Ready to grow your wealth through smarter investing decisions? With The Meb Faber Show, bestselling author, entrepreneur, and investment fund manager, Meb Faber, brings you insights on today’s markets and the art of investing.
Featuring some of the top investment professionals in the world as his guests, Meb will help you interpret global equity, bond, and commodity markets just like the pros. Whether it’s smart beta, trend following, value investing, or any other timely market topic, each week you’ll hear real market wisdom from the smartest minds in investing today. Better investing starts here.
For more information on Meb, please visit MebFaber.com. For more on Cambria Investment Management, visit CambriaInvestments.com.
Ben Mackovak on The Secret Sauce of Investing in Banks | #519
Today’s guest is Ben Mackovak, Co-Founder of Strategic Value Bank Partners, an investment partnership specializing in community banks. Ben also sits on the board for several banks, giving him unique insight into what’s going on in this area.
It's been a wild ride lately for the banks. 2023 was the biggest year ever for bank failures. There are concerns about commercial real estate risk in the banking system, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates at an incredible pace, and valuations for the entire sector are at a steep discount to the market. So, we had Ben join us to talk about all of this and share if these concerns are justified or if there is still opportunity in the space.
(1:22) - Welcome Ben to the show
(2:08) - Overview of Strategic Value Bank Partners back in 2015
(5:40) - Distinguishing between community and regional banks
(7:42) - Discussing bank failures and reforms
(28:49) - The state of banks today
(33:13) - Banks exposure to commercial real estate risk
(35:58) - Engaging with banks
(40:13) - The impact of fintech
(49:35) - Revealing Ben’s most controversial viewpoint
(54:02) - Ben’s most memorable investment
Learn more about Ben: Strategic Value Bank Partners
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Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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2/2/2024 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 47 seconds
Jared Dillian on the Keys to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life | #518
Today’s guest is Jared Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals.
Jared’s back on the podcast to talk about his book, No Worries: How to live a stress-free financial life, which just released yesterday. Jared talks about the 80/20 rule applied to personal finance, his “no worries” approach to investing, which he calls the awesome portfolio, and I bet you’ll be surprised by which asset has performed best since 2000.
We also get Jared’s take on the market today. He touches on inflation, private equity, the bond market and more.
(1:20) - Welcome Jared back to the show; Episode #344: Jared Dillian
(5:02) - Unpacking the concept “we get to choose how much money we have”
(6:56) - Applying the 80/20 rule to personal finance
(10:14) - Clarifying acronyms from 'No Worries: How To Live A Stress Free Financial Life'
(14:57) - Considering the implications of young people accruing debt
(18:11) - Different investment strategies & the Awesome Portfolio
(34:41) - Jared’s take on inflation and higher interest rates
(36:58) - Assessing the current state of the market
(43:26) - Concerns about Tony Robbins book
(45:53) - Integrating AI into the process of writing
Learn more about Jared: The Daily Dirtnap, Jared Dillian Money
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only). Register for their webinar on January 25th with Charlie Bilello.
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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1/24/2024 • 54 minutes, 6 seconds
Bruno Caratori - The Bitcoin ETF is FINALLY Approved. Now What? | #517
Today’s guest is Bruno Caratori, co-founder & COO of Hashdex, a global crypto asset manager that launched the first crypto index ETF in the world.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all about the SEC’s recent spot Bitcoin ETF approval with someone from one of the 11 companies in the Bitcoin ETF race. And in crypto fashion, the approval actually happened halfway through our episode! Bruno talks about what a wild week it was with the fake announcement by someone who hacked the SEC’s Twitter account. Then he shares the unique structure he created for their ETF (ticker DEFI) and what his prediction is for total assets in Bitcoin ETFs by the end of the year.
(1:32) - Welcome Bruno to the show
(3:06) – The Bitcoin ETF approval
(7:22) - The enthusiasm surrounding a Bitcoin ETF
(9:02) - Introducing Hashdex & DEFI
(19:22) - The significance of crypto-native companies running the Bitcoin ETF
(30:26) - Forecasting the crypto market in 2024
(37:19) - Delving into Bruno's most controversial viewpoint
(39:57) - Reflecting on Bruno’s most notable investment
Learn more about Bruno: Hashdex; Twitter; LinkedIn; Instagram
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Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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1/13/2024 • 42 minutes, 43 seconds
BlackRock's Rick Rieder on The State of Markets & The US Debt Problem | #516
Today’s returning guest is Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and the Head of the BlackRock’s Global Allocation team. Rick recently won the Morningstar 2023 Outstanding Portfolio Manager award.
In today’s episode, Rick shares his take on the macroeconomic landscape as we kick off a new year. He touches on the set up for both stocks and bonds and why he’s focused on finding companies that have “rivers of fast cash flow.” We talk about several other topics including crypto, AI, Japan, the recent shift by the Fed, US debt levels, and much more.
As we wind down, Rick touches on his entrance into the ETF space this year with two fund launches.
Listen to Rick’s first appearance on the podcast.
• 1:30 - Welcome Rick back to the show
• 2:36 - Reflecting on current market dynamics
• 5:14 - The state of the bond market
• 9:00 - Rick’s take on inflation dynamics
• 10:55 - Areas of the market that Rick likes today
• 15:58 - Opportunities in fixed-income
• 22:01 - Rick touches on several asset classes, including crypto, Japan & India
• 32:38 - Rick’s new ETFs
• 36:01 - Reviewing unexpected outcomes from the last year
• 42:06 - Rick's most controversial viewpoints
• 46:33 - Thoughts on AI
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only)
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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1/10/2024 • 57 minutes, 39 seconds
Felix Zulauf – 2024 Macro Outlook Not Rosy | #515
Today’s guest is well-known macro-expert Felix Zulauf, founder of Zulauf Consulting. He was previously the global strategist for UBS and later ran his own asset management firm.
In today’s episode, Felix shares his view of the global investment landscape from Asia to Europe to the US. He shares why the tailwinds of lower inflation may reverse and lead inflation to rise above 10%. He also touches on the state of gold, the US dollar and other currencies, and why he’s focused on the upcoming election in Taiwan.
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Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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1/3/2024 • 45 minutes, 7 seconds
Liz Simmie, Honeytree – A Quantamental Approach to ESG | #514
Today’s guest is Liz Simmie, co-founder Honeytree Investment Management, which recently launched an actively managed, ESG-focused ETF, BEEZ.
In today’s episode, Liz dives into the strategy of BEEZ, which focuses on responsibly growing companies that are stakeholder governed, purpose driven, and make a net positive impact on the world. Then she shares some hot takes on the state of both ESG and active management.
As we wind down, Liz talks about the process of launching an ETF with our friends at Alpha Architect and shares advice for anyone thinking about launching one themselves.
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Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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12/27/2023 • 56 minutes, 11 seconds
J.P. Morgan's Gabriela Santos Likes International Stocks for 2024 | #513
Today’s guest is Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
In today’s episode, Gabi shares her view of the world after a year where the Magnificent 7 has dominated the headlines. She hammers home her excited about the opportunity set outside of the U.S. She explains why she likes the set up for Japan and India, why nearshoring is just one of the reasons why she’s bullish on Mexico, and why she thinks China has become more of a tactical trading market.
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Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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12/20/2023 • 51 minutes, 10 seconds
Alfonso "Alf" Peccatiello on Dr. Yield Curve, Neighbor Tracking Error & The Emerging Markets Decade | #512
Today’s guest today is Alfonso Peccatiello but you may know him as Alf! He’s the Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, which provides financial education, macro insights and actionable investment ideas.
In today’s episode, Alf gives a masterclass on the bond market. He talks about Dr. Yield Curve and how yield curve inversions are related to recessions. He also talks about where he sees opportunity in the global equity markets, specifically emerging markets.
As we wind down, Alf shares some hot takes that most of his peers would disagree with, and you don’t want to miss what he says.
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Sponsor: AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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12/13/2023 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 51 seconds
Mebisode: Combining the Best Characteristics of the Tortoise and the Hare
In today’s episode, Meb reads a recent email sent to Cambria subscribers comparing the risk and returns of the Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (SYLD) since inception through the lens of the famous fairy tale, “The Tortoise and the Hare.”
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12/9/2023 • 7 minutes, 38 seconds
Louis-Vincent Gave & Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman: De-Dollarization, De-Sinafication & The Commodity Bull Market | #511
Today’s returning guests are Gavekal co-founder Louis-Vincent Gave and Praetorian Capital Management founder, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman.
In today’s episode, we start by covering the macro landscape and then dive in on some key themes Louis and Kuppy are focused on. We talk about emerging markets, the energy transition’s impact on commodities like oil and uranium, and stealth bull markets in places like Japan and India. We also touch on the Mag7, Argentina, Turkey, and even aviation sub-assembly – a first for the podcast.
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only)
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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12/6/2023 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 6 seconds
Radio Show: Jonathan Treussard & Nic Johnson on Carbon Credits, Pre-Worrying & Disrupting Residential Real Estate | #510
Today’s returning guest is Jonathan Treussard, who recently left Research Affiliates to launch his own RIA. This time Jonathan brought along Nic Johnson, who ran the commodity desk at PIMCO until early last year, overseeing over $20 billion.
In today’s episode, the three of us kick around a bunch of topics. We talk about asset allocation, investor interest in commodities & TIPS, why Nic hates when people say gold is an inflation hedge, how financial incentives drive behavior, and why that’s an issue in areas like finance and residential real estate.
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Sponsor: AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
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11/29/2023 • 59 minutes, 47 seconds
Austin Root, Stansberry Asset Management - The Case For Productive Assets | #509
Today’s guest today is Austin Root, Chief Investment Officer of Stansberry Asset Management. Previously, he co-founded and ran North Oak Capital, a New York-based hedge fund that received a strategic investment from Julian Robertson and Tiger Management.
In today’s episode, Austin starts off by discussing the combination of financial planning & investment management. After giving a masterclass on private credit, he shares why he describes himself as a tweener when it comes to investing, the role of gold in portfolios, and much more.
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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11/22/2023 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 19 seconds
Jim Bianco on "The Biggest Economic Event of Our Lifetime" & The End of the 40-Year Bond Bull Market | #508
Today’s guest today is Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research and one of my favorite macro minds around.
In today’s episode, Jim holds absolutely nothing back. He shares why 2020 was the biggest economic event of our lifetime, why the 40-year bond bull market is dead, and why energy is going to be weaponized going forward. We also touch on the recent labor strikes, the impact of remote work, and why it may be time for active management in both stocks and bonds going forward.
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only). Register for YCharts’ webinar and kick off 2024 with a successful path to smarter investment decisions and more effective client communications.
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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11/15/2023 • 1 hour, 25 minutes, 4 seconds
Whatcha Waiting For?
In today’s episode, Meb reads a recent email sent to Cambria subscribers about using a shareholder yield approach to express the opportunity in global value stocks today.
Resources:
Performance after Peak Valuation: Navigating the Tech Sector’s High Multiples
Think Income and Growth Don’t Exist In This Market? Think Again
Think Income and Growth Don’t Exist Around the Globe? Think Again
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11/11/2023 • 15 minutes, 54 seconds
Thomas George, Grizzle - Disruption at a Reasonable Price | #507
Today’s guest is Thomas George, President of Grizzle and Portfolio Manager of the DARP ETF.
In today’s episode, Thomas talks about investing in disruption at a reasonable price. Key word: reasonable. He talks about the sector and thematic focus of the ETF and takeaways from the 2022 sell-off in the growthier parts of the market. As we wind down, he walks through the performance of Amazon since its IPO and why it makes for a perfect case study for disruption at a reasonable price.
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Sponsor: This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
11/8/2023 • 54 minutes, 8 seconds
Radio Show with Corey Hoffstein: Roaring Kitty, Bitcoin ETF & T-Bill and Chill | #506
Today’s Radio Show is with guest co-host Corey Hoffstein.
In today’s episode, Corey and Meb talk about whether topics are overhyped or underhyped:
Bitcoin ETF recent news
BlackRock launching Target-Date ETFs
The death of the 60/40
T-Bill & Chill
The Magnificent 7
Dividends
They also talk about Roaring Kitty pitching us to come on the podcast in summer 2020 to discuss GameStop, my never ending job application to CalPERS, and more.
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-----
Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only)
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
11/1/2023 • 1 hour, 32 minutes, 47 seconds
Que Nguyen, Research Affiliates – Walking the Tightrope: High Valuations in an Inflationary Landscape | #505
Today’s guest today is Que Nguyen, the CIO of Equity Strategies at Research Affiliates.
In today’s episode, she shares why stretched valuations along with a rise in interest rates and inflation may create a tinderbox for investors. But not everything is gloomy – she’s sure to share some areas she sees opportunity in the U.S. market today. We also discuss the ‘Magnificent Seven,’ fundamental indexing, and where she sees the dollar going from here.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Sponsor: Vinovest is a wine and whiskey investing platform democratizing access to these 'liquid' assets. With more than 150,000 registered users, Vinovest has made it easier than ever to buy, sell, and store high-performing wine and whiskey.
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
10/25/2023 • 45 minutes, 20 seconds
Mebisode – What If You Owned No US Stocks? | #504
In this Mebisode, Meb reads his post titled, What If You Owned No US Stocks?
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only)
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
Today’s guest today is Jon Hirtle is the founder and Executive Chairman of Hirtle, Callaghan & Co., a 20 billion dollar Outsourced CIO business he founded over 35 years ago. Jon is well known for creating the OCIO model that is commonplace today.
In today’s episode, Jon shares what led him to start his firm and the OCIO model itself over three decades ago. He walks us through the evolution of asset allocation over that time, lessons from working with countless investment teams during his career, and his broad thoughts on the current investment landscape.
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Sponsor: Vinovest is a wine and whiskey investing platform democratizing access to these 'liquid' assets. With more than 150,000 registered users, Vinovest has made it easier than ever to buy, sell, and store high-performing wine and whiskey.
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
10/11/2023 • 49 minutes, 10 seconds
Mikhail Samonov – Lessons from Two Centuries of Financial History | #502
Today’s guest is Mikhail Samonov, CEO of Two Centuries Investments, which was established to create long term wealth for investors through its blend of innovative and behaviorally focused investment strategies.
In today’s episode, Mikhail walks through what led him to focus so much on ‘long history’ in his research. He shares lessons learned from studying two centuries of financial returns, including momentum and asset allocation. He also spends time explaining how he’s using AI to study intangible value and company cultures.
(1:29) - Welcome Mikhail to the show
(2:30) - Why such a focus on long-history?
(3:04) - Two Centuries of Price-Return Momentum; Two Centuries of Multi-Asset Momentum
(12:41) - Investors often underestimate risks, ignore history
(18:11) - Investment comfort zones vary by generation
(25:15) - Innovation and creativity are crucial for quantitative investors
(34:26) - Applying research on intangibles using NLP
(41:00) - CultureLine uses AI to analyze workplace culture, aiding investors and enhancing ESG models
(45:46) - Story about Steve Jobs adding "creative" to Apple's 10K
(49:46) - Deep dive into asset allocation strategies and their long-term resilience; A Century of Asset Allocation Crash Risk
(59:42) - Why investors underestimate drawdowns
(1:03:54) - What investment belief Mikhail holds that most of his professional peers do not
(1:07:09) - Mikhail’s most memorable investment
Learn more about Mikhail: Two Centuries; CultureLine; LinkedIn; Twitter
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only)
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
10/4/2023 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 39 seconds
John Davi, Astoria Advisors - Macro+Quant, Inflation & Global Diversification | #501
Today’s guest is John Davi, CEO and CIO of Astoria Portfolio Advisors, which provides ETF managed portfolios and sub-advisory services.
In today’s episode, John walks through his macro plus quant approach to the markets. We touch on his entrance into the ETF space with two tickers I love: PPI & ROE. We also talk about global diversification, opportunities in Europe and Japan, and why he focuses on after-tax after-inflation returns.
-----
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-----
Sponsor: Vinovest is a wine and whiskey investing platform democratizing access to these 'liquid' assets. With more than 150,000 registered users, Vinovest has made it easier than ever to buy, sell, and store high-performing wine and whiskey.
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/27/2023 • 57 minutes, 45 seconds
Soo Chuen Tan, Discerene - Contrarian, Long-Term Value Investing | #500
Today’s guest is Soo Chuen Tan, Founder & President of Discerene Group, which has a fundamental, contrarian, long-term value investing philosophy.
Today’s episode starts off with lessons from working under the great Seth Klarman at Baupost. Then we spend a lot of time around what the ideal structure is for an investment firm and how to build a true partnership with LP’s - and that even includes giving money back when there aren’t opportunities in the market.
Then we get into his investing philosophy. He answers broad questions like: what businesses actually have network effects? Does it matter if a certain business goes away tomorrow?
-----
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only). Mark your calendars for September 22nd because YCharts will be hosting a webinar to unveil Proposals and show off its full potential.
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/20/2023 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 21 seconds
Kevin Carter, EMQQ Global - India is Happening NOW | #499
Today’s returning guest is Kevin Carter, Founder and CIO of EMQQ Global.
In today’s episode, Kevin pounds the table for India’s tech sector. He covers the demographic trends, The India Stack, the difference from China 15 years ago and the current valuations. He also explains why environmental risks are something to keep an eye on in India.
Listen to Kevin’s Kevin’s first appearance on the podcast.
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only)
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/13/2023 • 57 minutes, 46 seconds
Liz Ann Sonders on The State of the Markets | #498
Today’s guest is Liz Ann Sonders, the Chief Investment Strategist of Charles Schwab.
In today’s episode, Liz Ann starts off by sharing some timeless lessons from her mentor, the great Marty Zweig! Then she shares her view of the economy and markets. She touches on earnings estimates, expectations for the Fed, market breadth, and where she sees opportunity going forward.
(1:08) - Welcome Liz Ann to the show
(1:28) - How Marty Zweig's sentiment indicators had a lasting impact on Liz Ann Sonders' approach
(5:26) - Marty Zweig’s Investing Rules
(5:42) - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
(7:30) - Rukeyser's advice to Liz Ann: Explain finance so non-finance parents understand
(10:01) - Understanding rolling recessions: A pandemic-era phenomenon
(12:54) - Unprecedented weakness in leading indicators (LEI) hints at potential recession
(15:49) - Housing market varies between existing/new and single/multifamily homes
(19:27) - Fed's future path unclear
(24:39) - Market's unpredictability and rich multiples require earnings growth for justification
(39:30) - Emphasizing international diversification, especially in Japan
(42:30) - Investors are turning to treasuries for yield
(47:11) - Why this year feels like a "wall of worry" market
(48:11) - Why the "get in, get out" approach to investing is gambling, not disciplined strategy
(51:03) - What investment belief Liz Ann holds that most of her professional peers do not
Learn more about Liz Ann: Charles Schwab; Twitter;
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Sponsor: Future Proof, The World’s Largest Wealth Festival, is coming back to Huntington Beach on September 10-13th! Over 3,000 finance professionals and every relevant company in fintech, asset management and wealth management will be there. It’s the one event that every wealth management professional must attend!
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
Today’s guest is Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corporation where she oversees a global equity portfolio inside Tudor’s flagship fund. Her area of focus is around digital, data & disruptive innovation. Barron’s named her as one of the 100 most influential women in finance this year.
In today’s episode, she starts by lessons learned over the past 25 years working at a famed shop like Tudor. Then we dive into topics everyone is talking about today: data, AI, large language models. She shares how she sees investment teams incorporating AI and LLMs into their investing process in the future, her view of the macro landscape, and finally what areas of the market she likes today.
With all the AI hype going on, there couldn’t have been a better time to have her on the show. And we even had an AI program record the intro with my voice!
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Sponsor: Future Proof, The World’s Largest Wealth Festival, is coming back to Huntington Beach on September 10-13th! Over 3,000 finance professionals and every relevant company in fintech, asset management and wealth management will be there. It’s the one event that every wealth management professional must attend!
Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/30/2023 • 45 minutes, 35 seconds
Phil Bak, Armada ETFs - Masterclass in (Liquid) Real Estate Investing | #496
Today’s guest is Phil Bak, CEO of Armada ETFs, which provides investors broad access to the real estate asset class.
In today’s episode, Phil gives a masterclass on real estate investing. He covers the residential real estate space, the problem investors have come across this year with private REIT strategies, and why he has a solution to their problem. Then he shares how he’s using AI and machine learning to the REIT space through his long-only hedge fund.
(0:39) - Sponsor: Future Proof
(1:14) - Intro
(2:00) - Welcome Phil to the show
(2:25) - Navigating the realms of entrepreneurship and investing
(5:39) - REIT overview
(13:30) - Narratives drive flows, flows drive performance
(15:47) - Challenges for Private REITs
(30:57) - Creating PRVT ETF to replicate private REIT strategies with lower fees and liquidity
(34:18) - Exploring the HAUS ETF
(36:12) - Applying AI & machine learning to REITs
(43:08) - Phil’s most memorable investment
(48:11) - Changing market dynamics due to shifting Fed actions and evolving REIT landscape
(51:37) - Lessons from investing in baseball cards
(54:37) - What investment belief Phil holds that most of his professional peers do not
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Sponsor: Future Proof, The World’s Largest Wealth Festival, is coming back to Huntington Beach on September 10-13th! Over 3,000 finance professionals and every relevant company in fintech, asset management and wealth management will be there. It’s the one event that every wealth management professional must attend!
Sponsor: The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/23/2023 • 1 hour, 9 seconds
Mohnish Pabrai on Cloning & Compounding |#495
Today’s guest is Mohnish Pabrai, founder and Managing Partner of the Pabrai Investments Funds, which he started in 1999 and has since built an incredible track record.
In today’s episode, Mohnish talks about his love for bridge, what his friend Warren Buffett’s online bridge name is, his philanthropic endeavors, opportunities he sees in Turkey and India, and what he would do with the Apple position today if he was running Berkshire Hathaway.
(0:39) - Sponsor: YCharts
(1:26) - Intro
(2:00) - Episode begins
(5:57) - Mohnish’s educational background
(11:37) - Revived love for Bridge
(18:00) - The magic of compounding
(24:57) - Dakshana provides intense prep for competitive exams to underprivileged kids
(38:54) - Investing long-term in high-conviction bets regardless of error rates
(42:51) - Think like a founder, hold onto investments long-term despite drawdowns
(46:32) - If he worked at Berkshire, would he sell or hold Apple today?
(48:53) - What interested Mohnish in Turkey & India?
(1:02:45) - Which tech stocks would Bill Gates buy?
(1:06:51) - Mohnish’s most memorable investment
(1:11:57) - Narrow expertise depth, no need to know everything about everything
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only).
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/16/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 46 seconds
Stephanie Pomboy on the Corporate Credit Crunch | #494
Today’s guest is Stephanie Pomboy, founder of MacroMavens and one of the top macro minds around.
In today’s episode, Stephanie shares her take on the investment landscape and why she’s very concerned about the corporate credit market. Then she shares her take on the dollar, gold, and where she sees opportunity given her bearish views. In reading some of Stephanie’s recent research to prepare for the episode, I came across some data points that I haven’t seen anyone else talking about, so I promise you’ll love this episode.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today's episode is sponsored by Future Proof. Future Proof, The World’s Largest Wealth Festival, is coming back to Huntington Beach on September 10-13th! New in 2023 is Breakthru Meetings Program – which will be facilitating more than 10,000 1-on-1 meetings. Financial Advisors and LPs, get your ticket FREE plus a $750 reimbursement by applying for the hosted meetings program by the August 15th deadline.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/9/2023 • 54 minutes, 44 seconds
Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson – What’s Your Favorite Diversifier? PLUS: Future Proof! | #493
Today’s returning guests are Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and hosts of the awesome Animal Spirits podcast.
In today’s episode, Michael & Ben give us a preview of Future Proof in September, which I attended last year and will be going once again. Then we talk about a bunch of topics, including asset allocation given the world today, the behavioral aspect of investing, the best diversifier to the average portfolio, and more.
Register with our special link by August 15th to get your ticket for free, plus $750!
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/5/2023 • 49 minutes, 29 seconds
Anthony Zhang, Vinovest - From Barrel to Bank: How to Invest in Whiskey | #492
Today’s returning guest is Anthony Zhang, founder and CEO of Vinovest, which gives investors the ability to invest in wine and now whiskey.
In today’s episode, Anthony updates on the business since his first appearance two years ago. He shares Vinovest now has over 100 million dollars invested and 150,000 registered users. Then we dive into their entrance into the whiskey market and talk about the investment profile of whiskey, how it compares to wine, and what else is in store for this rocket ship startup.
For listeners of the show, Anthony shared a special deal for listeners of the show, so click here and the first 50 people that fund their accounts will receive a $50 bonus.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/2/2023 • 53 minutes, 33 seconds
JD Gardner - Bridging the Behavior Gap | #491
Today’s guest is JD Gardner, CIO & Founder of Aptus Capital Advisors, which provides risk-managed strategies designed to help clients stay invested through market cycles.
Today’s episode has an overarching theme that can be summarized by a quote from JD himself: "A strategy's return is much less important than an investor's return while exposed to the strategy." JD explains how they provide solutions to help bridge the behavioral gap and use options provide investors with income and downside protection so investors don’t capitulate at the exact wrong time. JD also spends some time discussing the OCIO part of the business and lessons working with advisors in that capacity.
-----
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today's episode is sponsored by Future Proof. Future Proof, The World’s Largest Wealth Festival, is coming back to Huntington Beach on September 10-13th! New in 2023 is Breakthru Meetings Program – which will be facilitating more than 10,000 1-on-1 meetings. Financial Advisors and LPs, get your ticket FREE plus a $750 reimbursement by applying for the hosted meetings program by the August 15th deadline.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/26/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 53 seconds
Bill Bernstein on Financial History, Star Managers & The 4 Pillars of Investing | #490
Today’s returning guest is Dr. William Bernstein, a neurologist turned investment advisor. Bill’s an author of several books and just released an updated edition of The Four Pillars of Investing, which came out over 20 years ago.
In today’s episode, Dr. Bernstein shares two key updates since the first edition. Then we walk through some his best quotes and tie them to both timeless topics and current events like the AI craze and the media’s love for star managers.
Click here to listen to Dr. Bernstein’s last appearance on the podcast.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/19/2023 • 50 minutes, 59 seconds
Steve Klinsky, New Mountain Capital – Private Equity Titan | #489
Today’s guest is Steve Klinsky, founder and CEO of New Mountain Capital, a private equity firm with over $37 billion in assets under management. Steve began his time in private equity when he co-founded Goldman Sachs’ Leverage Buyout Group back in 1981 when there were very few private equity firms around.
In today’s episode, Steve shares how the private equity industry has evolved over his career to go from a focus on financial engineering to a focus on building businesses. Then he talks about the opportunity today in private credit and what the key drivers are to helping businesses grow and generate returns for both the employees and his firm. He even walks us through some real deals, including his sale of Signify Health to CVS earlier this year for a $8 billion.
Enjoy learning about private equity? Check out episode 482 here.
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Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only).
Download a copy of YCharts’ latest white paper taking a deeper look into the performance of various portfolio allocation strategies and asset classes during the four most recent rate hike cycles.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/12/2023 • 53 minutes, 43 seconds
Blake Street – Financial Advisor to New Media: From Tik Tok to E-Sports & OnlyFans | #488
Today’s guest is Blake Street, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Warren Street Wealth Advisors, an RIA located in California.
In today’s episode, Blake shares how he wound up building a firm focused on content creators, which includes people who make a living from Tik Tok, e-sports, pickleball, and even OnlyFans! He explains the uniqueness of working within this niche, how he finds creators to work with, and his advice for other advisors who are looking to find their own niche. He also shares his firms’ tech stack, best practices for building out the infrastructure for an RIA, and his take on the future of financial advice.
Did you enjoy this episode? Leave us a review, and then listen to Meb’s episode with tax expert Duncan Kelm.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/5/2023 • 51 minutes, 22 seconds
Dr. Gio Valiante on Peak Performance: From Tiger Woods to Steve Cohen | #487
Today’s guest is Dr. Gio Valiante, who is regarded as one of the most successful performance coaches in the world. He’s currently the Head Performance Coach for the Buffalo Bills and works with some of the top golfers and top investors. He was previously the Head Performance Coach for Point72 and Steve Cohen.
In today’s episode, Dr. Gio starts by sharing the five ways to win on the field or in the market. Then he shares the parallels of top performers in both athletics and investing. He walks through ways to help handle failure, navigate fear, and detach yourself from your results.
This is truly a masterclass on what peak performance looks like, so be sure to share this episode with a friend. And if you enjoy this episode, click this link for Dr. Gio’s first appearance on the podcast.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Farmland LP. Farmland LP is one of the largest investment funds in the US focused on converting chemical-based conventional farmland to organic, sustainably-managed farmland using a value-add commercial real estate strategy in the agriculture sector. Since 2009, they have built a 15,000-acre portfolio representing over $200M in AUM. To learn more about their latest offering, visit farmlandlp.com or email them at ir@farmlandlp.com.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/28/2023 • 58 minutes, 49 seconds
Ben Inker & Tom Hancock, GMO – The Value and Quality Opportunity | #486
Today’s guests are GMO’s Ben Inker and Tom Hancock. Ben is the co-head of GMO’s Asset Allocation Team and Tom is the head of Focused Equity team and a portfolio manager for GMO’s Quality Strategies.
In today’s episode, Ben and Tom give their take on the markets so far in 2023. They both share why they think quality and value stocks are attractive today. We dig into both factors and get specifics on their set up looking forward. We also touch on growth traps, Japan stocks, the opportunity set in emerging markets, and what companies are at risk to be disrupted by AI.
Did you enjoy this episode? Leave us a review, and then listen to Meb’s episode last year with GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham.
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Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only).
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/21/2023 • 59 minutes, 44 seconds
Dan Niles on Big Tech Stocks and the AI Revolution | #485
Today’s guest is Dan Niles, Portfolio Manager of the Satori Fund, a US focused, technology biased, large capitalization, long-short equity fund.
In today’s episode, Dan shares how his macro outlook is impacting his valuation of the big tech names. And of course, he gives his thoughts about how AI will either help or hurt some those same companies. He also spends time discussing timeless topics like the art of shorting, the importance of cutting your losses, and why he believes the most important trait for an investor is having emotional control.
As we wind down, Dan shares some risks he thinks the market may be overlooking as we head into the second half of the year.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
Today’s returning guests are Rodrigo Gordillo, President and Portfolio Manager at ReSolve Asset Management, and Corey Hoffstein, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research, and with this episode, ties for the most appearances ever on the show!
In today’s episode, we start off by discussing some takeaways from prior periods of inflation volatility and lessons on managed futures from the Tech Crisis.
Then we dive into return stacking. We first spoke to them about this back in 2021, but we get an update on the topic, lessons learned over the past few years, and the launch of their first return stacking ETF!
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Farmland LP. Farmland LP is one of the largest investment funds in the US focused on converting chemical-based conventional farmland to organic, sustainably-managed farmland using a value-add commercial real estate strategy in the agriculture sector. Since 2009, they have built a 15,000-acre portfolio representing over $200M in AUM. To learn more about their latest offering, visit farmlandlp.com or email them at ir@farmlandlp.com.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/7/2023 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 7 seconds
Burton Malkiel - Applying 'A Random Walk' to the World Today | #483
Today’s guest is Dr. Burton Malkiel, a legendary economist, Chief Investment Officer of Wealthfront, and author of one of the most widely read investment books ever, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, which recently came out in the 50th edition.
In today’s episode, Dr. Malkiel shares what’s changed in the latest update of his book, touching on the role of bonds given higher yields today, the impact of inflation, and why it may be time to consider adding I Bonds to your portfolio.
Then we talk about some current investment trends. He pushes back on the ESG-craze, discusses the recent underperformance of risk parity, and suggests you look at your portfolio to be sure you aren’t overallocated to US stocks today.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only).
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
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Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
5/31/2023 • 50 minutes, 26 seconds
Meketa's Steve McCourt & Primark's Michael Bell - Democratizing Private Equity | #482
Today’s guests are Steve McCourt, co-CEO of Meketa Investment Group, an investment consulting and advisory firm serving institutional investors, and Michael Bell, founder of Primark Capital, an investment management firm providing retail investors with access to private equity investment opportunities.
In today’s episode, Steve and Michael discuss their new partnership aimed at expanding access to private equity investments. They walk through the nuts and bolts of the interval fund structure, touching on fees, sourcing institutional quality deals, diversification through vintage and industry, and the benefits of doing this through co-investments. Then we spend some time talking about the current state of private equity and what they’re seeing with both existing investments and new opportunities.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
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DISCLOSURE:
Investors should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. This and other information is included in the Fund Prospectus and is available through the Prospectus link on the Primark website: https://primarkcapital.com – Primark Prospectus. Please read the Prospectus carefully. An investment in the Fund is subject to, among others, the following risks:
The Fund is not intended as a complete investment program but rather the Fund is designed to help investors diversify into private equity investments.
The Fund is a “non‑diversified” management investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940.
An investment in the Fund involves risk. The Fund is new with no significant operating history by which to evaluate its potential performance. There can be no assurance that the Fund’s strategy will be successful. Shares of the Fund are not listed on any securities exchange, and it is not anticipated that a secondary market for shares will develop.
Shares are appropriate only for those investors who can tolerate a high degree of risk, and do not require a liquid investment.
There is no assurance that you will be able to tender your shares when or in the amount that you desire. Although the Fund will offer quarterly liquidity through a quarterly repurchase process, an investor may not be able to sell or otherwise liquidate all their shares tendered during a quarterly repurchase offer. The Fund’s investment in private equity companies is speculative and involve a high degree of risk, including the risk associated with leverage.
Distributor: Foreside Financial Services LLC
5/24/2023 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 16 seconds
Sarah Stanley Fallaw - The Psychology of the Millionaire Next Door | #481
Today’s guest is Dr. Sarah Stanley Fallaw, the author of The Next Millionaire Next Door and the founder of DataPoints, which provides technology-enabled financial psychology tools to enhance wealth-building.
In today’s episode, we look back at some of the key takeaways from her Dad’s book, The Millionaire Next Door, one of the most important personal finance books ever written. Sarah shares what’s changed and what’s stayed the same since the book was published in 1996, and how you can try to instill these traits in your kids.
Then we talk about her company, DataPoints. Sarah explains how she’s able to help advisors learn their clients’ individual personality towards financial decisions and coach them to make better financial decisions. She shares some best practices from working with advisors, how much of this is nature versus nurture, and some of the main differences between genders.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Farmland LP. Farmland LP is one of the largest investment funds in the US focused on converting chemical-based conventional farmland to organic, sustainably-managed farmland using a value-add commercial real estate strategy in the agriculture sector. Since 2009, they have built a 15,000-acre portfolio representing over $200M in AUM. To learn more about their latest offering, visit farmlandlp.com or email them at ir@farmlandlp.com.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
Today’s returning guest is Craig Wichner, Founder and Managing Partner of Farmland LP, the largest farmland manager focused on organic farmland, now managing over $250 million in assets and 15,000 acres of farmland.
In today’s episode, Craig starts with an update on his company and then shares how higher inflation and the shifting macro environment has affected farmland as an asset class, especially after 2022 when real assets were one of the few assets that didn’t have negative returns.
Then we dive into the financials of an acquisition they made of a 4,000 acre, 150 year old farm in Northern California back in 2013 for just under $30 million. Craig walks through the investment and timeline to convert the farm to organic, the benefit of the conversion, and how it helped the farm be re-appraised for just over $75 million last year.
Craig shares some great slides during the episode, so if you want to watch on YouTube, click here
Listen to Craig’s first appearance in December 2020 here.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only).
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
5/10/2023 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 23 seconds
Jim Chanos & Bethany McLean on Lessons from Enron, Financial Fraud Throughout History, and the Fall of FTX, SVB & Wirecard | #479
Today’s guests are Jim Chanos, famed short-seller and founder of Kynikos Associates, and Bethany McLean, contributing editor at Vanity Fair and the author of multiple books, including The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron.
In today’s episode, Jim & Bethany cover all aspects of fraud. They share where we are in both the financial cycle and the fraud cycle, why we continue to see frauds since they first connected about Enron over 20 years ago, and the thin line between a visionary and a fraudster. We discuss the anti-short seller rhetoric that pops up every few months, the impact of social media on the rise and fall of companies, and the impact of stock-based compensation and adjusted earnings.
As we wind down, Jim shares his concerns about the commercial real estate sector, and Bethany gives a preview of her book releasing this October.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Farmland LP. Farmland LP is one of the largest investment funds in the US focused on converting chemical-based conventional farmland to organic, sustainably-managed farmland using a value-add commercial real estate strategy in the agriculture sector. Since 2009, they have built a 15,000-acre portfolio representing over $200M in AUM.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
5/6/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 58 seconds
Sam Zell - The Grave Dancer on Private REITs, the Macro Landscape, & Timeless Investing Wisdom | #478
Today’s guest is the Grave Dancer himself, Sam Zell, founder and chairman of Equity Group Investments, a private investment firm he founded more than 50 years ago. Sam’s thought to be the most successful real estate investor of all time and the man who known for his enormous success in real estate and “made REITs dance,” popularizing the REIT structure that’s commonplace today. He’s also been a successful investor in areas like energy, logistics, and health care.
Today’s episode starts off with Sam’s take on the withdrawal limits for private REITs over the past few months from the lens of his quote, “liquidity equals value.” He shares his view on different areas of the real estate market, why he’s been a net seller for 7+ years, and some lessons from being a constant deal maker during his career.
As we wind down, Sam shares some advice for President Biden on how to help the economy and how to encourage more entrepreneurship in the US, and I promise you won’t want to miss his most memorable investment.
*To listen to more on Sam’s fascinating background, we suggest listening to his episode on The Tim Ferriss Show podcast here
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Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Farmland LP. Farmland LP is one of the largest investment funds in the US focused on converting chemical-based conventional farmland to organic, sustainably-managed farmland using a value-add commercial real estate strategy in the agriculture sector. Since 2009, they have built a 15,000-acre portfolio representing over $200M in AUM.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
4/26/2023 • 57 minutes, 2 seconds
Richard Thaler & Cade Massey on the NFL Draft, Misbehaving GM's, & Exploiting Inefficiencies | #477
Today’s special episode is to prepare you for the NFL draft next week. Nobel laureate Richard Thaler is back with Wharton’s Cade Massey to talk about their famous paper on the NFL draft that even the GOAT Bill Belichick read.
The guys share what they learned years ago – NFL teams overvalue the top picks, shouldn’t trade up, and even after all the scouting teams do, their ability to pick the best player at any pick is about the same as flipping a coin. We talk about why the Bears won the trade against the Panthers this year, what they think about Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy’s success last year, and the future of data analytics in sports.
As we wind down, we dive into why this inefficiency still exists after they published a paper almost 20 years ago and how teams battle some of the same issues asset managers face – career risk, impatient stakeholders, and model aversion.
*Click here to listen to Richard Thaler’s first appearance on the podcast
**If you enjoyed this episode, listen to poker champion & decision-making expert Annie Duke on the show last year
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only).
And be sure to check out their latest Resource Deck, "Supercharged YCharts Visuals."
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
4/19/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 31 seconds
Ramit Sethi on his Netflix Series 'How to Get Rich' | #476
Today’s guest today is Ramit Sethi, entrepreneur, author of I Will Teach You to Be Rich, and star of the Netflix show releasing April 18th called How to Get Rich.
In today’s episode, Ramit gives us a preview of what to expect from his new Netflix show, which he describes as a mix of Queer Eye & Marie Kondo, but for money. He spends time explaining what he means by helping people live their rich life. Then we walk through some of his rules and thoughts around money – whether that’s flying business class for any trip under four hours or not buying into the American idea that everyone should buy a home.
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
4/17/2023 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 36 seconds
Short Seller Bill Martin Bet Against Silicon Valley Bank in January. Here's Why | #475
Today’s returning guest is Raging Capital Ventures’ Bill Martin.
Today’s episode starts off with a Twitter thread from Bill on January 18th which said there were bigger problems at Silicon Valley Bank than just their large exposure to the stressed venture world. Bill gives his view on how the situation has unfolded and the implications for both the banking and venture capital ecosystem.
Then we spend some time on the convergence of public and private markets, something Bill has been at the forefront of. He also shares some high level thoughts on the markets, including some areas he sees opportunities on both the long and short side.
To listen to Bill's first appearance on the podcast, click here
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Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Farmland LP. Farmland LP is one of the largest investment funds in the US focused on converting chemical-based conventional farmland to organic, sustainably-managed farmland using a value-add commercial real estate strategy in the agriculture sector. Since 2009, they have built a 15,000-acre portfolio representing over $200M in AUM.
To learn more about their latest offering, visit farmlandlp.com or email them at ir@farmlandlp.com
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
4/12/2023 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 11 seconds
Wes Gray & Jack Vogel, Alpha Architect - BOXX, HIDE, & Why Trend Following is Timeless. PLUS: Embarrassing Career Moments | #474
Today’s returning guests are Alpha Architect’s Wes Gray & Jack Vogel.
In today’s episode, we kick it off with an update on the ETF white-label business and some of their new funds, BOXX and HIDE. Then we talk about why you need to think more about taxes when investing, the state of value, why trend-following is timeless, and what the most embarrassing moment in each of our careers. I-was-speechless.
Before we get to the episode, Wes’ brother was recently on Joe Rogan’s podcast and helped Joe get a bunch of reviews, so help Wes compete with his brother and go leave us a review on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to the show!
To learn more about their latest offering, visit farmlandlp.com or email them at ir@farmland.com.
Resources:
Long-Only Value Investing: Does Size Matter?
Published articles
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Farmland LP. Farmland LP is one of the largest investment funds in the US focused on converting chemical-based conventional farmland to organic, sustainably-managed farmland using a value-add commercial real estate strategy in the agriculture sector. Since 2009, they have built a 15,000-acre portfolio representing over $200M in AUM.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
4/5/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 33 seconds
Jeroen Blokland, True Insights - Multi Asset Masterclass | #473
Today’s guest is Jeroen Blokland, founder of True Insights, an independent research provider, and previously spent over a decade at Robeco.
Today’s episode kicks off with an overview of the recent stress we’ve seen in financial markets and the implications for your portfolio. He shares why he’s cautious but not bearish, and why he agrees with recent guest Mike Wilson that the earnings recession isn’t priced in yet. We also touch on the role of gold in portfolios, the set up for high yield bonds, and why he thinks the housing market may see a steep decline in the next year.
Earlier this year we sent out a preview of his work at True Insights on The Idea Farm, which you can review here.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Farmland LP. Farmland LP is one of the largest investment funds in the US focused on converting chemical-based conventional farmland to organic, sustainably-managed farmland using a value-add commercial real estate strategy in the agriculture sector. Since 2009, they have built a 15,000-acre portfolio representing over $200M in AUM. Learn more today by visiting FarmlandLP.com or email IR@farmlandlp.com.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
3/29/2023 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 43 seconds
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Says the Earnings Recession is Worse Than You Think | #472
Today’s guest is Mike Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley, and one of the biggest bears on the Street today.
In today’s episode, Mike starts by touching on the price action we’ve seen so far in 2023, which he says is driven by global liquidity instead of fundamental factors. Then he gets into his outlook for 2023. He has a non-consensus view that we’re in the early days of an earnings recession and expects earnings for the S&P 500 this year to come in around $195 compared to the Street average of $210 - $215.
Before we let Mike go, we have him share what he is positive on in the US. He explains why operational efficiency is the factor he likes the most right now, and why areas like industrials, financials, commodities, and even some technology names fit that criteria.
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Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only).
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
3/22/2023 • 47 minutes, 24 seconds
Gary Zimmerman, MaxMyInterest - SVB, FDIC, & Improving ROI on Cash | #471
In this special episode, our returning guest is Gary Zimmerman, founder of MaxMyInterest, a cash management platform that helps you maximize the return on your cash. Given the recent events with Silicon Valley Bank, we had to have Gary back on the show.
In today’s episode, Gary shares what exactly has happened with the Silicon Valley Bank situation. Then he shares the risks people are exposed to with cash balances, why MaxMyInterest helps investors earn alpha and avoid what happened with SVB, and how his clients are earning over 5% on their cash balances today.
Click here to register today with a special deal for listeners of The Meb Faber Show.
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only).
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
3/16/2023 • 58 minutes, 42 seconds
How To Invest in Timberland with AcreTrader’s Carter Malloy & Mark Foley | #470
Today we’re joined AcreTrader’s Carter Malloy, who’s back for his third appearance on the show, and Mark Foley, who joined AcreTrader a little over a year ago as their Director of Timberland Investments.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all about timberland. Carter starts the show updating us on the huge success they’ve had with over 128 properties and three hundred million dollars on their platform. They we dive into their expansion to offer timberland to investors. Mark covers the uniqueness of the asset class, what the opportunity set is like both in the US and around the globe, and where it fits in portfolios.
As we wind down, Carter shares what else the company is working on, including their new geospatial tool called Acres.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
Follow The Idea Farm on social media: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
3/15/2023 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 12 seconds
Jason Calacanis on Democratizing Venture Capital, How to Handle Large Winners, & Why The Price You Pay Matters...Even in Venture Capital | #469
Today’s returning guest is Jason Calacanis, famed Angel investor and podcast host of the All-In Podcast and This Week in Startups.
In today’s episode, Jason shares why he’s more excited about the startup landscape than he’s been in the past 10 years. He touches on his approach to handling his large winners like Uber, Robinhood & Calm, lessons learned from surviving multiple cycles as a venture capitalist, and why he’s now focusing on democratizing access to venture capital.
***To listen to Jason's first appearance on The Meb Faber show, click here
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-----
Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only).
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
3/8/2023 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 26 seconds
Cambria Fund Profile Series – Cambria Shareholder Yield ETFs (SYLD) (FYLD) (EYLD)
In today’s episode, Meb Faber, Cambria Chief Investment Officer, reads a profile of Cambria's shareholder yield ETFs:
US focused Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (SYLD)
International developed market focused Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF (FYLD)
International emerging market focused Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield ETF (EYLD)
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list
For detailed show notes, click here
Links
Think Income and Growth Don’t Exist In This Market? Think Again
Think Income and Growth Don’t Exist Around the Globe? Think Again
3/4/2023 • 16 minutes, 50 seconds
Kate Moore, BlackRock - How to Invest in Consumer Disruption, Natural Resources, & Automation | #468
Today’s guest is Kate Moore, BlackRock’s Head of Thematic Strategy and a member of BlackRock’s Global Allocation investment team.
In today’s episode, Kate shares her framework for looking at markets from the perspective of a “macro equity investor.” Then she shares her view of global markets today and what key investible themes she’s focused on today. We touch on changing consumer habits, natural resources, and automation.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
2/25/2023 • 56 minutes, 22 seconds
Starkiller Capital’s Leigh Drogen & Corey Hoffstein on Crypto Momentum, Conspiracies, GBTC, FTX, & More | #467
Today’s guests are Leigh Drogen, CIO of Starkiller Capital, which applies quantitative strategies to the blockchain based digital asset space, and Corey Hoffstein, co-founder of and CIO at Newfound Research, and a research partner and advisor to Starkiller.
In today’s episode, the guys update us on a wild year in crypto. We talk about the GBTC trade, the value of FTX bankruptcy claims, and even some conspiracy theories around Binance. Then we get into their recent paper, which looks at the momentum factor in crypto markets, and the benefit of using trend-following strategies within crypto to avoid drawdowns like the one we’ve seen in the last year.
As we wind down, the guys say if they think crypto is starting a new bull market.
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Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only).
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
2/15/2023 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 35 seconds
Sean Goldsmith, The Zero Proof – The Golden Age for Non-Alcoholic Beverages | #466
Today’s guest is Sean Goldsmith, founder of The Zero Proof, a leading curator, wholesaler, and online retailer of premium non-alcoholic wine and spirits.
Sean kicks off today’s episode with an overview of the non-alcoholic beverage industry, which has seen a recent boon with more and more people choosing not to drink for health reasons, just like Louisa Nicola explained on the show back in December. He explains the business model, the process of making the beverages, and then I share what some of my favorites were from doing some taste testing before the episode.
Sean was kind enough to make a special code for our listeners, so go to www.thezeroproof.com and use the code MEB15 for a discount.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
2/8/2023 • 47 minutes, 48 seconds
Cambria Fund Profile Series: Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) – Totally (Not) Crushing It!!!
In today’s episode Cambria Chief Investment Officer Meb Faber reads a note he recently sent to Cambria subscribers about the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL).
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list
For detailed show notes, click here
2/4/2023 • 13 minutes, 24 seconds
Jim O'Shaughnessy, OSV - Unleashing The World's Infinite Potential | #465
Today’s guest is Jim O’Shaughnessy, founder and CEO of O’Shaughnessy Ventures. You may know Jim from his prior time at O’Shaughnessy Asset Management or from hosting the Infinite Loops podcast.
In today’s episode, Jim talks with us about the third stage of his career with the launch of OSV. Jim walks us through the different verticals, from making documentaries, hosting podcasts, making venture investments, and funding a fellowship program. He walks us through why each vertical is important to him, what he expects in the next year, and why he’s doing this both for profit and for fun.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
2/1/2023 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 39 seconds
Radio Show: The Gates Are Going Up! PLUS: The Set Up For Value & Trend-Following in 2023 | #464
Today's radio show is with Meb Faber & Colby Donovan. We cover:
Global valuations update: where does the US rank?
Is it too late to jump on the value and trend-following train?
Private funds are gating their money
Q&A: listening to experts and VC fees
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-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
1/28/2023 • 43 minutes, 57 seconds
J.P. Morgan's Dr. David Kelly on Why He Believes Foreign Stocks Are Attractive, Inflation Will Subside, & The Debt Ceiling is a "Doomsday Machine" | #463
Today’s guest is Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
In today’s episode, Dr. Kelly shares his view of the investment world today. He shares why he expects inflation to subside this year, why he loves the set up for international stocks, and why he doesn’t expect much fiscal help in the next 2 years. He also shares some changes he’d like to see to improve the US, like immigration and education reform, and why he thinks the debt bubble is a doomsday machine.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
1/25/2023 • 50 minutes, 17 seconds
Porter Stansberry on a Potential Recession, Opportunities in Distressed Debt, & The Bull Case for Energy Stocks | #462
Today’s returning guest is Porter Stansberry, a leading financial writer and the founder of MarketWise. His newest venture, Porter & Company, was launched last year.
In today’s episode, Porter shares his frustrating ending with Stansberry Research and then why he chose to launch a new research firm last year. He walks us through the major themes he’s focused on over the next cycle: capital efficient, cash-flowing companies, a big upcoming distressed debt cycle, and the energy transition. Plus – he shares some names and ideas for each.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
1/18/2023 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 46 seconds
Top Podcasts of 2022: Rob Arnott & Campbell Harvey, Whitney Baker, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, Marc Cohodes, & Peter Zeihan | #461
Today we’re sharing our 5 most popular episodes from 2022! We know it’s hard to listen to every episode, so we have the most downloaded episodes for you right here! If you click the link in the description below, you can jump to the episode you want to listen to. Here are the top 5 in no specific order:
1. In August, we were joined by both Rob Arnott & Professor Cam Harvey to hear why they didn’t expect to go down as fast as the market was pricing at the time
2. Only one person made it on the show twice this year, and that’s none other than Whitney Baker! After she nailed the macro landscape back in January, we had to have Whitney back on the show to give us an update of how she sees the world today.
3. Energy prices soared in the first half of 2022, and have since cooled off. But I spoke with my man Harris Kupperman, who you may know as Kuppy, in October on why he is as bullish as he could possibly be.
4. Soon after FTX filed for bankruptcy, I spoke with famed short-seller Marc Cohodes, who talked about the red flags he saw on Sam Bankman-Fried & FTX earlier this year.
5. Back in June, I spoke with geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan on the implications of deglobalization, depopulation, and the Russia/Ukraine war
Thanks to everyone for a great 2022 and we wish you and your family a healthy and happy 2023.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
12/28/2022 • 6 minutes, 18 seconds
Louisa Nicola – How To Perform At Your Best Physically & Mentally | #460
Today’s guest is Louisa Nicola, a neurophysiologist and human performance coach, and the founder of Neuro Athletics, which provides scientific strategies to help athletes and investors achieve peak performance.
In today’s episode, Louisa is helping all of us become better investors by giving a masterclass on peak performance. She walks through the three pillars she focuses on: sleep, exercise and nutrition. She gives some tips and tricks to improve in each category and how all three improve cognitive performance.
Louisa also touches on some of her favorite supplements, common tests she recommends to her clients, and why alcohol is probably hurting you more than you realize.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
12/21/2022 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 22 seconds
Louis-Vincent Gave, Gavekal - Investment Themes for 2023 | #459
Today’s guest is Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner and CEO of GaveKal, a leading independent provider of macro research, and GaveKal Capital, a global asset manager.
In today’s episode, Louis kicks it off with the biggest topic in global markets today – the Xi Pivot & reopening of China. He shares his outlook for how it may affect global supply chains, commodity markets, and financial markets. He covers the case for the emerging markets, why he isn’t bullish on the US, and why it may be time to rethink your portfolio construction as we head into a new year.
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
12/16/2022 • 55 minutes, 58 seconds
Bob Elliott, Unlimited Funds – A Macro Masterclass | #458
Today’s guest is Bob Elliott, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds, which using machine learning to create products that replicate the index returns of alternative investments. Previously, Bob was the Head of Ray Dalio’s Research Team and served on the Investment Committee at Bridgewater Associates. Given the volatile macro environment today, we figured there’s no one better to have on to share his view than Bob.
In today’s episode, we touch on rates, the inflationary cycle, the strong US dollar, and how all of these shape his view of the markets and economy as we head into 2023. Then we discuss what strategies are worth looking for alpha in a world where beta is almost free, how he thinks about managers’ performance coming from luck vs. skill, and the benefit of low cost, systematic strategies.
As we wind down, we touch on Bob’s entrance into the ETF space with a great ticker, HFND.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
12/7/2022 • 1 hour, 46 minutes, 57 seconds
Cambria Fund Profile Series – Cambria Asset Allocation ETFs (GAA) (GMOM) (TRTY)
In today’s episode of the Cambria Fund Profile Series, Meb discusses Cambria’s Asset Allocation ETFs, the Cambria Global Asset Allocation ETF (GAA), the Cambria Global Momentum ETF (GMOM), and the Cambria Trinity ETF (TRTY).
Meb kicks off the episode with the advantages of holistic-all-in-one asset allocation portfolios. He talks about the classic 60/40 portfolio balanced between stocks and bonds, and some of the potential drawbacks to that approach, something investors have witnessed firsthand in 2022. He discusses how investors can break out of the 60/40 model, and offers what he feels is a proper approach to building a globally diversified portfolio of assets.
He walks through each of Cambria’s asset allocation funds, the thinking behind each, what each fund brings to the table, and the challenges each fund sets out to tackle for investors.
All this and more in this Cambria Fund Profile Series episode, featuring Cambria’s asset allocation ETFs, (GAA), (GMOM), and (TRTY).
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
12/5/2022 • 21 minutes, 21 seconds
Damien Bisserier and Alex Shahidi on Risk Parity & Investing for All Market Environments | #457
Today’s guests are Damien Bisserier and Alex Shahidi, Co-CIOs of Evoke Wealth, a $20b+ billion RIA. They also entered the ETF game in 2019 when they launched the RPAR Risk Parity ETF.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things risk parity. The guys share their approach to portfolio construction, which focuses on risk management and while still seeking an attractive expected return. We also talk about what true diversification looks like, something many investors are learning in a year with both stocks and bonds down. As we wind down, we discuss the benefits of utilizing the ETF structure compared to mutual funds or SMAs.
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
12/3/2022 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 30 seconds
Marc Cohodes on SBF, Fraud, & The FTX Death Spiral | #456
Today's guest is famed short-seller Marc Cohodes. Marc has investigated and brought down some major frauds in the past, and earlier this year he set his eyes on crypto darling Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you must be aware of the bankruptcy of FTX and other related crypto entities, but the bigger story may be the alleged fraud, which includes accusations of stealing billions of dollars of customer deposits, providing executives with loans up to $1 billion, and much more.
This is a story that almost seems too insane to be true. Hindsight bias comes for us all, and while many people now say the red flags were clear as day, there were very few people criticizing or Sam & FTX before the recent couple of weeks. But on August 1 this year, Marc tweeted, “The Best Short on The Board is this fella…SBF.”
John Ray is the new CEO & Chief Restructuring Officer for FTX and famously oversaw the liquidation of Enron. Given his decades of experience in this role, the statement he made in the recent bankruptcy filing is eye-opening and summarizes the depth of the situation: "never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here [at FTX].”
Since this is a story that seems to change by the day, note that we are recording this on Monday, November 21st.
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
11/25/2022 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 8 seconds
Robeco – The Cross-Section of Stock Returns before 1926 (and beyond) (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Guido Baltussen, Bart Van Vliet and Pim Van Vliet reading their piece, The Cross-Section of Stock Returns before 1926 (and beyond)
Guido Baltussen is Head of Robeco’s Factor Investing strategies and Co-head of the Quant Fixed Income team.
Bart P. Van Vliet is a Client Portfolio Manager at Robeco.
Pim Van Vliet is Head of Conservative Equities and Head of Robeco’s Quantitative Equities department.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to GiveDirectly on behalf of the authors.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
11/21/2022 • 34 minutes, 33 seconds
Eugene Fama – A Life in Finance | #455
Today’s guest is the legendary Professor Eugene Fama, a 2013 Nobel laureate and widely recognized as the “father of modern finance.”
In today’s episode, we talk to Professor Fama about whether he thinks the Fed can control inflation, where the phrase efficient markets came from, and his take on the global market portfolio. As we wind down, we hear the last time he bought an individual stock.
-----
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.com/meb to skip their wait list.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
-----
Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. This document does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations. To the extent that the reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to their specific portfolio or situation, prospective investors are encouraged to contact Cambria or consult with the professional advisor of their choosing. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and such information has not been independently verified by Cambria. No representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by Cambria or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, Cambria does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Cambria does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. All investments involve risk, including the risk of the loss of all of your invested capital. Please consider carefully the investment objectives, risks, transaction costs, and other expenses related to an investment prior to deciding to invest. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure profit or guarantee against loss. Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Masterworks is not registered, licensed, or supervised as a broker dealer or investment adviser by the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), or any other financial regulatory authority or licensed to provide any financial advice or services. Source: (2022, September 13). Wall St suffers worst sell-off since June 2020 after inflation data. Financial Times Source: (2022, September 19). Fund managers pitch ‘alts’ to retail investors as institutions max out. Financial Times Source: (2022, September 30). Inflation punches Wall Street again, ending knock-down quarter. Reuters Source: (2022, June 24). State of the Art Market: An Analysis of Global Auction Sales in the First Five Months of 2022. Artnet News.
11/19/2022 • 38 minutes, 28 seconds
Rex Salisury, Cambrian - a16z Partner Turned Solo GP on Why He Believes Now is the Time for Fintech | #454
Today’s guest is Rex Salisbury, a founding partner of the a16z fintech team and is now a solo GP with Cambrian Ventures.
In today’s episode, Rex shares an overview of Cambrian and the benefit of the fintech community he’s built over time. We touch on the three-body problem and how it relates to venture capital, the competitive advantages of different VC’s, and why he believes you can be consensus and win in venture capital.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
11/11/2022 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 3 seconds
Whitney Baker on Why "Immaculate Disinflation" is an Illusion | #453
Today’s returning guest is Whitney Baker, founder of Totem Macro and previously worked at shops like Bridgewater and Soros.
If you missed her first episode back in January 2022, feel free to pause this & listen to that first – it was one of our most talked about episodes of the year.
In today’s episode, Whitney shares where she sees opportunity in at a time when, as she says, “we’re going from “risk-on cubed” to “risk-off cubed”, starting from some of the highest valuations in history.”
She touches on why she believes inflation is here to stay, the opportunity she sees today in emerging markets, and the dangers of using heuristics learned since 2008 to analyze the current market environment.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
11/7/2022 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 31 seconds
Jerry Parker & Salem Abraham - Lessons From A Lifetime of Trading | #452
Today’s returning guests are Jerry Parker and Salem Abraham. Jerry is the CEO of Chesapeake and a long-time trend follower since he was in the Turtle training program. Salem is the President of Abraham Trading Company and the Fortress Fund, which seeks to protect capital and achieve long-term capital appreciation.
In today’s episode, Jerry and Salem share some of the lessons they’ve learned from trading over the years. We spend some time talking about trend-following and the huge year most CTA’s are having. Plus, Salem even shares an area of the market he’s bullish on today.
To listen to Jerry’s first appearance on The Meb Faber Show, click here
To listen to Salem’s first appearance on The Meb Faber Show, click here
-----
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Composer. Composer is the premier platform for investing in and building quantitative investment strategies. What used to take Python,Excel and expensive trading software is available for free in an easy to use no-code solution. Learn more at www.cmpsr.co/meb.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
10/29/2022 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 16 seconds
Hugh Hendry - The Acid Capitalist Unfiltered | #451
Today’s guest is Hugh Hendry, formerly the CIO of Eclectica Asset Management and now a luxury hotelier and host of The Acid Capitalist podcast.
In today’s episode, Hugh shares his thoughts on all the macro factors in the world today. He touches on inflation, energy markets, the dollar, the situation in China, and more. Be sure you stick around to hear why a dream about the Wizard of Oz led him to buy gold from the Bank of England.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
10/24/2022 • 50 minutes
Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman - Oil is the World’s Central Banker Now | #450
Today’s guest is Harris Kupperman, but you may know him as Kuppy! He’s the founder and CIO of Praetorian Capital, a global micro hedge fund. In today’s episode, Kuppy shares why the macro set up today leads him go be as bullish on oil as it gets. He touches on the Fed, OPEC, ESG, and how he’s implementing this trade.
To preview KEDM, click here
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.com/meb to skip their wait list.
-----
The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
-----
Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. This document does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations. To the extent that the reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to their specific portfolio or situation, prospective investors are encouraged to contact Cambria or consult with the professional advisor of their choosing. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and such information has not been independently verified by Cambria. No representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by Cambria or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, Cambria does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Cambria does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. All investments involve risk, including the risk of the loss of all of your invested capital. Please consider carefully the investment objectives, risks, transaction costs, and other expenses related to an investment prior to deciding to invest. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure profit or guarantee against loss. Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Masterworks is not registered, licensed, or supervised as a broker dealer or investment adviser by the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), or any other financial regulatory authority or licensed to provide any financial advice or services.
Source: (2022, September 13). Wall St suffers worst sell-off since June 2020 after inflation data. Financial Times
Source: (2022, September 19). Fund managers pitch ‘alts’ to retail investors as institutions max out. Financial Times
Source: (2022, September 30). Inflation punches Wall Street again, ending knock-down quarter. Reuters
Source: (2022, June 24). State of the Art Market: An Analysis of Global Auction Sales in the First Five Months of 2022. Artnet News.
10/22/2022 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 42 seconds
Christine Wang, Bridgeway – “Room To Run” with US Small-Cap Value Stocks? (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Christine Wang reading her piece, “Room To Run” with US Small-Cap Value Stocks? Christine is a Portfolio Manager for Bridgeway Capital Management.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to Compudopt on behalf of Christine Wang.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
10/17/2022 • 14 minutes, 11 seconds
Rodrigo Gordillo and Corey Hoffstein – Return Stacking: Strategies for Overcoming a Low Return Environment (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Corey Hoffstein and Rodrigo Gordillo reading their piece, Return Stacking: Strategies for Overcoming a Low Return Environment.
Corey is a co-founder of and Chief Investment Officer at Newfound Research. Rodrigo President of and a Portfolio Manager at ReSolve Asset Management Global and has over 15 years of experience in investment management.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to the Malala Fund on behalf of Corey & Rodrigo.
10/10/2022 • 27 minutes, 51 seconds
Annie Duke – Why Great Investors Are Great Quitters | #448
Today’s guest is Annie Duke, a consultant in the decision-making space and previously was a professional poker player who won over 4 million dollars. She’s also a best-selling author and just released her newest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.
In today’s episode, Annie shares why quitting isn’t always as bad as advertised. She shares what behavioral biases lead us to want to either quit a trade too early or avoid quitting a bad trade, and shares actionable advice you can take to counteract this problem.
As we wind down, we touch on The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit Annie founded to empower students with essential skills to make better decisions. Click this link to learn more about the organization’s virtual poker tournament on October 27th at 6:30p ET.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
10/8/2022 • 1 hour, 22 minutes, 2 seconds
Dave Thornton, Vested – Could Index Investing Come to Venture Capital? | #447
Today’s guest is Dave Thornton, co-founder & Chief Customer Officer of Vested, which helps startup employees unlock the value in their equity.
In today’s episode, Dave shares how Vested is providing liquidity for startup employees, along with a way for investors to access the beta of venture capital unlike it’s ever been done before. He shares the ins and outs of their business, the value-add they provide to startup employees about how to handle their stock options, and how they’re able to give people like yourself broad exposure to venture capital as an asset class.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
10/3/2022 • 1 hour, 34 seconds
BlackRock's Rick Rieder on the State of the Markets | #446
Today’s guest is Rick Rieder, the CIO of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock & the Head of the BlackRock Global Allocation team. Rick is responsible for roughly $2.4T in assets.
In today’s episode, Rick shares his view of the world today, touching on inflation, the Fed, and why now is the most interesting time he’s ever been in the markets. He shares where he sees opportunity given all the risks in the markets and even shares his “secret to trading.”
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
10/1/2022 • 41 minutes, 52 seconds
Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs - Why ESG May Make This Commodity Supercycle Different From Past Cycles | #445
Today’s guest is Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs’ global head of Commodities Research.
In today’s episode, Jeff shares why he called for a commodity supercycle almost two years ago and where we are within that cycle today. He touches on the underinvestment in supply, why ESG makes this cycle different from past cycles, and why the risk of a policy error could exacerbate the problems we have in the commodity markets today.
Be sure to stick around to hear Jeff’s price target for oil and a surprising call on the European energy markets.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/27/2022 • 47 minutes, 54 seconds
Steve Romick, FPA Funds – Live at Future Proof! | #444
Today we have a special episode for you today from last weeks’ Future Proof Festival. I recorded live with Steve Romick, portfolio manager for the FPA Crescent Fund and one of my favorite portfolio managers to talk to.
In today’s episode, Steve shares his view of the world and where he sees value today. He explains why he owns Google, Comcast, CarMax, and even some SPACs and convertible bonds. Then he updates us on investments we discussed on his first appearance on the podcast in 2019, including farmland and container ships.
To listen to Steve's first appearance on The Meb Faber Show back in 2019, click here
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Composer. Composer is the premier platform for investing in and building quantitative investment strategies. What used to take Python,Excel and expensive trading software is available for free in an easy to use no-code solution. Learn more at www.cmpsr.co/meb.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/24/2022 • 48 minutes, 47 seconds
Ben Inker, GMO – Dispelling Myths in The Value vs. Growth Debate (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Ben Inker reading his piece, Dispelling Myths in The Value vs. Growth Debate. Ben is co-head of GMO’s Asset Allocation team and a member of the GMO Board of Directors.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
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Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to the Massachusetts Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence on behalf of Ben Inker.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/19/2022 • 31 minutes, 4 seconds
Kyle Bass on The Market, Energy Crisis & His New Big Bet For The Next Decade | #443
Today’s guest is Kyle Bass, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Hayman Capital Management, an investment manager of private funds focused on global event-driven opportunities.
In today’s episode, Kyle touches on his famous nickel collection, the current macro environment, and why he thinks people need to stop fat shaming oil companies. The second half of the episode touches on Kyle’s newest venture, Conservation Equity Management, an environmental sustainability private equity firm. He walks us through his thesis and explains why he’s buying real assets during a time when people are thinking about the metaverse.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/17/2022 • 49 minutes, 3 seconds
David Rubenstein on Private Equity, Politics, Parenting, & The Art of Investing | #442
Today’s guest is David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-Chairman of The Carlyle Group, one of the largest private equity firms in the world, now managing $325 billion.
In today’s episode, David walks through the evolution of the private equity industry during his career. Then we spend some time on his new book, How to Invest: Masters on the Craft, which gives unprecedented access to legends in the investment industry, including the likes of Dalio, Klarman, Simons, Fitzpatrick, & more.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/13/2022 • 50 minutes
Whitney Baker, Totem Macro – Put Down (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Whitney Baker reading her piece, Put Down. Whitney is the founder of Totem Macro, which leverages extensive prior buyside experience to create unique research insights for an exclusive client-base of some of the world’s preeminent investors. Previously, Whitney worked for Bridgewater Associates as Head of Emerging Markets and for Soros Fund Management, co-managing an internal allocation with a dual Global Macro (cross-asset) and Global Long/Short Financial Equity mandate.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (ASPCA) on behalf of Whitney Baker.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/9/2022 • 32 minutes, 30 seconds
Marlena Lee, DFA – Value, Fama & How To Weather Bear Markets | #441
Today’s guest is Marlena Lee, the Global Head of Investment Solutions for Dimensional Fund Advisors, which manages over $600 billion.
In today’s episode, we start by hearing what it was like to be a TA under the legendary Gene Fama. Marlena gives he thoughts on the state of value investing, the mentality needed to navigate bear markets, and applying factors to fixed income.
As we wind down, Marlena touches on DFA’s entrance into the ETF space and their plans for future launches.
-----
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/7/2022 • 58 minutes, 32 seconds
Jason Buck, Mutiny Fund – Carry, Convexity & The Cockroach | #440
Today’s guest is Jason Buck, founder and CIO of Mutiny Funds, which specializes in volatility, options, hedging, and portfolio construction.
In today’s episode, Jason shares the winding path that led him to launch Mutiny Funds and focus on the risk management side of things. We spend a lot of time talking about what true diversification looks like and why people don’t consider human capital when constructing portfolios. Jason shares how this led him to launch the cockroach portfolio and long volatility strategies.
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/6/2022 • 1 hour, 29 minutes, 11 seconds
Lawrence Kissko & Graham Robertson, Man AHL – Trend-Following in Inflationary Environments (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Lawrence Kissko and Graham Robertson reading their piece, Trend-Following in Inflationary Environment.
Lawrence is a Client Portfolio Manager for Man AHL. Graham is a partner and Head of Client Portfolio Management at Man AHL and is a member of the investment and management committees. He has overall responsibility for client communication across Man AHL’s range of quantitative strategies.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to Haven House on behalf of Lawrence & Graham.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
9/2/2022 • 11 minutes, 50 seconds
Tim Pickering, Auspice – Commodities, CTAs & The LME Scandal | #439
Today’s guest is Tim Pickering, founder and CIO of Auspice Capital.
In today’s episode, we talk all about trend-following and commodities. Tim shares why trend-following can serve as a great diversifier to stocks and bonds, and why it’s a great way to play the current commodity cycle. He ever shares his thoughts on the LME fiasco earlier this year and what his reaction was when he saw his trades were cancelled.
Tim mentions some charts during the episode, so if you want to follow along, click the YouTube link here.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/29/2022 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 10 seconds
Rob Arnott & Campbell Harvey on Why They Believe Inflation Hasn’t Peaked | #438
Today’s guests are Rob Arnott, founder and Chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, and Campbell Harvey, Head of Research at Research Affiliates and Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University.
In today’s episode, Rob and Cam touch on the state of the economy, Cam’s research recessions and yield curve inversions, and why the Fed is not positioned to handle the inflation crisis we have today. They share why they both have a non-consensus view that inflation hasn’t peaked yet. Then they touch on what areas of the market look attractive today.
Be sure to stick around until the end when we chat with Cam on his interest in DeFi and what he’s most excited about in the space.
To listen to Rob Arnott’s appearance in May 2021, click here
To listen to Campbell Harvey’s appearance in August 2019, click here
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/29/2022 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 24 seconds
Joachim Klement – Stocks in the long run… are still risky (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Joachim Klement reading his piece, Stocks in the long run… are still risky. Joachim is a trustee of the CFA Institute Research Foundation and offers regular commentary at Klement on Investing. Previously, he was CIO at Wellershoff & Partners Ltd., and before that, head of the UBS Wealth Management Strategic Research team and head of equity strategy for UBS Wealth Management.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to the Vincentian Society for the Prevention of Cruelty against Animals (VSPCA) on behalf of Joachim Klement.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/24/2022 • 7 minutes, 45 seconds
Tim Alcorn, Baillie Gifford – Lessons from Bessembinder (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Tim Alcorn reading his piece, Lessons from Bessembinder. Tim is the Head of Investment Risk for Baillie Gifford.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to VOCAL on behalf of Tim.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/19/2022 • 13 minutes, 4 seconds
Edward Chancellor – Interest, Capitalism, & The Curse of Easy Money | #437
Today’s guest is Edward Chancellor, financial historian, author of Devil Take the Hindmost, and previously part of GMO’s Asset Allocation team. He’s out with a new book yesterday called The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest, which is equal parts history, financial education and philosophy.
In today’s episode, Edward walks through how interest, debt and money printing are related to things we’ve seen in society today and the past few years: zombie companies, bubbles, and massive amounts of paper wealth.
Then he narrows in on current day and shares why he believes low interest rates are causing the slow growth environment the world’s been stuck in over recent times, along with the bad kind of wealth inequality.
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.com/meb to skip their wait list.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/17/2022 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 2 seconds
#436 – Kevin Van Trump – Here’s What's Going on With Ag Commodities
Today’s guest is Kevin Van Trump, the founder of Farm Direction and the Van Trump Report, which shares proprietary research for investors and ag professionals.
In today’s episode, Kevin walks us through his early career as a trader to now running the Van Trump Report. Then we touch on wild year for the ag commodities and hear Kevin’s thoughts on wheat, soybeans and corn. He touches on the impact of Chinese demand and the shifts he’s seen in the ag markets over his career.
-----
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/15/2022 • 56 minutes, 43 seconds
Ehren Stanhope, O’Shaughnessy Asset Management – The Great Inflation, Factors, and Stock Returns (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Ehren Stanhope reading his piece, The Great Inflation, Factors, and Stock Returns. Ehren is a Principal and Client Portfolio Manager at O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, where he is Responsible for positioning OSAM’s investment capabilities within the context of client needs and the current market environment to key clients throughout the United States.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital on behalf of Ehren Stanhope.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/12/2022 • 24 minutes, 17 seconds
#435 - Radio Show with Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson of RWM
Today’s guests are Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson, co-hosts of the Animal Spirits podcast and employees Ritholtz Wealth Management.
In today’s episode, we touch on the Future Proof wealth festival, which will be in Huntington Beach, CA from September 11th to 14th – all three of us will be there and hope you join us too! We also touch on trend-following, producing content, Twitter, and much more.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Composer. Composer is the premier platform for investing in and building quantitative investment strategies. What used to take Python,Excel and expensive trading software is available for free in an easy to use no-code solution. Learn more at composer.trade/meb.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/10/2022 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 47 seconds
#434 – Lyn Alden – The Macro Landscape & Bull Case for Real Assets
Today’s guest is Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy one of my favorite macro thinkers.
In today’s episode, Lyn gives an overview of how she sees the world today, starting with why the US today reminds her of the 1940’s. She touches on the state of inflation and US monetary policy and what her expectations are for the dollar from here. She shares why she’s bullish on value stocks and real assets, and why she’s closely watching European energy prices going forward.
