More heat across the country and plenty of data to talk about this week too, starting with the latest inflation figures for Q4 2023.The CPI/inflation trend is definitely in the right direction, but with domestic/non-tradable prices such as rents and council rates still a bit problematic, the OCR isn’t likely to be cut in the near term. But cuts are possibly on the cards for the second half of the year, with some falls in shorter term fixed mortgage rates also likely.With the dust settling on the RBNZ’s announcement about LVRs and DTIs, Nick and Kelvin also give a quick update this week, which reiterates that there could be a net boost to property activity around the middle of the year, but also that borrowers who are currently above the DTI limits shouldn’t panic – the rules aren’t retrospective.Plenty of other data to cover too – including last week’s December NZ Activity Index (ok-ish), and then this week’s filled jobs for December (Monday), mortgage lending for December (Monday), foreign buyers for Q4 (Tuesday), ANZ business confidence (Wed.) and consumer confidence (Fri.) for January, and new dwelling consents for December (Friday). All to be covered in detail next week!Also check out our latest Housing Chart Pack, highlighting the strong market share for first home buyers in 2023.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

After a sombre discussion of the weekend’s rugby result, Nick and Kelvin launch into the usual analysis of all the property market data, which has been coming in thick and fast lately. Recent population figures confirm the influence of migration in Auckland, and the effects this is having on rental markets – not just there, but around the country too.Meanwhile, we’ve recently had new mortgage lending (a bit patchy), consumer confidence (good and bad), and foreign buyer data (still low) to digest. Last week’s Pulse article looking at investor activity by size is also covered off. Filled jobs numbers are hot off the press, and are still showing growth – a good sign ahead of this week’s official labour market stats for Q3 on Wednesday. This week there’s a steady stream of other data and releases to look out for too – dwelling consents, the NZAC, and business confidence on Tuesday, as well as the latest Financial Stability Report on Wednesday. Will the FSR finally set out the actual rules and timing for possible DTI restrictions next year?In amongst all of that, the October CoreLogic House Price Index will also be released (media on Tuesday under embargo until Wednesday), and as a teaser, it’s showing a rise in average values ….And of course, as mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally? Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association.Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

This week Nick and Kelvin quickly run through the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which showed a modest fall at the national level, and patchy regional patterns - some areas up in August, some down. This patchiness may remain a feature in the coming months.  We then launch into a detailed discussion of how the housing market might look if National won the upcoming election - from a shorter Brightline period, to a softer foreign buyer ban, to interest deductibility, there's plenty to cover. Ultimately, house prices may receive a boost, but it might not be all that large - with mortgage rates still high.  Meanwhile, recent economic data, including filled jobs, the NZAC, and business/consumer confidence have all been encouraging.  And finally we finish with listener questions about DTIs - could National remove them from the Reserve Bank's toolkit? If imposed, would they actually do much? Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Ever wondered why both employment and unemployment rates can rise at the same time? Or how high wage growth impacts inflation and the Official Cash Rate (OCR)? Join us, along with our guest, Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson, as we decipher the latest labour market data. Prepare for an enlightening discussion on the OCR's future and the pressures that could sway its course.Now, imagine if you could decode the perplexing world of the housing market. On this episode, we navigate through the House Price Index for July, provide insights into the current market situation, and foresee the potential of further market pain. From properties being resold at a loss to the increasing rental prices and lower vacancy rates, we ensure you're up-to-date with the latest trends. Buckle up as we journey through the intricacies of labour and housing market dynamics, equipping you with the knowledge that makes a difference.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson discuss the state of the New Zealand economy, including the NZ Activity Index, inflation, and job statistics. They also discuss recent changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) rules and the upcoming financial stability report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The speakers touch on the possibility of tax reform, including a land value tax, but do not expect any major changes before the upcoming election.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In a special edition podcast Nick and Kelvin are joined by Eliza Owen, Head of Research for CoreLogic Australia. Eliza is the author of the just-released third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property Report.Eliza takes Nick through the report - why does it exist, how is it done, and what does it tell us? Kelvin helps along the way with some NZ specific insight but the findings are relatively consistent across both countries and Eliza delves into some of the details and also some thinking as to why they may occur.Download your free version here from Tuesday 7 March 2023 and keep an eye out for plenty of coverage across all media channels.You can follow Eliza on LinkedIn.