Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the attempted insurrection by Wagner forces in Russia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!Over the weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian private security company known as the Wagner Group, spearheaded an insurrection in Russia. In response to Kremlin moves to bring Wagner under the Russian army’s command and, according to him, attacks on a Wagner base by the Russian military, the group seized the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the main staging ground for Russia’s Ukraine war. Wagner forces then advanced to within 200km of Moscow before Prigozhin backed down and agreed to leave for Belarus and demobilise his forces involved in the uprising. Wagner’s future, particularly in areas of Africa and the Middle East in which it operates, is uncertain. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks first with Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker about what drove Prigozhin’s rebellion and what it means for the Kremlin and its war in Ukraine. Richard then talks to Sahel Director Jean-Hervé Jezequel and UN Director Richard Gowan about how the uprising might affect Wagner’s operations in Africa, particularly in Mali. They look at how the Malian transitional authorities’ ties to Moscow and Wagner have influenced Bamako’s foreign relations and their recent demand that the Security Council pull out UN peacekeepers from Mali. They also examine what the withdrawal of the mission might mean for the fight against jihadists in Mali and a peace process in the country’s north that is already under strain. For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Russia and Africa pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian war in Ukraine, from Crisis Group's podcast The Horn -- featuring War & Peace's new host, Elissa Jobson. Africa’s response to the Ukraine crisis has been far from united. Emerging rifts were on stark display during the historic UN General Assembly session in early March: only around half of African states supported the resolution’s denunciation of Russian aggression. Where some countries robustly condemned the invasion as a flagrant violation of crucial norms, others were more hesitant, often highlighting the West’s inconsistent commitment to those very principles.This week on The Horn, guest host Elissa Jobson talks with Philani Mthembu, executive director at the South Africa-based Institute for Global Dialogue, to make sense of these disparate responses to the Ukraine war. They discuss the division at the UN, perceptions of both the conflict and Russia across the continent more broadly, and how the historical legacies of colonialism and liberation struggles inform views on contemporary geopolitics. They talk about perceived Western double standards, and about how both the racist treatment of African and Asian refugees and media coverage of the conflict reinforce these narratives. They also sketch out the war’s economic and diplomatic implications and ask how Africa can forge a united continental position to better shield itself from the fallout.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, visit our Ukraine regional page, and make sure to read our recent commentary: “The Ukraine War: A Global Crisis?”, for perspectives from around the world. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian war in Ukraine, from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire! On Thursday 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the launch of, in his words, a “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russian airstrikes on military and other infrastructure near Ukrainian cities were followed by massive troop advances from the north, east and south. Despite fierce Ukrainian resistance, Russian forces have reached the capital Kyiv, where fighting rages on the city’s streets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on all Ukrainians to arm themselves to defend their homeland. Notwithstanding months of warnings, as perhaps as many as 200,000 Russian troops have massed at the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin’s invasion has left Europe, and indeed much of the world, in shock. It seems inevitable that it will exact a terrible human toll. This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and guest host, Crisis Group’s president & CEO Comfort Ero are joined by Olga Oliker, our Europe & Central Asia director and War & Peace co-host, to discuss Russia’s aggression. They look at what’s happening on the ground, what the next few days could bring and what happens if the Zelenskyy government falls and the Russians try to install a pliant regime in Kyiv. They talk about the mood in Moscow and reactions to Russia’s invasion from around the world, including in China. They also talk through the Western response – the extent and impact of sanctions, what a NATO build-up would entail and whether Western powers should back Ukrainian resistance and what that might involve. They discuss the impact of Russia’s invasion on wider global affairs.  For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, visit our Ukraine regional page, and make sure to read our recent statement ‘ War in Europe: Responding to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine’. Comfort and Richard also discuss the Ukraine crisis in their piece, ‘10 Conflicts To Watch in 2022’. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border, from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!.Olga Oliker, our War & Peace host and Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia director, and Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst, join Hold Your Fire! host and Interim President Richard Atwood to discuss what led to the crisis. These include the move forward – for the second time this year – of 100,000 Russian troops, the breakdown of a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian security forces, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly testy statements about Ukraine’s relations with NATO member states. Ukrainian officials warn of a potential Russian invasion; Western leaders warn of severe consequences if that happens. Olga, Oleg and Richard look at what Putin may hope to gain with the army deployments, whether Moscow is really prepared to use force, what a military intervention might entail and how Ukraine and its Western partners might respond. They also look at what Western powers could do to deter an attack.For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine and Russia pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Crisis Group's podcast Hold Your Fire!,  Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s program director for Europe and Central Asia, Olga Oliker, about rising tensions between Russia, on one hand, and Ukraine and Western capitals on the other, over Moscow’s recent military build-up at the Ukrainian border. They talk about the motives behind Russia’s deployments, how they are being perceived in Kyiv, the situation in separatist-held parts of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, and why the peace process has stalled. Olga describes the broader standoff between Russia and the West, of which disagreements over Ukraine are an important – but far from the only – factor. They also look at how U.S. and European leaders should respond and what might help reverse the dangerous escalation in Donbas, with a view to returning to the 2020 ceasefire agreement and peace talks. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.