As another eventful week comes to a close, Brian Rose shares his take on the latest employment data, along with Wednesday’s Fed statement. We also discuss the overall state of the US economy and what to expect in the month’s ahead. Plus, preview what you can expect next week. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

With a new year underway, we discuss what investors will be focused on and how factors spanning global elections to potential shifts in monetary policy might impact the sustainable investing landscape. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Lucy Thomas, Head of Sustainable Investing at UBS Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist Americas.

Following this past weekend’s attacks in Jordan against US servicemembers, Shane discusses how and when the US will respond to Iran and what it all means for brewing tensions in the region. We also update on House GOP impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas, and bi-partisan Congressional legislative efforts aimed at tax breaks for businesses and children. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office, including Mark Haefele, Paul Donovan, Mark Andersen, and Nadia Lovell, as they share an economic and market outlook.

The violent swings in US equity pricing yesterday tell investors all they need to know about Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s communication skills. In the battle between extremists predicting a hard landing and the realists who see a soft economic landing, the Fed seems to tilt towards a soft landing. Rates have peaked, a March cut is (probably) not happening, but cuts are coming.

Fresh off of the latest FOMC policy meeting and press conference, the UBS Chief Investment Office shares reflections on the outcome, and how markets have been responding. Plus, an outlook for monetary policy is shared, along with considerations when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy. Fed Chair Powell (not an economist) is unlikely to apologize for past policy errors. The Fed chair might try to take undeserved credit for the rapid US inflation slowdown.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management

The Eurozone and assorted components release preliminary fourth quarter GDP guesses. A small drop in growth is expected, led by Germany. The German economy was poorly positioned for global consumers’ spending focus shifting from goods to having fun. Any drop will provoke media hysteria about the nonsensical term “technical recession”. Falling GDP is more probable when countries have falling populations, and in the real world no one differentiates –0.1% from 0.0% growth.

Investors can expect a lot to digest in the week ahead, spanning a Fed policy meeting, to numerous corporate earnings, all leading to the January Jobs report to cap off the week. Jason Draho outlines his expectations and what certain outcomes may mean for the markets and your portfolio. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today’s calendar is so quiet even ECB President Lagarde is not speaking (former US Treasury Secretary Summers might be speaking, but that is just background noise at this stage).

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

We recap the week that was, including an update on Q4 corporate earnings reporting, and a look at the drivers behind recent equity market momentum. We also discuss equity positioning and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

With the 2024 campaign trail in full swing, Shane reflects on the results of the New Hampshire primary and previews what the next few weeks have in store. We also update on border negotiations within Congress and ongoing tensions in the Red Sea. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s US GDP data showed stronger growth, although inventory numbers hint at some slowing ahead. Inflation continues to moderate. Can the Federal Reserve claim credit for this? It cannot. Central banks slow inflation by weakening credit and demand. This is not what has happened in the US. Inflation was always going to slow, and US economic performance seems to have happened in spite of the Fed, not because of it.

We continue with our series of muni market conversations by reviewing YTD asset class performance, as well as some portfolio themes. We also spend time on outlining the investment case for high quality water and sewer bonds. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas.

ECB President Lagarde speaks. This is not an especially rare occurrence. In one of last week’s multitude of speeches, Lagarde took time to brand economists a “tribal clique”. Today’s remarks come after the ECB decides on policy, so could generate a flicker of interest. ECB colleagues have periodically had to “clarify” some of the president’s remarks, but assuming that is not necessary this time vague signals of a summer easing seem likely.

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, rates, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, and Alina Golant, along with Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist, Sangeeta Marfatia.

Today’s calendar is plagued with business sentiment survey opinion, and little else. Surveys attract media attention because if you assume the survey does what it says it does, it can produce a more dramatic story. However, survey evidence has been a progressively less reliable description of reality across various measures. The UK government’s ONS says its labor force survey is unreliable—why would sentiment surveys of employment be more credible?

Our series of thematic investing conversations continues as we explore the top sustainability-linked investment ideas for 2024, outlined within the latest edition of Sustainable Investing Perspectives from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Bank of Japan continued its policy of masterful inactivity—leaving everything but its inflation forecasts unchanged (headline inflation forecasts were revised lower). Investors are focusing on policy meetings after the spring pay round as being the earliest chance of a policy change. The ECB bank lending survey is due, and relevant to future policy discussions there.

In this week’s episode, Jason Draho reviews the ‘key questions for 2024’ as outlined within the latest Monthly Letter from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Jason also discusses the latest allocation recommendations and messages in focus. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Initial trade data for January from South Korea suggests that there was a slowdown in export growth. The data should not be affected by rerouting ships away from the Red Sea (it is counting when goods leave Korea, not when they arrive at their destination). Global trade has to contend with consumers shifting demand from goods to services, the hype about artificial intelligence (and its associated technology), and simplifying supply chains.

Our conversation covers a range of timely topics, including takeaways from President Biden’s White House meeting with Congressional leadership, a status as to where government shutdown negotiations stand, and an update on Decision 2024 ahead of next week’s New Hampshire primary. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A timely conversation with insights into the current environment for fixed income investing, the road ahead for monetary policy, and considerations when it comes to allocation within the asset class. Featured are Gene Tannuzzo, Global Head of Fixed Income, Columbia Threadneedle Investments and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK retail sales volumes were weak in December. Consumer rebellion over profit-led inflation pushed consumers into buying earlier when discounts were on offer, and simply refusing to consume when prices were higher. Online retail also slowed, but fared a lot better than in person retail. Elsewhere German producer prices continued in deflation in December.

With 2024 underway, Richard Bernstein rejoins the podcast to share RBA’s economic and market outlook, as well as discusses investment views, monetary policy, and market risk factors with Jason Draho. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets seemed surprised that US December retail sales were stronger than expected. This is weird—some part of US retail sales data surprised positively every single month during 2023. Never go short the hedonism of the US consumer. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book suggested leisure travel also benefitted. However, unlike 2021/22 this spending is unlikely to be indifferent to prices— but instead to be a response to price discounting.

In this week’s Snapshot, Jason Draho answers five ‘bigger picture’ questions that may help to determine ‘what’s next’ for both the markets and the economy. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Retail sales dominate, and there seems no reason abandon the hedonism of the US consumer. Lower income US households are more constrained, but middle income homeowners are living in a world of around 2% inflation (except in Florida) and have more spending firepower. The narrative has shifted. In 2022, consumers were spending the President Trump’s profligate unemployment payments and were relatively price insensitive. Today consumers are responding to evidence of price discounting.

As we look ahead over the first half of 2024, Leslie Falconio outlines expectations for rates and fixed income returns. We also spend time reviewing the latest fixed income allocation recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A container ship has been struck by a missile in the Gulf of Aden, without sustaining serious damage. The economics of the threat to shipping remain muted. There are still ships sailing through the Red Sea. European gas prices are at the lowest level since last August, so concerns about energy prices should be limited. The additional nine days it takes to ship cargo around the Cape of Good Hope is unlikely to result in shortages, and shipping costs are a tiny part of the price consumers pay for goods.

The World Economic Forum gets underway in Davos, filling the media with policymakers’ comments. Policymaker comments are normally recycled statements that have already been made, but making such statements in close proximity to a) other policy makers and b) snow-covered mountains creates more dramatic television coverage and amplifies the noise.

With what promises to be an eventful 2024 now underway, Shane Lieberman updates us on a range of negotiations taking place within Congress as it relates to government funding, the US Southern border, and foreign aid packages. We also touch on the road to the White House by previewing Monday's Iowa caucuses and recapping President Biden's recent campaign appearances. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We recap the week that was, including a look at some notable developments in the digital assets space and what it all means for investors, along with a review of the December inflation data and how the Fed might be interpreting it. Plus, a preview of what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The Gulf region will be a focus in the aftermath of Western attacks on Houthi positions. Economically this does not change much in the short term. Shipping has diverted away from the Red Sea, and it seems unlikely that trade flows will adjust just because of one defensive measure. China’s trade data officially suggests some export growth, with toys and autos improving.

US December consumer price inflation is due. Are investors are focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy response, or economic realities? If the former, then headline numbers and Fed comments likely matter the most (the Powell Fed is more about spin than substance). If the latter, then the headlines matter less than the signals buried in the detail.

As a new year begins, Ainsely Carbone and Justin Waring join the podcast to outline what’s new in 2024 as it relates to Medicare and Social Security benefits. We also cover provisions taking effect as it relates to SECURE 2.0, as well as how one can manage taxes on retirement assets. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist Americas, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects offered gloomy forecasts for GDP growth in the coming five years. If we suspend disbelief and accept the forecasts as accurate, global living standards should do better than the World Bank forecasts imply. Swathes of the world economy have declining populations, meaning headline GDP does a poor job of reflecting living standards. Structural change increases efficiency, and those efficiency gains may go to improving impact economy standards (the environment, work-life balance, etc.) rather than the crude output metrics of GDP.

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team, this month featuring Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, and Tom Digenan, Head of Americas Investment Solutions Specialists.

Join us for a conversation with Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist with the UBS Chief Investment Office (CIO), and Melinda Hightower, Head of the UBS Multicultural Client Segment. Nadia discuses highlights from the UBS CIO Global Wealth Management’s Year Ahead 2024 publication and what investors should expect.

US November consumer credit jumped higher. Middle income consumers may borrow while still having savings to smooth consumption. Lower income consumers are more likely to borrow involuntarily (buying essentials on credit card, without having enough money to pay the bill at the end of the month). The increased dependence on credit supports consumer spending for now, but is a reminder that there are limits to spending—a soft economic landing is still an economic landing.

A lot has developed within the markets since the UBS Chief Investment Office published its 2024 outlook a couple of months ago - to kick-off the CIO Strategy Snapshot series for the new year, Jason Draho outlines the updates to the 2024 scenarios, along with positioning considerations and what to expect in the months ahead across the markets, the economy, and more. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the US, the official leaders of Congress have agreed to a spending limit. This reduces the risk of a government shutdown although no legislation has been passed and details still need to be agreed. The spending limit has been denounced by the hard right Freedom Caucus, which presents a challenge for House Speaker Johnson. When another Republican leaves the House on 21 January, the Republicans will hold 219 seats to the Democrats’ 213.

As we conclude the first trading week of 2024, Leslie Falconio reflects on the movement of treasury yields and the Fed’s December meeting minutes. We also discuss the prospects for rate cuts in the months ahead and expectations for fixed income total return in 2024. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Fresh off the release of the December Employment Report, Brian Rose offers his take on the data and outlook for the US Labor Market. We also recap some recent data-points and preview next week’s inflation readings. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

German, French, and Dutch December consumer price inflation was as expected, with a very subtle downside surprise. While energy base effects are raising headline inflation rates a little in Europe, the implication is that Eurozone flash consumer price data could surprise in a very unsurprising way by being marginally less than consensus.

The Federal Reserve minutes of the December FOMC meeting suggested rate cuts were self-congratulatory about the decline in US inflation (though this was only partly due to the Fed). They signaled rate cuts this year. They also signalled no rush to cut rates, and interestingly mentioned that activity may be stronger than reported. Economic indicators designed in the 1920s struggle to accurately measure modern ways of working in the 2020s.

The Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its December meeting—which is when Fed Chair Powell had a Damascene conversion to dovishness, and fueled a rally across asset classes. The Fed minutes were written and agreed after that, and the nuance may reflect other Fed members’ concerns with the dovish flip-flop.

The last month of 2023 was marked by equity and bond rallies. The economic outlook did not really change, but the language of Federal Reserve Chair Powell did. Because Powell’s past policy errors comprehensively trashed forward guidance, investors can choose which guidance they wish to follow. Other Fed members trying to dilute the reaction to Powell have been ignored.

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist.

Korean export data for early December strengthened. Exports to the US grew quickly (exports to Europe slowed), hinting at restructuring supply chains within Asia. This implies less economic impact from the attacks in the Red Sea, with fewer sailings from Asia to Europe. The Wall Street Journal reported the Biden administration is considering taxing US consumers of Chinese electric vehicles (adding to the Trump administration’s extensive consumer taxes).

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for munis and where opportunity can be found. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team, this month featuring Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, and Tom Digenan, Head of Americas Investment Solutions Specialists.

UK consumer price disinflation was more than expected. This is a global trend. As consumers rebel against profit-led inflation, retailers scramble to shore up customer loyalty by means of price discounts. UK inflation is probably still overstating reality, as price discounts under supermarkets’ two-tier pricing structures are not currently captured in the data.

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, rates, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, and Alina Golant, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

As the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference ‘COP28’ has come to a close, Glen and Amantia spend time reflecting on what this year’s conference delivered and what to expect in the months and years ahead in the way of progress. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Glen Yelton, Global Head of ESG at Invesco. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Bank of Japan, well known for its masterful inactivity on policy, was masterfully inactive on policy today. A change to yield curve control in the first quarter is possible if wage data supports such a move—it is wise never to get too excited about Bank of Japan action.

In our final episode of 2023, Jason outlines his prediction for the 2024 ‘financial word of the year’. We also reflect on the 2023 word prediction, ‘disinflation’, as well as recap the December FOMC meeting, and explain CIO’s rationale for an allocation to US small-cap equities. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell sparked an “everything” rally last week. This prompted the others on the FOMC to dampen the more extreme speculation. New York Fed President Williams (an economist, so deserving of considerable respect) suggested a March cut was not feasible. Markets have retreated in response.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell sparked an “everything” rally last week. This prompted the others on the FOMC to dampen the more extreme speculation. New York Fed President Williams (an economist, so deserving of considerable respect) suggested a March cut was not feasible. Markets have retreated in response.

As we make our way through the 2023 holiday shopping season, we take a pulse on the health of the US consumer and what the year ahead might have in store for consumer spend. We also highlight what consumers are spending on and what retailers are reporting. Featured is Sunny Mehra, Consumer Discretionary Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Clearing aside the meaningless noise of sentiment surveys, the data calendar offers insights into global supply and demand for goods.

As 2023 winds down, we look ahead to the policy and legislative priorities of Washington DC in the year ahead, along with update on developments surrounding potential changes to US immigration policy and the scope of recent sanctions announcements by the US government. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office, including Mark Haefele, Leslie Falconio, Themis Themistocleous, and Daniel Kalt, as they outline their New Year’s portfolio resolutions for 2024.

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for Investment Grade Corporate Bonds and where opportunity can be found. Featured is Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, but three rate cuts are forecast for 2024. It is as if Fed members finally read the UBS Year Ahead report. This is not really an easing of policy, however. Real interest rates will be kept more or less stable as US inflation falls, quantitative policy continues to tighten, and regulatory policy may also constrain activity.

Steve Chiavarone stops by the 1285 podcast studio to outline his macro and market expectations for 2024. We also spend time discussing the risks and headwinds facing markets in the new year and where to locate opportunity across multiple asset classes. Steve Chiavarone is the Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, an Equity Strategist, and a Senior Portfolio Manager with Federated Hermes. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve should leave policy unchanged. The meeting will be followed by Fed Chair Powell delivering the full benefit of his economic insight at the press briefing (this should not take long). Powell will try to prevent markets from expecting earlier rate reductions. This task would be a lot easier had Powell not trashed the Fed’s reputation for forward guidance.

As 2024 quickly approaches, our conversation offers perspective on the current market and macro environment heading into year end, as well as what 2024 might have in store for investors. We also spend time discussing asset allocation preferences and positioning ideas. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager, and member of the Global Allocation Team with BlackRock. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US November consumer price inflation is expected to be stable. Economists must act as second-hand car salespeople; used car prices are a volatile (probably declining) component. Record numbers of people were travelling for fun over Thanksgiving (assuming seeing family constitutes fun), which may have raised leisure travel prices. The fantasy of owners’ equivalent rent adds a lot to consumer prices but not to the cost of living.

As we reflect on the year that was, we take inventory of how the ‘year of inflections’ unfolded relative to expectations at the start of 2023, along with examine the inflections that will carry over into 2024. We also preview this week’s central bank meetings and inflation prints. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We recap the final GOP debate ahead of the Iowa caucus in January and reflect on developments up on Capitol Hill as it relates to Congressional testimony of US Bank CEOs and aid for Ukraine. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor with Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Friday’s US employment report was stronger than expected, but the surprises could be revised away in the coming months (US data quality has deteriorated, meaning more revisions). However, Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s failure to articulate an economic thought process and consequent mantra of “data dependency” has left markets at the mercy of high frequency data releases of dubious quality.

We close out a busy week by analyzing the November employment report and previewing next week’s Fed policy meeting. Brian provides his take on the health of the US labor market and what the course for monetary policy looks like as we head into 1Q24. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US employment report Friday means it is time for the monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages, and are definitely not wage costs. If wages are stable and the number of low-paid workers in the economy increases, average earnings fall. At a time of structural upheaval, the composition of the workforce is likely to change. The distinction is important because (real) wages matter to consumer spending power, and wage costs matter to profit margins and potentially inflation.

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for preferreds and where opportunity can be found. Featured is Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s November trade data showed stronger exports and weaker imports—an outcome which will help the government to meet this year’s official growth target (always something of an overriding concern in China). The data is difficult to interpret with shifts around friend-shoring and localization. Export growth to the EU remain weak, but exports to the US rose compared to last year. In contrast, US data shows import growth from China falling every month to October.

