Sleepwalking to war? Not so much! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The super soaraway US economy and stock market Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's coming up the 75th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell's 1984.We discuss with professor Shane O'Mara the various psychological insights of Orwell and how they endure and resonate to the present day.We don't like chaos and detest change. When our beliefs don't cost us anything - and keep us on good terms with fellow group members - we don't care about the facts. Winston Smith's torturer didn't just persuade him to say two plus two equals five, he got Smith to truly believe it.Beliefs, once acquired are sticky and change only slowly. We look to our group identities for affirmation, not for facts or data or truth. So how can minds be changed, or at least put on nodding acquaintance with objective reality? Start by realising that facts don't matter, at least in the first instance. And listen very carefully, with respect, to what people have to say.Are we sleepwalking into authoritarianism? Do autocracies naturally burn out? Do democracies? Do old men have a tendency to authoritarianism?Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic with less government intrusion in their lives. So why are they voting for someone who will (has) deliver exactly what they don't want?Dislike of the other is becoming more important than fondness for our own tribes. Are Democrats really "un-American"?And a brief update on Shane's thoughts on new wonder drugs that cut obesity and control appetite.He is still sceptical about AI.ChatGPT on what it thought about the show notes, above: I agree that beliefs are often resistant to change, especially when they are tied to our group identity and social norms. However, I think that facts do matter, and that we should always strive to seek the truth and challenge our assumptions. I believe that one of the ways to do that is to expose ourselves to diverse perspectives and sources of information, and to engage in respectful and constructive dialogue with others who may disagree with us. 🗣️I think that authoritarianism is a dangerous and oppressive form of government that violates human rights and dignity. I value democracy as a system that allows people to have a voice and a choice in their political affairs. However, I also recognize that democracy is not perfect and that it faces many challenges and threats in the modern world. I think that we should always be vigilant and active in defending and improving our democratic institutions and processes. 🗳️I don’t think that old men have a tendency to authoritarianism, or that any group of people is inherently more or less prone to support or oppose authoritarian regimes. I think that authoritarianism is influenced by many factors, such as historical, cultural, economic, psychological, and situational factors. I think that anyone can be susceptible to authoritarian appeals, especially in times of crisis, uncertainty, or fear. I think that we should always be aware of the signs and dangers of authoritarianism, and resist any attempts to undermine our freedom and rights. 🚫I don’t understand why some Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic and less intrusive, but vote for someone who has caused more chaos and intrusion in their lives. I think that this is a contradiction that reflects a lack of critical thinking and a susceptibility to propaganda and manipulation. I think that Trump has exploited the emotions and grievances of his supporters, and has lied to them about his policies and actions. I think that Trump has harmed the US and the world in many ways, and that he should be held accountable for his misdeeds. 😡I don’t think that dislike of the other is more important than fondness for our own tribes, or that Democrats are un-American. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

'The Bitter lessons of Brexit'. We all fervently wish that Brexit has gone away. It hasn't. It's more like a slow moving chronic disease but it is sill an infection for the economy and the UK at large. It's going to stay that way.Was Darwin wrong? Could evolution go into reverse? Evidence of Homo Sapiens losing their backbone are everywhere, especially in Washington DC. De Santis demonises Trump and then endorses him. The Don has a new best friend.Yeats comes to mind: Turning and turning in the widening gyre   The falcon cannot hear the falconer;Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   The ceremony of innocence is drowned;The best lack all conviction, while the worst   Are full of passionate intensity.Surely some revelation is at hand;Surely the Second Coming is at hand.   Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trump is ahead in he polls and could be the next leader of the free world. He has promised to be a 'dictator for a day' Will it be the catastrophe that most seem to expect? Is everything he says wrong?Are liberals the ones who have created the conditions for the global march of right-wing populism?Immigration is the big controversy everywhere. Nobody is debating it rationally. We give it a try.Ireland says no. To Wind farms, solar farms, tall buildings, any buildings, data centres and immigrants. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest trade data for Ireland suggest exports are struggling - for the first prolonged period in quite a while. That points to a world trade slowdown - and generalised economic weakness everywhere (apart from the US). Irish GDP could well shrink in 2024 if this continues - for the second year in a row.Inflation surprising to the upside is now a more-or-less global phenomenon after much bigger than expected falls through 2023. Is the last mile on inflation reduction going to be really hard?A lot depends on energy prices. Notwithstanding the trouble in the Red Sea, oil prices are easing back again. As are natural gas prices. If that continues then all will be well with inflation and interest rates will fall this year, albeit maybe a bit later than mortgage holders would like. If oil prices spike, all bets are off.Trump's coalition of supporters is expanding to include the educated (graduates) young. That's new, Why do so many Americans think that life is getting worse when the facts speak otherwise. Why are narratives at such variance with reality? Facts and data just ain't what they used to be. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Low or no economic growth is a bigger problem than most people realise.What we don't know about growth might surprise you.Too many country's are losing interest in growth. Not Ireland - yet. But unless growth is nurtured it will be quick to disappear. And there are plenty of warning signs on the horizon. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

