Leveraging Trepp’s market expertise and proprietary data sets, The TreppWire Podcast enables listeners to stay up-to-date on all things commercial real estate, structured finance and banking. Featuring Trepp subject matter experts and guests from across the industry, the weekly podcast explores how recent events have impacted both the markets and the daily lives of market participants. Questions or comments? Please contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
241. Commercial REality Check: What Fed Pivot? & More with Danielle DiMartino Booth and Dan McNamara
In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by two market experts, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, and Dan McNamara, Founder & CIO of Polpo Capital. After a week full of headlines, we discuss the 'cold water' that seems to have been thrown on the recent resilience and soft-landing narrative. Join us as we talk layoffs and what the jobs numbers really mean, CMBS issuance, increasing recession fears, maturity walls, and faltering CRE fundamentals. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Breaking down the week's news (0:47)
- Inflation numbers and hotels; layoffs and jobs (7:02)
- Office impairment 2.0 (10:07)
- CMBS rally? (18:40)
- Corporate debt maturities (23:00)
- Hotel maturities (29:56)
- Quantitative tightening and liquidity risks (33:35)
- Where to put capital to work? (36:54)
- Dallas office vacancies (37:53)
- "Silver lining" for 2024 (44:53)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
2/2/2024 • 49 minutes, 42 seconds
240. Immaculate Disinflation?; Retail & Hotel Sales; Office Operating Expenses
In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we review the latest economic data points and whether what we're seeing is contributing to the "immaculate disinflation" narrative. In CRE, we break down multifamily stories, transactions across the country for retail and hotel properties, and share office stories that touch CMBS. We also dig in to our office operating expense report. Tune in.
Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- Retail sales (8:51)
- Multifamily stories (15:24)
- Office property expenses (24:00)
- Office headlines (27:55)
- Lodging transactions (41:48)
- Shoutouts (47:06)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/26/2024 • 53 minutes, 55 seconds
239. Mixed-Bag Update: Strong Retail Sales, Turbulent Bank Earnings, Loans in Special Servicing
This week, we saw positive retail sales numbers and jobless claims at the lowest level in over a year, but we also saw bank earnings decline. In this episode, we dive into the mixed-bag of macroeconomic news and data, and what it means for CRE. We share multifamily transactions across the country, news about office loans heading to special servicing, and a few updates on retail. Tune in.
Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- Bank earnings (11:58)
- Multifamily transactions (15:12)
- Office valuations, moves to special servicing (21:34)
- Retail news (37:16)
- Shoutouts (40:04)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/18/2024 • 46 minutes, 30 seconds
238. CRE Temperature Check at CREFC Miami: Resilience in a Wary Market
In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we reflect on the CREFC Miami 2024 conference, and the parallels in terms of bullishness on the dovish Fed pivot. While there is a generally positive overtone as we head into 2024, there are underlying concerns that have yet to be addressed. We also dive into multifamily sales, office news, and a few stories for the retail and lodging segments. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- CREFC conference sentiment (2:48)
- Multifamily sales and news (10:26)
- Office stories (21:35)
- Hotel discount sale (31:27)
- Retail headlines (35:32)
- Shoutouts (38:15)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/12/2024 • 43 minutes, 12 seconds
237. Structural Changes in CRE Debt Markets, Ares' Bryan Donohoe Helps Us Sort it Out
In a special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Bryan Donohoe, Partner and Co-head of Ares US Real Estate. Bryan breaks down the world of debt markets, lending, and originations. We break down past market disruptions, CRE fundamentals, and the structural changes in the CRE debt markets.
*This episode was recorded prior to the December 2023 Fed meeting.
Episode Notes:
- Background (1:00)
- Where are the debt markets today? (6:32)
- Is there optimism for CRE? (10:36)
- Geographies and property types positioned for success (12:01)
- Appetite for office? (16:06)
- Market outlook (20:15)
- What does Ares do best? (30:49)
- The onset of a new credit cycle (31:30)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/9/2024 • 33 minutes, 10 seconds
236. New Year Normalization: December Delinquencies, Multifamily 101, Retail Resilience
In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss whether the decline in stocks and increase in bond yields was a sign of negativity or just a normalization in the market. We have a special multifamily 101 segment where we break down going in cap rates, not all income is "good income" and more. We also discuss our latest CMBS delinquency data and some headlines for retail, office, multifamily and hotels. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Spinoso Real Estate Group: https://spinosoreg.com/mall-investment-opportunity-and-operating-platform/?utm_source=TreppWire&utm_medium=TreppWire+Digital+Content&utm_campaign=TreppWire+Dec+Jan+2023+2024+Sponsorship
Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- Upcoming jobs report: goldilocks? (6:45)
- Apartment rent relief (9:40)
- CMBS delinquency rates (12:11)
- Multifamily 101 (15:02)
- Multifamily news (25:24)
- Office trading alerts (28:31)
- Hotel headline (32:30)
- Retail news (33:41)
-Shoutouts (35:52)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/5/2024 • 41 minutes, 52 seconds
235. Taking Stock of 2023: A Look Back & Ahead for CRE Finance
As the holiday season creates an expected slowdown for the markets, now is the time to take stock of 2023 and take a stab at what we can expect for 2024. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we reflect on the year for commercial real estate, sharing thoughts and predictions for lending, issuance, interest rates, and distress. We also save room for some office, retail, and multifamily stories. Happy New Year to all our listeners! Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Spinoso Real Estate Group: https://spinosoreg.com/mall-investment-opportunity-and-operating-platform/?utm_source=TreppWire&utm_medium=TreppWire+Digital+Content&utm_campaign=TreppWire+Dec+Jan+2023+2024+Sponsorship
Episode Notes:
- A review of 2023: by the numbers (0:49)
- Predictions for 2024: interest rates, issuance, spreads (16:29)
- Office mixed greens (24:55)
- Office green shoots: the year of the sublease? (30:45)
- Retail headlines (39:58)
- Multifamily news (45:02)
- Shoutouts (50:44)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/29/2023 • 52 minutes, 53 seconds
234. Holiday Blues No More? Falling Rates Shine Light at End of 2023 Tunnel for CRE
In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we have a surprisingly busy episode for the holiday season, with several stories to share across the major CRE property types. It was another positive week for investors, and we break down what falling rates and contracting risk premiums mean for the market. We also share the latest data for commercial mortgage maturities. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Spinoso Real Estate Group: https://spinosoreg.com/mall-investment-opportunity-and-operating-platform/?utm_source=TreppWire&utm_medium=TreppWire+Digital+Content&utm_campaign=TreppWire+Dec+Jan+2023+2024+Sponsorship
Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- Office news (13:00)
- Hotel stories (24:30)
- Retail headlines (39:38)
- Multifamily (
- Industrial
- Shoutouts (
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/20/2023 • 55 minutes, 14 seconds
233. Rates Plummet After Fed Announcement: Is it Enough to Kickstart the CRE Market? Our Hot Takes
In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we digest the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, along with the declaration that there will be three rate cuts in 2024. We share our initial reactions, the 'nirvana day' market reaction and our hot takes on what it means for CRE, CMBS issuance, and bank lending. We also share some major office and retail headlines, showing it isn’t all roses in the CRE market. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Spinoso Real Estate Group: https://spinosoreg.com/mall-investment-opportunity-and-operating-platform/?utm_source=TreppWire&utm_medium=TreppWire+Digital+Content&utm_campaign=TreppWire+Dec+Jan+2023+2024+Sponsorship
Episode Notes:
• Economic update: Fed decision and market reaction (0:23)
• Other data points: CPI, PPI, jobs (6:10)
• Hot takes: Impact of Fed decision on CRE (8:40)
• Office crabgrass (21:45)
• Office loan extensions (30:37)
• Green shoots for office (33:02)
• Macy's buyout (39:43)
• Retail news (42:20)
• Shoutouts (47:25)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/13/2023 • 54 minutes, 20 seconds
232. Lending & Leases & CRE Sales (Oh My!) But Still Plenty of CRE Bears
There has been plenty of cautious optimism in the economic and commercial real estate markets lately. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss what a year-end rally means to sellers on the fence. We also break down this week's gains, dive into green shoots and crab grass for the office and retail markets, and debate renting vs. buying. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Economic update (0:23)
Year-end rally? What happens to sellers on the fence? (3:07)
Mortgage REIT originations (12:50)
European CMBS issuance (14:20)
Taylor Swift: CRE's MVP (16:44)
Retail headlines (18:00)
Office green shoots (24:04)
Office Trading Alert: ground lease retired (27:53)
Office crabgrass (32:04)
Brokers start your engines (35:58)
Apartment sales transactions and renting vs. buying (38:00)
Shoutouts (43:37)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/6/2023 • 47 minutes, 33 seconds
230. As Distressed Assets Pile Up, Shlomo Chopp Tells Us How to Look for Opportunities
In this special guest episode, we are joined by Shlomo Chopp, Managing Partner of Terra Strategies and distressed debt expert. We analyze the state of the CRE and CMBS markets. Shlomo explains workouts, the distressed narrative in the current environment, the state of the office market, and even shares some optimistic takeaways. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Starting out in real estate (0:57)
- First distressed deal (2:20)
- How the distressed process works (4:19)
- Preventable mistakes that borrowers make (8:29)
- Distress narrative in the current market (11:54)
- Investing in CMBS distress (15:45)
- What is driving the increase in office delinquency rate? (18:30)
- Cause for optimism in the market? (21:50)
- Will the office space follow malls? (27:06)
- Shlomo on social media (30:25)
- New version of retail (32:27)
- Heads up for next year (39:31)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/29/2023 • 43 minutes, 20 seconds
231. Falling Rates, Issuance Uptick Make for (Very) Cautious Optimism Heading into 2023 Home Stretch
After a week of falling yields, benign inflation, and strong economics, we dig into some (very) cautious optimism for the commercial real estate market. In this week's episode, we also break down the latest CMBS delinquency rates, share green shoots and crab grass for retail and office, and examine the latest issuance data. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- New CMBS issuance (5:47)
- Trepp CMBS delinquency report (10:52)
- Office stories (16:03)
- Retail headlines (35:08)
- Hotel sales (43:23)
- Shoutouts (47:06)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/28/2023 • 52 minutes, 57 seconds
229. Alarm Bells from Retail Earnings; Reasons for Thanks in CRE
In an early Thanksgiving edition of The TreppWire Podcast, we review concerns from the latest retail earnings and what this means for interest rates and CRE. We dig through new loan maturities data, share stories for office and retail, and examine the news of Signature Bank’s multifamily loan sales. And finally, we close with the reasons we’re thankful for the CRE market this year – in former NFL coach and broadcaster John Madden’s "turkey leg" fashion. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• Retail earnings deep dive (1:39)
• Retail sales and headlines (10:21)
• Office stories (17:21)
• Maturities with DSCR <1.25x (30:16)
• Signature Bank multifamily loan sales (37:28)
• CRE’s turkey legs (41:17)
• Shoutouts (45:57)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/20/2023 • 52 minutes, 4 seconds
228. Carmen Spinoso Proves There is Still Value in Many US Malls, With Spinoso Real Estate Group
In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, the team is joined by Carmen Spinoso, CEO of Spinoso Real Estate Group. With more than three decades of shopping mall experience, Carmen explains the different sides of the mall operating and leasing business, breaks down receivership and saving assets, shares optimism for the mall space, and reflects on malls during past crises. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Background (0:23)
- Sides of the mall business (11:42)
- Receivership and saving assets (16:23)
- New leases getting signed (22:15)
- Glenbrook Square Mall (28:37)
- Optimism for malls (34:18)
-Experiential retail: Pickleball? and other mall magnets (40:12)
- Most difficult part of operating a mall (44:00)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/18/2023 • 48 minutes, 54 seconds
227. CPI Sends T-Yields Tumbling & REIT Shares Higher, But Retail CEOs Warn of Holiday Season
This week, a benign CPI reading sent Treasury yields plummeting and REIT shares higher and some big retail CEOs were saying beware of the holiday season. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we make sense of the macro news and also analyze the latest on commercial real estate prices, dig into office and retail data, and examine criticized loans in the multifamily sector. Stick around if you’re a fan of Ambrosia. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Spinoso Real Estate Group: https://spinosoreg.com/mall-investment-opportunity-and-operating-platform?utm_source=TreppWire&utm_medium=TreppWire+Digital+Content&utm_campaign=TreppWire+Oct+Nov+2023+Sponsorship
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• CRE prices (15:40)
• Negative office news this week (22:20)
• Office green shoots (30:09)
• Mixed-bag of retail news (32:54)
• Multifamily bank data (35:47)
• Shoutouts (39:00)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/17/2023 • 47 minutes, 24 seconds
226. Rate Rally Hits Brick Wall; WeBroke; CMBS Deals Show Signs of Office & Hotel Lending Life
This week, it was all about interest rates... and what the Treasury market gives the Treasury market takes away. In this episode, we explain the rate rally and what it means for the commercial real estate market. We dive into our take on the WeWork bankruptcy, share new deal information that sheds light on hotel and office lending, and of course share a lot of office crab grass. We also have some hotel and multifamily news. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Spinoso Real Estate Group: https://spinosoreg.com/mall-investment-opportunity-and-operating-platform?utm_source=TreppWire&utm_medium=TreppWire+Digital+Content&utm_campaign=TreppWire+Oct+Nov+2023+Sponsorship
Episode Notes:
• Market update (0:23)
• WeWork (8:31)
• Office green shoots (17:56)
• Office crab grass (23:13)
• Multifamily (31:15)
• Hotel news (35:24)
• October loan payoff report (38:15)
• Shoutouts (40:35)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/9/2023 • 45 minutes, 48 seconds
225. Multifamily Market Update, Where are the Opportunities Now? With Matthew Frazier, Jones Street
In a special guest episode, the team is joined by Matthew Frazier, CEO of Jones Street Investment Partners to discuss all things multifamily. Matt gives us a boots on the ground view of the narrative in the multifamily market, what has changed in the last 18 months, and shares where the opportunities lie. Tune in now.
Episode Notes
- Background (0:49)
- Multifamily contrarian? A focus on the Northeast market (2:40)
- Shift in multifamily over the last two years (5:28)
- Will work-from-home impact multifamily? (6:19)
- Flip in interest rates and rent growth (7:23)
- Playing offense or defense in this market? (10:14)
- What made another market attractive? (12:03)
- Indicators of relative value (13:38)
- The Gulf: What buyers want to pay, what sellers want to get (16:29)
- Multifamily maturities (18:23)
- Commercial real estate pressure points (20:20)
- Where the opportunities lie in CRE (21:47)
- Insurance costs (23:40)
- Benefits of vertical integration (25:32)
- Strength of Boston (27:45)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/7/2023 • 31 minutes, 38 seconds
224. Markets U-Turn as Treasury Yields & Risk Spreads Tumble; Mall Optimism; Bay Area Office Pain
In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the market U-turn that the industry watched as treasury yields and risk spreads tumbled. We dive into new deals, our CMBS delinquency report and a large industrial loan that caused a spike in that rate, REIT earnings and some optimism from mall CEOs, and more pain for the Bay Area office market. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Spinoso Real Estate Group: https://spinosoreg.com/mall-investment-opportunity-and-operating-platform?utm_source=TreppWire&utm_medium=TreppWire+Digital+Content&utm_campaign=TreppWire+Oct+Nov+2023+Sponsorship
Episode Notes:
• Economic update: Fed decision, spreads & rates (0:23)
• CRE deals announced (11:22)
• CMBS delinquency report (14:50)
• REIT earnings and mall CEOs (21:31)
• Retail stories (28:47)
• Office news (31:30)
• Industrial story (41:28)
• Shoutouts (43:12)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/2/2023 • 46 minutes, 43 seconds
223. Mixed Economic News Ahead of Fed Decision, Strong GDP, Silver Linings in CRE Issuance
In this week’s episode, we break down the recent economic news including GDP, budget deficit, and stock moves ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision next week. In CRE, we find some silver linings from mall and hotel loan issuance. Then, we have green shoots and crab grass for office, hotels, and industrial. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Spinoso Real Estate Group: https://spinosoreg.com/mall-investment-opportunity-and-operating-platform?utm_source=TreppWire&utm_medium=TreppWire+Digital+Content&utm_campaign=TreppWire+Oct+Nov+2023+Sponsorship
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• CRE deals (9:48)
• Office green shoots (14:07)
• Office crab grass (17:07)
• Retail headlines (26:43)
• Hotels news (30:32)
• Student housing green shoot (35:53)
• Industrial (36:33)
• Shoutouts (39:25)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/25/2023 • 45 minutes, 20 seconds
222. Mall Green Shoots Offset by Miserable Office Headlines; New Lending Comps
In this week’s episode, after analyzing the continued market volatility, we dig into some commercial real estate lending comps and the data behind the loans. We have a lot of news in office and retail – forming a dichotomy, sharing several green shoots for malls and even more crabgrass for the office sector. We break down stories about WeWork, value reductions, new leases, and close with a big multifamily headline. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Spinoso Real Estate Group: https://spinosoreg.com/mall-investment-opportunity-and-operating-platform?utm_source=TreppWire&utm_medium=TreppWire+Digital+Content&utm_campaign=TreppWire+Oct+Nov+2023+Sponsorship
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• Lending comps: rates and data (9:25)
• Retail crabgrass (17:45)
• Retail green shoots (26:45)
• Office crab grass (31:48)
• Value reductions (40:00)
• Leases (47:03)
• Multifamily loan value slashed (52:08)
• Shoutouts (54:15)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/20/2023 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 2 seconds
221. War in Middle East; Office, Hotel, Multifamily, Industrial Comps for Buyers/Sellers to Process
There was a lot of economic data this week with CPI, PPI, Fed minutes, and earnings season beginning. But after last weekend’s carnage in Israel, we pause to balance the data and headlines amid the horror. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we also break down comps for office, hotels, multifamily properties, and industrial buildings. Tune in now.
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Episode Notes:
• Economic update and the war in the Middle East (0:23)
• Loan payoffs hit 20-month low (9:45)
• Banking sector news (13:59)
• Valuations in the market (17:40)
• Office green shoots and crab grass (21:58)
• Industrial comps (30:43)
• Hotel headlines (33:41)
• Multifamily comps (37:53)
• Shoutouts (45:30)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/13/2023 • 49 minutes, 1 second
220. Rates Up, Risk Premiums Jump, and Lots of Painful CRE Comps
In this week’s episode, we discuss rising rates, a jump in risk premiums, and several painful comps in the commercial real estate market. The Trepp team searches for silver linings in a tough CRE market, we share positive retail stories, a lot of green shoots and crab grass for office, multifamily comps galore, and an industrial story to note. We also talk about NYC rent control and the retail apocalypse version in the office market. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update: stagflation, jobs, rates (0:23)
• NYC rent control discussion (3:27)
• Risk in the market (5:25)
• Banks' unrealized losses (8:00)
• Positive news for the retail market (10:24)
• Office green shoots (21:18)
• Office crabgrass (28:35)
• The retail apocalypse of the office market (32:48)
• Multifamily news and comps (39:28)
• Industrial story (45:10)
• Shoutouts (47:55)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Please take our listener feedback survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/6/2023 • 52 minutes, 58 seconds
213. CRE Rundown: Transactions, Office Value Reductions, Puerto Rican Loan Pay Off, Delinquency Data
In this week’s episode, we break down signs of positivity and weakness in the economic markets. We cover our latest CMBS delinquency data and examine CRE exposure to a potential Rite Aid bankruptcy. We have news to share for all the major CRE property sectors including an office valuation reduction, a development for a mall in Puerto Rico, industrial and apartment comps, and news for hotels. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• Rite Aid bankruptcy (8:51)
• CMBS delinquency report (11:54)
• Multifamily portfolio sale (13:57)
• Apartment comps (16:01)
• Office news (18:35)
• Office value reduction (27:54)
• Industrial comp (30:28)
• Puerto Rican mall loan development (33:40)
• Mall loan sale (37:02)
• Hotel & casino story (39:09)
• Quick hits: office and student housing (45:
• Shoutouts (47:54)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
This week, rising Treasuries, oil prices, and cooler-than-expected economic data left nowhere for investors to hide. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss the latest economic news, Jamie Dimon’s comments about a 7% Fed Funds rate, and break down the increase in delinquencies in both the CMBS and bank CRE loan markets. We also share several office and retail stories we tracked this week. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• CMBS delinquencies (
• Bank loan delinquencies (
• Retail (37:46)
•
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/28/2023 • 48 minutes, 52 seconds
218. Life, Lending, & Rock 'n' Roll: The Father of CMBS, Ethan Penner, Tells us How it all Started
In a special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by the pioneer of commercial real estate finance, Ethan Penner. Mr. Penner, known as the creator and 'father' of CMBS back in the 1990s, breaks down the lessons he learned through his life in CRE. We discuss the S&L crisis, guard rails for new market entrants, the cause of the Great Financial Crisis, how CMBS got started, and Ethan's new book. We also get to hear a bit about his famous rock 'n' roll parties. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by The Henley Group: https://www.thehenleygroup.com/
Order Ethan Penner's book, "Greatness is a Choice," for pre-sale now: https://www.amazon.com/Greatness-Choice-Ethan-Penner/dp/1394185758
Episode Notes:
- The story behind "Greatness is a Choice" (1:50)
- How the 'father' of CMBS got his start (4:50)
- The Savings & Loan Crisis (8:57)
- Ethan Penner's creation of CMBS (9:25)
- The Nomura moment: convincing a frightened market (13:27)
- The intersection of life and work (16:08)
- Guard rails for new CRE market entrants (17:07)
- Today's market: what is a disrupter? (25:45)
- The cause of the Great Financial Crisis (32:25)
- Walking the walk (38:37)
- "Slaying the Dragon" and Ethan's family reaction to his new book (40:30)
- The rock 'n' roll banker (42:55)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the post-Fed decision discussion – with the focus on the Dot Plot and the 'higher for longer' narrative. In CRE, we take on the hot (but not hot enough) topic of insurance, discuss a REIT bankruptcy filing, share office crabgrass, and more multifamily comps with interesting cap rates. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Post-Fed decision discussion: Dot Plot, higher for longer (0:23)
- Signature Bank CRE portfolio (8:12)
- Insurance expenses (11:37)
- Office (mostly) crabgrass (16:30)
- Retail (32:23)
- Multifamily comps (39:43)
- Shoutouts (42:24)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/21/2023 • 48 minutes, 20 seconds
216. Behind 280 Characters: StripMallGuy Opens Up on Anonymity, Tenants, & Chick-fil-A with Trepp
In a special guest episode, we welcome Twitter CRE sensation, StripMallGuy. After a successful career as a value-add retail buyer, StripMallGuy added the title of influencer to the resume. Here, we discuss the ins and outs of strip malls, how to balance social media and the day job, breaking into the industry, and more. Tune in now.