-----
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, top podcasts and the entire research library. Subscribe for free here.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/8/2022 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 29 seconds
Michael Mauboussin, Counterpoint Global – Everything Is a DCF Model (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Michael Mauboussin reading his piece, Everything Is a DCF Model. Michael is Head of Consilient Research on Counterpoint Global at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2020 and has 33 years of investment experience.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to the Santa Fe Institute on behalf of Michael Mauboussin.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/5/2022 • 29 minutes, 17 seconds
#433 – Dwight Anderson, Ospraie – A Tiger Cub’s Take on The Chaotic Commodity Markets
Today’s guest is Dwight Anderson, founder of Ospraie Management, a firm that actively invests in commodity markets and basic industries worldwide. Dwight previously worked at famed shops like Tudor and Tiger Management in charge of the Basic Industries and Commodities Group.
In today’s episode, we’re talking with one of, if not the best investor to hear from about the chaotic year commodities have had so far. Dwight shares his macro view of the world today and then the micro picture for different commodities across energy, metals, and agriculture. He touches on a few stocks he likes today and then we get into his choice to get into the ag tech space and where he sees opportunities today.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, top podcasts and the entire research library. Subscribe for free here.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/3/2022 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 52 seconds
#432 – Robert Keith, Beartooth Group – Investing for Financial & Environmental Returns Through Ranch Restoration in The American West
Today’s guest is Robert Keith, co-founder of Beartooth Group, a firm offering meaningful, high-value ways for conservation-minded ranch investors, buyers, brokers, and owners to invest in, restore, and sell ranchlands in the American West.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about something every investor looks for – an inefficient market with little information or competitors. Robert buys distressed properties in the ranch real estate market in the greater Yellowstone area, restores them, and provides his investors with both a financial and environmental return.
Robert shares the ins and outs of the process, the attraction to investors focused on sustainable investing, and what it’s been like to have tailwinds like COVID and even the TV hit Yellowstone.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, top podcasts and the entire research library. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
8/1/2022 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 52 seconds
Erin Miles, Bridgewater Associates – Who Will Prove Most Vulnerable to the Pullback in Liquidity? (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Erin Miles reading her piece, Who Will Prove Most Vulnerable to the Pullback in Liquidity? Erin joined Bridgewater in 2009, and is currently Co-Lead of Equities Research and serves as the Operating Chair of the Partnership. She is responsible for leading research to convert insights and investigations into systematic cause-and-effect investment algorithms.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to GiveDirectly on behalf of Erin Miles.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
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Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by website participants are solely their current opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Cambria Investments, Inc. (“Cambria”) or affiliates. The website participants opinions are based upon information they consider reliable but neither Cambria or its affiliates warrant its completeness of accuracy, and it should not be relied on as such.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investment or strategies mentioned in this website may not be suitable for you and you should make your own independent decision regarding them. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you.
7/27/2022 • 12 minutes, 8 seconds
#431 – Scott Reynolds Nelson – How Wheat Made The Modern World
Today’s guest is Scott Reynolds Nelson, the author of Oceans of Grain: How American Wheat Remade the World, and a Professor at the University of Georgia, where he teaches about international finance and global commodities.
Given current events today, our conversation with Scott about the role of wheat on the world couldn’t be more timely. Scott shares why access to wheat has caused the rise and fall of empires, social unrest like the Arab spring, and even plagues, all of which we’re seeing today. Scott walks through why he believes the Russia / Ukraine war is another example of countries going to war for access to wheat and the related trade routes.
As we wind down, we touch on Scott’s research into the history of US financial crises and the role of commodities in each.
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/25/2022 • 55 minutes, 34 seconds
Richard Ennis – The Modern Endowment Story: A Ubiquitous U.S. Equity Risk Premium (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Richard Ennis reading his piece, The Modern Endowment Story: A Ubiquitous U.S. Equity Risk Premium.
Richard managed money at Transamerica and pioneered quant investing in the early 1970s. He helped create the field of institutional investment consulting at A.G. Becker & Co. Richard co-founded EnnisKnupp, the first consultancy to be recognized as a professional services firm.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest’s choice. Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to The Heights Foundation on behalf of Richard Ennis.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/22/2022 • 13 minutes, 54 seconds
#430 - Frank Giustra & Ian Telfer - The Bull Case for Gold
Today’s guests today are Frank Giustra and Ian Telfer, two successful mining executives that built Goldcorp to a $50 billion company.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all about gold with two of the most knowledgable in the space. The guys discuss why the set up today mirrors 2001, a time right before gold when on a big bull run. We also touch on how gold performed during the 1970’s and why they’re so bullish on gold today that they started another mining company, Aris.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, top podcasts and the entire research library. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/20/2022 • 53 minutes, 26 seconds
#429 – Kevin Kelly – How To Invest in Genetic Editing, Residential Real Estate, & The Hotel Industry
Today’s guest is Kevin Kelly, the founder & CEO of both Kelly ETFs and Kelly Intelligence.
In today’s episode, we start with Kevin’s entrance into the ETF space years ago with a Covered Call ETF, ticker QYLD. Then he shares what he’s been up to lately with Kelly ETFs. We talk about some thematic offerings around genetic editing, residential real estate, and hotels, and the bull case for each.
As we wind down, Kevin shares his thoughts on the future of the ETF space and what other products he’s thinking about offering in the future, and if you’re wondering about how China invading Taiwan may effect your portfolio, you won’t want to miss what Kevin has to say.
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, top podcasts and the entire research library. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/18/2022 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 9 seconds
Dan Rasmussen, Verdad Advisers – Emerging Markets Crisis Investing (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)
Today’s episode features Dan Rasmussen reading his piece, Emerging Markets Crisis Investing. Dan is the Founder and Portfolio Manager for Verdad Advisers, a global investment firm that provides a public market alternative to private equity.
The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we’ve shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week.
Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below:
Volume 5
Volume 4
Volume 3
Volume 2
Volume 1
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls. With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream.
Today’s sponsor dollars are being donated to Harvard’s Center for Human Flourishing on behalf of Dan Rasmussen.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/15/2022 • 12 minutes, 19 seconds
#428 – Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg – Bogle is One of the Investing GOATs
Today’s guest is Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence focused on exchange-traded funds and the author of The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about the legend John Bogle. Eric covers his early struggles to get Vanguard off the ground and the impact he’s had on the entire investment community. I even ask Eric what he thinks Mr. Bogle would say about my one major disagreement with him. We also touch on a number of big trends within the ETF industry, including direct indexing, possible consolidation, and Mutual Fund to ETF conversions.
As we wind down, Eric shares some of his favorite ETF ideas that haven’t been launched yet, including a Congressional replication ETF.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/13/2022 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 26 seconds
#427 – Mark Yusko – "With Every Investment We Become Richer or Wiser, Never Both"
Today’s guest is Mark Yusko, Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management and the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital.
In today’s episode, Mark covers the evolution he’s seen in the digital asset space and why he likes applying trend-following approach to crypto. Then we hear about his foray into ETFs and a SPAC idea that I love.
We also touch on China, the Fed, inflation, and how some of his predictions for 2022 look at the halfway point.
To listen to episode 314 with Mark’s friend and Pantera CIO Dan Morehead, click here.
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Today's episode is sponsored by the Bonner Private Wine Partnership. Founded in 2019 by Will Bonner, the Bonner Private Wine Partnership is a group of wine lovers who come together to import great, small batch wines that might otherwise get overlooked by large importers. Click here to get 4 bottles of wine for almost half off plus free shipping.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
7/6/2022 • 1 hour, 9 seconds
#426 – The Best of 1H22 – Zeihan, Grantham, Zelman, Bloomstran, Ilmanen, Arnold, Baker, Grice, Valiante & Ariely
Today we’re looking back at some of our most popular episode in the first half of 2022 covering a range of topics with some amazing guests. I know it’s hard to listen to every episode, so we picked some clips from our most downloaded episodes for you.
We already have a great lineup for 3Q22, so be sure to subscribe to the show or share with a friend who hasn't listened yet!
(0:38) - Sponsor: Bonner Private Wine Partnership (1:50) - Intro (2:14) - John Arnold (8:59) - Whitney Baker (14:00) - Jeremy Grantham (20:12) - Ivy Zelman (24:28) - Gio Valiante (27:08) - Dylan Grice (30:49) - Antii Illmanen (36:20) - Chris Bloomstran (37:56) - Peter Zeihan (44:28) - Dan Ariely -----
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Today's episode is sponsored by the Bonner Private Wine Partnership. Founded in 2019 by Will Bonner, the Bonner Private Wine Partnership is a group of wine lovers who come together to import great, small batch wines that might otherwise get overlooked by large importers. Click here to get 4 bottles of wine for almost half off plus free shipping.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/29/2022 • 47 minutes, 32 seconds
#425 – Dan Ariely, Irrational Capital – Investing in Human Capital
Today’s guest is Dan Ariely, a Founding Partner of Irrational Capital, leading behavioral economist, and author of six books. Dan’s Ted Talks have been viewed over 10 million times.
In today’s episode, Dan starts by sharing what some of his research around finance and investing. We touch on how we can encourage people to save more, the mental challenges with hedging, retirement planning, and why he’s a fan of annuities.
Then we dive into his newest project, Irrational Capital, and the launch of an ETF with a killer ticker: HAPY. He shares an overview of the strategy and what research into the Human Capital factor says about what leaders can do to help their employees and company thrive.
Interested in hearing from another behavioral economist? Check out episode 337 with Nobel laureate Richard Thaler.
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-----
Today's episode is sponsored by the Bonner Private Wine Partnership. Founded in 2019 by Will Bonner, the Bonner Private Wine Partnership is a group of wine lovers who come together to import great, small batch wines that might otherwise get overlooked by large importers. Click here to get 4 bottles of wine for almost half off plus free shipping.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/28/2022 • 57 minutes, 23 seconds
#424 – Robin Goldstein & Daniel Sumner – The Economics of Weed
Today’s guests are Robin Goldstein and Daniel Sumner, two economists and the authors of the new book, Can Legal Weed Win?: The Blunt Realities of Cannabis Economics. If you are a fan of Freakonomics, this episode is up your alley!
In today’s episode, we start with the history of weed and what led to it becoming illegal in the US. Then we get into the competition between the legal and illegal markets, the impact of both good and bad regulations so far, and the future of the cannabis industry from both the business and investment perspective.
As we wind down, our guests share predictions for when it will be legalized at the Federal level, and what their worst-case scenario is for when that happens.
-----
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/20/2022 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 55 seconds
#423 – Mebisode – Shareholder Yield: Does it Work Within Sectors and Industries?
In this Mebisode, Meb reads his post from January 2022, which looks to see if a shareholder yield strategy works within different sectors. To read the entire post, click here.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, top podcasts and the entire research library. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/15/2022 • 9 minutes, 19 seconds
#422 – Best Idea Show – Doron Junger, Sanvia Capital – US Biotech
Today’s guest is Doron Junger, founder and Portfolio Manager for Sanvia Capital, a biotech investment firm, which originally started as a Millennium Partners platform company.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about US biotech! Doron’s extensive background as a doctor and PM with the likes of Citadel, SAC, Millennium and JP Morgan makes him the perfect guest to discuss why this space is so beaten down and what opportunity lies ahead.
After giving us a high level overview of where the sector sits today, Doron shares some areas he’s excited about, including gene-therapy and psychedelics, and companies in each space that he likes going forward.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, top podcasts and the entire research library. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/13/2022 • 1 hour, 47 minutes, 17 seconds
#421 – Jeff Weniger, WisdomTree – Market Update: Inflation, FAANG 2.0 & Signs of A Bear Market Low
Today’s guest is Jeff Weniger, the Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about everything going on in the market and economy. We touch on inflation and why Jeff first tweeted about rising food prices over a year ago. Then we get into the market and discuss the relationship between interest rates and different sectors, the recent outperformance of consumer staples vs. consumer discretionary, and why Jeff is bullish on companies returning cash to shareholders.
As we wind down, Jeff shares some signs he’s looking out for that may signal this bear market has bottomed.
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-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, top podcasts and the entire research library. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/8/2022 • 1 hour, 26 minutes, 5 seconds
#420 – Dan Cooper, ROC Investments – ROC: Return on Character
Today’s guest is Dan Cooper, founder and CEO of ROC Investments, which allocates capital on the basis of the behaviors of the CEOs and their senior executive teams.
Dan shares how he ran a strategy focused on investing in companies with CEO’s that display high character earlier in his career. When he later looked back at the returns and found traditional factors only explained 30% of the strategy’s outperformance, he decided to launch an ETF based on that strategy, ticker ROCI. He shares how he defines character, how he quantifies it, and then how he implements it into a portfolio. Finally he shares what CEO’s exemplify this strategy with stories of executives of Costco, Southwest & Microsoft.
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-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, top podcasts and the entire research library. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/6/2022 • 50 minutes, 49 seconds
#419 – Peter Zeihan – Deglobalization, Depopulation, & What It Means Going Forward
Today’s guest is Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical expert who may be the best person to talk to about the secular changes happening in the world today. His newest book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, will be released on June 14th.
In today’s episode, Peter talks about the two main themes he sees in the world today: deglobalization and depopulation. He touches on what countries set up to thrive or suffer based on these trends. Peter shares why he’s extremely bearish on China and the implications of this on a possible invasion of Taiwan.
Then we get into the war between Russia and Ukraine and related issues within the energy markets, supply chains and food shortages, all of which he thinks aren’t going away any time soon.
As we wind down, we quickly touch on things like inflation, the shale revolution, nuclear energy, and why he thinks the head of the Russian Central Bank may be the smartest person in the world today.
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-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
6/1/2022 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 41 seconds
#418 – Mebisode – Red Light
In this Mebisode, Meb reads his post from February 2022 titled “Red Light," which discussed the risk of an expensive market entering a downtrend. As he said in the piece, "historically speaking, markets have performed poorly when in a downtrend, characterized by higher volatility and drawdowns."
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
5/25/2022 • 11 minutes, 30 seconds
#417 – Andrew Peck, Baron Capital – A Growth Manager’s Take on The Market
Today’s guest is Andrew Peck, co-CIO for Baron Capital, which is known for its long-term, fundamental, active approach to growth investing.
In today’s episode, we’re talking to a growth manager to hear how he’s handling the volatility in 2022. Andrew shares his framework for looking at the markets, the importance for a growth manager to have the fortitude to let your winners run, and what leads him to sell a name from the portfolio.
Then we get into what he sees in the market today and how he’s adjusting his portfolio. We touch on names like CoStar, Gartner, StubHub, and even a private investment in a little company named SpaceX.
We talk a lot on this show about being willing to look different, stick with a strategy over the long-run, and remain disciplined during volatile times, and it was great to talk to a manager doing just that.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here.
-----
Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
5/23/2022 • 52 minutes, 52 seconds
#416 – Jan van Eck, VanEck – Thematic Investing, Gold & Digital Assets, and Financial History
Today’s guest is Jan van Eck, President & CEO of VanEck, which offers value-added exposures to emerging industries, an investment management firm that manages $85 billion.
In today’s episode, Jan shares the origin story of the firm and its’ tie to gold dating back to the 1960’s. Then he shares his macro framework, criteria for launching a fund, and why the firm has starting getting exposure to venture capital.
Next we get into what led him to go down the crypto rabbit hole and launch ETN’s abroad. He shares his big picture thoughts on the crypto ecosystem, his frustrations on how regulators are treating stablecoins, and what his thoughts are on when the Bitcoin ETF will be approved.
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
5/18/2022 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 5 seconds
#415 – Sajid Rahman, MyAsiaVC – The VC Landscape in Emerging Markets From Someone Who’s Made Over 1,400 Investments
Today’s guest is Sajid Rahman, Managing Partner of MyAsiaVC, an early stage venture fund, and the co-founder & CEO of Digital Healthcare Solutions.
In today’s episode, we talk with someone who’s made over 1,400 investments – yes, you heard that right. Sajid shares his journey of breaking into the VC world and then dives in to what he’s excited about today. He touches on areas like Africa, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, and explains what makes each place unique. Then he explains why he’s bullish on fintech, logistics, and edtech, and shares some of his investments he’s excited about today.
As we wind down, Sajid shares why he’s especially bullish on Web3 companies coming out of India.
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-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
5/16/2022 • 58 minutes, 4 seconds
#414 – Tim Laehy – All About Coinbase (COIN) With The Company's Former CFO
Today’s guest is Tim Laehy, a long-time CFO that’s taken 3 companies public and raised over $3 billion dollars in his career.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things Coinbase! Tim was previously the interim CFO for Coinbase so we thought it’d be fun to hear from him about the investment case of the company. We talk about the business model, regulations, security, revenue streams, and the whether or not the company will face margin compression going forward.
As we wind down, we spend some time talking about Tim’s role at Crexi and the potential for blockchain technology to disrupt the commercial real estate industry.
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
5/13/2022 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 52 seconds
#413 – Antti Ilmanen, AQR – Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least
Today’s guest is Antti Ilmanen, Principal and Global Co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management and author of Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least.
In today’s episode, Antti provides a blueprint for investors as decades of tailwinds are turning into headwinds. He highlights timeless investment practices and what the empirical evidence says about things major asset class premia, illiquidity premia and style premia. He shares his thoughts on home country bias, the value / growth spread today, and what he thinks about diversifiers like trend following.
One theme throughout the episode is Antti’s advice to endorse humility in tactical forecasting and through diversification.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
5/9/2022 • 1 hour, 24 minutes, 17 seconds
#412 – Radio Show – Meb's Got News!...YTD Stock & Bond Performance...$7 Gas in SoCal
Today's radio show is with Meb Faber, Justin Bosch & Colby Donovan. We cover:
The Idea Farm is now free!!!
YTD stock & bond returns
Trend-following as a diversifier for 60/40 portfolios
Inflation and rising food prices
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-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
5/7/2022 • 37 minutes, 59 seconds
#411 – Kai Wu, Sparkline Capital – Investing in Innovation, Intangible Value, & Web3
Today’s guest is Kai Wu, founder and CIO of Sparkline Capital, an investment management firm applying state-of-the-art machine learning and computing to uncover alpha in large, unstructured data sets.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about two topics that are important for investors to understand in 2022 – intangibles and innovation. Kai shares how he uses machine learning to track things like brand equity, human capital, network effects, and IP to measure the intangible value of each firm (and how he implements this through his ETF, ITAN). Then he shares why his research leads him to believe value is not dead.
Finally, we talk about his most recent paper about investing in innovation, a popular investment theme that’s under scrutiny as of late. Kai shares why he believes the current drawdown is not driven by pure innovation but by a selloff in expensive unprofitable stocks.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
-----
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
5/4/2022 • 1 hour, 34 minutes, 3 seconds
#410 – Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus – Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
Today’s guest is Chris Bloomstran, President & Chief Investment Officer of Semper Augustus.
In today’s episode, we touch on a lot. Chris shares why the best investors are those who can pivot, why a good business doesn’t equate to a good stock, and what lessons he learned from buy and sell decisions he’s made over the years.
Then we dive into his thoughts on Berkshire and Warren Buffett to get you prepared for the annual meeting this weekend. He shares his expectations for the company and stock moving forward and why he believes Berkshire is well positioned for the energy transition we’re experiencing today.
And don’t think we could get through the episode without touching on some of Chris’ “Twitter Audits” from the past few years.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by MUD\WTR. MUD/WTR is a coffee alternative that supports your morning ritual without all the anxiety and jitters of coffee. Get your starter kit and free frother at mudwtr.com/meb and use code FABER for 15% off.
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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com
-----
Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
4/27/2022 • 2 hours, 53 seconds
#409 – Meb’s Corner – Ben Rollert, Composer – Democratizing Access To Quantitative Investment Strategies
Today’s guest is Ben Rollert, co-founder & CEO of Composer, a platform for investing in and building quantitative investment strategies for free in an easy to use, no-code solution.
In today’s episode, Ben shares what led him to start a new company in the midst of COVID mania in April 2020. He shares an overview of Composer and the different trading strategies they give you access to, including ones by the likes of Swensen, Dalio, Buffet, Markowitz, and yes, even me. We touch on how ease of mixing and matching some of these strategies, who the early users have been, and what future expansion into things like crypto and options may look like.
As we wind down, we talk about his fundraising journey and what it was like to get investments from firms like First Round, Not Boring, Basecamp and Draft Ventures.
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
4/26/2022 • 57 minutes, 59 seconds
#408 – Neil Dahlstrom, John Deere – Tractor Wars: John Deere, Henry Ford, International Harvester, and the Birth of Modern Agriculture
Today’s guest is Neil Dahlstrom, the archivist and historian for John Deere and author of Tractor Wars: John Deere, Henry Ford, International Harvester, and the Birth of Modern Agriculture.
In today’s episode, business wars hits the farm! Neil’s book is a case study on the evolution of the tractor industry and it’s importance during a time the world was experiencing a global plague, World War & food shortages. We touch on all the major players, including a young Henry Ford. We even walk through he different strategies each company took around pricing and distribution.
As we wind down, we touch on the future of the industry with things like autonomous tractors and drone technology.
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
4/20/2022 • 51 minutes, 33 seconds
#407 – Marc Chaikin, Chaikin Analytics – A Quantamental Approach To Investing
Today’s guest is Marc Chaikin, a 50-year Wall Street veteran and the founder of Chaikin Analytics.
In today’s episode, we start by discussing Marc’s early career and what led him to have an approach today that combines both fundamentals and technicals. We hear about some of the 20 factors that make up his model and how it urged him to buy Overstock and Wayfair early in the pandemic. Then, Marc walks us through what industries he’s bullish on today, including energy, financials, and aerospace and defense.
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list.
4/13/2022 • 37 minutes, 30 seconds
#406 – Dylan Grice, Calderwood Capital – Popular Delusions, The End of Duration & Esoteric Investment Opportunities
Today’s guest is Dylan Grice, co-founder of Calderwood Capital, a hedge fund boutique specializing in orthogonal, niche and capacity-constrained hedge-fund strategies. He’s also the author of Popular Delusions, one of my favorite financial newsletters.
In today’s episode, we kick it off by talking about the end of duration and the headwinds that long-duration assets like stocks, bonds, private equity and real estate face going forward. That leads us to talk about why Dylan loves the idea of the cockroach portfolio and what a creature that’s survived over 350 million years can teach us about portfolio construction.
As we wind down, we talk about some esoteric strategies, including mortgage prepayments, cat bonds, uranium and energy (both of which he wrote about a few years ago) and even SPACs.
Dylan was kind enough to share a few of his letters from Popular Delusions, so be sure to check the links below:
• The Death of Duration
• The Cockroach Portfolio
• March Edition of Popular Delusions
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Active Share podcast. If you’re seeking the less obvious and are curious about the ever-changing world and how it affects investing, The Active Share podcast is for you. Hear thought-provoking conversations with thought leaders, company executives, and William Blair Investment Management’s own analysts and portfolio managers as they share unique perspectives on investing in a world that’s always evolving. Listen to The Active Share on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or TuneIn or visit here.
4/11/2022 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 58 seconds
#405 – Gio Valiante – Prepare For The Masters With A Masterclass in Peak Performance in Athletics & Investing
Today’s guest is Gio Valiante, one of the most successful performance coaches in the world. He currently works with some of the top golfers on the PGA Tour and is the Head Performance Coach for the Buffalo Bills. He was previously the Head Performance Coach for Point72.
In today’s episode, we have a masterclass on peak performance to get you prepared for the Masters tomorrow! We kick it off by hearing how Jack Nicklaus played a major rule in leading him to work with people in high finance and professional sports.
We talk about the need to balance mastery vs. ego orientation, how to handle fear and anxiety and still perform at your best, focusing on process over outcome, and how to balance confidence with overconfidence.
Be sure to stick around until the end to hear the commonalities he sees between greats like Tiger Woods & Steve Cohen.
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Active Share podcast. If you’re seeking the less obvious and are curious about the ever-changing world and how it affects investing, The Active Share podcast is for you. Hear thought-provoking conversations with thought leaders, company executives, and William Blair Investment Management’s own analysts and portfolio managers as they share unique perspectives on investing in a world that’s always evolving. Listen to The Active Share on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or TuneIn or visit here.
4/6/2022 • 59 minutes, 17 seconds
#404 – Mebisode – How I Invest 2022
In this Mebisode, Meb reads his article titled “How I Invest 2022” which is an update to a piece he originally penned during the pandemic in 2020. You’ll hear how Meb invests his own money and how that’s changed in the past two years.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by MUD\WTR. MUD\WTR is a coffee alternative that supports your morning ritual without all the anxiety and jitters of coffee. Get your starter kit and free frother at mudwtr.com/meb and use code FABER for 15% off.
4/4/2022 • 21 minutes, 50 seconds
#403 – Ivy Zelman, Zelman & Associates – Here's Why This Housing Expert Says The Market is "Euphoric" and Urges Caution
Today’s guest today is Ivy Zelman, CEO and co-founder of Zelman & Associates, a leading housing research firm. She was recently named to Barron's 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance and gained notoriety leading up to the Great Financial Crisis when she pounded the table the market was overheated, even asking Toll Brothers CEO Bob Toll “which kool-aid are you drinking” on a 2016 earnings call.
In today’s episode, we start by going back to 2008 and hearing what led her to be one of the few housing bears. Then we get into the housing market today, which she describes as euphoric and bonkers. She explains why poor demographics and lack of affordability due to rising rates lead her to think the market is over-extended today.
We also get her thoughts on other important trends effecting the housing market today: the entrance of iBuyers and Wall Street firms, why she doesn’t think housing demand is as high as other analysts, and the impact of supply chain issues.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by MUD\WTR. MUD/WTR is a coffee alternative that supports your morning ritual without all the anxiety and jitters of coffee. Get your starter kit and free frother at mudwtr.com/meb and use code FABER for 15% off.
3/30/2022 • 53 minutes, 2 seconds
#402 – Paul Kim, Simplify Asset Management – Embracing Convexity Through The ETF Structure
Today’s guest is Paul Kim, co-founder and CEO of Simplify Asset Management, an ETF provider focused on helping advisors build better portfolios.
In today’s episode, Paul kicks it off by giving us an overview of Simplify and the firm’s focus on long volatility ETFs that either generate income or hedge downside risk. We discuss the ability to use options in the ETF structure, an idea Paul and his team have embraced to create convex strategies.
After looking back at Paul’s time at Pimco, we dive into some of his strategies. We touch on strategies that hedge bonds and stocks and even Simplify’s thematic health care ETF that gives 100% of the proceeds to charity.
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Active Share podcast. If you’re seeking the less obvious and are curious about the ever-changing world and how it affects investing, The Active Share podcast is for you. Hear thought-provoking conversations with thought leaders, company executives, and William Blair Investment Management’s own analysts and portfolio managers as they share unique perspectives on investing in a world that’s always evolving. Listen to The Active Share on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or TuneIn or visit here.
3/28/2022 • 55 minutes, 49 seconds
#401 – Clay Gardner, Titan – Investment Management Services for The Everyday Investor
Today’s guest today is Clay Gardner, co-founder and Co-CEO of Titan, a retail investment management platform aimed at the new generation of everyday investors.
In today’s episode, we kick it off with an overview of Titan and the firms’ investment philosophy. Clay touches on some of their different offerings, which now includes crypto. We hear about the company’s content strategy, which help both educate investors and keep them invested in the market during volatile periods. Then we hear what other asset classes Clay is thinking of expanding to in the future.
As we wind down, we hear about the firm’s fundraising history, which includes investments from a16z, Kevin Durant, and Will Smith.
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Active Share podcast. If you’re seeking the less obvious and are curious about the ever-changing world and how it affects investing, The Active Share podcast is for you. Hear thought-provoking conversations with thought leaders, company executives, and William Blair Investment Management’s own analysts and portfolio managers as they share unique perspectives on investing in a world that’s always evolving. Listen to The Active Share on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or TuneIn or visit here.
3/23/2022 • 48 minutes, 40 seconds
#400 – Patrick Geddes, Aperio – Lessons From A Customized Indexing Pioneer Who Sold His Firm To BlackRock
Today’s guest today is Patrick Geddes, founder and former CEO of Aperio Group, a leader in the direct indexing space with $42b in AUM when it was acquired by BlackRock for over $1b.
In today’s episode, we kick it off with hearing back Patrick’s days at Morningstar as the Director of Quantitative Research & CFO. Then Patrick shares what led him to start a firm focused on direct indexing and customization over 20 years ago. We talk about why the Great Financial Crisis was an inflection point for direct indexing and why there’s been so much M&A in the space over the last couple of years.
Then we talk about his book, Transparent Investing. We talk about consumer advocacy, the importance of taxes & fees, and ways to counteract some of the behavioral biases we all have.
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Active Share podcast. If you’re seeking the less obvious and are curious about the ever-changing world and how it affects investing, The Active Share podcast is for you. Hear thought-provoking conversations with thought leaders, company executives, and William Blair Investment Management’s own analysts and portfolio managers as they share unique perspectives on investing in a world that’s always evolving. Listen to The Active Share on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or TuneIn or visit here.
3/21/2022 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 14 seconds
#399 – Mary Childs, NPR’s Planet Money – Bond King Bill Gross
Today’s guest is Mary Childs, co-host for NPR’s Planet Money podcast and author of The Bond King, which shares how Pimco and Bill Gross changed finance forever.
In today’s episode, we kick it off with Mary’s time with Planet Money, one of the most fun and popular finance and econ podcasts around. We talk about some of her favorite stories, like why a publicly traded deli in New Jersey was worth $100 million, how Citibank accidentally paid out $900 million, and why you’re giving your boss a loan without realizing it.
Then we dive into her new book, which took seven years to complete and garnered rumors that she was paid $10 million to not publish it! She walks through the history of Pimco and Bill Gross and the irony of a bond manager becoming famous.
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list.
3/16/2022 • 47 minutes, 12 seconds
#398 – Adam Nash, Daffy – Why This Prominent Silicon Valley Operator & Investor Wants To Make Charitable Giving A Habit
Today’s guest is Adam Nash, a prominent Silicon Valley operator and investor who has turned his attention to philanthropy with his newest venture, Daffy, a not-for-profit community built around a new, modern platform for giving.
In today’s episode, Adam starts off by giving an overview of Daffy, which supports over 1.5 million charities, schools, and faith-based organizations. Then he explains why providing low-cost, donor advised funds through the app store may help spur people to donate and help causes they care about. Adam shares how working at or advising companies in the past has impacted how he’s built Daffy, whether it’s the social aspect of LinkedIn, the automation of Wealthfront, or growth strategy of Acorns.
As a special offer for listeners of the show, visit daffy.org/meb/invite and get $25 to give to your favorite charity.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by MUD\WTR. MUD\WTR is a coffee alternative that supports your morning ritual without all the anxiety and jitters of coffee. Get your starter kit and free frother at mudwtr.com/meb and use code FABER for 15% off.
3/14/2022 • 53 minutes, 40 seconds
#397 – Jeremy Grantham, GMO – Short-Term Pessimist, Long-Term Optimist
Today’s guest is Jeremy Grantham, the Long-Term Investment Strategist and co-founder of GMO. It’s been about a year since we first spoke with Jeremy and given his knowledge of financial history, there are few people who are better to hear from about what’s happening in the world today than Jeremy.
We start by touching on his investment in QuantumScape, which he saw grow to $500 million on paper and later decline by 80%. Then Jeremy shares what he thinks the societal implications will be from a huge potential write down of perceived wealth in the US if this superbubble bursts.
He also touches on some of his biggest concerns at the moment: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, labor and materials shortages, poor demographics, and rising inflation.
While Jeremy is frequently referred to as a bear, one of my big takeaways is his optimism and excitement to solve some of the longer-term problems faced around the globe.
If you want to hear our conversation with Jeremy from February 2021, click here.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by MUD\WTR. MUD\WTR is a coffee alternative that supports your morning ritual without all the anxiety and jitters of coffee. Get your starter kit and free frother at mudwtr.com/meb and use code FABER for 15% off.
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(2:52) - Welcome back to our guest, Jeremy Grantham; Episode #286: Jeremy Grantham, GMO
(3:32) - What’s transpired in the past 12 months since he first appeared on the show
(6:14) - Update on his investment in QuantumScape
(12:57) - The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on wheat prices
(19:32) - Would we be better off with robots instead of the Fed?
(22:00) - Societal implications of a possible write down in perceived wealth
(25:35) - Not being able to rely on bond diversification (Ben Inker 4Q21 Letter)
(26:54) - Jeremy’s thoughts on commodities and emerging market value today
(29:53) - Triumph of the Optimists; Credit Suisse Annual Reports
(33:02) - Why Jeremy is as a perma-bear but largely optimistic; Reinvesting When Terrified
(34:59) - What Jeremy is thinking about in the VC world
(38:02) - Jeremy’s take on nuclear power
(45:38) - The cost of capital and inflationary pressures in the coming decade
3/9/2022 • 51 minutes, 16 seconds
#396 – Wes Fulford, Viridi Funds – How To Get Exposure To Crypto In Public Markets
Today’s guest is Wes Fulford, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Viridi Funds and the Viridi Cleaner Energy Crypto-Mining & Semiconductor ETF (ticker RIGZ).
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things crypto mining. Since there isn’t a Bitcoin or crypto ETF in the US, Wes wanted to provide investors the opportunity to get exposure to the crypto markets through the miners themselves. We hear about his background in banking and becoming the CEO of Bitfarms, which he took public in Canada. Then Wes shares why both experiences gave him the idea to launch an ETF focused on crypto miners and related businesses.
We get an overview of the miners’ business model, the importance of clean energy, and how the miners are impacted by the volatility of the underlying crypto prices.
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Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Active Share podcast. If you’re seeking the less obvious and are curious about the ever-changing world and how it affects investing, The Active Share podcast is for you. Hear thought-provoking conversations with thought leaders, company executives, and William Blair Investment Management’s own analysts and portfolio managers as they share unique perspectives on investing in a world that’s always evolving. Listen to The Active Share on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or TuneIn or visit here.
3/7/2022 • 51 minutes, 16 seconds
#395 – Rob Koyfman, Koyfin – Building The Go-To Investing Platform
Today’s guest is Rob Koyfman, founder and CEO of Koyfin, a financial data and analytics platform for researching stocks and understanding market trends.
In today’s episode, we start with Rob’s background at Goldman Sachs under the now Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, David Kostin. Then he shares why a personal pain point later in his career led him to start Koyfin. Rob walks us through the platform, which provides investors without Bloomberg access to professional grade data coverage and the analytical tools. We hear about the ability to use visual tools and create a customized dashboard to see what’s most important to you.
As we wind down, we touch on some wonky client emails and Rob’s annual April Fools emails to users.
As a special offer to listeners of The Meb Faber Show, click here for 10% off for new users.
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-----
Sponsor: If you’re seeking the less obvious and are curious about the ever-changing world and how it affects investing, The Active Share podcast is for you. Hear thought-provoking conversations with thought leaders, company executives, and William Blair Investment Management’s own analysts and portfolio managers as they share unique perspectives on investing in a world that’s always evolving. Listen to The Active Share on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or TuneIn or visit here.
3/2/2022 • 44 minutes, 13 seconds
#394 – Africa Startup Series – Peter Ngunyi, EarlyBird Venture Lab – Accelerating Africa’s Startup Ecosystem
Today’s guest is Peter Ngunyi, founder and CEO of EarlyBird Venture Lab, which provides growth, acquisition and funding strategy for early-stage tech startups.
In today’s episode, we’re talking to someone who’s seen the growth of the continent first hand over the last 40 plus years. Peter begins by touching on his recent transition from operator to investor to help solve startups get access to capital. He explains why African’s have historically mostly seen real estate as the only investment option but are now starting to invest in startups. We hear about areas he’s excited about like retail tech and fintech, and of course some companies he’s excited about.
As we wind down, Peter shares why Africa needs to pave it’s own path and not just copy the US or Chinese model.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
Today’s guest is Duncan Kelm, managing partner for Arrow Point Tax Services, specializing in financial plans and processes for business owners, professionals, and executives with an eye on taxes.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about everyone’s favorite subject – taxes! Tax day is less than 2 months away so this couldn’t be timelier. Duncan walks us through some tax breaks for businesses, individuals & private investments.
We touch on the difference in taxes within the US and then get into the Employee Retention Tax Credit, which Duncan pounds the table about why more people need to know about it. Then we get into my personal favorite, yes, QSBS. We also touch on Opportunity Zones, which long-time listeners have heard us talk about before.
Duncan provided resources related to the conversation today: Employee Retention Tax Credit & his Top Tax Strategies.
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2/23/2022 • 46 minutes, 48 seconds
#392 – Laurens Swinkels, Robeco – The Global Market Portfolio, (Realistic) Expected Returns & Global Factor Premiums
Today’s guest is Laurens Swinkels, Robeco’s Head of Quant Strategy and one of my favorite authors.
In today’s episode, we walk through some of Laurens’ favorite research. We begin with the global market portfolio, how it’s evolved over time and where crypto fits in today. Then we talk about his research on factor performance dating back to the 19th century.
We also cover his framework for determining expected returns for all major asset classes and why he and his team decided to include climate change in that analysis for the first time this year.
Be sure to stick around until the end when we touch on sin stocks, ESG, and even the tokenization of real estate and other assets.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by MUD\WTR. MUD/WTR is a coffee alternative that supports your morning ritual without all the anxiety and jitters of coffee. Get your starter kit and free frother at mudwtr.com/meb and use code FABER for 15% off.
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(1:35) – Intro
(2:20) – Welcome to our guest, Laurens Swinkels
(3:57) – Laurens' research on the global market portfolio (papers here and here)
(11:15) – Link to Laurens’ research
(15:00) – Where does crypto fit in the global market portfolio?
(21:22) – Laurens’ research on global factor premiums since 1800 (link)
(28:09) – How investors should think about factor investing
(31:15) – Laurens’ research into sustainable investing, ESG and sin stocks
(42:38) – Robeco’s huge report on expected returns
(52:18) – Other areas Laurens is researching
(55:37) – Laurens' most memorable investment over his career
2/21/2022 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 6 seconds
#391 – Vinesh Jha, ExtractAlpha – Alternative Data & Crowdsourcing Financial Intelligence
Our guest is Vinesh Jha, founder and CEO of ExtractAlpha, an independent research firm dedicated to providing unique, actionable alpha signals to institutional investors.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things quant finance and alternative data. Vinesh walks through his background at StarMine, which built a Morningstar-esque company for equity research, and then dives into what he’s doing today at ExtractAlpha. He shares all the different ways he analyzes alternative data, whether it’s looking at sentiment and ticker searches or using natural language processing to analyze transcripts from earnings calls. Then he shares whether or not he thinks alternative data can help investors focused on ESG.
As we wind down, we touch on ExtractAlpha’s merger with Estimize and the ability to crowd source financial intelligence.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
2/16/2022 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 44 seconds
#390 - Radio Show - Meb’s Thoughts on Angel Investing After Making 250+ Investments
Today's radio show is with Meb Faber, Justin Bosch & Colby Donovan. We cover Meb’s experience investing in startups, including:
Why Meb started investing in startups
His process for sizing investments
The importance of making an investment plan if you want to invest in private companies
Meb’s biggest wins
Listener questions!
Resources:
Journey to 100x
How I Invest 2022
Meb's Deals
Episodes with founders Meb's invested in
Episodes with VC's and Syndicate Leads
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list.
2/14/2022 • 43 minutes, 53 seconds
#389 – Eric Crittenden, Standpoint Asset Management – The Market Owes You Nothing
Our guest today is Eric Crittenden, Chief Investment Officer of Standpoint Asset Management, an investment firm focused on bringing all-weather portfolio solutions to US investors.
In today’s episode, we’re talking with one of the true systematic investors out there. We start by discussing the potential impact of inflation on investors’ portfolios. Then Eric shares what led him to start a new firm focused on giving people what they need in a format they want – a mix of trend following and global equity beta. We touch on diversification and why Eric’s a true believer in trend following.
To listen to Eric’s first appearance on the podcast, click here
To listen to Eric’s second appearance on the podcast, click here
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
2/9/2022 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 1 second
Cambria Fund Profile Series — Cambria Value and Momentum ETF (VAMO)
In today’s episode of the Cambria Fund Profile Series, Meb discusses the Cambria Value and Momentum ETF (VAMO).
Meb walks through the strategy, which provides exposure to stocks focused on value and momentum metrics, while having the ability to tactically hedge the equity portfolio with strict risk control methods that are completely systematic.
He looks back at the fund’s underperformance prior to 2021, and sheds light on the strategy’s headwinds in recent years.
As the episode winds down, Meb offers some notes from a recent Cliff Asness paper on why the setup for value is as attractive today as it’s been over the past 50 years and explains why he’s excited about this strategy going forward.
2/7/2022 • 13 minutes, 33 seconds
#388 – Scott Lynn & Masha Golovina, Masterworks – The World's Largest Art Buyer on Inflation, NFT's & Reaching Unicorn Status
In episode 388, we welcome our guests, Scott Lynn and Masha Golovina, the CEO and Head of Acquisitions for Masterworks, the newly minted unicorn that’s providing everyone the ability to invest in top tier blue-chip art.
In today’s episode, we start with an update since we first talked with Masterworks back in late 2020. We hear how the company has become the largest art buyer in the world, spending about $45 million per month with over 320,000 investors on the platform. We talk about some trends impacting the art market like inflation and NFTs. Then we spend some time on the acquisition process of paintings. We walk through the difference between buying paintings at auction and private markets and which factors have the greatest impact on prices over time.
This is unlike any episode Masterworks has done before!
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
2/2/2022 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 54 seconds
#387 – Whitney Baker, Totem Macro – How To Play A Once-In-A-Generation Opportunity in Emerging Markets
In episode 387, we welcome our guest, Whitney Baker, founder of Totem Macro, an EM macro consultancy and hedge fund advisory boutique.
In today’s episode, Whitney shares her flows based macro lens for looking at the markets, one she honed at famed shops like Bridgewater and Soros Fund. She says we’re experiencing a cyclical and secular regime change that the market has yet to adjust to.
Then Whitney shares why she believes the US is in an once-in-a-lifetime bubble…and at the same time have a once-in-a-generation value opportunity in broad sections of EM. We touch on the implications of this for both foreign and domestic markets and hear where she sees opportunity.
Whitney shared one of her recent research pieces which are normally only for a select number of the world’s most sophisticated investors, so be sure to check it out here. It – is – fire.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
1/31/2022 • 1 hour, 25 minutes, 34 seconds
#386 – John Arnold – Why The Greatest Natural Gas Trader Walked Away To Pursue Philanthropy
In episode 386, we welcome our guest, John Arnold, arguably the best natural gas trader of all-time and now one of the largest philanthropists in the US, giving away almost half a billion dollars a year.
In today’s episode, we start with John’s rapid rise at Enron and later launching his own fund, Centaurus Advisors, which posted eye-popping returns and led him to become the youngest billionaire in the US in 2007. We talk about the mindset that helped him become a successful trader, and even touch on the time he took the other side of Amaranth Advisors in a famous trade.
Then we hear why, before the age of 40, he decided to wind down his fund, focus solely on philanthropy, and commit to giving away most of his fortune during his lifetime. We talk about some of the problems he’s tackling around public finance, election reform and health care, and hear what has surprised and frustrated him along the way.
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list.
1/26/2022 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 24 seconds
#385 – Startup Series – Jeff Shaw, Underground Cellar - Disrupting E-Commerce Wine Sales Through Gamification
In episode 385, we welcome our guest, Jeff Shaw, founder of Underground Cellar, a new way to discover, buy, and store limited edition wines.
In today’s episode, we’re talking to one of the most passionate, gritty, and determined entrepreneurs around. Jeff begins by explaining where he got the idea to gamify the wine buying process. He shares how the company works – the process of buying the wine, the upgrade algorithm, and the logistics of storing the wine.
Then we hear how Mark Cuban turned him down multiple times, and leveraged that to get an investment from Shark Tank’s Barbara Corcoran. We talk about the experience of going through Y Combinator, raising money from Jason Calacanis, and what lies ahead for this fast growing startup.
As a special offer for listeners of the show, visit Undergroundcellar.com and use the code MEB to get $100 off your first order of $150 or more.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
1/24/2022 • 54 minutes, 1 second
#384 – Robert Cantwell, Upholdings - The Man Behind The First Hedge Fund to ETF Conversion
In episode 384, we welcome our guest, Robert Cantwell, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Upholdings and portfolio manager for the Compound Kings ETF.
In today’s episode, we’re talking to the first person to convert a hedge fund into an ETF and invest in a private company through an ETF. Robert shares why he chose to do the conversion and some benefits of the ETF structure, including transparency, taxes and even short lending to generate income.
Then we get into his ETF, ticker K-N-G-S. We talk about Robert’s philosophy for running a concentrated portfolio of companies that he defines as compounders. We hear his thought process for analyzing a company and he uses Facebook as an example.
As we wind down, we touch on the Chinese Internet stocks and how investors should think about geopolitical risk when investing abroad.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
1/19/2022 • 57 minutes, 43 seconds
#383 – Mike Dudas, 6th Man Ventures – Investing in Web3 & The Metaverse While Launching LinksDAO
In episode 383, we welcome our guest, Mike Dudas, founder and General Partner of 6th Man Ventures, which focuses on investing in Web3 infrastructure and the metaverse. His previous experience at Disney, Google and Venmo gives him a unique perspective on these areas.
In today’s episode, we have a primer on Web3 from someone who’s deploying over $100 million into the space over the next few years. We start with an overview of stablecoins and their role in Web3. Then we get into NFTs and how they relate to DAO’s – decentralized autonomous organizations. We even hear how Mike helped launch LinksDAO, which raised over $10 million in 48 hours with the goal of creating one of the world’s greatest golf clubs.
As we wind down, we hear about some existing portfolio names and why Mike is bullish on the metaverse.
(0:39) – Intro
(1:24) - Welcome to our guest, Mike Dudas
(2:29) - Early career at Disney, Google and Venmo
(9:14) - Working for Paxos
(12:30) - Overview of Web3
(15:49) - Overview of stablecoins & their importance
(25:45) - Overview of NFTs
(29:36) - Mike’s involvement with LinksDAO
(40:20) - The possibility of a DAO buying a professional sports team
(45:45) - The focus of his firm, 6th Man Ventures
(49:25) - Some cool companies he’s invested in
(55:23) - The biggest thing he wants to see come to fruition in 2022
(57:59) - Learn more about Mike; Twitter @mdudas; 6thman.ventures
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
1/17/2022 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 23 seconds
#382 – Dan Zwirn, Arena Investors - A Stoic Approach to Investing
In episode 382, we welcome our guest, Dan Zwirn, CEO and CIO of Arena Investors, a firm focused on global special situations and asset and credit investments.
In today’s episode, we’re diving into the private credit market. Dan walks us through the process of sourcing private deals, the intricacies around structuring, and his framework for hedging currencies and commodities on a deal-by-deal basis. Then Dan explains why he thinks the CLO market is looking a little bubbly and the impact of COVID on his portfolio. Of course we talk about some examples of his recent deals, including one you’ll love hearing about with the AC Milan soccer club.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
1/12/2022 • 55 minutes, 22 seconds
#381 – Leonard Mlodinow - How To Harness Your Emotions To Become A Better Investor
In episode 381, we welcome our guest, Leonard Mlodinow, a theoretical physicist and best-selling author of a number of books, including The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives and Emotional: How Feelings Shape Our Thinking, which releases next week!
In today’s episode, we look at the relationship between our emotions and decisions. Leonard explains how emotions can make us emphasize or de-emphasize certain beliefs and even completely ignore certain data points. Then we dive into how emotions impact our investment decisions. We hear what studies say about how the best traders handle their emotions and talk about the role of social and emotional contagion on financial markets.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
1/5/2022 • 48 minutes, 43 seconds
#380 - Top Podcasts of 2021 – Replay: Jeremy Grantham, Chris Cole, Jeff Seder
Episode 380 is a replay of The Meb Faber Show’s top podcasts of 2021. Guests include Jeremy Grantham, Chris Cole, & Jeff Seder.
(2:53) - Jeremy Grantham puts 2020 in historical context, shares where he sees value outside of the US stock market, and discusses why he's so bullish on venture capital.
(1:21:53) - Chris Cole covers the optimal portfolio to help you grow and protect your wealth for the next 100 years.
(2:42:31) - Jeff Seder shares the best moneyball story you've never heard. He tells us how he used a quantitative approach to discover 2015 Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah.
Click here to listen to the top podcasts of 2020
Click here to listen to the top podcasts of 2019
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Today’s episode is sponsored by GiveWell. GiveWell searches for the charities that save or improve lives the most per dollar. GiveWell recommends a small number of charities that do an incredible amount of good. Visit Givewell.org and donate before the end of the year and have your donation matched up to $250 when you mention "The Meb Faber Show."
12/29/2021 • 3 hours, 35 minutes, 18 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Selected Writing from Prominent Investors and Authors
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 5 in podcast format. You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Contributors:
(2:36) - Campbell Harvey and Michele Mazzoleni, Research Affiliates – Breaking Bad Trends
(31:17) - Jack Vogel, Alpha Architect – Value Investing: An Examination of the 1,000 Largest Firms
(45:09) - Brian Barish, Cambiar Investors – The Virus Plaguing Value
(1:03:55) - Andrew Patterson, Vanguard – The Idea Multiplier: An acceleration in innovation is coming
(1:29:25) - Peter Chiappinelli, GMO – The Passive Aggressive Agg, Revisited
(1:43:26) - Amie Ko, Research Affiliates – A Quick Survey of “Broken” Asset Classes
(2:02:09) - Sean Duffin, Cambridge Associates – Benefits of Global Diversification
(2:18:50) - Greg Obenshain, Verdad Advisers – Sales and Distributions: How revenue growth and distributions drive equity returns
(2:29:35) - John Pease, GMO – Value: If Not Now, When?
(2:48:03) - David Blitz, Pim van Vliet & Guido Baltussen, Robeco – When Equity Factors Drop Their Shorts
(3:00:06) - Vineer Bhansali, LongTail Alpha – Diversifying Diversification: Downside Risk Management with Portfolios of Insurance Securities
(3:09:50) - Laurence Siegel, CFA Institute Research Foundation – Debunking Nine and a Half Myths of Investing
(3:37:35) - Dan Rasmussen, Verdad Advisers – Crisis Investing: How To Maximize Return During Market Panics
Click here to listen to Volume 4
Click here to listen to Volume 3
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Today’s episode is sponsored by GiveWell. GiveWell searches for the charities that save or improve lives the most per dollar. GiveWell recommends a small number of charities that do an incredible amount of good. Visit Givewell.org and donate before the end of the year and have your donation matched up to $250 when you mention "The Meb Faber Show."
12/27/2021 • 3 hours, 50 minutes, 50 seconds
#379 – Peter Livingston, Unpopular Ventures - The Best VC’s Actually Have A Lower Batting Average But A High Slugging Percentage
In episode 379, we welcome back our guest, Peter Livingston, founder of Unpopular Ventures, which invests in early stage technology startups around the globe.
In today’s episode, we hear what’s gone on with Unpopular Ventures since Peter’s first appearance last year and what led him to hire multiple partners to build out his syndicate. Then we take a look at the investment landscape in places like Asia, Africa, and Latin America and hear what he thinks about the high valuations in the private market today. And of course we walk through some names, including Jeeves, his best performing investment.
Be sure to stick around to the end to hear what Peter thinks about some recent news in the venture space about Tiger Global & Sequoia.
To listen to Peter’s first appearance on The Meb Faber Show, click here.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by GiveWell. GiveWell searches for the charities that save or improve lives the most per dollar. GiveWell recommends a small number of charities that do an incredible amount of good. Visit Givewell.org and donate before the end of the year and have your donation matched up to $250 when you mention "The Meb Faber Show."
12/22/2021 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 48 seconds
#378 – Cullen Roche, Discipline Funds - QE Is Not As Powerful As A Lot Of People Like To Think It Is
In episode 378, we welcome our guest, Cullen Roche, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds, a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
In today’s episode, Cullen begins by sharing his framework for thinking about inflation and the impact of both monetary and fiscal policy. He explains the difference between the response to the Great Financial Crisis and what we’re experiencing today and then shares what he expects inflation to look like over the next few years.
Then we get into Cullen’s newest venture, the Discipline Funds ETF, ticker DSCF. He walks us through why he chose to start the fund, the tax benefits of holding low cost index funds in an ETF wrapper when rebalancing, and what the process of launching an ETF was like.
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-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by GiveWell. GiveWell searches for the charities that save or improve lives the most per dollar. GiveWell recommends a small number of charities that do an incredible amount of good. Visit Givewell.org and donate before the end of the year and have your donation matched up to $250 when you mention "The Meb Faber Show."
Today’s episode is sponsored by Public.com. Public.com is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. Start investing with as little as $1 and get a free slice of stock up to $50 when you sign up today at public.com/faber.
12/20/2021 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 7 seconds
#377 – Garrott McClintock, AcreTrader - Live From The 2021 Farmland Investing Summit!
In episode 377, we welcome our guest, Garrott McClintock, a fifth-generation farmer and the Chief Operating Officer of AcreTrader, a farmland real estate investment company offering individuals access to low minimum passive farm investments.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things farmland live from the 2021 Farmland Investing Summit. We talk about the process of sourcing farms and building out the farmland-investing ecosystem. Then we talk about some of the macro tailwinds, the possible risks to the asset class, and the long-term vision of AcreTrader.
Be sure to stick around to hear about my own farm I purchased through AcreTrader in Nebraska!
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
12/15/2021 • 47 minutes, 10 seconds
#376 – Jason Wenk, Altruist - How To Make Financial Advice Better, More Affordable & Accessible To Everybody
In episode 376, we welcome our guest, Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, an all-in-one financial advisor platform.
In today’s episode, we’re talking with one of the most successful fintech startups around! Jason is building an alternative to existing custodians with a mission to make independent financial advice better, more affordable, and more accessible. We get into some of the benefits to aadvisors and how they aligned their fee structure to benefit advisors and their clients.
Then we get into the future of financial advice. We touch on fees, mutual funds, ETFs and direct indexing, and some of the structural issues embedded within the financial services industry.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Public.com. Public.com is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. Start investing with as little as $1 and get a free slice of stock up to $50 when you sign up today at public.com/faber.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
12/13/2021 • 1 hour, 26 minutes, 51 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Dan Rasmussen, Verdad Advisers – Crisis Investing: How To Maximize Return During Market Panics
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Dan take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
12/10/2021 • 11 minutes, 28 seconds
#375 – Jonathan Fell, Ash Park Capital - People Always Overestimate The Extent To Which Tobacco Is A Dying Business
In episode 375, we welcome our guest, Jonathan Fell, founder of Ask Park Capital, where he manages the Global Consumer Franchise funds.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things consumer staples and tobacco stocks. Jonathan has covered the space for over 30 years and shares the drivers behind successful consumer staples. Then we walk through the evolution of the tobacco industry and why he likes the setup for tobacco stocks today. We touch on the company’s current valuations, factor profile, return drivers, and the impact of ESG.
As we wind down, Jonathan shares the impact of direct-to-consumer companies on large incumbents.
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list.
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Disclaimer: Ash Park Capital LLP (“Ash Park”) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom (the “FCA”). Ash Park does not offer investment advice or make any recommendations regarding the suitability of its products. This communication does not constitute an offer to buy or sell shares or interest in an Ash Park Fund. Nothing in these materials should be construed as a recommendation to invest in an Ash Park Fund or as legal, regulatory, tax, accounting, investment or other advice. Prospective investors in an Ash Park Fund should seek their own independent financial advice. The offering materials for an Ash Park Fund may only be distributed in accordance with the laws and regulations of each appropriate jurisdiction in which any prospective investor resides.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Ash Park has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this podcast is accurate, however it does not make any guarantee as to the accuracy of the information provided. While many of the thoughts expressed in this document are presented in a factual manner, the discussion reflects only Ash Park’s beliefs and opinions about the financial markets in which it invests portfolio assets following its investment strategies, and these beliefs and opinions are subject to change at any time.
12/8/2021 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 43 seconds
#374 – Phil Huber, Savant Wealth Management - Expected Returns For That Classic 60/40 Stock Bond Mix Is Significantly Lower Today Than It Has Been In Recent Past
In episode 374, we welcome our guest, Phil Huber, Chief Investment Officer of Savant Wealth management, an independent, fee-only wealth management firm, and the author of The Allocator's Edge: A modern guide to alternative investments and the future of diversification.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things alternatives! With the traditional 60/40 portfolio facing some headwinds going forward, investors and advisors may be looking to add alternatives to their portfolios, so Phil wrote an overview of the different alternative asset classes. We walk through the different alternatives, what sleeve of the 60/40 they should replace, and then talk about the behavioral aspects of implementing some of these ideas.
Be sure to stick around and hear what Phil thinks about the collectibles space as they’re becoming more accessible to investors, and what collectibles he has himself.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Public.com. Public.com is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. On Public, ownership unlocks an experience of content and education, contextual to your portfolio, created by a million+ strong community of investors, creators and analysts. Start investing with as little as $1 and get a free slice of stock up to $50 when you sign up today at public.com/faber
12/6/2021 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 54 seconds
#373 – Tim Maloney, Roundhill Investments – We Hit The Right Theme At The Right Time
In episode 373, we welcome our guest, Tim Maloney, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer for Roundhill Investments, an ETF sponsor focused on thematic and sector-specific investing.
In today’s episode, we’re getting meta! Tim begins with an overview of Roundhill and the firms’ unique strategy around distribution. Then we dive into some of their funds, most notably the fund focused on the metaverse with a ticker I bet Mr. Zuckerberg wish he had. We touch on funds that are focused on e-sports, sports betting and streaming, and even a couple of funds that were launched as a partnership with former podcast guests Tobias Carlisle and Chas Cocke!
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
12/1/2021 • 56 minutes, 31 seconds
#372 – Chas Cocke, LB Partners – There Are Lots of Great Businesses…The Hard Part Is Finding Them At A Really Good Price
In episode 372, we welcome our guest Chas Cocke, founder of LB Partners and previously one of the founding partners of Investure, a firm that started the outsourced CIO model that’s popular today.
In today’s episode, we begin by discussing Chas’ time at Investure and what it was like to work with the top money managers in the world. He covers some trends he sees in the institutional and hedge fund space around both fees and the convergence of public and private markets.
Then we get into Chas’ newest venture, which, as he puts it, will invest in anything, anywhere, unconstrained. We get into its unique structure and talk some of the areas he’s already put money to work. We even discuss his partnership with this coming Wednesday’s guest to launch the IO Digital Infrastructure ETF, ticker BYTE.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Public.com. Public.com is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. On Public, ownership unlocks an experience of content and education, contextual to your portfolio, created by a million+ strong community of investors, creators and analysts. Start investing with as little as $1 and get a free slice of stock up to $50 when you sign up today at public.com/faber.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/29/2021 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 57 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Laurence Siegel, CFA Institute Research Foundation - Debunking Nine and a Half Myths of Investing
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Laurence take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/26/2021 • 29 minutes, 16 seconds
#371 – Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors, HIVE Blockchain – JETS, Bitcoin vs. Gold, & How To Play Supply Chain Issues
In episode 371, we welcome our guest, Frank Holmes, the CEO of not one but two companies – U.S. Global Investors, an investment manager with both ETFs and mutual funds, and HIVE Blockchain, the first cryptocurrency mining company to go public.
In today’s episode, we’re talking ETFs and crypto! Frank starts by sharing what piqued his interest in crypto and why he chose to go down the mining path instead of pursuing a Bitcoin ETF. He offers some macro perspective on crypto and how it differs from gold. Then we turn to the ETF space and hear about Frank’s hit ETF, JETS, which focuses on the airline industry and caught fire in 2020 after the March decline as retail interest skyrocketed.
Be sure to stick around until the end when Frank shares the thesis behind his newest ETF around the marine shipping and air freight industries.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/24/2021 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 29 seconds
#370 – Ashley Flucas, Flucas Ventures - This Is A Really Opportunistic Time For Someone Who's Not Afraid And New In The Game To Get Started
In episode 370, we welcome our guest, Ashley Flucas, founder of Flucas Ventures and General Counsel and Partner for a real estate finance fund.
In today’s episode, we hear how someone with a capital markets law background transitioned into venture investing. Ashley walks us through her path to break in to the world of venture capital, first by participating in deals on AngelList, then building out her own syndicate. She shares how COVID accelerated the transition, allowing her to capitalize on both the lack of capital and shift to a remote world. She shares her investment philosophy, why she benefits from a non-tech background, and what it’s like writing checks while being based in Florida.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Public.com. Public.com is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. On Public, ownership unlocks an experience of content and education, contextual to your portfolio, created by a million+ strong community of investors, creators and analysts. Start investing with as little as $1 and get a free slice of stock up to $50 when you sign up today at public.com/faber.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/22/2021 • 57 minutes, 19 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Vineer Bhansali, LongTail Alpha - Diversifying Diversification: Downside Risk Management with Portfolios of Insurance Securities
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Vineer take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/19/2021 • 11 minutes, 15 seconds
#369 – Africa Startup Series – Maya Horgan Famodu, Ingressive Capital - Africa Holds The Fastest Growing Consumer Class, Fastest Growing Population & Fastest Growing Middle Class in The World
In episode 369, we welcome our guest, Maya Horgan Famodu, founder of Ingressive Capital, a VC fund focused on early stage African tech, and believed to be the youngest person to launch a tech fund in Sub-Saharan Africa.
In today’s episode, we start with Maya’s journey to the African tech scene. She lays out the factors behind the recent explosion in funding that the continent has recently seen - strong demographics, high growth, and rapid tech adoption. Then we get into some companies she’s invested in, specifically a lot of “X for Africa,” the African equivalent of companies like Stripe, Robinhood, Flexport, and Plaid. And we even touch on 54gene, which we highlighted in episode 345.
As we wind down, we hear what lies ahead for Maya now that she just finished raising her second fund of $50 million.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/17/2021 • 36 minutes, 41 seconds
#368 – Rodrigo Gordillo & Corey Hoffstein - You Now Get To Have Your Beta Cake While Eating Your Alpha Too
In episode 368, we welcome our guests, Corey Hoffstein, CIO and co-founder of Newfound Research, and Rodrigo Gordillo, President and PM at ReSolve Asset Management
In today’s episode, we’re talking about return stacking! Corey and Rodrigo joined forces to try and tackle the issue of how to generate returns in an environment with stretched equity and fixed income valuations. We hear how using a little bit of leverage to the traditional 60/40 portfolio can provide more than one dollar of exposure for every dollar invested. Our guests then walk us through what strategies investors can stack on top of their 60/40 portfolio, including global systematic macro, trend following, and tail hedging, and what that does to the risk/return profile.
Be sure to stick around until the end to hear stories about what life is like for people who have actually lived in an inflationary environment.
Please enjoy this episode with Newfound Research’s Corey Hoffstein and ReSolve Asset Management’s Rodrigo Gordillo.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Public.com. Public.com is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. On Public, ownership unlocks an experience of content and education, contextual to your portfolio, created by a million+ strong community of investors, creators and analysts. Start investing with as little as $1 and get a free slice of stock up to $50 when you sign up today at public.com/faber.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/15/2021 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 2 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: David Blitz, Pim van Vliet & Guido Baltussen, Robeco – When Equity Factors Drop Their Shorts
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Erika van der Merwe take over this special episode on behalf of David, Pim & Guido.
To read the original piece, click here
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For detailed show notes, visit mebfaber.com/podcast
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/12/2021 • 13 minutes, 33 seconds
#367 – Robert Lawson, SMU - Initially This Whole Thing Was A Tax Dodge So I Could Go Drink In Cuba
In episode 367, we welcome our guest, Robert Lawson, director of the Bridwell Institute for Economic Freedom at (SMU) and author of Socialism Sucks: Two Economists Drink Their Way Through the Unfree World.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about some of my favorite topics – capitalism, travel, and beer! Robert traveled around the world to visit socialist countries and let’s just say the crappy beer wasn’t the only thing he didn’t like about the trip. We start by defining what true socialism is, why Sweden isn’t actually a socialist country, and look at Venezuela, Cuba, and North Korea to see what true socialism looks like in the world today. Surprise, surprise: it’s not good. Next, we discuss why socialism has a false utopian vision for the world and the reasons why this terrible idea just won’t go away.
As we wind down, we chat about some current topics in the U.S., including UBI, student-loan forgiveness, and the lack of financial education in schools.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/10/2021 • 57 minutes, 49 seconds
#366 – Darius Dale, 42 Macro - Reflation Is Now The Dominant Market Regime
In episode 366, we welcome our guest, Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, which specializes in macro risk management through the dual lenses of asset allocation and portfolio construction.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things macro! Darius walks us through his framework for analyzing macro regimes and then uses it to assess where we stand today. We touch on all the hot macro topics – whether inflation is transitory, the impact of supply chain issues, and how the rise of populism in the U.S. will impact markets.
Be sure to stick around until the end of the episode to hear what Darius says is the most important chart in macro today.
Darius was kind enough to put together a comprehensive deck, so be sure to either check out the episode on YouTube to see him walk through the slides, or click here to follow along yourself.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Public.com. Public.com is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. On Public, ownership unlocks an experience of content and education, contextual to your portfolio, created by a million+ strong community of investors, creators and analysts. Start investing with as little as $1 and get a free slice of stock up to $50 when you sign up today at public.com/faber.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/8/2021 • 1 hour, 26 minutes, 56 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: John Pease, GMO – Value: If Not Now, When?
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let John take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here.
-----
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For detailed show notes, visit mebfaber.com/podcast
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/5/2021 • 19 minutes, 57 seconds
#365 – Dr. Bryan Taylor, Global Financial Data - There Are 100 Ways To Beat The Market; You Just Got To Figure Out What Works For You And Stick To That Plan
In episode 365, we welcome our guest, Dr. Bryan Taylor, President and Chief Economist for Global Financial Data, which provides the most comprehensive, historical economic and financial information available anywhere.
In today’s episode, we put today’s market into historical context. We start by looking at the history of interest rates and then hear why the 2020’s may be “The COVID Decade.” Then we touch on whether or not the dominance of the U.S. stock market will continue, what Bryan’s research shows about seasonality in the stock market, and whether we can learn any lessons from past industries that dominated the way the technology sector has of late.
Please enjoy this episode with Global Financial Data’s Bryan Taylor.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by FarmTogether. FarmTogether is a technology-powered investment platform that enables investors to channel funding into natural assets, starting with U.S. farmland. By driving abundant and creative capital to farmers, we’re giving investors the opportunity to drive agriculture toward sustainability on a massive scale. Alongside a changing climate, the global population continues to grow, with expectations of reaching 9.7 billion by 2050. This means approximately 70% more food will be required than is consumed today. FarmTogether investors are providing the key financial building blocks for a sustainable future.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/3/2021 • 53 minutes, 38 seconds
#364 – Nancy Davis, Quadratic Capital Management - Some Women Like To Buy Shoes And I Love To Buy Options
In episode 362, we welcome our guest, Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management and Portfolio Management for the Inflation Hedge ETF.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things inflation and options with a self-proclaimed convexity snipper! We start by hearing how a conversation with Cathie Wood opened Nancy’s eyes to the benefits of the ETF structure. Then we discuss Nancy’s IVOL product, which has over $3.5 billion in assets in less than three years, and how it may serve as a valuable portfolio diversifier. We hear what she thinks about the recent Fed commentary, what the yield curve is pricing in today, and what her thoughts are around inflation as we wind down 2021.
Please enjoy this episode with Quadratic Capital Management’s Nancy Davis.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Public.com. Public.com is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. On Public, ownership unlocks an experience of content and education, contextual to your portfolio, created by a million+ strong community of investors, creators and analysts. Public puts investors first, and don’t sell your trades to market makers or take money from Payment for Order Flow. Start investing with as little as $1 and get a free slice of stock up to $50 when you sign up today at public.com/faber.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
11/1/2021 • 1 hour, 49 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Greg Obenshain, Verdad Advisers – Sales and Distributions: How revenue growth and distributions drive equity returns
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Greg take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here
-----
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For detailed show notes, visit mebfaber.com/podcast
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/29/2021 • 14 minutes, 45 seconds
#363 – Rick Bookstaber, Fabric – Risk Is The Other Side Of The Coin From Opportunity
In episode 363, we welcome our guest, Rick Bookstaber, co-founder and Head of Risk for Fabric, which provides factor-based risk management applications for investment advisors.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all about risk with someone who’s held Chief Risk Officer roles at Morgan Stanley, Solomon Brothers, Bridgewater, and the University of California pension, and if that wasn’t enough, he also helped write the Volcker Rule while working for the Treasury. Rick begins the episode by walking us through his framework for assessing risk and why the three keys are leverage, liquidity, and concentration. He also shares the lessons he’s learned from surviving the 1987 crash, 2000 tech bubble, and 2008 housing crisis.
As we wind down, Rick shares what led him to start his newest venture and how he plans to assist advisors with risk management for client portfolios.
Please enjoy this episode with Fabric’s Rick Bookstaber.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/27/2021 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 55 seconds
#362 – Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, Data Scientist & Author - You Do Have To Be Willing To Go Where The Data Takes You
In episode 362, we welcome our guest, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, data scientist and author of Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are, which was a New York Times bestseller and an Economist Book of the Year.
In today’s episode, we’re focused on what we can learn from alternative data. We start with Seth’s first book and how mining google search data taught him things about racism, abortion, and yes, even some of our sexual preferences. Then we turn to his upcoming book titled Don’t Trust Your Gut: Using Data to Get What You Really Want in Life and hear what the data says about how to live a better life. Seth walks us through the takeaways for finding a spouse, living healthier, and being happier.
If you’re a data geek like myself, you’ll definitely want to listen to this.
Please enjoy this episode with data-scientist and best-selling author Seth Stephens-Davidowitz.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Public.com. Public.com is an investing platform that helps people become better investors. On Public, ownership unlocks an experience of content and education, contextual to your portfolio, created by a million+ strong community of investors, creators and analysts. Public puts investors first, and doesn't sell your trades to market makers or take money from Payment for Order Flow. Start investing with as little as $1 and get a free slice of stock up to $50 when you sign up today at public.com/faber.
10/25/2021 • 50 minutes, 18 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Sean Duffin, Cambridge Associates – Benefits of Global Diversification
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Sean take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/22/2021 • 20 minutes, 16 seconds
#361 – Jeff Hooke, Johns Hopkins - The Buyout Business…Has Not Outperformed The Public Stock Markets For The Last 10 or 15 Years
In episode 361, we welcome our guest, Jeff Hooke, Senior Lecturer at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School and author of The Myth of Private Equity, which is what we focus on today.
In today’s episode, Jeff pulls no punches when sharing his thoughts on the private equity industry. He likens the belief that private equity has outperformed the market to believing the tooth fairy is real and compares their reporting process to an 8-year-old girl rating her own homework. We dive deeper into the lack of transparency around fees and returns and then discuss the recent approval to allow 401(k) plans to include private equity investments and why that goes against what the great John Bogle believed.
Please enjoy this episode with John Hopkins’ Jeff Hooke.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by FarmTogether. FarmTogether is a technology-powered investment platform that enables investors to channel funding into natural assets, starting with U.S. farmland. By driving abundant and creative capital to farmers, we’re giving investors the opportunity to drive agriculture toward sustainability on a massive scale. Alongside a changing climate, the global population continues to grow, with expectations of reaching 9.7 billion by 2050. This means approximately 70% more food will be required than is consumed today. FarmTogether investors are providing the key financial building blocks for a sustainable future.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/20/2021 • 55 minutes, 2 seconds
#360 – Erin Browne, PIMCO - I Combine Both A Quantitative Approach As A Starting Point…And Then Overlay A Discretionary Point of View
In episode 360, we welcome our guest, Erin Browne, portfolio manager for PIMCO, focusing on asset allocation strategies. She was also named as one of Barron’s 100 most influential women in U.S. finance last year.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things macro with someone who spent time as a Strategist at Moore Capital, PM at Point72, and most recently Head of Asset Allocation for UBS Asset Management, all of which helped Erin develop a framework for looking at the market through both a quantitative and discretionary approach. Erin applies that lens to the world today and shares what she sees, notably the risk of a continued rise in energy prices. She walks us through how that may impact different asset classes and commodity prices.
Next, we look at global equity markets and hear how the U.S. market compares to Europe, China, and emerging markets.
As we wind down, we touch on bonds, interest rates, crypto, and much, much more.
Please enjoy this episode with PIMCO’s Erin Browne.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/18/2021 • 58 minutes, 51 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Amie Ko, Research Affiliates - A Quick Survey of "Broken" Asset Classes
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Amie take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here.
-----
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For detailed show notes, visit mebfaber.com/podcast
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/15/2021 • 23 minutes, 21 seconds
#359 – Africa Startup Series – Aaron Fu, Sherpa Ventures - We Really Care About The Ability of Our Businesses To Uplift The Other Businesses in Africa
In episode 359, we welcome our guest, Aaron Fu, general partner for Sherpa Ventures, which focuses on pre-seed investments across Africa. He’s also the co-founder of Venture for Africa, a fellowship for those interested in working for early stage startups in Africa.
In today’s episode, we hear from someone who’s seen the evolution of the African startup scene since he first moved there in 2015. We talk about the factors behind the explosive growth the continent has seen in the past few years. Then we hear what led Aaron to launch his own fund last year and the stories of companies he’s funded, which exemplify both the opportunities and challenges they face.
As we wind down, Aaron shares the difference between the startup community in Africa and Silicon Valley.
Please enjoy this episode with Sherpa Ventures’ Aaron Fu.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/13/2021 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 31 seconds
#358 – Africa Startup Series – Zachariah George, Launch Africa Ventures - The Evolution of Tech In Africa Had To Always Start With Fintech
In episode 358, we welcome our guest, Zachariah George, Managing Partner at Launch Africa Ventures, Africa’s leading early-stage VC fund, and the co-founder and CIO of Startupbootcamp AfriTech, the leading venture accelerator program in Africa.
In today’s episode, we start by hearing how volunteering at an African orphanage changed Zach’s life, convincing him to leave Wall Street and move to Africa to eventually launch the first accelerator there. Then we hear about all the areas technology is touching that Zach is excited about, including education, healthcare, finance, transportation, and more.
As we wind down, Zach shares the challenges companies face when navigating the different countries across the continent.
Please enjoy this episode with Launch Africa Ventures’ Zach George.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is brought to you by Vinovest. Vinovest makes it easy to invest in fine wine. Vinovest’s investment platform lets you buy and sell wines that have increased in value like Screaming Eagle and Chateau Lafite. Vinovest provides you with access to some of the finest wines in the world, and takes care of the storage, insurance and authentication of each wine in your portfolio. You can get started in just minutes online. Go to vinovest.co to create an account and invest in fine wine today.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/11/2021 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 53 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Peter Chiappinelli, GMO – The Passive Aggressive Agg, Revisited
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Peter take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here
-----
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For detailed show notes, visit mebfaber.com/podcast
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/8/2021 • 18 minutes, 1 second
#357 – Marko Papic, Clocktower Group - If You Don’t Make Calls, Why Are You In This Industry?
In episode 357, we welcome our guest, Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at the Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm, where he leads the firm’s Strategy Team, providing bespoke research on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets.
