s got a lot to share with us, here are just some of the points we cover: How to build intelligence into trading strategies so they dynamically adjust and maintain themselves over time, The key to portfolio construction and the major factors to consider for effective diversification, Why it can be better NOT to specialise in a particular market, The main drivers behind strategies that have lasted more than 10 years in the markets, How to assess if a strategy suits your personality.

Last week we reviewed a technique Kevin Davey shared to measure the effectiveness of entries and exits using something he calls ‘the monkey test’. This week we’re going to look at entries and exits from a slightly different angle: How can we measure a trading edge after we’ve entered a trade, Is it possible to identify when that edge has disappeared so we can consider exiting the trade rather than overstaying our welcome? In this episode we’re going to review a technique that Dave Bergstrom uses to measure the decay of a trading edge. We pick up the conversation talking about validating trading strategies for robustness, take a listen!

Today, we’re going to have a quick chat about the effectiveness of entries, and a simple technique you can use to determine how good an entry or exit really is. I’ve been working on some breakout strategies lately and I’ve noticed in some of them that the entry really isn’t that important at all… That is, I can be pretty loose with the entry values and get similar results… So there are other components to the strategy that are actually driving the performance. Now, this got me thinking about measuring the effectiveness of entries and exits, so today I want to share a technique that Kevin Davey calls the “monkey test”. And no, you don’t need actual monkeys for this! Let’s hear how Kevin uses the monkey test to check how good his entries and exits really are.

Glad you could join us today where we get to chat with Stefano Serafini – the current leader of the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading®* I met Stefano in New York at a trading masterclass a few years back and he’s been doing some great things with his trading. As I mentioned, he’s the current leader of the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading®* Sometimes in these trading competitions you see traders rocket to the top of the leaderboard really quickly, but they usually disappear just as quick. Anyone who’s been watching the competition this year would have noticed that Stefano has been pretty consistent so far, so we’re going to discuss his trading approach, especially around intraday trading strategies and portfolio construction. In our chat you will learn: How to use filtering on higher timeframes to produce higher quality intraday trades, How ‘time windows’ can improve trading results and what to look for, How to combine multiple strategies into a portfolio and then manage it to keep the portfolio fresh and performing optimally, A common mistake traders make with correlations that could give false results and how to overcome it.

As systematic and algorithmic traders, we have a number of tools and processes we can use to test and validate trading strategies. For example, in-sample/out-of-sample testing, walk forward analysis, cluster analysis and a bunch more. (And don’t forget all the fancy named techniques that have been lumped in with Machine Learning that are sometimes just rebadged techniques that have been around for ages already!) Anyway, one of the tools that we have at our disposal is Monte Carlo analysis. When you’re using a tool it can be good to understand how it works... What are it’s strengths? What are it’s weakness? Today I’m going to share with you a little bit of audio from Dave Walton of Statistrade, explaining the benefits of Money Carlo analysis, and also a few of the weakness or false assumptions around Monte Carlo analysis that we really need to be aware of if we want to manage Monte Carlo effectively. Let’s take a listen to what Dave has for us.

T Today I want to share with you one of my favourite Seinfeld episodes ever. It’s the episode where George Costanza realises that all of the decisions and actions he’s taken throughout his life have been the wrong ones. So he decides to do everything the opposite. He’s in the diner with Jerry and Elaine and he sees an attractive woman sitting up at the counter who seems to be interested in what he’s doing, glancing over at him. Instead of sitting back and doing nothing about it he does the opposite... He approaches the lady, announces that he’s a short, bald, unemployed man who still lives with his parents, and... She immediately goes out with him! Later on, he gets an interview for a job with the New York Yankees and during the interview he gets an opportunity to meet the owner. Instead of sucking up to the owner, he does the opposite and tells him how much the team sucks, how he’s done a poor job managing it, making stupid decisions etc, and... The owner immediately hires him! Every time George does the opposite of what he would usually do, it works out well. He succeeds. And guess what? It can sometimes be the same with trading too... Listen to find out how.

The markets are in a constant state of adaptation. Conditions change. Strategies fall in and out of sync with the market, causing periods of good and poor performance. So what can we do to improve consistency by making our systems adapt better to changes in market conditions? Our guest for this episode, Brian Miller, is from Optimized Trading, and in our chat he shares with us: Why implementing adaptability into strategy design is so important and some techniques you can use to create adaptive systems today, Why market classification needs to be considered and the types of approaches you can use to classify the market, How to pursue a multi-model structure that adjusts dynamically to changing market conditions, Plus much more. Note: This is the 1st part of 2 recordings, look out for the 2nd part coming soon!

Over the last few months you may have noticed an increase in the number of articles being published on the internet using Market Breadth to predict which way the stock markets could go next. In fact, I saw one just recently that said the US stock market is set for a parabolic move. Now, as systematic traders I'm sure most of us are not really interested in predicting those types of things... However Market Breadth measures can provide us with additional insights into the underlying conditions in the market that aren’t so obvious looking at a price chart. So today I want to share with you some Market Breadth knowledge from Greg Morris, who oversaw the management of over 5.5 billion dollars. Take a few minutes now to hear from Greg about Market Breadth and what it can reveal about the underlying conditions in the markets.

"I think most traders use canned indicators like a stochastic or RSI or MACD, with a fixed length without thinking much about them." - John Ehlers They take the default length, or one that performed well in a backtest, or even one that has been recommended by someone else, and they start trading with it. They may have a good run for a while... And then it falls apart for no explainable reason... The basic problem is that market conditions change, but indicators are fixed and don't adjust to changes in market activity. So how can we make our indicators more adaptive to market conditions? Take a listen as John Ehlers explains a technique we can use to build indicators that adapt to market conditions and also shares a simple trick to check if our indicators are in-tune with the markets or not.

I have to admit… I’m a bit of a sceptic. However, I’ve had so many people recommend meditation to me in the past. Successful people. People I have a lot of respect for. In fact, some of the previous podcast guests, some big names, have shared with me how powerful meditation has been for them, both personally and for their trading. But it’s not just traders, many successful business people swear by it too. So, what’s all the fuss about? I’m always on the lookout for anything extra that can give us an edge in the markets, so could meditation be something us traders can harness to our benefit? Or is it all just some weird mumbo jumbo sham? Well it’s time to find out, so in this episode I speak to Adam Grimes about meditation and trading, including: What is meditation, and does it actually work? What are the benefits and drawbacks of meditation and can it help traders become better? How to get started and what to expect. This is only a short episode, so even if you’re a sceptic like me and think this may have nothing to do with trading, I recommend you take a listen anyway. Try to approach it with an open mind and form your own opinion from there, so let’s jump over to our chat with Adam Grimes .

Today I want to share an optimization insight from Perry Kaufman. I was reading an article on a trading website and the author was making some assumptions based on the optimization results which may not have been entirely accurate. I think alot of traders can get caught up making this same assumption... I know I definitely have... And it's good to be reminded of these types of things so we don't make the same mistakes. Listen to Perry explaining what this assumption is, the danger in making it and how to overcome it.

A few years back I was on a holiday with friends at Hamilton Island in the Whitsundays. We were cruising around the island in a golf buggy when a friend suggests we go to the shooting range. I'd never even touched a gun before but while we were there I decided to shoot a .44 Magnum... 'the most powerful handgun in the world' according to Dirty Harry! Take a listen to hear what happens next and how it applies to trading.

Indicators often form a large part of trading systems, however there are a number of issues caused by indicators that can result in under-performing trading strategies, like: they're reactive, instead of predictive, they have alot of lag, which means they're slow to respond to the markets, and they can often give you a signal too late so you’ve already missed some of the move or even a large part of the move! Today we talk to John Ehlers who is going to share with us a brand new indicator he's developed that overcomes alot of these issues. This new indicator: Minimises lag, Is very responsive to the market, and Gives a fast indication of turning points. Plus at the end of the chat we share how you can get a FREE copy of this new indicator to try it out for yourself.

I'm currently in Sydney for a week doing some work, and I'm staying in one of the hotels near circular quay, overlooking Sydney Harbour. I won't share name of the hotel because it's a well-known name, and it's actually a really nice hotel... However I had an experience with them when I was checking in that I wanted to share because I think it has some nice parallels to trading strategies. Take a listen!

Most trading strategies are built to find repeatable patterns in the market and then attempt to exploit any future occurrences of the pattern to make a profit. There are lots of different ways to find patterns, and in this episode Brent Penfold talks about patterns in price action. Brent is a full time trader, author, educator and licensed Futures Advisor, and in our chat you will learn: Why it can be better to focus primarily on price instead of a collection of indicators, How to identify patterns in price action, The dangers of trading stocks and why Futures are a superior trading instrument for active traders, How a ‘universal dataset’ can lessen the risk of datamining, How to blend individual systems into a portfolio to produce smooth equity curves. PLUS, we announce the lucky winner of the Better System Trader ‘Super-package’ giveaway, worth almost $20,000!

Jack Schwager returns to answer all your trading questions. Jack is a well known expert in the industry, working for some of wall streets leading firms and is also one of the founders of FundSeeder. Plus, he's the author of the best-selling series of 'Market Wizards' books, which I'm sure most traders on this earth have read! In this 2nd part of our chat with Jack, he answers all of the trading questions you submitted (well most of them anyway, unfortunately we didn't have all day to talk!) Plus, to celebrate the milestone 100th episode, we've got a huge giveaway worth almost $20,000 -  and one lucky trader is going to win it. Listen for more details and information on how to enter.

When I was learning to snowboard, I still remember the first time I got off the lift chair, strapped myself in the board and looked down the mountain. It was really overwhelming and I wondered how I was actually going to get down there without any injuries! My instructor was very comforting telling us ‘Not to focus on the bottom of the mountain’, because even though that’s the destination, to get there we were actually going to zig-zag down the mountain. So we needed to focus on the next turn and how we were going to execute that. We were told to look where we wanted to go, so if you want to go left then look left, your shoulder/hips will turn, your body weight will shift on the board and that will steer the board. And as you’re moving across the mountain you obviously want to look for hazards, look for where you want to turn and focus on shifting your body weight to steer the board around the corner It was all about the process. By focusing on the process, the outcome would eventually come. That is you'd work your way down to the bottom of the mountain with hopefully no broken bones! However, if you were to just focus solely on the bottom of the mountain, then you're likely going to fall down and crash. Trading can be a very outcome-focused activity, there is the temptation to focus on the results of our trades. Did the trade make or lose money, how is our P/L progressing for the month or year? But is this the best focus for traders to have? Should we be focusing more on the outcome or the process and what produces the best results? Do we need to have a balance between the two, and if so how? Let’s take a listen to performance coach Rande Howell now as he shares a story about an Olympic hurdler and how his approach to focus applies to trading performance.

It can be really interesting and exciting to research the markets and test different ideas but at some stage we need to decide if the strategy is ready for live trading. Some traders can get stuck endlessly researching… Trying to find that perfect system… Which comes at a cost. How do we avoid getting bogged down in research? How do we know when a trading strategy is actually ready for trading? Let’s listen to Kris Longmore from Robot Wealth explain his approach to determining when a trading strategy is ready for live trading.