The episode is sponsored by The Henley Group: https://www.thehenleygroup.com/
Episode Notes
- Behind StripMallGuy (0:23)
- Why strip malls? (5:05)
- Adjusting to tighter credit conditions and a resilient consumer (6:15)
- Balancing social media and the job (8:50)
- Position as a value-add buyer (13:26)
- "We don't 1031, we don't cost seg, we don't finance on the front-end of the deal..." (16:51)
- The no-nos: Chick-fil-A, dry cleaners, & karate (21:07)
- Mom & pop vs. national tenants (23:59)
- Rookie mistakes (28:13)
- Negotiating: LOI vs. signed contracts (32:09)
- StripMallGuy's 'Black Swan' Event (36:07)
- Converting mom and pop to triple net lease structure (38:54)
- What would StripMallGuy be doing if not in CRE? (41:56)
- Best thing about NYC (42:25)
- HOAs (43:38)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week's episode, we break down the latest economic data and share several large commercial real estate stories. Starting with the news of more companies downsizing their office space, and closing with multifamily comps, we'll dive into the stories we've been tracking (some for many years). We also discuss note sales vs. loan extensions. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update: inflation, gas prices (0:23)
• Office news to know (10:28)
• Note sales or extensions? (19:59)
• Hotel headlines (34:50)
• Multifamily comps (40:33)
• Shoutouts (43:05)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/15/2023 • 48 minutes, 46 seconds
214. September Swoon: Healthy Market Pause or More? FDIC Loan Sale; Pigs Fly: CA Office Green Shoots
Is there a soft- or crash-landing looming? In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss a healthy pause in the markets, and debate whether something darker is lurking. Rising unemployment numbers and depleted household savings don’t deter the commercial real estate green shoots, and we even see positive signs for the California office market. We also break down the FDIC sale of Signature Bank’s loans, and share multifamily, retail, hotel, and industrial news. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Economic update: stocks, jobs (0:23)
FDIC loan sale (9:45)
Positive office stories (13:57)
Other happenings in office (20:45)
Apartment sale and multifamily stories(28:45)
Retail news (35:18)
Hotel sale (38:37)
Industrial story (42:02)
Shoutouts (44:53)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/7/2023 • 50 minutes, 38 seconds
212. Get the 'Knak' with CRE Legend Bob Knakal: Data-Driven Update, Retail Green Shoots, Policy
In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, Bob Knakal, Head of NY Private Capital Group at JLL, and legendary NYC CRE sales broker, joins the team to give a data-driven state of the market. We talk about data that moves the market, liquidity in the current environment, transaction volume stats, retail green shoots, public policy, Seinfeld, and much more. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Knakal by the numbers (2:49)
- Liquidity in the current environment (4:37)
- What impacts transaction volume? (8:09)
- Comparison of past crises; when does risk come back on? (12:25)
- How do you serve the market with data? (16:35)
- Complexity of NYC data (19:15)
- How's the market? (23:42)
- Data that moves the market (28:06)
- How does your day differ today from 20 years ago?(37:10)
- The Map Room (40:05)
- NYC public policy (46:15)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
8/29/2023 • 55 minutes
211. Multifamily Comps Galore; Retail Earnings Concerns; Interest Rates Level Off Ahead of Fed Talk
In this week’s episode, we decide if the glass was half-full or half-empty when it came to retail earnings, interest rates, and other macro news. We dig into several large stories for CRE: retail loans resolved with losses, multifamily comps, apartment loans heading to special servicing, and office valuation reductions. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• Retail stories (12:54)
• Multifamily news (23:12)
• Office headlines (31:45)
• Industrial green shoot (41:23)
• Bank downgrade assessment (43:37)
• Shoutouts (45:17)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/25/2023 • 49 minutes, 50 seconds
210. Late Summer Blues: Can Rising Treasury Yields Stall the CRE Markets?
Retailers and banks were the focus this week as retail sales and earnings dominated the news and talks of higher capital requirements for banks took a bite out of bank shares. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we back the latest macroeconomic news into commercial real estate and discuss if we think CRE is on an island of its own. We dive into a mix of office stories, multifamily news, retail headlines, and new loan originations Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• Backing the macro into CRE: CRE is an island (9:41)
• Office stories across the board (15:16)
• Multifamily news (31:14)
• Retail stories (35:31)
• Recent loan originations (36:40)
• Office comps (40:31)
• Shoutouts (42:07)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/17/2023 • 46 minutes, 55 seconds
209. Soft Landing Doesn’t Mean No Turbulence; WeWork Exposure; Where to Hide in CMBS
This week, economic data suggested the Fed might actually pull off a soft landing, but that won’t come without some turbulence. In this episode, we talk about the WeWork news and the firm’s CRE exposure, where investors can hide amid growing market distress, and the latest macroeconomic data. We also break down a potpourri of office stories, and some news for healthcare and industrial properties. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• Small balance delinquencies (9:41)
• WeWork news and CRE exposure (15:27)
• Office stories (22:26)
• Retail store closings (39:50)
• Healthcare story (41:50)
• Industrial deal (46:57)
• Shoutouts (49:13)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/11/2023 • 55 minutes, 25 seconds
208. Ringing in August with CRE Green Shoots; What Can Go Wrong?
In this week’s episode, we ‘ring’ in a new month with some green shoots for the commercial real estate market. The team explains why they are either buyers or sellers given the latest data. We run through the latest CMBS delinquency readings, retail news, office headlines, and more on multifamily expense data. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Positive news, what can go wrong?(0:23)
• CMBS delinquencies (12:39)
• Retail news to know(15:36)
• Office crabgrass (22:18
• Office green shoots (26:03)
• More on multifamily expenses (34:16)
• Shoutouts (35:46)
• Buyers or sellers in the market (38:30)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/2/2023 • 43 minutes, 10 seconds
207. Frisky Business: Solid Economic Data, Stocks Surging, CRE Sales. Are we Back?
There was a lot to like about the latest earnings numbers, economic data, and stock movement, but what does it all mean for CRE? In this week’s episode, we break down the ‘friskiness’ in the market following some positive signs. In CRE, we talk about a positive self-storage story, a mix of green shoots and crab grass for office, and retail news to note. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by BetterPitch: www.betterpitch.com.
Episode Notes:
• Positive economic news (0:23)
• What does it mean for CRE? (10:42)
• Self-storage company sold (15:48)
• Office crabgrass (19:21)
• Subleases (23:55)
• Office green shoots (28:17)
• Retail mixed bag (35:52)
• Bank CRE loan performance (43:09)
• Shoutouts (43:59)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
7/28/2023 • 51 minutes, 31 seconds
206. Irrational Exuberance in the Markets?; Property Transfers & Deed-in-Lieu; Multifamily Expenses
The markets seem to have gone from optimistic to exuberant over the last two weeks... In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss whether we are seeing 'irrational exuberance' yet, then dive into housing starts, jobless claims, retail sales, and bank earnings. In CRE, we break down several large office and retail stories, discuss more on multifamily syndicators, and take a look at property expense data across the US. Tune in now.
This episode of The TreppWire Podcast is sponsored by BetterPitch: https://www.betterpitch.com/
Episode Notes:
Irrational exuberance in the market? (0:23)
Macro data (4:09)
Bank earnings (9:27)
Government office occupancy (12:57)
Trepp Flash: Lead cable exposure (14:23)
Office value reduction (16:05)
Brutal sales comps (18:26)
Deed in lieus (20:30)
Office loans in special servicing (26:02)
Retail stories (3:48)
Multifamily syndicator follow-up (36:52)
Multifamily property expenses (41:48)
Shoutouts (45:14)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
7/20/2023 • 51 minutes, 7 seconds
205. Risk On! Inflection Point or False Flag? Enthusiasm Everywhere, Bearishness in Short Supply
In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, after the CPI and PPI readings came in, we question if the rally and equity pile on was the start of something bigger or a sign of participants getting ahead of themselves. We discuss borrowers handing back the keys, multifamily CRE CLO borrowing, bank earnings, and big stories for hotels, office valuations, subleases, and retail. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by BetterPitch: https://www.betterpitch.com/
Episode Notes:
- Economic update: CPI, PPI, company earnings (0:23)
- Risk back on, inflection or false start? (7:53)
- Multifamily CRE CLO borrowing (13:26)
- CRE borrowers handing back keys (17:52)
- Bank earnings (22:05)
- Ashford’s plans for $1B portfolio (23:59)
- Hotel stories (30:46)
- Office valuation cut (33:22)
- Subleases (35:46)
- Retail news (41:20)
- Shoutouts (47:48)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
7/12/2023 • 51 minutes, 13 seconds
204. No Holiday Lull for CRE: Comps Galore, Big Office News, H1 CMBS Recap
Although we expected a lull in market news and data during the holiday week, that was not the case for CRE. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we start with macro news that made headlines: jobs numbers, personal expenditures, and Treasury yields. We have a lot to cover in CRE with some large office stories, more sales comps across property types for the market to chew on, and a first half of 2023 CMBS recap of issuance, spreads, and pricing data. Buckle up for a ‘Live Wire.’ Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• First-half 2023 CMBS recap (6:40)
• Trepp Property Price Index (12:17)
• Office Trading Alert (14:00)
• Philly office stories (18:03)
• Subleases (23:20)
• Green shoots (27:15)
• Crabgrass (28:27)
• CRE loan maturities (31:10)
• Comps, comps, comps (32:51)
• Shoutouts (39:10)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
There was plenty of positive economic data to digest this week, all while Fed Chair Powell was “taking the punch bowl away,” commenting that more rate hikes may be necessary. In this week’s episode, we break it down. And in CRE, there were several large (and unpleasant) comps for investors to digest. We also analyze Trepp’s latest delinquency report; examine defeasance, yield maintenance, and discounted prepayments; and talk about a large industrial story. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic updates (0:23)
• Defeasance, yield maintenance, discounted prepayments (10:02)
• Bed Bath & Beyond auction(15:12)
• Trepp CMBS delinquency report (18:10)
• Office green shoots (22:50)
• Office crabgrass (28:26)
• Sales comps across the U.S. (33:46)
• Multifamily net operating income (41:42)
• Prologis + Blackstone(44:18)
• Shoutouts (47:51)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
6/29/2023 • 53 minutes, 17 seconds
202. Did Fed Pause Stall the Market? New Issue Pricing & Property Sector Rapid-Fire Rundown
In this episode, we discuss what we saw in the markets, starting with stocks hitting a wall after Fed Chair Powell indicated that more interest rate hikes were necessary. In CMBS, we dive into new issue pricing that provides market clarity. We also have a lot of CRE news to cover; a large apartment loan going to special servicing, office valuation reductions, some signs of life for the NYC office market, and several stories in industrial and life sciences.
Episode Notes:
• Economic updates (0:23)
• New issue pricing (7:39)
• Multifamily news (13:15)
• Office valuations (18:29)
• Office stories (20:29)
• Signs of life for NYC office (23:20)
• Retail green shoots (27:18)
• Negative retail news (29:02)
• Industrial headline (32:11)
• Life science stories (32:57)
• Shoutouts (38:29)
6/22/2023 • 46 minutes, 53 seconds
201. Optimism Hard to Find at CRE Event; Industrial Hitting a Wall?; Retail Owner Throws in Towel
This week, all eyes were on the inflation numbers, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and retail sales. In this episode, we dive into the macro news and discuss whether we think this is it for the CPI and Fed Funds Rate or if we’ll continue talking about it in the second half of the year.
In CRE, we share takeaways from the annual CREFC conference in terms of issuance, price discovery, and predictions for the market. We also dive into an industrial demand story, analyze multifamily data, and note some big news in retail and office. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• CPI, Fed, retail sales (0:23)
• CRE conference takeaways (7:58)
• Industrial demand (15:20)
• Multifamily: digging through the data (21:18)
• Retail trading alert (29:28)
• Mixed-use 101 (32:53)
• Office stories (36:59)
• Shoutouts (42:36)
6/16/2023 • 47 minutes, 45 seconds
200. Cutting Through the Haze; Looming Hotel Default Renews Lodging Concerns; More Office Subleases
In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, the Trepp team tries to cut through the haze (in the economic markets, CRE, and with regard to the smoke covering much of the Northeast). We discuss what may have seemed like a quiet week and what is really on the horizon. In property-type news, we dive into a story about a looming hotel default that is renewing concerns about the lodging market, and for office: there seems to be no end to the sublease news. Happy 200th episode of The TreppWire Podcast and thanks for listening! Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Commercial Real Estate Direct: https://crenews.com/
Episode Notes:
• Economic updates (0:23)
• Loans paying off on maturity (9:45)
• Hotel trading alert (12:18)
• Positive stories for the hotel market (16:30)
• Office green shoots (21:53)
• Office crabgrass (27:15)
• Retail sales (38:32)
• Systemic bank risk (41:53)
• Shoutouts (44:48)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
6/10/2023 • 51 minutes, 24 seconds
199. Office Delinquencies Hit 5-Year High; Issuance Defies Debt Ceiling Drama; State of CRE Market
This episode is sponsored by BetterPitch: https://www.betterpitch.com/. In this week’s episode, we break down the shift in economic news that will be bringing us back to our regularly scheduled programming of interest rate decisions, inflation, and job numbers. In commercial real estate, we had a big week for data – we saw the issuance of a CMBS deal, which is defying the debt ceiling drama and we also saw CMBS delinquency readings that investors have been anticipating for months. In office, there are several sublease stories of note. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Economic updates: turning our attention back to other economic indicators (0:23)
- CRE state of the market (7:43)
- CMBS deal coming to market (9:00)
- Can CRE operate in a frozen market? (14:21)
- Delinquency report (18:16)
- Office losses at banks (26:20)
- Office stories to watch (28:06)
- Retail sales (37:58)
- Shoutouts (40:20)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
6/2/2023 • 45 minutes, 2 seconds
198. Charting CRE Distress from Peak to (Silicon) Valley: TreppWire Recorded LIVE at NAIOP
In a special episode of our week-in-review podcast, the team shares a live presentation we gave at NAIOP Silicon Valley’s Capital Markets event. We have a data-driven review of what’s happening to commercial real estate in the region and across the U.S. We dive into data on the recent bank turmoil, delinquencies and distress across the country, loan maturities, lease renewals, occupancy, and more. Tune in now.
If you are looking for the presentation that goes along with this podcast, send an email to podcast@trepp.com.
Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- Silicon Valley: poised for rebirth? (4:07)
- Silicon Valley challenges (8:43)
- Bank data and distress (13:23)
- First Republic’s collapse by the numbers (16:15)
- Regional bank market share (19:40)
- Delinquencies across the country (26:31)
- Risk ratings (30:57)
- Upcoming distress (33:44)
- Loan maturities (34:59)
- Sublease availability (39:43)
- Occupancy and the knock-on effect (43:14)
- Lease terms, renewals, and rent (47:24)
- CRE stories to watch in Silicon Valley (50:00)
- Shoutouts (54:02)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/26/2023 • 54 minutes, 52 seconds
197. Debt Ceiling Deal Debate; CRE Poker Face: Hold ‘Em or Fold ‘Em; Office Special Servicing Moves
With slowing regional bank turmoil, all eyes shifted to the debt ceiling deal debate. In this week’s episode, we examine the latest economic news. Mike Flood of the Mortgage Bankers Association shares his perspective on the debt ceiling and bank regulation. In CRE, we saw several office loans transfer to special servicing, sublease stories, and comps. We also share retail green shoots and crabgrass, a hotel comeback story, and discuss our bank CRE concentration analysis. And in an ode to Sam Zell, we reference his mentality of knowing when to “hold ‘em” and when to “fold ‘em.” Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update(0:23)
• Debt ceiling thoughts: Mike Flood, MBA (6:45)
• Bank executive testimonials (9:35)
• Regulatory changes ahead (11:01)
• Bank CRE concentrations (15:14)
• Office special servicing transfers (18:19)
• Sublease stories (24:10)
• Office comps (27:58)
• Retail crabgrass (30:02)
• Retail green shoots (33:35)
• Hotel comeback story(36:12)
• Shoutouts (38:51)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/19/2023 • 43 minutes, 27 seconds
196. Storm Brewing… CRE Issues May be Least of Concerns; Retail Extensions; Rental Rates 101
With concerns over the debt ceiling, credit tightening, and bank deposit runs, problems in commercial real estate may be the least of investors’ worries. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine regional bank concerns and some promising fresh inflation data. In CRE, we talk good news for suburban retail, retail extensions, and more sublease stories. We also break down quoted versus effective rent. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic news (0:23)
• Earnings (9:43)
• Good news for suburban retail? (13:35)
• Retail extensions (18:00)
• Trading Alerts (21:23)
• Negative office news: subleases (26:01)
• Quoted vs. effective rent (32:51)
• Office green shoot and crabgrass story (38:49)
• Multifamily story (41:06)
• Shoutouts (43:55)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/12/2023 • 45 minutes, 44 seconds
195. Jittery Markets, More Bank Fallout, Office Comps
The yield on the 3-month treasury hit more than a 22-year high today, so, clearly, investors are jittery. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we explain what’s going on with the debt ceiling discussions, continued bank worries following the news of First Republic, and the economic uncertainty. In CRE, we cover the CMBS delinquency rate which held steady but revealed more concern for office, dive into comps and benchmarks for office, and review our Trading Alerts. Stick around to hear what ‘Siri’ says. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Jittery market: debt ceiling, bank worries, economic uncertainty (0:23)
• First Republic’s problems (9:23)
• CMBS delinquency report (14:10)
• Vornado pausing dividend (15:29)
• Office stories (17:16)
• CRE comps and benchmarks (20:06)
• Trading alerts: sublease space, move outs (25:41)
• Houston stories (32:30)
• Multifamily news (35:31)
• Shoutouts (41:39)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/5/2023 • 45 minutes, 26 seconds
194. Retail Apocalypse No More… Shifting Market Dynamics: TreppWire Recorded LIVE at ICSC
In a special episode of our week-in-review, the team shares a live presentation we put on for ICSC’s Continuing Education Michigan event, diving into the state of the retail market and the impact of macroeconomic events on commercial real estate. Here, we are joined by Emily D’Agostini Kunath of D’Agostini Companies to examine the “catchy” retail apocalypse theme, deciding if it still holds true in today’s market. We break down what current liquidity, lending, and capital issues mean for retail and decide where the opportunities lie.
If you are looking for the presentation that goes along with this podcast, send an email to podcast@trepp.com.
Episode Notes:
• Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity (1:40)
• Retail stats (7:50)
• Where was retail earlier this year? (13:05)
• Strength of brick-and-mortar(16:30)
• Store closings and bankruptcies(18:50)
• Retail weaknesses: malls (20:22)
• Street-level retail and crime (22:24)
• Dispelling the retail myths (32:15)
• Post-bank collapse: where is retail now? (34:18)
• Headlines we’re watching: debt ceiling (36:30)
• Detroit CRE sentiment (37:55)
• Where are opportunities? (40:45)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
4/24/2023 • 44 minutes, 56 seconds
193. Investors Exhale After Bank Earnings, but Hold Breath Watching Office News...
This week, we have the Managing Editor of Commercial Real Estate Direct, Orest Mandzy, joining to give us additional perspective within CRE. In this episode, we start with a market update, taking note of the data showing a softening economy. Then we take a look at housing starts and homebuilder sentiment, which remains negative.
In CRE, the team reviews our latest Quarterly Data Review, examining the data and trends that shaped the market in Q1. We also take a deep dive into office news and discuss bank earnings and their impact. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Market Update 00:50
Housing Starts 5:52
Office News 15:14
Bank Earnings 26:36
Retail Updates 30:00
Quarterly Data Review Magazine 31:37
Shoutouts: 33:37
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/20/2023 • 35 minutes, 18 seconds
192. Good Vibrations in a Shaky Market? Some Even in Office
In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, the team dives into the latest economic news and jobs data. Next up, we give an update on banks and give a sneak peek of Trepp’s Q1 Bank Earnings analysis. Then we sing the office blues but do find positive office news, with big office loans to keep on your radar, and then debate if in-office is coming back …again. Stick around to hear multifamily news and a preview of Trepp’s AI podcast. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Economic and job data (0:25)
Update on Banks (7:07)
Two CMBS Deals Priced (10:06)
Return to office (13:57)
Sublease and office moves (16:30)
Big office loans to watch (22:35)
Retail News (26:28)
Multifamily Housing (36:05)
Shoutouts (40:32)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/11/2023 • 42 minutes, 34 seconds
191. Tightening Credit Conditions, The Frustration Index, “Non-Issuance”
With the urgency of the bank concerns calmed for now, the spotlight this week turned to jobs and economic data. In this episode, we examine the signs of weakening across the markets ahead of a big jobs week.
We also review indications of potential consumer health pressure and/or receding inflation from early retail earnings. In CRE, we discuss tightening lending conditions, CMBS issuance dropping to levels not seen since 2012, delinquencies across the US, and big headlines to watch. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Markets weakening: economics and job data (0:23)
• Fed speak (6:00)
• Signs from retail earnings (9:45)
• Blackrock selling failed bank securities (12:43)
• Tightening of lending conditions (17:25)
• Dallas Fed survey
• CMBS issuance or “non issuance?”(23:26)
• Delinquency moves across the US (26:40)
• Property sector news (29:57)
• Headlines of CRE stories to watch (34:07)
• Shoutouts (40:27)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/6/2023 • 43 minutes, 25 seconds
190. It's Happening: Office Delinquencies Tick Up Again, Calls for Bank Regulation, and Wrap on Q1
This week, the White House called for stricter rules for mid-sized banks as lawmakers sifted through what happened with the recent bank failures and what needs to be done in response. In this episode, we dive into some more details of the SVB bank run, then we debate what makes an asset qualify as "toxic." The team discusses the CMBS Delinquency Rate dip in March, while the office rate continues to climb. Lastly, we discuss the retail, multifamily, and hotel sectors. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
We're Not Out of the Woods Yet (0:20)
What Makes a Toxic Asset? (9:40)
Bank Money Flows (14:40)
CMBS Delinquency (23:21)
CMBS Spreads and Concerns about CRE (27:10)
Crabgrass in Office (31:00)
Green Shoot Trading Alerts (35:09)
Retail, Multifamily, and Hotels (37:00)
Shoutouts (42:01)
4/1/2023 • 46 minutes, 44 seconds
189. Impending Credit Crisis? Perspective from a Private Lender, Warren de Haan, ACORE Capital
In a special guest episode, Warren de Haan, managing director, co-founder, and co-CEO of ACORE Capital joins the team to provide market perspective from a private CRE lender. Here, we examine the impending credit crisis by talking through the current lending environment. Warren shares a boots-on-the-ground view of private lending, market constraints, and assets that are facing pressure or have opportunities.
Episode Notes:
- Intro (0:20)
- Setting the stage: take on current environment (1:07)
- Deposit insurance issues (7:34)
- CRE and market constraints (8:50)
- Dealing with troubled assets (12:30)
- Playing lending offense and defense (17:20)
- Potential for regulation? (19:20)
- Is there a potential for optimism in 2023? (22:12)
- Third rail of CRE: office sector (24:24)
- Assets that will face pressure (29:18)
- Where are the opportunities? (30:57)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
3/29/2023 • 35 minutes, 27 seconds
188. Volatility Up, Liquidity Down for Banks & CRE; Office Turmoil; Restructuring Program Needs?
This week, the Fed raised interest rates amid concerns over bank liquidity. In this episode, we dive into what the Fed decision means for bank securities holdings, explain the FHA/deposit insurance model, and ask the question, “can the Fed fight both inflation and contagion?” In other news, there were large layoffs this week and a lot of negative news for office. Lastly, the team debates the proposal for bank regulators to reestablish CRE troubled debt restructuring programs. (And finally, happy 3rd anniversary to The TreppWire Podcast!) Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Fed decision, CS buyout, more banking news (0:23)
• Interest rate hike and impact on banks (12:04)
• FDIC and FHA/deposit insurance debate (15:33)
• Big layoffs this week (21:32)
• Bad times for office (23:26)
• Emergency measures for distressed CRE debt(32:04)
• Shoutouts (41:23)
3/25/2023 • 46 minutes, 58 seconds
187. Holding Pattern for CMBS Lenders; Cash is King for Banks; Liquidity, Anyone?
This week, Trepp’s Managing Director, Matt Anderson joins the team to break down the banking market turbulence after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the takeover of Signature Bank by regulators. In this episode, we examine how and why this happened and what came next for other banks and their stocks. We discuss the liquidity position of banks and the current holding pattern for CMBS lenders as lending and issuance dry up. In CRE news, we dive into several office stories that represent continued challenges for the market. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• What happened with banks this week? (0:23)
• Signature Bank’s NY CRE Exposure (13:32)
• Small bank failures to come? (16:50)
• Deposits leaving banks (20:49)
• Contagion to other banks (21:28)
• CRE lending and CMBS issuance (24:52)
• Unrealized losses (37:09)
• CRE stories: more bad news for office (44:45)
• Shoutouts (49:03)
See our banking news monitor here: https://www.trepp.com/banking-news-monitor
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
3/17/2023 • 52 minutes, 50 seconds
186. CMBS Spread Widening: Buying Opportunity or Trouble Coming?; Flurry of Office News
In this week's episode, we dive into the market reaction that followed Fed Chair Powell’s comments, the high stakes that surround the latest jobs data, and a proposed budget. We talk about soaring CMBS spreads and if the widening represents a buying opportunity or a sign of trouble coming for the industry. Then in CRE, we have a flurry of office crabgrass (and a few green shoots) to share. Stick around to hear our take on water cooler data and betting on WWE... Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Market reactions this week (0:23)
CMBS spreads soaring (9:45)
Loans paying off on their maturity date (13:56)
Return to office (15:39)
Dumping of office space: Amazon (18:30)
Flurry of negative office news (21:04)
Office green shoots (33:25)
Programming notes (33:40)
Shoutouts (35:10)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
3/10/2023 • 40 minutes, 37 seconds
185. Making Sense of $30 Trillion in Bills, A Debt Ceiling Clock, & QT with Danielle DiMartino Booth
We may not be fluent in Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but in this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we found an expert who is.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, economist, and former Federal Reserve insider joins the team to make sense of the Fed Chair’s comments coming off the heels of the Senate Banking Committee meeting.
We talk about the size of US debt, quantitative tightening, interest rates and Qe2, and how this all can impact commercial real estate. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Danielle DiMartino Booth intro (0:23)
• Making sense of Fed Chair Powell’s comments (3:30)
• Has the Fed been wobbly? (5:50)
• You switch seats with J. Powell? What do you do differently? (9:46)
• How will the average CRE owner or lender be impacted? (11:18)
• Size of US debt: is it a ‘Black Swan’ event? (13:57)
• Quantitative tightening not being priced like it used to (16:20)
• Buyers’ remorse… is there more to come? (19:05)
• Can we quantify how high rates would be in other scenarios? (21:40)
• What would trigger a 2006/2007 event? (24:15)
• Industrial reaching inflection point (27:45)
• Biggest risks for CRE (29:55)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Find Danielle: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
3/8/2023 • 40 minutes, 59 seconds
184. Good News is Hard to Find: Delinquency Jumps, Sublease Siege, Massive Trading Alert
In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, it is hard to find good news. Amid treasury yield increases, economic data, consumer confidence, and retail earnings, there are negative signs all around. In commercial real estate, we report on the CMBS delinquency rate posting its second-largest increase since the start of the pandemic, discuss office obsolescence, and dive into a massive trading alert surrounding a large multifamily loan. We also examine data for hotel markets across the US, life insurance mortgage returns, and more. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic news and data to watch(0:23)
• Housing market and jobs(5:28)
• Retail earnings (8:01)
• CMBS delinquency report, rate jumps (13:02)
• Massive trading alert: large multifamily loan (16:20)
• Retail stories (25:30)
• Industrial story (29:43)
• Office obsolescence (31:26)
• Office stories: sublease siege (33:52)
• Hotels (38:59)
• Life insurance commercial mortgage returns(43:19)
• Shoutouts (44:37)
3/3/2023 • 47 minutes, 49 seconds
183. Mixed Economic & Earnings Messages, Signs of Stagflation – What Does it Mean for CRE?
In this week's episode, there is a lot of news to digest. To start, we review economic results, Fed minutes, geopolitical tension, and company earnings that are revealing mixed messages and signs of stagflation and examine what the impact will be on CRE. In property-type news, we dive into several stories to watch for office and retail and share news for hotels. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Geopolitical tension, Fed minutes, economic results, earnings (0:23)
• Tech company news: Intel & Nvidia (13:50)
• Office return to work snags: Disney & Amazon (17:04)
• $1.7 billion office loan default (19:07)
• Banks’ office loans in danger (22:20)
• Office headlines (25:24)
• Retail stories (28:00)
• Hotel CRE news (36:15)
• Shoutouts (39:31)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week's episode, we cover the latest jobs and housing data, travel earnings, and share takeaways from the MBA CREF conference. We also talk about Brookfield’s defaults and office crabgrass, then share some large multifamily loan moves.