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for February out last week, a question came up about why it differs to some other measures out there. This leads to a broader discussion some of the different stats out there and why the interpretation of them is important. This relates to other releases from the last week too, including the filled jobs data, business and consumer confidence results and even the affordability report released the week prior.Even the dwelling consents figures offer up a few words of warning, following some fresh listener insights. This week keep an eye out for the Women & Property report, and associated podcast, out Tuesday. Plus, Kelvin's on the road with Trade Me for their State of the Nation roadshow and be sure to dial into the International Women's Day webinar and the Government Market Update if you're a Government employee.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With Nick away on holiday in and around Queenstown this week, Kelvin takes the reins and is joined by a special guest, Tom Coad, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Platforms for NZ and Australia.We kick off the episode with a brief intro for Tom, and then Kelvin kicks into the data, which is in abundance this week – inflation may have peaked (but is still high), which will trigger another OCR increase on 22nd February. Whether it’s 0.75% or ‘only’ 0.5% will depend a lot on what happens with the official labour market figures this Wednesday.There have been some other concerning indicators lately too – a subdued NZAC for December, weak business confidence, and signs in the latest Centrix data that more households are beginning to struggle with the cost of living and higher mortgage rates.Looking ahead, it’s CoreLogic House Price Index data this week, alongside mortgage lending, foreign buyers, unemployment, dwelling consents, and consumer confidence.After all that, the discussion turns to bigger picture banking themes, where Tom highlights a couple of key issues – digitisation/lending speed and the role of brokers, both in NZ and across the ditch. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

What else could start off this week’s discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it’s ‘business as usual’ for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday’s CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank’s expectation), we could see some reaction in higher mortgage rates. But a sub-7% result could tip the tone of discussion towards an OCR increase on 22nd February of less than 0.75%, taking some heat out of mortgage rates. A big day beckons.Meanwhile, the REINZ data released last week remained very sluggish, with sales low and the house price index falling again. Queenstown’s 5.2% fall in values in December probably isn’t a genuine indication of broader trends in that market, but it also reinforces that nowhere is totally immune to the current housing pressures.Rents held steady in December, confirming that tenants are currently in the ascendency, but the sharp and surprisingly strong turnaround lately in net migration may be starting to give some landlords hope for better property demand and cashflow in 2023.Nick and Kelvin also cover off this week’s NZAC (weak again?), ANZ business confidence (also subdued?), as well as the so-called Healthy Homes alliance, and some recent negative equity stats for Wellington.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Apologies for the short audio cut-out at about 16 minutes. Please plough through it.After a busy start to 2023 last week in terms of writing and media appearances, we’re back for the second podcast of the year, and there’s plenty to cover – most notably the guys cover off Kelvin’s ‘opinion piece’ setting out why the loan to value ratio rules won’t be loosened this year. This wasn’t triggered by any ‘whispers’ that we’ve heard; just a good opportunity to put all our random musings into one place.The latest Cordell Construction Cost Index is also discussed, showing that the costs to build a new house rose at a record pace in 2022, but also that some respite could be on the way this year.Good news for first home buyers too – their % share of property purchases is hovering at record highs, with reduced competition from other buyers, and of course lower house prices, all working in their favour. To be fair, the number of deals has fallen. But a high market share is still a good result.The labour market also remains healthy, with filled jobs rising again in November. And this week we’re watching out for December’s REINZ figures (Wednesday), December’s Stats NZ rent data (Thursday), and November’s migration result (Friday).Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

After a largely successful weekend of sports results, the dominant property issue for today’s episode is the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) – the chat may have a negative tone, but that’s the point. The FSR is all about looking at risk, and ‘plausible but severe’ scenarios which we might need to prepare for. Nick and Kelvin cover off various aspects of the FSR, including the overall conclusion that our financial system is pretty resilient, and that most households should ‘get by’, provided that unemployment stays relatively low. More detailed points include some climate change modelling, negative equity, non-bank lending, and the prospects for LVRs vs DTIs. Other data from last week included the continuation of low unemployment in Q3, and the resilience of new dwelling consents. Coming up, watch out for the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report, Buyer Classification data, and the latest Stats NZ rental figures Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In another special addition podcast, Nick is joined by Mark Harris, Managing Director of Sotheby's International Realty NZ, to discuss all things Queenstown. As can often be the case, the Queenstown property market is currently marching to it's own beat and with the borders now open, optimism for the area is high.Mark started Sotheby's in NZ almost 20 years ago and has extensive experience in the mid-high range property market, both in Queenstown and around the country.Listen in to hear about Mark's take on the current market, thoughts on the foreign buyer ban, connection to international markets and expectations for the future.Catch all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In another special edition guest podcast, Nick and Kelvin welcome their Australian counterparts to have a discussion around some of the similarities and differences between the NZ and AU property markets.Tim Lawless, CoreLogic International Research Director, and Eliza Owen, Head of AU Research are hugely experienced and well respected market commentators on the Australian market and they offer great perspective at a time uncertainty in both countries remains high. Key topics of interest covered are the OCR, include recent history and speed of change/expectations for change, affordability - especially in the main/capital centres and the differing regulatory environment. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzPlus, you can sign up to receive any or all CoreLogic releases here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In this special edition podcast, to recognise and celebrate International Women's Day 2022 (IWD), Nick and Kelvin are joined by Kristen Lunmen, founder of Hatch.The theme of this years IWD is #breakthebias and throughout the podcast Kristen provides great insight into how she's done exactly that, as well as tips for how Women can do the same, in both their career and ambitions for financial freedom.The second annual CoreLogic Women and Property report, written by Head of Research for CoreLogic AU, Eliza Owen also coincides with IWD and Kelvin delves into the relevant insights for women here in NZ. This instigates some great discussions throughout, covering off the different attitudes, biases and inequality which exist between genders, when it comes to all investments, not just property. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In a special guest podcast Nick chats to Rupert Gough, CEO of Mortgage Lab.With so much going on in the lending space Nick and Rupert discuss everything from recent value growth to the trends and impact of the bank of Mum and Dad helping out first home buyers.A review of the latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data leads to what's happening with investors right now, including how the tightened loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions have hindered their activity. Plus some surprise about the reaction to the interest deductibility changes and consideration for the potential impact of debt-to-income limits.To finish off, the guys discuss everything to do with interest rates - including the forecast for the official cash rate (OCR), hot off the heals of the latest RBNZ monetary policy review, and what impact the pending lift in mortgage interest rates could have on the market. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Hosted by Shelley Horton, Head of Valuation Strategy & Solutions, our Women in Business Podcast features lively discussions and tips on leadership and business by some of the top women leaders in the Valuations Industry.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With the latest announcement of a move to alert level 3 in Auckland and 2 elsewhere, Nick and Kelvin cast their minds back to previous times this happened, using the early market indicators to help set expectations for the property market in the coming days.With a bit more time to digest the announcement by RBNZ to reinstate the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions, there's also plenty more data from 2016 to get a feel for what the market will do after 1 May 2021.Kelvin also chats about his latest article, analysing rental returns across the different value bands and Nick gives mention of the upcoming market updated being presented to Government clients at the RBNZ. Get in touch to be added to the invite list.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 31, Nick and Kelvin discuss yet more strong data on the economy and property market. Appraisals generated, new listings to market and valuations ordered are all holding up solidly, especially for this time of the year.And from an economic perspective the NZ Activity Index (early read on GDP) is showing economic activity at similar levels to last year for June.Add to that the latest House Price Index release from REINZ shows strength in property values towards the end of Q2. Of course, as Nick and Kelvin regularly say, the risks still remain so broader market optimism needs to be kept in check.The latest market update video is available https://youtu.be/v6hvTlrrG-o Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 27, Nick catches up with Richard Deakin who is the head of insurance at CoreLogic NZ.Richard has a long history with CoreLogic in many different roles but most recently as the conduit for insurance companies to help them get the best data to help with their decision making in relation to property.Richard provides excellent detail on how the industry has changed in the wake of the Christchurch Earthquakes almost a decade ago as well as how they've responded to COVID-19.He also mentions the recently released Flood Mapping tool, which you can find out more about here. https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/get-most-complete-view-flood-risk-throughout-new-zealand Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz.Richard can be contacted at richard.deakin@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Firstly apologies for the minor technical issue recording this week, which caused some audio to bug out.In Episode 14, Nick and Kelvin discuss the good news for the industry that real estate can be transacted again now that we are in COVID-19 level 3 restrictions, and what the latest real-time activity data is showing.They also consider the latest announcement from the Reserve Bank that the loan-to-value ratio restrictions will be temporarily removed. Why are they doing it and what impact might it have?Nick also plugs the comprehensive Quarterly Property Market & Economic Report which was released last week. Available to download for free here https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/q1-property-market-economic-update-released-todayCheck out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz