Join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen as he explores the world of finance and investing, through weekly conversations with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders & thought leaders. Learn from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. We don't want you to think like them...but we do want to make you think! Stay up-to-date on https://toptradersunplugged.com
SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
In this episode we talk to Amy Edmondson, Harvard Business School professor and author of the Financial Times 2023 Business Book of the Year: The Right Kind of Wrong, The Science of Failing Well. Edmondson argues we should cultivate an appetite for “intelligent failure” - events that may be painful but ultimately lead to innovation, personal growth and better relationships. This is difficult because we are hardwired to push failure “underground”, a bias that is often made worse by work cultures that punish failure in the name of accountability. Edmondson explains how we can overcome these obstacles using stories from her own life and findings from her career as a scientific researcher. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Amy on LinkedIn and Read her Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Amy Edmondson10:27 - The importance of psychological safety15:04 - The different types of failure18:25 - Why do we fear to fail?22:54 - The idea of reframing25:04 - Practicing reframing27:06 - Has the way students work changed?30:25 - The dark side of the performance mindset32:40 -...
1/31/2024 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 35 seconds
SI280: Equities for the Long Run? ft. Alan Dunne
As we are getting closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss how markets might be affected, should Trump win the election. We also answer a question from our community, in terms of how much you should consider allocating to Trend Following as part of a multi-asset portfolio and we discuss the historical differences between equity and managed futures drawdowns. Lastly, we dive into a couple of recent papers to find out whether stocks are the most optimal allocation for the long run, whether the next decade will be like the last one and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?03:26 - The importance of liquidity06:39 - The global macro picture11:52 - How will markets be affected by the presidential election?16:10 - What about China?21:24 - Industry performance update24:04 - Q1, Anonymous: What would be a fair allocation to trend following in a diversified multi-asset portfolio?32:33 - Q1.1 Anonymous: Any resources or insights to help the selection process for UCITS funds37:29 - Equity versus managed futures drawdowns43:10 - Stocks for the long run - really?55:38 - Has it gone too far with the Magnificent 7's?57:28 - The outlook of the next decade01:02:32 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:<a...
1/27/2024 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 29 seconds
ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark
Casey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds and equities for allocators and why we may see a resurgence of value investing and greater adoption of alternatives in portfolios. We also delve into ESG, the diverging trends in ESG investing in the US and Europe and how the framework of ESG leaders and improvers is key to how Rockefeller thinks about incorporating ESG into their alpha generation process. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Casey on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:45 - Introduction to Casey Clark07:02 - How do Rockefeller Capital Management manage their assets?10:01 - What is their investment philosophy?12:04 - Who are their clients?12:45 - How do they build their strategies?14:24 - How are they setting themselves up for mega trends like AI16:55 - What is driving the ETF growth?17:32 - Their approach to evaluating managers21:49 - Having the right benchmark24:34...
1/24/2024 • 1 hour, 56 seconds
SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski
OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a larger portfolio which would also include the traditional futures markets most other CTAs trade. At the end, Scott also shares his outlook on the alternative markets CTA space with us. If you’re interested in alternative markets trend following, this is a valuable episode to listen to. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Scott on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Scott Kerson08:27 - When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?13:54 - What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?20:25 - Why an exclusive focus on commodities?22:45 - What markets are Kerson trading and why?24:04 - Where are the hidden gems?26:31 - Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading30:37 - Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach31:26 - A need for long-term?33:09 - What is
1/10/2024 • 46 minutes, 57 seconds
SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?03:02 - Industry performance update06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?11:02 - What trends have we seen recently?16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?32:19 - Under the hood of inflation34:23 - What is normal?39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David Dredge01:03:58 - Thanks for...
1/6/2024 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 44 seconds
ALO19: Managing Wealth for HNW Investors ft. Joe Prendergast
In this episode Joe Prendergast, Strategic Advisor and Head of Investment Strategy at Goodbody joins Alan Dunne to discuss the challenges and opportunities in managing wealth for HNW investors, particularly businesses owners. Joe outlines his investment philosophy and why a 50-50 allocation between growth assets and defensive assets is still at the core of his approach to proving a “peace a of mind” portfolio for investors. They discuss risk management and how to manage drawdown risk and the shortfalls of focusing too much on volatility as a risk measure when managing portfolios for private investors. They delve into the current investing backdrop, how higher interest rates have impacted asset allocation decisions and discuss why Joe is structurally more upbeat on the opportunities in public markets in the US but more optimistic on the opportunities in Europe and Asia for private equity.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Joe on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:46 - Introduction to Joe Prendergast04:50 - Prendergast's learnings from working at Credit Suisse07:00 - What types of portfolios are Prendergast running?09:49 - Prendergast's investment philosophy13:59 - How has 2022 changed the asset allocation space?16:32 - Could we have another 2022?18:56 - Having metrics for success26:50 - Managing cash flow31:43 - Shooting for a higher...
1/3/2024 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 6 seconds
SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2
In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Richard on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - Trend following in an unpredictable world09:50 - What is a considered as a good...
12/30/2023 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 45 seconds
GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters
Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Gregory on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias24:11 - The yield is destiny27:28 - What range are...
12/27/2023 • 59 minutes, 7 seconds
SI275: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 1
Join us for part 1 of this special edition of Systematic Investor, where we are joined by all of our wonderful co-hosts for a group conversation. In this first part, we take a look back on 2023 and discuss how the year has been treating Trend Followers and CTAs at large. We also discuss volatility trading and value of adding non-trend strategies to your trend following, the outlook of the SG Trend Index and the challenge of classifying yourself in the trend following industry. Lastly, we discuss what you are looking for in a good backtest and how to approach making changes to your model, the most important lesson that we learned from 2023 and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Richard on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rob on <a...
12/22/2023 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 59 seconds
IL22: The Fund - The Other Side of Dalio & Bridgewater ft. Rob Copeland
In this episode we talk to Rob Copeland, New York Times reporter and author of the bestselling new book: The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unravelling of a Wall Street Legend. Bridgewater is the world’s largest hedge fund and its founder, Ray Dalio, claims to run his firm based on The Principles, rules for life and work that argue for complete honesty and transparency. His most famous Principle: Pain + Reflection = Progress. But Copeland, who has covered Bridgewater for years as a Wall Street Journal reporter paints a radically different picture. Instead of encouraging truth, Copeland’s book documents a rigged feedback system that keeps Dalio permanently at the top and a culture where fear of upsetting Dalio suppresses the truth rather than encourages it. Copeland also claims that Bridgewater’s investment process is far less systematic than it claims, with Dalio ‘calling the shots’. Bridgewater strongly disputes all of these conclusions.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Rob on LinkedIn and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:10 - Introduction to Rob Copeland and his book04:37 - Copelands's relation to Ray Dalio and how the book started09:14 - How Copeland reacted to...
12/20/2023 • 46 minutes, 20 seconds
SI274: Can You Time Trend Following? ft. Nick Baltas
Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas for conversation, where we dive deep into the use of volatility scaling and accelerators in trend following systems. Additionally, we discuss various research papers that address whether trend following CTAs are truly long vol, what the negative impact of trend breaks are, whether you can predict future trend following performance by analyzing previous trend following perfomance and the art of timing trends, why it is important to sometimes settle with “good enough” performance, the future of the 60/40 portfolio and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:10 - What's been on our radar recently?05:09 - Industry performance update06:51 - Q1, Nicolas: Can you replace price with sharpe and trend follow that input instead?17:52 - Q2, Andrew: Is there any validity in having additional accelerators in a system and how would it be used?25:03 - Article: Are trend following CTAs truly long volatility?33:26 - Article: Breaking bad trends42:19 - Know when to be long and short45:15 - Article: Managed futures rotation52:40 - Sometimes good enough is good enough57:02 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio01:03:57 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK 274: Are TF CTAs truly long vol?LINK 274: Breaking Bad...
12/16/2023 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 10 seconds
GAL07: Avoiding Apocalypse Through Quantum Physics & AI ft. Klee Irwin
ALO18: Asset Allocation a la carte ft. David Kelly
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy) which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow David on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:42 - Introduction to David Kelly05:44 - What has become of the recession?08:38 - Are we missing an accident?11:09 - Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?13:29 - Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?14:52 - Are central bankers becoming arrogant?17:15 - What happened to the bond market?19:31 - High debt and high deficit - a new normal?21:48 - Kelly's...
12/6/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 44 seconds
SI272: Disrupting the Asset Management Industry ft. Andrew Beer
OI03: The inner workings of a High-Frequency Strategy ft. Anant Jatia
Anant Jatia, the founder and CEO of Greenland Investment Management, joins Moritz Seibert for a commodities-focused conversation. In this episode, Anant explains how Greenland developed from currency market making to what today is predominantly an HFT-driven commodities arbitrage fund. Anant has a detailed understanding of the workings of physical commodity markets and focuses Greenland’s trades on location and substation arbitrage trades. Moritz and Anant discuss several exemplary trades in detail, including sizing and portfolio implementation, and focus on the tail exposures which could materialize while the trade is active. This is a detailed and somewhat technical episode and a must-listen for anyone interested in commodities arbitrage trading.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Anant on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Anant Jatia06:39 - Anant's experience from working at AQR08:46 - How did Anant's firm evolve over time?10:44 - How difficult is High-Frequency Trading?14:33 - What is their current trading strategy?17:07 - An example of one of their trades21:17 - Staying away from the physical side23:33 - Tracking the market and executing trades27:18 - Managing the cost of trades29:58 - How did they get through the Covid19 period?34:37 - How many markets are...
11/29/2023 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 12 seconds
SI271: Can Slippage be a Source of Alpha? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski and I dissect the macro rally we are experiencing at the moment. We discuss why we are seeing an increasing attention to what CTAs are doing, how survey data regarding the economy confuses investors and markets, and we address some of the most common questions that investors ask in meetings at the moment. Additionally, we discuss how explanatory depth can be applied to trend following, why it is critical to master your attention and speed of adjustment and we wrap up debating how much slippage a trend follower should expect and if slippage can be turned into a new source of alpha.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:21 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?02:20 - Industry performance update04:51 - What is going on in the markets?09:01 - Reverse engineering the CTAs11:45 - Confusion in the markets14:38 - Are we being lied to about inflation?20:24 - Mixed signals22:14 - What are investors asking in meetings at the moment?25:33 - Modeling with personality32:25 - Losers create diversification36:13 - Things that are often being forgotten38:15 - Narratives and explanatory depth47:04 - Are short-term models better than longer-term models?50:34 - Does new = better?56:42 - Getting the backtest and transactions costs right59:31 - Don't overstep your capacity01:01:29
11/25/2023 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 40 seconds
GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Dario on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?12:27 - Where are we now?17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?26:37 - A sticky inflation28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?32:52 - A concern for real-estate?38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?46:21 - Are central bankers bluffing?51:15 - Will there be limits
11/22/2023 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 54 seconds
SI270: CPI, Trend Reversals & Dalio on US-China War ft. Alan Dunne
OI02: Are QI Strategies Sustainable? ft. Maia Mathieson & Faheem Osman
Maia Mathieson and Faheem Osman, both Managing Directors at Macquarie Bank in London speak with Moritz Seibert about the bank’s growing Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) business and how their rules-based indices can help investors to efficiently access various risk premium strategies across asset classes. Maia and Faheem explain the key return drivers behind their commodity-focused strategies, for example curve carry and congestion, and explain why they believe these to be structurally sustainable. We also discuss their client base and how the Macquarie QIS team focuses on designing robust indices that are not curve-fit to historical data. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Maia on LinkedInFollow Faheem on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Maia & Faheem08:48 - What are the most popular return drivers?11:35 - What is driving carry trading?15:10 - When does carry trading stop working?17:23 - Combing strategies for more diversification20:26 - Why does the volatility carry factor exist in the commodity space?22:52 - How do they have an advantage over their competitors?24:40 - What is their core client base?28:38 - How are they giving their clients an
11/15/2023 • 56 minutes, 21 seconds
SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski
Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently?04:24 - A precursor for the conversation05:21 - Industry performance update07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds"16:06 - The results of the paper21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds?33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin?35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now?37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change42:52 - Different people, different perspectives46:39 - Doing what happens next48:12 - Best practices when analyzing the data54:54...
11/12/2023 • 56 minutes, 42 seconds
GM52: The Re-Emergence of the Bond Vigilantes ft. Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it mean mean for equity markets. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Edward on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis29:08 - Will AI save us?32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?41:40 - The baby boom generation -...
11/8/2023 • 56 minutes
SI268: Are Investors Wrongly Positioned for the New World Order? ft. Cem Karsan
OI1: Cracking the Code of Commodity Spread Trading ft. Mauritz van den Worm
You are invited to an eye-opening conversation with Mauritz van den Worm, a quant researcher at Polarstar, a commodities-focused hedge fund in Cape Town, South Africa, hosted by Moritz Seibert. In this inaugural episode of the Open Interest series, Mauritz takes us on a journey through the fascinating world of commodity spreads. We explore not only calendar spreads but also delve into cross-market substitution spreads, location arbitrage trades, and processing margin spreads.Discover how PolarStar navigates the intricate South African commodity markets and the critical role they play in their portfolio. Additionally, Mauritz shares an intriguing firsthand account of PolarStar's position in the US versus European grain spreads at the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Learn how a simultaneous limit-up in the US and limit-down in Europe led to what Mauritz humorously refers to as "a few gray hairs." This is a must-listen for anyone intrigued by the complexities and strategies behind commodity trading.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Mauritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to the new series03:28 - Introduction to Mauritz van den Worm and PolarStar Management09:53 - A deep dive into the South African market16:26 - What kind of trader is Polar Star Management?19:55 - Entering and exiting trades23:37 - How PolarStar Management establishes and analyzes trades30:53 - How...
11/1/2023 • 1 hour, 31 seconds
SI267: A Masterclass in Absolute vs Cross Sectional Momentum ft. Richard Brennan
In today’s episode, Richard Brennan takes us on a tour around the Australian economy and how the investment landscape is changing. We also discuss how different investment philosophies demand different interpretations and why the “one size fits all” approach does not exist, how cross-sectional momentum differs from absolute momentum. Lastly, we discuss why Richard uses an ensemble of trend following systems and why he always strives for maximum diversification, and why I feel we should not introduce divisiveness in the trend following industry and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What is happening in Australia at the moment?07:53 - The investment landscape is changing09:57 - Best UCITS Managed Futures Fund revealed13:17 - Industry performance update16:25 - Why does OJ keep rising?19:54 - There is no "one size fits all" approaches26:44 - How does cross-sectional momentum work?31:12 - The importance of correlation40:26 - Nuancing "treating all markets equally"48:00 - The use of continuous signals53:03 - How does absolute momentum works?59:13 - Discussing sample size01:01:30 - The principle of no selection bias01:04:16 - Why Rich uses traditional risk measures01:06:56 - Letting profits run to their conclusion01:08:03 - Single asset level risk vs portfolio level risk01:08:59...
10/28/2023 • 1 hour, 26 minutes, 2 seconds
ALO17: Inflation, Volatility, and AI: Ruffer's Bold Market Insights ft. Matt Smith
SI266: Constructing and Assessing Trading Strategies ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver is back this week speaking with Alan Dunne about constructing and assessing trend following and non-trend following trading strategies. We delve into mean reversion strategies and over what time frames they might be effective and what are the pitfalls in trying to combine trend following with mean reversion. We also discuss the theory and reality of the benefits of faster trend following, Rob’s experience of this and his approach avoiding over-fitting when constructing trading strategies. We wrap up with some thoughts on AHL’s Trend ETF and how a strategy trading 20 markets might perform versus a more diversified program. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:00 - Update on recent events?09:13 - Industry performance update09:38 - Why is it going so well for Rob?12:15 - The ongoing debate on term premia17:40 - Returns in bonds versus equities21:13 - Q1, Andrej: What's your take on systematic strategies complimenting trend?35:22 - Q2, Harry: Can you speak about the lure of high frequency strategies for traders with modest capital?40:46 - The challenges of fast trend following42:15 - Trading with different account sizes45:07 - Q3, Ravi: Techniques to prevent overfitting of a strategy51:45 - Using boot strapping52:42 - Q4.1, Tommy:...
10/21/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 28 seconds
GAL6: UAPs - What Are We Really Dealing With? ft. Larry Hancock
There is no secret more carefully guarded than that of how to make atomic weapons. Nuclear technology can power us with clean energy or destroy all of human civilization. It has been alleged for decades that there is a correlation between UAP encounters and nukes, a suggestion that seems intuitive because if an advanced civilization was monitoring us, any breakthroughs in nuclear physics would certainly represent a key developmental milestone. In this episode join our Galactic Macro series host David Dorr as he interviews Larry Hancock, one of the preeminent scientific investigators into UAPs and the co-author of UAP Pattern Recognition Study 1945-1975 US Military Warfare Complex and UAP Indications Analysis, 1945-1975 United States Atomic Warfare Complex. Larry gives us a sobering analysis of the data and the facts which make it clear that we are not alone. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow David on Twitter.Buy Larry's books here.Episode TimeStamps: 03:31 - Introduction to Larry Hancock05:37 - How "classified" programs work in the U.S13:26 - Has the Air Force lied about UAP observations?17:13 - UAP activity around nuclear technology22:36 - What are "they" interested in?24:06 - The physics of UAPs29:39 - Are UAP crashes real?34:23 - The unusualness of the UAP Disclosure Act38:54 - Are UAP encounters increasing?46:57 - What are we...
10/18/2023 • 59 minutes, 50 seconds
SI265: Deep Dive Into Non-Trend Complimentary Strategies ft. Nick Baltas
ALO16: Beyond 60-40... A Bold Approach to Asset Allocation ft. Troy Gayeski
Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, joins us today to discuss asset allocation and investment opportunities in today’s higher yield environment. We discuss how higher interests rates are impacting the risk and reward across capital markets and why higher interest rates mean equity valuations may be stretched at the current juncture. We discuss how asset allocation has evolved from the 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation for many institutional investors with a 30% allocation to alternatives. We delve into where Troy sees opportunities within alternatives particularly in real estate, private equity, secondaries and liquid alternatives given his view that we are late in the economic cycle. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Troy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:44 - Introduction to Troy Gayeski11:36 - A top-down macro perspective19:43 - The state of the 60/40 portfolio26:37 - How do investors react to the interest rate?30:47 - Analyzing the alt space35:50 - Advice for allocating to real estate40:00 - An overweight of privates?44:02 - A mockdown in valuations - an unfolding process or mostly done?46:30 - Opportunities and positioning in the liquid space52:42 - Building a diversified liquid alts portfolio55:09 - Is old school global macro still viable?57:15...
10/11/2023 • 1 hour, 4 minutes
SI264: The Evolution of the Trend Following Industry ft. Andrew Beer & Alan Dunne
GM51: Allocating Assets when Goldilocks Inverse ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann shares his current investment framework with Cem Karsan and I today. It's an important conversation as it touches on so many of the most important questions that investors, individual as well as institutional, are faced with right now. How we as investors should allocate our capital taking into account the ever changing Global Macro regimes was fascinating to explore, with one of the sharpest thinkers on this topic. Like Cem and I, you will be impressed with the depth of research and knowledge that Christian shared in our conversation. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Christian on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:33 - Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann04:05 - The global macro perspective08:13 - The changing relationship between stocks and bonds12:25 - Structural and cyclical issues21:35 - Is this inflation different?28:15 - The lag of structural effects32:04 - The age of abundance36:45 - Time to shift back to active management43:10 - The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy52:21 - A move away from bonds and how it will affect us01:00:06 - Does the interest cycle exist?01:00:52 - The Dynamic Balanced Bear01:03:21 - Final thoughts...
10/4/2023 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 53 seconds
SI263: Changes aren't permanent, but change is ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Helen on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson 06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?10:15 - The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency 17:23 - A longer-term structural challenge? 21:21 - A rebirth of the industrial...
9/27/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 8 seconds
SI262: Opportunities in FX fueled by the FED ft. Alan Dunne
IL21: How China Manages Their FX Reserves ft. Zongyuan Zoe Liu
In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Zongyuan on Twitter and Read her Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets33:24 - Defining and achieving utility...
9/20/2023 • 59 minutes, 27 seconds
SI261: The Biggest Story in Asset Allocation ft. Nick Baltas
Today Nick Baltas and I embark on a journey through the shifting tides of investment strategy. For decades, equities have reigned supreme as the primary source of portfolio returns, while bonds played a crucial role as diversifiers. But over the past two decades, something intriguing has happened, and the dynamic between these two asset classes has evolved in ways we've never seen before. Stay tuned as we unravel the fascinating story of this transformation and explore what it means for modern investors. We also discuss what a leading Trend Follower describes as what really determins absolute returns in a trend following strategy...and you may be surprised of what it is.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?03:02 - Industry performance update04:30 - Q1, Corey: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes10:31 - How model portfolios can benefit from trend following19:02 - A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation (AQR Paper)23:50 - How structural inflation can impact the stock-bond correlation27:46 - Illiquid alternatives and commodities as diversifiers35:27 - Significant shifts in the asset allocation space38:14 - Is cash better than bonds?41:40 - Paper from Transtrend47:15 - What really drives the absolute return in a trend following portfolio52:23 - Network...
9/16/2023 • 59 minutes, 19 seconds
GM49: Unveiling the Power of Confidence ft. Peter Atwater
Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Peter on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:04 - What does confidence mean to Peter?04:38 - The feeling of vulnerability06:19 - Being in the present07:57 - Understanding the confidence map12:08 - How to become confident13:32 - Peter's advice for the younger audience17:02 - Having confidence is not a constant17:48 - Learnings from a traumatic experience21:23 - Map it out22:33 - Why is sentiment changing so quickly?28:05 - The generational shift30:49 - Is crypto the new Woodstock?36:15 - Is the Fed losing the confidence of the...
9/13/2023 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 24 seconds
SI260: The Voldemort of the Asset Management Business ft. Andrew Beer
SI259: Trend Following & the New Normal ft. Katy Kaminski
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminski to the Systematic Investor Series, as we dive deep into trend following systems and how to overcome the unintended biases that can creep into CTA systems, why Katy believes everybody has to “go back to the drawing board”, why it is unrealistic to expect things to go back to “normal”, and why Katy believes we are not in a crisis but rather a correction. We also discuss how a crisis is in the eye of the beholder and shed light on the current global macro narrative. We round things off uncovering why Katy believes bonds are mispriced, why "simple" trend following strategies persist to thrive and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:01:16 - What has caught our attention recently?03:43 - Industry performance update06:06 - The challenge of bias in trend following systems13:54 - Taking the bonds out?16:22 - Advice on trading universal parameters19:35 - Going back to normal - a fantasy?23:35 - Trend following - a long divergence strategy26:31 - Are we actually in a crisis?32:05 - Are crises becoming shorter and shorter?36:38 - How does Katy define a crisis?37:40 - A different understanding of trend following?40:32 - Are there different types of crises?45:55 - A global macro perspective51:38 - Are bonds mispriced?55:37 - From predictable to unpredictable...
9/2/2023 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 2 seconds
GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao
Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Chen on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?16:44 - The outlook for inflation19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?26:07 - Rates going back to zero?28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production32:57 - China - a deflationary force38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?39:29 - Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?42:07 -...
8/30/2023 • 57 minutes, 4 seconds
SI258: Absolute Momentum in a Chaotic Environment ft. Richard Brennan
IL20: How to Survive the Current Fourth Turning ft. Neil Howe
Best-selling author and renowned historian Neil Howe joins the show to talk about his New York Times’ bestselling book The Fourth Turning Is Here. Neil believes history moves in generational cycles that last about the length of one long human life. Each cycle has four eras - Turnings - that always arrive in the same order and last about twenty years. We are now midway through a Fourth Turning which is a time of exceptional upheaval and conflict. Previous Fourth Turnings happened during the Great Depression and WWII, the American Civil War and the American Revolution. The good news is a society that successfully navigates a Fourth Turning emerges reborn - more equal, more optimistic and more united. We discuss the implications of this era for financial markets, why it will be the Millennial generation that leads us through the coming conflict and what will characterize the world that emerges afterwards.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Neil on Twitter and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Introduction to Neil Howe03:43 - What characterise each turning?17:53 - A generation cliff25:18 - The importance of the financial crisis in 200827:55 - Cycles are non linear30:08 - Every crisis has a...
8/23/2023 • 1 hour, 22 minutes, 27 seconds
SI257: Preparing for a Volatile Future ft. Cem Karsan
GM47: Is the Economy Actually Doing Better Than Expected? ft. Peter Berezin
Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research joins us today for a wide ranging discussion on the outlook for global economy and global capital markets. We hear why Peter has been more upbeat than the consensus on the outlook for the US economy but why he continues to believe that the outlook is for recession next year. He outlines why US stocks may continue to make gains in the near term but the outlook is much more challenging on a five-year view. We discuss his Kinked Philips Curve framework for analysing the economy and why that continues to point to declining inflation in the near term. We also discuss the outlook for China, the renminbi, the yen and global emerging markets.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Peter on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Introduction to Peter Berezin05:35 - The current state of the U.S economy10:14 - Where is inflation heading?16:24 - A wrong prediction?20:23 - How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?24:39 - How has the economy withstood higher rates?27:10 - What does Peter's models show us?31:32 - Challenges in the credit space33:33 - The implications of high valuations36:08 - Potential weaknesses in the system40:45 - Looking...
8/16/2023 • 1 hour, 46 seconds
SI256: Investor Behaviour & the How to Deal with Transaction Costs ft. Mark Rzepczynski
TTU145: All In on Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital
Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital is perhaps the most successful of the famous group of Turtles, and today we discuss what he has learned from his 40+ years love affair with Trend Following, and how he has evolved his CTA program. We debate the challenges of using the Sharpe Ratio and what improvement really look like, how he uses volatility in his trend following process and the conflicts that can arise when working with clients. We also find out why Jerry believes you can be a good manager without using stops even if this is not how he does it, why he believes in trend following plus nothing, why he felt he had no choice than to launch an ETF with that name and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Chesapeake Capital.Episode Timestamps:02:58 - Introduction to Chesapeake Capital07:02 - Jerry's key trend following learnings12:54 - Jerry's investment philosophy17:02 - Being evolutionary without too much tinkering22:09 - Advice on running a trend following program26:48 - Their process for selecting parameters32:15 - What does an improvement look like...if not a higher Sharpe?39:25 - The role of volatility in the trend following process44:41 - The challenges of working with clients48:51 - What if everyone was a trend follower?54:21 - Can you be a good manager without using stops?57:05 - Why...
7/31/2023 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 57 seconds
SI254: Does Trend Following Single Stocks Make Sense? ft. Nick Baltas
ALO15: Exploring Today's Investment Opportunities ft. Christopher Zook
Christopher Zook, Founder, Chairman and CIO of CAZ Investments joins us for fascinating and thought-provoking conversation on the outlook for the economy and the investment opportunities in current markets. Christopher explains why he thinks the risk-reward is so poor in public equity markets at the moment and why investors are being offered poor prospective returns for the risk. We discuss private markets and the areas where CAZ is focused on allocating capital, particularly sports franchises and GP stakes. We also discuss some of the potential challenges in private markets as consumer and real estate debt is refinanced in the coming years. We delve into what Christopher and his team look for when selecting managers and partners, and the questions they ask to help unearth the next thematic opportunity. We wrap up by discussing the big influences on Christopher’s career and his key learnings from over three decades in the industry.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Christopher on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:51 - Introduction to Christopher Zook05:11 - Zook's current view on the markets and economy09:06 - The outlook for real estate12:48 - Stagflation and the impact of AI16:29 - Parallels to the .com bubble?18:45 - Options trading - a key driver of short term21:35 - Building portfolios for the current environment25:44 - Inflation, stocks and pricing...
7/26/2023 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 22 seconds
SI253: A New Trend Following ETF is Born ft. Andrew Beer & Jerry Parker
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Jerry Parker for a fascinating conversation about the different approches to trend following within the ETF landscape. We discuss what the role trend following should play in a portfolio, the best approach to staying diversified, and where the growth might come from in the ETF space. We also discuss a few more controversial topics like fees, and why Jerry view trend following and managed futures as 2 different things and much more. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:44 - What's been on Andrew's and Jerry's radar lately?04:38 - Industry performance update05:43 - Lessons learned from launching Trend Following Plus Nothing10:21 - What should the role of Trend Following be?13:45 - New ETFs - where will the growth come from?16:35 - The best approach to trading markets23:37 - Staying balanced with single stocks27:54 - Biases in Jerry's trading30:11 - Will Jerry's correlation to equities begin to increase?33:59 - Q1, Oliver: Why pay Jerry higher fees for being long equities?40:02 - Will large hedge funds bring ETFs to markets?44:08 - Are we in a hedge fund CTA fee bubble?46:59 - Jerrys take on performance fees52:24 - Andrew's take on performance fees54:26 - Trend Following vs Managed Futures - 2 different things?01:08:52 - Tax efficiency in ETFs01:12:24 -...
7/22/2023 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 7 seconds
GAL03: Global Conflicts and the Trajectory of Humanity ft. Dr. Paul Sullivan
When it comes to global conflict and understanding the limits of Earth's resources the man to turn to is Dr. Paul Sullivan. Paul is a seasoned professor that has taught at several of the world's leading universities and influenced the thinking of students that are now some of the DOD's top brass as well as world leaders. His depth of understanding and commitment to a lifetime of learning is uncommon in a world of short attention spans. We sit with Paul in this conversation to understand his current view of global conflicts and the trajectory that humanity finds itself on. Join us as we gain new understandings into the corners of geopolitics, the realities of a clean energy transition, building new leaders, and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow David on Twitter.Follow Paul on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:43 - Introduction to Dr. Paul Sullivan13:58 - The current state of Syria18:34 - Understanding the Middle East conflicts24:33 - Where is the US most vulnerable?27:13 - The challenges that China is facing29:33 - Why is the US supporting the one China policy?32:04 - Resources and conflicts - what are we missing?35:31 - What to do if you want to make a difference44:14 - Reaching breakthroughs in physics50:57 - The risk of complex technology56:05 - How do we prepare our children to become great...
7/19/2023 • 1 hour, 19 minutes, 46 seconds
SI252: From Crypto Sceptic to Crypto Adviser ft. Rob Carver
IL18: We Need to Talk About Inflation ft. Stephen King
HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King joins the show to discuss the most important long-term issue facing western economies: inflation. Stephen’s new book - We Need To Talk About Inflation - is an FT “book to read in 2023” for good reasons. He explains why inflation is not just about money creation, it also depends on public perceptions and the fatal temptation of governments to usurp central bank independence (what he calls the Richard Burton - Elizabeth Taylor rule). Stephen explains how to evaluate future inflation risks through his “4 Inflationary Tests” and we talk through how the US and Europe currently measure up.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:05 - Introduction to Stephen King and his book09:00 - The relationship between public behaviour and the supply of money13:21 - Can it be deflationary?17:12 - The Taylor Burton effect30:29 - The unfairness of inflation37:46 - Has the impact of inflation become worse over time?46:26 - Institutional changes and inflation bias51:04 - Is the radar still switched...
7/12/2023 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 39 seconds
SI251: A Deep Dive Into Models and Systems ft. Richard Brennan
GM46: An Emerging Market Boom of Epic Proportion ft. Louis-Vincent Gave
Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Louis on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack?10:40 - When is the recession coming?13:13 - The outlook for inflation18:36 - The problem with designification21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and China36:12 - An epic boom in emerging
GAL02: The Blind Spot of AI & UAPs ft. Izabella Kaminska & Dario Garcia Garner
There are few instincts sharper than those of a talented journalist. Izabella Kaminska, founder and editor of The Blind Spot, and her colleague Dario Garcia Giner have those instincts in spades. While still at the Financial Times, on December 10, 2021, Izabella penned a thought provoking article titled Do portfolios have a UAP risk?. Long before anyone was talking about UAP in the financial sector Izabella recognized that this taboo subject could impact markets and was worth paying attention to. That article led to research analyst Dario Garcia Giner reaching out and joining Izabella at The Blind Spot where they continue their work uncovering interesting and important corners of markets that remain overlooked. Listen in as we discuss with Izabella and Dario their perspectives on UAP, geopolitics, and the complexity of understanding and managing risk in a sci-fi like world.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on Twitter.Follow Izabella on Twitter.Follow The Blind Spot.Episode TimeStamps: 03:33 - What have UAPs even to do with finance?09:26 - When will UAPs become a common risk disclosure?15:59 - Who is Ryan Graves and why is he important?19:15 - Their reaction to Politico article by Chris Mellon26:20 - Classified...
6/28/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 32 seconds
SI249: Unfulfilled Expectations in 1st Half of 2023 ft. Mark Rzepczynski
GAL01: Galactic Macro...The New Investment Frontier ft. Jay Anderson
2023 is a year for the record books as world changing technologies such as AI once believed to be science fiction become science fact. The most exotic technologies, however, are thought to be related to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon and may also have an AI connection. At the vanguard of the new generation of UAP researchers is Jay Anderson. He kicks off our Galactic Macro series with David Dorr as they discuss the breathtaking disclosures coming out of the U.S. Pentagon and connect the dots to unraveling a mystery that may be as old as humanity itself. What will be revealed in the new physics displayed by UAP and documented by the world's best military signal intelligence systems? Has the U.S., Russia, China or anyone else made breakthroughs in physics that are not yet publicly known? Are we alone? The implications of what we discuss not only could impact every aspect of financial markets, they could impact every aspect of how we view our place in the universe.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow David on Twitter.Follow Jay and Project Unity on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:08 - Introduction to Jay Andersen and Project Unity 08:50 - The tipping point 20:51 - An ever-changing phenomenon 29:29 - Increasing encounters - why now? 37:41 - The importance of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base 42:25 - Evolving into a new human species 50:12 - Staying well prepared for new technology 55:30 - The Global Event...
6/21/2023 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 25 seconds
SI248: Trend Following, AI & Mastering Risk Management ft. Alan Dunne
SI247: What is Smart Diversification? ft. Nick Baltas
Today, Nick Baltas return to the show for a look at some recent published research papers by our friends over at Quantica and AQR. Despite our technical difficulties with my audio and notes...we discuss the timing and speed of executing trades and the pros and cons of trend following compared to stocks and bonds, how to achieve the best protection whilst maximizing returns during times of trouble in equities or higher interest rates and why short term strategies does not necessarily give you better protection, nor better returns. We also discuss the similarities and differences between trend following and economic trend and the importance of luck, why you get what you pay for in terms of manager performance and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:10 - What happened this week?03:24 - Industry performance update05:07 - Q1, David: About the speed of execution10:43 - Q2, Oliver: Trend following vs. stocks and bonds16:08 - A discussion on smart diversification22:21 - Shorter term strategies = more protection?25:22 - The role of lookback29:07 - Paper on economic trend36:16 - Trend following vs. economic trend45:18 - Withstanding the pain of long term trend following54:16 - Capping equity exposure56:08 - Is fee reduction alpha?01:02:01 - Does CTA replication models = single manager risk?01:04:04 - The problems with managed futures indexes01:07:54...
6/10/2023 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 45 seconds
GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse ft. Mika Kastenholz
Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Mika on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz09:25 - Working with econophysics10:52 - Finding the perfect size12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing13:19 - The macro perspective16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve18:46 - A changing environment21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past?33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased?35:31 - How does cross margining work today?36:51 - What...
6/7/2023 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 8 seconds
SI246: The BIG CTA ETF Debate ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Tim Pickering for a heated debate on some of the most important changes that we are seeing in the CTA industry. We discuss how ETFs can be used in the CTA industry and the pros and cons of using indices to represent manager performance, why Tim and Andrew are fundamentally different in how they approach the way retail investors can access CTA strategies and how they disagree on the definition of "pure alpha", the use of replication strategies and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:50 - The macro perspective03:56 - Industry performance update06:17 - First CTA to launch a ETF09:57 - The managed futures index - what and why?17:40 - Tim's experience with indices20:15 - Building an asset allocation bucket22:36 - A discussion on alpha30:58 - Getting exposure to CTA return streams37:10 - Why Tim would avoid replication strategies44:18 - The biggest positions drive performance?51:45 - Are ETFs reliable?55:47 - Getting the timing right01:00:49 - A terrible product?01:04:26 - Why did Tim's US ETF fail?01:08:07 - What is alpha?01:11:00 - Are lower fees better for investors?01:12:14 - Getting the correlation right01:13:21 - Question from Oliver01:15:59 - Teasing the next debate01:22:38 -...
6/3/2023 • 1 hour, 24 minutes, 56 seconds
ALO14: Investing for a Decade of Dispersion ft. Clint Stone
Today we are joined by Clint Stone SVP of Investments at the Larry H Miller Company to hear about running an endowment style investment approach at a family office. We discuss Clint’s approach to asset allocation which is focused on long term capital appreciation. A key pillar of the portfolio is a large allocation to private markets and we discuss the rationals for this. We delve into the foundation’s approach to portfolio construction, how to estimate the volatility of private markets exposures and discuss Clint’s belief that the volatility of a private market portfolio may even be lower than a corresponding public market portfolio. We also talk about the challenge of manager selection, what Clint looks for in managers and why he likes both market neutral long/short equity strategies and directional strategies like global macro and trend following in his absolute return portfolio.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Clint on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:48 - Introduction to Clint Stone07:07 - Their approach to investment12:12 - A challenging decade for equities?15:06 - Stone's perspective on equity valuations18:32 - Building a model and strategy23:04 - Modelling the risk of a private equity portfolio30:52 - Getting the correlation right34:14 - Correlation in economic downturns39:04 - Building a multi-asset strategy41:11 - Getting the speed...
TTU144: Turtle Trading 2.0? ft. Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors
Join us as we sit down with Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors, for an insightful conversation on the evolution of their trading methodology since the early days of the Turtle Program. Discover what sets them apart from competitors and the key factors they believe contribute to a successful CTA. Explore their use of algorithms to balance risk in a volatile market and how trading systems can adapt while staying true to their origins. Gain insights into their approach to managing current market volatility, distinguishing between trend following and momentum, building reliable systems, expanding their market portfolio, and much more. Don't miss this engaging discussion!-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about EMC Capital Advisors.Episode Timestamps:02:19 - Introduction to EMC Capital Advisors07:30 - Their investment philosophy10:30 - What differentiates them from their peers?12:33 - The key to succes14:06 - Their approach to open equity17:22 - Staying true to trend following20:13 - Improving the risk adjusted profile23:15 - An evolving system28:19 - Slow or fast?30:44 - Being aware of volatility32:44 - Trend following vs. momentum37:19 - "The technical logic of the system"40:05 - An adaptive process43:58 - How they reach their goals45:46...
5/22/2023 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 58 seconds
SI244: Trend Following - How to Hunt them & Select a Manager ft. Richard Brennan
This episode features a discussion with Martin Wolf, the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator and “the world’s preeminent financial journalist”. Wolf’s new book The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism explains why the marriage between democracy and capitalism is breaking down, not from external threats but from within. He expands on these internal threats during our conversation, which he believes have the potential to end US democracy in the coming years and in his book he outlines a range of critical reforms we can undertake to avoid this fate. You won't want to miss this thought-provoking conversation.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Martin on Twitter & Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Martin Wolf07:45 - Why do capitalism and democracy go so well together?14:46 - The conflicts between capitalism and democracy18:43 - Is the risk to democracy global?23:15 - A changed view after the election?27:29 - Making process in a divided country35:00 - A sign of desperation36:58 - Success takes small steps?44:35 - The importance of local democracies50:58 - Thanks for listening...
5/10/2023 • 54 minutes, 11 seconds
SI242: How to Detect when the Trend Changes ft. Mark Rzepczynski
SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas
Join us for a compelling conversation with Nick Baltas on the topic of trend following, where we explore the rising appetite for institutions to buy-the-dip in fixed income markets and how the SVB event has impacted liquidity. Discover if you can time trend following by adding additional signals to your model, the academic sceptisism of timeseries momentum as a strategy and why trend following goes beyond volatility scaling. We also delve into the scientific versus practical approach to trend following, and compare narratives of different investment approaches and how we may have to come up with a better one for trend following. Don't miss out on this insightful episode!-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:21 - Looking back on the week13:19 - Reflecting on the CTA series19:23 - The impact of the SVB event23:02 - Industry performance update24:39 - Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends35:08 - Two Critical Views on Trend Following40:15 - Time-series momentum: Is it there?43:28 - Defending trend following54:01 - The Role of Volatility...and what it predicts57:06 - The trend following narrative01:06:05 - Paper from Aspect Capital01:09:34 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK: Direction-of-Change Forecasting,
4/23/2023 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 24 seconds
IL16: False Narratives - A Path to a World of Conflict ft. Stephen Roach
Get ready for a thought-provoking conversation with Stephen Roach, former Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley and current Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center, as he delves into the deteriorating relationship between China and the US. With his new book "Accidental Conflict: America, China and the Clash of False Narratives", Stephen unravels the narratives that led to this new Cold War and provides a clear path towards interdependency and healthier economies. With his unique perspective and ability to reach policy makers on both sides, Stephen gives us an insight into the complexity of this relationship and how it can be mended. Don't miss out on this insightful discussion.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:38 - Introduction to Stephen Roach 07:37 - Why are false narratives so prevalent? 12:52 - Stephen's favorite false narrative 17:07 - A dangerous narrative 22:02 - A political backstep? 28:00 - A lack of telecom infrastructure 29:58 - The false narratives of China 40:47 - The fear of containment 45:27...
4/19/2023 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 25 seconds
TTU143: How to stay Sharpe ft. Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management
Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management joins us for a conversation on how pivoting to a rigorous scientific approach uncovered ways of better capturing trends in markets. We discuss his "alternative" view on Sharpe and why being a trend following CTA is not as easy as it might seem and how they break down conventional rules in markets to fix what is not working. We also uncover how Guillaume would approach manager selection if he was on the other side of the table and the pros and cons of trading alternative markets in China, how they make investors embrace trend following in their portfolio and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Metori Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:17 - Introduction to Metori Capital Management 04:08 - Their investment philosophy 09:47 - An alternative view on Sharpe 18:44 - Adding value to a trend following program 21:08 - Signal filtering and embedding correlations 24:46 - The better technique and right timeframe 27:35 - Selecting and changing parameters 30:18 - Their view on replication 32:50 - Advice on evaluating and selecting managers 35:48 - Benefiting from alternative markets 39:30 - The risk of alternative markets 41:29 - Looking beyond China 42:18 - Incorporating ESGs with alternative markets...
4/17/2023 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 23 seconds
SI239: CTAs Profits from Food Crisis...True or False? ft. Andrew Beer
GM39: The Secrets of a Natural Resource Speculator ft. Rick Rule
Join us for an insightful and personal conversation with Rick Rule, a renowned investor and speculator with decades of experience in sub $1,000,000,000 market capitalisation public and private issuers in natural resource industries. With a track record of structuring and leading numerous debt and equity issuances for resource companies worldwide, Mr. Rule shares his expertise on navigating the complexities of this unique market. As a sought-after speaker at investment conferences, he offers valuable insights into the natural resource industry's future and how to make informed investment decisions. In this episode, Mr. Rule discusses his personal investment philosophy as well as some of the wildest speculations that he has done in his career. Tune in for an engaging conversation with one of the industry's top experts.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Rick on Linkedin.Episode TimeStamps: 02:41 - Introduction to Rick Rule 04:16 - Financial experimentation and taking bets 16:35 - Commodities and the state of the economy 28:37 - Themes in resourcable markets 30:47 - Inflation - a political phenomenon? 38:57 - Are we seeing a change in ESGs? 44:26 - The pushback by the lower class 49:48 - Is owning gold becoming pointless? 56:14 - Central banks buying - a sign of demand? 01:00:40 - Finding convex ways to invest in gold 01:06:49 -...
4/12/2023 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 50 seconds
TTU142: The Contrarian ft. Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management
Buckle up for a fascinating conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, as he shares insights on managing a billion USD through short-term trading. Discover why he's chosen this approach and how he's overcome its challenges. You'll also gain valuable insights on human biases surrounding the Sharpe Ratio, the impact of an inverted yield curve on longer-term trend following strategies, and why Roy "has PTSD" from investing in the stock market. Dive deep into the drivers of short-term trading and learn why thinking like a trader is key to successful research. Plus, Roy offers a cautionary note on the dangers of machine learning. Don't miss this illuminating conversation!-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:16 - Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management03:46 - Their investment philosophy10:00 - A period of challenges13:26 - Believing in change15:45 - Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about?23:02 - Looking back in time30:42 - The role of short-term trading38:56 - What drives short-term trading?42:47 - Being smart with execution46:09 - Dealing with the downsides53:53 - Studying the markets55:49 - The dangers of machine learning58:41 - Capacity and liquidity in short-term...
GM38: Debt, Stagnation and Policy Responses ft. Barry Eichengreen
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economic and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley as we discuss what we can learn from economic history in the current volatile global macro environment. We discuss the uses and misuses of history and look at what history tells us about the policy response to the current strains in the banking system. We delve into Professor Eichengreen’s work on the long term outlook for the US dollar, the exorbitant privilege that the dollar’s reserve status bestows on the US and whether the Euro and the Chinese Renminbi are becoming credible alternatives to the dollar. We also discuss if rising public sector and private sector debt levels sustainable and whether the global economy has fully emerged from the period of secular stagnation which characterised the last decade.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Barry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:19 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen 08:17 - A potential misuse of history 11:26 - A lesson forgotten? 14:25 - Are things starting to break? 16:49 - A lesson learned 18:44 - Should we be concerned? 22:19 - Are crises inevitable? 24:32 - Is the dollar under threat? 30:10 - The need for safe assets 36:02 - The state of the Euro 39:39 - Making alliances 43:17 - A change in
4/5/2023 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 9 seconds
TTU141: The Alternative Trendfollower ft. Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court
Join us for an in-depth conversation with Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court, as we explore their unique approach to managing $2 billion in assets using a systematic trend following program focused on alternative markets. Discover how they navigate the current macro environment by prioritizing skew over the traditional Sharpe ratio, their process for uncovering new markets, and their strategies for managing risk and uncertainty during times of crisis. We dive deep into their trend following implementation and why it's essential not to become a "backtest junkie." Plus, learn why they steer clear of having money inside of China, despite trading Chinese markets and how the location of their office has impacted their work. Don't miss this enlightening discussion with another industry leader in the CTA space.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Florin Court.Episode Timestamps:02:46 - Discovering Florin Court's Trend Following Approach03:54 - The Macro Perspective: Understanding the Big Picture07:13 - Why Trend Following and Alternative Markets?15:55 - Skew Over Sharpe Ratio: A Different Way of Looking at Risk18:31 - Understanding Crisis Alpha: How Trend Following Shines in Turbulent Times22:27 - Accessing Individual Markets: The Hunt for Alpha29:20 - Navigating Risks in Alternative Markets33:39 - The Role of Macro Factors in Alternative Markets36:41 - From Niche to Mainstream: The Rise of...
4/3/2023 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 49 seconds
SI237: Trend Following During March Madness ft. Richard Brennan
Join us for an eye-opening conversation with Richard Brennan, as we explore the world of trend following and delve deep into the unusual moves in fixed income markets and its impact on trend following performance during a month of March Madness. Discover how the design of trend following strategies allow it to be “prepared” for unforeseen events without overcomplicating the investment approach, and find out why choosing the right strategy and manager is all about personal preference. Rich reveals the secrets behind "the lifting power" of trend following and shares insights on how to determine the right amount of trend following allocation. Plus, gain valuable knowledge on the protective properties of trend following, the best ways to evaluate strategies, and the risks of being a replicator versus being a manager. Don't miss out on this enlightening episode!-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:03:16 - What happened this week? 08:34 - Unusual moves15:16 - Reviewing the March Madness20:44 - Industry performance update22:05 - Being prepared for unexpected events27:17 - Keeping things simple30:29 - Correlation in your portfolio34:27 - Finding the right strategy and manager38:11 - The Good, the Bad & the Ugly side of the Sharpe Ratio49:27 - Tail hedge vs trend following allocation55:19 - Who's Sharpe should we be improving?01:02:39 - The Pros and Cons of being a Replicator01:12:15 -...
4/2/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 29 seconds
IL15: Preparing for a De-Globalized World ft. Rana Foroohar
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Rana Foroohar, global business columnist and author of "Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World". In this episode, Rana discusses the need for a localized economy to find a balance between the power of big government and large corporations. We explore how a prosperous, localized economy can be created by retethering wealth and place and talking about people and organizations that are already making it happen. From the problem with big food to the challenges of manufacturing and construction, Rana shares stories of people working on solutions and how additive manufacturing, localized production, and digital innovation can play a role in the future of our economy, and what the impact on inflation might be. Tune in to this fascinating discussion and gain new insights into the potential for a more resilient and balanced economy.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Rana on Twitter & read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:49 - Introduction to Rana Foroohar and her new book11:42 - What will the new world bring?17:01 - The problems with Big Food21:58 - The fascinating story about Molly Jahn?28:08 - A realistic solution?31:14 - A...
3/29/2023 • 1 hour, 11 seconds
TTU140: Why Trend Following is Smart Diversification ft. Bruno Gmür, Founder of Quantica
Get ready for an engaging conversation with Bruno Gmür, the Founder and CIO of Quantica Capital, as we explore their unique approach to systematic diversified trend following. Join us as we dive into the world of relative trend following and why volatility isn't always the right measure of risk. Bruno shares his insights on the challenges of estimating covariance matrices and expected returns during times of crisis, and how to create robust models to mitigate risk and prepare for market shocks. We'll also discuss why Quantica Capital no longer uses the term "crisis alpha" to promote their strategy and why trend following is much more complex than it may seem. Don't miss our discussion on the relationship between market liquidity and volatility as well as many more topics in this wide-ranging conversation.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Quantica Capital.Episode Timestamps:02:46 - Introduction to Quantica Capital05:04 - Their investment philosophy12:31 - What makes them unique?17:09 - Reacting to trends19:43 - Why not do it the easy way?23:33 - Looking Sharpe30:34 - When Correlations go to "1"35:12 - Dealing with shocks39:02 - The measurement methodologies43:14 - The role of correlation46:38 - Good research and potential pitfalls53:09 - Important discoveries55:26 - Making adjustments...
3/27/2023 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 48 seconds
SI236: New Opportunities in Volatility Trading ft. Cem Karsan
Join us for an insightful conversation with Cem Karsan as he sheds light on the current financial landscape, from the recent banking crashes to Central Bank Rate Hikes and Geo-Political developments. Discover the reasons behind the unprecedented moves in the volatility space and how they're impacting different strategies, including trend following. Cem shares his thoughts on the critical importance of positioning and why volatility strategies are currently facing tough times. We'll also delve into the potential consequences of a loss of confidence in central banks and their policies, including much higher bond yields. And don't miss our discussion on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election will impact economic policies in the months to come. Tune in to gain valuable insights from one of the sharpest minds in finance.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:03 - Reflecting on the current bank crashes 06:03 - The difficult situation for Powell 09:38 - The geopolitical perspective 12:38 - Surprises in the OpEx 18:03 - Weekly update 20:24 - The volatility winter27:05 - Vol strategies in the equity space30:38 - How volatility funds are finding it hard to make money at the moment? 36:11 - Are vol strategies on a downfall? 44:15 - A loss of confidence in Central Banks48:09 - What are the signs to look for? 50:55 - The U.S election...and how it will affect economic policies54:11 - The U.S debt...
3/25/2023 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 58 seconds
IL14: Is India Broken? - The Dangerous Equilibrium of Indian Society ft. Ashoka Mody
This is an episode for those who want to hear an alternative view of the world's largest country. McKinsey has said we are living in the “Indian Century”. Morgan Stanley believes 20 percent of global growth in the next decade will come from India. Our guest today, Princeton economist Ashoka Mody, has a different view, which he details in his new book: “India Is Broken”. He argues that there are two Indias, a successful, highly skilled and educated elite and a billion-plus population that remains very poor. Mody believes that this dangerous equilibrium is maintained by a close link between the government, big business and, in some cases, organized crime. This association produces projects that attract capital and headlines but leaves an employment deficit of over 100 million jobs.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Ashoka on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 04:14 - Introduction to Ashoka Mody 10:19 - The development path of East Asia 14:41 - The path that India did not take 19:32 - The path they did take 23:37 - Different versions of India 30:37 - What is Hindutva? 34:09 - The Guljurat model of development...
3/22/2023 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 56 seconds
TTU139: The Benefits of Alternative Markets ft. Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton
Today, we are joined by Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton for a conversation on how they use quantitative investment strategies and statistical research to generate alpha. We discuss how the characterization of Crisis Alpha has the potential to be misleading and why the speed of your trading should be determined by your objective, their process of discovering new ideas through research and the pitfalls of relying too heavily on automation. We also discuss how they stay diversified through alternative market selection, why it is important to look beyond volatility when assessing risk and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Winton Group.Episode Timestamps:02:18 - Introduction to Winton 05:05 - Their investment philosophy 09:25 - Where does opportunities arise? 10:18 - What caused them to reduce emphasis on Trend a few years ago? 13:48 - Too concerned about Sharpe? 16:39 - The value of Crisis Alpha 20:09 - Changing the trend following narrative 22:41 - What about the non-trend? 25:22 - Need for speed? 27:49 - Their research process 31:19 - Accessing big events in markets 35:00 - The pros and cons of machine learning 38:16 - Trading and selecting parameters 42:23 - The risks of CTA replication 44:57 - More markets = better?...
3/20/2023 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 49 seconds
SI235: Trend Following's Reaction to SVB Collapse ft. Mark Rzepczynski
GM37: SPR - The Federal Reserve of Oil ft. Rory Johnston
Today we are re-joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We cover the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) that has been actively deployed by the Biden administration over the past year, its implementation and potential impact on related economies. To what extent can the SPR influence spot and futures prices, and what are the knock on effects on refined products? What is the interaction between the SPR, commercial inventories and prices? Rory also discusses the analogy between SPR sales and Fed policy, as it influences the yield curve. We also discuss the relationship between oil volatility and the crack spread, and how volatility is generally damaging but can boost profits in proprietary oil trading books. Finally, Rory challenges the assertion that speculators are the "smart money" in energy, and how positioning can act as a counter trend indicator.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Rory on TwitterEpisode TimeStamps: 03:19 - SPR - What and why? 06:27 - Why crude and not refined products? 09:34 - How is the SPR used? 13:54 - Trading oil 19:54 - The goal of the SPR market 23:04 - How inventory drives oil price 28:29 - The effect of inventory restocking 29:43 - Theory vs. practice 33:28 - The mega energy companies 36:00 - Distortion in oil markets 41:20 - Can...
3/15/2023 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 42 seconds
TTU138: Need for Speed in Trendfollowing ft. Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager at PIMCO
Today, we are joined by Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager within the Quantitative Strategies group at PIMCO, for a conversation how they manage 60 billion dollars through different quant strategies, of which app. $5bn is in Trend Following. We discuss their process of constructing portfolios using a defensive approach and how they manage to simultaneously maintain a high Sharpe, keep a balance between long and short trades and how they use tail "hedging" in their design of the strategy. We also discuss why they believe having a broad universe of markets is key and why they see a big potential in exotic markets, why they believe it is better to trade faster as a trend follower when markets are liquid enough, their process of measuring the expected returns and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about PIMCOEpisode Timestamps:02:28 - Introduction to PIMCO 05:11 - Their investment philosophy 11:11 - Too concerned about the Sharpe? 14:53 - A different Speed of trend following 18:13 - Building a defence against equity drawdowns22:32 - Balancing the opposing forces 25:45 - A different approach to volatility correlation? 27:06 - Using machine learning 28:04 - The role of bonds 31:34 - The larger portfolio perspective33:07 - Their research process 36:53 - Number of markets 39:01 -...
3/13/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 59 seconds
SI234: Trend Followers are minnows, not whales ft. Rob Carver
Today, I'm joined by Rob Carver for the weekly trend following conversation, where we reflect on the takeaways from the CTA series and the performance of the year so far. We discuss parameter and markets selection through research and testing and why Rob dislikes stops in moving average systems, what happens if a brokerage firm fails. We also discuss why you have to be cautious when using dynamic position sizing and Rob’s advice for using backtesting, how articles from big financial media often creates a false or skewed narrative in the way they present data and information, why adding a lot of instruments to your portfolio is not as good an idea as it might seem. And finally we discuss Rob's latest article in the Financial Times and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA series 04:57 - Performance update 09:59 - Q1, Gene: Question about underfitting and overfitting 16:47 - Q2, James: What types of stops are commonly used in moving average systems? 18:49 - Q3, Chris: How far back do you go in backtesting? 22:20 - Q4.1, Kyle: What happens if an FCM goes belly up? 26:37 - Q4.2, Kyle: Questions regarding "Following the Trend" by Andreas Clenow39:22 - Applying a commission rate for your backtest 44:22 - Q5.1, Matthijs: The optimal moment to roll a contract? 46:14 - Q5.2, Matthijs: View on adding a defensive strategy to a multi-strat CTA? 47:52 - Q5.3,...
3/11/2023 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 53 seconds
GM36: Galactic Macro, UFOs & Balloon Encounters ft. David Dorr
What are some of the key takeaways when you marry global financial markets with potentially extraterrestrial influences? Global Macro investor David Dorr, has taken on that conversation. As government and national security services have begun to declassify information around UFOs, David is exploring the edge of what people are starting to talk about but financial markets haven’t yet embraced. Energy, defense, travel, technology, are points of influence in this conversation. Then there’s what Lockheed Martin may be sitting on that could be a real game changer. David has been following this line of research for quite awhile and feels that things are just now starting to break loose. David Dorr is the Managing Principal at Dorr Asset Management SEZC and has more than 25 years experience in trading, global macroeconomics, risk management and trading technology.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:36 - Introduction to David 05:43 - A touchy subject 12:48 - The Tic Tac incident 19:37 - The Navy ships incident 24:17 - What is Area 51? 27:03 - What happened in Mosul, Iraq? 28:29 - The New York Times article 30:41 - Who is Bob Lazar and why is he important? 34:40 - Connections in the UFO network 38:40 - Alfred O'Donnell & EE&G 41:50 - Are they saving us from ourselves? 43:20 - From rockstar to...
3/8/2023 • 1 hour, 22 minutes, 41 seconds
TTU137: A new approach to Entering Trends ft. David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners
Today, we are joined by David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners, for a conversation on how they use trend following to achieve a multi-billion dollar portfolio. We discuss how to become a better trend follower by understanding the weaknesses of the strategy and their approach to produce positive alpha, the challenge of timing trend following and how they focus on the conceptual trend without giving up the skew and how the "dark" 10-year period has affected their approach to volatility. We also discuss how they manage risk in an uncertain environment and the state of liquidity, whether trend following has a limit in terms of capacity and much more.DG Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the FCA and only provides services to professional clients as defined under the FCA rules.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about DG Partners.Episode Timestamps:02:08 - Introduction to DG Partners 03:38 - Their road to trend following 12:13 - The weaknesses of trend following 16:00 - Too concerned about Sharpe? 19:10 - The dual mandate 22:51 - The trend following narrative 27:19 - Capturing the meat of trend following 30:24 - Need for speed? 38:13 - How many markets do they trade? 40:16 - Rethinking volatility? 43:01 - Their execution process 44:00 - Their view on CTA replication 47:39 - Risk
3/6/2023 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 39 seconds
SI233: The Market Impact of CTAs & Trend Followers ft. Alan Dunne
TTU136: Trend Following... C'est la vie ft. Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management
Today, we are joined by Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management (CFM), for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their investment strategy. We discuss their research on how trend following has performed historically and how they use the data in their trading and the role trend following play in their portfolio construction. We also discuss the right way of doing research when it comes to quant based strategies and how they differentiate themselves from other trend followers, how they keep risk stable and forecast gaps in markets, how you should use trend following in a multi-asset portfolio and how they estimate capacity, the risk of investing in a replicator strategy and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Capital Fund Management.Episode Timestamps:02:05 - Introduction to Capital Fund Management 05:32 - Their investment philosophy 12:27 - Periods of under-performance 19:13 - Trend following - a small piece?24:58 - Do Trend Followers have a dual mandate? 31:32 - Their research process 36:22 - Enhancing a trend program 37:46 - Using machine learning 40:47 - Different types of trend followers 46:56 - Controlling the risk 51:20 - Dealing with drawdowns 54:44 - Achieving convexity 57:03 - Looking in hindsight 00:58:26 -...
3/3/2023 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 55 seconds
GM35: The Drivers of the Commodity Markets ft. Nicky Ferguson
Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Nicky on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science 09:42 - The major players in the energy markets 12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial 18:43 - Forecasting the flow 25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas? 27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets 30:22 - Risk considerations 32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action 34:28 - Measuring demand 36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research 39:46 - Oil on water supply vs land supply 41:33 - The...
3/1/2023 • 56 minutes, 22 seconds
TTU135: Moving Beyond Pure Price Trends ft. Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management
Today, we are joined by Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management, for a conversation on how they use systematic tools like trend following, to take advantage of inefficiencies in markets. We discuss the pros and cons of risk premia strategies and how they manage to improve the Sharpe ratio while making sure the "dual" mandate is fulfilled, how they have moved beyond pure price trends as part of the evolution of their trend programs. We also discuss the process of building a trend following strategy and why they prefer to build models rather than mimic a strategy through linear regression, their approach to adding alternative markets to their portfolio, why they are always concerned about capacity and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about AQR Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:50 - Introduction to AQR 04:12 - Their investment philosophy 08:47 - Risk premia strategies 11:55 - A historical perspective 13:55 - Too focused on Sharpe? 22:24 - Changing the narrative 30:41 - Being unconventional 35:13 - Getting comfortable with the data 39:22 - The future for economical trend following 42:55 - Their research process 47:05 - The managed futures space 48:39 - Pricing trend following 55:00 - The need for daily liquidity 57:32 - The portfolio construction...
2/27/2023 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 25 seconds
SI232: Trend Following the Trend Followers ft. Nick Baltas
TTU134: Crisis Alpha Revisited ft. Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group
Today, we are joined by Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group, for a conversation on how they approach managed futures and trend following in their programs. We discuss how they work together with their clients to find the right solution for them and why it is important to understand the true meaning of Crisis Alpha, why commodities play a crucial role in times of crises and the key components of managing major disrupting events like COVID19. We also discuss why you might want an equity aware strategy, how they use machine learning to be more precise and prepared for moves in markets, how macro uncertainty impacts managed futures and trend following and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about AlphaSimplex Group.Episode Timestamps:02:01 - Introduction to AlphaSimplex Group03:03 - Their Investment Philosophy08:02 - Too concerned about Sharpe?13:42 - How do you customize pure trend?16:10 - Crisis Alpha - the true meaning explained22:24 - The role of commodities in crises26:22 - A need for speed?32:20 - Capping the equity beta39:36 - Their approach to CTA replication44:59 - Machine learning as a research tool48:30 - Simple vs. sophisticated50:02 - CTA style factors56:16 - All about bonds?59:00 - An uncertain world01:02:38
2/24/2023 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 23 seconds
TTU133: How to deliver Convexity ft. Nigol Koulajian & Mike Harris of Quest Partners
Today, we are joined by Nigol Koulajian and Mike Harris from Quest Partners, for a conversation on how they use a research driven, quantitative and systematic trading approach to generate alpha. We discuss how they generate convexity and why they have chosen to focus on short-term time frames, why they believe some investors have become too focused on Sharpe and how they use trend following and crowding in their process. We also discuss how they use an adaptive learning technique to understand markets whilst being aware of the dangers of machine learning, the power and importance of data and the potential risks of replicating managers, why liquidity is dynamic and very unpredictable and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Quest Partners.Episode Timestamps:02:08 - Introduction to Quest Partners 03:34 - Their investment philosophy 07:35 - A structural change in markets 15:04 - Too focused on Sharpe? 20:55 - Creating momentum 24:18 - A move toward multi-strat? 37:35 - Managing the crowd 39:13 - The persistency of market environments 41:45 - A type of machine learning? 44:12 - The source of opportunities 48:34 - The "D" word 53:30 - Thoughts on CTA replication 01:00:12 - Being a short term manager 01:02:30 - Liquidity issues and changes in markets...
2/20/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 48 seconds
SI231: The Perfect Fit for Trend Following ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us to reflect on the learnings so far from the new CTA series. We also discuss how to set your stop loss when entering a new position and why you should not allow your trend models to go "backwards", how to fit your model to price data and why it is important to understand the signal to noise ratio in your trading to avoid overfitting. Additionally, we discuss how random entries can work for your models, but why they are not truely random and the challenge of separating luck from real signal, why it is preferable to have an under-fit model as opposed to an over-fit model when developing a trend following system and how to reduce your chances of having an overfit solution. We round off our conversation discussing why trend following is not as easy as it might seem and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:03:17 - Reflecting on the CTA Series 09:55 - What happened this week? 12:42 - Q1, Jordan: Regarding setting stop loss when entering a position 15:39 - Q2, Mark: Entry lookback vs exit lookback? 19:23 - Signal to noise masterclass 36:03 - The Tom Basso experiment 46:34 - The challenges of creating models 52:40 - Avoiding overfit - Don't pick the "best" parameters57:23 - Avoiding overfit - Apply the Golden Rules01:00:19 - Using visual mapping 01:03:50 - Avoiding overfit - trade multiple markets01:07:34 - Trend Following is not easy 01:14:04 - The...
2/19/2023 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 56 seconds
TTU132: Trend Following Evolution ft. Ed Tricker, CIO of Quant Strategies at Graham Capital Management
Today, we are joined by Dr. Edward Tricker, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Strategies at Graham Capital Management, joined Top Traders Unplugged for a discussion on Graham's approach to quantitative macro investing. The discussion touches on a variety of interesting topics including the evolution of trend-following, diversification, portfolio optimization, and "crisis alpha." Dr. Tricker also discusses how Graham partners with investors to help them solve for their specific portfolio needs, as well as why collaboration is critical in his team’s research process and the firm's risk management philosophy.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Graham Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:16 - Introduction to Graham Capital Management04:00 - Their investment philosophy09:35 - The art of modelling12:33 - Too concerned about Sharpe?17:14 - Working together with clients20:17 - The "real" objective23:22 - Commodities - A saver in crises?27:32 - What strategies to add in a 60/40?32:54 - Their research process37:28 - Evaluating managers and strategies40:20 - Regime shifts and changes in markets44:11 - Recalibrating parameter selection48:34 - Their approach to look-back and signal generation54:01 - Static vs. dynamic position sizing59:03...
2/17/2023 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 11 seconds
GM34: When Geopolitics meets Global Macro ft. Jacob Shapiro & Roger Hirst
Today we are joined by Jacob Shapiro and Roger Hirst. Jacob is the Geopolitics Editor at financial media company Lykeion, co-author of a monthly research publication focused on the converging worlds of Geopolitics and Macro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, and Founder and Chief Strategist of the business and political risk consulting firm Perch Perspectives. Roger is the Macro Editor at financial media company Lykeion and the Managing Editor of Real Vision Creative Studios. Together they provide a powerhouse of insights into the machinations of geopolitics and macroeconomics. Key in this conversation are Jacob’s and Roger’s insights into China and whether China has the capacity to influence global growth going forward. In our conversation we explore the possibility and probability of deglobalization and what that might mean. In addition Roger and Jacob turn the spotlight on Latin America and the potential it holds given the current geopolitical and macroeconomic constraints the world is facing. Join us in this deep dive into what lies behind and beneath these pressing issues.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Roger on Twitter.Follow Jacob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:42 - Introduction to Shapiro & Hirst 09:22 - Where lies the uncertainty? 11:01 - The ultimate impact on markets 15:32 - Reflecting on Peter Zeihan's work 25:17 -...
2/15/2023 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 43 seconds
TTU131: How CTAs manage their Cash ft. Mike Kastner, Principle & Co-Founder at Halyard Asset Management
Today, we are joined by Mike Kastner, Principle and Co-Founder at Halyard Asset Management, for a conversation on how they use fixed income instruments to manage the cash of many CTA portfolios. We discuss how managers have evolved in terms of the way they manage cash, how Halyard Asset Management construct a portfolio from a liquidity point of view and the current state of liquidity, how they approach credit rating and why they avoid buying paper from certain banks. We also unpack what they think the sweet spot for foreign exchange hedging is and how they approach risk management, why Kastner does not believe we are approaching a recession and that there is a likely chance of a significant fall in the long bond price, as well as what Kastner believes will happen in the housing market and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about Halyard Asset Management.Episode Timestamps:02:40 - Introduction to Halyard Asset Management 04:12 - History of Cash Management 07:16 - What happened with money market funds? 09:34 - Has the Cash Management space changed? 11:02 - Cash Management philosophy 12:23 - A liquid portfolio 17:39 - Drawing the safety line 19:25 - Considering ESGs 21:11 - Managing cash in different currencies 22:41 - Balancing the mandates 23:52 - Managing risk 25:44 - Thinking about expected returns...
2/13/2023 • 47 minutes, 46 seconds
SI130: Trend Following in the Age of Disconnect ft. Mark Rzepczynski
TTU130: Trend Following Solutions ft. Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital
Today, we are joined by Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital, for a conversation on their systematic investment process, with a primary focus on research. We discuss why bias is a core element of Aspect Capitals investment philosophy, the essence of trend and why trend strategies work, as well as how they work together with their investors to create the most optimal portfolio for them. We also explore Lueck's analogy of trend as "medicine" and why it is important to give the medicine time to do its work. We continue with topics such as how trend following as a strategy has evolved over time and how they feel about the newest CTA replication products, their reasoning for being cautious about using machine learning and, why they chose not to dwell too much on fees, how they guide their clients when it comes to return expectations and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Aspect CapitalEpisode Timestamps:02:57 - Introduction to Aspect Capital 06:54 - Their Investment Philosophy 09:56 - Why does trend strategies work? 13:12 - A less uncertain period 15:44 - Too concerned about the sharpe? 20:38 - Which trends are most popular? 23:01 - Costumization - is there a limit? 28:58 - Staying diversified and improving models 34:33 - The research process 37:29 - A change in models? 40:15 - CTA Replication - good or bad idea?...
2/10/2023 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 33 seconds
GM33: Drilling into the Oil Market ft. Rory Johnston
Today we are joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We talk about Rory’s in-depth research focused on the oil sector, as well as the current narratives impacting the price of oil right now. We discuss his deep dives into the workings of the oil industry, focused on adding a broader perspective to price assumptions and market fluctuations. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdown, Rory shares his reflections on diverse market responses to geopolitical events around the world. Is there going to be a big energy demand from China going forward? What is it going to take to stabilize oil prices? How does inflation factor in? Join us on this fascinating exploration of the role oil plays, and the variables that can change the trajectory of the energy market.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Rory on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:31 - Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context07:15 - Are people over-fixated on data?09:04 - Is Geopolitical analysis useless?16:43 - Making assumptions19:38 - The challenges with data28:36 - Indicators of volatility32:26 - Quantifying the fundamental value37:02 - Having an edge in oil45:27 - Understanding the CRT Report49:17 - Oil price - a play on the dollar?52:27 - An indicator for the state of the...
2/8/2023 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 52 seconds
TTU129: Trend Following Nordic Style ft. Svante Bergström, CEO & Founding Partner of LYNX Asset Management
Today, we are joined by Svante Bergström, Founding Partner and CEO of Lynx Asset Management, for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their trading strategy, through the use of a multi-strat approach. We discuss why they believe trend following will continue to work for the next hundred years and how they ensure a good balance between achieving a high Sharpe while maintaining the trend following profile, what they have learned from 2022 and how they used diversifying models and machine learning to profit in 2022, their process of finding new models and replacing the ones that do not work and why they are sceptical about the returns from CTA replication. We also discuss the number of markets they prefer to trade, how they manage risk and what you should pay attention to when evaluating managers, their approach to capacity and fees and their process of finding new talent in the industry, how they implement ESGs in their work and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about LYNXEpisode Timestamps:02:18 - Introduction to LYNX 04:11 - How did they settle on trend following? 09:08 - A painful ride? 11:09 - Too focused on sharpe? 14:04 - What stood out in 2022? 16:17 - The dual mandate 18:10 - The benefits of diversifying strategies 20:08 - Why machine learning? 24:31 - The flipside of diversifying strategies 28:32 - The process of replacing...
2/6/2023 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 6 seconds
SI229: Managed Futures - The Ultimate Diversification Tool? ft. Andrew Beer
TTU128: Trend Following for Life ft. Marty Bergin, President of DUNN Capital Management
Today, we are joined by Marty Bergin, President of DUNN Capital Management, for a conversation on how and why they have continued to focus on Trend Following as their core investment strategy. We discuss the challenges of improving upon trend following and if it's possible to deliver it with a high Sharpe Ratio, what differentiates DUNN Capital from other trend followers and how they use research to stay well prepared. We also dig into their approach to trading futures and determining trends and where they see the weaknesses of trend following strategies, why they choose to look at the overall portfolio when managing the risk and why they think portfolio replication can be problematic. We also discuss how they manage risk and why they prefer to reside in the medium to long term when it comes to trend following, how they approach capacity and fees and why they choose to trade using a human touch rather than automated execution, what returns are achievable from trend following and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about DUNN Capital ManagementEpisode Timestamps:02:31 - Introduction to DUNN Capital Management 05:02 - Why Trend Following? 07:35 - What differentiates DUNN Capital Management? 12:06 - Hitting the right balance 14:34 - Reflecting on the performance in 2022 18:43 - The speed of systems 22:28 - Their research process 25:36 - Trading futures and determining trends 28:08 -...
2/3/2023 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 15 seconds
IL13: A Biography of the Dollar ft. Perry Mehrling
Today, Perry Mehrling, Economist and internationally recognized expert on our monetary system, joins us to talk about his new book: “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System”. Perry’s book is a “biography of the dollar” told through the life “Charlie” Kindleberger, an economist who helped craft the Marshall Plan and spent his life studying and writing about the best way to organize international money. We discuss why Charlie thought the world needs a “key currency” and how the Fed - reluctantly and slowly - grew to support the dollar as it took on that role. Perry explains why the dollar system has proved so resilient. We finish the talk with an examination of two of the Fed’s most important tools - QE and swap lines and discuss why one supports the system while the other might undermine it. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Perry on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:27 - Introduction to Perry Mehrling and Charles Kindleberger 10:03 - What is the Sterling System? 15:01 - Establishing a central bank 23:35 - The impact of World War 2 31:32 - What does it take to...
2/1/2023 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 2 seconds
TTU127: Trend Following L.A. Style ft. Ryan O' Grady, Co-Founder & CEO at ROW Asset Management
Today, we are joined by Ryan O’ Grady, CEO and Co-Founder of ROW Asset Management, for a conversation on their all-weather, multi-strat approach to investing. We discuss the philosophy behind their trading strategy and why they choose to think holistically, why limiting yourself to trend following is a disadvantage and how they balance between simplicity and complexity in their research process, what they believe is the right number of markets to trade and how they diversify their portfolio. We also discuss what the pros and cons of replication are and how their work sets them apart from other trend followers, how they manage risk and mitigate drawdowns, how they succeed to run a multi asset portfolio and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Row Asset ManagementEpisode Timestamps:02:23 - Introduction to ROW Asset Management05:18 - Their investment philosophy and objective11:43 - Should we worry about our sharpe?16:31 - What to expect from pure trend20:04 - Their research process24:00 - Making changes to the system26:40 - Their thoughts on machine learning28:53 - New areas for research30:52 - How many markets should you trade?35:18 - Their thoughts on replication38:49 - The risk of replication42:02 - Managing drawdowns45:16 - How they use trend following46:46 -...
1/30/2023 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 49 seconds
SI228: Are Markets Priced for Perfection? ft. Alan Dunne
TTU126: Trend Following + Something ft. Kevin Cole, CEO & CIO at Campbell & Co.
Today, we are joined by Kevin Cole, CEO and CIO at Campbell & Co, for a conversation on their approach to using trend following in their trading, with a focus on absolute return. We discuss their investment philosophy and the evolution of their expanded trading strategy, how they moved beyond pure trend using equities and how they use a multi-strat approach to stay diversified. We also discuss how they feel about being replicated and how they use their research process to keep an edge over their competitors, how they capture the underlying momentum factors of trend and how they implement ESG in their trading strategy. Lastly, we discuss how they approach risk management and position sizing, their view on capacity and fees in the industry and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about CampbellEpisode Timestamps:02:07 - Introduction to Campbell & Co03:53 - Their investment philosophy06:07 - The objectives of their work08:37 - Moving beyond trend following12:27 - Their approach to trading equities15:11 - Staying diversified19:59 - Using constraints 21:54 - Thoughts on replication26:45 - What is a good research process?31:46 - Balancing the adaptability36:23 - Trading more markets = better?41:47 - Dealing with ESGs47:02 - Their risk management process 51:46 -...
1/27/2023 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 26 seconds
IL12: How to Invest ft. David Rubenstein
Today, Kevin Coldiron is joined by the legendary David Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Carlyle Group, philanthropist, historian and more, for a conversation on what we can learn from his journey to become a billion dollar investor, based on his book, “How To Invest”. We discuss what Rubenstein learned from his work as a lawyer and what young, aspiring investors can learn from his book, why it is important to work with something you love to do and why investors are an important part of society. We also discuss how great results require great risk and how becoming a successful investor requires a balance between luck, skill and risk, how to evaluate successful firms like Carlyle Group and the role philanthropists play in society, the economic inequality in America and why taxing the wealth is not a way to solve it, why Rubenstein believes ESGs are here to stay and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow David on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to David Rubinstein07:02 - From lawyer to investor11:48 - What inspired the book?16:32 - Is capitalism going out of fashion?18:43 - The path to becoming an investor25:11 -...
1/25/2023 • 57 minutes, 54 seconds
TTU125: Trend Following vs Short Term ft. Michael Pomada, President & CEO at Crabel Capital Management
Today, we are joined by President and CEO of Crabel Capital Management, Michael Pomada, for a talk on their approach to trend following as well as short-term strategies. We discuss the trading philosophy behind Crabel Capital Management and why they choose to primarily be long vol, what role the Sharpe Ratio plays in their trading strategy and how they use data in their research process to understand markets, how being de-siloed helped them to make 2022 their best year in terms of research and how they create the most optimal work environment and culture for their team. How they utilize machine learning in their work and why they spend tens of millions of dollars on execution infra-structure, why they believe replication is like drugs and medication and why ESGs are important for them as a firm, how they manage drawdown control and mitigate risk. Lastly, we discuss why Pomada has found peace with fees going down and why being innovative is key in maintaining a solid income, why they are not concern about competition in the industry and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Crabel Capital ManagementEpisode Timestamps:02:20 - Introduction to Crabel Capital Management03:41 - The philosophy behind their work08:46 - Their trading objectives11:21 - Too concerned about the sharpe?14:28 - Better alternatives to sharpe?16:43 - Unearthing the anomalies22:49 - Creating the perfect environment26:34 - Machine
1/23/2023 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 42 seconds
SI227: Trend Following in an Uncertain World ft. Richard Brennan
TTU124: Trend Following with a Twist ft. Harold de Boer, Managing Director at Transtrend
Today, we are joined by Harold de Boer, Head of R&D and Managing Director at Transtrend, for a conversation on their unique approach to trend following. We discuss the investment philosophy at Transtrend and what makes them stand out against other investors, why markets trend and what history can teach us about trend following, how the war in Ukraine impacts markets and how Transtrend stays diversified. We also discuss why Transtrend has not deviated from trend and the importance of differentiating yourself, why de Boer believes computers have been become a disadvantage and why de Boer does not think trading more markets is always better. Lastly, we discuss Transtrend’s approach to pricing their work and why they think ESG’s have become a “strange thing”, what de Boer is most excited for in 2023 and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about TranstrendEpisode Timestamps:02:27 - Introduction to Transtrend03:47 - The investment philosophy17:55 - Being unconventional21:27 - Pure trend following vs. Trend following plus29:25 - What is the investment objective?32:53 - Developing and evaluating systems37:34 - Human + computer = better than computer?40:34 - Weaknesses of CTA replication strategies47:17 - Is trading more markets better?51:54 - Managing risk and liquidity concerns56:06 - Diversification strategies and...
1/20/2023 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 41 seconds
GM32: Commodity Super Cycle in Full Force ft. Jeff Currie
In this episode, Cem and Niels are joined by Jeff Currie, Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on the shifts in global natural resources that we are witnessing right now. We discuss how the focus on de-carbonization has impacted the economy and why the low income group is actually the key driver of inflation, why Currie believes markets are set up for a recession in 2023 and how the war in Ukraine causes disruptions in energy infrastructure. We also discuss why OPEC has risen to power again and what drives the oil prices, why we might run out of metals in the near future, why boycotting Russian oil is a climate paradox and what might be the solution to the energy crisis, how the underinvestment in carbon creates a ripple effect in multiple other sectors, why Currie believes renewable energy might not be the right solution to the energy crisis, how to profit from the commodity super cycle and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:35 - Introduction to Jeff Currie04:18 - A new kind of inflation?08:41 - Policy and what drives inflation15:41 - The outlook for the demand side22:45 - Short term position and the commodity space28:11: - Disruptions in infrastructure31:17 - The rise of OPEC33:32 - Status on the strategic oil reserve34:20 - Volatility in oil39:45 - Are we running out of metal?44:12 - The situation with gas48:15 - What is the solution?50:12 -...
1/18/2023 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 12 seconds
TTU123: Trend Following Master Class ft. Russell Korgaonkar, CIO at Man AHL
In this first episode of the new mini series with the largest and most successful trend followers in the world, we are joined by Russell Korgaonkar, CIO at Man AHL, for a conversation on how Man AHL uses trend following in their trading strategy. We discuss the philosophy behind their work and why they believe trend following is a great strategy, as well as what makes Man AHL stand out to investors and how they make trend following more digestible while maintaining "crisis alpha". We also discuss Korgaonkar’s view on CTA replication and their process of improving their trend following system and models, why having a good execution system is important for enabling different sources of alpha and why they use dynamic position sizing to maximize their returns, how they overcome periods of drawdowns and how you price your work as a CTA, how much you should allocate to trend and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Man AHLEpisode Timestamps:00:00 - Intro02:22 - Introduction to Man AHL03:45 - Their trading strategy06:18 - Why does trend following work?10:11 - A unique type of trend following?15:46 - A trade-off in the objectives19:14 - The effect of adding carry21:13 - Picking from the strategy menu?22:46 - Too much focus on Sharpe?24:33 - Replication - yay or nay?29:54 - Have the models become outdated?35:55 -...
1/16/2023 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 28 seconds
SI226: Trend Following - the Do's & the Dont's ft. Rob Carver
IL11: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise ft. Susan Shirk
Today, Susan Shirk, Professor and expert in the US/China relationship and Chinese politics, joins us for a conversation on China’s rise to power, based on her new book, “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise”. We discuss Susan’s research process and what laid the foundation for the book, the evolution of the control regime in China and how China has been taking things too far, how corruption affects Chinese politics and how Xi Jinping’s attempt to purge the corruption has led to an over compliance and bandwagoning. We also discuss how China’s strict Covid19 policies has led to nationwide protests and major frustration in the population, how China derailed from its peaceful rise, how they may be able to get back on track and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Susan on Twitter & read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:31 - Introduction to Susan and her work08:07 - What is the 21st Century China Center?10:37 - Why did Susan write the book?16:27 - How did the overreach begin?24:58 - Purging a corrupt system31:36 - Examples of derailed politics37:25 - Dealing with Covid19...
SI224: 2022 the Perfect Year for Trend Followers? (TTU Group Part 1)
Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for a group conversation on trend following and Volatility, leading up to the end of 2022. We discuss the possibility that the carry regime has ended and why 2022 was such a great year for trend following, why “the grind” has been so influential this year and why volatility strategies has been performing different than expected, and how CTAs performance compares to bonds. We also discuss how the volatility market is changing in the coming years and why you need to be active with your hedges, what the TTU team has learned from 2022 and why you have to be open to imagine the unimaginable, what the future might hold for the Crypto space and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:14 - Q1, Zach: Have we seen the end of the carry regime? And what are the indicators?14:16 - The perfect year for trend following?25:52 - The wrong kind of volatility?31:04 - Trend vs. Tail Hedge43:04 - What is happening with volatility? 50:38 - What did we learn from the year 2022?01:00:40 - The future of Crypto01:11:37 - Coming up
12/24/2022 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 20 seconds
GM31: The Art of Volatility Investing ft. Dave Dredge
Today, Dave Dredge, CIO at Convex Strategies, returns for a conversation on volatility investing and why he believes the 60/40 portfolio is wrong. We discuss why big pension funds have been suffering major losses and what Dave means by living in a “Sharpe World”, self-organized criticality and how Central Banks have been handling inflation, the relationship between volatility and liquidity and importance of understanding the timeframe that you are trading within. We also discuss how Dave uses asymmetry to stay prepared for the future and the pointlessness of forecasting, how constructing an investment portfolio is like a football match and how Dave’s racing car analogy can help you become a better investor, cheap vs. expensive volatility and the importance of convexity, what the future might hold for volatility and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Dave on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:00 - About Dave and his work06:04 - Are big pension funds failing?11:21 - A fragile world19:54 - How Dave thinks about liquidity25:20 - What does cheap actually mean?34:23 - What might be next for volatility41:43 - The next Korean ship builder?46:19 - Is forecasting pointless?51:00 - Improve your convexity = improve your life59:37 - What is cheap today?01:13:14 - Time
12/21/2022 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 16 seconds
SI223: 2022 an unusual year for Volatility ft. Cem Karsan
IL10: Chip War (FT's Best Business Book 2022) ft. Chris Miller
Today, Chris Miller, Author and Associate Professor of International History, joins us for a fascinating conversation on microchip technology and its impact on modern day society, based on his book “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology” - which just received the Financial Times Best Business Book of 2022 Award. We discuss why semiconductor chips are so important today and the complex manufactoring process behind them, the history and role of the very few companies that dominate the industry, the problems that the monopolistic situation causes but also the opportunities that it has created for technology. We also discuss the concerns that the technology has created in terms of espionage and digital warfare, why a deep integration between telecom systems might be a solution to the potential conflicts that the technology can cause, what might be able to disrupt the industry and much more. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Chris on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:37 - Introduction to Chris and his work06:17 - About his research process09:50 - Why are semiconductor chips so important?14:39 - How did we end...
12/14/2022 • 56 minutes, 25 seconds
SI222: Trend Following vs Tail Hedging to Protect Your Portfolio ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins us for conversation on Trend Following with something for the both the individual everyday investor and the trend following nerds. We also catch up on this week's events which included news of the biggest one-week outflow of US Equity Mutual & ETF funds since April 2021 and the news that Blackstone will be limiting investor redemption's in one of their Real Estate funds. We discuss how Rob uses dynamic market selection to diversify his portfolio and how he plans out his trading year when it comes to deep dive analysis, how he implements and tests his continuous trend systems and if he believes in using tail protection strategies to manage risk. We also discuss how Rob implement his carry strategy, portfolio optimization and momentum factor investing, what the special Year-End Group episodes will bring and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:39 - What happened this week?20:22 - Industry performance update22:25 - Q1, Elie: Can you run a continous system without daily vol targeting? Can you calculate signal scaling with in-sample data? More info on the mean reversion system with a high sharpe?34:42 - Q2, Matthijs: How does Rob think about protecting/diversifying his portfolio with tail protection strategies?42:54 - Q3, Richard: Has Rob considered conditioning his carry forecasts based on asset class? Should I account for using the spread of nearest contract to nearest plus when calculating the raw carry forecast?49:44 - AQR Paper on Portfolio...
12/10/2022 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 28 seconds
GM30: The Era of Weather Volatility ft. Shawn Hackett
Today, we are joined by Shawn Hackett, Founder of Hackett Financial Advisors, for a conversation on how changes in weather and weather volatility affects the economy and you as an investor. We discuss the role and state of agriculture and the impact of climate change, the mechanisms of the climate and why understanding the big picture of weather cycles is so important, how we are transitioning into a new weather cycle, what it means for the crop production and important indicators for predicting crop yields. We also discuss why Hackett view the value of commodities the same way he view the value of stocks and why being aware of where we are in the climate and economic cycles is critical, why long term planning is a key factor in managing risk, how to approach agriculture and commodities in general in your investment strategy and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Shawn on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:07 - The state of agriculture10:10 - How Sunspots are affecting the earth?15:22 - What drives the climate?19:00 - Why are the winds over the Pacific so significant?21:18 - The World is moving into a new phase27:39 - Predicting the weather?36:10 - Positioning risk and classification44:56 - The impact of currencies49:08 - Weather Volatility - good or bad?50:41 - Assisting the...
12/7/2022 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 43 seconds
SI221: Will 2023 be another Trend Following Year? ft. Alan Dunne
ALO12: How to Invest like a Private Bank ft. Shannon Saccocia
Today, we are joined by Shannon Saccocia, CIO at SVB Private, for a conversation on how portfolio management and manager selection is carried out at a private bank. We discuss how the current unstable environment has caused a change in investor behaviour and how technology has impacted the economy, what the next phase of investments looks like and how the economic landscape has changed as well as how SVB Private has adapted their asset allocation to the current crisis and the implications of going back to a low growth environment. We also discuss why managed futures is now worth considering, what defines a good team of managers and how to deal with behavioural bias in manager selection, where the IRA industry is heading and how it affects clients, advice to aspiring CIOs and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Shannon on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:15 - Introduction to Shannon and her work10:37 - A change in behaviour?19:12 - Moving beyond the three buckets26:20 - A rough year33:01 - Staying diversified40:03 - Are Managed Futures becoming viable for Private Banks...again?44:05 - Manager selection vs. asset allocation50:26 - Dealing with behavioural bias57:06 - Discussing the IRA industry01:03:33 - Advice to aspiring CIOs01:06:56 - Key...
11/30/2022 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 9 seconds
SI220: Is It Too Late for Trend Following? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
GM29: What if the World isn't Ending? ft. Marko Papic
Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can prepare you for the future as an investor, what role politicians play in society and the methods they use to gain voters, how voters are affected by media and the importance of understanding your biases and weaknesses. We also discuss political analysis and how Papic uses Bayesian analysis, why he believes tech is going to underperform massively and why flirting with another power can produce policy results, why Papic is hedging against the dollar, why he believes the war in Ukraine will enter stasis and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Marko on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:56 - Introduction to Marco Papic10:35 - Is geopolitical analysis even valid?14:23 - Go to the insiders if you want geopolitical analysis?21:04 - How can geopolitical analysis be exploited like investment constraints?25:42 - What actually causes recessions?32:33 - Using constraints based analysis37:15 - What is the median voter theory?40:33 - Are median voters controlled by media?45:24 - The role of Bayesian...
11/23/2022 • 1 hour, 19 minutes, 8 seconds
SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:52 - What happened this week?07:22 - Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve? 11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?14:21 - Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?18:39 - Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom?22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers30:11 - Asset classes in secular inflation38:15 - Change
11/19/2022 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 20 seconds
GM28: Draught, Deflation, Default & Global Depression ft. Simon Hunt
TTU121: Trend Following... from Optional to Essential ft. Nick Baltas
Today, Niels and Rob are joined by Nick Baltas, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on systematic investment strategies. We discuss the difference between a number of systematic trading strategies and the pros and cons of each, how crowding impacts systematic investing and how the narrative created by media affects the systematic investment space, the capacity constraints for CTAs and the impact of costs. We also discuss how big an impact the trend following community has on the markets and the strength and weaknesses of different alternative markets, selective hedging and how skew can be used as a predictor of future returns. Lastly, we discuss the challenging environment of 2022 and why Trend is performing so well this year, why Trend Following is becoming an essential part of every portfolio and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Episode Timestamps:00:00 - Intro03:16 - Introduction to Nick Baltas05:59 - Baltas’ findings from comparing different systematic trading strategies12:10 - Is the CTA industry too small to have an impact?16:44 - Blame it on the trend following people21:42 - Baltas’ research on capacity30:03 - The impact of trend37:54 - Pros and cons between different alternative markets46:10 - Using skew in your strategy52:57 - Nick's article in Financial...
11/9/2022 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 16 seconds
SI217: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Allocation ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins us for our weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we also address this week's press conference held by Chairman Powell. We discuss the most optimal time period for trend following and how trend following differ from short-term trading. Then we explain the challenges in the UCITS space and how regulation affects these products, and why it is important to correctly distinguish asset classes and trading strategies from each other. We also discuss Rob’s approach to building mean reversion systems, the importance of analyzing trading costs and if it is worth learning how to trade futures, if you have a small account. Lastly, we discuss hedge fund replication and how Rob approaches it, and how to decide, how much you should allocate to Trend Following and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:58 - The biggest takeaways from the week?11:36 - Industry performance update13:27 - Status on Rob’s book14:38 - Q1, Simon: What is the shortest term that Rob has looked at in trend following / momentum?25:26 - Q2, Matthew: Relationship between UCITS funds's lower vol and Trend Following allocation? & Advice for small investors32:20 - Comment, Mark: Confusing asset classes and trading strategies39:22 - Q3, Toby: About building mean reversing systems40:58 - Q4, Zach: How to approach holding periods and rolling costs?43:22 - Q5, Anis: Cash equities vs. futures for trend...
11/6/2022 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 10 seconds
GM27: Central Banks were Warned about their Failed Policies ft. William White
Today, we are joined by William White, Economist, Policy Advisor and Policy Maker who worked at the OECD, BIS & Bank of Canada, for a conversation on monetary policy and how it can negatively impact the economy. We discuss the unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policies, what has caused the current rebound in inflation and why we have gone from price stability to specific inflation rate targeting. We also discuss how Central Banks have handled inflation and supply shocks, both historically and recently, through monetary policies, how the current debt problem poses a threat to the economy and how it might be solved, the psychological perspective behind economical theory and why the financial conditions might have been too easy, financial and physical dominance and why they are not good for a non inflationary future. Lastly, we discuss the crisis from a European perspective, why the Dollar might not be stable in a future crisis and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow William White.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:12 - Introduction to William White04:38 - Discussing White’s paper about monetary policies10:32 - What has driven the inflation to this point?23:05 - Inflation targeting - a great succes? 33:18 - Are we seeing the right policy?40:33 - The debt problem52:24 - Has central bank credibility been undermined?58:18 - Seduced by their...
11/2/2022 • 1 hour, 27 minutes, 14 seconds
SI216: A New Era for Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly dose of Trend Following where we reflect on an eventful week, with Elon Musk taking over Twitter, the META stock taking a big hit and much more. We discuss how to approach asset allocation when adding trend following to your portfolio, how to find the optimal allocation and why Trend Following is often the most consistent part of the portfolio. We also discuss why it is important to think about forward looking risks and the idea that we are moving into a new era and regime, the unpredictability of the current inflation and why the rule-based strategies will have the upper hand as well as reflecting on next week’s episode with William White and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:58 - Summary of the week07:51 - Industry performance update15:38 - The optimal allocation24:42 - Trend Following is the most consistent part of the Portfolio? 37:22 - Are we moving into a new era?47:37 - Reflecting on the upcoming conversation with William White52:29 - Unforeseen consequences of QE55:40 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK: GIC-ThinkSpace-Building-Balanced-Portfolios-for-the-Long-Run.pdf<a...
10/29/2022 • 57 minutes, 32 seconds
GM26: Out with the FED Put & In with the OIL Put ft. Adam Rozencwajg
IL09: The Money Revolution...Rethinking Economic Growth ft. Richard Duncan
Richard Duncan, Economist and best-selling Author, joins us for a conversation on new ways of thinking about economic growth and prosperity. We discuss the historical aspects of growth and how credit creation and consumption generate economic growth, how foreign central banks create credit and how it has created an economic bubble in the American economy, how the U.S. economy has become addicted to credit growth and how the combination of a negative wealth effect and credit contraction poses a threat to the economy. We also the discuss the importance of the CHIPS and Science Act, how China could become the new superpower of the world and what the U.S. can do to prevent it, what a multi trillion dollar investment could mean for the American economy and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Richard on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro04:29 - Introduction to Richard Duncan and his book15:35 - Credit creation and consumption - a long term growth strategy?22:54 - The problems with foreign central bank credit31:45 - Reflecting on Alan Greenspan’s response34:02 - Addicted to credit growth?36:23 - How will...
10/18/2022 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 38 seconds
SI214: Trend Following & CTA Replication ft. Andrew Beer
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, Managing Member at Dynamic Beta Investments LLC, for a conversation on managed futures replication, ETFs and how they have found a way to get these essential strategies into more investor portfolios. We discuss how they do they have constructed the replication strategies and how Andrew have been able to gain enormous traction among advisers. We also touch on why Andrew does not include crypto and how the price of ETF is established. We take lots of questions and round our conversation off by discussing why managed futures have become an essential part of a portfolio and why Andrew believe that the demand for the strategy will continue to be strong for years to come and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on TwitterEpisode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:57 - This week in Trend Following?06:38 - Industry performance update08:34 - A bit of background to Andrew and his work15:12 - The mechanics of their replication strategy20:20 - Getting correlation right...is that enough?34:25 - What about flat periods?41:19 - What is the hardest part of what you do?44:29 - Q1, Brian: Is there any tax advantages to your product?46:01 - Q2, Jerry: What does your investor base look like?53:19 - Are cryptocurrencies part of your universe?57:16 - Q3, Jerry: How is the price of the ETF made up?59:24 - Q4, Mike: Will capacity become an issue at a certain level of AUM like it does for traditional CTA...
10/16/2022 • 1 hour, 50 minutes, 20 seconds
IL08: Why The Best Quitters Win ft. Annie Duke
Today, Annie Duke, Author and former professional poker player, joins us for a conversation on learning under certainty and making better decisions in an uncertain world, based on her book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When To Walk Away”. We discuss when is the right time to quit and what an expedition at Mount Everest can teach us about quitting, why there are no benefits of “learning the lesson the hard way” and why we tend to quit when it is too late, the importance of having kill criteria and splitting the decision. We also discuss why Duke recommends to keep your approach systematic and why setting goals is not always beneficial, the importance of finding a quitting coach and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Annie on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:24 - Introduction to Annie Duke and her book 07:14 - Key takeaways from her book10:03 - Quitting at the right time18:08 - Work smarter, not harder23:04 - Are we overestimating ourselves?29:57 - Setting rules and making decisions35:27 - The benefits of splitting the decision42:04 - Keep it...
10/11/2022 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 49 seconds
SI213: Trend Following Records are being set in 2022? ft. Richard Brennan
GM25: A realtime account of going through "hell" in the markets ft. Michael Gayed
Today, we are joined by Michael Gayed, award winning Author and Portfolio Manager, for a real time account of what it's like to go through a challenging time in the markets. We discuss how Michael reinvented himself in 2009 and what he learned from the Great Recession, why Michael believes that Trend Following is not a long-vol strategy and how Gayed uses Lumber vs Gold as a market, Risk-on Risk-off indicator and how he uses treasuries as a tool to look forward in time. We also dig into why Gayed believe that higher rates is indicative of an increasing economic activity, why your ability to stick to a strategy matters more than the strategy itself, how buying used items can be a way to fight inflation and why the best investment opportunities happens on dislocations, the reason working harder does not necessarily generate better results and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Michael on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:58 - Introduction to Michael Gayed06:05 - What Michael learned from the Great Recession?13:37 - Using the S&P instead of realized volatility17:21 - Treasuries - A safe asset?23:22 - A mixed picture in terms of risk26:39 - Why Lumber instead of Copper?30:13 - Is the (inversion of the) yield curve still valid?31:53 - What about the asset class cycle?34:34 - Higher rates = increased economic...
10/5/2022 • 1 hour, 25 seconds
SI212: Trend Following in a Soft, Hard or No Landing ft. Alan Dunne
Today, we are joined by Michael Howell, Author and Managing Director of Crossborder Capital, for a conversation on how liquidity drives financial markets, based on his book, “Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity”. We address term premia and the impact it has on the economy, the off-shore market, how Central Banks have become the dominant players over the last decade and the capital war between China and the U.S. We also discuss what might happen if the global economy becomes divided into two worlds, where one is financed by the U.S. dollar and the other financed by the Chinese Yuan and the increasing networking risk and risk of crises within the financial system, the different types of liquidity and the recipe for creating a strong dollar and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Michael on Linkedin and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:51 - Introduction to Michael Howell and his work07:38 - How much debt is there globally?14:08 - Why is longer-term treasuries desirable?16:08 - The off-shore market 19:56 - The capital war between China and the U.S.41:37 - Is the financial system more fragile than we think?50:10 - What if the 10-year bond yield blows out rapidly?53:59 -
9/21/2022 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 29 seconds
SI210: Trend Following Q & A ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns after his extended holiday and kicks off by taking a nostalgic look back to 1985 as the British Pounds this week hit the lowest level since that year, to reflect on how markets tend to go in cycles. We also address dynamic optimisation, whether it contributes to make more markets "tradable" and the use of "non-tradable" markets, how Rob uses correlation and clustering for his classification approach and his strategy allocating to Trend Following. Additionally, we discuss techniques for Trend Following on single stocks and determining distances in a continuous MA crossover system, strategies to increase the capacity of a Trend Following program and running multiple different systems together, and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:52 - Key takeaways from the week?15:35 - What does the future hold for interest rates and inflation?22:52 - Industry performance update25:52 - Q1, Joakim: Does dynamic optimisation in itself make more markets tradable?32:21 - Q1, Follow-up: About adding "non-tradable" markets35:39 - Q2, Kristen: Futures markets and Rob’s classification approach 43:15 - Q3, Kristoffer: How to treat CTAs? And deciding between allocating to investment-grade corporate bonds or high yield bonds49:46 - Q4, Elie: Book recommendations for relevant statistical concepts + why not build a trend following portfolio of single stocks which are optimized for low correlation?57:15 - Q4,...
9/17/2022 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 24 seconds
IL07: Equality Across the Globe can be Achieved ft. Oded Galor
Today, we are joined by Oded Galor, Professor of Economics at Brown University, for a conversation on how we can explore and uncover new ways of thinking about the economy, based on his book “The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality”. We discuss inequality from a historical aspect and the roots of human behaviour, the Malthusian trap and how the industrial evolution has impacted humanity and how geography, culture and diversity is a key factor in achieving equality. We also address the costs and benefits of diversity within a society and how we need diversity to generate more growth and complex solutions, why China will be left behind due to a lack of cultural fluidity, the process of measuring diversity, how we can improve going forward and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Oded on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro04:00 - Introduction to Oded Galor07:29 - Fundamental insights from Galor’s book09:49 - From Stagnation to Growth21:22 - Education and the labour force30:24 - The impact of longer-term structural forces40:38 - Can new cultures emerge?43:31...
9/14/2022 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 58 seconds
SI209: Trend Following...The Best Way to Surf the Markets ft. Richard Brennan
ALO11: From Ballet Dancer to CIO ft. Cameron Dawson
Today, we are joined by Cameron Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, who has a really unique background. We address how she allocate and construct her portfolios in a highly unstable and inflationary environment and why she prefesr to play on the smaller side of funds. We also discuss the importance of valuations and how it can help forecast long term returns and how she analyzes earnings and liquidity to understand and navigate an uncertain macro environment, the outlook for inflation and how the Fed might act to combat the economic instability as well as their process of recruiting external managers. Lastly, we discuss how narratives impact the markets and the importance of knowing the source of your returns, how to approach long-term investment to avoid buying at the top and selling at the bottom, as well as some sound advice for aspiring CIOs and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Cameron on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:10 - Introduction to Cameron and her work at NewEdge Wealth08:01 - Navigating in a tough environment14:31 - Their approach to asset allocation21:31 - The historical perspective29:56 - Getting comfort in an uncertain macro environment41:20 - Is high inflation here to stay?48:33 - What it will take for the Fed to call victory?53:18 - Bottom-Up or Top-Down?01:00:39 - Dealing with...
9/7/2022 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 3 seconds
SI208: Trend Following in Today's Economy ft. Alan Dunne
Today, we are joined by Jason Morrow, Deputy CIO at Utah Retirement Systems, for a conversation on how portfolio management is carried out at a large pension fund. We discuss how Morrow approaches the objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio and the realized volatility over time, how they manage the challenges of an inflationary environment and balance their portfolio to mitigate risk, how they find the right mix of public and private equities and their approach to absolute return strategies. We also address the process of assembling a team of managers and evaluating quant strategies, how to mitigate behavioural biases when selecting manager, cultivating talent as a CIO and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Jason on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:35 - Introduction to Jason Morrow08:02 - Investment objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio13:21 - How does inflation affect URS's portfolio?20:27 - Building and balancing the portfolio24:29 - Public vs. private equities31:22 - Using multiple asset allocating strategies38:06 - Their approach to selecting managers41:15 - Evaluating quant strategies45:51 - Behavioural biases in manager selection50:27 - Return expectations setting for alts55:42 - Mastering the role as a CIO01:01:13 - Book...
8/31/2022 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 14 seconds
SI207: Trend Following: The Perfect Portfolio? ft. Jerry Parker
SI206: Trend Following is a Lazy Man's Strategy ft. Mark Rzepczynski
This week, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for our weekly update on Trend Following, at the end of yet another busy week for inflation watchers. Based on an article by Cliff Asness at AQR, we discuss why you want to own managed futures and why you want to avoid getting "carried away" as a Trend Follower, the dual mandate and the difference between strategy and running a business, innovation in Trend Following and why macro trends do not always translate to price trends. We also discuss how high inflation affects Trend Following and the importance of divergence, why turning points kill the real issue beyond inflation and using the 70 percent rule to make trading decisions, the difference between trend following and momentum and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro03:22 - What happened this week?13:36 - Industry performance update16:07 - AQR latest article on managed futures27:56 - The dual mandate and volatility "targeting"37:55 - The private equity issue and innovation in Trend Following43:48 - FT Article from Goldman Sachs about inflation and divergence49:25 - How turning points impact your overall TF returns53:17 - The 70 percent rule...and why it works for Trend Followers56:03 - Hedgehogs vs. Foxes and drought in market liquidity01:02:30 - Trend following vs. Momentum...can you tell the difference01:03:55 - “Entrepreneurs of errors”01:06:01 - Supply,...
8/20/2022 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 18 seconds
GM21: The Inflation Regime and the Big Macro Picture ft. Darius Dale
Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the past about inflation and advice for trading in an inflationary regime. Additionally, Darius explains how he and 42macro consider external factors, such as demographics and structural changes when trading and analyzing the markets and he describes the financial and political impact of approaching a new Fourth Turning. Lastly, we discuss portfolio construction and risk management frameworks, why it is important to be humble and honest about the uncertainty and unpredictability of the current state of the markets and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Darius on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 0:00 - Intro03:15 - Who is Darius Dale?06:48 - Darius's strategic perspective10:38 - What will happen to the inflation going forward?20:28 - Looking at the next 6-12 months26:18 - What about the longer term?31:39 - The historical perspective39:33 - What Darius is telling investors right now48:22 - Dealing with external factors58:36 - Factor correlation and clustering01:02:07 - Are portfolio construction models...
8/17/2022 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 58 seconds
SI205: Trend Following...What Really Matters ft. Richard Brennan
IL06: The History of Interest & the Next Devastating Crisis ft. Edward Chancellor
Edward Chancellor, Author, Journalist and unrivaled Financial Historian, joins us today to discuss the history of Interest, based on his new book, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest". We address why it is crucial to pay attention to the historical perspectives of the economy, the allocation of capital and interest and why low interest rates have a feedback effect on the economy, the zombie corporate phenomenon and the impact it has on the economy. We also discuss the longer term consequences of low interest rates and whether bubbles can be beneficial, globalization and how interest rates impacts the fragility of global supply chains, the role of Central Banks and how they affect price stabilization by preventing creative destruction. Lastly, we discuss how the Fed policy of “cleaning up afterwards” creates unintended problems, how a zero interest policy can pose a threat to capitalism and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Edward on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:19 - Introduction to Edward 04:19 - The process of writing his latest book14:15 - Are we forgetting the economic history?19:34 - How Edward approaches his...
8/10/2022 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 11 seconds
SI204: Trend Following & A Cocktail of Macro Factors ft. Alan Dunne
Bilal Hafeez, Founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, joins us today to discuss the current state of the markets and how we are possibly heading into a new regime and why FED Funds may hit 8%. We address the economic outlook of the near future and how the FED will deal with the challenges of inflation and increasing interest rates, how technology has taken over parts of the labour force and how Covid-19 has changed the way people and companies work, how demographics impacts inflation and the growth problems that China currently experiences. We also discuss how the future for asset allocation looks and how the sanctions against Russia impacts the economy around the world. Lastly, Bilal explains his process and approach to making research and recommends books that have been influential to him.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Bilal on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:03 - Introduction to Bilal Hafeez07:51 - How does the community respond to the current environment?10:43 - FED Funds & the economic outlook of the next 6-12 months23:17 - An inflation story29:39 - Demographics - is it inflationary or dis-inflationary?35:20 - What is next for asset allocation44:03 - Should we worry about the sanctions against Russia?51:58 - Lessons learned from previous crises55:16 - Bilal’s research...
8/2/2022 • 1 hour, 9 minutes
SI203: A new way of doing Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker
Today, we are joined by Jerry Parker where we dive into some of the highlights from the challenging month of July and how the industry has handled the current high level of volatility and trend reversals, why Trend Following continues to work but how narratives can create vicious reversals in the markets. We also discuss questions from listeners regarding Jerry’s strategies for entering and exiting trades, advice for backtesting using continuous futures contracts, how to handle stop losses and including equities in your allocation strategy. Lastly, Jerry describes why he is in favour of accidental diversification and why he is always on the hunt for outliers, why adding more markets has no impact on the robustness of a system and why he prefers to be a “slow tractor”. We finish off discussing how some firms claim that they can replicate the returns of Hedge Funds and CTAs without charging much for it and Jerry reveals a profound change to how he wants to extract trends from markets...even if it means that he will more correlated to Equities.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:02 - Market overview03:52 - Major events of the month16:00 - The importance of narratives19:16 - How Jerry handles equities22:39 - Q1, Michael: How does Jerry enter a new trade after he exited his first?25:55 - Q2, Caleb: Backtesting using continuous futures contracts30:02 - Q3, Adam: How to use stop losses and equities inclusion36:09 - Jerry's big reveal: "CTAs focus too...
7/30/2022 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 40 seconds
IL05: The Road to Economic Stability ft. Andrew Smithers
Today, we are joined by Andrew Smithers, Author, Economist and Founder of Smithers & Co, to discuss how we can achieve economic stability, based on his book, “The Economics of the Stock Market”. We address the Q Ratio and why it is important for economic stability, how to use the idea of hindsight value to predict markets and how monetary policy has contributed to economic instability, the incentives for a company’s management and how to balance the level of leverage. Lastly, we discuss reasons why policy makers should be focusing on Q, what Andrew has planned for the future and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Andrew on Smithers & Co & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:15 - Introduction to Andrew 03:28 - Key messages from his book06:42 - How is the Q Ratio constructed?14:34 - The idea of hindsight value23:31 - How Quantitative Easing caused instability?26:49 - How remuneration policies have led to an increased Q value31:14 - The incentives for management42:30 - Should policy makers focus more on Q?53:10 - The economic consequences of...
7/27/2022 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 39 seconds
SI202: Trend Following in a Binary World ft. Mark Rzepczynski
IL04: Inflation & The Great Demographic Reversal ft. Manoj Pradhan
Manoj Pradhan, Author and Founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the structural forces that will drive markets in the future, based on his book, “The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. We cover demographics and how it has impacted inflation and interest rates, the idea of using robots and automation to make society more efficient and productive, how ageing is a major contributor to a country’s debt and how inflation can be used as a tool to deal with rising debt, monetization of debt through bonds and how it can be deflationary in some cases. Lastly, we discuss why Manoj believes inequality is going to decrease, due to an imbalance in the labour force, how this shift in equality impacts the economy and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Manoj on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:13 - Introduction to Manoj and his book07:59 - How demography has impacted inflation and interest rates?15:05 - Can the global labour force be increased?22:31 - Using automation to increase efficiency33:49 - Did...
7/19/2022 • 59 minutes, 59 seconds
SI201: Trend Followers Positioned for Recession ft. Richard Brennan
Today, Richard Brennan tackle lots of great questions from listeners as to why Trend Following works, why trends occur in markets and why it is best to exploit them using a systematic approach, the idea of doing Trend Following on Trend Following using the TTU trend barometer. We also discuss different ways of looking at leverage in your portfolio, pros and cons of using stops and different approaches to applying volatility targeting. Lastly, we discuss why it can be beneficial to trade more than one Trend Following system, the issues that can occur when using the same system for a diversified composite, how to avoid the anxiety associated with building drawdowns and finally we address recent statements made that CTAs may be not be well positioned should we enter into a recession.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:03 - Update on recent market and economic news?08:36 - Industry Performance update10:28 - Q1, Bruno: Why does Trend Following work?22:57 - Q2, Elie: Doing Trend Following on Trend Following 29:50 - Q3, Adam: How to calculate leverage for a CTA?35:43 - Q4, Mark: Complicating your system with stops & views on volatility targeting54:51 - Trading an ensemble of systems vs. a single system58:44 - Using the same systems for a diversified portfolio01:06:12 - Dealing with the psychological challenges of drawdowns01:13:22 - Comments on whether Vol or TF strategies may be best for a comming...
7/16/2022 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 49 seconds
IL03: Finding Optimism in Times of Crises ft. Larry Siegel
Today, Larry Siegel, Author and Director of Research at CFA Research Foundation, joins us to discuss his book, “Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance” and how demographic trends impact inflation. Additionally, we discuss the benefits of population growth, the importance of having a free society and how authoritarianism and fascism impairs a population, the history of economic growth and how it has enabled better and cheaper sources of energy, nuclear power and how it can be a solution to the global energy crisis. Lastly, we discuss why global warming is not as severe and urgent of a problem as many believe, due to technological advancements and great progress in recent years.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Larry on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:12 - An introduction to Larry and his book11:46 - Key takeaways from Larry’s study of demographic trends18:48 - Population and economic growth around the world27:49 - The importance of freedom31:53 - Economic growth = better and cheaper sources of energy?38:30 - Nuclear power - a tail risk?48:31 - The...
7/13/2022 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 45 seconds
SI200: Stacking Returns into a Tightning Cycle ft. Alan Dunne
IL02: Cold War & US Relations with China ft. James A. Fok
James A. Fok, Financial Markets Professional and author of the book, “Financial Cold War”, joins us today for a discussion on how the Great Leap Forward has had an impact on China as a society and why they start to experience a virtual societal collapse, the financial relationship between China and the U.S and how financial warfare between the two countries can create a global crisis. We also discuss the idea of financial mutually assured destruction and how the Western society can become more financially independent from China and vice versa, the notion of having a neutral reserve currency to create a more balanced financial relationship and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow James on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:58 - Who is James A. Fok & why did he write his book07:30 - A virtual societal collapse in China19:02 - An emerging scepticism?25:03 - The balance payment deficit of the U.S40:10 - Deepening the interdependencies between China and the U.S50:14 - A fragmented financial relationship56:59 - The possibility...
7/6/2022 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 32 seconds
SI199: Achieving Highest CAGR through Optimal Leverage ft. Rob Carver
IL01: Turning Water Into Wine with Diversification ft. Antti Ilmanen
In today’s episode, Antti Ilmanen, author and Global co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management, joins us to discuss key learnings from his new book, “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns”. We break down why commodities are crucial for generating returns in periods of high inflation and how to manage risk through diversification. We also discuss portfolio construction and whether bonds are still valuable in a diversified portfolio, market timing and how to balance emerging markets and developed markets in your investment strategy, why a diversified blend of risk premia is advantageous and finish off highlighting potential pitfalls of using long-term data and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Antti on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:36 - About Antti’s book, “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns”15:22 - The importance of commodities, especially during inflationary times21:36 - What’s up with bonds?30:06 - Emerging markets vs. high beta38:40 - Alternative risk premia...both Alpha & Beta like47:00 - The idea of valuation spreads and crowding...
6/29/2022 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 42 seconds
SI198: Trend Following wearing Loose Pants ft. Jerry Parker
Today, we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how recessions affect current trends and returns for Trend Followers, how to use ATR to determine the initial stop and when to switch to using a trailing stop for your position. We also discuss if it's possible to achieve comparable performance when investing through a public or private fund. Finally we turn to a few imporant topics like how “alts” or "alternatives" mean different things to different people, the Commodity Super Cycle and how it can create a false narrative, how Trend Following adapts to market regimes and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:57 - Market overview09:42 - Q1, Andre: What to expect after a good run in Trend Following returns13:51 - Q2, Ryan: How to use Average True Range (ATR)27:05 - Q3, David: Performance in public mutual funds vs. offshore funds32:07 - Q4, Paul: When to switch from Initial to Trailing stop and sizing your position39:56 - Q5, Victor: How did Jerry manage to give back 200 ATRs in TESLA?47:17 - Q6, Victor: How to Allocate your Risk Budget to avoid running out of cash?53:41 - The different meatnings of “Alts” when it comes to investing01:02:04 - Commodity Super Cycles - a false narrative?01:09:51 - How Trend Following adapts to ever chaning market regimes01:13:02 - What to expect from Trend Following in the long run01:18:37 - Industry performance...
6/26/2022 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 21 seconds
GM20: Bitcoin & The Great Power Shift ft. Nathaniel Whittemore
SI196: Where Next for Trend Following? ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins us to discuss recent events in the world of Trend Following and takes questions from listeners regarding what it takes to do Trend Following full-time and how much capital is needed to do so. We also discuss potential benefits of adding a mean reversion system on a short term time frame and exploring trend following in spreads, what Rob thinks of trading alternative markets, how to mitigate the pain from false breakouts and how to select a universe of stocks to apply your existing rules. Finally, we break down the latest research paper from AHL dealing with the outlook of Trend Following, how Trend Following perform in crisis periods, in periods of rising interest rates and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:14 - Market recap05:51 - What has caught Rob’s attention recently?13:35 - Q1, Ben: Going Full-Time a a Trend Follow - How much capital do I need?22:16 - Q2, Gambit: Should I add a Mean Reversion & Spread Trading model?31:47 - Q3, Younggotti: Alternative assets and markets - do they help?36:44 - Q4, FluffyDunny: How to best avoid False Breakouts39:36 - Q5, Mendel: How to select your universe of stocks to trade44:37 - AHL Paper: Gaining Momentum - Where Next for Trend Following?01:07:22 - Bloomberg article01:10:00 - Industry performance updateResources discussed in this Episode:<a...
6/12/2022 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 1 second
GM18: Boomers, Tax & Deflation ft. Alfonso Peccatiello & Andreas Steno Larsen
GM17: Elon Musk...From Showman to Charlatan ft. Grant Williams
Today, Grant Williams, creator of The Grant Williams Podcast, joins us to discuss the direction that the world is heading from a global macro perspective, the role of the Federal Reserve and how it has corrupted the price of money. We also touch on how the loss of faith in institutions is a key feature of the Fourth Turning, how inflation impacts inequality and how confidence in the Federal Reserve correlates with the level of interest rates, crypto currencies and the underlying problems of the technology, Central Banking 2.0 and what happens if a Central Bank buys all the bonds in a market, real estate and the potential dangers of the housing sector, the commodity super cycle and how it causes rising interest rates, and the fate and fortune of Elon Musk plus much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Grant on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro04:19 - Grant’s background05:54 - The big global macro picture16:08 - The role of the Federal Reserve today25:16 - Inflation...the great equalizer or not36:09 - Crypto and not so stable coins44:06 - Central Banking 2.058:43 - The danger signs in Real Estate01:06:58 - The commodity super cycle01:13:41 - Elon Musk...from Showman to Charlatan01:19:04 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK: Things That...
6/1/2022 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 23 seconds
SI194: Trend Following & Manager Selection ft. Alan Dunne
GM15: The New World Order & Space Race ft. Pippa Malmgren
Pippa Malmgren, former White House Adviser, technology entrepreneur and economist, joins us in today’s episode to discuss warfare in space and the space race between the super powers and the push to declassify UFO related information, how Pippa stays optimistic in a world of conflict and how the instability threatens Western democracy. We also discuss what we now know about COVID & the Vaccines and how this relates to the FED, how money printing has created a situation of both artificial calm and social unrest, whether China plans to invade Taiwan and what China has learned from the invasion of Ukraine, how the demographics of China and Russia can inhibit their power of action, how the lack of nuance contaminates the public debate and divides the population, the future of democracy and decline of autocracy, innovation and the jobs of tomorrow and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Pippa on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro05:26 - Out-sourcing & Off balance sheet government activities08:05 - Space warfare15:00 - Optimism in an unstable world20:00 - The Future of Western democracy25:10 - Money printing and its consequences27:55 - The Baltics and separating Germany from the Alliance33:52 - The prospects of China invading Taiwan46:40 - What we now know about COVID & the Risk of the FED making a huge mistake57:16 - Democracy in...
5/18/2022 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 40 seconds
SI192: Knowing What You Don't Know ft. Mark Rzepczinsky
In this episode, Niels and Cem are joined by Peter Zeihan, author and Geopolitical strategist, to discuss the New World Order and World War III, how the Globalization has become a new battleground rather than a barrier to conflict, the role of technology in modern warfare, how the US were able to read Putin's emails and the impact of war on a national and global scale, the military and political power of China, America and Russia and the relationship between them and the rest of the world, how democracy is affected by the “age of emergency”, the financial aspects of war and crises, crypto as a potential economic asset and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Peter on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro04:15 - How we got to the brink of WW3?09:42 - The role of technology18:32 - The relationship with China28:25 - Submarines and the war in Ukraine40:38 - Age of emergency and the threat to Democracy47:58 - Autocracy and technology54:34 - The financial perspective59:39 - The role of Crypto01:02:39 - Climate change01:06:56 - What Investors should do01:10:42 - The role and future of Governments01:17:11 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK: The End of the World is Just the...
Jerry Parker joins us in today’s episode, to discuss pros and cons of adding different trading styles to your strategy and how to react when bad periods occur, using borrowed money as part of a systematic trading approach, expected returns of equities, finding the best investment strategy, achieving a high level of consistency in your Trend Following returns, using AI and Machine Learning to predict the future, Divergent Regimes and how they may last a lot longer this time, the geometry of classic Trend Following, what it takes to succeed and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:If it helps adding different styles to your trading strategyIf you should use borrowed money as part of a systematic trading approachHow to find the best investment strategyHow to achieve a high level of consistency in your returnsThe use of AI and Machine Learning...does it improve your returnsDivergent Regimes and the end of CarryThe geometry of classic Trend FollowingWhat it takes to succeed-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro05:02 - What’s been on Jerry’s radar?07:30 - Q1, Isaiah - Add trading styles or stick with the “Trend Following + nothing”?19:31 - Q2, Nick - About leverage and using borrowed money25:40 - Jerry's Tweets38:30 - Consistency in returns & how to achieve this43:15 - AI and Machine Learning49:27 - Divergent Regimes56:51 - Geometry of trend...
4/16/2022 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 59 seconds
ALO08: Investing like the Rothschild's ft. Hugo Capel Cure
Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Hugo Capel Cure, Managing Director of Rothschild & Co, to discuss how they build strong portfolios for their clients, how rising inflation can affect the markets in a surprising way, how they use CTAs and Trend Followers to mitigate risk, the challenges of staying invested, being a stock and fund picker at the same time, how manager selection is like a dating process and how they differentiate between process and outcome, how they make good decisions as a team, how to act in times of crises, the people who inspired Hugo to become a better investor and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How to build strong Multi-Asset portfolios for your clientsHow using CTAs and Trend Followers can help mitigate riskHow manager selection is like a dating processHow to make good decisions as a teamHow to be well prepared for the next crises-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Hugo on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:18 - Introduction to Hugo’s work and investing strategy18:32 - From correlation focused to trading oriented strategies24:50 - Being allocated to trend followers28:35 - Challenges of staying invested30:23 - Being a chef and a critic39:41 - Making decisions and having a plan53:09 - People who have inspired...
4/13/2022 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 15 seconds
SI187: Why Commodities & Why Now ft. Tim Pickering
In this week’s episode, Tim Pickering, Founder of Auspice Capital, joins me to discuss why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio, how to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes, why he created The Auspice Broad Commodity Index, the role and importance of ESG in commodities trading, how commodity futures can be used as a risk mitigation tool, why Ukraine is so important for commodities, how to effectively protect yourself against inflation and much more-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Why commodities play such an important role in a portfolioHow to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimesHow ESG and commodities trading is closely relatedWhether to embrace Chinese commodity marketsWhy the war in Ukraine is so important for commoditiesStrategies for protecting yourself against inflation-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Tim on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:40 - What has caught Tim and Niels’ attention recently? 06:33 - What has happened since last Niels and Tim spoke in 2014?11:45 - Has Tim made any major research discoveries since last time?19:31 - Why commodities and why now?30:50 - How much room for liquidity is there in the markets?37:32 - Tim’s thoughts on the LME44:31 - Thoughts on commodity exposure and futures51:51 - Why is Ukraine so important for commodities?01:00:16 - Risk mitigation strategies at big pension...
4/9/2022 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 49 seconds
ALO07: CIOs on the Edge of Finance ft. Katherine Molnar & Andrew Spellar
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Katherine Molnar, CIO of Fairfax County Police Officers Retirement System, and Andrew Spellar, CIO of Fairfax County Employees Retirement System, to discuss how asset allocation is handled by one of the best performing public pension funds, how they manage risk and balance their portfolio through diversification, how the current instability in the markets has shaped their investment strategy, expectations of returns for different investment strategies, running portfolios using a risk parity framework, moving into digital assets, manager selection and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How asset allocation is handled in a successful public pension fund like Fairfax County Retirement SystemHow they manage risk and create balance in their portfoliosHow instability in the markets has shaped their strategyHow they look at return expectationsThe (brave) move into digital assetsManager selectionSkills and challenges of being a CIO-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katherine on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:05 - Overview of Fairfax County’s asset allocation strategy14:27 - How has the current market affected their strategy?19:35 - The
4/6/2022 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 9 seconds
SI186: Crisis Alpha & My Trend Following Thesis ft. Richard Brennan
Today, Rich and I discuss the Q1 Trend Following performance and how it turned out to be one of the best calendar quarters for the SG Trend and SG CTA indices. We also dive into my own "thesis" about trend following in a De-Globalized world and why I believe that we may be returning to the golden era of trend following, like in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. As usual we debated a few great questions from our community, relating to Volatility Targeting and how to manage your Stop-Loss. A lively episode for sure!-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Interest Rates and the current Bear Market in BondsOur slighltly different definitions of the term "Crisis Alpha"The concern's Rich has for the World, and what that means for Trend FollowingThe impact on Trend Following of a De-Globalization of the WorldThe difference between initial and trailling stops, and when to use themWhat software to use to backtest your systemsWhether dynamically adjusting your position size during a trade is better or worse than keeping it static-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:09 – Weekly recap from Niels05:22 - Update on Rich's Battleship15:35 - Crisis Alpha...yes but much more21:40 - My Trend Following Thesis37:24 - Q1, Andrew: Could you all define the use of a trailing vs initial stop in systems you use?52:25 - Q2, Nicolas: Do you know any affordable back testing systems, other than Excel?56:45 – Q3, Brian: If you Vol...
4/3/2022 • 1 hour, 24 minutes, 32 seconds
ALO06: Betting against Buffett ft. Ted Seides
Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Ted Seides, host and creator of the Capital Allocators podcast, to discuss the investment approach and philosophy of David Swensen, the Yale Model and how Seides has used the model to develop his own approach, whether being a hedgefond allocator has become gradually more difficult over the years, the bet Seides made with Warren Buffett, asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome, what Seides has learned from doing his podcast, decision making processes and governance, crypto currencies and digital assets and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The philosophy of David Swensen and the Yale ModelHow the role of hedge funds has changed over the yearsThe bet Seides made with Warren BuffettAsset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcomeWhat Seides has learned from doing his podcastThe importance of leadership and time managementThe difficulty of making a good decision in the heat of the momentThe future of crypto currencies and digital assets-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Ted on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:23 - Ted’s background07:35 - How Seides deviates from Swensen in his approach10:36 - The Yale Model and the end of 60/4015:55 - Is it more difficult to be a hedgefond allocator now?23:03 - Asset allocation vs. manager...
3/30/2022 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 16 seconds
SI185: Trend Following in a De-Globalised World
Mark Rzepczynski joins me in this week’s episode, to discuss strategies for rebalancing your portfolio, the coming de-globalisation and its impact on Trend Following, especially in light of events in Ukraine, the Hedger’s dilemma and how the LME may have lost the trust of its clients, divergence and how it might cause disruption in markets, what Mark learned from working with Ned Johnson III at Fidelity, and how the principle of Kaizen can be applied to trend following.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Different strategies for rebalancing your portfolioHow de-globalisation can impact Trend FollowingThe recent events in Nickel trading at the LMEHow divergence might cause disruption in markets,How the Japanese philosophy, Kaizen, can be applied to trend following-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:10 - Market recap04:41 - What has caught Mark’s attention recently?13:46 - Overview of the week18:28 - Q1, Brett: Any thoughts on rebalancing based on trending performance?30:45 - Trend Following, globalization and the Dark Ages47:15 - What happened at LME?59:18 - Fidelity, Edward Johnson and the Kaizen philosophy01:14:29 - Update on performance Resources discussed in this Episode:Link: Edward ‘Ned’ Johnson, Former Fidelity CEO, Dies -...
3/26/2022 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 29 seconds
TTU120: Carry - The Good, the Bad and the Ugly ft. Kevin Coldiron
In this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are still in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes after.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, we discuss:The increasing popularity of carry trading and its role in the global economyThe risk and volatility of carry trading, and how it can play a role in financial bubblesHow carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategiesThe role of liquidity within the carry worldThe future of carry-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on TwitterEpisode Timestamps:00:00 - Intro02:25 - Introduction to Kevin05:53 - Background on the co-authors of Kevin’s book09:43 - Definition of carry trading with examples13:56 - Volatility vs. risk23:11 - The role of Volatility in investing28:27 - Carry trade suppressing volatility35:55 - Does carry trades play a role in financial bubbles?41:01 - The current carry regime?43:38 - Carry in macroeconomics52:48 - What comes after the carry regime?01:05:44 -...
3/23/2022 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 54 seconds
SI184: To Trend Follow or Not To Trend Follow ft. Alan Dunne
In this episode Hari is joined by Alex Gurevich, author, PhD in mathematics and founder of HonTe Investments, to discuss how he values bonds differently to many investors today, how to build a balanced portfolio, the many ways to loose money when buying an option (even if you are "kinda" right) as well as how he makes decisions as a trader, how to manage stress and keep a healthy lifestyle as a hedge fund manager and what the future of the global financial markets may look like.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How different types of bonds are valuatedThe pattern in how many times the FED tends to move rates, once they beginWhy Rate cycles are getting shorter (in time)Why Alex believes that the FED should not raise rates before reducing their balance sheetAlex playbook for the Ukrainian crisis: Oil could collapse to $40 and Rates could go back to zeroHow your performance can end up defining who you are (if you are not careful)The synchronisation of the central banks and how the future might look for the global financial market-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Alex on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:42 - Introduction to Alex and his background07:20 - How Alex think about bonds16:37 - Have bonds become more important since 2008?18:15 - Making decisions as a trader, and handling victories and defeats28:01 - Why did Alex...
3/16/2022 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 33 seconds
SI183: Nickel Short Squeeze & Trend Following in an Unstable World ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins me in today’s episode to discuss trend following as a robust guide to the markets in a world of instability and insecurity. We also discuss the recent short squeeze in nickel which has led to an unprecidented response from the LME, how to develop a trend following system, and what to do if you miss a breakout trade. We dive into when to trade index-based products vs. single stocks, how to manage trailing stops, and Jerry's decision to stop doing trend following research and rounding off our conversation with interesting and somewhat provocative tweets from Jerry. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Trend following and volatility in relation to the current situation in UkraineThe recent short squeeze in nickel trading and the reaction from the LMETips and tricks to grow as a trend followerHow to develop a good trend following systemHow to manage trailing stopsHow Jerry managed his short Russian stock positionWhat Jerry will focus on as he stops doing Trend Following Research-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:40 - Summary of the week08:03 - What happened this week with nickel trading14:53 - Q1, Josh: Any tips and tricks for Trend Following investing and ETFs?31:57 - Q2, William: How do you react following a missed breakout?37:11 - Q3, ABE: Is it wise to avoid Index-based products and how to trade CTA Index Futures? How do CTAs as an industry, become part of the financial zeitgeist going...
3/12/2022 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 45 seconds
ALO05: Better than Alpha ft. Chris Schelling
In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Chris Schelling, Chief Investment Strategist at Venturi Private Wealth and author of the book “Better Than Alpha”, to discuss asset allocation and how assets are managed in the private space vs institutional space, about disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard, the evolution of the industry over the years, the role of liquidity in asset allocation, the use of Alpha and Beta in investment, what it takes to be a skilled manager and the risk of manager selection.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How are assets managed in the private space vs institutional spaceBiases in asset allocation and how to overcome them.Using Alpha, Beta and other investment strategiesDue diligence and things to avoid in the processThe risks of manager selection and what it takes to be a good manager.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Chris Schelling on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:23 - About Chris’s background and his role at Venturi12:45 - Disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard17:54 - How the industry has evolved over the years21:56 - Is private equity less...
3/9/2022 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 23 seconds
SI182: Trend Following in Times of Crises ft. Rob Carver
Today Rob Carver joins me to discuss how the Trend Following world is reacting to the aweful situation in Ukraine and how it affects markets and volatility, discussing the moral aspects of trend following in times of crises and we take lots of questions from our community regarding how to handle parabolic market moves, if trend following is over-crowded, who we believe is the next David Harding, how to allocate to different speeds of Momentum/Trend Following as well as thoughts on rebalancing assets and portfolios and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How the aweful situation in Ukraine affects trend following and volatilityRebalancing strategies within your portfolioThe advantage of systematizing your tradingWhen I sat down with the founds of AHL at Abbey Road Studios-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:15 - Update on markets05:50 - What has caught attention and review on performance27:08 - Status on Rob’s book29:27 - Q1, Harry: What might next frontier be that seems silly today, but common sense later? Who's the next David Harding?34:04 - Q2, Ravi: What are the implications to the markets and the wider global economy?39:00 - Q3, Zoran: How do you navigate through such events (war in Ukraine) as a systematic investor?46:00 - Q4, Richard: If trend following ever became overcrowded, could you identify it and would you take any action?51:55 - Q5, Y:...
3/5/2022 • 1 hour, 25 minutes, 7 seconds
ALO04: Insights from the Queens Bank CIO ft. Alan Higgins
On today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Alan Higgins, the CIO and Chief Market Strategise of Coutts UK, also known as the Queens Bank, to discuss sound ways to invest in today’s environment, Alan’s interest at an early age in how to earn a risk premium, being a 60/40 investor and how the strategy will evolve, asset management vs. wealth management, distressed debt investing, behavioural biases, inflation, equity and interest rates, as well as the Yale Approach finishing off with some book recommendations on asset allocation and investing.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:What the 60/40 portfolio will look like in the next decadeThe surprise of markets ability to trendThe value of Risk Mitigation, but how it’s not enoughInsights to the inflationary period in the UK under Nigel LawsonWhy this time feels differentLessons from the 1987 Crash-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Alan Higgins on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:05 - Alan’s background and current role04:44 - Risk premium and fixed income24:33 - Setbacks and drawdowns26:45 - Inflation35:06 - Interest rates, bonds and dividends43:22 - Asset allocation and portfolio construction46:18 - Alan’s role at Eighteen48 Partners48:33 - David Swensen and the Yale...
3/2/2022 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 1 second
SI181: The Power of Trend Following ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the power of Trend Following during periods of heightened uncertainty, Trend Following applied to the ESG space, how endogenous price shocks cause longer-term trends, the new Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report, shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term, and how ‘buy the dip’ investors are likely unprepared for sustained underperformance in stocks.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Why now might be the best time to be invested in Trend Following strategiesHow systematic investing can be applied to the ESG spaceThe cause of longer-term price trendsThe Top Traders Monthly Trend Following reportThe best lookback period for Trend Following modelsThe need to diversify away from the ‘buy the dip’ mentality-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:49 – Macro recap from Niels06:40 – Weekly review of performance16:35 – Thoughts on Niels, Rich & Jerrys’ LinkedIn conversation with Harold De Boer of Transtrend23:16 – Q1; Frank : How do you see Trend Following strategies fitting into the ESG space?31:43 – Why we developed the Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report51:55...
2/27/2022 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 30 seconds
ALO03: Lessons from a $25 billion CIO ft. Elizabeth Burton
Alan Dunne is joined today by Elizabeth Burton to discuss managing a public fund versus a private fund, the challenges to those invested in the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, the current outlook for inflation, performing above expectations, how to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation, fixed income versus real assets, categorising asset classes effectively, the limits of mean variance optimisation, using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making, difficulties in the manager selection process, and how to simplify complex ideas in order to communicate more efficiently.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The outlook for inflationAchieving high performance consistentlyHow to re-allocate a portfolio accordinglyMean variance optimisationWhether this time is differentSelecting the right managerSimplifying complexity for better understandingFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:30 - Elizabeth’s background and history in the investment world04:55 - Elizabeth’s perspective on today’s markets06:52 - Managing a public fund versus a private fund08:14 - Performing above expectations09:38 - The current outlook for inflation11:31 - How to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation13:57 - Fixed income
2/23/2022 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 46 seconds
SI180: Data Versus Stories & The "Moscow Rules" ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How Trend Following differs to momentumAvoiding the need to make predictionsThe Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategiesARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performanceThe similarities between Trend Following and optionsHow to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clientsThe “Moscow Rules"-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:02 – Macro recap from Niels04:39 – Weekly review of performance23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk 42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum01:00:58 – Molecules of prices01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to apply the ‘Moscow...