In case you missed it, Trepp and CompStak released a report examining office loan maturities and lease expirations. Trepp’s Director of Research, Stephen Buschbom, and, CompStak's Director of Real Estate Intelligence, Alie Baumann, talk through some of the findings. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic news of the week (0:23)
• Travel earnings (7:27)
• Negative stories: train derailment (9:19)
• MBA CREF conference takeaways (12:12)
• Office: construction; Brookfield defaults (16:16)
• Office crabgrass stories (25:31)
• Office loan maturities and lease expirations (27:40)
• Large multifamily loan stories (40:14)
• Shoutouts (42:38)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
2/17/2023 • 46 minutes, 24 seconds
181. Hotels Roaring Back, Industrial Weakening, Tech Impact to Office
In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine a few themes in commercial real estate: signs of improvement for the hotel market, a slowdown in industrial, and the impact of tech on the office sector. We also dive into the pricing of a new CMBS conduit deal, and cover some recent company earnings and what they mean for the markets at large. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic news (
• Company earnings (6:39)
• Bed Bath & Beyond
• CMBS Conduit Deal (14:01)
• CMBS conduit deal ~17
• Self-storage ~17:17
• Industrial (21:07)
• Hotels (22:50)
• Office green shoots (27:05)
• Office crabgrass (31:13)
• Shoutouts (45:14)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
2/10/2023 • 48 minutes, 59 seconds
180. Seismic Shift in Office? Podcast Trading Alert, Multifamily Markets to Watch, Grocery Retail
In this week's episode, we present an inaugural Trading Alert recorded live on the podcast, where we dive into the news of a large real estate player handing back the keys to their office holdings and decide if it will cause a seismic shift in the CRE sector.
We talk multifamily markets to watch, delinquency rates revealing it’s not all doom and gloom, and many corporate announcements and earnings. Stay tuned for green shoots and crabgrass in office and a discussion about grocery-anchored retail. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Economic news (0:23)
Confusing jobs story (7:55)
Corporate announcements (9:45)
Podcast Trading Alert: RXR Handing Back the Keys (12:30)
Redemptions (18:38)
Vornado writing down portfolio value (23:06)
Delinquency report (24:14)
Bed Beth & Beyond closing 87 more stores (28:22)
Office green shoots (33:33)
Crabgrass in office (35:43)
One person’s crab is another person’s green (38:58)
Multifamily markets to watch (41:14)
Grocery-anchored retail (43:37)
Shoutouts (47:33)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
2/2/2023 • 51 minutes, 12 seconds
179. Bumpy Year Ahead, Loan Spreads in Volatile Times, Renters’ Bill of Rights & Multifamily Impact
In this week's episode, we are reviewing what looks like a bumpy year ahead for the economic markets. We talk about the prospect of national rent control, which has sent worries through the multifamily market, company earnings, housing news, and more tech layoffs (+ some company expansions).
In the CMBS market, we review historical loan spreads, which can provide a useful metric during volatile times, and talk about a conduit deal that priced this week. Stick around for office stories to watch, retail headlines, and a rare office-to-industrial conversion. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Economic update: the bumpy year ahead (0:23)
- Renters' Bill of Rights (3:27)
- Housing news (4:54)
- Earnings and tech layoffs (11:55)
- Companies raise wages and hire (16:20)
- Historical loan spreads (17:13)
- CMBS deal priced this week (20:48)
- Regal Cinemas and bankruptcy news (25:07)
- Office occupancy and work-from-home trends (29:35)
- Office CRE stories (33:23)
- Retail green shoots and crabgrass (42:17)
- How quickly do loans “workout" in special servicing(44:14)
- Shoutouts (46:11)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/27/2023 • 51 minutes, 45 seconds
178. CRE Transactions Drop, Big City Office Blues Hit Seattle, Japanese Bond Market
In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are watching the Japanese bond market, big bank earnings, the legal debt ceiling, retail sales, and housing news. In commercial real estate finance, we talk about retailer bankruptcies, the latest sales transaction data, office loans to watch, and sublease, sales, and vacancy stories across the country. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update: Fedspeak (0:23)
• Japan/debt ceiling (9:02)
• Mixed bag for bank earnings (12:08)
• Tech layoffs (18:01)
• Party City bankruptcy (19:17)
• Digging through the data: CRE transactions decline (22:37)
• Office loans to watch (26:11)
• Bad news for Seattle (29:06)
• Brokers start your engines (34:16)
• Denver trading alert (35:36)
• Statefarm portfolio (37:50)
• Sublease space in Columbus (39:38)
• Shoutouts (41:58)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/20/2023 • 47 minutes, 56 seconds
177. ‘Game of Chicken’ for Players in CRE Finance, CREFC Sentiment; Office Sublease Special
For the last few days, the podcast team was at CREFC Miami, where the sentiment surrounded “cautious optimism” (or was it “cautious pessimism?”) and the 'game of chicken' that is taking place for buyers/sellers and borrowers/lenders. In this week's episode, Orest Mandzy of CRE Direct joins the team to share our takeaways from the CRE finance industry conference, dive into what’s to come for multifamily and affordability, examine where CMBS issuance and loan payoffs stand, and share crabgrass and green shoots for retail and office. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Economic update (0:23)
Good news on inflation (3:07)
Housing (6:15)
CREFC Confidential: Industry conference Sentiment (10:16)
Multifamily and affordability panel (20:25)
Year-End Magazine: CMBS issuance (25:10)
December 2022 loan payoffs (29:32)
Retail crabgrass (31:38)
Retail positives (33:20)
Sublease special (39:02)
Office crabgrass (41:09)
Greenies in office (44:04)
Shoutouts (48:53)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/13/2023 • 53 minutes, 42 seconds
176. New Year, Same Market Concerns; CMBS Delinquencies Rise, Office & Retail Layoffs, Closures
Recent reports show that more than two-thirds of economists at 23 large financial institutions are predicting a U.S. recession. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the negativity that has made its way to 2023, reviewing Fed minutes, more Tech firm issues, and our own CMBS delinquency rate rising in December 2022.
It’s not all bad news. Among news about firms downsizing, store closures, and layoffs, we find some positive stories for the retail and office sectors. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Economic Update: Fed minutes, recession, Tech Wreck (0:23)
Downsizing at tech firms (4:55)
Twitter cost cutting (8:28)
Vote of confidence: UC BREIT (11:42)
CMBS delinquency report (15:01)
Office news (20:50)
Green shoots in office (23:08)
Crabgrass for office (28:00)
Bed Bath & Beyond running out of cash (31:20)
Layoffs & closures (34:50)
Retail green shoots (37:45)
Shoutouts (46:15)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/6/2023 • 51 minutes, 2 seconds
175. A Look Back & Ahead: 2022 CRE Market Surprises, What’s to Come in 2023
In the final episode of 2022, the team pauses to review the year, reflecting on pleasant and unpleasant surprises and the CRE stories that topped the headlines. In this week's episode, we share a look back at 2022 and also look ahead to 2023, sharing some of our commercial real estate and economic market predictions for next year based on what we've learned from the stories. Stick around to learn what a TWPT is. Wishing a happy new year to all our listeners! Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Economic overview (0:23)
Look back at 2022: pleasant surprises (8:43)
Unpleasant surprises (14:22)
Top content of 2022 (20:43)
Positive trading alerts: retail (24:03)
Negative trading alerts: tenants vacating, subleases, tech news(27:41)
2023 predictions (36:05)
Shoutouts (46:18)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week's episode, we discuss weak holiday sales, retail earnings, and the soft housing market. In CRE, there is a lot to cover in the office and retail sectors, with positive, negative, and neutral stories that paint a picture of what is to come in 2023. The team also shares their holiday wish lists. Happy holidays to all our listeners!
Episode Notes:
• Economic data: consumer sentiment, recession, earnings (0:23)
• Housing market headwinds(6:25)
• Commercial mortgage universe increases(14:41)
• Office losses in major markets (16:45)
• Positive office stories (18:50)
• Why the recent increase in cap rate reporting? (22:10)
• Office crabgrass (25:27)
• Retail news(33:31)
• Mall credit stories (37:18)
• Programming and shoutouts (39:23)
• Holiday Wishlist (41:46)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/23/2022 • 44 minutes, 31 seconds
173. All Eyes on Office, Fed Dot Plot, Violent Market Reaction
This week, the big investor reaction was to the Fed’s so-called “dot plot” that sees a higher Fed Funds target range. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into the welcomed CPI print, the Fed decision, retail sales, housing, and what it all means for CRE.
We also have a lot to discuss in the office market, with a focus on loan refinancings, tenant moves, space consolidations, and more. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic data: CPI, Fed decision(0:23)
• Labor, jobs, housing (4:33)
• Good week for borrowers(6:55)
• Joann Fabrics hold on dividend payments(10:12)
• Office conversion story (12:54)
• Positive office news (14:35)
• Office mixed greens(22:10)
• Office crabgrass (25:40)
• Retail green shoots (29:02)
• Amazon movie theaters (30:56)
• Shoutouts (31:27)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/16/2022 • 36 minutes, 31 seconds
172. Gloomy CRE Mood: Is Office the New Mall? Industrial Cracks, But Plenty of Hotel Green Shoots
In this week’s episode, we analyze what appears to be a commercial real estate market turning negative. Rob Jordan, Head of CMBS, joins the team as we discuss market sentiment, borrower concerns, and predictions for the economy and Q4 bank earnings.
In property-type news, we saw a lot of negative news for the office market – opening the door to the question: are offices the new malls? We also see cracks in the industrial market, but the positive signs in recent hotel stories help reel in the negativity. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• Sentiment for 2023 (7:41)
• Multifamily borrower concerns (11:08)
• Barry Sternlicht NYU conference comments (13:42)
• Q4 bank earnings predictions (19:07)
• Retail news to know(20:07)
• Green shoots (24:26)
• Office conversions (26:09)
• Hotel resilience (33:20)
• Industrial cracks (36:03)
• Shoutouts (38:37)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/9/2022 • 42 minutes, 33 seconds
171. Loan Modifications, the Trepp Unicorn Story, Multifamily Delinquencies
In this week’s episode, we dive into some major stories touching the CRE and CMBS markets including office crabgrass, interesting loan modifications, hotel loan extensions, retail challenges, and industrial news. In a new segment, we introduce the Trepp unicorn, diving into a story about rare excess recovery. We also share our latest delinquency data and life insurance commercial mortgage returns. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Market update: Fed, jobs, supply chain, housing (0:23)
• Delinquency report (9:17)
• Life insurance commercial returns (15:47)
• Office crabgrass (18:16)
• Office green shoots (19:54)
• Airbnb’s listing service (24:20)
• Hotel stories (27:26)
• Retail CRE news (31:10)
• Industrial acquisition (36:05)
• Trepp unicorn: rare excess recovery (38:14)
• Shoutouts (41:04)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/2/2022 • 47 minutes, 6 seconds
Special Interview: Prepping for the Dana Point Corporate CLO Summit with Lauren Bautista, Opal Group
In a special interview, we prep for the upcoming CLO Summit Annual Conference with the help of Lauren Bautista, Managing Director at Opal Group. The team dives into the state of the corporate CLO and leveraged loan market showcasing what a tumultuous market has done to CLOs, conference attendance, and new discussions and entrants into the space.
We also provide a market update on CLO issuance, refinancing, and spreads. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Background on Opal events: attendance/panels (0:31)
• CLO market update (4:13)
• European vs. US markets and conferences (10:15)
• Refinancing trends and data (13:27)
• CLO spreads(17:38)
• Business travel trends (20:42)
• Acquisition of smaller managers (24:17)
• Market predictions (28:03)
• Where are the opportunities?(30:01)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/30/2022 • 33 minutes, 12 seconds
170. Extensions, Missed Payments, Dropping Values: Smorgasbord of CRE News
This week, earnings season wound down with more retailers showing better-than-expected results and a shortened trading week due to the holiday meaning more focus on what the Fed is signaling for December. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into several big stories across the major property types: borrowers extending, missing balloon payments, and property valuations declining. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic data (0:23)
• Consumer resilience? (6:53)
• Retailer earnings and store closures (8:54)
• Layoffs (13:09)
• NYC ground lease stories (14:56)
• Kroger Albertson’s exposure (20:17)
• Nordstrom vacating Minneapolis space (22:12)
• Retail: missed balloon dates, values decline, loan extensions (23:30)
• Multifamily (32:26)
• Hotel positive news (38:15)
• Student housing story(43:09)
• Office news to watch(46:01)
• Shoutouts (47:11)
11/22/2022 • 50 minutes, 24 seconds
169. Finding Green Shoots (As People Seek Taylor Swift Tix); Floating Rate CRE CLOs; Retail Earnings
This week, it was easier to find green shoots than Taylor Swift tickets, but CRE still can’t “shake off” higher rates. In this week’s episode, Andrew Jacobs, Head of Structured Finance, joins the team as we discuss retail earnings, the CRE CLO market, housing data, loan payoffs, and the impact on leveraged loans in a higher-rate environment. We also dive into a few major office, retail, and hotel stories to note this week. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic data (0:26)
• Corporate CLO market in a higher rate world (7:45)
• Housing market update (10:46)
• Retail earnings (12:33)
• Ballooning inventory (17:10)
• Loan payoffs (18:43)
• CRE CLOs (20:46)
• Digging through the data: lease expirations (26:27)
• Office vacancies (27:27)
• US banks considering office loan sales (31:20)
• Office green shoots (33:13)
• Manhattan office Trading Alert (34:42)
• Retail stories (36:47)
• Hotel news to watch (38:34)
• Shoutouts (42:25)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/17/2022 • 46 minutes, 56 seconds
168. Making Sense of Midterms and the CRE Regulatory Landscape with the Mortgage Bankers Association
In a special guest episode, Michael Flood, SVP of Commercial & Multifamily, and Borden Hoskins, AVP of Legislative & Political Affairs from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) join the team to provide an update on the midterm elections and the CRE regulatory landscape. We dive into what the election results mean for CRE, how various sectors will be affected, and what regulators will focus their initiatives on in 2023.
Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Midterm elections and legislative overview (0:47)
• Oversight issue: CFPB (7:47)
• What could happen? The lame ducks (9:05)
• Where does lending come from if FHA is under threat? (13:35)
• GSEs and lending caps (14:20)
• Liquidity and available capital (20:08)
• Tenants (26:43)
• What's coming for different forms of finance? (28:36)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode, we dive into the latest news surrounding the CPI print, cracks in the housing market, and the ‘Tech Wreck’ that is dragging the markets down. In CRE, Research Director, Stephen Buschbom joins to talk through REIT earnings and student housing loan distress. We also provide recent negative multifamily and office stories. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic news(0:26)
• CPI numbers (11:02)
• Impact of election on CRE (15:08)
• Tech wreck (16:32)
• REIT earnings: overview(19:20)
• Office REITs (21:11)
• Office news (27:43)
• Crabgrass (32:23)
• Multifamily price reset (39:30)
• Student housing loan distress (42:44)
• Shoutouts (46:41)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/11/2022 • 50 minutes, 28 seconds
166. Will Floating-Rate Loans Sink Upon Maturity?, Delinquencies Rise, No Leaks in the Boat... Yet
This week, investors expected the interest rate increase, but the commentary was more hawkish than predicted. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into the latest economic and CMBS data, highlighting the recent rise in delinquencies. In digging through the data, we found that there is about $300M worth of active "floating-rate" loans, so what is the story here? Then, we share green shoots and crabgrass for multifamily, office, and hotels. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- CMBS delinquency report (10:10)
- CMBS spreads (16:55)
- Digging through the data (21:32)
- Multifamily sale (28:03)
- Multifamily headlines (33:43)
- Student housing acquisition (35:57)
- Hotel story (37:35)
- Tech impact on office space (39:01)
- Office news (40:55)
- Shoutouts (45:57)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/4/2022 • 50 minutes, 19 seconds
165. Tech Turmoil Weighs on Markets; Will Falling CRE Prices Lead to Fed Pivot?
In this week's episode, we review mixed economic data, with a focus on the latest news for the technology sector and how it will impact CRE. We discuss reasons for optimism and pessimism, discuss CMBS spreads, a cap rate analysis, and hairline fractures for the multifamily market. We also share some office headlines and give an overview of NYC's Local Law 97. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic update (0:23)
• Interest rates inflection point (8:20)
• Digging into tech earnings (10:32)
• Impact on CRE (17:25)
• Optimistic or pessimistic? (20:12)
• Cap rates analysis (26:37)
• CMBS spread levels (30:45)
• Multifamily cracks (32:32)
• Office stories (40:19)
• Hotel news (42:28)
• Local Law 97 (43:28)
• Shoutouts (45:45)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/28/2022 • 50 minutes, 35 seconds
164. Wading Through Some CRE Distress with Tony Yousif, SVN
In a special guest episode, we welcome Tony Yousif, Director of National Accounts at SVN. We dive into the latest in commercial real estate distress, with Tony sharing a boots-on-the-ground view of asset classes to watch, trends by geography, and the difference among types of lenders. Tony shares where the opportunities are and where some may get stuck in the mud. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
- Background (0:21)
- Property type coverage (5:26)
- Geographical trends (7:11)
- What’s happening in multifamily? headwinds (9:05)
- Typical timing for valuation requests and transactions (14:40)
- What are lenders seeing? (17:53)
- Is the extend and pretend appetite across the board? (25:35)
- Office conversions (30:38)
- Office occupancy sentiment (33:00)
- Where's the opportunity right now? (35:48)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/25/2022 • 40 minutes, 36 seconds
163. Subleases & Givebacks Galore; $300 Billion of Upcoming Maturities; Where’s the Stress?
This week, we saw the 10-year yield hit its highest level since 2008. In this episode, we examine what was a rough week in terms of economic data but not for the markets, also highlighting sirens in housing, and the latest themes from bank earnings. In CRE, we go through a list of office sublease stories and we review the amount of loans maturing within the next 24 months. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Bad economic data, markets powered through (0:23)
Digging through the data: more maturities (9:25)
Office subleases and crab grass (13:41)
Stories to keep your eye on (19:56)
Green shoots in CRE (27:56)
Retail stories (38:25)
Shoutouts (41:09)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/20/2022 • 44 minutes, 6 seconds
162. Rising Rates, Cost of Interest Rate Caps Threaten to Derail CRE; Top 5 Multifamily Markets
In this week’s episode, we examine how rising rates and the cost of interest rate caps are threatening to derail the commercial real estate market. Then, we dig through operational and origination statistics for multifamily across the top five markets and compare the data to the office sector statistics. We close by reviewing the latest office and retail headlines to watch.
Episode Notes:
Gloomy economic outlook(0:23)
Perception of CPI (6:20)
Labor problem (10:49)
Mortgage rates (12:26)
101: Cost of interest rate caps (13:40)
Digging through the data: top multifamily markets (23:13)
Multifamily vs. office origination data (26:27)
Office grabgrass (29:23)
Mall stories: CMBX 6 loss and missed payments (35:26)
Shoutouts (36:43)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/14/2022 • 41 minutes, 7 seconds
161. Digging Through the Data: Multifamily Cracks, CMBS Metrics, Bank Earnings Predictions
In this week’s episode, we search for signs to see if the economy is responding to the Fed’s medicine. In a segment called ‘Digging Through the Data,’ we examine underlying distress for multifamily, retail and lodging. We also provide an update on the CMBS market, reviewing delinquency rates and slowed issuance. Then, we share predictions for Q3 bank earnings.
Episode Notes:
• Economic news (0:23)
• Multifamily distress (7:45)
• CMBS delinquency report (13:13)
• CMBS issuance (17:40)
• Digging through the data: loan value(20:17)
• Office news (22:44)
• Office green shoots (30:10)
• Retail headlines (33:53)
• Q3 Bank Earnings predictions (41:37)
• Shoutouts (44:10)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/6/2022 • 49 minutes, 55 seconds
160. Searching for Light in a Stormy Market, CRE Distress, Hurricane Exposure
This week, markets are in turmoil, the dollar is surging, and a currency crisis triggered a surprise move by the Bank of England. With all of that, we also can’t ignore the impact of Hurricane Ian. In this episode, we dive into the headlines, with a theme that when trust starts to evaporate, so does liquidity. We also review data surrounding true signs of CRE distress, map the exposure of $52 billion of CRE loans to the hurricane, and talk news for office, retail, and multifamily properties. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic news (0:23)
• Trust issue (10:36)
• Hurricane Ian: CRE exposure (15:08)
• CRE distress: the data (20:16)
• Office positive news (26:26)
• Bad CRE news (31:54)
• Retail positives (38:15)
• Shoutouts (41:37)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/30/2022 • 44 minutes, 42 seconds
159. CEO Warnings, Surging Interest & Cap Rates, Dot Plot Danger: Where Are Green Shoots?
While the latest interest rate hike was no surprise, markets reacted this week. In this week’s episode, we dive into the economic news to know: housing, rates, and big company news. In CRE, we preview an analysis of multifamily cap rates, dive into life insurance commercial mortgage returns and share the latest hotel, retail, and office stories.
Episode Notes:
Economic news (0:23)
Hotels (18:09)
Positive office developments (22:49)
Office crabgrass (27:42)
Brokers start your engines (37:41)
Retail news (38:31)
Trepp LifeComps Return Index (43:41)
Shoutouts (45:27)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/23/2022 • 48 minutes, 53 seconds
158. Bleak Week: Mixed Bag of CRE & Economic Data; Inflation, Transactions, Trading Alerts
In a week full of bad news, there were some positive signs for the CRE market that shone through… and there’s also pickleball. In this week’s episode, we dive into the swath of economic data to digest including inflation, earnings, and stock moves. We cover retail trading alerts, multifamily news and cap rates, and office transactions and leases to watch in Manhattan.
Episode Notes:
Economic data to digest (0:23)
Inflation and Barry Sternlicht comments (4:12)
FedEx tenant news (11:01)
The good news (13:00)
Quantitative tightening (16:21)
Retail trading alerts (18:26)
Multifamily news (23:43)
NY office stories (29:47)
Industrial (42:19)
Shoutouts (45:14)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/16/2022 • 48 minutes, 43 seconds
157. Can CRE Weather Looming Geopolitical Storms? Outlook for Remainder of 2022
In this week’s episode, we provide an update on the energy crisis in Europe and discuss how looming geopolitical risks may impact the commercial real estate market. In a post-Labor Day check-in, we dive into our outlook for the remainder of 2022, sharing thoughts, data, and stories that cover hotels, multifamily, office, and retail. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• News out of Europe and geopolitical risks(0:23)
• CRE Outlook for Remainder of 2022, hotels (11:24)
• Multifamily outlook (15:06)
• Industrial(18:24)
• State of retail (19:21)
• Office overview (24:11)
• Office news from the week(28:03)
• Retail stories (37:45)
• Single-family rental market(40:56)
• Shoutouts (43:02)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/10/2022 • 45 minutes, 7 seconds
156. Is CRE the Cure for Summertime Blues?, Tick Tick of Office Distress, CMBS Delinquencies
In this week’s episode, we dive into the economic data that represents a “summertime blues” theme, and how commercial real estate is combatting the negativity. We cover our August CMBS delinquency report, providing an overview of what could happen to the closely-watched office sector. Then, we discuss news for hotels, multifamily, and large companies returning to the five-day work week. Listen here.
Episode Notes:
• Latest economic news (0:22)
• Housing market (12:04)
• Superbubble? (13:54)
• CMBS Delinquency Report (15:52)
• What's to come for office? (17:52)
• Hotel news(21:52)
• Return to five days in office(26:51)
• Office stories (31:35)
• Multifamily news and data (38:45)
• Shoutouts (46:23)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/2/2022 • 48 minutes, 24 seconds
155. Which Way is the Wind Blowing? Making Sense of a Choppy Market; CRE Value (D.U.S.T)
In this week’s episode, we review the risk-on or risk-off environment amid choppy news and try to make sense of the impact on CRE. We discuss the recency bias in the market, retail earnings, and companies shedding their office space. We also dive into large retail trading alerts and Professor Hendry shares a real estate value lesson on demand, utility, scarcity, and transferability. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
News that could impact Fed’s sentiment (0:23)
Recency bias (7:04)
Retail earnings (10:24)
Peloton and Lyft office news (16:30)
Trading alert: Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (17:48)
Trading Alert: Cineworld (20:21)
Office news (23:17)
CRE Value: D.U.S.T (26:17)
Green shoots (30:31)
Negative asset class stories (34:24)
Preview, secondary MSA rankings (38:36)
Shoutouts (40:33)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/26/2022 • 46 minutes, 22 seconds
154. Excess Inventory & Earnings, Thawing in CMBS Market?, Hotel Transaction Bounce-Back
In this week’s episode, we discuss the latest economic news to digest and how excess inventory is impacting retail earnings. Rob Jordan, Head of CMBS, provides a quick hit on the CMBS market and raises the question if there is temporary thawing in issuance. We also discuss hotel transactions, tech companies back to the office, and leasing updates. Listen here.