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for fixed income and where opportunity can be found. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

German October factory orders were weaker—although (being Germany) earlier data was revised stronger. Switching from spending on goods to spending on fun continues. Germany has a strong reputation as an exporter of goods. It has a relatively less strong reputation as an exporter of fun.

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for equities and where opportunity can be found. Featured is David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is a day of rather dubious data ahead. The US job vacancy numbers are based on a survey with a response rate so low it should not really be published. The data also only records a subset of job vacancies, and the collective mid-life crisis experienced by US workers in recent years has distorted the reporting of the numbers.

Our conversation breaks down the factors that matter for the market outlook over the near-term, namely the Fed’s policy course, and explains the drivers behind the recent November ‘everything rally’. We also cover considerations when it comes to positioning over the near-term. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There are reports of missile and drone attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea. There may be a tendency to regard this as an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war, but the attacks seem to be quite small scale and markets are not inclined to price in much additional risk. Oil trade and thus the oil price will be the focus. While container ships were among those targeted, trade in goods continues to slow and is less of a market concern.

With the temporary ceasefire ended, we discuss how the Israel-Hamas War might evolve from here. We also cover some recent developments up on Capitol Hill and reflect on the legacy of late Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We reflect on recent fixed income sector performance and dive into a year-ahead outlook, along with a review of fixed income positioning. Plus, a preview of what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

European and US inflation numbers again surprised the markets by coming in lower than expected. The ending of the 2021–22 transitory inflation was very rapid (in the US, durable goods inflation went from record high to deflation within nine months). It may be that the ending of profit-led inflation is similarly fast. This does, of course, mean that real central bank interest rates are rising more rapidly—and the full effect of past monetary tightening has yet to be felt.

Yesterday’s German and Spanish consumer price inflation was lower than markets had expected, and the figures fit with the idea that profit-led inflation is coming to an end. Profit-led inflation works until it does not—once consumers realize price increases are less about fairness and more about margin expansion, they use the force of their spending power and form a rebel alliance. Companies then have to scramble to shore up customer loyalty.

Kevin Dennean joins us in-studio to explain the opportunity set behind the new Tactical US Equity Theme, ‘Select semis’, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. We also cover the cyclicality of semiconductor revenue growth, industry risks, current demand trends, and more. Featured is Kevin Dennean, Technology and Communications Services Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

We get Spanish and German preliminary November consumer price inflation data today. Spanish data is expected to be stable, with a little more disinflation in Germany. Markets have, perhaps, recently become used to the idea that consumer price inflation surprises by being lower than expected. Durable goods price disinflation and resistance to profit-led inflation should push down on the headline number, but fading energy subsidies should slow disinflation forces in the coming months.

Hosted by Liam McCormick, Senior Strategist, UBS Family Advisory and Philanthropy Services

The extension of the ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war is, of course, primarily a humanitarian concern. Investors may interpret this as lessening the risks that the conflict broadens to the wider region.

After a quiet holiday week, investors are gearing up for the final few weeks of the year. We discuss what this final stretch might have in store for the markets and how that sets the stage for 2024. Plus, thoughts on the US consumer and the holiday spending season. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

ECB President Lagarde testifies before the European Parliament. A central bank head speaking to the legislature is something markets often care about, but we hear so frequently from Lagarde that the chances of her saying anything original are very low.

With US consumers consuming, the day ahead for markets looks subdued. ECB President Lagarde is speaking, but this is the fourth time in two weeks we have heard from Lagarde. It seems unlikely that she will add anything markets care to hear.

US consumers are gearing up for the most important celebration on the national calendar; Black Friday sales. Increasing consumer awareness of profit-led inflation may shift focus from flashy headline discount numbers to the question “is this price lower than it was a year ago?”. Deflation of durable goods means that for big ticket items the answer is probably “yes”.

Since the COVID pandemic of 2020, we’ve entered a new world: One defined by economic, social and political uncertainty - but also profound technological change. 2023 was a historic year for markets. Bond yields reached their highest level in more than 15 years. The first trillion-dollar artificial intelligence company was crowned. And the US economy powered ahead, confounding expectations. What can we expect in the year and decade ahead?

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Central bankers keep stressing rates will stay high—the Federal Reserve minutes signalled much the same message. Markets are not paying attention. There is a sense that central bankers are trying to manipulate the bond market vigilantes—but bond traders are like three-year olds at a party who are high on sugar and will not be controlled. Investors are increasingly looking at the disinflationary details of advanced economy consumer prices and speculating on rate cuts having to come sooner.

Our conversation spotlights the landscape for climate-related lawsuits, including recent developments within California and across the globe. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jonathan Bailey, Global Head of ESG & Impact Investing at Neuberger Berman. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The United States does not have a monopoly on fiscal incoherence. Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court banned shuffling money between different projects, prompting a government spending freeze. The German government may have to look back at 2023 and say “that looks like an emergency”; emergencies allow rules to be broken. Meanwhile the EU seems set to declare that most of the EU is breaking or sort-of breaking fiscal rules.

We take inventory of the drivers behind the recent market momentum, including the October inflation data, as well as outline market expectations over the next six weeks as we begin to close out 2023 and look ahead to the new year. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Dan rejoins the podcast to provide his near-to-medium term outlook for the US economy, monetary policy, and equity markets. We also discuss where Dan is finding opportunity within equities, as well as the risks to be mindful of as we approach the new year and into early 2024. Featured is Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The end of this week marks the most important celebration in US consumers’ calendar—the Black Friday sales. This is primarily focused on US consumers spending money they do not have on things they do not need, but online retail and transnational companies have globalized the event somewhat. This year will be interesting as consumers have shifted in favor of having fun rather than buying stuff.

We discuss takeaways from the APEC Summit, namely as it relates to the mending of US-China relations, the deal reached which averted a shutdown of the US government, and an update on the Israel-Hamas War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We catch-up on the municipal market with Kathleen McNamara for a performance update and outlook. We also outline some portfolio themes and where to find opportunity within the asset class. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Financial Times reports Iranian officials signalled no desire to see the Israel-Hamas war broaden in the region. Markets seem content to assume no wider conflict. Crude oil prices have fallen to levels not seen since the summer.

As we continue with our series of year ahead conversations, Alejo Czerwonko walks you through an outlook for Asia, Latin America, and EMEA. We touch on investment considerations for your portfolio and the risks to be mindful of across the globe. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer with Emerging Markets Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UBS Chief Investment Office has characterized the year ahead as a ‘new world’ - Jason Draho explains what elements have come together to remake the geopolitical sphere and how you should position your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s US retail sales reinforced the resilience of the US consumer. That resilience depends on middle-income consumers, and middle-income consumer resilience depends on real spending power being better than headline data suggests. Inflation pressures continue to moderate, and today’s US import price data should show falling prices.

As year-end quickly approaches, we reflect on 2023 performance drivers and preview return expectations over the near-to-medium term. We also provide some thoughts around rate volatility and outline positioning recommendations within the asset class. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets’ reaction to US consumer price inflation reflects Federal Reserve policy failings. There is nothing wrong in markets pricing three rate cuts in 2024—it seems the most likely outcome. But abrupt reactions to a single data release reflects the damage that excessive reliance on “data dependence” can produce.

The unusual and hard-to-explain data for the US economy throughout 2023 has at times puzzled both investors and the markets - might the 2023 macro landscape be indicative of a "Roaring '20s" macro regime? We discuss with Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

October US consumer price inflation headlines have two significant factors. Health insurance calculations are changing and are likely to add to the inflation rate—but of course changing how inflation is calculated does not change inflation reality for consumers. And the fictional owners’ equivalent rent data should contribute less to inflation, again without changing reality.

We outline the latest near-to-medium term market and macro-outlook from the UBS Chief Investment Office, along with the investment case for equities over the next year and the latest Messages in Focus. We also preview this week’s inflation data and discuss whether the Fed and investors will look through potentially hot Q4 inflation data on the expectation for cooler times ahead. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The economic outlook is more or less well behaved. Economic soft (or softish) landings seem on track, with slowing growth and inflation pressures moderating a little faster than expected.

We begin by spotlighting the UBS Veterans Network and how they support our veterans. Shane then reflects on Election Day and discusses the implications of the results, along with several Congressional retirement announcements, to Decision 2024. We also update on the status of talks to avert a shutdown of the US government and provide some takeaways from Secretary of State Blinken’s recent visit to Israel and the region. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Brian recaps what we heard this week from several Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, along with outlines expectations for monetary policy as we head into 2024. Plus, a preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The UK reportedly grew 0% in the third quarter. To any normal person, the difference between 0% and –0.1% growth is not noticeable. For the media, it means that they cannot call this a “recession.” UK growth was slowed by weaker housing activity, with evidence of higher interest rates doing damage.

China’s consumer prices are falling again, and producer prices remain in deflation. The consumer price move is driven by pork prices, which have zero effect outside China. Globally, the consumer prices of imports are mainly about domestic labor costs, so China’s producer price deflation has very limited direct global consequence.

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team, this month featuring Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, and Enrique Davila, Multi-Asset Investment Specialist.

Economists risk being trampled by the herd of central bankers rushing towards media microphones. Bank of England Governor Bailey and Federal Reserve Chair Powell are both speaking, as are several European Central Bank members. Do investors care what they say? Probably not. Markets are comfortable that monetary policy rates have peaked; central bank speak is unlikely to change that. Any defensive hawkish rhetoric implying rate hikes are possible is likely to be met with a cynical “they would say that, wouldn’t they?”.

Torsten rejoins the podcast for an assessment of how economic conditions in the US have evolved since his prior appearance six months ago, along with a look at how the economy might progress as we head into 2024. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy in the wake of the Nov Fed meeting, the market implications of higher-for-longer, along with how to allocate your portfolio for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US holds elections today. The US election cycle means these are limited in number, but there is a state referendum on abortion rights and hints at the balance of power between Republicans, MAGA Republicans, and Democrats. While markets are unlikely to respond, with 2024 a politically charged year today’s votes are very exciting for political-economic geeks.

In the wake of what was a memorable week in financial markets, with notable moves across equities and treasuries, Jason explains the market moves and what the road ahead for markets might look like, along with how to think about positioning your portfolio accordingly. We also spend time on macro developments, such as the Oct Jobs Report and the Nov FOMC meeting. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Market reactions last week highlight the dangers of central banks bleating about data dependency without explaining their medium-term framework or how they expect policy to transmit to the real economy. It leaves investors tending to react very strongly to individual data items, even when (as with the US employment data) the figures are not precise and will likely be revised significantly.

Volatility has increased in recent weeks as investors digest the latest economic and earnings data, sharp moves in interest rates, the Israel-Hamas war and more. David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, and Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, will break down key market drivers, our outlook moving forward and how to position portfolios.

We touch on Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to Israel and the region, along with efforts from the Biden Administration on crime prevention, limiting China’s access to new chip design technology, and an executive order aimed at cutting risk associated with artificial intelligence. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We recap a busy week that was including a look at the October employment report, takeaways from the Fed’s November policy decision, and an assessment of Q3 corporate earnings reports. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Today is the monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages. When the composition of the labor market shifts, the gap between the two is likely to grow. In other words, it is time for the US employment report. The UK recently admitted that no can trust its labor market data, and it is worth remembering that US non-farm payrolls is based on a survey with a less than 50% response rate.

We discuss an outlook for markets and macro conditions and revisit why you should consider an allocation into alternatives as part of your portfolio strategy in order to achieve portfolio diversification. Featured are Daniel Scansaroli, Head of Portfolio Strategy and UBS Wealth Way Solutions Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dan Villalon, Principal and Co-Head of the Portfolio Solutions Group, AQR Capital Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged—surprising no one. There was no apology for past policy errors or the unnecessary risk premium created by Powell’s lack of a policy framework, but Fed Chair Powell finally seemed to acknowledge this might be the rate peak. Bond markets rallied. Let speculation about rate cuts begin.

Our conversation outlines the opportunity set when it comes to investing in infrastructure, including what to be mindful of as an investor when participating in infrastructure related investments. Featured are Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist for the Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, as well as Brookfield’s Sam Pollock - Sam is Chief Executive Officer of Brookfield’s Infrastructure business and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve meets, with no plausible justification for a rate increase. Slowing price and wage inflation mean that real interest rates continue to rise. A growing economy normally requires liquidity growth, but quantitative tightening is withdrawing liquidity.

Achieving circularity in order avoid material waste is not a one-size-fits all approach for companies - we discuss how companies are effectively achieving circularity, the hurdles that exist, and the scope of global demand for alternative materials, most notably plastic alternatives. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Martin Grosskopf, Vice President & Portfolio Manager with AGF Investments. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We outline the opportunity set for investing in India, along with the trajectory for economic growth and the risk considerations to be mindful of. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK’s BRC shop price index registered another meaningful amount of disinflation, as the profit-led inflation episode seems to be working towards a conclusion. Food prices in this index do include the discounts of supermarkets’ dual pricing structure, and those are not in consumer price data, so the slowing of the food sub index will be greater than the disinflation of the official numbers.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Adam Scheiner, Senior Portfolio Manager, Private Client US Equity Team and Portfolio Manager on the UBS Tactical US Themes portfolio, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

The week ahead will deliver investors a lot of information to digest, accounting for central bank policy meetings, economic data and numerous Q3 corporate earnings results. We discuss what is most relevant, what could move markets, and how to be positioned accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The word “recession” is a curse cast on the economics profession. There is no formal, universal definition. The media’s obsession with “two consecutive quarters of negative growth” is increasingly meaningless in the modern world. Output economic measures like GDP depend on how many people are working, and how hard those people are working. Thus, countries with declining populations are more likely to have falling GDP, but are not more likely to have falling living standards.

Our conversation provides some background on the newly elected Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, along with a look at his agenda priorities in the months ahead. We also update on the Israel-Hamas War and what the weeks ahead might have in store. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation addresses ongoing rate volatility and the impact to other asset classes, such as equities. We also touch on a Q3 earnings update, and a recap of this week’s notable macro data releases. Plus, we preview the week ahead and the November Fed meeting. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

When the economic history of the early 21st century comes to be written, the opening sentence in a bold font should be “never go short the hedonism of the US consumer”. Middle-income consumers have lower inflation than consumer price data implies, giving them more spending power. Historically, this would have sent them flocking to the shopping mall—nowadays, they are spending enough at Taylor Swift concerts to reportedly make the singer a billionaire.

Vincent joins us to discuss the impact rate volatility has had to the broader markets and how conditions might evolve from here. We also discuss the prospects for a recession to occur in the US, an outlook for monetary policy, and considerations when it comes to positioning across fixed Income and equities. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Vincent Mortier, Group Chief Investment Officer, Amundi. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US releases the first guess of third-quarter GDP—less than half the data used in the final estimate is available today. Recent UK and European GDP revisions have changed their growth narratives in recent years. Historically, first estimates are revised over one percentage point (up or down), so today’s number is not precise.

China has announced a fiscal stimulus, increasing the deficit limit from 3% to 3.8% of GDP. The money is focused on infrastructure spending. China was expected to meet this year’s growth target of around 5%. The rush to stimulate at this point in the year suggests concern about growth momentum in 2024, or a worry that living standard reality is not as good as the reported GDP figures imply.

We discuss the implications of higher US rates to emerging market equity returns, along with considerations when it comes to positioning. We also touch on opportunities within India and update on China’s economy. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the recent rate volatility and road ahead for monetary policy. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Vishal Khanduja, Co-Head of Broad Markets Fixed Income, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

The data calendar is littered with business sentiment opinion polls today. In the world of soundbite economics, the sensationalism these surveys offer means they get more attention than they deserve. The US ISM manufacturing survey has reported a slump and now a recovery this year—the reality is that manufacturing output has been dull and stable. German manufacturing sentiment signals dire activity levels, but manufacturing sales have been more stagnant than collapsing.

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, rates, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, and Alina Golant, Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist, Sangeeta Marfatia, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

The inter-relationships between economic growth, interest rates, and the Fed are critical for the investment outlook, yet there's not much clarity on them right now. We discuss what catalysts might deliver some clarity in the days and weeks ahead, what is all means for the markets, and how you should think about positioning your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We recap the week that was, including reflections on the first major week of Q3 earnings reports, thoughts on this week’s Fed speak, and takeaways from the Beige Book release. Plus, preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our conversation updates you on the latest developments, including President Biden’s visit to Israel and takeaways from his Oval Office address to the nation. We also update on the House Speaker search and what the days ahead up on Capitol Hill might have in store. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The latest babble from Federal Reserve members gave bond investors reason to hope rate hikes are finished. Bond yields have retraced some of their recent increase. The swings in the bond market, in the absence of a coherent policy framework, add an avoidable risk premium to real interest rates which has economic consequences.

Since early May 10-year Treasury yields have risen from 3.3% to 4.8%, with around half of that increase coming since the start of September. Some investors have certainly found recent yield movements intimidating. Are the bond vigilantes back? And what are the bond markets telling us about growth, inflation, and policy rates from here? In our CIO Livestream, we discuss why, where, and how to put money to work today.