Jack Schwager needs no introduction. He's a well known expert in the industry, working for some of wall streets leading firms. Plus he's the author of the best-selling series of 'Market Wizards' books, which I'm sure most traders on this planet have read! In this chat with Jack we discuss Optimization Myths, referencing some interesting results of a study that analyses the effectiveness of optimization... The results may not be what you expect... And could have a huge impact on the way we test and trade strategies. There are plenty of other nuggets of info too, including: The relationship between the best performing past and future parameter sets, Why optimization adds very little to the power of a trading strategy and where to focus instead, and How to properly assess trading results to determine if it’s your strategy or the market that’s actually any good.

Did you know there are some situations that can cause traders to throw away perfectly viable trading strategies, without even realizing it? Imagine that! Putting all that hard work and effort into building a trading strategy but due to some arbitrary decision we’re making during the strategy creation process, we throw the strategy away... When it could have been a good trading strategy... So, what could be causing this? And, what’s the solution? Let’s hear Dave Walton from Statistrade explain what this danger actually is so we know what to look out for, and then briefly discuss one of the solutions to this 'hidden' problem.

Have you ever wondered what exactly is it that makes a trader successful? Is it based on personality? A specific approach to the markets? Pure luck? Dr Brett Steenbarger is a trader and performance coach, and gets heavily involved in the recruitment process for trading firms. He gets to interview traders, see how they work and analyse their performance so he’s in a really great position to make these types of observations. Take a listen to Brett sharing the 3 main components he's observed in successful traders.

How many traders do you know that have successfully cornered a market? If you're not familiar with the term 'corner the market', it means to get enough control of a commodity, stock or other asset so that you can manipulate the price. There are a number of documented cases in history where people have tried... ... and it usually doesn't work out too well for them! This weeks podcast guest Kurt Sakaeda has cornered a market, however it was more of an amusing accident that an intentional act. And this is just one of the entertaining stories Kurt shares with us in our chat today. Those familiar with the World Cup Trading championships would recognize Kurts name because he's won it a few times, with his first win in 2000 so he's been trading for a while. In our chat with Kurt we discuss a mixture of trading topics, including: How to include seasonality in trading models and why you don’t need to worry about curve-fitting seasonal trades, The dangers of counterparty risk and how to reduce them, Finding profitable trades in a crisis, and How Kurt accidentally cornered a futures market and the amusing results - the 'authorities' weren't too happy.

Last week I had to make an emergency trip to the hospital. It highlighted a gap in my trading 'operation' (pardon the pun) so I wanted to share that with you so that you can learn from my mistakes. How will your trading handle an emergency?

Have you ever dreamed of leaving your day job to trade for a living? Or living a life of freedom - travelling the world or hanging around at home, doing whatever you like during the day while you live off your trading profits? When I first started getting into trading I had this grand vision in my mind of leaving my corporate job, travelling the world, living a life of luxury all supported by my trading profits. It's a common goal for alot of traders, but getting to that stage can be difficult, and knowing when you're ready to make the leap can be challenging. I regularly receive emails from people asking questions like: How do I know I’m ready to trade for a living, How do I become a full-time trader, How much money do I need, What other factors do I need to consider before taking this step. The guest for this episode, Nick Radge from The Chartist, has an extensive trading history and also mentors other traders. He's in a great position to answer all of our questions on trading for a living, so that's what he's going to do for us today, plus... ... he's also going to share some honest advice that all traders need to hear before taking the step to 'trading for a living'.

“ When you have a bad entry, you can always work your way around it, but when you have a bad exit, this is final… This is when the P&L gets printed.” – Laurent Bernut Exits have such a dramatic impact on overall strategy performance, so having a full and proper understanding of the best way to leverage exits is absolutely essential. In this episode, Laurent Bernut from Alpha Secure Capital combines his witty sense of humor with his knowledge of exits, to entertain and to also share: How to classify exits and set them to achieve much clearer, neater, and better trading strategies, A simple technique to determine if you’ve overstayed your welcome in a trade, stay too long and you could suffer! How to use "the game of two-thirds" to determine the length of a time-exit, Plus much more, including the correct way to think about stop-losses, how to deal with free-loaders in a portfolio and the ultimate entry technique to test you have a robust exit strategy.

I recently received an email asking me where all the trading ideas are. I think every episode provides at least 1 idea of value, but one that stands out in my mind was the chat with Rob Hanna in episode 7. In that episode he share loads of trading ideas. But he also goes one step further and explains the technique he uses to find new trading ideas... Every. Single. Day. Using this technique we can find lots of ideas to test too. Take a listen to this short audio snippet from Rob explaining how he never runs out of trading ideas to test.

One of the appeals of automated trading is that it can be automated. You can 'set it and forget it' if you want. However there can be some dangers with doing so. About a year and a half ago I went through a period of being a little bit slack with monitoring my automated strategies and there was one occasion where my 'set it and forget' approach turned into a case of 'forget it and regret it'... ... A stop loss order for one of my strategies had been rejected ... I failed to check my trading platform for a few days because I was travelling and tired ... That particular lesson cost me 2-3 times the original stop loss size. So that was a stupid thing to do. But I learnt my lesson and now I check my trading platform alot more. A regular checkup to make sure everything is running smoothly is incredibly important because technology issues can (and will) happen at any time. But there's another process I've implemented which has helped me to identify issues that could have gone on for a lot longer if I'd left them unchecked. I got this process from Kevin Davey, so in this episode I've asked Kevin to join us for a quick chat to explain his own monitoring process some more, including some examples of the things he's found by following this process. So lets head over to my chat with Kevin Davey to hear more.

Market corrections can be a stressful and challenging time for some traders, but it can also be a time of incredible opportunity. How can we not only protect our trading accounts but also grow our capital even further during market corrections? Our guest for this episode, @Ivanhoff, is author of the book ‘Crash: How to Protect and Grow Capital During Corrections’ and in this episode he's going to share with us: Some of the warning signs a correction could be starting and how to protect your capital during market corrections, The opportunities available in market corrections and how to take advantage of these to grow capital, How the characteristics of corrections are changing over time and the impacts this could have for future market corrections, Current market conditions and what this could be telling us.

Earlier this week I was on a flight from LAX back to Melbourne. As we were sitting on the plane waiting for our departure I overheard a flight attendant say to a fellow passenger that one of the other planes had been struck by lightning causing delays to other flights. At the time I didn’t know if a lightning strike on a plane was a bad thing, it sure sounds like something you don’t want to experience, however it got me thinking about the risks of flying. Now admittedly, it’s probably not the best thing to be thinking about just before the plane takes off for a 16 hour flight across the Pacific ocean at night but luckily my thoughts quickly switched to trading and the risks we face as traders. One of the concepts which immediately came to my mind was ‘risk of ruin’, which we first discussed way back in episode 2. In that podcast interview, futures trader Brent Penfold says: "In my humble opinion, I think the risk of ruin is number one or the most important concept in trading." I want to share a little bit more of that audio with you now, because it explains: Why risk of ruin is such an important concept for traders to understand, What traders need to know about risk of ruin, How to calculate your own risk of ruin. Plus I'll share what happens to a plane when it's struck by lightning, so take a listen.

"Basing your decisions on past data is like driving down the road, looking in the rear-view mirror". For the most part, traders don't know what’s going to happen in the future and never will. In the previous podcast episode, Gary Hart explains how considering future probabilities can be beneficial, suggesting traders “base decisions on the probable future instead of the certain past.” In this episode, we explore this idea further by reviewing a dangerous trading assumption and how traders can better position themselves for future market conditions.

Our guest for the episode is Gary Hart, the founder of Trendfinder Trading Systems, a company offering mechanical intraday and swing trading strategies in futures. Gary has been trading futures for close to two decades now, becoming a member of the NFA and a registered CTA. He's had a number of trading strategies take the top spots in Futures Truth rankings so we’re going to discuss how he builds trading strategies that do that plus we also cover a lot of other aspects of trading, including: The challenges of developing day-trading strategies and how to overcome them The worst time to trade intraday strategies that can hurt performance Why price-based strategies have lost their edge and how integrating additional data can provide superior performance over purely price-based strategies How to construct a portfolio of strategies and identify ones that complement each other Plus much more, including overfitting, optimization, swing-trading, correlation, market behaviour, index trading, volatility and reusing trading ideas.

One of the biggest challenges we face as traders is strategies that either fail or experience a reduction in performance over time. There are a number of possible causes for this, one obviously being changes in the market. In podcast Episode 10, Perry Kaufman discussed the change in the markets and how they've become noisier over time, with an increase in erratic movements up and down. This increase in market noise can have a huge impact on trading strategies and particular trading styles too and we're going to hear a little bit more about that from Perry today, including: How market noise has changed over time and what it means to different markets, How to measure the level of market noise, The impacts market noise has on particular trading styles and how to adjust strategies accordingly, and How this information can be used to our advantage to determine the type of strategy that suits a market. So lets take a listen to Perry.

Last week I finished reading a book called ‘Peak – Secrets from the new science of expertise’. I wanted to share a concept from that book with you today because it contains a model that has the potential to: accelerate the learning process and dramatically increase our level of expertise in a short amount of time. What trader wouldn't want that? Most people tend to assume that if they keep working on something they will automatically get better at it, but performance scientists have shown that is not necessarily what happens. A lot of people reach a certain level of competence and plateau... Others don’t really progress much at all... And often the process can take a long time to play out, progress can be slow... So that leads to the question, is it possible to reduce the amount of time that process takes? Are there techniques that we can use to accelerate the process? Well, there are and today we’re going to talk about one called "deliberate practice". Our special guest, Kris Longmore from Robot Wealth, is going to explain what deliberate practice is and how we can leverage it to become better traders, faster.

Machine learning has seen a huge amount of growth over recent years with the increase in available data and processing power. It's an incredibly powerful toolset for uncovering patterns and relationships in data, however, these tools can be challenging to learn, apply correctly and are also open to abuse. Our guest for the episode, Kris Longmore from Robot Wealth, specializes in Machine Learning, Algorithmic Trading and Artificial Intelligence. He is the co-founder and Head of Quantitative Research at Quantify Partners and also provides consulting and educational services through his website Robot Wealth. In this episode Kris is going to share with us some of his insights into Machine Learning and strategy validation, including: How Machine Learning can be used to analyse huge amounts of data, uncover patterns and relationships, and define a trading edge, How Machine Learning tools can be abused and the common mistakes that traders make with Machine Learning, Strategy validation techniques that best suit market data and 1 popular technique that shouldn't be used, How to approach the vast libraries of algorithms available today, Why delaying the trading process can lead to opportunity cost and how to know when a model is ready for trading, Plus much more.

One of the main challenges with Mean Reversion trading is when to get into a trade, which can have a huge impact on profit and drawdown levels. How far from the Mean should we wait before considering a trade? PJ Sutherland shares the approach he uses to: Lower drawdowns Reduce the role of luck in trading Produce performance results that more closely resemble backtest results.

"My best losing year ever" and how traders can become better by learning from drawdowns, losses and other trading challenges.