Episode Notes:
• News to digest this week (0:23)
• CMBS update: issuance, spreads, and pricing (4:18)
• Retail earnings (7:21)
• Retail stories (12:51)
• Office news (20:07)
• Leasing updates (22:50)
• Hotel trading alerts (29:59)
• Shoutouts (34:44)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/19/2022 • 38 minutes, 54 seconds
153. Time to Play Offense or Defense? CRE & Lending Update with Rachael Brown, The Bank of Tampa
In a special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we welcome Rachael Brown, Senior VP of Commercial Real Estate at The Bank of Tampa to discuss the current real estate lending market. We dive into the state of the Tampa Bay area, new developments to watch, the impact of economic conditions on CRE, and market sentiment amid volatility. Listen now.
Episode Notes:
• Background (0:23)
• Tampa’s compelling nature (2:05)
• Multifamily cap rates (9:25)
• Projects and developments underway in Tampa (15:49)
• Change in tone of the market; is it time to play offense or defense? (18:45)
• Did liquidity tighten this summer? (20:26)
• Impact of Fed decisions on FL economy (22:29)
• Parallels to the GFC (24:09)
• Bank of Tampa’s sweet spot (25:26)
• What keeps you up at night in CRE? (27:17)
• Market sentiment (28:17)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/14/2022 • 31 minutes
152. CRE Sentiment: Sunny Skies or Eye of the Storm?; Developments & Demand, CMBS Signs of Life
In this week’s episode, we share our results from our CRE Sentiment Survey, covering macroeconomic, CRE and CMBS, and business-specific takeaways and impacts on market participants. We discuss recent positive CRE and CMBS developments in terms of issuance, pricing, and property type news.
Episode Notes:
• Macro update: inflation, jobs, Fed comments (0:23)
• Earnings reports (7:34)
• State of the CMBS market (10:15)
• Macroeconomic sentiment (16:16)
• CRE sentiment (20:45)
• New office developments (26:33)
• Office renewals (30:48)
• Student housing demand (34:50)
• Retail headlines (39:30)
• Mall story (43:54)
• Shoutouts (45:48)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/12/2022 • 51 minutes, 45 seconds
151. Special Episode: Global CRE & Structured Finance Review Amid Market Volatility
In a special episode, we welcome back our global Trepp team to provide an update on the state of the structured finance markets around the world. We dive into our takeaways from two recent conferences, Global ABS 2022 and Structured Finance Vegas 2022. We also talk about the latest news in CRE, CMBS, and corporate CLOs.
European market update(0:28)
Conference vibe check: Global ABS and SFVegas (3:45)
Broad CRE update (7:02)
CMBS market news (12:55)
Corporate CLO market sentiment and data (16:04)
Investor sentiment (18:20)
Closing (22:54)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/9/2022 • 23 minutes, 24 seconds
150. Strong REIT Earnings, Positive Economic News, The CPI ‘FYI’
In this week’s episode, we welcome Research Director, Stephen Buschbom as we run through positive economic news, strong REIT earnings, and a new SAT word for Trepp’s 150th episode of the podcast. We also dive into our rent growth and CPI analysis, discuss the latest in office transactions, and touch on what is happening in the CMBS market in terms of issuance and delinquencies. Listen here.
Episode Notes:
• Positive macro update (0:24)
• Travel-related earnings (8:27)
• REIT Earnings (11:58)
• Office transactions (18:35)
• Multifamily REITs (23:36)
• Rent CPI analysis (30:19)
• CMBS delinquencies (34:47)
• CRE Sentiment preview (39:32)
• Shoutouts (41:51)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/5/2022 • 47 minutes, 50 seconds
149. Complacency Picking Up, No Signs of Disaster Yet; Cap Rates, Retail Earnings
In this week’s episode, we discuss the latest economic news, inflation numbers, retail earnings, and what this all means for commercial real estate fundamentals. We review recent office sales and leases, give an update on the industrial market, and dive into multifamily cap rates. Listen here. Take our CRE Sentiment Survey here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/trepp-2022-sentiment-survey
Episode Notes:
• CPI, GDP, Consumer Spending, and more (0:22)
• Retail earnings and their impact (6:29)
• Office sales (14:05)
• Office leases (27:35)
• Disaster vs. correction in the market (32:09)
• Industrial news (38:54)
• Multifamily stories (46:34)
• Cap rates (49:01)
• Shoutouts (53:05)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode, the team dives into economic data to digest. While recent earnings and geopolitical news helped ease frayed nerves in the market, residential issues are looming. We also dive into retail green shoots and sales transactions, news for the hotel sector, and positive and negative stories for office. Listen here.
Episode Notes:
Economic data to digest (0:22)
Brian Bailey, CRE Subject Matter Expert @ Atlanta Fed (14:21)
Retail green shoots (16:08)
Retail sales transactions (23:00)
Office stories (27:30)
Hotel sector update (37:39)
Shoutouts (42:47)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
7/22/2022 • 48 minutes, 11 seconds
147. Should We Panic Yet?: CRE Hits a Wall, Crabby Crabgrass, Earnings Disappoint
After a rough week, The TreppWire Podcast team tries to separate the real collateral damage from the noise. In this episode, we see deals drying up and crabgrass everywhere. We start by diving into the latest market sentiment, touch on bank earnings and what our team projected ahead of the reports, and then examine the news to watch across the property types. Listen here.
Episode Notes:
- Has the economic tide turned?(0:23)
- Market sentiment (8:07)
- Bank earnings projections (25:53)
- Layoffs and restructuring (28:00)
- Crabby crabgrass for office (31:28)
- Office green shoots (38:07)
- Durst fills vacancies (40:43)
- Starbucks closing due to crime (42:00)
- Green shoots in retail (44:48)
- Multifamily (46:43)
- Shoutouts (47:31)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
7/15/2022 • 53 minutes, 35 seconds
146. Will CRE Muddle Through? Delinquency Blip or Inflection Point, Office Vacancies
The market is on recession watch; are they making heads or tails of recent news? In this week’s episode, we ponder if commercial real estate will muddle through. We discuss Trepp’s latest CMBS delinquency report, noting an increase that could be a blip or a turning point in the recovery. We also dive into several office, retail, and hotel green shoot and crabgrass stories. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Investors on recession watch (0:23)
• CMBS delinquency report (7:28)
• Office vacancies (12:07)
• Crabgrass for office (16:31)
• Office positives (20:23)
• Retail update (27:50)
• Mall stories (30:37)
• Hotel mixed-green (32:49)
• Shoutouts (35:14)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
7/7/2022 • 41 minutes, 24 seconds
145. First-Half CRE Scorecard, High Watermark Transactions, Bank Loan Data
Get your whiteboards out. In this week’s episode, we give a half-year 2022 commercial real estate scorecard, providing an overview of where the market is and where it could be going. In office, it was a good week for transactions and lease renewals. We also discuss the latest bank loan delinquency and origination data. Listen now.
Episode Notes:
Economic outlook, markets looking for direction (0:25)
Layoff news and the impact (9:21)
First half-2022 recap and CRE scorecard (13:33)
CMBS and CMBX spreads YoY comparison (17:13)
Glass half-full case for the market (23:35)
Bank loan delinquency and origination data (36:28)
Office transactions and renewals (38:41)
Hotel green shoots (43:24)
Shoutouts (47:05)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
7/1/2022 • 50 minutes, 38 seconds
144. 5 Pillars of Office Health, Retail vs. Office, Where’s the Multifamily Risk?
In this week's episode, we discuss the five pillars that make up commercial real estate, comparing office health to what we have seen in the past for the retail market. We also talk through the latest green shoot and crabgrass headlines for both sectors. Then, looking at the multifamily market, we give an overview of the events that could pose potential risks for the market in the future. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Market news (0:24)
• Retail green shoots (9:42)
• Office: impact of layoffs, rescinded offers(16:43)
• Green shoots in the office market (21:33)
• 5 pillars that make up CRE (24:01)
• Crabgrass headlines (30:48)
• Multifamily: rent stabilization (34:39)
• Apartment conversions (36:15)
• Deal of the week (38:02)
• Shoutouts (45:38)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
6/24/2022 • 49 minutes, 19 seconds
143. Unpacking The Fed's Decision; CREFC Sentiment; Making Sense Of The Gloom & Doom
In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, the team unpacks the Fed's rate-hike decision and shares key takeaways from CREFC's conference in NYC. We highlight changes in cap rates, upcoming CMBS maturities, and the current market sentiment. Lastly, we dive into retail, office, and mall news before discussing Father’s Day plans.
Episode Notes: Market Updates (00:49) Lenders and borrowers (9:47) CREFC Round-up (14:55) Consumer Sentiment (28:14) Greenshoots (37:14) Crabgrass (42:01) Deal of the Week (44:18)Shoutouts (45:44)
6/15/2022 • 49 minutes, 7 seconds
142. Office? Apocalypse Not, Has Inflation Peaked? and Key Trading Alerts
In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into the latest on inflation, as we await the consumer inflation numbers that come out Friday morning. We also dive into some office crabgrass and greenshoots and we're bringing back the "deal of the week." We then touch on hotel stories and some retail alerts. Tune in now.
6/9/2022 • 48 minutes, 31 seconds
141. Resurgence of the Office Debate, CMBS 123, Retail Credit News
In this week’s episode, we dive into bearish comments from Jamie Dimon, Fed announcements, and inflation data. We give a "CMBS 123," hitting on primary market news, spread movement, and changes in delinquency rates. We discuss Elon Musk’s comments about the return to work and then examine other office news. In noteworthy CRE stories, we touch on crabgrass and green shoots for shopping centers, large retail loans, food and beverage operators, and office vacancies. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Market update (0:21)
• CMBS spread movement (6:47)
• Delinquency rate (14:29)
• Retail (19:21)
• Retail credit stories (24:27)
• Return to office? Elon Musk's take (28:07)
• Office stories (31)
• Shoutouts
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
6/4/2022 • 46 minutes, 33 seconds
140. Office: Death by a Thousand Cuts?, Filet Mignon & SASB Deals, Retail Mixed-Bag
In this week's episode, we examine the mixed-bag of retail earnings reports and what it means for the market. We talk about office maturities, stories focused on "vacate and terminate," and the sentiment that the office market may be facing "death by a thousand cuts." Finally, we dive into single-asset, single-borrower transactions and explain the trends seen with those CMBS deals. We also find out what Lonnie would do if he wasn’t in CRE and discuss what he would name his startup company...
Episode Notes:
• Stocks, economy, market news (0:23)
• Thing 1 & thing 2 in the market (5:25)
• Mixed bag of retail earnings (8:52)
• ICSC retail conference sentiment, interview with Stephanie Cegielski (16:58)
• Retail stories (22:47)
• Office maturities (28:07)
• Office crabgrass (34:20)
• Trading Alert: NY office loan extension (41:46)
• Single-asset, single-borrower issuance (43:13)
• Shoutouts (49:08)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/27/2022 • 53 minutes, 52 seconds
139. Despite Dismal Retail Earnings, Green Shoots in CRE and CMBS
In this week's episode, we dive into the latest on consumer sentiment, which declined in early May to the lowest since 2011 as persistent concerns over inflation dimmed Americans' views on the economy. We also examine retail earnings reports, showing a slump in many major retail stores, yet a top performance from home improvement stores. In weekly CRE news, we review negative office stories and hotel transactions.
5/20/2022 • 55 minutes, 38 seconds
137. A Shifting CRE Landscape & Investment Insights with Carly Tripp, Global CIO, Nuveen Real Estate
In a special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we welcome Carly Tripp, Global Chief Investment Officer and Head of Real Estate Investments at Nuveen Real Estate. Carly speaks with the team about the shifting commercial real estate landscape, diving into the impact of the current macroeconomic climate and how the pandemic changed the market. We also discuss the heavily-debated office sector, retail resiliency, and surprises in CRE.
Episode Notes:
Carly Tripp background/overview (0:54)
Interest rates and inflation, impact on CRE (3:51)
Are parts of CRE more resilient to passing costs? (7:08)
Rental housing (10:16)
The velocity of CRE & investment (12:06)
CRE fundamentals: the office market (14:22)
Hotel volatility (18:17)
Strong performers, alternative asset classes (20:51)
Retail resiliency (23:46)
What keeps us up at night: the macro backdrop (26:08)
Vibe check (29:26)
Nuveen RealAccess report (30:33)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
• Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
• LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
• Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/12/2022 • 31 minutes, 50 seconds
138. CRE Lender Sentiment and Sectors to Watch, Hot Industrial Market or Plateau?, Office Woes
In this week’s episode, we dive into the latest market reactions; crypto panic, inflation gauges, and Fed announcements. We also share insights and market sentiment from our lending client symposium, featuring takeaways from industry experts at the Mortgage Bankers Association and the Atlanta Federal Reserve. In weekly CRE news, we dive into more negative stories for office, the hot or not industrial market, and retail headlines.
Episode Notes:
• Market headwinds (0:43)
• Stocks that hit us over last few months (5:45)
• Insights: Brian Bailey, Atlanta Fed (7:14)
• Regulation update, Mike Flood, MBA (15:03)
• Lending and originations sentiment (18:18)
• Office news this week (20:42)
• Industrial market update(31:24)
• Shoutouts (40:00)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/11/2022 • 45 minutes, 16 seconds
136. How Recent Tech Earnings Indicate a Market Top for CRE; Delinquency, Amazon, and The Fed
In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, the team discusses recent tech earnings, inflation, big-box retail, and office news. Next, we dive into the delinquency rate, interest-only bonds, and hotel transactions. Then we talk about big tech giant Amazon and the Metaverse. Stick around to hear a sneak peek as we shed light on the multifamily market.
Episode Notes:
Market Overview (0:40)
Inflation- The Fed (4:28)
Big Tech- Amazon/Meta (10:05)
Metaverse (18:33)
CMBS Delinquency Rate (20:11)
Interest Only Bonds (24:25)
Office News (29:03)
Retail Stories (38:40)
Hotel Transactions (46:30)
Multifamily Market Sneak Peak (49:38)
Shoutouts (49:47)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
• Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
• LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
• Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/6/2022 • 55 minutes, 40 seconds
135. Tech Earnings Impact on CRE, Multifamily Financials, Offices Downsizing
There was a mixed bag of tech earnings this week, so we dive into some of the headlines and the impact on commercial real estate. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we also cover recent stories about offices downsizing and record property transactions. We then follow up on our recent multifamily net operating income teaser, sharing the headlines that came from preliminary income, revenue, and expense data.
Episode Notes:
Investor reaction to stock selloff (0:23)
Tech earnings, impact on CRE (9:02)
Office crabgrass (18:51)
Green shoots for office (23:35)
Blackstone headlines (29:09)
Multifamily NOI report(33:27)
Multifamily story – record price (41:13)
Retail hits: Kohl's bids (42:27)
Shoutouts (48:32)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
• Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
• LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
• Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/28/2022 • 54 minutes, 56 seconds
134. Higher Interest Rates Fail to Cool Off Hot CRE Markets; Office, Retail & Student Housing Deals
In this week’s episode, we analyze the mixed bag of economic news, discussing CRE sentiment and the CMBS data to watch. In CRE property type news, we cover stories for office properties across the country, including space being taken off the market, new leases signed, transfers to mortgage lenders, and luxury office purchases. We then look at important headlines for retail, life science, hotels, and student housing. Listen now.
Episode Notes:
Market uncertainty (0:25)
CRE sentiment (6:42)
CMBS spreads and issuance (7:42)
Green shoots for office (12:38)
NYC office stories (15:28)
Crabgrass in office sector (17:05)
Bad news for Chicago (19:43)
‘Zombie’ office space in Cleveland (21:43)
Life science interest (24:10)
Brokers start your engine (26:53)
CMBX mall loan news (28:27)
Retail stories (31:05)
Student housing deals and acquisitions (33:04)
Quick hits for hotels (39:30)
Shoutouts (43:51)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
• Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
• LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
• Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/23/2022 • 50 minutes, 33 seconds
133. CRE Lending with Matthew Osborne, Eastern Bank: Life-Science Growth; Pandemic Look Back
In a special guest episode, Matthew Osborne, Executive Vice President, Senior Commercial Banking Officer with Eastern Bank joins the team to dive into the world of commercial real estate lending. We discuss the booming life sciences asset class in Boston, challenges for lenders and real estate developers, the intrigue of single-family rental properties, and competitiveness in the lending landscape. Matt also walks through what he saw on the front lines of lending during COVID-19 vs. past recessions, and how unprecedented government support impacted the playbook.
Episode Notes:
Intro (0:39)
Life-science asset class in Boston (3:10)
Challenges in the Boston market (8:39)
Considerations for lenders (11:01)
Self-storage sector (14:40)
Pandemic impact vs. past recessions (17:13)
Froth in the market (20:50)
Competitive lending landscape (25:04)
Intriguing property types: single-family rentals (26:24)
Shoutouts (32:52)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
• Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
• LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
• Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/20/2022 • 38 minutes, 2 seconds
132. Brokers Start Your Engines, Office Sales; Multifamily NOI Teaser; Retail Review
In this week’s episode, we dive into what the CPI and PPI numbers mean for the market and cover recent bank, retail, and airline earnings. In a segment called “brokers start your engines,” we examine the latest office sales. We then take a walk down memory lane, reporting on new data for properties we’ve been watching over the years. Finally, we give a teaser for our multifamily net operating income analysis.
Episode Notes:
• Inflation, CPI, PPI (0:22)
• Bank and retail earnings (8:47)
• Delta earnings (14:17)
• Office stories and preliminary maturity data (16:20)
• Brokers start your engines: sales (23:46)
• Walk down memory lane: CMBS loan news (28:15)
• Twitter and Elon Musk, CMBS headquarters (34:44)
• Retail store closures decline and increased theft (38:16)
• Crabgrass and green shoots for retail (42:17)
• Multifamily financials report (48:28)
• Shoutouts (54:26)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
• Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
• LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
• Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode, Andrew Jacobs shares a CMBS market update, highlighting special servicing rates, recent loan losses, and issuance numbers. Then, we discuss operators shedding retail assets, industrial interest, and office occupancy news. We close with an update on the increased demand in the single-family rental market. Stick around to hear the team talk MLB and Masters opening day, and Tiger Woods' return
Episode Notes:
• Economic news (0:23)
• Special servicing rates (7:00)
• March loan losses (10:10)
• Q1 CMBS issuance (12;31)
• Westfield shedding US malls (13:45)
• Retail crabgrass (15:51)
• Positive retail (21:29)
• Industrial news (22:45)
• Office occupancy (27:25)
• Single-Family Rentals (32:58)
• Apartment converted to hotel(37:46)
• Shoutouts (39:59)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
• Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
• LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
• Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/7/2022 • 42 minutes, 56 seconds
130. Bank Loans to Watch, CRE Impact of Rising Rates, Sneak Peek at Delinquencies
Matt Anderson, Managing Director at Trepp, joins the team in this week's episode to talk all things inflation, interest rates, and investment returns. We also discuss the possible yield curve inversion, preliminary bank CRE loan and CMBS delinquency numbers, and stories in the office and lodging sectors. Stick around to hear our coverage of the percentage of bank loans that are on the watchlist.
Episode Notes:
Market data to digest (0:27)
Green shoots in CMBS (6:10)
Is the curve inverted? (13:07)
What have interest rate spikes done to CRE historically? (15:23)
Are we in a euphoric period? (21:24)
Preliminary CMBS delinquencies (26:14)
Lodging quick hits (29:36)
Office news (34:47)
Bank loan delinquencies (37:31)
Green shoots (41:20)
Shoutouts (45:00)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/2/2022 • 50 minutes, 21 seconds
129. Digesting Rising Interest Rates, Cap Rates, and Liquidity
In this week’s episode, the team tries to make sense of rising interest rates, cap rates, and liquidity. Diving into the CRE property types, we discuss hotel comps, retail store closures, and multifamily transactions. We also review a shopping mall Trading Alert that serves as an example of a CMBS "waterfall."
Episode Notes:
What's behind the Treasury moves? (0:50)
Market impact on borrowers and the CRE industry (5:37)
Impact on cap rates (9:38)
Chicago hotel comps (12:28)
Hotel valuation drops (14:57)
Arizona Cardinals lodging move (18:14)
Retail store closures (22:12)
Vermont shopping mall, CMBS waterfall (23:25)
Multifamily transactions (28:44)
What's to come for office? (31:14)
Shoutouts (37:34)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
3/24/2022 • 43 minutes, 30 seconds
128. State of CRE Lending, Office Mixed Greens, Fed Announcement
The markets have had a lot to react to this week, but most of the focus was on digesting the Fed announcement. In this episode, we reflect on the news and how it can impact real estate and then cover the state of the CRE lending market. We also dive into mixed headlines (or greens) for the office, retail, and multifamily markets. Stick around to hear our March Madness picks.
Episode Notes:
• Market reactions (0:23)
• Uncertainty in equity markets (8:45)
• Impact on leveraged loans (12:23)
• State of the CRE lending market(13:50)
• Office crabgrass and mixed greens (29:21)
• Surprising retail news (36:13)
• Multifamily headlines (37:20)
• Shoutouts (42:31)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode, we examine the latest economic news including the jobs report, potential interest rate hikes, and oil prices. Then, we discuss the impact of inflation on consumer behavior and CRE. We also review property comps across office, retail, and hotels and give an update on how CMBS loans have performed pre-and post-risk retention
Episode Notes:
• Interest rate hikes and uncertainties (1:00)
• Impact of inflation on consumer behavior (9:31)
• CMBS deals pulled or paused? (14:51)
• Risk retention loan performance (20:14)
• Office green shoots (28:58)
• Hotels: positive and negative (35:09)
• Retail (39:20)
• Shoutouts
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
3/11/2022 • 47 minutes, 14 seconds
126. Array of CMBS News, Office, Retail, and Industrial CRE Happenings
In this week’s episode, we reflect on the CMBS market, starting with the news that two commercial mortgage bonds were put on hold amid market weakness. Then, we talk about new issue pricing and the latest delinquency rates across the property types. We also highlight the top headlines in the retail, industrial, and office CRE sectors.
Episode Notes:
• Takeaways from lack of market panic (0:23)
• Meaningful financial data this week (4:24)
• Two CMBS deals pulled (7:43)
• New issue pricing (12:59)
• CMBS delinquencies shows health (15:19)
• Positive retail earnings (20:10)
• Amazon brick & mortar and fulfillment center news (26:59)
• Industrial in California(29:43)
• Why can’t all malls have happy endings? LA Rams new practice facility (32:11)
• Retail trading alert (35:48)
• Office traffic(37:43)
• Negative office news in St. Louis (42:57)
• MLB opening day (44:56)
• Shoutouts (47:51)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
3/4/2022 • 51 minutes, 52 seconds
124. Sobering Russia/Ukraine News Yet to Impact CRE, Appeal of Defeasances, Property Sales
This week, we reflect on the sobering news out of Eastern Europe, noting the world’s reaction and that it has yet to impact the commercial real estate market in terms of lending and spreads. In this week’s episode, we talk about the state of CRE, dive into some retail earnings, and then turn to student housing, mall, and RV park news. We close with an overview of the appeal of defeasances.
Episode Notes:
Market update (0:25)
The CRE side of latest market news (3:50)
Trucker demonstrations (6:30)
Macy's, TJ Maxx earnings (10:34)
Home Depot, Lowes earnings and drive-thrus (15:04)
Student housing stories (19:04)
Mall sales and a sad comp (23:21)
RV park story (29:02)
CMBS defeasances, why are they appealing? (31:17)
Shoutouts (37:39)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
2/25/2022 • 41 minutes, 54 seconds
125. Special Episode: How the War in Ukraine Could Impact Europe, A CRE & Structured Finance Update
In a special European edition of The TreppWire Podcast, Andrew Jacobs, Head of Structured Finance speaks to Vivek-Anand Dattani, Global Head of Structured Sales, and Andrew McClymont, Structured Finance Analyst, about the state of the European markets. We dive into what is happening amid the war in Eastern Europe and examine the data and headlines in the CRE, CMBS, and CLO markets at the end of 2021 and into the start of 2022. Stay tuned for our week-in-review later this week.
Episode Notes:
- Crisis in Ukraine: What is happening in Eastern Europe? (0:49)
- Impact on CRE, CMBS, and CLO markets (4:09)
- Positivity in the European CRE market (8:05)
- European stocks and bonds (9:26)
- Post-Brexit, is the UK CMBS market restarting? (10:47)
- EU CMBS Year-in-Review (12:50)
- ESG in European CMBS (17:30)
- Corporate CLO Year-in-Review (18:31)
- CRE CLO update (21:50)
- London vibe check (23:18)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode, we cover record-breaking deals across multiple commercial real estate property types, many of which offer new benchmarks. We look at the industrial sector, noting several transactions and trends from bank CRE data. Then, we turn to the Fed’s latest stress testing scenarios, offer musings from the MBA conference, and dive into hotel and Airbnb earnings.
Episode Notes:
Inflation update (0:47)
Geopolitical: Russia, Ukraine news (5:00)
Big week for industrial deals (7:26)
Industrial trends in bank data (13:19)
Big deals across property types (15:42)
Fed stress testing scenarios (18:46)
MBA CREF22 takeaways (25:10)
Hotel earnings (29:31)
Airbnb (31:37)
Shoutouts (36:36)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
2/18/2022 • 40 minutes, 33 seconds
122. Making Sense of Inflation & CRE, Hotel Headwinds, Office Moves, Multifamily Benchmarks
Inflation is the big focus right now, so how likely is it that CRE businesses absorb higher costs vs. passing them on? In this week’s episode, we talk about the inflation number and what it means for CRE, then we dive into Super Bowl hotel headwinds, a Houston office opportunity, and news for the beleaguered American Dream Mall. We also run through the hotel stories, office movies, and multifamily transactions for benchmarking.