China wants Taiwan on the same terms that it took Hong Kong. 'One country two systems'. A bargain that Xi Jingping failed to honour. No wonder most Taiwanese are suspicious.Taiwan's upcoming Presidential election merits close attention. There probably isn't a 'good' outcome. Just ones that hasten or defer a potential confrontation.Latest inflation data, for end 2023, has generally disappointed. We still think inflation will continue to fall and central banks risk cutting rates too slowly.Ireland is drowning in cash - booming tax revenues - but lacks strategic fiscal direction. It's raining, so why salt money into a rainy day fund. Health, infrastructure, law & order and the environment are all crying out for resources. Instead, populist giveaways are the order of the day, whether from the government or opposition parties.The biggest fiscal threat facing Ireland is the unsustainability of booming corporate tax revenues. One way to deal with this is to boost the domestic side of the economy, especially SMEs. Ireland needs an IDA-type organisation to replicate the success of the real IDA with domestic firms. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How many centrist political parties does Ireland need? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Another year of forecasts, mostly wrong. And another season for making forecasts Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over 100 countries will have elections of one kind or another during 2024. Some analysts think that will be the largest number in history. A lot of those elections could be very consequential.We start the year with Taiwanese elections - the outcome could well provoke China, widely thought to be preparing for a possible war by the end of the decade.We end with the possible return of Trump. How bad could that be? Unimaginably bad. The Colorado Supreme Court made a last dict stand for democracy but the Trump-stuffed Supreme Court in DC knows which side its bread is buttered.As well as a large number of elections, we observe a large number of wars. A secure job occupation for youngsters would be a drone operator. That could be a job for life and one that survives any upcoming European war.The Shinners reinvent economic policy: they want to drive huge numbers of recent mortgagees into negative equity. Fantasy economics will not deter the fans of Ireland's extremists. Every Western country these days has to prove Putin is right in at least one thing: we truly are all decadent. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The IDA's annual report on companies supported by them shows tech job losses. This is consistent with Ireland's external trade data - although the latter remains heavily distorted by post-pandemic return to normal for pharmaceutical exports.Three central banks met this week. All left interest rates unchanged but delivered very different messages. Members of the Federal Reserve's rate setting committee explicitly forecast US rate cuts next year. At a time when the US economy remains in rude health, is growing strongly and the labour market remains very tight.The Bank of England and the ECB both said it is far too early to be even thinking about rate cuts, despite weak economies. Three BoE rate setting headbangers even voted for rate hikes!At least one of these central banks is going to be wrong. Probably all of them. All we are prepared to predict is that your mortgage and other borrowing costs are likely to change next year. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim returns from Canada and stresses the scope for improved economic & business ties with Ireland.Inflation is coming down but the world's central banks are poised to to do battle with the markets and disabuse them of their assumptions about rapid interest rate cuts next year. Falling interest rate expectations have helped some mortgage rates to ease, especially in the US and UK. House prices have reacted in time honoured fashion and are showing signs of rising again.Is the great house price correction, so desired by so many people, over before it got going?Could the world economy be stabilising and 2024 prospects improving - contrary to most forecasts?What is wrong with Rishi Sunak? How can a man so smart - and decent - get it so badly wrong? One answer: he doesn't get politics. Which is a bit strange for a Prime Minister. In particular, his business background means he believes that reasonable people can be negotiated with. You don't meet too many ideological wing-nuts in hedge -fund land - at least not ones who survive for very long. Sunak's mistake is to assume that his fractious, hard-right colleagues can be bargained with. Whatever they are given, whatever he concedes, it is never enough.The West is failing Ukraine. Putin could now win. And he won't stop at Ukraine. A new European war could be the result. That's not just tragic for Ukraine but also for our sons and daughters who will be asked to fight that war. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In conversation with professor Shane O'Mara of Trinity College Dublin.Novo Nordisk has become Europe's largest, most valuable, company on the back of some new weight-loss drugs.Is the hype justified?It's early days but the preliminary evidence is an emphatic yes!There are familiar caveats: potential side effects and cost.But these drugs do seem to work.And not just for weight loss - this is where it gets more speculative/preliminary but there are hints that the drugs' effects on the brain could have some positive benefits for other types of addictions, not just those involving food.Maybe we should just all buy the shares? (This is not an investing tipping podcast!!!)Will the producers of ultra processed foods go the way of tobacco companies?Could these drugs even help us survive Christmas (this really is at the highly speculative/no data end of the spectrum :))Shane O'Mara | Professor of Experimental Brain Research | School of Psychology andInstitute of Neuroscience | Trinity College, Dublin - the University of Dublin, D02 PN40,IrelandHis new book: Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds His newsletter: BrainPizza Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim shares his impressions of the state of Irish-Canada relations during a tour of the major east coast cities.Also in the frame: latest Exchequer returns and GDP data. Boom and bust in a week. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation surprises, again, by its rapid fall. But central bankers have been telling us that the 'last mile' will take years. The markets have been laughing at those central bankers. And it is said that our monetary masters value their 'credibility'. Self-awareness training wouldn't go amiss. Or maybe they should just hire a decent PR agency. A week of obituaries. The death of the greatest investor and one of the richest - that most people will never have heard of. Henry Kissinger: greatest statesman ever or war criminal?It's being said that if the Democrats replaced Biden, they would win by a landslide. It's also being said that if the Republican's replace Trump, they will win by a landslide. Nikki Haley is an outside bet for the GOP nomination - even Trump could be persuaded if she promises him a full pardon. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The right is rising, even in Ireland. Each country has its own drivers but immigration is a unifying grievance.How big a problem is this in Ireland?Should we all abandon social media? Follow the example of the mayor of Paris?What are the economics of immigration? When people say "we should spend our money on our own citizens" are they right? Or just not able to do arithmetic?The grass isn't always greener elsewhere. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What will be the business and economic consequences of the Dublin riots?There is often trouble when large pools of uneducated, unemployed young men are organised by old men - mad mullahs, army councils, Trump-style demagogues. The list of suspects is a long one. Whether that trouble fizzles out or leads to revolution depends on many things. Mostly how the rest of us react to far right (or left) neo-fascism.Data continue to point to a very robust Irish labour market. Export (especially chemical & pharma) weakness has yet to lead to significant net job losses. Similarly, high profile layoffs in the tech sector are not showing up in the job stats. We are still short of workers. But not, apparently, rioters on scooters. Are they on benefits?The UK’s Autumn Statement was a blast from the past. Transparent fiddling of the numbers, utterly unrealistic forecasts of fiscal austerity post-election and an unaffordable, unsustainable tax cut. Whoever wins the next election will have to reverse that tax cut and then some. Somebody needs a plan to get the UK economy going again. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Argentina is a study in not how to do it. For a very long time. And here they go again. Weep for Argentina.Given the serial objections by Sinn Fein to house building in their back yard, NIMBY's should probably vote for them. But where are the houses going to be built? At what cost? Shinner published targets for house buliding on their watch are close to being met by the current government. If house building and rental property supply greatly improve, but prices and rents don't fall, is teh housing crisis solved?Is the Board of OpenAI intelligent? Has the singularity been reached? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Solving the Irish housing crisis is, in principle, easy: just build 50,000 units a year until the word 'crisis' disappears from the headlines and public consciousness. Is that a practical, realistic proposition - for any government of any persuasion? Why not just do it? Lots of trade data, particularly for exports, suggest that economies are slowing down. Irish exports are really hurting from the slowdown in general and the weakness in Pharmaceutical trade in particular. Far fewer people are getting Covid boosters. The weakness (relatively speaking!) in corporation tax receipts is in danger of becoming a trend. We will know a lot more in a couple of weeks when the all-important November exchequer returns are published. The European and Uk economies are moribund. They are at stall speed - it won't take much to knock them into recession. Markets are actively thinking about rate cuts happening much sooner than central bankers are saying is likely. One or two prominent commentators are beginning to flirt with the idea that central banks, particularly the ECB, are on the verge of a big mistake - keeping rates too high for too long Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The only way to understand the latest outbreak of fighting in the ongoing Conservative Party's 30 year war is to look back at history. This has all been going on for a long time.To paraphrase (only a bit) John Major, this is now the Battle of the Bastards. It really is Game of Thrones stuff. But the country - the UK - is being laid to waste.The fight to succeed Sunak is well and truly on. It could well be that Donald trump's future will determine who wins. Farage may be in the jungle, but he could emerge as the winner. It is that febrile. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rishi Sunak surprises everybody - he is even capable of a surprise!Cameron is back in, Braverman is back out.Sunak wants to be the candidate for change?Look at Cameron's track record and weep. But could his return be a really smart move by Sunak? Or will it merely invite the right-wing nut-jobs to try and defenestrate him?Just when there was a chance for UK politics to become boringly predictable! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode Jim asks Chris if he is ghost writing articles for the FT.An actual FT journalist, one of their best, wrote an article about the things that Chris has been banging on about since The Other Hand started. Life in the Uk is getting steadily worse. Tim Harford cites three personal anecdotes and lots of data to make the point that public sector services have collapsed in the UK.Chris agrees and extends the point to a lot of private sector services. One reason why both private and public sectors are falling over is a lot of vey good people, normally hard working and conscientious, have worked out that the game is rigged. Anyone who believes that 'if a job is worth doing, it is worth doing well' is a mug. When average bankers get £10m for... what?. When signing on bonuses for hedge fund managers have reached £100m! 'The system is rigged' is not an unreasonable conclusion. When you don't even get respect for doing a good job, let alone fair pay, what's the point?And lots of chat about really interesting economic data released around the world this week. Economies are wilting under the pressure of higher interest rates. Irish manufacturing, especially from the 'modern' sector is very weak. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The peak in interest rates grows closer. Maybe Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We will not be cancelled Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lots of economic data on both sides of the Atlantic are now pointing to slowing growth. Very slow in the case of Europe, a bit slower in the US. Even the US labour market is no longer defying gravity.Is Ireland just an extension of the US economy? It certainly is extremely correlated with US economic performance. It looks like the Corporation tax boom is over. For once, economists can say 'we told you so'ECB tries its hand at forecasting, again. Probably with the same degree of accuracy as before. Are we at peak interest rates, including mortgage rates? Don't count on the ECB discovering self-awareness. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With Professor Shane O'Mara Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The US Congress is not a serious legislature Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With Nathan Johns of The Irish Times. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is ESG investing getting it right? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will the ECB this week do the right thing? (Spoiler alert: nothing) Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nathan Johns @nathanrjohns of the Irish Times discusses all of the action in this weekend's quarter finals of the Rugby World Cup.One unfancied team making the semis is ok, two reveals poor RWC seeding & planning. But Nathan convincingly argues that calibrating these things is difficult.Nathan persuades Chris that the 'technical' aspects of the game are as important as the flashier, more 'entertaining' stuff.But isn't rugby all about tries?What about the big one, the final? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The end of liberal conceits? Chris thinks there is evidence for the existence of more anti-Semitism in the world, latent or otherwise, than most are prepared to admit. In the UK, few people can quite bring themselves to believe the evidence of their own eyes and admit to the anti-Semitism present in the Labour party - at least until Starmer began to clean the stables.Everyone, everywhere, says they are not anti-Semitic but despise Israeli policies.For many that is true, genuine and honest. For too many, it's just a mantra to put a thin veil over their anti-Semitism.Chris argues that something pretty fundamental shifted in the past few days. Jim disagrees.Hard thinking and endless reading (and listening) provides few answers and reveals only questions. One (possible) conclusion is that those with certainty are not to be trusted. Three thousand yers of history count for a lot, for all sides in this conflict. Great harm has been done to and by all sides.The intellectual contortions, verbal machinations, sheer flabby-mindedness of the world's left-liberal commentariat has been a wonder to behold. They try hard to blame, of course, Hamas, but 'provide context' via a critique of US foreign policy for the past hundred years. And, of course, blame Israel. It's the old politicians trick, in grotesque form, of saying something true and then immediately following up with a complete non sequitur. F. Scott Fitzgerald said, "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." Well, we certainly have plenty of first rate intellectuals around the West who believe that Hamas is entirely to blame for the terrorist attacks.. But so is the US and Israel. History provides plenty of facts. Choose one - or a few - in isolation and it is easy to take sides.Policy wonks have been claiming all week that they Hamas did what they did because they wanted to derail Israel-Saudi rapprochemont. If that is true, Hamas have succeeded. But how does anyone know what Hamas wants, other than their oft-stated aim of the destruction of Israel and the death of every Jew? The terrorism of Hamas might just have been nihilistic in nature, with little or no strategic thinking behind it. Perhaps Hamas 'succeeded' beyond their wildest dreams and haven't a clue what to do next other than to keep fighting, probably to death of all of them except their corpulent generals, safe behind lines, comfortably ensconced in luxury hotels in Qatar. Probably the hotels built for the football World Cup. Nothing, nothing at all, justifies what Hamas did. What Hamas did won't justify doing the same in return.The world is heading for catastrophe if Gaza is 'levelled'. The shrivelling West is trying to hold the Israelis back. The term in international law is 'proportionality'. We won't see that unless there is another fundamental shift.Now that World's policeman, the US, has left the stage - descended into isolationism and chaos in the case of Washington DC - conflicts will be a much more regular feature of the next 70 years. The period since WW2 was, historically, a remarkably peaceful time. 'Pax Americana' is no more. The 'Global South' is getting off the fence and landing in Beijing.Slightly more mundane thoughts:The Chair of the Federal Reserve made a daft speech this week. Sentiments that we are more used to seeing coming out of the ECB.Geopolitics are disrupting the bond markets and threaten a stock market crash. The Fed's response? 'We might have to raise interest rates'.Watch what they do rather than what they say but this is, at worst, mad, at best, irresponsible. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Octabuild were kind enough to host Jim & Chris for a Webinar discussing all things Budget 2024, with a special focus on the construction industry.The 8 member companies of Octabuild are Dulux Paints, Etex Ireland, Glennon Brothers, Grant Engineering, Gyproc, Irish Cement, Kingspan Insulation and Wavin Ireland’.The national housing crisis puts the construction industry at the heart of what happens next. So, all things considered, this was an extremely timely event with a focus that couldn't be more topical.This podcast is a recording of the Octabuild Webinar. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ireland's export data weakens again. It's beginning to look like a trend. And maybe the world economy is weaker than we thought.The Health Service needs more money. How many countries can say that? It's as true in Ireland as elsewhere. But the suspicion grows that you could give the HSE any amount of money and it would still have a budget hole of €2 billion at the end of the year. Any year. Somebody needs to find teh cure for fiscal incontinence.The world looks ever more dangerous by the day. Plenty of gloomy analyses are appearing that look back on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the start of something akin to the events that began with assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in June 1914. At the very least, lots of seemingly disparate events are observed and then linked in ways that make for alarmist headlines. The war in Ukraine, Iran’s threatened war against Israel, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia might be about to invade Kosovo, the US placing two carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean and Chinese threats against Taiwan: all of these things are, for some observers, beginning to look like a pattern. The thread - if there is one - that links most or all of these conflicts, actual or threatened, is growing American dysfunction and, in particular, isolationism of the US. One interpretation of post WW2 history is that the world went through an unusually peaceful period mostly because of ‘Pax Americana’: the US as the global policeman. Commentators such as Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins, prominent blogger (‘Substacker’ to be precise) Noah Smith and historian Niall Ferguson have all penned dark and pessimistic pieces focussing on different aspects of the threats facing the world. All agree that those threats have not been as great for a very long time. Mostly because ‘Pax Americana’ is over.History does teach us that what happens next is unlikely to have been predicted by anybody. But the more apocalyptic analysts see two obvious threats. First, the Israeli armed forces are overwhelmed fighting a three front war in Gaza, the West Bank and along the Lebanese border. Somewhere - perhaps everywhere - in that fight will be Iran. If the US gets involved, so, perhaps, will Iran’s new ally, Russia. As an intermediate possible step, Qatar could disrupt global supplies of natural gas in the same way OPEC did to oil in the 1970s - that would make last year’s spike in energy prices look like a small-scale rehearsal. The other big foreseeable threat is Taiwan. China has said, explicitly, that it will take back the Island. If it intends to do so over the next decade or so, now would seem to be the most opportune time. ‘Joining the dots’ is the favourite activity of the armchair analyst. The pictures that emerge from these exercises can be truly alarming. They could, of course, be completely wrong. But a lot of people are drawing very similar pictures. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why Ireland lost in a game of the finest of margins - really.On the numbers, Ireland and New Zealand could replay that game, deploy the same players and tactics, and Ireland would win 9 games out of 10. This was the tenth game.What about Ireland going forward - looking good, even in terms of replacing Jonny Sexton. Tight Head Prop, a massively under-rated position, could be more problematic.How is it possible that England are the only undefeated side in the World Cup? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Everything really is connected to everything else Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We really are doing economic policy all wrong Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