No fewer than seven members of the Federal Reserve speak today. Some are highly qualified economists who grasp the complex structural upheaval affecting the US economy. Fed Chair Powell is also speaking. The initial success in talking down bond yields has reversed. The Powell Fed’s data dependency means markets overreact to every data release, and the farce on Capitol Hill makes things worse.

An explosion at a hospital in Gaza has subtly shifted financial markets’ response to the Israel-Hamas war. Initially markets gave little weight to the risk of a wider conflict. Since the explosion, the Palestinian, Egyptian, and Jordanian leaders have cancelled meetings with US President Biden. While safe-haven flows still seem to be muted, the gold price is now back in the range seen over the summer, and oil prices have moved a little higher.

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team, this month featuring Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, and Tom Digenan, Head of Multi-Asset Investment Specialists.

We expand on an outlook for long-term treasury yields in the months ahead, and preview next month’s Fed policy meeting, along with provide a look at the opportunity set for high yield in a portfolio and overall positioning recommendations within fixed income. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Alina Golant, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK delayed some labor market data on concerns over quality. This is a growing global problem. Structural change and the fact that no one answers survey questions mean data is steadily less reliable in real time. With the Federal Reserve and the ECB both using data dependency rather than formulating an economic framework, there is a risk of greater volatility around policy expectations.

We discuss what has contributed to the rise of long-term treasury yields and how the move has impacted other asset classes, namely equities. We also touch on CIO’s current market outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Exit polls from Poland’s general election suggest the pro-EU opposition parties will have sufficient seats to form the next government. The final result may not be known until tomorrow. If polls reflect reality, this removes a potential source of financial markets uncertainty, reducing the risk of further division in the EU. Other divisions remain in place.

In the wake of the devastating attacks on Israel this past weekend, we discuss what the response has consisted of and what to expect in the coming weeks. We also update on the search for US House Speaker and outline the implications to legislative progress on Capitol Hill. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affair Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation previews expectations from the 3Q23 corporate earnings season, along with recaps the September FOMC meeting minutes. We also touch on the drivers behind recent equity market momentum and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US headline consumer price inflation rose, but the details hint at weakening pricing power and support for a soft economic landing. Most market-determined prices are softening. Durable goods deflation continues. The fairy tale of owners’ equivalent rent, where statisticians pretend people pay themselves an ever-rising monthly rent to live in the houses they own, was the main driver of higher prices.

Listen to the authors of the 2023 Year-End Guide, Jennifer Lan and Premini Scandurra as they share their thoughts on some selected planning ideas from the guide. Jennifer is a Senior Wealth Strategist based in Dallas, TX, and Prem is a Wealth Strategist based in Los Angeles, CA. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We discuss the drivers behind recent performance of the muni markets, along with a performance outlook, and highlight some portfolio themes to consider. Plus, spotlight performance of leveraged closed-end funds and what to expect in the months ahead. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, and Sangeeta Marfatia, Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US consumer price inflation requires economists to become second-hand car dealers by proxy—the volatility of used car prices explains a lot of inflation uncertainty. Developed economies have experienced three inflation waves: transitory durable goods price inflation has been deflation since December 2022; energy prices are less disinflationary, but crude prices have moved more than consumer prices; profit-led inflation is under pressure as consumers rebel, but some sectors may still expand margin.

Featured are Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Robert Giangregorio, Portfolio Manager, Spectrum Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is not the best time for the US House of Representatives to be paralyzed. Voting for a speaker is expected today—markets are not, perhaps, expecting an edifying spectacle. Investors’ main concern is whether the government shuts down on 17 November. This might possibly be avoided even without a speaker in place, but not having a speaker adds risk to markets.

Our conversation recaps a recent string of key economic data releases and what they’re revealing about the state of the US economy, along with how the data might influence monetary policy in the months the come. We also discuss how the data has been influencing recent market conditions, and how the market environment might progress through year-end. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear the current investment views, allocation recommendations and market outlook from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featuring David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

US 10-year Treasury yields have fallen back to the levels of about a week ago. There are two narratives seeking to explain this—a safe-haven bid from Middle East violence, or more dovish comment from Federal Reserve members. The muted currency market response suggests it may be more about Fed expectations. Five members of the Fed are jostling one another for the media spotlight today.

Hamas’ attacks in Israel weakened the shekel and increased oil prices. The Bank of Israel pledged to intervene in the foreign exchange markets and provide dollar liquidity to domestic banks. There is little sign of a broad safe-haven bid for the dollar, at this stage. Investors’ concerns about an escalation of the conflict to include Iran have prompted oil price moves.

Our conversation offers thoughts and reflections on the latest employment report and health of the US labor market, along with a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

This is your monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages, and wages are not labor costs. There is only a weak link from average earnings to inflation pressures from labor costs. Otherwise, it is US employment report Friday—a survey that has been declining in quality in recent years, but which is still a market obsession. Because the US Federal Reserve is a reactive institution, today’s report will impact monetary policy expectations. The skew in market forecasts is for a weaker number.

Following a historic past few days up on Capitol Hill, we provide some background on how the series of events came to be and discuss the next-steps. We also touch on the political implications and what to expect next as we approach the November deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation addresses the global impact, on both a human and economic scale, of diabetes and obesity, along with the innovations and therapies being developed to combat these diseases. Featured is Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the last few days, we have seen bonds sell off, then rally, and the oil price has suddenly plunged USD 5 per barrel. Equities have swung back and forth. What is going on? This, in short, is what happens when economists are not in charge.

With yet another Presidential election cycle underway, the UBS Chief Investment Office has launched the ElectionWatch publication series to keep you informed on the progression of ‘Decision 2024’. We spend time outlining key policy priorities, provide tips for investors on how to navigate the cycle, and more. Plus, a timely look into this week’s historic developments within the US House of Representatives, and what the next several weeks might have in store leading up to the November deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government. Featured is Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Members of the US Congress are now incapable of doing anything. Financial markets are not surprised that members of the US Congress are incapable of doing anything. Former Speaker McCarthy confirmed he will not run again for Speaker. Investors only care whether House Republicans can get the extreme wing under control long enough to elect a speaker before the next government shutdown in mid-November.

We reflect on developments from over the past two weeks, such as notable economic data releases, the September FOMC meeting, and the sharp rise in longer maturity interest rates, and the impacts being felt across financial markets. We also touch on a market outlook and recommendations when it comes to asset allocation. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK British Retail Consortium reported “fierce competition” (otherwise known as “competition”) driving falling food prices. Profit-led inflation, which tends to occur at the end of supply chains, may be in decline. Competition did not lower prices earlier, because consumers were sold a story that oil prices, global shortages, or the war in Ukraine caused inflation. Consumers are not now prepared to believe those stories, and profits and prices are under pressure.

The US government shutdown has been delayed—but in the meantime, journalists and (more importantly) economists have had to waste time analyzing this nonsense. The uncertainty the fiscal farce periodically creates also carries an economic cost.

We recap the week that was, including performance across fixed income markets, an update on negotiations to avert a shutdown of the US government, and more. Plus, preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Japan’s disinflation was on display with the Tokyo consumer price measure for September. As ever, local factors are important (service sector inflation was softened by weaker hotel prices, for instance). Retail sales seem to have a slowing momentum, which may keep domestically determined inflation pressures in check.

With the deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government only a few days away, Shane brings us up to speed on the latest as to where negotiations stand and how the next few days might unfold. We also touch on the impact of a government shutdown to services and the potential duration. Plus, takeaways from the second GOP Presidential debate. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

German and Spanish preliminary September consumer price inflation is due. Energy prices are a focus of course, but transitory durable goods price inflation should continue to exert disinflation pressure. Controlling profit-led inflation pressures were an early focus in Spain, and will naturally be a fading disinflation force. They are still an issue in Germany.

We touch on takeaways from the 2023 voter proxy season, the overall health of the ESG, Sustainable fund landscape, as well as sustainability themes to consider for your portfolio. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Officer, and Dan Roarty, Chief Investment Officer for Sustainable Thematic Equities at AllianceBernstein. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US fiscal farce continues, with government shutdown increasingly likely. A short-lived shutdown damages the US economy, but middle-income families have some immunity (it is middle-income spending that is softening the soft economic landing). The rest of the world cares less about this type of US growth slowdown as the US government does not import much. The rest of the world cares whether US consumers are spending.

David joins us back in studio to share his thoughts on the shape of the US economy, relative to other regions, along with expectations for monetary policy and an outlook for equities. We also dive into allocation preferences across equities, fixed income and more. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and David Bianco, Chief Investment Officer Americas, DWS Group. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The World Trade Monitor reported an accelerated drop in July trade volumes (implying a faster drop in trade share of the world economy). Spending on fun is a service sector thing (though there may be some new clothes bought along the way). Some of this is down to the fact that the 2021 surge in goods demand has cannibalized future demand. Some of this may be a structural break in consumption patterns favoring services.

A fireside chat on the current market and macro environment, including thoughts around asset allocation with Jeffrey Gundlach, the Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A quiet data calendar is more of an issue for markets than in the past. The trashing of forward guidance by some central banks means that day-to-day data releases have assumed more importance for investors. Under Greenspan, Bernanke, or Yellen, markets had a long-term policy framework and a rogue data item could be downplayed. This is not the case with the Powell Federal Reserve.

A few months ago, achieving an economic ‘soft landing’ seemed a challenging task. Inflation was well above target, the labor market was extraordinarily tight, and the financial system was straining under the pressure of higher interest rates. Now today, while a ‘soft landing’ is certainly not yet assured, the economy does look like it much closer to being back ‘in balance’. In our view this creates an opportune moment for investors across asset classes. And in today’s CIO Livestream, we will discuss why, where, and how to put money to work today.

Our conversation recaps the week that was, including a review of the September Fed policy decision, key economic data releases, and an update on the UAW strike. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Americas. Host: Shiavon Chatman

As the annual UN General Assembly comes to a close, we recap some notable themes and focuses from this year’s gathering, along with update you on the latest with respect to negotiations to avoid a US government shutdown. We also touch on some geopolitical points of interest, including Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and credit markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Robert Cohen, Global Head of Developed Credit, DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Several central banks have been demonstrating masterful inactivity recently. The world leader at masterful inactivity is the Bank of Japan, which did nothing overnight. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank both left policy rates unchanged yesterday. Differences in inflation mean inactivity by the Bank of Japan continues a loose policy stance, but real borrowing costs rise with inactivity by the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank.

Following the recent BRICS summit in South Africa, we discuss developments and implications surrounding the possible expansion of the BRICS block. We also touch on allocation considerations for emerging market investors and where CIO is finding opportunity at the moment. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged (quantitative policy continues to tighten). Fed Chair Powell implied higher rates for longer at the press conference, but investors have little (or no) reason to trust Powell’s forward guidance. Data, rather than pontification, will guide expectations.

Our conversation outlines CIO’s current thinking when it comes to the US energy sector, along with the current price outlook for both WTI crude oil and natural gas. We also spend some time discussing the risks to the sector, provide an update on the energy transition (a CIO longer-term investment theme), and where opportunities exist within the broader sector. Featured is Jay Dobson, Energy & Utilities Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We outline some changes to CIO’s Messages in Focus, a set of high-conviction investment narratives that combine our top views across asset class preferences, short, medium, and longer-term themes, and alternatives. Learn more from Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today someone with a law degree is going to try an explain to a group of people with English literature degrees something only people with economics degrees can really claim to understand. In other words, it is the Federal Reserve’s decision day, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The expectation is for no rate increase today.

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo and Alina Golant, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

In the lull before the policy decision storm, the OECD Economic Outlook is published. This will get a lot of media attention (focusing on the bad news—it makes for better clickbait). Outlook tends to reflect views markets had priced in six months ago, and it may not properly include recent sizeable revisions to economic data and the economic narrative (e.g., the UK and Spain).

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

We explain how the US economy has come into better balance and what that means for the markets and monetary policy, along with outline the latest asset allocation recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates this week, but after Fed Chair Powell’s June 2022 policy errors trashed forward guidance nothing can be certain. Data dependency does not help when data itself is unreliable (and potentially politically biased).

Following what was a busy week on the macro calendar, including inflation prints, Brian provides his take on the data and overall reflections on the US economy. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Alex Obaza, Portfolio Manager, T.Rowe Price. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Eurozone has been burdened with a further 0.25pps rate increase. As most current drivers of inflation in the Eurozone are not interest rate sensitive, the inflation impact of this rate hike is questionable. ECB President Lagarde attempted hawkishness at the press conference, but markets ignored the tone. No one has time to pay attention to every comment Lagarde makes. Lagarde speaks again today.

In Europe, 22 people will meet for two hours to try and decide central bank policy for a continent. What could possibly go wrong? An ECB that is more focused on the present than the direction the economy is taking seems likely to raise rates again.

US August consumer price inflation is subject to durable goods deflation and profit-led disinflation, but energy prices will add to the headline inflation rate. The details matter. The fictional owners' equivalent rent price is still pushing up inflation. As no one pays this, middle-income homeowners enjoy a lower inflation reality. Regional variations (high inflation in Florida, deflation in Alaska) may be politically important ahead of 2024 elections.

It’s never too early to begin planning for the annual open enrollment period. Our conversation outlines for you a checklist for selecting work benefits. We also touch on how work benefits can contribute to longer-term financial goals, and other work benefits related considerations. Featured is Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK labor market data was not that exciting. There were bonus payments for health workers and civil servants. Full-time self-employment fell. Unemployment and underlying average earnings growth were unmoved. Investors might need to adjust their thinking on productivity-with higher output than first reported, and with lower employment, productivity may be higher. That has wage cost implications.

With the US economy heating up, we examine the recent data and what it means for monetary policy, both near-term and in the months to come. We also touch on why the market appears to be lacking direction as of late and how to consider positioning your portfolio in light of the current macro environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The G20 met and issued some kind of statement. An accurate reflection of the gathering would be “leaders met and took selfies”. Markets really do not care.

Hear the current investment views, allocation recommendations and market outlook from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featuring David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, and Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

We recap the week that was, including the Fed’s Beige Book and recent performance of equities. We also discuss a performance outlook for equities through year-end and how to consider positioning within the asset class. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US government is investigating Huawei, a Chinese company, over concerns about its chip technology. This follows the Chinese government’s ban on products from Apple, a US company, from being used in government offices. Such moves are often dressed up as national security, but the turmoil of structural change will continue to fuel economic nationalism. Expectations of economic nationalism are difficult to price into financial markets.

With Congress back in Washington DC from summer recess, we discuss how lawmakers are working to avoid a shutdown of the US government, along with other legislative priorities. We also preview this weekend’s G-20 Summit in India, update on negotiations involving the United Auto Workers, and discuss reports of potential arms sales to Russia by North Korea. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As AI continues to make headlines, the UBS Chief Investment Office is pleased to extend the conversation beyond our four-part Summer of AI series. Hear Paul Baier, Co-Founder & CEO of GAI Insights, discuss with Anthony Pastore, how AI is being put to use across industries.

In one sense the global economic story is very clear-but is it obvious enough even Federal Reserve Chair Powell will notice? Cooling consumer goods demand is keeping disinflation pressures alive. China’s August export data showed another (expected) significant drop. The data is now consistent with counterparts’ trade data (unlike earlier this year when China reported exports no one seemed to be importing).

Our conversation walks you through some key provisions for plan sponsors and individuals, as well as a look at what is coming down the pike in the way of provisions for the year ahead. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Bonnie Treichel, Founder and Chief Solutions Officer of Endeavor Retirement. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Brent crude oil benchmark moved above USD90 per barrel, following reports of an extension to production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. This will likely trigger angst about inflation. Oil prices in late 2022 were moving around USD80 per barrel. However, deflation forces for durable goods and disinflation forces as profit-led inflation is squeezed are still in place. If the oil price persists at current levels, it may slow disinflation rather than reignite inflation.

The UK BRC August shop sales data showed a moderate pick-up in the value of sales, but the UK Barclaycard data showed a slower growth in spending. The difference reflects fuel sales and restaurant spending. Both numbers are nominal, and so imply a declining volume of sales as the recent profit-led inflation has eroded household spending power. The UK consumer still has priorities-spending on air travel was strong.

The economic calendar is subdued, with US markets closed. Revisions in last Friday’s US jobs report adjusted employment levels lower. Payrolls data was distorted by the actors’ strike (although actors may still be working as baristas, restaurant serving staff, etc.). Participation rates are rising, labor market churn is falling, and the picture is very much “soft economic landing.”

As we conclude another week, Senior Economist Americas, Brian Rose, breaks down the August employment report and reviews other notable macro data releases from the past week. We discuss how recent data might influence the Fed’s policy decision at the September meeting, the overall health of the US economy, and preview the week ahead. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is US employment report Friday. This is your monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages, and certainly not wage costs. The averaging process makes this data sensitive to changes in the composition of the workforce. The central story of the US labor market today is of a society getting over a collective mid-life crisis.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeff Hans, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

The hedonism of the US consumer is revealed with July personal income and spending data. The spending numbers should be resilient. Middle-income families have job security, face an inflation rate significantly lower than reported (unless Floridian), and still have savings. This is not true for lower income groups, but economic data tends to be plutocratic.

Today’s data calendar is dominated by inflation. Australian July consumer prices rose significantly less than expected-and while not a major focus for global investors, it reinforces the general disinflation narrative (and the idea that profit-led inflation is in retreat).