Episode Notes:
• Inflation highest in years (0:25)
• Will CRE property owners absorb higher costs? (3:05)
• Inflation challenges on the apartment side (4:49)
• Super bowl hotel headwinds (7:12)
• Hotel stories (11:03)
• Houston office opportunity (15:14)
• Office moves from Boston to NYC (19:53)
• American Dream Mall news (22:40)
• Multifamily transactions for benchmarks (26:25)
• Shoutouts (30:53)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
2/11/2022 • 38 minutes, 5 seconds
121. Mixed-Bag of Office News in US Cities, CMBS vs. Bank CRE Loan Performance
In this week's episode, we review recent CMBS and bank CRE loan performance, examining delinquencies across property types. Then, in the latest CRE news, we discuss positive and negative office stories in Houston, Omaha, and St. Louis, dive into mall REIT, PREIT's sales and several other mall stories, and discuss some long-term viability news for the San Francisco market.
Episode Notes:
Market activity (0:50)
Spotify news (5:10)
CMBS delinquency rate (9:01)
Bank loan performance data (12:33)
Office stories: positive news in Houston (16:11)
Texas real estate sentiment (19:32)
Office green shoot in Omaha (24:24)
Crabgrass in St. Louis (26:09)
PREIT & mall news (30:55)
San Francisco news: long-term viability (36:49)
Georgia mall Trading Alert (41:19)
Multifamily quick hit (43:23)
Shoutouts (46:43)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In a special guest episode, we welcome Lauren Thomas, CNBC Retail and Real Estate Reporter to give the retail rundown, sharing the latest news in retail real estate. Lauren dives into her breaking Peloton production news, gives an update on the state of Kohl’s, Amazon, and other department stores, and shares predictions for first-quarter retail earnings.
Episode Notes:
Background (0:23)
Peloton news (2:51)
Is Peloton a going concern problem? (10:30)
Kohl’s activity (12:40)
Great Q4 retail earnings, how much was e-commerce? (20:01)
Amazon update: physical stores (25:33)
Does separating e-commerce and brick-and-mortar put pressure on store closures? (28:10)
What's to come for store closures (31:22)
Sam Zell comments: retail vs. office (34:00)
Predictions for Q1 retail earnings (35:22)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
2/2/2022 • 38 minutes, 46 seconds
119. Market Volatility & CRE, Mall Loan Defeasances, Hotel Distress
The markets have been on a wild ride as investors digested news this week, but how does the volatility impact CRE? In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into what matters for CRE and CMBS participants. Then, we discuss several big stories: large retail loan defeasances which represent a positive sign for CMBS investors, new hotel issuance, and our distressed hotel analysis. We close by sharing our predictions ahead of the NFL playoffs.
Episode Notes:
How does market volatility impact CRE? (0:53)
CMBS market performance (8:34)
Takeaways for non-CMBS investors (16:36)
Mall loan defeasances – positive signs for retail (18:13)
Hotel distress and losses (28:02)
Shoutouts (34:49)
NFL predictions (35:45)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/28/2022 • 40 minutes, 6 seconds
118. Risk & Reward of Debt vs. Equity with Pasquale Cardone II, PC2 Capital
In this week’s episode, Pasquale Cardone II, founder of PC2 Capital joins the team to discuss the risk and reward of debt vs. equity in the commercial real estate space... given what we have seen with market, business cycle, and asset type risk. We dive into REIT equity vs. CMBS credit, predictions for interest rates and property types, contrarian market views, and property sector divergence.
Episode Notes:
Market predictions (0:52)
Volatility: Public equity REITs vs. CMBS debt (4:00)
Bullishness on spreads (8:06)
Private equity’s impact (12:53)
How rising rates play into REIT performance (14:25)
Office sector divergence (17:30)
What’s next for the b & c office operator? (19:25)
Retail in 2022 (22:17)
Interest in hotels (27:15)
Contrarian views (31:37)
Shoutouts (36:55)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/21/2022 • 39 minutes, 18 seconds
117. Unpleasant CRE Surprises, Hotel & Office Happenings, CREFC Confidential
For the last few days, while attending the CREFC conference, Manus commented that the prevailing sentiment for 2022 is that the year will look like 2021... but also noted similarities to 2005. So the question is, how likely is it that?
In this week’s episode, we go back and forth on this sentiment and highlight takeaways from the conference. Then, we dive into some unpleasant surprises in CRE and talk through positive stories for office and news in the hotel market.
Episode Notes
Economic update (0:29)
Prevailing CRE sentiment from CREFC (10:47)
Unpleasant surprises in CRE (25:20)
NY hotel valuation reduction (26:40)
CA property sold to pay off at par (28:23)
CA pulls back on office leases (29:21)
Hotel news (33:16)
Positive office headlines (38:12)
Shoutouts (44:38)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/14/2022 • 50 minutes, 57 seconds
116. Rare Uptick in Delinquencies, Big Week for Office News, Retail Closures
Trepp reported that for the first time in 18 months, the CMBS delinquency rate increased, which is largely attributed to several new and significant office loans going delinquent. In this week’s episode, we dive into the rare uptick, highlight several important office stories, review the Fed minutes, and examine recent store closures for Macy’s, Bed Bath & Beyond, and the like.
Episode Notes:
Fed minutes (0:43)
Delinquency report (11:12)
Office stories (17:34)
Office crabgrass (23:48)
Green shoot news (25:25)
Retail store closures (26:23)
Retail green shoot with some caveats(29:45)
Shoutouts (34:21)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
1/7/2022 • 40 minutes, 41 seconds
115. Looking into the CRE Crystal Ball: 2022 Predictions & Resolutions
This year, we’ve covered the changes in the commercial real estate and macroeconomic markets as the world tried to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. In this week’s episode, we take a crystal ball approach, sharing our predictions for the economy and society in 2022 and then for each of the major CRE property types. Happy New Year to all our listeners!
Episode Notes:
• Macro predictions and state of the market (0:40)
• Societal predictions (8:02)
• Impact on CRE (13:12)
• Office predictions (14:31)
• Chicago office news (22:24)
• Lodging predictions (27:31)
• Predictions for retail (33:31)
• What happens to the malls that do die? (38:22)
• CMBX 6 predictions (41:04)
• Multifamily (42:28)
• CRE CLOs (45:13)
• Shoutouts (48:36)
• Resolutions (49:53)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/30/2021 • 54 minutes, 53 seconds
114. Scary Parallels of Retail & Office, Mall Comps, Alternative Asset Classes
In this week’s episode, Lonnie Hendry joins to discuss scary parallels in the retail and office sectors and to share an update on some alternative real estate asset classes. We also dive into mall comps, a parade of good news for hotels, and discuss holiday parties in the Metaverse... Happy Holidays to all!
Omicron news and market update (0:24)
Parallels between retail and office (6:23)
Latest office stories (11:53)
Must-know office news (16:56)
Metaverse holiday parties (19:27)
Alternative asset classes (22:23)
Big retail green shoot: movie theaters (27:09)
Mall comps (25:59)
How would you value a movie studio? Dreamworks news (31:57)
Parade of good news for hotels (36:50)
Self-storage update (39:51)
Shoutouts (43:43)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/22/2021 • 48 minutes, 37 seconds
113. Health Check on the Heavily-Watched Retail, Office, & Lodging Sectors
In this week’s episode, we look at some of the most talked-about commercial real estate sectors throughout the pandemic: retail, office, and lodging. We dive into the latest macro news impacting these sectors and then turn to some key CMBS and CRE headlines to note. We also ask listeners to send us their predictions for the markets and CRE in 2022 for an upcoming episode. Send us your thoughts to podcast@trepp.com.
Episode Notes:
• Market movement (0:38)
• Retail headlines (7:30)
• Office news (18:42)
• Green shoots for office (21:25)
• Changes to return to office (23:22)
• Hotel update and top stories (27:59)
• Shoutouts (33:49)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/17/2021 • 35 minutes, 59 seconds
112. Post-COVID Property Valuations, Hotel Transactions, Office Occupancy
In this week’s episode, we look at the hospitality transaction market which has been busy recently, with the sales providing insight into post-COVID valuations. Then, we turn to the office sector where we see signs of occupancy rebounding and highlight several important Trading Alerts. Lastly, we share some positive and negative retail news and dive into our latest property value analysis.
Episode Notes:
Omicron news and Fed update (0:21)
Hotel transactions (5:10)
Office occupancy and headlines (12:13)
Shorting office? Positive stories (23:57)
Deed-in-lieu for large office loan (30:01)
Retail green shoot and crabgrass (34:49)
Property values analysis: https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/commercial-property-values-pain-retail-catches-breath(38:27)
Shoutouts (40:22)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/10/2021 • 44 minutes, 40 seconds
111. Hotel Loan Cures, Mixed Office News, Green Shoots in the Metaverse
In this week’s episode, we discuss significant market swings and what is driving the rebound. Our theme this week revolves around several large cures in the hotel market. We also note some major office headlines and explain what is going on in the metaverse... In CMBS, we break down the latest delinquency numbers and dive into the issuance number which sets a post-GFC record. Listen here.
Episode Notes:
• Market swing, what is dominating the rebound (0:21)
• Breaking down the delinquency report (7:48)
• Issuance sets post-GFC issuance (14:30)
• Hotel green shoots and loan cures (21:47)
• CMBX 7 Chicago loan cured (25:55)
• More hotel cures (31:00)
• Office foot traffic (32:51)
• Office headlines (37:55)
• Digital land in the metaverse (41:10)
• Life insurance commercial mortgage returns(44:52)
• Shoutouts and Miami podcast (46:35)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
12/2/2021 • 48 minutes, 43 seconds
110. Black Friday Bonanza, Retail Worries; What's Weighing on the Markets?
As Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and the holiday season approach The TreppWire Podcast team thought it was time to dive into the retail market. In this week’s episode, we analyze what is weighing on the economic markets right now, then we turn to our “Black Friday” special where we review retail earnings, worries, and CMBS Trading Alerts. We highlight a few other interesting stories for multifamily and hotels and close by sharing what we are thankful for this season compared to last season (episode 48 for reference). Happy Thanksgiving!
Episode Notes:
Economic Update (0:20)
What is weighing the markets down right now?(0:55)
Retail earnings and headwinds (5:35)
Trading Alerts: bond prices moved for particular deals (24:38)
Other property type headlines (30:45)
Reflecting on last year (37:55)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/23/2021 • 43 minutes, 54 seconds
109. Retail Renaissance or False Start? “Next Big Short” CMBX 6 Update, Office Green Shoots
For every negative headline this week there seemed to be a positive. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into the green shoots and crabgrass focusing on trends in retail earnings, an update on the retail-heavy CMBX indices, and positive signs for the office market. We also review the increased demand in the single-family rental market.
Episode Notes:
• Economic news (0:20)
• Mall revival and retail earnings (0:55)
• Retail-heavy CMBX 6 and 7 update (10:33)
• Green shoots in retail headlines (15:39)
• CVS closures (18:38)
• Office crabgrass (21:17)
• Greenshoots (29:17)
• Must-Know of the Week (31:46)
• Single-family rental demand growth (33:15)
• Shoutouts (35:04)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/19/2021 • 39 minutes, 58 seconds
108. Navigating Challenges in CRE: Business Workouts & Receiverships with Douglas Wilson Companies
In this week’s episode, we welcome Douglas Wilson, CEO and Chairman of Douglas Wilson Companies, to discuss challenges in commercial real estate and how to navigate them. We dive into what it means to be a receiver, the four types of receiverships, and compare financial crises over time. We also discuss the health and outlook for different property sectors and finally, touch on what may be the next tipping point of concern for the market. Listen now.
Episode Notes:
What does it mean to be a receiver? (4:14)
Four types of receiverships (6:35)
How often does the alignment get unaligned? (8:00)
No two crises are the same: comparing downturns (10:07)
Strategies when dealing with different lenders and players (13:50)
Changes since COVID, market liquidity (16:15)
Different property sectors – health & outlook (23:25)
Fallout from China (26:30)
Next tipping point of concern (28:25)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode, our team weighs in on the latest mixed economic data and covers the falling CMBS delinquency rate that hit a new milestone in the pandemic era. We also discuss green shoot stories for office, our Deal of the Week, and recent must-know activity in the hotel market.
Stick around as we talk luxury handbags and try to wrap our heads around NFT McRibs and metaverse sneakers.
Episode Notes:
• Mixed round of economic data (0:20)
• CMBS delinquency rate hits new milestone (6:27)
• Office green shoots with some crabgrass (11:19)
• Deal of the Week: Houston office (15:05)
• Must-Know: Amazon in Jersey City (16:54)
• Bankruptcy Trading Alert (18:06)
• Activity in the hotel sector (22:16)
• Green shoots and new developments (27:00)
• Retail data points (28:43)
• Shoutouts + NFT McRibs and MetaVerse Sneakers (34:14)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
11/5/2021 • 37 minutes, 59 seconds
106. Signs of Life in Chicago Office, Life Science Sector on Fire, Quarterly Data Review
In this week’s episode, Orest Mandzy, Managing Editor of CRE Direct joins to discuss our Quarterly Data Review, a recap of the top CRE and CMBS data from the quarter. We also talk about a big Trading Alert that represents a positive for the Chicago office market, discuss the health sciences sector that is heating up, and cover mall loan liquidations.
Download the Quarterly Data Review here: https://www.trepp.com/q3-2021-quarterly-data-review
Episode Notes:
Economic news, spending bill (0:25)
Quarterly Data Review: CMBS rankings and risk retention 101 (6:29)
Update on 2017 loan that cured (17:26)
Shopping mall liquidations/resolutions (19:24)
Trading Alert: Chicago Office Under Contract – Sale Price 80% Higher Than Most Recent Value (22:37)
Health sciences heating up (31:10)
Deals of the Week (35:43)
Shoutouts (39:56)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/29/2021 • 45 minutes, 8 seconds
105. Uptick in Hotel Activity, Scariest Macro Issues, Near-Record Issuance Levels
Near term market outlook is positive but elevated prices, supply chain problems, a shortage of workers, and the Delta Variant are creating uncertainty. In this week's episode, we discuss the scariest macroeconomic issues in terms of impact on commercial real estate. Darren King, Trepp’s Head of CMBS joins us to discuss the almost-record CMBS issuance and explains what is happening in the conduit market. We then dive into the latest hotel activity stories and review hotel losses from the last decade.
Episode Notes:
Market news (0:25)
What is the scariest macro issue for CRE? (5:40)
CMBS and CRE CLO issuance update (13:43)
What can supply the conduit pipeline going forward (18:30)
An uptick in hotel activity (24:06)
Hotel losses in the last decade (34:37)
Shoutouts (43:00)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/22/2021 • 47 minutes, 5 seconds
104. Wave of Office Downsizings, Mall Loan Extensions, Bank Earnings
In this week's episode, we go behind the headlines of the latest bank earnings and economic news. In commercial real estate and CMBS, we dive into a wave of negative office downsizing stories, several retail Trading Alerts about mall loan extensions, and some office sales and signings. Tune in for our discussion of the death of the fun-sized candy bar.
Episode Notes:
Fed tapering, economic update (0:20)
Office loans with expiring leases (8:14)
Office crabgrass: downsizings (10:14)
Alarming Chicago office news (16:08)
Office green shoots, sales & signings, positive signs in Atlanta (18:15)
Price moving event: mall loan extension (23:53)
Retail and hotel trading alerts (29:45)
Bank Earnings, behind the headlines (35:20)
Shoutouts (41:17)
Halloween 2021 (42:38)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/16/2021 • 45 minutes, 23 seconds
103. Making Sense of D.C. & CRE with Mike Flood, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
In this episode, we welcome back special guest, Mike Flood, Senior Vice President of Commercial/Multifamily Policy and Member Engagement at the Mortgage Bankers Association to give us a round-up of the latest regulations and how they currently are impacting (and potentially will impact) commercial real estate. We discuss taxes, infrastructure, and the debt ceiling, and then dive into the multifamily sector, banking areas to watch, and insurance lending and ESG. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
Taxes, infrastructure, and the debt ceiling (0:45)
Spending Bill: impact on CRE (6:45)
Multifamily sector (15:01)
Revision of GSE conservatorship capital framework (20:54)
HUD and FFB: Affordable housing (27:03)
Banking areas to watch (30:41)
Climate-related issues for insurers (34:45)
ESG lending (38:31)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/7/2021 • 42 minutes, 3 seconds
102. Markets in Turmoil, CRE Standing Strong
While the rest of the economy drops with signs of turmoil this week, the commercial real estate market has been holding strong. In this week’s episode, we discuss inflation and supply chain issues impacting the markets. Then, we dive into some positive signs for CRE in terms of CMBS and bank loan delinquencies, and the latest office, retail, and hotel news. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Inflation and supply chain issues (0:18)
• CMBS delinquency rates(6:54)
• Bank loan delinquencies and risk ratings (8:42)
• Office green shoots(11:02)
• Return to office changes (15:09)
• Must-know news (18:09)
• Positive retail news (19:24)
• Hotel stories (23:34)
• Slice of Life: A “gratuitously obnoxious” story (28:05)
• Shoutouts (31:12)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
10/1/2021 • 34 minutes, 47 seconds
101. Misallocation of Funds, Evergrande & the Economy, Office Headwinds, Rental Rates 101
In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss the Evergrande news, comparing what we are seeing now to the Great Financial Crisis. We dive into a headline story that our own TreppWire team uncovered involving a misallocation of $12 million to CMBS bondholders. Professor Lonnie Hendry joins to give his office market predictions and share a rental rates 101 segment. Finally, what happens in Vegas doesn’t stay in Vegas, tune in to hear Manus’ takeaways from a recent trip.
Episode Notes:
• Evergrande and economic update (0:47)
• Comparison to the GFC and Lehman (7:26)
• Misallocation of funds / CMBS 101 (13:05)
• Office green shoots (22:36)
• Professor Hendry’s predictions: headwinds for office (25:01)
• Rental rates 101 / office lease analysis (29:43)
• Should-know office story (35:13)
• Shoutouts (40:52)
• Vegas vibe check (43:10)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/24/2021 • 47 minutes, 23 seconds
100. CRE’s Wild Ride, Business Travel Blues, Office Return Rollbacks, and Retail Must-Knows
The 100th episode of The TreppWire Podcast is here! Thank you to our listeners who have been along for the journey. In the milestone episode, we review stats that have taken CRE on a wild ride: COVID cases, travel numbers, unemployment, occupancy levels, and loan delinquencies. Then, we dive into this week’s news about business travel, real estate regulations, retail must-knows, and the return to the office. Stay tuned to see how you can win a pair of “iEars.”
Episode Notes:
100th episode (0:21)
CRE’s wild ride throughout the pandemic: the numbers (4:52)
This week’s news (10:00)
Hotels, business travel (15:18)
Return to office updates (20:13)
Office green shoots: Must-Know of the Week (21:45)
Retail: must-know news for brokers and CMBX 6 longs and shorts (24:36)
Regulatory updates (31:58)
Shoutouts (34:26)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/treppwire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/16/2021 • 39 minutes, 34 seconds
99. The Return to Office Change-up: Is a Sell-off in Our Future?
The latest job claims update, higher than expected wage growth, and economic slowdown this summer due to the delta variant have us weighing the possibility of a future sell-off. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into the latest change-up in return to office plans and what this means for the office market in various cities, we talk through Labor Day travel numbers and signs of a comeback for the hotel sector, and provide an update on recent retail gains. Stay tuned for our 100th episode next week!
Episode Notes:
Job Claims Update & Higher than Expected Wage Growth (1:45)
Is a Tax Correction Coming? (7:05)
Green-shoots in the Office Market (18:50)
Must-Know of the Week: Crabgrass in St. Louis (25:01)
Travel Numbers Almost Back to 2019 Levels…How are Hotels Holding Up? (26:34)
Deep Dive on Las Vegas Hotel: LIBOR on the Floor (28:20)
Are the Best of Retail Gains Behind Us? (34:35)
Shout-outs (38:38)
NFL Predictions (42:00)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/9/2021 • 45 minutes, 9 seconds
98. Taking a Stab: Making Sense of Mixed Economic & CRE News
Mixed economic and commercial real estate headlines have us in a circle as we weigh the points and counterpoints of different stories impacting the markets. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into the large decline in the CMBS delinquency rate, share several office and lodging stories, analyze hotel occupancy, review “better-than-ever” demand for several retailers that reported earnings, and give an update on the latest Eviction Moratorium news.
Episode Notes:
Economic update (0:20)
CMBS delinquencies decline (6:48)
Return to office and vaccine mandates (12:13)
Positive and negative office stories (15:10)
Lodging occupancy and travel news (24:35)
Retail stories to watch (31:57)
Manhattan street-level retail update (38:41)
Eviction Moratorium news(44:21)
Shoutouts (48:25)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/treppwire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
9/1/2021 • 54 minutes, 53 seconds
97. Special Episode: Trepp CRE Sentiment Survey Results, Mix of Hopeful Signs & Structural Concerns
Access the survey results here: https://www.trepp.com/2021-cre-sentiment-survey-results
Concerns over economic conditions, the Delta variant, and inflation continue to weigh on commercial real estate market participants. But are there any blind spots that investors should be watching for? In a special episode, we reveal the results of Trepp’s 2021 CRE Sentiment Survey, highlighting some of the most important points and key takeaways from what we found.
Episode Notes:
• Joe’s return to office (0:56)
• The survey (5:37)
• Overall sentiment: bifurcated (8:30)
• Economic and regulatory impact (11:50)
• CRE delinquency predictions (15:35)
• Transaction activity (18:00)
• CRE fundamentals: effective rents and economic occupancy (19:43)
• When will people be back in the office (23:53)
• Biggest concerns (23:34)
• Audience write-ins/shoutouts (26:51)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/26/2021 • 39 minutes, 11 seconds
96. Mall Value Reductions, Credit Crisis Catalysts, Positive Retail Earnings
Take Trepp's CRE Sentiment Survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/S2YNXYD
In this week’s episode, we weigh the potential catalysts for a future credit crisis and review retail earnings for Walmart, Home Depot, Target, etc. which all beat on the bottom line. In CRE and CMBS news, we cover our latest headlines on mall value reductions, loans becoming newly delinquent, office lease renewals and sales, and new hotel openings.
Episode Notes:
What could be the catalyst for the next credit crisis? (1:00)
Clues from retail earnings (11:50)
Must-Know: Amazon opening brick and mortar stores (19:20)
Mall value reductions, CMBX 6 news, newly delinquent loans (23:44)
Firms reworking return to office plans (27:11)
Office headlines (31:06)
Deal of the Week (36:37)
Airbnb earnings (38:11)
Hotel green shoot(43:18)
Shoutouts (45:17)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/20/2021 • 48 minutes, 5 seconds
95. Summer CRE Potpourri: Retail & Office Green Shoots and Need-to-Know News
In this week’s episode, our theme is a summer potpourri, a mix of retail and office headlines that are important to the commercial real estate finance market. We discuss the potential for borrowers handing back the keys, positive signs from Dillard’s earnings, WeWork’s latest partnership, upcoming foreclosure auctions, and office returns and rollbacks.
Episode Notes:
The time to taper is coming (0:55)
Dillard’s earnings (5:07)
Trading Alerts: non-core malls, borrowers handing back keys (8:46)
Retail green shoots (18:04)
Saks Fifth Avenue partners with WeWork (21:10)
The Gap’s $24M in back rent (23:55)
Employers moving ahead or rolling back return to the office (26:41)
Office leases and sales (32:46)
Upcoming foreclosure auctions (39:45)
Single-family rental update (41:35)
Shoutouts (44:08)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/12/2021 • 48 minutes, 46 seconds
94. Hotel Sales Comps, Retail Earnings, Return to Office Rollbacks, Eviction Ban Extension
In this week’s episode, we dive into the takeaways from the week's economic news and cover more earnings for giants in the hardest-hit sectors, lodging and retail. We run through the latest hotel transactions and what the sales mean for the market, discuss a tenant/mall lawsuit, and rollbacks for firms' return to the office plans. Lastly, we cover the extension of the eviction moratorium and the top markets for CRE investment.
Episode Notes:
This week's economic takeaways (1:11)
Travel earnings (7:20)
Hotel transactions (13:35)
Retail news and earnings (16:14)
Mall and tenant lawsuit (22:52)
Return to office rollbacks (25:28)
Vornado earnings: Class A office space demand (28:26)
Deal of the Week (32:00)
Must-Knows of the Week (33:29)
Multifamily: eviction ban extended (35:52)
Top markets for CRE investment (43:00)
Shoutouts (44:45)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
8/6/2021 • 48 minutes, 24 seconds
93. Vaccine Mandates, Metro Rankings, Earnings Messages
In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we cover trends from the latest COVID-19 vaccine mandates and behind the tech giants’ and REIT earnings reports. We also dive into some key stories including how certain retail closures can impact a mall, more office lease and tenant moves, and the rise in hotel occupancy. Finally, we cover the latest news on the Eviction Moratorium and give a sneak peek at our secondary MSA rankings and delinquency report.
Episode Notes:
Vaccine mandates, tech earnings, economic update (1:01)
Boston Properties’ earnings (10:33)
Movie theater and student housing REIT earnings (14:51)
Preliminary delinquency rates (18:12)
Tesla showroom closings, how certain tenant closures can impact a mall (19:21)
Deal of the Week (23:26)
Office news: GSA demand decreases (25:13)
Must-Know of the Week: Chicago Law Firm Moving? (28:42)
Trading Alert: Fraud allegations for big CMBS loan (31:37)
Eviction Moratorium update (35:23)
Hotel occupancy rising (40:03)
Ranking metro areas for CRE investment (46:28)
Shoutouts (48:21)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode, we give a list of retail loans that can be noted as in "purgatory." Then, we dive into mall value reductions, share a “man on the ground” view of the current state of NYC, and run through the latest office lease renewals. We also review the possibility that we may be defying normal economic measures in the current climate, with the news that the recession is over (and lasted just two months.)