In today’s episode, we’re talking geopolitics and the markets. Marko recently released the book Geopolitical Alpha and he shares his framework for understanding how geopolitical events will affect the markets. Then we talk current events and how he views them. We talk about the implications of Evergrande and why Marko does not believe China will try to takeover Taiwan. Next we talk about the implications of rising food and commodity prices and whether that will cause social unrest around the globe.
As we wind down, we talk about the ESG and sustainability trend and finish by hearing what Marko thinks about inflation, interest rates and the U.S. stock market.
Please enjoy this episode with Clocktower Group’s Marko Papic.
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by FarmTogether. FarmTogether is a technology-powered investment platform that enables investors to channel funding into natural assets, starting with U.S. farmland. By driving abundant and creative capital to farmers, we’re giving investors the opportunity to drive agriculture toward sustainability on a massive scale. Alongside a changing climate, the global population continues to grow, with expectations of reaching 9.7 billion by 2050. This means approximately 70% more food will be required than is consumed today. FarmTogether investors are providing the key financial building blocks for a sustainable future.
10/6/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 31 seconds
#356 – Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group - The Wildcard Is Inflation and Whether It’s Truly Transitory
In episode 356, we welcome our guest, Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist of The Leuthold Group, an independent investment research firm.
In today’s episode, we’re talking markets with someone who’s been at it for over 30 years. Jim explains why the shift from a depressionary bust to a post-war boom last year was unlike anything he’s seen. Then we talk about where current sentiment is and how investors are positioned. Finally, Jim walks through his framework for analyzing whether inflation is truly transitory and what he expects to happen as the Fed continues to taper.
Be sure to stick around and hear where Jim thinks you should and shouldn’t be invested if we experience a market pullback.
Please enjoy this episode with The Leuthold Group’s Jim Paulsen.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/4/2021 • 49 minutes, 38 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Andrew Patterson, Vanguard - The Idea Multiplier: An acceleration in innovation is coming
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Andrew take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, visit mebfaber.com/podcast
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
10/1/2021 • 29 minutes, 24 seconds
#355 – Sheel Mohnot, Better Tomorrow Ventures - We Think That We're In The Very Early Innings of Fintech
In episode 355, we welcome our guest, Sheel Mohnot, Better Tomorrow Ventures, a fintech-focused VC fund focused on pre-seed and seed companies around the globe.
In today’s episode, we’re talking with one of the most prolific fintech investors around. We talk about why Sheel’s so bullish on the fintech space and focuses so much on the founders at the seed stage. Then Sheel shares what it was like to raise a fund during COVID with former podcast guest Jake Gibson. He walks through some of the investments he’s made to date and what piqued his interest in each.
As listeners know, I’m excited about the future of Africa, so be sure to stick around to hear why Sheel is also bullish on the region.
Please enjoy this episode with Better Tomorrow Ventures’ Sheel Mohnot.
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is brought to you by Vinovest. Vinovest makes it easy to invest in fine wine. Vinovest’s investment platform lets you buy and sell wines that have increased in value like Screaming Eagle and Chateau Lafite. Vinovest provides access, storage, and insurance. All you have to do is sit back, relax, and enjoy a glass of wine. In fact, fine wine has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 20 years. You can get started in just minutes online. Go to vinovest.co to create an account and invest in fine wine today.
9/29/2021 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 54 seconds
#354 – Shawn Merani, Parade Ventures - The Seed And Pre-Seed Stage, You’re Betting On People
In episode 354, we welcome our guest, Shawn Merani, founder and Managing Partner of Parade Ventures, a pre-seed & seed stage-focused venture capital firm.
In today’s episode, we hear what it’s like to invest at the pre-seed and seed stage from someone who’s invested in companies like Dollar Shave Club, Cruise, Stance, and more! Shawn walks us through what it was like to launch what he called a “venture partner program on steroids” on AngelList years ago. He walks us through his investment philosophy and why he focuses mainly on both the consumer and enterprise space.
Of course we chat about some names, including Inkbox, Homelister, and a company providing software to veterinarians.
Please enjoy this episode with Parade Ventures’ Shawn Merani.
-----
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/27/2021 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 41 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Brian Barish, Cambiar Investors – The Virus Plaguing Value
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Brian take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, visit mebfaber.com/podcast
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/24/2021 • 23 minutes, 5 seconds
#353 – Artem Milinchuk, FarmTogether - Everything Pointed Towards This Massive Democratization of Alternative Investing
In episode 353, we welcome our guest, Artem Mililchuk, founder and CEO of FarmTogether, an investment platform providing accredited investors with direct access to farmland.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about farmland! Artem is working to allow everyday investors the ability to invest in farmland and has surpassed $100 million AUM with over 30 deals in two years. We start by hearing about the process of buying part of a farm through the FarmTogether platform. We talk about trends in the space, including the impact of inflation, climate change and sustainability.
As we wind down, Artem shares his future plans for the company and what countries may offer an attractive investment opportunity.
Please enjoy this episode with FarmTogether’s Artem Milinchuk.
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/22/2021 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 44 seconds
#352 – James Rasteh, Coast Capital - The World Is Running Out Of Gold
In episode 352, we welcome our guest, James Rasteh, founder of Coast Capital, a fund that takes a private equity approach to investing in public markets.
In today’s episode, we talk about gold miners, European activism, and ESG. James starts by explaining why he’s so bullish on gold miners from both a macro and micro perspective that he created a fund dedicated to activist investing in that space. Then we talk about the opportunity set in Europe and why James believes the valuation difference between the U.S. and Europe isn’t justified. We even talk about the difference between being an activist investor in the U.S. and Europe.
As we wind down, James shares his frustration with the finance industry’s use of ESG as mainly a marketing exercise.
Please enjoy this episode with Coast Capital’s James Rasteh.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Hone Health. Did you know men's testosterone levels can decrease by 1% - 2% per year after the age of 30? Addressing low testosterone and optimizing your hormones can improve your energy, increase your libido and muscle mass. Hone offers a safe and convenient solution to get hormone testing and meds from the comfort of home. Complete your at home biomarker testing, video chat with a doctor and get FDA approved medications that are delivered directly to your door. For a limited time only, listeners can get their at home assessment test and doctor consultation for only $45. Head over to honehealth.com/Meb to take advantage now.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/20/2021 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 7 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Jack Vogel, Alpha Architect - Value Investing: An Examination of the 1,000 Largest Firms
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Jack take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, visit mebfaber.com/podcast
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/17/2021 • 17 minutes, 51 seconds
#351 – Leigh Drogen, Starkiller Capital - If This Thing Isn’t Dead Yet, It’s Not Going To Die
In episode 351, we welcome our guest, Leigh Drogen, General Partner of Starkiller Capital, an institutional investment firm employing both quantitative and fundamental strategies to blockchain based digital assets.
In today’s episode, we start with a brief overview of the asset management space and what Leigh learned from running Estimize, the largest estimates financial platform in the world. Then we turn to crypto. We hear what sparked Leigh’s interest in the space and the process of building a trend and momentum model that led him to push his chips all in last October.
We talk about the importance of crypto’s incentive structure, what things like staking and crypto lending mean, and what some of the biggest risks are in the space.
Please enjoy this episode with Starkiller Capital’s Leigh Drogen.
-----
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is brought to you by Vinovest. Vinovest makes it easy to invest in fine wine. Vinovest’s investment platform lets you buy and sell wines that have increased in value like Screaming Eagle and Chateau Lafite. Vinovest provides access, storage, and insurance. All you have to do is sit back, relax, and enjoy a glass of wine. In fact, fine wine has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 20 years. You can get started in just minutes online. Go to vinovest.co to create an account and invest in fine wine today.
9/15/2021 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 24 seconds
#350 – Startup Series – Saad Alam, Hone Health – 40% Of Men Over 35 Have Hormone Imbalance With Testosterone
In episode 350, we welcome our guest, Saad Alam, founder and CEO of Hone Health, a company that helps you fix hormonal imbalances and low testosterone by offering at-home blood tests, 30 minute telehealth consults, and medications delivered directly to your door.
In today’s episode, we’re talking men’s health! Saad walks us through how his personal experience of being told he had the hormone levels of a 70-year-old man gave him the idea for the company. We discuss the reasons for the decline in both testosterone and fertility in men. Then we walk through the process of getting your testosterone levels tested with Hone Health and later doing a visit with a doctor to help restore your levels back to normal.
As a special offer for listeners of the show, visit www.honehealth.com/saad to get 25% off your order.
Please enjoy this episode with Hone Health’s Saad Alam.
-----
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/13/2021 • 49 minutes, 25 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 5: Campbell Harvey and Michele Mazzoleni, Research Affiliates – Breaking Bad Trends
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 5.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Professor Harvey and Michele take over this special episode.
To read the original piece, click here.
-----
Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube
For detailed show notes, visit mebfaber.com/podcast
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/10/2021 • 32 minutes, 39 seconds
#349 – Anthony Zhang, Vinovest - You Should Separate Your Drinking Preferences From Your Investment Preferences
In episode 349, we welcome our guest, Anthony Zhang, founder and CEO of Vinovest, a platform for investing in a managed portfolio of fine wines.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about wine as an asset class. We start with Anthony’s background, which includes a Thiel fellowship. Then we dive into the ins and outs of investing in wine. Anthony walks us through wine’s investment case and how it compares to traditional stocks and bonds. Then we walk through the process of investing in wine through Vinovest, which does the analysis, bidding, inspection, and storage on your behalf. We touch on the different offerings, taxes, fees, risks, and trends affecting the industry today.
Please enjoy this episode with Vinovest’s Anthony Zhang.
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
-----
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit www.masterworks.io/meb and use promo code “MEB” to skip their wait list.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/8/2021 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 51 seconds
#348 – Zach Coelius, Coelius Capital - I Like To Play Where It’s Still Qualitative
In episode 348, we welcome our guest, Zach Coelius, the Managing Partner of Coelius Capital and angel investor in early-stage startups.
In today’s episode, we’re chatting angel investing with one of Angel List’s top syndicates. We talk about Zach’s transition from entrepreneur to investor and the difference between the two. Then we get into Zach’s investment philosophy and the benefits of being stage agnostic.
Be sure to stick around until the end when we talk about some of Zack’s portfolio companies, including $30 billion autonomous driving company Cruise and former podcast guest Shane Heath’s MUD/WTR.
Please enjoy this episode with Coelius Capital’s Zach Coelius.
-----
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To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/6/2021 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 57 seconds
#347 – Radio Show – Wes Gray & Patrick Cleary, Alpha Architect – All Things ETFs
Episode 347 has a radio show format with Alpha Architect’s Wes Gray and Patrick Cleary. We cover a variety of ETF-related topics, including:
- Current state of the ETF space
- The ins-and-outs of launching an ETF
- Mutual fund conversions, active funds and index funds
- Crypto ETF predictions!
If you enjoy this episode, be sure to check out episode 258 with Wes Gray on how to launch an ETF.
Please enjoy today’s Radio Show with Alpha Architect’s Wes Gray and Patrick Cleary.
-----
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/3/2021 • 1 hour, 25 minutes, 18 seconds
#346 – William Bernstein on The Delusions of Crowds
In episode 346, we welcome our guest, Dr. William Bernstein, neurologist, author, and co-founder of Efficient Frontier Advisors.
Click here to listen to Dr. Bernstein's first appearance on The Meb Faber Show.
In today’s episode, we start by covering Dr. Bernstein’s recent book, The Delusions Of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups. He explains why we’re susceptible to manias and walks us through situations that have seen extreme speculation. Then we turn to discuss today’s market. We cover Robinhood, meme stocks, lofty valuations, and crypto. We even get into what narratives Dr. Bernstein sees today, whether it’s with star fund managers or the idea that the Fed will save the market.
Please enjoy this episode with Efficient Frontier Advisors’ Bill Bernstein.
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Today's episode is sponsored by Fellow. Fellow is revolutionizing access to men's reproductive healthcare and offers the only lab-certified, mail-in semen analysis that exceeds all standards for FDA validated semen analysis methods. With their at-home fertility test, you can skip the uncomfortable clinic experience and still get accurate, comprehensive, lab-grade results that are approved by a physician and easy to understand. All the while, you can preserve your fertility for when you may need your most fertile sperm. As a special offer for listeners of the show, visit meetfellow.com and use the code MEB to get $20 off your order.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
9/1/2021 • 57 minutes, 3 seconds
#345 – Africa Startup Series – Dr. Abasi Ene-Obong, 54gene - There Really Hasn’t Been Human Genomics Infrastructure In Africa
In episode 345, we welcome our guest, Dr. Abasi Ene-Obong guest is the founder of 54gene, a company pioneering the inclusion of the African genome in research.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about genetics. Less than 3% of genomic data represented in research is from African populations and Abasi is changing that. He walks us through the origin story of the company and the ins and outs of what it’s like to both gather and analyze genetic data. Then Abasi shares the process of partnering with pharmaceutical companies and what the long-term prospects of the company are.
Please enjoy this episode with 54gene’s Abasi Ene-Obong.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
8/30/2021 • 43 minutes, 26 seconds
#344 – Jared Dillian, The Daily Dirtnap - The Cardinal Sin In Investing Is Selling Too Soon
In episode 344, we welcome back our guest, Jared Dillian, author, DJ, and editor of The Daily Dirtnap.
Click here to listen to Jared's first episode on The Meb Faber Show.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all about the current market environment. Jared begins by explaining why he thinks we experienced a shift to an inflationary regime and what assets he expects to do well going forward. He shares his thoughts on gold, value vs. growth, and the low valuations in both Japan and Europe.
Be sure to stick around until the end to hear why Jared thinks investment professionals should not take the CFA anymore.
Please enjoy this episode with The Daily Dirtnap’s Jared Dillian.
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To learn more about our products and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by NordVPN. NordVPN strives to make the internet better than it is today. It can be free from online threats, censorship, and surveillance. What started with a single VPN server is now one of the most trusted internet security providers in the market, serving over 14 million users worldwide. Known for strong values and well-thought-out features, NordVPN is recognized by influential tech sites and IT security specialists. Visit www.nordvpn.com/meb for a 73% off 2-year plan plus 4 months free.
8/27/2021 • 52 minutes, 1 second
#343 – Dr. Nathan Myhrvold, Intellectual Ventures - Pizza In The United States Is What Convinced The World That Pizza Was A Great Thing
In episode 343, we welcome our guest, Dr. Nathan Myhrvold, one of the most prolific inventors with over 900 U.S. patents awarded. He graduated high school at 14, studied under Stephen Hawking in college, became the first Chief Technology Officer at Microsoft, and is now the founder of Intellectual Ventures, where he focuses on tackling big questions.
In today’s episode, we start by talking about one of Nathan’s biggest passions – food! He’s written 2 James Beard award-winning cookbooks and is coming out with a three volume, 1,700-page book about pizza later this year. We walk through the science, stories, culture, and history behind pizza and get his advice on how to make the perfect pizza. Then we discuss the state of innovation in the U.S. and how he thinks we can fight some of the world’s biggest problems like climate change and combatting diseases.
Please enjoy this episode with Intellectual Ventures’ Dr. Nathan Myhrvold.
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
8/25/2021 • 57 minutes, 1 second
#342 – Aaron Edelheit, Mindset Capital - The Best Investors Are Those That View It As A Game
In episode 342, we welcome our guest, Aaron Edelheit, CEO of Mindset Capital, a private investment firm.
In today’s episode, we start with Aaron’s time as the CEO of The American Home, a company he grew to over 2,500 single-family rental homes and sold in 2015 to a REIT for over $250 million. He explains why that experience has led him to be bullish on Mexican homebuilders and why he thinks one specific homebuilder is the most undervalued company in North America.
Then we turn to why Aaron thinks it’s helpful for investors to play video games and why he thinks Nintendo is undervalued.
As we wind down, we touch on the cannabis space and why Aaron is bullish on the sector.
Please enjoy this episode with Mindset Capital’s Aaron Edelheit.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
8/23/2021 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 10 seconds
#341 – Lyle Fitterer, Baird Asset Management - You Could Even Argue That They’re Better Credits Than The Federal Government
In episode 341, we welcome our guest, Lyle Fitterer, portfolio manager for Baird Asset Management, where he runs a $1.8 billion municipal bond fund.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things muni’s. Lyle begins with an overview of the muni bond market and the benefit of tax-exempt income for investors. Then we hear how Lyle went on the offensive when the COVID drawdown occurred last year. Finally, we walk through some of the different factors affecting the muni market right now, including state and local budgets, expectations for higher taxes and an infrastructure bill, and interest rates.
Be sure to listen until the end to hear what sectors Lyle avoids within the muni space.
Please enjoy this episode with Baird Asset Management’s Lyle Fitterer.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Ugly Drinks. Meet ugly sparkling water: the childhood tastes you love without the sugar, sweeteners or calories you don't. Beyond quenching your thirst, ugly celebrates the real, the raw, the imperfect - the ugly truth. As a special offer for listeners of the show, visit uglydrinks.com and use the code UGLYMEB to get 20% off your order.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
8/18/2021 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 7 seconds
#340 – Michael Suffredini, Axiom Space - The Only Thing I Know How To Do Is Build And Operate A Space Station
In episode 340, we welcome our guest, Michael Suffredini, CEO and co-founder of Axiom Space, which is building the world’s first internationally available commercial space station.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all about space travel. We start by hearing about Mike’s time running the International Space Station. Then Mike shares what led him start Axiom Space and undertake the task of building the first commercial space station. He walks us through the business model of a commercial space station and what Axiom’s competitive advantage is when competing with China and Russia. Then we talk about the space economy, including the potential benefits for pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, and even 3-D organ printing.
As we wind down, Mike talks about Axiom’s recent 130 million dollar Series B and whether or not an IPO may be in store in the future.
Please enjoy this episode with Axiom Space’s Michael Suffredini.
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
8/16/2021 • 56 minutes, 9 seconds
#339 – George Davis, Hotchkis & Wiley - We’re In Unchartered Territory Right Now
In episode 339, we welcome our guest, George Davis, CEO and Portfolio Manager for Hotchkis & Wiley, a global investment manager serving institutional and individual investors.
In today’s episode, we’re talking long term value investing. We start with George’s investment philosophy and then walk through how he views the market today, seeing value in both financials and energy stocks. We talk about what it’s been like to invest for over 33 years, the lessons he’s learned along the way, and what attributes make a great investor.
As we wind down, George talks a little about the business side of asset management and what it’s been like leading a firm that’s been around for over four decades.
Please enjoy this episode with Hotchkis & Wiley’s George Davis.
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Use Promo Code “MEB” to skip their wait list.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
8/11/2021 • 50 minutes, 36 seconds
#338 – Startup Series – Will Matthews, Fellow – Semen Quality Is The Canary In The Coal Mine To Overall Health
In episode 338, we welcome our guest, Will Matthews, the founder and CEO of Fellow, a company that’s rethinking the future of men’s fertility and runs the largest semen analysis lab in the U.S.
In today’s episode, we’re covering the topic that men like to shy away from – sperm health! We start by discussing the decline in fertility rates in the West and the possible reasons why – stress, obesity, and chemical exposure. Then Will shares what it was like to create the first clinic grade direct-to-consumer semen analysis kit so you can avoid that awkward doctor’s visit.
As we wind down, Will shares his vision of creating a flywheel effect, using test data to conduct research and in turn use that research to fine-tune their test kits.
As a special offer for listeners of the show, visit meetfellow.com and use the code MEB to get $20 off your order.
Please enjoy this episode with Fellow’s Will Matthews.
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To learn more about our products and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com.
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
8/9/2021 • 50 minutes, 11 seconds
#337 – Professor Richard Thaler, University of Chicago - When Somebody Would Fire Us, It Was Almost Always At Exactly The Wrong Time
In episode 337, we welcome our guest, Professor Richard Thaler, the co-founder of Fuller & Thaler, Professor at the University of Chicago, and author of multiple best-selling books, including his release this week, Nudge: The Final Edition.
In today’s episode, we’re talking nudges! We talk about all the ways choice architecture and nudges affect financial services – including how we save for retirement, pay our taxes, and choose an insurance plan. We cover some fintech companies using his ideas to help consumers have better outcomes, and then cover some companies that are nudging consumers in the wrong direction.
As we wind down, Professor Thaler shares the concept of sludge and how it applies to things like cancelling subscriptions or registering for the new child income credit payments.
Please enjoy this episode with University of Chicago Professor Richard Thaler.
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To learn more about our products and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by NordVPN. NordVPN strives to make the internet better than it is today. It can be free from online threats, censorship, and surveillance. What started with a single VPN server is now one of the most trusted internet security providers in the market, serving over 14 million users worldwide. Known for strong values and well-thought-out features, NordVPN is recognized by influential tech sites and IT security specialists. Visit www.nordvpn.com/meb for a 73% off 2-year plan plus 4 months free.
8/4/2021 • 55 minutes, 31 seconds
#336 – Hugh Thomas, Ugly Drinks - This Is The Result Of Two 23-Year Olds In A Pub In London Having A Couple Of Beers
In episode 336, we welcome our guest, Hugh Thomas, founder of Ugly Drinks, a beverage company that makes drinks with no sugar, no sweetener, and no calories and is trying to expose the ugly truth about big beverage.
In today’s episode, we hear how Hugh fell in love with the beverage industry so much that he started a company to provide people with a healthy drink at an affordable price. What started with him walking around London to sell drinks one store at a time has now reached over 15,000 stores around the globe! Hugh shares the story of the brand and marketing with the ‘ugly’ name, why there’s such a need for a healthy drink in the market, and what it was like to embrace direct-to-consumer during COVID.
As a special offer for listeners of the show, visit uglydrinks.com and use the code UGLYMEB to get 20% off your order.
Please enjoy this episode with Ugly Drinks’ Hugh Thomas.
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For detailed show notes, click here
To learn more about our products and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
8/2/2021 • 46 minutes, 51 seconds
#335 – Thomas Eiden, Atomic Alchemy - There Is A Vast Shortage Of Man Made Radioactive Materials
In episode 335, we welcome our guest, Thomas Eiden, founder of Atomic Alchemy, a company dedicated to producing radioisotopes used in nuclear medicine.
In today’s episode, we’re going nuclear! Thomas is undertaking the audacious goal of building a nuclear reactor, something that takes almost a decade and roughly 100 million dollars. We start with what sparked his interest in nuclear energy and what gave him the nudge to apply to Y Combinator and raise seed capital with just a business plan. We take some time to dispel myths around why nuclear energy is dangerous and then pivot to talk about the uses in the medical field, whether it’s with MRI’s or trying to fight cancer.
Please enjoy this episode with Atomic Alchemy’s Thomas Eiden.
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To learn more about our products and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com.
-----
Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
7/30/2021 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 3 seconds
#334 – Peter Johnson, Jump Capital - What I Think About Most Of The Time Is What Crypto Is Going To Mean To The World
In episode 334, we welcome our guest, Peter Johnson, a partner at Jump Capital, where he leads Jump’s investments in the FinTech, crypto, and blockchain sectors.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all things fintech. Peter shares a bunch of his investments, including his first ever investment in Personal Capital, which was acquired in a billion dollar deal. We also talk about the fractionalization of assets and Peter’s investment in former podcast guest Carter Malloy and AcreTrader.
As we wind down, we get into our Peter’s entrance in the crypto space and discuss both the potential for the Bitcoin ETF and their Y Combinator for DeFi.
Please enjoy this episode with Jump Capital’s Peter Johnson.
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For detailed show notes, visit mebfaber.com/podcast
To learn more about our products and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com.
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
7/28/2021 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 41 seconds
#333 – Startup Series – Rob Forster, Wonderbird Spirits - Making Gin Is Truly An Art
In episode 333, we welcome our guest, Rob Forster, co-founder of Wonderbird Spirits, Mississippi's first grain-to-glass gin distillery.
In today’s episode, we hear how Rob stopped practicing law and decided to open up a distillery to create two gold-medal winning gins. Rob shares what it was like to get the company off the ground and then dives into the process of distilling the alcohol from start to finish. We talk about the regulatory differences to sell directly to restaurants and sell DTC in 37 states, and why the little things like choosing what bottle to use makes a huge difference.
As we wind down, we hear about Wonderbird Spirits’ current fundraising experience and what the future holds for the company.
Please enjoy this episode with Wonderbird Spirits’ Robert Forster.
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To learn more about our products and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com.
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Today's sponsor rides on two wheels: Riders Share is the Airbnb of motorcycles. On Riders Share, people and businesses list motorcycles for rent. Since launching in 2018, over 15,000 people have shared their motorcycles on Riders Share, creating the largest variety of motorcycles available for rent in the world. People who list their motorcycles for rent have a great return on investment, while people who rent on Riders Share save up to 70% compared to traditional motorcycle rentals. Riders Share finds vetted licensed customers, supplies insurance, roadside assistance and handles payments on behalf of its motorcyclists. To learn more, please visit www.riders-share.com
7/26/2021 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 43 seconds
#332 – Mebisode – Journey to 100X
Episode 332 is a Mebisode. In this episode, you’ll hear Meb talk about his journey investing in over 250 private companies since 2014. He explains why he chose to do so and his framework around sizing, timing, and diversification. Finally, he shares his advice on how to craft a plan if you want to get started yourself.
Click here to read Meb’s piece
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Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Join today and get access to quarterly CAPE ratios, an excel quant backtester and the entire research library.
7/23/2021 • 55 minutes, 10 seconds
#331 – Phil Nadel, Forefront Venture Partners - The Best Companies Are Founded By Folks Who Personally Feel The Pain Point
In episode 331, we welcome back our guest, Phil Nadel, co-founder of Forefront Venture Partners, one of the largest and most successful syndicates on AngelList.
Click here to listen to Phil’s first episode on The Meb Faber Show.
In today’s episode, we start with an update since Phil first appeared on the show more than three years ago. We touch on some of Phil’s portfolio companies, including names you’ve heard from directly on this podcast like Grove Collaborative, Ten Spot, PartySlate and Remoov. After learning about Phil’s role on Gimlet’s podcast “The Pitch,” we hear why he chose to launch a rolling fund and the benefits a rolling fund provides to both founders and investors.
Please enjoy this episode with Forefront Venture Partners’ Phil Nadel.
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Today’s episode is sponsored by NordVPN. NordVPN strives to make the internet better than it is today. It can be free from online threats, censorship, and surveillance. What started with a single VPN server is now one of the most trusted internet security providers in the market, serving over 14 million users worldwide. Visit www.nordvpn.com/meb for 73% off of a 2-year plan plus 4 months free.
7/21/2021 • 57 minutes, 16 seconds
#330 – Guillermo Cornejo, Riders Share - Riders Share Is Like An AirBnB, But For Renting Motorcycles
In episode 330, we welcome our guest, Guillermo Cornejo, founder and CEO of Riders Share, the first & largest motorcycle peer-to-peer rentals platform in the United States.
In today’s episode, we hear why peer to peer rentals for motorcycles works even better than for cars! Guillermo walks us through what it’s been like to build out the marketplace and get both supply and demand. Throughout the entire conversation, he focuses on the importance of risk management, whether it’s through insurance, verifying renters have motorcycle licenses, or avoiding theft of the bikes.
As we wind down, we hear what the future of the company looks like as Guillermo considers expanding to Europe.
Please enjoy this episode with Riders Share’s Guillermo Cornejo.
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Follow Meb on Twitter at @MebFaber
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Today’s episode is sponsored by NordVPN. NordVPN strives to make the internet better than it is today. It can be free from online threats, censorship, and surveillance. What started with a single VPN server is now one of the most trusted internet security providers in the market, serving over 14 million users worldwide. Visit www.nordvpn.com/meb for 73% off of a 2-year plan plus 4 months free.
7/19/2021 • 46 minutes, 30 seconds
#329 – Samantha McLemore, Miller Value Partners - We're In Optimism With Pockets Of Euphoria
In episode 329, we welcome our guest, Samantha McLemore founder of Patient Capital Management and a Co-Portfolio Manager at Miller Value Partners.
In today’s episode, Samantha shares how sending her resume to someone by the name of Bill Miller led to her starting as an analyst under Bill 20 years ago. We hear how the firm defines value and thinks about its edge in the investment process. Then Samantha walks us through some names in her portfolio and the thesis behind them, including ADT, Stitch Fix, GM, and even some SPACs.
As we wind down, we go back in time and have Samantha walk through what was going through her mind as she navigated 2020 and the lessons learned from that experience.
Please enjoy this episode with Patient Capital Management and Miller Value Partners’ Samantha McLemore.
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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Use Promo Code “MEB” to skip their 15,000 person wait list.
7/14/2021 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 32 seconds
#328 – Startup Series – Katie Echevarria Rosen Kitchens, FabFitFun - Paying $50 And Getting Over $300 In Full-Size Products Is A Pretty Cool Thing
In episode 328, we welcome our guest, Katie Echevarria Rosen Kitchens, co-founder of FabFitFun, a lifestyle membership that provides a curated selection of full-size products each season.
As a special offer for listeners of the show, visit fabfitfun.com and use the code “MEB” to get $10 off your first box.
In today’s episode, we hear about one of the most successful startups to come out of L.A.! Katie shares the origin story of how this media company transformed into a subscription service that now has 2 million members. She walks through the process of curating boxes for women of all ages throughout the entire country and what led them to use influencers before influencers were a thing.
As we wind down, we hear what’s in store for the future of the company as they build out an e-commerce offering.
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This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
7/12/2021 • 52 minutes, 29 seconds
#327 – Mario Gabelli, GAMCO Investors - We Have Accumulated Compounded Knowledge of Certain Industries Over An Extended Period Of Time
In episode 327, we welcome our guest, Mario Gabelli, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of GAMCO Investors, the firm he founded in 1977.
In today’s episode, we hear the framework behind one of the best stock pickers over the last 50 years. Mario walks us through what he thinks about when analyzing both industries and companies. He touches on the impact of fiscal and monetary stimulus, labor costs, and supply chains.
Then we walk through some different industries – media, autos, energy, and yes, I even got him to talk about my favorite – farmland and agriculture.
As we wind down, we hear about Mario’s recent focus on PPP – people, profits, planet, and why he chose to launch an actively managed ETF.
Please enjoy this episode with GAMCO Investor’s Mario Gabelli.
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Follow Meb on Twitter at @MebFaber
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Today’s episode is sponsored by NordVPN. NordVPN strives to make the internet better than it is today. It can be free from online threats, censorship, and surveillance. What started with a single VPN server is now one of the most trusted internet security providers in the market, serving over 14 million users worldwide. Known for strong values and well-thought-out features, NordVPN is recognized by influential tech sites and IT security specialists. Visit www.nordvpn.com/meb for a discounted 2-year plan plus a bonus gift.
7/7/2021 • 32 minutes
#326 – Starup Series – Viktor Nebehaj, Freetrade - We Want Everybody To Have Access To Investing
In episode 326, we welcome our guest, Viktor Nebehaj, co-founder of Freetrade, whose mission is to get everyone investing by making it simple and commission-free with a stockbroker you can trust.
As a special offer for listeners of the show, visit freetrade.io/MEB and get a free stock worth 3 - 200 GBP.
In today’s episode, we start with Viktor’s early days at Google. Then hear how he went all-in on a crowdfunding campaign for Freetrade and loved the product so much he joined the company as a co-founder. We dive into the company, which offers commission-free brokerage without payment for order flow or margin lending. Viktor shares how the company makes money, what the appetite for this product has been like in Europe, and what it was like to navigate the craziness of 2021.
As we wind down, we hear about Freetrade’s crowdfunding experience, with seven total rounds raising roughly 60 million dollars.
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This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: www.bitwiseinvestments.com
7/5/2021 • 55 minutes, 42 seconds
Cambria Fund Profile Series – Cambria Shareholder Yield ETFs (SYLD) (FYLD) (EYLD)
In today’s episode of the Cambria Fund Profile Series, Meb discusses Cambria’s shareholder yield ETFs, US focused Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (SYLD), international developed market focused Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF (FYLD), and international emerging market focused Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield ETF (EYLD).
Meb walks through details of what shareholder yield really is, from dividends to buybacks, to explain why it is a more comprehensive measure of yield than dividends alone.
He offers a passage from Warren Buffett’s 1984 letter to shareholders discussing the benefit of buybacks when companies are in good financial position and their shares are trading below intrinsic value. He then covers Cambria’s three funds in more detail, laying out some quantitative metrics of the funds relative to their respective Morningstar categories.
As the episode winds down, Meb walks through the portfolio construction process of the shareholder yield ETFs.
7/2/2021 • 26 minutes, 29 seconds
#325 – Bhu Srinivasan, Author, Americana - Is The Entrepreneur More Important Or Is The Movement And Moment More Important?
In episode 325, we welcome our guest, Bhu Srinivasan, author of AMERICANA: A 400-Year History of American Capitalism and founder and CEO of SCORETRADE, which is developing the fastest and most precise in-game sports prediction experience possible. In today’s episode, we go all the back to the 1400s and hear how venture capital was behind the discovery of America. Bhu talks about some of the most successful entrepreneurs in American history, including Vanderbilt, Carnegie and Rockefeller. We talk about the role the government has played in helping American capitalism thrive, and the history of booms and busts and the role they serve over time. As we wind down, we discuss the future of capitalism in the U.S. and around the globe, and hear about Bhu’s current venture around crypto and sports gambling. ----- Follow Meb on Twitter at @MebFaber ----- This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
6/30/2021 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 8 seconds
#324 – Edward McQuarrie, Santa Clara University - Sometimes Stocks Beat Bonds, Sometimes Bonds Beat Stocks
In episode 324, we welcome our guest, Dr. Edward McQuarrie, Professor Emeritus at Santa Clara University. In today’s episode, we hear why the ‘stocks for the long-run’ thesis may not be so true. Dr. McQuarrie found digital archives and older data that gives a different conclusion than what Professor Jeremy Siegel found. We walk through how stock and bond returns have changed over time and learn that bonds have outperformed stocks for decades in countries like France and Japan. We hear about Dr. McQuarrie’s ‘regime thesis,’ which says the risk/return profile of both stocks and bonds depends on what regime we’re in, both capable of outperforming or underperforming over any time horizon. Please enjoy this episode with Santa Clara University’s Edward McQuarrie. ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: www.bitwiseinvestments.com
6/28/2021 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 44 seconds
#323 – John Montgomery, Bridgeway Capital Management - A Factors-Based World View Resonated With Me
In episode 323, we welcome our guest, John Montgomery, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Bridgeway Capital Management, a $5 billion quantitative manager that donates 50% of its profits to charity.
In today’s episode, we start by hearing what made our John leave a job in the Transit sector to start a quantitative investment firm. We walk through what drew him to a rules-based approach and then touch on different factors, including size, value, and low volatility. We even touch on Bridgeway’s ultra small cap strategy and how it captures the small-cap premium.
As we wind down, we hear about the firm’s unique structure, which includes donating half its profits to charity with the goal of ending genocide.
Please enjoy this episode with Bridgeway Capital Management’s John Montgomery.
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Follow Meb on Twitter at @MebFaber
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Today’s episode is sponsored by Yotta Savings. Yotta Savings is an FDIC-insured savings account with a big twist, saving with Yotta gives you the chance to win $10 million every week. For every 25 dollars deposited into your Yotta Savings account, you’ll receive a recurring ticket into their weekly sweepstakes to win cash prizes ranging from a few cents to $10 million. Open your account to start saving and start winning. Use invite code "MEB" on signup to earn 100 bonus tickets into next week's contest.
6/23/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 43 seconds
#322 – Radio Show – Inflation or Deflation?…Foreign Stocks….Value and Momentum
Episode 322 has a radio show format. We cover a variety of topics, including: - Preparing your portfolio for the possibility of both inflation and deflation - International stocks making a comeback - Value and momentum factors - Listener questions! ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: www.bitwiseinvestments.com
6/21/2021 • 44 minutes, 48 seconds
#321 – Rajiv Jain, GQG Partners - “Everything Is Temporary And The Only Way To Survive Long-Term Is To Be Adaptive”
In episode 321, we welcome our guest, Rajiv Jain, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of GQG Partners, a boutique investment management firm focused on global and emerging markets equities. In today’s episode, we hear how Rajiv is building an asset management firm for the future. We start with Rajiv’s early career as an emerging markets PM and the lessons he learned navigating the Tequila Crisis. Then we dive into his choice to venture out on his own and start a new firm focused on having skin in the game, a diverse team, and a long-term view. We talk about the different investment styles of the firm and how he’s positioned going forward. As we wind down, we take a look around the world and hear Rajiv’s thoughts on emerging markets, Russia, India, and Asia. All this and more in episode 321 with GQG Partner’s Rajiv Jain. ----- This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
6/16/2021 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 47 seconds
#320 – Shonda Warner, Chess Ag Full Harvest Partners - The Interesting Thing About Ag Is That It’s There To Play Another Day
In episode 320, we welcome our guest, Shonda Warner, founder of Chess Ag Full Harvest Partners, an asset management company focused on agricultural investment opportunities. In today’s episode, we begin with Shonda’s early career on the trading desks of Goldman Sachs and Cargill in London and Tokyo. Then she shares what led her to decide she wanted to return to her farming roots and launch an agriculture asset management firm. We cover her areas of expertise, what realistic return expectations are in the space, and the possibility for vertical integration going forward. We even touch on some ag-tech and the need for infrastructure around hemp to help the industry grow. All this and more in episode 320 with Chess Ag Full Harvest Partner’s Shonda Warner. ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: www.bitwiseinvestments.com
6/14/2021 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 49 seconds
#319 – Brandon Zick, Ceres Partners - The Market Is $3 Trillion And Institutional Investors Own About 3% Of That
In episode 319, we welcome our guest, Brandon Zick, Chief Investment Officer of Ceres Partners, a specialist investment manager focused exclusively on food and agriculture. In today’s episode, we’re talking all about farmland. Brandon begins with an update on the asset class, including the impact of both rising commodity prices and COVID. We spend some time on his firms’ investment process and how they evaluate potential deals. Then we walk through lots of factors affecting the space – lack of water, solar and other non-farm value options, and the tax uncertainty with a new administration. As we wind down, we talk about Brandon’s private investing in ag-related businesses and what he’s seeing in that area. Please enjoy this episode with Ceres Partner’s Brandon Zick. ----- This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Use Promo Code “MEB” to skip their 10,000 person wait list.
6/9/2021 • 1 hour, 20 seconds
#318 – Perth Tolle, Life + Liberty Indexes – If I Was In Hong Kong Right Now, I Would Be Arrested, Definitely, For Doing This
In episode 318, we welcome our guest, Perth Tolle, founder of Life + Liberty Indexes. In today’s episode, we’re talking about freedom! Perth shares what led her to focus on the relationship between freedom and investing in emerging markets. We hear the story of how she launched the ETF with the help of former podcast guests Rob Arnott and Wes Gray. She shares the inner workings of her Freedom Index and how it uses personal and economic freedom metrics as factors. As we wind down, Perth explains how it differs from most emerging market funds and what the reaction has been from people all around the glove. All this and more in episode 318 with Life + Liberty Indexes’ Perth Tolle. ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: www.bitwiseinvestments.com
6/7/2021 • 58 minutes, 27 seconds
#317 – Chris Cole, Artemis Capital Management - You Want To Diversify Based On How Assets Perform In Different Market Regimes
In episode 317, we welcome our guest, Chris Cole, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Artemis Capital Management, which aims to transform stock volatility into opportunities for clients. In today’s episode, we cover the optimal portfolio to help you grow and protect your wealth for the next 100 years. Chris shares why recency bias has led investors to be poorly positioned for secular change. We cover the issues with the 60/40 portfolio and then walk through the five asset classes that he believes belong in your portfolio at all times. Then Chris explains how investors should think about diversification, and his new metric to help you do so. And of course, we talk some long volatility! Be sure to check the show notes to see some slides our guest put together for today’s episode. Please enjoy this episode with Artemis Capital Management’s Chris Cole. ----- This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
6/2/2021 • 1 hour, 22 minutes, 20 seconds
#316 – Dianne McKeever, Ides Capital - My Entire Career, I’ve Been A Value Investing Focused Shareholder Activist
In episode 316, we welcome our guest, Dianne McKeever, Co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Ides Capital, which has been cited as the only woman-led activist fund.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all about activist investing. Dianne shares how she went from a Berkshire fan to becoming an activist. She shares the ins and outs of the process, from sourcing names to engaging with management teams. Then we talk about how ESG fits into her activism campaigns.
Of course, we walk through a few names in Dianne’s book and hear the story of her campaign with Boingo.
Please enjoy this episode with Ides Capital’s Dianne McKeever.
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This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: bitwiseinvestments.com
5/31/2021 • 1 hour, 26 minutes, 2 seconds
#315 – Warren Pies & Fernando Vidal, 3Fourteen Research - I Think That The Next 40 Years Are Unlikely To Look Like The Last 40 Years
In episode 315, we welcome our guests, Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal, co-founders of 3Fourteen Research, which combines expert qualitative insights with true quantitative discipline. In today’s episode, we take a data-driven approach to look at the markets. We start with the firm’s original story and why Warren believes real assets have a place in portfolios going forward. Then they walk us through their research process and the benefits of combining machine learning with technicals and fundamentals. Finally, we hear what their models say about inflation, commodities, oil, and Bitcoin. Warren and Fernando were kind enough to put together some of their research for you to refer to during the episode. Click here to see their reports. Please enjoy this episode with 3Fourteen Research’s Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal. ----- This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.
5/26/2021 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 49 seconds
#314 – Dan Morehead, Pantera Capital Management - Satoshi Created Bitcoin As A Result Of The 2008 Global Financial Crisis And It’s Really Coming Into It’s Own Now
In episode 314, we welcome our guest, Dan Morehead, Co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Pantera Capital Management, the first institutional asset manager to invest exclusively in blockchain technology and digital assets. In today’s episode, we’re diving into how this Tiger Cub turned his attention to crypto and blockchain. We start with Dan’s background, spending time in Japan after the bubble burst and later at Tiger Management under legendary Julian Robertson. Then we hear about starting Pantera Capital and shortly after solely focusing on Bitcoin and digital assets. He shares what originally caught his interest in crypto, the different ways to value Bitcoin, how to size it and other digital assets in your portfolio, and what he believes this biggest risks are. Please enjoy this episode with Pantera Capital Management’s Dan Morehead. ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: bitwiseinvestments.com
5/24/2021 • 55 minutes, 19 seconds
#313 – Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates - Modern Monetary Theory Does Not Work
In episode 313, we welcome our guest, Rob Arnott, founder and Chairman of Research Affiliates. In today’s episode, we start with the U.S. stock market and why today’s valuations meet Rob’s definition of a bubble. Rob debunks commonly discussed reasons for why stock valuations should be so high and explains why he doesn’t agree with MMT. Then we touch on value stocks and Rob’s recent piece on the lofty valuations for electric vehicles stocks. As we wind down, hear why Rob is bullish on emerging markets value, and what his new trade of the decade is – UK value stocks. Please enjoy this episode with Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott.
5/19/2021 • 49 minutes, 50 seconds
#312 – Carter Malloy, AcreTrader - In A Couple Of Minutes, You Can Invest As Little As $15,000 Or $20,000 In A Particular Farm
In episode 312, we welcome our guest, Carter Malloy, founder and CEO of AcreTrader, a farmland real estate investment company offering low minimum, passive farm investments. In today’s episode, we’re talking all about farmland, an asset that’s historically been hard for investors to access, but Carter and AcreTrader are changing that. We start by hearing how COVID increased interest in farmland from both institutions and private equity firms. Then Carter walks through the process of purchasing farmland through AcreTrader, with Meb’s recent purchase of an organic farm in Nebraska as an example. We hear about the process for you to purchase farmland through AcreTrader, the due diligence process for each investment, and their process for deciding which farm is an attractive opportunity. All this and more in episode 312 with AcreTrader’s Carter Malloy. ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: www.bitwiseinvestments.com
5/17/2021 • 53 minutes, 25 seconds
#311 – Radio Show – Valuation Update…Bond Returns….Meb’s Startup Investing
Episode 311 has a radio show format. We cover a variety of topics, including: · The importance of having an investment plan · Valuations update · How Meb approaches startup investing · Listener questions! There’s this and plenty more in episode 311.
5/14/2021 • 51 minutes, 30 seconds
#310 – Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex - When You’re A Systematic Investor, Your Process Makes The Decision
In episode 310, we welcome our guest, Kathryn Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex, where she’s also the co-portfolio manager for the firm’s Managed Futures Strategy. In today’s episode, we’re talking all about trend following and managed futures. You may have heard the phrase “crisis alpha” before, and Kathryn is the person who coined that phrase. We start with hearing what it was like for her to study at MIT under the legendary Andrew Lo. Then she explains why trend following works during a crisis and uses last year as an example. As we wind down, Kathryn explains some misconceptions about trend following and talks about why it’s so important to have a process driven investment approach. All this and more in episode 310 with AlphaSimplex’s Kathryn Kaminski. --- This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Use Promo Code “MEB” to skip their 15,000 person wait list.
5/12/2021 • 58 minutes, 7 seconds
#309 – Andrew Horowitz, Horowitz & Company - I Think We’re Starting To See A Little Bit Of What Happens When The Tide Goes Out
In episode 309, we welcome our guest Andrew Horowitz, President and Founder of Horowitz & Company and host of The Disciplined Investor Podcast. In today’s episode, we start with Andrew’s investment framework. We talk about the tradeoff between active management and ETF’s with both stocks and bonds. Then we discuss the impact of fund flows on stocks and hear what Andrew thinks about current valuations. As we wind down, we talk about the importance of helping clients have a long-term investment horizon. Please enjoy this episode with Horowitz & Company’s Andrew Horowitz. ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: bitwiseinvestments.com
5/10/2021 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 5 seconds
#308 – Best Idea Show – Maciej Wojtal, Amtelon Capital – I Saw Iran As Potentially The Biggest Transformational Opportunity Since Russia
In episode 308, we welcome our guest, Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, an investment fund focused on Iranian equities. In today's episode, we're covering Maciej’s best idea: Iranian equities.
In today’s episode, we start by hearing how the 2015 nuclear deal between the US and Iran sparked Maciej’s interest in Iran. He shares what he learned early on – the country has a resilient economy with great demographics – and when paired with companies trading at 3-4x earnings, he was compelled to set up his firm in 2018. Maciej walks us through what it’s been like over the last few years: handling new sanctions under the Trump administration, 70% currency depreciation one year, and, most recently, the impact of COVID.
As we wind down, he shares the possibilities for the country going forward and the potential for foreign inflows to drive valuations up in the near future.
Please enjoy this special “Best Ideas” episode with Amtelon Capital’s Maciej Wojtal.
5/5/2021 • 59 minutes, 24 seconds
#307 – Vikram Mansharamani, Harvard Lecturer and Author - In All Bubbles, You Usually Have A ‘This Time It’s Different’ Story
In episode 307, we welcome our guest, Vikram Mansharamani, a Harvard lecturer, author, and global trend spotter who shows people how to anticipate the future, manage risk, and spot opportunities. In today’s episode, we’re talking all about financial bubbles. Vikram wrote the book BOOMBUSTOLOGY: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst, which uses multiple lenses to spot financial bubbles. Today, he shares that framework with us and relates it to today’s market. He explains why skyscrapers and stadiums help predict where there is excess in the market. Then we talk about the Internet bubble, housing bubble, and what he sees today with the rise of SPACs, student sentiment, and monetary and fiscal policy. We also cover a number of other topics, including why it’s important to think for yourself, why he’s bearish on India, and even some UFO’s. All this and more in episode 307 with Harvard’s Vikram Mansharamani. ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: www.bitwiseinvestments.com
5/3/2021 • 1 hour, 36 seconds
#306 – Jeff Seder, EQB - We Ended Up The First Triple-Crown Winner in 37 Years
In episode 306, we welcome our guest, Jeff Seder, founder of EQB, a high-tech sports medicine startup that consults with the majority of the major thoroughbred racehorse racing stables. In today’s episode, we hear the best moneyball story you’ve never heard. With the Kentucky Derby this weekend, there’s no one better to listen to than Jeff, who’s disrupted the horse racing industry with his quantitative approach. He walks us through all he’s gone through to gather data over the last 30 years and why the industry has been resistant to data even to this day. Then he explains why studying the size of one ventricle in a horse’s heart led him to believe the it had the potential for greatness, leading him to tell his boss, “Sell your house, don’t sell this horse.” Not a bad call since that horse, American Pharoah, went on to become the first Triple-Crown winner in 37 years! As we wind down, we hear what Jeff thinks about this weekend’s Kentucky Derby and his advice if you’re thinking of betting on the race. All this and more in episode 306 with EQB’s Jeff Seder. ---------- This episode is sponsored by URNM: The NORTH SHORE GLOBAL URANIUM MINING ETF is made up of a basket of companies that are involved in the mining, exploration, development and production of uranium as well as companies that hold physical uranium, uranium royalties or other non-mining assets. To learn more go to www.urnmetf.com
4/28/2021 • 52 minutes, 10 seconds
#305 – Marc Faber, The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report – The Environment We’re In Favors Quick Profits And Long-Term Loss
In episode 305, we welcome our guest, Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, which highlights unusual investment opportunities around the world. In today’s episode, we begin with Marc’s thoughts on why governments mishandled the COVID response in the last year, and what he expects the long-term effects from both the monetary and fiscal responses will be going forward. Then he shares his thoughts on why he thinks more and more of the younger generations favor socialism. We touch on the financial speculation in the markets, particularly with Robinhood options trading. As we wind down, we hear where Marc thinks you can put some money to work. He shares his thoughts on gold, Asian equities, energy and financials. All this and more in episode 305 with The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’s Marc Faber. ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: bitwiseinvestments.com
4/26/2021 • 58 minutes, 56 seconds
#304 – Damon Ficklin, Polen Capital – Even Though We Are Clearly A Growth Manager, A Lot Of Us Have Value-Oriented Roots
In episode 304, we welcome our guest, Damon Ficklin, Polen Capital’s head of the Large Company Growth Team and the lead portfolio manager of the firm’s Global Growth strategy. In today’s episode, we’re talking high quality, concentrated growth investing. Damon starts by describing his process for analyzing companies and the key metrics they look for when doing so. Then he covers the paradigm shift we’ve seen in the last year and how companies have adapted to the new norm. We talk about companies that have navigated the shift to e-commerce like Estee Lauder, and others that have transformed their business model like Adobe. Be sure to listen until the end to hear why one of Damon’s most memorable investments is Invisalign, a stock that has soared in the past year. All this and more in episode 304 with Polen Capital’s Damon Ficklin.
4/21/2021 • 59 minutes, 10 seconds
#303 – Kevin Lozer, Holistiplan – Streamline And Scale The Tax Planning Process For Advisors
In episode 303, we welcome our guest, Kevin Lozer, co-founder of Holistiplan, a tax planning software for financial advisors. In today’s episode, we’re talking about how advisors can utilize technology to help with tax planning, something that’s historically been a very manual process. Kevin shares how creating software to help with tax planning for his own clients then turned into a standalone business. He walks us through the process of using the software and how it not only saves the advisor time but also helps find potential planning opportunities. He also explains how advisors have been utilizing the tools to help with business development. As we wind down, Kevin shares why the software complements instead of competes against CPA’s. All this and more in episode 303 with Holistiplan’s Kevin Lozer. ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: www.bitwiseinvestments.com
4/19/2021 • 46 minutes, 58 seconds
#302 – Lisa Rich, Hemisphere Ventures, Xplore – There’s Never Been A More Exciting Time For The Space Industry
In episode 302, we welcome back our guest, Lisa Rich, managing partner of Hemisphere Ventures and founder and COO of Xplore. In today’s episode, we’re chatting about the space sector, which has been absolutely on fire. Lisa updates us on what’s happened in the space sector since we last spoke. She covers the impact of both SPAC’s and Ark Invest’s new space ETF on the sector. Then she shares updates on some of her prior investments, including Axiom Space and their quest to build the first commercial space station. As we wind down, Lisa shares what’s going on with Xplore and the development of their spacecraft, the Xcraft. All this and more in episode 302 with Hemisphere Ventures and Xplore’s Lisa Rich. --- This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Use Promo Code “MEB” to skip their 15,000 person wait list.
4/14/2021 • 45 minutes, 36 seconds
#301 – Dr. Daniel Crosby, Orion Advisor Solutions – You Want The Best Anxiety Adjusted Returns
In episode 301, we welcome our guest, Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion Advisor Solutions, where he helps organizations understand the intersection of psychology and the market. In today’s episode, we start by hearing what the 2020 bear market and pandemic looked like from a clinical psychologist’s perspective. Daniel touches on behavioral coaching and why that’s the primary value-add a financial advisor can provide. Then we move onto topics that aren’t discussed much: mental health, social isolation, and depression. He explains why it’s helpful for advisors to have their own therapist to help them handle the day-to-day stresses of the job, and how the increased social isolation over the last year translates to what we’ve seen recently with Reddit, Robinhood and NFT’s. As we wind down, we discuss the potential for technology to help us become better investors and how some fintech firms are using technology and nudges to encourage bad behaviors. All this and more in episode 301 with Orion Advisor Solutions’ Dr. Daniel Crosby. ----- This episode is sponsored by Bitwise. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is the world’s largest crypto index fund. It holds a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets, including bitcoin, ethereum, and DeFi assets. Shares of the fund trade under the ticker "BITW" and are accessible through traditional brokerage accounts. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV). For more information: www.bitwiseinvestments.com
4/12/2021 • 1 hour, 10 seconds
#300 – Best Idea Show – Geoffrey Batt, Euphrates Advisors – You Get Used To The Terrorism Problem And You Just Start To Focus On The Companies
In episode 300, we welcome our guest, Geoffrey Batt, managing partner and founder of the Euphrates Advisors, where he invests in Iraqi equities. In today's episode, we're covering Geoffrey's best idea: investing in the Iraqi stock market.
Geoffrey begins by telling us how learning about Daniel Cloud’s post-Soviet Union Russia fund led him to look around the world to find somewhere he could earn huge returns, which led him to Iraq. He gives us an overview of the market and economy and how it’s rebounded since Saddam Hussein died. Then he walks us through everything he’s had to deal with since he first invested there in 2010 – political instability, a 20% currency devaluation, negative oil prices, and an Iraqi stock market that closed in response to COVID. We talk about the tailwinds for Iraq, including the growth of the banking sector and ESG, which Geoffrey believes is bullish for oil.
Be sure you stick around until the end to hear about Geoffrey’s first trip to Iraq, when he was driving to visit with a company and was forced to turn around because of a car bomb.
Please enjoy this special “Best Ideas” episode with Euphrates Advisors’ Geoffrey Batt.
4/7/2021 • 1 hour, 28 minutes, 3 seconds
#299 – Sundeep Ahuja, Climate Capital - Earth Is A Big Ship And It’s Going To Take A While For Us To Turn This Ship Around
In episode 299, we welcome our guest, Sundeep Ahuja, a three-time founder-turned-investor, who's currently a General Partner at Duro Ventures, Climate Capital, and DVC. In today’s episode, we start by hearing about Sundeep’s entrepreneurial journey, then dipping his toe in angel investing by making his first investment into Goodreads. Then he shares the differences of using Angel List syndicates and rolling funds, and the benefits of each. We touch on why Sundeep decided to devote his investment career to help solve climate change. He explains what areas currently look attractive, why he places a lot of emphasis on the founder when making an investment decision, and how he thinks about valuations. As we wind down, we talk about specific companies he’s invested in, from food delivery to gaming companies. All this and more in episode 299 with Climate Capital’s Sundeep Ahuja.
4/5/2021 • 46 minutes, 22 seconds
#298 – Boris Wertz, Version One - I Really Think About The Next Decade As A Golden Decade For Technology
In episode 298, we welcome our guest, Boris Wertz, the founding partner of Version One, an early-stage venture capital firm focused on backing mission-driven founders. In today’s episode, we’re talking all things marketplaces. Boris’ knowledge of marketplaces is unrivaled. He started one of the first marketplaces in the late 1990’s and recently released the third edition of A Guide to Marketplaces, a must-read for anyone interested in the business model. We start by going all the way back to the early days of eBay and then talk about how marketplaces have evolved over time, most recently with crypto and the blockchain. Then we dive into one of the hot topics of 2021: non-fungible tokens (NFT’s). Boris shares some broad thoughts on NFT’s and touches on one of his portfolio companies, Dapper Labs, which is behind NBA Top-Shot. All this and more in episode 298 with Version One’s Boris Wertz.
3/31/2021 • 45 minutes, 43 seconds
#297 – Tim Ranzetta, Next Gen Personal Finance - Every Student Wants To Learn About Money
In episode 297, we welcome our guest, Tim Ranzetta, co-founder of Next Gen Personal Finance, a non-profit organization working to increase access to financial education by providing its curriculum and professional development at no cost to schools. In today’s episode, we start the episode with the current state of K-12 personal finance education in the U.S. Then we hear how teaching a personal finance class in a school inspired Tim to start Next Gen Personal Finance in 2014. He shares the curriculum they provide to teachers for free, why the 43,000 teachers that are registered on the Next Gen platform are the champions to get personal finance mandated in schools across America, and how he utilizes arcade games to engage kids ranging from K-12. As we wind down, we hear about what Tim calls Mission 2030, which is to get every student who graduates high school to complete a one-semester personal finance course. All this and more in episode 297 with Next Gen Personal Finance’s Tim Ranzetta.
3/29/2021 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 13 seconds
#296 - Jason Hsu, Rayliant Global Advisors - As Investors, We’re Always Looking For Uncorrelated Sources Of Return
In episode 296, we welcome our guest, Jason Hsu, founder and chairman of Rayliant Global Advisors. In today’s episode, we get an update from Jason on the Chinese stock market and hear how it differs from the U.S. Then we talk about his new ETF, which gives investors a way to allocate to China A-Shares. He explains why the A-Shares are a great place to seek outperformance due to the large amount of retail involvement. Jason then addresses some of the most commonly cited risks for investing in the Chinese stock market, including accounting issues and the presence of so many state-owned-enterprises. As we wind down, Jason gives his take on the recent developments with Ant Financial and Jack Ma. All this and more in episode 296 with Rayliant Global Advisor’s Jason Hsu.
3/24/2021 • 52 minutes, 1 second
#295 – Jacob Rubin, Philosophy Capital Management – I’ve Learned In This Business, You Want To Be Successful And Justify Charging A Fee, You Swing The Bat
In episode 295, we welcome our guest, Jacob Rubin, founder and Managing Member at Philosophy Capital Management, which focuses on value and distressed credit. In today’s episode, we start by discussing Jacob’s windy road to end up where he is today, including a stint under Jerome Simon at Lonestar Capital Management. Then we dive into his investment philosophy, which can be described as old school value in a new school world. He shares how he uses pattern recognition to his advantage, how credit and equity investing help one another, and the thesis for some of his top holdings. As we wind down, Jacob explains how he thinks about the short-side of the portfolio and tells the story of why watching a TikTok video led him to immediately cover a short. All this and more in episode 295 with Philosophy Capital Management’s Jacob Rubin.
3/22/2021 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 56 seconds
#294 – Dan Rasmussen, Verdad Advisers - A Lot Of These Regime Changes Happen Around Recessions And Crises
In episode 294, we welcome our guest, Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers, a global investment firm that provides a public market alternative to private equity. In today’s episode, we start with an update on Dan’s private equity replication thesis and hear about the rise of private credit in the past few years. Then we dive into his recent paper on emerging markets crisis investing. While buy and hold investors in emerging markets have experienced higher volatility for disappointing returns, Dan believes learning to navigate these EM crises can provide the ability to reap excess returns. He walks us through the differences between global and idiosyncratic crises and what performs best between both debt and equity in each case. All this and more in episode 294 with Verdad Advisers’ Dan Rasmussen.
3/17/2021 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 46 seconds
#293 – Ted Seides, Capital Allocators – I Want To Compound My Capital…But I Want To Do It Alongside Of People That I Respect And Trust
In episode 293, we welcome our guest, Ted Seides, host of the Capital Allocators podcast and author of Capital Allocators: How the world's elite money managers lead and invest. In today’s episode, we go all the way back to Ted’s early days working under the great David Swensen at Yale to hear what makes him one of the most respected Chief Investment Officer’s in the world. Then we move on to his famous bet with Warren Buffett and hear how the real winner of the bet was the collateral set aside for the duration of the bet. After touching on what the Chief Investment Officer job entails and sharing the insights he’s learned from speaking with some of the top managers in the world, Ted shares how he invests his own money. We talk about Bill Ackman’s fund, SPACs, and even some crypto. All this and more in episode 293 with Ted Seides.
3/10/2021 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 51 seconds
#292 – Tom Barton, White Rock Capital – I Just Thought, Well, This Is The Dumbest Short Of All-Time
In episode 292, we welcome our guest, Tom Barton, famed-short seller and founder and President of White Rock Capital. In today’s episode, we start with taking a look back at one of Tom’s tweets from September, which said that GameStop was a misunderstood short, and hear why he thought so back then. We also touch on the differences between shorting based on valuation versus because the company is a fraud. Then we turn to what he mostly focuses on these days: biotech and gene-therapy companies. We hear about his brutal two-year experience as an activist and what he learned from the experience. As we wind down, Tom walks us through some companies he likes in the biotech space, and even shares a SPAC that looks attractive to him at the moment. Please enjoy this episode with the White Rock Capital’s Tom Barton.
3/8/2021 • 1 hour, 37 minutes, 15 seconds
#291 – Ron Lieber, The New York Times - If You Look At Private Colleges And Universities, On Average, They’re Discounting Their Tuitions by 52%
In episode 291, we welcome our guest, Ron Lieber, the Your Money columnist for The New York author of the book, The Price You Pay for College. In today’s episode, we’re talking about what Ron describes as the biggest financial decision your family will ever make: paying for your child’s college tuition. We begin with some background as to how the sticker price of college has soared over the past few decades. Then Ron explains what merit aid is, how it can save you tens of thousands of dollars, and how schools are using it to compete with other schools for prospective students. Ron walks us through some of the best ways to start preparing for this big expense and why he believes you should talk to your son or daughter before they enter high school about all the factors impacting this important financial decision. As we wind down, Ron explains what policy suggestions he’d love to see implemented to help fix the student debt crisis. All this and more in episode 291 with The New York Times’ Ron Lieber.
3/3/2021 • 45 minutes, 29 seconds
#290 – Bill Smead, Smead Capital Management - There’s Less Respect For Stock Picking Experts Right At This Moment Than There Has Been Since The Peak Of The Dot-Com Bubble
In episode 290, we welcome our guest, Bill Smead, the Chief Investment Officer for Smead Capital Management. In today’s episode, Bill explains why he believes the market is undergoing a tide change. He starts with a look back on the 2000 tech bubble and uses Cisco as an example of why it’s important to separate a good business from a good stock. After talking about parts of the market he doesn’t like, we move on to the parts he finds attractive, including home-builders, energy, suburban mall REITs, and financials. As we wind down, Bill touches on the antitrust case for big tech and what the investment implications may be. Please enjoy this episode with Smead Capital Management’s Bill Smead.
2/24/2021 • 50 minutes, 45 seconds
#289: Stocks Are Allowed To Be Expensive Since Bonds Yields Are Low…Right?
Episode 289 is a Mebisode. In this episode, you’ll hear Meb put today's stock valuations into historical perspective. He addresses the claim that stock valuations should be high because bond yields are low and then looks at what conditions were present at the start of the best ten-year stock returns in history. Finally, he provides some thoughts on what investors could do to handle the current market environment.
All of this and more in episode 289.
2/22/2021 • 22 minutes, 51 seconds
#288 - Best Idea Show - Doug Pugliese, Alpha Architect - Why Not Elect A 1042 Sale And Control When You Pay Those Taxes?
In episode 288, we welcome our guest, Doug Pugliese, the Head of 1042 QRP Solutions at Alpha Architect, where he manages the firm’s qualified replacement property investment strategies practice. In today’s episode, we’re covering Doug’s best idea: employee stock ownership plans.
ESOP’s are a niche but incredibly attractive way for a business owner to sell their business for both themselves and the long-term viability of the company. The episode starts with a broad overview and then dives into the inner workings of an ESOP sale. Doug explains how the tax benefits of a 1042 election allow the owner to defer capital gains tax and even invest the proceeds into a portfolio of blue chip stocks.
As the conversation winds down, Doug shares why ESOP’s may be an ideal way for middle market private equity companies to exit investments.
Please enjoy this special “Best Ideas” episode with Alpha Architect’s Doug Pugliese.
2/17/2021 • 55 minutes, 31 seconds
#287 – Jonathan Hsu, Tribe Capital - Our Specific Areas Of Expertise Are Around Being Able To Tell A Story Utilizing Your Own Data
In episode 287, we welcome our guest, Jonathan Hsu, the co-founder and General Partner at Tribe Capital, a venture capital firm focused on using product and data science to engineer N-of-1 companies and investments.
In today’s episode we're talking about using a quantitative approach to venture capital investing in a way that hasn’t been done before. Jonathan us through his background, with stops at Facebook and Social Capital. Then we hear how Tribe Capital leverages their data science capabilities to assess the product-market fit of companies to invest from the seed stage to late stage. Jonathan explains how this process led him to invest in both Slack and Carta.
As we wind down, we learn about the firm’s co-invest vehicles, which allow others to access their deal flow.
All this and more in episode 287 with Tribe Capital’s Jonathan Hsu.
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Use Promo Code “MEB” to skip their 15,000 person wait list.
2/10/2021 • 58 minutes, 39 seconds
#286 – Jeremy Grantham, GMO - What Day Is The Highest Level Of Optimism? It’s The Day The Market Hits The Peak
In episode 286, we welcome our guest, Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist of GMO.
In today’s episode, Jeremy begins by talking about the current market, which he believes will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history. He puts this bubble into historical perspective by comparing it to the Japanese, technology and housing bubbles. Then he addresses the commonly cited argument that low interest rates justify high stock valuations. Next, Jeremy explains why he is so bullish on venture capital and has allocated almost 60% of his foundation to the asset class, making it, as he says, one of the most aggressive portfolios in the philanthropic world.
As we wind down, Jeremy explains why he is so passionate about addressing climate change through his foundation, and why China is ahead of the U.S. to address the issue.
Please enjoy this episode with GMO’s Jeremy Grantham.
2/8/2021 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 48 seconds
#285 – Best Idea Show - David Marcus, Evermore Global Advisors - Do You Sell Things That You Like To Buy Things That You Now Love?
In episode 285, we welcome our guest David Marcus, the co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Evermore Global Advisors, where he manages the Evermore Global Value Fund. In today’s episode, we’re talking about David’s best idea: special situations in Europe.
David’s been investing in Europe for almost his entire career and thinks now is the best opportunity for special situations he has ever seen. First, he explains what it was like for him to watch legendary investor Michael Price navigate the 1987 crash. Then David explains what led him to start Evermore Global and the firm’s investment philosophy. He touches on the different types of special situations he focuses on, including spinoffs, restructurings, and breakups, and why activism, catalysts, and cheaper valuations make Europe especially attractive.
As the conversation winds down, David talks about some of his current holdings and the benefits of investing in family-owned businesses.
Please enjoy this special “Best Ideas” episode with Evermore Global Advisor’s David Marcus.
2/3/2021 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 44 seconds
#284 – Michael Gayed, Toroso Investments - I Don’t Know The Exact Mile Marker I Might Crash My Car, But I Do Know The Conditions That Favor The Accident
In episode 284, we welcome our guest, Michael Gayed, a Portfolio Manager at Toroso Investments, where he runs two tactical, risk-on, risk-off strategies. He’s also the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report.
In today’s episode we’re talking about how to use indicators to decide when to go risk-on, risk-off. Michael explains how he came to focus on risk management early in his career and has kept that mentality since. He walks us through how he uses the utilities sector as an indicator for when volatility is going to spike, which worked well in 2020, helping him return over 70% in his ATAC fund. Then he takes us through his award winning paper on lumber and gold, two seemingly uncorrelated commodities that actually work well together to serve as a strong indicator for inflationary or deflationary conditions.
As we wind down, he explains how often he assesses these signals and what they are showing as we start 2021.
Please enjoy this episode with Toroso Investment’s Michael Gayed.
2/1/2021 • 59 minutes, 54 seconds
#283 – Brian Barish, Cambiar Investors- In The Digital Age We’re De-Physicalizing Things
In episode 283, we welcome our guest, Brian Barish, the President and Chief Investment Officer at Cambiar Investors, a relative value firm focusing on out-of-favor companies with strong fundamentals.
In today’s episode we’re talking all about value investing. Brian explains his evolution as a value investor with a comparison to the evolution of the NBA. He covers the two tenets he uses, taking an underwriting approach to evaluating a company and assessing the capital discipline over time. Then we hear about a couple of names in his portfolio and what he expects the recovery to look like in 2021.
As we wind down, we take a look around the globe to hear where he sees value and hear what he thinks about the possibility of negative interest rates.
Please enjoy this episode with Cambiar Investor's Brian Barish.
1/27/2021 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 31 seconds
#282 – Salem Abraham, Abraham Trading Company - Managing Risk Starts With Imagining the Unimaginable
In episode 282, we welcome our guest, Salem Abraham, President of Abraham Trading Company and a legend within the trend following and managed futures space.
In today’s episode we're talking with Salem about a lifetime of trend-following. Salem explains how a chance meeting with Turtle Trader Jerry Parker was his first encounter with ideas he would build his career on. We talk about the importance of risk management and diversification by utilizing assets other than equities. Then he explains how his relationship with the late Boone Pickens led to a foundation that had such good returns that he opened it up to the public and runs to this day. We touch on asset classes ranging from the dollar, bitcoin, farmland, and even trailer parks.
As we wind down, we hear how hedge he put on in February turned $200,000 into $6 million in 37 days, returning 30x his money.
All this and more with Abraham Trading Company’s Salem Abraham.
1/25/2021 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 10 seconds
#281 – Adrian Helfert, Westwood Group - We’re Fundamental Investors And Multiasset Investors That Can Look Across The Capital Spectrum
In episode 281, we welcome our guest, Adrian Helfert, Director of Multi-Asset Portfolios for Westwood Group, where he leads Westwood’s multi-asset strategies group, which includes Westwood’s Income Opportunity and Flexible Income strategies, as well as Westwood’s Global Convertibles and Fixed Income strategies.
In today’s episode, we’re taking a look at all asset classes. Adrian explains what he seeing in the world, from fixed income to equities and TIPS. We talk about how to earn income in a low interest rate environment through MLP’s and REIT’s, and why TIPS are an attractive insurance policy against high inflation. Then Adrian guest explains his view of the energy sector, gold miners, and the impact of low rates on growth stocks.
As we start to wind down, we talk about Westwood’s unique approach to fees.
Please enjoy this episode with Westwood Group's Adrian Helfert.
1/20/2021 • 49 minutes, 6 seconds
#280 – Matthew O’Connor, AdQuick - People Use The Term Disrupt All The Time…And I Like To Think We Can Kind Of Help Erupt The Industry
In episode 280, we welcome our guest, Matthew O’Connor, co-founder of AdQuick, the first true marketplace for out-of-home advertising, providing end-to-end tools to improve the out of home buying experience for media owners, brands, and agencies.
In today’s episode we’re talking about part of the advertising industry that often isn’t talked about: out-of-home. Matthew walks us through his background, with stops at Instacart and Amazon, and explains why the struggle to advertise on billboards while at Instacart gave him the idea for AdQuick. Then he explains the early days of the company, which included building out both sides of the platform while trying to entice investors and top talent to join AdQuick. We hear how the company is providing data to advertisers in a way that hasn’t been done before and why direct-to-consumer brands are embracing billboard advertising.
As the conversation winds down, Matthew tells us the story of Reddit co-founder & AdQuick investor Alexis Ohanian, who used the platform to do a huge campaign for his wife, Serena Williams, when she was going back to her first tennis match after a break from the sport.
Please enjoy this episode with AdQuick’s Matthew O’Connor.
1/18/2021 • 55 minutes, 46 seconds
#279 – Kevin Davitt, John Hiatt, Cboe - Relative To The Overall Portfolio, Small Allocations To Tail Risk Ideas Can Have An Outsized Impact
In episode 279, we welcome our guests, Kevin Davitt and John Hiatt, both of whom work for the Cboe as the Senior Options Institute Instructor and VP of Derivatives Strategy, respectively.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about options, the VIX, and tail risk strategies. 2020 saw elevated volatility and record levels of option volume, and Kevin and John give us their perspective on this activity. We start with some basics of the VIX, how investors use and misuse it, and what the VIX says about the market over time. Then we get into tail risk strategies. We cover how investors should implement them, how to evaluate their success, and how these strategies can have an outsized impact on your portfolio.
As we wind down, Kevin and John discuss ways to implement these types of strategies in a portfolio and best practices to communicate these strategies with your clients.
Please enjoy this episode with Cboe’s Kevin Davitt and John Hiatt.
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Use Promo Code “MEB” to skip their 15,000 person wait list.
1/13/2021 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 15 seconds
#278 – Lucas White, GMO - Since Inception Of The Strategy…We’ve Been Buying Companies At A Significant Discount, Yet Our Portfolio Has Had Earnings Growth That Far Exceeded The Broad Equity Market
In episode 278, we welcome our guest, Lucas White, a portfolio manager for the Resources and Climate Change Strategies at GMO.
In today’s episode we're talking all about resources and climate change as an investment strategy. Lucas sets the stage with why he believes the resource sector offers a huge opportunity and currently trades at an 80% discount to the broad equity market. Then we dive into GMO’s climate change strategy. Lucas explains what led them to focus on climate change and clean energy and officially launch a strategy in 2017. We talk about the allocation to different areas, including copper, food and water.
As we wind down, Lucas explains how a traditional value shop like GMO applies their value lens to this growth area.
Please enjoy this episode with GMOs’, Lucas White.
1/12/2021 • 58 minutes, 22 seconds
#277: Top Podcasts 2020 – Replay: Rick Rule, Joe Davis, Tom Basso
Episode 277 is a replay of The Meb Faber Show’s top podcasts of 2020. Guests include Rick Rule, Joe Davis, and Tom Basso
Hear Rick Rule discuss the forces he sees influencing gold and precious metal prices, give his take on commodities and natural resources, and provide practical thoughts on portfolio implementation.
Next, listen to Joe Davis talk about the Vanguard Capital Markets Model, Vanguard's outlook for U.S. and foreign equities, and a fresh way of thinking about the evolution of knowledge and innovation called the "Idea Multiplier."
Finally, hear long time trader and trend follower Tom Bass talk about his career, power laws and outliers, and why position sizing is so critical.
All this and more in our replay of the top podcasts of 2020.
1/6/2021 • 3 hours, 20 minutes, 39 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Selected Writing from Prominent Investors and Authors
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 3, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 4 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Contributors: Anil Rao and Raman Subramanian, Vineer Bhansali, Rob Arnott, Alec Lucas, Martin Tarlie, and Tyler from Portfolio Charts
1/4/2021 • 1 hour, 59 minutes, 29 seconds
#276 – Craig Wichner, Farmland LP - There’s $2.7T Worth Of Farmland In The U.S…And That’s The Same Economic Value As All The Apartment Buildings In The U.S Or All The Office Buildings In The U.S.