With the toolsets we have available to us today it’s really quite easy to create a trading strategy by just mining market data. As we've just heard in that opening bit of audio and also from previous podcast guests too, if you try enough combinations you can find something that appears to work purely by chance or by luck. The challenge however is trying to identify something that could be sustainable. Something that may persist long enough in the future for us to take advantage of, and hopefully make some money from. Our guest for this episode, Dave Bergstrom from BuildAlpha, has spent years researching, building, testing, and implementing market making and trading strategies for a high frequency trading firm, CTAs, money managers, individual clients, and even aspiring retail traders. In this episode Dave is going to share some of his insights into strategy development and validation, including: How adjusting the ratio of in-sample/out-of-sample data can lead to creating different types of strategies Variance testing – what is it and how can it be used in the strategy creation process How E-ratios can be used to determine how an edge decays over time & weed out potentially poor strategies with good backtest results Why volume and volatility are important factors to consider when building trading strategies Loads of other ideas to test and validate the robustness of trading strategies.

My face-off with a deadly brown snake - what can traders learn?

In the previous podcast episode with Larry Tentarelli, we opened up the opportunity to submit questions for Larry and received quite a few pages. Surprisingly, a large portion of the questions were about exits. Why are exits so hot? I actually asked Larry why he thought exits were such a hot topic and he suggested that perhaps exits are an area that people really struggle with. This got me thinking about exits more and I recalled an interesting point that Murray Ruggiero made back in episode 42. I think Murray raised a really important concept which most traders may not even consider when they’re looking at exits and specifically how to choose the best type of exit for your strategy, which we’ll get to in just a sec. How do you choose the right exit? Larry was kind enough to share his philosophy behind exits but you may have noticed that he didn’t give exact details about them, which I think was intentional because it’s something that traders really need to figure out for themselves. So then how do you go about choosing the best type of exits for a strategy? Let’s take a listen to Murray answering a question from a listener about exits.

As traders, we can sometimes get tempted into making things more complicated than they need to be. Entries... Exits... Position sizing... Trade management... There are a number of aspects to trading where we get to decide how simple or complicated we really want to make it. Our guest for this episode, Larry Tentarelli, has developed a simple, no nonsense approach to trading and in our chat he shares the trading insights and approaches he's developed over the past 20 years. In this episode Larry shares: Simple techniques to trading and trade management that turned Larrys trading consistently profitable How traders can overcome the challenges of finding a trading style that suits their personality The “four legs of a table” approach to trading and why it’s so important for trading success Why there is no perfect entry signal and the key aspect of trading you should focus on instead PLUS a bunch of listener questions submitted by you!

Did you know that Dr Seuss wrote the book “Green Eggs and Ham” on a bet that he couldn’t write a book with 50 words or less? That’s right, in 1960, the founder of Random House made a $50 bet with Dr. Seuss that he would not be able to write a book using only 50 different words. Well he accepted the challenge… Creating “Green Eggs and Ham”… And that book has sold more than 200 million copies, making it one of the best-selling childrens books in history! Think that was a fluke? Dr Seuss found that setting constraints was so powerful he used it with other books as well. His book ‘The Cat in the Hat’ was limited to around 250 different words from a list of 348 words selected from a first graders vocabulary list. That book sold millions of copies too. Dr Seuss is just one example of the power of constraints, showing us that setting limits can often produce better results than “keeping our options open”. Constraints can force us to think better, work better, and come up with more creative solutions. So how can we apply this principle to trading? What impact can it have? In this episode we discuss a few ideas from Kevin Davey, take a listen.

One of the most common uses for optimization is to find the best value or best group of values for a trading strategy, but is this approach only giving us part of the picture? Are there other uses for optimization that we can leverage to create better trading strategies? Today we’re going to have a quick chat with World Cup Trading Champion Andrea Unger,  the only trader to ever win the competition 3 years in a row. Andrea has a slightly different view on optimization which we touched upon in a previous podcast episode, back in Episode 16. Today we’re going to dig into that a little more and hear Andrea’s thoughts on optimization and how he uses it to get a deeper understanding of the markets.

Our guest for this episode is Art Collins. Art’s story is interesting because in his younger days he was an expert card counter in black jack, and he’s translated some of those skills into building robust trading strategies from really simple market concepts. Not only is Art a trader but he’s published a number of books and magazines articles, he’s done lecturing, both online and offline so I’m sure you’ve seen his name around the place and it’s an honor to have him here on the show today. In this episode Art shares: How to combine simple market concepts to create robust trading strategies The four rules of system development to reduce over-optimization Simple ways to improve the statistical reliability of our strategies What traders can learn from Arts experiences being an expert card counter in black jack

Let me tell you the story of 2 lumberjacks and how we can become better traders by NOT trading.

Let's have a bit of fun today. It's Australia Day, so we're going with an Aussie theme for this Thursday Trading Thought... I'm going to share an email about a lamington and what it can teach us about trading strategies. (Yes, food and trading combined - it's ingenious! Just don't listen to it before bed...)   Happy Australia Day!

Risk Management… It's not as sexy as the latest hot indicator… Or the undiscovered penny stock poised for an explosive move… Or the trading guru who appeared out of nowhere and is now promising to share the “secrets” to making million dollar profits overnight… … But there are a whole host of risks that have the potential to destroy trading accounts in just seconds, so it’s an incredibly important topic for serious traders to consider. We have plenty of examples in history that show what happens when Risk Management goes bad, so what can we learn from these and how can we best protect ourselves from catastrophic losses? Our guest for this episode, Robert Carver, is an independent systematic trader, freelance writer and research consultant. He spent years working for one of the world’s largest systematic hedge funds and is the author of “Systematic Trading: A unique new way to make investment and trading decisions.” In this episode, Rob shares with us: The different types of risk we face as traders – including ‘hidden’ risks that can destroy trading accounts in seconds What can go wrong when Risk Management goes bad (we have some great examples in history to learn from!) Common mistakes and assumptions traders make with Risk Management that can lead to heavy losses Tips and techniques to identifying and “managing” Risk

Today we have a quick chat about technology and in particular Blockchain. Yes, Blockchain has been around for a few years now but we’re really seeing more and more of it in the news lately, and there has been a lot of hype about the potential applications of this technology. Some people have even said the Blockchain will have a greater impact on our lives than ANY other technology that exists today. How big is that? Much of the hype around Blockchain has been focused on the financial industry, or the potential for Blockchain to fundamentally change the financial services industry. Which got me thinking.. ... How could this impact us in the future, both as traders and as fine, upstanding members of society? :-) Anyway, my own personal knowledge of Blockchain was pretty limited - even though I’d heard of it a number of times I didn’t really have an idea of what it was. But I do remember that Bert Mouler mentioned it episode 64 of the podcast where we were discussing cryptocurrencies. So I asked Bert to come back on the show and give us a very quick introduction into Blockchain: What is it Why are people so excited about it The possible applications to the financial services industry, traders and society in general. So let’s head over to Bert and hear what the fuss is all about!

How do we know when it's time to quit working on a trading strategy and move on to something else? Here's a lesson from the TV show Gold Rush.

The guest for this episode is Jack Vogel from Alpha Architect, a quantitative asset management and consulting firm. Jack has published a number of papers on SSRN and also co-authored a couple of books including “Quantitative Momentum: a practitioners guide to building a momentum-based stock selection system”. In our chat with Jack you will hear: Momentum - what is it, what causes it and the different types you need to be aware of How to best apply momentum techniques to a portfolio Why measuring the quality of a trend is so important and how to do it

What can traders learn from airline pilot Captain Sullenberger and his response and actions landing a plane in the Hudson River?

So here it is: The Top 10 Trading Lessons for 2016! I have to admit, creating this list was really fun. Not only because I got to look back and remember all of the great episodes we released and the knowledge that these fantastic guests shared with us, but also because I had the chance to think about the impact these episodes hopefully had on your trading too. This Top 10 List was chosen based on a few factors, including download stats, feedback from listeners and some of my own personal favorites. So although this list is not solely based on analytics, each episode was chosen with the intention to offer powerful trading insights as you move into the new year. So if you missed any of these episodes, make sure you listen to them before we ring in the new year! Also make sure to download the FREE BONUS audio package — This audio contains the biggest trading lessons from each of the guests in this Top 10 list and I compiled them to make sure we all learn from their insights. It’s only short but it’s packed with valuable info! One last note: NONE of this would be possible without you and your support. So I want to THANK YOU for a fantastic 2016! So (drumroll please…..) here they are: My Top 10 Trading Lessons for 2016

As markets become more mature and more efficient, it can be become increasingly difficult to find sustainable edges. Many traders are looking at the same data and using the same techniques, so what are our options here? 2 of the obvious options we have are: Try to find a unique approach to the markets or at least something that isn't so popular, Explore alternative markets where inefficiencies are more prevalent. In this episode, our guest Bert Mouler is going to discuss both options and share his solutions. Bert has been an independent trader for close to a decade and is the President and CIO of Profluent Capital, which uses advanced AI and machine learning technology to produce uncorrelated alpha for their clients. In our chat today, you will learn: Cryptocurrency markets – what to trade, the huge inefficiencies that exist and finding edges in the bitcoin markets The advantages and disadvantages of Machine Learning and tips to use it effectively in trading Feature engineering and the importance of looking at data in unique ways

Most trading strategies have an optimal type of market condition where they work at their absolute best, so having an understanding of market conditions and being able to detect and adapt to them can really have a huge impact on trading performance. But how can we measure market regimes properly? What techniques can we use to find that delicate balance between stability and reactivity so that it improves performance rather than reduces it? Our guest for this episode, Alan Clement, has completed considerable research into market regimes and is going to share his knowledge with us today! Alan is a Certified Financial Technician, full time independent trader, quantitative trading systems designer and private investment consultant. In our chat today, you will learn: Market regimes – what they are and how they can impact the performance of your trading strategies The different types of Market Regimes and key aspects to consider when defining them Indicators, market breadth and intermarket measures – which ones are the best for detecting market regimes?