Episode Notes:
National Bureau of Economic Research: “Recession is over” (1:06)
Inflation update (9:12)
Retail loans in purgatory (14:50)
Mall value reductions (21:03)
Man on the street – the state of NYC (25:35)
Office stories: lease renewals, return to work (31:23)
Deal of the Week (37:57)
Must-Know of the Week (39:56)
Shoutouts (41:16)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
7/22/2021 • 46 minutes, 43 seconds
91. NOI Analysis: Hotel & Mall Pain, The Office Tenant Rollover, CRE Headlines
In this week’s episode, we dive into our latest analysis of financial benchmarks like net operating income, revenue, and occupancy by commercial real estate property type to assess the impact of the pandemic. We also give a review of office maturity data, showing some significant tenant rollover, discuss Fed Chair Powell’s latest inflation comments, Q2 2021 bank earnings, and this week's headlines and must-know news for the CRE market.
Episode Notes:
Inflation drivers, economic update, Fed comments (0:40)
Financial benchmarks: NOI, occupancy, revenue, expense data (4:51)
Green shoots for hotels (10:10)
Mixed-bag hotel stories (12:27)
Retail round-up (15:40)
Starwood’s selling streak (19:56)
Office maturities: tenant rollover (21:25)
Major metro office stories (27:03)
Q2 2021 bank earnings (34:22)
Shoutouts (35:29)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
7/15/2021 • 43 minutes, 40 seconds
90. Issuance Investigation: First-Half 2021 Trends and Activity, A Blend of Retail and Office News
Issuance activity is on the upswing for 2021 and some are predicting we could set a new record for the year. In this week’s episode, Darren King, Trepp’s Head of CMBS joins to give a deep dive on what we are seeing in terms of conduit, SASB, and CRE CLO issuance trends. We also review a blend of headlines for the retail and office sectors amid a return to normalcy. Finally, with employees heading back to the office in the coming months, we debate what may change about office attire.
Episode Notes:
What’s going on with the 10-year? (0:41)
CMBS conduit, SASB, and CRE CLO issuance activity (6:11)
Are CRE CLO trends transitory? (9:42)
Positive retail news (16:30)
Crabgrass in the retail market (28:23)
The office shuffle (31:01)
Shoutouts (40:07)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
Back in December 2020, The TreppWire Podcast team offered performance predictions for each property type as the return to normalcy began to come into focus. In this week’s episode, we are back to grade the predictions, comparing the delinquency rates for lodging, retail, multifamily, office, and industrial to what we are seeing now. We also dive into a distressed asset trading alert where we explain what it means to buy distressed bonds, how a waterfall works, and why this story is a win for some bondholders.
Episode Notes:
Economic update: jobs report, eviction moratorium, inflation (0:42)
Mixed-bag of delinquency news (5:35)
CRE market recovery: reviewing our predictions (9:00)
CMBS Spreads (19:17)
Distressed Asset Trading Alert (22:10)
Must-Knows of the Week: moves and potential vacancies (30:22)
Green shoots (33:49)
Shoutouts and Deal of the Week (36:08)
7/2/2021 • 43 minutes, 50 seconds
88. The Mall Loan Witness Protection Program, Stress Test Results, Week of Regulatory News
In this week’s episode, we walk through the week’s regulatory and economic headlines, dive into the Fed’s Stress Testing results, and give an update on the must-know, good, and bad news for the office sector as companies return to work. We also share our latest retail round-up, highlighting several mall loans that may need to go into witness protection due to valuation reductions, reclassifications, and more. Stick around as we tease what’s to come for next week, where we will grade our 2021 predictions (and there will be no curve).
Episode Notes:
Economic news (0:21)
FHFA Director ousted – what does it mean for investors, borrowers, lenders? (1:10)
Green CMBS deal first to meet ESG criteria (10:40)
Eviction Moratorium update (16:03)
Retail round-up: value reductions, reclassifications, and more. (18:49)
Banks return to work (25:48)
Office must-know, good, and bad news (30:02)
Quick hit: hotel story (37:41)
Fed Stress Testing results (39:16)
Shoutouts (44:29)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
Trepp just wrapped up our mid-year analysis (aptly called The Mid-Year Magazine) that will be published next week with Commercial Real Estate Direct. In this week’s episode, we walk through some of the mid-year analyses of the good, the bad, and the unknown for each CRE property type while sprinkling in some updates from recent TreppWire stories. We also give insights on the discussion at this week's CREFC annual conference. Listen here.
Episode Notes:
Economic news(0:25)
Retail sales (3:57)
CREFC Confidential: CRE market conversation (10:02)
Good, Bad, & Unknown: Mid-Year Analysis (19:52)
Multifamily/apartment sector review (21:43)
Office uncertainty and headlines (25:01)
'Must-Know' of the week (29:36)
Industrial sector update (31:21)
The hard-hit hotel sector (33:21)
Retail wrap-up (38:25)
Shoutouts (45:06)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode, we welcome Mike Benz, Trepp’s Senior Vice President and Head of US Banking Solutions to discuss the regulatory shift in the banking market. We dive into takeaways from CECL and what’s to come, office headlines and stories that the market “must know,” retail news, and loan payoffs.
Episode Notes:
• Inflation growth (0:51)
• Office green shoots (8:02)
• Crab grass for the office market (12:20)
• Must-Know of the Week (13:50)
• Retail update (15:23)
• Mall loan payoffs (17:21)
• Deal of the Week (27:11)
• Regulatory shift in banking (29:44)
• CECL takeaways (46:48)
• Shoutouts (50:21)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
6/11/2021 • 53 minutes, 36 seconds
85. Hotels Rebounding, Office and Multifamily Occupancy, The Donut Effect
In this week’s episode, we cover the latest CMBS delinquency report and what it means for the market as the rates descend from their mid-pandemic highs. We also dive into office and multifamily occupancy rates across major metro areas, review positive and negative stories for the office sector, discuss hotel sales, cap rates, and other news, and talk about The Donut Effect.
Episode Notes:
Economic signs that we’re turning a corner (0:25)
CMBS delinquencies (5:08)
Hotels rebounding (8:35)
New York happenings (11:08)
Positive and negative stories for office (13:22)
Office occupancy rates (23:03)
Hotel sales and cap rates (28:03)
Multifamily occupancy analysis (36:59)
Eviction Moratorium update (43:06)
Deal of the Week (45:13)
Shoutouts (47:01)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
6/5/2021 • 50 minutes, 44 seconds
84. We’re Back: Hotels, Retail, & Office Turning the Corner; Positive News This Week
During the latest Senate hearing, Jamie Dimon acknowledged there is a housing bubble, but not like the previous one. In this week’s episode, we discuss the housing market and what can be described as an “alternative housing bubble.” We spend this episode looking on the bright side: reviewing the recent headlines for lodging, retail, and office that may show the sectors turning a corner.
Episode Notes:
Housing bubble or alternative bubble? (0:48)
Multifamily and single-family rents (7:36)
Investors’ reactions to retail earnings (12:57)
Positive CRE finance retail stories (16:42)
Commercial rents pave way for new retailers (19:21)
A hybrid model for office (22:13)
Tenant moves (26:04)
Good office news (30:21)
Hotels, payoffs, extensions, etc. (34:39)
Shoutouts (40:42)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/29/2021 • 45 minutes, 12 seconds
83. Managing Real Estate Risk with Dr. Eva Steiner, Penn State Smeal College of Business
In a special guest episode, we welcome Dr. Eva Steiner, Associate Professor of Real Estate at the Penn State Smeal College of Business to discuss managing risk in commercial real estate. Professor Steiner discusses several of her studies and dives into the rate of return of real estate, private equity investments in the hotel industry, the impact of PPP loans on the competitive behavior of hotels, and more.
Episode Notes:
• Rate of return of real estate (1:00)
• Private equity investment in the hotel industry (6:49)
• Oversaturation in the markets (13:57)
• Impact of PPP loans on the competitive behavior of hotels (16:25)
• Link between credit market conditions and performance of real estate securities (24:19)
• Classes back in session (26:25)
• What’s different now in academia? (28:26)
5/25/2021 • 31 minutes, 5 seconds
82. Movie Theaters, Shopping Malls, and More Office Moves
This week, AT&T announced it will spin off WarnerMedia which is the latest installment in the streaming war news... and there is some real impact that this may have on commercial real estate. In this week’s episode, Trepp’s Head of CMBS, Darren King, joins the team to analyze what is going on in this area. We also dive into the latest retail earnings, a CMBX 6 story, more mall news, both negative and positive signs for the office market, and an update on hotels.
Episode Notes:
• Fed’s last meeting (1:37)
• Retail earnings (3:13)
• Movie theater industry: Impact on real estate (9:57)
• CMBX 6 Trading Alert (25:12)
• Office trends and predictions (35:56)
• Discouraging and encouraging signs for office(39:10)
• Hotel taxes and news (43:39)
• Life insurance commercial mortgage returns report (47:26)
• Shoutouts (48:28)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/20/2021 • 51 minutes, 59 seconds
81. Liquidity in Commercial Real Estate with Jim Shevlin, CWCapital and RealINSIGHT
In this guest episode, Jim Shevlin, President and COO at CWCapital and RealINSIGHT joins the team to have a conversation about liquidity in the commercial real estate market. Jim walks us through what he is seeing in terms of transaction volume, compares the current market to other financial crises, and dives into the thought process of special servicers who had to manage an influx of hotel loans. We also discuss what will happen to the office and retail markets.
Episode Notes:
• Auction marketplace and process (3:06)
• Vibe check: managing a special servicing company during covid (5:10)
• Liquidity in the CRE market (7:05)
• Comparison to other financial crises (8:33)
• Hotels in special servicing (11:07)
• What is happening to office? (15:00)
• Retail after the pandemic (21:59)
• Multifamily: will we see the same trends as in single-family homes? (26:13)
• Real estate infrastructure and software (27:30)
• Where is the distress? (32:04)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/18/2021 • 35 minutes, 22 seconds
80. A Grab Bag of Retail and Office Headlines, Inflation Confirmation
In this week’s episode, we discuss the latest data that confirms inflation is a real issue. But, is it a short-term reopen shock? We also spend some time digging into the current state of the retail market: street-level retail update, mall owners throwing in the towel, REITs adding tenants, mall traffic data, and more. Lastly, we run through office stories and the April loan payoff report and what it means for investors.
Episode Notes:
• Inflation confirmation (1:00)
• Retail round-up (11:35)
• L-brands spinoff (17:47)
• Simon Property Group earnings (19:22)
• Office stories (22:06)
• April Payoff Report (30:25)
• Why do CMBS investors care about payoffs (32:43)
• Shoutouts (36:10)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
5/12/2021 • 40 minutes, 1 second
79. End of 1031 Exchange?, REIT Earnings, Retail Rundown, Delinquency Report
In this week’s episode, Manus and Joe run through the highs and lows of the week, and the things that keep them up at night. We review a single-asset single-borrower retail deal in the works, green shoots and crabgrass in retail, more news for firms returning (or not) to their offices, and the latest delinquency rates. The team dives into an update on the Eviction Moratorium and 1031 Exchange and reviews multifamily REIT Earnings.
Episode Notes:
Highs and lows of the week (1:00)
SASB retail deal in the works (8:52)
Green shoots and crabgrass in retail (16:15)
Deal of the Week (21:06)
Delinquency rates (22:59)
Office news: WeWork (25:06)
Firms returning (or not) to their offices (28:27)
Eviction Moratorium update (31:31)
Multifamily REIT earnings (32:59)
1031 Exchange on the chopping block? (37:54)
Shoutouts (45:47)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode, we dive into the latest positive signs for street-level retail following the announcement that all business restrictions in New York will be lifted this summer. We also discuss the list of New York City hotels that have been used for homeless shelters throughout the pandemic, downgrades for mall loans, and how much office demand will be forthcoming for the Tech Titans.
Episode Notes:
Fed’s monetary policy update (0:49)
Positive signs for street-level retail (9:14)
SL Green earnings (12:48)
The reopening of restaurants (15:32)
Downgrades for mall loans (17:34)
New York office news (20:09)
Homeless hotels in Midtown Manhattan (21:36)
Office demand for the Tech Titans (24:35)
Companies returning to the office (33:08)
Deal of the Week (40:35)
Shoutouts (42:37)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/30/2021 • 49 minutes, 20 seconds
77. Check-In on COVID Delinquencies, End of Retail Apocalypse?, Office Vacancies, Student Housing
With servicer data slowly showing signs of how the pandemic impacted commercial real estate, it is time to look at last year's delinquencies and whether these loans are starting to "cure" or pay off. In this week’s episode, we preview the current status of loans that were delinquent during the height of the COVID market crisis, review office vacancies, and give an update on the retail apocalypse and the student housing and single-family rental markets.
Episode Notes:
Weekly economic update (0:48)
Where are last year’s delinquent loans now? (6:38)
Government offices shrinking space (10:04)
Office vacancies (15:23)
Positive office headlines (19:28)
“Retail apocalypse” update (21:25)
Hotel news (32:06)
Multifamily occupancy analysis, student-housing (39:53)
Single-family rental market (43:31)
Shoutouts (45:25)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
In this week’s episode, we dig into the recovery that the latest Fed economic survey found is “broad-based across industries” and highlight solid big bank earnings. We also review recent office headlines that can fall into good, bad, and ugly categories. We discuss movement in the retail sector in terms of property sales and more stories of occupancy declines for multifamily properties.
Episode Notes:
• Economic recovery, retail sales, interest rates(0:51)
• Q1 bank earnings (8:54)
• Office: Good, bad, and ugly (16:14)
• Retail property sales(29:25)
• Drops in multifamily occupancy(35:20)
• Hotel purchase(42:58)
• Deal of the Week (45:59)
• Shoutouts (49:31)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/17/2021 • 53 minutes, 12 seconds
75. Hotel & Multifamily Distress Across the U.S., Spike in CRE CLO Demand, Retail Round-Up
In this week’s episode, Trepp’s Head of CMBS, Darren King joins us to analyze the spike in demand for commercial real estate CLOs in Q1 2021. We take a tour across the U.S., where different geographies saw vastly different impacts from COVID-19 in terms of multifamily occupancy and lodging distress rates. We also walk through special servicing data and the latest in retail and CMBX 6.
Episode Notes:
Economic update (1:06)
Spike in demand for CRE CLOs (5:10)
Multifamily occupancy analysis: different impacts across U.S. (17:35)
NYC budget and condo/co-op tax (26:41)
Recovery for the hotel sector, where is the distress? (29:02)
Special servicing update (31:17)
Latest retail headlines and CMBX 6 update (36:29)
Deals of the Week (43:06)
Shoutouts (46:05)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/9/2021 • 48 minutes, 59 seconds
74. Global Investing in Commercial Real Estate with David Bitner, Cushman & Wakefield
In a special guest episode, we welcome David Bitner, Global Head of Capital Markets Insights at Cushman & Wakefield to discuss the firm’s latest Signal Report: The Global Guide to CRE Investing. David and Manus review the global outlook for CRE, areas of strength for retail, the painful lag in business travel, and thoughts on residential real estate. David also shares hidden investment opportunities and surprises.
Episode Notes:
The Signal Report: Global Guide to CRE Investing in 2021 (1:39)
Interest rate risk (6:15)
Global outlook (9:55)
Canary in the coalmine (13:05)
Post-pandemic property type analysis (15:56)
Areas of strength for retail (18:21)
A painful lag in business travel (19:04)
Residential real estate (20:57)
Office market opinions (25:55)
Hidden investment opportunities and surprises (32:55)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/5/2021 • 35 minutes, 41 seconds
73. Fresh Bank CRE Loan & CMBS Delinquency Data, Falling Multifamily Occupancy, Hotel & Sports
In this week's episode, the team examines new economic data which shows choppy progress. We dive into CMBS delinquency rates and give listeners a sneak peek at the latest bank CRE loan performance and multifamily occupancy data. It was a heavy sports day for the team: we talk about some hotels that are struggling without live sports and also get excited for MLB Opening Day, the Masters, and college basketball.
Episode Notes:
Economic update: Jobs anticipation, Archegos (1:01)
CMBS delinquencies (6:38)
Return to the office (11:53)
Multifamily occupancy (22:23)
Retail vacancies (26:51)
Hotels: hurt by travel and live sports fans (31:40)
Bank CRE loan performance (36:25)
Deal of the Week (38:34)
Shoutouts (41:11)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
4/2/2021 • 46 minutes, 30 seconds
72. Distressed Logjam Loosens, Hotel Deals in the Market, One Year of Podcasts
In the CRE space, investors have been waiting for distressed asset sales and it seems that hotel opportunities are now on the rise. In this week’s episode, we discuss these hotel sales, the flux in the state of the office market, and analyze the latest multifamily occupancy news. The team reminisces on one year of The TreppWire Podcast. Thanks to all of our listeners for the continued support!
Episode Notes:
• Fed Chair Powell’s thoughts on CRE (4:15)
• Hotel space opportunities (7:19)
• Office in a state of flux (18:12)
• NYC multifamily market (29:04)
• Retail: malls remain the biggest area of concern (32:10)
• Percentage rent leases (40:10)
• Deal of the Week (42:05)
• Shoutouts (43:27)
• One Year of The TreppWire Podcast (45:10)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
3/25/2021 • 49 minutes, 20 seconds
71. Green Shoots & Crabgrass in CRE, Property Valuation News, The State of CMBX 6
In this week's episode, we discuss positive and negative signs (or green shoots and crabgrass as we like to call it) in the latest commercial real estate data. We talk through more commercial property valuations, how working from home can impact credit ratings, and give an update on CMBX 6. Tune in to the end for our March Madness picks.
Episode Notes:
- Fed takeaways (0:58)
- Positive signs in CRE data (7:01)
- Renewed interest in hotels (15:03)
- Green shoots in the office market (23:36)
- Work-from-home impacting CMBS credit ratings (28:32)
- Offices reducing space (31:57)
- The state of CMBX 6 (34:41)
- Environmental risk scores and CMBS (37:40)
- Deal of the Week (39:15)
- Shoutouts (40:30)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
Follow Trepp:
-Twitter: https://twitter.com/TreppWire
-LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc
-Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
3/19/2021 • 48 minutes, 59 seconds
70. Road to Recovery for the Distressed Debt Market with Donald Sheets, Broadshore Capital Partners
In a special guest episode, Donald Sheets, Managing Director and Member of the Management Committee at Broadshore Capital Partners is back to give us an update on the distressed debt market. We review concerns over inflation and rising interest rates, commercial mortgage bond prices, and get a lesson on distressed debt 101.
Episode Notes:
• Rising interest rate environment, does capital reprice or disappear? (1:51)
• Distressed debt 101 and catalysts (9:19)
• Vibe check (14:14)
• Office space (18:46)
• Asset by asset prices (26:13)
• Where will malls go? (28:07)
• Where are we a year from now? (34:01)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
3/17/2021 • 40 minutes, 25 seconds
69. COVID-19's One Year Check-Up: Biggest Surprises in the CRE Market & Overall
In this week’s episode, the team is back together as we give our one-year reflections on the coronavirus pandemic by highlighting the biggest surprises in the commercial real estate market and overall. We also dive into the latest stimulus package and the potential impacts to CRE and discuss the latest headlines for retail and office.
Episode Notes:
- Inflation and interest rates
- Impact of latest stimulus on the CRE market (11:50)
- Biggest surprises a year into the pandemic (14:23)
- Property type surprises (21:08)
- Retail headlines: Disney, Kroger, outlet centers (24:31)
- American Dream Mall news(29:15)
- Office sublease and occupancy news (31:40)
- Deal of the Week (37:22)
- Shoutouts (39:39)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
3/11/2021 • 45 minutes, 55 seconds
68. Delinquency Drops, Return to the Office, Performance of CRE CLOs, Texas CRE Snapshot
In this week’s episode, we analyze the recent drops in the delinquency rate, especially for hotels and retail, and what it means for the market. We take listeners through the latest office headlines, retail news and earnings, CRE CLO performance, and dive into the Texas real estate market.
Episode Notes:
Market news (0:20)
Retail earnings (1:54)
Delinquency rates (6:48)
Office news (11:30)
Update on WeWork (20:56)
Washington Prime Group (23:27)
CRE CLO update (25:20)
Texas news (34:07)
Spreads on new deals (38:12)
Shoutouts (41:25)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
3/5/2021 • 47 minutes, 29 seconds
67. The Resiliency of REITs, Performance and Outlook with John Worth of Nareit
In a special guest episode, we welcome John Worth, Executive Vice President of Research and Investor Outreach at Nareit, the voice for REITs and publicly-traded real estate companies. John talks to the team about REIT performance over the past year, potential new regulatory impacts, takeaways from REIT earnings, and thoughts on the future of the office. He also shares his forward-looking comments for the market.
Episode Notes:
• REITs 101 (00:40)
• The past year – REIT performance (3:06)
• What types of debt do REITs use (8:29)
• New regulation impacts (11:23)
• Takeaways from REIT earnings (13:28)
• Office (17:50)
• Travel/Conferences (22:40)
• Predictions and forward-looking comments (23:59)
• Inflation and interest rates for REITs (26:20)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
3/2/2021 • 31 minutes, 46 seconds
66. Early Look at NOI Changes, Hidden Delinquency Rate, New Appraisals, Co-Tenancy Clauses
In this week’s episode, Lonnie Hendry is back as we review the latest market news. We give an early look at changes in revenue and net operating income, dive into nuances in servicer data, discuss a rescue fund for hotels, and comb through more office news. On the retail front, we talk about more store closings and co-tenancy clauses.
Episode Notes:
• Latest market news (1:10)
• Office news (6:32)
• Deal of the Week (13:35)
• Retail and store closures (15:46)
• Co-tenancy education segment (18:41)
• New appraisals and valuations (27:03)
• Financial performance of properties in CMBS (33:00)
• Fund to rescue hotels (37:27)
• Nuances in servicer data (41:44)
• Future CRE Leaders Awards (46:10)
• Shoutouts(47:25)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
In this week’s episode, we look at the latest headlines fanning the flames of concerns over inflation. We also discuss even more companies shedding their office footprints, value reductions and revaluations for malls across the country, and opportunities in the NYC hotel market. Lastly, Manus and Joe give an overview of types of credit enhancement and look at the Fed’s latest stress testing scenarios.
Episode Notes:
• Concerns over inflation (00:59)
• Office news (6:18)
• Conversion of properties (14:10)
• Hotel earnings (17:04)
• Federal ban on foreclosures (22:24)
• Mall value reductions and revaluations (27:44)
• Credit enhancement 101 (30:40)
• 2021 Fed Stress Test scenarios (35:23)
• Deal of the week (41:47)
• Shoutouts (43:20)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
In this week’s episode, we look at the latest mix of bad and good news for the commercial real estate property types. We walk through this week’s ‘Ground Zero’- like office headlines, unicorn news for the hotel segment, Simon’s retail earnings, and Amazon’s industrial story. We also discuss our Life Insurance Commercial Mortgage Return Index and CMBS deal pricing 101. In time for Valentine’s day, we share our thoughts on the holiday.
Notes:
• Market Headlines (0:45)
• Office sector news: sublets (1:30)
• NY office news (7:37)
• Chicago – 'Ground Zero' for office(9:05)
• San Francisco segment (10:23)
• Unicorn headlines for hotels(13:24)
• The "salvation of the shopping mall" (20:25)
• Simon earnings (26:30)
• Industrial news from Amazon (31:26)
• New CMBS Deal Pricing 101 (33:43)
• Life Insurance Commercial Mortgage Return Index(41:15)
• Shoutouts (42:35)
• Deal of the Week (47:26)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
2/13/2021 • 51 minutes, 38 seconds
63. Policies & Predictions: Forecast for CRE Finance with Jamie Woodwell and Mike Flood from MBA
The Mortgage Bankers Association recently hosted the CREF21 virtual conference and released their Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. In a special episode, MBA’s Jamie Woodwell, VP of Research and Economics, and Mike Flood, Senior VP of Commercial/Multifamily Policy and Member Engagement walk us through the takeaways. We also discuss how the new administration can impact real estate finance policies, look at what the recovery may look like, and predictions for the office market.
Episode Notes
• Intros (0:43)
• MBA CREF21 Takeaways (2:35)
• What is working to help the markets? (5:35)
• Liquidity in the market (8:50)
• Market indicators for the health of the industry (11:41)
o Quarterly originations index (12:08)
• What will the recovery look like? (16:26)
• Impacts of the new administration on CRE finance (21:24)
• Policies to watch for CMBS participants (25:21)
• Eviction Moratorium and rental assistance (33:38)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
2/10/2021 • 37 minutes, 43 seconds
62. The Delinquency Digest, Eviction Moratorium Rundown, UK CRE News, Notable Leases & Sales
In this week’s episode, we welcome Trepp’s Head of EMEA & APAC, and Chair of the MERG, Vivek-Anand Dattani to give a rundown of what is happening in the European markets. We also dive into US market news, highlight the latest delinquency and distress rates, review CMBX trading, retail and office news, and the Eviction Moratorium. Listen until the end for the team’s Super Bowl LV picks.
Episode Notes
• Covid and market news around the globe (1:00)
• US Market Update (3:45)
• Delinquency, special servicing, watchlist rates by property type (4:57)
• UK CRE and CMBS trends (10:23)
• US retail news (17:20)
• CMBX trading overview (20:46)
• Multifamily and the Eviction Moratorium (30:09)
• REIT earnings (36:00)
• Leases of the week (40:27)
• Notable sales (46:01)
• Corporate CLO market update (48:13)
• Shoutouts (53:43)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
2/6/2021 • 57 minutes, 37 seconds
61. Follow the Feet: Tracking CRE Performance Using Consumer Behavior ft Ethan Chernofsky, Placer.ai
In a special episode, we welcome Ethan Chernofsky, VP of Marketing at Placer.ai, a firm that uses cellphone data to track consumer behavior. We discuss how watching foot traffic in retail has emerged as a leading indicator of property performance. We also cover surprises in offline retail, the 2020 retail winners, and predictions for 2021 winners.