In episode 276, we welcome our guest, Craig Wichner, Founder of Farmland LP, a leading investment fund that generates returns by converting conventional commercial farmland to sustainable farmland.
In today’s episode we learn the ins-and-outs of farmland as an asset class. Farmland has been an asset that’s been inaccessible for most people and Craig is trying to change that. We learn what piqued his interest in farmland and get an overview of the company, which now manages over 15,000 acres and $175 million in assets. He walks us through how the company manages the farms they acquire, focusing on both capital appreciation and increasing profits over time. We even talk about why owning an organic farm can serve as a hedge against a weaker dollar.
As we start to wind down, Craig offers suggestions to policy makers on how to encourage inexpensive and environmentally friendly practices for farmers.
All this and more with Farmland LP’s Craig Wichner!
12/30/2020 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 58 seconds
#275 - David Lau, DPL Financial Partners - The Root Of All Evil When It Comes To Annuities Are Commissions
In episode 275, we welcome our guest, David Lau, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DPL Financial Partners, a firm focused on the distribution of financial products geared toward the Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and fee-based advisory channels.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all about annuities. Annuities are often thought of as being too expensive and a bad product for clients, but David explains how his firm is changing that by removing the commission, which lowers the cost by 80%. We get into the benefit of annuities, which offer tax deferred accumulation and income generation, while also taking risk management into account. David explains how RIA’s are using annuities for clients and why they make sense in a world with rates so low around the globe.
As we start to wind down, we hear about the future plans for the firm, which include building out their suite of offerings and eventually offering a direct-to-consumer product.
Please enjoy this episode with DPL Financial Partners’ David Lau.
12/28/2020 • 55 minutes, 37 seconds
#274 – Mitch Baruchowitz, Merida Capital Holdings - Is The Trade Over? No…It’s Just Getting Going In Some Ways
In episode 274, we welcome our guest, Mitch Baruchowitz, a Managing Partner at Merida Capital Holdings, a private equity firm targeting fundamental growth drivers underpinning the rapid development of the cannabis industry.
In today’s episode we’re talking about investing in the cannabis space. We hear what piqued Mitch’s interest in the cannabis space and what the process was like to get a cannabis license in Connecticut and build and operate a 65,000 square foot facility. Mitch explains what led him to start Merida Capital and how he knocked it out of the park with his investment in the unicorn GrowGen. We chat about what types of investments he looks to make and what the impact of COVID and 2020 elections have had on the space.
As we wind down, Mitch shares why he launched a SPAC in 2019 before the craze began and what that process was like.
Please enjoy this episode with Merida Capital Holdings’, Mitch Baruchowitz.
12/23/2020 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 44 seconds
#273 - Adam Moelis, Yotta Savings - Almost Half Of American’s Can’t Come Up With $400 In An Emergency And 78% Of People Live Paycheck To Paycheck
In episode 273, we welcome our guest, Adam Moelis, co-founder and CEO of Yotta Savings, which allows users to save money, earn over 2x the national average in interest and get weekly chances to win additional prizes up to $10 million through weekly random number drawings
In today’s episode, we’re talking about how to use behavioral psychology to encourage American’s to save. We start with a somber look at the average American’s financial picture. Then Adam explains the history of lottery or prize-linked savings accounts and why the idea was mostly banned in the U.S. until 2015. He discusses the experience of going through Y Combinator’s first remote batch and then explains the lottery program, which offers users a chance to win between ten cents and ten million dollars.
As we wind down, we hear about the company’s’ experimentation with customer acquisition with influencers and why they’ve focused on the social aspect of the app.
Please enjoy this episode with Yotta Savings’, Adam Moelis.
12/21/2020 • 38 minutes, 34 seconds
#272 - Best Idea Show - Tobias Carlisle, Acquirers Fund - There Are Basically Three Big Periods Of Value Underperformance And They Seem To Congregate Around These Periods Of Technological Advancement
In episode 272, we welcome our guest, Tobias Carlisle, founder and managing director of Acquirers Funds, where he serves as the portfolio manager of the firm’s deep value strategy.
In today’s episode, we’re covering Tobias’ best idea: small cap and microcap value. Value stocks have underperformed but Tobias thinks now they offer a great risk/reward. He walks us through historical data and research from the past 200 years and why that leads him to believe value will outperform going forward. We compare the current setup to prior periods when value underperformed in 2000 and even talk about some of his favorite holdings.
As we wind down, he touches on shorting the market and how it provides protection for long positions if the market falls over.
Please enjoy this special “Best Ideas” episode with Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle.
12/16/2020 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 13 seconds
#271 - Gary Zimmerman, Max My Interest - Several Of The Banks On Our Platform Offer Preferential Rates That Are Only Visible On The Max Platform
In episode 271, we welcome our guest, Gary Zimmerman, Managing Partner of Six Trees Capital LLC and Founder of MaxMyInterest, a software platform that allocates individuals’ cash among their own bank accounts so that they earn the most interest possible while staying within the limits for FDIC government-deposit insurance.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about how to actually earn some interest on your cash. Most banks today provide little to no interest and our guest has created a company that gives you a way to maximize your interest on deposits. Gary explains how trying to solve this problem for himself actually led our guest to start the company in 2013. We talk about how it works and why banks offer the Max platform a preferential rate, with the top rate on the platform right now at 85 basis-points, while most online banks are offering 25-60 basis-points.
As we start to wind down, we hear Gary’s thoughts on the potential for negative interest rates, how banks are positioned, and why the product has been picked up by lots of RIA’s and financial advisors.
Please enjoy this episode with Max My Interest’s, Gary Zimmerman.
12/14/2020 • 57 minutes, 31 seconds
#270 - Terri Spath, Sierra Investment Management - We Use A Quantitative Rules Based Process To Go Risk On, Risk Off
In episode 270, we welcome our guest, Terri Spath, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Sierra Investment Management, where she's responsible for market and economic analysis, portfolio allocation, investment strategy and building client solutions.
In today's episode, we're talking about her rules based approach to investing. Terri talks about Sierra Investment Management's different funds, including their tactical junk bond fund and their muni-bond fund. She gets into the benefits of applying a trend following approach to her strategies, what she's seeing across different asset classes, and why she's bullish on municipal bonds and South Korea.
As we start to wind down, Terri offers ways to implement some of these ideas with your own portfolio, whether it's with the equity or fixed-income portion.
Please enjoy this episode with Sierra Investment Management's Terri Spath.
12/9/2020 • 58 minutes, 46 seconds
#269 - Scott Lynn, Masterworks - I Think Art As An Asset Class Has To Be The Largest Asset Class That Has Never Been Securitized
In episode 269, we welcome our guest, Scott Lynn, the Founder & CEO of Masterworks, the first company to allow investors to buy shares representing ownership of great masterpieces by artists like Warhol, Monet, and more.
In today’s episode, we’re getting into the ins-and-outs of the art market. It’s been around a long time, but investing in it hasn’t been widely accessible. Scott launched a business that has set out to change that. He takes us through some history and the evolution of the market. We discuss constructing a data set to formally analyze returns of the asset class, and what he and his team learned from the process.
Scott talks about the interesting opportunity the art market offers from an investment standpoint, and specifically, what segments and artists the Masterworks team keeps their eye on.
Please enjoy this episode with Masterworks’, Scott Lynn.
12/7/2020 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 27 seconds
#268 - Best Idea Show - Doug Ludlow, MainStreet - We’re Now Saving The Average Company Using Our Platform About $75,000 Per Year
In episode 268, we welcome our guest, Doug Ludlow, the co-founder and CEO of MainStreet, a startup making it easy for businesses to access government incentive programs. In today’s episode, we talking Doug’s best idea: unclaimed money for small businesses and startups.
Every year the federal and local government have incentives that go unused and MainStreet’s platform is helping businesses access these and save around $75,000 per company! Doug updates us on MainStreet’s progress since we first heard from him earlier this year. He even have an exciting announcement on the company expanding their offering by almost doubling the available credits that companies have access to.
As the conversation winds down, Doug provides some real examples of companies who have saved a large amount of money using their platform.
Please enjoy this special “Best Ideas” episode with MainStreet’s Doug Ludlow.
12/2/2020 • 18 minutes, 52 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Tyler, Portfolio Charts - The Benefits of Bond Convexity
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 4.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Tyler take over this special episode.
11/30/2020 • 20 minutes, 15 seconds
#267 - Edward Altman, NYU - We Had More Billion Dollar Bankruptcies In 2020 As Of September Of This Year Than Any Year Ever
In episode 267, we welcome our guest, Edward Altman, professor at the Stern School of Business at NYU. In today’s episode, we’re talking corporate bankruptcy, high yield bonds and credit risk analysis.
We talk to Professor Altman about the Altman Z-Score Model, which he created in 1968 to predict bankruptcies. He discusses the record high debt levels companies had at the end of 2019 right before COVID hit the U.S. and what he’s seen this year with a large number of billion dollar bankruptcies. He also touches on the jump in the rate of zombie companies around the world.
As we start to wind down, Professor Altman explains why he is bullish on high quality junk bonds and why the happiest moment of his career was testifying in front of Congress in 2008 advocating bankruptcy for GM.
All this and more in episode 267 with NYU’s Edward Altman.
11/25/2020 • 53 minutes, 8 seconds
#266 - Best Idea Show - Kiyan Zandiyeh, Sturgeon Capital - We Have A Blank Canvas To Potentially Create What The Technology Ecosystem Of That Country Will Look Like Over The Next 5-10 Years
In episode 266, we welcome our guest, Kiyan Zandiyeh, Chief Investment Officer for Sturgeon Capital, a leading frontier markets investment boutique focused on technology-enabled businesses that offer a product or service which solves an unserved, acute pain point for a large addressable market.
We’re covering Kiyan’s best idea: frontier markets. With the U.S. markets near all-time highs, investors may want to look around the globe for other opportunities and frontier markets offer a unique risk/reward. Kiyan walks us through the current landscape and what countries he’s most interested in. He covers the most common risks investors need to be aware of, and why he’s focused on private companies utilizing technology in the ecommerce and enterprise SaaS spaces. As we wind down, he walks us through a couple real examples of investments he’s made in countries like Iran and Uzbekistan.
Please enjoy this special “Best Ideas” episode with Sturgeon Capital’s Kiyan Zandiyeh.
11/18/2020 • 52 minutes, 55 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Martin Tarlie, GMO - Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting?
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 4.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Martin take over this special episode.
11/16/2020 • 26 minutes, 5 seconds
#265 - Rusty Vanneman, Orion - To Manage Portfolio Risk, I Think You Have To Be More Creative Moving Forward
In episode 265, we welcome our guest, Rusty Vanneman, Chief Investment Officer for Orion Advisor Solutions. In today’s episode, we’re talking asset management programs and markets.
We talk to Rusty about the state of the industry for turnkey asset management programs, which effectively allow advisors to break out on their own with built-in back office support and a suite of investment options. He gets into direct indexing, and why these customized solutions carry unique advantages for investors in areas like ESG implementation and tax-loss harvesting. Rusty shares his thoughts on markets and some reasons to maintain a bullish attitude.
As we start to wind down, we dig into balance, global diversification, bonds, and getting creative to manage portfolio risk moving forward.
All this and more in episode 265 with Orion’s Rusty Vanneman.
11/11/2020 • 54 minutes
#264 - Sammy Courtright, Ten Spot - How Do We Get People To Feel Like They Work For The Same Company When They’re No Longer In The Same Place?
In episode 264, we welcome our guest, Sammy Courtright, co-founder of Ten Spot. In today’s episode, we’re talking about workforce engagement and solving some of the problems with distributed teams.
Sammy tells us the backstory of Ten Spot and the re-branding process they’ve gone through to focus on technology to help the company streamline and scale. She explains the business model, how important it is with the modern workforce to make sure teams are engaged and connecting, and how Ten Spot is bringing engagement to the table. We discuss what’s on the horizon for the company, including some thoughts on international expansion.
As the conversation winds down, Sammy shares the difficulty of navigating 2020, which not only includes trying to run the business, but extends to securing critical funding.
All this and more in episode 264 with Ten Spot’s Sammy Courtright.
11/9/2020 • 39 minutes, 48 seconds
#263 - Best Idea Show - Julian Klymochko, Accelerate Financial Technologies - The Purpose, And What We’re Really Seeing The SPAC Emerge This Year For, Is To Truly Raise Growth Capital For Growth Businesses
In episode 263, we welcome our guest, Julian Klymochko, founder and CEO of Accelerate Financial Technologies, a firm delivering institutional caliber ETFs, ranging from absolute return strategies to private equity replication to arbitrage. In today’s episode we’re covering our guest’s best idea: SPAC arbitrage.
It’s been a hot topic lately, and we dive into what the world of SPACs and SPAC arbitrage is all about. Julian offers a nice walk through of what a SPAC is and how the mechanics work. We cover what makes them such a unique vehicle for sponsors and investors alike, and get into the practical steps a SPAC must go through in the process of making business deals. We talk market dynamics, and chat about where the interesting arbitrage opportunities exist for investors.
Please enjoy this special “Best Ideas” episode with Accelerate’s Julian Klymochko.
11/6/2020 • 54 minutes, 24 seconds
#262 - Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3 Partners - When People Say ‘Shorts Only Kill The Stock Price’…No…There’s A Two Way Street In Their Activity
In episode 262, we welcome our guest, Ihor Dusaniwsky, Managing Director of Predictive Analytics for S3 Partners. In today’s episode, we’re chatting all things short-selling. If you are managing money on behalf of others, or even for your own account and don’t know if you are earning money, or even how much, from lending your securities, this is a must listen.
We cover the mechanics of short selling, that is, what actually happens when someone sells short a security. Ihor has said Tesla is the longest unprofitable short he’s ever seen. We chat Tesla and its status as the number-one short in the market right now by absolute size. We get into S3, and the unique, and frankly refreshing offering of providing timely, unbiased, stock loan data to investors.
As we wind down, we cover some of Ihor’s lessons and takeaways from his time analyzing short interest data.
All this and more in episode 262 with S3’s Ihor Dusaniwsky.
11/4/2020 • 58 minutes, 57 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Alec Lucas, Morningstar – A New Perspective on Geographical Diversification
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 4.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Alec take over this special episode.
11/2/2020 • 22 minutes, 24 seconds
#261 - Best Idea Show - Mike Lecours, fpPathfinder - We’re Seeing More Advisors Start To Build This Into A Core Part Of Their Business
In episode 261, we welcome our guest, Mike Lecours, co-founder of fpPathfinder, a firm developing flowcharts and checklists specifically to help advisors navigate complex financial planning questions to be more diligent in their planning processes.
We’re covering Mike’s best idea: Checklists for financial advisors. Financial planning is no walk in the park. The rules that guide the advice planners’ offer their clients are always changing. We walk through the value that checklists can add for advisors. Not only can they help answer questions in a thorough, diligent manner, but they stand to offer efficiency gains as well. We get into how advisors are putting them to work, and sometimes even leaning on them to demonstrate what the process and path of advice might look like.
As the conversation winds down we talk about evolving the resources into a digital solution to make the tools even more user friendly and integrated into the advisor workflow.
Please enjoy this special “Best Ideas” episode with fpPathfinder’s Mike Lecours.
10/30/2020 • 36 minutes, 37 seconds
#260 - Joel Greenblatt, Gotham Asset Management - Nine Out Of Ten Families In The Top Fifth Of The Income Chain Have Retirement Savings, Nine In Ten In The Bottom Fifth Have None
In episode 260, we welcome our guest, Joel Greenblatt, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Gotham Asset Management. In today’s episode we’re talking about real proposals for real problems.
We dig into topics that touch everyone in our society. We get into long-term savings, (by the way, nearly half of all working age families have zero retirement savings beyond what they might expect from social security) and discuss a novel tweak to the model that might deliver critical retirement savings for people who may not be in a position to save enough for retirement. We touch on our education system, where the core issues stem from, and how education might be able to be improved for all. We talk about the advantages of being open to immigration, and how a movement of alternative certification might spur an ecosystem that can improve how the workforce prepares for jobs and offer more direct ways of demonstrating technical know-how.
Make sure you listen all the way to the end, as Joel covers some high level thoughts about how he thinks about value investing and his perspective on markets right now.
All this and more in episode 260 with Gotham Asset Management’s Joel Greenblatt.
10/28/2020 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 28 seconds
#259 - Shane Heath, MUD\WTR - I Had Everything In My Head Already…I Felt Like I Was Just As Much Of A Customer Of My Own Product As Any Prospective Customer
In episode 259, we welcome our guest, Shane Heath, founder and CEO of MUD\WTR. In today’s episode, we’re diving into building a brand around needing something more out of coffee and the morning ritual.
Shane takes us through his relationship with coffee, why it no longer served him, and what he did to improve on the cup of joe many of us have built into our daily routine. From launch, it was only 6 months before the company hit 6 figures in monthly revenue. We hear about the evolution from filling orders from his kitchen and delivering them to the post office on his lunch break, to quitting his job, raising money, and scaling the business.
As we wind down, we discuss how the company was positioned for the current COVID environment as a modern D-to-C brand.
All this and more in episode 259 with MUD\WTR’s Shane Heath.
10/26/2020 • 1 hour, 13 seconds
#258 - Best Idea Show - Wes Gray, Alpha Architect - An ETF Centralizes Everything Into One Product
In today’s episode we welcome our guest, Alpha Architect’s founder and CEO, Wes Gray. We’re covering Wes’s best idea: Launching an ETF. We cover the ups and downs of the asset management business, and the different permutations his business went through before eventually landing on the ETF structure as the best way forward.
From transparency to tax efficiency to ease of access for investors, we chat about why someone should consider launching an ETF. We spend a lot of time walking through the process of getting a fund up-and-running, which is not for the faint of heart, and even walk through some case studies of some folks that have launched ETFs with Alpha Architect’s white label business.
Please enjoy this special “Best Ideas” episode with Alpha Architect’s Wes Gray.
10/23/2020 • 1 hour, 28 minutes, 10 seconds
#257 - Marc Levine - A Lot Of Times, If You Could Just Make Fewer Bad Decisions…That’s How You Win
In episode 257 we welcome our guest, Marc Levine. In today’s episode, we’re approaching investing from the institutional, pension side of things.
We talk to Marc about his role at ISBI. When he was there, there were 80 or so hedge funds in the portfolio. He discusses the mood in the boardroom when he made the decision to fire the vast majority of them and index the portfolio instead.
We get into his interesting way of thinking of investors in the context of a ‘Tribal’ model, and why he feels investors should honor all 4 tribes. We even get his thoughts on 13F investing.
All this and more in episode 257 with Marc Levine.
10/21/2020 • 1 hour, 37 minutes, 36 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates – Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 4.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Rob take over this special episode.
10/19/2020 • 33 minutes, 12 seconds
#256 - Best Idea Show - Jeremy Schwartz, Jesper Koll, WisdomTree - Japan Is Trading At The Lowest Valuation In 30 Years
In our inaugural ‘what’s your best idea’ episode, we welcome our guests, Jeremy Schwartz, WisdomTree’s Executive Vice President and Head of Global Research, and Jesper Koll, Senior Advisor to WisdomTree.
In today’s episode we’re covering their best idea: Japanese stocks. We get a bit of history on Japan’s past boom and bust cycle and the way it has shaped attitudes toward risk and investing in the country. We talk about Japan’s corporate culture, and how it has changed over the years.
We discuss the opportunity the Japanese stock market represents on the basis of fundamentals as the stock market now trades at the lowest valuation in 30 years, and what it’s going to take to get the market moving. We even get into the recent positions Warren Buffett has taken in a few Japanese firms.
All this and more in this special best ideas episode with WisdomTree’s Jeremy Schwartz and Jesper Koll.
10/16/2020 • 45 minutes, 4 seconds
#255 - Matt Peterson, Peterson Capital Management - We’re In A Global Pandemic; In A Recession…People Are Scared; That Creates Opportunity
In episode 255 we welcome our guest, Matt Peterson, Managing Partner of Peterson Capital Management. In today’s episode, we’re getting into concentrated, deep-value investing. We get into Matt’s long-term value based framework and a truly concentrated portfolio of about 12 names right now.
We cover his position entry strategy of writing cash-secured puts, which has helped the fund during periods of heightened volatility like we’ve experienced recently. We explore some interesting insights on Charlie Munger’s Daily Journal Corporation, and jumping on the opportunity to purchase Berkshire class B shares by writing puts as shares came down in price earlier in the year.
We get into some high level thoughts on the economy, the risk of holding cash and bonds, and the need to be prepared for some inflation down the road.
All this and more in episode 255 with Peterson Capital Management’s, Matt Peterson.
10/14/2020 • 56 minutes
#254 - Ken Nguyen, Republic - In The Past Ten Years, The Private Market Has Become Larger Because Companies Are Taking Longer To Go Public
In episode 254 we welcome our guest, Ken Nguyen, co-founder and CEO of Republic. In today’s episode, we’re talking startups, and how to make private investing widespread and available to everyone.
Traditionally, investment minimums have been high, but in grappling with their mission to bring startup investing to the masses, Republic has brought investment minimums down to twenty and even ten dollars in some cases. We get into Republic’s investor friendly model, and some of the advantages companies may gain from fund-raising on the platform.
We cover some background on laws that shaped who can invest in private companies and discuss recent developments that have brought about some welcome change to accredited investor rules. As we wind down, you definitely don’t want to miss the innovative approach Republic has taken to offer yet another iteration on startup investing through the Republic Note.
All this and more in episode 254 with Republic’s Ken Nguyen.
10/12/2020 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 40 seconds
#253 - Carl Chang, Kairos Investment Management - Once We Qualify We Can Mitigate Our Downside Scenario, Our Next Level Of Return Is Durable Cash Flow
In episode 253 we welcome our guest, Carl Chang, founder and CEO of Kairos Investment Management. In today’s episode, we’re talking real estate. It’s not every day I get a chance to talk with a pizza entrepreneur, successful real-estate investment management firm CEO, or Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Board Member. Carl is all three.
We get into Carl’s backstory and kicking off his career in the real estate business as a steward of family money. We discuss his firm’s investment criteria, looking at the fundamental core value of bricks and mortar, and evaluating opportunities by understanding whether or not they think they can make money in downside scenarios and earn durable cash flow. Carl reminds us that real estate is not all about yield, and walks us through what he was seeing in the early 2000s that made him a net seller during that period.
We talk about what the real estate landscape looks like going forward, from opportunities on the debt side of real estate to multifamily housing. As we wind down, we discuss Carl’s role as a board member of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and what it’s been like to launch an innovative spin on pizza with Pieology.
All this and more in episode 253 with Kairos’ Carl Chang.
10/7/2020 • 51 minutes, 14 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Vineer Bhansali, LongTail Alpha – Trading Sardines: The Case Of Currency Hedged Negative Yielding Bonds
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 4
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Vineer take over this special episode.
10/5/2020 • 19 minutes, 35 seconds
#252 - Cem Karsan, Aegea Capital - 30 Day Vol Tends To Be Overbid And You Have Extended Supply In The Back Of The Curve Historically
In episode 252 we welcome our guest, Cem Karsan, Founder and Senior Managing Partner of Aegea Capital Management.
In today’s episode, we’re getting deep into the weeds of market volatility. We hear from Cem about cutting his teeth in market making and S&P 500 equity options and eventually launching a strategy focused on long-volatility.
We get into structural inefficiencies around market vol that tend to increase during times of market stress. We talk about what the year has looked like so far from his perspective, and the feedback loop and risks associated with liquidity, compressed risk premia, and a low-yield environment. We chat about what he sees markets pricing in and risk perceptions around the election, and some trade ideas to potentially take advantage of what he believes is mispriced volatility in the December to January period.
All this and more in episode 252 with Aegea’s Cem Karsan.
9/30/2020 • 56 minutes, 56 seconds
Cambria Fund Profile Series – Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL)
In today’s episode of the Cambria Fund Profile Series, Meb discusses the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL).
Meb walks through why it’s important for investors to consider valuations in their process, and how investors can be thinking about portfolio positioning given stock market valuations around the world. He offers a historical perspective on market valuations through the lens of the Shiller PE ratio, often referred to as the Shiller CAPE ratio.
He covers the home bias phenomenon, which shows that investors tend to invest more heavily in their home countries. He talks about why this bias should be avoided, and that going back to 1980, US and foreign stocks have traded at similar valuations. He goes on to point out that, from a valuation perspective, no specific market is any more special and deserving of a long-term valuation premium than any other.
As the episode winds down, Meb walks through the portfolio construction process of the ETF.
All this and more in this Cambria Fund Profile Series episode, featuring the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL).
9/28/2020 • 15 minutes, 27 seconds
#251 - Robert Jacobson, Space Advisors - It’s Not Just One Vertical, It’s More Like An Ecosystem With Lots Of Different Dependencies…The High Ground of Space Being The Overarching Theme
In episode 251 we welcome our guest, Robert Jacobson, entrepreneur, advisor, and founder of Space Advisors, a strategic consulting firm for space startups. In today’s episode, we’re jumping into the space industry.
Robert has a new book out, Space Is Open For Business, The Industry That Can Transform Humanity. Through his career, investments, and his process of research and writing his book, he’s acquired a wealth of knowledge that we get into today.
We cover some of the historical groundwork on the space industry. We discuss ‘New Space,’ some interesting work that’s being developed, and what the funding scene looks like right now. We later get into global space, and some recent initiatives around the world to establish space industry presence.
All this and more in episode 251 with Space Advisors’ Robert Jacobson.
9/23/2020 • 55 minutes, 17 seconds
#250 - Kevin Gibbon, Airhouse - We’re The Operations And Logistics Platform For Direct-To-Consumer, Digital-First Brands
In episode 250 we welcome our guest, Kevin Gibbon, co-founder and CEO of Airhouse. In today’s episode, we’re talking about easing the frustration of shipping, operations and logistics for ecommerce companies.
We don’t often hear about the trials and tribulations many founders go through when starting and running businesses. Kevin shares what it was like to launch and run a business that he ultimately was forced to close. He shares the hard lessons he learned, and importantly, the insights he was able to extract and later breathe into a brand new effort with his current company, Airhouse.
We talk about the pain point direct-to-consumer brands face when it comes to operations and logistics. We walk through the technology Airhouse is bringing to the table and the deep knowledge they’re learning about warehouses based on their own network data that’s enabling superior matching for customers. Kevin shares his goal that one day, Airhouse might empower the solo entrepreneur to have a 20-30 million-dollar brand.
All this and more in episode 250 with Airhouse’s Kevin Gibbon.
9/21/2020 • 1 hour, 52 seconds
#249 - Ben Savage, Clocktower Technology Ventures - Financial Services Has Had A Smaller Share Of Venture Capital Dollars Pointed At It…Since The Inception Of The Venture Capital Industry
In episode 249 we welcome our guest, Ben Savage, Partner at Clocktower Technology Ventures. In today’s episode, we’re diving into VC and innovation in the financial services industry.
Ben has had an interesting path, and having spent some time at Bridgewater along the way, we spend a bit of time on high level thoughts about investing, allocation, and risk parity strategies.
We get into the heart of what Clocktower Technology Ventures is all about. We talk about the small allocation of venture capital dollars financial services industry has received relative to tech and life sciences, and get the lowdown on why this pocket of the startup world is so compelling. We even get the rundown on a couple of portfolio investments, and what makes them so exciting.
All this and more in episode 249 with Clocktower Technology Ventures’ Ben Savage.
9/16/2020 • 1 hour, 30 minutes, 9 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Anil Rao and Raman Subramanian, MSCI – Game of Homes: Is winter coming for the domestic-equity bias?
Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved it, so we’re running it back again this year with The Best Investment Writing Volume 4
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers from all over the planet.
Enough from me, let’s let Anil take over this special episode.
9/14/2020 • 10 minutes, 5 seconds
#248 - JC Parets, All Star Charts - The Sooner We Can Find Out We’re Wrong The Better…Then We Can Go Move On To Something Else
In episode 248 we welcome our guest, JC Parets, Founder and Chief Strategist of All Star Charts. In today’s episode, we’re talking technical analysis, and what’s going on in the markets right now. We cover JC’s jump into technical analysis as a way to seek a better way to manage risk responsibly.
We chat about his process of going through thousands of charts each week to help him see what’s going on in markets all over the world. We get into what’s going on in markets right now, stocks making new highs, rotation into emerging markets, a weaker US dollar, and July’s best performing index, the Dow Jones Transportation Average.
He even offers a simple and refreshing answer to the question of what would make him turn bearish right now.
All this and more in episode 248 with All Star Chart’s JC Parets.
9/9/2020 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 31 seconds
#247 - David Oates, Curtsy - Our Number One Best Selling Item To-Date Is Active Wear…Lululemon Leggings, Lululemon Shorts, Nike Shorts
In episode 247 we welcome our guest, David Oates, CEO and Co-Founder of Curtsy. In today’s episode, we’re talking about running a company completely designed around making it easy for people to buy and sell clothes.
We chat about the pivot the company took from launching as an app allowing women to rent clothing from each other to an app focused on buying and selling. We discuss some of the user-friendly features that have moved the needle for the company, like the effort put into curating and merchandising the items to the Curtsy shipping kit that keeps users from needing to leave their home to ship items.
Curtsy has found themselves in the fortunate position of increased growth during this environment, but our guest lets us in on what the team is focused on in the near future, and what they are excited about as they look ahead.
All this and more in episode 247 with David Oates.
9/7/2020 • 46 minutes, 42 seconds
#246 - Eric Sprott, Mark O’Dea, Oxygen - I’m Trying To Look For Some Value That’s Not Appreciated By The Market
In episode 246 we welcome our guests, the legendary Eric Sprott, and Oxygen Capital’s Mark O’Dea. In today’s episode, we’re talking gold, silver, mining and exploration.
We talk about recent performance, and the popularity of gold among some high-profile institutional investors. We get into the lifecycle of mining and exploration companies, and allocating capital over the full lifecycle. We hear the story of the Gold Corp. Challenge, and how that became the launch point that took Mark O’Dea from contract geologist to running what would later become a multi-billion takeout by Newmont.
We discuss the M&A appetite in the sector, and cover some practical thoughts on how investors can put some of the things from this conversation together to potentially implement a few ideas for their own portfolio.
All this and more in episode 246 with Eric Sprott and Mark O’Dea.
9/2/2020 • 50 minutes, 28 seconds
#245 - Éva Goicochea, Maude - The Ethos Of The Company Is To Make Sex More Human, More Normalized, Destigmatized…To Do That, It Started With Design
In episode 245 we welcome our guest Éva Goicochea, founder and CEO of Maude.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about building a modern business around sexual wellness. We start with Éva’s background in the business world, and as a legislative aide in healthcare during her early career.
We talk about launching Maude, the origin story, and the need for a brand that can push to de-stigmatize sex and focus on intimacy and wellness for all people. We discuss the evolution of the sexual wellness industry, and the laws that shaped the industry we’re familiar with today. We get into innovating sexual wellness products, and how Maude is doing that from a core base of quality, inclusive, essential products, and modern packaging.
We dive into the business, some of the interesting challenges the company has faced recently, from dealing with trying to keep products in stock, global supply chain issues during COVID, and finalizing a 3rd round of funding.
All this and more in episode 245 with Maude’s Éva Goicochea
8/31/2020 • 38 minutes, 12 seconds
#244 - Tom Basso - Investing Is A Mental Game More Than It Is Having The Perfect Indicator Or…Even The Perfect Position Sizing
In episode 244 we welcome our guest, long time trader and trend follower, Tom Basso. In today’s episode, we’re talking trend following and trading.
We start with some of Tom’s early trades, cutting his teeth on corn futures, and, as a disciplined trend follower, going through hell before a silver futures trade was in the books for a nice gain. We discuss power laws and outliers, and his finding that it sometimes came down to a handful of trades that made the difference between profit and breaking even, or even losing money for the year.
We cover the critical concept of position sizing, and why it has been a cornerstone of Tom’s trading systems over the years. We get into the mental side of investing, and as we wind down, Tom lets us in on the virtues of trading multiple, symbiotic strategies.
All this and more in episode 244 with Tom Basso.
8/26/2020 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 20 seconds
#243 - Doug Ludlow, MainStreet - We’d Like To Be There As America And The World Starts To Rebuild, And Give Tools To These Companies…Access To Capital And Financing In A Way They Wouldn’t Have Had Before
In episode 243 we welcome our guest, Doug Ludlow, CEO of MainStreet. In today’s episode, we’re talking about saving meaningful money.
We kick off the conversation with MainStreet’s launch of an incentive campaign that would pay people $10,000 to leave the Bay Area. As a result, they received an influx of local and state governments reaching out to inform them of their own incentive programs.
This caused MainStreet to shift the product vision to serve the small business and startup community as a government relations and finance team, making it easy to gain access to the same tools and incentive programs being used by sophisticated corporate finance groups. Better yet, the average company is saving around $50,000 per year!
We dive into the user experience of integrating MainStreet into HR platforms, and even get into some of the tax credits out there, some of the qualifications to access them, and the success-based business model the team has implemented.
All this and more in episode 243 with Doug Ludlow.
8/12/2020 • 51 minutes, 47 seconds
#242 - Ham Serunjogi, Chipper Cash - Africa Has The Highest Cost Of Sending Money In The World
In episode 242 we welcome our guest, Ham Serunjogi, co-founder and CEO of Chipper Cash. In today’s episode, we’re talking cross border peer-to-peer money transfer.
We walk through the reality of limited access to easy and seamless money interaction available to many people outside of the US and other more developed regions of the world. We chat path the road Chipper Cash has taken to develop an easy-to-use P2P money transfer platform in Africa, which has the highest cost of sending money in the world.
We even get into the thinking behind launching the product, resisting the urge to go 0-100 right out of the gate, and taking time to process high-value feedback in order to continue to develop and improve the offering.
All this and more in episode 242 with Ham Serunjogi.
8/5/2020 • 50 minutes, 59 seconds
#241 - Doug Ramsey, The Leuthold Group - By Our Interpretation, We’re There, I Do Think It’s Time To Be Rotating Away From Large Cap Growth
In episode 241 we welcome our guest, Doug Ramsey, Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group. In today’s episode, we’re talking markets.
We jump right in with a walk through of Leuthold’s sober 10-year market forecast. We talk about valuation spreads between growth and value, and Leuthold’s thinking about how to be positioned based on takeaways from their research.
We get into thoughts on the US dollar, commodities, the opportunity in foreign markets, and the fallout in earnings power from the recent downturn.
All this and more in episode 241 with Doug Ramsey.
7/29/2020 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 31 seconds
#240 - Stefan Batory, Booksy - This Is Probably The Last Major Vertical That’s Not Digitalized…And This Is A Massive Space
In episode 240 we welcome our guest, Stefan Batory, co-founder and CEO of Booksy. In today’s episode, we’re talking about helping folks in the hair and beauty industry get organized and get their time back when it comes to scheduling customers.
We discuss the headaches and time-sink these professionals experience when it comes to scheduling; the majority of them are still using some type of manual or non-digitalized solution when it comes to scheduling. We cover launching and growing the business, the fragmented nature of the industry, and the massive opportunity for Booksy as they address the market, which represents hundreds of billions of dollars in services globally.
As we wind down, we even touch on some memorable moments of gratitude the Booksy team has received from customers that have achieved a better and healthier work/life balance.
All this and more in episode 240 with Stefan Batory.
7/27/2020 • 54 minutes, 48 seconds
#239 - Chris Fernandez, EnsoData - There Was One Particular Area That Felt Like It Was At Least 5 Years Behind…And That Was The Application Of AI To Waveform Data
In episode 239 we welcome our guest, Chris Fernandez, co-founder and CEO of EnsoData. In today’s episode, we’re talking all things sleep.
We walk through the origin story of EnsoData, from the founders’ initial idea followed by 12 pivots to arrive at their flagship product, EnsoSleep. We talk about analyzing sleep data, solving hard data analysis problems with AI, and boostrapping enough data into the EnsoData ecosystem to build and validate the product.
We get into the long-term vision for the company, and even the potential for transferability of their algorithms and AI into other areas outside of sleep.
All this and more in episode 239 with Chris Fernandez.
7/22/2020 • 50 minutes, 57 seconds
#238 - Mark Straub, Smile Identity - Face Recognition Is, In A Sense, Deep Technology
In episode 238 we welcome our guest, Mark Straub, co-founder and CEO of Smile Identity. In today’s episode, we’re talking user authentication and biometric checks.
We kick off the episode with some observations from Mark about the evolution of startup fundraising as he’s traveled the world. We get into some of the efforts that have been in place by organizations in emerging economies to prevent fraud, and some of the issues that have resulted as a byproduct.
We discuss the backstory of Smile Identity and the current use case for Smile Identity’s technology. We dive into the nuts and bolts of challenges faced by face recognition technology, and the thought and work involved to implement and train algorithms for biometric checks.
All this and more in episode 238 with Mark Straub.
7/20/2020 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 7 seconds
#237 - Ryan McQuaid, PlushCare - If You Look At Virtual Visits Last Year, They’re Only 1-2% Of All Addressable Visits
In episode 237 we welcome our guest, Ryan McQuaid, co-founder and CEO of PlushCare. In today’s episode, we’re getting into a hot topic in this pandemic environment, telehealth.
We start by hearing the origin story behind PlushCare as Ryan shares his personal experience of receiving fully digital support and medical care from a friend who was a Stanford physician, identifying that 1% of Americans can afford the price-tag of a concierge doctor, and pursuing the opportunity to democratize the model, making it widely available to all. We walk through the experience PlushCare provides patients and physicians, and the emphasis on investing a lot on the physician side of the business.
We cover the experience of navigating COVID as a telehealth provider, and the need to increase physician capacity 4X! We get into the state of the industry, and our Ryan’s thoughts about this being the future of patient-physician relationships, and the vision for the company going forward.
All this and more in episode 237 with Ryan McQuaid
7/15/2020 • 41 minutes, 54 seconds
#236 - Stuart Landesberg, Grove Collaborative - I Believe Deeply That Having A Truly Mission Driven Business Is A Sustainable Competitive Advantage
In episode 236 we welcome our guest, Stuart Landesberg, founder and CEO of Grove Collaborative. In today’s episode, we’re talking about building a mission-driven business around delivering sustainable home essentials.
We discuss launching Grove on two long term trends, conventional vs. natural products, and the transition from offline to online models. We walk through the highs and lows of operating a company with little capital early-on, and the deep insights our guest gleaned from taking the time to perform simple user tests. We talk about the freedom an online-platform offers when it comes to innovation, and Grove’s goal of becoming plastic free by 2025.
We cover why Grove pursued status as a B-corp, and the opinion that a truly mission-driven business can have a sustainable competitive advantage. As we wind down we talk about the challenges Grove has navigated during COVID, and the jump they had on taking precautions in the early days of the pandemic.
All this and more in episode 236 with Stuart Landesberg.
7/13/2020 • 58 minutes, 43 seconds
#235 - Ajay Prakash, Rinse - The Barriers To Entry Are Super Low…But The Barriers To Scale Are Incredibly High
In episode 235 we welcome our guest, Ajay Prakash, co-founder and CEO of Rinse.
In today’s episode, we’re talking about building and scaling laundry and dry cleaning. We talk about the origin story behind Rinse and narrowing in on friction in the consumer experience and applying technology to old-school industries.
We discuss testing the offering on friends, and building a platform that leverages current industry infrastructure. We then get into future growth plans, the importance of expanding deeper into current markets, and other considerations they’re making to grow and expand the business.
All this and more in episode 235 with Ajay Prakash.
7/8/2020 • 56 minutes, 5 seconds
#234 - Harindra de Silva, Analytic Investors of Wells Fargo Asset Management - Just Because A Factor Hasn’t Been Working For 3 Years…Don’t Ignore It…Continue To Evaluate It
In episode 234 we welcome our guest, Harin de Silva, president and portfolio manager for the Wells Fargo Asset Management Analytic Investors team. In today’s episode, we’re talking factors and long/short investing.
We discuss factors as anything that can help explain return, and the all-important task of assigning weights to factors in portfolio construction. We get into short selling, and some of the challenges that need to be carefully navigated, from risk management to asymmetric return distributions, to the cost of borrow.
As we wind down, we cover the appetite institutions have for factor investing and how they seem to be a lot more interested in general, however, they’re less willing to pay for strategies they can get cheaply.
All this and more in episode 234 with Harin de Silva.
7/6/2020 • 50 minutes, 46 seconds
#233 - Lisa Rich, Hemisphere Ventures, Xplore - Opening Up The Door For Access To Space
In episode 233 we welcome our guest, Lisa Rich, managing partner of Hemisphere Ventures and founder and COO of Xplore. In today’s episode, we’re talking about tech and the front lines of space exploration.
Lisa walks through her background as an entrepreneur, and her transition as an investor with Hemisphere Ventures as she saw the emerging case for frontier technology. We talk through some interesting case studies of a few portfolio companies, from Axiom Space, building the world’s first commercial space station, to PlanetIQ, focusing on satellite-borne, state-of-the-art sensors to collect data to improve weather forecasting, space weather prediction, and climate analytics. We then jump into her own space company, Xplore.
We chat about space as a service and commercial capabilities, as well as development of their spacecraft, Xcraft. We dive into milestones that include working with NASA on version 4.0 of the Xcraft, planned to travel to the solar gravity lens focal region as the fastest spacecraft ever built in human history.
All this and more in episode 233 with Lisa Rich.
7/1/2020 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 55 seconds
#232 - Luis Perez, Remoov - We’re Removing That Headache And We’re Giving You That Piece Of Mind And Your Space Back
In episode 232 we welcome our guest, Luis Perez, Founder of Remoov. In today’s episode, we’re getting organized. We’re talking about taking the work off your hands of removing all of that unwanted clutter.
We discuss the idea that was prompted by the observation of inefficiency in the college move-in, move-out process. Luis took it upon himself to store outgoing students’ items over the summer, and sell them to incoming students in the fall. He found a market and traction, and today he’s running and growing this model with Remoov. We discuss operations and trying to find efficiency in this capital intensive business through technology and innovative processes.
We get into the logistics of entering new markets and targeting demographics such as baby-boomers that are likely to be downsizing. We talk about how the COVID pandemic has impacted the business, and the ‘on-your-feet’ thinking that led to Remoov opportunistically connecting with downsizing businesses.
All this and more in episode 232 with Luis Perez.
6/29/2020 • 53 minutes, 31 seconds
#231 - Julian Klymochko, Accelerate Financial Technologies - The Democratization Of Alternatives, It’s Happening, But It’s Something That Does Not Happen Overnight
In episode 231, we welcome our guest, Julian Klymochko, founder and CEO of Accelerate Financial Technologies. In today’s episode, we’re talking liquid alts and democratizing alternative strategies that have been tapped by the world’s largest institutions for decades.
We get into the current state of liquid alts and hedge funds, and the standardization and commoditization that has come with increased competition. We talk about merger arbitrage. Julian offers a story about a 2014 trade that went awry when he was running his first hedge fund, adding color to some of the mechanics and risks inherent in the strategy.
We key in on private equity, dig into the lack of mark-to-market appraisal of holdings, and how this strategy can be replicated in public markets. As we wind down, we discuss the opportunity in the future for flows to work their way from complex, high fee alternatives, into low-cost liquid alts.
All this and more in episode 231 with Julian Klymochko.
6/24/2020 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 56 seconds
#230 - Ryan Lupberger, Cleancult - There’s No Other Brand On The Market That Can Sit On Shelves And Be Zero Waste
In episode 230 we welcome our guest, Ryan Lupberger, Co-Founder and CEO of Cleancult. In today’s episode, we’re talking cleaning. Sustainable cleaning products to be exact.
We talk about Cleancult’s origin story, zero waste packaging, and products that actually work. We discuss getting involved with Parallel 18, a Puerto Rican accelerator that was essential to network building, and tapping into the strong pharma, science, and the R&D community that Puerto Rico has to offer.
We dig into the journey of iterations on product and packaging, and the ‘aha’ moment and decision to offer soap refills in milk cartons, the challenge that idea posed, and the custom machinery and technology that helped make that a reality.
All this and more in episode 230 with Ryan Lupberger.
6/22/2020 • 49 minutes, 11 seconds
#229 - Evan Brandoff, LeagueSide - There’s No Better Way To Engage With Families In The Community Than Through Youth Sports
In episode 229 we welcome our guest, Evan Brandoff, Co-Founder and CEO of LeagueSide. In today’s episode, we’re talking about targeted, local marketing through youth sports organizations.
Marketing through youth sports has been going on for a long time, many have played on teams with local sponsors, or have noticed a favorite local business sponsoring a team. Evan talks about evolving that model to offer automated execution through a technology platform that delivers sponsorship of local youth sports to regional and national brands.
We discuss the “aha” moment that led to the founding of LeagueSide, and the evolution of the business. We get into the impact COVID has had on the viability of youth sports leagues, and some of the tactics they are using to navigate these difficult times from a business standpoint and to support youth sports.
All this and more in episode 229 with Evan Brandoff.
6/17/2020 • 46 minutes, 59 seconds
Cambria Fund Profile Series – Cambria Tail Risk ETF (TAIL)
In today’s episode of the Cambria Fund Profile Series, Meb discusses the Cambria Tail Risk ETF (TAIL).
Meb walks through the S&P 500’s move from it’s all time high on February 14th 2020 to it’s recent low on March 23rd 2020 that resulted in a decline of 33.7% in just 20 days.
He poses the question: “Is there any way an investor might have been able to mitigate this decline in his or her portfolio?”
He then makes the case for the Cambria Tail Risk ETF (TAIL), a fund engineered to help guard against significant market drawdowns.
As the episode winds down, Meb poses this scenario:
“Is the stock market back on solid footing today? No one has a crystal ball. If I told you a year ago, that unemployment would jump from low single digits around 4% to over 15% today, that Fed interest rates would fall from 2.5% to near zero today, that gold would be up massively, stock volatility would be up, and oil would crash down over 50%, and yet, despite all of this, stocks are up. Would you believe me? Most would not.”
All this and more in this Cambria Fund Profile Series episode, featuring the Cambria Tail Risk ETF (TAIL).
6/15/2020 • 16 minutes, 56 seconds
#228 - Danilo Santiago, Rational Investment Methodology - The Market Will Tend To Overpay When Earnings Are Good And Underpay When The Company Gets In Some Kind Of Trouble
In episode 228 we welcome our guest, Danilo Santiago, founding partner of Rational Investment Methodology. In today’s episode, we’re talking stocks and investment process.
We take a deep dive into Danilo’s fundamental process that is, to a large extent, automated by programs he developed over many years. We chat about circle of competence, and why Rational focuses on a quasi-static group of about 60 companies, and has done so for over a decade.
We even walk through a case study, and talk about how Danilo thinks about the long and short side of his book.
All this and more in episode 228 with Danilo Santiago
6/10/2020 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 50 seconds
#227 - Alex Smereczniak, 2ULaundry - Quality Has to Be At The Forefront of Everything That We’re Doing
In episode 227 we welcome our guest, Alex Smereczniak, Co-Founder and CEO of 2ULaundry. In today’s episode, we’re talking about re-thinking the laundry and dry cleaning business.
Alex cut his teeth in the business with a student-run startup at Wake Forest. We get into what he saw with existing startup models trying to scale the laundry business, and why he thought the model needed to be approached in an entirely different way.
We discuss scaling the business and 2ULaundry’s differentiating factors of pick up and delivery scheduling, vertical integration, and launching in markets where there is little competition, but room to scale.
As the conversation winds down, we cover what 2ULaundry has done to navigate during the COVID-19 pandemic.
All this and more in episode 227 with Alex Smereczniak.
6/8/2020 • 53 minutes, 51 seconds
#226 - Vineer Bhansali, LongTail Alpha - The Bigger Question To Me Is Not Whether Tail Risk Hedging Is Good Or Bad, But Whether It Is Good Or Bad For Your Current Portfolio Posture
In episode 226 we welcome our guest, Vineer Bhansali, CIO of LongTail Alpha. In today’s episode, we’re talking current markets and tail risk hedging.
We get into what has been going on in markets, and talk about asymmetric portfolio construction. We discuss recent market liquidity, and how it is the worst Vineer has seen in his career.
We cover tail risk hedging, and walk through some examples of how to implement, and how different techniques fare in various environments.
All this and more in episode 226 with Vineer Bhansali.
6/3/2020 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 21 seconds
#225 - Eric Crittenden, Standpoint Asset Management - I Enjoy Trying To Win A Marathon Rather Than Winning Sprints
In episode 225 we welcome our guest, Eric Crittenden. In today’s episode, we’re talking managed futures and trend following.
We get into investor behavior, and the challenges of getting people to allocate to managed futures, despite the data that shows they should. Eric has come up with a creative way to re-frame the conversation around managed futures to help investors break through, and deepen their understanding.
We even walk through Standpoint’s managed futures process. We cover portfolio construction and what the allocation looks like right now.
All this and more in episode 225 with Eric Crittenden.
6/1/2020 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 40 seconds
#224 - Eric Kinariwala, Capsule - The Pharmacy Sits At The Center Of The Healthcare System
In episode 224 we welcome our guest, Eric Kinariwala, Founder and CEO of Capsule. In today’s episode, we’re talking disruption of the $425 billion pharmacy industry.
We hear about the experience that sparked the idea for Capsule. We cover the state of the industry, and the feedback Eric received about the poor experience friends and doctors are having with the current pharmacy model.
We then dig into the company, delivering an easier and better way for people to get and manage medications, and the customer experience that is inspired by a loving and overbearing mother.
All this and more in episode 224 with Eric Kinariwala.
5/27/2020 • 42 minutes, 11 seconds
#223 - Steven Jorgenson, Starbridge Venture Capital - The Launch Sector is Literally Less Than 2% Of The Space Industry
In episode 223 we welcome our guest, Steven Jorgenson, Managing General partner of Starbridge Venture Capital. Strap in and let your imagination run wild…In today’s episode, we’re talking about the space industry.
We cover the space economy. There’s a lot more to it than just the launch sector. We dig into microgravity, and the opportunity it offers research and development. We chat about terrestrial market applications, and we even walk through a few investments in the portfolio.
If that isn’t enough, Steven lays out a timeline for the space industry over the next decade and beyond; it may leave you feeling that we’ll be living a sci-fi novel in the not too distant future.
All this and more in episode 223 with Steven Jorgenson.
5/25/2020 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 17 seconds
#222 - Dakin Sloss, Prime Movers Lab - Power Law Is The Key To Understanding Venture Capital
In episode 222 we welcome our guest, Dakin Sloss of Prime Movers Lab. In today’s episode, we’re talking venture capital and investing in breakthrough scientific startups.
We get into the way Prime Movers Lab thinks about its place in the venture capital ecosystem and why Dakin believes the least useful thing they provide is capital. We talk about assessing entrepreneurs and companies and looking for founders who don’t give up.
Dakin even gives us insight into some of the innovative companies in the portfolio, those executing on ideas from space transit to sustainable aquaponic farming.
All this and more in episode 222 with Dakin Sloss.
5/20/2020 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 14 seconds
#221 - Chris Davis, Davis Advisors - As Human Beings, We Don’t Welcome Fear And Panic…As Investors, We Welcome The Bargain Prices That Those Emotions [Tend To] Produce
In episode 221 we welcome our guest, Chris Davis of Davis Advisors. In today’s episode, we’re talking stocks and investor behavior.
We begin with Chris’s background and transition into some of his early lessons about investing and compound returns. We hit on investor behavior and trying to keep investors behaving in their own best interests.
We discuss current markets, owning durable and resilient businesses, and the thinking behind the fundamental process at Davis. We even get into some thoughts about opportunities in markets today, from financials to energy.
All this and more in episode 221 with Chris Davis.
5/18/2020 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 55 seconds
#220 - Andrew Beer, Dynamic Beta Investments - Can You Match Or Outperform Leading Hedge Funds, But With Low Fees, Daily Liquidity, And Less Downside Risk?
In episode 220 we welcome our guest, Andrew Beer of Dynamic Beta Investments. In today’s episode, we’re talking hedge funds and replication.
We kick things off with some background that includes Andrew’s start in the industry with Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group in 1994. We discuss replication strategies, what Dynamic Beta is doing to try to outperform hedge fund portfolios, and most importantly, how they are doing it.
We talk about the firm’s equity long/short and managed futures strategies, understanding key hedge fund allocations, and what the funds look like right now. As the conversation winds, down we chat COVID and what the future might look like for liquid alts.
All this and more in episode 220 with Andrew Beer.
5/13/2020 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 17 seconds
#219 - Paul Collier, Oxford - What Capitalism Offers Is A Combination Of Competition And Collaboration
In episode 219 we welcome our guest, Sir Paul Collier. In today’s episode, we’re talking economics and capitalism.
We kick things off by covering some instances of the derailment of capitalism. We go all the way back to the mid-1800s to Bradford England’s industrial rise, the ensuing health crisis, and how capitalism responded. We walk forward to talk about the divide between metropolis and provincial cities, and the new class divide.
We discuss psychological and economic issues facing what professor Collier refers to as, “left behind countries.” We then shift to a thoughtful discussion of prescriptions to these problems, and the factors that need to work in harmony to create common purpose.
All this and more in episode 219 with Sir Paul Collier.
5/11/2020 • 49 minutes, 1 second
#218 - Adam Karr, Orbis Investments - One Of The Most Important Decisions You Make Is The Price That You Pay
In episode 218 we welcome our guest, Adam Karr. In today’s episode, we’re talking stocks and investment process.
We cover Orbis’ investment philosophy, and the relentless focus on companies trading at a discount to intrinsic value through a bottom-up analysis process. Adam offers thoughts on the current environment and why he thinks this looks more like the .com bubble, rather than the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
We get into some of the opportunities in the market today and discuss emphasizing companies with balance sheet strength and thinking in terms of long-term, normalized earnings power.
All this and more in episode 218 with Orbis Investments’ Adam Karr.
5/6/2020 • 57 minutes, 34 seconds
#217 - Mary Wheeler, BioRock Ventures - 2019…There Were 20 $1B Biopharma IPOs…We Just Don’t Call Them Unicorns Because They’re Not That Rare
In episode 217 we welcome our guest, Mary Wheeler, Founding Managing Director of BioRock Ventures. In today’s episode, we get into biotech and venture capital.
We cover Mary’s deep background that ultimately influenced her investment focus on biotech. We cover her fund, BioRock Ventures, investing in biopharma startups, her core investment criteria, and keeping an eye out for companies serving unmet need areas.
We touch on some key differences between biotech focused VC investing vs. other areas of VC. Mary even shares some insight into a company in her portfolio that has focused resources on potential COVID19 applications.
All this and more in episode 217 with BioRock Ventures’ Mary Wheeler.
5/4/2020 • 50 minutes, 49 seconds
#216 - David Samra, Artisan Partners - The Primary Driver of Our Behavior Is Finding a Company That Trades At A Discount To Intrinsic Value
In episode 216 we welcome our guest, David Samra, a managing director of Artisan Partners and founding partner of the Artisan Partners International Value Team.
In today’s episode, we discuss David’s background and what led him down the path of value investing. We cover the characteristics that drive Artisan’s framework and investment process.
With the recent market selloff in mind, we walk through some industries that are offering value right now, from travel and leisure to energy, and where Artisan has been deploying cash.
As the conversation winds down, we talk high-level about the asset management industry and deploying value strategies.
All this and more in episode 216 with Artisan Partners’ David Samra.
4/29/2020 • 56 minutes, 22 seconds
#215 - David Chan, FarmTogether - How Do We Make Farmland As An Asset Class More Accessible?
In episode 215 we welcome our guest, David Chan, COO and a founding team member of FarmTogether. We discuss the FarmTogether platform and making farmland investing more accessible.
We cover farmland as an asset class, some history about the fragmented nature of farmland ownership, and the relatively small 2-3% ownership stake that is in institutional hands. We cover the broad models of farmland ownership, and a real-world example of how a deal actually works on the FarmTogether platform.
As we get deeper into the conversation, we hear some thoughts on sustainability and the role regenerative agriculture can play in reducing agriculture’s carbon footprint.
All this and more in episode 215 with FarmTogether’s David Chan.
4/27/2020 • 57 minutes, 55 seconds
#214 - Jake Gibson, Better Tomorrow Ventures - We Think This Idea Of Embedded Fintech Is Going To Get Really Interesting In The Years To Come
In episode 214 we welcome our guest, Jake Gibson, founding partner of Better Tomorrow Ventures.
We discuss startup investing in the world of fintech. We get into some of the opportunities going forward, from disruption in products, user experience and distribution models, to how some non-fintech companies may be able to start leveraging the fintech infrastructure to integrate financial services into other products.
We touch on the next wave of fintech, banking as a service, and a future that may evolve into a far deeper set of automated financial services that greatly reduce friction and improve the experience for the consumer.
Stay tuned to the end to hear some detail about Jake’s new fund, focused on pre-seed and seed stage fintech companies.
All this and more, in episode 214 with Jake Gibson.
4/22/2020 • 56 minutes, 57 seconds
#213 - David Sanderson, Reelgood - The Average Household In The US Uses 5 Streaming Services
In episode 213 we welcome our guest, David Sanderson, founder and CEO of Reelgood. We get into David’s frustrating experience of juggling multiple streaming services and how that ultimately led him to launch Reelgood.
We talk about the buildout of the product and how important data management and processing is to product implementation. Later on, we chat about the bet he and his company made on fragmentation in the streaming market, and one of the greatest challenges he has faced with his company.
Don’t miss this great episode with Reelgood founder and CEO, David Sanderson.
4/20/2020 • 39 minutes, 4 seconds
#212 - Eric Satz, AltoIRA - I Want Everybody To Be Able To Invest In Alternative Assets
In episode 212 we welcome our guest, Eric Satz, the founder and CEO of AltoIRA.
Eric shares the frustration he experienced trying to make private investments in his retirement account, and how that led him down the path of solving the problem and ultimately the launch of his company, AltoIRA.
We discuss alternative investments and the case for holding them in retirement accounts. We get into the nuts and bolts of how AltoIRA works and where it is going in the future.
As we wind down, we chat about having an understanding what is out of your control and shifting focus to doing your absolute best on what you can control.
All this and more, in episode 212 with Eric Satz.
4/15/2020 • 55 minutes, 5 seconds
#211 - Julie Novack, PartySlate - We Know Who Works Together…We Can Amplify Those Real World Relationships…That Is Such A Powerful Network Effect
In episode 211 we welcome our guest, Julie Novack, the CEO and co-founder of PartySlate. We discuss the party planning industry and how PartySlate is bringing something entirely different to the table with its content-rich platform and transparent crediting.
We get into the frustration Julie faced logging hours online trying to plan a high-profile cancer research gala, and how that experience ultimately led to the idea behind her company. We talk about the business model, growth plans, and her experience with startup incubator, Techstars.
Julie even offers thoughts on the future and some major trends she’s seeing take shape in the event planning industry.
All this and more, in episode 211 with Julie Novack.
4/13/2020 • 51 minutes, 4 seconds
#210 - Jonathan Treussard, Research Affiliates - Be Aware Of The Cracks Under Your Feet
In episode 210 we welcome our guest, Jonathan Treussard, Partner, and Head of Product Development at Research Affiliates.
We discuss what’s currently going on in the world around us and how rapidly things are changing. We cover the idea of “nowcasting,” and how it’s different from the type of forecasting and opinion that prevalent, often unhelpful, and sometimes downright detrimental to investment decision making.
We talk about Research Affiliate’s stance on valuations, emerging markets looking attractive, and having discipline when it comes to analyzing data to form a sensible guide to forward looking expectations. We get into factor investing, value investing’s underperformance, and the behavioral struggle investors have with it.
As we wind down, we chat ESG investing, and hear a candid take on the industry’s approach in helping investors prepare for retirement.
All this and more, including some of Jonathan’s thoughts on ESG investing.
4/8/2020 • 56 minutes, 56 seconds
#209 - Andrew Schulz, NoiseAware - A Lot Of Our Competitive Advantage Is How We Quantify Sound
In today’s episode we welcome our guest, Andrew Schulz, co-founder and CEO of NoiseAware.
We discuss the miserable experience that led to the fresh idea behind NoiseAware’s smart sensor and noise-monitoring technology. We get into the product, use case, and the idea that customers can now have hard data on noise levels at their property, empowering them to be proactive if noise is out of hand, or defend against false noise complaints.
We talk about building the company out of Dallas and access to resources the team has had along the way, and we even dive into growth potential for the company as they set sights on international markets.
Don’t miss this and more in episode 209.
4/6/2020 • 32 minutes, 17 seconds
#208 - How Long Can You Handle Underperforming?
Episode 208 is a Mebisode. Meb reads a recent piece that highlights the data and reality of market drawdowns, underperformance, and some statistics that illustrate that investors may not be prepared to face the reality of how long underperformance can last.
Tune in for this and more in episode 208, including how Meb frames his market expectations.
4/1/2020 • 17 minutes, 21 seconds
#207 - Jeremy Yamaguchi, Lawn Love - It’s…One Of The Last Markets In The US…That Has Been…Resistant To Technology
In episode 207, we welcome our guest, Jeremy Yamaguchi, founder of Lawn Love. We kick off the episode by getting into Jeremy’s background as a son of missionaries, starting his first company at the age of 16, and the curious mind and discerning eye for opportunity that has taken him down the path of entrepreneurship.
We touch on the void he saw in lawn care and the technology that underpins the Lawn Love platform, driving value for customers and lawn care professionals. In his pursuit of building Lawn Love he started 3 companies only to kill 2 and run with the one that gained the most traction!
We also get into a massive personal stride he made in the realization that his startup competitors that seemed to have easy access to networks, capital, and press, didn’t actually have a silver bullet. His takeaway? There isn’t a substitute for the hard work that it takes to build a company.
Don’t miss episode 207 and the details on how Jeremy built this company.
3/25/2020 • 50 minutes, 13 seconds
#206 - Meb’s take on Investment Plans, Building and Maintaining Wealth, How Meb Invests, and Investing in the time of Corona
Episode 206 is a Mebisode. Meb reads a few of his recently penned pieces. He covers the importance of being prepared for market turbulence with an investment plan. He then walks through some core ideas for building and maintaining wealth. He ties these ideas together with a chat on how he invests his own money. He concludes with some thoughts on investing in the time of the Coronavirus.
If the markets have you concerned, make sure you don’t miss what Meb has to share to help you stay on track in episode 206.
3/18/2020 • 1 hour, 28 minutes, 8 seconds
#205 - Derren Geiger, Cornerstone Acquisition and Management - E&P Companies Are Doing Whatever They Can To Achieve Cash Flow Neutrality
In episode 205, Meb talks with Cornerstone Acquisition and Management CEO and Portfolio Manager, Derren Geiger. Meb and Derren cover Caritas Funds’ process for investing in onshore US oil & gas mineral rights and royalty interests.
They get into sourcing opportunities, some detail on the royalty model, the role hedging plays in managing risk, and the balance of commodity exposure in the portfolio.
As the conversation winds down, the pair walk through an actual example of how an acquisition played out, as well as Derren’s thoughts on the energy market.
All this and more in episode 205, including Derren’s most memorable investment.
3/11/2020 • 43 minutes, 29 seconds
#204 - Doug Hapeman and Matt Milford, Foresight Mental Health - We Have This Vision Of Recreating Mental Healthcare With Technology To Make People Happier and Healthier
In episode 204, Meb talks with Foresight Mental Health co-founders Doug Hapeman and Matt Milford. They discuss Foresight’s origin story and the vision Doug and Matt had to apply technology to radically improve mental healthcare.
They get into the lack of technology adoption by psychiatrists that exists today, and what it took to build a fully integrated model from scratch to serve patients and healthcare providers.
The group even covers the patient and healthcare provider experience with Foresight and using data to drive a new standard of care.
All this and more in episode 204, including Doug and Matt’s most memorable investment.
3/4/2020 • 35 minutes, 34 seconds
#203 - Sanchal Ranjan, ZiffyHomes - We Give You A Different Lifestyle To Work And Play
In episode 203, Meb talks with ZiffyHomes co-founder and CEO, Sanchal Ranjan. Meb and Sanchal discuss the story behind ZiffyHomes and how Sanchal and his co-founder are finding an edge in technology to offer a more uniform platform to improve home rental utilization and experience.
The pair touch on the current state of the Indian home rental market and the opportunity ZiffyHomes is addressing right now.
They get into competition and what it takes to grow in this industry. While this company is experiencing incredible growth, we walk through some challenges the team has faced and even some lessons learned along the way.
All this and more in episode 203, including Sanchal’s Y Combinator journey.
2/26/2020 • 47 minutes, 11 seconds
#202 - Joe Davis, Vanguard - The Idea Multiplier…We Believe It’s One Of The First Leading Indicators Of Commercial Innovation
In episode 202, Meb talks with Vanguard’s global chief economist and the global head of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, Joe Davis.
Meb and Joe get into the broad framework of Vanguard’s research, and some depth on the thinking and process involved. They walk through some current thoughts on a few different asset classes and the Vanguard Capital Markets Model.
The pair cover Vanguard’s most recent outlook, and their projections that offer an average return differential for non-US equities of roughly 3-4% vs. US equities.
Stay tuned to the end of this great conversation as Joe discusses the concept of the “Idea multiplier,” a fresh way of thinking about the evolution of knowledge and innovation.
All this and more in episode 202, including Joe’s most memorable investment.
2/19/2020 • 1 hour, 25 minutes, 29 seconds
#201 - The Case For Global Investing
Episode 201 is a Mebisode. In this episode, you’ll hear Meb discuss his favorite research pieces on international investing from 2019. He covers diversification through the lens of company revenue exposure, international stock dividend yields, and valuations.
All of this and more in episode 201, including some of Meb’s favorite investment resources.
2/12/2020 • 46 minutes, 19 seconds
#200 - Radio Show - Decade End Returns and Valuations…Process vs. Performance…VC Power Laws
Episode 200 has a radio show format. We cover a variety of topics, including:
Coronavirus – how investors should be thinking about shocks
CalPERS firing managers
Venture capital and power laws
Knowing what you own
There’s this and plenty more in episode 200.
2/5/2020 • 53 minutes, 26 seconds
#199 - Peter Livingston, Unpopular Ventures - All My Best Investments Were The Ones I Couldn’t Get Anyone Else To Do
In episode 199 we welcome our guest, Peter Livingston. Peter and Meb spend some time on Peter’s background and his experience as an engineer and a founder.
They then dive into venture capital investing and Peter’s thoughts on the corporate VC model. That leads right into Peter’s early investment experience in private companies and trying to raise a fund of his own.
Peter explains that trying to raise a fund led him to a unique place and a perspective on the traditional VC model that ultimately was the origin behind his firm, Unpopular Ventures. He spends time explaining why he feels the syndicate model is superior to the VC model, and the rapid pace of growth he’s experienced since launch.
Meb then asks Peter to get into some of the investments he’s made.
As the conversation winds down, Peter touches on his thoughts for the future.
All this and more in episode 199.
1/29/2020 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 45 seconds
#198 - Rabi Gupta and Satwick Saxena, EvaBot - EvaBot Is…A Gifting Assistant…It Makes It Easy For Businesses to Send Gifts
In episode 198 we welcome our guests, Rabi Gupta and Satwick Saxena. Rabi and Satwick walk through the early days of EvaBot and how the pair started the company accidentally as a way to improve their networking efforts in Silicon Valley. As a result of some feedback, they launched their company, EvaBot.
They discuss building the product from an idea, and deciding that a bot was the solution that would make the product work paired with some additional automation in their operations.
Meb follows with some questions on EvaBot’s target market. Rabi and Satwick discuss traction in the real estate and mortgage industries, but feel there are other verticals that offer use cases for EvaBot.
The conversation then transitions into the company’s experience with funding. The pair get into their seed round in 2017 and the growth they experienced after that round which served as validation of product market fit.
As the conversation winds down, Rabi and Satwick dive into the process behind sourcing all of the great gift products they offer.
All this and more in episode 198, including a can’t miss offer at the end of the episode from Rabi and Satwick.
1/22/2020 • 54 minutes, 33 seconds
#197 - Rick Rule, Global Resource Investments - In Resources You Are Either A Contrarian Or You Are Going To Be A Victim
In episode 197 we welcome our guest, Rick Rule. Rick and Meb start with Rick’s background in natural resource investing and Rick getting into his outlook for resources and precious metals.
Meb and Rick dive into some of the forces that he sees influencing gold and precious metals prices including negative yielding sovereign bonds, US budget deficits, and potential reversion to the mean for precious metals investing market share.
Rick then covers some interesting statistics Sprott has observed in investor interest in natural resource investing.
The conversation then shifts to commodities and natural resources more broadly. Rick talks oil and uranium followed by some practical thoughts on portfolio implementation.
All this and more in episode 197, including Rick’s most memorable investment.
1/15/2020 • 57 minutes, 52 seconds
#196 - Minnie Ingersoll, TenOneTen - I Do Believe That Innovation In Our Country Is The Huge Bright Spot
In episode 196 we welcome our guest, Minnie Ingersoll. Minnie and Meb start the conversation by getting into venture capital investing and the nature of investing in early startup companies focused on software and data. They get into Minnie’s firm, TenOneTen Ventures and some of what goes into the process of evaluating potential investments.
Minnie covers some companies she and her team are particularly excited about. The conversation then shifts to discussing the VC presence and growth in LA.
Minnie then moves on to discussing more about the investing process, covering some of the criteria the TenOneTen team think is important to see in founders they are working with, including, the entrepreneur being aligned with the belief that there’s a billion-dollar outcome.
All this and more in episode 196, including Minnie’s experience as a co-founder and her most memorable investment.
1/8/2020 • 1 hour, 19 minutes, 30 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Selected Writing from Prominent Investors and Authors
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Contributors: Jack Vogel, Paul Novell, Mike Philbrick, Rob Arnott, Aswath Damodaran, Corey Hoffstein, Bob Seawright, Wes Gray, Justin J. Carbonneau, Gary Antonacci, Larry Swedroe, Scott Bell, Jack Forehand, Ray Micaletti, Todd Tresidder, Ben Johnson, and Frazer Rice.
1/6/2020 • 5 hours, 40 minutes, 6 seconds
#195 - Top Podcasts 2019 - Replay: Bill Smead, Cam Harvey, Raoul Pal
Episode 195 is a replay of The Meb Faber Show’s top podcasts of 2019. Guests include Bill Smead, Cam Harvey, and Raoul Pal
Hear Bill Smead discuss his firm’s value investing process, his view of the investing landscape, and his thoughts about millennials being in position to drive the economy in the future.
Next, dig into Cam Harvey’s 1986 dissertation, his research on inverted yield curves and what that means for economic growth and various asset classes, and some thoughts on cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.
Finally, listen to Raoul Pal and his take on global growth, where he thinks investment opportunity lies, his discussion of “The Doom Loop,” and risks to the global economy.
All this and more in our replay of the top podcasts of 2019.
1/1/2020 • 3 hours, 56 minutes, 47 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Frazer Rice, Calamos Wealth Management – Preparing For The Hurricane Of Wealth
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Frazer take over this special episode.
12/30/2019 • 19 minutes, 41 seconds
#194 - Doug McCormick, HCI Equity Partners - I Generally Believe People Underestimate The Duration Of The Time That They Will Be Invested
In episode 194 Meb and Doug kick off the conversation about thinking about a family as a business. Doug discusses the idea that people effectively have two businesses, selling labor in the marketplace, and converting income into financial assets. Doug expands on that by covering the family CFO framework, and that the job of the family CFO is much like a corporate CFO in that they must manage risk and liquidity with the family’s balance sheet. The pair also get into entrepreneurship and thinking about the role entrepreneurship can play in wealth generation.
Meb and Doug then get into common mistakes people make, such as underappreciation of a long horizon. They then transition into approaching conversations about wealth with Family, starting with acknowledgement that wealth without management, values, and education can be a liability.
As the conversation winds down, Meb and Doug cover some ground about Doug’s day job as a private equity investor and some best practices for private equity allocators.
All this and more in episode 194, including Doug’s most memorable investment.
12/25/2019 • 52 minutes, 41 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Wes Gray, Alpha Architect – Academic Factor Portfolios are Extremely Painful. Unless you are an Alien.
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Wes take over this special episode.
12/23/2019 • 15 minutes, 47 seconds
#193 - Chris Brightman - Here We Are With Emerging Markets Again Trading At A Shiller PE Multiple Less Than Half Of The US Stock Market
In episode 193 we welcome our guest, Chris Brightman. Meb and Chris start the conversation with an evolution of economic and monetary theory over the past decades, and some detail behind Modern Monetary Theory. Chris then expands on inflation, the idea that high inflation is associated with volatile inflation, as well as some ways to protect from high inflation.
The pair then get into Research Affiliates’ forward looking asset class return expectations, including, the expectation of a 3.5% real return for the US stock market before any adjustments to valuations and the reality of low and even negative return prospects from fixed income. Chris talks about emerging markets as a potential bright spot.
As the conversation winds down, Chris reveals some ways investors can think about implementing the ideas he discusses in the episode, including the literature that shows investors engage in performance chasing, and they’d be far better off taking a buy-and-hold approach to a diversified set of passive instruments.
All this and more in episode 193, including a couple of Chris’s most memorable investments.
12/18/2019 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 49 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Ben Johnson – When Markets Are Tough, Don't Look
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Ben take over this special episode.
12/16/2019 • 9 minutes, 55 seconds
#192 - Tim Hayes - The Base Case Is We’re Still In The Same Secular Bull Market That We’ve Been In Since 2009
In episode 192 we welcome our guest, Tim Hayes. Tim and Meb kick off the conversation with an overview of the data driven Ned Davis research process and how the team gains an understanding of what is going on the market.
Meb then asks Tim to expand on his current thoughts on the market. Tim covers the potential tactical opportunity in the market and the base case for the US stock market, that it’s in the same secular bull market it’s been in since 2009. He also notes that there is a risk to the bond market and that it’s late in the secular game.
The conversation then shifts to discussion about negative yielding bonds. Meb and Tim then touch on the worries Tim is seeing from institutional investors.
As the conversation winds down, Tim covers his belief that it is critical to be aware, and constantly watch what relationships are changing in markets to gauge what is relevant.
All this and more in episode 192.
12/11/2019 • 58 minutes, 28 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Todd Tresidder – Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere – How To Protect Yourself
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Todd take over this special episode.
12/9/2019 • 36 minutes, 32 seconds
#191 - Simon Hallett - Wherever We Can, We’ve Added Something That’s Based Upon Behavioral Finance
In episode 191, we welcome our guest, Simon Hallett. Simon and Meb start off the conversation with a run-down of Simon’s firm, Harding Loevner, cover its quality growth investment approach as well as its long-term focus. Simon gives some insights into “short-termism” and what it takes and the incentives in place to keep everyone at Harding Loevner focused on long-term investing.
Simon walks through the investment framework at Harding Loevner in detail. From a high level, they care about growth, quality, and price and beyond that, Simon walks through the details and what it looks like as ideas work their way through the process.
Next, Simon and Meb get into skill vs. luck. Simon emphasizes the role process plays in skill vs. luck, and the post-investment review he and his team go through to analyze the role skill vs. luck played in the outcome of a position.
As the conversation winds down, Simon and Meb touch on behavioral finance, and Simon discusses introducing behavioral aspects to the investment process wherever they can. He mentions he think there is a behavioral edge in any market.
All this and more in episode 191, including a discussion about Simon’s football club and his most memorable investment.
12/4/2019 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 15 seconds
#190 - Radio Show: Buying Stocks At All Time Highs…Fund Manager Sentiment…Year End Questions for Advisors and Brokers
Episode 190 has a radio show format. We cover a variety of topics, including:
Buying stocks at all-time highs
2010 Fund Manager of the Decade
Jim Simons
Year-end questions for advisors and brokers
There’s this and plenty more in episode 190.
12/2/2019 • 43 minutes, 44 seconds
#189 - John Parise - 70% Of Wealth Is Lost In The 3rd Generation
In Episode 189 we welcome our guest, John Parise. John and Meb kick off the conversation with the idea of the family CFO and wealth planning. As John gained experience in financial planning, he investigated the family office model, and he consistently saw a lack of planning. That eventually led him to the foundations that helped him eventually form his firm, Copper Beech.
Meb and John then cover to the process of what planning looks like at Copper Beech. John describes the interview, discovery process, and the types of conversations the firm has with families. They then get into some examples of the mechanics of what the planning process really looks like, and some methods to pay zero estate tax.
The pair then shift to talking about teaching young generations to handle wealth.
As the conversation winds down, John covers some of the major items people can consider to improve their planning outcomes.
All this and more, in episode 189 including John’s most memorable investment.
11/27/2019 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 35 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Ray Micaletti – The Smart Money Indicator: A New Risk Management Tool
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Ray take over this special episode.
11/25/2019 • 43 minutes, 21 seconds
#188 - Andreas Clenow - Trend Following Is…About Taking A Lot of Bets On A Very Large Number Of Markets
In episode 188 we welcome our guest, Andreas Clenow. Meb and Andreas start the conversation with a hat on what hooked Andreas on trend following, and his book, Following the Trend.
Andreas discusses running trend following as a portfolio strategy, not something that is optimal to run on a single market. He talks about some basic fundamentals of trend following, including the premise that it’s about taking a lot of bets on a large number of markets independently.
Meb then asks Andreas to get into some detail about risk management and position sizing. Andreas defines the way he thinks about risk, and goes back and forth with Meb about the reality of return expectations and compounding. Meb follows by asking what has changed with his approach over the years. Andreas responds with the idea of realizing it’s about strategy and business, and the business has changed a lot.
The conversation transitions into how trend following can fit into an investment portfolio. Andreas offers that the strategy can serve as a core building block of a larger portfolio. He talks about some of the environments where trend following has done particularly well, and the challenge with diversification in equities.
As the conversation winds down, Meb asks about Andreas’ new book, Trading Evolved: Anyone can Build Killer Trading Strategies in Python. Andreas describes the book as a guide for readers to build backtests and strategies in the programming language, Python.
All this and more in episode 188, including Andreas’s most memorable investment.
11/20/2019 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 50 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Jack Forehand – The Case Against Value Stocks
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Jack take over this special episode.
11/18/2019 • 8 minutes, 33 seconds
#187 - Kevin Carter - The Thing That’s Emerging Are The People, It’s All About The Consumer
In episode 187 we welcome our guest, Kevin Carter. Meb and Kevin start the conversation with some background on Kevin’s career, getting to know Burton Malkiel, and launching EMQQ.
Kevin offers some of his thoughts on investing in China, including his initial thoughts about the prominence of state owned enterprises. Kevin mentions that a key component to investing in emerging markets is that it’s about the consumer. He notes that emerging and frontier markets are 85% of the world’s people and almost 90% of the people under the age of 30, the GDP of those people are still growing twice as fast as the rest of the world, and their incomes are growing.
Kevin discusses that once he figured out that the indexes that were available to invest in these markets were allocated relatively heavily to the legacy, inefficient, state owned enterprise portion of economies, he got to work on building indexes that were more targeted to capture emerging market growth.
Meb and Kevin then discuss the reality of emerging market allocations for most investors today, and talk about the current weights of emerging market indexes and the implications for investors.
Kevin gets into launching and running EMQQ, and how the index is constructed. He follows with a discussion on emerging market internet company valuations and the current pace of revenue growth.
Meb then poses what he thinks is some of the most common “pushback” he hears about why people can’t invest in China. Kevin addresses some of the arguments he hears for not investing in China, including made up numbers and communism and explains why he doesn’t think there is a lot of merit to those arguments.
As the conversation winds down, Kevin covers his thoughts on India, which he thinks is a particularly interesting opportunity from the standpoint of population size and growth.
All this and more in episode 187, including Kevin’s most memorable investment.
11/13/2019 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 6 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Scott Bell – The Asset of Gratitude
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Scott take over this special episode.
11/11/2019 • 11 minutes, 21 seconds
#186 - Carter Malloy - I Looked At Farmland And Realized…It’s Wildly Inefficient
In episode 186 we welcome our guest, Carter Malloy. Meb kicks off the conversation with Carter’s background in finance and growing up in a farming family. When conducting research on the asset class. He saw attractive returns historically, but there wasn’t a great way for most people to invest in it. That insight spurred the idea for AcreTrader.
As Meb and Carter dig a little deeper into farmland, they discuss the return drivers, yield and asset appreciation, and the imbalance of demand vs. supply as a driver of returns.
Meb then asks Carter to get into the cycles of farmland investing. Carter covers leverage and cycles. The pair explore the Macro themes that have been in play over the last few years. Carter comments that it has been tough for farmers, and commodity prices have been low. He clarifies that if you separate the farmer from the land owner, the land owner has continued to do great.
The pair then get into the ideas behind Carter’s firm, AcreTrader. Carter walks through the inefficient nature of farmland investing, the platform, and the process AcreTrader goes through to bring investment opportunities to market as well as the ultimate vision for the platform.
Next, Meb and Carter also get into some examples of additional opportunities for farmland property including potential income opportunities like wind farms, solar farms, and mining that may be available to some properties.
As the conversation winds down, Carter lays out his thoughts on how farmland fits with investment portfolios and highlights the role it can play from a wealth preservation standpoint as a noncorrelated asset class in addition to providing protection from inflation.
All this and more in episode 186.
11/6/2019 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 44 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Larry Swedroe – Investment Strategy in an Uncertain World
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Larry take over this special episode.
11/4/2019 • 29 minutes, 32 seconds
#185 - Ben Claremon - Value Investing Will Always Have A Place
In episode 185 we welcome our guest, Ben Claremon. Ben and Meb start the conversation with some background on the blog Ben started in school, The Inoculated Investor. From there, the pair move on to discuss Cove Street and the investment process.
Ben gets into investing, and what value investing means to Cove Street Capital, bifurcated between Warren Buffett style investing and Benjamin Graham style investing. Next, Ben discusses the investment and portfolio construction process he and the team undergo at Cove Street, including sell discipline applied to fund positions.
Ben and Meb get into the outlook for the investment landscape, covering Value investing to opportunities in China, as well as the auto industry. He also discusses some things to avoid.
Ben then gets into the importance of proxy statements, and the role corporate governance plays in the investment process.
As the conversation winds down, Meb and Ben get into the bogeyman of buybacks and talk about the idea that the focus should instead be on the short-term nature of the earnings cycle.
All this and more in episode 185, including Ben’s most memorable investment.
10/30/2019 • 1 hour, 20 minutes, 29 seconds
#184 - You Could Have Missed...
Episode 184 is a Meb Short. In this episode, you’ll hear Meb discuss the CAPE ratio, flawed logic behind the conclusion that “CAPE doesn’t work,” probabilistic investing, and a global perspective on CAPE.
All this and more in episode 184.
10/28/2019 • 19 minutes, 1 second
#183 - Ben Inker - The Problem With Good Returns In The Near Term Is They Have To Be Paid Back Sometime
In episode 183 we welcome our guest, Ben Inker. Ben and Meb start the conversation with a chat about Ben’s thoughts on markets which include the overriding theme that non-us markets are currently presenting opportunity for investors.
Next, Meb asks Ben to get into his thoughts on current valuations and Ben walks through some ideas on high valuations for US stocks and reduced forward looking returns. On the subject of valuations, the pair then discusses interest rates and monetary policy. Ben follows that with an interesting paper he wrote that explored how high profitability has skewed toward large capitalization companies.
Ben expands on his thinking about valuations and markets outside the US, the past decade being the worst for value stocks, and being excited about opportunities like emerging market value stocks. He goes further in his discussion by getting into a concept he credits Robert Shiller with, clairvoyant fair value of a stock market, and shares that two pieces of information are critical, the starting valuation of the markets, and the return on capital.
As the conversation winds down, Ben and Meb discuss GMO’s benchmark free allocation strategy, and investing with the goal of making absolute money and worrying about absolute risk.
All this and more in episode 183, including Ben’s thoughts on hedging currency risk and his most memorable investment.
10/23/2019 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 22 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Gary Antonacci – Extended Backtest of Global Equities Momentum
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Gary take over this special episode.
10/21/2019 • 13 minutes, 56 seconds
#182 - Larry Hite - I Want To Be In A Position Where Something Great Can Happen…If I Don’t Get That, I Don’t Want To Play
In episode 182 we welcome our guest, Larry Hite. Larry and Meb start off the conversation with Larry’s origin as a trend follower, and the parallels to trend following and life. Larry follows with personal challenges he overcame in life, and how he found a path to success through a life lesson, weeding out what he couldn’t do, and include the things that gave him a lot of enjoyment and potentially a lot of money (or both).
Next, Larry gets into his start in investing, combing through hundreds of years of data and finding that cutting losses and letting winners run really works. He then transitions into some underlying foundations about how he thinks about trading, including, putting the odds in your favor by creating asymmetrical bets.
Meb then talks with Larry about founding Mint, one of the earliest systematic CTAs, and was the first hedge fund to raise over $1 billion.
As the conversation winds down, Larry talks about systematic rules, trend following, and making an array of bets.
All this and more in episode 182, including concluding thoughts on challenges and resiliency, and Larry’s most memorable investment.
10/16/2019 • 1 hour, 24 seconds
#181 - Radio Show: Zero Trading Commissions…Valuations…And Trend Following
Episode 181 has a radio show format. We cover a variety of topics, including the new ETF rule:
Major brokerage firms dropping ETF trading commissions to $0
New ETF rule
Market valuation
Trend following
Investment Process
There’s this and plenty more in episode 181.
10/14/2019 • 37 minutes, 24 seconds
#180 - Rodrigo Gordillo - “This Craftsmanship Perspective Is About Identifying The Difference Between Complex Versus Robust”
In episode 180 we welcome back our guest, Rodrigo Gordillo. Meb and Rodrigo start the conversation with a walk through Rodrigo’s background and his experience growing up in Peru. Rodrigo then gets into his framework for thinking about investing and how that evolved into what he and his team is doing at ReSolve.
Rodrigo then spends some time on the knowledge gained by studying and backtesting investment strategies. He stresses the use of “ensembles” rather than isolating single parameters for more robust investment processes.
Meb shifts the conversation and asks Rodrigo to talk about ReSolve’s machine learning project. Rodrigo discusses applying machine learning to finance, and how it is a tool, and another element of the ReSolve team’s process.
Meb and Rodrigo chat about risk parity, and some of the common misunderstandings that exist, as well as the basic functions of how the strategy works.
As the conversation winds down, Rodrigo gets into some research projects on the horizon for ReSolve.
All this and more in episode 180.
10/9/2019 • 1 hour, 17 minutes, 26 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Justin J. Carbonneau – 10 Reasons Why It’s Tough to be a True “Intelligent Investor”
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Justin take over this special episode.
10/7/2019 • 12 minutes, 24 seconds
#179 - Dan Ferris - What We Do In The Markets, It’s An Unnatural Act…You’ve Got To Have Some Discipline
In episode 179 we welcome our guest, Dan Ferris. Meb begins with a discussion of Dan’s background as a guitarist, and his path into finance.
Dan then provides a high level view of his framework for how he thinks about investing. He discusses bottom-up value investing, and developing a powerful respect for the effect of cycles. When it came to evaluating companies, he took issue with traditional DCF analysis, and focused more on using DCF as a tool to provide guide posts to probabilities of various outcomes.
Next, Meb asks Dan to walk through the Extreme Value portfolio. Dan discusses there are 17 names with average days held of 1100, reflecting his thinking about equity as “permanent capital.” He covers names like Altius Minerals, Starbucks, and Dollar General. Dan also touches on his thinking behind the sell decision.
As the conversation winds down, Dan discusses some of the most influential books and passages he has read on investing: Chapter 20 of the Intelligent Investor, The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks, The Elements of Investing by Ellis and Malkiel, and more.
Don’t miss episode 179.
10/2/2019 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 7 seconds
#178 - Nobody Wants To Invest In Your Sh*t
Episode 178 is a Meb Short. In this episode, you’ll hear Meb discuss the transactional nature of investing, finding an investment approach that works, and deploying an objective framework to govern removal investments and considering new ones.
9/30/2019 • 14 minutes, 20 seconds
#177 - Alex Rubalcava - We Want To Help Build Companies That Are Solving Hard Problems That Matter
In episode 177, we welcome back our guest, Alex Rubalcava. Alex and Meb start the conversation by discussing startup company fundraising, and how it has gotten more difficult to attract top-tier VC firms.
The two then get into Alex’s firm, the track to seeing over 1500 startups this year, the process of evaluating them, and doing meaningful work on about 75 per year.
Alex shares his thoughts about the current IPO market, and some reasons he thinks it’s not in a bubble right now. Meb then asks about the SaaS business model, and how the world has changed. Alex weighs in with some comments and some ways he thinks about looking at these types of companies.
Next, Alex gives a brief review of QSBS rules, and the potential tax benefits available to investors.
The conversation shifts into the current deal environment, and competing for allocations for deals. Alex provides an example of seeing an opportunity and fighting for an allocation. He also describes how his initial optimism about an investment correlates with the results in ensuing years.
Meb then asks Alex about AI and the opportunity there. Alex describes his firm’s bullishness on AI, and why he thinks AI isn’t going to take over as many jobs as we think it will right now. Alex then gets into AI deployment doing one of four things; segmentation, optimization, anomaly detection, and recognizing objects. Commercial AI systems are being built to automate a process or make a prediction about the future.
As the conversation winds down, Alex describes portfolio investments deploying AI to bring new approaches and ideas to their respective industries.
All this and more in episode 177, including what the future looks like for Alex.
9/25/2019 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 32 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Wes Gray – Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value and Momentum Dead?
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Wes take over this special episode.
9/23/2019 • 29 minutes, 36 seconds
#176 - Adam Tkaczuk - We Think There Is About A 3% Per Year Tax Benefit To This
In episode 176, we welcome our guest, Adam Tkaczuk. Adam and Meb kick off the episode with an overview of opportunity zones.
Meb then asks about the best way to source investments in OZs. Adam provides some background, resources, and some wisdom that it is important to look closely at fees and be careful about diligence into OZ investments. He notes that there are all types of projects available, not just real estate, and that location can have a huge impact.
Meb asks Adam about location based sources of capital. Adam describes examples of what that is and some examples of how business can use this practice to find money to fund business projects.
Adam then gets into the role he plays with small business owners in helping them navigate tax credits, find project funding, and maximize after-tax income. He talks about tax and investment strategies, and business sale tactics such as considering OZs and a structured sale.
Next, Adam talks about some case studies on helping clients find tax credits.
As the conversation winds down, Meb asks Adam to get into the general flow of how he works with clients.
All this and more in Episode 176, included some great resources and Adam’s most memorable investment.
9/18/2019 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 31 seconds
#175 - The Biggest Valuation Spread In 40 Years?
Episode 175 is a Meb Short. In this episode, you’ll hear Meb discuss a key development to be aware of in global markets, the valuation spread between the most and least expensive markets around the world. Meb explains why it is important to study history before assuming the U.S. deserves a valuation premium to the rest of the world, what global equity valuations look like, and the reality of investor home-bias.
All this and more in episode 175.
9/16/2019 • 8 minutes, 36 seconds
#174 - Amlan Roy - Monetary Policy is Very Ineffective In A World Where We Are Getting Very Old
In episode 174, we welcome our guest, Amlan Roy. Amlan and Meb start the conversation off with a discussion on demographics, why we need to understand them, and the idea that monetary policy is relatively ineffective in the demographic environment the world faces today.
Amlan then lays out some prescriptions for some of the issues he’s seeing today, including, the idea of doing away with traditional retirement ages, more fairness toward women, and updated immigration policies.
Meb and Amlan then get into negative yielding interest rates, the impacts they have on investors, and how we should be thinking about economic and finance theory. He also hits on falling productivity growth, and a trying to solve that issue in China, India, and the rest of the world by bringing more young people and women into the workforce.
Amlan then shifts to some additional thoughts on growth, and his idea of the “Demographic Dividend.”
Don’t miss all of this and more in episode 174, including some of Amlan’s most memorable and important market calls.
9/11/2019 • 58 minutes, 22 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Bob Seawright – Dear Future Me
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Bob take over this special episode.
9/9/2019 • 10 minutes, 57 seconds
#173 - Tom Williams - I Want To Be That First Call In The Darkest Of Days
In episode 173, we welcome our guest, Tom Williams. Tom and Meb get right into Tom’s background, moving to the Bay Area alone, and finding a job at the age of 15. He then spends some time on building BetterCompany, a mobile app designed to bring anonymity to sharing about work, and later, pivoting to enterprise.
Meb then asks about the beginning of Tom’s angel investing career. Tom walks through the progression of angel investing with a partner to launching his own fund, and how important it is to build a network.
Next, the pair dive into AngelList, syndicates, and how easy it has become to invest in startups. Tom dives further into venture, with an example of a fallacy that it is a zero-sum game. He describes technology driven disruption resulting in a democratization process where more and more companies taking their share of the market as a result.
Meb then asks Tom to explain his thought process on investing. Tom emphasizes his focus on macro. He then discusses a theme he’s been investing in, America losing its supremacy and how to fix that. He shares that he finds ethically run technology companies that are trying to “ladder up” the “trapped class” in America are looking very interesting.
Tom then spends some time talking about some portfolio investments. He walks through Grove Collaborative, already America’s largest independent brand for home and personal care, and the clear vision that the co-founder and CEO explained to him. Tom describes the vision being so obvious, he just had to go with it. He follows up with LogDNA, and Jumbotail.
As the conversation winds down, Tom reveals his plans for the future, including the idea of backing new angel investors.
All this and much more in episode 173, including Tom’s philanthropic work and his most memorable investment.
9/4/2019 • 1 hour, 49 minutes, 15 seconds
#172 - Cam Harvey - This is a Time of Considerable Risk of a Drawdown
In episode 172, we welcome our guest, professor Cam Harvey. Meb and professor Harvey begin the conversation with professor Harvey’s 1986 dissertation on the yield curve, and his finding that when the yield curve inverts, it precedes a recession. His indicator has yet to provide a false signal. He goes on to explain the model, what it really tells us, and the implications as we move late into the summer of 2019.
Professor Harvey then gets into what an inverted yield curve means for growth, and a study he did that describes the performance of various asset classes before and after yield curve inversions.
He follows up with some background on the Duke CFO survey, and the predictive power it has in foreshadowing recession. As of a recent observation, 85% of respondents believe a recession will begin in 2020 or 2021.
The conversation shifts, and professor Harvey gets into some thoughts on cryptocurrency, and the research that went into the creation of his course on Blockchain.
Next, professor Harvey explains blunders in factor investing, from data mining, to investors not taking correlation of factors into consideration.
As the conversation winds down, professor Harvey discusses what he’s thinking about in his research these days, and disruptions he sees coming in finance.
All this and more in episode 172, including professor Harvey’s most memorable investment.
8/28/2019 • 1 hour, 47 minutes, 58 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Corey Hoffstein – Factor Fimbulwinter
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Corey take over this special episode.
In episode 171, we welcome back our guest from episode 46, Raoul Pal. Raoul and Meb start with a chat about one of Raoul’s tweets, “Buy Bonds. Buy Dollars. Wear Diamonds.” Raoul explains that he sees global growth slowing after the longest recovery in history, as well as a number of countries in or nearing recession. That presents an opportunity in US Treasuries and Eurodollars.
The pair continue the conversation and get into how Raoul looks at the world. Raoul walks through his current view including his take on business cycle and yield curve indicators.
Meb then asks Raoul to explain “The Doom Loop.” Raoul lays out the idea that corporate debt has increased at an alarming rate since 2009 relative to household and government debt. He discusses what he’s seeing now, and the risk this poses to the global economy and asset prices.
As the conversation winds down, Raoul gets into some thoughts on gold and crypto.
All this and more in episode 171, including the greatest macro trade Raoul has ever seen.
8/21/2019 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 21 seconds
#170 - Bill Martin - On The Short Side, Position Sizing Is The Biggest Driver Of Success
In episode 170, we welcome our guest, Bill Martin. Bill and Meb start the conversation by diving into Bill’s early entrepreneurial experience running Ragingbull.com. He discusses the business, raising capital, and ultimately selling the business. After Ragingbull.com, he started a research business and InsiderScores before ultimately launching Raging Capital in 2006.
Meb asks Bill to get into Raging Capital. Bill offers that the long side is fairly concentrated, focused on the long-term and thinking strategically about the businesses. The short side is where he and his team focus on a diverse basket of businesses they consider overvalued with fundamentally challenged business models. Bill describes the nuances involved in position sizing on the short-side, and even illustrates with an example of Insys Therapeutics.
Next, Bill covers where he’s seeing opportunity in the world. He talks about a theme with MLPs, companies with exposure to Puerto Rico, and building products.
Meb then chats with Bill about his thoughts on China. Bill walks through his thinking on China broadly, and that the network he’s building in China is beneficial to investments he’s making in the portfolio.
As the conversation winds down, Bill walks through mechanics of short selling, and some names and themes he and his team are working on, including a number of firms in the public storage space, and some auto-related companies.
All this and more in episode 170, including Bill’s most memorable investment.
8/14/2019 • 1 hour, 45 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Aswath Damodaran – The Perils of Investing Idol Worship: The Kraft Heinz Lessons!
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Aswath take over this special episode.
8/12/2019 • 15 minutes, 53 seconds
#169 - Jeremy Jacobson - We Ended Up Saving Roughly 70% Of After-Tax Income For About 10 Years
In episode 169, we welcome our guest, Jeremy Jacobson. Jeremy begins with his backstory of being an engineer by trade, and after paying off his school loans and taking a vacation, he decided to apply his engineering framework to approach saving and investing. He walks through the plan that allowed him to retire at the age of 37.
Meb then asks Jeremy to expand on his investment portfolio. Jeremy explains what going through the GFC did to his portfolio, and the realization that it didn’t impact his day-to-day life at all, in relying on income from his portfolio.
Meb asks Jeremy to discuss geographic arbitrage, and what that looks like for he and his family. Jeremy walks through his annual budget, and how that is used as a guide to where they travel and how long they stay there.
Jeremy follows up with some ideas on how he carefully optimizes his taxes living abroad.
As the conversation winds down, Jeremy covers some travel hacks, and what is coming up for he and his family.
All this and more in episode 169, including Jeremy’s most memorable investment.
8/7/2019 • 45 minutes, 15 seconds
#168 - Brian Livingston - What’s True Is That We Have To Adapt To Modern Markets
In episode 168 we welcome Brian Livingston. Brian discusses his background and eventual transition into the world of investing out of a need to invest the money he had from the proceeds of selling his email newsletter.
Meb then asks Brian to get into what made sense to him when he started to look at investment opportunities. Brian discusses the benefit tilting portfolios to the momentum factor.
The pair then gets into the psychological difficulty of investing. Brian then goes on to talk about behavioral pain points, the evidence that people tend to liquidate after experiencing 20% downturns, and what people can do to improve the chances of avoiding pain points. He goes on to explain the mechanics of his process and “Muscular Portfolios.”
Next, Meb and Brian get into the issues of investors looking different than the “market.” Brian talks about the disruption it causes households and savers, and what he suggests people do to be successful.
As the conversation winds down, Brian and Meb discuss the context of one of Brian’s recent columns on the investment costs reflected in the bid/ask spread, as well as taxes and investing.
All this and more in episode 168, including thoughts on chasing performance, and Brian’s most memorable investment.
7/31/2019 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 50 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Rob Arnott – Yes. It’s a Bubble. So What?
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Rob take over this special episode.
7/29/2019 • 14 minutes, 43 seconds
#167 - The Cannabis Opportunity
Episode 167 is a Meb Short. In this episode, you’ll hear Meb discuss a fresh opportunity…The Cannabis Opportunity. Meb covers some of his thoughts on thematic investing and how we arrived at where we are today. He gets into the opportunity we have today, the large and loyal consumer base that exists for cannabis, and the parallels to alcohol and prohibition. He also gets into the makeup of the industry, what analysts are saying about growth, and some thoughts about portfolio implementation.
Don’t miss this special episode.
7/24/2019 • 18 minutes, 21 seconds
#166 - Radio Show - Greece and Russia Are Having Monster Years…Geographic Diversification…and Meb’s 401(k)
Episode 166 has a radio show format. We cover a variety of topics, even Meb’s investment portfolio:
Bonds, stocks, and valuation
A Tweet from Movement Capital showing the various phases on 10-Yr Treasury return. Annualized Real total return from 1-1926 to 9-1981 was flat. 9-1981 to 1-2013 annualized a real return of 6.67%. Those two periods aren’t captured in the total real return from 1-1926 to 9-1981 of 2.38%.
Negative yielding bonds, and the case for investing in them.
From strategies outlined in the Global Asset Allocation book: The average yearly spread between the best and worst performing strategies was 18%. From 1973-2018, the spread between the best and worst performers was 2%.
Emerging and foreign developed stock markets remain inexpensive relative to US stocks.
There’s this and plenty more in episode 166.
7/24/2019 • 47 minutes, 54 seconds
#165 - Chris Mayer - I Do Think The Biggest Challenge…Is Keeping It, Holding On To It
In episode 165, we welcome our guest, Chris Mayer. Meb starts off asking Chris about his background, then shifts to the subject of 100 baggers. Chris provides insight into his work on analyzing companies that have returned 100-to-1. He discusses the broad characteristics of 100 baggers, and the patience required to get through the challenging journey of the roughly 20 years he expects it to take for those kinds of companies to earn that return.
Next, Chris talks about the Bonner family, the founding of Woodlock House Family Capital, and the fund he’s running.
Meb then asks Chris to walk through his world view. Chris talks about resisting trying to create some type of narrative, and picking through opportunities as they come. He discusses his current regional exposure, as well as a few names he’s written about recently and the opportunities he’s seeing there.
Chris then expands on his process, and how he doesn’t rely on screens as much as a watchlist he has built and his own research.
As the conversation winds down, Chris covers transparency, the process of writing, and how it has forced him to organize his thoughts.
Hear all this and more in episode 165, including some recommended resources, and Chris’s most memorable investment.
7/17/2019 • 50 minutes, 19 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Mike Philbrick – Diversification: What Most Novice Investors Miss About Trend Following
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Mike take over this special episode.
7/15/2019 • 23 minutes, 25 seconds
#164 - Jake Shapiro - It’s This Incredibly Engaging, Highly Effective Medium For Really Valuable Listening
In episode 164, we welcome our guest, Jake Shapiro. Jake begins by talking about his background, as well as his early days in public radio with NPR.
Meb asks Jake to expand on major moments for podcasts. Jake discusses the three waves of podcast growth from the 2003-2005 era where podcasts were first introduced, to when Apple incorporated podcasts on its platform and the introduction of the iPhone, to 2014 when both a confluence of trends and Apple breaking out podcasts from iTunes as a standalone app created an important inflection point for growth.
Meb asks Jake to get into the point when he started branching out into some new ideas. Jake explains the spinout of Matter Ventures which launched as an accelerator for early stage mission driven media companies.
Next, Jake walks through the frustration with monetization and the solution that ultimately spurred RadioPublic. As it was spun out to run as a startup, Jake left with it. He discusses the backing it had, and RadioPublic’s current focus.
As the conversation winds down, Jake talks about podcasts being under monetized. This was the inspiration for Podfund, a fund that set out to help podcasters with tools, expertise, as well as startup and growth capital.
Hear all this and more in episode 164.
7/10/2019 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 58 seconds
#163 - Albert Meyer - You’re Held In Higher Regard When You Don’t Dilute Shareholders
In episode 163, we welcome our guest, Albert Meyer. Albert begins with his backstory as an accountant and his time in academia with the ultimate transition to the world of investment management.
He then gets into his early days in the investing world and the work he did that eventually became public, to uncover the Ponzi scheme at the Foundation for New Era Philanthropy.
Meb then asks Albert what the path looked like when he decided to start his own firm, Bastiat Capital. Albert discusses the evolution from running a research service to having demand for him to manage assets.
Albert follows with Bastiat’s investment philosophy, where he dives into his process, looking at company business models, financial statements, corporate governance, and why he gets into the details of items like equity based compensation.
The conversation then turns to Bastiat’s portfolio, where Meb asks about portfolio positioning on a high level and where Albert sees opportunities today. Albert discusses positions in things like Microsoft, Google, and Apple, as well as some Chinese stocks. He also explains how through complicated accounting rules, it may actually be easier now than in the past to hide accounting shenanigans.
As the conversation winds down, Meb and Albert discuss Albert’s ideas on social security and African development.
Don’t miss jam-packed episode 163 full of this and more, including some of Albert’s incredible work uncovering some of the most famous financial frauds in modern history.
7/3/2019 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 13 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Paul Novell – When Models Fail
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Paul take over this special episode.
7/1/2019 • 15 minutes, 51 seconds
#162 - Chase Nobles - I Think Other Ag Industries Are Going To Be Playing Catch Up With What We’ve Learned Through Hemp and Cannabis
In episode 162, we welcome our guest, Chase Nobles. Chase kicks off the episode with some background, meeting his business partner, and how he went on to become the co-founder of Kush.com.
He then gets into starting Kush Tourism as a resource for cannabis tourists during the early days of cannabis legalization in the state of Washington, showing them facilities, the industry, and educating them about cannabis and the business behind it.
Next, Chase discusses the phase of the business where he and his co-founder realized the value of their business was the network they built. That spurred the idea for a wholesale marketplace.
That evolution of the business ultimately led to raising funds and meeting angel investor, Jason Calacanis. Chase goes on to describe the platform, and how it has grown into the marketplace we know today as Kush.com.
Meb then asks Chase to discuss the near-term hurdles for growth. Chase explains the backlog of applicants for the platform they are currently working through, and the work it takes to process them, as an example.
As the conversation winds down, Meb asks about challenges in the industry. Chase talks about the issues with payment processing, and the hope that things will change in order to ease the burden on that front.
All this and more, including Chase’s perspective of the greatest challenges of being a CEO, in episode 162.
6/26/2019 • 52 minutes, 55 seconds
#161 - Brandon Zick - In Row Crops You’re Generating A Lot Of Current Income
In episode 161, we welcome our guest, Brandon Zick. Brandon begins talking about his background in farming, and the current ownership structure he’s seeing in the farm business; land ownership and operations are a generation or two removed, which creates a robust rental market, and what makes investment possible.
Meb asks Brandon why investors should consider farmland in their investment portfolios. Brandon discusses the tangibility of owning a real asset such as farmland, the inflation hedge it provides, and its ability to diversify a portfolio.
Next, Brandon gets into the structural inefficiencies of the farmland market, and the risk/return profile it can provide investors.
Meb then asks about the ownership structure of their investments. Brandon talks about Ceres buying land from absentee land owners, their goal of partnering with top decile farmers, and putting more incentives in place for their tenants. He also mentions the farmer relationship and involving them in the underwriting process when looking at acquiring farms.
The conversation then turns to some history on the farmland bust phase in the 80s, and how leverage in the system contributed to that environment, but has also influenced how people acquire and own farmland today.
Brandon then goes on to explain why investors should embrace volatility, and how important it is as a land owner to have equity in land and cash in hand to be able to make acquisitions and grow.
As the conversation winds down, Meb asks Brandon about his thoughts on technology and it’s impacts in agriculture. Brandon talks about it being an exciting development, allowing farming to be less labor intensive and freeing farmers to make higher value, broad scale decisions.
Brandon wraps up with a discussion of Ceres’ fund, and what is on the horizon for Ceres.
All this and more in episode 161, including a discussion about what keeps Brandon up at night and what he’s particularly excited about, as well as his most memorable investment.
6/19/2019 • 1 hour, 29 minutes, 39 seconds
The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Jack Vogel – Trust The Process
Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.
This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.
You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.
Enough from me, let’s let Jack take over this special episode.
6/17/2019 • 35 minutes, 49 seconds
#160 - John Huber - Stock Prices Fluctuate Much More Than The Underlying Businesses
In episode 160, we welcome our guest, John Huber. John begins with some background on his approach to investing, and the framework he relies on at Saber Capital Management. John modeled his strategy after the early years of Warren Buffett’s partnerships. At Saber Capital Management, he focuses on good businesses that are poised to do well over time, and a tactical approach to portfolio management.
Next, Meb asks about the portfolio approach. John discusses his portfolio being concentrated and long only. He mentions he thinks diversification can be had in fewer positions than is commonly thought. He tends to have 5-6 stocks representing 80% - 90% of his capital.
The conversation then shifts into details about what he looks for when researching companies for potential investment. He talks about compounders, and how looking for them has changed since the days of Graham and Dodd to now, where the focus on intangible aspects is much more important.
John then gets deeper into his process. He reveals that he sees the investment landscape in two buckets. 1) companies increasing intrinsic value over time, and 2) companies eroding value over time. He tries to avoid companies that erode value over time. He notes that focusing on key variables can get him most of the way there, then he covers his final step, figuring out how much the company is worth, and how much to pay for it.
He discusses the degree in which large cap stocks fluctuate between their 52-week highs and lows, and his weighting to them in his portfolio. He then gets into a couple of cases with Apple and Facebook, followed by a description of his sell criteria.
All this and more in episode 160, including John’s most memorable investment.
6/12/2019 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 22 seconds
#159 - Ashby Monk - The Fee And Cost Issue Is Important Because It Is A Catalyst For Innovation
In episode 159, we welcome our guest, Ashby Monk. The episode kicks off with a discussion about the concept of saving planet earth and the important role that asset owner investors, the largest institutions in the world such as sovereign wealth funds that total approximately $100 trillion, now have.
Meb then asks Ashby to get into the models behind large institutional investors. Ashby discusses some history, and boils it down to what he thinks are the three functions that drive success: people, process, and information.
The conversation then gets into Ashby’s thoughts about insourcing vs. outsourcing. Ashby explains that both paths are viable, and the importance of starting with a rigorous understanding of what it costs to run investments internally vs. externally. Ashby notes that he thinks the institutions pursuing the highest quality inputs in terms of people, process, and information should receive recognition, independent of the model they’re running.
Meb asks about trends in the industry. On the good side, Ashby discusses the push on fees and costs, and the positive effect it has on institutional investors as a catalyst for innovation. Ashby then talks about how being green and good stewards of the environment has delivered outperformance.
The conversation then shifts into Long Term Stock Exchange (LTSE) and its mission.
As the chat winds down, Meb and Ashby discuss the app he co-founded, Long Game, and the mission to engage people in their financial decisions in an entirely different way.
All this and more, including what Ashby is particularly excited about and his most memorable investment in episode 159.
6/5/2019 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 27 seconds
#158 - Tobias Carlisle - The Way To Get The Best Performance Is To Concentrate Into Industries When They Get Cheap
In episode 158, we welcome back our gest from episode #77, founder of the Acquirers Funds, Tobias Carlisle. Toby begins by providing some detail about his new fund, The Acquirers Fund, a long/short deep value U.S. equity fund. He then spends some time talking about the short side of the portfolio, getting into the thoughtful approach he takes in considering positions including sizing, valuation, balance sheet factors, and stock price factors. He explains that the broad opportunity set looks good for short positions right now.
Meb and Toby shift to talking about the long period of underperformance for value investing. Toby hits on the fact that French/Fama data shows value has had its worst 10 year period ever based on the price/book ratio, and notes value has underperformed for an extended period based on other valuation metrics as well.
Meb then asks Toby about his process. Toby gets into some detail about his valuation process, and why he favors it vs. other valuation approaches.
As the conversation winds down, Toby chats about his own podcast, The Acquirers Podcast, some interesting guests he’s hosted recently, and what’s on the horizon for him and Acquirers Funds.
All this and more in episode 158.
5/29/2019 • 57 minutes, 42 seconds
#157 - Randy Swan - Always Invested, Always Hedged
In episode 157, we welcome back our guest from episode 83, Randy Swan. Randy and Meb kick off the conversation by getting into Randy’s new book, and what motivated him to write. Randy talks about having an opportunity to go back and write about how and why Swan operates the Defined Risk Strategy.
In getting into the investing framework outlined in the book, Randy explains why he thinks investors face a “Dual dilemma,” forced to stick with conservative investments, or step out into riskier assets and sacrifice protection from their conservative investments. He goes on to state his thoughts on the evolution of democracy and the role debt has played in decision making in government and central banking.
He then goes deeper into this dilemma by explaining the rationale behind his thinking about this problem, and his expectations for low returns in both equity and fixed income markets going forward.
Meb asks Randy to discuss why it’s so important to focus on avoiding large losses and investor psychology. Randy follows up with thoughts on portfolio construction concepts he feels are important to add to the current thinking to seek return streams that are more in line with investor expectations.
The conversation then shifts into the genesis behind Swan’s flagship, Defined Risk Strategy, the idea that correlation of returns is unreliable, especially in times of crisis, and the difficulty in defining risk in an investment portfolio. He then walks through the portfolio management process and covers some examples of the mechanics during bear markets.
As the conversation begins to wind down, Meb asks in what periods this strategy is expected to shine vs. struggle. Randy walks through the desirable market conditions for Swan’s strategies.
All this and more in episode 157.
5/22/2019 • 47 minutes, 40 seconds
#156 - Steve Glickman - I Think There’s A Lot Weighing On How Successful We Are At Achieving The Goals Of Opportunity Zones
In Episode 156 we welcome back our guest from episode #115, Steve Glickman. To get listeners up to speed, Steve starts with an overview of what Opportunity Zones are, some specifics about the design of the program, and some concepts behind how investors can actually put money to work in Opportunity Zones.
Meb asks about additional insights since updated rules have been announced. Steve discusses clarity on items such as investing timelines on capital gains, and the length of time funds have to invest capital.
When Meb asks about what kind of investments are available, Steve goes on to clarify that just about any asset class is available, but commercial real estate funds, energy, and infrastructure are areas he’s seeing utilized, among others.
The conversation then gets deeper into what needs to happen with investments to qualify to meet the regulations, and what happens if companies no longer qualify under the rules. For real estate specifically, Steve describes the need for projects to fall under one of two categories, either 1) purchased for original use, or 2) must undergo substantial improvement. He then describes some of the rules surrounding other businesses, such as startups and existing businesses. Meb follows up with questions on qualifications of some specific examples from public stocks to REITs.
On the back of details about investments, the pair get into the fund landscape, with Steve mentioning how much of the fund market will consist of professional money managers running funds in their respective industries.
Steve then covers what he’s seen so far from the very early days of the program. He discusses much of what he’s seeing is in commercial real estate, but he’s seeing creative models of asset classes many people haven’t thought of yet. He then shares some thoughts about how some of the early rules may be revisited going forward, and some of the potential issues that could come up with the program.
As the conversation winds down, Steve discusses his firm, and the things he’s working on.
All this and more in episode 156.
5/15/2019 • 58 minutes, 47 seconds
#155 - Aswath Damodaran - They [Uber And The Ride Sharing Companies Collectively] Have Disrupted This Business…That’s The Good News, The Bad News Is I Don’t Think They’ve Figured Out A Business Model That Can Convert That Growth Into Profits
For this special Friday episode, we welcome NYU professor and valuation expert, Aswath Damodaran. As it is Uber IPO day, Meb and Professor Damodaran start with a discussion about Uber and ride sharing valuations.
Next, the two get into Professor Damodaran’s work and his framework for thinking about valuation. He covers the craft of valuation, and how his framework evolves over time. Professor Damodaran then shares details on what he thinks about Amazon and Apple, how he thinks about valuation in the context of each company, what he’s learned, and how his process has changed over time.
Meb then asks Professor Damodaran about his thoughts on dividends and buybacks. Professor Damodaran starts with the corporate finance side of the discussion by describing buybacks and their role in the cash return to shareholders, the impacts buybacks have on corporations and investors, and the psychology behind the thinking about buybacks.
The conversation then shifts to a chat about Professor Damodaran’s work on valuations, and his current take on global valuations and equity risk premiums. He gets into the equity risk premium in the U.S. during 2008 and 2009 and the information that can be gleaned from studying the history of equity risk premiums.
As the conversation winds down, Meb asks professor Damodaran to talk about industries he feels are ripe for disruption. Professor Damodaran responds with some interesting insights into education, publishing, and banking.
All this and more in episode 155.
5/10/2019 • 58 minutes, 4 seconds
#154 - Frank Curzio - You Have To Be Able To Adapt To Different Strategies In Different Markets Because They're Ever Changing
In episode 154 we welcome Frank Curzio.
Frank begins with his origin story, learning to conduct financial research from his dad, working for Jim Cramer and the incredible industry and company access he had, and eventually launching Curzio Research.
Meb jumps right into markets by asking Frank what opportunities he’s seeing right now. Frank mentions he’s not seeing a lot of opportunity but likes seeing the separation in company reporting right now, some stocks reporting poorly, some reporting well. Overall, with a decent economy, not much crazy bullishness, and with valuations where they are, he thinks a downturn of 10-15% might create a lot of opportunities.
Frank then gets into tech. He discusses the idea that the leaders can continue to grind higher, and his thesis on why IBM’s Red Hat deal will be a gamechanger. He transitions into biotech and discusses his thoughts as well as some of the difficulties of investing successfully in the industry.
Next, the conversation transitions into energy. Frank talks about natural resources, and some of the “on the ground” research he’s done, and the difference it makes in his understanding of the investments he’s making, as well as some specifics on energy, mining, and resources.
The two then shift to talk about tokenization, and how Frank is tapping this innovative idea to raise capital for Curzio Research.
All this and more in episode 154.
5/8/2019 • 1 hour, 12 seconds
#153 - Kim Shannon - I’ve Long Believed That The Market Reflects Human Nature As Much As It Does Underlying Fundamental Value
In episode 153 we welcome Kim Shannon. Kim begins with a discussion of human nature and her value investing framework. She covers the importance of using discipline, the characteristics she and her team look for, the question of value’s efficacy, and the opportunity going forward for value to show its might.
Meb then asks where she’s seeing value right now. Kim talks about Canada and it’s valuation relative to other markets, and that a number of investors are interested in the concept of concentrated investment portfolios. She then gets into potential overvaluation in pockets of the Canadian housing market.
The conversation then shifts with Meb asking about Kim’s event in Omaha this year around the 2019 Berkshire Hathaway meeting, the Variant Perspectives Value Investing Conference, to raise awareness about the gender bias gap in the investment sector.
All this and more in episode 153.
5/1/2019 • 54 minutes, 40 seconds
#152 - Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa - We Believe We’re In The Early Stages Of A Bear Market
In episode 152 we welcome Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital. Kevin kicks off the conversation with an overview of Crescat’s approach, the long-only strategy, long/short equity hedge fund, and Global Macro Fund.
Tavi then gets into high equity market valuations, their macro model that has timed well in backtests with previous market peaks and troughs in the tech and housing bubbles, 15 countries with 30-year bond yields below the Fed Funds rate, and demand for U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. Kevin follows up with some comments on implementation and expressing these views in their portfolio, and why they continue to trust their process and remain net-short equities.
Next, Tavi gets into Crescat’s thesis on China and the potential credit bubble, and the vulnerable Chinese currency as a result.
Meb then asks about Crescat’s bullish thesis on precious metals. Kevin discusses that trade’s role in the portfolio, and its place as a theme in the global macro fund, which includes, a short equity theme, long precious metals theme, and a short Chinese Yuan theme.
Meb asks the pair to get into some of their other themes that stand out as opportunities. Kevin links the Canadian housing bubble and Australian debt crisis themes to China and Chinese capital outflows. He also covers some longs as part of their cybersecurity theme such as Palo Alto Networks.
Meb shifts by asking about what investors should takeaway from Crescat’s thinking, Kevin adds that people should think about more tactical asset allocation, become increasingly defensive, and consider some alternatives. Tavi adds that investors may want to consider cash, precious metals, and perhaps some Treasuries.
As the conversation winds down, Meb asks about anything else they consider that isn’t covered widely in the media or by investment managers. Kevin discusses consumer confidence, and Tavi adds twin deficits and an alternative view of beta.
All this and more in episode 152.
4/24/2019 • 55 minutes, 33 seconds
#151 - Divya Narendra - Valuation Is Probably The Most Critical Component of SumZero’s Thesis
In episode 151 we welcome Divya Narendra, CEO & Co-Founder of SumZero. Divya begins by talking about the beginnings of SumZero and finding its initial traction by Divya calling friends from other funds and politely asking them to submit research. From there, he asked those friends to provide any contacts they could, and the platform grew from there, including a cap-intro side of the business to expose analysts, PMs, and fund managers to potential investors.
Divya then discusses addressing the shortcomings of sell side research with SumZero, in particular, the lack of vested interest and high conviction from the sell-side, and lack of coverage in unknown securities. All contributors are vetted, and their ideas go through Divya.
Meb asks about how people use the site for generating ideas, which brings up some various processes like screens from people with a fundamental approach, to quants who are looking at items like who is getting the most views and best ratings. Divya even gets into some of the best ideas contests he has run, and even submitted a contest winner’s idea to Warren Buffett.
The conversation then shifts to what Divya sees in the future for SumZero, from scaling cap-intro efforts, to a data feed that can serve quantitatively driven analysts, but ultimately looks to expand the scope of the SumZero community.
Catch all this and more in episode 151, including Divya’s thoughts about the future of fundamental stock picking, robo advisors and the private wealth model, and more.
4/17/2019 • 58 minutes, 20 seconds
#150 - Bill Smead - The United States Economy is Highly Likely To Be The Strongest The Next 10 Years It's Been Since The Baby Boomers Went Through The 30-45 Year-Old Age Range
In episode 150 we welcome Bill Smead. Bill begins with how he came to be a value investor, describing himself as someone who came from a family of educated gamblers, and as a boy, going to greyhound races, learning to put probabilities in his favor, and even developing a criteria system for selecting greyhounds.
Next, Bill talks about his beginnings in the investment business, starting out in an era of high interest rates, and reading about Buffett, Lynch, and some of investing’s great minds. He describes his 8 criteria for selecting investments: 1) Does it meet an economic need 2) Does it have a long history of profitability 3) Does it have a wide moat 4) Does it generate high and consistent cash flow 5) Can the company be purchased at a discount 6) Business must be shareholder friendly 7) The company must have a strong balance sheet 8) The company must have strong insider ownership.
Meb then asks Bill to elaborate on the investment landscape, and what he’s seeing in a specific pocket of the market. Bill discusses the parabolic move in e-commerce companies, and issues he sees in the strategies and valuations of companies like Amazon.
As the conversation winds down, Bill lays out the thesis that the Millennials are in position to drive the economy in the future.
All this and more in episode 150, including Bill’s most memorable investment.
4/10/2019 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 45 seconds
#149 - Phil Haslett - Lyft’s Doing $2 Billion Dollars A Year In Revenue, And It’s Growing That Revenue 105% A Year. There Are Only 8 Companies Listed On The Stock Exchange In The U.S. With That Kind Of Profile
In episode 149 we welcome back our guest from Episode 122, Phil Haslett. Meb and Phil begin the episode with a chat of the IPO environment so far in 2019, and the recent Lyft IPO. Phil then gets into the cyclicality of IPOs in general, and that IPOs tend to be most successful when the market is not so volatile.
Meb asks Phil about the IPO process. Phil starts with banking and how the banking relationship works, and what some companies have done to avoid the high costs of going through the IPO process. Google was the first to give an alternative approach to the IPO process a shot, and Spotify found huge success through a direct listing.
Next, Phil gets into the changing characteristics of what firms look like in today’s IPO cycle, vs. the past. He discusses that the value of which companies go public is far higher than it used to be, and they are going public much later. This stems from companies raising large amounts of capital as private companies. Eventually, though, they’ll need to go public for a couple of reasons. 1) venture capital investors that invested early, may run out of patience waiting for an exit, 2) the need to address liquidity for other shareholders 3) recognition, and 4) be able to issue stock and raise capital for potential future M&A.
The conversation then shifts back to Lyft, and their S-1 filing.
Phil mentions some interesting points he and his team found in the S-1. He discusses Lyft’s $300 million R&D spend, signaling the likelihood it is making major investments, possibly in autonomous driving. They also found that the company has presented itself as a transportation as a service (TaaS) company.
Meb brings up the topic of dilution, and why it is so important in understanding venture capital investing, and Phil walks through the fundamentals of capital raising, and shareholder dilution, and what it really means to early investors.
Next, employee wealth, and how to think about managing it is addressed. Phil shares some advice of being diversified to offset the concentration that comes with both owning shares and earning a paycheck from the same company.
As the conversation begins to wind down, Phil covers his take on the future of the private investment space.
Hear all this and more in episode 149, including the future of EquityZen, and Phil’s predictions for the 2019 IPO market.
4/3/2019 • 1 hour, 5 seconds
#148 - Paul Lountzis - The Qualitative Characteristics Are Becoming Significantly More Meaningful And More Important In Company Analysis
In episode 148 we welcome Paul Lountzis. Paul starts with his background in consulting that led him to develop a skillset in competitive analysis that meant going out into the field to conduct research far beyond the numbers, leading to “differential insights.” He wanted to get into value investing and reached out to a number of firms including Warren Buffett’s assistant, Gladys Kaiser. He ended up interviewing with Chuck Royce’s partner, Tom Ebright, and after Chuck saw his work, he was put on research projects for Chuck. He then went to work for Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarm before founding Lountzis Asset Management.
Paul then discusses his framework of finding outstanding businesses that are unique, different, and special. He talks about that changes that are taking place and how the qualitative characteristics are becoming significantly more meaningful in company analysis. He highlights the importance of field research primarily to prevent permanent loss of capital, and to drive greater conviction to potentially make bigger bets on companies.
Meb then asks Paul to get into the investment process at Lountzis. Paul emphasizes a long-term holding period, screening on financial metrics like return on investment capital, free cash flow, revenue growth, and covering 600-700 names across the team. Beyond that, the team digs into further insights, from management elements like capital allocation, shareholder friendliness, and the quality of their operating ability, to valuation and the general level of inflation and taxation. He then dives into some examples of how he and his team identify businesses that are unique, different, and special in practice.
Meb then gets into questions on risk. Paul discusses how he and his team look at position sizing and risk based on the clarity in which they understand the business.
The conversation then shifts into a discussion about the current and future state of Berkshire Hathaway. Paul talks about how unique and special Warren Buffett is, how valuable the underlying businesses are that Berkshire owns, and a couple of items that concern him about life after Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
All this and more in episode 148, including a special story about a hand he played in helping students meet Warren Buffett.
3/27/2019 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 58 seconds
#147 - The Stay Rich Portfolio (or, How to Add 2% Yield to Your Savings Account)
Episode 147 is a Meb Short. In this episode, you’ll hear Meb discuss a critical topic to consider for investors…The portfolio that helps you get rich isn’t necessarily the portfolio that’s going to help you remain rich. In this piece, Meb explains that risk-free assets often considered “safe,” aren’t exactly that, if viewed in the proper context. He proposes that with some thought, a strategy can be engineered to offer expected drawdowns similar to T-Bills historically, while at the same time, going above and beyond by historically offering exposure to some positive performance after inflation.
All this and more in episode 147.
3/20/2019 • 15 minutes, 52 seconds
#146 - Neil Littman - The More Risk You Kill, Inherently, The More Value You Create
In episode 146 we welcome Neil Littman. Neil starts with his background and how he came up with the idea of Bioverge, a platform that offers an opportunity to invest in healthcare startups, with the mission of democratizing access to early stage healthcare companies. Neil follows that with a discussion of his time at CIRM, and some of the incredible stories and the science he experienced firsthand during his involvement. It was his time at CIRM where he learned that the institutional model of financing and investing could be applied to the retail sector as well. That paired with his desire to provide exposure to the alternative asset class created the perfect storm and the result was Bioverge.
Meb then asks Neil to get into the structure of the Bioverge platform. Neil explains that the decentralized network they built provides warm referrals to Bioverge and ultimately links capital to potential investment opportunities. In addition to that, Bioverge provides value added service beyond capital that is important for founders and portfolio companies that may seek support and expertise along the way. Beyond sourcing deal flow, another critical component for Bioverge is diligence on the investment opportunities by leveraging its network of subject matter experts with deep domain expertise. In evaluating opportunities, Neil explains the “nuts and bolts” of the model they use, looking at the risk and reward side of the equation.
The conversation then turns to some examples of companies and deals Neil has been involved with since starting Bioverge. Neil provides a walk-through of Notable Labs, which provides personalized drug combination testing for cancer patients, Crowd Med, a service that relies on crowd sourcing to help solve difficult medical cases, Ligandal, a company delivering a gene therapy platform, Occam’s Razor, a company that is attempting to understand and cure neurodegenerative diseases, Blue Mesa health, developing a new breed of digital therapeutics to nudge patients to change behavior, and Echo laboratories, developers of a hybrid microscope with a new twist on the traditional eye piece.
The conversation winds down with Neil providing some insight into what he sees in the future for the industry, and the long-term vision for Bioverge.
All this and more in episode 146.
3/13/2019 • 1 hour, 43 seconds
#145 - Cloning The Largest Hedge Fund In The World: Bridgewater's All Weather
Episode 145 is a Meb Short. In this episode, you’ll hear Meb follow-up on his 2014 article, Cloning the Largest Hedge Fund in the World: Bridgewater’s All Weather. Meb covers how Bridgewater’s All Weather portfolio compared to the global asset allocation portfolio, and an extension, the global asset allocation portfolio with leverage. He winds down by giving an update on how the strategies have performed since writing the piece in 2014. All this and more in episode 145.
3/6/2019 • 12 minutes, 17 seconds
#144 - Marty Bergin - Adapt Or Die
In Episode 144 we welcome Marty Bergin. Marty begins by going through his background, the history of Dunn Capital and the relationship he had with Bill Dunn, the founder of Dunn Capital. That relationship opened the door for Marty to ultimately work or Bill, and to later become the owner of the firm as part of a transition plan.
Next, Meb asks Marty to describe trend following as it relates to Dunn. Marty describes that trend following is pretty basic, but there’s magic in how you develop a portfolio with the strategy. At Dunn, Marty and his team rely on an adaptive trend-following system. From a portfolio management perspective, they look for markets with enough volume to trade in 55 markets across commodities, currencies, interest rates, bonds, equities, and volatility with an equal allocation of risk buckets for each market they trade.
Meb follows that with a question about how it all fits together on a high level. Marty explains the program is not restricted in any way, and multiple methods are used for determining noise. He adds that when looking at possibilities, they are looking at a few days all the way out to a couple of years, and update weekly, yet he doesn’t believe there would be a major drift in performance if it were updated on a 12 or 18 month basis. The program gets into positions slowly, and is designed to get out quickly to protect downside.
The conversation then transitions into how the system has evolved over time. Marty walks through the core tweaks Dunn has undergone to adapt and improve the trading system, from looking at trading from a market-by-market basis, to applying the same techniques to every market, to taking a fresh approach to risk.
Meb then asks about what Dunn’s strategy looks like during various environments. Marty goes on to talk about how a trend follower is looking for directional volatility that is consistently applied, and the difficulty of environments like 2018 when trend followers can become overweight and get caught in corrections that can lead to aggressive reversals.
He follows that with some insight into thinking about the current environment through the lens of Dunn Capital, and talks about risk metrics setting up to look conducive for trend following.
Meb and Marty wind down with a chat about how Dunn is very focused on education. They also touch on Dunn’s unique fee structure, and the place for a strategy like Dunn’s in investment portfolios.
All this and more in episode 144.
2/27/2019 • 57 minutes, 20 seconds
#143 - David Eifrig - Most People Run Losses Into The Ground
In episode 143 we welcome Dr. David Eifrig. David begins by going through his background and pathway to finance. He first discovered his interest in investing through the occasional Barron’s issue, and understood he didn’t want to follow in his father’s footsteps in medicine, moving on to Kellogg for business school before moving on to Wall Street. He describes that while working in finance, he decided to pursue science and medical school and ultimately helped build a business that was sold to Roche. While in residency, he began writing and that launched him into newsletter writing.
Meb then asks David to describe his publications, Retirement Millionaire, Retirement Trader, Income Intelligence, and the newly launched Advanced Options.
Meb asks David about how he thinks about value and price declines. David responds with some background on how he prefers to teach investing, and provides a simple framework for thinking about price and value.
After a quick discussion of the closed-end fund space, the conversation shifts to what looks interesting right now. David discusses Altria, and their exposure to the vaping market and the marijuana industry as well as preferred shares. The pair then expands with a discussion about the current interest rate and inflationary environment after an interesting example from David. David also gets into the use of stop losses, having a plan, and the mindset of having an idea of when to sell. He mentions that he thinks about structuring portfolio positions such that losses on one single position won’t significantly impact the overall portfolio.
The conversation then shifts gears into some lifestyle suggestions, David’s experience as a winemaker, and David’s best and worst trades.
All this and more in episode 143.
2/20/2019 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 31 seconds
#142 - Ryan Ansin - I Don't Believe That It's Easy To Back Into Revenue In This Industry, There Are Just A Thousand Things That Can Go Wrong
In episode 142 we welcome Ryan Ansin. Ryan begins by discussing how his introduction into the cannabis industry started with thoughtful conversations at home, focused on the social justice perspective. He started investing in the industry over 4 years ago, then had an opportunity to purchase a factory in Fitchburg, Massachusetts. What started off as a passive real estate investment he thought would be a fit for vertical farming, and a suggestion from vertical farming experts to consider cultivating cannabis, led him to start his operation, Revolutionary.
Meb asks Ryan to speak in more depth about the business and the cannabis ecosystem. Ryan discusses the laws that shaped the cannabis industry in Massachusetts that caused a lot of fallout until recently. His operation is vertically integrated, and they go after products they can excel in, while licensing and distributing other products they don’t feel they can execute as well. Next, he discusses his vision for the company, and his goal to expand within Massachusetts, do it responsibly and sustainably, before growing elsewhere.
Ryan then gets into investing in cannabis companies, and although he receives hundreds of decks per month, he focuses on areas that fit well and within his areas of competence. The basis for his thinking behind the investments he makes is how it initially can help Revolutionary. He brings up the important point that we have not seen a full venture cycle in cannabis yet, what the exits will be, how, and when, so it is important to think about investments that can optimize operations.
Meb shifts into valuations in the space. Ryan mentions that he feels that valuations are high, and that valuation is a huge consideration for him. He notes that while many companies appear to be valued under assumptions of being able to sell what they’re funded to produce, and expand internationally in some cases, he believes competition may create unforeseen barriers in certain markets that may not be accounted for in valuations.
The conversation then transitions into the huge institutional interest that Ryan sees in the industry, as he has seen family offices gradually shift in their comfort level with the space.
As the pair wind down, Meb asks Ryan to discuss his involvement in the Family Office Association. Ryan provides useful insight about best practices in managing multigenerational wealth.
All this and more, in episode 142.
2/13/2019 • 55 minutes, 52 seconds
#141 - Radio Show - 34 of 40 Countries Have Negative 52 Week Momentum...Big Tax Bills for Mutual Fund Investors...and Listener Q&A
Episode 141 has a radio show format. We cover tweets of the month from Meb as well as listener Q&A.
For Tweets of the Month, a few topics we cover include:
A tweet from Charlie Bilello covering the range of equity returns over the past 11 years, from the U.S. +135% to Russia -48%.
Norbert Kiemling’s tweet about his team’s updated data that shows 34 of 40 countries with negative 52 week momentum.
Jason Zweig’s article on tax bills for mutual fund investors.
We then get into listener Q&A, a few questions we touch on include:
How can I find a good mentor in this field?
How can I build a network without Ivy League or Silicon Valley connections?
What knowledge, skills, degrees, certifications are most important and how do you recommend I obtain those skills?
There’s this and plenty more in episode 141.
2/6/2019 • 55 minutes, 42 seconds
#140 - Ralph Acampora - Don't Ever Fight Papa Dow
In episode 140 we welcome Ralph Acampora. Ralph begins with his background and talks about the accident that left him in a body cast for months. His father’s best friend left a copy of something market related that he was reading when he visited the hospital. That piqued his curiosity, and he later found a job as a junior analyst on Wall Street. It was that job that introduced him to technical analysis.
Meb then gets into technical analysis and what is, and what it means to Ralph. Ralph discusses how he keeps it simple, looking at trends every day with a few indicators. He then goes on to explain Dow Theory before explaining that when he took a look at the market through the lens of Dow Theory, when the Dow Industrials, and Dow Transports hit low points late last year, he saw a downturn signal. He mentions the post-Christmas rally was a nice move in a short period of time, but he refers to it as a “vacuum” rally. The bad news is that he saw the rally encounter overhead resistance and is looking overbought. For this move to sustain, he’d like to see, over the next month or two, the market hold above December lows.
Looking around the world, he sees the DAX in a topping period, and emerging market stocks look like they’re trying to bottom. As far as commodities go, he thinks crude is bottoming as well.
Ralph then gets into how little acceptance there was of technical analysis early in his career, and how he fought for technical analysis.
Meb then asks Ralph to touch on behavioral finance. He discusses how technical analysts have been incorporating behavioral finance for years.
As the conversation winds down, Meb asks Ralph if anything has changed about his approach to analyzing markets, and Ralph quickly says “No,” and talks about how over time, technical analysis is looking at buyers and sellers, which he feels haven’t changed, so he hasn’t changed his analysis.
This and more in episode 140, including a fantastic story behind Ralph’s most memorable trade, and where one of his hand-drawn charts is now displayed.
1/30/2019 • 57 minutes, 40 seconds
#139 - Taz Turner and Nate Nienhuis - We're Really Driving At What We Feel Is The Holy Grail Of Cannabis
In episode 139, we welcome Taz Turner, CEO, and Nate Nienhuis, COO, of CordovaCann in the 4th installment of our cannabis series.
The episode begins with the backstory behind CordovaCann, and the mission to produce superior plants and consistent and predictable products. Meb asks the pair to get into their backgrounds. Nate starts by describing his deep industry background from consulting with operators, to working on the regulatory side in Washington D.C. Taz then talks about his career in finance, and what led him into investing in the cannabis industry first in Canada, then in the U.S. He goes on to discuss his conversations with Nate and others in the industry leading to the launch of Cordova.
Meb then asks about the Cordova roadmap with the company ultimately growing into a cannabis operation. Taz had the idea of targeting the more established markets in the western United States and overlaying their technology platform to add value to the operators. Nate then gets into the details of the importance of consistent formulation, and how their platform is delivering technology that isn’t being utilized by the rest of the industry.
The conversation then shifts to the regulatory environment, and Taz notes the ball seems to be moving forward. Nate adds that he thinks the regulations will continue to get more specific.
Next, Meb asks about acquiring assets. Taz talks about the parallels he sees to the late 1990s internet craze. He discusses the goal of taking already strong operators and overlaying the technology that Cordova has, while Nate talks about the importance of culture. Taz follows up with some specific examples of how the acquisitions have worked on a state-by-state basis.
Meb asks what the future looks like. Nate talks about the growth of the industry and how various operators and even large-scale manufacturing operations may get into the space, as well as significant advancement in science, and continued refinement of the cannabis product line.
All this and more in episode 139 including the long-term vision for Cordova, and Taz and Nate’s most memorable investments.
1/23/2019 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 3 seconds
#138 - Yariv Haim - You Should Never Try To Reassess Your Risk Appetite When Markets Crash
In episode 138, we welcome Yariv Haim. Yariv begins with his backstory. He had been working for a family running marketing and business development. He was asked to get involved with the investment management needs of the family, and through a path of his own, had gained enough knowledge to crystallize an approach he now follows at Sparrows Capital.
Yariv discusses how he focused on evidence from impartial academic institutions and research, and refers to the strategies derived from them as evidence-based investing strategies. After doing his research, he saw an informational gap in the industry, and it still exists today.
Yariv then gets into 6 core principles 1) return is primarily a function of risk, 2) certain risks attract persistent premium, 3) Diversification works, 4) stock picking and market timing seldom add value, 5) remain invested across the full cycle, 6) costs matter (although it isn’t the only prism to evaluate investment opportunities).
Next, Meb asks about factors and smart beta. Yariv discusses his opinion that Wall Street is a marketing machine, and the term “smart beta,” while it sounds sexy, ends up becoming an umbrella for all things. When asked about factors and when it’s time to stop using them, Yariv responds by discussing resources available, and the importance of doing the homework, and not to invest until you fully understand what you are investing in. As far as favorite factors go, Yariv talked about not having one, and expanded by saying he sees factor timing as a problem. He recommends a blend of factors to clients, starting with the most diversified portfolio, and building tilts.
The conversation then shifts to a discussion of behavioral investing. Yariv talks about how investors are all human beings, human beings are filled with biases and emotions, and feelings of optimism and pessimism can affect the way we make decisions. He finishes his comment by saying he feels that for people who wish to invest on their own, that it is always helpful to have someone by your side who is potentially slightly less emotional about the way your portfolio behaves in the short term.
As the conversation winds down, Meb and Yariv get into socially responsible investing and environmental and social governance themes. Yariv believes it is a trend that nobody can ignore today. He discusses some research conclusions the efficiency of markets and how higher returns investors have earned on vice companies is compensated for the additional risk they bear for owning them. He makes the point that there is more to investing than purely outcome in the form of returns, and that if an investor’s ethical compass steers them in the SRI/ESG direction, it is sensible to invest that way.
The pair then conclude with how Yariv puts all of these ideas together to form investment portfolios.
This and more in episode 138.
1/16/2019 • 1 hour, 28 seconds
#137 - Emily and Morgan Paxhia - The Growers Who Focused On Creating Efficient Operations Are The Ones That Are Still Around Today
In episode 137 we welcome the sibling duo, Emily and Morgan Paxhia. Emily and Morgan begin by discussing their backstory, and how coming from a family with an entrepreneurial background influenced their path to start Poseidon Asset Management to specialize in cannabis investing. Emily and Morgan each describe their previous roles and the skills they acquired in their respective industries (Consulting for Emily, and Investment Management for Morgan) that helped them build foundations that transitioned well into asset management.
Next, the pair discusses starting their fund, and the journey that included seeking service providers, raising capital, and the many challenges and hurdles they faced along the way. Morgan mentioned that even with all the hurdles, they knew they were on to something and continued to drive forward.
Meb then asks about cannabis industry trends and what the space has in store looking forward. Emily covers some regulatory and political issues and then talks about the challenge they will face as a firm as they try to allocate capital before the industry really opens up down the road. Morgan follows with some catalysts that include legal cannabis in California, a number of countries approving medical cannabis, and expanded media coverage.
The conversation shifts to the regulatory environment. Morgan talks about the progress that has been made, although state programs are varied, which makes it difficult to see where the standout model lies. There’s also bi-partisan support, New York is looking serious at legalizing, and the environment is moving forward.
Meb follows with questions about the investment process and portfolio building, as well as a question on what areas people aren’t thinking about that have disruptive potential. Emily and Morgan talk about looking at the industry by subsector such as ag-tech and technology and being invested everywhere on the spectrum from plant cultivation to end consumer product consumption and that the portfolio construction process leans on a very diversified approach but is very flexible and dynamic. In searching for ideas, they rely on a “boots on the ground” approach to understand the industry and operator dynamics, as well as identify quality teams. Meb then asks about any areas people aren’t thinking about that have disruptive potential. Emily and Morgan respond with 100% industrial hemp as a product that has disruptive potential with almost endless applications.
Hear all this and more in episode 137, including the names of some portfolio companies and their most memorable investments.
1/9/2019 • 49 minutes, 57 seconds
#136 - Steve Romick - Value Investing Is, To Us, Simply Investing With A Margin Of Safety, Believing That You've Made An Investment Where It's Hard To Lose Money Over Time
In episode 136, we welcome Steve Romick. The conversation begins with Steve explaining that he hated losing more than he enjoyed winning, and while there wasn’t one event that led him to value investing, he considers his aversion to loss a contributor to being drawn to the value-oriented investment approach.
Meb then transitions the conversation by asking Steve to characterize the investment strategy of FPA’s Crescent Fund. Steve talks about the value investing framework as investing with a margin of safety and how it has morphed over the years from being about the balance sheet to now, through technological innovation, the corporate lifecycle has been as short of it has ever been with the most of the density of innovation happening in the past 50 years.
Next, the discussion turns to investment framework. Steve describes this team of 11, and how the job of his team is to understand the business and industry first on both a quantitative and qualitative basis. He describes the go-anywhere mandate as a potential recipe for disaster as there are more places to lose money. Steve then discusses looking at equities and debt for the portfolio. In the equity space, they’re looking at two categories, the high quality growing businesses considered “compounders,” and more traditional value investments, where there’s potential for 3 times upside to downside. Meb then asks Steve about Naspers, and Steve follow’s up with commentary about one of the biggest losers the portfolio’s ever had, but reiterates that his biggest concern is permanent loss of capital, and as the holding is still in the portfolio, he’d be surprised if they didn’t make money on it long-term.
Meb asks Steve about credit. Steve talks about high yield and distressed debt as an asset class being periodically attractive and one doesn’t need to be there all the time. He explains that the gross yield of roughly 6.5% looks interesting on the surface, but once you consider the history of defaults and recovery, the yield drops significantly to 4.4%, right above the investment grade yield, and it isn’t so attractive. Steve talks about how the fund allows the freedom to seek asset classes that offer value, and that for the first time, they now own a municipal bond. Steve then discusses the small allocation they have to farmland.
Meb follows with a question about holding cash. Steve expands by talking about going through the research process, and when there aren’t enough opportunities that meet their parameters, cash results as a byproduct.
The discussion then gets into Steve’s background at FPA, and what it was like going through the late 1990s. Steve talks about trailing the market going into the late 90s as valuations appeared unsupportable, but fast forward a few years and he and the team were validated. They allocated to high yield, small cap, and value, and made money in 2000, 2001 and 2002 when the market was down.
Meb then asks how Steve views the rest of the world. Steve responds that while it is more expensive generally here in the U.S., it is important to remember that international exposure can be had by owning U.S. stocks with revenue exposure overseas, and that like-for-like companies are trading at similar valuations outside of the U.S.
Next, Meb and Steve discuss the importance of managers investing alongside their clients. Steve feels it is important that investor’s energy should be aligned with the client’s interests and holdings.
All this and more, including Steve’s thought on the catalysts that could end the current bull market in episode 136.
1/2/2019 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 29 seconds
#135 - Karan Wadhera - We're Still In Very, Very Early Innings For What's Going To Be An Incredible Ride
In Episode 135, we welcome Karan Wadhera. We start with Karan giving his backstory that includes a stint at Goldman Sachs and some entrepreneurship. After some time studying the industry, he ultimately got involved in the Cannabis space with Casa Verde.
Meb then asks about what Karan sees as a “why now” investment opportunity. Karan talks about the opportunity coming out of the existing black market that is transitioning into a legal market and a range of products that have more to do with other things than just getting high.
Next, the conversation shifts to the political landscape, and Karan provides some detail on the gap between the state and federal level, and the federal view of cannabis as a Schedule 1 controlled substance. He discusses how dramatically things are changing, especially in the political space.
Meb then asks about the investment landscape for cannabis. Karan talks about how volatile the public market space is, and how when evaluating the theme, Casa Verde saw an opportunity in the ancillary space, companies involved in the industry but not in cultivation, manufacturing, or retail. He then provides detail on the kinds of involvement Casa Verde has in the portfolio companies, as well as some background on portfolio companies leaflink, green bits, trellis, and metric.
Karan then talks about some of the areas of the industry that need improvement such as financial services until the industry reaches federal legalization, ag-tech, and biotech. Meb then asks about investor interest in the space. Karan talks about how more traditional institutions are now starting to explore it, and how U.S. investors will be limited on what they can do until there is a federal regime in place. Karan follows up with some resources available to learn more about the industry.
This and more, including Karan’s most memorable investment in episode 135.
12/26/2018 • 42 minutes, 16 seconds
#134 - Chris Cole - Volatility Is The Instrument That Makes Us Face Truth
In Episode 134, we welcome Chris Cole. Meb kicks off the show by asking Chris to describe his nontraditional background. Chris studied cinematography in film school at USC, while trading options in his spare time. He eventually made a career switch and began in Merrill Lynch’s analyst program in New York, while trading in his spare time. With his trading, he eventually created $1 Million to start his firm.
Next, the conversation transitions to Chris’s work, including his take that “Volatility is the only asset class.” Chris follows by discussing how returns can be deconstructed to represent either “short-vol” or “long-vol” strategies. He mentions that the average institutional portfolio is a 98% short-volatility portfolio that will not perform all that well during a period of regime change.
Meb then brings up some recent events that have transpired to lead into a chat about short vs. long volatility, and some dangers when thinking about the strategies. Chris discusses how volatility can be expressed in both tails, for example, the right tail being high volatility and high asset returns, and provides an example that volatility was averaging around 25 in the late 90s when the market was going up 30% per year. He follows with a stat that at-the-money vol moved more in January of this year than it did in the February move most might be familiar with.
Chris then provides his thoughts about regime changes, what is possible, and what he sees in the market. He starts with his recent paper, Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk. In that paper, he uses the example of the Ouroboros, or “Tail devourer” as a metaphor for the current short-volatility trade. What he sees as a worry are the explicit short-vol traders, $1.4 Trillion of implicit short-vol strategies that are re-creating a portfolio of short options by financial engineering, and corporations using leverage to buy back shares, suppressing volatility. All together these scenarios represent a snake eating its tail.
Meb then asks Chris to talk about market pressures that have resulted in liquidity changes. Chris explains that this is the only bull market in history with less and less volume, and less and less volatility. He mentions that what was scary about February’s volatility was that liquidity vanished. He follows with a discussion of passive vs. active investing, and the role active investors play in the market.
Meb then asks about catalysts for stress in the market. He talks about the passive strategy not being understood by investors as something that could lead to de-stabilizing conditions, and that over 50% of the investment grade debt is in the lowest rated tranches, and over $2 Trillion of debt that needs to be rolled in 2019 and 2020. He mentions that what could potentially cause an issue is inflation leading to higher rates, a minor turn of the business cycle given the amount of leverage and gearing on corporate balance sheets, as well as the reliance of stocks and bonds being un-correlated if the markets enter a period where stock and bond correlations are in fact positively correlated.
Next, through an example of rental car insurance, Chris gives some background on implementing long-vol strategies by using quantitative analytics to help identify points in time where you are paid to own “insurance” against market declines, in addition to predictive analytics that provide an informational edge to help understand whether or not it might be productive to own protection against market volatility risk.