We explain CIO’s preference for emerging market equities in the current environment, along with explore pockets of opportunity within Brazil, Chile, India and China. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We touch on regulatory and legislative actions within Europe aimed at sustainability, notably as it relates to final ESG disclosure rules under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (or CRSD), along with the global investment implications surrounding the Nature Restoration Law. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Officer, and Nikita Singhal, Co-Head of Sustainable Investment & ESG at Lazard Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK BRC shop price index showed further disinflation in August. The moderating inflation was led by food inflation slowing, which may not entirely translate into official consumer prices. The risk with profit-led inflation is that companies lose customer loyalty. As attacks on profit-led inflation have increased, UK supermarkets have responded with two-tier pricing offering discounts to customers with loyalty cards. Those discounts appear in the BRC data, but not in the official consumer price data.

We provide a recap of the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium, along with examine how recent contradictory data and conflicting interpretations of that data are pulling markets in opposing directions. Plus, a look at how factors such as AI and China have been influencing the markets as of late. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole summer camp for central bankers. A simple apology is all that is required, but a speech is what we get. For all the hype, it probably does not matter that much.

The road ahead to decision 2024 will be a long one, though last night offered voters a first look at some of the candidates vying for the White House. We recap the notable topics debated and how the candidates resonated. Plus, we preview what will be a packed fall legislative agenda on Capitol Hill. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation examines global economic conditions and whether an allocation to emerging market assets makes sense in the current environment. Plus, we bring you up to speed on the BRICS summit and related developments. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US announced that fewer jobs were created in the year to March than originally reported. The US still created lots of jobs, but probably around 300,000 fewer than first estimated. Given how much guesswork goes into US employment data these days, this is not a surprise. Middle income consumers still feel secure in their jobs, so they are not saving out of fear of future unemployment. The revisions imply slightly higher productivity and slightly lower labor costs.

After 40 years of cutting rates and doing ‘whatever it takes’ to flood the world with liquidity, last year the Federal Reserve and other central banks began what would become the fastest set of rate hikes ever. The elephants of central banking are still dancing, but they now look less likely to crush the global economy over our tactical investment horizon.

We revisit our hedge fund conversation by providing a performance update for the asset class, along with a look at how hedge funds can serve as a diversification approach during periods of volatility. We also touch on risk considerations and how to incorporate hedge funds into a diversified investment portfolio. Featured is Sean Sanborn, Hedge Fund Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is little on the calendar today (former US Treasury Secretary Summers has, of course, been speaking). Assorted business sentiment opinion polls will be clamoring for attention with all the sophisticated appeal of a three year old having a temper tantrum.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Real yields helped push US 10-year yields higher yesterday. Caution is needed when interpreting market moves in the dull days of summer, but there are concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer. Fed policy fears are difficult to control, because Fed Chair Powell’s 2022 policy errors trashed forward guidance. Work from the San Francisco Fed suggests policymakers are more divided than normal.

We explore the current thinking on the markets and asset allocation from the UBS Chief Investment Office, along with a look at the factors behind recent market moves within equities and treasury yields. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China cut its one year loan prime rate, but less than markets had anticipated. For those bewildered by the plethora of policy tweaks in China, it is best to look at the bigger picture. China is easing policy, but the focus may be on supporting rather than stimulating consumption-lowering costs for existing borrowers more than encouraging stronger credit growth.

We examine some recent market moves, most notably what we’ve been witnessing in treasury yields and equities, along with a review of the July Fed meeting minutes and the week’s economic data releases. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

A lot has evolved in the markets since we last spoke with Richard Bernstein back in January. We discuss how we got to where we are today in the markets, how economic conditions might progress in the months ahead, along with views on equity valuations, monetary policy and much more. Plus, thoughts on positioning and investment themes. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear perspective on recent performance drivers, investor sentiment, a performance outlook and positioning. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Chris Roberti, Chief Marketing Officer with MacKay Shields (NY Life). Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK consumer price inflation fell, as expected. The big decline in energy price inflation was obviously going to lower headline inflation rates—this is a function of administered prices. Food price inflation slowed, though the official inflation rate exaggerates actual inflation as supermarkets’ two-tier pricing structures mean most people face lower food prices than are recorded. The fanatical desire to go on vacation supported leisure travel prices.

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team, this month featuring Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, and Tom Digenan, Head of Multi-Asset Investment Specialists.

The hedonism of the US consumer is a keystone of the global economy. Today’s US retail sales number matters. It is also complicated. Retail sales do not capture most of the switch to spending on services. Some of this could be structural (flexible working may encourage more spending on services). The headline data hides divergence—low income households have less spending power than middle income consumers. Citizens of some states like Florida may struggle to spend in stores when utility bills are soaring.

Our conversation summarizes recent performance across asset classes, including equities and the recent impact of higher rates to equity returns. We also touch on how rates might evolve from here and how to think about positioning your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The calendar is so quiet today that even former US Treasury Secretary Summers does not appear to be speaking. While a rational market would not be moving in the absence of new information, markets are rarely rational and so silly stories will be amplified.

Learn about the applications of AI with Sam Charrington, Founder and Principal Analyst, TWIML AI Podcast (This Week in Machine Learning and AI).

A conversation with Rajiv Jain of GQG partners on the implications of disruptive technologies and the opportunity set in artificial intelligence. What are the key signposts to monitor going forward?

We recap the week that was, including a look at July CPI data, commentary from several Fed officials, the back-end of the Q2 corporate reporting season and more. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Europe is not offering much entertainment with its data calendar. There are final July consumer price data from some provinces of the Euro empire, but the headline number is almost never revised. There are more details in the data, and that can excite economists (who are exciting people), but not enough to animate investors.

Featured are Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Doug Baker, Head of Preferred Securities and Portfolio Manager, Nuveen Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US detailed restrictions on investment in China’s technology sector. Reports suggest the UK may follow. This is not surprising, but is another manifestation of deglobalization (political interference in global trade / capital flows). As structural change sweeps the economy, scapegoat economics is likely to increase-blaming foreigners is always convenient. That encourages prejudice politics and economic nationalism. Whatever the merits of individual sanctions, the result is less efficiency.

Hear perspective on recent performance drivers, investor sentiment, a performance outlook and positioning. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Nick Venditti, Senior Portfolio Manager on the Municipal Fixed Income team with Allspring Global Investments. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s July consumer price inflation rate turned negative, joining producer prices in deflation (in year-over-year terms). On official numbers, China ranks behind the US and ahead of the EU in terms of size. Why does China’s deflation not matter more to the rest of the world?

The US offers June trade data today. China already published July trade numbers-they were weaker than expected, and the first quarter’s trade data was revised lower. Economists have been suspicious about China’s first quarter export data (China’s reported exports were not matched by other countries’ imports). Revising the numbers now suggests weaker first quarter GDP.

We discuss the potential catalysts for the S&P 500, Treasury Yields and the US Dollar to break out of their ranges, along with whether the momentum in equity markets can continue. We also recap recent key economic data and review how investors should consider positioning their portfolios. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Join Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist, as they cover earnings, soft landing prospects, the latest rise in yields, the Fitch downgrade, and more.

A drone attack on a Russian ship over the weekend caused concerns about commodity supplies. Wheat prices have increased, but only very slightly (compared to last year’s spike). Higher wheat prices may not impact developed economy food consumer prices. Farmers only get a small fraction of what consumers pay for food, and consumers are much less willing to believe the “commodity prices made us do it” narratives of retailers, after the recent profit-led inflation episode.

Our conversation recaps the July employment report, while also touches on the implications of Fitch’s downgrade of the long-term foreign currency rating of the United States. We also cover other notable macro data releases from this past week and preview the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The Bank of England policy decision offers a valuable international lesson. Yesterday’s decision had votes for unchanged rates, a 0.25% hike, and a 0.50% hike. One of the unfortunate realities of modern life is that structural change and the aftershocks of the pandemic means we have less understanding of how any economy is performing in real time, widening the spectrum of opinion about what has to happen next.

The Bank of England meets, and may deliver a split decision. UK data can be spun any number of ways. Mortgage lending is resilient, house prices are falling, inflation is slow to slow, and inflation is mainly held up by quirks the bank can do little to control. I would suggest the merits of “less is more”, not that the bank has asked for my views.

One of the credit rating agencies (it does not matter which) downgraded the US government from something (it does not matter what) to something else. Markets care about the fiscal position of the US, and the repeated farce of the debt ceiling debacle. They do not care what credit rating agencies think about the matter.

Our conversation explains how one can invest in public infrastructure projects across the US, along with the factors behind muni market performance year-to-date, and what the balance of the year might have in store for the asset class. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Korean export data for the first twenty days of July was weaker, reflecting modest international demand for goods. Some of this is the legacy of negative real wage growth across developed economies, but there is also the ongoing favoring of service sector spending. The bias to service spending may be less about a post-pandemic boom, and may instead reflect a more structural change.

We take a pulse on the Fed, Q2 corporate earnings, and recent economic data, and how these factors have been reflected in recent market performance. We also discuss how conditions might evolve from here, including the risks that could dampen expectations for a ‘soft landing’ to be achieved. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We turn our attention to the impact of AI on jobs, education, and the economy. Paul Donovan, Chief Economist, UBS, and Dr. Bruce Lenthall, Executive Director at the Center for Teaching and Learning at the University of Pennsylvania.

Financial markets are focusing on a soft economic landing. Friday’s US data demonstrated the relentless hedonism of the US consumer and ongoing disinflation. Some caution is warranted. Especially in the US, some of the strength of middle-income consumers is due to experienced inflation being lower than reported inflation. As reported inflation converges with reality, the disinflation will offer less additional support to consumers than might be supposed.

Our conversation outlines recent concerns over advanced technology sales to China and implications to the chips industry, a recent initiative to ban members of Congress from trading stocks, contempt proceedings against Mark Zuckerberg, and what to expect in Washington DC during Congress’s summer recess. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Is a soft landing possible? Following a busy macro week, we provide some key highlights, including takeaways from the FOMC meeting and press conference, Q2 GDP, along with readings on Consumer Confidence, Personal Income and Spending. Plus, a look at what’s on the data calendar in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office.

The autopilot light is burning brightly at the European Central Bank. The gargantuan governing council “decided” to raise rates again (whether 22 people meeting for 2 hours can decide anything is a moot point). Tightening continues until economic data provides convincing leadership.

We discuss how for families with substantial wealth, private placement life insurance and private placement variable annuities can help to improve tax efficiency for alternative investments, and provide potential asset protection and wealth planning benefits. Featured is Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve unnecessarily raised rates, as expected. Fed Chair Powell was attempting to be coy in the press conference, not committing to future policy action. Investors have no reason to pay attention to forward guidance (which Powell was instrumental in trashing last year), and instead are assuming the next move will be a rate cut.

Where is your cash invested right now? What is it invested in? What is the yield on your current investment? What are your overall liquidity needs? In this conversation with UBS Asset Management’s liquidity team, we learn about the fundamentals of investing in cash.

Today is hopefully the final rate hike from the Federal Reserve this cycle. Looking back, there are three ways the Fed messed up since 2021. First, Fed policy spin has been terrible. The Fed was right about transitory inflation in 2021 (it was transitory), but when inflation shifted to the wartime energy shock, the Fed failed to communicate the changes properly and its reputation suffered.

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo and Alina Golant, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara, and Senior Closed-end Fund Strategist, Sangeeta Marfatia.

We get another wave of surveys today-the German ifo, the UK CBI trends, and the US Richmond Fed manufacturing and Conference Board consumer surveys. Surveys are a bit like social media filters-they do not show reality, but the version of reality the survey respondent wants you to see.

Markets have been reminded of the unreliability of surveys and the unpredictability of politics. Polls suggested Spain’s general election would be won by the right, but these parties failed to get a majority. Socialist Prime Minister Sanchez stays in office for the time being unless a coalition gets enough votes to elect an alternative. Markets are likely to position for new elections late this year.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

With the first big week of corporate earnings behind us, we reflect on the results and outline overall expectations for the Q2 reporting season. We also take a pulse on equity market performance and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation updates on a range of developments associated with the Russia-Ukraine War, including the potential path for Ukraine’s NATO membership. We also provide some takeaways from Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s Congressional address, and update on the status of the National Defense Bill. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan’s June consumer price inflation was not very exciting. Electricity prices (a local peculiarity of pricing) pushed the headline up 0.1 percentage point. The international core measure slowed to 2.6% y/y.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

Our conversation focuses on the implications of easing monetary policy conditions by central banks across the emerging markets. We also touch on how you should consider positioning within the asset class, along with the risks to be mindful of. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We summarize a range of factors that explain why the US economy has held up better than what was expected at the start of 2023, and provide an outlook for how conditions might evolve over the balance of the year. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As we entered 2023, the broad consensus was for the US economy to slow, inflation to fall, and China’s growth to accelerate. Six months on, the US economy has proven surprisingly resilient to recession, headline inflation has fallen steadily while core inflation has been slower to decline, and China’s post-COVID recovery has disappointed. Why has all of this happened and what does it mean for the investment outlook?

UK June consumer price inflation slowed more than expected. The pattern was similar to recent months. Beyoncé concert tickets did not add to inflation this month, but Harry Styles concert tickets probably did. Consumers are still paying to have fun-holiday, restaurant, and hotel prices are slowing, but slowing slowly. Mobile phone charges rise using an automatic formula, pushing up inflation.

Our conversation focuses on what the second half of 2023 might have in store for fixed income investors, including the tailwinds and headwinds to be mindful. We also discuss an outlook for rates and how fixed income investors should think about positioning. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We explain what’s behind increased traction in anti-ESG legislation, how countries and companies are leveraging technology to achieve net-zero targets, as well as the economic and societal implications of extreme weather events. Plus, our guests share their favorite sustainability-related summer reads. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Mitch Reznick, Head of Sustainable Fixed Income at Federated Hermes. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on July 11, 2023.

US June retail sales data gives insight into the hedonism of the US consumer. The data is nominal, including price rises. Many goods prices are now falling, but areas like food sales still have lingering effects from the profit-led inflation episode. Tighter credit conditions may constrain the national pastime of US consumers spending money they do not have on things they do not need.

We explain why hopes of a soft landing for the US economy are on the rise and the risks to be mindful of as we make our way through the second half of the year. We also assess how the Fed might be interpreting recent rounds of economic data and what that might mean for monetary policy from here, along with outline the latest positioning guidance from the Chief Investment Office. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our second webinar will focus on the investment implications of AI, diving into the near and long-term market impact, key opportunities, and risks.

China’s second quarter GDP growth was mixed-it slowed as expected, compared to the first quarter, but was quite a bit weaker than expected, compared to the second quarter last year. Does this matter globally? A weaker China may impact the global growth aggregate, but the global growth aggregate is a meaningless statistic. Because China’s domestic demand has been quite service-sector focused, fluctuations in that demand have limited spillover to other economies.

Our conversation recaps the week that was, including a look at performance across fixed income markets. Plus, we preview what can you expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

We discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the markets, including considerations when it comes to positioning within private markets. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research and Investment Strategy at The Carlyle Group. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on July 11, 2023.

After the overhyped US consumer price inflation release earlier this week, we have some minor price data. German wholesale prices moved deeper into deflation. This data is higher up the supply chain than the consumer, and so is less exposed to the profit-led inflation narrative. It does hint at the fact that the transitory demand shock inflation wave and the energy supply shock inflation wave are over.

In this podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief G10 FX Strategist, talks US and global macroeconomic outlook and currencies implications with Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, UBS Global Wealth Management.

We check in on the US Financials as we recap the results of the Fed’s annual stress test results of the banks, discuss the implications of higher-for-longer rates to the sector, preview the Q2 corporate reporting season, and outline positioning within the group. Featured is Brad Ball, Financials Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US consumer price data showed inflation slowing more than nominal wages, especially for middle-income consumers whose inflation experience is less than the headlines suggest. It is unclear how much credit the Federal Reserve can take for this-the 2021 transitory inflation turned to deflation without the Fed’s help, and Fed Chair Powell has little authority over energy prices.

Today’s US consumer price inflation report for June stands as a monument to Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s policy errors. No single statistic should matter so much to markets. Coherent central bank communication should leave investors interested in consumer price inflation-but as part of a survey of trends across a wide range of indicators. Obsessing over a single statistic is wrong, and a result of Powell’s policy approach.

Our conversation focuses on the health of the US consumer as we dive into the recent US Consumer Discretionary sector launch by the UBS Chief Investment Office. We discuss an outlook for the sector, the risks to be mindful of and how to think about positioning within. Featured is Sunny Mehra, Consumer Discretionary Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK Chancellor Hunt used a key speech to urge wage restraint in the UK. Data today confirmed real average earnings (not the same thing as wages) are still negative—even if one adjusts inflation to take account of supermarkets’ two-tier pricing structure.

We break down recent initiatives by the Biden administration to lower heath care costs and generate jobs, along with recap a recent visit to China by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With the second half of the year underway, we take stock of the US economy (which has evolved differently than what was forecasted at the start of the year), as well as discuss the investment implications. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s producer price inflation rate moved further into deflation, and consumer prices were unchanged on the year. Food prices are rising, but goods prices kept falling. There is little direct read-through to global inflation. There are two indirect effects. The consumer price data is consistent with China’s consumers spending on services rather than goods, limiting China’s global growth impact. The data also emphasizes there is no global inevitability to inflation stickiness.