The performance profile of Mean Reversion is extremely desirable to a lot of traders. Mean reversion trading strategies can produce high win rates and a smooth equity curve, however there are risks, which can result in giving back a large portion of profits, or of your trading account, some times in a very short period of time. So what can you do to build mean reversion strategies that produce consistent profits while managing risk effectively? Todays guest, PJ Sutherland, is here to share the knowledge he has gained from years of research and trading mean reversion strategies, and as you’re going to hear, he has some really interesting insights to share with us. PJ has extensive experience in the development and deployment of quantified trading systems and has been active in the market for the past decade. He is the founder and director of Alpha Investment Advisors, providing research to hedge funds and prop trading firms, and the founder of the website Quantlab for private traders. In our chat today, you will learn: The key drivers of short-term returns in mean reversion trading The impact of market environments on mean reversion strategies and how to detect and adjust strategies to varying market conditions Should you 'Catch a falling knife' or wait for confirmation? How to determine which entry technique is best for you Building a portfolio of strategies using parameter ranges across the mean reversion curve Simple but powerful techniques to managing risk in mean reversion strategies

There are a number of different aspects to trading that we really need to get a handle on to increase our odds of success. Some aspects we often put a lot of thought and analysis into, and others we may not consider so carefully or at all, which could be impacting our trading results without us even realizing. Todays guest, Dr Howard Bandy, is here to discuss the foundations of trading, and some of these aspects we really need to consider, whether we’re just starting out or a more experienced trader. Howard has over 50 years experience in the research and application of modelling and simulation of financial systems. He has previously worked as a senior research analyst for a CTA firm, is a consultant to trading companies and individuals, as well as being an international speaker and publishing a number of books on quantitative trading systems. In our chat today, you will learn: How to systematically choose the right markets to fit you risk profile, trading style and objectives The 3 characteristics a market must have to be tradable The difference between Impulse signals vs State signals and how they can be used to manage trades and monitor trade health The four parameters you need to understand to define your own risk tolerance Choosing the best objective function to evaluate trading strategy performance

Why is it that some traders can create trading strategies that perform well in real-time trading while other strategies fall apart? How do some traders keep their trading strategies fresh and adaptive to market conditions while other strategies just stop working altogether? Robert Pardo, president of Pardo Capital, author of the book ‘The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies’ and creator of the ‘Walk Forward Analysis’ approach, is here to chat about creating and optimizing strategies that are robust and continue to work in the future. In our chat today, you will learn: Common mistakes traders make that can cause strategies to fail in real-time trading The dangers of traditional optimization techniques and how they can be reduced and even overcome How to determine if a strategy really is robust, while keeping it fresh and adapting to market conditions

Who wants a steadily rising equity curve with little or no drawdown? I'm sure most traders do, but unfortunately it doesn’t usually end up that way. Drawdown is a big part of trading and can be one of the the biggest challenges traders face, so what techniques can we use to potentially help reduce drawdowns? Our guest for this episode, Scott Phillips, is going to share techniques he uses to manage drawdowns in his own trading. In our chat you will learn: How to quickly test a trading idea to determine if it’s worth more investigation Why it’s so important to understand market types, the impacts it could be having on your trading results and how you can leverage this knowledge to create strategies with enhanced performance How to improve your trading results through better trade management and multiple exits.

Building robust trading strategies that can detect and adapt to market conditions can be a real challenge, and failure to do so can often result in poor trading performance and drawdowns. How can we build more robust trading strategies that adapt to market conditions as they change? Our guest for this episode, John Ehlers, who has a guest on episode 48, joins us to share some common problems traders face when building trading strategies along with tips on how to overcome them. In our chat you will learn: Tips and techniques to detecting and adapting to market conditions Common problems traders face with indicators and how to fix them The 4 requirements to building a robust trading strategy How the conventional wisdom of using indicators causes late signals and how to use them to anticipate instead A simple technique to determine if your indicators are working properly for the market conditions

Trading algorithmically based on sentiment data is a relatively new field compared to more established approaches. With the explosion of social media and computing power, the analysis of sentiment data has also increased, with some hedge funds committing considerable resources to researching the applications of sentiment data in trading. However, there is also some skepticism of the value of analyzing social media for trading, so what is sentiment trading all about? Can sentiment actually be used in trading models and how? Our guest for this episode, Richard Peterson, has been analyzing sentiment for over 20 years. He started what was probably the world’s first fund specializing in sentiment trading, and now runs a company called MarketPsych, specializing in the collection and analysis of sentiment data. In our chat you will learn: Why sentiment is so important and how it can give traders an edge The challenges of using sentiment data in trading models The best and worst markets for sentiment analysis as a predictor Applications of sentiment analysis in quant models and the future of sentiment analysis

Whether you’re a retail trader with a small account or a fund manager with millions or billions under management, something that we all need to consider carefully as traders is how or where we’re going to use the money in our trading accounts. 'Capital allocation' sounds boring but it can have such a huge impact on our trading results. Unfortunately, it can sometimes be overlooked for other aspects of trading like entries and exits, leaving traders with an inefficient use of their capital and can result in lower returns and poor performance. Can we use our trading capital more efficiently to achieve higher returns? And if we can, then how? Todays guest, Michael Melissinos, started out as a junior analyst at Bear Stearns and is now running his own systematic trend-following fund Melissinos Trading. Mike is a competitive guy, always looking for ways to improve his trading performance and in today’s episode he's going to share with us some practical ideas and research, including: The 3 most important things that influence trading performance Why what you trade is more important than entries and exits Ideas to improve trading results through dynamic capital allocation How to use indicator scores to measure trend strength And much more.

Today’s guest is a trader that has been requested quite a few times actually, I’ve had a lot of requests to have this person as a guest on the show, and the guest is Adam Grimes. Adam has two decades of experience in the industry as a trader, analyst and system developer and is currently Chief Investment Officer of Waverly Advisors. He’s previously held positions at Level Partners, MBF Asset Management and SMB Capital and is the author of ‘The Art & Science of Technical Analysis: Market Structure, Price Action & Trading Strategies’. For those of you that know Adam and his work, his approach to trading is a mix of quant and discretion, and I think even if you’re a purely systematic or quant based trader it’s interesting to hear other people’s approaches and points of view. So we start off the chat by discussing his approach of mixing quant and discretionary models, and then we move onto behavioral factors in the market and why approaches that look at the market as purely rational fail. We then end the chat discussing Keltner channels and their applications to trading, so there’s quite a variation in topics here but I’m sure you’ll find it interesting. Topics discussed Mixing discretionary decisions with a quantitative framework Why behavioral factors in the markets are so important and why approaches that look at the market as purely rational fail The application of Keltner Channels in trading

When I was preparing for the previous podcast episode on system trading through the Brexit, I had to review some of the past podcast episodes so that I could include some background content for the guests, and as I was going through some of those past episodes I realized that there was so much great information in them that I had already forgotten about. I even found some concepts or ideas that didn’t really catch my interest because it wasn't appropriate to my trading at the time but it’s now more relevant to me personally, so I thought it might be time to do another review of some of the past episodes as a reminder and to perhaps gain or reinforce past insights. Last year, we did a podcast episode where we reviewed episodes 1- 20. That was episode 30 if you’d like to go back and hear that. In this episode we'll review lessons and highlights from episodes 21-40. Some of the topics we’ll be discussing are: How to never run out of trading ideas, The importance of creativity and a simple technique to increasing our creativity, How to manage data mining and avoid overfitting, A number of approaches to building robust trading strategies, How to bet bigger with a smaller overall risk, Plus much more!  

The results of the Brexit decision took a lot of people by surprise and the markets reacted accordingly. What was interesting about this market event is that we all knew the date and time period when the Brexit votes would start rolling in, so we had a rough idea when we might see some type of market reaction, if the market reacted at all. As systematic traders, what should we do in this type of situation: Should we continue trading as usual, following our systems? Should we override our systems to reduce exposure, or perhaps temporarily stop trading altogether? Are there any other approaches that we should consider? How do we go about deciding what to do? In this episode we’re asking 13 system traders and past guests of the podcast (actually it's 12 past guests and one future guest) about their approach to trading around the Brexit vote. I’ll be asking them what their trading plan was going into the Brexit decision and you might be surprised with some of their answers. I’ll also be asking them what factors they considered to reach that decision, whether they were happy with the approach after the event and any key learnings we can get out of this experience. I personally found it really interesting to hear what they had to say so I’m sure you will too. Topics discussed How 13 pro system traders approached the Brexit decision - did they trade through it, reduce exposure, stop trading or something else? Their answers may surprise you! The factors they considered when deciding on that approach Lessons learned and insights from their results and the market reaction to the Brexit decision

Traders are always looking for an edge and today's guest shares a simple approach he calls an 'unfair trading advantage', that can have a dramatic impact on trading strategy performance. The guest on this episode has been on the show before, to discuss breakout trading strategies back in Episode 43. In that episde we discussed the steps to building breakout strategies and we even released a breakout strategy toolkit, included an ebook, cheatsheet and EasyLanguage code for 2 breakout trading strategies. In this episode, our guest Tomas Nesnidal will be sharing a different trading approach, and it’s something he likes to call ‘an unfair trading advantage’. He’s going to explain to us what it is and why he calls it an 'unfair advantage.' It's something that a lot of traders have probably heard about but perhaps are not aware of how to use it properly or even the positive impact it can have on trading results. Tomas will explain it in this chat so take a listen! Topics discussed An 'unfair trading advantage' all traders should consider for their own trading strategies The technique that most traders have probably heard about but don't know how to use properly The incredible impacts this technique can have on trading performance

Today we’re covering a topic which can really be a concern for traders of all levels, from beginner to pro, and that is the topic of strategy evaluation. Have you ever found that real-life performance does not match expected results? Or perhaps you have a strategy that is stuck in a drawdown and wondering if it’s actually broken? I’m sure we’ve all heard of data mining bias, over-optimization and curve fitting and the impacts this can have on our trading accounts. We may be even using techniques such as Out Of Sample testing, Walk Forward Analysis, Monte Carlo analysis and a number of other measures to identify or reduce the impact of these issues, but do these approaches actually work? Are there limitations or dangers with these techniques? Are there better ways? In this episode we talk to someone who evaluates trading systems for a living, plus his research into system evaluation techniques has won awards. The guest is Dave Walton. Dave was the winner of the Wagner award in 2014 for a paper titled ‘Know your system – turning data mining bias to benefit through System Parameter Permutation’. In our chat today we talk about the technique in his paper and how it can be applied to trading strategy evaluation. We also discuss some of the assumptions and limitations of the approach, and he shares with us some valuable insights he’s made since publishing the paper which have resulted in an updated approach he now considers a better alternative, so make sure you listen out for that. Topics discussed How the typical approaches to system development can introduce datamining bias without you knowing The types of systems that can increase the chance of data mining bias and what to look for How the method of splitting your out of sample data could be causing you to throw away good strategies Out of sample, walk forward analysis and Monte Carlo - do they actually reduce data mining bias? The problems with using Monte Carlo analysis to assess strategy performance and why it doesn’t protect from overfitting System Parameter Permutation - how to use it, why use the median, parameter range selection and new insights since the SPP paper was published How System Parameter Randomization solves some of the issues of System Parameter Permutation Stochastic modelling and how it can be used to determine if a rule is adding value to your strategy

Nelson Freeburg was the editor of Formula Research, a newsletter that developed systematic timing models for the stock, bond, and commodity markets. He was also a research consultant working with institutional money managers to design proprietary timing models. Nelson had been an active trader since 1980 and occasionally spoke about his work to audiences around the world. In this episode, Linda Raschke shares memories of Nelson, his approach to model development and what we can learn by studying his work. Topics discussed Timing models and the components Nelson used in his models Russell growth vs Russell value model Out of sample testing and sample size Why Nelson focused so much on reducing drawdown Nelsons biggest strengths in modelling and what we can learn from his approach Voting systems The benefits of overlaying models

Markets are constantly changing. Trading edges come and go. In an industry with such a low survival rate, where some areas are changing at an ever increasing rate, what does it actually take to not only survive, but thrive, over an extended period of time? The guest on this episode, Linda Raschke, has been trading for over 35 years. She traded for several hedge funds before starting her own, ranking 17th out of 4500 hedge funds by Barclays Hedge for 'Best 5 year performance'. She's experienced a large number of changes in the industry, some of them have been huge, but she’s managed to adapt and continues trading even today. Linda stand out from the crowd for three factors: Performance, Longevity and Consistency, so what does it actually take? What has she learnt over the years and what can we do to improve our own chances of performance, longevity and consistency? In our chat with Linda we discuss some of the changes she’s experienced over the years and the impacts this has had on trading. We also hear about her approach to modelling the markets, understanding market behavior, trade management, day trading techniques and some fantastic questions submitted by fellow listeners. Make sure you don’t miss those! Topics discussed Changes in the markets over time and the impacts that has had on strategies and their performance How to use modelling to identify market behavior and edges AI, machine learning and neural network techniques Tips and factors to consider when daytrading Reading market behavior throughout the day PLUS loads of great questions submitted by Better System Trader listeners!