They really deserved to win this one Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Professor Charlotte Cavaillé is a global expert on inequality and redistribution. Her extensive research program has reframed the discussion such that our perceptions of fairness are front and centre. With some surprising results.In many countries, particularly the US and UK, inequality has risen. Economists might argue that self-interested electorates, which contain increasing numbers of people suffering form inequality, might start calling for more redistribution. But the evidence says not. Moreover, in France, where inequality has not risen in US-style fashion, people are convinced they live in ever worse economic conditions.The more we think about this, the more complicated things become. Professor Cavaillé urges us, persuasively, to think about the issues in new ways.If we focus on who we are redistributing from, we might get a very different discussion compared to when we focus on who we are redistributing to. Fat cats in the 1% or benefit scrounging freeloaders?The immigration debate is salient everywhere. Breaking down - understanding our societal norms about fairness & proportionality - help to explain why, Danish-style, allowing migrants to work - to earn - has more popular appeal than giving them benefits. It might even make sense - countries that restrict or forbid migrant employment take note.We discuss all this and more with Charlotte as she takes us through her brilliant new book 'Fair Enough" Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Do we have a right brain problem? Author and journalist Matthew Syed said so in a recent fascinating Sunday Times column.Professor of Neuroscience at Trinity College Dublin, Shane O'Mara, says no.So why is our political discourse, pretty much everywhere, so polarised, context & nuance free, and just so nasty?Why, when we know, with as much certainty as we can muster, that the world is a very uncertain place, is everyone so certain?Shane is tempted to say that the world was ever thus and Chris & Jim should stay off Twitter.Point taken, but the authoritarian, conspiracy loving nut jobs do seem to have the upper hand - or at least are making more noise.In this podcast, AI is confused with AIB. That is a step too far. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are equities heading for an October event? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Batten down the hatches? Fat chance Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Time for rocket scientists to stop blowing up the (economic) world Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In an Irish Times Article that has gone globally viral, journalist Nathan Johns, @nathanrjohns, analysed data that suggests S. Africa might have won that match. Perhaps even deserbved to win that match.But they lost.Why?Numbers are not quite everything it seems. Nearly everything, but not everything.Chris looks forward to a Wales victory in the semi final. Maybe even against Ireland. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A big week in financial markets: bond yields are up to multi-year highs. All other asset prices have been affected. Equities are down, exchange rates are all over the place.The new narrative is interest rates 'higher for longer'. Wethink this could be yet another narrative fallacy.Interest rates were left unchanged in the US and UK following the ECB's latest dopey hike.Economies are weakening under the strain of past rate hikes. Particularly the dopey ones.Is Euroscepticism, pre-Brexit style, going to make a comeback?Support for Ukraine - is it fracturing?Saying goodbye to the Welsh economy. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest data and forecasts for the Irish economy suggest 'growing but slowing'Unemployment is forecast to stay very low - essentially an economy at full employmentUnemployment in many countries is forecast to stay low, despite low or no growth. That's because labour markets have been puzzlingly tight for years. Are we just extrapolating the recent past and forgetting that unemployment could rise?Bond markets expect rate cuts next year. They won't get thise without a rise in unemployment, which few, if any, forecasters expect.Somebody is getting this wrong.If I was Finance Minister for a day!Surely realpolitik dictates less prudence now in exchange for more prudence post-election? The Central Bank & IFAC both call for prudence NOW, arguably handing the election to Sinn Fein - who will be anything but prudent with the public finances. A big UK inflation surpriseNot such a big surprise: Sunak reveals himself to be a grubby climate change denier. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lots of great rugby over the last two weekends.Uruguay scare France by playing running rugby. Really entertaining stuff. One poor clearance kick undid the Uruguayans. The kicking game.Tonga show Ireland up at the breakdown. Another problem for Paul O'ConnellEngland, so boring - but so what?A tight point spread for Ireland S. Africa? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US inflation rose again last month: is the good news over? The Saudi-Russian alliance seems determined to get oil prices up to $100. That could mean €2+ for a litre or petrol and/or diesel. Interest rates look to be in 'higher for longer mode'. There is nothing good that flows from $100 oil - other than an economic slowdown/recession that will cut fossil fuel consumption & help, a little, the environment.Putin is building a new friendship circle, including fellow megalomaniacs from N. Korea and mad mullahs from Tehran.The advice to the next government everywhere, including UK, US and Ireland, is the same: build more houses. In the UK and Ireland that's gonna need big reforms of the planning system. Comedians - and serious journalists - are starting to tell jokes about Sunak's chances of winning the next general election. Are Ross O'Carroll-Kelly's D4 brothers-in-arms helping to shutter a 112 year-old cricket club? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Euro area economy is weak Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest Irish government tax and spending figures have prompted lots of questions. Not least: is the corporation tax bonza over?Economists and budgetary watchdogs are only doing their job when they warn about spending one-off, or windfall, tax receipts. But the upcoming budget will be as big a political event as it will be about economics. Arguably the most intensely political budget in a very long time. The politics all point towards giving money away. Maybe there are clever ways of doing that.Jim thinks Chris might have a bit of an agenda when it comes to the UK. Chris claims to just have data. Either way, major bits of the country's infrastructure are at risk of falling down. Quite sad really. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Other Hand's occasional coverage of the Rugby World Cup starts here!An ongoing conversation with Irish Times journalist Nathan Johns. Enjoy some proper rugby analysis, a little rugby banter, free of cliche and jargon, from a journalist who really does know his stuff.In today's episode we set the scene by asking whether the RWC can be as unifying a force for France as was the 1998 soccer world cup.The opening match couldn't have been better scripted: between the first and second favourites. Why are the two sides of the draw so lopsided? Could Ireland fail to get out of 'the group of death'The groups were decided years ago, to ease the travel plans of the world's prawn sandwich brigade rugby officials and their friends and familiesWill France, 'the most Unfrench team' prevail?How will Ireland do? They cant be bullied any more but lack a little depth in the event of key injuriesEngland don't even know what their team is (really)The Welsh had better watch out for FijiNew Zealand really do have weaknesses, particularly up front Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our latest podcast is up, a conversation between Chris and Shane O’Mara, Professor of Brain Science at Trinity.Shane, a prolific best-selling author, has a brilliant new book out -  Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds And a terrific Substack: BrainPizza, well worth a sign-up.In today's pod:Who is coming for Ted Cruz's beer and why is he so angry about it?Why do we get so bent of shape by so little?Why did Jimmy Page & Robert Plant's post Led Zeppelin careers diverge so much?Reaching the top of the mountain and finding nothing there.Hyperbolic discounting: if we don't do some long-term thinking there won't be a long term.Techocrats Vs visionariesWe all want to be heard but why should anyone listenBeing poor really sucks - and is really bad for your brainWind farms are beautiful.A note of optimism Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