We provide some takeaways from the latest employment report and discuss the state of the US labor market, as well as reflect on the June Fed meeting minutes and preview the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

It is US employment report Friday. US non-farm payrolls data are derived from a survey. Fewer than 43% of companies answer the survey-normal companies cannot be bothered. Markets are salivating about a survey of the weird. It is also doubtful whether employment data fully reflects the explosion of side hustles and business startups. Nowhere in the employment report does “TikTok content creator” appear as a job. In the US and elsewhere, there are three major labor market trends that matter to markets.

Bryan Kelly is the Head of Machine Learning at AQR Capital Management, a Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management, a Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and author of numerous published works. Bryan breaks down the basics of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and explains how this rapidly evolving technology is intersecting with the world of finance. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve minutes did what was expected, demonstrating the extent of division within the Fed, and keeping expectations of a July rate increase. The purpose of minutes is not to record what was said but to protect people-but even so, a more intelligent summary of the labor market would have been nice. After years of catastrophically bad real wage growth, it seems peculiar to describe the labor market as “tight” without any qualifying comment.

Anyone worried about inflation “stickiness” should look at Eurozone producer price inflation over the past 40 years. May Euro producer price inflation likely fell into deflation, having plunged some 45 percentage points in a year. Energy is a big part of this, but the collapse of inflation pressure is nonetheless astonishing. Most profit-led inflation is not in producer price data - it is generally a consumer price issue.

Our conversation focuses on the US real estate sector as we dive into the challenges facing office properties, as well as where opportunities can be located across the broader sector. Featured are Jon Woloshin, Real Estate and Lodging Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Todd Henderson, Head of Real Estate Americas with DWS Group.

The US is marking independence, at a time when political partisanship has become more extreme. This matters economically. Partisanship already distorts sentiment-based data, making the results questionable. Partisanship potentially limits internal labor mobility—at a time when being able to have the right person, in the right job, at the right time is increasingly important. Partisanship also encourages prejudice, which is extremely economically damaging. Hopefully, today will be an opportunity to reflect on what unites the United States although that may be optimistic.

With the US subdued ahead of tomorrow’s holiday, markets have little to do but contemplate sentiment surveys. Japan’s Tankan survey already showed improving sentiment from manufacturers and non-manufacturers, with expectations of slightly lower inflation.

Dr. Jules White, Associate Dean for Strategic Learning Programs and an Associate Professor of Computer Science at Vanderbilt University. Dr. White is a renowned expert in the field and will be talking to our host, Anthony Pastore, about the past, present, and future state of Artificial Intelligence.

Our conversation recaps the week that was, including a review of commentary from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the annual Fed Bank Stress Test results, and notable macro data releases. We also preview what you can expect in the holiday shortened week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Yesterday’s revisions to US first-quarter GDP fit a pattern for advanced economies—slowing growth, but not catastrophically slowing growth. A key reason for this is middle income consumers’ resilience. Inflation for this group is less than what headline consumer price data suggests, meaning their spending power is not as weak as it appears.

Our conversation outlines US reshoring efforts and focuses, as covered within the new publication, Made in America, by the UBS Chief Investment Office. We touch on the associated challenges, opportunities and the expected timeline of progress. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

There are some June consumer price inflation figures from provinces of the Euro empire today. Yesterday, Italian data slowed as anticipated. Spanish inflation deserves attention as the headline rate is comfortably below 2%, and the core rate (though higher) should continue to slow. German inflation is a different story, as there are no longer the beneficial effects of subsidized transport prices pushing the numbers lower.

Recent US data has been reported as better than expected. Wide forecast ranges make “expected” a rather imprecise concept. But on both sides of the Atlantic, middle income consumer spending power is better than the official data implies. This is not enough to stop a slowdown, perhaps. It is enough to give resilience to consumers.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within RMBS. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader. markets. Featured are Colin McBurnette, Senior Portfolio Manager, Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US May durable goods orders data has a very wide forecast range, so the consensus number is not a reliable measure. The surge in demand for consumer durable goods has faded, pushing that sector of the US economy into deflation. However, the balance between goods and services demand may be stabilizing.

In Russia, the mercenary Wagner group’s march on Moscow, and subsequent retreat from the march on Moscow has occupied news headlines. Financial markets have bordered on indifference. Political and media attention may be diverted from other issues like the cost of living crisis, but this is not dramatic enough to concern investors. There are two obvious ways markets might be made to care.

As we have reached the midway point of the year and head into a holiday period, we assess the next direction for the markets and how investors should think about positioning for the second half. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation recaps Congressional testimony delivered by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and how fixed income markets responded. We also provide some set-up for the July policy meeting, and touch on positioning across fixed income for the second half of the year. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our conversation provides some takeaways from Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s recent visit to China and examines what relations between the US and China look like today. We also provide some highlights of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US, and update you on the latest with respect to the Russia-Ukraine War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We examine the outlook for EM equities, including how better corporate earnings might translate to performance. We also touch on risk considerations, spanning geopolitics to evolving economic conditions. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets have had one of those switches in the narrative that happen occasionally, and are starting to worry about higher interest rates driving recessions. The Bank of England’s 0.5-percentage-point rate hike, along with central bank chatter, has pushed this story along. Around 0.2% of UK households will refinance mortgages each month, exposing them to the recent interest rate increase.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader. markets. Featured are Gibson Smith, Founder of Smith Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This morning comment rarely quotes non-economists, but yesterday Federal Reserve Chair Powell said “the process of getting inflation down to 2% still has a long way to go.” That is not true in parts of the US, where inflation is already below 2%. In many other cities, inflation is below 3.5%. The details show that inflation can fall very rapidly. The question is why places like Florida suffer continuous high inflation.

Our conversation highlights the latest developments and trends surrounding global supply chains and foreign investment routes being redrawn. We discuss the investment implications and which countries stand to benefit from this rapid trend. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Despite banking turmoil and the risk of a US debt default, the first half of the year has been characterized by resilience. In the second half of 2023, markets are pricing a benign path forward. Yet the calm market environment belies still-high uncertainty about the economic outlook, inflation, earnings, and equity markets. The calm before the storm? Or the end of the worst recession that never was?

Our conversation outlines considerations and approaches for constructing a national portfolio of muni investments, and where opportunities exist. We also provide a muni market performance update and share some muni-related portfolio themes. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell makes his semi-annual testimony to Congress today. There is more than a suspicion that the June pause in policy was part of a compromise to appease the Fed’s factions—with the promise of a hike in July the quid pro quo. Powell has tended to be reactive, focusing on current inflation rather than considering where inflation is going.

Our conversation explains how artificial intelligence supports sustainability, the impact of global investment in the development of hydropower, and how the LGBTQ community helps drive innovation and profitability. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Katherine Kroll, Director of Equity ESG Research and Strategy with Brown Advisory. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation explains the inflections that investors face at the midpoint of 2023, and how the second half of the year will be a balancing as to how market conditions progress. We also discuss the impact of and outlook for the progression of artificial intelligence integration into areas of the economy, as well as outline positioning considerations that investors should be mindful. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

German producer price inflation is expected to continue the long established disinflation trends (although note that the consensus forecast range is wide, and based off a small sample). This is confirmation that current inflation is not demand led or supply led as both would tend to show up in producer prices. Profit-led inflation generally takes place after the producer sector (with the exception of some strongly branded sectors, e.g. food or clothing).

We discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the markets, including considerations when it comes to positioning across multiple asset classes. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, Head of the Fundamental Fixed Income business, and Head of the Global Allocation Investment Team at BlackRock. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on June 13, 2023.

US markets are closed, and with speculation about the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank being temporarily sated by their recent policy decisions, the day looks rather quiet.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Our conversation previews a diplomatic visit to China by Secretary of State Blinken, clarifies reported developments surrounding an interim Iran nuclear deal, along with potential changes being discussed amongst lawmakers surrounding social security benefits. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We outline some changes to CIO’s Messages in Focus, a set of high-conviction investment narratives that combine our top views across asset class preferences, short, medium, and longer-term themes, and alternatives. Learn more from Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We get one of the fun economic statistics today. US Michigan consumer sentiment data offers the always humorous breakdown between Republicans and Democrats (sadly only for headline sentiment—a breakdown of inflation expectations is not provided). These two groups report that they are living in different economies. To be fair, regional divergence in the US has increased, but the sentiment split is mainly about partisan bias. Obviously, people say one thing in surveys and act totally differently in reality.

The Federal Reserve did not change interest rates (it was not a skip, according to Fed Chair Powell). The press conference presumably did intend to sound hawkish, and presumably did not intend to sound economically incoherent. The fabled “dot plots” signaled two rate hikes—given how these are prepared, they are unlikely to be a coordinated Fed message.

In this episode, we cover wealth transfer strategies, charitable giving, and legacy planning. Erik Seeney, Wealth Planning Strategist, UBS is joined by Lisa Snyder, Wealth Planning Strategist, UBS who will share key insights that include: Warning signs for wealthy families facing the ‘third generation rule’, How families can prepare future generations for the transfer of wealth, and Creating a culture of gratitude within multi-generational wealthy families.

Our conversation recaps this week’s Fed policy statement and outlines expectations for what the road ahead might look like for monetary policy. We discuss the implications for fixed income investors, including an outlook for rates and a look at the latest positioning guidance from the Chief Investment Office. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host Daniel Cassidy

Today’s Federal Reserve meeting comes a year after Fed Chair Powell’s significant policy errors. It was last June that the Fed trashed forward guidance because inflation expectations were too high, only to have the inflation expectations data revised lower within days. Today’s meeting is widely expected to pause the mindlessly repetitive chant of “hike, hike, hike”.

Headline US May consumer price inflation is expected to be close to 4% y/y. It is worth remembering that this is not news to parts of the US—areas like New York and Los Angeles have seen the headline inflation rates collapse this year, and are already experiencing sub-4% inflation. This rapid disinflation argues against the inevitability of price stickiness.

Financial markets will focus on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision, with expectations for a pause to survey the damage. This meeting comes one year after Fed Chair Powell tore up forward guidance, perhaps one of the more serious policy errors in the long run.

Which word is shaping up to be the ‘finance word of the year? My guest explains the case for both as we have hit the mid-point for 2023, as well as previews what will be an eventful week ahead that includes May inflation data and a critical FOMC policy decision. We outline how the course for monetary policy might evolve from here and offer some guidance around portfolio positioning for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Economists are staring at a data calendar so quiet that not even ECB President Lagarde is speaking. Doubtless, former US Treasury Secretary Summers will be on a media channel somewhere, as no force of humanity or nature can stop that, but it is a very quiet day. Without distractions, investors are likely to idly speculate on things like artificial intelligence (the bored ape NFT of 2023).

We update on the latest surrounding a legislative blockade in Congress and its impact to the legislative agenda, how the scope of the ‘Decision 2024’ candidate field is shaping up, and a geopolitical roundup. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Advanced Planning Group strategists, Jennifer Lan, Premini Scandurra, and Hunter Peek, summarize some key aspects of life insurance and potential ways it may be incorporated into an overall estate plan. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets (at least bond and foreign exchange markets) tend to pay relatively little attention to data revisions. New but inaccurate information is valued more than delayed but more accurate information. Today’s Eurozone GDP revisions may be a little different because seven economists are forecasting a revision to a negative number. A negative number would allow for suitably apocalyptic, click-bait style reporting. In the real world, no one will notice the difference between 0.0% and -0.1%.

China’s May trade data had a fairly large drop in exports, attributed to weakness in exports to the US and Japan. This does not necessarily signal a sharp decline in global demand. Global demand patterns now favor services rather than goods (China is not a service exporter). Moreover, there was surprising strength in China’s first quarter export numbers, helping to boost the GDP numbers. Potentially the strength reported in the first quarter was at the expense of reported export data later on.

We discuss the evolution of two longer-term investment themes, water scarcity and the energy transition, and the investment opportunities that exist within, particularly as it relates to fixed income. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The effects of weak pay bargaining power are starting to catch up with developed economy consumers. Real spending is tending to be negative. The UK British Retail Consortium survey of retail sales and Barclaycard credit card data showed falling real consumer spending. High food prices meant money had to switch to food retailers—profit-led inflation can move profits from sectors of the economy with weaker pricing power to those that can get away with margin expansion.

Our conversation examines the potential paths ahead for the markets in the wake of the May employment report and as we drawer closer to the June FOMC meeting. We also touch on expectations for the monetary policy course from here and discuss how investors should consider positioning their portfolios. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Saudi Arabia pledged to cut oil production by one million barrels per day. Oil prices subsequently soared to levels not seen since last Tuesday. Any price increase transfers money from buyers to sellers, so the global growth impact is more redistributive than negative. The impact on developed economy consumers depends on changes in oil demand, and whether other factors influence prices. UK auto fuel prices fell recently, after the competition authority became interested in retailers’ profits.

We recap the May employment report, this week’s Fed speakers and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

With US politicians temporarily behaving like grown-ups, economists can turn their minds to the real economy. Today’s US employment report means once again economists must reiterate the critical mantra—average hourly earnings are not wages. They are also very definitely not wage costs for companies. Unit labor costs, which are a lot closer to a company’s wage costs, were revised down in the first quarter. On most inflation metrics, prices were rising faster than labor costs, which is something to bear in mind when companies try to tell inflation stories.

Featured insights from John Savercool, Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation CIO Americas, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy CIO Americas.

Following a hand-shake agreement over the Memorial Day weekend between President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy, we bring you up to speed on where the process stands and preview what the next few days might have in store as lawmakers work towards finalizing the agreement. We also outline the parameters of the deal and the areas of compromise. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Featuring Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist, and Jeremy Zirin, Head of the US Private Client Equity Team, for an update on recent equity market performance, reflections on corporate earnings results and an update on the House View Equity Portfolios.

US House of Representatives Speaker McCarthy led Democrats in passing a debt ceiling increase (some Republicans also voted in favor). Economists now want to dismiss this farce and focus on what matters—like the economic gossip from the Fed’s Beige Book. That suggested slowing economic activity and moderating inflation pressure. The details confirmed past profit-led price increases, but also signalled the limits of this process may now be reached as consumers rebel.

Our conversation sheds light on recent debates as to whether India is poised to economically overtake China. We outline the challenges to be mindful of facing both countries, along with the areas of strength and considerations when it comes to investing. Featured is Chi Amaechi, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The “anecdotal evidence” of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers some heightened interest, with mixed messages about whether the June meeting will pause in the relentless “hike, hike, hike” cycle. While the US economy has not been as bad as pessimists suggested, the stockpile of savings has been used more quickly than thought, suggesting moderating activity.

In the wake of a debt-ceiling deal having been reached over the weekend, we outline the terms and talk about what it all means for the markets. We also identify factors over the next few months that could influence investor sentiment and the direction of markets, including the May inflation prints and the Fed’s course for monetary policy. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US debt ceiling face limps towards a conclusion. There is the normal posturing by politicians, but markets are optimistic that political extremists will be kept at bay and the deal will pass. In Congress, the House rules committee discusses the procedure ahead of a vote on the agreement tomorrow.

There has been an agreement to end the US debt ceiling farce (for now). The bill still has to pass Congress. This is not a “successful” conclusion to the nonsense. The issue will come up again, as the debt ceiling has not been abolished. While the economic impact of the compromise is limited, politicians’ time has been wasted in creating a solution. Worse still, economists’ time has been wasted in talking about this. Unnecessary risk and uncertainty has been added to a slowing economy.

With the June 1 deadline quickly approaching next week, we update you on the latest developments surrounding debt-ceiling negotiations, including what to look out for over the next several days. We also highlight events taking place across Washington DC to recognize and honor the Memorial Day holiday. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Featured are Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Bill Scapell, Head of Fixed Income and Preferred Securities, Cohen & Steers. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the case for seeking opportunity outside of the US, this despite resilient economic conditions and performance in risk assets YTD. We identify what to watch out for during the second-half of 2023, including the factors that could disrupt economic and market conditions. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The data calendar is relatively uninspiring. There is the debt ceiling farce in the US, but this is almost never worth commenting on. The Federal Reserve did reveal itself to be significantly divided over the direction of policy in its minutes. Fed Governor Waller was also playing verbal hopscotch and talking about skips, rather than pauses. It is times like these that strong leadership and a clearly articulated economic philosophy really add value. Never mind.

Our conversation identifies some strategies to help answer that very question. We also cover what’s top of mind for retirees and ‘soon-to-be’ retirees, and how the macroeconomic environment is altering spending, investing, and saving patterns. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Matt Sommer, Head of Specialist Consulting Group, Janus Henderson Investors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK April consumer price inflation fell (as expected) but by a little less than expected. Further up the supply chain, producer prices fell (as expected) but by more than expected. Food price inflation barely moved, which is likely to keep the focus on profit-led inflation pressures. Recent price discounts were too late to affect this data release.