Trading can be tough, markets are noisy and finding signals in the market noise can be challenging. Also, applying indicators to trading strategies can introduce lag, however a lot of traders don’t even realize the lag their indicators are introducing or the impact it can have on trading. In fact, the guest in our chat today, John Ehlers said “One of the biggest enemies of traders is lag”. So, what's the solution? John Ehlers is well known in the commodity futures arena as the Creator of MESA, having pioneered the MESA method of cycle analysis in the late 1970's and becoming the founder of MESA Software. He is author of four books including Rocket Science for Traders, Cycle Analytics for Traders, Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures and MESA and Trading Market Cycles. He has also been a contributing editor of Stocks & Commodities, winning a number of awards for his work. In our chat with John we discuss the issue of indicator lag, the impact it can have on trading and some solutions. We also talk about applications of Digital Signal Processing in trading, the MESA approach, regime switching, Cycles and the mistakes people make trading cycles. Topics discussed MESA and it’s application to trading Alternatives to the MESA approach and which is best for the markets How cycle length can determine indicator length Common mistakes people make with cycles Cycles and DSP techniques as regime filters The problems caused by indicator lag and solutions to reducing lag The best low-lag filter and oscillator available Getting started with Cycles and DSP  

Backtesting and execution are such key parts of algorithmic trading so choosing the wrong platform can have a huge impact on our trading. There are loads of trading platforms available and a lot of considerations which need to be made when choosing one that suits our needs, so in this episode we’ll be discussing backtesting and execution platforms with Nitesh Khandelwal, department head at QuantInsti who also co-founded iRageCapital and iRage Global Advisory Services. After our chat on algorithmic trading platforms we’ll also cover statistical arbitrage, high frequency trading and some interesting audience questions, so listen out for those. Topics discussed The 3 key components to an algorithmic trading platform and the basic questions you need to answer before choosing a trading platform Why backtesting and execution platforms should be separate Choosing a programming language and why python has become a popular choice in trading The benefits and drawbacks of using python in trading Statistical Arbitrage, how it came about and the benefits of the approach The primary risks of statistical arbitrage, especially during times of market stress and how they can be reduced The most important factor in stat arb trading Common mistakes traders make when building statistical arbitrage models

I’m sure we all want to create trading strategies that perform better and last for longer but there are a number of issues we need to look out for when developing robust trading strategies, some are well-known and some perhaps aren't. In this episode we’ll be talking with Perry Kaufman about strategy development and more specifically some of the issues that can catch us out when creating trading strategies. Perry raises some interesting points about optimization that may not be well known plus he shares loads of tips to creating more robust strategies. Perry writes extensively on markets and strategies, having published fourteen books and has just released a new book on building algorithmic trading strategies, which we'll be discussing in this episode. He has worked and consulted to a number of successful CTA, investment and prop trading groups, creating systematic trading and hedging programs. This is also his 2nd appearance on the podcast, appearing as a guest way back in Episode 10. Topics discussed The most robust type of systems How your choice of optimization values could be misrepresenting your results and how to choose parameters that give a more accurate picture The mistakes traders make when analyzing optimization runs and tips to doing it properly How to really determine if a new trading rule is robust Reducing risk by using multiple parameters What the number of profitable runs in an optimization can tell you about the robustness of a strategy Why diversifying across strategies instead of across markets could be a better approach The challenges of building robust strategies using Genetic Algorithms and Neural Networks

Andrea Unger is the only trader to ever win the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading ®* titles 3 years in a row, with returns of 672% in 2008 (futures division), 115% in 2009 (futures division) and 240% in 2010 (futures & forex division). This is his 2nd appearance on the podcast, he was also a guest on Episode 16. In this episode Andrea discusses his approach to trade entries, how the traditional approach to entries can limit our ability to read the market and how he's modified the standard approach to identify entry opportunities. Topics discussed The typical approach to entries and how Andrea uses a modified approach to identify and test his entries Why starting an entry with a setup can limit your ability to read the markets The grouping of setups and how the style of trigger you use can determine the most appropriate setup The best timeframes for indicators and the impact lower timeframes can have on indicators Combining intraday and daily timeframes for better entries How Daily Factor can be used to determine the type of move to expect next Symmetrical patterns - when it makes sense to use symmetry and when it doesn’t  

Back in Episode 32 we had a chat with Laurent Bernut, a systematic short seller who spent years working in the Hedge Fund world specializing in short selling strategies. He shared loads of knowledge with us in that episode but we actually had a lot more to talk about. We ran out of time back then so in this episode we’re going to continue with the chat, covering a bit more on short selling, including common problems and mistakes traders make when short selling, the 5 psychological stages of a bear market, how these stages manifest in market behavior and where we are now. We also chat about his Convex position sizing model, visualizing your trading edge and how to tilt it more in your favor PLUS he shares with us a special trick to switch our minds from a flight or fight mode back into a state of flow. We also have some great questions submitted by podcast listeners so listen out for those. Topics discussed Common problems traders face when short selling When to never short a stock The 5 psychological stages of a bear market, how they manifest in the markets and where are we now? How Laurents Convex position sizing model adapts position size differently in periods of performance and drawdown Visualizing your trading edge and tilting it in your favor based on trading style The main components of a short trading strategy Why a break of support is often not the best place to enter a short trade and what to do instead A simple 'jedi mind trick' that switches your mind from fight or flight into a flow state

Tomas Nesnidal has been a full-time trader for over 11 years, specializing in automated algorithmic trading strategies. He has experience with a number of trading styles, including option trading, spread trading, statistical arbitrage and market internals but in this episode we’re going to discuss one of his other specialties, breakout trading. In our chat we discuss the key components of a breakout strategy and how to combine them to create profitable trading strategies. We also discuss the degradation of strategies over time, how to add new life into old strategies and why creative thinking is such an important aspect of successful trading. In this episode we discuss The benefits of trading breakout strategies and what makes a good breakout strategy How to build profitable breakout strategies using 4 key components The degradation of strategies over time and how to add new life into old strategies Using filters to improve trading results Adapting strategies to market conditions The best timeframes and markets for breakout strategies

Murray Ruggiero is the chief systems designer and market analyst at Tuttle Wealth Management, with around 200 million dollars under management. He is one of the world’s foremost experts on the use of intermarket and trend analysis in locating and confirming developing price moves in the markets. He is also a speaker, author and has been a contributing editor to Futures magazine since 1994, producing over 180 articles. In this episode we discuss various aspects of system development, including optimization, curve-fitting and creating robust strategies. We also discuss why strategies must have a premise, the importance and applications of intermarket analysis, cycles and a bunch of great questions from the audience. In this episode we discuss Factors to success in system development Why it’s important to understand the underlying premise of a system Techniques to reduce or avoid curve-fitting and develop robust strategies Why Intermarket Analysis is so important and how it can be used to create profitable trading strategies How to get started with intermarket analysis and common issues traders face Using cycles to detect market breakouts and other applications PLUS questions from the audience on... How to determine if a strategy has broken down or is just in a normal state of drawdown The relationship between drawdown and time Creating robust strategies and which ones have stood the test of time Performance of Tuttle Wealth Management and the differences between managing money for others and trading your own money Exits and how to choose the correct exit for your entry method Effective uses of AI in trading Regime switching between strategies The future of trading

For those traders looking for an edge in every aspect of trading, today's topic is something that isn't discussed too much but has had a great impact on the 2 guests of this episode. The topic is collaboration in trading and the guests are Michael Cook and Kevin Davey. Both of these guests have appeared on the podcast before, with Michael being a guest on Episode 39 and Kevin being a guest on Episode 5 and Episode 38. Both have extensive trading experience too, successfully trading their own money and others. In this episode they share the impact collaboration has had on their own trading as well as why collaboration is so important, the actual benefits to traders, how to find the right people and tips to maximising effectiveness. In this episode we discuss Why it pays to put the work into strategies other people would find awkward or too difficult Why collaboration is so important in trading The benefits of collaboration and what you could be missing out on The different levels of collaboration and tips to maximising it's effectiveness How to determine if someone may be a good fit for collaboration How to find traders to collaborate with The most important aspects of trading The most common mistake traders make

Larry Williams has been a guest of the podcast before, sharing insights from 50 years of trading in Episode 20. In 1987 he won the World Cup™ trading championship, turning $10,000 to over $1.1 million in 12 months. He is a published author, with a long list of best-selling books and has also created a number of market indicators including Williams %R, Ultimate Oscillator, the Williams Accumulation/Distribution Indicator, COT indices, cycle forecasts, market sentiment and value measures. In this episode we'll be discussing algorithmic forecasting, the methods and applications of forecasting, cycles and seasonality, plus some forecasts for the markets in 2016. In this episode we discuss Why algorithmic forecasting can be so interesting and so challenging Is forecasting just an academic exercise or can it actually be applied to real trading? The difference between Larrys forecasts and others made in the media How past cycles can project what may happen in the future How Larry actually generates forecasts based on past market behaviour Factors that can make forecasts inaccurate and why some factors aren't even considered when forecasting How the forecasting process has changed over the years Forecasts for the Australian and US markets in 2016 Which factors have the best forecasting ability

We've been very lucky to have a number of trading champions on the podcast before and this episode we get to talk to another champion trader, Michael Cook, who won the World Cup Trading championships in 2007 (Futures), 2011 (Stocks) and 2014 (Futures). Michael worked in the institutional world for a number of years before leaving behind the banks and hedge funds to trade for himself. In this episode we'll be discussing how to increase returns with the same risk, using the market to determine stop levels, selecting a position sizing algorithm and the role of discretion in systematic trading. In this episode we discuss How a short statement from Larry Williams influenced Michael to enter the World Cup Trading championship and what we can all learn from it How Michael won the trading championship multiple times and the unexpected benefit of winning A method to increasing returns for a given risk Why market related stops make more sense that a fixed cash amount Position sizing algorithms and why fixed fractional is often the best approach How to recognise conditions that could cause a strategy to fail before it actually does Hard and soft stops, and how to consider the risk of each The role of discretion in systematic trading Occasions where it make sense to override trading strategies - being more trader than system purist Where to find trading ideas  

Happy New Year! The start of a new year is typically the time when people review their accomplishments and progress for the past year, and make fresh plans for the year to come. I thought it might be good to do a quick bonus episode with someone who knows all about setting goals and achieving them. That person is World Cup trading champion Kevin Davey, who was a guest of the show on Episode 5. Now this is a bonus episode so it’s a really short one but it’s full of great information, including the importance of goals in trading, common mistakes traders make when setting goals and the process to creating good goals. Whether you're an accomplished goal setter or just starting out I think you'll find value in what Kevin has to share with us today so I hope you enjoy this short chat on goals in trading. In this episode we discuss Why it’s important to have goals in trading The impacts of not having goals can have on trading success The types of goals appropriate to traders Common mistakes traders make when setting goals An easy way to create good goals How to determine if your performance goals are attainable Why some traders get hung up on goals that aren't relevant Why you need a time limit on your goals

In this episode we’re discussing the results of a quantitative study on stop losses completed by Cesar Alvarez of Alvarez Quant Trading. Cesar was also a guest of the show way back in Episode 3. Cesar was director of research for Connors Research for almost 9 years, developing quantitative trading models for individuals, prop traders and hedge funds. In this episode he’s going to share the results of a quantitative study on stop losses, also testing out some common pieces of trading advice to see if they're actually true. Stops can have such a huge impact on trading results so I'm sure traders of all levels will find this research invaluable.   We will be discussing backtesting results and some charts. We'll be explaining them for those who are listening along but if you’d also like to see the results while we discuss them, you can download a copy or even watch as a video in the show notes page at bettersystemtrader.com/37. I hope you enjoy Cesars discussion of ‘Stops - the Good, the Bad and the Ugly’. In this episode we discuss Different types of stops, their application and performance results Percentage vs Volatility based stops Intraday vs End of Day stops Trailing stops vs Targets Some common trading statements that are often assumed to be true and the results of testing them - do they hold up? The levels of Stop knowledge, which level are you at?