Meb follows with a question on the Japanese Vol Monster. Chris describes the short-vol trade that has been going on in Japan for a long time. He then describes philosophically that volatility is the instrument that makes us face truth.
This and more in episode 134.
12/19/2018 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 18 seconds
#133 - Todd Harrison - Humanity Has Had a 30,000 Year Relationship with Cannabis
In Episode 133, we welcome Todd Harrison. Meb begins the conversation asking Todd about what got him into the cannabis space. Todd discusses his intellectual curiosity of the space, and what he has learned about the history of cannabis, from the 30,000 year relationship we have had with it as humans, to the US weaponizing marijuana.
Meb then leads into the topic of governments and states changing their attitudes. Todd talks about it being a confluence of things, but gets into a personal story of how he discovered the efficacious ability of cannabis by working with Dr. Julie Holland after struggling with a decade long treatment of PTSD with a Western medicine protocol.
The conversation then turns to the marketplace. Todd relays that there is quite a bit ahead for the consumer space. In hearing what scientists have to say, it has painted a much different picture for the breadth of wellness that is going to be disrupted going forward.
Next, Meb and Todd discuss a little background on cannabinoids in general. Todd describes that there are over 200 different cannabinoid strains that exist. CBD and THC are two that have been popularized, but when you drill down, there are far more, including CBN, that aids sleep.
The conversation shifts to the broad marketplace for investors. Todd describes the four primary arbitrage opportunities he sees that present opportunity: 1) Time Vs. Policy, 2) Price vs. Institutional Flow, 3) Perception, and 4) Liquidity.
Meb follows by asking Todd about the firm’s investment approach. Todd talks about taking the long view. He mentions that the space has had two 50% drawdowns this year, and they count on disciplined position sizing and light use of puts to layer on with the long view but are using the current volatility to their advantage right now.
Meb then asks Todd about the leading countries in the global landscape right now. Todd talks about Canada being the most mature, Australia looking compelling, and sees the U.S. as having the best opportunity set.
Meb asks how Todd diversifies across industry groups and various verticals. Todd talks about there being about 500 listed stocks right now, and that there are probably 50 to 55 companies that his firm wants to invest in, and probably up to half of them at any given time. He thinks in 10 years’ time the survivors can offer a significant market cap. He and his team are focused on sticking with the companies they think are positioned to win.
Meb then asks what Todd’s favorite vertical is if he had to pick one to be invested in for 5 years. Todd mentions it would be biotech, even though it may take longer for those investments to pan out because they still have to go through the traditional biotech process.
Todd then gets into his approach for analyzing stocks. Todd discusses the importance of understanding the management teams, and “betting on jockeys as much as the horse,” as well as taking the fundamental perspective by getting a read on the company through a DCF analysis.
All this and more, including a few names in Todd’s portfolio, and some suggestions for resources investors can tap for research on the industry in Episode 133.
12/12/2018 • 50 minutes, 23 seconds
#132 - Radio Show - Since 1989 80% of Stocks Had a Collective Return of 0%... A Goldman Bear-Market Indicator at Its Highest Point in Decades... and Listener Q&A
Episode 132 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover numerous Tweets of the Week from Meb as well as listener Q&A.
For our Tweets of the Week, a few we cover include:
A chart from Longboard about returns. Since 1989, the worst performing 11,513 stocks – which is 80% of all stocks, collectively had a total return of 0%. The best performing 2,942 stocks (20% of all) accounted for all the gains.
A tweet about another option selling fund blow-up.
A Jason Zweig post about how many investors should question the dogma of “stocks for the long” run since history shows that a portfolio of bonds has outperformed stocks surprisingly often and for long periods.
The statistic “According to Goldman, its indicator at 73% marks the highest bear-market reading since the late 1960s and early 1970s, which (with a few exceptions) is consistent with returns of zero over the following 12 months.”
We then jump into listener Q&A. Some you’ll hear include:
In your book, Global Asset Allocation, you compare the results of well-known asset allocations and find that the returns are quite close. Over a long period of time, would you also expect the results of a momentum / value strategy to be similar? Is the main advantage that it allows for better behavior (lower drawdowns, etc) or would you also expect the performance to differ (net of fees)?
Would you rather own a stock with a high free cash flow yield or high dividend yield?
I was wondering if you could touch on the process of launching an ETF. What are the startup costs, how much AUM and at what fee would the ETF breakeven?
I've heard you (and others) extol the benefits of a diversified global allocation but I rarely (if ever) hear the counter argument: that the US deserves a premium to the rest of the world because it has the largest and deepest capital markets, has comparatively lower regulation and fosters innovation and creative destruction. Do those factors warrant an over-allocation to US equities?
How much should the average investor be willing to spend (as a percentage of portfolio value) in order to carry some protection in the form of puts?
What beats the 60/40 portfolio over the next 5 and 10 year periods?
As usual, there are plenty of rabbit holes. You’ll find them all in Episode 132.
12/5/2018 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 56 seconds
#131 – David Rosenberg - If Next Year is Not a Recession, It’s Going to Feel Like It
In Episode 131, we welcome economist David Rosenberg.
We jump right into David’s view of the current economic landscape. David talks about the global economy, especially the US looking classically late cycle, as the economy is running low on skilled workers, and states “If next year is not a recession, it’s going to feel like it.”
Meb asks about the indicators he relies on. David discusses that there are 15 equally weighted indicators he’s looking at, 14 are screaming late cycle, and two stand out the most. ??? Two of the most important indicators for the US are the lack of skilled workers, with a lot of growth coming from people with no better than a high school education, and an immigration policy that has decreased the pool of labor.
This leads into a discussion about inflationary pressures. While the strong dollar has been deflationary, more and more companies are passing on costs to customers. Services, which dominates the consumer spending pie, is sensitive to labor costs, and the inflation we will see going forward will be from wages.
Meb then asks David about his thoughts on how this plays out for investors given the nature of the late cycle. David tells us that historically, the S&P has annualized an average of 17% per year in bull market conditions, however, this time around, it has done so with nearly half the typical economic growth rate to back that up. He suggests investors be defensive, focus on liquidity, have some cash on hand, and emphasize quality. For fixed income investors, be mindful of duration, and if focused on credit, be thoughtful of upcoming refinancing risks.
The conversation then turns to sentiment. David draws parallels to the dotcom bubble, with FAANGM making up 17% of the S&P 500 market cap at September highs, which is similar to the late 1990s when there was a concentration of about six stocks making up a large chunk of the S&P 500 market cap.
Next, Meb asks about David’s views on corporate bonds. David sees this in two lights. First, corporate balance sheets are the weakest they have ever been. The BBB component, which is a downgrade away from being rated “junk,” has grown from 30% of issuance to 50%. The alternative, more positive view is that companies are anticipating a lack of bond issuance coming up.
Meb then asks about the health of the Canadian economy. David explains it is meandering; the oil price has been a drag and has traded at a significant discount to WTI due to a glut of production, and lack of pipeline capacity. In addition, an overinflated housing market that is deflating, and overextended household balance sheets serve as big impediments. Provinces are tending toward a pro-business direction politically, so that could serve to be a positive going forward. As a strategist, he is seeing much of the bad news priced into financial assets as the TSX is trading down to a 13 multiple, in line with emerging markets, and a discount that has been seen only 5% of the time historically.
All this and more in Episode 131.
11/28/2018 • 44 minutes, 7 seconds
#130 - Eric Falkenstein - I Think in the Long Run (Cryptocurrencies) Are Going to Work
In Episode 130, we welcome Eric Falkenstein. The show starts with Meb and Eric discussing ice fishing in Minnesota (where Eric is currently located). But then Meb asks for Eric’s origin story. Eric tells us about being a teacher’s assistant for Hyman Minsky, wanting to be a macro economist, the turn that pushed him toward investing, and a well-timed put option that made him a boatload in the ’87 crash.
Next, the conversation turns toward Eric’s interest in low volatility. He tells us about being one of the first people to study low-vol. He was early, and the broader investing community wasn’t ready for the findings. People dismissed the suggestion that high volatility stocks (with high risk) didn’t outperform low vol stocks. Eric tells us that given all this, “low vol” wasn’t enough of a selling point – you had to layer on another factor just to get people to pay attention.
Meb asks about the main value proposition of low-vol. It is a smoother ride? Better returns? And why does this factor persist?
Eric’s answer touches on CAPM, high beta, low beta, risk, various premiums, high flying stocks, and alpha discovery. This bleeds into a conversation about factoring timing relative to valuations. Eric tells us he tried factor timing, but didn’t find it to be too helpful out of sample.
The conversation bounces around a bit, with the guys touching on Meb’s paper, “A Quantitative Approach to Asset Allocation,” bonds and how the US is flirting with the top bucket of bond yields, whether low vol translates to global markets and different asset classes, and Eric’s take on risk parity.
After that, the guys turn to crypto. Despite the current pullback, Eric believes “in the long run, it’s going to work.” He believes that crypto will eventually replace Dollars as people will want an alternative to fiat currency, something not susceptible to manipulation by politicians. He tells us that he sees a tipping point coming.
There’s plenty more in this episode – Eric’s books, pithy quotes and maxims, how people often think about the specific investment they want, but not the “plumbing” such as the bid/ask spread of that investment, the volume, and so on… And as always, Eric’s most memorable trade.
Get all the details in Episode 130.
11/21/2018 • 51 minutes, 35 seconds
#129 - Meb's Take on Return Expectations, Portfolio Construction, and Practical Market Approaches
Episode 129 is a solo-Meb show. Meb has been out on the road, giving speeches. In this “Mebisode,” you’ll hear Meb’s most recent talk. It covers forward-looking return expectations, an offer to book some time to chat with Meb one-on-one, best and worst starting points for new investment dollars, improving upon the global market portfolio, what corners of the market to look at now, and far more.
If October’s market turbulence left you feeling some jitters, this episode will help you reorient your market views looking forward. All this and more in Episode 129.
11/14/2018 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 19 seconds
#128 - Claude Lamoureux - When You Have to Make A Decision, Always Make the One That Will Help You Sleep Better, Not Eat Better
In Episode 128, we welcome pension fund expert, Claude Lamoureux. We start with Claude’s background, which took him from Met Life to running the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan.
When Claude took over the pension, the fund was invested in just Canadian debt, and the size of the pension obligation was underestimated. Claude decided to use derivatives to diversify the portfolio. He expanded into the S&P, recruited an investment department, and within three years, had successfully reallocated the fund into the broad asset classes they wanted.
Meb asks how investing is different for a pension allocator versus an individual investor managing his own portfolio. Claude tells us that in the pension world, people don’t want to take responsibility. He wanted to do the opposite. He wanted to create a culture where people become entrepreneurial.
This dovetails into a conversation about valuations. Claude is a big believer in having a realistic valuation of liabilities and potential returns. He mentions that today, many U.S. pensions are expecting around 7% returns, which he finds unrealistic. Claude says people should earn the money before they spend it.
The conversation eventually turns toward Claude’s general market approach. Claude had a somewhat traditional policy portfolio, yet used lots of derivatives to diversify into stocks and non-Canadian bonds. He mentions how when you have a large deficit, you must go heavily into equities. He also liked private equity and real estate. And there was a great deal of leverage.
The conversation turns toward problems in the U.S. pension system. Claude gives us his take on the issue. In short, many pension liabilities here in the States aren’t measured properly. He also mentions interest rate assumptions and the fees of outside managers. Finally, Claude points toward politicians and how they don’t want to face the facts.
There’s plenty more in this pension-themed episode: the importance of being a student of the market history…the Canadian Coalition for Good Governance…the sage advice of “when you have to make a decision, always make the one that will let you sleep better, not the one that will let you eat better”…and of course, Claude’s most memorable trade.
All this and more in Episode 128.
10/31/2018 • 51 minutes, 29 seconds
#127 - Radio Show - Meb and Elon Musk Talk Shorting... Conflicting U.S. Valuation Indicators... and Listener Q&A
Episode 127 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover numerous Tweets of the Week from Meb as well as listener Q&A.
We start with Meb telling us about his recent back-and-forth over Twitter with Elon Musk, discussing short-selling. Meb uses this as an example to give us more information on shorting in general, as well as short-lending.
We then answer a question we’ve received (in various forms) for years – “why is the S&P (or whatever) outperforming your strategy?” For anyone looking longingly at S&P returns for the last many years, you might want to listen to this one.
Next up, we tackle some of Meb’s Tweets of the week. There’s a discussion about mixed valuation signals – on one hand, there’s the Russell 3000, with the number of companies trading for more than 10-times revenue now approaching levels from back in 2000. On the other hand, there’s a tweet claiming that “if history is any guide, with 90% confidence rate of positive correlation, this market is going to deliver between 3 to 4% per annum for the next 10 years.” Additional tweets support both sides so Meb tries to resolve it for us.
Then there’s a tweet about the challenges of sticking with your strategy during bad years. It references how the little voice of doubt in your head is all it takes “to turn the hardest resolve into the emotional putty that has destroyed generations of investors.”
There are several other tweet topics – how Research Affiliates views the probability of 5% real returns at just 1.5%... how one forecast for private equity is calling for just 1.5% returns while a different private equity manager is trumpeting the asset class’s superior performance… and how marketing is nearly as important as performance and fees when it comes to attracting investor assets.
We then jump into listener Q&A. Some you’ll hear include:
You often say that over the long term, asset allocation doesn't matter much. However, isn't it important to note that because the nature of compounding, a small difference in CAGR over time can amount to a large dollar amount difference in your savings?
What are your thoughts on using leverage with momentum?
Do you have any recommendations for someone looking to diversify their trend following sleeve by applying a few different rules? For example, I've been doing 1/3 50-DMA, 1/3 200-DMA, and 1/3 crossover.
You speak frequently about the benefit of taking a lump sum and investing now versus later. With current equity valuations (at least US) so frothy, is that still true?
I’m wondering about how to take losses and how to determine when it’s appropriate to take one and when it is not. Do you, as a quant, have set rules in place?
All this and more in Episode 127.
10/24/2018 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 6 seconds
#126 - Karen Finerman - 'Out-of-Favorness' Is Appealing. The Difficult Part is Timing
In Episode 126, we welcome entrepreneur, author, and investor, Karen Finerman.
The episode starts with an interesting connection – Karen and Meb’s wife both attended the same high school in Los Angeles, and apparently, it’s the only high school in the U.S. with a working oil rig on campus. From here, Karen gives us a brief walk-through of her history after graduating Wharton, heading to Wall Street, where she eventually launched her own hedge fund.
Meb asks about the framework she used in the hedge fund as she launched. Karen tells us they were fundamentally focused. Coming out of the savings and loan crisis, there were many smaller banks that had been unfairly stigmatized. Many were absurdly cheap with great balance sheets. Karen was able to take advantage, and developed an expertise in the space. She notes it was interesting how badly the market could mis-price an entire sector. She continues by telling us her strategy was mostly long focused. Her shorts were generally idiosyncratic, intended to hedge the portfolio. Beyond that, tax efficiency was a big focus.
Next, Meb and Karen dig into her methodology for evaluating specific investments. Karen gives us the details, mentioning fundamentals, growth at a reasonable price, users that tend to be inelastic on price, and various other details, culminating with a specific example of a company she likes.
Meb asks what Karen is seeing now. She tells us she’s a little spooked by the tariff situation. Perhaps a big exogenous risk. She then changes gears, going into details about a specific company she likes – Alphabet – noting what she finds attractive (and where she feels they could improve). But overall, she’s very impressed.
The conversation gravitates toward “selling”. After all, buying is generally the easier part – it’s when to get rid of an investment that can be tough. Karen tells us that if an investment hits their target return, they’ll lighten their position. These leads into a conversation about investment theses and how that plays into selling.
The years 1999 and 2000 come up, with Karen telling us she feels her group did the right thing then, avoiding getting sucked into the bubble. The new metrics at that time (stocks trading at a multiple of eyeballs) just didn’t make sense to her. She notes there are some similarities today, as there are certain companies that are losing lots of money despite posting growth numbers.
This dovetails into a discussion of Tesla. It turns out Meb and Elon Musk shared a few words about short-selling on Twitter on the morning we recorded this podcast. Surprising no one, Elon is not a fan of shorts. Listen in for the details.
There’s way more in this great episode: the ETF-ization of investing… Karen’s book… How to address the great investing education problem… and of course, Karen’s most memorable trade – actually, she shares two, a good one and a bad one. On the good side, there was an undervalued convenience chain in which Karen got involved at the right time and enjoyed a nice payday when Diamond Shamrock showed up at the buyer’s table. The bad trade relates to when United Airlines was supposed to go private. Karen didn’t factor in the possibility that the deal would collapse. Just how bad was the damage?
Find out in Episode 126.
10/17/2018 • 53 minutes, 17 seconds
#125 - Tom Barton - The Biggest Problem Investors Have is Things Change...and They Don't Change
In Episode 125, we welcome famed short-seller and early stage investor, Tom Barton.
We start by going way back, after Tom graduated from Vanderbilt. He walks us through his early career experiences which helped him sharpen his business analysis skills, as well as his operational skills. He developed a great understanding of different industries, yet also what it was like to actually work in them. This was the foundation for the short-selling career that was soon to begin.
In 1983 Tom went to work for a wealthy Dallas family, and in the process met one of the original fraud short-sellers, nicknamed “The Mortician”. Tom knew nothing about stocks at that point, but under the guidance of his new mentor, realized that his analytical skills aligned perfectly with sniffing out short-selling candidates. He reasoned “isn’t it easier to spot something that’s going to fail than be certain on something that’s going to succeed?” He then began digging into the research, and finding slews of fraudulent companies.
What follows is an incredibly entertaining story-after-story of the various frauds Tom sniffed out (and made money on). There was a company claiming it could change the molecular composition of water… one deceiving customers about building-restoration after fires… a biotech claiming it could cure HIV… By the time 1990 rolled around, Tom’s returns were over 80% and he had generated a couple billion dollars.
There’s a great bit in here about “The Wolf of Wall Street” (Stratton Oakmont). Tom is the guy who took them down. Related, the “Wolf” himself snaked an apartment out from underneath Meb a few years ago out here in Manhattan Beach, CA. The guys share a laugh over this.
Eventually the conversation morphs from short-selling to when Tom’s strategy changed to going long. It involves managing money for George Soros, and some of Tom’s early long winners.
This dovetails into how Tom got into biotech, which is where he’s spending lots of time today. Tom tells us about his introduction into gene therapy, then successes with the company Intrexon. He talks us through some small companies he’s been a part of that have already sold for huge paydays…for instance, one purchased by Novartis for $9B.
This is a must-listen for any short-sellers, market historians, private investors, and biotech investors. And Tom’s most memorable trade is a doozy. This one involves buying puts for a hundred and something thousand dollars…which he sold for $13M.
These details and far more in Episode 125.
10/10/2018 • 1 hour, 25 minutes, 48 seconds
Bonus Episode: Wes Gray - Factor Investing is More Art, and Less Science
We recently published The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2. The first book was a hit, with MoneyWeek concluding that it “should be on every investor’s bookshelf.”
But we made the second volume even better – we expanded it to include 41 hand-selected investment articles, written by some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world.
We thought it would be fun to bring on some of the authors so that they could read their specific chapter from the book. That’s what you’re getting in today’s special bonus episode.
If you’re interested in picking up a copy of The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2, head on over to Amazon or our publisher’s website, which is Harriman House.
Also, know that your purchase would benefit charity, as all writer-proceeds go to the charity of the specific author’s choosing.
So, enough from me, let’s let Wes take over with this special bonus episode.
10/8/2018 • 52 minutes, 35 seconds
#124 - Howard Marks - It's Not What You Buy, It's What You Pay for It That Determines Whether Something is a Good Investment
In Episode 124, we welcome legendary investor, Howard Marks. Meb begins with a quote from Howard’s new book, Mastering the Market Cycle, and asks him to expound. Howard gives us his top-line take on market cycles, ending with the idea that if you understand them, you can profit from them.
Meb follows up by asking about Howard’s framework for evaluating where we are in the cycle. Rather than look at every input as individual, Howard looks at overall patterns. What is the collective mood? Or is it depressed, sad, and people don’t want to buy? Or is it buoyant? Second, are investors optimistic and thrilled with their portfolios and eager to add more, therein increasing risk? Or are investors regretful and hesitant, burned by recent experience? Then there are quantitative aspects – valuations, yield spreads, cap rates, multiples, and so on. All of these variables help give Howard a feel for whether assets are high- or low-priced.
Next, Meb asks Howard to use Oaktree’s actions during the Financial Crisis as a real-world example of how an investor could act upon cycles. Howard tells us there are two parts to what happened during the Crisis – what Oaktree did during the run-up to the meltdown, and then what it did during the event itself. In short, Oaktree was cautious during the lead-up. They raised their standards for investments. Why? Howard notes that they didn’t know ahead of time how bad things would be. Rather, they were hesitant because they looked at the securities being issued, and it seemed that every day, something was coming out that didn’t deserve to be issued. This was a tip-off.
Then the event happened, culminating in Lehman bankruptcy, and that’s when Oaktree became very aggressive, buying half a billion dollars each week for 15 weeks. Howard tells us that, yes, our job as investors is to be skeptical, but sometimes that skepticism needs to be applied to our own fears. In other words, skepticism also might appear like “no, that scenario is too bad to actually be true.”
Meb notes that the challenge is investors want precision, picking the exact top and bottom. But this isn’t really how it works. Meb asks if there a time when Howard felt he misinterpreted a point in the market cycle.
Before answering Meb’s questions, Howard agrees that trying to find the bottom or top is a huge mistake. He notes that trying to find the perfect day upon which to buy or sell is impossible. In terms of potentially misreading the cycle, Howard tells us that Oaktree has been perhaps too conservative over the last few years, so they haven’t realized all the gains of the market. That said, he stands by his decision telling us, “anybody who buys or holds because of the belief that something that’s fully valued will become overvalued…is embarking on a dangerous course.”
Meb asks how Howard sees the world today.
Howard tells us we’re in the 8th inning of this bull market. Assets are highly priced relative to history. People are bullish. Risk aversion is low. He notes it’s a time for caution – but – we have no idea how many innings there will be in this game.
What follows is a great conversation about bull markets, what ends bull markets, and how to implement market cycles into an investment approach. The guys touch on investor exuberance… whether markets need to be exuberant for a bull market to end… bullish action despite bullish temperament… the need to “calibrate” your portfolio… and the average investor’s ability to live with pain.
There’s so much more in this episode: How Howard’s market approach has evolved over the years… how “it’s not what you buy, it’s what you pay for it that determines whether something is a good investment or bad investment”… Howard’s thoughts on contrarian investing… and, of course, his most memorable trade. This one yielded him 23x.
What are the details? Find out in Episode 124.
10/3/2018 • 43 minutes, 39 seconds
Bonus Episode: Russel Kinnel - Mind the Gap
We recently published The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2. The first book was a hit, with MoneyWeek concluding that it “should be on every investor’s bookshelf.”
But we made the second volume even better – we expanded it to include 41 hand-selected investment articles, written by some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world.
We thought it would be fun to bring on some of the authors so that they could read their specific chapter from the book. That’s what you’re getting in today’s special bonus episode.
If you’re interested in picking up a copy of The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2, head on over to Amazon or our publisher’s website, which is Harriman House.
Also, know that your purchase would benefit charity, as all writer-proceeds go to the charity of the specific author’s choosing.
So, enough from me, let’s let Russel take over with this special bonus episode.
10/1/2018 • 9 minutes, 21 seconds
#123 - Fabrice Grinda - We're Still at the Very Beginning of the Tech Revolution... We Are Day One
In Episode 123, we welcome entrepreneur and renowned angel investor, Fabrice Grinda. The guys begin by discussing their mutual love for skiing, talking about heli-skiing in Canada, powder skiing in Japan, and the steeps of Chamonix in France.
Meb asks Fabrice to recap his background. What follows is a fascinating look at the professional path of a wildly-successful entrepreneur and angel investor. Fabrice’s history involves consulting with McKinsey, building the equivalent of eBay in Europe and South America, starting another company that brought ringtones, mobile games, and wallpaper to the US (and eventually did $200M in revenues), and then consulting for fellow CEOs. Ultimately, Fabrice and his partner launched FJ Investments, which is where he’s currently focused.
Meb asks about Fabrice’s investment approach and the frameworks he uses. Fabrice tells us he invests in about 75 new startups each year, mostly seed and pre-seed. He writes smaller checks (about $500K), as compared to the bigger VC firms. He provides us insights into his selection criteria – one of the most important of which is unit economics. The degree to which a founder understands his/her economics is an indicator as to how well he/she understand the business. Fabrice has deployed about $140M to date, mostly personal money. He’s had 150 realized exits on 400 investments, with a realized IRR that’s pretty staggering. You’ll have to listen to get that detail.
The guys hit on a handful of topics next: Fabrice’s experience with Beepi, which ends with Fabrice’s advice to “nail it before you scale it”…. Why investing in the U.S. is often a wiser choice than looking internationally… Fabrice’s preference for investing in marketplace-oriented businesses… And how “we’re still at the very beginning of the tech revolution… we are day one.”
Next, the guys talk about the specifics of creating an angel portfolio, with Meb bringing up the phrase “spray and pray”. Fabrice tells us that’s not his methodology. He’s more selective. That said, in private markets, returns tend to follow power law, meaning the top few deals account for most of the returns so it’s important to have some of those deals in your portfolio. Given this, for most people, there’s real value in diversification.
Meb asks what lessons Fabrice has learned throughout his experiences so far. Fabrice tells us that if you’re going to invest in this asset class, you need to be diversified. He mentions that if you have less than a certain amount of investments, you’re going to lose money.
Another lesson is that investors needs to stick to their guns. For instance, Fabrice has found that his thesis, the company team, the business, and the valuation (deal terms) must all be within his desired parameters in order to move forward. There was a time when he would fall in love with a founder, and would use that as an excuse to slide on some of his other criteria. But doing so sometimes lost him money.
Other lessons involve honesty and transparency, as well as the importance of knowing your true value-add.
There’s way more in this angel-themed episode: The current angel market, including opportunities and valuations… How Fabrice sees the broader economy and recession risk… How a crypto-hacker got into Fabrice’s crypto wallet… and Fabrice’s most memorable trade. Any entrepreneurs will likely be able to relate to this one.
All these details and more in Episode 123.
9/26/2018 • 59 minutes, 34 seconds
Bonus Episode: Rick Friedman & Anna Chetoukhina - FAANG SCHMAANG
We recently published The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2. The first book was a hit, with MoneyWeek concluding that it “should be on every investor’s bookshelf.”
But we made the second volume even better – we expanded it to include 41 hand-selected investment articles, written by some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world.
We thought it would be fun to bring on some of the authors so that they could read their specific chapter from the book. That’s what you’re getting in today’s special bonus episode.
If you’re interested in picking up a copy of The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2, head on over to Amazon or our publisher’s website, which is Harriman House.
Also, know that your purchase would benefit charity, as all writer-proceeds go to the charity of the specific author’s choosing.
So, enough from me, let’s let Rick take over with this special bonus episode.
9/24/2018 • 19 minutes, 12 seconds
#122 - Phil Haslett - It's a Place to Connect Interested Buyers and Interested Sellers...in Late-Stage, Pre-IPO Tech Shares
In Episode 122, we welcome investor and entrepreneur, Phil Haslett. Meb jumps in, asking Phil to tell us more about his company, Equity Zen.
Phil gives us an example involving a hypothetical employee. This employee owns equity in her private company but wants some liquidity from her stock options. Equity Zen is a platform where she can sell some her shares to a private investor looking to investor in that company, even though it’s not a publicly-traded company. So, Equity Zen is a place that connect buyers and sellers of late-stage, private companies that are pre-IPO.
Meb asks about the process. There’s rarely great information on these private companies – for instance, their valuations and revenues. So, what’s the discovery process like on Equity Zen?
Phil tells us that once you get registered and create an account, you can browse the available deals. There will be information about the companies based on what’s available from the public domain. Phil agrees there’s often not great information, so Equity Zen tries to provide as much as possible, backing out revenue and growth numbers. They also show a particular company’s cap table, how they’ve raised money over time, and on what terms. Equity Zen works with shareholders to establish their pricing targets. So, buyers will see the specific price at which a seller is willing to do a deal.
The guys get even more detailed here – discussing fees, whether a buyer actually holders real shares in the target company or not, what happens in certain hypotheticals, and Phil’s thoughts on “carry” and why he’s frustrated with carry applied to a single investment.
Next, Meb asks about the type of companies that end up in Equity Zen’s offerings. Phil tells us they’ve worked with about 110 companies. The valuations have ranged from $500M to $20B, with concentrations toward unicorns. They typically invest in companies that have VC backings. These VCs have their own ideas of exits, which often means nearer-term liquidity is a goal.
The guys get a bit broader here. Discussing where we are in the private company cycle, and how that affects the buying/selling volume on Equity Zen. They then touch on the state of the IPO market. Phil gives us an interesting perspective on companies that stay private (despite being big enough to go public) and the effect that can have on employees, liquidity, and morale.
The conversation drifts toward what the response has been from the companies themselves. Do they see these private transactions as a good perk, or as an evil process? Phil tells us attitudes have changed over time. Back in 2010, the idea of selling shares was taboo. But today, companies are approaching Equity Zen in order to discuss a process for providing liquidity. It’s becoming a competitive advantage for talent. Phil believes this trend will continue.
There’s plenty more in this episode: a new accreditation definition, and what it means for small investors… the best way to build a private company portfolio… what to evaluate in order to find the right companies for investment… whether buyers should be concerned about differences in share classes… other sites/resources that do a good job of education for private, late stage investors… and Phil’s most memorable trade. This one involves the game, Magic: The Gathering.
Get all the details in Episode 122.
9/19/2018 • 59 minutes, 13 seconds
Bonus Episode: Michael Philbrick - Skis and Bikes: The Untold Story of Diversification
We recently published The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2. The first book was a hit, with MoneyWeek concluding that it “should be on every investor’s bookshelf.”
But we made the second volume even better – we expanded it to include 41 hand-selected investment articles, written by some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world.
We thought it would be fun to bring on some of the authors so that they could read their specific chapter from the book. That’s what you’re getting in today’s special bonus episode.
If you’re interested in picking up a copy of The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2, head on over to Amazon or our publisher’s website, which is Harriman House.
Also, know that your purchase would benefit charity, as all writer-proceeds go to the charity of the specific author’s choosing.
So, enough from me, let’s let Mike take over with this special bonus episode.
9/17/2018 • 42 minutes, 50 seconds
#121 - Pim van Vliet - The Reality Is High-Risk Stocks Earn Low Returns
In Episode 121, we welcome fellow quant, Pim van Vliet. If you’re a low-vol investor, or having been wanting to learn more about low-vol, this is the episode for you.
Meb dives straight in, opening with a quote from Pim: "The low-volatility effect is perhaps the largest anomaly in finance, challenging the basic trade-off between risk and return, as higher risk does not lead to higher returns. Still, it remains one of the least utilized factor premiums in financial markets." He asks Pim to explain.
Pim tell us that low-volatility is the biggest anomaly of them all. People have trouble embracing the concept. We’ve been trained to believe that higher risk should be rewarded with higher returns, but Pim walks us through some counterarguments. He goes on to explain that CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) is great in theory, yet bad at describing reality. He tells us that “the reality is high risk stocks earn low returns.”
Next, Meb brings up a paper Pim wrote called “The Volatility Effect” and asks Pim to walk us through it. Pim tells us one of the broad takeaways is that low-vol works cross borders (unlike some other factors). It’s not just effective in the U.S. – it’s also been proven out in Europe and Japan. In addition, this alpha seems to be getting stronger now rather than waning as have other factors when their visibility has increased.
Meb asks about Rob Arnott and factor-timing/factor valuations. Does factor valuation matter?
Pim agrees with Rob in that valuation does matter. If you only look at low-vol, you might end up buying “expensive defensive”. If so, then yes, your expected returns will be lower. That’s why Pim includes a value filter. He looks at “multi-factor defensive”. Pim mentions Cliff Asness and notes that he likes incorporating momentum into his approach as well.
The conversation bounces around a bit: where is Pim finding opportunities around the world now… additional details on how low-vol works across countries, sectors, and asset classes… and how low-vol complements a CAPE approach, pointing toward some effective defensive market strategies.
Next, Meb asks about potential biases. For instance, if you focus on low-vol, could that mean you’ll end up with a basket of, say, utility stocks and no tech? Pim tells us that, yes, if you focus purely on low-vol, you could get more sector and country effect. But he goes on to tell us how investors might mitigate that.
There’s plenty more in this fun, quant-driven episode – a discuss of the definition of risk (volatility versus permanent loss of capital)… factor fishing and data mining… how low-vol works from a portfolio perspective… Pim’s forecast of the future… and Pim’s most memorable trade. This is a great story, highlighting how an early loss delivered such a powerful learning lesson, that it probably ended up making Pim money in the long run.
Get all the details in Episode 121.
9/12/2018 • 59 minutes, 27 seconds
Bonus Episode: Leigh Drogen - Revenge of the Humans
We recently published The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2. The first book was a hit, with MoneyWeek concluding that it “should be on every investor’s bookshelf.”
But we made the second volume even better – we expanded it to include 41 hand-selected investment articles, written by some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world.
We thought it would be fun to bring on some of the authors so that they could read their specific chapter from the book. That’s what you’re getting in today’s special bonus episode.
If you’re interested in picking up a copy of The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2, head on over to Amazon or our publisher’s website, which is Harriman House.
Also, know that your purchase would benefit charity, as all writer-proceeds go to the charity of the specific author’s choosing.
So, enough from me, let’s let Leigh take over with this special bonus episode.
9/10/2018 • 1 hour, 19 minutes, 30 seconds
Bonus Episode: Jeremy Schwartz - Net Buybacks Supplement Dividend Yields and Support Future Per Share Growth
We recently published The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2. The first book was a hit, with MoneyWeek concluding that it “should be on every investor’s bookshelf.”
But we made the second volume even better – we expanded it to include 41 hand-selected investment articles, written by some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world.
We thought it would be fun to bring on some of the authors so that they could read their specific chapter from the book. That’s what you’re getting in today’s special bonus episode.
If you’re interested in picking up a copy of The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2, head on over to Amazon or our publisher’s website, which is Harriman House.
Also, know that your purchase would benefit charity, as all writer-proceeds go to the charity of the specific author’s choosing.
So, enough from me, let’s let Jeremy take over with this special bonus episode.
9/3/2018 • 7 minutes, 3 seconds
#119 - Tom Dorsey - Fundamentals Answer the First Question 'What Should I Buy?' The Technical Side Answers the Question "When?'
In Episode 119, we welcome entrepreneur and technical analyst expert, Tom Dorsey.
Meb begins by asking about a book which Tom claims had a tremendous influence on his entire life. From this, Tom tells us the story of being a young broker, eventually introduced to a book called The Three Point Reversal Method of Point & Figure Stock Market Trading by A.W. Cohen. After reading just the first paragraph, the clouds on Wall Street parted and he saw clearly. In the end, it’s the irrefutable laws of supply and demand that cause prices to change.
Meb asks for more details, so Tom tells us how Point & Figure charting was created in the early 1900s. You’re watching the up and down movements of an asset – those movements represented by Xs and Os. You’re looking for patterns in these up and down movements.
Meb asks how one goes from charting these Xs and Os into building an actual strategy. Tom gives us an example using just two stocks, Coke and Pepsi. He walks us through how we would analyze the price movements relative to one another to determine which one might be the best investment at that moment. It’s a discussion of relative strength investing.
Meb asks if this approach means an investor can totally ignore fundamentals and value. Tom tells us that fundamentals answer the first question – what should I buy? But relative strength answers the question, when should I buy? You can be a value investor, but you may not want to be the typical value investor who buys a value play, sits back, and waits for a long time before other people see that he’s right. Tom would rather get the stocks that are ready to move now. So, he tells us to take the fundamentals and work from there.
Next, the guys get into a discussion that bounces around a bit: smart indexing… the beginnings of ETFs at the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (Tom was in the middle of it from basically the beginning)… and how 92% of active managers never outperform the S&P. But this last point dovetails into a broader conversation of whether “the S&P” can beat “the S&P”. The topic touches on the difference between cap and equal weighting, as well as myriad other indexes that might exist within the broader S&P universe. One of the takeaways is that index investing can be harder than you might think. He suggests looking at all the indexes, then using relative strength to narrow it down.
Meb asks what the world looks like to Tom today. What areas are showing the most strength? Tom tells us the strength has been in small caps for a few years now. Value has been hurt, which points toward the problem with value – the asset can be down and out, but still not move north as you want it to.
There’s plenty more: the various ways to implement a relative strength strategy… Tom’s affinity for selling covered calls… the benefits of automated investing… how Tom’s team is beginning to apply their strategies to crypto… and an upcoming investing forum Tom will be a part of consisting of five market veterans with a collective two-hundred years of market experience.
And of course, we have Tom’s most memorable trade. This one involves 10 shares of a certain biotech stock that raced higher and made a huge difference for one of Tom’s friends in need.
Get all the details in Episode 119.
8/29/2018 • 52 minutes, 41 seconds
Bonus Episode: Elroy Dimson - The Evolution of Equity Markets
We recently published The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2. The first book was a hit, with MoneyWeek concluding that it “should be on every investor’s bookshelf.”
But we made the second volume even better – we expanded it to include 41 hand-selected investment articles, written by some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world.
We thought it would be fun to bring on some of the authors so that they could read their specific chapter from the book. That’s what you’re getting in today’s special bonus episode.
If you’re interested in picking up a copy of The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2, head on over to Amazon or our publisher’s website, which is Harriman House.
Also, know that your purchase would benefit charity, as all writer-proceeds go to the charity of the specific author’s choosing.
So, enough from me, let’s let Elroy take over with this special bonus episode.
8/27/2018 • 13 minutes, 28 seconds
#118 - Radio Show - Record-Setting US Valuations... Emerging Market Opportunities... VC Bad Behavior… and Listener Q&A
Episode 118 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover numerous Tweets of the Week from Meb, as well as some write-in questions.
We start by discussing articles Meb posted in his Tweets of the Week. These include a piece by Jason Zweig about how your broker might be making 10-times more money off your cash balance than you could make on it. Then there’s discussion of valuations – a chart by Leuthold shows how one measure of US market valuation has matched its 2000 level, and another has doubled it. At the same time, Longboard released a chart referencing a Goldman market outlook that claims “in 99% of the time at current valuation levels, equity returns have been single digit or negative”. We talk about US valuations and when “selling” might trump buy-and-hold.
Then we jump to foreign valuations. GMO believes emerging markets are the biggest opportunity relative to other assets in the past 20+ years. Meb clarifies what this really means. Then there’s discussion of home country geographic sector bias, whether the VC market is in a bubble (Meb tells us about some bad behavior he’s beginning to see in the space), and how the American savings rate is pretty grim.
We then get into listener Q&A. Some that you’ll hear Meb address include:
Are momentum funds just camouflaging another factor? For instance, if Value became the “in” factor, wouldn’t Momentum pick it up, so Momentum would then just look like a Value fund?
Assuming the U.S. economy does not enter a recession in the near future, the Shiller PE’s 10-year earnings average will soon consist of all economic boom and no bust as the depressed earnings of 2008 and 2009 roll out of its calculation. How useful is a CAPE that only includes a period of profit expansion?
Regarding your global value strategy, have you ever tested the strategy using relative CAPE ratios versus absolute to determine country allocations in order to avoid countries with structurally low CAPE ratios?
I've never heard of a 401k plan offering ETF options. Is there a reason logistically, legally, etc. that prevents 401k plans from offering ETF options?
How do I structure my portfolio for a 4% yield, after tax?
I like your shareholder yield strategy, but if I get capital returned through buybacks and share appreciation, how do I get monthly income without selling shares and triggering taxes? I just don't see how I can implement a monthly income plan with this strategy.
All this and more in Episode 118.
8/22/2018 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 13 seconds
Bonus Episode: Ehren Stanhope - Microcaps, Factor Spreads, Structural Biases, and the Institutional Imperative
We recently published The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2. The first book was a hit, with MoneyWeek concluding that it “should be on every investor’s bookshelf.”
But we made the second volume even better – we expanded it to include 41 hand-selected investment articles, written by some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world.
We thought it would be fun to bring on some of the authors so that they could read their specific chapter from the book. That’s what you’re getting in today’s special bonus episode.
If you’re interested in picking up a copy of The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2, head on over to Amazon or our publisher’s website, which is Harriman House.
Also, know that your purchase would benefit charity, as all writer-proceeds go to the charity of the specific author’s choosing.
So, enough from me, let’s let Ehren take over with this special bonus episode.
8/15/2018 • 20 minutes, 31 seconds
#117 - Steve Lockshin - We Think the Estate and Tax Planning Levers are the Most Important Levers to Push on for Clients
In Episode 117, we welcome entrepreneur and wealth advisor, Steve Lockshin. At Meb’s request, Steve walks us through his professional background in the financial services industry. It’s an interesting story, reflecting how wealth management has changed over the decades.
Meb picks up on a term Steve used in describing his early years – “producer” (referencing an advisor) – making the point that if advisors were expected to produce revenue to the degree that “producer” was their name, it pointed toward a potential conflict with the client’s goals. Steve agrees, noting that the conflicts of interest in the business are challenging. He offers us an example using a mortgage payment scenario. If a client allocated capital toward paying down a high-rate mortgage rather than toward funding his equity portfolio, that debt paydown would benefit him, yet would decrease the advisor’s AUM, hurting the advisor’s personal revenue. Given this, the advisor may not be incentivized to make recommendations that are always in the best interest of the client.
Meb asks for more details about Steve’s fee structure at AdvicePeriod, and why it was set up that way. Steve walks us through the details, noting that their fee structure largely emanates from the value they bring. So, their fees are always clear and capped.
This bleeds into a conversation about an advisor’s biggest value add. Meb wonders if it’s estate planning and tax issues, or if it varies. Steve answers by first referencing portfolio construction, asking a question – if we take the top quartile of advisors, what does Meb think they’d produce, over a 20-year period, in true alpha above the market? Meb answers, basically 0%. Steve agrees, noting portfolio construction is not the real source of advisor alpha. Instead, he points toward taxes as a huge source of real value. He concludes saying “Turning that tax dial is a huge return for clients” and “We think the estate planning and tax planning levers are the most important levers to push on for clients”.
The guys bounce around a bit here, discussing high advisor fees, and how the industry was able to hide them for years… the biggest problems Steve sees with new clients when they bring over their portfolios… and how the general advisor/client process works. But from here, the conversation turns toward how one might find a great wealth manager. It’s challenging, as laws prohibit client testimonials, and as Steve says, most clients don’t know which questions need to be asked. He gives us a few examples of good questions:
What will your fees be if I tell you that you can’t use any of your own funds?
How often would we meet?
What software will you use?
How much access to information will I have?
What’s your transparency level?
Next, Meb asks how things look going forward on the investment advisor side. Steve tells us that as soon as info becomes accessible and digestible by investors, we’ll see people behave differently. We’ll keep seeing fees come down, and transactional fees will go away. And when moving your entire account from one group to another becomes a matter of just a few mouse clicks, we’ll see a massive shift.
Meb asks when we’ll see an “automated Lockshin”, meaning when will wealth management become automated? Steve thinks it’s far closer than people think. He references Google Duplex, which is basically a computer speaking to us, yet fooling the human on the other end of the phone into believe he/she is conversing with another real human.
There’s way more in this episode: Steve’s favorite private investment right now… how tax planning is the biggest alpha generator out there but doesn’t receive the emphasis is deserves… how the industry goes out of its way to complicate things for investors… Vanguard Life Strategy Funds… and of course, Steve’s most memorable trade.
What was it? Find out in Episode 117.
8/15/2018 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 16 seconds
Bonus Episode: Todd Tresidder – The Great Financial Forecasting Hoax
We recently published The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2. The first book was a hit, with MoneyWeek concluding that it “should be on every investor’s bookshelf.”
But we made the second volume even better – we expanded it to include 41 hand-selected investment articles, written by some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world.
We thought it would be fun to bring on some of the authors so that they could read their specific chapter from the book. That’s what you’re getting in today’s special bonus episode.
If you’re interested in picking up a copy of The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2, head on over to Amazon or our publisher’s website, which is Harriman House.
Also, know that your purchase would benefit charity, as all writer-proceeds go to the charity of the specific author’s choosing.
So, enough from me, let’s let Todd take over with this special bonus episode.
8/13/2018 • 20 minutes, 47 seconds
#116 - Sarah Ketterer - Without a Quant Risk Model, I'd Argue an Investment Manager is Completely Blind
In Episode 116, we welcome entrepreneur, CEO, and fund manager, Sarah Ketterer. Meb dives right in, asking about a quote on Causeway’s website which references how the shop blends fundamental and quant analysis. Sarah gives us her approach, which details how the fundamental and quant approaches work together, supporting one another.
Meb pushes for more details. What’s Causeway’s actual process? Does it begin with a quant screen then an analyst takes over, or the other way around?
Sarah tells us it depends on the client. She provides more details, but her feelings about the importance of a quant approach really comes through when she tells us “without a quant risk model, I’d argue an investment manager is completely blind”.
Next, Meb brings up value, and asks what role it plays in Sarah’s approach, and how she sees value today.
Sarah tell us that every strategy Causeway manages has a value emphasis to some degree. The more fundamental, the heavier the value exposure. And the quant-focused funds also have value, but those use momentum as well. This dovetails into a discussion of how not all clients want to sit through deep value cycles. They want returns now, not on a rolling 3-5-year basis. But a great value manager has to think in that time frame. Sarah notes how investors have to be patient with a value approach, yet human nature is not inherently patient.
This bleeds into a discussion of cheap countries and career risk, and the gap between value and growth – Sarah tells us this gap has reached extreme levels. Meb asks about the opportunities she’s seeing. Sarah notes how the opportunities depend on the amount of risk you want to take. For instance, she can find you a good Turkish bank right now, but do you want that level of risk exposure?
There’s way more in this episode – some opportunistic finds in Britain… Why Sarah is “wildly bullish” on China… Sarah’s view on the biggest mistakes investors make regarding risk… And, of course, her most memorable trade.
All this and more in Episode 116.
8/8/2018 • 47 minutes, 50 seconds
#115 - Steve Glickman - Opportunity Zones: Ultimately, If You Hold for…10 Years or More…You Don’t Pay Any New Capital Gains – Ever
In Episode 115, we welcome entrepreneur and opportunity zone expert, Steve Glickman.
Meb jumps right in, asking “what is an opportunity zone?”
Steve tells us about this brand-new program that was created this past December. Most people don’t know about it yet. It was the only bipartisan piece of the Investing in Opportunity Act, which was legislation packed into the tax reform bill.
Opportunity zones were designed to combine scaled investment capital with lower-income communities that haven’t seen investment in decades. You can essentially roll-over capital gains into opportunity funds – special investment vehicles that have to deploy their capital in these pre-determined opportunity zones. It could be a real estate play, a business venture play, virtually anything as long as the investment is in the opportunity zone and meets the appointed criteria. And the benefit of doing this? Steve tells us “ultimately, if you hold for…10 years or more in these opportunity zones…you don’t pay any new capital gains – ever.”
Meb hones in on the benefits, clarifying they are: a tax deferral, a step-up in basis, and any gains on the investment are free of capital gains taxes. He then asks where these zones exist now, how one finds them, and how they were created.
Steve tell us the zones exist in every US state and territory, including Puerto Rico – in fact, the entire island of Puerto Rico is now an opportunity zone. Steve goes on to give us more details.
Soon, the conversation turns toward the problem these opportunity zones are trying to solve – the growing inequality in America. As part of this discussion, Steve tells us about his group, EIG. He created it to work on bipartisan problems that had private sector-oriented solutions. He wanted to address the unevenness of economic growth in the US – why are some areas getting all the capital, while others are getting left behind?
Meb points the guys back to opportunity zones and how an investor can take part. He asks what’s the next step after selling all my investments for capital gains. What then?
Steve tells us all the capital has to flow through an opportunity fund. It can be a corporation or partnership, include just one investor or many, can be focused on multiple investments or just one…. Most people have identified a project in which they want to invest, but some groups are now creating funds to raise capital, then will find a deal. Steve provides more details on all this.
There’s way more in this special episode: the two industries that the government won’t allow to be included in opportunity zone investments… The three different tests for how a business qualifies as an opportunity zone investment… What regulatory clarity is currently missing from the IRS… The most common naysayer pushback they’re hearing… The slippery issue of gentrification… And far more.
Opportunity zones have the potential to be a game-changer for many investors. Get all the details in Episode 115.
8/1/2018 • 52 minutes, 21 seconds
#114 - David Gladstone - Farmland Is One of the Most Stable Assets One Can Own
In Episode 114, we welcome entrepreneur and author, David Gladstone. We start with David’s backstory, which dovetails into how he got into farming, and subsequently, launching a farmland REIT.
Meb asks for David’s broad thoughts on investing in farmland.
David tells us “farmland is one of the most stable assets one can own.” He goes on to say how it correlates with gold, not with the stock market. David gives us an overview of the farming landscape – how corn and wheat are the big categories, but this isn’t where David goes with his REIT, too much competition. He focuses more on berries and specialty crops, which are far more profitable. He mentions how tree/vine/bush crops have a great long-term record for making money for farmers.
Next, Meb asks about operations – does David manage the farms? Just rent them out?
David tells us they use triple net leases with their farmer tenants. Sometimes they will also have a revenue participation, but that’s unusual. David goes on to say how farmland is becoming more scare, so they choose farmers who are experienced and trusted. As an investment, farmland has done quite well. NCREIF publishes a farm index – it has done 12.2% annually over the last 10 years. David believes that due to the growth and stability of farmland, it’s an excellent place to put money – especially as it’s a hedge against inflation. He references a Buffett quote that touts owning farmland versus owning gold.
Meb asks whether there are any current trends in the farming space. David tells us the number of acres per person is declining. It’s now down to about 0.5 farmed acres per person in the world. The conversation segues into water. David makes the point that his team only buys farms with access to their own water. This makes a huge difference. He references the California drought in recent years and notes it was an incredibly profitable period for them since their farms, with their own water supply, continued operations.
Next, Meb asks about David’s framework for finding new farms. What’s the process, and what’s the capital structure?
David tells us that’s what important is to have a tremendously strong farmer. They only deal with the top 20% of farmers in any growing area, so it’s a detailed vetting process. In terms of capital structure, they tend to finance about 50% of the purchase price. They use a variety of lenders.
The guys soon turn toward “risks.” David tell us that rising rates are a risk since they use debt. As rates rise, the price of the farms they purchase will need to drop in order to make the numbers work. Another risk are tariffs. This has a been a big problem for seeds. What if China or Mexico reduces their purchases?
There’s far more in this unique episode: David’s thoughts on expanding farmland REITs globally… the role of automation in farming… and why there aren’t more farmland REITS. If you’re curious about farmland as an investment, this is definitely the episode for you.
Get all the details in Episode 114.
7/25/2018 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 16 seconds
#113 - Stanley Altshuller - I’m Bullish On Active Management, But I Think That You Need A Correction For People To Remember Why Hedge Funds Exist In The First Place
In Episode 113, we welcome entrepreneur and hedge fund expert, Stan Altshuller. Meb starts by asking Stan to give us his backstory, and how he came to co-found Novus Partners.
After Stan gives us his origin story, Meb asks about Stan’s broad approach to the markets. Stan tells us that at Novus, they start with data. This data encompasses everything from public data from regulatory filings, to private data from daily holdings reports. They bring it into an accessible, searchable database. Then engineers and programmers write various algorithms that capture and present the details of that data. This helps identify takeaways such as where the risks might be in a portfolio, and how various portfolios compare to others.
Meb asks about common takeaways from all this analysis. Stan points toward “diworsification.” As the name implies, too many investors have far too many holdings in their portfolio – from a diversification perspective, more than is needed or helpful. Stan tells us that 12 different investments is as beneficial as 100. Another takeaway Stan points toward is “conviction.” Are you truly adding value to your portfolio given your weighting decisions? Meb notes how you have to have greater position concentration to make a real difference in your portfolio. He then asks how Stan measures conviction.
Stan tells us that conviction can mean different things. For equities, the highest ROI comes from stocks with a 7.5% position or higher. But if your portfolio is highly diversified, you’re unlikely to have a single position of this size. Stan adds that, for an allocator, the threshold is about 5%.
Next, Meb asks about the state of active management. With so many headlines about flows going into passive, what are Stan’s thoughts?
Stan gives us a great synopsis, covering “dispersion” and “correlation.” The presence, or lack thereof, of these market characteristics can have much to do with the success of active managers. Overall, Stan says conditions are now setting up such that we’re seeing alpha being generated in the hedge fund space again. He tells us “I’m bullish on active management, but I think that you need a correction for people to remember why hedge funds exist in the first place.”
Meb asks about Stan’s process – what analytics help identify the good funds, what they look for, the red herrings… Stan says the first thing to do is ask whether the manager is telling you the same thing as what the data is telling you. You’re basically double-checking the manager’s stated skill set. Next, analyze whether the manager is truly going to add value to a portfolio. For instance, if you add another manager, how much diversification benefit will t actually provide? If not much, do you really want to pay their fee? Then you look at whether the manager is still generating alpha. Has there been style drift? Is he/she managing significantly more money now than in past years?
Meb hones in on one part of Stan’s comments – “performance as a metric.” This is a great part of the interview in which Stan really draws out the point that looking at performance alone isn’t necessarily all that helpful. You need to understand how a manager created his alpha. Unless you understand that, you’re a duck in the water. You cannot invest based on performance alone.
There’s so much more in this great interview: What percentage of managers are really adding value with their short book… Stan’s take on whether hedge fund managers truly deserve their fees… When is it time to give up on a manager if performance has been lagging… A major risk in today’s hedge fund space… And Stan’s most memorable trade…
This one involves Amazon and Google. Listen to Episode 113 for all the details.
7/18/2018 • 59 minutes, 49 seconds
#112 - Peter Ricchiuti - “You’re Better Off Investing When Things Look Miserable"
In Episode 112, we welcome Professor Peter Ricchiuti. We start with Peter’s origin story, which includes his time in the investment world, then managing money for the state of Louisiana, then teaching at Tulane where he created, and now runs, the Burkenroad Reports program (a student stock research program).
Diving into investing, Meb asks Peter about his broad approach to the markets and the economy. Peter tells us that from an economist’s perspective, “labor” is a huge factor when evaluating economic conditions. And he believes the U.S. is facing challenges with its labor pool. From a narrower, equity-perspective, Peter tells us that right now things look perhaps a little too good. He notes “you’re better off investing when things look miserable.” At present, given so much market optimism, he’s pulling back.
The conversation turns toward the global market, and how interconnected we all are these days. Peter tells us that part of the reason we’ve done so well over the past several years is because so many countries were growing at a positive pace at the same time. This dovetails into a discussion about today’s elevated PEs. Peter believes that, here in the U.S., we’re on a “sugar high” from the tax cuts. Companies have been using that money to buy back stock or buy each other. But what they haven’t been doing as much is building for expansion. Peter believes companies haven’t been focusing as much on planning for future growth.
Next, Meb asks a question that he admits hating to get himself – what causes this bull market run to end? What are the main risk factors?
Peter points toward higher interest rates. He believes we’re going to see Treasuries at 3.5%. Plus, earnings growth will begin to slow. He tells us that the economy is at or close to its peak right now – it could last longer, but as far as the peak goes, we’re in that general area now.
The conversation turns toward the Burkenroad program, bouncing around a bit: An interesting takeaway from a lunch with a small-cap company’s CEO… the attributes that Peter and his students look for in the companies they vet… the illiquidity advantage over institutions… even one great find through the program – a stock that went from $0.72 to about $150.
Meb asks which mistakes the students make repeatedly. Peter points toward looking at the past more so than evaluating the future. One manifestation of this is paying more attention to past earnings than the prospect of future earnings. Also, many of the students lack patience.
There’s way more in this fun episode: The recent Buffett op-ed piece on short-termism and Peter’s take on how to teach students to focus on the long-term… How Peter’s approach to markets has changed through his experiences running the program… The actual Burkenroad Fund, which has been around about 17 years and outperformed boatloads of competition… And of course, Peter’s most memorable trade.
Get all the details in Episode 112.
7/11/2018 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 51 seconds
#111 - Radio Show - Which Portfolio Hedge for This Market?... Is Short-Termism Harming Your Investments?... and Listener Q&A
Episode 111 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover numerous Tweets of the Week from Meb, as well as some write-in questions.
Before jumping in, a few housekeeping items… Meb discusses a proxy campaign with which we need your help, an award Cambria just received, Meb’s new Office Hours, when the Trinity ETF will launch, a new webinar we’re going to put on later this summer, and more.
We start with some of Meb’s Tweets of the Week. We discuss a WSJ op ed piece penned by Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett, in which they suggest short-termism is harming the economy. Specifically, they believe public companies should reduce or eliminate the practice of estimating quarterly earnings.
Next, there’s a quote from Jim O’Shaughnessy: “Money is like manure; if you pile it up it stinks to high heaven, but if you spread it around, it does a lot of good.” This is a springboard into a conversation about the role of cash in a portfolio, especially in today’s market.
This segues into the next subject – how Americans are reaching retirement age in worse financial shape than the prior generation, for the first time since Harry Truman was president. This leads to a conversation about starting investing early, but also focusing on active income and delaying the retirement age.
Next, there’s a tweet about early stage private investing. We use this as an opportunity to catch up on Meb’s private investments.
Other topics are fund-flow differentials between ETFs and mutual funds, as well as Meb’s dissection of Wealthfront’s latest fee structure. If you’re a Wealthfront client, you’ll want to listen to this.
We then get into listener Q&A. Some that you’ll hear Meb address include:
Given today's valuations, I’d like Meb’s perspective on the pros and cons of allocating to the following "hedges" – cash, gold, tail risk/put strategies, and managed futures.
What advice does Meb have for people trading companies in their field? For example, a realtor making a move on home builders or a programmer stock-picking an AI firm.
Would Meb please share his opinion on multifactor funds and the role they should play in an investor's portfolio?
A question about advisor fees and whether they’re deserved.
Besides portfolio construction and behavioral coaching in times of stress what are some other advisor value-adds? Are we reaching the limit of value added services?
As ETFs grow, under what circumstances could securities lending become a substantial risk to one's personal assets and possibly a systemic risk to the financial system--are processes in place now to prevent that problem before it happens?
All this and plenty of other rabbit holes in Episode 111.
7/4/2018 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 56 seconds
#110 - Bryan Taylor - “At Some Point, the Stresses Are Going to Be So Great that Some of the Countries (In the European Union) Are Eventually Forced to Leave"
In Episode 110, we welcome author and market data expert, Dr. Bryan Taylor.
Meb begins by asking how Bryan built the massive financial database that is Global Financial Data. Bryan walks us through how the database developed over time.
The conversation soon turns to Bryan’s book, Debts, Defaults, Depression and Other Delightful Ditties from the Dismal Science. Bryan tells us this is actually the first of two books. It includes stories about the past that people might find interesting – some of the crazy things that have happened in the financial markets, as well as an inference about what that might mean for the future. The follow-up book will focus on a number of specific cases, from The East India Company, all the way up to some of Trump’s companies.
Next, Meb changes gears – there are a few contenders getting close to becoming the first $1T company. Meb uses this as a chance to look back at the first $1B company.
Bryan tells us that title goes to Standard Oil. He then walks us through its history, including its practice of pushing prices down to drive competitors into bankruptcy, the Sherman Anti-trust Act, the break-up of Standard Oil, and the effect on shareholders.
This conversation dovetails into a conversation about which company today – Apple, Amazon, Facebook, or Google – is more likely to face a threat from government oversight. Listen in to get Bryan’s thoughts.
The guys then get into inflation. It turns out, the 20th Century had the highest inflation ever. What might be in store for us in the 21st Century? Bryan and Meb discuss this, touching on various governments’ ability to pay debt, growth rates, Bryan’s red-flag metric (when the interest coverage ratio to GDP exceeds 5%), as well as the most likely path for US and global interest rates.
Meb then uses his recent trip to Greece as a springboard for a discussion about the future of the EU. Bryan tells us it’s an all-or-nothing situation. And the concern now isn’t over Greece, it’s over Italy. It might be the first country to drop out of the Euro. If so, it will face severe consequences in trying to be independent. Plus, it could have a domino effect, leading to other countries leaving and the entire system falling apart. He concludes by telling us that “at some point, the stresses are going to be so great that some of the countries (in the European Union) are eventually forced to leave.”
Next, Meb moves toward Asia. He brings up a quote from Bryan about the future market-cap of Asian stock markets (as the biggest in the world) and asks if this is a no-brainer “buy Asia” right now. Bryan gives us his thoughts but notes that Asia has lots of internal issues that need solving before they can challenge the US as the primary engine of returns going forward.
Next up is an interesting discussion of what investing used to be like, how it changed, and how it might change for us going forward. The conversation touches on investing in the 1800s, how World War I flipped everything on its head, and the current concern of nationalism.
There’s plenty more in this episode – the need to be conscious of how integrated global markets are these days… the historical period that most closely resembles today’s investing climate… what Bryan is working on now… And Bryan’s most memorable trade.
Get all the details in Episode 110.
6/27/2018 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 6 seconds
#109 - Matt Hougan - “Anyone Who Tells You They Know What’s Going to Happen in Crypto Is Probably Lying to You"
In Episode 109, we welcome ETF and crypto expert, Matt Hougan.
After a quick, fun story about Matt’s first job…as a 9-foot tall seal mascot for a minor league baseball team…Meb asks about the state of the ETF industry – where we are today, and where we’re going.
Matt tells us that ETFs have become a dominant force in investing. Since the financial crisis, some $2 trillion of capital has flowed into ETFs. In comparison, the mutual fund industry has seen $0 inflows during that time. In terms of issues that are shaping ETFs and will continue to do so over the coming years, Matt points toward fee wars, distribution networks, and the growing reality that it’s getting harder for smaller companies to get a foothold within the ETF space. Overall, Matt believes the days of fastest ETF growth are in front of us.
Referencing back to the capital flows differential between ETFs and mutual funds since 2008, Meb asks if there will there be a Netflix/Blockbuster moment when the lion’s share of assets leaves mutual funds and flows into ETFs.
Matt believes the stream of asset migration will become a flood in the next bear market. He tells us the only thing that has kept mutual fund asset levels up is the bull market of the last decade. That’s created lots of embedded capital gains which many investors haven’t wanted to realize. Yet when a bear market finally hits… Matt believes we’ll see accelerated flows out of mutual funds when we suffer our next 20% market drop.
Next, Meb brings up something which Matt has tracked for since 2008 – the world’s lowest cost ETF portfolio. He started by taking the lowest-cost ETFs representing six major global asset classes. He was curious how much it would cost in order to get full global exposure. In 2008, the combined, blended fee to own the world was 16 basis points. Today, it’s down to just five basis points. Matt and Meb agree this is a great time to be an investor.
This bleeds into a discussion of direct index investing, which, Matt tell us, might be the next evolution of investing beyond ETFs. If you’re less familiar with direct index investing, it’s a way to own indexes, yet without paying a fund management fee, while enjoying the potential benefits of tax loss harvesting. This leads to an interesting discussion about implementing direct investing via robos, as well as the tradeoff between tracking risk and the potential for tax alpha.
The guys touch on a few more ETF ideas – broad concerns about the ETF market, active versus passive ETFs, and the use of artificial intelligence in replacing discretionary managers – but it’s not long before Meb switches the conversation to crypto.
Though ETFs are Matt’s first love, he’s long been interested in cryptocurrencies, so he was excited at the chance to join Bitwise, creator of the first currency index. Giving us an overview of the crypto world, Matt tells us “an index-based approach is the only sensible approach to the crypto market, because anyone who tells you they know what’s going to happen in crypto is probably lying to you.”
At Meb’s request, Matt then describes how to put together a crypto index. Matt tells us the goal is to capture the broad-base crypto market. There are 1,500 cryptos out there, but most of the market cap is concentrated in the top 10-15 currencies. There are many challenges to creating an index, including such basics as “how many Bitcoin are there?” (Do you the current number, or what the number will be x years in the future?) Matt goes into interesting detail for us.
Finally, you’ll hear Matt’s answer to “if you had to buy one crypto and not touch it for 10 years, what would it be?” And of course, there’s Matt’s most memorable trade. This one lost him about 90%.
What are the details? Find out in Episode 109.
6/20/2018 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 34 seconds
#108: Radio Show: What’s More Important – Savings or Returns… What Meb’s Doing with U.S. Bonds… and Listener Q&A
Episode 108 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover some of Meb’s Tweets of the Week and various write-in questions.
After giving us the overview of his upcoming travel, Meb shares his thoughts on our recent episode with James Montier. It evolves into a conversation about the importance of “process” in investing.
Next, we talk about a Tweet from Meb which evaluated what matters more – your savings rate or your rate of return. As you might guess, in the early years, savings trumps, but for longer investment horizons, rate of return is far more influential.
It’s not long before we jump into listener questions. Some that you’ll hear Meb address include:
What is the best way to include commodities in a portfolio? Specifically, is it better to have an ETF containing futures contracts or an ETF containing commodities equities?
Obviously historical returns from bonds, especially the last 40 years, will not be repeated in the future. How will you position yourself personally – not Trinity, but personally – for the bond portion of your portfolio?
What are some viable simple options for individual investors besides having a globally diversified bond portfolio? Or is global diversification the answer? Is the global risk somehow less risky than a U.S. bond allocation?
Star Capital studies and your book show that ten year returns of low CAPE ratio countries are impressive. But it doesn’t tell if those returns occurs gradually, or if the path to this performance is just noise and cannot be predicted. If the path is noise, it would make sense to buy a cheap country ETF and wait at least 7-10 years. But your strategy rebalances every year. Why not hold longer to 7-10 years in total?
I recently read that 88% of companies that were in the S&P 500 during the 1950’s are no longer in business. If every company is eventually heading towards zero, why are so few people able to make money on the short side? Shouldn’t the ideal portfolio be long the global market portfolio, with tilts to value and momentum, and short specific individual equities?
I’ve looked at you Trinity Portfolios and noticed an allocation of 0.88% to a security. Why? Isn’t the impact neglectable?
Do you suggest someone get a second opinion on their financial plan much as someone would get a second opinion for major surgery?
There’s plenty more in this episode including data mining, trend following time-frames, and what Meb’s thoughts are on ramping up equity exposure in a portfolio to offset the effects of living longer. All this and more in Episode 108.
5/30/2018 • 51 minutes, 2 seconds
#106 - Brian Singer - “We Don’t Know What Will Trigger the Decline, but When It Happens, Our Fear Is That It’s Sharper and Deeper Than Investors Would Otherwise Expect"
In Episode 106 we welcome market vet, Brian Singer. Meb dives right now, asking Brian for his general approach to the markets.
Brian tells us it’s fundamental in nature. They look at about 100 different asset markets, trading the broad markets rather than individual equities or bonds. They look for mis-pricings, then when one has been identified, they dig in, running both quantitative and qualitative analyses. They follow this with various risk management strategies. The overall portfolios are both long and short.
As Brian often writes about macro factors that affect asset prices, Meb asks which macro factors are influential today. Brian gives us his thoughts – not just on macro factors, but game theaters as well. He talks about populism, energy (which ties into the Middle East game theater), and Chinese growth. Additional game theaters beyond the Middle East he discusses are the European Union and Asia.
Next, Meb asks about Brian’s process. How does it really work when you’re putting together a portfolio?
Brian starts with valuation work. Specifically, they focus on the present value of future cash flows. They then assess things from a qualitative perspective – for instance, how might a certain government policy affect markets? They don’t look at markets on a company-by-company basis. It’s a macro approach, with fundamental value being a critical component. All of this is the “where” stage in Brian’s process. Next is the “why?” For instance, why does an asset mis-pricing exist? This eventually leads to game theory and an assessment of market turbulence and fragility.
Meb brings up Brian’s portfolio and asks about his current positioning. In general, Brian is cautiously optimistic on some equity markets, but generally against bonds. What he finds attractive right now from an equity perspective are Emerging Markets and some European markets. He’s especially attracted to Greece, Brazil, Argentina, and India; and to a lesser degree, China, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Brian talks more about Italy, Spain, and the UK.
Brian tells us most bond markets are unattractive. He gets into more detail regarding investment grade bonds, sovereigns, and junk.
Soon, the guys dive into currencies. Though most investors tend to think “it’ll all net out in the long run,” Brian takes a more active approach. The specific currencies he finds attractive right now include the Swedish Krona, Indian Rupee, Russian Ruble, Philippine Peso, and Turkish Lira. As to overvalued currencies, he points toward the U.S. Dollar, the Euro, the Swiss Franc, the Thai Baht, and the Israeli Shekel.
Next, Meb asks what is keeping Brian up at night as he looks at the markets today. Brian points toward four major concerns: monetary policy, rules-based strategies such as smart beta, the Volcker Rule, and circuit breaker inconsistency. He dives into tons of great detail that supports the notion for some concern, concluding “We don’t know what will trigger the decline, but when it happens, our fear is that it’s sharper and deeper than investors would otherwise expect.”
There’s plenty more in this episode: Brian’s thoughts on what steps can be taken to help protect against a declining market… his stance on cash in a portfolio… whether the 10-year bond will ever get back to 4%-5%... and finally, Brian’s most memorable trade.
This one involves Black Monday. Hear all the details in Episode 106.
5/16/2018 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 15 seconds
#105 - Olivia Judson - “Life Has Transformed the Planet, Which Has Gone On to Alter the Future Course of Life"
Episode 105 is a wholly unique show. In this episode, we depart from traditional investment themes, and instead, bring you an episode featuring Meb’s second professional love, biology. Specifically, we welcome the renowned evolutionary biologist and writer, Olivia Judson.
It turns out Olivia wrote for The Economist in her early years. Meb asks how a scientist got started writing for a business magazine. Olivia tells us of the progression that led from one article submission to several other articles, to a staff job.
Next, Meb asks about the genesis for writing Dr. Tatiana's Sex Advice to All Creation. (For anyone unaware, the book is written in the style of a sex-advice column to animals. It details the variety of sexual practices in the natural world and provides the reader with an overview of the evolutionary biology of sex.) Olivia tells us one of her early articles was the inspiration, though she’d been studying and researching the topic for years. She thought the book would take her only six months to write so she quit her job…she finally finished it four years later.
Meb notes how much of the book identifies a power struggle between males and females, and how this shapes evolutionary dynamics. Olivia expounds, telling us how sometimes what the male wants is not in the interest of the female (and vice versa). These differences create the tensions which affect evolutionary direction.
This leads to a conversation about Bateman’s Principle, namely, the general idea that females are pillars of virtue, while males are cads. Olivia’s book suggested this isn’t necessarily true. Meb asks for more details. Olivia starts by redefining the term “promiscuous,” digging deeper into the word in light of the term “choosy.” It turns out certain females can benefit from having multiple partners, though the reasons can vary. In any case, this awareness is much more prevalent than thought 40 years ago.
A bit later, Meb asks about homosexuality in the animal world, including questions regarding procreation and genes. Olivia gives us a fascinating answer that includes the concepts of “genetic component,” “exclusivity,” and “commonality” and how these factors might affect homosexual genes remaining in the population.
There’s way more in this fun, totally different episode: A dating party where women smelled men’s T-shirts to determine which scent they found most appealing… the male Australian Redback Spider, who actually tries to get eaten by the female during sex… Meb’s surprising discovery from his 22 and Me test that he has more Neanderthal genes than 95% of the population… Olivia’s views on gene editing… Camping on the side of a volcano in Antarctica… and whether we’ll find life beyond our world.
We end with asking Olivia about her most memorable experience in all of her research. What is it? Find out in Episode 105.
5/9/2018 • 55 minutes, 57 seconds
#104 - Ken Fisher - “If You’re Worried About What Things Are Going to Be Worth Next Week…You’re Going to Make Yourself Way Poorer 20 Years from Now"
In Episode 104, we welcome the legendary, Ken Fisher.
Meb starts with a quick word of congratulations to Ken, as his firm just passed $100B in assets under management. The guys then discuss Ken’s interest in fishing with a bow and arrow, which eventually morphs into a conversation about a millionaire who allegedly hid a million dollars somewhere in the Rockies, leaving clues to treasure-hunters searching for it.
The guys then jump into investing, discussing Ken’s early days in launching Fisher Investments. They touch upon one of Ken’s early claims to fame, championing the price-to-sales ratio. This leads to a conversation about being factor agnostic, which includes some interesting takeaways from Ken on capital pricing.
Soon, Meb brings up Ken’s book, Debunkery, and asks about one of its points: namely, the misbelief by so many investors that bonds are safer than stocks. What follows is a great commentary by Ken about short-term volatility risk versus opportunity cost risk. When you look at longer, rolling time periods, it becomes clear that stocks are far less risky than bonds. And in the long term, stocks are less risky than cash. Ken tells us that in his business, it’s his job to focus his clients on the longer-term.
Next, the conversation takes an interesting turn, touching upon the explosion of tech science, and how it’s affecting our lives, as well as the capital markets. It bleeds into Meb suggesting that older investors tend to become more conservative or pessimistic, and so they tilt away from equities, and whether that’s a behavioral challenge Ken has to address with his clients. Ken gives us his thoughts, concluding with that idea that people need to be relatively comfortable in capital markets with things that are generally uncomfortable.
The conversation then veers into politics and the effects on the market. Ken tell us that when you look at presidents and market history, our system gives presidents much less power to affect markets than most people believe.
Meb jumps to Twitter questions, bringing up one that wonders how to position yourself in the end of a bull market. Ken gives us a fascinating answer which I’m going to make you listen to in order to hear, but it tends to focus on large cap and quality.
There’s way more in this great episode: capital preservation and growth… volatility (a great quote from Ken “volatility is your friend, it’s not your enemy, if you use it correctly”)… the media’s impact on investor perception… the Fed and sovereign balance sheets… the senate bill trying to eliminate the ability of public companies buying back their own stock in the marketplace… housing (and the need to account for the full housing costs when calculating returns)… and of course, Ken’s most memorable trade.
What are the details? Find out in Episode 104.
5/2/2018 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 39 seconds
#103 - The Asset Allocation Pyramid
Episode 103 is a solo-Meb show.
We just finished a short paper that references the old nutritional “Food Pyramid” published by the FDA a couple decades ago. Given what we’ve learned about health-conscious eating in the years since, that old guideline now seems a bit off-base. In the same way, the investing wisdom of yesteryear now seems similarly misguided. Meb walks us through the white paper that delves into these ideas in this short, just-Meb episode, identifying how his “Investment Pyramid” looks today.
Also, most of Meb’s books are now free! Just click here.
Get all the details in Episode 103.
4/25/2018 • 25 minutes, 28 seconds
#102: Radio Show: The "Stay Rich" Portfolio... A Senator Wants to Ban Share Repurchases... and Listener Q&A
Episode 102 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover Meb’s Tweets of the Week, some write-in questions, Twitter questions, and our first-ever call-in question.
We discuss the “Stay Rich” portfolio, and the unfortunate reality that even the safest portfolios can suffer ~25% drawdowns.