Our conversation brings you up to speed on where negotiations currently stand, including a look at potential areas of compromise. We also outline CIO’s base case scenario and speak to the investment implications. Featured is Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s central bank speak confirmed whatever you thought about central bank policy before the cacophony of comment. The ECB speakers behaved like they were on autopilot because they are (unfortunately) automatically raising rates. The Federal Reserve hawks were hawkish, the doves were dovish, and those in the middle were even handed.

Our conversation walks you through the June UBS House View Investment Strategy Guide, along with outlines why the odds of the secular bull case scenario playing out are on the rise (and the investment implications to be mindful of). Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

No fewer than 11 global central bankers are jostling for attention from the world’s media today. The message from all this central bank babble is likely to be confusion. We are close to monetary policy turning points, in the middle of structural upheaval, with data which is less reliable. In such circumstances, there is a risk that gut instinct and pre-conceived ideas play as much of a role as analysis when it comes to policy comments.

Our conversation updates you on debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington DC, along with offers a recap of this week’s notable macro data releases, ranging from housing to retail sales. We also preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo and Alina Golant, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

The Messages in Focus are a set of high-conviction investment narratives that combine our top views across asset class preferences, short, medium, and longer-term themes, and alternatives. Learn more from Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The drone of central bank speak dominates the calendar again. ECB President Lagarde is speaking, but markets are unlikely to care. Federal Reserve President Williams is another matter—Williams represents a voice of intellectual economic leadership at the Fed.

Our conversation covers the latest on where debt-ceiling negotiations stand and what to expect in the coming days and weeks. We also preview the G-7 meeting as part of President Biden’s visit to Asia, and provide some highlights from OpenAI CEO’s testimony to Congress. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The calendar is crowded with a pontification of central banks. Central bank speak these days tends to confirm investors’ pre-existing prejudices. The world is becoming increasingly complex and data is increasingly unreliable. Certainty, even economists’ certainty, has necessarily declined. However Twitter wants everything expressed as an absolute in a soundbite. This allows investors to select the quotes that fit their view of the world.

Our conversation spotlights opportunities across the emerging markets, particularly for those with a longer-term horizon. We update on some regulatory developments as it relates to automobile emissions across the EU and US. We also touch on what’s on the minds of shareholders with highlights from the 2023 proxy season and discuss ways to drive change through investing. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Geeta Aiyer, Founder and President of Boston Common Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japanese first quarter growth was stronger. Better consumer durable goods demand was part of this, where Japan is an outlier amongst developed economies. Having been the last major economy to reopen from the pandemic, the post-pandemic consumer patterns were delayed in Japan. Exports of goods were not so robust, suggesting international consumers continue to pivot from goods towards services.

As debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington DC continue, we break down the latest developments and highlight the implications to the municipal bond market. We also highlight some muni-related portfolio themes to consider. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US retail sales give a glimpse into the hedonism of the US household. This is April data—too soon for consumers to feel any consequences from banking system volatility. Any credit tightening hurts consumers when they try to increase their credit card limits, not when they are spending the limits they already have. Industrial production is also due, but globally the US matters more as a consumer than a producer.

As we begin another week with markets trading in a tight range (which we explain why), we take inventory of the risk factors in focus and how they rank (such as the debt-ceiling and the prospects for a recession). We also break down how you should consider positioning your portfolio for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class, including within private markets. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates, CMBS, and the macro environment. Featured are Armen Panossian, Head of Performing Credit with Oaktree Capital Management, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is a fair amount of central bank noise on the calendar today. Federal Reserve President Bostic seems to be grabbing for any available media microphone, as part of a financial market conference. The Fed speakers today are unlikely to offer much new insight to investors. The Bank of England’s chief economist is also speaking, and that may be of more interest in the wake of recently revised economic forecasts.

A monthly checkup with top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams, sharing their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Our conversation breaks downs where we stand today on negotiations surrounding the US debt-ceiling, including what’s at stake, what’s being debated and the implications of an extension. We also provide an update on the US southern boarder in the wake of Title 42 coming to an end. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation updates on the latest developments surrounding the debt-ceiling (and potential market implications), along with a review of the April inflation prints and how the Fed might be interpreting the data. We also provide an update on the regional banks and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

UK profit-led inflation is coming under political scrutiny—Parliament is to investigate the influence of food producers and supermarkets on food price inflation. Profit-led inflation tends to occur at the end of supply chains, when companies with strong brands get consumers to accept price increases by disguising margin expansion with a convincing story. Consumer outrage (and associated political focus) is one way to combat this.

US consumer price inflation data was generally as expected. This is the point. Inflation is more predictable. Predictability hints that profit-led inflation may be starting to turn as the unusual nature of profit-led inflation is what is hard to predict.

Learn about the latest debt ceiling conversations being had in Washington D.C., along with a timely update on the latest inflation data. Featured speakers are John Savercool, Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy, Brian Rose, Senior Economist, CIO Americas, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, CIO Americas.

Our conversation touches on the implications of the banking crisis to asset class performance and flows, plus a look at some portfolio themes to consider, an updated new issuance forecast for 2023 and more. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US April consumer price inflation is expected to show relative stability in the year-over-year rates. Today’s data could be seen as good or bad by markets, depending on why consumer prices worry investors.

China reported strong export values and falling import values in April. Beijing certainly focused on getting stronger exports reported at the end of the first quarter (and first quarter GDP growth was boosted by reported export numbers). While it is difficult to marry up one country’s export data with another country’s import data, it is quite difficult to see where the reported exports are going. Slowing demand for goods does suggest that global trade volumes are likely to decline as a share of the world economy.

In the wake of the Fed’s policy decision, the April employment report and the bulk of 1Q23 corporate earnings reporting, we examine what this all means for the investment outlook from here and how to position your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Learn about the latest developments and market implications from Brad Ball, Financials Analyst Americas, David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, and Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

The US Senior Loan Officer survey summarizes the attitude of US banks to lending. While this is just survey evidence, it is conducted by the Federal Reserve as the regulator of banks. As such the responses are more likely to be taken seriously and filled in objectively, than is the case with other surveys. This data matters because lending standards were already tightening, and the recent banking turmoil raises the risk that this tightening accelerates.

We recap the week that was, including reflections on the latest employment data and the Fed’s policy decision. We also analyze the health of the US labor market, and the potential course for monetary policy from here, including how the Fed is currently thinking about inflation. We close by previewing some points of interest in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our featured CIO analysts, Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income CIO Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities CIO Americas, will break down our latest views on the economy and markets. Featured topics will include the Fed rate announcement, debt ceiling, and more.

There is something faintly absurd about trying to sum up something like a complex labor market in a single word. “Tight” or “loose” does not really do justice to the US labor market, which simultaneously has very low unemployment and very low real wage growth. This has been an exceptional period with very high labor market churn.

Dr. Jason Hsu is the Founder, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Rayliant, and recently returned from a trip to mainland China. Jason shares his takeaways, experiences and speaks to considerations when it comes to investing in China, including how to approach and the risks to be mindful of. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25 percentage points (pps). Fed Chair Powell signalled the end of the “hike, hike, hike” policy. Powell suggested wages were not the primary driver of inflation. Economics considers returns to land, labor, and capital—which for inflation means commodity inflation, wage inflation, and profit growth. Commodities are a disinflation force, while Powell does not think inflation is due to wages. What does that leave?

Our conversation outlines how and why to incorporate geographical diversification into an investment portfolio, including a look at the investment case for emerging market equities and bonds. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates a final time. Arguably this has been the most poorly managed tightening cycle since Fed Chair Burns in the 1970s. What went wrong?

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates, CMBS, and the macro environment. Featured are Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We take a trip around the globe and dive into macro and geopolitical developments across developed and emerging markets, including a macro outlook for the US, global trade relations with China, the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine war across Europe, political shifts across Latin America and more. Featured is Chi Amaechi, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Much of the world enjoyed the May day holiday weekend, relaxing (or, if French, protesting). The US had a banking problem and another act in the debt ceiling farce. First Republic Bank was taken over. The ongoing concern is that banking problems cause banks to engage in the equivalent of precautionary savings—increasing liquidity “just in case.” There are reasons to hope this effect will be limited.

As we begin a new month and await a key policy decision by the Fed this week, we review CIO’s expectations and explore the implications of a pause in rate hiking to financial markets. We also preview what will be a busy week for data releases (including Q1 earnings) and discuss how investors should think about positioning their portfolios for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation examines the macroeconomic environment in the wake of the banking crisis and how conditions might evolve over the course of 2023, including the path forward for monetary policy. We also discuss the investment implications of recent developments and how to consider positioning your portfolio. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office and Joe Zidle, Chief Investment Strategist for the Private Wealth Solutions Group, Blackstone. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US March income and consumption data is due. Excitement is reduced by yesterday’s first quarter GDP data, which reminded investors (again) never to short the hedonism of the US consumer. Today’s data should show slower consumer activity, and falling real spending will reflect the consequences of two years of falling real incomes.

Hear insights from Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, and Davide Serra, Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments.

The US will deliver an ill-educated guess at how fast the US economy grew in the first quarter, with the first estimate of GDP. This number will be revised for years to come, and may well end up having little resemblance to today’s release. None of this will stop the breathless sensationalism of media reporting, nor politicians spinning the data right round (like a record).

Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and colleagues around the world discuss why we prefer bonds to equities, and today’s investment outlook.

Hear perspective on recent performance drivers, investor sentiment, a performance outlook and positioning. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Mike Rabuffo, Principal and Municipal Bond Client Portfolio Manager with GW&K Investment Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The profit-led inflation story has been fuelled by corporate results showing profit-led inflation. As these stories move from the financial press to social media, companies must weigh whether short-term margin expansion compensates for the risk of customer resentment at paying higher prices.

Our conversation examines the current sentiment amongst fixed income investors, along with a look at where CIO is seeing the most value within the asset class. We also touch on which sectors have felt the most impact from the banking crisis, an outlook for rates and more. Featured is Alina Golant, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We examine how this technology will impact the broader economy, along with individual sectors, and what the progression from here might look like. We also touch on the intersect with generative AI and some investment takeaways associated with this longer-term investment theme. Featured are Kevin Dennean, Technology and Communications Services Analyst Americas, and Reid Gilligan, US Media Equity Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Some of the multitude of ECB policy makers have been signalling a rate hike next week, with the possibility of 0.5 percentage points. This follows from the Belgian central bank governor saying (essentially) “never mind the profit margins, hike until real wages become even more negative.” ECB policy making is faction-riven, but there appears to be some difficulty in turning off the hiking autopilot.

As we recognize Earth Day, we reflect on some good news as it relates to progress made across multiple energy production and consumption fronts over the past year. We also touch on some investment opportunities associated with these energy-related innovations. Featured are Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, and Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current market dynamic and what sentiment seems to suggest about the outlook for the US economy. We also discuss the scenarios CIO sees unfolding as it relates to growth, inflation, and monetary policy. Plus, review the current asset allocation guidance from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The data calendar is quiet, with only some surveys (which should never be taken too seriously). The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is worth a glance, but only for the comments section. Anyone who believes in rational economic agents, objectively filling in survey forms based on their quantifiable economic experiences is advised to read the comments section of the Dallas Fed. It normally demonstrates political partisanship and economic prejudice.

Featuring Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist, Adam Scheiner, Senior Portfolio Manager on the Private Client US Equity Team, and Nadia Lovell, CIO Senior US Equity Strategist, with a focus on the UBS Tactical US Equity Themes SMA.

Our conversation recaps the beginning of the Q1 corporate earnings season and outlines expectations for earnings growth in coming quarters. We also provide some takeaways from the Fed’s Beige Book, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

South Korea’s early April export data improved compared to March, and overall looks like it has reached a trough. This suggests that the global economic slowdown should not be too severe. Obviously the hedonistic orgy of spending on goods in 2021 was never going to last, but consumers have not entirely given up on buying things.

Federal Reserve President Williams said banks were fine, but bank lending standards might tighten. This may reflect structural changes. Recent events shifted the dynamics of bank runs. Academic analysis suggests the social media echo chamber helped promote deposit flight, and digital banking makes deposit flight faster. Over the longer term, banks may tighten lending standards to deal with these threats.

Our conversation focuses on hedge fund investing, including why an allocation should be considered in the current market environment, how to think about incorporating hedge funds into a diversified investment portfolio, the risks to be mindful of, among other points of interest. Featured are Dan Scansaroli, Head of Portfolio Strategy and UBS Wealth Way Solutions Americas, and Sean Sanborn, Hedge Fund Strategist, CIO Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Jordi Visser is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, whom has a passion for both investing and horse racing. We discuss how these two worlds intersect, Jordi’s process for investment selection and where he sees both risks and opportunities across regions and asset classes. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK inflation data slowed more slowly than had been expected. Food prices are rising at an astonishing 19.2% y/y (cake prices are partly to blame, it seems). This inflation has little to do with farmers, and as profit-led inflation, this is likely to be an increasing political focus. French finance minister Le Maire made strong comments on profit-led food price increases yesterday. UK consumer durable goods disinflation and energy price disinflation continues.

As expected, China’s first quarter GDP was better than expected. Beijing’s rush to emphasize exports a few weeks ago may have helped flatter the numbers. Higher-frequency data showed consumers spending more, but continuing to save more as well. The spending data was helped by restaurant spending—the international spillover from service sector spending is not zero, but certainly less than spending on goods.

Our conversation draws parallels to market performance at the start of 2023, and that which investors have experienced in recent weeks, and what might it all mean for the near-to-medium term market outlook. We examine why markets might be vulnerable to a pullback and how to position your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We hear from ECB President Lagarde. President Lagarde’s public comments do not normally contain much novelty or insight for investors. Recent ECB speakers have tended to highlight divisions, and it seems that rate hikes will continue on autopilot until the data makes it very obvious that this is a bad idea.

Our conversation recaps the week that was, including thoughts around the March inflation prints and implications to US monetary policy. We also touch on the prosects for the USD remaining as the world’s centric currency, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman.

Our conversation outlines opportunities across sustainable fixed income (such as green bonds), the recent IPCC report on climate change, and investing through social themes. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Lucy Thomas, Head of Sustainable Investing with UBS Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s US producer price inflation rate slowed, consistent with the profit-led inflation narrative. The transitory demand-led consumer durable goods inflation and the supply-led energy inflation have both receded into disinflation; both matter to producer prices. Profit-led inflation occurs more frequently at the end of the supply chain, affecting consumer prices more than producer prices.

Sebastian Mainegra, Investment Specialist, UBS Asset Management, spoke with UBS On-Air host Dan Cassidy about the importance of year-round tax management and how the Personalized Tax Management solution from UBS Asset Management seeks to offset the impact of capital gains taxes

Our conversation updates you on the CIO investment theme, including a look at the investment case and performance potential of the theme. Featured is Donald McLauchlan, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The Federal Reserve minutes suggested some members felt that relentlessly hiking rates—without ever pausing to understand the consequences—might not be the best possible strategy. Fed Chair Powell’s maniacal chant on “hike, hike, hike” drowned out such rational ideas. Reports of the minutes have stressed the staff economists’ “mild recession” view. “Mild recession” is not really defined.

Our conversation examines the current environment for equity investors against a backdrop of macro uncertainty. We dive into the factors that could drive return through the balance of the year, preview the Q1 corporate earnings season, and discuss how to position within the asset class. Featured is Joe Amato, President of the Neuberger Berman Group, and Chief Investment Officer for Equities, as well as David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Learn about how to prepare for the aspects of retirement, beyond the financial. Featured are Katie Williams, Discovery Strategist Americas, and Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US consumer price inflation is expected to slow (month-over-month). Uncertainty comes from volatile used car prices (which do not affect most US households) and the fictitious Owners’ Equivalent Rent (which affects no US households at all). Housing costs will be disinflationary this year, but the timing is difficult.

With markets in search of the next narrative (as the banking crisis eases), we examine the factors that are likely to drive investment sentiment and market activity over the next few months, and how to position your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s March inflation data slowed further. Consumer price inflation was lower, and producer price deflation is coming in ever more negative. As China’s inflation data is a parochial affair, this has no read-through to inflation elsewhere in the world. It seems that, unlike some developed economies, China is not experiencing profit-led inflation and unusual margin expansion.

Our conversation examines the current landscape for emerging market investors, including a recap of what was an eventful March. We discuss the implications to emerging market assets, and some considerations when it comes to positioning your portfolio. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Featuring Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation CIO Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist CIO Americas

In this episode, we cover wealth planning strategies based on key changes from the SECURE 2.0 Act that impact the retirement assets of clients. Erik Seeney, Wealth Planning Strategist, UBS is joined by Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist, UBS who will share best practices regarding: Increasing the age for required minimum distributions (RMDs). Strategies for reducing the tax burden on retirement assets. Understanding the pros and cons of delaying distributions from retirement accounts.

The World Trade Organisation has warned of “sub-par” trade growth this year, and with a rather naïve optimism, it has urged multilateral collaboration in response. There is one cyclical and two structural reasons for trade to slow. Cyclically, the immediate post-pandemic era had a surge in spending on goods rather than services. Goods are traded more than services, so that boosted trade to a record share of the economy last year. As spending on goods and services normalizes, trade is likely to fall as a share of the economy.