Creating robust trading strategies can be a difficult task, sometimes taking months or even years to generate something you find acceptable. Even then, once you start trading it live there is no guarantee it’ll work in the future. With strategy creation being such an involved process at times, how would you like it if you could just tell the computer the results you wanted and let it figure out the trading rules? Is it actually possible to create robust trading strategies that way? In this episode Michael Bryant from Adaptrade talks to us about automatic code generation, methods to exploit trade dependency and techniques to trade the equity curve. Michael has been trading the markets since 1994, providing trading systems for the futures markets and even managing money as a CTA. He is founder of Adaptrade, a company which provides innovative software tools for individual and professional traders. In this episode we discuss The traditional approach to creating trading systems and issues caused by this approach Potential areas of improvement in traditional approaches to system development Evolution of the strategy creation process Genetic programming and optimisation and it’s use in trading strategy creation The advantages of automatic code generation Measuring and reducing over-fitting when using genetic optimisation techniques Addressing concerns with removing human logic from the strategy development process Degrees of freedom and the impact if can have on strategy results Trade dependency, how to detect it and methods to exploit it Trading the equity curve based on trade dependency and trading style Which stage of the strategy creation process to include position sizing Common position sizing mistakes traders make

Andrew Gibbs has been involved in the financial markets since 2001 and is the founder and CEO of Halifax New Zealand. Andrew has extensive experience in all forms of equity and derivative contracts, managing millions of dollars and trading a number of markets around the world. In this episode we discuss volatility and methods to trading the VIX plus the benefits and methods of including fundamental data in technical quant models. Topics discussed Instruments you can use to trade volatility and the benefits or disadvantages of each What makes the VIX attractive to trade and why it often trends over time The types of trading styles that suit the VIX The dangers of trading volatility products Seasonality in the VIX How to get started building volatility trading models Fundamental data and the types of fundamental datasets that work well in quantitative models Why some fundamentals work better than others The frequency of fundamental data release and how that dictates trading model style How to account for revisions to data The impact of including fundamental data can have on trading results Technical vs Fundamental data and which tends to be more robust Issues with fundamental data and company reporting accuracy How to reduce the chances of investing in a company that is likely to go bust Combining fundamentals and technical data and how to test How to get started building fundamental quant models

Jay Kaeppel has over 25 years experience in the financial markets. He has worked as the Head Trader for a CTA and published a number of popular trading books on Futures, Options and Stock Market Seasonality. He also spent a number of years writing a weekly column titled “Kaeppel’s Corner” and publishes on his blog “Jay On The Markets”. He is now Portfolio Manager for Alpha Investment Management, offering strategies such as the ‘Alpha Multi-Income Strategy’ to investors. In this episode we discuss a number of seasonal tendencies, how they can be integrated into a trading model, the applications of the Known Trend Index and the reasons why most traders fail. Topics discussed The Santa Claus rally - what it is and how to trade it How to use seasonality to complement other models Seasonality tendencies around holidays Monthly seasonal tendencies and a simple monthly seasonal system that vastly outperforms stock index returns Boiling down the trading process into 4 simple words Using leveraged ETFs for seasonality trades The worst performing month of the year (it’s not October) Converting seasonal tendencies into a trading model A simple seasonal sector system that takes only 6 trades per year Diversification vs Specialisation and the impact it can have on trading and drawdowns Are seasonal trading strategies just data mining? The Known Trends Index (KTI) and how it can be used in trading Why most traders fail

Laurent Bernut was a systematic short seller with Fidelity for 8 years. His mandate was to underperform the longest bear market in modern history: Japanese equities. Prior to that, he worked in the Hedge Fund world for 5 years. He now runs an automated Forex strategy and travels the world with his family. In this episode we talk all about Short selling, creating shorting strategies, the challenges of implementation and how to manage risk. We also discuss the importance of exits, insights into Bear markets, autotrading Forex and why complexity is a form of laziness. Topics discussed The benefits of developing a strategy on the short side first and why long/short symmetry is important Challenges with executing short systems and solutions The most important aspect to worry about when short selling Finding short candidates in a Bull market and why you should ignore absolute performance Tips to creating profitable short strategies The importance of exits and how to test them Insights into Bear markets The 3 wrong questions to ask during a Bear market and the 3 best ones to ask A simple method to identifying Bull and Bear markets Why complexity is a form of laziness Using MT4 as a professional trading platform Why being disciplined is a myth The type of strategies that work in the Forex markets The Common sense Ratio and why it’s more robust than the Sharpe ratio

Thomas Stridsman has over 20 years experience in the financial markets. He was an editor for Futures magazine and published two books on trading system development and money management. He is now a fund manager at Alfakraft, specialising in short-term trend following strategies with a focus on dynamic size allocation and risk distribution algorithms. In this episode we discuss strategy testing, why you need to normalise metrics, tips to creating robust strategies and why he doesn't test entries and exits any more (and what to focus on instead). Topics discussed The differences between short term trend following and long term trend following Why backtesting metrics should be normalised to give an accurate picture of performance Why you should look to restrict the number of consecutive winners and losers The difference between a good model and a profitable one Tips to creating robust systems Trading costs and when to include them in testing Using standard deviation to determine system robustness How his systems development approach has changed over the years The one particular insight that propelled his trading forward Applying Optimalf to position sizing The future of trading

Greg Morris was Sr. Vice President, Chief Technical Analyst, and Chairman of the Investment Committee for Stadion Money Management, overseeing the management of over $5.5 billion in assets.  He has been featured in the media a number of times, being invited to lecture about technical market analysis around the world. He is currently semi-retired, serving as a consultant and working on a few projects, including golf. In this episode we talk about the real definition of risk and how to manage it, the applications of market breadth and how the 'Weight of the evidence' concept can be used in trading. Topics discussed Why defining risk as volatility isn't accurate and what risk really is Can diversification actually be used to minimise risk? Why Rebalancing doesn't make sense The ‘Weight of the evidence’ concept and how it can be used in trading Why it’s important to test indicators over non-standard ranges What market breadth measures can reveal in market tops Different types of breadth and their applications in Trend Following Selecting indicators and why diversification of indicators is vital How often should you tweak your model if something isn't working so well The current state of the market  

A couple of weeks ago I went back through all the guests we've had on the show so far and realised how very fortunate we've been to have so many fantastic guests on the show, sharing their knowledge and experience, some of them with more than 50 years of trading experience! To be honest, I’d actually forgotten some of the topics we’d covered so far and going back through them was an excellent reminder of all the valuable information the guests had shared, so for Episode 30 I thought it might be a good idea to revisit some of the highlights from the earlier episodes so that those that haven’t heard them will go and listen to them, and those who have already listened may get some value out of hearing the highlights again. I know when I went back through them it reminded me of some things that I wanted to test or investigate further, and I really found it a valuable exercise so I hope you do too. This episode will cover some of the highlights from episodes 1 to 20; some of my favourites and some of yours. Topics discussed How to find new trading ideas every day Using optimisation to understand market behaviour, not to find the optimal parameters How the level of market noise can indicate the type of strategy to trade Tips to creating robust models Avoiding over-optimised trading strategies Combining multiple conditions or strategies into an ensemble system Why simple systems are better than complex ones How market timing can improve strategy performance The concept of conditional trading and why you need to consider market context Testing the effectiveness of entry and exit rules The type of strategies that should have stops and when stops don't make sense Factors to consider when choosing a position sizing strategy How dual momentum can produce profits and protect in a downturn Trading the equity curve to protect capital Why traders should focus on process and not outcome

Alan Clement is a Certified Financial Technician, full time independent trader, quantitative trading systems designer and private investment consultant. He is also a councillor with the Australian Technical Analysts Association and contributes to the technical analysis articles for Fairfax press. In this episode we talk about Rotational trading systems, the impact of stops on results and alternatives to managing risk. Alan also shares some interesting tips into measuring system health, dynamic position sizing and anticipating trading signals. Topics discussed Rotational trading - entries, exits and managing risk Methods to measure momentum in trend following strategies The impact of stop losses in trading systems and alternatives to managing risk Tips to position sizing without a stop loss Using dynamic profit targets to reduce risk and increase return Why drawdown is not a single number Using Monte Carlo analysis as a dynamic position sizing tool Methods to determining current system health Factors to consider when creating a system health metric Choosing the right Backtesting metrics and using them in live trading Five factors to consider when choosing a strategy to suit your personality Anticipating trading signals, the benefits, challenges and solutions How to anticipate trading signals without reverse-engineering indicators

David Aronson is a pioneer in machine learning and nonlinear trading system development and signal boosting/filtering. He is author of “Evidence Based Technical Analysis” and his most recent book "Statistically Sound Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading of Financial Instruments" is an in-depth look at developing predictive-model-based trading systems. He was also an adjunct professor of finance, regularly teaching MBA and financial engineering students a graduate-level course in technical analysis, data mining and predictive analytics. In this episode David shares research into the effectiveness of indicators to identify Bull and Bear markets; he’s tested a large number of indicators and combinations with some interesting results! We also discuss issues with data mining, conditions where traditional methods of measuring data mining levels can be problematic and then finish up with the future state of Technical Analysis. Topics discussed What the popular Golden and Death Cross can tell us about the probability of a Bull or Bear market Using the RSI indicator to determine market state Methods to reduce the lag the 50/200 Moving Average crossover experiences Using ADX and Price Variance to identify Bull and Bear markets Creating indicators based on the value of other indicators Modifying the McClelland Summation Index indicator to identify market states How datamining increases the chance of good luck in the results Why the White's Reality Check and Monte Carlo Permutation methods breakdown using certain data-mining approaches How the role of Technical Analysis could change over the next 10 years New developments in Machine Learning which may see the end of the role of technicians