Episode Notes
• About Placer.ai (00:30)
• Surprises in the demand for data(2:48)
• 2020 retail winners (6:08)
• Challenges for malls (9:00)
• An update on the fitness market (15:25)
• Foot traffic data for overall property performance(19:44)
• Greenshoots in the market (29:23)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
2/2/2021 • 33 minutes, 5 seconds
60. The Short Squeeze Frenzy, Conversion of Malls, Loans to Watch Across Property Sectors
In this week’s episode, we break down the short squeeze surge that made headlines this week and why it matters to the commercial real estate market. We also discuss the latest retailer closings, the conversion of malls, more news on apartment occupancy, and corporate office closures. The team highlights some of very own Trading Alerts for those in the market.
Episode Notes:
Stark stock moves and why it matters for CRE (0:44)
Retail closures (12:40)
Trading Alerts (14:35)
The conversion of malls (24:45)
Apartment occupancy news (29:45)
Tenant rights (31:49)
Corporate office closures (34:06)
Deals of the week (38:35)
Shoutouts (39:43)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
1/27/2021 • 48 minutes, 39 seconds
59. Vaccines and Vacancy, Cracks in Multifamily, Q4 Bank Earnings, Wave of Hotel Bankruptcies
In this week’s episode, we break down what the new policies from the Biden administration could mean for CRE and finance and specifically discuss the vaccine rollout. We also talk about the big takeaways from Q4 bank earnings, the latest bank loan delinquency rates, tumbling occupancy levels in the multifamily sector, and a wave of hotel bankruptcies. Tune in to hear how we also work chicken wings, Tom Brady, and airline wine into the conversation.
Episode Notes:
Vaccine rollout and administrative changes (0:54)
The future of policies aimed at the financial industry (5:36)
Q4 Bank earnings (12:20)
Bank CRE Delinquencies on the rise (20:10)
Falling occupancy levels in multifamily (22:00)
Wave of hotel bankruptcies and deed-in-lieus (28:00)
Office news (33:20)
Deals of the Week (36:23)
1/22/2021 • 43 minutes, 29 seconds
58. The 2021 CRE Outlook with Deloitte Real Estate’s Kathy Feucht and John D’Angelo
Deloitte recently published its 2021 commercial real estate outlook, outlining opportunities for CRE practitioners to respond, recover and thrive during the pandemic. We welcome Deloitte’s Kathy Feucht, Global Real Estate Leader, and John D’Angelo, Managing Director to discuss their findings and recommendations. The team also dives into the digital transformation of real estate, discusses the future for office, and reviews the threat of cybersecurity in the age of working from home.
Deloitte 2021 CRE Outlook (1:20)
Shortcomings in real estate's digital operations (7:00)
Game-changing real estate technology (11:50)
Confidence of different segments/geographies (13:30)
The impact of a digital experience on real estate (16)
Impact on office and the three work models (24:20)
The relocation of business (28:00)
Real estate footprints (30:30)
Threats of cybersecurity (34:35)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
1/18/2021 • 37 minutes, 41 seconds
57. Distressed Property Valuations, Major Metro Office Headlines, Corporate Transparency for CRE
In this week’s episode, Trepp’s Head of Advisory Services, Lonnie Hendry, gives an overview of property valuations and the use of multipliers as a reliable data point. We also break down economic news and the stimulus package, the December payoff report, CRE loan performance, and ponder office headlines that ask the question, is the office desk dead? Lastly, we discuss the National Defense Authorization's Corporate Transparency Act and talk football on Nickelodeon.
Episode Notes:
Economic news and stimulus package breakdown (1:00)
Barstool Fund for small businesses (5:50)
The December payoff report (10:00)
Distressed CRE property valuations and re-appraisals (12:20)
Multipliers for property valuations (17:30)
Big-box and brick-and-mortar retail news (21:40)
Office headlines in major metros; death of the office desk? (30:15)
Deals of the week (40:00)
National Defense Authorization's Corporate Transparency Act (48:10)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
1/14/2021 • 51 minutes, 39 seconds
56. A Look at Travel and Hospitality News, More Retail Closures, What’s to Come for 2021
In this week's episode, the team reviews the impact (or lack thereof) of the Capitol news on financial markets. We also discuss the latest December CMBS delinquency numbers, travel and hospitality headlines, news in the office sector, and the recent retail closures. To close, we reminisce on past CREFC events and dive into what’s to come for the year ahead.
Episode Notes:
Capitol, election, financial market update (1:10)
December CMBS delinquency numbers (7:33)
Travel headlines (9:35)
Holiday spending numbers (13:19)
News for hotels (15:39)
New leases and corporate moves in the office sector (23:50)
Retail closure news this week (32:40)
The repurposing of malls and retail (37:40)
Deals of the week (43:45)
Year-End and what's to come (52:40)
In this week's episode, we take stock of everything that happened in the CRE and CMBS markets in 2020. The CRE market has withstood one of the most impactful shocks to its ecosystem, which has meant different things to each property sector. We look at the biggest surprises of the year, CMBS delinquency rate trends, issuance volume, spread movements, and highlights of the year.
Episode Notes:
What a difference a year makes… (1:05)
CMBS delinquency rate trends (6:39)
Issuance volume (10:26)
Spread movements (15:22)
Increased interest in CMBX indices (20:45)
Biggest surprises by property type (28:49)
The struggling hotel market (36:42)
Retailpocalypse (41:06)
The future of the office market (46:12)
Resiliency in multifamily (51:00)
2020 highlights (54:49)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com
12/29/2020 • 59 minutes, 55 seconds
54. Analyzing CRE Property Valuations, Q3 Bank Loan Performance, Fresh CMBS Delinquency Data
The $900 billion dollar relief bill includes targeted relief for commercial real estate. What does it look like? In this week's episode, we examine the relief measures, the preliminary December CMBS delinquency data, property valuations in this environment, Q3 bank CRE loan performance, and the Federal Reserve’s mid-year stress tests. The team also discusses the potential for new traditions in this COVID-holiday season and what those look like.
Episode Notes:
Relief for the CRE industry? (1:18)
December CMBS delinquency data (9:10)
New issue spreads and trends (12:20)
Hotel repositioning trends (16:50)
The future of senior housing (25:20)
Value loss index analyses (29:40)
Q3 bank CRE loan performance (35:10)
Deals of the week (41:40)
Mid-year bank stress tests (49:25)
Holiday traditions (51:37)
Questions or comments? Please contact Trepp at podcast@trepp.com.
12/23/2020 • 54 minutes, 27 seconds
53. Leveraging CRE Tech during the COVID-19 Crisis with Michael Mandel from CompStak
We welcome Michael Mandel, Co-Founder and CEO of CompStak, a nationwide provider of crowdsourced commercial real estate lease and sales comp data. We discuss the impact of COVID-19 on the CRE tech industry, analyzing lease comps, slower deal velocity, and winners and losers post-pandemic.
Episode Notes:
Integrating Trepp and CompStak data (1:50)
Impacts of slower deal velocity (6:48)
The demand for data in CRE tech (9:20)
Facebook’s Penn Station area lease (13:15)
Analyzing office tenant risk (18:02)
Winners and losers post-pandemic (20:44)
Where is the CRE tech sector heading? (23:01)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com
In this week's episodet, we dig into mall loan losses, a noteworthy CMBX retail loan modification, recent retail bankruptcies, multifamily occupancy rates, falling RevPAR, and troubled debt restructurings. Manus also shares his experience of visiting Manhattan for the first time since March.
Episode Notes:
On the ground in NYC (4:32)
A noteworthy CMBX retail loan modification (8:30)
Analyzing mall loan losses (15:25)
The surge in distribution and warehouse leases (23:10)
Retail bankruptcies (26:25)
The Chicago office market (30:09)
Revisiting multifamily occupancy (37:57)
Falling RevPAR (42:46)
Deals of the Week (48:14)
Troubled debt restructurings (53:52)
Our holiday wishlist (58:06)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com
12/17/2020 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 14 seconds
51. Key CRE Trends from a Broker’s Perspective with Michael Bull, America’s CRE Show & Bull Realty
In a special episode, we welcome Michael Bull, Founder and CEO of Bull Realty and the host of America's Commercial Real Estate Show. We discuss key CRE trends from a broker’s perspective, property repositionings, the future of the office market, and potential long-term changes in the CRE transaction process.
Episode Notes:
The current vibe in Atlanta (1:41)
Key CRE trends from a broker’s perspective (2:56)
Retail, hotel and office performance (8:07)
Potential changes in the CRE transaction process (18:58)
The credit quality of office tenants (22:41)
Predictions for 2021 (26:37)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com
12/15/2020 • 31 minutes, 17 seconds
50. A Global Inflection Point, Special Servicing Rates Decline, Changes in Corporate/Consumer Habits
The sense is that we’re at a global inflection point, with the economy dependent on how fast a vaccine can be fully approved and distributed. In this week's episode, we break down the recent macro news, a declining CMBS special servicing rate, the loan payoff report, and the potential permanent changes in corporate and consumer habits. We also analyze Bob Dylan and Stevie Nicks’ recent nine figure catalog sales.
Episode Notes:
A global inflection point (1:04)
The declining CMBS special servicing rates (8:38)
Rethinking the Manhattan retail market (14:09)
The loan payoff report (21:00)
Permanent changes in corporate and consumer habits? (24:37)
Noteworthy CRE stories (32:50)
Deal of the Week (38:34)
Shout outs (42:05)
Bob Dylan and Stevie Nicks (46:30)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com
12/10/2020 • 49 minutes, 47 seconds
49. Falling Occupancy Rates, Bank CRE Loan Delinquencies, Demand for Office Space
Last week we talked about falling occupancy rates in the multifamily housing market. In this week's episode, we take a deeper dive into this potential trend across all property types. We also look at bank CRE loan vs CMBS delinquencies, the demand (or lack thereof) for office space, and the most recent bad news for retail. Listen here.
Episode Notes:
Bank CRE loan delinquencies (3:21)
Multifamily occupancy rates dipping (10:44)
More bad news for brick and mortar retail (17:48)
The demand (or lack thereof) for office space (33:27)
Deal of the Week (43:59)
Aggregate risk in corporate CLOs (54:29)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com
12/3/2020 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 31 seconds
48. An Early Look at November Delinquency Rates, Options for Distressed Hoteliers, the Urban Exodus
With 90% of reporting now complete for the month of November, what do the latest delinquency numbers look like? In this week's episode, we dig into this month’s delinquency data, sagging occupancy rates, the urban exodus and its impact on multifamily, and options for distressed hoteliers. The team also shares what we’re thankful for this year.
Episode Notes:
Optimism going into the holidays (0:59)
November delinquency numbers (8:40)
Sagging occupancy rates (16:35)
The urban exodus and its impact on multifamily (20:41)
Options for distressed hoteliers (25:47)
Real estate tech titans (34:51)
Deal of the Week (37:24)
What are we thankful for? (44:04)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com
11/25/2020 • 51 minutes, 15 seconds
47. CRE Investing & Servicing with Adam Behlman, President of Real Estate at Starwood Property Trust
In a special episode, we welcome Adam Behlman, President of Real Estate Investing & Servicing at Starwood Property Trust, the largest commercial mortgage REIT in the US with a market cap of $5 billion. We discuss the volatility today compared to the Great Financial Crisis, the current mindset of borrowers, opportunity for the CMBS market, forbearance relief, and challenges in appraisals.
Episode Notes:
Comparing the Great Financial Crisis to the pandemic (5:39)
Starwood’s conduit lending business (10:44)
Opportunity for the CMBS market (15:09)
The current mindset of borrowers (18:48)
More forbearance relief coming? (22:04)
The migration to Florida (25:05)
Potential changes coming out of this crisis? (28:21)
Challenges in appraisals (34:12)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com
11/24/2020 • 38 minutes, 2 seconds
46. Hotel Sector in Dire Straits, Warehouse Loan Hedging 101, Early Indicators of Bank Failure Risk
What’s next for the struggling hotel sector? In this week's episode, we analyze the flurry of bad news for hotels, which make up the third-largest property type by outstanding CMBS balance. We also discuss retail earnings, warehouse loan hedging 101, early indicators for bank failure risk, and what our Thanksgiving festivities will look like this year.
Episode Notes:
Retail earnings takeaways (1:05)
The lodging sector in dire straits (9:09)
Notable TreppWire headlines (19:52)
Deal of the Week (25:05)
Warehouse loan hedging 101 (31:31)
Indicators of bank failure risk (43:50)
Thanksgiving in 2020 (50:12)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com
11/19/2020 • 52 minutes, 30 seconds
45. Property Performance Predictions in a Post-Vaccine World
A widely available vaccine will change the game for commercial real estate, which has of course been hit hard this year. In this week's episode, we offer performance predictions for each property type as the return to normalcy begins to come into focus.
Episode Notes:
Hotel performance in a post-vaccine world (1:00)
The shift in retail (11:02)
Office prices falling (14:38)
Is multifamily performance sustainable? (24:55)
Delinquency rate predictions (29:59)
Sternlicht’s comments on hotel and retail (37:37)
Deals of the Week (42:35)
Digging into the loan payoff report (48:40)
The good, the bad, and the ugly (52:55)
With the pressure of the flash recession and a new presidential agenda likely, we may see renewed emphasis on surveillance and risk management for larger financial institutions. In this week's episode, we break down potential regulatory changes, the history of risk retention rules, and measures on the ballot affecting CRE. We also dig into notable Q3 CRE data, the CMBS payoff report, bank failure risk, and the parallels between retail tenants and the legendary (and now defunct) American Basketball Association.
Episode Notes:
What’s behind the market rally? (51:25)
CRE regulatory measures on the ballot (7:44)
The CMBS delinquency rate continues to drop (10:08)
Notable Q3 CRE data (16:52)
The CMBS payoff report (24:40)
Risk retention 101 (29:16)
Deals of the Week (41:01)
Bank failure risk (44:13)
America runs on Dunkin (48:59)
11/5/2020 • 51 minutes, 11 seconds
43. CRE Investment Insights with Dr. David Hartzell & Caroline O’Neill, UNC Kenan-Flagler PE Fund
The University of North Carolina Kenan-Flagler private equity fund was the first student-run real estate fund whose mission was to invest outside capital in an educational setting to deliver real returns for investors. In a special episode, we welcome Dr. David Hartzell, Director of the Leonard Wood Center for Real Estate Studies at UNC, and Caroline O’Neill, full-time MBA student and manager of UNC’s fund. We discuss their CRE investment strategies, deal sourcing for the fund, shifting demographics and consumer tastes, pockets of opportunity, and how the pandemic has impacted the market. Listen here.
Episode Notes:
Online learning and the post-pandemic job market (2:13)
UNC’s student run private equity real estate fund (7:09)
Fund performance and deal sourcing (9:51)
Shifting consumer tastes and demographics (21:32)
Pockets of opportunity (27:31)
Comparing the pandemic to the Great Financial Crisis (34:21)
11/3/2020 • 39 minutes, 48 seconds
42. The Outlook for the Distressed Debt Market, Retail Valuations, Recent CMBS Pricing Levels
In this week's episode, we analyze the outlook for the distressed asset market, recent pricing levels, retail valuations, the concept of a “loss waiting to happen,” and the big CRE stories of the week. With Halloween right around the corner, we discuss haunted CRE properties in the New York City area.
Episode Notes:
When will the other shoe drop? (0:59)
Recent CMBS pricing (3:35)
Notable CRE stories this week (8:35)
A spike in rent concessions (10:49)
The outlook for the distressed debt market (15:49)
Deal of the Week (21:01)
Deal of the Weak and retail valuations (24:17)
The latest of returning to the office (28:53)
Breaking down a “loss waiting to happen” (34:55)
Haunted CMBS properties (40:18)
10/29/2020 • 42 minutes, 58 seconds
41. Borrowers Giving Back the Keys to Their Properties in Droves, 6 Month Corporate CLO Credit Cycle
Our loyal listeners may recall that we recently discussed creating a list of CMBS loans for which the borrower has indicated a willingness to return the collateral to the lender. In this week's episode, we analyze the data behind borrowers looking to give back their keys, the preliminary October CMBS delinquency numbers, and noteworthy valuation cuts. In the last 6 months, corporate CLOs have arguably gone through a full credit cycle. Andrew Jacobs, Head of Structured Finance at Trepp, takes us through the various acts that we have witnessed.
Episode Notes:
The fragile and uneven recovery (1:05)
Preliminary October delinquency numbers (9:06)
New and noteworthy valuation cuts (14:23)
Borrowers giving back their keys in droves (21:48)
Hotel subscription models (26:35)
Deal of the Week (35:33)
A 6 month Corporate CLO credit cycle (37:37)
Holiday retail innovation (45:09)
10/22/2020 • 47 minutes, 16 seconds
40. The Impact of COVID-19 from a Rating Agency’s Perspective with Eric Thompson from KBRA
In a special episode, we welcome Eric Thompson, Global Head of Structured Finance at Kroll Bond Rating Agency and Chair-Elect of the CRE Finance Council, to discuss the differences between this pandemic and the Great Financial Crisis, rating new CMBS deals, potential structural changes coming out of this crisis, and challenges that come with a high volume of forbearances.
Episode Notes:
Comparisons to the Great Financial Crisis (1:22)
Structural changes coming out of this recession? (3:40)
Rating new CMBS issuance during the pandemic (10:59)
Resilient property types (15:12)
The vibe in New York City (16:43)
Challenges with a high volume of forbearances (21:00)
10/20/2020 • 32 minutes, 1 second
39. Retail Property Valuations, The Big Takeaways from Q3 Bank Earnings, Shadow Delinquencies
The big bank Q3 earning reports this week show us that banks with a higher concentration in the capital markets may be weathering the storm better than their peers. In this week's episode, we break down bank earnings, retail property valuations, shadow delinquencies, hotel exposure by MSA, and the potential reduced demand for office space. The podcast team also shares their personal dress codes for remote work.
Episode Notes:
Consumer and investor sentiment (1:01)
Retail property valuations (4:29)
Shadow delinquency rates (24:22)
Hotel exposure by MSA (32:33)
A reduced demand for office space? (35:24)
UK market round-up (39:42)
Deal of the week (48:09)
Bank earnings in Q3 (51:15)
Our dress code for remote work (60:00)
10/15/2020 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 53 seconds
38. Key CRE Metrics for Assessing the Recovery with KC Conway, Chief Economist at CCIM
We welcome KC Conway, Chief Economist at CCIM, to discuss his predictions for the market, key CRE metrics for assessing the recovery, the convergence of retail and industrial, the increased focus on ESG, areas of opportunity, and the impact of the U.S. election and potential regulatory changes on CRE.
Episode Notes:
The vibe in Georgia (1:55)
A W shaped recovery (3:30)
Key CRE metrics to watch (13:30)
The convergence of retail and industrial (21:22)
Increased focus on ESG (24:43)
Areas of opportunity in CRE (30:41)
The impact of the election on CRE (32:53)
Amid the disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic, there have been a number of trends that have directly impacted demand in the self-storage sector. In this week's episode, we analyze the “recession-resistant” self-storage market, the surge in retail and lodging special servicing rates, and the loan payoff report. Manus Clancy also hands out his highly coveted Tom Petty “I Won’t Back Down” awards.
Episode Notes:
Are we losing stimulus momentum? (0:57)
The surge in retail and lodging in special servicing (5:17)
Self-Storage: Analyzing a "recession-resistant" sector (13:25)
Economic indicators to watch (18:13)
Movie theater CLO exposure (21:03)
The Tom Petty “I Won’t Back Down” awards (28:30)
The loan payoff report (36:21)
Hotel loans coming to market (46:01)
Certain provisions of the CARES Act provided community banks a delay in the implementation of CECL (current expected credit losses). In this week's episode, we take a deep dive into the world of CECL, the declining CMBS delinquency rate, recent CRE valuations, and CMBS issuance and pricing. We also discuss some creative solutions for celebrating Halloween this year.
Episode Notes:
Positive news amidst uncertainty (1:01)
The declining CMBS delinquency rate (10:19)
Recent CMBS issuance and pricing (22:49)
Looking at recent CRE valuations (32:24)
Analyzing office lease data (40:00)
European market round-up (41:57)
Deal of the Week (45:16)
CECL 101 (47:18)
10/1/2020 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 16 seconds
35. Performance of CRE Bank Loans vs CMBS Loans, A Look at Occupancy Rates, The Regulatory Roundup
Since the beginning of the pandemic, reported occupancy rates have remained healthy in the office and multifamily property sectors. However, there are two types of occupancy to consider: physical and economic. In this week's episode, we welcome Lonnie Hendry, Head of Advisory Services at Trepp, to break down occupancy rate calculations, the latest regulatory issues, the performance of CRE loans in bank portfolios vs CMBS, and growth in the single family rental market.
Episode Notes:
The regulatory roundup (1:09)
Performance of CRE loans in bank portfolios vs CMBS (14:13)
The big CRE stories this week (22:33)
A look at the single family rental market (32:14)
Continued uncertainty in the office market (40:24)
Physical vs economic occupancy rates (49:05)
Deal of the week (52:23)
Bankruptcies with CLO exposure (56:23)
9/24/2020 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 13 seconds
34. Takeaways from Mid-Month CMBS Delinquency Report, A Mixed Bag of Office News, Loan Deferrals 101
In the office market, we’re seeing the fits and starts of a physical return to work play out this week. In this episode, we discuss the mixed bag of office news, takeaways from the mid-month CMBS delinquency report, the first case we’ve seen of a loan deferral with no advancing, and what the holiday season might look like in retail this year.
Episode Notes:
A relief bill for CRE is looking very unlikely (1:10)
Mid-month CMBS delinquency numbers (6:05)
Amazon entering the luxury space (15:07)
UK retail news (19:14)
The fits and starts of returning to the office (22:07)
Deal of the Week (36:12)
A loan deferral with no advancing (40:07)
CLO News: Delta and Chuck E. Cheese (45:12)
What will the holiday season look like for retail? (49:58)
9/17/2020 • 51 minutes, 53 seconds
33. Predictions for the Future of CRE Finance, Problems in Multifamily, a Wave of Retail News
Over the last six months, we’ve covered the movements of the CRE finance sector. Looking forward, what changes could we see in the market as a result of the pandemic and the flash recession? In this week's episode, we discuss potential changes in CRE finance, problems in the multifamily sector, the wave of retail news, student housing loans, and strategic defaults in bank loan portfolios. Continuing with our music theme from last week, Manus is feeling nostalgic for the days live Allman Brothers shows.
Episode Notes:
Latest on the pandemic relief bill (1:14)
A wave of retail news (8:34)
Potential problems in multifamily (19:38)
The return to school: student housing loans (28:34)
Banks returning to the office (31:18)
Deal of the week (43:12)
Strategic defaults in bank loan portfolios (45:37)
The future of CRE finance (48:17)
The return of vinyl (55:26)
9/10/2020 • 58 minutes, 10 seconds
32. Hotel Valuations, Increasing Focus on the Office Sector, Treasury Yield 101
We discuss the CDC’s new eviction moratorium, the Financial Times story covering stress in the CRE market through the lens of a CMBS investor, the increasing focus on the office sector, and hotel valuations in this environment. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped this week after its eight-week high, which spurred Manus’ thoughts for a deep dive. In honor of Labor Day Weekend, the team provides its list of road trip songs befitting of the year 2020.
Episode Notes:
The CDC’s eviction moratorium (0:59)
Signs of stress in the CRE market (12:06)
A deep dive into CMBS delinquency data (14:01)
The increasing focus on the office sector (19:43)
Hotel valuations in this environment (28:00)
Retail news from the UK (34:18)
Deal of the week (41:09)
Treasury yield 101 (43:30)
The worst songs of all-time (49:34)
9/2/2020 • 59 minutes, 27 seconds
31. CMBS Delinquency Rate Sees Another Big Decline, Underwritten vs Actual NOIs, Top Secondary MSAs
In a normal summer, August results in lighter volume (and more volatility). Of course, this has been a summer like none other. In this week's episode, we break down the macro trends, the most recent CMBS delinquency data, potential forbearances, retail as “the falling knife,” and the top secondary MSAs for CRE investment. Inspired by Bruce Springsteen, Manus explains the similarities between Texaco road maps and the early CMBS mega deals.
Episode Notes:
Not your typical August (1:11)
Takeaways from this month’s delinquency data (10:45)
Is retail the “falling knife”? (14:39)
A data-driven approach to assessing property values (22:44)
The debate on when to return to the office (26:48)
The CRE Deal of the Week (38:03)
Top secondary MSAs for CRE investment (42:20)
Comparing underwritten vs actual NOI (44:58)
Life insurance commercial return index surges in Q2 (50:57)
CLO exposure to college cafeterias (52:37)
8/27/2020 • 56 minutes, 39 seconds
30. A Data-Driven Approach to Assessing Property Values with Fritz Kaegi, Cook County Assessor
We welcome Fritz Kaegi, Cook County Assessor and former portfolio manager, to discuss CRE property valuations in Chicago, reforming the tax assessment process, the impact of COVID-19 on assessments, and his experience transitioning from the private sector to public office.