2/19/2022 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 24 seconds
ALO02: Properly Diversifying a $1.6Trillion Portfolio ft. Sebastien Page
Alan Dunne is joined today by Sebastien Page to discuss how price shocks affect correlations, approaches to strategic asset allocation, how to position portfolios for the years ahead, the current outlook for equities their various sectors, investing in a rising interest rate environment, responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets, defining and achieving utility maximisation, the merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis, how to properly diversify a portfolio, the durability of treasury bonds, lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams, achieving a state of ‘flow’, and how to simplify complex financial topics.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Ever-changing market correlationsStrategic asset allocationResponding to interest rate changesAchieving utility maximisationMean variance analysisPortfolio diversificationTreasury bondsHigh performance teamsSimplifying complexityFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Sebastien on LinkedIn & read his book.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about09:39 - Current view on the markets13:37 - How to position portfolios...
2/16/2022 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 7 seconds
SI179: A New Golden Era for Trend Followers ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins me to discuss how the change of tone from central banks can affect markets globally, Trend Following in a rising interest rate environment, the case for and against including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio, how managed futures Trend Following can help investors throughout ever-changing markets, the future of the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s new Top Traders Unplugged Allocator Series, and why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following strategies.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How central bank signalling affects risk appetite around the worldHow Trend Following might perform in a rising interest rate environmentIncluding carry trades in a Trend Following portfolioHow managed futures can help investor throughout ever-changing marketsThe viability of the 60 /40 portfolio going forwardWhy a new golden era for Trend Following might be emerging-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:36 - Macro recap from Niels05:29 - Weekly review of returns09:55 - How the change of tone from central banks affects the markets18:29 - Trend Following in rising interest rate environment25:19 - Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio36:12 - The future of the 60 / 40...
2/12/2022 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 37 seconds
ALO01: Adapting to Market Cycles ft. Phil Huber
Alan Dunne is joined today by Phil Huber, in the first of our new Allocator Series, to discuss the education gap that needs to be filled regarding efficient capital allocation, the typical clients and types of portfolios that Phil deals with, adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles, defining ‘alternative investments’, the extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed, traditional versus alternative investments, the challenges of manager selection, cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator, and how to manage difficult conversations with clients.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Better education around capital allocationAllocating capital throughout various market cyclesHow to define an ‘alternative investment’How actively we should manage a portfolioTraditional versus alternative investmentsThe difficulties in the manager selection processBeing a great behavioural investor as an allocatorDifficult conversations with clientsAdvice for aspiring capital allocatorsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Phil on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:44 - How 2022 has been for allocators so far03:13 - Phil Huber’s journey into investing05:46 - Why Phil wrote a book on capital allocation09:00 - The typical clients, and types of portfolios that Phil deals with12:07 - The 60 / 40...
2/9/2022 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 58 seconds
SI178: Value Investing vs Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the importance of hanging on to your outlier winners, value investing versus trend following, the optimum number of entry & signals per trade, the need to redefine ‘safe assets’, Jerry & Richard Brennans’ thoughts on Howard Marks’ remarks about Trend Following, risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio, the unpredictability of endogenous outliers, and deconstructing the old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Letting winners run and cutting losses earlyUsing 1 entry signal and 1 exit signal per trade versus multiple signalsRedefining what are typically known as ‘safe assets’Howard Marks’ opinion on following priceAchieving effective risk parity within a portfolioHow endogenous outliers are hard to predict-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:44 – Macro recap from Niels05:24 – Weekly review of performance11:51 – Jerry & Rich’s thoughts on Howard Mark’s opinion of Trend Following24:46 – Why exit rules might be harder to create than entry rules43:45 – Risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio51:03 – The unpredictability of endogenous outliers01:10:08 – The old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’01:13:54 – Benchmark performance update01:15:01 A huge thank you to listeners of the...
2/6/2022 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 57 seconds
VOL10: Why We All Need Volatility ft. Cem Karsan
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Cem Karsan, to discuss feedback loops across different markets, the decision to manage outside money, how institutions make trading decisions, the global macro effects from COVID-19, the importance of dealer flows in the markets, the feedback loop between options and their underlying assets, and approaches to delta hedging.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How market behaviour is often intertwinedWhy Cem chose to manage outside capitalThe thinking behind institutional market movesHow the global pandemic affected marketsDealer flowsFeedback loopsDelta hedgingFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Cem on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:17 - Cem’s background, and current work19:18 - The decision to manage outside money24:06 - The trades that institutions like to make30:22 - Feedback loops within markets34:17 - The dynamic between futures and options51:15 - Using Econophysics to find hedging methods53:40 - Building various volatility models and research using toy models57:05 - Approaches to Delta hedging01:00:11 -Changes to qualitative features of overnight indices01:03:12 -Investment products on the VIX and effects on the S&P 50001:10:09 -The feedback loop...
2/2/2022 • 1 hour, 22 minutes, 55 seconds
SI177: The Value of Price ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how Federal Reserve policy affects the Trend Following environment, the benefits of scaling into and out of positions, Howard Marks’ opinion on the value of price, the factors that drive commodity prices, why typical inflation-hedges may not be as reliable as their reputation implies, how Trend Following is the perfect way to complete your portfolio, and the differences between a ‘trend chaser’ and a trend follower.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Central bank policies and their effects on Trend Following performanceThe benefits of having multiple entries and exits across different timeframesHoward Marks’ recent thoughts on trading price action onlyThe status of the commodity marketsHedges against inflationCreating the perfect portfolio using Trend FollowingTrend Following versus ‘trend chasing’-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:05 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:36 – Macro recap from Niels06:22 – Weekly review of performance15:10 – Q1; Zack : Has there been any research into how systematic investing improves ones performance over discretionary investing?41:24 – Making...
1/30/2022 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 54 seconds
VOL09: The Magical Properties of Money ft. David Orrell
Hari Krishnan is joined today by David Orrell, to discuss the problems with using physics analogies on financial markets, the cause and effects of price impacts, David’s new book: ‘Money, Magic, and How to Dismantle a Financial Bomb’, the magical properties of money, how sentiment drives price although it is so unpredictable in nature, the similarities between weather forecasting and economics, the sustainability of money creation by central banks, and some thoughts on cognitive interference.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How quantum physics relates to financial marketsThe mechanics behind price impactsDavid’s new book, coming out soonThe magical characteristics of moneyThe power and unpredictability of sentimentWeather and how it relates to financial marketsCentral bank money creation and how effective it can beCognitive interferenceFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow David on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:54 - Can you give us some conclusions from the research you’ve done on weather forecasting?04:33 - Is the notion of the economic system as being something that’s mechanistic and can be controlled flawed, and if so, how?07:12 - Do you look at different economic models and aggregate the data?12:46 - Is there a way to limit the momentum effects of passive investing on the markets?17:41 - Can you explain how quantum physics
1/26/2022 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 19 seconds
SI176: The Origin of Outliers ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us this week to discuss how to spot potential outlier trades before they occur, the power of simple trading rules over complexity, why endogenous events move markets 90% of the time and news events are behind only 10% of large market moves, how Trend Following models safely reduce risk exposure automatically as drawdowns increase, how to approach correlated markets in your portfolio, how to achieve diversification with limited capital, the Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and the differences between Trend Following and ‘Trend Trading’.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Spotting patterns among previous outliersSimplicity over complexityHow little the news really moves marketsProfessional Trend Following versus 'Trend Trading'The ability of Trend Following models to automatically reduce open risk during drawdowns-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:19 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:41 – Macro recap from Niels04:13 – Weekly review of performance11:14 – Q1; Jonathan: What are the parameters that indicate a high chance of an outlier trade?17:22 – Q2; James:...
1/23/2022 • 1 hour, 28 minutes, 31 seconds
VOL08: Adaptation To Change ft. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Co-Founder & Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, to discuss how news drive price action, and some of the science behind the large price movements, how we should think about adapting to changing dynamics such as correlations, Jean-Philippe’s background in physics and journey into finance, the effectiveness of the Bloomberg terminal, using dimensional analysis for research purposes, the inelastic market hypothesis, differentiating yourself as a Trend Follower, and the connection between volatility strategies and high frequency data.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The extent to which news drives price actionHow to look at ever-changing market dynamics, such as correlationsJean-Philippe's journey into financeThe reliability of the Bloomberg terminalDimensional analysisThe inelastic market hypothesisStanding out in the Systematic Investor spaceVolatility strategies and if they have any connection to high-frequency dataFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Jean-Philippe on LinkedIn.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:38 - What area of physics did you work in, and how did you come into finance?05:04 - Can you elaborate the paper you worked on, where you where you investigated the endogeneity of large price moves?15:24 - How timely do you consider the Bloomberg feed to be? Is it quick...
1/19/2022 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 20 seconds
SI175: A Winning Approach to Risk ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the different ways that Trend Following is perceived by investors, the optimum amount of positions to trade at once, rating the riskiness of various investment strategies, Trend Following on the VIX, suitable risk amounts per market, what to do with the free cash in your futures account, if Trend Followers pyramid positions, trading CFDs and dealing with transaction costs, and the best lookback period when measuring correlations.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The perception of Trend Following among various types of investorsHow many positions to trade at onceThe ‘riskiness’ of various investment strategiesCombining Trend Following and Volatility strategiesRisk-per-futures contractHow much cash to keep on the sidelines and what to do with itPyramiding positionsCFD trading and navigating commissionsMeasuring correlations effectively-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:24 - A huge thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes. Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 04:47 - Macro recap from Niels08:17 - Weekly review of returns11:01 - How has your new approach been working out, Rob?19:33 - Q1; John: How should I approach...
1/16/2022 • 1 hour, 26 minutes, 6 seconds
VOL07: Participate & Protect ft. Dave Dredge
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Dave Dredge, to discuss how long-volatility strategies can improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the concept of ‘participate and protect’, the importance of understanding why compounding is the ultimate goal, the ‘always good weather’ portfolio, trading Bitcoin volatility, being a ‘value buyer’ of volatility, mechanisms for taking profits, and how to size portfolio allocations properly.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How to improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolioDave’s concept of ‘participate and protect’The importance of compoundingDave’s ‘always good weather’ portfolioLong-volatility Bitcoin strategiesValue investing in the volatility spaceMethods for taking profitsSizing portfolio allocationsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Dave on LinkedIn.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:01 - How did you end up in the long-volatility sector?04:55 - How options used to be considered as a redundant trading method07:53 - Do you have any idea why the Bitcoin skew is so high and flat?08:56 - What does it mean when you say you consider yourself a value-buyer of volatility?10:15 - Do you have any notion how to mix the various positions you warehouse?15:46 - How do you source good ideas, and has living in Singapore given you an edge for...
1/12/2022 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 41 seconds
SI174: The Future of Trend Following ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss what the future could look like without central bank liquidity being pumped into the markets, macro versus quantitative trading approaches, how to avoid crowded strategies, some post analysis of a trend following research paper, whether CTAs are being gamed by other participants, analysing the various methods of price trend measurements, what may have caused a more difficult trading environment for Trend Following strategies in the 2010s, and the economic factors that lead to great periods for Trend Following.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:What markets could look like without Federal Reserve liquidity injectionsMacro versus quantitative approachesAvoiding crowded strategiesWhat it was like to trade through 2018How market participants may try to game Trend FollowersMeasuring the strength of price trendsReviewing the performance of Trend Following during the 2010sWhich economic factors could drive strong Trend Following performance-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro00:58 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes02:34 - Macro recap from Niels05:02 - Weekly review of returns12:22 - Q1: Brett; How do you define a...
1/10/2022 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 34 seconds
VOL06: Finding True Value in the World of Volatility ft. Benn Eifert
On today’s episode, Hari Krishnan is joined today by Benn Eifert, to discuss running a volatility fund, the benefits that Benn gets from using Twitter, how to effectively serve clients as a volatility trader, the drawbacks of hedging via ETFs, monitoring market flows, the popularity of short-dated options, implied volatility versus realised volatility, how correlations change over time, balancing family-life with managing a fund, and the new normalisation of working from home.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:A behind the scenes look at running a volatility fundHow to use Twitter as an investorBringing value to clients as a volatility traderHedging via ETFsMarket flowsOptionsImplied volatilityFinding a good work & life balanceFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Benn on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:20 - How did you end up running a Volatility fund?06:39 - Why did you join a Vol fund instead of a Global Macro fund?09:30 - What do you gain from being on Twitter?11:50 - Explain some of the methods behind how you serve your clients16:19 - What are some of the weaknesses of hedging via ETF products?19:44 - Do you find a lot of value in monitoring the flows into various markets?23:34 - Why is it people are so eager to sell shorter-dated options?26:17 -...
1/5/2022 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 52 seconds
SI173: ‘Trend Following + Nothing’ Part Two ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich
Today we continue our special Part 2 end-of-year episode featuring all co-hosts of the show, together at the same time, to discuss why you should be invested in numerous different markets, why more Trend Following firms should be trading single stocks, the optimum amount of systems to run at the same time, whether diversifying across markets or diversifying across systems is more important, some thoughts on positive skew, and defining outliers. We also review how 2021 went for each us, including our best and worst markets to trade, the lessons we learned, and the biggest surprises.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The reasons for trading different marketsWhy Trend Following firms should trade single stocksThe optimum amount of systems to run at the same timeDiversification across markets versus across systemsSkewnessHow to define outliers-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:20 - Would you rather trade 100 markets with 1 system, using 10 different timeframes? or would you rather...
1/2/2022 • 1 hour, 33 minutes, 1 second
TTU119: The Secret to becoming Richer, Wiser, Happier ft. William Green
SI172: ‘Trend Following + Nothing’ Part One ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich
We have a special end-of-year episode for you today, featuring all of us together for the first time, to discuss why we are so passionate about Trend Following, the case for being a Trend Following purist, how to stay perfectly diversified, the art & perils of hunting outliers, the outlook for Trend Following performance, when and how to manually override a trading system, how to stay prepared for unexpected volatility events, and how to know if adjustments to a trading system are going to result in improved performance.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Some of the reasons for being a systematic investorThe case for Trend Following as the only strategy in your portfolioTips for effective diversificationWhy you should be Hunting OutliersHow Trend Following performance might look like in the futureIf and when you should override your trading rulesStaying ready for unexpected shocks in the marketsGauging the effectiveness of adjustments to a system-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:42 - ‘Has...
12/25/2021 • 1 hour, 28 minutes, 12 seconds
TTU118: TRILLIONS...The Passive Revolution ft. Robin Wigglesworth
SI171: Machine Learning - Pros & Cons ft. Hari Krishnan
Today we’re joined by special guest, Hari Krishnan, to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of machine learning-based trading strategies, successful funds that utilizes machine learning investment techniques, defining machine learning and comparing it with artificial intelligence, how Trend Following can best integrated with machine learning, the history of machine learning in the investment world, and we also answer some of your questions, such as how to select signals for a smaller trading account.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The reasons for and against machine learning trading strategiesIf any funds have successfully implemented machine learningWhat defines machine learningThe history behind machine learning-based trading stylesHow to manage smaller trading accounts, when it comes to signal selectionHow to time the entry into trend following funds-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:25 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes02:38 - Macro recap from Niels04:52 - Weekly review of returns09:58 - Q1; Daniel: How do I choose which signals to take when too many arise for a small account?15:21 - Q2; Mervin: Do you have any advice for finding low-risk entry points into...
12/19/2021 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 50 seconds
SI170: 'Don’t Try This At Home' ft. Rob Carver
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how to approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade, mean reversion trading strategies, how to invest in globally diversified systematic Trend Following CTAs, ‘buying the dip’ in the S&P 500, static and dynamic optimisation when trading smaller accounts, and the inclusion of more obscure markets into a Trend Following system.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How to effectively approach position-sizingSome methods for investing in Trend Following CTAsIf 'buying the dip' in the S&P 500 is a good strategyPortfolio optimisationTrading lesser-known markets-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:12 - A big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes. Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:23 - Macro recap from Niels04:24 - Weekly review of returns09:12 - How do you approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade?18:42 - Check out my new blog post: How to Invest with the Best20:01 - Q1 & Q2; Abbey: Should I switch to a mean-reversion strategy when...
12/12/2021 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 19 seconds
TTU117: Strategic Risk Management ft. Cam Harvey & Rob Carver
Richard Brennan returns today to discuss the misconception of volatility as risk, thoughts on the various measures of risk, drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip’ in Trend Following strategies, how Richard thinks about risk, the relationship between volatility and risk, and the differences between convergent and divergent traders.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Why volatility might not always mean that a model is riskyThe best way to measure true riskHow to 'buy the dip'What Richard thinks about riskThe relationship between volatility and riskConvergent versus divergent trading-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:58 – Announcement of very special Systematic Investor episodes over Christmas featuring Niels, Jerry, Moritz, Rob & Rich together for the first time02:23 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:57 – Macro recap from Niels06:04 – Weekly review of performance16:19 – Drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip’ in the Trend Following strategies23:10 – Check out our upcoming midweek-episode with guests Cam Harvey and Rob Carver24:25 – How Richard thinks
12/5/2021 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 15 seconds
TTU116: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio ft. Steve Foerster
If we could gather all of the famous investing pioneers from world history into one room and ask them to build the perfect portfolio, what would it look like? Well Steve Foerster and his co-author (and previous guest on the show) Andrew Lo, set out to do just that, with their new book called 'In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio'. I thought I'd invite Steve onto the show to discuss his new book, go through some of the 'golden threads' of investing that he came across, his journey in the world of finance, and of course, get his opinion on how close Trend Following is to 'the Perfect Portfolio'.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Steve's journey to becoming a Professor of Finance and how he ended up co-authoring a book with Professor Andrew LoSome of the concepts from the legendary financial experts they interviewed for the bookHow closely linked the academic world of finance really isAbout some of the most important findings in investment research over the decadesAbout the "untold" story of an early 20th-century mathematician, Louis BachelierHarry Markowitz' storyWhat Eugene Fama's Perfect Portfolio looks likeAbout William Sharpe and his now famous 'Sharpe Ratio'How the phrase 'beta' came aboutHow computers enabled researchers to access deeper insights into the world of investingAbout the debate between active and passive investingWhether volatility should still be considered as a measure of riskAbout the progression of volatility data into today's investment modelsAbout the story of Eugene FamaHow Steve views the question of 'what is the perfect portfolio?'Whether Steve considers Trend Following investing as, essentially, a perfect portfolio-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the...
12/1/2021 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 57 seconds
SI168: The Trading Secrets of Trend Followers ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how markets will react to the likely upcoming tapering policies of central banks around the world, how Trend Followers overcome uncertainty, the reasons for and against overriding trading models, the historically optimum balance between bonds, stocks, and Trend Following, how trading non-correlated assets usually results in profitable long-term performance, and why longer-term trading systems tend to achieve the highest returns over time.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Overcoming the uncertainty in marketsWhen to override your system, if everBalancing between difference asset classesThe need to trade non-correlated assetsWhy longer-term systems achieve higher win percentages-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:03 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:26 – Macro recap from Niels03:50 – Weekly review of performance09:12 – Q1; Glen: Can you give me some feedback on my equities Trend Following system?18:00 – Discussion on Central bank tapering42:15 – Clearing up some of the current discourse around inflation55:19 – Discussion on overriding...
11/28/2021 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 24 seconds
VOL05: Maintaining Liquidity & Cash Efficiency ft. Zed Francis
Jason Buck is joined today by Zed Francis to discuss the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, achieving a negative a correlation to equities during market downturns, what Zed calls the ‘3 trading levers’, profiting from institutional volatility players, problems with some long-volatility strategies, when a discretionary approach is needed, how to adjust a portfolio if volatility is persisting, some thoughts on the VIX ETF, helping clients to achieve capital efficient accounts, maintaining liquidity for rebalancing during a selloff, and the deeper insight into the global macro landscape that being a volatility expert gives you.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The benefits of volatility strategies to a portfolioHow to profit from large stock market selloffsSome of Zed Francis’s unique approaches to volatility tradingProfiting from institutional volatility tradersWhen to apply a discretionary approachThe VIX ETFHelping clients to be cash efficient in their portfoliosThe need for liquidity during large market movesFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:41 - Why should somebody add volatility or tail-risk strategies into their portfolio?03:10 - Seeking a negative correlation to equities06:16 - Can you explain what you call your ‘3 trading levers’?08:11 - Can you breakdown your approach to combining ‘long gamma’ and ‘short Vega’?13:40 - Do you aim to profit off institutional volatility...
11/24/2021 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 14 seconds
SI167: The Road to Profits is Bumpy ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss trading single stocks while maintaining a systematic approach, the benefits of trading a broad universe of assets, how investors naturally gravitate toward strategies with lesser returns, but hidden risks, why you need volatility in order to gain maximum returns, what to do with dividends as a Trend Follower, and diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying look-back periods.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:A systematic approach to trading single stocksWhy you should trade a broad universe of assetsWhy the best thing to do is often the hardest thing to do as investorsWhy volatility is our friend, especially when it's directionalHow to manage dividends as a Trend Following traderThe best methods of diversification-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:41 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes02:03 - Macro recap from Niels03:10 - Weekly review of returns06:44 - Q1; Robert: How does Jerry select his single stocks to trade?16:27 - Q2; Brian: What does Jerry do with the dividends from the singles stocks he trades?20:20 - Discussion on recent New York Times article, <a...
11/22/2021 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 49 seconds
VOL04: Profiting from Short-Term Volatility ft. Bastian Bolesta
Special guest, Bastian Bolesta, joins Jason Buck today to discuss why volatility strategies should be added to our portfolios, how to keep improving as a trader while not over-optimising your systems, how recent large equity selloffs have affected Bastian’s approach to the markets, the average duration of his long volatility trades, how to weight recent data versus long-term data, trading VIX contracts intra-day, shorter-term Trend Following, momentum trading, mean-reversion strategies, and the cash efficiency of intraday models.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Why we should be invested in volatility strategiesImproving over time but not over-tinkeringHow much markets may have changed in recent yearsThe average duration of volatility tradesRecent data versus long-term dataShorter-term Trend FollowingThe benefits of cash-efficiency within intraday modelsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:09 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?04:09 - How do you overcome the problem of getting better but not wanting to tinker too much?11:03 - How has recent market behaviour affected your approach to volatility trading?22:05 - What is the average duration of your long volatility trades?28:02 - How do you weight recent data versus long-term data?31:07 - How do you look at trading intra-day VIX contracts?37:39 - What gave you the confidence to be able to execute short-term Trend...
11/18/2021 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 33 seconds
SI166: Riding the Waves of Volatility ft. Hari Krishnan
We’re joined by Hari Krishnan today, to discuss the ways in which Volatility strategies can complement Trend Following as a source of portfolio protection, how to manage expectations of investors, some experiences and thoughts from the large volatility events of 2018 and 2020, how to best protect yourself from large market selloffs, how to allocate between Trend Following and Volatility across different timeframes, and the possible effects of sustained inflation may have on volatility strategies.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Complementing Trend Following portfolios with Volatility strategiesMaintaining composure during different market environmentsThe sharp selloffs of 2018 and 2020Sound approaches for re-allocating money at appropriate timesThe resilience of Trend FollowingVolatility strategies during long periods of sustained inflation-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:28 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes02:38 - Macro recap from Niels05:11 - Weekly review of returns11:09 - The ways in which Volatility strategies complement a Trend Following portfolio21:33 - Managing investors’ expectations27:57 - Some experiences and thoughts
11/14/2021 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 24 seconds
VOL03: The Evolution of the VIX ft. Stefan Wintner
In today’s episode, Jason Buck is joined by Stefan Wintner of DUNN Capital, to discuss volatility as an asset class, the evolution of the VIX from its inception until now, some of the mechanics behind the VIX, the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500, some thoughts on ‘volatility relative-value’ trading, the reliability of the VVIX, building and running models during different market environments, thoughts on kurtosis and skew, and volatility as a necessary component for a large Trend Following firm. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Volatility as an asset class of its ownThe journey of the VIX from its early days until nowAnalysing the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500What’s known as volatility relative-value tradingThe usefulness of the VVIXOperating models during different market and economic environmentsKurtosis and skewThe need for Volatility strategies as part of a diversified investment portfolioFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:05 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?04:48 - Do you consider Volatility to be an asset class of its own?05:58 - What was it like during the early days of the VIX market?08:28 - What is the VIX, and what is the calculation that goes into the VIX?14:07 - Tell us a little bit about the relationship between the VIX and S&P 50019:37 -...
11/10/2021 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 48 seconds
SI165: Responsible Investing as a Trend Follower ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The new credibility of cryptocurrenciesScaling into positions using various methodsESG investing as a Trend Following investorHow to select the optimum markets to tradeTrading single stocksEmbracing creativity as a systematic investor-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:14 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes03:12 - Macro recap from Niels06:45 - Weekly review of returns15:04 - Niels: Has your opinion of cryptocurrencies changed since the launch of the new Bitcoin futures ETF was announced?20:04 - Q1; Adam: What is your advice for scaling into positions?28:18 - Q2; Brendan: Do Bitcoin cash-settled futures create a synthetic Bitcoin supply?36:08 -...
11/7/2021 • 1 hour, 25 minutes, 38 seconds
VOL02: Past, Present, & Future Volatility ft. Noel Smith
Today Jason Buck is joined by Noel Smith in the second of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of ensemble investing, the predictability of market volatility, how certain market environments fool investors into thinking they are better than they really are, allocating between different strategies during different market environments, why nothing beats having ‘skin in the game’, balancing judgement calls versus algorithmic calls, pairs-trading VIX & bonds, determining when an asset is cheap or overpriced, and some thoughts on what might happen if markets enter a ‘stagflationary’ environment.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss: Ensemble investing and its benefits Whether market volatility can be predicted ahead of time The ways in which the markets can catch investors off-guard ‘Dialling’ into and out of strategies How Noel’s experience in prop trading and pit trading has helped him today Finding the balance between judgement calls and algorithmic signals Noel’s VIX and bonds pairs trade Assessing the current real value of an asset How to approach investing during a ‘stagflationary’ environmentFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on Twitter.Follow Noel on Twitter, LinkedIn, and via his website.-----Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:06 - Why should somebody add...
11/2/2021 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 37 seconds
SI164: Compounding - The 8th Wonder of the World ft. Richard Brennan
This week, Richard Brennan joins us on the show to discuss how people can benefit from the effects of compounding while others end up a paying a price for it. We also cover some thoughts on ‘path dependency,' why those invested in stocks should diversify using Trend Following strategies, why stable returns can only be correctly judged over long time periods, how to analyse fund performance without being influenced by the effects of compounding, some thoughts on what is known as ‘geometric returns’, and we explain the term ‘ergodicity’.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How to stay on the right side of the effects of compoundingHow many strategies can be limited by the make-up of their previous versionsThe profitable & negative correlation of Trend Following to equities when stocks are fallingThe need to zoom-out when judging performanceThe terms 'ergodicity' and 'path dependency'-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:37 – A Thank you to Shane, our website developer, for his great work in creating the new Top Traders Unplugged website. We hope you all enjoy the new user interface02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: <a href="https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
10/31/2021 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 25 seconds
VOL01: The New Nature of Stock Market Movements ft. Hari Krishnan
Today Jason Buck is joined by Hari Krishnan in the first of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, why it can pay to avoid hedging when the crowd is already doing so, explaining the 'Put slingshot', how markets are different today from decades ago, protection against tail-risk, the psychology behind large markets sell-offs, and some thoughts on the effects of leverage on the markets.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The benefits of tail-risk hedges / adding volatility hedges to your portfolioThe importance of avoiding group think (in hedging)Some thoughts on what is known as the ‘Put slingshot’The new nature of stock market movementsThe repricing of risk during fast downturnsTail-risk protection versus Trend FollowingHow tail-risk protection can complement an existing allocation to Trend FollowingSome of the psychology and mechanisms behind large and sharp market movesHow positioning and leverage end up creating challenging markets to trade inFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on Twitter.Follow Hari on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:59 - Why should somebody include volatility or tail risk into their portfolio?04:35 - Do you think rolling option puts is a good hedging strategy?07:47 - The tradeoffs between near-term and long-term option pricing09:03 - Can you explain the differences between...
10/26/2021 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 7 seconds
SI163: The Importance of Investment Narratives ft. Mark Rzepczynski
This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The future of BitcoinHow money managers can explain their approaches simply to clientsLong, successful, but bumpy track records versus recent strong performersTrend Following's incredible success over 6 decadesThe private equity world compared with systematic investing-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:54 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:49 – Macro recap from Niels04:52 – Weekly review of performance12:33 – Why storylines and narratives matter52:42 – How effectively communicating what we do can be a challenge in any industry55:54 – The strategies that tend that lend themselves
10/23/2021 • 1 hour, 19 minutes, 13 seconds
SI162: Discussing The New Bitcoin Futures ETF ft. Moritz Seibert
We’re joined today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years’ top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The hardest questions in the Turtle Trading entrance examThe SECs' approval of the first-ever Bitcoin futures ETFHow the move toward sustainable investments is affecting current supply chainsOur best performing assets of the year so farHow Bitcoin compares to Gold and if this is a fair comparisonWhich timeframe of Trend Following is best suited for crypto -----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:25 - A huge thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts02:59 - Macro recap from Niels05:51 - Weekly review of returns11:00 - Niels: What’s been the year-to-date standout winner for you?12:40 - Niels: How much of your performance has come from crypto, compared to other non—classical Trend Following assets?24:45 - Niels: It takes money to money, true or false?29:45 - Niels: After a big profit, the next trend following trade is more likely to be a loss, true or...
10/17/2021 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 16 seconds
SI161: Retaking the Turtle Trader Entrance Exam ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers chosen today. We’ve posted the questions in the timestamps below, so feel free to take the test and compare your answers to Jerry’s.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Favouring long or short positionsHow you can go broke taking small profitsReasons to ‘fade the fundamentals’The importance of down-time and vacationsWhether we can rely on opinions of the crowdSystem diversificationWhy you should trade smallThe questions that Jerry would add to the Turtle Trader test todayAvoiding trades due to gaps in price-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:10 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving your 5-star reviews in iTunes, and please share this podcast with a like-minded friend: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:19 - I share a hugely important story to...
10/9/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 47 seconds
SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling & its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recentlyHow to gauge a system's long-term effectivenessSpread betting in the UK as an alternative to futuresHow to raise AUM when starting a new firmThe US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coinAdding parameters to a system -----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes03:03 - Macro recap from Niels05:43 - Weekly review of returns12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or worse than another system26:11 - Q1; Matt: Has Rob ever considered using...
10/3/2021 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 29 seconds
SI159: Embracing Uncertainty for Outsized Returns ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returnsCompounding wealth as a systematic investorHow Trend Following can profit during good times and bad timesData distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus onHow investment terms can often create communication barriersEmbracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:25 – Macro recap from Niels04:10 – Weekly review of performance11:35 – Knowing what to look for in a talented investment manager19:58 – Discussion on the...
9/25/2021 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 2 seconds
SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player.You can find Mark’s latest writings here.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How people appeal more to investors than trading systems aloneHow to spot future star performers in advanceUnconventional approaches to market correlationsThe importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clientsWhy investors tend to copy their peersWhether fund size matters to capital allocatorsHow strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: <a...
9/18/2021 • 1 hour, 30 minutes, 32 seconds
SI157: How to Make Money & Survive in the Markets ft. Jerry Parker
Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can’t always be relied upon.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The case for longer-term strategiesNot over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market conditionHow adding Trend Following to a portfolio increases its robustnessWhy Trend Following firms will be the number one choice among investors in the futureHow to prevent cyber attacksWhy you can't always rely on past correlations to continue-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:32 - A big thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes02:26 - Macro recap from Niels04:43 - Weekly review of returns15:55 - An insight
9/12/2021 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 59 seconds
SI156: The Case for Buying at All-Time Highs ft. Moritz Seibert
Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Why diversifying among systems can be beneficialWhy buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitableClassical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methodsSome good measures for monitoring riskSome tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investingSuitable backtesting software for retail investorsHow to approach negative interest rates with your broker-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:05 - A big thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts03:21 - Macro recap from Niels05:38 - Weekly review of returns18:36 - What Moritz looks for when analysing his backtests26:42 - Q1 & Q2: Derek: What are the most important risk metrics you monitor? If you had to start your Trend Following business from scratch, what would you do differently and what would you keep the same?41:32 - Q3; Joe: Should I prioritise stocks that are working their way...
9/5/2021 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 56 seconds
SI155: How to Create the Perfect Backtest ft. Richard Brennan
This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Which strategies would complement portfolio with 80% already allocated to Trend FollowingWhy 'forward-testing' a system can be quite important before going liveThe art of finding and latching onto outlier performersLeverage, margin, & total portfolio risk-to-stopWhat information to look for in a backtestHow to avoid 'curve-fitting' (and could some curve-fitting be beneficial?)-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:25 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes03:47 – Macro recap from Niels05:57 – Weekly review of performance10:59 – Trend Followers as hunters of outliers13:34 – Q1; Louis: Do...
8/28/2021 • 1 hour, 29 minutes, 7 seconds
SI154: Defining 'Outliers' from a Trend Follower's Perspective ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffsHow a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers'The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following systemDiversification versus 'Di-worse-ification'Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classesThoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positionsRich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared'-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes02:31 – Macro recap from Niels11:17 – Weekly review of performance17:10 – Q1; Adam: At what point does diversification become dilution?22:32 – Q2; Mathew: Have there ever been any years where currencies were your top performers?32:09 – What the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s point of view, as well as some thoughts on the...
8/21/2021 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 9 seconds
SI153: Being Aware of Known & Unknown Risks ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware ofHow macro data can contribute to a profitable trading systemThe true definitions of liquidityFutures markets as the most liquid in the worldWhy a rules-based approach to the markets is so importantThe 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreementTrend Following with markets that are ESG-friendly-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:24 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes02:57 – Macro recap from Niels04:37 – Weekly review of performance09:16 – 'The black hole of Jackson Hole' and the 50th Anniversary of the Bretton Woods...
8/14/2021 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 17 seconds
SI152: Love Your Rules, But Not Your Positions ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futuresThoughts on autocorrelationThe benefits of trading a wide range of marketsHow over-optimisation can result in underperformanceWhy ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as environmentalWhy your rules are more important than any one positionHow decreasing position size can increase a system's profits-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro04:11 - Macro recap from Niels04:44 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes05:25 - Discussion on Ethereum08:34 - Weekly review of returns10:21 - Where...
8/7/2021 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 53 seconds
SI151 Long-Term Profitability vs Short-Term Luck ft. Moritz Seibert
Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How effective Backtests can beApply Trend Following models to synthetic marketsEthereum futuresWhy 'dirty fuel' markets should still be tradedCombining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategyDistinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust systemHow to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:44 - Macro recap from Niels04:41 - Weekly review of returns10:09 - Discussion on Rich Brennan’s findings that a Trend Follower’s edge comes from the market data itself rather than the trading models13:57 - Q1: Henry: Do you recommend any educational resources that will help me to build a spread trading model, and can Moritz talk about his own spread trading model?29:06 - Q2; Daniel: Can inflation market effects be incorporated into Trend Following strategies?36:16 - Q3; Stasius: What techniques do you use to measure whether strategy actually works and isn’t
7/31/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 19 seconds
SI150: Extracting Edges from the Market ft. Richard Brennan
This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Why there may be no such thing as a 'simple' successful Trend Following strategyHow to profit across multiple timeframesHow momentum investing is often confused with Trend Following methodsAverage win rate versus average loss rateWhy inflation is usually a good thing for systematic investorsTrailing stops and risk managementHow many markets are ideal for a profitable Trend Following system-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:31 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes02:18 – Macro recap from Niels04:23 – Weekly review of performance10:24 – Q1; Kushro: Is there a way for the novice rules-based investor to reliably backtest their rules?12:40 – Q2 & Q3; Danny: Can you give an example of how to trade multiple timeframes? How do I manage risk from unrealised profits &...
7/24/2021 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 41 seconds
SI149: Model Anxiety & Algorithm Aversion ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How behavioural finance leaves investors under-allocated to Trend Following strategiesHow to perceive momentum dataWhy the steady flow of market news often has little value for Trend FollowersEmbracing simplicityThe need to avoid too many filters in your systemHow much should be risked per trade-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes03:02 – Macro recap from Niels04:48 – Weekly review of performance11:59 – Q1; James: What are your views on momentum indicators diverging against price action?24:56 – Q2; Frank: What is your view on the relationship between the stop and the look-back period?28:52 – Q3; John: Is the 2% rule still a popular and...
7/18/2021 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 23 seconds
SI148: The Importance of Capturing A Few Large Trends ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:28 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes02:02 - Macro recap from Niels12:07 - Q1; Omar: Why isn’t Trend Following more popular as a strategy?31:37 - Q2 & Q3, Q4; John: What percentage of margin to equity was Jerry using during his Turtle Trading days? What kind of margin levels does Jerry use today at Chesapeake? How do you define and differentiate between ‘profit factors’?40:01 - Q5; Mark: What look back periods do you tend to prefer?47:27 - Deep and fast drawdowns versus longer-lasting, shallower drawdowns 50:48 - Adjusting your trading universe by recent performance58:11 - How newer money managers can differentiate themselves from their competitors01:01:04...
7/11/2021 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 31 seconds
SI147: The Perfect Exit Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert
Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possibleOptimal exits from hugely profitable tradesHow to engage in related to your investment approachOver complicating a trading strategyAcceptable margin amountsSpread-trading using a Trend Following strategy-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:28 - Macro recap from Niels03:53 - Weekly review of returns11:01 - The commodities reflation trade and Moritz’s trade in Lumber14:32 - Q1 & Q2; Andreas: How do you justify your fee structure? What long-term returns should we expect from a short-term CTA? At what point does enhancing a strategy become over-complicating it?29:20 - Q3; Mark: What are some of the best look back periods?34:13 - Q4; Frank: Do CTAs place any importance on the Commitment of Traders report?41:14 - Q5; John: What is a normal amount of margin that CTAs use?42:30...
SI145: The 3 D's of Inflation ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Commodity prices falling, even after recent inflation fearsHow price action incorporates all narrativesTrend Following on optionsThe extra costs of short-term tradingSingle stocks versus index futuresIf Technical Analysis forms part of a typical Trend Following systemMark's '3 D's' of inflation-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:37 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes02:32 – Macro recap from Niels06:19 – Weekly review of performance16:53 – Q1; Omar: Why is Trend Following associated mostly to futures?31:32 – Q2; Mohammed: How do I overcome a lack of patience and discipline?35:33 – Q3; Abishek: How does Technical Analysis relate to Trend...
6/20/2021 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 2 seconds
SI144: Why Single Stocks Should Matter to CTAs ft. Jerry Parker
SI143: How Decentralised Is Bitcoin? ft. Eric Crittenden
Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The misconceptions around the safety & profitability of a typical 60/40 portfolioThe recent Federal Reserve decision to tighten fiscal policyEric's last appearance on the show, which was at the exact bottom of the 2020 market crashThe varying speeds of Trend FollowingWhy low-volatility returns may not mean that a strategy isn't riskyOvercoming behavioural biasesManaged futures as a great benefit to investor's portfoliosThe flight out of fixed incomeWhy crypto investors could benefit from Trend FollowingChanging the narrative around Trend Following-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:59 - Macro recap from Niels03:22 - Weekly review of returns10:41 - What could Trend Following bring to the crypto space?16:36 - How can CTAs change the narrative around investing so that they are included in the picture at all times, instead of just when investors are...
6/7/2021 • 1 hour, 26 minutes, 10 seconds
TTU115: Building a Bulletproof Portfolio with Jason Buck of Mutiny Fund
What happens when an unexpected major event occurs and all of your supposedly diversified investments suddenly become correlated, before heading sharply to the downside? Jason Buck and his partner at Mutiny Fund have been thinking about this question for a long-time, and have created a portfolio designed to protect against these ‘Black Swan’, high-volatility events. Jason has been a long-time listener of the show, so it was only right that I invited him on to discuss some of the methods and thinking behind Mutiny Fund, and how these approaches can provide protection and profits during all market environments.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Jason got to where he is todayIf the initial risks Jason set out to protect his clients against, have changedWhy CTAs could be considered ‘long-volatility’ assets that provide protection during broad market selloffs such as 2020The benefits of ‘ensemble’ investingThe opposite requirements of building wealth versus keeping wealthWhy a sample size of 100 years is still just an anomalyWhy the typical ‘diverse’ portfolio might be riskier than investors realiseWhat a ‘long-volatility’ asset looks likeThe history of long-volatility assetsThe term ‘crisis alpha’ and what it means to him and his clientsHow to overcome the challenges of educating investors about volatility-event risksWhether the addition of long-volatility components to portfolios today has affected his initial approachWhy the Sharpe Ratio is often misunderstood as a risk measurement toolHow much, and why, returns vary among different long-volatility managersHow to approach position sizing with black swan events in mindSome of the common investor mistakesHow to choose between different Trend Following managersHow to create a strategy for inflationary and deflationary environmentsIf less-liquid assets can be safely incorporated into a portfolioHow to analyse backtests properlyIf Jason uses Gold and Bitcoin in his long-volatility strategiesWhat keeps Jason up at night in terms of risks-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please...
6/1/2021 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 47 seconds
SI142: How Decentralised Is Bitcoin Really? ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot for number of different futures contracts a good system should trade.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:If Bitcoin is really as decentralised as it's reputed to beAdjusting your system on an individual trade basisWhat to do with your trading profitsDefending against inflationShort-term Trend Following versus long-term Trend Following-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:33 - Macro recap from Niels04:02 - Weekly review of returns12:15 - Rob’s decision to trade Bitcoin futures21:28 - Why Bitcoin may not be so decentralised38:05 - Q1; Dan: Do you think fitting by instrument makes sense for intraday Trend Following?48:43 - Q2; John: Why does Rob only allocate part of his profits back into his portfolio?57:19 - Q3; Peewee: If Rob could only trade 5 or 6 futures markets, which ones would he pick?01:02:54 - Q4; Saed: Do you prefer keeping...
5/30/2021 • 1 hour, 29 minutes, 16 seconds
SI141: Aligning 'Operation Tempo' with your Trading Personality ft. Mark Rzepcyznski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘Operation Tempo’ for your trading personality.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:China's recent banning of Bitcoin trading and miningThe Federal Reserve's announcement of a possible new digital currencyInflation and its effects on tradingThe psychology around drawdownsPrice signals and how they can be distorted by inflationMatching what Mark terms as 'Operation Tempo' with your personality-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:11 – Macro recap from Niels05:49 – Weekly review of performance11:00 – Further discussion on our recent talking point of discretionary versus systematic, including some comments from Top Traders Unplugged community member, Danny13:38 – Q1; Fernando: Does it get easier with time and experience, to endure drawdowns?22:40 – Some of the issues around inflation and how that might affect trading44:30 – Momentum crashes and...
5/23/2021 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 48 seconds
SI140: Down Markets Are Often a Treasure to Trend Followers ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven manager, the similarities between amateur golfers and traders, the point at which a trend has been ‘confirmed’, and conquering the fear of losses.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Why you should prioritise price over any other form of dataHow bad markets for the average investor is often lucrative for Trend FollowersHow mainstream attention to market trends usually means they're about to endWhy money managers shouldn't always try to stand out too muchThe increasing rarity of classical Trend Following CTAsHow to embrace the mentality of cutting losses-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:55 - Macro recap from Niels06:07 - Weekly review of returns13:34 - Stanley Druckenmiller’s recent interview criticising the Federal Reserve16:17 - Q1 & Q2; Shibojet: What are your thoughts about a dynamic trading system that focuses more on what’s working over any given time-period, rather than a static trading system with rigid criteria? Why don’t Trend...
5/16/2021 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 47 seconds
SI139: How to Beat Unpredictable Markets ft. Moritz Seibert
Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the possible advantages of being in a Trend Follower in the cryptocurrency space versus the buy & hold speculators.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Berkshire Hathaways's recent annual general meetingThe likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest ratesHow to overcome the unpredictable nature of marketsThoughts on De-FiIncreasing sustainability requirements of the investment industryThe newer, smaller futures contracts being listed on the CMETrend Following on cryptocurrencies-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:21 - Macro recap from Niels02:49 - Weekly review of returns11:02 - The Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting26:24 - Why Lumber prices are on the rise32:44 - New and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME36:50 - Ethereum futures45:46 - Continued outflows from Cathy Wood’s ARKK innovation ETF46:42...
5/9/2021 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 13 seconds
SI138: The 'Holy Trinity' of Security Selection ft. Rob Carver
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Which stocks to select for a profitable Trend Following systemRob's 'Holy Trinity' for selecting securitiesThe ripple effects of large funds who make large and risky betsThe most profitable holding periods in Trend Following systems'Caveman-style' Trend FollowingHow to hedge against inflationTrend Following's success in rising interest-rate environmentsTesla's recent earnings-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:36 - Macro recap from Niels04:27 - Weekly review of returns09:38 - Discussion on Tesla’s recent earnings25:13 - Q1; Matt via the Top Traders Unplugged free voicemail service: How do you select single
5/3/2021 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 21 seconds
SI137: Can AI Trading Be Better Than Classical Methods? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in relation to historic volatility.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:How a Trend Following approach allows safer access to risky marketsThe differences between Systematic Trading based on macro data versus based on price-onlyHow a top trader should efficiently process new dataModern AI-based Trend Following versus classical Trend FollowingWhether the biggest hedge funds in the world fall victim of being too greedy for AUMWhy you should avoid 'timing the market'The possible secrets of success behind Dunn Capital's near 50-year track record-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:00 – Macro recap from Niels08:46 – Weekly review of performance13:28 – Swedish systematic macro-fund, IPM, closes after losing $4billion during the pandemic28:37 – New style Trend Following with machine learning versus classical Trend...
4/25/2021 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 1 second
SI136: When Investments Become A Religion ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The perils of becoming 'religious' about our investmentsCoinbase's recent stock market listingPosition sizing using historical volatilityBuy & Hold versus Trend Following over long-term look back periodsMean Reversion trading versus Trend-based tradingThe infamous Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:36 - Macro recap from Niels04:37 - Weekly review of returns09:37 - A question for Jerry, from Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?24:44 - ‘Trend Strength’ signals, what they are, and if you should use them26:52 - Whether Trend Followers do actually make market predictions35:49 - A question for Jerry from Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Trend...