Next, there’s discussion of stock buybacks and a recent push from Senator Tammy Baldwin to introduce a bill that would prohibit companies from repurchasing their own shares (she claims it’s exacerbating the wealth gap).
Then, with volatility showing some life in the market, there’s discussion of volatility clustering. Next up is the investing service, Robinhood, which is now referring to calls and puts as “going up” and “going down.” Also, an ETF for companion pets filed by Gabelli.
We then dive into questions. Some that you’ll hear Meb address include:
How do you keep a level head when markets are imploding around you?
Meb and Elroy Dimson discussed the historical returns of housing and indicated that owning a house is not a high-performing investment, relative to other asset classes. However, if the alternative to buying a house is paying rent, often at a similar cost to a monthly mortgage payment, how does this factor in to the assessment of the investment?
I understand that any given strategy can underperform the market for long periods of time. What is a reasonable time-frame to fairly evaluate the results of any particular strategy?
Valuation difference in countries is often caused by sector structure. Can you explain that?
The AUM of Target Date Funds was at $250B in '08. Many investors were shocked at the bad performance in '08. Target Date Funds AUM is now $900B. What's the industry's level of responsibility to educate?
Is Russia worth the current political risk for long term investor (5-7 years)? If so, is it best to look at specific Russian equities or an index such as the RSX?
All this and more in Episode 102.
4/18/2018 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 25 seconds
#101 - Paul Merriman - “The People That Have Come Out Ahead Are the People Who Have Put Their Trust in the System Over the Long-Term"
In Episode 101, we welcome the great educator, Paul Merriman.
We start with Paul’s background; specifically, the story of an early trading experience with commodities. He doubled his money in days…and then lost everything on the very next trade.
Then the guys dive in, with Meb bringing up something Paul wrote called “The Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio” and asking for more detail. Paul starts with the S&P which, even with all its up-and-downs, has done great over the years. But then he walks us through some tweaks – adding large cap, then small cap – he notes the various percentage returns added by each, as well as the effect on volatility. He eventually arrives at a final portfolio, showing us the power of this diversification.
Meb points the conversation toward the behavioral benefit of diversification and says how some listeners will wonder how much money to put into each of the asset classes Paul had identified. Paul tells us he originally put 10% into 10 different asset classes – after all, if each asset class is worthy, then he wants it to be in his portfolio; especially because there’s no way to be certain which one(s) will shine going forward.
Agreeing, Meb touches on being “asset class agnostic” and notes that the problem with being, say, a “gold guy” or any die-hard type of investor, is you get wedded to that asset class. This emotional bond can lead to bad behavior. This leads to a discussion about implementation and the challenges of emotional investing. Paul tells us “I don’t want my emotions to have anything to do with how (my) money is managed.”
The conversation drifts toward the benefits of investing early, yet the challenges of educating young people as to its importance, as well as different investing needs over a lifetime. The guys note how the best thing for a young person would be the markets tanking for 10 years. Of course, that would be terrible for an older investor in/near retirement. This bleeds into a conversation about formally educating the younger generation about investing.
A bit later, Meb asks about the older investor who might have been burned in ’08, is now near retirement, thinks the U.S. market is expensive, yet needs results. What about him? Paul walks us through the realities of losses and gives us his overall thoughts. This morphs into a common question we get – invest everything at once, or drip it in over time? Paul has some thoughts on how to do this in a way that balances math and emotions.
There’s tons more in this episode (it’s one of our longest to date): the challenge of investing in the “shiny object”… how to avoid getting screwed by your advisor… investment newsletters… buy-and-hold versus market timing… the critical nature of understanding past performance… giving money to grandkids… and of course, Paul’s most memorable trade; his involves the ’87 crash.
What are the details? Find out in Episode 101.
4/11/2018 • 1 hour, 28 minutes, 6 seconds
#100 - Elroy Dimson - “High Valuations Don't Necessarily Mean That We're Going to See Asset Prices Collapse"
To celebrate the milestone of reaching 100 episodes, we’re thrilled to welcome Professor Elroy Dimson, author of Meb’s favorite investing book of all time, Triumph of the Optimists.
Per Meb’s request, Elroy starts by giving us a summation of his research history which led to Triumph of the Optimists. He had a heritage in producing indexes and began reaching out to researchers across the globe in hopes of accessing different data sets. Looking at all the aggregated data, it became clear that from a long-term perspective, people who had invested in risky securities at the beginning of the century had done very well. People who had bought bonds and T-bills had not performed as well. The optimists had triumphed.
Next, Meb brings up a quote from Elroy about a controversial finding regarding the lack of correlation between economic growth and stock market performance. If anything, the relationship was reverse. Elroy expounds upon this, telling us that if it’s obvious that a market is growing, that’s public information. You can’t trade that since everyone else knows too. So, if you investing in countries where GDP has been growing, that could mean you’re too late.
Meb steers the conversation toward valuation, market cap weightings, and home country bias. Elroy walks us through the market cap concept, touching on the historical Austrian empire as well as the Japanese bubble. This leads to a lesson in finance, which includes real yields today, the Gordon Model, the multiple people are willing to pay today (which is higher), and the takeaway that “high valuations don’t necessarily mean that we’re going to see asset prices collapse” – they’re a reflection of the low interest rates we have today.
Meb asks about bonds, and whether Elroy has seen another historical period of negative yielding sovereigns. When you look at real rates, how does it play out for future returns?
Elroy tells us that real (inflation adjusted) rates are better to consider than nominal rates. And it turns out, real rates have been lower. Negative real rates are not all that rare – what is rare is so many countries experiencing them at the same time. This dovetails into a conversation about inflation and currency hedging. Elroy provides some color on currency issues but notes that hedging is not required if you’re a long-term investor.
There’s plenty more in this centennial episode: factors… growth stocks versus value stocks… historical returns of housing… even stamps, musical instruments and the investment returns of a good Bordeaux.
How does it compare to that of equities? Find out in Episode 100.
4/4/2018 • 54 minutes, 21 seconds
#99: Radio Show: Meb's Bullish on Emerging Markets... Strategies for Limited 401K Options... and Listener Q&A
Episode 99 is a radio show format. We start discussing some of Meb’s “Tweets of the Week.” The first involves a presentation from Rob Arnott at Research Affiliates, which Meb considered “required reading for financial advisors everywhere.” It involves the amount of extra alpha you’d need to generate in order to offset taxes given various market approaches.
Next, we discuss another Tweet from Meb in which he asked readers to guess at the largest drawdown in US bonds in real terms between 1900 and 2010. Turns out, the majority of respondents were far off. Meb gives us the results and takeaways.
Then there’s a discussion of taxes in light of crypto gains (and losses). It seems lots of people may not be factoring tax payments into the equation. Not sure the IRS is going to look favorably on that…
We then jump into listener Q&A. Some of the questions you’ll hear answered include:
Why should we listen to your podcast when you say the best ROI is to focus on skills directly benefiting our work performance?
You've said you'd like to invest in a farm REIT. But you've written about dividend investing as a suboptimal strategy. Can you reconcile these two apparently contradictory ideas?
Which asset class is going to shine 5 years from now?
What’s the best strategy for folks with a limited selection of 401k funds?
There’s plenty more, including why Meb is still very bullish on emerging markets, the realities of mutual fund investing with fees/taxes included, and Meb’s upcoming travel plans.
Check it all out in Episode 99.
3/28/2018 • 56 minutes, 21 seconds
#98 - Ed Yardeni - “We've Got Good Growth with Low Inflation and That's a Very Good Environment for Stocks and Okay Environment for Bonds"
In Episode 98, we welcome a true market veteran, Dr. Ed Yardeni.
The episode starts with a fun story about Ed’s school days, studying off Janet Yellen’s notes in James Tobin’s class. But Meb soon brings up Ed’s new book, Predicting the Markets. In it, he writes that if books had theme songs, the appropriate song for his would be the 80s hit, “Don’t Worry Be Happy.” Ed explains this is because, when looking back over the past 40 years, the market has been extraordinarily bullish as a whole. There were plenty of reason to worry along the way, but all in all, the market rewarded brave investors.
This eventually leads into a conversation about valuations today that appear somewhat grim, and what Ed’s thoughts are looking forward.
Ed tells us it’s okay to be bearish, but don’t forget to get back into the market. He says, “history shows the smartest thing to do is just to invest over the years as you’re getting old, keep putting more money into the markets…recognizing that sometimes you’re going to get bargains and sometimes you’re not.”
The conversation drifts toward making macro predictions and the effect of Washington DC on the market. Ed tells us we’re overwhelmed with information and news, which is all the more reason to try to find the fundamental truth that’s out there. Washington doesn’t matter as much as Washington likes to think it matters. Ed gives us more of his thoughts on the market response to Obama, Trump, and the Fed, as well as what he believes actually creates jobs.
The conversation turns toward bonds, with Meb asking why bond movements can be challenging to predict. Ed points toward inflation, taking us back to the 50s to discuss bond yields and how they’ve moved in the years since. He brings in nominal GDP and central bankers into the mix.
A conversation about negative yielding sovereigns brings various central bankers into the spotlight. Ed walks us through a look back at some of the effects of Fed involvement. He has some interesting thoughts on what the Fed does well – and not so well.
This is a great show, melding market history, implementable market wisdom, and Ed’s fascinating career. There’s way more, including where Ed sees the biggest changes coming in technology, and how it will affect markets… Ed’s favorite three indicators… which period over Ed’s 40-year career stands out the most… Ed’s movie reviews… and of course, his most memorable trade.
What are the details? Find out in Episode 98.
3/21/2018 • 52 minutes, 19 seconds
#97 - Phil Nadel - “If You Try to Pick Winners, and You Only Invest in a Handful of Companies, Odds Are You're Going to Lose Your Money"
In Episode 97, we welcome one of the most successful syndicate leads in angel investing, Phil Nadel (he also happens to be Meb’s favorite syndicate lead on Angel List).
After Phil runs us through his background, Meb asks about Phil’s group, Forefront Venture Partners and its connection to Angel List. Phil gives us the run-through, noting how when Angel List announced its syndicate feature, he felt it was a great way for smaller angels to get involved, so he signed up. Today, he’s one of the largest/most active leads on Angel List.
Meb asks how the syndicate process works. Phil tells us that accredited investors can register and sign up with syndicate leads like Forefront. This enables them to see the deal-flow of the lead, and invest on same terms. There’s no management fee, instead, investors pay a 20% carry on the backend if there’s a profit. You can invest small amounts – sometimes as little as $1K, yet you get all the same due diligence and legal review as a big investor.
Meb notes how syndicates have removed so much of the hassle and made the entire process simpler – which is both good and bad.
Next, Meb asks about Phil’s syndicate and the average investor. Phil tells us the average investment in a company is roughly $300K. And they’ve invested in about 44 deals since inception. The average investment per person is around $4-5K. This dovetails into a conversation about how to approach angel investments. Phil tells us a “portfolio” approach is important. He’s against picking only a few companies, as most will go out of business. He tells us “if you try to pick winners, and you only invest in a handful of companies, odds are you’re going to lose your money.” Phil recommends picking companies diversified by industry and stage.
The conversation then drifts into timing. Do you invest all at once, or drip in over time? Phil gives us his thoughts. Then it’s Phil’s rule of thumb about success rates. He tells us that out of 100 investments, 70 will go out of business. About 20-30 will stagnate, or exit as a single to a triple. Maybe one or two will turn out to be home runs.
Meb asks how Phil finds his deals. Turns out, lots of referrals. The guys then dive into what Phil looks for in a company – it includes post-revenues and capital efficiency. But he’s industry and geography-agnostic. His sweet spot is a valuation in the $5-12M range.
Next up, the guys discuss KPIs, or “Key Performance Indicators.” Phil discusses burn and runway, then customer acquisition cost and lifetime value. Phil wants to see that the company knows how to acquire and monetize customers in an efficient and scalable way. He then also looks at margins.
There’s plenty more in this angel-themed episode: the extent of Phil’s involvement in a startup after funding… the critical role that updates from founders play in the startup process… some “bad investor behavior” which Phil has seen over the years… what Phil learned from Barbara Corcoran of the show, Sharktank… and of course, Phil’s most memorable trade.
What are the details? Find out in Episode 97.
3/14/2018 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 38 seconds
#96 - Craig Leupold & Jim Sullivan - “From a Commercial Property Standpoint, We See Values Drifting Sideways Over the Next 12 Months"
In Episode 96, we welcome two of the brightest guys in real estate, Craig Leupold and Jim Sullivan of Green Street.
After touching on Craig’s and Jim’s backgrounds, the guys jump into real estate, with Meb asking about Green Street’s approach to the real estate markets (public and private) and how they think about valuation.
Craig gives us an overview, referencing Green Street’s REIT research (focusing on the public markets), their real estate analytics (focusing on private markets), and their advisory consulting group. Craig touches upon lots of ideas – understanding the value of the properties owned by the various companies… identifying the associated premiums or discounts at which the companies might be trading… a deeper dive into their real estate analytics lineup… looking at how to allocate capital…
Meb asks how the real estate world looks today, and what’s the outlook for 2018. Craig tells us that with the exception of retail real estate, most sectors are seeing increases in rents and occupancies. But fundamentals have moved from “great,” to “good,” to now, “okay.” He goes on to give us his growth forecast over the next four years, as well as what he expects for commercial pricing over the next 12 months.
When Meb brings up “returns,” the guys make the distinction between public and private markets and how there’s a divergence. Private real estate is generally fairly valued today, yet in the public market, REITs are trading at an 11% discount to their unleveraged asset value.
Jim dives into greater detail on this topic, telling us how the average REIT should trade at a modest premium to NAV. The reason for this is that an investor should be willing to pay the fair market value for the property owned by the REIT, but then there’s the added benefit of the management team and the liquidity of the REIT structure; both deserve a premium. But again, today, we’re not seeing this premium today – quite the opposite, in fact.
Meb brings up valuation, asking about how to distinguish between buying opportunities and value traps. Jim tells us it’s situational, and depends on the property type. This dovetails into a discussion about pessimism in the mall sector.
Soon, the conversation turns toward rising rates. The common opinion is that rising rates are bad for real estate, but Jim tells us it’s more complicated than that. If rates are rising due to our economy accelerating, then that could be positive for commercial real estate, leading to higher occupancies and rising rents.
There’s far more in this episode: activism in the real estate space… how the real estate market looks around the world… the challenge of figuring out what risk-adjusted returns should be in different global locations… which geographies look particularly attractive today… farmland REITs… and Craig’s and Jim’s one piece of advice to investors looking to allocate to the REIT space.
All this, as well and Craig’s and Jim’s most memorable trades, in Episode 96.
3/7/2018 • 50 minutes, 30 seconds
#95: Radio Show: The Short-Vol Trade Blows Up... Meb's Rare Coin Purchases... and Listener Q&A
Episode 95 is a radio show format. We start with a recap of Meb’s recent travels to Nicaragua and San Francisco, but then dive into a discussion about volatility. With the VIX spiking at the beginning of the month, some short-vol funds suffered massive losses. We discuss the short-vol trade, then the long-vol trade.
Next up, Meb gives us a quick (overdue) update on his trip to see Van Simmons, including which coins he purchased. But we quickly dive into a different topic – a recent offering from Wealthfront that’s raising some questions for Meb. The conversation touches upon a risk parity market approach, robo fees, and general transparency.
We then jump into listener Q&A. Some of the questions you’ll hear answered include:
I've heard Meb say it may be appropriate to allocate up to 20% of your portfolio in a hedging strategy. I've also heard him say you need an exit plan. What is his exit strategy regarding this play?
How/when should an investor use leverage?
What’s Meb’s take on a vanilla Vanguard Target Date fund vs Trinity over 15-20 years?
With fee compression and product commoditization, how do you see large, active-focused publicly traded asset managers faring in the next 5-10 years?
How would you think about asset allocation for a millennial (sub-30) with retirement accounts? The typical 60/40 doesn’t seem great.
With rising rates, I am in short-term notes to limit duration; with hints of higher inflation do TIPS make sense?
All this and more in Episode 95.
2/28/2018 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 56 seconds
#94 - Michelle Leder - “There Are Some Companies That We Know Are Sort of Bad Eggs"
In Episode 94, we welcome entrepreneur, author, and SEC filings expert, Michelle Leder.
We start with Michelle’s background. She was a business journalist – a self-professed “document geek.” She wrote the book Financial Fine Print: Uncovering a Company's True Value and decided to launch a website as an accompaniment to the book. Here we are, 15 years later.
Meb asks Michelle to give an overview of what she’s looking for in the various filings. She tells us that changes are important. She doesn’t necessarily look closely at the numbers because it’s more about the language. Also, the forward-looking statements can be big. Michelle mentions an example of one that used a significant amount of extra language.
This dovetails into a discussion about the process – is it a keyword search or is there software? Michelle uses both, as keywords alone don’t always work. She gives the example of when Goldman Sachs was subpoenaed, the language used to describe it in the filings was something like “an invitation to respond to the DOJ.”
Meb asks for examples of red flag behavior in the filings. Michelle looks for unusual compensation or stock grant amounts. Also, lots of extra language used to describe earnings or adjusted EBITDA. She mentions a company called GT Advanced Technology, which used to be an Apple supplier. In one particular filing, they added new disclosure language, identifying their dependence on Apple, and their vulnerability if that relationship soured. Some time thereafter, Apple ended the relationship.
Next, Meb and Michelle discuss the “Friday Night Dump.” This is the 90 minutes after market close on Friday, when there’s no major trading. Companies tend to dump all their bad info here. Michelle mentions recent examples using Tesla and Wynn. But her most memorable disclosure dump was Chesapeake Energy, revealing it had paid over $12M for a map collection.
Meb asks if Michelle has ever been contacted by a company she’s profiled, trying to defend or explain itself. She mentions Dell. Apparently, the company once purchased a company from Dell’s own brother and something seemed a tad off. After Michelle covered it, Dell reached out to tell her she had gotten it all wrong.
This is a fun episode with plenty more in it – what sort of time commitment this would take the average investor… the atmospheric changes Michelle has seen in the last 10-15 years… the story of Meb stealing someone else’s disclosure language for his own blog but forgetting to remove the other company’s name…
There’s even a discussion of something Twitter did recently that grabbed Michelle’s interest. If you’re a Twitter investor, you might want to listen.
All this and more in Episode 94.
2/21/2018 • 50 minutes, 48 seconds
#93 - John Reese - “There Is No Strategy That Outperformed the Stock Market Every Single Year"
In Episode 93, we welcome entrepreneur, author, and quant investor, John Reese.
We start with John’s background. When John was a child, his father was a subscriber to Value Line, and John related to the charts and numbers. Later, this love of numbers took him to MIT, where he researched how to take the wisdom from books and turn it into computer programs. Years later, when he sold his company to GE Capital, John needed to learn how to invest the proceeds. Yet, he wasn’t sure which investment guru to follow in doing this. He decided to study a handful of gurus, and was disappointed to find that there was no repeatability and sustainability of outperformance over multiple time periods.
However, John then came across Peter Lynch’s One Up On Wall Street. In the book, Lynch had provided enough detail about his strategy that John was able to translate it into a computer program designed to pick the stocks that Lynch might have chosen. The results were solid. John then moved on to Ben Graham, eventually codifying 12 different guru strategies. He then put his research up on a website, which eventually morphed into Validea.
Meb asks about the challenges of this – namely, many managers have a qualitative component to their stock selection as well quantitative. How did John account for this?
John tells us this was very challenging. He had to re-read the various books multiple times, determining whether the printed word actually matched what the guru did in the market, versus his actions revealing more information or biases. Meb asks about filtering the incredibly long list of potential gurus to follow, and John tells us the list actually wasn’t too long. Most gurus didn’t have a sufficiently-long track record of performance, or they didn’t describe their strategies in sufficient details as to be able to be codified.
Meb then asks how John determines when a period of underperformance reveals a manager has lost his touch, versus the manager’s style is simply out of favor.
John tells us that he first looks at the length of time in which the strategy worked. If it was long enough, he tends to believe that, at some point, the strategy will come back into favor. He goes on to tell us that in all of his research, he found that there was not one strategy that outperformed the market every single year. They were these periods of going-out-of-favor that paved the way for the outperformance that occurred when the style came back into favor.
The guys then jump into an actual example of how John’s guru quant strategies work, using Buffett. Be sure to listen to this part for all the details.
Moving on from Buffett, Meb asks if there are any common attributes to the models that tend to do the best – any broad takeaways.
John tells us that, over time, the more successful strategies tend to have a value orientation, some kind of debt criteria, and they’re all profitable.
Meb asks – “Okay, gun to your head, which strategy has outperformed?” I’m going to make you listen to find out John’s answer, but odds are you’ll be surprised.
Next, the guys turn to factors, with Meb asking if there are any combination of factors that John tends to prefer. John says he likes momentum and mean reversion. This leads into a conversation on timing factors.
As usual, there’s far more in this episode: practical guidelines for listeners looking to follow along… portfolio construction in today’s challenging environment… what John would have done differently if he could start over again on Day 1… a roboadvisor for income investors… and of course, John’s most memorable trade.
This one happened the day after Black Monday. What are the details? Find out in Episode 93.
2/14/2018 • 54 minutes, 37 seconds
#92 - Andrew Tobias - “There Are Just A Few Things You Really Need to Know About Investing, and They Don't Ever Change"
In Episode 92, we welcome investor, author, and activist, Andrew Tobias.
Meb starts by asking Andy about his background and introduction to investing. Andy gives us his origin story, with highlights including collecting stamps, an early introduction to the stock market, a trip behind the Iron Curtain which led to a brief dalliance with Communism, then his becoming a paper millionaire due to some creative accounting (then those monies disappearing). It’s a fascinating look back.
Next, Meb recalls a survey we conducted some quarters ago, soliciting readers’ favorite investing books of all time. Andy’s book from 1978, The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need, turned out to be high on that list. Meb asks Andy to explain the thesis of the original book, and whether there have been any significant changes in subsequent editions.
Andy tells us “There are just a few things you really need to know about investing, and they don’t ever change. The problem is it’s hard to get people to really grab onto them.” He goes on to say that investing isn’t like cooking or chess, where the more you read/learn, the better. Instead, with investing, the more you read, the more you can get yourself into trouble. He gives us an example using commodity speculating. Given that so much about investing remains constant, Andy’s revisions in subsequent editions haven’t been too substantial.
Meb pushes a bit more, asking if there’s any subject about which Andy has changed his mind since the original publication.
Andy tells us he’s become a bigger fan of special opportunity investing. Most people aren’t looking for this type of thing. So, Andy discusses putting 80% of your portfolio into inexpensive index funds, but spreading the remaining 20% over 5-6 really interesting, exciting speculations. Most will go to $0, but maybe you hit with one or two, and those proceeds offset the losses and more. Plus, this satisfies the need to have something more exciting to do with your money.
Meb agrees with this idea, and asks about Andy’s speculative process – is it rooted in quant or is there a discretionary component? Andy answers by giving us an example with Support.com.
Next, the guys discuss valuations, comparing where we are now to where we were back in the early ‘80s. It seems we’re flip-flopped a bit in terms of interest rates and equity valuations.
This segues into private investing, with Andy telling us about how came to own farmland. Turned out to be a great investment, buying at $500 an acre and selling years later at $3K an acre. Meb agrees farmland is a great asset class, but it’s hard to allocate toward.
This dovetails into a few other private investments in which Andy has participated, most notably “Honest Tea,” which was purchased by Coca Cola, as well as a small, musical comedy, which went on to play on multiple continents over many years.
The guys bounce around a bit here, discussing the need to spread your bets in private market investing… lockups… the benefit of illiquidity… binary thinking… Andy’s firsthand experience with selling way too early…
There’s plenty more in this episode, including Andy’s concerns for our existential future, his most memorable trade, and finally, a product he endorses which might help tackle dementia and improve reflexes. Apparently, Tom Brady swears by it.
What are the details? Find out in Episode 92.
2/7/2018 • 52 minutes, 22 seconds
ER Tribute
ER Tribute
1/31/2018 • 2 minutes, 34 seconds
#91: Radio Show: Meb's Most Popular Tweet of All Time... Signs of the Top... Listener Q&A
Episode 91 is a radio show format.
We bounce around a bit in this one, starting with Meb’s most popular Tweet of all time. It involves a market record that people decided to politicize.
Next are some “signs of the top.” We discuss various indicators that support the general takeaway that (to no one’s surprise) we’re in a frothy market: US investor stock allocations are approaching the highest levels since 2000… Stocks as a percentage of household assets adjust for pensions funds are now the 2nd highest ever… The average expected return of state and local pension funds is 7.5%... The number of days the VIX has spent below “10” in 2017 was 52 (the combined amount for all years dating back to 1999? Less than “10”)…
We then discuss Meb’s upcoming personal portfolio rebalance. He publishes this each year, and he gives us the preview. Then there’s a discussion of Bitcoin, and Meb’s thoughts on how an investor might reasonably participate if so desired.
Then we hop into some listener/Twitter questions:
Is there a broad asset class that appears especially attractive right now? Emerging Markets seems to have gone to a case-by-case situation. Is there an entire asset class you like?
Why does value investing works?
If you had to buy one country and hold it for 10 years, which one would it be?
Have you ever done a back-test combining a simple moving average timing strategy overlaid with a value approach? For instance, going long an asset class when it’s above its SMA, but below a historical multiple?
What changed in your investing philosophy in the last year?
Value factors been out of favor for a decade or however long. At what point can we say they've been arbed out and not coming back…ever?
What is the long term mean or hurdle for real US Treasury rates?
Plus, Meb is about to do some traveling overseas. Where’s he headed this time? Find out in Episode 91.
1/24/2018 • 49 minutes, 48 seconds
#90 - Dan Rasmussen - “The Crown Jewel of the Alternative Universe is Private Equity"
In Episode 90, we welcome Founder and Portfolio Manager of Verdad, Dan Rasmussen.
We start with a brief walk-through of Dan’s background. It involves a Harvard education, a New York Times best-selling book, a stint at Bridgewater, consulting work with Bain, then his own foray into private equity.
Turning to investments, Meb lays the groundwork by saying how many people misunderstand the private equity market in general (often confusing it for venture capital). He asks Dan for an overview, then some specifics on the state of the industry today.
Dan clarifies that when he references “private equity” (PE), he’s talking about the leveraged buyout industry – think “Barbarians at the Gate.” He tells us that PE has been considered the crown jewel of the alternative world, then provides a wonderful recap of its evolution – how this market outperformed for many years (think Mitt Romney in the 80s, when he was buying businesses for 4-6 times EBIT), yet its outsized returns led to endowments flooding the market with capital ($200 - $300 billion per year, which was close to triple the pre-Global Financial Crisis average), driving up valuations. Today, deals are getting done at valuations that are nowhere near as low as in the early days. And so, the outsized returns simply haven’t existed. Yet that hasn’t stopped institutional investors from believing they will. Dan tells us about a study highlighting by just how much institutional managers believe PE will outperform in coming years…yet according to Dan’s research, their number is way off.
Dan then delves into leverage and the value premium, telling us how important this interaction is. He gives us great details on the subject based on a study he was a part of while at Bain Consulting. The takeaway was that roughly 50% of deals done at multiples greater than 10x EBITDA posted 0% returns to investors, net of fees.
Meb asks about the response to this from the private equity powers that be… What is their perspective on adding value improvements, enabling a higher price? Dan gives us his thoughts, but the general take is that doing deals at 10x EBITDA is nuts.
Next, the guys delve into Dan’s strategy at Verdad. In essence, he’s taking the strategy that made PE so successful in the 80s and applying it to public markets. Specifically, he’s looking for microcap stocks, trading at sub-7 EBITDAs, that are 50%-60% levered. With this composition, this mirrors PE deals.
The guys then get neck-deep in all things private equity… control premiums, fees, and illiquidity… the real engine behind PE alpha… sector bets… portfolio weights…
Meb and Dan land on “debt” for a while. Dan tell us how value investors tend to have an aversion to debt. But if you’re buying cheap companies that are cash-flow generating, then having debt and paying it off is a good thing. Debt paydown is a better form of capital allocation than dividends or buybacks because it improves the health of the biz, leading to multiple expansion.
The guys cover so much ground in this episode, it’s hard to capture it all here: They discuss how to balance quantitative rules with a human element… The Japanese market today, and why it’s a great set-up for Dan’s PE strategy… Rules that should work across geography, asset classes, markets, and time… Currency hedging… And far more.
For the moment, we’re still ending shows with “your most memorable trade.” Dan’s involves a Japanese company that had been blemished by a corporate scandal. Did it turn out for or against him? Find out in Episode 90.
1/17/2018 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 38 seconds
#89 - Blair Hull - “Emotions Will Kill You in This Game"
In Episode 89, we welcome legendary market veteran, Blair Hull.
We start per usual, with our guest’s background. In this case, long-time Meb Faber Show listeners may think they’ve heard it before. That’s because Blair’s background shares an interesting similarity with that of Ed Thorp – the card game, Blackjack.
It turns out Blair made a considerable sum of money playing Blackjack after reading Ed’s writings on the game. Blair tells us you needed an advantage, and then you need to stay in the game. That’s why he played with a team. More hands played according to their system tilted the odds in his favor. This is a fun part of the podcast you’ll want to listen to for all the details, including Meb’s foray into card counting with a partner that botched the system after drinking too many Bloody Mary’s.
Eventually, Blair took his winnings and used them to get a seat on the Pacific Exchange, where he became a market maker and began trading options. Blair tells us he was intrigued with market timing, resulting in a paper he wrote which concluded that you can time the market.
Meb asks about the genesis of Blair’s market timing strategies.
Blair points back to Blackjack – each different card provides an idea about the future. In a similar way, various indicators provide an idea about a market’s future. So, part of the challenge is which indicators do you consider and what weights do you put on them?
Next, Meb digs deeper, asking for more specifics of Blair’s strategy, inquiring about the indicators.
Blair mentions one indicator that piqued his interest – the Federal Reserve Bank Loan Officer Survey. They found the correlations with 6-month returns was about 30%, which is a fairly high correlation for an indicator. He then took this indicator and combined it with a few others and ran a regression with no forward-looking bias to see if they could exceed the returns of the S&P. What were the results? You’ll have to listen.
The conversation bounces around a bit before Blair mentions how valuation is one of their key variables. He tells us his valuation method combines three different aspects: CAPE, cyclically adjusted dividend yield including buybacks, and book-to-price.
The guys spend a while discussing the various inputs in Blair’s model before discussing sentiment (which Meb calls “squishy). Both guys like sentiment, with Blair even having invested in two different firms that are using Twitter feeds so he can get a better handle on sentiment.
Next, Meb asks about AI, and how machines may affect investing going forward. Blair has a proprietary trading firm that operates on a high frequency basis, so he gives us his thoughts, noting that a key to maximizing wealth is to use an optimal-sized bet.
Meb changes direction, asking what Blair is excited about today.
It turns out Blair is focusing on the stigma of market timing. He believes it will be irresponsible not to be involved in market timing over the next 30 years. That’s because when we have correlations that really go to “1” when we have a disaster, getting an edge in the market is critical.
There are a couple quick questions – Blair’s favorite indicator, and Blair’s advice to young quants looking to get into quant finance today, but then we turn to Blair’s most memorable trade.
This is a great one involving the crash in ’87, when Blair was a market maker. Don’t miss it.
There’s plenty more in this great episode featuring a true market legend, including why Blair tells us “Emotions will kill you in this game.”
That and far more in Episode 89.
1/10/2018 • 47 minutes, 5 seconds
#88 - Eric Clark - “I Still Believe that Alpha is Available and Possible, and Beating a Benchmark is Possible"
In Episode 88, we welcome portfolio manager, Eric Clark.
As usual, we start with Eric’s background, which spans 25 years in the investment industry. After working for an asset manager, Eric realized he wanted to do something passion-based – a “timeless equity strategy.” So, when he felt he had the answer, he created a suite of consumption-based brand strategies.
Meb asks about these brands and how they play a role in Eric’s portfolio construction.
Eric tells us he tasked himself with identifying some stable, persistent themes he could anchor to (for the purposes of building a portfolio). He tells us that “nothing is more persistent than a consumer’s propensity to spend.” With this in mind, he looked at the U.S. economy, and what drives it. Eric tells us that the consumption component of GDP has annualized at about 3.5% a year for 50 years. And of that, about 70% of our GDP is consumption. Now, take these two pieces together – “if consumption…is predictable then how do I build a strategy that taps into that?” The answer points toward buying great consumer brands.
Next, Meb asks about the framework. Eric says you need an index. Therefore, they created the Alpha Brands consumer spending index. The goal was a broad universe, tracking a lifetime of spending. For instance, a Millennial spends differently than someone from GenX. So, the idea was to create an index consisting of the most relevant and recognizable brands that track a lifetime of spending.
Meb asks how it works going forward? For instance, how would Eric see companies like GE and IBM? Are they great buying opportunities or dead brands?
Eric points toward IBM as a brand they’ll likely hold onto, as it’s still a powerful B-to-B brand. But he tells us the food packaging industry, for example, is coming under pressure. That’s because the type of food we buy is changing. He identifies Kellogg as a company facing challenges.
The conversation bounces around a bit, referencing valuation, where this brand-based type of investing fits into a broader portfolio, and how this type of strategy might be expected to hold up during a recession. Eric speaks to this last point by discussing consumer discretionary versus consumer staples, including the risk of rising rates.
There’s plenty more in this episode – where Eric believes the market is going in 2018 (he mentions some thoughts on earnings)… how international sales affect the brands-strategy… how the asset management industry seems to be moving toward the commoditization of portfolio construction, where advisors just want to own everything (in response, Eric tells us “I still believe that alpha is available and possible, and beating a benchmark is possible if you understand a bunch of things”).
We wrap up with Eric’s most memorable trade. It involves an ill-timed attempt to short banks in July ’09.
Hear all the details in Episode 88.
1/3/2018 • 49 minutes, 28 seconds
#85: Radio Show: Bitcoin Futures Are Here - What Now?
Episode 85 is a radio show format. Meb starts with a recap of his latest travels – this time he was off to New York then Europe. Then, it’s onto Q&A. Some of the questions and topics you’ll hear are:
To what extent do economic indicators have any effect on Meb’s view of the markets?
Bitcoin has been on a meteoric rise recently in advance of the introduction of Bitcoin futures on Sunday 12/10. What are the potential ramifications of futures trading on it? New money coming in? Prices imploding?
What about blockchain? How will it affect various industries?
Wes Gray and Toby Carlisle have argued that EV/EBIT is a better metric than PE for latching onto the value premium. Why not then use a cyclically adjusted EV/EBIT instead of CAPE?
Someone puts a gun to your head and tells you that you have $1M from an orphanage which you must invest in a single stock. What do you pick?
If enough people adopt a trend following approach, and the trend starts heading south, could it lead to a market meltdown like ’87?
What are Meb’s thoughts on the best ways to invest when your assets are stuck in a 401k?
As usual with the radio show formats, there are plenty of rabbit holes including the Big Mac Index, why you shouldn’t go into a sauna in Zurich wearing clothes, Meb’s old econometric models, and why expectations for the traditional 60/40 appear unrealistic all around the globe.
All this and more in Episode 85.
12/13/2017 • 51 minutes, 38 seconds
#86 - A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation
Episode 86 is a solo-Meb show.
It’s been 10 years since Meb wrote “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation” which is the top-downloaded paper of all time on SSRN. In the coming weeks, we’re going to publish a retrospective on that paper in the Journal of Portfolio Management. So Meb thought this episode would be a good opportunity to revisit the original paper and perform his 10-year post mortem.
Here’s the abstract of the new paper, and the backbone for what you’ll hear in this episode:
“In this article, the author revisits his seminal paper on tactical asset allocation published over 10 years ago. How well did the market strategy presented in the original paper – a simple quantitative method that improves the risk-adjusted returns across various asset classes – hold up since publication? Overall, the author finds that the model has performed well in real-time, achieving equity-like returns with bond-like volatility and drawdowns. The author also examines the effects of departures from the original system, including adding more asset classes, introducing various portfolio allocations, and implementing alternative cash management strategies.”
If you’re not familiar with Meb’s original “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation” don’t miss Episode 86. In many ways, this paper is foundational to the various market approaches Meb has adopted since.
12/12/2017 • 35 minutes, 17 seconds
#84 - Howard Lindzon - “I Think There's So Many Ways the Markets are Rigged That I Think It's Best to Just Follow Along the Trends"
In Episode 84, we welcome investor and entrepreneur, Howard Lindzon.
Howard starts by giving us his background. He was a broker who felt the pain of the ’87 crash. In the aftermath, he got the angel investing and entrepreneurial bugs. He’s currently an investor in Robinhood, and he started StockTwits – which you might think of as Twitter-for-finance. He also runs a fund, Social Leverage.
Given that Howard has spent plenty of time in the public markets, Meb starts by asking about his public market framework, and how he approaches markets today.
Howard tells us that he likes to see which investments are doing well, then try to join in – in his words “classic trend following.” He uses the analogy of the great white shark and the pilot fish. Howard is a pilot fish, following the great white. He likes this approach as “there’s so many ways the markets are rigged that I think it’s best to just follow along the trends.” Howard believes this approach of following the great whites also works in the private markets.
Meb asks about something Howard wrote in regards to learning to invest – it was something along the lines of “open an account, lose money, get a mentor.” Howard expounds on that, focusing on how everyone needs a mentor. Howard wants to help other investors through his own writing and advice. He references Millennials, and how he wants to use tools to help them.
Meb asks Howard’s advice for people who want to learn to be better investors, and how to find a mentor. This leads to a conversation about Howard’s site, StockTwits. Whereas Wall Street felt that people wouldn’t share quality investment information (just keep it to yourself so only you can benefit), Howard felt that many people would want to share their good ideas. Many of these people do exactly that on StockTwits. So, Howard suggests finding someone there that matches your own investing style and temperament, who has a consistent, good track record, and just follow along.
Meb asks which gurus Howard suggests following these days in order to get great information. Be sure to listen to this part to get the specific names.
Next, Meb transitions the guys toward private investing. He asks for an overview on the blurring of the lines between private and public markets, and the development of the seed stage being open to individuals.
Howard tells us things changed in 2007/2008 – it was “the cloud” that was the catalyst, bringing down the costs of starting a company. He says now we’re in a transition stage where many private companies are actually staying private for too long. He references Uber, saying how it feels a bit late for it to go public, but it’s too big to be private.
Meb asks about the realities of private market investing for listeners, noting how some of our pasts guests have had different opinions. Howard has some helpful thoughts you’ll want to hear, but he notes that to be a great angel investor, you need to invest over multiple generations – 20 years or so. You need this time to see an overall crop of investments work out.
This leads into a discussion of Howard’s fund, Social Leverage. Howard gives us the details as to what they’re looking for, as well as the fund goals.
As always, there’s plenty more, including a discussion of when Bitcoin was less than $1, Howard’s publication, The Peloton, and, of course, his most memorable trade. Not investing in Twitter and Zynga when he had the chance comes to mind.
Hear all the details in Episode 84.
12/6/2017 • 52 minutes, 45 seconds
#83 - Randy Swan - “What Do You Do When Things Are Fundamentally Overvalued, But You Want to Remain Invested in the Market?"
In Episode 83, we welcome fund manager, Randy Swan, who’s calling in from the Bahamas after being displaced from Puerto Rico by Hurricane Maria.
The guys start with Randy’s backstory, which leads into why he started Swan Global Investments. In part due to his background in managing liability risk at KPMG, Randy was interested in a way to diversify away market risk. This led him to develop an option-based market approach called the Swan Defined Risk Strategy (DRS), which might be summarized with Randy’s phrase “always invested, always hedged.”
Randy walks us through his DRS methodology, which relies on asset diversification and the purchase of puts to protect against market drawdowns. He gives us more info on the duration of the puts, generally how far out of the money the system targets, and other trade specifics. This dovetails into a discussion of selling options as opposed to buying them. Randy uses selling strategies in an effort to generate positive returns on an annual basis.
Meb asks about the general response from investors, and how they view buying this type of portfolio “insurance.” Randy tells us most people think it makes sense, they just haven’t really been exposed to the idea. Rather, most people are used to hearing only about diversification.
The guys then discuss low volatility in the market. Randy gives us his thoughts, mentioning how now is a great time to hedge a portfolio given the low VIX. The conversation touches on whether you can still sell options in this low-VIX market. After all, it might be dangerous if volatility spikes. Plus, with so many investors having adopted a selling strategy in an effort to generate income, is this space crowded? Does it still work? You might be surprised to hear Randy’s take on it.
This is a great episode for options-fans and investors wondering how to stay in this market while adding some protection to their portfolios. You’ll hear more on volatility skew… the active versus passive debate (and how it misses the point)… Randy’s broad advice for listeners interested in implementing an options strategy… and of course, Randy’s most memorable trade.
Get all the details in Episode 83.
11/29/2017 • 52 minutes, 8 seconds
#80 - Claude Erb - “It Is Possible That We're in the Middle of a Period in Which Gold Becomes the New Frankincense"
In Episode 80, we welcome commodities and gold expert, Claude Erb.
As usual, we start with Claude’s back-story, but it’s not long before the guys jump into investing, with Meb asking about Claude’s general framework and view of the markets.
Claude tells us there are three concepts that guide his broad investing thinking: first, framing investment opportunities in terms of price/value relationships; second, the concept that no one gives away anything of value for free; and third, the idea that there really is no difference between a successful traditional fundamental approach to investing and a successful quantitative approach to investing.
This leads into a quick conversation about how market wisdom compounds over the years, but it’s not long before the guys jump into the topic of “gold.” Claude and his writing partner, Campbell Harvey, wrote the seminal paper, “The Golden Constant”, which explored the possible relationship between the real, inflation-adjusted price of gold and future real gold returns. Meb mentions how gold elicits far more emotion in investors than nearly any other asset, with different investors having an array of reasons or themes as to why they own gold.
Clause gives us some great commentary on the link between fear and gold, touching upon VIX contracts, volatility, and even Buffett’s and Dalio’s take on gold. The guys continue with the gold discussion, with Claude referencing some of the concepts from “The Golden Constant”. All you gold bugs (and historians, for that matter) won’t want to miss this.
There’s way more in this episode, including a discussion of commodities, various practical takeaways, and Claude’s thoughts on something called “the sequence of returns.” And of course, there’s Claude’s most memorable trade. What are the details? Find out in Episode 80.
11/15/2017 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 4 seconds
#81: Radio Show: Notes from Meb's Office Hours - Listeners Are All Making the Same Mistakes
Episode 81 is a radio show format. Meb starts with a note of thanks to listeners. It involves a milestone Cambria just passed as a company.
Next, Meb walks us through the common themes he’s hearing from his office hours. In short, all listeners are generally making the same investing mistakes (though everyone seems to believe his/her situation is unique). Meb tells us what everyone is doing.
Then, it’s on to listener Q&A. Some of the questions and topics you’ll hear are:
What’s the latest on global CAPE values? Which countries are cheapest?
Buffett was on CNBC the other day opining that stocks were cheap because you have to view them in relation to competing investment opportunities, and interest rates are still quite low. Thoughts?
Is it possible to construct a CAPE index for other asset classes besides stocks?
How do you recommend getting exposure to commodities? Aside from the physical metals, it’s hard to get good exposure because most of the ETFs invest in futures which get hurt by contract rolls. What’s the answer?
In the typical asset allocation, would muni bonds produce more alpha than Treasuries? What different risk would it introduce, and is it worth it?
Trend following is primarily a binary thing: You are in if your signal has triggered, otherwise out. But is it better to be in a market that is trading, say, 10% above your trigger than a market that is 1% above?
Is low volatility a valid and sustainable outperforming factor?
As usual with the radio show formats, there are plenty of rabbit holes. Plus, Meb is about to do some travelling overseas. Where’s he headed? Find out in Episode 81.
11/15/2017 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 49 seconds
#75 - Mike McDaniel - “One of the Biggest Conditions that Will Lead to Success is Simply Being Invested"
In Episode 75, we welcome Mike McDaniel, CIO and co-founder of Riskalyze. It’s a special episode, being recorded at the Riskalyze Fearless Investment Summit in Lake Tahoe.
Per usual, we start with Mike’s origin story, but it’s not long before the guys dive into investments. Meb asks about Mike’s investment framework – how does he think about the world as a practitioner.
Mike tells us he tries to let the market do as much as possible. One of the biggest things that will lead to success is simply being investing. And because our emotions can trip us up so much, by quantifying risk and then having a better idea of what to expect, we stand a better chance of success.
This concept is what lead to the Riskalyze Risk Number. Meb asks for an overview of what this number is and how it works.
Mike gives us a great overview of its background and how Riskalyze seeks to quantify risk on a scale of 0-100. (Basically “cash” to a “single stock.”) The conversation morphs into how the Risk Number has been further refined over the years, including the amount of historical data included.
Next, Meb brings up something Mike once said in an interview, about the two reasons why investing is broken. He asks him to expound. Mike tells us these factors are 1) the psychological pitfalls facing the mom ‘n pop investor, and 2) the complex nature of the investing environment (so many products available to the investor).
It’s not long before Meb brings up a current reality facing advisors: With asset allocation being largely commoditized with a low fee attached, where is the main “value add” for advisors these days?
Mike believes that the advisor’s role is to be the behavioral coach. He has multiple stories about the power of using data and analytics to keeping the investor invested. This leads into the most common mistakes Mike sees that many investors continue to make.
It’s not long before Meb turns the mic over to the audience (remember, this was recorded in front of a live audience in Lake Tahoe). You’ll hear:
Have Riskalyze numbers proven to be helpful when facing an SEC audit?
What will be the impetus that gets advisors to enter into the 401k space?
Most investors have traditionally relied on bonds to be a stabilizing effect on portfolios, but is the market we’re in likely to play that role? Given this, how does Riskalyze think about alternative asset classes?
In a world of low expected returns, how does an advisors balance business risk versus the client’s investment risk?
There’s plenty more in this episode, including Meb’s discussion of the impact of fees on various global asset allocations… home country bias… the challenges of trend-following… and of course, Mike’s most memorable trade. It turns out, he has two, the latter of which is what led to the creation of the Riskalyze concept.
What were the trades? Find out in Episode 75.
10/11/2017 • 56 minutes, 56 seconds
#74 - Jeffrey Sherman - “There's This 'Buy-the-Dip;' Mentality... Do You Play in It, or Just Shake Your Head?"
In Episode 74, we welcome Jeffrey Sherman from DoubleLine. We start with Jeff’s background – it’s a fun recap, including stories of running the scoreboard for The Stockton Ports… being a bank teller… earning graduate degrees… there’s a brief aside into catastrophe bonds which is a good primer if you’re less familiar with them… then back into Jeff’s background with DoubleLine.
This dovetails into Meb asking about the type of shop DoubleLine is, as well as its overall investing framework. We learn that DoubleLine will go into whatever market it finds interesting. They’re also a macro shop, which led them to fixed income. After all, Jeff tells us “If you want to know what’s going on in the world macroeconomically, the bond market tells you.”
Next, Meb asks how the world looks to Jeff today.
Everything is growing, but it’s not the same old growth. The difference is debt. Overall, it has been a positive environment for investing; inflation is low, but the price of assets now reflects this good environment and people are projecting that forward – but it’s not realistic. Many assets are expensive now. Jeff puts a point on the situation by saying “There’s this ‘buy-the-dip’ mentality… Do you play in it or just shake your head?”
The guys cover lots of ground here: Prices in the bond market have gotten ridiculous… Policy mistakes from the Fed… How this is “The Jay Cutler bull market” meaning it’s very “ho-hum”... how Europe is growing at the same rate as the U.S., yet they are continuing to do QE, while we’ve hiked rates four times… we’re talking about unwinding bonds while they’re buying – there’s a disconnect. And we don’t truly know what unwinding is going to look like.
This leads into a great discussion of bonds and how they respond to a rising rate environment. As Meb notes, most people hear “interest rates are going up” and they think “bond prices must be going down.” But that doesn’t have to be the case. Jeff dives into some great detail here on the math behind bond returns and rising rates. If you’re a bond guy, make sure to catch this part of the episode.
A few twists and turns later, Meb brings up a DoubleLine fund that combines U.S. equities in various sectors, paired with a fixed income component. He asks how is it designed, the benefit, and so on.
Amongst other details Jeff tells us, we learn that the fund applies a sector rotation strategy based on Professor Shiller’s CAPE ratio. Historically, people have used CAPE to evaluate markets. Jeff wondered why one couldn’t apply it to smaller subsets of the markets – sectors. For instance, utilities and tech have different profiles re: beta and whatnot. So why not take each sector’s CAPE and compare it to its own CAPE history? You then look for the cheapest sectors of the market. And you can avoid buying a value trap by apply momentum (in Jeff’s strategy, they throw away the worst one-year momentum sector).
Meb asks which sectors look good from a CAPE perspective now. Jeff tells us he’s looking at technology, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and health care. He was looking at energy, but he booted it due to its bad momentum. He tells us another high flier is the financial sector. Up 35% or so since the election.
Meb asks a Twitter question next – how much does DoubleLine incorporate technicals into their process? Jeff tells us that he uses technical more on trade implementation and things that are hard to value like FX.
There’s so much more in this episode: sentiment… Trump, and the D.C. status quo… commodities… the “Four Asset” portfolio… More write-in questions from Twitter… a quick descent into a crypto-rant… the biggest mistakes Jeff is seeing investors make… and of course, his most memorable trade.
What were the details? Find out in Episode 74.
10/4/2017 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 58 seconds
#72: Radio Show: Investor Sentiment - What is it Telling Us About this Bull's Length?
Episode 72 is a radio show format before we start back with guests this fall. Some of the questions and topics you’ll hear:
You've said that bonds can face significant drawdowns. But because of the way bonds work, is it the case that bond ETFs guarantee a positive return over time (assuming held to maturity and no default)?
I have heard that equal weight beats market cap because it sells the expensive stocks and buys the cheaper ones. I also have heard that most of the stock market gains over time are due to a small percentage of companies. So why does selling the winners down to equal weight and buying the lower performing stocks beat just letting winners run?
Are markets, in fact, growing more correlated?
Last week’s episode about a dividend strategy without the dividend… Why are so many investors against the idea of creating their own synthetic dividend despite its various advantages?
Robert Shiller’s new piece in The New York Times about current investor sentiment and its potential implications for this bull market
What are best practices for trading low volume ETFs?
As usual with the radio show formats, there are plenty of additional rabbit holes including the potential direction of the U.S. dollar, the velocity of money, and the tug of war between inflation and deflation.
What is Meb’s take on all this? Find out in Episode 72.
9/20/2017 • 50 minutes, 48 seconds
#71: How to Outperform One of Investing's Most Beloved Strategies
Episode 71 is a solo-Meb show in which he reads a white paper we’ll soon be publishing. The white paper might be a tad controversial as it calls into question an investing strategy that’s so beloved, it borders on sacrosanct.
What’s the strategy? Since this is a shorter episode, we won’t reveal it here. Instead, here’s a bit from the paper’s introduction…
“…Similarly, if you worship at the altar of this wildly-popular investing strategy, you too may find this paper’s contents equally blasphemous.
Yet if you find yourself feeling that way, I would encourage you to keep an open mind, for rejecting what you’ll read today would only shortchange yourself. That’s because I believe the approach I’ll suggest you consider in place of this beloved strategy has the potential to increase your returns significantly. And that’s just the start, because it also carries benefits that could result in even greater improvements for taxable investors.”
What are these strategies? Find out in Episode 71.
9/13/2017 • 26 minutes, 31 seconds
#70: Radio Show: The 13F Guru Meb Would Follow Today
Episode 70 is a radio show format. We start with a quick catch-up, discussing the recent eclipse and Meb’s upcoming travel, including Iceland, Reno, Orlando, Amsterdam, among others.
Before jumping into listener questions, we get Meb’s thoughts on Episode 69, which featured Jason Calacanis (Meb dabbles with some angel investments himself). Meb tells us a bit more about his own angel experiences and his reflections on interviewing Jason.
This dovetails into a question about how Meb allocates his own money between private investments, public investments, debt, and so on (with a “capital allocation” comparison to Thorndike’s book, The Outsiders). You’ll hear Meb’s thoughts on his personal asset allocation.
This segues into our first set of questions from listeners, focusing on where to put “safe” money right now. Meb gives us his thoughts, leading into a discussion of which asset could be right for listeners wanting to keep some money on the sidelines, yet without inflation taking too big a chunk of it.
What follows is an assortment of questions and rabbit holes: If Meb had to short just one market right now what would it be and why… How an individual investor should look at leverage in a portfolio (includes a recap of risk parity)… Who is Meb’s favorite 13F guru… What hedge fund replication strategies Meb finds most interesting… And even a cryptocurrency challenge to listeners from Meb.
What is it? Find out in Episode 70.
9/6/2017 • 53 minutes, 7 seconds
#67 - Simon Black - “I See a Lot of Red Flags"
In Episode 67, we welcome Simon Black, founder of the newsletter, Sovereign Man.
We start with Simon’s military background, having been an intelligence officer. He spent lots of time overseas, yet became disillusioned after the promises of WMDs failed to prove accurate. From this, he began challenging the status quo.
Underpinning everything was an ethos of personal freedom, which is at the core of what Simon’s newsletter, Sovereign Man, is really about.
Meb asks what global red flags and/or issues Simon is seeing now which might be challenging our personal freedoms. Simon tells us “I see a lot of red flags.” Specifically, he’s seeing a global trend toward socialism. People have a sense that the system is rigged. There’s an intuitive understanding that something is wrong, though people aren’t quite certain what it is, so they blame capitalism. But when people gravitate toward socialism (“I want more free stuff”), we run into the challenge of too many people wanting to jump on the cart, without enough people actually pulling the cart.
This leads to an interesting conversation about the effects of socialism in Venezuela, where Simon is located. He mentions how there are vast quantities of soil where the Venezuelans could be growing crops, yet there is starvation. He steers the conversation back to challenges here in the U.S., which leads toward the need for what Simon calls a “Plan B.” In essence, this is a plan intended to protect yourself and your assets from the various risks we face today on many levels – financial, personal, governmental…
Part of an effective Plan B ties to diversification. Simon mentions how if all of your assets are in the same banking system, then you’re not diversified. So, Simon suggests at least some money should be kept in banks outside of the U.S. – after all, there are many global banks that are better capitalized than those here in the U.S. He offers Hong Kong as an example.
The conversation drifts toward an example of personal diversification – getting a second passport. Simon thinks this is the ultimate option, providing tons of opportunities and benefits – all upside with no downside, for minimal cost.
Next up is Simon’s suggestion to legally reduce your tax burden. He tells us “reducing your taxes…that’s the easiest return on investment you’ll ever make.” Simon tell us a favorite tax-reduction technique upon Meb’s request.
Next up, the guys discuss having cash outside the U.S. banking system. The conversation references why this is important – just look at what happened in Cyprus and Greece a few years ago. This leads into a discussion of cryptocurrencies. Simon tells us how so many people putting money into crytos today now have no idea what they’re doing – do they even understand Bitcoin and Ethereum? Who has actually read the original white paper on Bitcoin?
There’s way more in this episode: where Simon is looking now for safe, margin-of-safety-style investments around the globe… how private equity can help your portfolio… Simon’s entrepreneurial advice… what Simon’s readers are most concerned about today… and of course, Simon’s most memorable trade – it involved day-trading Compaq (and losing everything).
How’d it happen? Find out in Episode 67.
8/16/2017 • 57 minutes, 44 seconds
#66: Radio Show: U.S. Equities: At What Valuation is Meb Selling?
Episode 66 is a radio show. We start with Meb referencing the just-published book, The Best Investment Writing, which he edited. It’s a great collection of essays from some of the smartest minds in investing. Check it out.
Next, we jump into market commentary, using Meb’s recent “office hours” as our vehicle for discussion. What that means is Meb had some extra time over the last few weeks, so he opened his calendar to his followers, scheduling loads of 30-minute phone calls with various individual investors and RIAs looking to pick Meb’s brain on a variety of subjects. Meb tells us the topics which came up the most often, as well as his thoughts. There’s talk of U.S. equity valuation (and at what level Meb would start selling even before a crash), angel investing, portfolio allocation weightings, and far more.
We end with several listener questions. The first involves how Meb views market breadth in light of the growth in index investing; the second solicits Meb’s thoughts on the dangers of ETF investments if the market heads south; the third is at what valuation level the buyback component of a shareholder yield strategy ends up being a headwind.
What valuation level did Meb indicate? Find out in Episode 66.
8/10/2017 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 31 seconds
#65 - Emil van Essen - “The Days of $80 Oil - That's a Long Way Away"
In Episode 65, we welcome CTA and commodities expert, Emil van Essen.
Meb starts with a fun bit of trivia – if you mesh his and Emil’s name, coming up with “Emil Faber,” can you guess in which movie that name appears?
It turns out it’s from the classic comedy, Animal House. “Emil Faber” was the founder of the movie’s “Faber College” and under his statue was his quote, “Knowledge is good.”
After Emil gives us a bit about his background, the guys jump into the deep end. Emil trades managed futures, and while most people think “trend following” when they hear “managed futures,” there are other styles. Emil tells us about a style he uses often, spread trading.
Emil looks at the term structure in commodities futures contracts. There’s a price for every month going out in time. You can trade the differences between those months (calendar spreads). He also trades relative value and roll arb. Emil likes these strategies because there’s tons of alpha available.
Meb pauses to explain a bit for any listeners who are less familiar with all this. He explains exposure to the futures markets, using oil as an example. This leads into a discussion about the growth of commodities markets. Back in the 2000s, commodities went from being just a product to an investment vehicle. So the powers that be created indices and various commodities products to meet this demand. Investments in commodities exploded, driving up prices.
This dovetails into what Meb calls “one of the dirty secrets of indexing,” which is how many indices can be front-run. Meb tells us how, for some 1.0 commodities indices, the slippage was in the order of 3-4% per year.
Meb then asks Emil to describe what he looks at when establishing a position. Is it fundamental? Technical? Emil tell us it’s very important that you use both, because “you have to understand the fundamentals because things change.”
Next is a great conversation about front-running trend followers. This is something that Emil does. He knows that if there’s a big move, the trend followers are likely all on the same side of the position, so when it comes time to roll the front month, and Emil generally knows when that will happen, Emil takes advantage of the price movement. Meb and Emil then discuss the easiest way to implement this strategy.
A bit later, the guys discuss what themes/positions Emil is interested in right now. He tells us how there has recently been a shortage in gasoline, so gas has been running up against crude oil. It’s at high levels now, and Emil thinks it’ll come down. Emil also tells us that he’s looking at grains, the energy markets, and certain metals including platinum and palladium.
This leads into a discussion on oil. Meb asks Emil’s take on the industry.
Emil gives us some great background on what drove oil up so high, and why it crashed. Then he discusses the technological revolution in oil drilling, the result of which is that the cost of finding and developing oil has collapsed. There are some great details in here which oil investors won’t want to miss, but Emil wraps up this part of the conversation by saying “the days of $80 oil – that’s a long way away.”
Meb then asks what areas of commodities Emil likes right now. Emil tells us his thoughts on at what level crude is buy. And he mentions a certain metal which he considers a “no brainer.” You’ll have to listen for the details.
There’s way more in this episode: how Emil views gold in light of new cryptocurrencies… A Twitter poll Meb conducted that reveals just how stubborn some investors can be when it comes to selling out of overvalued equities… Where Emil has seen the most investors make the biggest mistakes over his 25+ year career… The dangerous false belief that “we’ve seen this before” in the markets, and how computerized investing is taking us into uncharted waters… And finally, Emil’s most memorable trade (which was a loser that will get your blood racing).
What are the details? Find out in Episode 65.
8/9/2017 • 57 minutes, 48 seconds
#63 - Gary Beasley & Gregor Watson - “We're Trying to Really Change the Way People Invest in Real Estate"
In Episode 63, we welcome Gary Beasley and Gregor Watson, co-founders of Roofstock. If you’re one of our listeners who has written in requesting an episode on rental real estate, be sure not to miss this one.
We start with some quick background on the guys, how they came to found Roofstock, and the way in which their company is aiming to make rental real estate investing far easier. In essence, they want to simplify things by separating the “investing” side of rental real estate from the “operational” side of owning a rental home.
After the background, Meb starts with a broad, contextual question: So how would a new rental real estate investor start?
In the old way, you would identify a market in which you’re interested, look at tons of homes, make some offers, perform due diligence on the ones where the offers have some traction, renegotiation the price and finally buy, then find a property manager to handle operations for you.
But the guys then tell us how Roofstock is making this traditional process far simpler. Basically, the home and rents, tenant, and local property manager have already been vetted and approved. You see the various yields ahead of time. This enables investors to buy without all the traditional brain-damage. The guys tell us “Our goal is to make it incredibly easy to get exposure to the asset class (rental real estate).”
What follows is a wonderful discussion about some of the traditional challenges with rental real estate, and how Gary and Gregor are helping investors overcome those challenges. The discussion touches on how to compare rental homes across different markets… Evaluating rental homes via gross yield, net yield, IRR, and on an after-tax return basis… How Gary and Gregor arrive at rental home valuations… Financing versus all-cash buying…
There are also great tidbits of rental real estate investing wisdom dropped in. For instance, did you know that the total cost to a home-seller to vacate, spiff up, and sell is about 10-12% of the sale price? Did you know that the average cost of a property manager is about 7-8% of collected rents plus a separate leasing fee? Guess what percentage of rental real estate owners live within about an hour of the homes they own? You’ll find out…
Later in the episode, Meb asks about the range of yields on the various rental homes featured on Roofstock; specifically, why wouldn’t he invest in a handful of homes yielding, say, 25% versus those yielding just 5%? Is there a parallel here to high-grade bonds and junk bonds?
The guys tell us, yes, lower yielders tend to be the safer investments, whereas the higher-yielding homes are a bit riskier. But both potentially have a place in a rental portfolio, depending on the needs/goals of that investor.
There’s much more in this episode: the difference between buying single-family homes directly versus investing in a REIT… How to think about starting and building a rental real estate portfolio… How much time an investor would need to commit to being a landlord when not using a property manager… What happens if there’s another 2007… And Gary and Gregor’s single best piece of advice to listeners interested in starting with rental real estate investing.
What is it? Find out in Episode 63.
7/26/2017 • 53 minutes, 50 seconds
#62 - Ron Lieber - “We're Not Having the Right Kinds of Conversations with Our Kids About (Money)"
In Episode 62, we welcome journalist and author, Ron Lieber.
Meb begins by congratulating Ron, as it was Meb's pregnant wife who read Ron's book about how parents should discuss financial matters with their kids, and promptly told Meb he needed to read it and get Ron on the podcast.
Turning attention to Ron's book, "The Opposite of Spoiled," Meb begins by asking about Ron's motivation for writing it. Ron tells us there were three factors: one, a pointed question from his three-year-old ("Daddy, why don't we have a summer home?"); two, the focus of Ron's writing at work (young people who borrow vast sums of money to pay the huge college tuition bills); and three, his own situation as a teen, having seen the collegiate financial aid application process thanks to his mother. All of this together led Ron to the conclusion that "we're not having the right kinds of conversations with our kids about this stuff."
Meb mentions how it's a shame that they don't teach personal finance in high school, which makes it all the more important that parents have these discussions with their kids. Unfortunately, many parents are reluctant. Meb asks Ron why this is so.
Ron points toward shame. Perhaps parents are ashamed they don't know the answers to the questions (maybe they don't have a firm grip on finances themselves), or maybe they're ashamed at how much (or little) they earn, or at how they earn their money.
The conversation drifts toward a piece of advice in Ron's book; it's the suggestion that when facing a question from a child, the parent might ask "Why do you ask that?" The reason this is helpful is that many times, the stated question isn't really want the child wants to know. Questions like "how much do you make?" are rooted in fundamental questions such as "Mom/Dad, are we okay here? Is our family normal?"
Meb brings up the four things spoiled kids have in common from Ron's book and asks for some commentary. Ron tells us that, ironically, these spoiling factors have almost nothing to do with actual money. They are: one, not having any rules for kids; two, if there are rules, not enforcing them or having consequences; three, smoothing out the path in front of kids and making sure they never face any challenges; and four, allowing kids to grow up without any context for how lucky they are for their opportunities – no gratitude, and instead, an attitude of entitlement.
This dovetails into a great conversation about chores, which points toward allowances. Ron suggests dividing allowances into three buckets: savings, spending, and giving. The specific allocations will likely reflect the values the parent is looking to instill (for instance, if a parent wants to focus on giving, the allowance amount can reflect what the parent believes is an appropriate amount the child should skim off the top for "giving").
There's way more in this episode, and if you're the parent or grandparent of a young child, you don't want to miss this one. You'll hear more about the conditions that lead toward materialistic kids and how to avoid them... Unique ways to deal with things like a visit from The Tooth Fairy... How to handle kids wanting cell phones (do you know how long Bill Gates made his kids wait before buying them a cell phone? You'll find out)... And how to use a great tool called "The Fun Ratio" to help your kids make better spending decisions.
What is it and how does it work? Find out in Episode 62.
7/19/2017 • 1 hour, 44 seconds
#61 - Jack Vogel - “(Factor Timing?) It's Next to Near Impossible"
In Episode 61, we welcome Jack Vogel, CFO/CIO of Alpha Architect, and the partner of Wes Gray, who you may remember as one of our earliest Meb Faber Show guests.
After Jack tells us a bit about his background and how he came to be at Alpha Architect, Meb jumps in, starting with "factors" - specifically, the value factor. Meb asks about Jack's value philosophy in general, and how he creates a value portfolio.
What follows is a great look at how a professional portfolio manager/asset allocator creates a portfolio. Using quantitative tools, Jack starts by constructing the universe of potential assets to include, keeping in mind scale. Next, Jack applies some forensic accounting in order to exclude certain toxic assets that one wouldn't want in a portfolio. Then, he screens for value. Jack likes using enterprise multiples. Finally, he looks for "quality." These are things like free cash flow, margin growth and marketing stability.
Meb then points the conversation toward momentum investing. Jack offers us a general overview first, noting how momentum investing can be really beneficial for value investors. He also makes the point how it's definitely different than growth investing.
In discussing creating a momentum portfolio, Jack discusses adding seasonality (which means addressing when to rebalance) and quality. On the topic of quality, Jack gives us a great example of what it means in the context of earnings; it involves two stocks, one of which is flat for an extended period, but then explodes in value in a short amount of time, versus the other that experiences the same growth, but gradually and consistently over the entire period. Which earnings are more "quality"? Jack gives us his thoughts.
Next up is Alpha Architect's great tool, Visual Active Share. It's a wonderful way for investors to compare the holdings of an ETF to its benchmark index. Investors can use this to see just how "different" the ETF in question truly is. After all, you don't want to be paying too much in fees for an ETF that's really just a closet index fund. The guys discuss whether there's a particular number for what "good" active share is, as well as the challenge of tracking error as you grow more "different."
As usual, there's a great deal more in this episode: Alpha Architect's new value, momentum, trend ETF... A discussion of the state of robos... What new tools Jack and his crew at Alpha Architect are working on now in order to help investors pull back the curtain on various funds... And of course, Jack's most memorable trade - it was the last individual stock he owned, which he now refers to as 'The Titanic.'
What was the stock? Find out in Episode 61.
7/12/2017 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 37 seconds
#59: Radio Show: The Death of Value Investing
Episode 59 is a radio show format. This week we're diving into some of the recent market stories which Meb has found most interesting. We also bring back some listener Q&A.
We start with a Tweet from Cliff Asness, in which he rebuffs a Bloomberg article titled, "The Death of Value Investing." The article states that value isn't working. Sticking to that approach has resulted in a cumulative loss of 15 percent over the past decade, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. report. During roughly the same period, the S&P 500 Index has almost doubled."
So is value investing dead? Meb gives us his thoughts. We discuss its underperformance, mean reversion, and factor-crowding.
Next up is a New York Times article referencing a recent stance-reversal from Burt Malkiel, a passive investing legend. He's now saying he recognizes where active investing can exploit certain market inefficiencies. The same article has some great quotes from Rob Arnott on the topic of factor investing, and the danger in tons of quants all looking at the same data and trading on it. Meb gives us his thoughts on factor timing and rotation, using trend with factors, and the behavioral challenges involved in both.
Another Arnott quote steers the conversation toward backtesting - the pitfalls to avoid when backtesting, so you don't create a strategy that looks brilliant in hindsight, but is hideous going forward.
Next up are some listener questions:
I still can't wrap my head around how to use commodities in a portfolio. The Ivy Portfolio promotes putting 20% in a broad commodity index, but in the podcast, I've heard you discuss the financialization of commodities futures leading to loss of roll yield. So what's the answer here? Include commodities as an inflation hedge but be prepared to pay the price of long term drag? Or forget about commodities and just focus on stocks/bonds/real estate?
Please explain the difference between the unadvised practice of performance chasing and the highly encouraged practice of momentum investing.
I would like to know your thoughts on implementing lifecycle glidepaths for an individual or clients' portfolio. Your quant-style approach looks at risk a lot different than most, but I do see value in reducing portfolio risk as you come closer to withdrawing the money - the question is which risk, or what approach do you use to reduce the risk? Regarding your trinity style approach, does that mean reducing from a Trinity 5 to a Trinity 3 (for example) a couple years prior to retirement?
There's plenty more - including our new partnership with Riskalyze, which enables advisors to allocate client assets into Trinity portfolios. But the more interesting story is how Meb gave his wife food-poisoning the other night. How'd he do it?
Find out in Episode 59.
6/28/2017 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 53 seconds
#58 - Axel Merk - “Is Your Portfolio Robust Enough for Whatever Might Be Coming Your Way?"
In Episode 58, we welcome Axel Merk from Merk Investments. After a bit on Axel's background, the guys jump in, discussing the Fed's decision to raise interest rates today (recorded on Wed 6/14/17).
Axel discusses how the Fed has announced the normalization of its balance sheet and the pace at which it would like to do so - but they've left out lots of details. He likens it to driving into a tunnel with no lights on. In essence, the Fed doesn't know where it wants to go.
Axel's response touches upon our current low volatility. Meb hones in on this, asking if the low volatility is in part due to actions from the Fed.
Axel believes this to be the case (central banks in general, not just the Fed). Yet there's plenty more, involving how central bank activity has fueled this up, up, up market, with investors piling into risk assets. But Axel thinks asset prices are likely to come down from here. He says "A lot of that (rising asset prices) has been induced by central banks. The unwinding of that is going to be, at the very least, let's put it in quotes "'interesting.'"
Meb then focuses the conversation on equities. He says how here in the U.S. they're expensive. So what does Axel see as the opportunity set in equities around the globe?
You'll need to listen for the details, but Axel likes a pairs trade, going long France and short the S&P. Of course, he is quick to say he could be wrong on both legs.
Meb segues to China, as Axel had mentioned it earlier. If you're a regular Meb Faber Show listener who heard Steve Sjuggerud and Jason Hsu's thoughts on China, you'll want to hear Axel's thoughts for a different take. He's not nearly as bullish. He concludes by saying "I happen to think that if you want to be looking at the one risk event that's out there, that's going to get people's attention, China is certainly at the very top of the list."
Since Axel is a currency guy, Meb then brings currencies into the conversation, asking how investors might think about them in a broader portfolio context.
Axel gives us a great overview of different currency markets, with additional detail on the Dollar vs Euro. Overall, he sees the Dollar toward the top of its cycle, and the Euro toward its bottom. He concludes by predicting that the Euro will be substantially stronger a year from now.
There's a great deal more in this episode: whether retail investors should be following an endowment allocation... how holding cash is not necessarily a bad investment choice... a great discussion on gold, and how it fits into a portfolio... even Axel's thoughts on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin.
And of course, we get Axel's one piece of investment advice for listeners, as well as his most memorable trade (Hint - he bought Apple early).
Find out all the details in Episode 58.
6/21/2017 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 28 seconds
#57: Radio Show: Meb's 17 Different Million-Dollar Fintech Ideas
Episode 57 is another "radio show" format, yet this one is different than our others.
In this episode, Meb discusses his 17 different "million-dollar" fintech ideas. In essence, Meb has had various business ideas over the years which he's wanted to pursue, but hasn't had the time. Some he's tweeted about, some he's blogged about, others he's kept to himself. But in Episode 57, he'll run through all 17, diving into more detail.
Can a listener take one and run with it? Sure. Let us know how it works out! Or work on it with us. We're open to ideas.
Either way, here are the 17 concepts:
Our new "podcast compilation" idea
Liquid alts newsletter
Quant backtester
Tax harvesting
Best ideas newsletter
Research boutique for crowdfunding companies
Syndicate podcast/newsletter
Ruykeyser reborn
The Street 2.0
HedgeFundLetters.com
NewsLetterSampler.com
Tactical roboadvisor
Free Acorns/Stash clone
Free ETF trading brokerage
FreeShares ETFs
Quant cookbook
The "Forever" fund
Are all of these ideas good? (We have our doubts...)
But find out for yourself in Episode 57.
6/14/2017 • 1 hour, 33 minutes, 32 seconds
#55 - Ed Easterling - “In Reality, Normal is Actually Volatile. Normal is Not Mellow"
In Episode 55, we welcome Ed Easterling. Meb starts by referencing a survey he just conducted, asking readers’ opinions as to the single best investing book out there. It turns out that Ed’s book, Unexpected Returns, made the top 50 list, so Meb offers Ed a kudos.
But the guys hop into market discussions quickly. Ed tells us that the stock market is not driven by randomness. It’s predictable in the long run, driven by three components: 1) earnings growth, 2) dividend yield, and 3) the change in valuation level. Stock market returns over the short-term are unpredictable, but over the longer-term they’re highly predictable. And the key driver is the starting level valuation.
Meb brings up how numerous investors are currently expecting 10% returns (based on long-term averages). He asks Ed if that’s warranted.
It turns out, we need to distinguish between long-term returns (say, 100 years) and a return-period that’s more relevant to the average investor (say, 10 or 20 years). This is because changes in PE levels are much more significant for returns over 10-20 year periods for individual investors, more so than over 100 years.
Meb asks if Ed has a favorite PE ratio. Ed likes Shiller’s CAPE and the Crestmont PE – which is driven by GDP and EPS. Ed finds value in comparing the two. They have similar results yet have different approaches.
All the talk of valuation leads the guys into a discussion of secular versus cyclical markets. Ed offers some general context for secular versus cyclical, then says we’re definitely in a secular bear market. He offers up some great details here, factoring in valuations and the inflation rate.
Meb asks what will make the cyclical bear end? Ed says the PE has to get low enough where it can double or triple. So, starting out in the high 20s right now, the PE would need to get down to at least the mid-teens, if not the low-teens.
Soon, the conversation gravitates toward “volatility gremlins,” with Meb asking Ed to define the term and explain.
There are two volatility gremlins that compromise the compounded returns investors receive: 1) the effect of losses – Ed gives us example of the math behind wins and losses; 2) the dispersion of returns – steady returns yield the best compounding, but when returns are more dispersed, it adversely affects the compounding. Meb asks, “what then?” How does one build a portfolio knowing this? Ed answers by giving us a great analogy involving rowing and sailing.