Episode Notes:
Assessing CRE property values in Chicago (5:03)
Reforming the assessment process(8:58)
The biggest challenge during Fritz’ first year in office (11:01)
Generating transparent property valuations (16:45)
The impact of COVID on CRE valuations (21:38)
From the private sector to public office (26:43)
The current vibe in Chicago (30:54)
Opportunities in industrial (34:31)
For additional resources from the Cook County Assessor's Office, visit trepp.com/the-treppwire-podcast
8/26/2020 • 37 minutes, 16 seconds
29. Fresh CRE Delinquency Data, CMBS Loan Modifications 101, the Flurry of Hotel and Retail News
We examine August CMBS remittance data and what the early delinquency numbers are telling us about the state of the recovery. We dig into big box retail earnings, the flurry of hotel headlines this week, and underwritten NOIs. Professor Manus Clancy also takes us to school for a lesson on CMBS loan modifications.
Episode Notes:
Big box retail earnings (0:58)
Early indications from August CMBS remittance data (8:03)
Hotel (and AirBnB) headlines (17:08)
Intriguing stories in the office sector (24:34)
CRE Deal of the Week (31:06)
Analyzing underwritten NOIs (33:23)
CMBS loan modifications 101 (42:23)
CLO exposure to private prison operators (48:38)
Will college reopenings last? (53:41)
8/20/2020 • 57 minutes, 24 seconds
28. The Economic Impact of COVID-19 on CRE with Ryan Severino, Chief Economist at JLL
We welcome Ryan Severino, Chief Economist at JLL, to discuss government stimulus, potential demographic and systemic changes, “pre-existing conditions” in CRE, the Presidential election’s impact on the markets, and the future of higher education.
Episode Notes:
Too much or too little government stimulus? (3:11)
The election’s potential impact on the markets (11:16)
Relief for the hotel industry? (14:49)
Creative disruption (18:33)
Potential demographic and systemic changes (23:09)
“Pre-existing conditions” in CRE (28:38)
How an economist’s life has changed (32:37)
Economic indicators is Ryan looking at? (35:56)
The future of secondary education (40:08)
8/18/2020 • 47 minutes, 57 seconds
27. Analyzing Underwritten NOIs, Updates on the Lodging and Retail Sectors, Appraisal Reductions
Five months into the pandemic, the lodging and retail sectors have been battered. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down recent news and performance in those sectors. We also discuss underwritten NOIs, appraisal reductions, the CRE “Deal of the Week,” our new Tom Petty “I Won’t Back Down” index, and whether or not we’ll be going to the movie theater anytime soon.
Episode Notes:
Unemployment and a second stimulus (0:53)
Is the glass half empty or half full for the economic recovery? (3:16)
Looking at underwritten NOIs (9:27)
Simon Property Group and Amazon (21:18)
An update on the lodging sector (30:53)
The Tom Petty “I Won’t Back Down” index (34:00)
CRE Deal of the Week (36:24)
Appraisal reductions explained (40:46)
AMC Theaters reopening (48:59)
8/13/2020 • 53 minutes, 44 seconds
26. The Big Takeaways from REIT Earnings Season
We welcome Orest Mandzy, Managing Editor of CRE Direct News, to share the big takeaways from REIT earnings season. With Orest’s REIT expertise, we dig into performance by sector - hotel, retail, multifamily and office. We also discuss the growing forbearance tally, noteworthy stories in the corporate CLO market, and our “Deal of the Week.”
Episode Notes:
Observations from Philly (1:12)
The next round of stimulus relief (5:47)
Clobbered hotel REITs (12:20)
Are retail REITs doing any better? (20:22)
Occupancy impacting multifamily REITs yet? (24:22)
Mortgage REIT performance (31:16)
A look at office REITs (37:14)
Deal of the Week (46:27)
Forbearance tally continues to grow (48:03)
Noteworthy stories in the Corporate CLO market (54:32)
Will virtual education work? (56:17)
8/6/2020 • 1 hour, 13 seconds
25. Deep Dive into HOPE Act & 1031 Exchange, Shadow Vacancy Rates, Big Drop in CMBS Delinquencies
We welcome Lonnie Hendry, Head of Advisory Services at Trepp, for a deep dive into the HOPE Act and the potential impacts of eliminating the 1031 Exchange. We also analyze the big drop in the CMBS delinquency rate and shadow vacancy rates in the office market. In our new “Deals of the Week” segment, we highlight notable CRE transactions across the country.
Episode Notes:
Observations from Texas (1:16)
The big drop in CMBS delinquency rates (3:00)
What’s happening with JC Penney? (13:22)
Deals of the Week (17:33)
Shadow office vacancy rates (22:48)
Breaking down the HOPE act (31:34)
A deep dive into the 1031 exchange (43:46)
Concerns in the CLO market (48:01)
No Black Friday shopping this year (51:50)
7/30/2020 • 54 minutes, 34 seconds
24. The State of the Distressed CRE Debt Market with Donald Sheets from Broadshore Capital Partners
We welcome Donald Sheets, Managing Director at Broadshore Capital Partners to break down the current state of the CRE debt market. In a wide-ranging conversation, we discuss the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street, underwriting office loans in this climate, evaluating investment opportunities, the CRE “lending pie,” and the current landscape of student housing. Don also shares his takeaways from a cross-country road trip adventure during the pandemic.
Episode Notes:
The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street (2:07)
Who’s selling loans? (8:31)
Pricing loans in the office market (11:15)
Don’s cross-country pandemic road trip (16:43)
What investments is the market offering? (22:05)
Will the CRE lending pie shrink or grow? (28:41)
Distressed asset potential in the multifamily space (33:20)
The landscape of student housing and higher education (36:00)
7/28/2020 • 45 minutes, 59 seconds
23. Signs of Progress and Peril in the US and European CRE and CLO Markets
We welcome Vivek-Anand Dattani, VP of Commercial Operations from Trepp’s London office, to examine signs of progress and peril in the US and European CRE and CLO markets. We also discuss the preliminary July CMBS delinquency data, revisit the retail-heavy CMBX 6 index, and look at the lasting impacts of The Dodd-Frank Act. Last but certainly not least, Joe McBride delivers a special ode to Winston Churchill.
Episode Notes:
Signs of progress and peril in U.S. CRE (3:35)
What we’re seeing in Europe (10:26)
Preliminary July CMBS delinquency data (21:44)
The State of the European CMBS market (28:00)
Revisiting the retail-heavy CMBX 6 index (34:18)
The potential long-term global impact of remote work (41:27)
Battered companies with CLO exposure (45:33)
The 10 year anniversary of Dodd-Frank (50:56)
The return of sports!!! (54:28)
Joe’s ode to Winston Churchill (57:25)
We’re only mid-way into July, but early indications are that delinquency rates are improving. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the factors behind a potentially declining CMBS delinquency rate, noteworthy CRE headlines of the week, the CMBX 10 index, shifts in the office market, and takeaways from bank earnings.
Episode Notes:
Signs of a tepid recovery (1:10)
Improving CMBS delinquency rates? (6:11)
Noteworthy CRE loan headlines this week (13:04)
Digging into CMBX 10 (18:58)
Manus and Joe’s PSA: Wear a mask (22:31)
Back to school? (26:07)
Shifting trends in the office market (29:22)
Takeaways from bank earnings (33:03)
“Necessity is the mother of invention” (35:54)
7/16/2020 • 37 minutes, 59 seconds
21. Legal & Regulatory Challenges in CRE with Rick Jones, Finance & Real Estate Partner, Dechert LLP
We welcome Rick Jones, Partner and Co-Chair of Dechert’s finance and real estate practice. Under his leadership, the 150 attorney practice focuses on sophisticated capital markets and mortgage finance transactions, providing lenders with innovative deal structuring, creative financing strategies and efficient execution. In this episode, we discuss structural changes that may come out of this crisis, a federal bailout for CRE, the potential impacts of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and changes to CRE legal work in this environment.
Episode Notes:
Comparing this crisis to the Great Recession (0:34)
Structural changes coming out of this recession? (2:05)
How has COVID-19 changed the type of legal work in CRE? (4:02)
The equilibrium between borrowers and lenders (5:38)
A federal bailout for the lodging industry? (7:30)
Lending winners and losers coming out of this environment (12:02)
Potential impacts of the upcoming U.S. presidential election (14:48)
The shifting needs of office tenants (16:48)
Future of CECL? (18:22)
Where is the systemic risk? (20:19)
Predictions for conferences resuming (23:16)
Takeaways from Mr. Jones’ conversation with Sam Zell (25:57)
The force majeure battle (27:22)
7/14/2020 • 29 minutes, 11 seconds
20. The Impacts of COVID-19 at the Mid-Year: Fleeting Eclipse or A New Dark Age?
We are officially past the half year mark, which means the release of our bi-annual report in collaboration with CRE Direct. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss our Mid-Year report and the magnitude of the pandemic’s effects across the hardest hit sectors. We also analyze the recent push for CMBS relief, CRE loan default and loss projections, the European CLO and CMBS markets, and Manus Clancy’s revised bucket list.
Episode Notes:
Is this week’s glass half empty or half full for the economic recovery? (1:02)
Retail headlines and the borrower “ring of honor” (7:30)
The push for CMBS relief (14:30)
Potential legal and regulatory impacts of COVID-19 (23:47)
The Mid-Year report (25:56)
Analyzing CRE Loan Defaults & Loss Rates: Serious Challenges Ahead (30:46)
An update on the European CLO and CMBS markets (35:51)
Manus Clancy’s revised bucket list (38:48)
7/9/2020 • 42 minutes, 20 seconds
19. CMBS Delinquency Rate Nears All-Time High, Hotel Debt Relief, Takeaways from Bank Stress Tests
At one point during the month of June, it appeared that a new all-time high for CMBS delinquencies would be reached. The final numbers posted at the end of the reporting cycle, however, showed that the 2012 high still remains the peak (for the time being). In this week’s episode, we dig into this month’s delinquency report, potential relief options for hotel owners, takeaways from the Fed’s bank stress tests, green shoots for corporate CLO investors, and the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Episode Notes:
Is the glass half empty or half full for the economic recovery? (1:10)
CMBS delinquency rate nears all-time high (14:00)
Reaction to Barry Sternlicht’s “extreme distress” comments (17:57)
Relief for hotel owners? (24:28)
Retail headlines of the week (31:26)
Takeaways from the Fed’s bank stress tests (34:56)
Green shoots for corporate CLO investors (39:44)
The Fourth of July hot dog eating contest (43:55)
7/1/2020 • 47 minutes, 25 seconds
18. Surprises in MSA Delinquencies, Congressional Request for CMBS Borrower Relief, “Problem Banks”
The economic recovery: A glass half full or half empty? We examine the congressional request for CMBS borrower relief, delinquency rates by MSA, retail stories that caught our eye, the future of affordable housing, the increase in “problem banks,” and the importance of CLOs to the broader market.
Episode Notes:
Is the glass half empty or half full for the economic recovery? (1:03)
The congressional request for CMBS borrower relief (6:42)
Surprises in delinquency rates by MSA (13:33)
Retail stories that caught our eye (23:59)
The future of affordable housing (28:48)
The FDIC’s reported increase in “problem banks” (32:17)
Why CLOs are so crucial to the broader market (38:38)
Vegas baby, Vegas? (42:25)
6/25/2020 • 45 minutes, 30 seconds
17. The Future of CRE with Brian Stoffers, Global President at CBRE and MBA Chairman
We welcome Brian Stoffers, Global President of Debt and Structured Finance at CBRE and 2020 Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). In a wide-ranging conversation, Mr. Stoffers discusses trends he’s seeing in the CRE lending space, property type performance, the impact of “forbearageddon,” and how the COVID-19 crisis will change commercial real estate in the long-term.
Episode Notes:
Outlook for the recovery (1:45)
Any notable valuation trends since the onset of COVID? (3:59)
What we’re seeing on the lending side (6:20)
A new normal in market share? (8:18)
Fannie and Freddie reserve requirements (10:30)
How has the office underwriting process changed? (12:35)
Differences in geographic performance? (15:33)
Impact of “forbearageddon” to investors (18:07)
Office “hub and spoke“ model (21:53)
Future of business travel (or lack thereof) (25:25)
The lending slow-down (29:48)
What does the deal pipeline look like? (35:50)
Investor appetite for ESG reporting (38:49)
6/23/2020 • 42 minutes, 8 seconds
16. Signs of Stress in Corporate CLO Market, Record-Breaking CMBS Delinquencies, Exodus from Cities
We welcome Andrew Jacobs, Head of Structured Finance at Trepp, to examine signs of stress in the corporate CLO market. We also discuss the potential record-breaking CMBS delinquency rates, the appraisal reduction process, this week’s major headlines in lodging and retail, and the migration from big cities. We also make weekend plans for a trip to the drive-in movies.
Episode Notes:
Record breaking CMBS delinquency rates? (4:04)
Spotlight on the CMBX 13 index (9:15)
This week’s lodging and retail headlines (11:05)
The appraisal reduction process (22:32)
Is the appeal of big cities wearing off? (27:15)
Signs of stress in the corporate CLO market (35:06)
Winners and losers in CLOs (40:24)
Drive-in movie theater weekend plans (45:17)
6/18/2020 • 47 minutes, 35 seconds
15. What CMBS Borrowers Need to Know in COVID Times
In this special episode, we welcome Tammy and David Goldfisher from The Henley Group, borrower advocates and experts in CMBS loan restructuring. With loan forbearance being top of mind for many in commercial real estate, Tammy and David share their insights into the borrower and special servicer negotiation process and discuss what they are seeing on the ground.
Episode Notes:
What type of forbearance agreements are happening right now? (5:19)
What makes a borrower negotiation successful? (9:53)
Negotiation process by property type (13:11)
Parallels to the last financial crisis (17:13)
Will retail borrowers be able to find relief? (22:44)
Predictions on potential structural changes in CMBS (27:56)
Challenges for borrowers in the special servicing process (29:55)
Macro-economic expectations (38:27)
6/16/2020 • 41 minutes, 26 seconds
14. More Bad Retail News, A Look at the CMBX 7 Index, Credit Supply Risk in Corporate CLOs
The wave of bad news in the retail market, what we expect to see in June CMBS remittance data, the CMBX 7 index, credit supply risk in the corporate CLO market and most importantly, our Father’s Day wish lists. Come for the market commentary, stay for the stories of playing Little League Baseball with Kevin James of “The King of Queens.”
Episode Notes:
Macro market news and our thoughts on the recovery (1:10)
More bad retail news (7:13)
What to expect in June CMBS delinquency data (12:26)
One third of all malls may be done? (13:44)
A scary survey on expiring leases (22:24)
Drilling down into the CMBX 7 index (26:31)
Credit supply risk in the corporate CLO market (29:23)
Our Father’s Day wish lists (32:20)
6/11/2020 • 35 minutes, 7 seconds
13. The Big Short of CMBX 6 with Dan McNamara and Catie McKee from MP Securitized Credit Partners
In this special episode, we welcome Principal Dan McNamara and Managing Director Catie McKee (aka the “Queen of Malls”) from MP Securitized Credit Partners. In what was dubbed “the next big short” by some, investors bought credit-default swaps against subordinate bonds in the CMBX 6 index, which has heavy concentrations of shopping mall and retail loans. Catie and Dan are well known for their bet against CMBX 6 and discuss the strategy and execution behind shorting U.S. malls.
Episode Notes:
The strategy behind shorting U.S. malls and CMBX 6 (2:05)
Performance expectations (9:36)
Systemic risk in CMBX (13:17)
Retailers that may survive the carnage (15:30)
The art of visiting malls (19:22)
Will more mall owners turn to “jingle mail”? (21:21)
Break-even pricing for in-line mall tenants (27:14)
Who will play Catie and Dan in a sequel of “The Big Short” (29:29)
6/8/2020 • 31 minutes, 38 seconds
12. Massive Spike in CMBS Delinquencies, Loan Forbearance Expectations, Office Exposure in CMBX 12
We break down the massive spike in CMBS delinquencies (the largest month-over-month increase we’ve seen since 2009), the financial performance of malls, loan forbearance expectations, office exposure in the CMBX 12 index, office loan refinance risk, an important court decision for the syndicated loan market, and what our summer vacations might look like.
Episode Notes:
Where are we in the economic recovery? (00:59)
The largest jump in CMBS delinquencies since 2009 (7:45)
Analyzing the financial performance of malls (13:36)
Loan forbearance expectations as we enter June (20:01)
Looking at the CMBX 12 index and office exposure (25:13)
Lease comp data reveals office loan refinance risk (29:51)
An important court decision: syndicated loans are not securities (32:58)
What will our summer vacations look like? (33:55)
6/5/2020 • 37 minutes, 46 seconds
11. Making Sense of the Retail Market with Jan Kniffen
In this special episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we welcome Jan Kniffen, CEO of J Rogers Kniffen Worldwide. As a retail consultant and a former retail executive with decades of experience in the industry, Mr. Kniffen helps us make sense of the current state of retail, its future in a post-COVID world, and potential opportunities in the market.
Episode Notes:
How will department stores and other non-essential retailers weather this downturn? (2:55)
What’s the future for regional department stores? (6:08)
What happens when a mall loses 20% of its tenants? (9:33)
Classic mall operators vs new players (12:49)
COVID related expenses impact on the bottom line (17:50)
Retail jobs post-COVID (27:23)
6/1/2020 • 31 minutes, 6 seconds
10. Two Schools of Thought on the Future of Office, Borrower Relief Options, CRE Delinquencies
We discuss borrower relief options, the two schools of thought on the future of office space, the newest data on CMBS delinquencies, the retail consumer, the ramifications of a big CLO buyer pulling out (for now), and our excitement for the reopening of both Disney World and the NHL.
Episode Notes:
Signs of hope in the market (0:53)
CMBS delinquencies continue to rise (7:44)
How borrowers can potentially seek relief (12:33)
Where will the future retail consumer be? (14:49)
Is office-centricity a thing of the past? (27:42)
“I’m going to Disney World!” (33:07)
A big Japanese CLO buyer pulls out (for now) (37:52)
The return of the NHL (43:10)
5/28/2020 • 46 minutes, 57 seconds
9. Digging into CMBX and Store Closures, New Performance Data on Lodging, Retail and Multifamily
We dig into bets on the CMBX index, retail performance and store closings, the new wave of CMBS servicer data for lodging and retail, self-storage’s status as a “recession-resistant business,” the outlook for student housing, and the quality of leveraged loan covenants.
Episode Notes:
A look at retail performance and store closings (2:30)
The new wave of CMBS servicer data for lodging and retail (6:49)
Digging into bets on the CMBX index (11:56)
Is self-storage a “recession-resistant business”? (22:43)
Potential student housing distress (27:00)
Has the quality of leveraged loan covenants deteriorated? (31:26)
The return of sports! (33:46)
5/21/2020 • 37 minutes, 57 seconds
8. The Impact of COVID-19 on CRE Valuations, the Next Wave of Delinquencies, New CMBS Issuance
We welcome Lonnie Hendry, VP of CRE Product Management at Trepp, to examine the impact of COVID-19 on CRE property valuations. We also discuss fresh servicer data that shows increases in hotel and retail delinquencies, new CMBS issuance and what it means for the market, commercial mortgage investment returns for life insurance companies, and revisions to the TALF program to include a broader range of leveraged loans.
Episode Notes:
New CMBS issuance and what it means for the market (2:12)
More store closures and what happens next (4:31)
Fresh data on hotel and retail loan delinquencies (9:00)
What impact does this market dislocation have on CRE property values? (16:23)
Looking at the drop in commercial mortgage returns for life insurance companies (29:59)
How much will the TALF program revisions help the leveraged loan market? (32:22)
The outlook for college football (and more importantly, student housing) this fall (35:53)
5/14/2020 • 45 minutes, 52 seconds
7. Assessing CRE Risk, The Next Steps for Hotel Loans, The Future of Retail and the Amazon Effect
More than half of the states are now moving toward a reopening, but we’re still dealing with news of increased infections and economic data that tells us we have a long way to go toward a recovery. Jobless claims fell slightly to 3.2 million last week and the markets reacted positively to that slight decline. In all, more than 33 million are out of work and with lockdowns lifted, all eyes in the CRE world are on retail and lodging performance.
In this week’s episode, we discuss how we assess CRE risk moving forward, the next steps in the recovery for hotels, the future of retail and the Amazon effect, takeaways from Warren Buffett and Sam Zell, performance in the corporate loan market and more.
Episode Notes:
Takeaways from this week’s macroeconomic data (0:55)
Words of wisdom from the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett and Sam Zell (4:03)
Retailer bankruptcies keep coming (8:13)
How can brick and mortar continue to compete with Amazon? (10:51)
Hotel performance and what happens next? (16:58)
Assessing CRE risk moving forward (23:17)
Looking at performance in the corporate loan market (30:15)
The human impact of the COVID-19 crisis (35:04)
Coping in our work from home environments (38:44)
5/7/2020 • 41 minutes, 7 seconds
6. The Rise in CRE Delinquencies, What Smart Money is Looking at, Signs of Life in Corporate Loans
This week, we discuss the rise in CRE delinquencies and the new way to interpret the numbers, what the smart money is looking at, the ongoing challenges in lodging, and signs of life in the corporate loan market, among many other things.
Episode Notes:
The scorecard for the CMBS and CRE industries (0:58)
A look at REIT earnings (6:20)
The rise in CMBS delinquencies (11:59)
What the smart money is looking at (13:33)
New numbers from Fannie and Freddie (16:04)
What's the future of co-working? (19:22)
Lessons for CRE from this week's tech earnings (23:24)
Digging into the lodging sector (26:56)
Signs of life in the corporate loan market (29:57)
Mother's Day recommendations (33:57)
4/30/2020 • 38 minutes
5. The Coming Wave of Distressed Assets, the Week in Retail and CMBX, More CLO Downgrades
Most CRE landlords who missed their April 1st payments have a 30 day grace period, but our preliminary data shows that 11%+ of CMBS loans will be 30 days delinquent when that grace period elapses, which would surpass the highest level hit during the Great Recession. We discuss the effect of oil prices on the broader market, the coming wave of distressed assets, forbearance requests, the week in retail and CMBX, CLO downgrades and more.
Episode Notes:
How will the drop in oil prices affect the broader market? (0:47)
Revisiting the bet for and against CMBX (5:15)
Assessing the scale of CMBS borrower relief requests (8:30)
This week in retail store closures (15:32)
What happens when tenants are allowed to break their lease? (19:20)
The revival of TALF in the current COVID-19 economy (24:53)
How are CLO managers dealing with leveraged loan downgrades? (31:59)
Where do we go from here? (36:33)
4/23/2020 • 40 minutes, 30 seconds
4. Sharp Increase in Non-Payment on Hotel and Retail Loans, Bank Earnings, Downgrade Risk in CLOs
We discuss the sharp increase in non-payment on hotel and retail loans, the discouraging macroeconomic data, takeaways from bank earnings reports, downgrade risk in CLOs, and what we're doing to keep our sanity.
Episode Notes:
The discouraging economic data (00:52)
Takeaways from bank earnings reports (02:23)
The sharp increase in non-payment on hotel and retail loans (07:20)
How are CMBS servicers and borrowers dealing with forbearance requests? (10:48)
The outlook for the multifamily and office sectors (14:42)
Downgrade risk in CLOs? (19:58)
What are we doing to keep our sanity? (27:56)
4/16/2020 • 30 minutes, 12 seconds
3. Predictions for the Economic Recovery, Potential Concerns in CMBS, A Look at Student Housing
In this week's episode, Manus Clancy, Senior Managing Director at Trepp, and Joe McBride, Head of CRE Finance at Trepp, discuss their predictions for the economic recovery, potential concerns in the CMBS market, the impact of COVID-19 on student and senior housing, CLO prices in the oil and gas sector, and everything else newsworthy from the week.
Episode Notes:
Predictions for the economic recovery (0:39) (0:39)
Potential concerns in the CMBS market? (4:30)
A look at student and senior housing (8:08)
The impact of COVID-19 on community banks (11:48)
Leveraged loan prices in the oil and gas sector (15:32)
News predictions for the holiday weekend (18:35)
An analogy between Forrest Gump’s shrimp business and balance sheet lenders (21:30)
4/8/2020 • 23 minutes, 37 seconds
2. Forecasting Retail and Lodging Performance, The "Big Short" against CMBX 6, Hidden Risks in CRE
In this week's episode, Manus Clancy, Senior Managing Director at Trepp, and Joe McBride, Head of CRE Finance at Trepp, discuss the challenges of forecasting retail and lodging performance, the "Big Short" against CMBX 6, hidden risks in CRE, and everything else newsworthy from the last week.
Episode Notes:
How is the stimulus bill going to move the market? (0:38)
How is all of this affecting the CMBS market? (4:51)
Forecasting the impact to retail and lodging (7:14)
Carl Icahn's "Big Short" against CMBX 6 retail loans (12:09)
How long until the remittance reports reflect the downturn? (17:44)
The Fed revived the 2008 TALF program – what were the learnings from the first iteration of TALF? (20:58)
Where is the hidden risk in CRE right now? (25:03)
What we should be watching in the CLO markets (28:43)
When will we return to the office? (30:40)
4/1/2020 • 32 minutes, 53 seconds
1. What Happened This Week? The Impact of COVID-19 on CRE, CMBS and CLOs
In this week's episode, Manus Clancy, Senior Managing Director at Trepp, and Joe McBride, Head of CRE Finance at Trepp, discuss the impact of COVID-19 on different aspects of the CRE, CMBS and CLO markets.
Episode Notes:
The Big Picture: What’s at Stake in CRE? (0:41)
The Impact of COVID-19 on Hotels (4:49)
The COVID-19 crisis compared to the 2008 financial crisis (9:53)
What’s going on in the world of CMBS? (15:35)
Why CLOs are more at-risk (17:34)
Potential long-term effects on CRE (19:01)