4/18/2021 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 52 seconds
SI135: WHY Trend Following is the Safest Investment Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert
Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Over-leveraged hedge funds showing little regard for riskWhat stage of the bull market in stocks we might be inThe rise in commodity pricesTrading in the Chinese commodity marketsThe possible risks of trading in emerging marketsCrypto futures and how they differ from more traditional futures marketsTrend Following combined with other investment strategies for a complete portfoliocall Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:19 - Macro recap from Niels05:22 - Weekly review of returns12:48 - Quant trading firms being ready to pounce on a possible upcoming commodity boom, especially in China31:05 - The departure of some CTAs away from major exchanges, and the fund Archegos blowing up costing billions for major global banks49:25 - Arbitraging bitcoin futures01:00:45 - Q1; Jim: What are your thoughts
4/11/2021 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 19 seconds
SI134: Sticking with Short Positions ft. Jerry Parker
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The case for and against Volatility TargetingWhether Bitcoin can offset any risks from a high-inflationary environmentWhether commodities can be suitable for long-term strategiesThe credibility of NFTs as an asset class Volume analysis as a trading signalVolatility as a measure of risk-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:24 – Macro recap from Niels04:17 – Weekly review of performance31:32 – Q1; Dennis: How can a retail trader with limited capital access the commodity markets?41:47 - Q2; Dennis: How would you deal with big intraday volatility such as in 2020?51:02 - Q3; Cat: Is volume analysis overrated?56:16 - Q4; Gustavo: Why should we be worried about volatility if it is going our way?01:05:52 - Q5; Emra: How often should you recalibrate your system? Why do you recommend not locking in profits early, after unusually sharp portfolio...
3/29/2021 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 25 seconds
SI132: Overcoming Recency Bias for Better Decision Making ft. Mark Rzepcyznski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making, complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investingInterest rates and their effects on the trading marketsHow correlations can increase volatilityThe benefits of a more 'hands-off' approach to policy-making The common perils of 'recency bias'Spotting a discretionary trader just by looking at returnsThe hidden costs behind supposed 'low cost' funds-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:14 – Macro recap from Niels06:36 – Weekly review of performance57:46 – Q1; Mike: How useful do you find capture ratios when analysing performance?1:08:29 – Q2; Andy: What do you think about utilising a CTA or Trend Following ETF?1:14:42 –...
3/21/2021 • 1 hour, 28 minutes, 48 seconds
SI131: Winning Big During An Inflationary Environment ft. Moritz Seibert
Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:Smart ways to manage cash during periods of high inflationStaying humble during long winning periodsThe GameStop short-squeezeNew volatility-based ETFs for CryptocurrenciesWhy analysing the outcome instead of the process may prove costly in the long runCan we still call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:33 - Macro recap from Niels04:45 - Weekly review of performance32:56 - Q1; Daniel: How much do you risk per trade?48:32 - Q2; Karl: When using moving average crossovers, how do you get back into a trade you were quickly stopped out of?53:25 - Q3; Mark: Why should I place short trades if my backtest says long trades are more profitable? Have you looked at synthetic data, going back over 200 years?01:02:58 - Benchmark performance update01:03:52 - Recommended listening or reading this week: <a...
3/14/2021 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 47 seconds
SI130: Volatility-Targeting: The Big Debate ft. Jerry Parker & Rob Carver
We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:The level of active-management that should be involved in controlling open trade equity riskThe benefits and drawbacks of volatility-targetingModern Trend Following methods compared to classical Trend FollowingThe 2020 ‘Covid Crash’ and its possible long-term effects on systematic investingHow important are short positions in a rules-based portfolio?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:45 – Macro recap from Niels03:33 – Weekly review of performance10:10 – Jerry Parker vs Rob Carver debate53:13 – Q1; Michael: Why do you prefer breakouts & moving average cross-overs to other signals?56:58 – Q2; Rene: Do have preferred methods for measuring trend strength?01:05:14 – Q3, Q4, Q5
3/7/2021 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 28 seconds
SI129: Correlation & Volatility…and is holding bonds “Stupid”? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the GameStop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn this episode, we discuss:If holding bonds "stupid"?The problem of being an economic policy engineerWhy we have to make a distinguish between complicated and complex systemsThe value of intuition - coup d'oeil and ClausewitzRobot systematic versus human (discretionary) can you tell the difference? Is there a Turing test and " I Robot"Correlation and volatilityThe poor quality of forecasts - latest from currency markets Due diligence and quality of managers.Intraday trends – are they stable or unstable?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:46 – Macro recap from Niels05:18 – Weekly review of performance01:04:48 – Q1 & Q2; Plamen: Is there an official organisation that studies & publishes data about the CTA industry? Can you speak about the research process you follow and how you generate trade ideas?01:10:49 – Benchmark performance update01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week:
2/28/2021 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 10 seconds
SI128: Investing during Inflationary or Deflationary periods ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:28 – Macro recap from Niels03:30 – Weekly review of performance30:49 – Questions from Antonio: What was Bill & Richard’s performance like before they started the Turtle Trader program? What was Chesapeake’s performance like up until Salem Trading was taken under their wing? What has Trend Following performance been like in the 10 years before 2020? Did Richard Dennis want his Turtles to come up with new ideas? Why did famous Trend Followers stop Trend Following in the 1990s?59:43 – Q1; Mohit: Can you ask Jerry what risk-per-trade he recommends?01:02:36 – Q2; Peter: Has Jerry ever considered running a new ‘Turtle Trading’ experiment?01:13:25 – Benchmark performance...
2/22/2021 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 27 seconds
SI127: Bitcoin's rise to $50,000 & new Ethereum futures ft. Moritz Seibert
Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:16 – Macro recap from Niels04:57 – Weekly review of performance41:32 – Q1; Kevin: In a continuous Trend Following strategy with no stops, is there anyway to minimise the whipsaw action during a trend change?47:10 – Q2; Simon: How do you measure the business risks that aren’t related to market performance?49:59 – Q3; Danny: What are your thoughts on using an overall portfolio-based stop-loss55:14 – Q4; Tsatios: To what extent is hedge fund performance a result of skills in accounting & tax laws, on top of performance in the markets?01:00:56 – Benchmark performance update01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Jim Bianco & <a href="https://themebfabershow.com/episodes/286-%E2%80%93-jeremy-grantham-gmo-what-day-is-the-highest-s1!e4950" rel="noopener...
2/15/2021 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 50 seconds
SI126: GameStop & How to become a Systematic Investor ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro02:25 – Macro recap from Niels04:27 – Weekly review of performance42:32 – Q1; Michael: Should you use the US dollar to hedge against multiple long trades?48:47 – Q2; Dennis: Can you discuss the pros & the cons of scaling in & out of positions?59:22 – Q3 & Q4; Woody: Will continued central bank intervention prevent Trend Following profitability? Will the rise of passive over active investments pose a threat to medium to long-term Trend Followers, in terms of the increased volatility they might create?01:15:39 – Q5; Daniel: When starting a new Trend Following system, should you enter all markets right away, or only enter the positions once new signals arrive?01:21:14 – Q6; Red Eagle: How often do you see a trade that goes long in one pair, and short in another pair, and do you get excited at this? Alternatively, do you worry
2/7/2021 • 1 hour, 38 minutes, 6 seconds
SI125: Will the FED always prevent prolonged market crashes ft. Mark Rzepczynski
SI124: Why smart people often struggle with systematic investing ft. Jerry Parker
Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a robust portfolio actually means.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:41 – Macro recap from Niels03:54 – Weekly review of performance52:18 – Q1; Zack: Are there any known Trend Following strategies that increase position sizes as volatility increases?57:55 – Benchmark performance update01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Paul Singer on the End Game Podcast with Grant Williams, <a...
1/24/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 30 seconds
SI123: The benefits of NOT taking profits too early ft. Moritz Seibert
In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures. Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play out? What are your views on stop-losses?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:40 – Macro recap from Niels05:06 – Weekly review of performance53:15 – Q1; Carlos: Has March 2020 impacted how you view your Trend Following approach?59:14 – Q2; James: Why did Moritz place a discretionary short-trade on Tesla last month? Why does Dunn Capital avoid using stop-losses? What are your most memorable trades?01:12:09 – Q3; Peter: Do you recommend any particular brokers?01:17:30 – Q4; Craig: What are your thoughts on managed futures ETFs?01:20:22 – Benchmark performance update01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Art Berman & <a...
1/18/2021 • 1 hour, 24 minutes, 31 seconds
SI122: Quant vs Discretionary Investing ft. Robert Carver
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro03:07 – Macro recap from Niels03:59 – Weekly review of performance47:20 – Q1; Michael: How many truly diversifying instruments are there, globally?54:42 – Q2; Bruno: As a futures trader, how do you recommend I manage the cash part of my portfolio?01:02:30 – Q3; Kyle: What are your thoughts on scaling in and out of positions?01:08:46 – Q4; Craig: How can Trend Following take advantage of a ‘risk aversion’ environment?01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Matt Levine’s articles Bloomberg, <a...
1/10/2021 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 40 seconds
SI121: How to Design a Profitable Trend Following System
SI119: Trading TESLA & Commodity Breakout ft. Jerry & Moritz
Today we welcome back Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments to your system, and why it can be a good idea to avoid being too skeptical in the markets.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:28 – Macro recap from Niels04:13 – Weekly review of performance12:34 – What is risk management?57:50 – Q1; Michael: When you trade foreign instruments, do you trade them in their native currencies?01:00:54 – Q2; Jim: Does the need for diversification outweigh the benefits of concentrated gains?01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Hidden Forces podcast, Kyle Bass on the Macro Voices Podcast & <a...
12/21/2020 • 1 hour, 22 minutes, 28 seconds
SI118: 2020 Trend Following Recap & safe-havens in 2021 ft. Mark & Moritz
Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the real-world economy, and we also attempt to explain the returns dispersion found among similar strategies this year.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:17 – Macro recap from Niels02:40 – Weekly review of performance13:15 – Moritz: What do you see the narrative for 2021 Trend Following strategies will be?27:07 – Niels: How would your performance look this year if you took out the 2 biggest winners?53:09 – Trend Following as a store of value01:07:42 – Benchmark performance update01:08:32 – Jerry Parker joins us on the show next week. Send in any questions you may have.01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading: In Defense of Trouble Makers by Charlan Jeanne Nemeth & <a...
12/13/2020 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 49 seconds
SI117: Why Stocks and Trend Following is a Perfect Match ft. Moritz Seibert
TTU114: 2021 Market Predictions ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology
I first interviewed today’s guest back in 2015, where he predicted the Dow Jones Index would go to 32,000…a bold call back then. Mahendra Sharma is an astrological investor with an amazing track record of accurately predicting market fluctuations. He has spent his career studying astrological charts and conveying those findings, along with his understanding of human behavior, into a lucrative business giving advice on when to sell and when to hold various commodities, bonds, and currencies. His latest book on 2021 Financial Prophecies will be released in January.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Mahendra got into astrologyWhy he relocated to Kenya as a young manWhy Mahendra pivoted to predicting the global marketsWhy Mahendra stopped predicting big world events after 9/11How he built his financial astrological charts and what he is looking forHow astrological charts are in some ways similar to other statistical based investment approachesHow human behavior fits into the astrological processMahendra’s prediction of Tesla from 2018What are Mahendra’s predictions for 2021What trend the European equities markets will followWhy Mahendra sees an issue with the Euro as we approach 2024The interesting correlation between the year 2021 and the Fibonacci sequenceMahendra’s interesting prediction about Gold for the year 2052Where Mahendra sees the $Dollar bottoming outWhat commodities stand out to MahendraMahendra’s prediction for a potential Bitcoin CRASH in early 2021Why investors should be careful after 2024-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mahendra on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahendra-sharma-a837ba27/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
12/2/2020 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 39 seconds
SI116: How to manage emotions regardless of your performance ft. Moritz Seibert
In today’s episode, we discuss how to effectively manage your emotional stability regardless of trading performance, the true value of Bitcoin and the various catalysts behind its price movements, the importance of being able to get back into a trade you may have recently been stopped out of, managing leverage and volatility in a portfolio, how to approach extreme anomalies in historical price data, and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:0:00 – Intro1:33 – Macro recap from Niels3:17 – Weekly review of performance8:13 – Q1, via voicemail, from Gene in New Zealand: Is it ok to ignore perceived anomalies & outdated occurrences in historical data?20:49 – Q2; Veyana: If I get whipsawed out of a trade and it sets up again immediately after, should I take the trade again?25:26 – Q3; Terrance: How do I control the leverage of my portfolio when utilising volatility parity?32:00 – Q4; Sebastien: How do you separate your self-worth from your net worth?39:49 – Benchmark performance update41:10 – Recommended podcast listening this week: The Vinklevoss Twins on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & Robert Breedlove on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Podcast (Investors Podcast Network)Copyright
11/29/2020 • 1 hour, 48 seconds
SI115: Open trade Equity vs Realized Profits and Value vs Growth ft. Rob and Moritz
Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the relevance of open trade equity compared to closed trade equity, the reported return of value’s reign over growth stocks, combining Trend Following portfolios with other strategies, the important of using significant sample sizes when analysing data, why successful systematic traders tend to have the longest documented returns on record. Questions we answer include: Which type of moving average is generally the most effective in Trend Following? Do you recommend any hedging strategies?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:35 – Macro recap from Niels04:59 – Weekly review of performance27:16 – Q1; Mervin: What investment strategies would you recommending supplementing a Trend Following portfolio with?37:36 – Q2 & Q3; Daniel: How do you think about open trade equity versus closed equity, in terms of drawdowns? Do you have any recommendations for hedging your Trend Following positions?01:03:57 – Q4; Antonio: Which type of Moving Average (SMA, EMA, ALMA etc) is generally the most effective in Trend Following models?01:22:48 – Benchmark performance update01:23:48 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Rauol Pal on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & <a
11/22/2020 • 1 hour, 27 minutes, 47 seconds
SI114: The importance of Short Sellers and Pfizer CEO selling stocks ft. Moritz Seibert
This week, we discuss the importance of short sellers for well-functioning markets, the benefits of trading index futures versus cash equities, diversification in a robust Trend Following system, Pfizer’s CEO selling a majority of his stock holdings around the vaccine announcement, the differences between top independent discretionary traders & professional money managers, and the increasing use of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Questions we answer this week include: Are shorter timeframes going to be more effective than longer timeframes in the future? What are your thoughts on trading less-liquid markets?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:02 – Macro recap from Niels03:09 – Weekly review of performance28:30 – Q1; James: Would your rules suit cash equities only?38:54 – Q2; Anti: Shorter-term strategies seem to have done well in the last 5 years, should we be looking to trade these shorter timeframes, instead of the longer-term timeframes?46:54 – Q3; Michael: What are your thoughts on trading in smaller markets such as butter, rough rice & oats?01:00:18 – Benchmark performance update01:06:07 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Stephanie Kelton on the Macro Voices Podcast & Chris Cole on the Grant Williams...
11/16/2020 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 55 seconds
TTU113: Why Farmland Investments is getting traction ft. Artem Milinchuk of FarmTogether
SI113: The Unknown Market Wizards ft. Jack Schwager
Today, we welcome legendary author Jack Schwager onto the show to discuss his new book ‘Unknown Market Wizards’ and a range of topics such as: what timeframe makes the most successful trader, how the best traders seem to have uncorrelated returns to the overall stock market, why elite traders can often have terrible starts to their careers, how embracing risk management can take returns to a much higher level, what investors should look for in a money manger, mean-reversion versus momentum trading, and a lot more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:27 – Macro recap from Niels02:17 – Weekly review of performance05:01 – Niels: Where do systematic traders tend to rank in your book, compared to discretionary traders? What is the minimum length of track record you looked at, to be considered for inclusion in your book?10:50 – Moritz: To what extent did mean reversion traders feature in your book, versus momentum-orientated traders?16:47 – Niels: How much do you think luck played a part in the results of the traders in your new book?23:01 – Moritz: When you were interviewing the traders in your book, did you, at any time, get the feeling that there were tailwinds, outside of their control, that helped their strategies?27:41 – Niels: Some of the traders in your book blew up their accounts a few times, so can they still be called ‘wizards’ of the market?34:37 – Moritz: There seems to be opposing views on diversification in your book. What are your thoughts on this?39:07 – Niels: How do you think about the slight contradiction of discretionary traders being...
11/8/2020 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 13 seconds
SI112: How and When to improve your trading system ft. Moritz Seibert
In today’s episode, we discuss the continual need for improvements to a system, the importance of good housekeeping when it comes to managing a portfolio, the varying amounts of leverage among CFD brokers, choosing whether to accept outside investment into your strategy or go it alone, using profit stops versus letting your winners run, and the importance of protecting your intellectual property. Questions we answer this week include: How do experienced CTAs trade through limit-down (or limit-up) situations? Can machine learning be useful in Trend Following for more than just risk parity strategies?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:12 – Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆02:30 – Macro recap from Niels04:43 – Weekly review of performance16:38 – Q1; Matt: How do I incorporate external money into my trading strategy, and, alternatively, should I avoid it?34:17 – Q2; Brian: How do experienced CTAs trade limit-down or limit-up situations?46:54 – Q3; Panagiotis: Do you see any other uses for machine learning in Trend Following strategies, other than Risk Parity?01:00:05 – Q4; Craig: Should I stick with my profit targets, or let my winners run?01:04:46 – Benchmark performance...
11/1/2020 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 33 seconds
SI111: Trend Following pros and cons ft. Michael Covel
Legendary Trend Following author & podcast host, Michael Covel, joins us today to discuss the far-reaching popularity of his books, the advantages of allocating to a Trend Following manager rather than DIY trading, managing money for clients vs being an unknown successful private trader, why Trend Following funds should worry about AUM growing to be too large, why Trend Following still deserves an important allocation to any investment portfolio after recent mediocre returns, and whether central bank Quantitive Easing programs have changed the landscape for systematic investors.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:04 – Weekly review of performance10:17 – Moritz: Do you have any new books in the making?13:07 – Announcement of Jack Schwager joining us on the show in 2 week’s time13:16 – Moritz: How is your personal trading going?16:00 – Listener question; Saeed: Which market sectors have the longest trends?28:50 – Moritz: Do you think Trend Following is over-crowded?29:49 – Niels: Is Trend Following’s mediocre performance over the last 10 years a new normal or an anomaly?30:38 – Niels: What are your thoughts on pure Trend Following versus multi-strategy?33:27 – Niels: How have institutional investors’ attitudes to Trend Following changed over the past 20 years?38:24 – Niels: What do you say to those who ask, ‘has quantitive easing killed Trend Following’?41:32 – Niels: What about those who say, ‘fast moving markets have killed Trend Following’?43:34 – Niels: What do you think about managers
10/25/2020 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 52 seconds
TTU112: The Art of Investing ft. Scott Lynn of Masterworks
SI110: US Election and how to trade Cryptos with rules ft. Moritz Seibert
This week, we discuss how markets are handling current US presidential election uncertainty, why a healthy allocation to Trend Following strategies may be needed now more than ever, our thoughts on trading systematically in the cryptocurrency markets, and how to invest in Trend Following funds with relatively low capital. We also answer your questions, including: how do I share the details of my successful trading strategy with my employer, who is a money management firm?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:08 – Special thank you to our listeners03:41 – Macro recap from Niels07:50 – Weekly review of performance25:53 – Q1; Adam: I’m running a crypto Trend Following strategy. How do I minimise the amount of profit lost at tops & bottoms of markets?35:40 – Q2; Brendan: My employer is now interested in using my Trend Following system. Do I handover the code & backtests? If I decline, will they be able to sue me (I built the system using half of my own time, and half during my employer’s time)? Do you have any advice re: incentives?43:38 – Q3; Dr. Doom: Do you have any thoughts on how an Actuary could turn into a Quant trader? What are your opinion on high frequency trading managers?46:45 – Announcement of Michael Covel joining us on next week’s episode51:37 – Q4; Thomas: Is Trend Following still suitable as an investment in a mutual fund format?01:01:48 – Benchmark performance...
10/19/2020 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 41 seconds
SI109: Investing like a legend ft. Perry Kaufman
Systematic trading and Trend Following legend, Perry Kaufman, joins us on the show today to discuss the importance of being comfortable with risk, the benefits of continuously ranking & evaluating markets, the importance of ‘fat tails’ in Trend Following systems, why you might want to use equal risk with every trade, how to avoid being over-correlated, trading single stocks vs indices, opinions on profit targets, and why he generally prefers long trades vs short trades.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:25 – Weekly review of performance06:08 – Niels: How does the content in your book, Trading Systems, inform your decisions when building a system, and what do they mean to you?26:44 – Niels: How do you avoid overfitting your system to accommodate markets that may not perform well in the future?29:28 – Niels: How do you avoid being over-correlated?30:17 – Niels: How does your ranking system work when adding or removing markets from your trading universe?44:19 – Niels: How do you feel about profit targets?53:06 – Niels: Why do you believe Trend Following strategies will always be successful?57:00 – Niels: Have you found in your research that long-sided trades tend work better than short trades, and if so, have any hypothesis as to why that is?01:04:33 – Moritz: What are your thoughts on trading single stocks vs trading the indices?01:09:54 – Niels question for Moritz: How have you incorporated yourself & Perry’s work on Volatility Targeting into your trading?01:21:29 – Niels: Are there any new discoveries that
10/12/2020 • 1 hour, 29 minutes, 52 seconds
SI108: The case for and against the Kelly Criterion ft. Robert Carver
SI107: Best and Worst markets to trade and benefits of adding the S&P500 ft. Moritz Seibert
In this episode, we discuss the best & worst markets for Trend Following strategies in recent years, the benefits of trading & investing across multiple timeframes, how a combined portfolio of Trend Following & the S&P500 has been historically lucrative, the perils of a market that is stuck in a large trading range, and how 3 months can easily change your year-to-date performance. Questions we answer include: What are your thoughts on inflation & fixed income, as they relate to Trend Following? How do commission & other charges affect systematic trading strategies? What is the optimal allocation to Trend Following? Do you have any advice for trading CFDs?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:57 – Macro recap from Niels04:32 – Weekly review of performance32:46 – Q1; James: Why does Moritz seemingly switch his positioning in a market between long & short, some times, and not other times?39:42 – Q2 & Q3; Eduardo: What are your thoughts on inflation, bonds & Trend Following on fixed income? How do commissions and charges affect a Trend Following strategy?59:00 – Q4; Anti: Is Moritz’s system a ‘stop & reverse’ system?01:01:02 – Q5 & Q6; Mikael K: Can you build a trend following trading system based on Options rather than Futures? Do you have any advice for trading CFD’s?01:05:11 – Q7; Michael N: What is the optimal portfolio allocation to Trend Following?01:09:57 – Benchmark...
9/27/2020 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 7 seconds
SI106: Ray Dalio's underwhelming 2020 performance and the FED ft. Moritz Seibert
GM08: Watch out for The Bond Market Vigilantes ft. Jim Bianco
In today’s episode we are joined by Jim Bianco, the president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets.Jim is a true master when it comes to providing objective, data-driven research with a unique perspective and is very generous when it comes to sharing it, which I’m sure you will agree with after listening to today’s conversation.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolTopics Discussed in this Episode:The uniqueness of the 2020 financial crisisHow the Federal Reserve has been aggressively manipulating the bond marketsThe Wealth Effect’ vs free marketsThe current retail stock market ‘mania’The only group who can bring bond markets down: The Bond Market VigilantesThe scale and risk of the Federal Reserve’s borrowing and money printingImplications of the recent, wild price swings in OilHow the Corona Virus may have accelerated trends that were already beginning to occurHow the future may be bright, but the journey to get there may prove to be difficultJim’s thoughts on how to be positioned for the times ahead-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on <a...
8/21/2020 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 14 seconds
GM07: The father of the Yield-Curve indicator ft. Campbell Harvey
In today’s episode we are joined by Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Cam served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago.Although Cam is well-known as being the inventor of the Yield-Curve Indicator, with an eight for eight track record in forecasting recessions in the U.S., he is also involved in crypto and blockchain technology, which made our conversation wide-ranging and super interesting.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolTopics Discussed in this Episode:The ‘Great Compression’ rather than another Great DepressionHow the Yield Curve indicator was signalling a mild recession even before the Corona crisisWhy politician’s would rather have inflation than raise taxesHow 50% of all companies in the S&P 500 were completely unaware of the risk of pandemicsWhy Bitcoin failed as a hedge in its first ever recessionWhy the US Dollar’s days as a world reserve currency are numberedWhy central banks may now feel incentivised to create their own digital currenciesTechnology and how it’s going to unleash opportunities to transact value & human capital on a scale never seen beforeCam’s somewhat rare, positive outlook for the futureWhy peer to peer transactions and lending will be the way forward-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on <a href="https://twitter.com/moritzseibert" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
8/19/2020 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 1 second
SI101: Howard Mark’s comments on managing risk and market cycles ft. Moritz Seibert
SI98: The secret to John. W. Henry's (owner of Liverpool FC and Boston Red Sox) success ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, we’re delighted to welcome Mark Rzepczynski onto the show to discuss his time working with John W. Henry and what J. W. Henry’s ‘secret weapon’ was, the most effective way to gain downside protection, how to overcome behavioural biases in investing, how diversification can reduce profitability during huge trends, how to effectively make the case for Trend Following to potential investors, where returns dispersion among CTAs is stemming from, and one of our favourite topics: how many markets in a portfolio is too many?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:14 – Macro recap from Niels02:53 – Weekly review of performance05:55 – Niels: Can you tell us about your journey to where you are today?10:24 – Niels: Do you think John Henry’s success in sports can be partly down to his previous Trend Following methodologies?12:18 – Niels: How do think we as humans overcome our behavioural biases in investing?14:32 – Moritz: To what extent do systematic CTAs need laser-like focus, compared to others?17:57 – Moritz: How did the day-to-day business of John W. Henry run?21:00 – Niels: What led to John W. Henry eventually dissolving his firm, and what have leading CTAs today, who have been around since then, done right to still be successful?29:02 – Moritz: How many markets in a trading system are too many?42:06 – Niels to Moritz: How do you really benefit from correlation-based position...
7/26/2020 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 57 seconds
GM04: Global Macro from a High Level ft. Larry McDonald
Our guest in todays episode is Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 partners. Julian has decades experience in investment banking on both sides of the Atlantic, and is a true original thinker. We had a highly enjoyable conversation with Julian, who has a unique knack of explaining his frequently controversial views in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. He has a wide knowledge of topics as varied as silver and shale oil, and his historical references ranged from the 2008 crash all the way back to the Black Death in the middle ages.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolTopics Discussed in this Episode:The consistency of the US dollar cycleThe COVID related March funding squeezeWhy Risk Parity strategies might be a bad idea going forwardThe many visible signs of ‘the Fourth Turning’ and why global markets are at an inflection pointUnemploymentWhy recent Federal Reserve liquidity injections into the market may not have been part of Quantitative Easing (QE), which could still be yet to comeYield curve controlThe independence of the FedWhy Bitcoin may be a dangerous long-term investmentFinancial repressionWhy government bond yields may struggle to rise againThe history of global pandemicsHow market cycles tend to repeat themselvesThe importance of central bank policies when trying to gauge markets-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Julian on <a href="https://twitter.com/julianmi2" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
7/14/2020 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 27 seconds
SI96: How RobinHood really makes its profits ft. Moritz Seibert
SI89: Trend Following EFTs and Asness vs Taleb ft. Rufus Rankin
We’re joined by special guest, Rufus Rankin of Ampersand Investment Management, to discuss Trend Following ETFs, the definition of a truly diversified portfolio, flat-fees versus performance-based fees, how to choose between different managers, learning from Q1 2020, predicting CTA returns, and the recent public spat between Cliff Asness & Nassim Taleb. Questions we answer include: Are Trend Following CTAs seeing an increase in client interest after this year’s stock market crash? What non-USA or Europe markets are CTAs currently interested in?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:26 – Macro recap from Niels04:06 – Weekly review of performance07:20 – Niels: How what was your journey into this industry?08:57 – Niels: How did you end up allocating capital to CTAs?10:05 – Niels: Do you view Trend Following as a philosophy?12:50 – Niels: What are your thoughts about truly diversified portfolios?17:28 – Moritz; If we can’t forecast CTA returns, do you think we should allocate capital to as many CTAs as possible?20:02 – Niels: What percent of a whole portfolio would you recommend to Trend Following, and what would investors be comfortable with?19:02 – Moritz; Do you only allocate to Trend Following CTAs?22:41 – Moritz; Do you consider yourselves to be a ‘fund of funds’?23:11 – Moritz; How do you handle client pressure surrounding double-layering of fees?24:17 – Niels: Who do you think drives the demand for flat-fees, rather than performance-based fees?26:03 – Niels:...
SI87: Dealing with stress when you bring down a bank ft. Nick Leeson
We’re joined today by special guest Nick Leeson, who is famous for the collapse of Barings Bank, one the oldest banks in the world at the time, to discuss liquidity risk in the markets, dealing with stress in extraordinary situations, the benefits of asking yourself the difficult questions, problems when interpreting vast amounts of data, what Nick looks for when investing today, the importance of communicating your feelings, and lots more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:43 – Macro recap from Niels03:16 – Weekly review of performance05:18 – Niels: What key decisions have shaped your life so far?07:59 – Niels: Can you describe the period between 1992 & 1995?12:44 – Niels: What do you remember about the supposed ‘complex’ products that your were trading?16:19 – Moritz: What was it like trading in Indonesia?20:06 – Moritz: How did you end up being sent abroad to run a business for a bank?26:34 – Moritz: What type of products did you trade at the SIMEX?29:32 – Niels: What are things you look for in a person or organisation you would want to invest with?34:57 – Niels: You advise large businesses, so what are the discussions you are currently having with your clients?49:39 – Moritz:What was your thinking & process while attempting to recover huge losses?55:41 – Niels: Do you talk with your clients about a market’s liquidity risk?58:53 – Niels: How has electronic trading made markets more liquid or less liquid?01:02:16 – Niels: Do you see similarities between today’s scandals, and the behavious of past financial scandals?01:05:49 – Moritz: How do you trade today, and what do you think is important is for good trading?01:11:23
SI85: Similarities between the market crashes of 1987 and 2020 ft. Nick Radge
Today, special guest Nick Radge joins us on the show to discuss similarities between the market crashes of 1987 and 2020, the players behind the recent Oil volatility, the importance of avoiding trading paralysis, how to behave like a successful investor, developing different strategies for different market environments, how Nick fell in love with Trend Following from an early age, and more. Questions we answer include: How do you incorporate risk management into your strategies? What trading books do you recommend?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:05 – Macro recap from Niels04:04 – Weekly review of performance05:42 – Niels: For some context, tell us about little about your journey in trading so far.17:58 – Niels: How have you made Trend Following strategies work on stocks?22:48 – Niels: Why have you chosen to only trade equities on the long-side?34:21 – Niels: How do you operate your different types of trading systems? Do you always run them at the same time?38:37 – Moritz: How do you help your clients today?48:29 – Moritz: Do your clients ever have enough impact on the market to cause you to adapt your systems?53:07 – Niels: Do you operate your US stocks portfolio the same as on Australian stocks?58:47 – Niels: Are the Australian equity markets liquid?01:00:53 – Niels: Why do you think the recent crash is similar to 1987?01:16:30 – Question 1: Michael; How do you incorporate Risk Management into your system?01:24:19 – Questions 2&3: Michael;...
4/25/2020 • 1 hour, 35 minutes, 37 seconds
BO64: The Most CounterIntuitive Human Behaviour in Investing
SI82: Is Machine Learning and AI just a marketing ploy? ft. Harold de Boer
Special guest, Harold de Boer of Transtrend, joins us on the show today to discuss why the recent returns disparity among CTAs might be good for the industry, the benefits of investing in more than one Trend Following fund, if the term ‘machine learning’ should be considered as a marketing ploy, what makes a strategy robust, why unsupervised ‘black box’ strategies may be riskier than more traditional strategies, how much the markets have changed over time, some thoughts on volatility targeting, and how CTAs can differentiate themselves in the eyes of investors.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:18 – Macro recap from Niels03:14 – Weekly review of performance06:56 – Niels: What do you make of the huge returns dispersion of CTAs during the recent market crash?14:14 – Niels: What causes managers to have similar results?16:42 – Moritz: Is the adoption of Machine Learning & AI more than just a marketing ploy?25:58 – Niels: How CTAs differentiate themselves from each other, in the eyes of investors?28:57 – Niels: Why are investors usually least invested in Trend Following strategies around the time when they need it most?30:00 – Moritz: What is the Transtrend story?33:14 – Moritz: How do you use synthetic markets?35:08 – Niels; Why have you decided to lower the amount of markets you trade?38:36 – Niels; How do you avoid taking on too much counter party risk?45:49 – Moritz: How do you approach market correlations?49:53 – Moritz: As a liquidity provider, what happens when
SI80: Why uncomfortable trades can turn out to be the most profitable ft. Eric Crittenden
This week, special guest Eric Crittenden joins us on the show to discuss: the importance of being able to trade short positions, how the best Trend Following strategies have proven their worth in this current environment, why Trend Following can be regarded as a Contrarian Strategy, whether or not ETFs are safe investments, when being 1st place can be as detrimental as coming last, why the most uncomfortable trades can turn out to be the most profitable, why you can’t time entries into a Trend Following fund, how too much AUM can hinder returns, and why there is so much returns dispersion among CTAs today.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:50 – Macro recap from Niels03:12 – Weekly review of performance06:51 – Niels: How did you get to where you are today?08:00 – Niels: What persuaded you to embrace Trend Following?11:48 – Moritz: Do you believe Trend Following works because it’s difficult to do?17:05 – Niels: What do you think it takes nowadays to be a successful investor?21:38 – Niels: Do you think the speed of the current meltdown is surprising?30:17 – Moritz: Is the Trend Following space overcrowded, and are its results decaying?48:31 – Niels: What do you think of Trend Following on individual stocks?52:42 – Niels: Are concerned about the stability of ETFs?56:09 – Moritz: Do you have any concerns about the money passively allocated to ETFs?58:30 – Moritz: Did you imply Trend Following on individual stocks isn’t worth it, after fees?01:02:51 – Niels: Can you...
3/23/2020 • 1 hour, 35 minutes, 18 seconds
BO40: Does Jerry Parker Trade Synthetic Instruments?
SI79: A historical volatile week put into perspective ft. Robert Carver
We’re joined on the show today by special guest Robert Carver, to discuss another historically volatile week in the markets, the differences between today’s bear market and 2008, how Robert defines portfolio diversification, how many markets a profitable Trend Following system should trade, the different types of strategies that Robert currently uses, the amount of truly uncorrelated assets available, and volatility scaling as a part of risk management. Questions answered this week include: What causes you to modify your system over time, and how do you go about this? What have you learnt from trading through previous crisis periods? What are your thoughts on AI technology?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:09 – Macro recap from Niels04:03 – Weekly review of performance08:09 – Niels: How have you dealt with the recent volatility?19:44 – Niels: What does diversification mean to you?28:35 – Niels: How many markets can be considered too many for a diversified Trend Following system to trade?41:10 – Moritz: What type of different strategies do you currently trade?46:27 – Niels: What has helped you to do well during recently, especially during the recent market turmoil?51:17 – Niels: Why have you chosen to trade different markets differently, rather than treating all markets the same?01:03:18 – Seth; Question 1: How do you incorporate correlations into building a Trend Following...
This week, we discuss how Jerry approached his Tesla trade during last week’s parabolic move up, the value of sleeping well at night in comparison to chasing maximum returns, whether Trend Following models can be successfully tilted toward ESG (Sustainable) Investments, thoughts on Negative & Positive Skew, the perceived drawbacks of CTA diversification when stocks are going up, and we also compare Trend Following on stocks, to a fully diversified, Trend Following system. Questions we answer this week include: What do you do next when you have a significant amount of new AUM? Do you have any tips or methods, whether psychologically or built into your models, for handling euphoric gains? How many markets, and how much allocation to each market, do you recommend when constructing a Trading Universe?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:08 – Macro recap from Niels01:44 – Weekly review of performance04:59 – Top Tweets18:45 – Announcement of special guest Eric Crittenden, from Standpoint Asset Management, joining us on the show in a few weeks26:21 – Jacob; Question 1: When you have a significant amount of new available equity, what do you do next?32:57 – James; Question 2: How do you manage a position that makes a Parabolic move, such as Tesla?41:18 – Matt: Question 3: What methods do you use to handle euphoric gains?01:01:51 – Camron; Question 4: What is the best way to compile a Trading Universe? How many markets, and how much allocation to each market?01:04:42 – Sam; Question 5: Are you aware of any Trend Following Traders who tilt towards ESG...
2/8/2020 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 48 seconds
SI73: How too much experience can work against your investments
On today’s show, we discuss when having lots of experience can sometimes work against you, why hard and fast rules can be better than making discretionary decisions, the importance of trading in appropriate position sizes, the amount of drawdown that will likely cause you to deviate from your system, the unpopularity of Trend Following strategies, creating an adaptive portfolio that can respond to market conditions, and why Trend Following should play a considerable part in your portfolio. Questions we answer this week include: Should you use Trend Filters to confirm your entry signals? Is the 60/40 portfolio usually less volatile than a typical ‘perfect’ Trend Following portfolio? Do you recommend adding mean-reversion strategies to your Trend Following systems? How do you define short, medium and long-term?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:11 – Macro recap from Niels02:41 – Weekly review of performance14:14 – Top Tweets55:44 – Mike; Questions 1: Is Trend Following a Dynamic Call Replication strategy?01:00:39 – Seth; Question 2: Do you use Trend Filters to confirm the entry signal?01:04:10 – Michael; Question 3: Is the daily volatility of a 60/40 portfolio less than that of the ‘perfect’ Trend Following portfolio?01:08:12 – Brian; Listener comment regarding the best way to explain why Trend Following should play a considerable part in all portfolios.01:14:33 – Dave; Question 4: When using multiple lookback periods, should risk per trade always stay the same?01:16:02 – Yohan; Question 5: Do you scale into a trade throughout the day,...
2/3/2020 • 1 hour, 37 minutes, 52 seconds
SI72: Crisis and how CTAs provide protection during stock market declines
SI64: The difference between Warehousing vs Recognising Risk
This week, we discuss the differences between recognising risk and ‘warehousing’ risk, why Fundamental Investors could benefit from implementing Trend Following rules, Diversification as the most important component of risk management, what Traders can learn from Weightlifters, and the delicate balancing act between simple, simplicity, & complexity. Questions we answer this week include: Is Systematic Investing a form of betting? How do you define a Trend? Should you scale into positions?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:11 – Origins of Black Friday02:43 – Weekly review of performance11:45 – Top tweets40:52 – Questions 1/2: Michael; Can the number of trades a system signals, give insight as to how well optimized the system is? Is there a guideline for the number of trades a system should be signalling, for each chosen timeframe (such as Daily/Weekly)?45:34 – Question 3: Richard; Comment- ‘No deterioration in the overall compound growth-rate of long-term Diversified Systematic Funds, post-2000.’46:53 – Questions 4/5: Bing; Why don’t we risk more per trade? Is trader psychology the main reason for the importance placed on position sizing?53:21 – Question 6: Jacob; Can you give examples of strategies that ‘warehouse’ risk?56:41 – Question 7: Nathan; How do we define the parameters of a Trend?01:01:37 – Question 8: Chad; Do you scale into a position, or go straight to the chosen max risk of equity per security?01:05:51 – Questions 9/10: Chris; What should I do with surplus cash once my system reaches...
12/2/2019 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 51 seconds
SI63: Are stock pickers overrated?
Is the concept of being a great stock picker overrated? Are Trend Following returns mean-reverting over time? Will Sharpe Ratios of Trend Following strategies permanently stay lower from now on? Is it becoming harder to be a successful discretionary macro trader? Should you use the same stop-loss for every position? We also give our thoughts on the process of adding a new market to your Trading Universe, ATR and how to apply it to your strategies, when a visit from the SEC can be taken as a compliment, why pain and suffering can sometimes be a necessary component of profitable Trend Following, Louis Bacon deciding to close down his funds, and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:57 – Macro recap from Niels01:55 – Weekly review of performance08:22 – Top tweets46:30 – Questions 1/2: Derek; How do you adapt Trend Following models for a constrained universe of markets? How do you educate fundamental Traders about quant investing?53:31 – Questions 3/4/5: Jonathan; Does having a 5000 sample size backtest apply to each market in each system? Do you use out-of-sample testing? Do you optimize using multiple time-periods?01:00:37 – Questions 6/7: Indrius; How do you use ATR? Do you take less risk per market as you trade more positions?01:04:22 – Question 8/9: Brian; How many other Trend Following managers should you invest in? How would you seek out other managers to invest in?01:12:13 – Question 10: Maurici; Do you use the same stop-loss for every position?01:19:15 – Question 11: Michael; Why incur personnel...
11/24/2019 • 1 hour, 27 minutes, 23 seconds
SI62: The benefits of running a multi-strategy portfolio
SI60: The dangers of "Home" bias and the benefits of Diversification
This week, we cover some of the dangers of ‘Home Bias’, and the benefits of diversification mixed with good risk management. We also discuss the differences between common Trend Trading and Systematic Trend Following, why investors tend to hold on to losing positions longer than winning positions, why people being hopeful with losses and afraid with profits may be the reason for why Trend Following works, DUNN’s Capital’s recent milestone of 45 years in the business, why Trend Following strategies are more than just the ‘perfect hedge’, ways that Trend Following can be applied to life, and we touch Abbey Capital’s recent article regarding Trend Following performance over the current decade, compared to previous decades. Questions answered this week include: Should long and short entries be symmetrical? Should you limit position sizing in particular markets? What do you define as a small loss?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:05 – Macro recap from Niels02:20- Weekly review of performance09:00 – Top tweets35:05 – Questions 1/2: David; Should a bearish strategy mirror a bullish strategy (i.e. 100 day hi/lo entry for both)? Should you expect bearish strategies to do as well as bullish strategies?39:45 – Question 3: Walter; Do you have position size limits on individual contracts?44:15 – Question 4: Neil; What is the definition of a “small loss”?49:50 – Benchmark performance update50:55 – Discussion of Abbey Capital white...
11/3/2019 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 9 seconds
SI59: The dangers of investing in "stories" but why we all do it
SI56: The risk of smooth and steady returns for risk avers investors
This week, we discuss the potential risks of aiming for smooth & steady returns, the pitfalls of having to make predictions, the higher-than-expected appearances of tail events, why it’s dangerous to look at the ‘average performance’ of an industry, and why aiming to trade in a style that suits your personality can actually turn out to be a bad idea. Questions we cover this week include: Have you encountered any CTAs with unusually low-frequency trading strategies? Should the optimization of your strategy come from an ideas-based approach or a data-based approach? How do you feel about the integration of Value Investing into a Trend Following strategy? What does discipline mean to you, and how do you stay disciplined?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:05 - Request for podcast reviews01:30 - Macro recap from Niels04:00 - Weekly review of performance11:10 - Top tweets43:25 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull44:20 - Question 1: Chris; What should an individual pay in fees (data, commissions, etc.)?47:45 - Question 2: Chris; Do you follow front month or highest open interest contracts/continuous contracts or the month you are trading?54:30 - Question 3: Jacob; Have you encountered extremely low frequency CTAs?01:00:20 - Question 4: Jacob; What is your opinion on optimizing using ideas (vs data) first?01:03:50 - Question 5: Jacob; How do you feel about TF meets value investing?01:08:30 - Question 6: Adrian; What does discipline mean to you and how do you stay...
10/7/2019 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 41 seconds
TTU111: Alignment of Interest ft. Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 2of2
SI55: Aligning your investments with the best odds and why the Sharpe needs salt
In this week’s episode, we discuss why Sharpe Ratios should be taken with a pinch of salt, the benefits of using a Trading Coach, why consistently aligning with the best odds may be a better strategy than trying to predict future price moves, DUNN Capital’s recent award from HedgeWeek magazine, why ‘the standout hedge fund traders this year have been computer-driven Trend-Followers’, and why Risk Management is more important than strategy or philosophy. Questions answered this week include: Why are commodities seen as more risky than equities? Can you use Options in a Trend Following strategy? Should you keep your stop-loss proportionately the same across different time-frames? Are there any markets to be avoided by new managers?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.-----Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:05 – Reading of various podcast reviews03:00 – Macro recap from Niels06:20 – Weekly review of performance10:15 – Discussion of Mercer Trend Following paper18:15 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull20:35 – Top tweets36:10 – Questions 1/2/3: Eric; Do you hedge with OTM options? Can you use options to trade trends? Will HFT algos negatively impact TF systems?41:40 – Question 4: Sam; Should stop distance (ATR multiple) adjust with the trend speed?47:50 – Question 5: Noobe; Are there any contracts a new manager should avoid?54:20 – Question 6: Clay; With minimal trading activity, what do TF do all day?01:00:50 – Question 7: Giangitano; Should you have real stop orders in the market (vs stop...
9/29/2019 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 13 seconds
TTU110: The Opportunity of Volatility ft. Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 1of2
SI54: Why NOT losing money is more important than missing opportunities
In this episode, we discuss Howard Mark’s comments regarding not losing money being more important than missing opportunities, how solid Trend Following performance can often stay on the edge of randomness, recent opposing comments from the AHL founders on the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, why complexity and complication might actually be different from one another, and we also touch on a white paper which points out an increased inaccuracy with backtests the more complex a system gets. Questions answered this week include: How easy is Trend Following to carry out? Are funds today charging too much in fees? Is there a way to accurately predict future price moves? Daniel Crosby mentioned in a recent Top Traders Unplugged interview, that ‘the best investments were the ones that were left alone’, what do we think about that statement? How do we keep our cool around friends & family after a very bad week in the markets? Do clients have a wide & varied attitude toward portfolio volatility?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:00 – Weekly recap from Niels04:10 – Weekly review of performance09:00 – Top tweets39:00 – Question 1: Francois; How do you stay cool after a bad week trading?48:30 – Question 2: Adrian; What is the optimal level of trading activity in a robust system?52:20 – Question 3: James; Should CTAs offer the same program with different vol targets?01:02:00 – Question 4: James; Is Jerry trading individual stocks or a basket of stocks?01:05:45 – Benchmark Performance...