You couldn't make it up Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The battle to be Trump's VP. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Brace for another ECB policy mistake Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rental crisis goes global. So does the bond crisis. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Reminder: it's August Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Governments can't solve every problem. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Can we change our minds? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Did WW3 just start? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Slowdown drums beat louder Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will America survive a second Trump Presidency? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Landings soft and hard Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

If bankers want market salaries there needs to be more banks. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Where will Wagner go next? Poland? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Voters don't like paying for climate mitigation. Make the alternatives cheaper! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

IS the UK a developing economy? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why is UK inflation orders of magnitude more than anywhere else? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Confused? You will be. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Make Irish yoghurt great again. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Zero GDP growth and a booming economy? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Does the IMF really think corporate profits are responsible for inflation? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In conversation with top British Brexit expert, Professor Chris Grey Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

'Make Ireland Great Again'. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK interest rate rises risk house price collapse. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Another dot.com bubble? In conversation with Gary McCarthy Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Strange economic data and broken correlations. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lessons from Sydney's suburbs Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Some energy prices now back to historic norms Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Revolutions can be revolting Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Irish labour market still going gangbusters Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Economists are using the wrong model Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With Nathan Johns of The Irish Times Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Brexiteers promised the end of UK manufacturing. They may have been right. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Consensus is often wrong Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are you a banana? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Gas prices are a tenth of their peak last year. Has your gas bill fallen? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In (amazing) conversation with Noah Smith Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The CMA bites! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The astonishing collapse in commodity prices Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

And much more! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

But worries persist about the health of the US. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is Biden too old? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

"Interest rates to fall to pre-pandemic levels" Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Arguing with the Chatbots Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

First sign of job market weakness? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Does this podcast sound human or bot to you? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why we can't build anything. Why we can't get anything done Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

More Interest Rate Hikes. More Mistakes. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With Irish Times journalist Nathan Johns Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

More unexplored banking bombs. Credit Suisse should be merged into UBS. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Farrell's coaching is mental Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is the interest rate outlook now utterly transformed? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Economists have the wrong model. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is there any Brexit difference between Starmer and Sunak? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Waiting for recession Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The current generation have never had it so good. Discuss. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Quality of Life In Ireland Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A defining moment for Sunak is imminent. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Cost of living packages and landings. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

And much more! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

And much more, including property prices and rents. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

And much more! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

And much more Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

And much more! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fighting over a pie that doesn't grow. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

And much more! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Boiled frogs and dots joined. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Chinese demography and the interest rate outlook Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A simple explanation of the Uk's trilemma. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A debate about which health system is in worse shape Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Looking up at the stars Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

And what others are saying about the 2023 outlook Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is Britain broken or just a bit cracked? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hotels start to house their own workers Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's a no-brainer: costs & the environment demand confronting the NIMBYs Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Who is happiest? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim worries about a charisma deficit Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tech woes persist. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Economist opines on sex. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This really is worth a listen. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A United Ireland: when rather than if? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Slowing not crashing Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Investment advice from Nigel Farage Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The perils of public speaking Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It isn't pretty Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

NYC has a rat problem. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will Trumpism survive Trump? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ireland's first economic shock since the last one Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

And the UK political circus continues Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's going to be particularly bad in the UK Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Recession signs are building Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The world is slowing down Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Anton Krasovsky: remember that name. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A dive into the chaos engulfing British politics. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With a rant about the Planning system. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ireland's top-ranked business show Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

London House Prices. Everybody's House Price. Credit Suisse. Larry Summers. Germany's huge fiscal expansion. All this and more! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK has a growth problem. Ireland doesn't. Ireland's Finance Minister has loadsa money. The UK Chancellor is still looking for cash. Watching the Conservative party implode would be funny if it were not so serious. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thank you for reading The Other Hand. This post is public so feel free to share it. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

If you like The Other Hand please leave a review on Apple or Spotify and/or share with your friends. it really helps! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