Dr. Gary Dayton has been an active trader since 1999 and is President of a consulting firm that specializes in developing “peak” performance in traders. His approach to trading psychology is very different to the traditional approaches used by other trading coaches, introducing traders to the practise of mindfulness to not only overcome fear and other unwanted trading emotions but to develop the concentration and focus needed to trade successfully. In this episode we discuss why traditional approaches to controlling emotions don't work, the role of emotions in trading and how mindfulness can improve trading performance. He also shares some tips on how to get started practising mindfulness, the benefits it can have outside of trading and how the approach of Mental Parking can increase focus. Topics discussed Comparisons of sports and trading performance Traditional approaches to handling emotions in trading and why they don't work Why it’s impossible to suppress your emotions Landing a plane in the Hudson River and what the Captains response teaches us about trading The role of emotions and how experienced traders actually leverage emotions in trading The concept of Mindfulness and the benefits to traders How to use Mindfulness when trading The evidence that Mindfulness can improve trading performance and how it impacts the brain How to get started practising Mindfulness How to use Mental Parking to increase focus and productivity How exercise can improve mental and trading performance

Robert Carver is an independent systematic trader who spent more than seven years working for one of the worlds largest systematic hedge funds. In this episode we discuss trading rules, what makes a good trading rule and the advantages of using continuous rather than binary rules. He also shares insights into over-fitting and the challenges of walk-forward testing that can make it impractical. Topics discussed What makes a good trading rule The advantages of simple rules Why only some trading rules are profitable Walk-forward testing and some of the challenges that can make it impractical How much data you actually need to determine if a trading rule is better than another Why choosing the optimal values during a walk-forward test is not the best approach and some alternatives Weighting trading rules Steps to avoid over-fitting Should trading rules be adjusted for individual instruments? Continuous trading rules compared to binary rules The applications and advantages of continuous trading rules What makes a good systematic trader The issues that overconfidence creates in trading Two aspects of institutional trading that most retail traders could apply to their own trading

Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is a trader, psychologist and trading coach who has been actively involved in the financial markets since the late 1970s. He is the author of a number of popular trading performance books and consults for hedge funds, investment banks and proprietary trading groups. Brett has an interest in using historical patterns in markets to find a trading edge publishing measures and strategies on his popular TraderFeed blog. He is also a regular contributor to Forbes. In this episode we discuss creativity, static thinking and why it's important to have unique ideas for trading success. We also cover tips to increasing our creativity, why traditional trading rules need to be updated, the challenges of daytrading and how to overcome them. Topics discussed Three important components of successful traders Why the traditional rules of trading need to be updated Why traders get stuck in static thinking and need to be more like entreprenuers The two different types of trading brains and how understand which we are can improve our results How creativity can be used in the strategy research process Why we come up with ideas at seemingly random times and how that can be harnessed to improve our trading The two stages of creativity and how traders are hurting their performance by neglecting the second stage How just immersing ourselves in the market without stepping back can be harming our performance Improving creativity through lifestyle Why unstructured free time away from the markets can improve your trading Techniques to turn creativity into a habit How Brett identified his strengths and used those to dictate his trading style The challenges of daytrading and how to approach them Analysing successful trades to improve performance Why we need to have something more important in your life than trading PLUS listener questions on: Applications of diffusion indices Formalising edges and the impact of market regimes on edge performance How traders can follow their rules about stops and targets The psychological differences between systematic and discretionary trading The validity of Acceptance Commitment Therapy (ACT) in trading Handling drawdowns and turning it into a constructive experience How to move from retail trader to full-time/pro

In this episode Dr Van Tharp talks about beliefs and their impact on trading, the qualities of successful traders, adapting trading to market types, position sizing, trading mistakes and overcoming fear, perfectionism and impatience. Topics discussed How Van got started in the markets and the issues he faced initially The main reasons the majority of trades are unsuccessful How traders can identify the type of strategies that suits them What it means to trade your beliefs in the market How to assess whether your beliefs are useful or limiting The real importance of psychology in trading Your collection of parts and how they interact The process of transformation in a trader Qualities of losing traders and how to test yourself for them The impact mistakes could be having on your results without even knowing How to cope with larger trade sizes as your account grows PLUS listener questions on: Using position sizing to meet your objectives The 6 market types, how to measure them and how to apply it to your trading How to find positive expectancy systems Developing patience when in a trade Trading in short timeframes How to address issues with perfectionism Systematic vs Discretionary trading Overcoming fear of pulling the trigger Handling drawdowns

Michael Himmel is a Founding Partner, Portfolio Manager and Director of AI Research for Essex Asset Management. He has been actively trading and designing systems since the 1980s, managing the No.1 Global Macro Hedge fund in the world in 1999. He now uses large doses of AI and Machine Learning in his current practice. In this week’s episode we discuss Artificial Intelligence, the challenges and applications of AI in trading, criticisms of Machine Learning, event studies and the importance of selecting datasets. He also shares insights from starting out as a runner for some of the biggest players in the 1980s, to managing the no. 1 global macro hedge fund in 1999 to using AI in his practise today. Even if you’re not into AI and machine learning, the stories and insights Michael shares are invaluable. Topics discussed Lessons from running orders for some of the big players in the 1980s Transitioning from discretionary to systematic trading The challenges of applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning in the 1990s How changes in technology have made AI in trading available to almost every body How Hedge Fund Lambeth Capital achieved a 260% return in 1999 The impact September 2001 events had on hedge fund operations The applications of AI in non-finance industries The three divisions of AI The relationship between machine learning and AI Trading applications of AI How to decide which datasets should be used to avoid data mining Addressing the criticisms of machine learning The challenges of using AI for longer timeframes and is it the right tool for the job? Event studies in trading The future of trading

Robert Bubalovski is the Managing Director and Head Trader at TradeView investments, a privately held proprietary trading firm located in Melbourne, Australia. Since 1996 Robert has been actively involved in the financial markets and trading, in 2012 he decided to set up his own Proprietary Trading Firm to concentrate on his own trading strategies. His team of professional proprietary traders specialize in the trading of Equities, Futures, Options, FX and Money Markets across multiple exchanges around the globe and around the clock. In this weeks episode we discuss prop trading, the challenges and lessons from beginner trader to starting an investment firm and what it takes to be a successful trader. We also discuss arbitrage and pairs trading strategies, statistical rather than indicator-based trading and the importance of simplicity. Topics discussed The pros and cons of prop trading The progress of a prop trader How long it takes to become a successful prop trader The attributes of successful traders Advice for those wanted to get started in prop trading Challenges starting out and the lessons learnt Arbitrage and Pairs trading Index arbitrage Selecting stock pairs for arbitrage opportunities Getting started in pairs trading/arbitrage The benefits of pair trading indices vs stocks The dangers of pairs trading in stocks Why keeping strategies simple is so important The main attributes a trader needs to be successful How to increase trade size and be comfortable with it The advantages of strategies based on statistics rather than indicators

Tim Rea is a proprietary trader, trading his own money with well over 100 automated systems across 25 different Futures contracts. He is a past winner of the World Cup trading championship, along with being a CTA and broker but gave that away to focus on trading his own money. In this weeks episode we discuss various aspects of trading multiple strategies, including monitoring performance, money management, correlation, technology and trading in markets not in your timezone. We also discuss the impacts of the MFGlobal and PFG collapses and how Tim overcame the heavy losses to continue trading. Topics discussed How poor experiences investing with others drove Tim to figure it out for himself Becoming a systems vendor, CTA and broker and why he then left it all behind to just trade his own money How shorter term trading can increase confidence in a system How many strategies he’s currently trading (hint: its more than 100!) Keeping track of the performance of multiple strategies Why you shouldn't just stop trading a system when the drawdown is larger than it has been historically Why you should try to understand the underlying reasons for strategy drawdown Considerations when adding more strategies to a portfolio Managing correlations with multiple strategies Position sizing when trading multiple systems The benefits of trading a portfolio vs trading an individual method How to manage trading in markets not in your timezone The impact of the PFG collapse and how Tim overcame the heavy losses Lessons learnt from dealing with MFGlobal and PFG collapses How to manage your trading account to minimise risk of loss in another collapse The benefits of trading Forex How Tim won the World Cup Trading championship trading just the EURUSD The importance of vision in your trading business

In this weeks episode Larry Williams talks about conditional trading, understanding what drives prices, the misuse of indicators and how to apply them correctly. We also discuss cycles, forecasting markets, what to look for in market tops plus loads of listener questions where Larry shares tips and insights from 50 years of trading. Topics discussed What it means to be a conditional trader Why buy and sell signals need to be analysed in the context of market conditions Fundamental factors that drives markets Interpreting the COT reports correctly The buying differences between retail and commercial traders and how it can indicate future market direction Why you should approach trading like a combination lock Coming up with unique indicator ideas The mis-use of indicators and how to use them correctly Trading styles of successful traders Forecasting markets based on technical factors Characteristics of stock market tops and bottoms The fundamentals to watch during market tops Listener questions Issues with the Forex market Trading prices patterns, do they still work and are they scalable Why short term price patterns work What happened in 2002 and why you need to consider that when backtesting Will trend trading always be effective? How many positions to trade at one time Money management tips for those who aren't into heavy maths Choosing the best markets to trade Favourite Larry Williams indicator What keeps Larry motivated to trade after 50 years What drives peak performance (it’s not money…) The key component that really drove Larry to becoming a consistently successful trader How Larry lasted so long in the industry How to overcome emotions when entering or holding trades Larry’s biggest contribution to the trading industry Why Larrys strategies have lasted the test of time Common traits against the most successful traders The trading model that’s worked for Larry for over 50 years

Scott Andrews 'The Gap Guy' shares his expertise in gaps, why they work, what factors to take into account when trading gaps and what to avoid. We also discuss gap zones, when to fade and when to follow and calculating stops and targets. PLUS, for those that aren't into Gap trading, we cover some important concepts that can impact all styles of trading, include one concept called 'Ensemble Systems' which may just change the way you look at trading strategies. Topics discussed Why it’s important to trade a style that matches your own strengths rather than follow someone else Why gap trading works Markets where gaps work best and those that don't The best type of stocks to trades gaps and the stocks to avoid The benefits of trading gaps in indices vs stocks The 3 market conditions to look at when analysing a gap How seasonality impacts gap trading Signs of gaps to avoid Using ATR to determine the probability of gap size closing Gap zones and how the location of the gap can provide useful information The worst performing gap zone The psychology of certain gap zones and why some work better than others When to fade the gap and when to follow it Calculating stop and profit levels based on gap characteristics and market conditions How to determine if a target should be a full gap close, partial gap close or an extended target past gap close The impact of QE on gaps How to combine systems into Ensemble Systems for an interesting view on trading strategies  

Jerry Parker, Turtle Trader and CTA, talks about trend following, how to approach wins and losses, dealing with drawdowns, managing correlations in asset classes and how changing market dynamics have impacted trend following and the solution. He also gives us some tips on systematic trading including how he trades without relying on optimal values of the past. Topics discussed What types of characteristics Dennis and Eckardt were looking for in the Turtle traders program How the Turtles were taught to approach losses Common traits amongst the most successful Turtles The hardest part of trading as a Turtle How Jerry overcame the fear of taking trades The biggest lesson being a Turtle What Jerry did with the Turtles approach after the program ended The impact managing other peoples money can have on trading The key factors that make trend following work Managing correlations between asset classes Long-term vs short-term trend following Dealing with drawdowns How changes market dynamics have impacted trend following and solutions How to diversify to lessen the impact of any one parameter How to trade without relying on optimal values of the past PLUS questions submitted by listeners: The difficulties in knowing when to adjust strategy parameters Adjusting your system for whipsaws Tips to avoid data mining Do the Turtles systems still work in the todays markets? Are there any markets where the strategies no longer work? Short versus Long trades Overcoming emotions in trading Biggest mistakes and the lessons learnt What todays Turtle program would look like

World Cup Trading champion Andrea Unger discusses how to create robust strategies, the role of indicators in trading, principles to strategy creation, Forex trading strategies and optimising to understand market behaviour. Topics discussed The strategies and position sizing Andrea used to win the world cup trading championship 4 times The role of luck in trading Controlling risk when trading multiple strategies Where to find trading ideas The principles Andrea uses in the Forex and Futures markets to develop profitable strategies The role of indicators in strategy development Matching strategy type to market characteristics Why you should analyse your biggest winners as well as your biggest losers Forex trading tips and changes in the Forex market Using longer timeframes to filter trades in shorter timeframes When to optimise or tweak a strategy and how to ensure you don’t over-optimise The drawbacks of trend following and the solution Tips to handling drawdowns Intraday vs End-of-day trading The key to trading success.