9/22/2019 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 7 seconds
RT27: Why Emotion overrides cognition...dramatically ft. Daniel Crosby – 2of2
MacroVoices: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen on Algorithmic Trading & Trend Following
The tables have turned! In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen becomes the first featured guest on Erik Townsend’s newest podcast – MacroVoices Spotlight! In this episode, Niels and Erik discuss Trend Following, the history of the Turtle Traders, Benefits of de-correlation and conditional correlation, how CTAs have been performing, and much more.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
9/13/2019 • 59 minutes, 9 seconds
RT26: Overcoming behavioural biases ft. Daniel Crosby – 1of2
SI52: Working with legendary Paul Tudor Jones ft. Peter Borish
In our special Anniversary Edition of the Systematic Investor Podcast, we invite Peter Borish onto the show to discuss the differences between Discretionary and Systematic Investing, Peter’s journey from the New York Federal Reserve to his role at Quad Group, his experience working with Paul Tudor Jones, his opinion on the CTA industry and its current approach to attracting capital, the benefits of having solid business partners during the best and worst of times, the power of Market Cycles, how perception rather reality can affect a client’s judgement, the effectiveness of Trading coaches, and we also get Peter’s opinions on the current state of the markets. We asked Peter many questions this week, including: Where do you draw the line between normal drawdowns, and feeling compelled to change your models? How do you best explain the benefits of a Rules-Based Trading approach to potential clients? What does Quad Group do, and how difficult is it to find new talent? Can the collapse of Passive Index Funds be the main driver behind the next recession?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:20- Weekly review of performance05:30 – Voicemail from Jim07:20 – Peter Borish journey11:10 – Moritz: What sparked your interest in trading?12:50 – Jerry: What are your opinions on me/CTAs and the evolution/future of the industry?18:00 – Niels: Can you comment on Tony Robbins coaching Paul Tudor Jones?22:20 – Niels: Do systematic traders need coaches?29:40 – Moritz: How do you balance sticking to a system vs changing/evolving?41:25 – Niels: How would you...
9/10/2019 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 43 seconds
SI51: Improving Diversification through multiple trading approaches
This week, we discuss the importance of avoiding any emotional attachments to your positions, how correlated markets can affect your portfolio, how to decide which trades to execute when your signals outweigh the amount of equity available to trade, and we also give our thoughts on Margin-to-Equity related to Position Sizing. Questions answered this week include: does uncertainty in the markets have any negative effects on Trend Following strategies? Can the S&P 500 ever be a good comparison when gauging Trend Following performance? Are there any signals that can reliably measure trend strength? When Trend Following strategies aren’t working, should you apply any other strategies? Does Jerry trade Index Futures or single stocks?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:50 – Request for podcast reviews02:45 – Macro recap from Niels06:45 – Weekly review of performance08:50 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/1909:50 – Top tweets44:30 – Question 1: Sandeep; Please discuss market correlations.49:40 – Questions 2/3: James; When adding new markets to a system, what are you looking for? How do you calculate trend strength?01:00:30 – Question 4: Dante; What strategy should one use in high volatility periods?01:04:30 – Question 5: Ali; How do you pick the markets in your system?01:09:20 – Question 6: Ali; Will Jerry please discuss how he trades single stocks01:13:00 – Question 7: Ali; Can you recommend a broker?01:14:15 – Question 8: Ali; Please discuss margin to equity and position...
8/5/2019 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 15 seconds
BO26: Behavioral Finance, Crisis Alpha & the Adaptive Market Hypothesis
SI45: Ray Dailo's paradigm shift and Gold as a safe-haven
In this week’s episode, we discuss Ray Dalio’s recent article on Paradigm Shifts and his comments on the safety of Gold. We also touch on the perils of having too many filters that keep you from entering a trade, why you should avoid ‘sure thing’ trade recommendations from others, the importance of having a plan before entering a trade, the benefits of incorporating what you’ve learnt from others about Trading into your own strategies, and the reasons for buying at the 52-week high as opposed to the 52-week low. Questions this week include: is it better to have multiple exit strategies on a trade or just one single criteria? Should long positions have the same Trading rules as short positions? Is there such a thing as having a ‘healthy fear’ in the markets?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:30 – Macro recap from Niels03:30 – Weekly review of performance06:30 – Discussion of Ray Dalio article10:00 – Jerry’s highlights for the week12:15 – Discussion of paper on TF speeds27:00 – Top tweets58:30 – Questions 1/2: Harsh; Can you have different exits for longs and shorts? Can stop distance adjust dynamically based on profit?01:06:00 – Question 3: Sebastian; Can you trade without...
7/21/2019 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 45 seconds
BO24: The Importance of Asset Allocation & Patience
SI43: Cliff Asness on the difficulty on sticking to a strategy through volatile periods
In this episode, we discuss the recent article from AQR Capital’s Cliff Asness on the difficulty of sticking to a strategy through volatile periods, why we may never know if a particular system is broken, the differences between different Trading timeframes, and we give an update on the upcoming live event in New York in October. We also answer some questions such as: Is there a ‘Holy Grail’ of Stop Losses? What is a good way to backtest a Trading system? Is there a point where too much Diversification begins to negatively affect the return profile in a portfolio? What are the possible causes that would move a person to Trade a longer timeframe?-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro/Macro recap from Niels02:45 – Weekly review of performance11:30 – Top tweets20:30 – Question 1: James; Where can one find more information on stop losses/risk mgmt?28:00 – Question 2: Brian; What software do you recommend for backtesting?31:50 – Question 3: Paul; Discussion of the multiple facets of diversification38:00 – Question 4: James; Can there be too much diversification?51:15 – Question 5: Sam; What made Jerry decide to shift to longer-term trading?55:20 – Benchmark performance update56:30 – Live event updateOther resources discussed:AQR Paper Reference: Quant CassandraArticle Reference: Wes Gray- <a href="https://alphaarchitect.com/2019/02/20/trend-following-a-decade-of-underperformance/" rel="noopener...
7/8/2019 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 10 seconds
SI42: Are Stanley Druckenmiller and David Harding right about Trend Following? ft. Salem Abraham
SI40: Is past performance actually indicative of future returns? ft. Corey Hoffstein
This week, we’re joined by Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, who also hosts the Flirting With Models podcast. We discuss his journey into Systematic Investing, why the year you enter the markets will likely impact how you invest in the future, and why random returns can actually be worse for your system than bad returns. Corey explains the term ‘Sequence Risk’, why investors should avoid being too short-term, why risk can only be transformed and not destroyed, and if past performance is actually indicative of future returns. We also get Corey’s views on simplicity versus complexity, how he approaches diversification, and how he invests personally.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro including discussion of weekly events and the latest news from the FED05:35 – Weekly review of performance08:50 - Corey's journey22:00 – Corey breaks down the 3 components of diversification: What, How and When35:10 – Question: How do you know when your model is broken?42:15 – Question: Do you think TF will continue to work?52:00 – Question: What is sequence risk? & Why we should pay attention to it!56:50 – Question: What do you mean by risk cannot be destroyed it can only be transformed?01:01:20 – Question: How do you convince investors to include TF in their portfolio?01:06:45 – Question: Please discuss simplicity, complexity, model robustness, etc.01:17:40 – Question: How do you prioritize drawdown management above all else?01:21:20 – Question: Why is it easier to predict markets & performance 10
6/16/2019 • 1 hour, 40 minutes, 10 seconds
BO22: You don’t need to be a Genius if you can Stick to a Plan
SI39: How to trade the VIX and do Trend Followers have an edge?
Can the VIX index be traded as part of a successful Trend Following strategy? Do CTAs have the edge over traditional Hedge Funds by being invested in the less popular markets? Should some parameters be adjusted according to the market being traded, and can you expect returns from Long Positions & Short Positions to be equal? We also give our thoughts on MorningStar’s recent ‘Bubble Index’ experiment, as well as Real Vision’s recent interview on the subject of ‘selling volatility’.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:55 – Weekly review of performance11:50 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/1913:00 – Top tweets45:00 – Discussion of Goldman Sachs paper on TF52:20 – Discussion of Morningstar “bubble” portfolio article56:10 – Discussion of Real Vision video on volatility 57:00 – Discussion of FT article on South Korea 01:00:00 – Question 1: Ryan; Can the VIX be traded as part of a TF...
RT25: Alpha decay in Short-Term strategies ft. John Fidler, Jonathan Miles & Christopher Vogt – 2of2
On today’s episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri continues his conversation with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathan Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. Listen in as our guests talk about management fees and how they have changed over the past decade, the importance of constantly checking your assumptions, and what wisdom they would give to young up and coming investors.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why John and Jonathan don’t spend much time looking at short-term CTAsHow fee compression has changed management fees over the last decadeWhen our guests choose discretionary over systematic managersThe role of alternatives in a portfolio, and why Christopher doesn’t call them alternativesWhy Christopher urges people interested in the investment space to be cynicalWhy in a world of complex models, John sees simplicity as a good thingThe most important decisions in Jonathan’s work, and why they aren’t necessarily financial decisionsWhy many people’s view of model risk can hurt them and their investmentsWhy macro strategies will always remain strong-----Links Mentioned:The Impact of Crowding in Alternative Risk Premia InvestingHedge Funds Are Not an Asset Class: Implications for Institutional PortfoliosFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
RT24: The Value of Liquidity ft. John Fidler, Christopher Vogt & Jonathan Miles – 1of2
On today’s episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri speaks with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathon Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. With these experts on managed futures, we will discuss how managed futures is being incorporated into institutional portfolios, illiquid versus liquid investments, and what role alternative investments play in today’s investment landscape.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What managed future strategies John sees the more successful managers gravitating towardsWhy diversification isn’t always the best idea, and what alternative strategies Jonathan recommendsThe advantages and disadvantages of having illiquid versus liquid investmentsThe heuristic crutch of private equityWhy Christopher is wary to always choose emerging managers over more established onesThe importance of a strong operational due diligence in managing portfoliosHow trend following will need to evolve amid machine learning and changing marketsHow Jonathan’s risk premia strategies transformed how his firm looked at managed futures-----Links Mentioned:The Impact of Crowding in Alternative Risk Premia InvestingHedge Funds Are Not an Asset Class: Implications for Institutional PortfoliosFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so
4/24/2019 • 31 minutes, 1 second
SI32: How accurately can we predict future returns? and can trading with systems keep you happy?
SI30: Should you adjust your position size based on recent volatility?
Is it wise to adjust position-size according to recent volatility? Can back-testing a Trend Following strategy end up as just being a form of curve-fitting? We discuss the merits of Long-Term evidence over Recency Bias, the importance of Sharpe Ratios, the significance of price gaps, and whether leverage is a necessity for all CTAs. You will hear our thoughts on the idea of risking 1% per trade and how diversification affects this, the pros and cons of a crowded Trend Following market, and we touch on the topic of whether or not a trade can be held for too long.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:45 – Review of last week’s episode with Jesse Felder06:45 – Weekly review of performance11:00 – Top tweets32:20 – Question 1: John; Are you always fully invested?41:00 – Question 2: John; Across all trades, how much total risk is there in a TF system?46:30 – Questions 3/4/5/6: Woody; What are the pros and cons of using managed futures in ETFs vs mutual funds vs other vehicles? Will liquid alts suffer from a big bank crisis? Do you need leverage and concentrated positions to get the benefits of managed futures? Is there a disadvantage of using ‘blue chip’ managed futures mutual funds?01:07:30 – Question 7: Brian; Why do investors use Sharpe ratios?01:15:50 – Question 8: Sam; What are your thoughts on price gaps?01:19:30 – Questions 9/10: Andrew; Do you use Trend Following signals to manage your cash positions? How does DUNN use swaps in relation to fees?01:26:50 – Question 11: Sam; Is there a time period that is too long-term for a...
SI29: Can Value Investing be applied to Gold? and Trend Following as a forecasting tool ft. Jesse Felder
In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast. Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about Passive Investing, his go-to timing tools, and if Value Investing can be applied to non-equity markets such as Gold. We also ask Jesse: does he use the VIX index for hedging? What is a normal day is like for him? Jesse tells us why he considers Trend Following a good forecasting tool, gives us his thoughts on predicting versus reacting to price moves, and also lets us know what he’s currently reading.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:50 – Weekly review of performance05:20 – Jesse reviews his background/influences08:00 – Jesse describes his process12:45 – Question from Francois: Would Jesse discuss his view we’re in/entering a bear market?19:30 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on passive indexing25:40 – Niels asks how float reduction impacts passive investing28:00 – Jerry asks if ZIRP impacts valuation-based investing30:10 – Niels asks Jesse how a transition to an inflationary environment will impact investing34:40 – Moritz asks if/how Jesse applies the value approach to all asset classes36:50 – Moritz asks if Jesse trades the VIX or otherwise hedges tailsBook reference: The Tao of Capital by Spitznagel40:10 – Jerry asks Jesse’s thoughts on TF as a tool...
3/30/2019 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 23 seconds
RT23: Populism and Market Risks ft. Chris Cole, Matthew Sargaison & Dan Stone – 2of2
Today guest host Chris Solarz continues his conversation with Chris Cole, the Founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. Our guests today go over the changing markets and why despite trend following’s recent underperformance, their clients still look to it as protection for their portfolio. They will also continue their discussion on the intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easing, as well as the relationship between corporate debt and GDP and its long term trends.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the recent quantitative easing could be moving into quantitative tightening, and what that means for investorsThe intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easingHow opportunities in the markets are changing managers behaviorWhy Matthew is happy with the current market environmentWhich asset classes currently offer a cheap volatilityWhat the recent huge spikes in VIX meant for long vol and short vol tradersWho in the investing space is looking for the protection of hedging for their portfolioWhy trend following is still successful despite it’s recent difficulties in the marketThe meaning of the recent change of Growth outperforming Value-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital ManagementLearn more about <a...
3/27/2019 • 29 minutes, 26 seconds
SI28: Investing based on the "Evidence" and what are the Trend Commandments?
RT22: Volatility Master Class ft. Chris Cole, Matthew Sargaison & Dan Stone – 1of2
On today’s episode guest host Chris Solarz speaks with Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. With these three world class volatility experts on the show, we’ll be going deep into the current state of volatility, the ramifications of United States quantitative easing, as well as the economic effects on the market of various social movements around the world.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How our guests got interested in the financial industry and data analyticsThe state of the market now and where it is headed in the futureWhy Dan sees the Quantitative Easing and its effect on market changes hurting long-term volatilityThe hidden risks to the markets from the rise of populismDan’s “top five longball macro themes” and what we can learn from themWhere Matthew sees opportunities in volatility todayWhat it has been like as a long-vol trader for the last ten years, when you are up against the World’s Central BanksWhy you don’t have to put your “end-of-the-world” hat on…just yet-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital ManagementLearn more about Matthew Sargaison and Man...
3/20/2019 • 30 minutes, 40 seconds
SI27: Volatility vs Risk...What's the difference? and are CTAs useless?
SI26: Is it more profitable to invest longer-term? and Druckenmiller on being greedy
Is it more profitable to be longer-term? When is Trend Following the wrong strategy to use? Should you ‘ease’ into a trade, or go all in, and how should you adjust position size? Other talking points include where to trade Single Stock Futures, how to include Options into a Trend Following strategy, as well as recent quotes from Stanley Druckenmiller about being greedy in the markets, and the quotes from Howard Marks on the psychology of the markets.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:35 – Weekly review of performance06:15 – Top tweets29:35 – Question 1: Antonio; How do you determine if your Trend Following model is broken?45:00 – Question 2: Seth; How does Jerry diversify his single stock portfolio?47:20 – Question 3: Dave; Could you discuss specific details of your systems?48:15 – Question 4/5/6: Carlos; How does Jerry trade single stock futures given liquidity? What is your opinion on using alternative data for position sizing/signal generation? What is your opinion on adjusting position sizes using momentum/pyramiding/etc.?58:20 – Question 7: Walter; What exchange does Jerry use to trade single stock futures/where is the liquidity?01:03:30 – Question 8: Brian; Do you use options strategies? If so would you discuss your strategies?01:09:50 – Question 9: Glen; Please discuss your execution process once a system provides a signal.01:15:00 – Question 10/11: Keith; If establishing a new system, do you put on all positions as of a specific date or sit in cash waiting for new entry signals? How do you adjust positions when...
Discussion points this week include: Where to start if you want to become a Trend Following Trader, whether or not to trade markets differently, Bloomberg’s article on the supposed Failing of Trend Following, how strategies can cope and adapt during drawdowns, how to know when you are truly diversified or not, and a lot more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:20 – Weekly review of performance07:00 – Top tweets32:30 – Question 1: Karl; Where would you start if you wanted to become a Trend Follower?36:30 – Question 2/3: Paul; Considering return volatility and investor tolerance, how do you help investors determine their optimal allocation to Trend Following? Have your personal volatility preferences changed over time?45:45 – Question 4: Antonio; If historical drawdowns have no bearing on the future (as the podcast has said), how do you know your system won’t blow up?50:10 – Question 5: Antonio; How do you calculate future expected returns with a TF system?55:20 – Question 6: Antonio; If you can’t estimate future returns, why bet TF will keep working in the future?59:30 – Question 7: Antonio; Should recent performance of TF systems influence future return expectations?01:03:10 – Question 8: Brian; How does a CTA choose a company to sell their products?01:05:00 – Question 9/10: Samuel; Based on correlation, what level of diversification is enough? What will cause Jerry to adjust his risk?01:09:00 – Question 11: Samuel; How often should positions be adjusted based on account...
3/3/2019 • 1 hour, 37 minutes, 57 seconds
RT21: What's next for Hedge Funds? ft. Jake Barton, Trent Webster & Steven Wilson – 2of2
Today Niels continues his conversation with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas. Listen in to learn when our guests use investment theory versus data, new standards for management fees, and what our guests look for in maintaining a reliable team for their investors.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:When to use investment theory versus data, and how you know when you have chosen correctlyHow the guests review their managers and analyze their resultsWhat organizations of different sizes can do to prepare for a crisisHow Steven sees the new fee structure for hedge funds, that TRS helped develop, as more reasonable than the standard 2&20How a race to the bottom for management fees can remove much of the creative energy from the alternative manager spaceWhat excites Trent about the BBB section of the investment grade bond marketWhat is new and upcoming in the hedge fund spaceThe reading that our guests never miss inside and outside of the investment space-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus HoldingsLearn more about Trent Webster and <a href="https://www.sbafla.com/fsb/" rel="noopener...
3/1/2019 • 44 minutes
SI24: Why Trend Following has "failed" to attract a lot of Assets ft. Meb Faber
Meb Faber joins the show to discuss his journey into Trend Following, where Trend Following funds have gone wrong in terms of attracting assets & growing AUM, why he started his company Cambria Investments and the difficulties that this involved, the perceived safety of US Treasuries, Mutual Funds vs ETFs, and a lot more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:30 – Weekly review of performance06:25 – Meb's backstory10:15 – Jerry question: Why don’t CTAs have more AUM?16:50 – Moritz question: When and why did you start your firm?21:00 – Moritz question: Why do you think TF and value is a great blend?28:00 – Niels question: Please talk about the perceived safety of US Treasuries (based on your research) and why you use a broader portfolio.36:20 – Niels question: What needs to happen before Betterment (and others) embrace TF?40:15 – Moritz question: Why did you set up an ETF vs a mutual fund or another vehicle?50:00 – Jerry question: What needs to happen for mutual funds to be competitive with ETFs (tax wise)?53:00 – Niels question: With ETFs do you have to disclose your trading methodology?57:00 – Jerry question: What do you think of products designed for client desires/tolerances compared to optimally designed pure TF products?01:02:30 – Jerry question: What is your opinion on active mgt = discretionary & index = systematic?01:12:30 – Niels questions: What are your favorite factors? How is your competition going with Patrick...
2/24/2019 • 1 hour, 33 minutes, 38 seconds
RT20: The Looming Pension Crisis ft. Jake Barton, Trent Webster & Steven Wilson – 1of2
On today’s episode Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas. As managers of the investment of pensions and alternative portfolios, our guests today get in depth on how they use trend following to improve their client’s capital, from interpersonal strategies in choosing a portfolio, how the funding status of a pension can affect a board’s strategy, and what guides them in making the choices they do for their holdings.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the guests got their start in investingTrent’s philosophy for choosing his investmentsWhat Jake looks for when working with managersThe core beliefs and principles that drive each of the guest’s decisionsHow the funding level of the pension fund can change investment decisionsThe varying degrees of differentiation and how it changes with the marketsWhy our guests are firmly committed to trend following even after a few years of lower returnsWhy convincing boards to invest in a hedge fund can be so difficult-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus HoldingsLearn more about Trent Webster and <a...
2/20/2019 • 49 minutes, 42 seconds
SI23: What is the value of the 200-Day Moving Average?
What is the value of the 200-day Moving Average, the benefit of tried and tested strategies vs new and trendy strategies? Are drawdowns a necessary component of a robust strategy, and what is the optimum startup capital? These, and a lot more we discuss this week.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:45 – Announcement: Meb Faber will be on the show next week please send questions01:50 – Weekly review of performance06:40 – Top tweets19:00 – Question 1: Alfred; What are some filters to increase the accuracy of breakouts?25:25 – Question 2/3: Walter; Do you use volume as a signal in your systems? I’ve heard you mention more volatile systems are more robust, please explain why.41:00 – Question 4: Paul; Please discuss big data, market predictions, and the relationship to TF.47:40 – Question 5: Robert; Are Chesapeake’s single stock positions being traded via futures or cash equities?50:00 – Question 6/7/8: Chris; Why don’t more TF use single stocks? Do you put on positions the day of the signal or wait until end of week (or similar)? How do you think about stop losses in a portfolio?01:02:20 – Question 9: Matt; What needs to happen for investors to embrace TF like you all have?01:09:30 – Question 10/11: Peter-Francois; How do you handle existing positions and inflows/outflows of capital? Do you adjust stop loss levels when new investors come in to existing positions?01:14:30 – Question 12: Francois; What is your take on factor investing such as value and momentum?...
RT18: Are markets really Efficient? ft. Andrew Lo & Sol Waksman – 1of2
On today’s episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Andrew Lo, the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Sol Waksman, the Founder and President of BarclayHedge, Ltd. Our guests today have many years of experience in the world of investing and have watched the finance industry as it has gone through its many changes. Listen in to learn the historical importance of separating the alpha from the beta, the increase of the volatility of volatility since 2007, and common misconceptions about diversification in a portfolio.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How our guests got their starts in financeWhy Andrew thinks that sometimes things need to be believed to be seenWhy separating the alpha from the beta has been revolutionary for the entire financial industryHow the narrative of finance and investing has changed over time in the futures industryThe increase in the volatility of volatility over the last decade and what that means for managed futuresHow the abundance of passive investing tools has changed the investor’s experience during market changesWhat investors are looking for in their tools and strategiesWhat alternative strategies are investors looking at nowThe experiment Andrew does with his audiences he speaks to on their investment preferencesWhat investors need to understand about diversification and risk-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Andrew Lo and MIT Sloan School of ManagementLearn more about Sol Waksman and
1/16/2019 • 40 minutes, 52 seconds
SI18: How to know if you are over-fitting your model parameters
SI15: Has too much Diversification hurt performance in recent years?
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:50 – Weekly review of performance05:50 – Top tweets19:30 – Question 1: Michael; Are trend followers relaxed (in terms of personality) in general?23:00 – Question 2: Michael; Why does TF not work on stocks work?28:30 – Question 3: Michael; How do you measure single stock correlation?33:05 – Question 4: Nick; Do you ever front run your systems?35:00 – Question 5: David; Have you ever been through a market similar to this year (2018) and how did it turn out/what did you learn?38:45 – Question 6: Can you give us a proven TF strategy (ex. Donchian)?43:05 – Question 7/8: Timothy; Has too much diversification hurt TF in the last decade? Should TF focus on markets that are trending?52:10 – Question 9: Anish; How do you identify relative strength and accordingly allocate capital between different asset classes?59:55 – Question 10: Does the intensity of trends change over time?01:04:30 – Question 11/12: Have the markets changed during your time as a...
RT17: What makes Bitcoin "anti-fragile"? ft. James Koutolas, Tim McCourt & Roy Niederhoffer – 2of2
Today guest host Chris Solarz continues his conversation with Tim McCourt, the Global Head of Equity Index and Alternative Investment Products at CME Group, James Koutolas, CEO of Typhon Capital Management, and Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management. Listen in to learn more about the future of cryptocurrency technologies, the unprecedented strength of the blockchain in Bitcoin, and how the SEC and world economies are looking into cryptocurrencies.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How pick-and-shovel plays are faring in the crypto marketWhy Roy is hesitant to make any judgments about the future of cryptocurrency technologiesWhat people are calling the “inconsistent trinity of crypto”The future of scalability in cryptoWhy the cost of trading crypto is not an issue to worry aboutWhat makes the blockchain one of the most secure things ever createdWhat makes Bitcoin “anti-fragile”Where the SEC stands now on regulation of BitcoinWhy James worries about ICO’s and the security behind themWhat makes Bitcoin such a unique trading commodityWhy James sees new all-time highs in Bitcoin in 2019-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about James Koutolas and Typhon Capital ManagementLearn more about Tim McCourt and CME GroupLearn more about <a href="https://twitter.com/niederhoffer"...
12/5/2018 • 35 minutes, 36 seconds
SI12: What causes drawdowns and how to deal with them
RT16: The birth of the first Futures on Crypto ft. James Koutolas, Tim McCourt & Roy Niederhoffer – 1of2
On today’s episode, guest host Chris Solarz speaks with Tim McCourt, the Global Head of Equity Index and Alternative Investment Products at CME Group, James Koutolas, CEO of Typhon Capital Management, and Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management. Our guests today are at the forefront of cryptocurrency investment and their views give insight on where it is headed, from public acceptance to their integration in managed futures. Listen in to today’s episode to learn what makes cryptocurrency unique in human history, the long-term effects of investment, and the new developments that change how we invest them.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What makes Bitcoin so unique among the history of currenciesThe differences between Ethereum and BitcoinWhat challenges CME faced in creating a futures on something virtualHow interest in cryptocurrency has changed over the last couple of yearsWhy the guests disagree about the public long-term interest in cryptocurrencyThe historical precedent for the benefits of futures in the economyHow the various kinds of traders make their financial system work so wellThe trading strategies around cryptocurrency and how it has evolved-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about James Koutolas and Typhon Capital ManagementLearn more about Tim McCourt and CME GroupLearn more...
11/29/2018 • 35 minutes, 7 seconds
SI11: Why hire a manager when you can DIY your Trend Following?
TTU108: Big Opportunities in Exotic Markets? ft. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital – 1of2
Today I’m joined by my co-host Moritz Seibert to speak with Doug Greenig, the Founder, CEO, and CIO at Florin Court Capital. Doug’s early experiences in economics at Princeton and UC Berkeley helped kick off his career in finance, and his work at BARRA in Berkeley started his eventual dive into the CTA space. Trading in exotic markets has helped Doug and his firm capitalize on unique opportunities and fully utilize the systematic trading model. Listen in to today’s episode to learn how Doug got started in systematic trading and exotic markets, how he built his team at Florin Court, and how he has utilized exotic markets to their fullest potential.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Doug got started in financeWhy Doug got into the CTA spaceHow systematic trading intrigued Doug more than discretionary tradingThe inspiration behind the name Florin Court CapitalWho influenced Doug in his financial careerWhat Doug learned from working with Fischer Black (co-inventor of the Black-Scholes model)How Doug found such an experienced team in the early days of Florin Court CapitalThe exotic markets that Doug is tradingWhat makes these exotic markets easier, or better to tradeWhere to find the right balance of exotic versus traditional marketsWhat gives an asset more or less momentum, and why crypto is so special in this regardHow Doug selects his markets, and his long-term strategy for maintaining that collectionWhy Florin Court Capital has stayed out of trading spot cryptoHow to adapt the different markets to the standard models-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Doug Greenig on <a href="https://uk.linkedin.com/in/douglas-greenig-21313911" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
11/15/2018 • 39 minutes, 36 seconds
SI09: What really makes a Trend Follower a Trend Follower?
RT15: Avoiding unrealistic expectations in Crypto ft. Jennifer Sunu, Arthur Bell & JP Bruynes – 2of2
Today Niels continues his conversation with Jennifer Sunu, who is the director of compliance at the NFA, Arthur Bell, CPA and managing member of Bell Tower LLC, and JP Bruynes, who is a partner at the law firm Akin Gump.Listen in to today’s episode as we focus on how regulators are helping and sometimes hurting managers and clients, the importance of cyber security as a CTA, the way that cryptocurrencies have changed the way we trade, some of the best things that have happened to managed futures over the last twenty years, and how the market has been affected.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The dangers of over-regulationWhat we can learn from blow-ups at the manager level and how to avoid them in the futureWhy investors need to do their due diligence to avoid fraudWhat the NFA considers in reviewing educational and promotional materialsHow to ensure your promotional material is meeting NFA guidelinesWhy pundits on news shows are allowed to make predictions on markets that may be just an educated guessThe importance of cyber security and how to you can protect yourselfWhat impact cryptocurrencies may have on futures marketsHow regulators are working to help clients avoid unrealistic expectations in cryptocurrenciesThe best things that have happened to managed futures in the last twenty yearsWhat has changed regarding the Volcker rule in the past few yearsHow flat fee products are changing the industryWhy we need to worry about the “race to zero”Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Jennifer Sunu and the National Futures...
8/23/2018 • 46 minutes, 13 seconds
RT14: What it takes to set up a CTA business ft. Jennifer Sunu, Arthur Bell & JP Bruynes – 1of2
On today’s episode Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Jennifer Sunu, who is the director of compliance at the NFA, Arthur Bell, CPA and managing member of Bell Tower LLC, and JP Bruynes, who is a partner at the law firm Akin Gump.Listen in to today’s episode as we focus on how the managed futures industry is organized, how it has changed since the industry started, who the key players are and what role do they play, and how regulators keep an eye on all these players to ensure they play fairly.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What got our guests into managed futuresThe basic structure of the managed futures industryWhat role each of the key players have in managed futuresHow the different regulatory bodies work together in the USThe different ways that hedge fund management has changed over the last twenty yearsHow the industry has evolved over the last forty yearsWhy our guests believe that investing in managed futures is a good ideaWhat it takes to set up a CTA todayThe importance of understanding your edge as a CTAWhat first steps a new CTA is going to take in working with regulatorsWhat Jennifer recommends for younger CTA’The questions new investors should be asking to find the best CTA for them-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Jennifer Sunu and the National Futures AssociationLearn more about Arthur Bell and Bell Tower LLCLearn more about JP Bruynes and <a href="https://www.akingump.com/en/index.html"...
8/16/2018 • 43 minutes, 57 seconds
TTU105: The Many Flavors of Trend Following ft. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen of DUNN Capital (Europe)
We’re changing things up on today’s episode of the podcast: we have with us Frank Conway from the Economic Rockstar Podcast interviewing Niels about trend following strategies, asset allocation, and more. Listen in to find out what changes need to be made in the trend following space, the importance and benefits of your asset allocation when it comes to your investments, and new publications that can take you farther in mastering trend following and managed futures.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Niels has worked hard to keep his explanation of trend following as simple as possibleWhy at the end of the day, all investors are trend followersWhat really sets one trend follower apart from anotherHow trend following techniques have evolved over timeWhat traits Niels sees in the company he works with as most important in their 40+ year successThe challenges and difficulties of trend followingWhy trying to do it yourself in trend following can hurt rather than helpWhy successfully executing a trend following strategy is not something that Niels believes everybody can or should doWhy despite their successes, many trend followers feel an embarrassment in showing their track recordsHow the right asset allocation can build safer and better performing portfoliosWhy it’s important to have “skin in the game” as an investment managerThe importance of COI versus ROIWhat Niels thinks of cryptocurrencies and how it relates to trend followingWhy DUNN Capital trades the VIX and its importance in their portfolioWhat inspired Niels to write his recent books on trend following and managed futuresThe purpose behind Niels outreach, whether it’s podcasts, books, newsletters, or anything elseWhat Niels hopes people will get out of his books-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
7/9/2018 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 6 seconds
TTU104: The Passive & The Active Investor ft. Harold de Boer of Transtrend – 2of2
TTU101: Should You Trust The Short-Term Over The Long-Term? ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 1of2
Nigol Koulajian is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Quest Partners LLC, and has been designing and trading short-term and long-term technical systems for over 22 years. Coming from Columbia business school, many of Nigol’s general practices seem counter-intuitive but have consistently yielded results. This interview will help get you deeper into the trading and management philosophy that has made Quest Partners such a successful firm.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Nigol got started with trading systemsHow Quest Partners grew to where it is todayWhat Nigol has learned from his unique path into managed futuresWhy clearly defining your process is value added to your productWhy Nigol is okay with always being in a state of failureHow developing nuance in his intuitive process has become Nigol’s greatest assetWhat role meditation has played in Nigol’s careerWhat factors played into Quest’s successWhy Quest takes tail risk into account while normalizing returnsWhy Nigol puts more trust in short-term over the long-termSome of Nigol’s short-term trading strategiesWhat Nigol is studying right nowHow writing white papers has helped Nigol’s relationships with his clientsWhy focusing on your investors can be hurting your long-term growthHow Quest Partners has changed to fit the post-2010 financial climateThe problem with smart beta-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on TwitterFollow Nigol on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nigol-koulajian-a558412a/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
5/18/2018 • 37 minutes, 22 seconds
TTU100: Being Transparent With Your Clients ft. Robert Sinnott of AlphaSimplex – 2of2
In our continued conversation with Robert Sinnott, Katy Kaminski and I dive into why AlphaSimplex has been so successful, why Robert values transparency in his firm so highly, and what he advises for new and rising-star investors. He goes deep into what he is excited about and afraid of with managed futures, and what he’s looking forward to accomplishing with AlphaSimplex in the future.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why AlphaSimplex maintains a pure trend programWhat problems in the trend following space Robert hopes to solveThe challenges that AlphaSimplex deals with on a regular basisWhat factors have given AlphaSimplex its successWhy Robert holds transparency in such high regardHow the models Robert uses employ smart long-term and short-term assessment and whyWhen your size as a firm hurts your performanceWhat about managed futures makes Robert the most excitedThe things about managed futures that keep Robert up at nightWhy the models you are reading about are wrongRobert’s advice for young and rising star investorsWhy Robert believes the right question can often more important than the answer-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about Joe Blitzstein’s “Introduction to Probability”Find out more about my co-host Katy Kaminski’s “Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha” Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on <a...
4/19/2018 • 38 minutes, 30 seconds
TTU99: The Good and Bad of Machine Learning ft. Robert Sinnott of AlphaSimplex – 1of2
From the very beginning, Robert Sinnott has studied the movement of the markets and how to anticipate their changes. Robert earned both an A.B. and an A.M. in Statistics from Harvard University, where he focused on statistical machine learning, capital markets, and time series analysis.In our conversation, my co-host Katy Kaminski and I talk with Robert about how he has used these skills to redesign AlphaSimplex’s performance analytics infrastructure and develop smarter machine learning processes, and how Robert employs this data with such success.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The history behind AlphaSimplex and how it beganHow Robert got involved with AlphaSimplexHow the surrounding technology industry affects Robert’s workWhat lessons Robert has learned from his time at AlphaSimplexHow Robert spends his time outside of his workHow adaptive markets shape the way Robert worksWhy Robert utilizes machine learning and how it benefits AlphaSimplexThe dangers of relying too much on machine learningWhat makes AlphaSimplex’s machine learning so easy to understand----- Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about Joe Blitzstein’s “Introduction to Probability”Find out more about my co-host Katy Kaminski’s “Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha” Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on <a...
4/14/2018 • 35 minutes, 19 seconds
TTU98: Adapting to the Ever Changing Markets ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital – 2of2
RT13: The legacy of AHL ft. Adam, Harding & Lueck of AHL – 3of3
On this special episode, my guests are the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about how they developed their investing strategies, some of the most surprising decisions they ever made, and what kind of legacy they would like to leave behind.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What Mike, David & Marty had to un-learn in order to improve their strategiesWhy David believes education can crush creativityHow some “new” optimization methods hurts investorsWhat David and Marty least like about their current strategiesWhat they plan on doing when they no longer run their firmsHow David approaches succession planningThe most important investment principles the guests would leave for their childrenWhy only a small amount of investors still keep managed futures as a core allocationThe most important decisions they ever madeWhich decisions had the most surprising resultsIf the media will ever understand what managed futures actually areThe legacy that AHL left in the world of investingFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The MelomaniacsLearn more about David Harding and Winton GroupLearn more about Marty Lueck and <a href="https://www.aspectcapital.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
9/1/2017 • 33 minutes
RT12: You don't have to be good...but you have to be useful ft. Adam, Harding & Lueck of AHL – 2of3
On this special episode, I continue my conversation with the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about what AHL’s founders did after they created the company, what they’ve learned along the way about business and life, and how they view the current market climates.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The future of a science-driven trading approachWhat David’s vision was when he started Winton CapitalThe beginnings of Aspect CapitalWhy Winton moved away from traditional trend followingThe challenges that equities and managed futures present for investorsWhy David chose to lower volatility of his strategyMichael’s experience with deep value investingWhen it’s time to ask “do you want to be happy or rich?”What caused Michael to leave the industryHow they have evolve using different data sources and new marketsThe danger of “hindsight bias”What disadvantages machine learning have presentedWhy Marty views asset allocation as part of a trend following modelHow they see our current financial climate-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The MelomaniacsLearn more about David Harding and Winton GroupLearn more about Marty Lueck and <a...
8/25/2017 • 42 minutes, 34 seconds
RT11: AHL 30 Year Anniversary ft. Michael Adam, David Harding & Marty Lueck – 1of3
I was thrilled to be joined by the founders of AHL, to celebrate their 30 year anniversay of founding AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about AHL’s beginnings, the revolutionary discoveries that AHL made, how MAN Group became the owner of AHL, as well as all the great things that Michael, David and Marty went on to create.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How AHL got it’s startWhy Michael’s father was instrumental in the beginning of AHLWhat struck David when testing their early algorithmsWhy their “empiricist” outlook gave them an early advantageHow technology’s limits pushed their ideasThe breakthroughs of AHL’s early research and how it still applies todayWhy being a consultant gave AHL deep insight into trading the marketsThe crucial role the early clients had in AHL’s developmentThe power of finding the right people to work withWhy Michael preferred working with “unformed” employeesHow the original deal between MAN and MINT influenced AHLWhat the larger financial community initially thought about AHLHow AHL brought in investors in those early days-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The MelomaniacsLearn more about David Harding and Winton GroupLearn more...
8/18/2017 • 44 minutes, 25 seconds
RT10: The challenge pension funds face with Risk Mitigation ft. Ryan Abrams, Ela Karahasanoglu & Carrie Lo – 2of2
RT02: The biggest challenge for institutions ft. Amy Elefante Bedi, Ernest Jaffarian & Phil Hatzopoulos – 2of2
Today I continue my conversation with Amy Elefante Bedi, Director of Hedged Strategies at Washington University Investment Management Company in St. Louis, Ernest Jaffarian, the CEO of Efficient Capital Management as well Phil Hatzopoulos , who is the Global Head of Buyside Sales at the CME Group.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What the response has been to lower performance of hedge funds in recent yearsHow managers have dealt with the challenging performance environmentWhat institutional investors are looking to get out of the Managed Futures spaceHow Smart Beta is being usedIf its true that you get what you pay forThe movement towards BIG dataThe concern of investors about the fixed income sectorWhat would happen if interest rates starts going upWhat the biggest opportunities are for the Managed Futures industry in 2017How regulations could destroy the industryThe biggest challenge that institutions face before they embrace CTAsHow to overcome the fear of investing in the Managed Futures space-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Amy Elefante Bedi and Washington University’s Investment Management CompanyLearn more about Ernest Jaffarian and Efficient Capital ManagementLearn more about Phillip Hatzopoulos and CME...
1/16/2017 • 24 minutes, 42 seconds
RT01: How to find talented managers ft. Amy Elefante Bedi, Ernest Jaffarian & Phil Hatzopoulos – 1of2
TTU96: The Simplicity of Trend Following ft. Katy Kaminski, Alex Greyserman & Roberto Osorio – 2of2
Thanks for tuning in to the second part of our roundtable conversation with three of the leading voices in the trend following industry today. In this episode, we discuss how the industry has evolved, what the future looks like, and how to educate investors on the merits of trend following.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How has trend following evolved in the past decadeThe different kinds of diversification and how important they areThe concept of divergent strategiesDifferent ways of generating signalsWhy entries are the least importantHow to figure out what are the most robust parameters to useWhy you should try to debunk any new trading ideasHow trend following CTAs perform risk controlHow to educate investors on trend following firms and methodsHow many trend following managers should you invest in-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis AlphaReturn Dispersion, Counterintuitive Correlation (PDF)Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy Kaminski on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/kathryn-kaminski-phd-caia-9731445" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
5/19/2016 • 42 minutes, 7 seconds
TTU95: Redefining Trend Following ft. Katy Kaminski, Alex Greyserman & Roberto Osorio – 1of2
Thanks for tuning back into our show, we know it has been a while since we’ve published an episode. However, you are in for a real treat: this is the first episode where we have a roundtable of guests, representing some of the most prominent firms in the trend following space. Our guests have a combined 100 years of track record, and we’ll explore it all in this episode.We discuss the history of trend following, what it takes to practice trend following, and the human biases that effect our trading.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The history of trend-followingThe phenomenon of momentumWhen the concept of trend following that we know today came aboutWhy Katy & Alex gathered data from hundreds of years agoKaty talks about their book on Trend FollowingWhy markets are not getting more efficientWhy the edge in Trend Following is “knowing what you don’t know”How long it took for Alex to start believing in trend followingRoberto’s first exposure to trend followingWhy humility is necessary to practice trend followingThe importance of taking the human emotion out of the decision processKaty’s voodoo finance and heuristicsAre all CTA’s trend-followers?Alex’s Random Entry System that uses coin flipsThe three decisions that are involved in a tradeThe fact and fiction of how difficult it is to do trend-followingWhy humans suffer from representative biasThe factor of simplicity when making a trend following system-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis AlphaMarket WizardsTulip maniaDavid RicardoLake Wobegon syndromeFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
5/6/2016 • 54 minutes, 19 seconds
TTU94: Acknowledging Risk on a Daily Basis ft. Bill Dreiss of Dreiss Research Corporation – 2of2
In our continued conversation with Bill Dreiss, we dive into why he built his model the way that he did, and how he deals with factors like risk, drawdowns, and investor relationships. You’ll discover what he has learned from the drawdowns he has gone through, how the market has changed since 2009, and what the future looks like for Dreiss Research.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How he thinks about succession planningWhat people should be aware of in his long track record as a firmWhat has changed in the markets since 2009How markets are more interrelated than they ever have been beforeHow he describes what he is trying to achieve for his investorsWhy you shouldn’t be investing if you can’t live through a 50% drawdownWhat the choppiness index isWhy it is so difficult for people to see the advantages of CTAs and trend followingHow many commodities he tradesHow diversified his trading program isWhat differentiates Dreiss Research from other trend following CTAsHow he measures volatilityHow he defines risk and manages riskWhy you can over-manage risk and how to weather the drawdownsWhat he has learned from the drawdowns he has gone throughHow to manage a relationship with clients so that they trust the firm during drawdownsThe biggest challenges in his long careerWhat it takes to be a good traderWhy the world is too full of quants and people should use their talents in other fields-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:The Misbehavior of MarketsThe Secrets of Professional Turf BettingThe GamblerThinking, Fast and SlowFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener...
2/17/2016 • 58 minutes, 53 seconds
TTU93: Location Independence with Systematic Trading ft. Bill Dreiss of Dreiss Research Corporation – 1of2
Bill Dreiss has been an early adopter from the very beginning. After going to MIT and Harvard, he wanted to form a business that would allow him to be location independent and allow him to surf, his life passion. Fortunately, systems trading found him.He bought a computer before individuals owned them, started a systems trading firm before almost any of them existed, and has been in business trading his own model fro more than 25 years. You’ll gain a career’s worth of knowledge in this fantastic episode.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Bill’s firm is so uniqueHow he went to Harvard business school and then went to work for a Think Tank in CaliforniaHow he developed his first trading system in the 1970sHow he did systematic trading by hand in the early days, without computersThe unique system that was the first system he builtThe first company that he started with a few partners in early 1975How he used to manage 180 clients before computersThe first computer he bought before individuals owned computersWhy he stopped managing outside money for a few yearsWhat made him setup his current company in 1991How he setup his first trading model with Dreiss Research CorporationWhy he was heavily influenced by Boinot MandelbrotWhy trend following is declared dead every few years, but why it is only sleepingWhy he trades longer term and only updates his system about once a weekHow he first managed to automate his system way before other people were able to do itHow the environment has changed from very few system traders to almost completely system tradersWhat differentiates Bill from a lot of other system tradersHow he deals with risk managementWhat drives him in his career and how he has kept it up for so longWhy he thinks in how much leisure time he can have rather than how much money he could makeHow marketing a firm is very importantWhy surfing is so important to himWhy being location independent was very important to him in setting up his business-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about Richard DunchianLearn more about Benoit MandelbrotFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a...
2/8/2016 • 1 hour, 40 seconds
TTU92: Clear & Explainable Trend Models ft. Andreas Clenow of ACIES Asset Management – 2of2
In our continued conversation with Andreas Clenow, we discuss the research and work that goes into making his trading model, how he deals with risk and drawdowns, and how he explains his models to potential investors. In this episode, we will dive into how clear and explainable a trading model should be, and what questions you should ask firms before investing in them.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Andreas does his research and what research he looks for in other firmsWhy a track record matters and how it mattersHow trend following has done over the last few yearsHow he builds his own trading strategiesWhat he does with position sizing and how important it isHow he allocates risk on his different modelsWhat he does to measure the environment on trend followingWhat he thinks about sector allocation and diversificationThe kinds of risk management that he uses in his modelWhere he uses stop losses and where he doesn’tHow he talks to investors about drawdownsWhat questions investors should be asking him about his trading modelHow to detect if a manager’s strategy has stopped workingWhy people shouldn’t be scared of asking lots of questionsWhat motivates him to work on his jobAbout the biggest failures of Andreas’ career-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Market Wizards by Jack SchwagerTrend Following with Managed Futures by Kathryn KaminskiListen to my interview with Kathryn Kaminski here and hereDual Momentum Investing by Gary AntonacciBuy Andreas’ books.Check out his website FollowingTheTrend.com.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/flavor" rel="noopener...