Our conversation examines the macroeconomic environment in the wake of the banking crisis and how conditions might evolve over the course of 2023, including the path forward for monetary policy. We also discuss the investment implications of recent developments and how to consider positioning your portfolio. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation examines the current landscape for muni investors, including the performance implications of the recent banking crisis and the path forward for monetary policy. We also touch on investment themes and positioning considerations within the asset class. Featured are Jeremy Jenkins, Director of Relationship Management, Breckinridge Capital Advisors, and Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Europe is offering some insight into the manufacturing sector, with (among other indicators) German factory orders and French industrial production. Manufacturing is unlikely to be representative of the overall economy. Despite lurid tales of supply chains lying in shattered ruins around the world, manufacturing output has kept breaking records over the past couple of years. Now, however, the demand for goods is definitely moderating.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Co-Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With 1Q23 behind us, we reflect on the drivers behind quarterly market performance and how unexpected events have impacted CIO’s market outlook for the balance of the year. We also touch on why the outlook for growth, inflation, and monetary policy is slow burn lower on all fronts, rather than a quick sharp change. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

When economies go through structural upheaval, inevitably some people win and some lose. The causes of this are complex, but people tend to prefer simplicity over complexity—and look for a single scapegoat to blame. Foreigners make an ideal scapegoat. Sino-US relations represent this trend. The US is complaining about “unfair” Chinese national champions. China is complaining about US-led efforts to “suppress” China. Scapegoating distracts from more serious structural problems in each economy.

The oil cartel OPEC announced a 1 million barrel per day production cut (an announcement is not the same thing as reality). The oil price has risen in response, and at the moment is back to where it was 20 days ago. At these levels, energy prices remain a disinflation force, as the price is significantly lower than it was a year ago.

The fourth industrial revolution is a significant structural upheaval—and structural change tends to encourage scapegoat economics and prejudice politics. Those trends have been on display this week, in the form of economic nationalism. The US Congress is terrified China will uncover the secrets of how to dance on TikTok. China’s trade envoy was warning Europe not to follow US trade sanctions. Europe will pursue its own economic nationalist course, no doubt.

As our ‘Year of Inflections’ continues to evolve, events over the past month have shown how quickly the outlook can shift. With uncertainty in the banking sector still high, and question marks about the economic and central bank outlook, markets are likely to remain volatile in the months ahead. Against this backdrop, we focus on strategies that are building resilience, mitigating risks, positioning for opportunities created by regional divergences, and diversifying portfolios.

Spain and Germany issue initial estimates for March consumer price inflation. These numbers are likely to slow quite significantly (especially for the year-over-year comparison). The second wave of inflation—energy prices—starts to drop out of the calculation. What is left is profit margin-led inflation (if companies earned normal profit margins, there is little question inflation would be meaningfully lower).

Our conversation outlines the investment case for commodities and areas of opportunity for consideration. We dive deep into where we are in the commodities cycle, how to invest in the asset class, and the risks to be mindful of. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Al Chu, Portfolio Manager with Newton Investment Management (BNY Mellon). Host: Daniel Cassidy

Swedish supermarkets are cutting food prices, after growing concerns about the extent of (profit-led) inflation. This is not just slower inflation, but outright deflation with price increases and profit margin expansions being reversed. It follows similar moves in Norway last month. If consumers are no longer prepared to live in a pricing power fairy tale, believing the stories retailers tell to justify margin expansion, disinflation or deflation can swiftly follow.

The UK British Retail Consortium's shop price index rose on food prices. The accompanying commentary was textbook for profit-led inflation. Poor harvests and sugar prices were blamed. When profits (rather than demand) lead inflation, retailers need to have a story that convinces consumers that the price increases are "fair". Consumers mistakenly think food prices are related to agricultural prices, which conveniently hides things like the 50% increase in the markup on consumer milk prices in recent months.

As we embark on a new week, we take a temperature on investor sentiment and discuss a near-term market outlook. We also outline the latest asset allocation recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office, and examine the road ahead of monetary policy. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Economics now enters a limbo period. The data flow that we get over the next few weeks relates to the period before the recent financial volatility. There is considerable uncertainty over how the real economy is affected by that volatility. The optimistic case is that larger banks do not tighten bank lending standards dramatically, and consumers carry on more or less as before. The pessimistic case is that lending standards tighten, consumers are forced to spend using only their falling real wages, and fear of unemployment constrains consumption further.

What have we learned this week? Remarkably little. Economists have been wrestling with real-time economic data that has become progressively less reliable as structural change has swept the economy. Now the aftermath of the first bank runs of the Twitter era only adds uncertainty. The future depends on two hard-to-predict behaviors: will bank investors and depositors keep moving their money? And if they do, will loan officers respond by tightening lending standards? Central banks will know what is happening before markets do.

Featured are Jeremy Zirin, Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment specialist, UBS Asset Management.

Our conversation recaps yet another eventful week in the markets, including takeaways from the Fed meeting and press conference, along with an update on the banking system crisis. We also outline the equity positioning changes per the April edition of the UBS House View, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation recaps this week’s notable summit in Moscow, the Congressional testimony delivered by the TikTok’s CEO, rumblings surrounding an increase to the FDIC insurance cap and more. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve raised rates 0.25% yesterday, as expected. Fed Chair Powell signaled they may be close to the end of the rate hiking cycle—acknowledging stricter bank lending standards are a form of tightening. Arguably the longest policy error since New York Fed President Strong in the 1920s is nearly over (the error was not the rate hikes, but the fanatical "hike, hike, hike" mentality without pausing to assess the damage being done).

Our conversation outlines developments surrounding the EU’s Green Deal Industrial Plan, outlines the progression of ‘green transportation’ and touches on the global rise in energy prices and the role renewables can play. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jens Peers, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Mirova. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current longer-term thematic preferences of the UBS Chief Investment Office, including a look at two recent additions, ‘Aging in comfort’ and ‘Education services’. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve delivers its policy decision today. Estimates of the outcome should not be described as forecasts—economists can only guess at what will happen. The fact that we are guessing policy for the world’s reserve currency is the result of the Powell Fed’s comedy of errors.

With a very fluid and market moving macro environment, Brian Rose and Ed Kerschner join us to share their views and thoughts around the state of the US economy, the road ahead for monetary policy and the investment implications to be mindful of. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ed Kerschner, Chief Portfolio Strategist, Columbia Threadneedle Investments. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Alejo Czerwonko joins our 1285 podcast studio to share his recent exciting news of being named to the World Economic Forum’s Young Global Leaders program. Listen as Alejo explains how his work here at the UBS Chief Investment Office, along with his roles in academia and global think tanks, will shape his contributions to the program, plus what he plans to take away and apply from the experience. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and colleagues from around the world discussed the implications of the recent events in the global banking sector for central banks, economies and markets.

Early March export data from South Korea showed a fairly large drop in exports, led by weakness to China. The fact that developed economy consumers have been prioritising service sector spending over goods spending is well established—and record global manufacturing supply is meeting slowing goods demand. However there are some signs that a floor may be close.

We take inventory of market performance as the banking crisis has unfolded over the past two weeks and explore how the developments might impact central bank policy and the macro environment. We also spend time outlining CIO’s latest positioning guidance, plus explain what to do and what not to do during periods of market volatility. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We outline views on equity market performance drivers, themes, as well as positioning across sectors and regions. Featured are Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Brad Neuman, Director of Market Strategy with Fred Alger and Company. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Recent events emphasized that the fourth industrial revolution is revolutionary. Social media has meant that any company’s reputation and brand has become exponentially more important. This emphasizes the importance of a strong corporate culture—having the right person, in the right job, at the right time—requiring employment free from prejudice.

Our conversation recaps what was a volatile week in the markets, include the latest developments surrounding US banks and how this crisis differs from what was experienced in 2008. We also touch on the implications of these developments within the banking sector to the course for Fed monetary policy and CIO’s investment outlook. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The ECB raised interest rates 0.5%, and signalled that future policy would be data-dependent. One would hope that in any well-run central bank, policy would always be data dependent. ECB President Lagarde was asked about the role of profits in driving inflation—the answer was not terribly insightful. Raising rates should tackle profit-led inflation, but it is an unnecessarily destructive way of achieving that goal.

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo and Alina Golant, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

In the wake of developments across the US and European banking systems over the past week, my guests offer perspectives and positioning guidance through both an equity and credit lens. Featured are Elena Guglielmin, CIO Financials Credit Analyst, and Sacha Holderegger, CIO Financials Equity Sector Strategist. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Last week’s US bank runs were effectively the first of the social media age. In 2008, Twitter barely existed. The glories of Instagram and TikTok lay far in the future. US bank runs and European financial sector noise highlight the increased importance of reputation—if you have to explain on social media, you have already lost the argument. All companies have to worry about reputation risk in the modern world, but it is especially important for banks.

David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, Brad Ball, US Financials Sector Strategist, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, discuss the latest developments in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the broader market and economic impact, and investment implications moving forward.

During the UK’s brief Truss debacle, the Bank of England stepped in to offer liquidity to a financial system battered rising bond yields. Having dealt with the liquidity crisis, the BoE went on to raise rates in a measured manner. Investors have to consider whether the Federal Reserve will now learn King’s English, spell the word “labour” correctly, and follow the UK precedent with a rate rise this month.

Financial markets were waiting for today’s US consumer price inflation data with unseemly enthusiasm, but now have become completely distracted by last week’s bank failures. In the real world, the cost of living (for which consumer price inflation is a very poor proxy) probably matters more to people.

Our conversation outlines how the federal government has been responding to fluid developments surrounding regional bank failures in recent days and what the road ahead might look like. We also recap President Biden’s 2024 budget proposal and next-steps, along with preview an upcoming meeting between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the President of Taiwan. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the wake of second largest bank collapse in US history last week, we discuss the near-term market implications, as well as those to the broader US economy and to the course for monetary policy from the Fed. We also cover portfolio positioning guidance for the near-to-medium term. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The failure and bailout of two US banks raise two near-term economic questions: will lending standards tighten in the US (and elsewhere); and if standards do tighten, does that matter to markets?

Featured are David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Brad Ball, US Financials Sector Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Anthony Pastore

Our conversation recaps the February employment report and this week’s release of the Fed Beige Book. We also discuss the health of the US labor market, takeaways for Fed Chairman Powell’s Congressional testimony and other notable data releases from the past week. Plus, preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Putting aside the sensationalism that surrounds a US employment report, what is really happening to the US labor market? First, it is hard to describe nearly two years of catastrophically negative real wages as a “tight” labor market. Tightness should be judged by outcomes. Second, the defining feature of the US labor market has been churn. Only one third of California’s “temporary” unemployed workers returned to their original employer. Filling vacancies with external workers is more difficult, but hiring rates are near record levels. Third, structural changes are creating relative changes (fewer checkout operators, more delivery drivers), and mean some jobs are unreported (TikTok content creators, small business start-ups).

UBS Global Wealth Management's Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas sat down with KKR’s Henry McVey, Head of Global Macro, Balance Sheet, and Risk, and CIO of KKR Balance Sheet. The two discuss how investors can prepare for this new investing regime, with an eye toward longer-term opportunities and asset allocation guidance.

Our conversation outlines the recent upgrade by the Chief Investment Office of the US Real Estate sector to most preferred. My guest outlines associated risks to the thesis, along with highlights notable trends and investment themes across the sector. Featured is Jon Woloshin, Real Estate and Lodging Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The economic story for 2023 might be summed up by the mixed narrative of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. Talk of a “hard” or “soft” landing misses the complexity of the economy. Some parts of the US may get a hard landing, and others no landing. Thus, housing activity was weak (it is sensitive to the relentless rate increases). But consumer demand for leisure travel is so resilient that vacations may have to be considered a consumer staple, not a cyclical purchase.

Our conversation explains the sudden buzz behind ChatGPT and how Artificial Intelligence (as a broader theme) can contribute towards economic development and growth. We also touch on associated risks and where investment opportunities exist. Featured is Kevin Dennean, Information Technology and Communications Services Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In this podcast, we discuss the many risks that lurk in a financial plan, even (especially) when it has a 99% probability of success. We discuss the importance of anticipating non-market financial shocks, strategies to gain control and confidence over your hard-earned savings, and ways for families to give themselves permission to spend freely in retirement. Featuring Andrea Rothberg, Wealth Planning Specialist, Justin Waring, Investment Strategist, and Katie Williams, Discovery Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s cry of “hike, hike, hike” was evident in the Senate testimony yesterday. Powell stressed “data dependency” but not “understanding the data”. Profit-led inflation and seasonal adjustment distortions may slow disinflation early in the year, and accelerate disinflation later in the year. Despite some articulate questioning, Powell failed to elaborate how policy tightening will transmit to reversing profit-led inflation.

Our conversation focuses on International Women’s Day, a global holiday which celebrates the social, economic, cultural, and political achievements of women. Our guests discuss the wealth building journey for women and how to make financial decisions for the future. Featured are Nicole Herman, UBS Relationship Manager for the Women’s Client Segment, and Michelle Doyle, Assistant Vice President, Senior Marketing Consultant and Women in Investing Chair of Professional Development at Federated Hermes. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our conversation revisits the emerging markets as my guests speak to how the Chief Investment Office is thinking about the opportunity set for the asset class and provide us with a look into the ESG leaders across the emerging markets. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas, as well as Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the US today, a non-economist will attempt to explain to a collection of non-economists the extraordinary complexity of an economy undergoing dramatic structural change. The questioning will be mainly partisan point scoring. The question Fed Chair Powell needs to be asked is “what do you think you are doing?”. Powell has yet to explain how raising rates will tackle profit-led inflation. Pursuing higher unemployment seems an ineffective response.

China’s government announced a GDP growth target of around 5%, which is less ambitious than had been expected. Some academic estimates suggest that China’s economy is around two-thirds its reported size—so if a lower growth estimate reflects a more realistic target, increased realism will not change underlying reality. If China’s growth is focused on domestic consumption of services, there is less spillover to the rest of the world.

Our conversation brings you up to speed on the latest equity positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office. We also recap this week’s notable macro data releases and market response, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Learn about the 2023 Planning Guide from UBS with Brad Dillon, Senior Wealth Strategist.

Featuring Mike Contopoulos, Director of Fixed Income for Richard Bernstein Advisors, as well as Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan’s Tokyo consumer price inflation slowed on energy price subsidies. Food companies are trying to get price increases through, which added to the numbers. Durable goods prices also increased, which is not the international norm (in the US, durable goods prices have plunged into deflation). This may reflect different consumer patterns in Japan.

This month’s livestream will be hosted by Solita Marcelli, UBS Chief Investment Officer Americas, and feature Alejo Czerwonko, UBS Chief Investment Officer Emerging Markets Americas, Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist, and Dan Scansaroli, Head of Portfolio Strategy & UBS Wealth Way Solutions Americas.

Against a challenging macro backdrop, our conversation outlines why CIO believes adding emerging markets to the opportunity set can help to achieve returns and manage portfolio risk. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Eurozone consumer price inflation has upside bias, with national data coming in above “expectations”. However, “expectations” are fairly meaningless—the Dutch consensus forecast was based off three numbers (so why was the consensus number even published?). There is a 2.3 percentage point range in the Italian consumer price expectation.

Our conversation explains the recent performance shift within the municipal market, plus a performance outlook against a backdrop of the recent climb in rates. We also cover portfolio themes to consider and discuss the relative value opportunities from New York issuers. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation updates on the Russia-Ukraine War, the regulatory implications of and federal response to the Ohio train derailment, the latest on debt-ceiling negotiations, and more. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We discuss how our market outlooks for 2023 have evolved since the beginning of the year, including dives into the macroeconomic environment and course for US monetary policy. We also touch on positioning for the current environment and in consideration of what the months ahead might have in store for investors. Featured is Matt McLennan, Head of the Global Value Team, First Eagle Investment Management, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

German preliminary consumer price inflation for February is due, after some increases in the French and Spanish data. It is not helpful to describe these numbers relative to consensus, because consensus ranges are becoming so wide as to make the concept dubious. Profit-led inflation does risk higher price increases at the start of the year (when companies traditionally raise prices).

Co-Head Global Asset Allocation, Mark Andersen, and colleagues from around the world discuss the implications of the war in Ukraine one year in, US and China macroeconomics, as well as our global investment ideas.

Our conversation focuses on the latest Modern Retirement Monthly publication, which explores withdrawal rates and how to assess retirement readiness using house-hold specific factors. Featured are Justin Waring, Investment Strategist Americas, and Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Preliminary February consumer price inflation data is due from France and Spain. The consensus is for a stable y/y rate from France, and a further slowing in Spain. The forecast range making up the consensus is so wide as to render the consensus an indicator of questionable value. Politicians in both France and Spain have focused on supermarket food price increases in recent weeks. Farm prices are rising less than consumer prices, with profit expansion down the food chain adding to inflation.

Our conversation focuses on the latest UBS House View, which touches how inflections in the macro economy are occurring at different speeds in different regions. We also cover the latest market outlook and asset allocation recommendations from the Chief Investment Office. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We hear from Lane of the ECB, Broadbent of the Bank of England, and Jefferson of the Federal Reserve today. Central bankers have to know that seasonal adjustment weirdness will be giving false support to data near term. They also must know that monetary policy is a very, very blunt tool to deal with profit-led inflation. But the perception of central bank omnipotence over inflation means that spin will have to dominate over substance.