Stuart McPhee discusses the common mistakes traders make, the single biggest factor to trading success, the counter-intuitive side to trading and tips to improving trading discipline. Topics discussed Why trading can be simple but not easy Common mistakes traders make Factors to consider when choosing a trading strategy that suits you Common Money Management mistakes The single biggest factor to trading success Common mindset issues traders experience Tips to improving discipline and changing trading behaviour How the Petronas towers can be applied to trading The counter-intuitive side to trading The Chinese Bamboo story

Performance coach Rande Howell discusses the most common issues limiting trader performance, the impact of emotions on trading, the importance of managing process not outcome and tips on changing our physiology to improve performance. Topics discussed The most common issues impacting trader performance What causes hesitation when taking trades How to calm the emotions when trading An easy way to monitor changes in emotions The impact of breathing on emotions and trading A simple trick to disrupt fear Patience and boredom in trading and how to overcome them Are you an African Lion or an American Cougar when trading? Personal traits that don’t align well with trading success How successful traders handle drawdowns The stage in a traders journey where performance coaching provides the most value What successful traders need to watch out for to continue operating at their peak How overconfidence and euphoria can destroy your trading Tips for getting prepared for the trading session

Andreas Clenow is a hedge fund manager who specialises in developing and trading quantitative strategies across all asset classes. Before joining the hedge fund world by establishing his own hedge fund he maintained Global Head positions at Reuters and Equis International. He is the author of two books, the first being international best seller ‘Following the Trend’ and the second ‘Stocks on the Move’ has just been released. In this episode Andreas talks about trend following in stocks, why traditional approaches don't work and what you can do to account for this. We also talk about trading concepts, cash vs risk allocation, position rebalancing and building robust strategies. Topics discussed The origins of trend following and why a traditional trend following approach doesn't work on stocks Why it’s a bad idea to think in terms of cash allocation and the solution Position rebalancing, why, how and when How hedge funds look at position sizing compared to retail traders Why pyramiding positions doesn't make sense How to get a more realistic understanding of performance results than just a backtest report can provide How a random number generator can beat the mutual funds How to ensure you strategies are robust and not curve-fit Handling large losses or periods of drawdown The role of critical thinking in trading

Dr Ernest Chan talks about many aspects of quantitative trading, including how market crises impact momentum strategies and how to manage the impacts, when to use stop-losses and when they don't make sense, automating trading, managing funds in a portfolio of strategies and a simple money management approach which aims to limit drawdowns while maximising returns. Topics discussed Where to find trading ideas The first aspect of a market to identify before building a strategy for it Momentum crashes and the performance of momentum strategies after a financial crisis How to manage the times when momentum strategies aren’t working When stop losses should be used and when they don’t make sense How to limit drawdowns while maximising growth Factors to consider when automating your trading How independent traders can avoid competing with the big trading firms When you need to worry about market microstructure and when it doesn’t matter Managing funds for a multi-strategy portfolio The hardest part of trading

Ralph Vince talks about position sizing, how to choose a position sizing model that suits you, optimalf, the curve and how it can be used for maximum growth and other applications. The risk of multiple strategies in a portfolio and how to manage it, dynamic position sizing, martingale strategies and how Ralphs views on money management has changed in the past 25 years. Topics discussed The single biggest factor in trading which is also probably the most overlooked The most important factor when determine position sizing How horizon impacts position sizing How Optimalf is only one point on the curve and other critical points you also need to consider Traversing the curve and how it applies to your trading criterion How to manage a portfolio of multiple strategies The risk of multiple strategies and how to manage it Trading the equity curve Dynamic position sizing When Martingale strategies make sense How Ralphs views on money-management have changed in the past 25 years

Perry Kaufman discusses market noise, the impact it has on trading styles and how it can be used to determine which strategies suit a particular market. We also talk about price shocks and how to mitigate their effects, how to use volatility in your favour, volatility parity for position sizing, the information ratio for strategy performance and some strategy ideas you can test yourself. Topics discussed How market noise impacts trend following and mean reversion The effects of money flow during a crisis The types of strategies that work best in new markets and why How the efficiency ratio can be used to determine the best type of strategy for a market The best markets for trend following and mean reversion What strategy style to choose if you're just starting out Using Volatility Parity for position sizing Impacts and dangers of price shocks on backtesting and how to handle them Mitigating the risk of price shocks Using the Information Ratio to measure strategy performance and detect possible over-fitting The effects of volatility on strategies and how to use volatility in your favour Fractal Geometry High Frequency Trading And some strategy ideas you can test

Gary Antonacci discuss all things momentum; the different types of momentum and their individual applications, how they can be combined, how momentum can be refined, the benefits and challenges of momentum, why momentum works and much more. Topics discussed The different types of momentum and their use How to combine them for better performance How Dual Momentum protects in a bear market The benefits of Dual Momentum The impact of lookback periods and rebalancing Using Dual Momentum with other asset classes Reducing the impact of mean reversion in stocks Why momentum works and is likely to continue working in the future

Gary Stone discusses market timing, why it works, the impact it can have on strategy performance and simple methods you can test for yourself. We also discuss the misinformation published by some fund managers and how you can outperform the majority of professional fund managers using very simple techniques. Gary also explains the importance of perspective and how it can improve your trading and we get some tips on one of the most important components to executing your trading plan correctly.

Rob Hanna tells us how he comes up with so many trading ideas, the type of market behaviours to look out for and his favourite piece of information in a backtest report (clue: it’s not a number). He also discusses how a confluence of ideas can improve trading results, how to look at market behaviour from different angles, some simple market timing techniques, adjusting strategies based on market conditions plus loads of ideas we can test ourselves. Topics discussed Where to find trading ideas The types of market behaviour to look for and what to ignore The most important piece of information in a backtest – it’s not a number! How to handle an edge that is performing poorly How a confluence of ideas can improve trading results Looking at market behaviour from different angles Simple market timing techniques Where to find the biggest edges Adjusting strategies based on market conditions How Fed meeting days impact the market and how it can be traded PLUS loads of ideas to test!

In our chat with Dr Howard Bandy we talk about major changes occurring in the fields of trading system development, trade management and technical analysis. We also discuss why trading is becoming increasingly difficult, what causes trading systems to experience periods of poor performance, how to identify and manage a trading system when it is out of sync with the market and the 2 most important skills in system development. Topics discussed The major changes occurring in the fields of trading system development, trade management and technical analysis Why trading is becoming increasingly hard How to compete with the professionals What causes trading systems to experience periods of poor performance How to identify and manage a trading system when it is out of sync with the market The shift towards machine learning and pattern recognition The importance of data mining in the system development process The 2 most important skills in system development

Kevin Davey talks about how we went about winning the trading competition, the type of systems you want for the future, some very important aspects of system development that will cost you money if you ignore them, what you need to do before you start trading a strategy and what skills you need to be a good system developer. He offers some really valuable insights and provides an excellent process to system development so you do not want to miss it. Topics discussed:   Why goals and objectives are so important in trading How to use "the monkey test" to validate entries and exits Which type of systems adapt better to future conditions Why walk forward testing is so important and when you shouldn't use it How often should you re-optimise your systems Why ignoring Monte Carlo testing can cost you money Why you shouldn't start trading a strategy immediately after you've finished testing it How to eliminate bad systems before risking your money on them Adding or removing systems from your portfolio Why you need to determine when you will stop trading a system BEFORE you start trading it What skills are required to be a good system developer

In our chat with Nick we discuss system design, the best type of systems to trade, how observations can lead to better strategies, the best way to handle a bear market, measuring system performance, survivorship bias and the difference between successful traders and everyone else. Topics discussed: The trading style most people should try first Systematic ways to determine a trend Why simple systems are the best Why broker consensus is a poor indicator The best type of stocks for trend following strategies What you need to know about a system to be able to handle the drawdown How observations can lead to better strategies Why buy and hold offers average returns and the best approach to handling a bear market How trading can take less than 5 minutes per day Measuring the performance of a system The difference between very successful traders and everyone else The types of survivorship bias that could be ruining your backtest results The warning signs of over-optimisation Coping with drawdown and personal doubts 2 basic strategies you can start testing today!

In our chat with Cesar Alvarez we talk about trading ideas, key concepts and pitfalls of backtesting, the impact of stops on returns, market timing, over-optimisation, drawdown and using multiple strategies in a portfolio. Topics discussed: Where to find trading ideas Why you should test all of your ideas, even if you think they won't work Pitfalls of backtesting you need to look out for How to identify coding errors in backtesting Some clues that indicate you may have over-optimised a strategy Issues with splitting data into in-sample and out-of-sample portions The impact of stops on returns Handling a 50% overnight drop in a stock price Finding your personal drawdown tolerance How market timing can impact a strategy Why you need multiple strategies in a portfolio

In this episode with Brent Penfold we cover fundamental topics that impacts traders of all levels, from beginner to advanced. We talk about some of the psychological issues traders face, the principles all traders need to accept to be successful, that elusive Holy Grail of trading and an extremely important mathematical concept that can identify if you’re going to blow up your account, so don’t miss that. The guest also provides actionable tips and tricks to overcome these issues along with a simple method to determine if a strategy is broken, which could save you lots of money and stress. Topics discussed: How to trades 24 markets actively and be finished by 9:30am The simple reason why most traders fail The principles all traders need to accept to be successful The one mathematical measure that can tell if you'll blow up your account - don't miss this! The Holy Grail The most important aspect of trading How to remove hope from your trading How to combat greed The impact fear can have on your trading and a hot tip to overcome it A simple method to determine if your strategy is broken, this tip could save you loads of money!

Welcome to Better System Trader, the podcast where expert traders share tips, tricks and actionable insights to improve trading results. In this episode I introduce Better System Trader, what its all about, what to expect, and a little background on myself.