1/25/2016 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 50 seconds
TTU91: Keeping it Simple in Trend Following ft. Andreas Clenow of ACIES Asset Management
Our guest today is a successful trader, businessman, and author. He is known for his books Following The Trend and Stocks on the Move, and after an impressive career at Reuters finance he moved on to ACIES Asset Management in Switzerland.In our conversation, we discuss trend following and the need to keep it simple, the mistakes that retail traders make, and how to start a new firm in this day and age.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The many skill sets that Andreas hasHow he wrote the books that he is known forWhy he has a large degree of flexibility with his firm and the capital they manageHow he grew up in a small town in Sweden…with lots of cows!About the computer company that he startedHow he left the corporate worldHow he started at ACIESWhat Andreas does when he is not workingThe books he has written about systematic trading strategiesThe value of simplicityWhat Andreas thinks about trend followingThe issues with doing trend following on stocksHow he got the freedom to write a bookWhat retail traders will get from his booksWhy managing your own money is a bad tradeWhat he thinks about technical analysis and how to define itWhat it takes to start a firm or trading business-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Listen to our episode with Jerry Parker recapping 2014.A Definition of ATR (Average True Range).Buy Andreas’ books.Check out his website FollowingTheTrend.com.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a...
1/18/2016 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 25 seconds
TTU90: Why Diversification is Key ft. Robert Carver, Author & Trader – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with Robert Carver, we dive into the specifics of his trading strategy, why he doesn’t trade full time, and what he thinks about the trend-following space in general.You’ll hear his thoughts on drawdowns, research teams, risk, and more. You won’t want to miss his insight and clear explanations of some of finance’s most complicated topics.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The two components of risk, and all about unpredictable riskWhat sets one manager apart from the otherHis view on stop-lossesHow target volatility works for a lot of CTA managersHow he would put together a research team for a fund managerThe problem with hiring a lot of people with the same backgroundHow investors should read the track records of firmsThe concerns and misconceptions about systematized and trend-following strategiesWhy he is so keen on looking at sharp ratioThe issues with skew but why he keeps an eye on itWhat his own trading system looks like todayThe style of trader that he ended up becomingHow to find out what to expect when a drawdown happensWhat investors should ask but they never doHow he got over the failures that he has had in business-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about AHLLearn about Sharpe RatioCheck out The Predictors bookLearn more about Eugene FarmaFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
12/9/2015 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 5 seconds
TTU89: Creating a Simple System & Sticking To It ft. Robert Carver, Author & Trader – 1of2
Robert Carver spends most of his book telling you that he is not a good trader. So why did he devote his life and a whole book to the subject?Because he believes in systematic trading; making a simple trading system and sticking to it.In this episode, we dive into his new book and explore why simplicity is the key, people think they are better traders than they are, and so much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Robert decided to write his new book, Systematic TradingRobert reads the preface to his new bookHe explains one of the biggest investing mistakes of his careerThe book that got him interested in the financial industryHow he got a job with AHLWhy he wrote a book with very little math involved so that he spoke to a large audienceThe 3 types of investors that he defines in the bookHow cognitive biases in humans make them bad tradersWhy he spends a lot of his book explaining how bad he is at tradingWhether trend following and other divergent strategies work or notWhy sticking to a plan is so importantHow the markets and CTAs will change once the interest rate changesThe differences between a subjective and an objective systemThings that people should avoid when creating a trading systemWhy few people have a good handle on overtradingMachine learning approaches vs. idea approaches to creating trading programsHow systematic trading adapts-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about AHLLearn about Sharpe RatioLiar’s Poker by Michael LewisThinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel KahnemanFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
12/2/2015 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 38 seconds
TTU88: The Importance of Explaining the Why ft. Andrew Baxter of Cambridge Capital Management – 2of2
In this episode, we dive into the models and processes that Cambridge Capital and Andrew Baxter use to manage risk, research new ideas, and grow their business. We also talk about the importance for managers to explain why they do what they do, rather than just what they do.Listen in to learn more about the future of the managed futures industry and how to be successful in it.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How his forecast method worksHow he develops his basic modelsHow they come up with new ideas for models at Cambridge CapitalThe various short term and long term models that they employ and how they use themWhen they make interventions to the systemThe risk management they use and why they have a risk budgetWhy they are continuously adjusting their risk in the marketThe drawdowns that they expect to see in their program and the ones that they have been throughWhy he thinks CTA firms had significantly higher drawdowns in 2013 then they had ever had beforeHow their research cycles workHow to compare a life track record with a simulation of the current programWhy we should look at why managers do things more than what they doWhy raising assets is the biggest challenge his firm faces todayWhat it takes to become a great fund managerThe skill that he would pass onto his childrenThe challenges he sees for the CTA space-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of CrowdsThe Winner’s Cursebooks by Reinhold MessnerFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu"...
11/22/2015 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 23 seconds
TTU87: An Engineer Using Machine Learning to Trade ft. Andrew Baxter of Cambridge Capital Managment – 1of2
Andrew Baxter worked at British Aerospace as an engineer before joining the investment management world. He still considers himself an engineer.Listen in to learn how he uses machine learning, why he keeps innovating, and how he started his own firm.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Andrew considers himself an engineerHow he went from engineer to investment managementHow he started his firmHis philosophy on the investment management processWhy he harvests risk premiumsWhat he likes to do when he is not workingHow he works with machine learningThe things they learned from their career history that helped them build Cambridge Capital ManagementWhy it is important to stay ahead of the pack and keep innovatingWhat they do in-house versus outsourcingThe culture that he tries to cultivate at his companyHow he talks about track record to his investorsHow he evolved as the managed futures industry changed over the yearsWhat he does to manage riskThe objective of his program from a top-down viewThe different markets that his program trades-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of CrowdsThe Winner’s Cursebooks by Reinhold MessnerFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew...
11/15/2015 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 52 seconds
TTU86: Predictions on Crude Oil, Copper, War, Plus More on Cycles ft. David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research – 2of2
In this second part of our conversation, we dive into the specifics of how Charles Nenner and his team make their predictions, and what they predict in certain markets like Crude Oil, Copper, and Natural Gas. We also discuss the cycle of a major war at the beginning of each century, and David’s personal story of why he is just as curious today as the day he started.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How they predict the price, and how the price and cycles work together.The fifth category they predict on is economic indicators.What is happening when a market is not behaving as the cycle they show indicates.What are some of the indicators of a big event like 9/11.Where he thinks Natural Gas is going.What he thinks about Copper.The battle between inflation and deflation and where he stands on those terms.About the 100 year war cycle and what he predicts for the next war.The cycles of infectious disease.Why they don’t have a fund that trades off of their predictions.The different types of clients they have.Why he does the job that he does.Why it is important to listen well.Why he thinks that thinking and listening are a lost art.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Read the article David mentions in this episode featuring his work in Oil & Gas Investor.David recommends reading Chaos by James Gleick.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Visit the...
7/15/2015 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 14 seconds
TTU85: The Cycles of Financial Markets ft. David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research – 1of2
This episode has a unique and interesting guest, the kind we rarely have on this show. David Gurwitz does not trade in the financial markets, but provides predictions and research to many firms, including some we have interviewed. He looks at the cycles in financial markets. Keep an open mind during this episode and see what you can learn about Charles Nenner’s research methods, the start of their research business, and what predictions they have been correct on and which ones they missed.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How David explains what he does, and how this interview is different.How he played semi-professional basketball in Spain before going into accounting.How he met Charles Nenner.How their business works and how cycles works.How Charles has predicted crude oil drop in 2014.What they look at when making their predictions.How they do media appearances and how media has changed.How they go about doing their research.Why sunspots might affect the stock market shifts.How different cultures are more open to the idea of cycles and their effect on the financial sector.The predictions they’ve made in recent years on the Yen, Gold, and the Euro.Why looking back at history can show interesting lessons.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Read the article David mentions in this episode featuring his work in Oil & Gas Investor.David recommends reading Chaos by James Gleick.Listen to past episodes with a predictions expert Mahendra Sharma here and here.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
7/7/2015 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 39 seconds
TTU84: Being Authentic & Transparent with Your Investors ft. Natasha Reeve-Gray of Altis Partners – 2of2
In this second part of our conversation, Natasha dives into the details of the trading model and portfolio of Altis Partners, her firm. We discuss how they approach risk management, and how they’ve dealt with drawdowns over the years. She also gives her take on the future of the managed futures industry, what advice she would give to emerging firm managers, and other lessons she has learned along the way.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About how Natasha and her team constructs their portfolio.How their models are adaptive.What their integrated risk approach does and how it works.What she thinks the capacity is of the strategy that her firm has.How she defines risk.How correlations play a part in their portfolio.Which sectors of the market do well with their model.How she sets the expectations for what kinds of drawdowns they might have.How to help investors with the emotional rollercoaster of drawdowns.How the firm goes about doing research.How to detect if a certain model stops working.What lessons they have learned from all their years in business.How success changes your mindset.Why it’s good to have people to look up to.Her biggest challenge facing her firm today.What investors are not asking when at due diligence meetings with her firm.Why a long term relationship with a client is important.What advice she would give to emerging managers today.Where she thinks the managed futures industry is going as a whole.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Natasha recommends reading The Hard Thing About Hard Things, a book about building a business and entrepreneurship.She also recommends Fortune’s Formula, by William Poundstone.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating
7/5/2015 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 18 seconds
TTU83: Starting a Quant Firm from Scratch ft. Natasha Reeve-Gray of Altis Partners – 1of2
Our next guest left a well known trading firm in London to start a quantitative trading firm with 3 other partners. There’s a lot to be learned from her insights on starting a business, building a culture, and making it through the obstacles along the way. Listen in for our discussions on the startup phase and the current trading model.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Natasha and her founding partners all worked at the same firm before breaking out on their own.About her childhood growing up as an only child and what got her interested in finance.How she got her first job in finance.When she got hired by QCM.How she met her founding partners.How and why Natasha and her founding partners broke off from QCM.How she set up her new firm with her partners.How they each had a different area of the business that they focused on.The big obstacles of the early days and knowing which people to talk to.What the biggest learning curve was in terms of hiring the right people.Why they built a 24-month buffer for their business that would let them stay in business if things went down.Why the’ve gone to the cloud for their business.The details of their core team.What would require them to expand the team.How Natasha explains their track record to investors and potential client.About how they reacted to the period of 2011-2013.The details of their trading program and what their philosophy is behind the program.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about the film Trading Places, that inspired Natasha to pursue futures trading.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
6/29/2015 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 47 seconds
TTU82: Simplicity vs. Complexity in Trading Models ft. Oliver Steinki of Evolutiqz – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with the cofounder of Evolutiq, we dive into the firm’s trading strategy, how they manage risk, and what kinds of investors they seek. He also discusses tips for budding entrepreneurs and firm managers, and how he deals with explaining the complexity of his trading models.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The details of Oliver’s portfolio.What types of markets have more success for their models.Their unique allocation process.How to explain these scientific terms to potential investors.The question of simplicity vs. complexity.How they managed intra-day forecasting.How he manages risk.The way that market correlations play into the portfolio.Oliver’s thoughts on drawdowns and the worst ones that he is expecting.How do you know when a model has stopped working.What Oliver’s experience has been as the world has become more divergent.What keeps him up at night.What he is looking at in his research for the firm right now.How models can start decaying.Who he is targeting for his firm.How he manages the cash portion of his accounts.How setting up a company outside the big financial center affects his business.What questions investors should be asking him during due diligence meetings.The advice he would give to aspiring managers.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Oliver recommends reading The Mathematics of Money Management.He also recommends Algorithmic Trading.Learn more about Harry Markowitz, mentioned in this episode.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a...
6/8/2015 • 59 minutes, 34 seconds
TTU81: How A Serial Entrepreneur Built an Algorithmic Trading Firm ft. Oliver Steinki of Evolutiq – 1of2
Our next guest has started and invested in many companies, and is from an entrepreneurial background. First and foremost, he is concerned with running a business, but he also knew he wanted to be a portfolio manager from an early age. Hear the fascinating story of Oliver Steinki on this episode, as we dive into his new firm and the details behind his models and strategy.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The entrepreneurial background that Oliver comes from.How he studied in Germany, Madrid, and Manchester.About his childhood and when he started to realize he was interested in mathematics and finance.What he likes doing when he is not managing his own firm.What algorithmic trading is all about.How the scientific trading model generates signals.What the trade implementation phase entails and how it works.What it is that Oliver is trying to deliver to his investors.About the other companies he started before his current firm, and all the different industries those companies are in.Why he is a business man first and a trader second.Who is on his team and the roles they fill.Why the early phase of his business is important and what you can learn from how Oliver tackles this phase.How he would scale his current business model.How he creates a culture and keeps a partnership with his cofounders.His track record so far.The details of how his strategy is created.What a levy-process model is.How many models he is testing and trading and how different they are.Why they need to be right 54% of the time with their models.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Read about the French mathematician that Oliver discusses, Paul Lévy.Niels mentions his earlier conversations with Dave Sanderson, which you can listen to here and here.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a...
6/2/2015 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 50 seconds
TTU80: Managing Your Emotional Capital ft. Mike Coleman of RCMA Asset Managementz – 2of2
TTU79: The Romance of Trading Commodities ft. Mike Coleman of RCMA Asset Management – 1of2
Our next guest lives in Singapore, where he founded a firm that trades in the commodity markets. In this episode, we trace his upbringing in the UK and his first job at Cargill to the start of his firm. We discuss the growth and downsizing periods he has gone through and how he builds a successful business.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Where Mike grew up and how his upbringing shaped his career.How he was interested in travel from an early age, and found out about commodity trading in his final year of university.How he started out as a commodity merchant with Cargill.How he fell into rubber trading which led him to Singapore in 1984.About the beginnings of RCMA.How the commodity markets have changed over the years, and what kinds of companies are still working with commodity trading.The most important things he learned at Cargill that helped in the management of his own firm.What he learned before computers become ubiquitous on trading desks.What Mike likes to do in his spare time.How to make sure you are set up for success when you start a business or firm.How you get through the hard times of your business as an entrepreneur.What he does to organize his firm to make it run in the best way possible.How they’ve dealt with a boom and bust phase in their business, including personnel.The way that he has built the culture in his business.How investors should read a track record from a discretionary trader.What patterns he looks for when trading for commodities.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mike Coleman on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pub/michael-coleman/5/25b/238" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
4/13/2015 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 59 seconds
TTU78: If You Believe In Your Models, Never Deviate From Them ft. Kim Bang of Prolific Capital Markets – 2of2
In our second part of this conversation, we dive into the details of the program that Kim runs. We discuss why it’s important to stick with your models, even in times of severe drawdowns, and how Kim views risk. He also talks about the books and people that have inspired him in his career.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The details behind the program Kim runs.What he feels about larger drawdowns.What kind of indicators goes into the models that he uses.Why he uses a non-cyclical approach to creating trading models.How he looks at volatility.What kind of mean reversion strategies he uses.How he responded to the Swiss Franc move.How Kim quantifies risk.How do you prepare for a drawdown when you haven’t gone through a significant one?How his firm comes up with new ideas and goes about doing research.The positives and challenges with working as a father and son team in the same firm.How he knows when a model has stopped working.What he is doing to launch his first fund.What questions investors should be asking in due diligence conversations with him.What books have impacted Kim’s career.How he sees the firm in the future.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Books that have influenced Kim include Market Wizards, The Quants, and books by Ralph Vince.Learn more about people who have inspired Kim, including Roy Niederhoffer, Welles Wilder, and John Henry.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a...
3/31/2015 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 43 seconds
TTU77: Competing in the Long Tail of Managed Futures ft. Kim Bang of Prolific Capital Markets – 1of2
TTU76: Why He Still Trades His Own Money ft. Barnaby Cardwell of Cardwell Investment Technologies – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with Barnaby Cardwell, we dive into the details of his program, how he built his company, and what he thinks it takes to be a good manager of a trading firm.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What indicators Barnaby considers more reliable.How he gets into a trade.How important is the position sizing?How much AUM his model can handle.Risk management: how he defines risk and what he does to mitigate it.What he has learned from drawdowns.What keeps Barnaby awake at night.Trading spread between markets and the research his firm is doing into that space.Why he focuses on the managed-account route.How he stands out from the crowd to attract investors.About “key-man” risk.What potential investors don’t ask in their due diligence questions.What it takes to be a great trader.What books have inspired him in trading and life.What his biggest failure is so far.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:People that have inspired Barnaby include James Harris Simons, QIM, and the book Trading in the Zone.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Barnaby Cardwell on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pub/barnaby-cardwell/19/576/848" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
3/5/2015 • 52 minutes, 27 seconds
TTU75: Competing in the Short Term Space ft. Barnaby Cardwell of Cardwell Investment Technologies – 1of2
Our next guest is a fund manager in the short-term space, and thus is distinct from many of the guests on this podcast. He discusses how he got into the financial markets from a young age, and why he decided to trade in the short term space in order to separate himself from the competition. Listen in for details into his program and how he started his hedge fund.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Barnaby grew up and what got him interested in the financial markets.Why he left being a broker and went in to a more systematic approach.How he met his future business partner.How they started his fund in late 2008.What it was about the Market Wizards books that captured his imagination.What he does to compete outside of trading.His first mentor and what he taught Barnaby.Why he decided to go short term.How automation has changed his industry.How he gets through the hard times in the market.An overview of the program that his company runs.How he set up his company and attracted investors.The challenges that let to auto-execution of trades.How he builds a strong culture in an organization.How he wants people to look at his track record.Why he uses time-based stops.The details of the short term models he uses.How he creates a strategy.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about Market Wizards and Jack Schwager.Check out information on Toby Crabel and his book.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review...
3/2/2015 • 57 minutes, 58 seconds
TTU74: 2015 Predictions for Currencies, Gold, Oil and More ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology – 2of2
TTU72: Adding Value to Your System ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 2of2
In the second part of our talk with Mike Shell, we delve into the specifics of his program and why most of his clients have 100% of their investments with his firm. He discusses backtesting, risk management, and the differences between purely systematic systems and systems with a discretionary element. Listen in for an inside look at this fascinating firm.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How people should look at Mike’s 10 year track record and how his models have evolved over that time.How much of the strategy is machine run and how much is human run.What he does when he backtest a system.How he started out as a chartist in the 1990s.What is it that he can’t systematize.The difference between a trader that is purely systematic and one that has a discretionary element, however small.How his investors use his program.What his approach to risk management is and how it plays out with his program.Why he doesn’t take on much short exposure.What’s the biggest challenge with his business right now.How to expand the customer base to investment advisors.What books Mike would recommend.What he’d do differently if he had to start all over today.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this EpisodeTechnical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John MurphyMarket Wizards by Jack SchwagerTrend Following by Michael CovelFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
2/12/2015 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 41 seconds
TTU71: Why You Don’t Want Symmetry in Investing ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 1of2
Most trend following firms have clients that invest somewhere between 2 and 20% of their portfolio with that firm, but Mike Shell’s firm is different. His strategy is tailored to a specific customer, and almost all of his clients have their entire investment portfolios with his firm. We dive into the specifics of Shell Capital Management in this episode, and how Mike grew up in the southern United States with a military background to become the owner of his own firm.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The ways that Mike’s firm is different from other firms.His upbringing in Tennessee.How he started Shell Capital in 2004.The books that influenced him in his trend following education.What his experience was in the brokerage world.Why he left the brokerage world and what gave him the courage to become an entrepreneur.His experience in the military and law enforcement.What he does when he’s not trading.Why symmetry is the last thing he wants when it comes to investing.How his asymmetry term came about.Why he relishes uncertainty.How he structures his firm to compete in his industry.How the firm plans to grow and what they outsource.The way that people should interpret his track record.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:How to Make Money in StocksMarket WizardsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mike Shell on <a...
2/9/2015 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 51 seconds
TTU70: Market Intervention & The Effect on Trend Following ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group
TTU54: What it Takes to Be an Entrepreneur ft. Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Advisors – 2of2
In the second part of our talk with Tim Pickering, we dive into the details of his firm and the challenges that he has to overcome as a business owner and entrepreneur. Tim has some valuable life lessons for managers who are just getting started. He also dives into the different ways investors should carry out their due diligence and why he wanted to become a manager in the first place.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The details of Auspice’s programs and what makes them different from other managers.What discretionary traders are good at and how Tim captures lessons from them in a systematic model.How he implements the system in practice.How Tim measures risk.How he copes with being in a drawdown.What he has learned from the drawdowns that Auspice has been through.What keeps him up at night.What questions he brainstorms with his research team currently.How to detect if a model is deteriorating.How meaningful are back tests?About the CTA value-added index that Auspice developed.The difference in investing through a fund, an EFT, or other options.What investors should be asking when they go through their due diligence with Auspice Capital.Why he became an entrepreneur.The books Tim would recommend for traders and managers.What skill he would pass on to his children if he could choose only one.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Barclay CTA IndexBooks by Jack Schwager.Simon Sinek’s Start with Why.How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie.The Prize by Daniel Yergin.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank"...
12/29/2014 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 15 seconds
TTU53: Trend Following vs. Trend Capturing ft. Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Advisors – 1of2
What is the difference between simply following a trend and capturing it? Why is growth not consistent and gradual and why do we want it to be?Learn answers to these questions and more in this week’s episodes. Niels chats with the founder of a seasoned trend-follower in Canada, who knew he wanted to go into the financial markets since his university days. His story of working for large investment banks to starting his own firm will inspire current managers and hopeful managers alike.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Tim tries to get away from being labelled as one thing or another.About growing up on a farm in Canada.How he knew he wanted to be a trader.How his experience in the energy markets affected the way he ran his business when he started it.Why discipline is so important for the kind of manager that Tim is.Why he has stuck with the theme of trading commodities.What Tim does when he is not running Auspice.The difference between following a trend and capturing a trend.How growth is not slow and steady.An overview of the products that Auspice runs.Why they launched a beta product after launching their flagship product.The history of how Tim grew Auspice with his business partner.How he chose to structure his business.How a small team can deliver the same value as a larger manager.What people should notice when looking at the track record of Auspice.What the Diversified Program does.How many markets he actually trades.Why position resizing is important.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Tim Pickering on <a href="https://ca.linkedin.com/pub/tim-pickering/11/b91/5a2" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
12/22/2014 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 36 seconds
TTU52: Do Amazing Things Just By Showing Up ft. Rob Hartman of Pacific Capital Advisors – 2of2
Rob Hartman knows that showing up is half the battle when it comes to work in any industry. But his viewpoint as a solo fund manager give us deep insight into the inner-workings of a firm and how it deals with drawdowns, track record, and investors’ questions. In Part 2 of our conversation with Rob, we dive into his models and programs and how each of them works. We also learn about Rob’s background that helps round out this picture of a successful manager.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Hannah Montana has some life lessons to teach.Rob’s track record and how to read it.What happened when he changed his strategy.The details of the programs he runs.How Vanguard, his flagship product, works.How he manages his momentum trades, or trend following trades.Why his thoughts on position sizing have evolved over time.How he conducts his research and why he doesn’t do any discretionary trading on his models.The risk that he focuses on as a smaller manager and how he manages that risk.How he deals with questions about drawdowns from investors.How Rob copes emotionally when he experiences a drawdown.What his research process is without a research team.What is the optimal number of rules for Rob’s models to have.What questions investors are missing in their due diligence.Books he would recommend for would-be managers.The advice he gives to his kids and the lessons he wants to pass on.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Van Tharp – Trade Your Way To Financial FreedomRishi Narang – Inside the Black Box: A Simple Guide to Quantitative and High Frequency TradingRob also mentions getting inspiration from Kathryn Kaminski, who was our guest on Episode 41 and Episode 42.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
12/18/2014 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 17 seconds
TTU51: Planning for Failure, Not Planning to Fail ft. Rob Hartman of Pacific Capital Advisors – 1of2
TTU50: Why Optimism is Important ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management – 2of2
Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Dave Sanderson. In this episode we explore his trading program in detail, from the markets the firm trades to how they describe their program to investors. We also explore the challenges that he goes through as a business leader, dealing with drawdowns, and why optimism is so important to Dave.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Dave believes that QIM is a unique firm in a reasonably similar category as KFL Capital Management.How to describe Krystal to investors and why it can be a challenge.About the length of time it takes for Krystal to compute the data and make a decision.Why the breakthroughs in computational power are supporting KFL Capital Management to make their systems faster each year.The markets KFL trades.Expected drawdown and volatility Krystal expects.How Dave expects to deal with drawdown environments.Research cycles within KFL Capital Management and the potential for a second Krystal.About the 99.3% match rate between their live trading and back testing results.The biggest challenge for KFL Capital Management in today’s market.About the challenge of attracting AUM in the modern financial landscape.Asymmetry of agency and understanding how to focus on who you’re talking to.Regarding the difficulties of explaining machine learning and big data ideas.Commonalities in the highest level due diligence explorers.Entrepreneurial perspective, great books and an open minded perspective on failures.Why optimism is such a powerful force in today’s world.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:The Medallion Fund – Jim Simon’s Fund.The Innovators by Water Isaacson.Zero to One by Peter Thiel.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd...
12/4/2014 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 1 second
TTU49: Will Big Data Enable KFL to Predict the Future? ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management – 1of2
Our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged is the CEO and Co-Founder of KFL. In this episode we explore their trading strategy and uncover the fundamental differences between what they are doing that makes them so different from traditional alternative investment organizations.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Transitioning from commercial litigation to wholesale mutual fund vendingHow Dave Sanderson was exposed to alternative investments in the first placeThe convincing required to get top big data scientists to work on financial challengesThe comical story of how carefully big data scientist come to conclusionsWhat Dave Sanderson loves to do when he isn’t working directly on KFL Capital ManagementHow Dave Sanderson sees the deviation between machine learning and systematic tradingWhat it means to exist in a deluge of big dataHow Dave Sanderson and KFL perceive themselves and the usefulness of labelingIs machine learning a superior method than conventional approaches to trading?About the choice of Krystal as a name for their fundThe structuring challenges behind KFL Capital Management and why they are more like a tech firmThe focus for expanding KFL Capital ManagementAbout evolutionary computing and how KFL Capital Management grows with the marketsIs there an environment which would be optimal for Krystal?Is there an environment which would be severely challenging for Krystal?The use of non-parametric modeling and why this type of prediction takes KFL out of most conventional finance sector buckets-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Man AHL – Dave Sanderson’s initial exposure to alternative investment.Thomas K. Hunter – “He’s probably done more tech deals than anybody in Canada.”Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode...
12/1/2014 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 11 seconds
TTU48: How to Understand a New Manager’s Track Record ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital – 2of2
In the second part of our interview with Bastian, we talk about the ins and outs of his trading program and how they came to create the current trading system that they run now. Niels talks with Bastian about drawdowns, risk management, and how investors should read and understand a manager’s track record. Listen in to find out more about Deep Field Capital and learn what it takes to be an successful emerging manager today.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About the 23 potential markets that Bastian trades, and which ones are actually traded.How he uses a “bus stop” metaphor to explain which markets get picked for trading.How he views risk and how he deals with risk management.If there are certain markets that are better performing for his strategies than others.What kinds of drawdowns he expects his strategy to go through.The three different types of investors that come in to his fund.What he learns from drawdowns when they happen.About the research and futures development that his firm conducts.What the biggest challenges are today for his business.What reason investors give for not investing in his fund.What question investors are not asking in their due diligence.If he was starting out today, the things he would have done differently.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Bastian Bolesta on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/bastian-bolesta-95a107b/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
11/27/2014 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 4 seconds
TTU47: How to Start Managing Client Capital ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital – 1of2
The story of Deep Field Capital’s Founder and CEO is an interesting one. Bastian Bolesta met his future partners whilst spending a semester abroad in China before returning to Germany and then moving to Switzerland to join them. The team also moved from the discretionary trading space to a unique way of systematic trading. Deep Field is a relative newcomer to the industry as they don’t have a 20+ year track record, so our conversation has timely insights for those looking to start a firm and begin managing external client capital.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Bastian’s background and how he got interested in finance.How he grew up in Frankfurt and went to university there.What he learned from a semester abroad in China and why he returned there after graduating.How he met his future business parters and started their first business.How they went from the discretionary trading mindset to a systematic trading firm.How they came up with their initial trading ideas.The difference between discretionary and systematic traders.What he does when he’s not running his business.Pros and cons of trading external capital and how they started trading other people’s money.How Bastian looks at the industry as a young and vibrant firm (started after 2008) and offers a different perspective then those who have 20+ years in the industry.How he built the business from the ground up and how to grow a business smartly.How to convince investors that you can compete with larger managers.How regulation affects the business.The track record of their strategy and how investors should look at it.The details of their trading program, and why they work in “themes”.The allocation process for his program.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Bastian mentions this “Pick Me” moment from the movie Shrek.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a...
11/24/2014 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 15 seconds
TTU46: The Benefits of Negative Correlation ft. Roy Niederhoffer of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management – 2of2
In our continued conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, we discuss risk management, drawdowns, why negative correlation is so important to Roy, and what gets him out of bed every morning (and what keeps him awake at night). Learn more about how to create a balanced and diversified portfolio or what it takes to be a manager.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What has changed by the fact that more and more trading decisions are made by computers instead of humans.The issue of model decay in Roy’s field.Why he has constructed his trading program the way that he has.His ten-step process from idea generation to putting it into the system. The research process laid out.How his firm does research.How position sizing plays a role in the short term space.How he keeps model slippage to a minimum.Risk management and how Roy deals with it.When to use discretion to reduce risk.What he learns from going through a drawdown.How he keeps investors in the firm during a tough time.How he personally deals with drawdowns.How he measures the effectiveness of his research.If his risk tolerance went down once he had more money under management.What the biggest challenge is for Roy in the short term management space.What investors are not asking him during due diligence.What makes him go into work everyday.Books that Roy recommends reading for managers and investors.How the office environment affects how investors perceive a firm.About downside protection and negative correlation.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Roy mentions the Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.He recommends Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.Roy highly recommends Thinking, Fast and Slow.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a...
11/20/2014 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 52 seconds
TTU45: How To Overcome Cognitive Bias in Investing & Trading ft. Roy Niederhoffer of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management – 1of2
Roy Niederhoffer has a fascinating live story that starts with Harvard and neuroscience and continues into his starting a hedge fund in the short-term trading space in 1993. Roy discusses the exciting and bootstrapping beginnings of his firm, the cognitive biases that keep most humans from making good investment decisions, and how his firm stands out from other CTAs. Investors and managers alike will learn a wealth of information from this episode.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Roy got interested in the financial markets from an interest in computers at a young age.How he started a company that had 30 employees by the end of his high school.How his brother was an early adopter in the Hedge Fund space.How he spent his undergraduate years studying neuroscience.Roy graduated from Harvard and was set to go to Cambridge for neuroscience until he worked for his brother for a summer.The story of how he started his firm and when he began trading in July 1993.How the human brain influences behavior and how that translates to trading.Cognitive biases and how to avoid them in the financial market.What Roy thinks of trend following and how to explain it to the public.The other investors he worked at in his first job out of college, that later became famous investors in their own right.Why Roy’s firm was “employing” a cook and a maid when they started the business in 1993.How he plays in a symphony and keeps up his pursuit of being a musician while running his firm at the same time.What he thinks about the future of the CTA industry.How his model works in an ecosystem of other portfolio management options.How they distinguish themselves from other CTAs.An overview of the strategies that his firm does today.How the infrastructure of the business is setup today and the unique opportunities of the short term space.What he looks for when adding people to his research team.The culture that he has created at the firm.What matters to him when investors look at the track record of his firm.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about Roy from his wikipedia article.Niels mentions that listeners should also check out the Top Traders Unplugged episodes with Kathryn Kaminsky.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written <a...
11/17/2014 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 39 seconds
TTU44: Buy Low & Sell High: Is It Really That Easy? ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with the founder of Whitmore Capital Management, we learn the daily challenges, and lessons learned right from the founder and owner of a fledgling firm. We dive into discussions on risk management, drawdown, attracting outside capital, and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How many currencies Mark trades and if he thinks he will trade more in the future.About how he diversifies his system.A case study of the Russian Ruble.His use of charts when looking at currencies.A discussion of cognitive biases.How he compares his system to trend following and how the two models can work in harmony.How he enters and exists a trade using his system.Why he is an “every end of two weeks” trader.How much capital he would like his strategy to manage and how much it can feasibly manage.How he defines risk and manages risk.How he deals with drawdowns as a fund manager.What he learns from going through drawdowns.How he goes about doing research for his strategy without a research team.How he sees red flags in his strategy and when he has changed his model.How Mark goes about marketing and getting interest from investors in his strategy and fund.How he plans to avoid becoming more risk averse as the firm grows.What he thinks about the “key man” issue and what he is doing to plan for the eventuality of leaving his business to someone else.How he decided the location of his business.What the hardest thing will be for him as he tries to grow the business.What investors should be asking him that they are not.What it takes to become a great trader in Mark’s view.What he learned from the baseball card market in the US during his university years.What he has learned from past failures.His favorite books and why he recommends them.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Mark has authored many white papers on currencies, including:Currency Investing: An Alpha-Rich EnvironmentHow to Invest When Both Stocks and Bonds are OverpricedThe Case for Currencies as an Asset Class Becomes StrongerBooks that Mark mentions and recommends:Winning The Loser’s GameThe Obstacle is The WayEconomics in One LessonThe Structure of Scientific RevolutionsFollow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener...
11/13/2014 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 30 seconds
TTU43: The Case For Currencies As An Asset Class ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 1of2
Our next guest started his firm back in 2012, and we’re talking to him at a special moment in the company’s evolution as it starts to gain outside capital and make its mark in the industry. Listen in to gain insights into how a manager started his firm in the current environment, the inside view on currencies as an asset class, and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Mark was interested in finance from a very early age and learned from his adoptive parents.About his time studying macroeconomics in college.The story of his career and how it took a windy series of turns before heading into the financial market.His time studying currencies when he was in law school and his time as lawyer.How he started getting into the financial markets by investing in stocks in the late 90s.How he quit his job as a lawyer and planned to go into the financial services sector.His ventures into the currency markets and why he considered them in the first place.How he started by managing his own money.What he sees in currencies as an asset class and how he describes that to investors.How the currency market has changed throughout the years.How he decided to launch his business in 2012 and how he got organized to take outside capital.How he built the organization and his business.What kind of organization he would like to grow into in the future.Why culture in a small company is a very important issue.How he looks at track record, being such a young company.How he created the models he uses for his strategy.The example of the Euro and what Mark predicts for the currency in 5 years.His thoughts on the Swiss Franc and the historical context of its value.The Singapore Dollar and how it is likened to the Swiss Franc.How many currencies he trades.How he thinks about diversification.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Mark mentions the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street in this episode.Mark has authored many white papers on currencies, including:Currency Investing: An Alpha-Rich EnvironmentHow to Invest When Both Stocks and Bonds are OverpricedThe Case for Currencies as an Asset Class Becomes StrongerFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read
11/10/2014 • 1 hour, 22 minutes, 42 seconds
TTU42: Why You Need this Trading Strategy TODAY ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 2of2
Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with researcher and co-author of one of the definitive books on trend following. In this conversation, we dive into the the models that she used in writing the book, as well as her thoughts regarding risk management, what you should be asking a manager during due diligence, and what the future holds for the managed futures industry.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What Kathryn looks at when evaluating the track records of managers.Her thoughts on the recent performance of trend followers.About price range compression.If she has a favorite statistic to look at when analyzing a manager.How she and her co-author came up with the trading strategy that they use in their book.Why the exit from a position is just as important as the entrance.What trend leakage is.Her views on how inflation and other environmental changes affects trend following strategies.About diversification.About risk management; how Kathryn defines risk and what is important to look at in risk management.Kathryn explains the topics of hidden and unhidden risk.What kind of drawdowns should be expected from a trend following model.A discussion of the drawdowns that trend followers have experience in the last few years.Seeing drawdowns as a buying opportunity.How to detect if a manager’s models and system has stopped working.The biggest challenge for the CTA industry right now.What she would ask of David Harding.What questions investors should be asking of managers when doing their due diligence.What personalities traits a good trend following manager should have.Her thoughts on regulation, especially for smaller managers.What her plans are for the future and how she sees the managed futures industry going forward.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Kathryn’s book is: Trend Following with Managed Futures.Is this Time Different? Trend Following and Financial Crisis.Following the TrendOutlierDavid and GoliathLean InKathryn’s TED talk on Convergence and Divergence.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
11/6/2014 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 50 seconds
TTU41: Trend Following Expert Explains All ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 1of2
Our next guest is different than any guest we’ve had before, as she is not a fund manager but has spent much of her life’s work researching and writing about the topic of trend following. She is a true thought leader in the managed futures industry and you’ll learn a lot from the animated discussion we have regarding the history of trend following and how she co-authored her latest book on the subject.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About Kathryn’s upbringing in Nashville, Tennessee.About her time at MIT where she went for electrical engineering.How her internship at a bank in France got her on the path to work in the financial industry.About her teaching financial engineering with Andrew Lo.Through her teaching and research, she became interested in technical analysis and trend following.How Kathryn went to the Stockholm School of Economics.When she left academia and joined RPM in Sweden.How she met Alex Greyserman and how she came to write a book with him.The history of trend following as she lays it out in her book.How trend following at its core is quite simple.What Kathryn likes to do outside of work.Her work life balance and her life in Sweden.Her view on the building blocks of trend following.Her quest for acceptance of trend following in the academic community.Where the term Crisis Alpha came from and what it is.About Convergent and Divergent strategies.About the Adaptive Market Hypothesis that she writes about in the book.What the CTA Smile is and what it really means.What she would look for when building or critiquing a research team.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Kathryn’s book is: Trend Following with Managed Futures.Learn more about Andrew Lo and MIT.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
11/3/2014 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 28 seconds
TTU40: What To Do If You Are Making Too Much Money! ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 2of2
Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Managed Futures expert and President Mike Harris of Campbell & Company. In this episode we delve into the specifics of Campbell & Company’s trading programs, how models are added or removed, and the importance of risk management. This episode also explores the managed futures industry as a whole and is a must-hear for anyone looking to gain knowledge about this strategy.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About Campbell & Company’s trading program.How they create a trading strategy.Why they use a hypothesis driven system to add new models to their programs.About the peer review process they use before adding or subtracting models.When do you remove a model? How do you know when it isn’t working anymore?About position sizing and why its important.How they look at risk through something called Vertical Risk and Horizontal risk.Campbell’s systematic approach to risk management.How he deals with drawdowns.Why he worries about systemic risk and natural disasters.Why Mike thinks redundancies are so important.The risk of regulation.How these strategies tend to perform when interest rates go up.The trend of the managed futures industry and why it has been dominated by European firms in the past 10 years.What people need to become a successful manager: humility is “at the top of the list.”Books that Mike recommends.What he would do differently if he could talk to his younger self.The importance of managing work and life balance.What the future looks like for Campbell & Company.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about Baltimore and Johns Hopkins University.Hedge Fund Market Wizards by Jack SchwagerTechnical Analysis of the Futures Markets by John MurphyTrend Following with Managed FuturesFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/flavor" rel="noopener...
10/30/2014 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 39 seconds
TTU39: President of Famous CTA Firm Tells All ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 1of2
This episode goes in-depth into the history of one of the most well-known managed futures firms in the world, Campbell & Company. We explore the beginnings of the company, how they have dealt with challenges a long the way and how they have succeeded to overcome them, as well as the current state of the company and the systematic models their products are built on. Our guest is current President of the company, Mike Harris, and you’ll hear about how he entered the industry as well as his path to becoming Campbell’s President.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Mike explains what he does.How his grandfather gave him money to invest in his first stock as a child.How his interest in the financial markets started young and how he structured his whole education around working in this industry.About his first job out of college.About his time as a Futures Broker.How he joined Campbell & Company in 2000, starting at the European Trading desk.How he came to be President.The story of how Keith Campbell started the firm in 1972.The history of Campbell & Company.How they dealt with drawdowns in 1994 and ’95.Why Mike has always been an avid reader.How Campbell’s 2nd President, Bruce Cleland ran the business for 20 years and how I met him back in 1993.What the company’s product offering looks like today.How the company’s 130+ employees are organised.How they outsource things on the technology side of the business.What he looks for when adding staff to his research team.How Mike builds a strong company culture.How investors should make sense of the track record of Campbell & Co since they have such a long history.Changes they have made to the trading models after 2007 and 2008.The ways the company uses long term, medium term, and shorter term systems.Where the company wants to grow and how big it wants to get.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about a Carry Trades.Learn more about short-term mean reversion.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
10/27/2014 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 51 seconds
TTU38: The Real Secret Behind Trend Following & How It Works ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with AHL founder and Aspect Capital Director, we dive into the details of his firm’s strategies and models. We explore how the models evolve, how he deals with risk management, and his advice for would-be fund managers. Investors and managers alike will gain deep knowledge from this episode.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How their model changes are very small and gradual.What the Diversified Program of Aspect looks like today.How Martin weights the portfolio between financial markets and commodity markets.How his model allows them to grow the company.About foreign exchange markets and liquidity.The 2008 crisis and how it affected their models.The real secret behind trend following and how it works.How they are making the transition to a “box-to-box” execution approach.How Martin defines risk and risk management.About model risk.How their risk team operates.Why correlations are a crucial to look at.How drawdowns are different than open-ended risk and how to explain that to investors.Why succession planning is not an issue for the company right now.What his biggest challenge is.The evolution that is going on in the managed futures industry in general.How small firms are struggling but may see opportunities in the future.What Martin would ask David Harding if he were interviewing him.What investors forget or don’t know to ask.Martin’s advice for managers or would-be managers.A vacation the Martin took his family on, that turned traumatic for a moment and that British Airways learned a lot from.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Martin suggests books by Antti Ilmanen.Learn more about David Harding and Winton Capital Management.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank"...
10/9/2014 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 42 seconds
TTU37: How to Build a Multi-Billion$ Trend-Following Firm ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 1of2
In this episode, we get an exciting behind-the-scenes story of one of the most famous systematic trading firms of its time, AHL. Our guest is one of the firms founders and takes us from the company’s birth to its acquisition by Man Group. We also discuss how he started his next company, Aspect Capital, how he creates his trading models, and how to build and run a successful multi-billion trend-following firm. This episode is full of insights and stories that you won’t hear elsewhere.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About Quantitative Investment research.About Martin’s background in physics.Martin’s time at his first company, AHL and how it had a profound effect on the whole managed futures industry.How Martin met his future AHL co-founders at university.Why AHL was a happy accident.How he met his friend Michael Adam and went to work for his dad after studying in Oxford.Martin started working for Michael’s dad as well, investigate many trading models and distilling them into key concepts.In 1987 they founded AHL with David Harding after leaving Michael’s father’s business.They started with $100k of investor money that bridged their split from the family business.About MINT, a pioneering systematic CTA in the early 80s.How they tried to articulate their trading patterns in the form of a computer trading model.What the initial AHL model looked like back then.How they over optimized in the beginning and had to learn things as they went along.How AHL got involved with Man Group.The skills that each of the 3 Founders brought to the table.In 1989 Man Group took a stake in AHL.How the Man buy changed their business.What happened after Man’s IPO.How Michael, David, and Martin went their own ways after they left AHL.How Martin started Aspect Capital with Anthony Todd, Eugine Lambert and Michael Adam.Why he parted ways with his other AHL founders initially and did not start AHL 2.0.What he does when he is not working.Aspect was founded on bringing managed futures to the institutional side of things.What it looks like running 100-person+ organization.What he looks for when adding new researchers and staff to his team.The lessons he has learned and the mistakes he’s made in building a culture of an organization.About their track record and how it should be viewed.Martin’s persistence in using trend following models.How his models have changed and how he has dealt with risk management over the years.What it means to change his models from a binary implementation to an analog implementation.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about AHL.Find out more about the MAN group.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
10/6/2014 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 55 seconds
TTU36: A Look inside a Currency Trading Firm ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management – 2of2
In Part 2 of our conversation with the CEO of Insch Capital Management, we talk about how the firm’s trading models work and how they were built. We discuss how Insch deals with drawdowns, increased regulation, and marketing. This is a truly in-depth episode into the mind of a hedge fund Founder and the inner workings of an Alternative investment firm.Welcome to the second part of our conversation with Chris Cruden.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Indicators that are more robust than others.Chris’ views on stop losses.How his firm deals with risk and how he uses Index Risk.How correlations play a part in his models.About risk equivalency.how he deals with drawdowns.Why a sense of humor is important in this business, especially during drawdowns.How investors don’t share the same confidence in the model as managers and how managers can better share that confidence.How simple his system really is.Why you must have discipline. Many trend followers are making all-time highs but many people have announced the death of trend following time and time again.What the “black swan” event and the “gray swan” event would be for Chris’ business.The two kinds of research that his firm does.Why his team looks at emerging currencies in their research even though they do not trade them.What he is looking for in terms of red flags during his research that suggest models need to be tweaked.How he tries to stand out from the crowd in order to attract investors.Why he is based in Lugano, Switzerland.What Chris would ask David Harding if he was doing the interviewing instead of being interviewed.What investors forget to ask him.Why it’s a good idea to ask if you can try a dummy account with a new investment manager to see how it works.How he deals with the difficulties of regulation.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Market Wizards: Interviews with Top TradersTrend Following: How to Make Millions in Up or Down MarketsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a...
10/2/2014 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 30 seconds
TTU35: The Advantages of Being a Systematic Trader ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management – 1of2
Our next guest was a British Army Officer and moved to South Africa before finding a career in the financial markets. He is now the CEO of his Managed Futures firm and has worked with some of the industry’s most influential companies and people, including Dean Witter and AHL. The story of his career’s beginnings and the lessons he used to become a systematic trend follower are unique and insightful. You’re sure to learn a lot from this episode.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Chris came to work with Dean Witter, one of the leading players in the industry back in the 1980’s & 90’s.About his days working for AHL in the early 90’s.How his career started off as a British Army officer.His time in Africa after leaving the army – finding himself in Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe).About his first job at Syfrets Trust bank in South Africa as a Gold analyst.How he came to do business with Dean Witter Reynolds and after a few years why they hired him.After the 1988 crash he found himself back in London and joined AHL.In 1993 he went back to New York joined with Robert M Tamiso, a mentor to him.Why he looked for a market that was not overcrowded and easily spooked, which was the inter-bank foreign exchange market.What AHL was doing in the beginning of the company.Why he started trading currencies early on.How Bob Tamiso was successful and the way he carried himself that made him successful.Why Bob Tamiso’s best advice was to always “show up”.About Chris’ golf playing and his ties to Scotland.His routine at work and why being a systematic trader makes him boring and bad at marketing, but helps him sleep at night knowing they are going to “show up” the next day.About Chris’ goal with his work and why he is happy with the size of his firm and why growth is not the prime focus.How he has such low staff turnover and why he likes to work with young people who have never worked anywhere else in the financial world.What matters when discussing a firm’s track record and how his programs are setup.The building blocks of their trading program and how the money they’ve made has historically come mainly from interest rate differentials.What the environment has been like for a currency program in the last 5 years.Why he believes the current intervention by The Fed is not so substantially different that his model won’t be able to see good returns in the futureHow he designed his program and what its objective is.What currencies he trades and how he trades them.Why volatility has been so low but why he sees that it is coming back and why it’s a good thing for his models.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about Dean Witter.Get more information on AHL.For historical background, see this article on Rhodesia.Learn more about Lugano, the city where Insch is located.Follow Niels on Twitter, <a...
9/29/2014 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 4 seconds
TTU34: The Art of Risk Management ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 2of2
In the second part of our interview with hedge fund founder Luc Van Hof, we dive into the philosophy and creation behind his trading models. We also discuss why he is a risk averse person, what hobbies help him stay focused at work, and what investors and fund managers can do to grow their business and trade smarter.Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Luc Van Hof.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How to avoid model decay and how to avoid the risk when the model may stop working in the future.How to diversify your types of models – dynamic filtering that takes place. Automatic de-leveraging when a certain market goes down.How Luc chooses his models and why he does:Short term trend followingShort term mean reversionWhat concepts for his models repeat themselves over and over again, pattern recognition.About volatility risk premium strategies.How he tests his models that have so many moving parts in short timeframes.His views on position sizing.What investors should look at in terms of risk managementMaximum Exposure for a trade – determines the maximum risk that a trade can generate for the total of the portfolio.How Luc deals with drawdowns.Why he is a risk averse person.Why he is still researching other trading ideas when he thinks he’s found a way that mitigates risk effectively.How he gets his ideas from math puzzles, reading about geometry and logic.Why investors should look at the predictability of returns and how to convince investors what and how you are going to trade is something that is going to work.Why discipline is the main characteristic that people need to be a successful fund manager.The books that he recommends for managers starting out wanting to be successful.How his hobbies such as nature, reading, and music help to keep him balanced in a busy financial world.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Market WizardsThe PredictorsMean ReversionRisk PremiumFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/flavor" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
9/25/2014 • 1 hour, 22 minutes, 15 seconds
TTU33: Options Trading: A Dangerous Animal? ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 1of2
Our next guest worked for the European Commission before starting his own firm. In an unusual career twist, he sold his company to a larger firm only to buy it back from them a few years later and had to start from scratch. Learn about his aversion to risk, his short term trading strategies, and his interesting past as one of the fastest readers in the world.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About Luc’s time working for the treasuring of the European Commission starting in 1985.How he learned about Options trading before many people were doing.About his years working for Bankers Trust in London and Morgan Stanley as a trader and how those experiences influenced his career later.How he started Analytic Investment Management (AIM), doing options trading.How he acquired his first clients.Why he got started trading currencies.About the early days of trading and the physically demanding work before computers took over.How his attendance at conferences, getting invited to speak on panels, and other speaking engagement led to the sale of his company.About the selling of AIM to Trobico in 2006 and why trobico bought his firm.How he ended up buying his company back from Trobico in 2010 after management changes caused them to shut down everything in the alternative investment space.About the different products that Capital Hedge provides.How he had to start from scratch, getting all new investments after buying his firm back.Where he is now – advising $200 Million US dollars, mainly in his DPI program.How he is one of the fasted readers in the world, and how he learned to speed-read from a class he took in the Netherlands.How he convinces institutional investors that a 2-3 person company is enough to manage the investments they have, and how technology has changed the game from needing a staff of 25 to needing just 2.How small managers need to describe what they do, and why they might not want a multibillion-under-management hedge fund.How investors should look at a track record of a firm and why that doesn’t necessarily mean good returns in the future.Why investors should see the latest test of what the firm is currently running rather than worry too much about the historic model results.How Luc trades and develops his systems, and how he looks for patters in the market.How to avoid model decay and avoid the risk when the model will stop working in the future.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about the European Commission.More about Bankers Trust.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written <a...
9/22/2014 • 1 hour, 19 minutes, 17 seconds
TTU32: The Most Misunderstood Stats That You Can Use ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 2of2
In the second part of our conversation with Marc Malek, we explore the strategies that he uses to build his models and how he explains them in simple terms. We go in depth about drawdowns and what investors should know about them. We also discuss what keeps Marc inspired, what he does for fun, and how he couldn’t imagine having any other job.Welcome back to Part 2 of our conversation with Marc Malek.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:About the four strategies inside Conquest Capital’s Macro program.How the technological revolution has changed the market and trend following, now that everyone gets the same information at the same time.Marc’s approach to building trading models.Defining risk in terms of upside deviation vs. downside deviation in the portfolio.Why correlation is one of the most misunderstood stats that you can use.How Marc deals with drawdowns and why he thinks nothing new is happening now that did not happen before.His view on backtesting.The challenges hedge fund owners face in the current business climate and why Marc is lucky to have investors that have stuck by him.Why Marc is motivated to keep pushing through this period and why he loves what he does.The story of how Conquest Capital got its first investor, and how in the early days investors cared more about managers and interacting with them personally.Marc’s biggest failures, and how he overcame them.The hobbies Marc has and why he likes seemingly dangerous sports.Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about Backtesting.Learn about Downside Deviation.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Marc Malek on Linkedin.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
9/18/2014 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 31 seconds
TTU31: Why Investors Should Not be Worried ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 1of2
This guest had a different path that eventually led to owning a hedgefund in New York. Marc Malek got a grant from NASA to study how different armored tank positions would lead to winning results on the battlefield. Traveling to Wisconsin to begin his research, his advisor steered him to do a similar project on stocks, bonds, and equities instead. He went on to work for UBS and finally founded his own firm, Conquest Capital Group. His story will fascinate and inspire you.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The story of how Marc became interested in the financial markets after a university project, a bit unexpectedly.About Marc’s upbringing in Beirut, Lebanon.How his studies at Caltech in neural networks and decision support systems eventually led him to the stock market.About his grant from NASA to research the position of tanks.His job offer from Oracle that he turned down.About his first job out of university at Salomon Brothers and why he left after one year.How Marc got hired at UBS and moved to Europe and then Asia during his time with the company.Marc’s departure from UBS and how he started Conquest Capital Group.How trader’s thought processes are turned into trading models.Why models are not black boxes and why investors should not be worried.The history of trend following and the old systematic approach.How markets move for alpha and beta reasons.About “turtle strategies” vs “trend following 2.0”.How Marc’s strategies and models have evolved over time.About his product Conquest Macro and the two mandates that the product has.How his product makes the bulk of its return during periods of risk aversion and high volatility.How his firm developed a risk index in a time before anyone was doing them.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:See Episodes 13 and 14 for more discussion on “Turtle Strategies”.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please...
9/15/2014 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 10 seconds
TTU30: Don’t Tweak Your Models! ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 2of2
Welcome back to the second part of our discussion with Aref Karim. In this episode, Aref discusses his firm’s strategies and the broader philosophies that drives what he does. He also talks about market volatility, the need to innovate while keeping models intact, his perspective on drawdowns, and what investors should be asking their managers. You’ll learn something about the art galleries and music that fuels his inspiration, and what he thinks it takes to become a successful hedge fund manager.You will be amazed by the candid truthfulness of Aref at the end of the episode as he speaks about his personal life and the current state of his business. Thanks for listening to Part 2 of the conversation, I hope you enjoy it.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What strategies his firm uses regarding commodities and currencies.How Aref explains his investment strategy in a concise and understandable way.Why volatility is an important source of information when making investment decisions.How to make the best of the current market environment and innovate.Why his firm evolves their model on a macro level and does not change the model every time the markets change.How QCM manages risk.Aref’s perspective on drawdowns and how to make investors comfortable with drawdowns and see them as an opportunity.How investors should be evaluating the track records of managers given that some firms’ models have changed over time.How growth and technology have effected the relationship managers have with potential investors and why it is still best to meet the manager in person.When investors ask questions of potential managers, the economic alignment question often gets left out.What it takes to be a successful fund manager: treating it like a business even if you are investing for yourself.Aref’s personal appreciation for the arts, art galleries, opera, and jazz. How it inspires him.How Aref sees the current state of QCM and why he believes in its future.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about Long Volatility vs Short Volatility, mentioned as “Long Vol” by Aref in the episode.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions...
9/11/2014 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 38 seconds
TTU29: How the largest investor in Hedge Funds got Started ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 1of2
How do you transition from working alongside the capital management industry to starting your own hedge fund? Our next guest grew up in Bangladesh but fled to London during the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971. He worked as an accountant and then went on to join the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) where he pioneered the organization’s futures investment department. Learn about his personal setbacks and successes, his innovative investment strategies, and how he founded Quality Capital Management in the UK.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About Aref’s childhood in Bangladesh.How his father wanted all 10 of his children to attend university and instilled in them the belief system that made them successful.Why Aref decided to study English and Literature even though his background was in the sciences.The story of Aref’s escape to the United Kingdom because of war and social upheaval in Bangladesh.How he went from being an accountant in England to working for the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world, ADIA.Aref’s perspective on the history of the hedge fund industry and the alternative investment industry.About the beginnings of ADIA’s futures department that Aref helped to start.The early days of the futures industry and Aref’s perspective on trend-following.How he overcame personal setbacks when his wife unexpectedly passed away, leaving him with three young children.About Aref’s return to the UK and his decision to start his own CTA and start trading in futures.About the genesis of Quality Capital Management.How Aref’s investment strategy evolved and the specifics of his current trading strategy.How he measures the “Flow” of the market.Why his strategy looks at changes in volatility and doesn’t care whether it is a bond or an equity.How QCM went from using a few indicators to no indicators at all.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about Aref Karim on his Wikipedia page.Learn about the Bangladesh Liberation War that displaced Aref from his country of birth to the UK.Learn more about the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA).Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/flavor" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
9/8/2014 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 48 seconds
TTU28: How to Bridge the Gap Between Philosophy & Rules ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 2of2
Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Scott Foster, President and Founder of Dominion Capital Management.In this episode, we learn the philosophical rules that drive his firm, and how he bridges the gap between the philosophy behind his decisions and the models he creates. We discuss the increased governmental involvement in the markets and the adjustments that Scott has had to make to adapt to new signals. Finally, we learn the personal habits that help Scott succeed. Thank you for listening to Part 2 of our conversation with Scott Foster.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Scott does not worry about model decay due to the principals with which he runs his firm.How to bridge the gap between philosophy and rules.How he created the Sapphire program, his firm’s signature service, and what it took to create it.How increased government involvement in the markets has changed his system and made him adapt to new signals in the markets.Why and how political feedback and involvement are affecting the markets and short term trading.How his firm is able to so expertly predict to potential customers their drawdowns and how they contain them.That investors spend too much time dissecting the drawdowns and not enough time looking at why and how they made money.The principals of behavior finance and the underlying philosophical principals such as self attribution bias and loss aversion.How alone time and contemplation have led to 80% of Scott’s best trading ideas.The hardest part of being the President of a fund and why it is not the trading.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode: Learn more about illusory superiority, the bias that the Lake Wobegon effect is name after, or Lake Wobegon itself, a fictional town in Minnesota.Learn more about Mean Reversion, which Scott’s firm looks at closely in the models they use.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a...
9/4/2014 • 1 hour, 26 minutes, 6 seconds
TTU27: Magician-turned Trader: “Reality Doesn’t Matter” ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 1of2
Our next guest was a philosophy major and a magician before he ever considered trading in the stock market. In Part 1 of our talk, he describes how philosophy and psychology determine his firm’s decisions and the story of how he started trading in a small town in Pennsylvania.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:On the 20th Anniversary of Scott’s firm, he looks back on how it all started.Scott’s life as a magician and how the principals of magic influences his perspective on trading and the market.How he became a philosophy major and how he applies philosophy to trading and everything his firm does.How he started trading in the market, getting a group of his college friends to take out cash advances on their credit cards and investing it.The Austrian perspective on economics that his college was well known for.How he educated himself in futures trading and invested long before he ever met another trader.Scott’s initial lessons learned from trading in the stock market; how he lost almost all of his capital in one day and had the first sleepless night of his life.How he made the mistake of investing in coffee and cocoa in the late 1980s and what he learned from that experience.How he started his first firm in 1989.How Scott traded while living in rural Western Pennsylvania.How a philosophy major with no connections to the financial world used his network to find a mentor.The story of Scott becoming a principal at one of the biggest short-term CTAs in the world.The story of Dominion Capital Management, which he started in 1994 by moving to Chicago.Why he is based in Traverse City, Michigan.How his firm is a bit different and why they don’t have any mathematicians or scientists on their team.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about the Square of Opposition that Scott explains in the episode.In Scott’s first job at a firm, the company hired people belonging to Mensa.Learn about how trading was conducted and firms operated before the use of personal computers and the Internet. Scott’s firm had a VAX computer.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a...
9/1/2014 • 1 hour, 22 minutes, 39 seconds
TTU26: The Most Repeatable Trading Method Ever Invented ft. Scot Billington – 2of2
Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Scot Billington of Covenant Capital Management.In this episode, Scot delves into the practice of trend following and why it is a great model to follow. He also discusses tips for beginning traders and investors, and advice for those who wants to start a firm. Thank you for listening to Part 2 of our conversation with Scot Billington.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The story of Scot’s childhood obsession with mathematically based, but unknown future outcomes.The discipline required to follow a mathematical model.The advantages of trend-following and why the media reports that “Trend Following is Dead” every few years.Scot’s philosophy on position sizing.How every sector in the market is highly correlated.Getting comfortable with taking risks: they exist and it is impossible to avoid them.The Barbell strategy: have very little money at risk, but the money that is at risk is in the most aggressive things that it can be.The biggest mistake that allocators make.How Scot conducts research for Covenant Capital.Why he is based in Nashville and how he overcomes the challenge of asking investors to buy into the long time-frame.Finding your niche as a boutique firm.Advice for managers wanting to start firms today.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Scot mentions how the media often announces the death of trend following. Here’s an article on the subject from Futures Magazine.Learn about the Barbell Trading Strategy.See 10 Fallacies when Selecting CTAs.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and...
8/28/2014 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 51 seconds
TTU25: Why a Mechanical, Long-Term Trend Approach is Best ft. Scot Billington – 1of2
Our next guest takes a mechanical, long-term trend approach to trading to a new level, and you’ll find out why he thinks it is the better option in this episode. He started Covenant Capital with his business partner in 1999 and has grown it into a profitable boutique firm. But in early 2002 after they ended the previous year down 20%, they really had to grind it out and stick to their guns which ultimately paid off in a big way.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Scot started his firm, doing the testing by hand.The difference between a discretionary model and a mechanical model and why Scot chose a mechanical one.How he met his business partner Brince Wilford and started with 3 accounts in 1999.How narrative bias can affect a trader’s decisions.How the firm got through a year that ended with them down 20%.What made Scot believe in his model and stick to his guns.The offerings that the firm currently has, including the differences in the trading models.The pitfalls of investing in shorter term models and not allowing managers to see a full cycles with markets.Why most allocators and investors are chasing 24-month returns on stocks and why that may not be the right approach.About different types of CTA firms, including boutiques, battleships, emerging, and experimental.What to look for in a CTA.How to get investors to share the long-term horizon with his firm when certain markets do very well in the short term.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:An article on Covenant and Scot Billington in Futures Magazine.Check out Discretionary vs System Trading.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
8/25/2014 • 1 hour, 23 minutes, 13 seconds
TTU24: What it Takes to be a Great Hedge Fund Manager ft. Anders Lindell of IPM – 2of2
Welcome back to the second part of our interview.In this episode we dive into the negative effect of greed on the market. Anders Lindell again shows his depth of knowledge as he elaborates on the nature of irrationality though the ages and how our markets today, really are rather stretched. This is a powerful episode, I really do hope you will enjoy it.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the IPM model profited by choosing to position against the carry frenzy in Japanese Yen during late 2008Risk factor analysis when selecting model attributesWhat the more reliable indicator in the global economy isHow their trading model works on overall, daily basis“Stop-Loss” Positioning in the IPM strategyWhere IPM identifies value traps and optimizes their exposure to itThe average length of trades at IPMWhat drives the relationships that Anders explores to build models aroundIf Correlations structure matters when IPM decides on risk overlay to make market decisionsWhy timing can be the largest challenge for their strategyHow Anders defines risk and how IPM controls the model and expected riskThe biggest fear Anders have in regards to unexpected market effectsWhat is expected in regards to drawdowns in the IPM Global Macro StrategyHow to convey the needed confidence to investors during drawdownsRisk Management/Risk Control model rebuildingHow Anders Lindell identifies research processes which will over engineer and cause return issuesSuccession planning as Anders sees it for IPM – Perception and VisionThe challenges for IPM and how overcoming them has helped to make them strongerWhat Anders would suggest for investors to focus onWhat it takes to be a great hedge fund manager in today’s economy-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW"...
8/21/2014 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 38 seconds
TTU23: Former CEO Reveals How to Thrive in a Challenging Market ft. Anders Lindell of IPM – 1of2
Our next guest turned a challenging market into an opportunity to transform his strategy and build something substantial.Welcome back to another episode of Top Traders Unplugged. Today we have the former CEO, now Chairman of Informed Portfolio Management on to discuss the road to formation of his firm, their Systematic Global Macro strategy, their unique approach to investor interaction and much much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The relevance of controlling production at paper and pulp mills while Anders was a developing manHis history during his early days at JP bank as an analystThe impact of the shifts in the fixed income markets of the early 1990’s which inspired a new strategyThe strategic focus that was the starting point for the formation of IPMWho Anders learned from early on and who helped him cultivate a career in the hedge fund industryHow to find and retain talent and the entrepreneurial spirit drives in house management decisionsHow IPM as an organizations manages the in house operationsHow Anders hopes to see their potential realized in terms of double or tripling their AUM for future marketsWhat Anders looks for when spotting talent for new team membersIdeas for incentivizing team members to appreciate their careersThe long term view of IPM’s track record and how to evaluate itMore on the objective of the strategy of IPM and the environment in which it’s been designed to work wellWhy the opportunities and volatility in emerging market equity trades is decompressing globallyThe meaning of global macro and how they structured all the information into a systematic trading approachHow the IPM model differentiates it’s self from discretionary trading models and how they run themThe role of fundamental information in identifying market strategies-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a...
8/18/2014 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 38 seconds
TTU22: The Most Important Question Investors Should be Asking ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 2of2
Did you know that a meditation practice can help you be a better investor?In this episode we discuss our common lessons that we ask all Top Traders, but we dive deep into why Nigol thinks differently about CTA issues. Growing up in war-torn Lebanon shifts the filters he uses to see the markets. We all have filters but in this episode you will learn what perspective he takes on the markets that may, or may not, support his market philosophy.Welcome back to the second half of our interview with Nigol Koulajian.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How growing up in war torn Lebanon influences the way Nigol filters market decisionsThe challenging nature of a market injected with federal liquidityNigol’s strategies for selecting position sizingDrawdown expectations of Quest PartnersHow Quest works to maintain a balance in the working environment and how busy the team staysHow Nigol manages emotional turmoil of drawdowns and how he projects this calmness upon his investorsThe few things that Nigol predicts would shake their strategyHow to listen to clients and use their advice in a way that serves them, even if you don’t implement exactly what they’re sayingWhy mathematician optimization can adversely effect the strength of your CTA strategyHow Nigol expects to know if a model is working or notThe importance of using math as little as possible despite the systematic approach to tradingA fascinating perspective on why the CTA industry AUM has shifted to EuropeThe most important question investors should be asking: “How to price tail risk.”What it takes to build a firm and become the next QuestLearn all about Nigol’s daily meditation practice which he credits as his top personal attribute to becoming a great traderThe most challenging thing about being a CTA for Nigol (A: Fishing in a very small pond)Nigol’s biggest failure which occurred in 2009-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
8/14/2014 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 8 seconds
TTU21: Building a Computer That Makes Money? ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 1of2
Want to build a computer that makes money?Quest Partners LLC has a long, robust track record with their systematic trading approach.They utilize a different strategies from many of their peers and have diversified their product range to include equity programs both hedge and long only.At the core of it all is their philosophy on focusing on what investors need. They provide solutions for investors rather than a purist strategy.Leading the way is our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged, Nigol Koulajian.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:How growing up Armenian provides a filter for the way Nigol perceives the marketsHis experience at Anderson Consulting and how he ended up working with Solomon Brothers by chanceWhy Nigol spend time at Colombia Business School programming and building modelsWhat Nigol thinks of Value at RiskHow Nigol found himself as a risk arbitrage manager despite his passion for CTA strategiesHow Nigol navigated beneficial detours before finally partnering to co-found Enterprise Asset Management in 1994About the founding and growth of Quest Partners from inceptions in 2001 to +760$ million in 2014The dangers of an increased correlation between alternative strategies designed to protect against trouble in traditional investment and the traditional asset classes themselvesLearn about self reinforcing feedback loop and how managers of growing AUM are forced to allocate to factors that are doing well (but perhaps doing well by chance)About the tight, automated business infrastructure of Quest Financial PartnersAbout the shift in volatility expansion and how to measure itResources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Investors Business Daily – The finance newspaper which inspired Nigol in the early days3 Research Pieces from Quest that specifically examine factor drifts that could effect the returns of CTAsLearn about Sharpe RatioA specific trading model that trades the S&P and 30Y Bonds if it’s down 3 days in a row, with a stop-loss and profit target (Full testing and code in the link).BTOP50 – the index that seeks to replicate the overall composition of the managed futures industry with regard to trading style and overall market exposureLearn about David Harding, one of the largest alternative investment managers in the worldRead this interesting article about transcendental meditation and NigolNigol’s Foundation to promote studies on eastern religious philosophies and YogaFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, <a...
8/11/2014 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 28 seconds
TTU20: How to Identify Trades No One Else is Looking For ft. Roman Lutz of Future Value Capital – 2of2
How would it feel to identify trades no one else you know is looking for?Our guest is back and this interview is all about carry trades, mean reverting environments, merger arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, tail hedges and how to become the best trader possible. It’s quite likely there is something in this interview which will help propel you forward as a hedge fund manager or in your research of managers.Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Chief Excutive Officer of Future Value Capital, Roman Lutz.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Simple Models used by Future Value Capital to implement trend followingHow they utilize carry tradesThe third area of models: Tail HedgesLearn about how to carry potentially large value variance swaps while keeping the premium for holding them downWhere the variance exchange swaps derive from whether from OTC with counterparts or constructed using exchange listed productsLearn about Credit Support Annex (CSA)Risk management procedures at Future Value CapitalThe purpose for tactical asset allocation meetings and the decisions that are madeThe common performance drivers and if there is a dominant part of the portfolio that is responsible for the performanceHow Roman translates the complex trading strategy of Future Value Capital to investorsHow Future Value Capital implements trades and why they consider it a key strength of their programHow much AUM would be optimal running the program or if the potential is unlimitedHow to create certainty around the risk Future Value Capital holds and how they define that riskWhat Roman Lutz considers to be one of the riskiest thing that could happen in the financial systemWhat to expect in terms of returns and drawdown when investing in Future Value CapitalHow to realize when a model is no longer workingPersonal habits that contribute to Roman’s success in managing a hedge fund-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu"...
8/7/2014 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 20 seconds
TTU19: How to Take the Emotions out of Investment Decisions ft. Roman Lutz of Future Value Capital – 1of2
Can you implement well established hedge fund strategies in a systematic way?Future Value Capital has been researching this for years, before they started trading. They are unique because of how they simplify and automate complex Risk Premia.But we aren’t the best at explaining their systems. Roman Lutz, the Chief Financial Officer of Future Value Capital will explain it all in this interview.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About Merger Arbitrage and How investors can ProfitWhat criteria they look for in mergers, such as Market Cap, Deal Size, Liquidity etc.What currency markets Future Value Capital entersThe app. 15 strategies they use and how many sub strategies they may haveThe origin stories of where the Future Value Capital strategy derived from.Understanding the typical way to build a derivative businessWhy the average correlation of a hedge fund with equities has shifted from 0.6 to 0.9 from the 1990’s to today.How Scottish Whiskey tasting can kickstart long term business relationshipsAddressing the “Black Box” label that many systematic programs hasWhat environment Future Value Capital’s systems are best suited to operate withinThe business structure of Future Venture Capital and the alliance with Trium CapitalAbout the post Madoff and additional regulatory environment investors are operating inHow Roman Lutz developed the shared business management and split the overhead cost with other emerging fund managersThe negative side effects of sharing hedge fund management business practices with other firmsA ballpark figure for the cost of being part of the Trium Manager Alliance and get the services required to be able to operate as a regulated and well run firmHow Roman and partners develop new plans in regards to where the economy is going and how to develop plans to manage funds going forwardHow merger arbitrage and volatility arbitrage connect implied and realized volatilityHow to buy realized volatilityWhen to deploy and when not to deploy the realized volatility trades (when volatility starts to trend)Main categories from a strategy point of view – Trend Following for exampleHow Future Value Capital uses trend following-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Listen to the past episode with Marty Bergen from Dunn Capital mentioned in regards to the higher correlation between traditional alternative investment space and the traditional assets.Lars Jaeger owner of Alternative Beta Partners – Wrote extensively about the lack of alpha to people hunting it. 4x more assets are looking for alpha than alpha is available in the market.Listen to our previous guest Karsten Schroeder from Amplitude Capital on the value of systematic trading vs. discretionaryLearn more about the determining implied market volatility with VIXFollow Niels on Twitter, <a...
8/4/2014 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 56 seconds
TTU18: Estimating & Predicting Black Swans ft. Peter Kambolin of Systematic Alpha Management – 2of2
Imagine if your assets under management went from $721 million to $50 million….Would you have the courage to stick with your system?Our next guest was able to weather that storm and come out even stronger. In fact, he gives credit to the fall in assets because it was an important component to improving their processes and efficiency today.We’re excite to share with you, the second part of my interview with CEO of Systematic Alpha Management, Peter Kambolin.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How many markets Peter trades and the number of different spreadsThe three points during a day in which volatility is elevatedWhat triggers an exit from a trade when profit levels haven’t been reachedHow Systematic Alpha Management makes decisions relating to sizing market positionsThe number of daily trades Systematic Alpha implementsHow much of the P/L comes from the hedge component of spread decisionsWhat kind of Risk Budgets that Systematic Alpha Management runsHow to drawdown profile has changed over the last few yearsEstimating and predicting Black Swan eventsHow Peter personally balances the challenging feelings of managing a portfolio in drawdownExploring mean reversion and how the hedge ratios change dailyOn the value of being located in the heart of New YorkThe biggest challenge for Peter in running Systematic Alpha ManagementPeter’s opinion on why success in the CTA industry has shifted from the United States of America to EuropeWhy individuality is critical in success in the CTA industryPeter Kambilin’s biggest failure and what he learned from itSome fun facts about Peter that you probably would never have guessed-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can...
7/31/2014 • 1 hour, 51 seconds
TTU17: Start Your Own Firm at 21 Years of Age? Russian CEO Tells All ft. Peter Kambolin of Systematic Alpha Management – 1of2
Peter Kambolin is the common sense CEO behind Systematic Alpha Management, an Award Winning CTA Firm which has come through the tremendous market forces of the past 10 years. Their staying power is a testament to their success as conscious, ruled based traders.This episode is about his hero’s journey from immigrant origins in Moscow to founding a lasting, top financial service company headquartered in New York City.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About the effect of the 2004 internet bubble and how Systematic Alpha created a “market neutral” CTA strategy in responseWhat it’s like to win global CTA awards yet still have to hunt new business due to capital flows towards large investment firmsPeter’s story of moving from Moscow to New York and how he entered the finance industryThe surprising story of how Peter was inspired to start his own firm at 21 years of ageHow Peter and Alexi work together to maximize each others strengths, and control for each-other’s weaknessesAbout the transition from long term to short term CTA strategiesWhy living in New York yet playing in Miami helps stoke Peter’s creativityThe story of the dramatic period of March-August 2011 in which they experienced a drawdown that let to a drop in AuM from 721 million to 50 million due to investor redemptions.The effects of the coordination of global economic decisions by government on volatility and it’s effect on the overall environment for Systematic Alpha Management’s CTA programs.Why Peter considers Systematic Alpha to be a stronger firm after the steep drop in AUM they experienced in 2011.Where Systematic Alpha’s value proposition is and the importance of a CTA position in diversificationHow to get out of losing trades when liquidity is a problem-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
7/28/2014 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 7 seconds
TTU16: You Can’t Learn This In A Book! ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 2of2
Welcome back to Top Traders Unplugged. On this episode Karsten and I discuss the systems and implementation that has led Amplitude to such remarkable success. As the interview comes to a close, we learn about Karsten’s philosophy of success and entrepreneurship. Despite being based outside the global financial hubs (i.e. New York, Chicago, London) Amplitude has experienced world class results. He provides a deep philosophy on achieving success in the CTA industry.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Allocation of capital from a stop-loss point of view when doing short term tradingAmplitude Capital’s systems for trade implementationWhy high frequency trading is a very different strategy from that of Amplitude Capital’sRisk management strategies and the framework for embedding these principles into the Amplitude Capital operationsExploring the meaning of market correlation in short term CTA strategiesKarsten Schroeder’s philosophy on drawdownsHow managers can do a better job of explaining drawdownsThe role of teamwork and processes in the research cycleThe internal processes for validating implementation of strategies at Amplitude CaptialKarsten Schroeder’s explanation for why Amplitude has experienced such successDo financial leaders need to live in financial hubs? How living outside of the financial hubs has impacted Amplitude CapitalThe difference between European CTA managers and US counterparts. Why has the market dominance shifted?The philosophy of failure that empowers Karsten Schroeder’s entrepreneurial journeyWhat continues to inspire Karsten to keep running the businessThe question investors are not asking that they should be:-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so...
7/24/2014 • 44 minutes, 47 seconds
TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2
TTU14: “You’re going to make a lot of money doing this…” ft. Jerry Parker – 2of2
Today we will continue our conversation with Jerry Parker the founder of Chesapeake Capital and widely known as the most successful Turtle ever.After wrapping up his position with Richard J. Dennis as a famous “Turtle,” he went on to start his own asset management firm, Chesapeake Capital Corporation.In this episode we discuss the evolving CTA industry and the story of Chesapeake. It’s a powerful story from one of the most successful people in the industry. We really hope you enjoy it. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the research and complexity of systems has a backwards effect to making moneyChallenges with entering stock markets with CTA strategiesWhy counting the trades and analyzing sample size is what most investors forget to ask when seeking fund managersWhere the CTA managers have failed investorsHow Jerry Parker handles emotions during drawdownsWhy markets have changed so that longer term focus has proven more successfulLearn about the philosophy of “The Markets are the Heroes”Important lessons from a long, successful career in the CTA industryWhat is it that keeps investors from Turtle CTAs and choose larger financial organizationsWhy we see a skewed distribution towards profitability of long side trades and short side tradesThe key legacy traits left behind by the Turtles and if the experiment could be replicated nowWhy Jerry Parker’s contribution to the CTA space will be that he sticks with the plan and be the last one going down with the trend following shipLessons for upcoming CTA managers from Jerry ParkerDebunking trading cliches like, “you never go broke taking a profit” and “exits are more important than entries”Personal habits that have contributed to Jerry Parker’s successHow Jerry Parker would start if he were to start all over again-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Ray Dalio – Bridgewater CapitalLearn about Jerry Parker’s Acting “Career” on his IMDB pageFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a...
7/16/2014 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 59 seconds
TTU13: Lessons From the Most Successful Turtle of All-Time ft. Jerry Parker – 1of2
Imagine you found an advertisement in the newspaper offering a position with a one sentence application process.Would you take it?What if it was for a position where you would learn a proprietary trading system in which you would trade solely for owner of the firm?What if that man was Richard Dennis?Our next guest took that position in 1983 and it changed his life forever, for the better. He found himself with what was to become a famous title, a Turtle. He was given the opportunity to manage a million dollar account with specific rules to follow. Rules that he would learn to love and perfect.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About the Turtles and how the unique experiment grew into the Managed Futures/CTA IndustryHow Wall Street Leaks inspired Jerry into understanding the industryHow Jerry encountered trend following for the first timeThe One Sentence culture in Richard J. Dennis’s officeHow to excel at unprecedented tests from leading tradersWhat it was like moving to Chicago to train as a TurtleWhat the Turtle training was like and the mindset provided in the trainingThe most challenging thing about Trend Following when Jerry started with Richard DennisAbout the transition from Turtle Trading to starting his own organization, Chesapeake Capital in 1998The evolution of Chesapeake’s strategy from day one after leaving Richard Dennis’s programThe early focus on diversification and adding new marketsIssues with trying to improve the original Richard DennisThe shift in investor expectations with the growth of institutional investment organizations while operating on of the largest CTA firms in the industryWhy it’s best to take an optimal loss rather than a small lossOn the meaningfulness of track records and what else investors should be encouraged to explore when choosing an investment management decision-----The advertisement Jerry responded to in 1983:Richard J. Dennis and CD commodities is accepting applications for the position of Commodity Future Trader to expand his established group of traders. Mr. Dennis and his associate will train a small group of applicants in his proprietary trading concepts. Successful candidates will then trade solely for Mr. Dennis. They will not be allowed to trade futures for themselves or others. Traders will be paid a percentage of their trading profits and will be allowed a small draw. Prior experience will be considered, but is not necessary. Applicants should send a brief resume with one sentence giving their reason for applying.Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:The Barefoot Trader (Article about Richard Dennis in Wall Street Journal)Learn more about Richard J. Dennis the founder of the Turtle programFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s...
7/13/2014 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 22 seconds
TTU12: The Philosophy, Habits and Personal Traits Required to Excel in the Hedge Fund Industry ft. Mathias Bucher of AllMountainCapital – 2of2
Welcome back to Top Traders Unplugged. In this episode we continue our conversation with Dr. Mathias Bucher the Co-Founder of AllMountainCapital.In this episode we go deep in the philosophy, habits and personal traits required to excel in the hedge fund industry.It’s a pleasure to have you here and we hope you enjoy the episode.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:About Stop Loss, Risk Management and overall Exit StrategiesHow the current drawdown is effecting current testing and research at AllMountainCapitalHow Mathias takes the stress of drawdowns and turns it into creative powerThe research cycles in the program and the company as a whole at AllMountainAn example of a research idea developed and how it was implementedCurrent research interests in business development and market positioning as a CTAWhy Dr. Mathias Bucher and Dr. Tilman Keese base their business in Wollerau rather than a major financial hubThe threats and challenges involved in growing a young CTA firmDr. Mathias Bucher’s perception on why the CTA industry excellence seems to be shifting to EuropeLearn about the concept of the Industrialization of the Global Financial SystemThe human traits needed to strive in the CTA industryResources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Larry Hite and ISAMWatch another interview with Dr. Mathias Bucher on Opalesque TVFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
7/10/2014 • 46 minutes, 56 seconds
TTU11: Lessons From a Highly Educated Founder & Fund Manager ft. Mathias Bucher of AllMountainCapital – 1of2
Our next show provides you with the opportunity to learn from a highly educated founder and fund manager.He Studied Economics at the Luzon Universidad de Carlos III de Madrid. He went on to earn a PhD in Quantitative Finance in Evolutionary Finance at University of Zurich. Upon graduating he agreed to a research position with Zurich Capital Bank.Horizon21 made an offer to have Mathias and his business partner Dr. Tilman Keese build a systematic trading program. In 2010 they left Horizon21 to go out as entrepreneurs with AllMountainCapital.Please give a warm welcome to, Dr. Mathias Bucher.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:The story of founding AllMountainCapital and how much AUM they currently manageHow they outsource all non-core aspects of the business so they can focus on Research, Trading & Client servicesOn the changes in the CTA industry from 2007 to the presentWhy central bank actions are correlated with a drop in volatility since 2009The nature of the AllMountain trading model and how it has coped during challenging timesAbout the Modules that make up the AllMountain trading programSectors and markets that AllMountain tradeHow their different system works and why they use it the way they doHow they quantify trend strength in a marketResources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Larry Hite and ISAMWatch another interview with Dr. Mathias Bucher on Opalesque TVFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
7/6/2014 • 46 minutes, 6 seconds
TTU10: The Fairest Fee Structure in the Industry ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital Management – 2of2
TTU09: 40+ Years of Trading & Still Making NEW Highs ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital Management – 1of2
Our next guest is a partner in a firm that has enjoyed 40+ years of trading success with a 35+ year continues track record of their WMA program.The track record of the organization, DUNN Capital Management, is world-class. The legendary Bill Dunn offered partnership to our next guest and he replied, “I’m happy with where I am.” Bill’s response will make you laugh.Please enjoy my conversation with, Marty Bergin.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:The Story of DUNN Capital and the Evolution of the firmHow Marty began working with the firm and how he became a partnerThe company culture of DUNN Capital and why it’s so important to their successAn overview of the DUNN WMA programHow the Value At Risk (VAR) approach separates DUNN Capital from other CTAsWhy DUNN Capital manages all tasks in-houseAbout the 40 year+ track record of DUNN CapitalThe big research upgrades taking place in 2006About the change to using two separate "Trend Following Models"About the adaptive risk profile (ARP)DUNN’s approach to diversification across sectors (for example; 23% in agriculture and 13% currency allocation)Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about DUNN Capital’s methodologies and awards.Q&A with Bill DunnFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Learn more about DUNN CapitalIT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
6/29/2014 • 39 minutes, 44 seconds
TTU08: Key Traits to Success in the CTA Industry ft. Martin Estlander of Estlander & Partners – 2of2
Today we rejoin the conversation with Martin Estlander the Founder and CEO of Estlander & Partners. If you missed the first part, feel free to listen to it here.In this episode we explore the evolution of the CTA industry, the skills required to run a successful business and finally the fun, less known facts of Martin’s life outside of trading.Welcome to the second part of our conversations with Martin Estlander.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The best rule of thumb to visualize risk in a traditional CTA portfolioWhat Martin has learned from being in drawdowns and the difference between drawdowns before and after 2009The effect of volatility in the markets and how this impact CTA performanceHow Martin Estlander manages the emotional roller coasterResearch processes and research cycles at Estlander & PartnersHow to identify and address systems that were working but now aren’tThe biggest challenge for Estlander & Partners going forwardWhat are investors not asking that they should be asking when choosing a CTAWhere the misunderstandings can happen for investors when trying to understand the CTA industryHow to become better at communicating with investorsMartin’s key traits to success in the CTA industryPersonal habits that have contributed to the success of Martin EstlanderHow Martin manages failures and improves from themThe things Martin would do differently if he started over today-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about Commodities Corporation, the company behind some of the all-time great tradersFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a...
6/26/2014 • 49 minutes, 21 seconds
TTU07: Inside Scandinavia’s Longest Running CTA Firm ft. Martin Estlander of Estlander & Partners – 1of2
Estlander & Partners – The Oldest CTA firm in Scandinavia and one of the Longest Running CTA firms in the World. Thank you for listening to my conversation with its founder Martin Estlander. In This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Martin got involved in the CTA IndustryThe Evolution of Estlander & Partners and Where They are TodayFounding of an options trading business in Frankfurt in 1991About the inspiring time in which he was part of the Commodities Corp. team until 1998 when Goldman Sachs came in and bought CCAbout Jan Haraldsson’s Alpha Trend Program and how they recently opened the Program for external investorsThe recreational activities that support Martin’s trading philosophy. Skiing, Tennis, Sailing and MeditationAn overview of the Main Programs Estlander & Partners run today – Alpha Trend, Freedom, Global Markets & PrestoThe business organization of a modern day CTA firm – What is “in-house” and what is outsourcedHow volatility is perceived in the Estlander & Partners portfolioThe structure of the Alpha Trend Program and why it is designed to trade 74 different instruments and how they mix togetherHow Alpha Trend’s pattern recognition differs from the traditional moving average crossover or price breakoutWhether Alpha Trend is Intra-day, End-of-Day… or bothWhat Alpha Trends’ models are designed to captureHow Alpha Trend manages stop loss and stop profits when entering a new marketParticularly important key performance drivers of Alpha TrendThe human intervention required to run the Alpha Trend modelHow Martin Estlander defines riskAchilles Risk and how Alpha Trend manages for itResources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
Learn about Commodities Corporation, the company behind some of the all-time great tradersFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Estlander & Partners Linkedin.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"
6/22/2014 • 49 minutes, 38 seconds
TTU06: Why Trend Following Systems Make Money Over Time ft. Tushar Chande – 2of2
We’re back with the second part of our conversation with the Head of Research at Rho Asset Management. In this episode we discuss the details of Managing Equity Curves, Trade Length in CTA systems and how Rho achieves to get the optimal position size when entering new trades.Thank you for visiting, now let’s continue the interview with Tushar Chande.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Rho creates for algorithms to decide the size of a new positionThe difference between the models in terms of trade lengthThe trade frequency Rho Asset ManagementAbout the design philosophy in creating the profile of its Altius ProgramDiscussing the research cycle and the research reviewsMajor findings that led to the creation of the Altius ProgramWhy trend following systems make money over timeHow the CTA strategies will overcome challenges in the futureThe main thing investors should take away as a benefit of investing with CTAsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
6/12/2014 • 40 minutes, 55 seconds
TTU05: What You Must Do To Survive In the CTA Business ft. Tushar Chande – 1of2
TTU04: What it Takes to Become a Great Trader ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 2of2
In this episode we continue our conversation with the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management and discuss the aspects of what makes his rule based asset management style so successful.Enjoy the second part of my conversation with, Mike Dever.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Continuing the Conversation around why Trend Following can be more difficultDescribing Disparate Return DriversHow Brandywine Assets Management actually implements the decisions of their trading modelWhy Position Sizing and Risk Management Principles are EverythingHow position sizes are managed across various Return DriversWhy Sharpe Ratio is a meaningless measure on it’s own. It doesn’t give you any idea on predictability of returns.The professional traders approach to the emotional challenges of drawdown.Managing regulation challengesThe environment of marketing trend following strategies to investorsWhat it takes to become a great trader todayWho Mike started out aspiring to be likeIf Mike has any personal habits that contribute to his success-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Jackass Investing by Mike DeverLearn about Dick Donchian the Grandfather of Trend FollowingLearn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood FoundationLearn about John W. HenryFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
6/5/2014 • 44 minutes, 10 seconds
TTU03 How To Get Predictable Returns ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 1of2
On today’s show I am talking to Mike Dever, the Founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management. Mike is a Divergent Thinking Systematic Investment Manager and Author of the best selling book “Jackass Investing”. Mike has been trading for almost 4 decades and shares a wealth of insight to how he has stayed successful and how his trading approach and research has stayed current in an ever changing financial landscape.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The Evolution of Mike’s TradingHow Mike almost got in to business with Richard DonchianHow they developed a systematic trading model in the 1980sHow Mike met and invested with Paul Tudor Jones, John W. Henry and was the first outside investor in TranstrendHow Mike went from being a discretionary trader to become fully systematic when launching the Benchmark Program, and WhyAbout the experience of running the Brandywine Benchmark Program in in the ‘90sHow Mike discovered the importance of Portfolio Allocation in the 1980sThe Story of Developing the Predictive Diversification Portfolio Allocation ModelThe Entrepreneurial Storm that Kept Mike away from Trading and Brandywine for YearsThe story of developing the Brandywine Symphony ProgramHow many people it takes to run a system with more than 1,000 strategy/market combinationsExploring the track record of Brandywine Symphony ProgramWhy one should avoid making decisions based on single return drivers5 Themes in Brandywine’s Asset Allocation Strategy: Fundamental, Sentiment, Event, Arbitrage and Alpha HedgeHow Marginal Cost of Production Works as a Return DriverAre the strategies from the 1980’s just as effective today?What is directional arbitrage?-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Jackass Investing by Mike DeverLearn about Richard Donchian the Grandfather of Trend FollowingLearn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood FoundationLearn about John W. HenryFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a...
6/2/2014 • 58 minutes, 44 seconds
TTU02: Why The Game of Picking Sectors is a Fool’s Errand ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 2of2
TTU01: Are Research Ideas Overrated? ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 1of2
Sunrise Capital was the first CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) ever.The company has evolved considerably since its inception in the 1970s.Today on the show, Jason Gerlach, the Chief Executive Officer at Sunrise Capital joins us to discuss the history of the company and about the evolution of their trading strategy over nearly 4 decades. Sunrise has achieved astounding results over the lifetime of the company and Jason provides unique insights to the inner workings of Sunrise.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder ToolIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The story of Sunrise Capitals founding in the early 1970sRick Slaughter (Sunrise’s Chief Researcher) founded Commodity Monitors – the First Hedge Fund/CTA firm ever launchedJack Forest (Sunrise Commodities) and Gary Davis (Cresta Commodities) – The doctors trading outside the hospitalHow the three pioneers of the CTA/Commodity Trading Industry came together to form Sunrise Capital Partners in the mid 90’sHow Jason was brought on into the firm and developed a succession plan for the businessThe unexpected story of how Jason “the Attorney” turned into Jason “the Systematic Trading Guy”What Sunrise Capital Partners offer today?How does one structure a CTA firm like Sunrise, what functions and how do you manage them?The role of outsourcing in the day-to-day operations of Sunrise Capital PartnersWhat Sunrise discovered in the early 00’s which indicated to them a decay in long-term trend following and how they responded-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Download the article Niels mentioned: Fallacies to Avoid When Selecting a CTAFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW"...