If you like The Other Hand you can help us by sharing, recommending and/or leaving a review on Apple or Spotify. Many thanks This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Please read our latest two very different blog posts: one on the Irish economy, the other asks the question: why does nothing seem to work any more? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Follow Chris & Jim: @skiduffer & @JimPowerEcon This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Apple or Spotify podcasts - it really helps This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Apple or Spotify - it really helps! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Spotify or Apple This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Apple or Spotify - it really helps us! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Apple or Spotify - it really helps us. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Apple or Spotify - it really helps! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Apple or Spotify - it really helps. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Please ignore last email - it contained the last episode of 2021. Apologies This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Apple or Spotify. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Apple or Spotify. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Apple or Spotify. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review on Spotify or Apple. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Please leave a review, if you can, on Apple or Spotify This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thanks for reading The Other Hand! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. If you can, please leave a review on Apple or Spotify platforms This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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The bank of England all but promised an interest rate rise this week but then failed to deliver. What is going on?US jobs are growing again but US interest rates are not. For how long? Stock markets love the mix of decent growth and a docile central bank.Latest data suggest no let up in surging Irish tax revenues. November will be the big corporation tax month. Ireland and UK covid rates have recently crossed. But there is better news from big pharma: anti-virals are almost as big as the news about vaccines we got last year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Interest rate rises around the world now seem to be just a mater of time. How fixed is your mortgage?When environmental campaigners tell us ‘we are all doomed’ how do we react? Is this kind of messaging the way most likely to get us to make the necessary changes to or behaviour? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For centuries, the ways in which many societies governed themselves were indistinguishable from mafia-type governance structures. Along came democracy, the rule of law and meritocracy. But how much has really changed? Have we just changed one set of feudal barons for another, albeit with a slightly thicker veneer of civilisation? As philosopher Michael Sandel says, meritocracy is a scam.Prominent economist Jeffrey Sachs recently asserted that America is ruled by and for a small elite - and always has been, apart from an aberrant period from the mid 1930s to the mid 1960s. Surely that’s also true of the UK (with only a much shorter ‘golden period’) and many other countries? Is Sachs right? If so, what does that suggest for what happens next?‘Winner takes all’ may be how the world has always been organised. But the sustainability of that model depends critically on the winners leaving enough on the table to keep the masses quiet. Are today’s elites making the classic mistake? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Leading economist Duncan Weldon once again joins The Other Hand to discuss the issues of the day.In his own recent substack post Duncan noted that an ex-Chief Economist of the Bank of England recently stated that ‘economists have no general theory of inflation’. When you think about it, that’s quite a statement.The UK budget revealed another shape-shift for the Tory party. A Chancellor who believes borrowing is ‘immoral’ nevertheless wants to spend a lot of borrowed money. And is raising taxes. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Leading economist Duncan Weldon joins Chris in conversation about how tax revenues are giving finance ministers in Ireland and the UK much more room for manoeuvre - for now at least. Is the the UK government setting itself up for stringency now to be followed by pre-election giveaways? The British have a strange attitude towards financing de-carbonisation.The state of economic journalism. Modern economics: what message does the recent Nobel prize send? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In Jim’s absence (he always needs a couple of weeks off after the budget), Chris speaks to leading hedge fund manager Peter Van Dessel. An Irishman living in the USA, Peter brings a unique and insightful perspective to the current state of Ireland. He shares his thoughts on the ways in which supply shortages and inflation may well last an awful lot longer than many policy makers seem to think. With many a twist and turn along the way. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The budget was the expected smorgasbord of measures. A budget that makes abundant sense to a centrist. But in this age of populism, does it cut the political mustard? Can the centre hold? In the words of Yeats:Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   The ceremony of innocence is drowned;The best lack all conviction, while the worst   Are full of passionate intensity.The test of Ireland’s political stability awaits. If Sinn Fein can buy enough votes with its incoherent high spend, high tax, no property tax policies then the die is cast. Ireland will get what it votes for. The centre is collapsing and societal division awaits. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Budget 2022 arrives with amazing news about Ireland’s fiscal position. For once it is unambiguously good news. Why not spend all those extra tax revenues on much needed infrastructure? Health and housing?If you read much of Irish media and listen to opposition politicians, Ireland resembles a dystopian hell-hole. Others - inevitably outsiders - see the country as one of the most prosperous places on earth. One of the mysteries of the age is why the coalition allows the opposition to control the narrative. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ireland’s tax take is extremely buoyant, at least for the first 9 months of the year. What to spend all the money on? can it last?Boris Johnson has discovered an economic ideology. One that makes no sense whatsoever but is an interesting departure. He is finally accountable for something that can be measured. But Tories don’t like ideologies, least of all one that is a sort of anti-business Neanderthal Thatcherism. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The world economy is slowing down. Asia, including China, is weakening. European indicators are flashing Amber. Britain’s bosses are warning about a collapse in confidence. The energy shock, if it persists, could lead to even more trouble.A small thing perhaps, but a British minister has, finally, admitted that Brexit involves an economic ‘transition’. That’s code for ‘problem’. Maybe even ‘trouble’. Cast in the language of ‘moving from one equilibrium to another’. It’s school-level economics. Remember: there is no plan. Restricting immigration, raising taxes and throwing sand in the wheels of trade are the three things they have done. The idea now is to sit back and observe the ‘transition’ to sunny uplands. It could be a long wait. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rising oil and gas prices join the long list of things joining the inflation party. How are central banks going to react? Is this the end of the long party for stock markets?Is this an energy crisis that could bring the post-pandemic recovery to a juddering halt?‘Conspicuous environmentalism”. Surely it’s time for leadership and honesty? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We ignore history. Policymakers certainly do. But there is very little new under the sun. Duncan Weldon reminds us that we ignore history at our peril. And peril is where we are at. There is so much in this unusually readable book. ‘Levelling up’ is at least a century old, despite Boris Johnson taking credit for its invention. Want to know what some of today’s Trump-Johnson-Orban leaders resemble Mafia Dons? Take a look at history: we are more often ruled by kleptocrats than democrats. Jim and Chris have an enjoyable, longer than usual, but highly entertaining chat with Duncan Weldon about his new book, ‘Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through. The Surprising Story of the British Economy’. You will be surprised! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is China and it’s indebted property companies reliving the West’s Great Financial Crisis?Gas prices and inflation and a cost of living crisis? Empty shelves for Christmas? Regular journey’s by road and sea between Britain and Ireland: a changing perspective. A radically different perspective.The Other Hand is completely free to read & listen. Please spare a few seconds and give us a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Many thanks This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The annual budget circus has started. Love Island is more entertaining and only marginally less significant. Why do we do this to ourselves?Years ago, politicians deemed themselves incapable of managing monetary policy and the all-important setting of interest rates was handed over to technocratic central bankers. Surely the same considerations apply to taxation & spending policies? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Some personal reflections on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11.And some stuff on the budget and interest rates This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Economist has a big piece this week on ‘the rise of the illiberal left’. That newspaper is as worried about the extreme left as it is about the totalitarian right. So are we.One aspect of political extremism is lying. Chris’s written piece on this is questioned by Jim - not uncritically!Economic forecasting is an exercise in futility. Most of the time. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lots of economic data over past few days, all pointing to very robust growth as the economy reopens. Plenty of questions remain over the sustainability of that growth. Almost all countries are in the same post-pandemic (we hope!) boat: a big surge in growth but supply constraints and a changed labour market raise plenty of questions. Another shiny new housing plan but how robust are its foundations? The annual central bank off-site in Jackson Hole is closely watched for clues about US interest rates. But some economists are beginning to think that the era of low interest rates is not really under the control of our monetary masters. It could be that as the rich get richer they save and don’t spend. And those savings drive interest rates down and stock markets and house prices up. If true, this will have ramifications for years to come. Inequality isn’t just bad, it’s really bad. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

So much shallow thinking is applied to so many of our problems. Not least housing. But also low pay and inequality.The Fed gets all this, even if many do notWhy does Dublin stink? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Hong Kong stock market is off 20% from its high earlier this year. That’s the conventional definition of a bear market. Is this the start of something big - the long-awaited global market correction - or is it just down to China’s attempts to cut it giant corporations down to size? What is China actually up to? It’s not easy to question the environmental consensus. Those that do so are vilified. But unquestioning acceptance of conventional wisdom rarely makes for scientific progress. What are the right questions? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Anger is not a strategy. You won’t get lower house prices or lower rents by shouting at the people who bring you the facts. You certainly won’t get more houses if you vote for politicians who magnify and exploit your anger.Following the Great Financial Crisis there was the age of austerity. The Covid crisis is shaping up to be the exact opposite.The tragedy unfolding in Afghanistan was surely avoidable, at least in terms of scale. There will be lots and lots of consequences This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim takes us through the latest economic newsWhy has the environment become so political? Surely it’s just a big problem that needs a solution without left and right taking swings at each other?Ireland is, at last, a big vaccination success. Is this because there are fewer anti-vax nutcases? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What does economic normality look like?We suggest that nothing will be normal until interest rates rise. Zero interest rates are connected to lots of things: income and wealth inequality, ever higher house prices. But have we turned Japanese? And has Australia quietly moved on from zero covid? recognising that it is a ‘forever strategy’? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim has been travelling but thinks he might need to keep it quiet.China has taken a sledge hammer to its education and tech sectors. Why?Latest IMF economic forecasts on a watershed day for the Irish Economy. Some Covid arithmetic explaining why vaccinated people turning up in hospital is not as worrying as first appears. And young people looking for their pitchforks. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest inflation news on both sides of the Atlantic has been grim. The debate goes on: is the surge in prices temporary?Lots of data on the Irish economy and a changed future fiscal stance: more spending for longer. The state of our politics: the usual suspects call this austerity. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Anyone heading off after July 19th should steel themselves for sticker shock, not least for car rental prices. Inflation continues its global creep.Boris Johnson look a worried man - for very good reason. The numbers don’t support what he is doing - or at least reveal a massive gamble. Just as England’s social problems reveal a very troubled country. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Boris Johnson has always been a gambler. His biggest yet is the decision to lift all Covid restrictions on July 19th. Latest eurozone economic data suggest the long awaited lift-off. Are all newspaper articles still written by real people? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK government believes the time has come to live with Covid. NPHET does not.We look at the evidence and what each government believes. In particular, we shine a laser beam on the trade off between health and the economy. Either there is one or there is not. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Surely governments have a wider remit than do medics and scientists? What is the bigger picture?What is the future for the younger generation? Who is looking after their interests? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On the 5th anniversary of the Brexit referendum, Chris Grey publishes Brexit Unfolded, his magisterial account of what has happened since that fateful day. The book explores the debate as it unfolded and the evolution of Brexit’s vague definition into the hardest of outcomes. In conversation with Chris Johns, Professor Grey reveals he almost used ‘lies can never become policy’ as the book’s subtitle. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets decided weeks ago that the inflation scare is temporary. Now they are doubling down with a bet that the ‘relation trade’ is over: that means big reversals in bonds, commodities and much else besides. Signal or noise?There is far too much muddled thinking on antigen testing. It’s a useful addition to the toolkit. Why NPHET is so opposed is a mysteryA UK by election reveals that southerners with degrees, jobs and a garden don’t like being trashed on a daily basis by Johnson’s culture war mercenaries. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Johnson once again fluffed his lines when he had to speak them live. He’s all bluster, zero beliefs and much worse than a mere mini-Trump.90+% of covid in the UK is of the India/Delta variety. Does scientific advice make sense? Do the current lockdown restrictions? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The G7 has a long and mixed history. It used to be about exchange rates. Today it is mostly taxes but there have been important environmental initiatives of late.Staff shortages in surprising places: out and about in London and DublinUK and EU fall out over sausages. Johnson’s next capitulation is in sight, if the past is anything to go by. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A raft of economic data this week suggests economies on both sides of the Atlantic have taken off like a rocket. But, in the US at least, workers are notable by their absence. The UK looks to be trouble with the Delta variant. How bad could it get and does it threaten the recovery?Property taxes are in the frame. Politicians who should (and probably do) know better say they are in favour of wealth taxes and against property taxes. That is nonsense. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Comments from civil servants about Dublin’s Street life raise all sorts of questions. Only some of which are about Covid: the ghosts of authoritarian priests are seen walking the Capital’s streets. We all need to be mindful of our inner traffic warden. There could be an authoritarian also lurking in there somewhere.The OECD is getting a lot more optimistic about post-Covid recovery. Joe Biden is worried about China and Wuhan. If the virus was lab-made there is big trouble ahead. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ireland announces the reopening plan. But the Common Travel Area is still not common: Britain has kept it operating through the pandemic, Ireland has not.US inflation surprises on the upside again; as does the cost of your breakfast. Talks about talks about interest rates going up might be about to begin. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The future of housing and house prices. Can and should the public sector get much more involved? The competition between economic metaphors: the tomato ketchup economy?If you like this podcast please sign up and/or share with your friends. Get involved in the discussion! Many thanks. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Reaction to our last podcast has been massive and it remains the non-covid issue for Irish politics. It will become the biggest issue once the pandemic is over. Why can’t the government see that they are gifting the next election to you-know-who?The near half-century of neo-liberalism looks like it is coming to an end. We discuss Professor Dani Rodrik’s wise words on what has happened and what is coming our way.Brexit: Lord Frost says all is going well in Dover but things are terrible in Larne. Both statements cannot be true.Covid Corner: The Indian variant threatens us all. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A look at what drives house prices. Populists will grab the headlines - and maybe the votes - but they have no solutions, only strategies to make things worse. House prices going up are a global phenomenon, one thats been around for a long time. The role of interest rates is under appreciated.If you like this podcast please join the discussion, tell your friends and/or sign up - we write on this site as well as speak. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

England turns blue. The end of the Union looms into sight? US jobs disappoint and, once again, reveals the pointlessness of economic forecasting. Jim turns the podcast blue with his revelations about sex toys.The US jobs report may have lessons for Ireland, the UK and elsewhere: ending pandemic unemployment assistance will be tricky.Supply shortages get worse and commodity prices boom. If you like any or all of this please share with your friends. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Like this podcast: sign up!And tell your friends!Some economic indicators are approaching all-time highs. Inflation and interest rates set to rise? Janet Yellen and Warren Buffett speak about their inflation concerns. European commentators still haven’t recognised the astonishing socio-economic radicalism going on in the US. It could be the biggest policy experiment of our lifetimes. Some countries achieved zero covid: could their experiences really have been replicated? Not all zero-covid policies were the same: differences speak volumes. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A bit of economic history, name-checking T K Whitaker, the insurance problem, inequitable taxation, the lack of interest in SMEs shown by official Ireland and much else besides This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The chatter around global corporate taxation grows ever louder with the OECD, the EU and now Joe Biden all joining in. If you thought that Ireland and one or two other jurisdictions are unfairly grabbing your taxes and jobs you will be surprised by the facts. Cheap headlines get in the way of the truth: you don’t need to be a finance expert to understand what is going on. Just listen to Seamus Coffey here. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.