Our conversation focuses on wealth preservation, how investing differs in the Black community and what to look for in a financial advisor. Featured is Kleo Curry, Financial Advisor, Vice President, Wealth Management. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our conversation focuses back in on fixed income as we examine the year-to-date performance drivers and what the prospects for return look like in the months ahead. We also touch on an outlook for rates and positioning recommendations within the asset class. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US personal income and consumption data is due, with strength expected in consumption (funded by savings and credit). Partly, this is due to the unremitting hedonism of the US consumer. Low unemployment will also help; while this has not translated into pay bargaining power, it gives a level of job security that reduces the need to save as an insurance against an uncertain future.

The Federal Reserve minutes were anxious about the tightness of the labor market. The financial markets were anxious about the Fed’s anxiety. The weird thing is that US real wages have been breaking all records—and not in a good way. The year-over-year rate of real wage growth has been negative for 22 consecutive months. With such a collapse in living standards, the Fed’s relative focus on labor-led rather than profit-led inflation seems peculiar.

Our conversation touches on the burning questions on the minds of investors when it comes to sustainable investing, including ‘Is ESG over?’. We also outline how the US and China are working independently on renewable energy solutions and where opportunity might exist for collaboration. Plus, guidance on how investors should approach a sustainable allocation within their portfolio. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The minutes of the last Federal Reserve policy meeting (which raised rates by 0.25 percentage points) will be closely examined for any possible hint as to future policy direction. We know that the Fed is data dependent, but the question is what data? And does the Fed really trust the numbers?

Our conversation focuses on the current macro environment, including the prospects for a ‘no landing’ scenario, and what that might entail for the markets. We also touch on the latest portfolio positioning guidance from the UBS Chief Investment Office against a backdrop of macro uncertainty. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As part of UBS’s focus on making technology our differentiator and building a bank for the future, we have launched our new technology spotlight, Engineering the Future. Featuring interviews and discussions with a range of experts and collaborators from UBS and beyond, join us as we explore how the future of finance is increasingly being disrupted by technology. Our second episode features a conversation with Mike Dargan, Chief Digital and Information Officer at UBS, who discusses all things agile, recruitment and life at UBS, and his vision for the future. Visit our website, UBS.com/DigitalNext for more information about the podcast.

The data calendar is noisy with business sentiment opinion polls. In Europe, these have tended to bounce back in recent months as the media narrative about the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine has improved. The underlying economic data has tended to be less volatile.

With US markets closed, the calendar is relatively quiet. Investors are likely to continue to speculate idly about the direction of central bank policy—and because the Federal Reserve trashed forward guidance last year, there is broad scope for such idle speculation.

Our conversation outlines the four key themes that were on display during the recent Super Bowl. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The interminably tedious EU-UK divorce is back, with UK Prime Minister Sunak heading to Munich on Sunday. The intention is to lurk around on the fringes of a conference in the hope that someone will stop by for a chat on Northern Ireland. Do markets care? Directly, not much. Indirectly, there might be speculation about the implications of any deal for UK political stability.

We focus in specifically on the state of the municipal market, including reflections on YTD performance (following a challenging 2022), an outlook for returns, among other timely topics within the asset class. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jamie Iselin, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of the Municipal Fixed Income Team, Neuberger Berman. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The adage “never go short the hedonism of the US consumer” continues to hold. Yesterday’s US retail sales also showed consumers’ shifting consumption. Spending in bars and restaurants fell less than normal in January, so seasonal adjustments flattered the data into boosting nominal retail sales. As consumer preferences change, investors may need to re-examine their assumptions about parts of the economy—are cyclical sectors becoming essential?

Hear insights into positioning within the asset class against the current macro and monetary policy backdrop. Featured are Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, Leslie Falconio as well as Dwight Scott, the Global Head of Credit for Blackstone.

Like most economists, the US Department of Agriculture’s “Egg Market News Report” is required reading. US farmers’ egg prices roughly halved in 2023. However, consumer prices for eggs rose 8.5% last month—a reminder that consumer price inflation is complex. Today, US farmers get around a third of retail egg prices. Retailers’ costs and profit margins dominate consumer prices. That is where economists must look for inflation risks.

We examine the performance setup for the group in 2023, including a review of Q4 earnings results for the banks and consumer sub-sectors, sector-wide themes and trends, and notable headwinds. Featured is Brad Ball, Financials Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US January consumer price inflation is likely to produce a frenzy of media excitement. Technical factors mean that while inflation is slowing, it will slow more slowly. Many companies traditionally increase prices at the start of the year, and with profit expansion behind much of current inflation, that may be more relevant than normal. Reweighting the different components of inflation also (temporarily) slows disinflationary pressures. However the lived experience of US consumers is likely to be more disinflationary than the headline data.

On the eve of the January CPI data print, we reflect on recent market performance, including the fundamental and technical drivers. We also touch on the latest market outlook from the Chief Investment Office and review current positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today’s data calendar is a barren wasteland of nothingness—so quiet that even former US Treasury Secretary Summers should find it difficult to justify offering media commentary. In the absence of data, the risk is that idle speculation takes over markets.

This conversation focuses on investors who make up the rising generations, including Millennials and Generation Z. As these groups venture into the world of financial management and planning, we outline and discuss what it means to achieve financial confidence and preparedness. Featured are Shriya Khonde, UBS Consolidated Advisory Program Manager and Patrick Delaney, Retirement Insights Leader with T.Rowe Price. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our conversation recaps the week that was, including reflections and takeaways from remarks delivered by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. We also review some notable macro data releases and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

China’s January inflation data was not especially exciting on the headlines. Producer prices fell a little more than expected. Consumer prices were pushed up by food prices, with service sector prices still growing slowly. That data hints that the domestic demand recovery was quite moderate—a demand boom would have done more for service sector pricing power. The price data has no implications for global inflation pressures.

Another company—Disney this time—has announced headcount reductions. We get US initial jobless claims data today, and the macroeconomic data does not match the high profile press releases of job losses. A major reason is that large companies are not that important economically—smaller businesses matter most to labor markets. Smaller businesses tend to have underemployment rather than unemployment. It is quite hard to fire 10% of a three-person company.

Our conversation recaps the notable themes and messaging from the State of the Union address, delivered by President Biden, including any hints at decision 2024 intentions. We also recap the GOP response, delivered by Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Following up from Friday, we explore the latest developments surrounding the downed spy balloon and the implications of the events to US-China relations. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The State of the Union address is a piece of political theater in the political pantomime of polarized US politics. President Biden's address yesterday has limited near-term market implications given the partisan division of Congress, and economic proposals will generally be ignored by investors. Biden promised the US will not default, and the president has options to prevent that—but the solution is down to Congress.

We discuss the recent Modern Retirement Monthly publication, which focuses on strategies you can implement in order to improve your after-tax wealth potential. We also touch on spend management considerations for during retirement and the differences between traditional and ROTH retirement accounts. Featured are Justin Waring, Investment Strategist Americas, and Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks. It would be helpful to hear an assessment of what the Fed actually thinks is happening given structural economic changes, cyclical impulses, and poorer quality data. An explanation of how the Fed thinks higher rates will change profit-led inflation would also be nice. Instead, we are likely to get unhelpful platitudes; "Payrolls high. Hike, hike, hike."

Following the blowout January jobs numbers and recent Fed policy decision, we discuss how CIO is interpreting it all and the investment implications. We also discuss the longevity prospects of recent market momentum, the current market outlook from CIO and how you should consider positioning your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Economists of a certain age are condemned to have Nena’s 1984 pop song ‘99 Red Balloons’ playing on repeat in their heads this week. The downing of what largely resembles an oversized party balloon from China by the US is reported to be damaging bilateral relations, but beyond a knee-jerk reaction markets are unlikely to care too much. There is political noise, but it seems unlikely to spill over into economic policy (trade taxes, etc). China might conceivably limit tourist travel to the US if it wanted to demonstrate outrage.

A conversation on the current macro and market environment, along with guidance around positioning your portfolio. Featured are David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Moderator: Anthony Pastore

Our conversation outlines the latest on debt ceiling negotiations, as well as those pertaining to the 2023 Farm Bill. We also touch on the latest Congressional committee assignment developments and the tracking of a spy balloon over the skies of the US. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation breaks down the eye opening January employment report and what the data suggests about the health of the US labor market, along with the potential implications to Fed monetary policy. We also discuss the latest Fed policy decision and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

It is US employment report Friday, which means economists will be tirelessly reiterating their monthly reminder that “average hourly earnings are not wages.” The increase in the number of people taking additional jobs to help overcome disastrously bad real wages will tend to lower average hourly earnings. However, as not all the job layoffs that have been announced have been implemented, the payrolls number may get some support.

Fresh off the recent Fed policy decision, our guests offer their reflections and takeaways, along with discuss the implications to rates, credit markets and more. We also spend time on outlining where opportunity can be found for fixed income investors, and how to think about positioning for the current environment. Featured are Gene Tannuzzo, Global Head of Fixed Income, Columbia Threadneedle Investments and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office.

This episode features a discussion between Shawna Hamilton, Senior Strategist on the UBS Family Advisory and Philanthropy Services team, in conversation with Dr. Barney Long, Senior Director of Conservation Strategies at Re:wild. Re:wild’s mission is to protect and restore the wild to build a thriving Earth where all life flourishes. Barney shares how Re:wild combines more than three decades of conservation impact by Leonardo DiCaprio and Global Wildlife Conservation, expertise, partnerships and platforms to bring new attention, energy and voices together. He emphasizes the importance and power of partnerships to expand and amplify their mission.

The Federal Reserve did what was expected, raising rates by 0.25 percentage points (pps) yesterday. Fed Chair Powell offered a confused set of signals, even by the confused standards of Powell's ordinary commentary. For instance, rates would continue to rise but the Fed was not going to challenge the markets' dovish expectations. Since the June policy errors trashed forward guidance, markets have been inclined to emphasize the Fed's actions rather than words.

Our conversation outlines what the shadow economy can tell us today about demand for commodities and ‘circular economies’, including some investment takeaways. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates, slowing the pace of tightening to a quarter point. Fed Chair Powell’s chant of “hike, hike, hike” seems to be running on autopilot. The press conference still suffers from Powell’s June policy errors, when forward guidance was trashed. Markets have less reason to believe forward guidance, forcing the Fed to be ever more implausibly shrill in its statements about future policy.

French fourth-quarter GDP came in very slightly stronger than expected, with a 0.1% increase in activity. This follows from a drop in the German data yesterday—although every preliminary German GDP release in 2022 was subsequently revised higher. Consumers are dragging down economic activity as negative real wage growth starts to overwhelm the willingness or ability to leverage household balance sheets.

We conclude the first month of the year by taking inventory of the technical and fundamental performance drivers behind the strong start, and discuss whether the momentum can continue. We also outline how you should consider positioning for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today is quiet, ahead of this week’s central bank meetings in the US, the UK, and the Eurozone. There is also the enticing prospect of the US employment report, which investors have a lot of faith in (despite of the decline in the data quality).

As we make our way through the heart of the Q4 corporate earnings season, my guest reflects on how the results have measured up to expectations and the prospects for earnings growth in coming quarters. We also discuss the momentum drivers across equity markets and preview what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan and the Netherlands are reported to be joining the US in restricting China’s access to semiconductor machinery. Economic nationalism is likely to continue through the fourth industrial revolution—portraying minority groups and foreigners as the enemy distracts from the pain of structural change. In the fourth industrial revolution, technology is less important than how technology is used, but governments prefer to focus on the simplicity of manufacturing rather than the complexity of implementation.

Against a backdrop of a reopening Chinese economy, we discuss the prospects for performance across emerging market assets in 2023, along with the investment opportunities and risks. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US 4Q GDP is due, and positive but slowing economic growth is expected. The fourth quarter was when the impact of falling real wage growth started to hit consumers as savings and credit became exhausted (for some). However, the consumer was still strong at the start of the quarter, offering support.

Our conversation updates you on the CIO investment theme, including a look at the investment case and performance potential of the theme. Featured is Donald McLauchlan, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

December producer price inflation is due from the UK and Spain. The general expectation is for pricing pressures to slow. Producer prices represent corporate pricing power, and the weirdness of fictional housing measures and things like the boom and bust of used car prices do not affect this data.

Regional preferences in a changing environment - Co-Head Global Asset Allocation and colleagues from around the world discuss commodities and currencies, as well as our regional equity and fixed income preferences.

Our conversation will bring you up to speed on the recent and ongoing developments surrounding the US debt ceiling, and what investors need to know. Featured are Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager with the UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

ECB President Lagarde is speaking today. For those counting, this will be the fourth consecutive business day of comment from Lagarde. It is almost as if Lagarde were a politician running for office, rather than a central banker trying to inform markets. Goodness knows who the audience for these comments is supposed to be.

Revisiting the year of inflections theme for 2023, we discuss the areas of the economy that might inflect sooner than others and the implications of shifting market narratives to market and portfolio performance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We continue on with our series of fixed income conversations as we examine the latest Fixed Income Strategist publication to better understand the narratives to navigate as a fixed income investor in 2023. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The Lunar New Year holiday will subdue Asian markets this week. Before the pandemic the Lunar New Year was becoming a distortion to European, UK, and US data, as the moveable holiday was not properly included in seasonal adjustment. The pandemic shocks to goods demand have overwhelmed that distortion for now.

Join UBS Asset Management for reflections on 2022 equity market performance drivers, performance expectations for 2023, and thoughts when it comes to positioning within US equities. Featured is Jeremy Zirin, Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist for UBS Asset Management.

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo and Alina Golant, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

With 2023 underway, our conversation outlines some important considerations for those in or nearing retirement, including developments surrounding the SECURE 2.0 Act, Social Security and Medicare. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist Americas, and Justin Waring, Investment Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Brainard (a respected economist) implied a slowing of policy rate tightening, but that US rates would stay high for some time. Similar language about the persistence of high rates is to be expected - as the Fed’s June policy errors trashed forward guidance, markets discount Fed comments. Fiercer language is required to generate a moderate market reaction. As profit-led inflation falls, potentially rapidly, the Fed’s language will have to adjust.

Our conversation updates on the macroeconomic environment within China, and touches on the implications and opportunities associated with the economic reopening of the country. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s US and UK data displayed some of the peculiarities of current inflation. Inflation is currently led by profit margin expansion. UK food prices pushed up inflation but farmers are not benefiting. In the first ten months of 2022 consumers paid 10% more for lamb, but farm prices fell 16%. (The fact I have sheep on my farm is incidental to this analysis). Profit margins across the supply chain contribute to inflation.

Hear from Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, about their macro and market expectations, along with guidance around how to think about positioning your portfolio.

My guest explains why brighter days appear to be ahead for muni investors and how to consider positioning accordingly, including a look at the case of municipal ETFs. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

For years, indeed decades, the Bank of Japan’s policy has been a triumph of masterful inactivity. Today, the Bank of Japan did nothing on policy (and they did it masterfully). Markets were surprised by this because markets had ignored economists who suggested the Bank of Japan would, indeed, do nothing.

Our conversation examines the drivers and justification behind the strong start to 2023, how investors should be interpreting the performance and consider positioning accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s economy had 2.9 percent year over year growth in the fourth quarter - better than expected, but China’s economic data is expected to do better than expected. The composition of the data suggests a declining consumer share of GDP. Generally, consumer-led growth in China is thought to be better quality, so this has signals for trend growth.

The World Economic Forum meeting in Davos starts. There will be lots of comment from leaders, comment on the comments from lesser leaders, and doubtless comment on the comments on the comments from former US Treasury Secretary Summers. Do markets care? Not really. Davos is a longer-term focus than financial markets like to consider.

We reflect on the latest round of inflation data and what it might mean for the trajectory of US monetary policy, along with examine the contributing factors to recent upside across equity markets. Plus, a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Yesterday’s US consumer price data does not mean inflation is over, but it does signal that the transitory inflation of 2021 is over. The 2021 surge in durable goods demand normalized, and the resulting collapse in durable goods price inflation was stunningly fast. The commodity wave of inflation is fading, and that leaves the profit margin expansion in focus.

Our conversation outlines some near-term focuses of the new Congress and the new committees emerging within the House. We also provide some takeaways from President Biden’s visit to the US Southern border and the Mexico summit. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With 2023 underway, our conversation offers perspective on the current market and macro environment, as well as what this year might have in store for investors. We also spend time discussing monetary policy, asset allocation preferences and positioning ideas. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US consumer price inflation is not a cost of living index and says little about the real world experience of most US households—the largest component is an entirely made-up number. However, it sets the indexation of tax brackets and much US government spending. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s great June policy errors elevated the importance of consumer prices to policy. Today’s data release thus matters to markets.

The data calendar is quiet. Italian November retail sales numbers are likely to show a drop in demand, but Italian retail sales are not necessarily a huge focus for investors. Instead, there is a waiting game ahead of the US consumer price inflation data, due tomorrow.

William Davies is the Global Chief Investment Officer for Columbia Threadneedle Investments. William outlines his market and macro expectations for 2023, including how US monetary policy might progress and what the prospects are for a recession. We also discuss portfolio positioning, regional preferences and market risks to be mindful of, including geopolitics. Host: Daniel Cassidy