Next, the guys touch on volatility and what will be the trigger that moves us from this mellow inflation environment. Ed says that volatility is a reflection of the movement of the markets, which also reflects investor sentiment and complacency. By one of the measures of volatility that Ed tracks, he says we’re well-into the lowest 3% or 4% of all periods since 1950. The other volatility measure is the VIX, which is settling again, back around 10. Do you know how many days since 1990 the VIX has dipped below 10? Ed tells us, and yes, we’re flirting with a sub-10 level right now.
There’s far much more in this episode: Where Ed would point a new investor starting in this environment… The biggest investing misconception Ed sees from his students… Ed’s favorite investing styles/strategies within the hedge fund space… And advice for retirees and/or income investors.
What is it? Find out in Episode 55.
5/31/2017 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 18 seconds
#53: Radio Show: Cheapest Countries Right Now for New Dollars
Episode 53 is another “radio show” format. This means we tackle a handful of topics from Meb’s blog and tweets.
TOPIC 1 – VALUATIONS
3 DIFFERENT TAKES ON CURRENT VALUE PICTURE:
Meb’s recent blog post “A Bar Too High” indicated that for stocks to meet expectations over next 10 years, valuations must rise to highest they’ve ever been in history. With a current CAPE ratio of 29, that means the stock market multiple needs to INCREASE to all-time 1999 bubble highs to meet investor expectations. He thinks tepid growth is more realistic.
On the other hand, James Montier, member of the asset allocation team at the Boston-based asset manager GMO, is convinced that the US stock market is in bubble territory. However, European equities aren’t particularly cheap, either. Only emerging markets value-stocks appear vaguely attractive to him. Investors should be patient and hold a lot of cash in their portfolios in order to be able to buy when markets are correcting.
What would make the US equity market attractive again – how much would it have to correct? To get back to our sense of fair value tomorrow, it would have to fall by more than 50%. Then we would be on average valuation, which again we estimate based on profitability going back to normal.
A third option from a reader question: “Lately there seems to be a lot of talk about CAPE measure not being as meaningful as many seem to think that it is because the very low yields on bonds and full pricing of bonds are basically changing the overall risk adjusted returns landscape. I think the point people are making is that stocks are fairly priced for current overall market conditions, despite many indicators which suggest that prices are historically high.”
Three viewpoints – how does Meb see them all? You’ll hear his take.
TOPIC 2 – INVEST IN SINGLE STOCKS AT YOUR PERIL
A new study by finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder, called “Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?” found that while investing in the overall stock market makes sense, individual stocks resemble lottery tickets: A very small percentage of winning stocks have done splendidly, but when gains and losses are tallied up over their lifetimes, most stocks haven’t earned any money at all. What’s more, 58 percent of individual stocks since 1926 have failed to outperform one-month Treasury bills over their lifetimes.
Professor Bessembinder found that a mere 4 percent of the stocks in the entire market — headed by Exxon Mobil and followed by Apple, General Electric, Microsoft and IBM — accounted for all of the net market returns from 1926 through 2015. By contrast, the most common single result for an individual stock over that period was a return of nearly negative 100 percent — almost a total loss.
Given all this, what reason is there for the average retail investor to be in specific equities instead of broader sector and index ETFs?
TOPIC 3 – VOLATILITY
We'll post a chart about our current low volatility – actual U.S. stock market volatility going to back 1928 has only been lower about 3% of trading days.
How does Meb interpret this – do these low readings mean a reversion is likely? Or is it the opposite – more of a trend approach where objects in motion tend to stay in motion?
Also, how would an investor act upon this using a tail-risk hedging strategy involving puts?
There’s plenty more and a handful of rabbit holes in this radio show episode, including investor sentiment, the name of Meb’s new child, how to avoid value traps, and yes, as the title suggests, the cheapest countries in the market today.
What are they? Find out in Episode 53.
5/18/2017 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 26 seconds
#52 - Jason Hsu - “This is a Market Where the Average Human Tendencies Are Precisely the Wrong Thing to Do"
In Episode 52, we welcome Jason Hsu, joining us all the way from Taipei. We start with a bit of background on Jason and his company, Rayliant, which is a spinoff off Research Affiliates. Listeners might recognize the name Research Affiliates, as it was co-founded with another Meb Faber Show guest, Rob Arnott. Rob and Jason decided to spin off Rayliant to enable Jason to focus on his investing passion, China.
As the conversation naturally led to China, Meb decides to run with it. He brings up how a prior Meb Faber Show guest (Steve Sjuggerud) is incredibly bullish on China. Meb asks Jason for a “boots on the ground” perspective. Does Jason agree with Steve’s bullishness?
In short, absolutely. Jason has two hypotheses as he evaluates China: One, as China continues moving toward, and eventually becomes, the world’s largest economy, investors will realize they’re underexposed to this market. Given this, there will be major rebalancing into Chinese equities; Two, Jason tells us that approximately 80-90% of Chinese daily trade flow comes from retail investors (here in the U.S. this percentage is significantly lower). This means more market inefficiencies, so the probability for “alpha” for managers is greater. Both these factors make China a market that should be on investors’ radars.
The China discussion dovetails into investor sentiment on China, and how emotionally-driven we are, which typically ends in underperformance. This leads Meb to ask pointedly, why are people so bad at investing?
Jason gives us his thoughts, which tend to reduce to “flow chases short-term performance.” He goes on to say how oftentimes, investors get crushed as they buy in at the peak of a style or asset class cycle.
Meb asks how investors should combat this. Jason has a classic response: “Whatever you think is a good idea… do the opposite and you’re going to be more successful.” The reason this tends to work is because “This is a market where the average human tendencies are precisely the wrong thing to do.”
This prompts Meb to bring up a study idea he wants a listener to undertake for him regarding historical news headlines and investor sentiment. Listen for the details. Anyone up for the project?
The guys stay on the topic of behavioral challenges, with Meb pointing toward one of Jason’s papers about how investors prefer complexity to simplicity. It’s a fascinating look into our wiring as humans and why investing is such a challenge for us.
Next, the guys move on to smart beta and factor investing. Meb asks Jason to provide an overview, and any main takeaways for investors implementing smart beta strategies.
Jason gives us his thoughts, including revealing his personal favorite factor: value. This leads the guys into a discussion of Warren Buffett and his true alpha being his ability to stick to his style and not abandon it at precisely the wrong time, as most of us do. The guys then discuss manager performance and underperformance, and the tendency to always be chasing.
There’s far more in this episode: Meb’s “forever fund” idea (which most people he’s discussed it with actually hate)… Why hedge fund lockups and opaqueness can actually be a good thing… The unique “values” which Jason created for Rayliant, and how they’re so different than those of most other money managers… Jason’s most memorable trade… And lastly, his final takeaway for listeners looking for better market performance.
What is it? Find out in Episode 52.
5/17/2017 • 54 minutes, 8 seconds
#51 - Mark Kritzman - “We Have to Question the Assumptions that Underpin Our Models... Nothing is Simple"
In Episode 51, we welcome Mark Kritzman. Per usual, we start with Mark’s background. He tells us a bit about his 40-year career in investing, leading to Windham, where he focuses on asset allocation and risk premia strategies.
But it’s not long before the guys jump in, starting with Mark’s 7th book, A Practitioner’s Guide to Asset Allocation, which will be coming out soon. Mark describes the process of asset allocation, starting with the basics, then taking us a layer deeper, discussing asset allocation as a way to balance the goal of increasing wealth while minimizing drawdowns. In essence, you need to identify the asset classes you want, evaluate their expected, long-term returns, then estimate the volatility of each and – just as importantly – estimate the correlation between the asset classes. With all this, you then find the particular allocations that give you the highest return for the same level of risk – the efficient frontier.
Next, the conversation takes a turn toward investing fallacies, including the idea that asset allocation drives more than 90% of performance. Mark tells us there are some flaws with this idea, then explains in detail. Another fallacy discussed is that of time-diversification – the assumption that investing over the long-term is safer than investing over shorter periods. Again, Mark provides details that call into question this belief.
The guys then get into investing in illiquid assets, and how to appropriately structure them in an asset allocation. It can be hard to maintain a balanced portfolio consisting of illiquid assets. Mark’s approach is to treat liquidity as a shadow investment. In essence, you attach a shadow asset as well as a shadow liability to the appropriate parts of the portfolio. You’ll want to listen to this part of the episode for all the details.
This dovetails into hedge funds, since hedge fund investing can also be illiquid. Meb asks how Mark thinks about hedge fund investing, and given limited information, is an investor’s only recourse to be able to pick the best managers? And if one doesn’t have that ability, should he/she just stick with investing in the S&P?
Mark has a great answer about how most of the historical premium of private equity over public equity can be attributed to the sector exposures of private equity funds. So investors can build a portfolio of public sector ETFs in a way that can approximate much of the hedge fund sector allocation. You’re probably going to be surprised at just how much of the premium of private equity over public equity doing this which would have delivered to an investor.
As usual, there’s plenty more in this episode: the role of fees and taxes… the concept of “turbulence”… the absorption ratio, and how we can use it to evaluate risk… and lastly, what Mark’s most useful idea is for listeners.
What is it? Find out in Episode 51.
5/10/2017 • 52 minutes, 32 seconds
#50: Radio Show: Faber Spin-Off Executed
Episode 50 is a return to our “radio show” format, in which we discuss current market news, Tweets Meb finds interesting, various research papers of note, and anything else on Meb’s mind.
But first things first: A huge congratulations to new father, Meb Faber. His “spin-off” came in the early morning hours just a few days ago. In fact, this episode was recorded with Meb calling in from a spare room at the hospital.
The Meb Faber Show also just passed the one-million downloads mark. So a huge thank-you to everyone who has tuned in, listened, and recommended us to your friends. We’re genuinely grateful to everyone for giving us their time each week.
Diving into the financial content, we start with Meb discussing the need for investment literacy with kids and new investors. The problem is that most of us learn to invest incorrectly – generally, we learn about single stock valuation. As Meb tells us, the problem is that far more historical context is needed before even getting to this point. What have equity and bond investments averaged over the years? How cyclical are the markets? What does a bubble look like and how to you avoid one? In essence, there’s so much to learn in order to be an informed investor before diving into the details of, say, a cash flow statement or a price-to-earnings ratio.
This ties into a conversation about expected returns going forward. Turns out, a recent source indicated that some investors are still expecting to make 8.5% per year going forward. Is this realistic? Not if you go by Bogle’s formula. Meb explains in detail.
Next, Meb made a recent change to his personal investment portfolio. Since he believes it to be important to be transparent about how he invests, he publishes this online. Meb tells us about his recent change, in which he added a tail risk hedging component. He expects it to be a drag on portfolio returns under normal circumstances, but it should provide him some protection if the U.S. equity market spikes lower. This bleeds into a discussion on bonds, and where they might going, since roughly 90% of Meb’s new hedge investment actually is invested in 10-year Treasuries.
Next up is a quote from John Bogle which Meb recently Tweeted. It’s about risk, valuations, and indexing. It leads into a discussion about whether there’s a valuation at which the risk of owning stocks outweighs the potential reward of remaining invested. We discuss market timing, and the possibility of exiting stocks due to absurd valuations – and potentially missing great gains as the market climbs higher, indifferent to your opinion that it was too overvalued.
The conversation takes another shift, gravitating toward active versus passive funds, the toxic effect of fees when buying active funds, and the problem of “active share.” Active share references the degree to which a fund in which you’re invested differs from its benchmark. If you want to invest in a smart beta fund, typically you want to see high active share (lots of difference) compared to a vanilla index fund – especially if the fund fees are high. Unfortunately, there are lots of funds out there claiming to be different, but they’re actually “closet indexing.” All you’re doing is paying through the teeth for something you could buy much more cheaply. Meb discusses in detail.
There’s lots more in this episode, including a “coffee can” portfolio… the challenges of “looking different” when the market and/or your neighbors are doing better (even though over a longer investing horizon, you’re positioned to be in better shape)… “over-rebalancing” toward global markets these days… why Europe has been a horrible investment for a decade and what its prospects might be going forward…
What are Meb’s thoughts? Find out in Episode 50.
5/3/2017 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 30 seconds
#49 - Steve Sjuggerud - “This is Not What the Peak of a Bull Market Looks Like"
In Episode 49, we welcome Dr. Steve Sjuggerud. The conversation begins with Meb and Steve reminiscing about the origin of their friendship, which dates back some 10 years. This leads the guys into Steve’s background, and how he transitioned from being a broker into being the highly-popular investment newsletter writer he is today.
Meb asks Steve to describe his investing framework. Similar to Meb, Steve likes both value and trend. Specifically, he looks for 3 things: assets that are “cheap,” “hated,” and “in an uptrend.” This methodology applies to all sorts of asset classes. The guys dig deeper into value and trend, leading to Steve ultimately to say, “If I had to choose between one or the other, I would actually choose momentum over value.” Meb agrees.
Next, Meb asks how the world looks to Steve today. Is he buying? Defensive? Where’s he looking? And so on…
Steve tells there are always reasons to sell or stay out of the market. Despite this, Steve’s thesis is that interest rates will stay lower than you can imagine, longer than you can imagine. And this will drive asset classes higher than we can imagine. We’re still not at absurd equity levels yet here in the U.S. – Steve says we’re maybe around the 7th or 8th inning of this bull market. But the biggest gains can often come at the end of a bull market, so there’s potentially more significant room to run.
As the guys discuss this, the conversation tilts toward investor sentiment. They agree that irrational exuberance for this bull market simply doesn’t exist right now. There’s no euphoria. Steve sums it up simply: “This is not what the peak of a bull market looks like.”
Yeah, valuations are high, but interest rates are near historic lows. Relative to bond yields, the equity values are far more reasonable. Investors need to compare returns to what you can get through other asset classes.
The guys jump around a bit, touching upon the warning signs Steve will look for to tip him off as to when to bail on U.S. stocks, a discussion of the Commitment of Traders report and how to use it, and then a discussion of U.S. housing and how it’s a solid investment right now because housing starts are nowhere near what they need to be to equalize supply and demand.
The guys then turn toward foreign equities, where it appears that value and trend are lining up. Foreign has been cheap for a while, but it’s been underperforming. And now that appears to be changing. Meb asks Steve to tell us what he’s seeing – it generally boils down to one big thing: China.
You’ll definitely want to listen to this part of the discussion, as Steve tells us about a revolution in mobile payments that’s already happened in China (and will likely happen here in the U.S.). But beyond that, Chinese stocks as a whole are now incredibly cheap. Even better, there are going to be tailwinds of adding Chinese stocks to a major index. I won’t get into the details here, but the analogy the guys use is having the teacher’s manual of a high school textbook with all the answers ahead of time. Best of all, Steve gives us the names of some actual ETFs that may benefit from this trend.
There’s much more in this value-packed episode: gold and gold mining stocks… Steve’s investment in St. Gaudens coins… Steve’s surfboard and vintage guitar collections (including the story of a $30K guitar he bought and later sold for $72K)… And of course, Steve’s most memorable trade – which involved a painful 50% loss for Steve and his subscribers, all stemming from the lie of a certain global politician.
Which politician and which lie? Find out in Episode 49.
4/26/2017 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 40 seconds
#48 - Van Simmons - “The Rare Coin Market Can Go Up Dramatically, Quickly"
In Episode 48, we break new ground for The Meb Faber Show. Departing from our usual world of stocks and bonds, we welcome expert numismatist, Van Simmons. For anyone unfamiliar with the word, a “numismatist” is a rare coin collector.
We start where we usually do – with a bit of background on our guest. Van gives us a quick overview on how he got into his line of work. But it’s not long before the guys jump into the world of rare coins, with Meb asking Van to provide a general, contextual overview.
Van’s description of the world steers the conversation toward perhaps one of Van’s biggest contributions to the coin collecting community – the creation of an innovative coin grading standard. Meb believes this grading standard was huge, as “not getting screwed” is such a concern for all sorts of investors.
Next, the guys cover a few, quick questions – how has coin space evolved over the years… what were the biggest seismic changes… and which demographic Van sees as the most active in this space. But they dig deeper when the conversation turns toward international demand – specifically from China.
Van tells us how he bought two high-grade Chinese silver dollars in the late 90s. He found them in his safe two and a half years ago, and wondered what they were worth. He called an auction company and was told that he could have sold them at their last auction about four months earlier for $60-70K a coin (Van actually sold the coins some months later at a hefty price, though not quite this high). And what had Van paid for those coins? $600 for one and $900 for the other.
Meb brings the conversation back to U.S. market, asking Van if there is a most famous or most traded coin – in essence, is there a “blue chip” coin?
Van tells us one of them would be a 1907 twenty-dollar high relief (a $20 Saint Gaudens). He follows up with more color on the coin’s origin, dating back to President Roosevelt, as well as some interesting trivia on it relating to its high-relief profile. Other coins Van mentions are the 1804 Silver Dollar and the 1913 Liberty Nickel.
Next, Meb asks how a new coin investor with a long time-horizon could get started with $10K. Meb reveals this is not an academic question – he actually intends to have Van build him a portfolio with a $10K seed. Meb’s criteria are: one, spread his money around as much as possible, say, up to 5-10 coins; two, he wants to tilt toward beautiful coins; and three, Meb wants coins that have some historical significance. Van gives us his thoughts.
The guys jump around a bit before getting onto the topic of counterfeiters. Unfortunately, this can be a problem. Van tells us a story illustrating the danger before the guys discuss how to avoid getting ripped off.
This leads into the topic of common mistakes that new coin collectors make. Van tells us that the biggest mistake is buying everything. The hardest thing to do is find someone you trust who will steer you toward great pieces that will hold value.
Next, Van and Meb branch out, discussing other collectibles. There’s talk of pocket knives, Native American artifacts, baseball/basketball cards – even a great story involving Meb’s mom and a Michael Jordan rookie basketball card.
Meb asks Van as technology improves, at what point does grading become software based, with optical recognition?
Turns out, this technology has already been here – and Van was a big part of its creation. But the collecting community preferred human-graders. It’s a fascinating story you’ll want to hear.
There’s lots more in this episode: a Mickey Mantle card worth $5M… Milton Friedman (one of Van’s clients) discussing the inevitable demise of the U.S. dollar… and of course, Van’s most memorable story related to collecting. This one involves a long-lost coin that turned out to be very valuable.
What are the details? Find out in Episode 48.
4/19/2017 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 55 seconds
#46 - Raoul Pal - “We've Got to Expect a Recession This Year or Next Year, or if We're at the Wild Extremes, the Year After That"
In Episode 46, we welcome Real Vision TV co-founder, Raoul Pal. The guys start by going over a bit of Raoul’s background.
Raoul started his career by running equity and equity derivatives at Goldman Sachs. Through this, he learned the macro investing world. He then joined a hedge fund, managing its global macro fund before retiring at 36 on the coast of Spain. But it was then that Raoul decided to start a research service, the Global Macro Investor, aimed at large, institutional players.
However, in 2008, Raoul realized the ordinary investor had been let down by the system and financial media. So, in an effort to help, Raoul founded Real Vision TV with Grant Williams. Real Vision features the smartest guys in the world teaching you how to invest, what their best ideas are, and so on…
After this background, the guys jump in, with Meb asking Raoul about his overall investing framework. Raoul tells us this whole game is about probabilities. To invest successfully, we look for times when the odds are in our favor. So, to look for these times, Raoul developed a system based on the business cycle – with a focus on GDP, as asset prices are moved by economic growth. The model relies heavily on findings from ISM reports (Institute for Supply Management). Raoul tells us that when looking at ISM numbers, it’s not just the level that counts, but also the rate of change of those levels. Overall, this model helps forecast S&P levels, bond yields, inflation, world trade… basically everything!
So, what is it saying now?
“We’ve got to expect a recession this year or next year, or if we’re at the wild extremes, the year after that.”
Meb brings up stats from Ned Davis, tying ISM levels to market returns. He says how last year, it appeared that ISM levels were rolling over, but then they steadied and now are a bit high. He asks Raoul what it means for us now.
You’ll want to hear Raoul’s response, which includes the possibility that asset prices may weaken soon – while bond yields may suffer significantly.
Meb then points to Raoul’s call of a potential short trade in oil. Raoul tell us that this is the largest speculation in oil – ever. Way too many people went long, and this speculative positioning is too far ahead of the actual business cycle. He says oil is maybe $10-$15 too high right now. It’s coming close to being a perfect trade setup. Oil could hit as low as $30.
Next, the guys discuss great opportunities around the globe. Raoul points to Cypress. Greek stocks are still hammered too. He says the upside could be huge – potentially 10x your money. Meb agrees, mentioning his own study about markets that have gone down big, or stayed down for many years. The upside is often spectacular.
The conversation then steers toward one the biggest emerging macro story in the world – India. You’re going to want to hear this one. It’s a fascinating story, and Raoul gives us actionable investment ideas.
Next up – Bitcoin. Raoul gives us a quick primer on Bitcoin and blockchain technology. He tells us that many people are confused as to what, exactly, it is – currency? Investment? Raoul gives us his thoughts.
There’s way more, as this episode is packed with great content. The guys talk about Google’s and IBM’s prospects as investments… artificial intelligence… making money entrepreneurially rather than through investing… and Raoul’s most memorable trade – it’s fascinating story involving the South African Rand that you don’t want to miss.
What are the details? Find out in Episode 46.
4/5/2017 • 59 minutes, 55 seconds
#45 - Gary Antonacci - “You Get a Synergy That Happens When You Use (Dual Momentum)"
In Episode 45, we welcome one of the most often-requested guests for our podcast, Gary Antonacci.
After a few minutes on Gary’s background, the guys dive into Gary’s “Dual Momentum” research. To make sure everyone is on the same page, Meb asks for definitions before theory. “Relative momentum” compares one asset to another. “Absolute momentum” compares performance to its own track record over time, also called time-series momentum. Gary uses a 12-month lookback, and compares his results to the S&P and other global markets. In essence, you’re combining these two types of momentum for outperformance.
The guys talk a bit about using just one of the types of momentum versus combining them, but Gary tells us “You get a synergy that happens when you use (Dual Momentum).” The compound annual growth rate applied to the indices is 16.2% dating back to 1971, compared to the S&P’s 10.5%. And the reduction in volatility and drawdown is under 20% compared to 51% for the S&P.
With the basics of Gary’s Dual Momentum out of the way, Meb decides to go down some rabbit holes. He asks about the various extensions on Dual Momentum. It turns out, Gary says you can introduce some additional granularity, but not a lot. Almost nothing really improves the current version of Dual Momentum substantially. (And in case you’re wondering, you can go to Optimalmomentum.com to track Gary’s performance.)
Meb then brings up questions that came in via Twitter. The first: “What sort of evidence would be required to convince Gary that Dual Momentum won’t work in the future?”
Gary tells us that because the evidence for Dual Momentum is so strong, the evidence against it would have to be strong. We would need more than a few years of underperformance, and instead, a full market cycle of underperformance. But more importantly, he’d want to understand why it would underperform – for instance, perhaps everyone decided to become a trend follower, squeezing out the alpha? Gary quickly ads that such a scenario will likely never happen due to our behavioral tendencies as investors.
The next Twitter question: “What are your thoughts on doing something alpha oriented versus just dropping into cash and bonds when you’re in a downtrend?”
Gary says shorting doesn’t work because of an upward bias to stocks. Meb agrees, saying that shorting actually amps up risk and volatility, but doesn’t really add to risk-adjusted returns.
Next, Meb brings up a post Gary wrote about commodities – are they still a good diversifier? The idea is that markets and their participants change over time. Gary thinks passive commodities have changed over time. And while they were a good diversifier to a stock/bond portfolio before, everyone has started doing it, which changed the nature of the market, reducing the benefit.
Gary also mentions the risk of others front-running you. Meb chimes in, agreeing – you’re going to want to hear this back-and-forth.
There’s tons more in this episode: moving away from market cap weighting when using Dual Momentum… Dual Momentum applied to sector rotation… sports gambling… our tendencies to stray from our investment plans… and Gary’s most memorable trade – hint: it involves an options blow-up.
What are the details? Find out in Episode 45.
3/29/2017 • 55 minutes, 23 seconds
#44 - Invest with the House
Last week’s solo “Mebisode” was met with lots of positive feedback, so we’re going to do one more in this format before we return to interviewing guests. Therefore, in Episode 44, Meb walks us through his book, “Invest with the House, Hacking the Top Hedge Funds.”
Picking stocks is hard—and competitive. The most talented investors in the world play this game, and if you try to compete against them, it’s like playing against the house in a casino. Luck can be your friend for a while, but eventually the house wins. But what if you could lay down your bets with the house instead of against it?
In the stock market, the most successful large investors—particularly hedge fund managers—represent the house. These managers like to refer to their top investments as their “best ideas.” In today’s podcast, you will learn how to farm the best ideas of the world’s top hedge fund managers. Meb tells us who they are, how to track their funds and stock picks, and how to use that information to help guide your own portfolio. In essence, you will learn how to play more like the house in a casino and less like the sucker relying on dumb luck.
So how do you do it? Find out in Episode 44.
3/22/2017 • 56 minutes, 15 seconds
#43 - Learning to Play Offense and Defense
Episode 43 finds us revisiting the “solo Meb” show. This time, he walks us through his research paper, Learning to Play Offense and Defense: Combining Value and Momentum from the Bottom Up, and the Top Down. If you’re on-the-go, then this episode is perfect for you as it’s a bit shorter.
Sorting stocks based on value and momentum factors historically has led to outperformance over the broad U.S. stock market. However, any long-only strategy is subject to similar volatility and drawdowns as the S&P 500. And as we all know, drawdowns of 50%, 60%, or even 90% make a buy-and-hold stock strategy incredibly challenging. Is there a way not only to add value on your stock selection, but also to reduce volatility and drawdowns of a long only strategy with hedging techniques?
In Episode 43, Meb examines how we might combine aggressive offense and smart defense to target outsized returns with manageable risk and drawdowns.
3/15/2017 • 25 minutes, 26 seconds
#42 - Listener Q&A Episode
Episode 42 is a remote podcast with Meb calling in from Hawaii. Fortunately, the roosters in the background aren’t loud enough to interfere...
Though this is a Q&A episode, it’s slightly different in nature. Rather than discuss listener questions, we’re experimenting with using some of Meb’s “tweets of the week” as our topics of conversation. It’s a way of getting inside Meb’s head a bit more. We’d love your feedback, so love it or hate it, let us know how we can make this format (or any, for that matter) better and more beneficial for you.
Some topics you’ll hear covered in this episode include:
- How do you know when your market strategy has lost its efficacy, versus when it’s simply having a rough stretch, yet will rebound?
Details: One of Meb’s tweets suggested “After you read Buffett’s new letter to investors, read this,” which pointed toward his post about how Buffett’s long-term returns have crushed those of nearly everyone else, though he’s underperformed the market in 7 of the last 9 years. This brought to mind a question which Meb asked Ed Thorp: “When do you know when a strategy has failed, versus when it is time to remain faithful, as reversion to the mean is likely about to happen?” The Thorp answer was generally, “Do your homework so you know whether your drawdown is within the normal range of probabilities, or something unique” We push Meb on how a retail investor is supposed to do that.
- With the VIX hovering around 11, is Meb considering buying LEAPS?
Details: If you’re not an options guy, don’t worry. Meb takes this question in a slightly different direction, discussing low volatility and options more in a “portfolio insurance” type of way. You buy insurance on your home and car, right? Buying puts at these low volatility levels has some similarities to buying portfolio insurance.
- The last time stock market newsletters were this bullish was Jan. 1987. To what extent does this level of ubiquitous optimism get Meb nervous?
Details: Lots of indicators seems to be suggesting we’re far closer to the end of this bull market than the beginning. Of course, that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen tomorrow. You’ll hear Meb’s take on various indicators and what he’s taking away from them right now.
- Newfound did a study, finding that the 60/40 model is predicting 0% through 2025. What are Meb’s thoughts in general?
Details: Meb is not surprised by this prediction. He’s discussed future returns based on starting valuations for a long time. But if you’re somewhat new to the podcast, this is a great primer on how Meb views potential returns of various asset classes going forward.
There’s plenty more, including something Cliff Asness referred to as “deeply irrelevant,” how advisers can excel as robos continue changing the investment landscape, Meb’s experience at a recent Charlie Munger speech, and Meb’s issue with Tony Robbins.
What is it? Find out in Episode 42.
3/9/2017 • 58 minutes, 49 seconds
#41 - Doug Ramsey - “Valuation Tells Me I Should Be Lighter Than Normal On U.S. Equities and Tilting More Towards Foreign”
In Episode 41, we welcome Doug Ramsey from Leuthold. Meb is especially excited about this, as Leuthold publishes his favorite, monthly research piece, the Green Book.
After getting a recap of Doug’s background, Meb dives in. Given that we’re in the Dow’s second longest bull run in history, Meb asks how Doug sees market valuation right now.
Doug’s response? “Well, that’s a good place to start cause we’ll get the worst news out of the way first...”
As will surprise no one, Doug sees high valuations – believing that trailing earnings-based metrics might actually be underestimating the valuation risk.
This prompts Meb to bring up Leuthold’s “downside risk” tables. In general, they’re showing that we’re about 30% overvalued. Across no measure does it show we’re fairly valued or cheap.
Doug agrees, but tells us about a little experiment he ran, based on the question “what if the S&P were to revert to its all-time high valuation, which was on 3/24/2000?” That would mean our further upside would stretch to about 3,400, and we’re a little under 2,400 today. Doug summarizes by telling us that if this market is destined to melt up, there’s room to run.
Meb agrees, and makes the point that all investors have to consider the alternate perspective. While most people believe that the markets are substantially overvalued, that doesn’t mean we’re standing on the edge of a drawdown. As we all know, markets can keep rising, defying expectations.
The conversation then drifts into the topic of how each bull market has different characteristics. Meb wants to know how Doug would describe the current one. Doug tells us the mania in this bull market has been in safety, low volatility, and dividends. Overall, this cycle has been characterized by fear – play it conservative.
The guys then bounce around across several topics: small cap versus large cap and where these values are now… sentiment, and what a difference a year makes (Doug says it’s the most optimistic sentiment he’s seen in the last 8 years)… even “stock market returns relative to the Presidential political party” (historically, democratic Presidents have started office at a valuation of 15.5, leading to average returns of 48%, while republicans have taken over at a valuation of 19, which has dragged returns down to 25%). The bad news? Trump is starting at very high valuations.
Next, the guys get into the biggest problem with indexing – market cap weighting. Leuthold looked at what happens to equities once they hit 4% of their index. The result? It becomes incredibly hard to perform going forward. It’s just near impossible to stay up in those rarified market cap tiers. So what’s the takeaway? Well, Doug tell us that he’d bet on the 96% of other stocks in the S&P outperforming Apple over next 10 years.
This episode is packed with additional content: foreign stock valuations… value, momentum, and trend… the Coppock Curve (with a takeaway that might surprise you – higher prices are predicted for the next 12-24 months!)… The best sectors and industries to be in now… Why 2016 was the 2nd worst year in the past 89 years for momentum…
Finally, for you listeners who have requested we pin our guests down on more “implementable” advice, Meb directly asks what allocation Doug would recommend for retail investors right now.
What’s his answer? Find out in Episode 41.
3/1/2017 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 51 seconds
#40 - Listener Q&A Episode
We’ve had some great guests recently, and have many more coming up, so we decided to slip in a quick Q&A episode. No significant, recent travel for Meb, so we dive into questions quickly. A few you’ll hear tackled are:
- Some folks talk about how the inflation numbers are manipulated by the government, and how the calculations have changed. Is there any merit to this?
- What is your opinion on market neutral strategies? If you had to build a market neutral ETF, what strategy would you use?
- Your buddy, Josh Brown, indicates that a significant portion of valuations, specifically CAPE, are the confidence in the stability of the stock market, which will justify high valuations here in the U.S. This makes intuitive sense, but I’d like your thoughts.
- Have you given any thought to the application of a trend following approach over a lifetime? Specially, use buy-and-hold when younger, but move to trend as one approaches retirement?
- Based on your whitepapers, you’ve indicated that trend following is not designed to increase returns, but rather, to limit/protect your portfolio from drawdowns. If this is the case, how does an increase in the allocation toward trend in your Trinity portfolios correlate to a more aggressive portfolio? It seems if “more trend” is supposed to reduce drawdowns, it should be found in Trinity 1 instead of Trinity 6.
- Have you done any research on earnings growth rates compared with CAPE to get a more accurate indicator of expected returns? For example, while the CAPE for many countries in Europe is low, their growth rates are also considerably lower than the U.S., which could justify the lower CAPE as compared with the U.S. Your thoughts?
- Does your “down 5 years in a row” rule apply to uranium, or is it too small?
As usual, there’s plenty more, including a listener wondering why Meb didn’t challenge Rob Arnott on a discussion topic during Rob’s episode, why Meb is in a cranky mood (involves auditing), and a request for more gifts of tequila from listeners. All this and more in Episode 40.
2/15/2017 • 52 minutes, 14 seconds
#37 - John Bollinger - “People Have This Time-Frame Confusion That I Think Does A Huge Amount of Damage”
In Episode 37, we welcome John Bollinger, creator of Bollinger Bands, one of the most widely-used analytical tools in investing.
As John is also a market historian, Meb start by asking him about his historical influences – those individuals who helped shape John’s perspectives on the markets and trading. John gives us his thoughts, identifying who he believes is one of the most important figures in technical analysis. This leads to an often-forgotten takeaway – that many of the most effective market concepts have been around for a long time. Some very profitable strategies that still work today were being explored 100 years ago.
Meb redirects, asking John about his background. It turns out, John was in the film business as a cameraman. But by a few twists of fate, he ended up in front of the camera, providing technical commentary on markets for a fledgling financial broadcast network.
This leads into a discussion of John’s famous “Bollinger Bands.” He gives us an overview of the tool, and how he came to establish it. In essence, Bollinger Bands can help investors identify relative market bottoms and tops, helping find direction for profitable trades.
Meb then asks if John’s thinking on Bollinger Bands have changed since the early days. John tells us that the core concept stands the test of time, though he has added some extra indicators.
Next, Meb asks about combining two types of analysis – technical and fundamental – something John calls “rational analysis.” For many people, you fall into one camp or the other. But John was able to find overlap between them. He tells us how, and even ropes in two additional types of analysis to include – quantitative and behavioral. He thinks combing all four works better than using any single one. Meb asks how you actually use them all together, to which John gives us his thoughts.
Meb then asks which sector John is currently identifying as a good source of potential trading profits – but he immediately discounts the validity of his own question. You’ll want to hear why. This leads into a great takeaway – using the right charts for entry/exit in a trade. Specifically, a trader may use a short-term chart to initiate a position, but then not move to a medium-term chart to help him navigate how long to hold the position. Instead, he keeps looking at the short-term chart, which obviously will oscillate, and potentially scare the investor out of the trade. John says “People have this time frame confusion that I think does a huge amount of damage.”
Meb then asks about trade management. John says the most neglected issue is position sizing. People need to know how much capital to commit to their strategy, and there is a mathematical “optimal” answer. In essence, the problem is “betting too large.”
This leads John to reference the trading concept of “regret” – the percentage of time you’re in a drawdown. Turns out it’s about 80% or 90% of the time you’re invested. The only times you’re not in a drawdown are when you’re setting new highs, and that’s pretty rare. But most investors hate drawdowns and just don’t do well with this reality (part of the reason why investing is so hard for most of us).
There’s far more in the episode, including the most influential books John has read, Bitcoin, currencies, how to trade volatility, and John’s most memorable trades (good and bad). What were they? Find out in Episode 37.
2/1/2017 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 49 seconds
#36 - Listener Q&A Episode
We’re back with the first Q&A episode of 2017.
We start by discussing the “Zero Budget Portfolio,” about which Meb wrote a recent blog post. The quick idea is that when considering your portfolio, you should start from scratch, or “zero.” Imagine your perfect portfolio – which markets you’d like to own, which assets, tilts, etc.
Now compare that perfect, hypothetical portfolio to your actual portfolio. To the extent that your real, owned assets have a place in your perfect portfolio, you’ll continue owning them. Any assets that don’t fit, you sell immediately.
But it’s not long before we dive into listener questions. A few you’ll hear tackled are:
- How do I decide whether I should use a robo-service or manage my portfolio myself? How likely am I to underperform a robo?
- We know that value can lag market returns, but should lead over time. What is the time horizon by which you determine whether a strategy like value is successful?
- Are there are country ETFs that you would not trade in a global, low-CAPE portfolio because of country risk?
- How has your timing model performed since you introduced it a decade ago?
- Will you discuss momentum investing versus chasing performance? It seems that a long-only momentum portfolio basically chases what has already gone up.
- Given real world tax issues, is active investing still a better strategy than buy-and-hold?
- Given that 44% of the S&P 500 revenue and profit comes from overseas, is there really a home country bias if you are invested in the S&P? And with this in mind, what is the right allocation to Emerging Markets?
As usual, there are plenty of additional rabbit holes, including options, currencies, and even the Baltic Dry Index. What’s Meb’s take on it? Find out in Episode 36.
1/11/2017 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 3 seconds
#34 - "Things I Find Beautiful, Useful or Downright Magical"
It’s a special holiday episode of The Meb Faber Show. We thought it would be fun to combine all the “beautiful, useful or downright magical” contributions from Meb and our various guests into one episode. If you’re one of our listeners who has written in to report how much you enjoy this segment, this one is for you.
A quick word – as we move from 2016 to 2017, we want to give a huge “thank you” to all our wonderful guests for having given us their time and wisdom. And, of course, a very special “thank you” to all our listeners. We appreciate your time in tuning in to us, your thoughtful questions and comments, and your overwhelming support.
In order to spend time with our families, we won’t be publishing a new episode next week on Wednesday 12/28. We’ll see you in the New Year!
12/21/2016 • 1 hour, 32 minutes, 22 seconds
#33 - Listener Q&A Episode
It’s another Q&A episode before everyone gets too busy with the holiday swirl.
Per usual, Meb has just come back from more travel, this time to Todos Santos, Mexico. He gives us a quick update before we hop into listener questions. A few you’ll hear tackled are:
- I don’t really understand Trend. In order to maximize return, wouldn’t it make more sense to buy below the simple moving average, then hold or sell when above it? I’m just applying common sense – buy when cheaper than average. What am I missing?
- If you were building an investment strategy for the next 30-40 years, would it more resemble the one found in your QTAA paper, an absolute value strategy (similar to what Porter discussed in that podcast), or your Trinity approach, which is more buy/hold with rebalancing?
- Have you ever considered a strategy that buys put option protection for equity portfolios when valuations are historically high? You could buy long puts or long puts/short calls to offset some of the option premium.
- Are recent bond yield increases causing you to tweak your bond allocations in the Trinity portfolios?
- How does your use of momentum differ from Gary Antonacci’s dual momentum system?
- I’m a banker, and can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard a variation of “Rates are so low at the moment, what a great time to borrow.” What are your thoughts on the long-term debt cycle, and how would you “time” leverage?
There’s plenty more, as several of these questions send Meb into deep, labyrinthine rabbit holes – one of which involves his thoughts on how to educate children about investing. He believes most parents today do it entirely wrong. So what’s the right way to raise a world-class investor? Find out in Episode 33.
12/14/2016 • 54 minutes, 16 seconds
#32 - Brew Johnson & Brett Crosby - "We Have Long-Term Aspirations of Disrupting the Entire Mortgage Finance and Securitization Market"
Episode 32 is like no other we’ve done to date. Local guys, Brew and Brett, run a startup in nearby Manhattan Beach – and it’s disrupting the real estate financing market. It’s not long into the episode before the guys give us the overview of how it works.
Peer Street invests in real estate debt. Now, when most people try this, there are too many intermediaries. The effect is the yield is stripped out. Peer Street is fixing this, focusing on short-term, high interest rate loans. The guys’ vision is to enable investing in real estate lending to be as easy as buying a stock through an online broker.
After giving us their fascinating professional backgrounds prior to starting Peer Street, Brew and Brett dive into how the process work.
There’s always been a shadow, niche market in this space. A real estate investor finds a good property that he/she is able to fix up and sell/rent. But to make the deal happen, the developer has to move quickly, and doesn’t have time to get a traditional loan through a bank. In steps a reputable cash lender, enabling the deal. Brew and Brett are enabling retail investors to take part in these localized real estate deals.
Meb asks about the range on yields… how many current deals they have… just general top-down metrics to paint the broad picture.
Since the end of Oct 2015, the guys have opened around $200M of loans. The average yield to investors is 8.5% net of fees and expenses. The average loan duration is 10 months. And the average loan-to-value ratio is 65%.
The guys then discuss how deals are vetted. There are approval processes, several layers of underwriting, a requirement wherein lenders have to commit their own capital, various data analytics, then stress testing of the loans.
Meb asks what would happen to these loans in a real estate Armageddon situation.
The Peer Street guys tell us they use as much data as possible to mitigate potential losses. And these are only 10-month loans, so to lose money, the borrower has to stop making payments and the value of the property has to decrease by about 35%. To try to protect against this, they run algorithms and compare the data to previous cycles. Then they consider what was the worst decline in that submarket. This helps them do a manual underwrite of the loan, after which they get an appraisal from an independent 3rd party. There’s far more on how the guys manage risk which you’ll want to hear.
Next, the conversation steers toward how an investor would actually take part in the deals. He/she can pick from, typically, 3-15 available deals at a time. Or investors can set up an automated system, establishing parameters from which Peer Street would match them with the right investments. Ten or more loans at a time is recommended for diversification, with the minimum investment being $1,000.
There’s way more in this episode, including Brew’s and Brett’s vision for how disruptive this could be, where this type of investment would fit into an asset allocation model, and an “imposter Cambria” that has Meb very angry. Curious why? Find out in Episode 32.
12/7/2016 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 37 seconds
#30 - Listener Q&A Episode
As Meb is back from another series of speaking engagements, Episode 30 starts with a brief recap of his travels. But we hop in quickly, first addressing the election. We’ve had several anxious people write in, requesting commentary on the financial markets now that Trump will be taking over. Meb offers his thoughts, which we can reduce to one word: irrelevant.
Next Meb gives us an overview of a white paper he’s soon to begin writing – a rebuttal to detractors of Shiller’s CAPE ratio. He provides some convincing points on why CAPE can be an effective timing tool. You’ll want to hear this if you’re a CAPE fan – even more so if you believe CAPE is flawed.
After that, we hop into listener Q&A. A few of the questions you’ll hear Meb tackle are:
- How does CAPE do as a valuation metric for a stock index when the composition of the index is changing or there is significant dilution?
- When it comes to value filters like P/B or P/E, how do you rank metrics which can become negative or distorted when they get too close to zero?
- Besides trend following, what other alternative strategies (e.g. long/short, diversified arb, global macro, market neutral, etc.) do you believe are a worthy addition to a balanced portfolio?
- Please address living through drawdowns versus using trailing stops. Discuss the tradeoff between minimizing drawdowns versus potentially missing huge recoveries.
- What do you think of using CAPE in Frontier markets? And does the 10-month SMA timing model work in these markets?
- How do you practically implement the bond strategy laid out in your paper, “Finding Yield in a 2% World”?
- James O’Shaughnessy’s “What Works on Wall Street” references an investing strategy that posted amazing returns for many years. Seems too good to be true. Any insights? Wouldn’t everyone be using this system if it really was this wonderful?
- Any pointers on how to do your own backtesting?
As usual, there’s lots more, including the common investor sentiment of “I’m waiting until the uncertainty dies down before I put more money into the markets,” Meb’s thoughts on cash and inflation, and the benefits of systematic investing. All this and more in Episode 30.
11/23/2016 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 3 seconds
#29 - Tom McClellan - "Now Everybody Knows What the Outcome Is, They Can Get Back to Focusing on Real Things That Actually Matter”
In Episode 29, we welcome market veteran, Tom McClellan. Meb starts with some background on Tom – he’s been doing financial writing for 20 years, likely making him one of the longest-running financial writers in the business.
The guys then provide an overview of Tom’s proprietary market tool, the McClellan Oscillator. The roots of the Oscillator date back decades ago, when Tom’s father, Sherman, was trying to develop a system by which he could better time corn purchases for their farming business. (It turns out, you can get a better price in March.)
In short, Sherman eventually crossed paths with some technical analysts who were exploring breadth statistics in the market (advance/decline line). Sherman applied moving averages to the advance/decline line, and a few tweaks later, we got the McClellan Oscillator.
Meb then asks about the best way investors can use the Oscillator, and what the signals are telling us now. Tom gives us a quick tutorial, then suggests that the Oscillator is saying “oversold” (keep in mind this episode was recorded on 11/9). It has been correcting since July, but now that election is over, maybe we’ll see that change.
With the election in mind, Meb brings up the sentiment he’s heard from many investors: “I want to wait until the election is over and things are more certain.” Meb finds this amusing, as when are the markets ever certain?
This segues into Tom’s election indicator. It had predicted Trump. Tom gives us more details about the mindset behind his indicator. In essence, we see market movements reflected in the poll numbers. In other words, the market is a leading indicator for where the polls will go.
As evidence, he references the election when Bush/Gore was too close to call, discussing this through the prism of what the markets were doing at the time. And in this most recent election, the indicator had called for Trump to win though the polls didn’t. Tom says that’s because the poll numbers before the election hadn’t reflected the big decline in the stock market in the week leading up to the election – but that decline did show up as a change in the actual vote.
This sets the guys off on a conversation about “sentiment” which is an indicator Tom loves. Then Meb steers the conversation toward interest rates and the Federal Reserve. It turns out, the guys believe you can tell where the Fed should set the Fed Funds Rate by looking at what the yield is on the 2-year note. It’s when that doesn’t happen that we see market issues. Tom gives us an example from Bernanke’s tenure.
Meb then points toward another chart from Tom: the S&P verse Federal Tax receipts divided by GDP – in essence, how much the government is collecting in taxes. What’s the relationship here? Well, if you’re against the government taxing too much, you’ll likely agree with the findings.
There’s more fascinating conversation about Tom’s various charts. For instance, the common conception is that a slowdown in the economy leads to an increase in crime. Tom says not true. Do you know what is correlated to an increase in crime? Inflation. What inflation does in Year 1 is what crime will do in Year 2.
Meb then asks about the biggest mistakes that investors make when creating their own charts. Tom tells us that people want to simplify too much. “Just give me the one chart that will work.” Unfortunately, there is no holy grail. If you’re looking for easy answers, the stock market is not the place to find it. Look for more obscure indicators. If everyone is using the same indicator, there’s no value there.
There’s lots more, including a conversation about “value.” Turns out, Tom doesn’t really use value at all. In fact, he says there are only two variables that matter. What are they? Find out in Episode 29.
11/16/2016 • 42 minutes, 2 seconds
#27 - Porter Stansberry - "There's Going to Be a Big Bill of Bad Debt to Pay"
Episode 27 starts with a quick note from Meb. It’s a week of freebies! Why? Meb is celebrating his 10th “blogiversary.” (He’s officially been writing about finance now for a decade.) Be sure to hear what he’s giving away for free.
But soon the interview starts, with Meb asking Porter to give some background on himself and his company, as Porter’s story is somewhat different than that of many guests. Porter tells us about being brought into the world of finance by his close friend and fund manager, Steve Sjuggerud.
This conversations bleeds into Porter’s thoughts on how a person should spend his 20s, 30s, and 40s as it relates to income and wealth creation. But it’s not long before the guys dive into the investment markets today, and you won’t want to miss Porter’s take. In essence, if you’re a corporate bond investor, watch out. Porter believes this particular credit cycle is going to be worse than anything we’ve ever seen. Why? There’s plenty of blame to go around, but most significantly, the Fed did not allow the market to clear in 2009 and 2010, and it means this time is going to be very, very bad. Porter gives us the details, but it all points toward one takeaway: “There’s going to be a big bill of bad debt to pay.”
Meb then asks what the investing implications are for the average investor. This leads to Porter’s concept of “The Big Trade.” In a nutshell, Porter has identified 30 corporate offenders, “The Dirty 30.” Between them, they owe $300 billion in debt. His plan is to monitor these companies on a weekly basis, while keeping an eye out for liquid, long-dated puts on them that he’ll buy opportunistically. He’ll target default-level strike prices, and expect 10x returns – on average. Meb likes the idea, as the strategy would serve as a hedge to a traditional portfolio.
Next, the guys get into asset allocation. Porter’s current strategy is “allocate to value,” but for him that means holding a great deal of cash. Meb doesn’t mind, as wealth preservation is always the most important rule. This leads the guys into bearish territory, with Porter believing we’ll see a recession within the next 12 months.
This transitions into how to protect a portfolio; in this case, the guys discuss using a stop-loss service. Porter finds it invaluable, as most people grossly underestimate the risk they’re taking with their investments, as well as their capacity to handle that risk. He sums up his general stance by saying if you don’t have a risk management discipline you will not be successful.
Next, the guys get into the biggest investing mistakes Porter has seen his subscribers make over the years. There’s a great deal of poor risk mitigation. He says 95% of his own subscribers will not hedge their portfolio. Meb thinks it’s a problem of framing. People buy home insurance and car insurance. If we framed hedging as “portfolio insurance” it would probably work, but people don’t think that way. He sums up by saying, “To be a good investor, you need to be good at losing.” Porter agrees, pointing out how Buffet has seen 50% drawdowns twice in the last 15 years. If there’s a takeaway from this podcast, it’s “learn how to hedge.”
There’s far more, including what Porter believes is the secret to his success. What it is? Find out in Episode 27.
11/2/2016 • 55 minutes, 27 seconds
#26 - Jeremy Schwartz - "You Should Be Hedged a Lot More Than You Are"
If you’re ready to dive straight into the deep end, Episode 26 is for you. The guys waste no time, starting off with complicated topic of currencies. Jeremy takes issue with the currency-stance belonging to some former, unnamed Meb Faber Show guests. Specifically, he challenges the idea that currency hedging is expensive. Not true, he says. It’s only “selectively” expensive. You can actually get paid to hedge certain currencies. He gives us more details, leading to his overall takeaway: You should be hedged a lot more than you are. Meb then asks about any rules that might be applied when using a dynamic currency-hedging strategy. Jeremy gives us his thoughts, telling us when we want to be hedged versus when we don’t, as well as two good signals to use – interest rate differentials and momentum. Where are we overall today? Well, Jeremy says that there is no country so cheap that his shop would take their hedge ratio to zero. Eventually, Meb switches the topic to factor investing. Jeremy gives us his take, noting that minimum vol is where things are most expensive. The guys then discuss factor investing as it pertains to the bond space – in essence, moving away from market cap weightings. Why is that important for bond investing? Well, do you want to give the most weight to the countries issuing the most debt? Unlikely, but that’s how market cap weighting works with bonds. Next, Meb steers the conversation toward liquid alts, specifically managed futures. That’s followed by a great discussion on corporate buybacks. Gotta watch out for that dilution from new share issuance. Interestingly, it turns out that buybacks are largely a U.S. phenomenon. Jeremy agrees, but points out some spots around the globe where that might be changing. As we near the end of the show, Meb asks about the opportunities Jeremy sees going forward. His response in a nutshell? “People are underinvested overseas.” There’s plenty more, including an asset class that is coming up on being down a whopping six years in a row, as well as how Meb hacked a VPN service that enabled him to watch the last Super Bowl from a tiny village in Japan. How’d he do it? Find out in Episode 26.
10/26/2016 • 52 minutes, 23 seconds
#25 - Listener Q&A Episode
We have some great guests lined up in the coming weeks, so we figured we’d squeeze in another Q&A episode. This week, Meb is back from traveling yet again, this time to The Caymans. The show starts with Meb giving us highlights from the trip, as well as one low-light (waking up one morning to find a welt on his head, and hoping it isn’t Zika). This transitions into a topic recently covered in one of Meb’s blog posts; of all the animals that people find most terrifying, lions and sharks are near the top of the list. But statistically, lions and sharks are responsible for only a tiny amount of human deaths per year. You know what kills 725,000 humans per year – yet few fear (until recently)? Mosquitos. Similarly, many investors are terrified about the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. But this election isn’t likely to “kill” a portfolio. On the other hand, you know what is? The mosquito known as “fees.” Eventually, the conversation gravitates toward listener questions. A few you’ll hear Meb tackle are:
- What are some of the best ways and resources to learn about markets and investing?
- (Dovetails into…) Why don’t we hear Meb discuss single-stock fundamental analysis more often?
- What does the typical day look like for Meb and other successful investment professionals? Habits? Amount of reading? How much sleep? And so on…
- How does an investor tell the difference between an investment strategy that’s simply “out of favor” (and therefore, underperforming) versus a strategy that has truly lost its effectiveness (and underperforming)?
- One of the variables in Bogle’s formula for estimating returns is dividend yield. Why wouldn’t you substitute shareholder yield instead?
- What are the pros/cons of protecting the downside by buying puts versus using trend following?
- Assuming an investor is a huge risk taker and can handle it, should he put all his money in the asset class with the highest expected return – for instance, be “all in” Russia?
As usual, there’s lots more, including Meb’s upcoming travel schedule. He’s going to be in Orange County, New York, Richmond, and D.C., so drop him a line if you’ll be in the areas. All this and far more in Episode 25.
10/19/2016 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 39 seconds
#24 - Learning to Love Investment Bubbles
Episode 24 brings us back to our most controversial episode format: the “solo Meb” show. Listeners seem to either love and loathe this style of show. If you fall into the “loathe” camp, it’s a short episode so the pain is limited. But hopefully you will listen, as Meb dives into the fascinating, and possibly timely, subject of bubbles. The quick takeaway? Using a trend following approach would have helped you reduce drawdowns as popping market bubbles ravaged portfolios. And this would have helped you achieve investing’s main goal: surviving another day. Meb then dives in, first defining bubbles, then referencing three of the most famous bubbles in history: the South Sea Company bubble, the Mississippi bubble, and the Dutch tulip mania, each of which saw drawdowns of 90%. Meb dives deeper into the South Sea Company bubble. In short, the South Sea Company was a huge pump-and-dump scheme – catching none other than Sir Isaac Newton in its carnage. From here, Meb discusses strategies for capturing the upside of bubbles while protecting yourself from the fallout. One solution? Trend following, using the 10-month simple moving average. It does a great job of reducing volatility and drawdowns, and improving returns. Meb ends the show by revisiting the South Sea Company bubble, this time putting an actual figure on Newton’s losses, and comparing them to what a trend follower would have made. What’s the difference? Find out in Episode 24.
10/12/2016 • 21 minutes, 57 seconds
#23 - Gregg Fisher - "Sometimes the Best Investment Strategy Isn't the Right Investment Strategy"
If you’re a factor-investor, Episode 23 is for you. In fact, about 10 years ago, Gregg actually trademarked the term “multi-factor” in the use of mutual funds. Meb asks Greg which factors they use. It turns out “price-to-anything” isn’t bad. The conversation gravitates toward the behavioral side of investing, leading Gregg to an interesting comment: “Sometimes the best investment strategy isn’t the right investment strategy.” He goes on to illustrate by saying how if we bought nothing but small cap value stocks and held them for the next 50 years, we’d look back and realize that such a strategy would have been one of the most successful ones anyone could have chosen. The problem is the volatility of that strategy is off the charts, so most investors can’t see it through. In many ways, the experience of investing is as important to us as the outcome. Meb agrees, referencing a recent article detailing how Harvard’s endowment has posted a small loss over the last two years and some folks at Harvard are finding this totally unacceptable. But that’s to be expected with factor investing. As Gregg says, the whole concept of factor investing is to be different than the average investor. Next, Meb asks how to put together value and momentum. Turns out, there are lots of ways to slice this. Greg tells us to start with diversification, then differentiate across risk factors, tilting toward those factors that are well-rewarded for taking the risk. The guys then touch on factor investing in real estate, followed by top-down investing (Gregg doesn’t really adhere to top-down), then they move on to losses. We all know this intuitively, but huge losses can scar people – even to the point they never come back. So one of the keys to avoiding this is diversification. This bleeds into the topic of written investment plans. Gregg agrees that nearly no one has a written plan (though it would be great if they did). There’s far more, including currency hedging and smart beta factors. The episode winds down as Meb asks what advice Gregg might have for young investors who have only been exposed to the past 7 years of bull market. What’s Greg’s answer? Find out on Episode 23.
10/5/2016 • 53 minutes, 21 seconds
#22 - Listener Q&A Episode
Episode #22 is another “Listener Q&A” episode. Meb has been traveling again, this time giving several speeches. So we start the episode with Meb giving us the highlights from his most recent talk in Vegas, in which he details four mistakes that investors are making right now. Next, we get into our listener Q&A. Meb tackles:
- Is shareholder yield a smart beta factor in its own right, or is it a combination of factors?
- Should a shareholder yield strategy outperform portfolios with size, value, and momentum tilts?
- Is there a reason why Meb rarely talks about adding small caps to a portfolio?
- What are the merits of investing in ETFs versus bonds directly?
- Can sentiment indicators be used to add tangible long-term value to a portfolio?
- How does Meb define risk, a term he uses quite often?
- While certain global countries with low CAPEs appear attractive, if the U.S. entered a correction, wouldn’t those foreign countries follow, negating the decision to invest there?
There’s plenty more, including talk of gambling in Vegas (and counting cards), Meb’s high school reunion, and some of the worst investment losses Meb ever suffered (think “biotech” and “options”). Hear it all in Episode 22.
9/28/2016 • 1 hour, 34 seconds
#21 - Michael Covel - "We Can't Make a Prediction Worth a Damn"
Episode 21 starts with a “thank you” to Michael, as it was his advice on starting a podcast that got “The Meb Faber Show” off the ground. But Michael and Meb quickly turn to Michael’s expertise, trend following. This is how Michael summarizes it: “We don’t know what’s going to happen. We can’t make a prediction worth a damn. The market starts to move, whatever that market might be. We get on board, and we don’t get out until it goes against us and we have an exit signal.” They then turn to the infamous “turtle” story. It involves Richard Dennis, a great trader from the 1970’s, who made his first million by about age 25. By the early 80’s, he was worth about $200 million. Around this time, the movie “Trading Places” came out (two millionaires make a bet on the outcome of training a bum to be a financial whiz, while taking a financial whiz and, effectively, turning him into a bum). Richard felt he could similarly train a financial no-nothing, turning him into a great trader. Richard’s partner felt it wouldn’t work. So they made a bet. How’d it turn out? Three or four years later, the group Richard trained had made, on aggregate, around $100 million. Meb then suggests that a profitable strategy such as trend following, that seems to work, should attract lots of investor dollars in the long run. So why then doesn’t trend following have more “big money” institutional investors using it? Michael points toward drawdowns – “the scarlet letter of trend following” – even though buy-and-hold has plenty of drawdowns too. The guys then agree that all investing is purely speculation. We like to believe there’s more certainty, but that’s not the case. They then bring up a quote from Ed Seykota: “Win or lose, everyone gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.” Michael tells us this is true not only for investing, but life as well. Next, Meb asks about Michael’s podcast, which results in a great recap of how Michael got started and how he grew it to be the success it is today. The guys then discuss the mass of great investing content out there, for example, the hours of great interviews from Michael’s podcast—where is a new listener supposed to start? It’s overwhelming. Michael gives us his thoughts. This leads to Meb’s latest entrepreneurial business idea (which some listener should run with and make lots of money). There’s plenty more, including the guys touching on sensory deprivation, yoga/meditation, and of course, what each of them find beautiful, useful, or downright magical – Michael has about seven for us. What are they? Find out in Episode 21.
9/21/2016 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 57 seconds
#20 - Listener Q&A Episode
Episode #20 is another “Listener Q&A” episode. Meb starts by telling us about his frustration after doing a guest panel on CNBC earlier in the morning. (Hint: questions about The Fed tend to annoy Meb…also, if you ever chat with him in person, do not refer to a 1% market move as a “major” move.) But soon we change gears, and Meb answers questions including:
- When following a trend strategy based on a 100 or 200-day moving average, is the idea to buy/sell on Day 1 of the broken trend? Or is it more nuanced?
- Is there some magic number of days (when following a trend strategy) that is the right length?
- (The above questions dovetail into a conversation about the #1 mistake the majority of investors make when using a trend following approach – expecting it to be a return-enhancing strategy.)
- What are good trend strategies for sideways/chainsaw markets?
- How about combining a momentum strategy with a simple 10-month trend strategy?
- When looking at managed future funds, aside from cost, any thoughts on what might warrant choosing one fund over another?
- (This dovetails into an interesting admonition from Meb in which he suggests listeners should do their own homework on issues like this—after all, if you don’t fully understand a fund’s strategy and have your own reasons for buying it, how will you know whether a 20% drawdown reflects a bad strategy, bad execution, or just bad luck?)
- Can you earn a 10% CAGR with Dalio’s All Weather portfolio without fear of a major drawdown?
- (This dovetails into a question about asset allocation – does it really dominate long-term returns? A listener thought he heard a difference of opinion between Meb and a guest on a past episode.)
There are more questions, including one hand-written and mailed to Meb by a college student. He wants to know what qualities, skills, and abilities Meb looks for in new hires at Cambria, as well as what unique skills a college grad should bring to his/her employer. What’s Meb’s answer? Find out in Episode 20.
9/14/2016 • 40 minutes, 14 seconds
#19 - Jonathan Clements - "If Money Can Buy Happiness, Then Why Doesn't It?" "Because People Don't Spend It Right."
Episode 19 is a fun, unique episode, delving into the connection between “more money” and “more happiness.” Turns out, Jonathan has literally written the book on this complex relationship. Do you know what studies suggest is the “line in the sand” for annual income, separating happy and unhappy people? Good chance it’s lower than you think. But why? Jonathan tells us. That dovetails into a discussion about how people should spend their money in order to optimize their happiness. It turns out that spending our money on “experiences” with important people in our lives produces far more intrinsic happiness than money spent on “things.” Next, Meb leads the discussion into familiar territory – investing. Jonathan notes two major traps most of us fall into when investing: 1) overconfidence, and 2) loss aversion. These two Achilles Heels tend to inflict significant damage to our portfolios. So what’s our best defense? Jonathan gives us his three-pronged strategy. The topic then moves to portfolio construction, with Jonathan noting how his own approach has changed from a U.S.-centric, core-holding starting point to a global-market-portfolio starting point. Next, they move to a topic less discussed on the podcast: retirement. Jonathan gives his thoughts on withdrawal rates, portfolio management strategies in retirement, and even timing suggestions on when to start taking Social Security. There’s far more on the show, including what studies say about the effect of kids on happiness, why we need to flip our advice to our children (instead of “pursue your passions early in life” it should be “work your butt off early and save, so you can pursue your passions later”), and finally, specific action steps you can take right now to be a better investor. What are they? Find out in Episode 19.
9/9/2016 • 52 minutes, 24 seconds
#18 - Rob Arnott - "People Need to Ratchet Down Their Return Expectations"
Episode 18 is packed with value. It starts with Meb asking Rob to talk about market cap weighting and its drawbacks. Rob tells us that with market cap weighting, investors are choosing “popularity” as an investment criterion more so than some factor that’s actually tied to the company’s financial health. What’s a better way? Rob suggests evaluating companies based on how big they are instead (if you’re scratching your head, thinking “size” is the same as “market cap,” this is the episode for you). Is this method really better? Well, Rob tells us it beats market cap weighting by 1-2% compounded. Then Rob gives us an example of just how destructive market cap weighting can be: Look at the #1 company in any sector, industry, or country – you name it – by market cap. Ostensibly, these are the best, most dominant companies in the market. What if you invest only in these market leaders, these #1 market cappers, rotating your dollars into whatever company is #1? How would that strategy perform? You would do 5% per year compounded worse than the stock market. Now slightly tweak that strategy. What if you invest only in the #1 market cap company in the world, rebalancing each year into the then-#1 stock? You’d underperform by 11% per annum. Meb then moves the discussion to “smart beta.” Why is Rob a fan? Simple – it breaks the link with stock price (market cap), enabling investors to weight their portfolios by something other than “what’s popular.” But as Rob tells us, there are lots of questionable ideas out there masquerading as smart beta. The guys then dive into valuing smart beta factors. Just because something might qualify as smart beta, it doesn’t mean it’s a good strategy if it’s an expensive factor. Next, Rob and Meb turn their attention to the return environment, with Rob telling us “People need to ratchet down their return expectations.” All of these investors and institutions expecting 8-10% a year? Forget about it. So what’s an investor to do? Rob has some suggestions, one of which is looking global. He’s not the perma-bear people often accuse him of being. In fact, he sees some attractive opportunities overseas. Next, Meb asks Rob about the idea of “over-rebalancing.” You’ll want to listen to this discussion as Rob tells us this is a way to amp up your returns to the tune of about 2% per year. Next up? Correlation, starting with the quote “The only thing that goes up in a market crash is correlation.” While it may seem this way, Rob tells us that we should be looking at “correlation over time” instead. Through this lens, if an asset class that normally marches to its own drummer crashes along with everything else in a major drawdown, you could interpret it more as a “sympathy” crash – selling off when it shouldn’t; and that makes it a bargain. Does this work? It did for Rob back around ’08/’09. He gives us the details. There’s way more, including viewing your portfolio in terms of long-term spending power rather than NAV, the #1 role of a client advisor, and even several questions for Rob written in by podcast listeners. What are they? Listen to Episode #18 to find out.
9/7/2016 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 15 seconds
#17 - Michael Philbrick, Adam Butler, and Rodrigo Gordillo - It's About Risk Allocation, Not Capital Allocation
Episode 17 starts with the guys from ReSolve discussing how they view asset allocation and top-down investing. They start with the global market portfolio which is the aggregate of what every investor in the world owns, yet interestingly, nearly no individual investor allocates this way. They then adjust the global market portfolio by striving for balance, specifically, risk parity. They discuss how leverage enables an investor to scale risk and target a specific volatility level, therein equalizing the portfolio. Risk parity gets you to start thinking about risk allocation instead of capital allocation. And this is helpful as “you’ve always got something killing it in your portfolio…and always got something killing you.” The topic then moves to valuation. The guys from ReSolve tell us how they see today’s market—near the peak of a cycle and expensive relative to history. What does this mean for returns over the next 10-20 years? They think 1-2% real. This leads to a discussion about the Permanent Portfolio and its pros and cons in various markets. Then Meb doesn’t miss the chance to bring up gold, as he suggests Canadians love their natural resources (ReSolve is based in Canada). Next, Meb asks the guys their thoughts on currencies. Here in the U.S., it’s rare that we factor currencies into our investing decisions, but it can be more of an issue for many non-U.S. investors. The conversation circles back to risk parity, this time in the context of bonds, and where yields might be going over the next 5-10 years. There’s plenty more, including managed futures, assorted risk premia, and an announcement from the ReSolve guys about a new service offering. What is it? Listen to episode #17 to find out.
8/31/2016 • 1 hour, 3 seconds
Special Announcement
Big news today! This isn't our usual podcast. Instead, Meb has an announcement for his listeners. It's only a few minutes long, so don't miss this one!
8/29/2016 • 15 minutes, 56 seconds
#16 - Listener Q&A Episode
Episode #16 is another “Listener Q&A” episode. With Jeff asking follow-ups, here are a few of the questions Meb tackles:
- Given low bond yields, what asset would you suggest holding in a trend following strategy while in “cash”? Would you stick to short-term bonds, diversify with several bond funds, or actually hold cash?
- I struggle with a way to screen for quality. I just listened to your podcast with Pete Mladina and he alluded to profitability as a factor. Have you done any work here?
- Do you believe that the development of smart beta (momentum, value, low vol…) will kill the edge of these factors?
- It’s difficult to distinguish signal from noise when evaluating different indicators, such as forward PE versus TTM PE. What suggestions do you have for evaluating the myriad indicators out there?
- I just came into a lump sum of money. Is there any research on the best way to invest it into a pricey market? All at once? Average in? Buy on the pull-backs?
- Should your primary residence count toward your asset allocation and portfolio?
- What do you mean by rebalancing taxable accounts by cash flows?
There are many more questions that touch upon topics including currency exposure, tweaks to shareholder yield, and the effects of hefty fees. All this and more in Episode 16.
8/24/2016 • 54 minutes, 4 seconds
#15 - The Trinity Portfolio
Meb tries something new in Episode 15. In “audio book” style, he walks listeners through his latest research piece: The Trinity Portfolio. “Trinity” reflects the three pillars of this investing approach: globally-diversified assets, weightings toward value and momentum investments, and active trend-following. On one hand, Trinity is broad and sturdy, rooted in respected, wealth-building investment principles. On the other hand, it’s strategic and intuitive, able to adapt to all sorts of market conditions. The result is a unified, complementary framework that can relieve investors of the handwringing and anxiety of “what’s the right strategy right now?” If you’re an investor who’s struggled to find an investing framework able to generate long-term returns that make a real difference in your wealth, Episode 15 is for you.
8/19/2016 • 43 minutes, 38 seconds
#14 - Eric Crittenden - "It's Not Fear and Greed that Drives the Investment World; It's Envy"
Episode 14 is easily one of our most interesting so far. While there’s great content about trend following, Eric and Meb also delve into the psychological side of investing. There’s a fascinating tension between what people say they want from investing, versus what they actually do. For instance, investors say that want diversification, but very few, in practice, are willing to implement a truly diversified portfolio. Why? The psychological trauma that people experience when they diversify (and watch parts of their portfolio draw down) is simply too painful. This leads into a discussion about one of Eric and Meb’s favorite ways to diversify a portfolio: managed futures. The numbers suggest managed futures are a fantastic addition to a portfolio. Eric ran an experiment with his clients involving portfolio construction. He presented clients the returns and volatility numbers of a handful of asset classes – without revealing what those asset classes were. 100% of the time, when presented blind, people chose managed futures as their core holding. Eric and Meb then move on to the returns of great fund managers like Buffett and Soros. Eric studied these managers with the thesis that they must have done something other investors are uncomfortable doing (which is the source of their long-term alpha). He concludes that this differentiator is actually “underperforming their benchmark.” Eric says Berkshire Hathaway is a “glaring” example. An investor in Berkshire would have underperformed the S&P more than half the time (over various time-periods), but would have made tremendously more money than investing in the S&P. This leads Eric and Meb back to the psychological side of investing, specifically, the pain of relative performance. Meb recalls the Buffett or Munger idea that it’s not greed and fear that drives the investment world; it’s envy. Meb then turns the focus toward playing defense, which leads Eric to tell us how few people realize the impact on their returns of avoiding drawdowns. Avoiding the big losers has more impact on your compounded returns than catching the big winners. In other words, defense is what wins championships. There’s far more: how 80% of all stocks effectively return 0%, while just 20% of stocks account for all market gains… a pointed warning from Meb to listeners about the fees associated with managed future “fund of funds”… and of course, plenty more on Eric’s trend following approach. All of this and more in Episode #14.
8/17/2016 • 55 minutes, 41 seconds
#13 - Want Buffett’s Returns? Here’s How to Get Them
Stock picking is hard—really hard. Fortunately, there’s a simple strategy you could begin following today to improve your success. It’s simple to implement, takes just minutes of your time, yet has the potential to vastly improve your investing results. Sadly, if you’re like the average investor, you don’t even know it exists. So what is it? Well, consider the world’s star hedge fund managers – the Buffetts, Klarmans, and Teppers – the guys with average yearly returns in the upper teens and twenties. What if you knew what they were investing in right this second? Logic would suggest if you invested alongside them, you too could post their extraordinary returns. Well, it turns out, the option is available to you thanks to the SEC and Form 13F. This is a form professional fund managers with more than $100m in U.S.-listed assets must fill out. Best of all, it’s available to the public, providing you and me a way to “peek over the shoulder” of some of the world’s most successful investors. Of course, there are some issues with this strategy. For instance, there’s a 45-delay in reporting, there can be inexact holdings, and the biggest one – the fluctuating success of your chosen manager. Bill Ackman’s recent debacle with Valeant certainly comes to mind. No, it’s not easy; a 13F investing strategy takes dedication. Many of the star managers who post amazing long-term returns can actually underperform for years at a time. Would you stay invested alongside them long enough to ride out those barren stretches? Or would fear and second-guessing shake you out? Turns out there are a few ways you can improve your chance of success. Find out what they are in Episode 13.
If you’re a dividend investor, Episode 12 is for you. Yes, historical market data tells us that dividend stocks outperform the broad market. But that’s where too many investors stop. That same historical market data suggests we can improve our dividend-strategy returns—significantly—by a few tweaks. What are they? Well, paying dividends is just one of several ways that corporate managers can return profits to shareholders. They can also buy back stock and pay down debt (a subtler form, but valuable nonetheless). Together, we call these three returns “shareholder yield.” Shareholder yield provides investors a more holistic perspective on the degree to which corporate managers are sharing profits with investors. So when an investor limits his or her analysis simply to dividends, he/she runs the risk of overlooking companies that might be returning major profits to shareholders—but in less visible ways than dividends. That’s a problem because it turns out, when we combine these three yields, this “shareholder yield” strategy has posted better historical returns than dividends alone. How much better? Find out in Episode 12.
8/10/2016 • 37 minutes, 23 seconds
#11 – Sam Stovall – Sam’s Seven Rules of Wall Street: Crash-Tested Investment Strategies That Beat the Market
Episode 11 features the always-fun Sam Stovall. Sam starts by making an unlikely connection between Clint Eastwood and investing – “A man’s got to know his limits.” Being aware of his own limits, Sam put together a list of rules to help him win at the game of investing. He and Meb dive in, starting with “Let your winners ride, cut your losers short.” Easier said than done, as most of us tend to hold onto our losers, hoping they’ll come back, while selling the winners (prematurely) to lock in gains. “As January goes, so goes the year” is Rule #2. Sam compares investors to dieters looking for a fresh start every year. Rule #3 is a tweak on “Sell in May then go away.” It turns out that’s almost right, but not quite. The better strategy is “rotate rather than retreat.” Do you know the two sectors which historically will boost your returns if you’ll rotate into them during the summer months? Sam will tell you. Rule #4 challenges the idea that there’s no free lunch on Wall Street. According to Sam, there is. If you construct your portfolio in the right way, you can increase your returns without a commensurate increase in risk. “Don’t get mad, get even” is Sam’s fifth rule. Too many investors are losing money because their portfolios are overweight in a few bad picks. So don’t get mad, “get even.” In other words, look to shift your weightings to correct the imbalance. Rule #6? “Don’t fight the Fed, at least, for too long.” For all you bears over the last few years, this seems especially appropriate. Finally, #7 is Meb’s favorite: “There’s always a bull market someplace.” It turns out Sam and Meb share a fondness for rules-based investing. Sam has his own rules which help him identify these bull markets that are always happening someplace. What are they? Find out in Episode #11.
8/8/2016 • 41 minutes, 12 seconds
#10 - Listener Q&A Episode
Episode #10 is our second “Listener Q&A” episode. This time, instead of spending the entire episode answering one question, Meb tackles many. Here’s a sample of a few of the topics you’ll hear him address:
- How should young investors balance low expected returns (ZIRP, U.S. CAPE, etc) with the need to invest young/early?
- How much should you allocate to your best idea or opportunity? You hear Charlie Munger talk about betting big on great opportunities. What is “big”?
- I get the gist of your global asset allocation strategy, but I’m not an expert on it. Does my lack of knowledge make it dangerous for me to invest this way since I don’t fully understand it? (As opposed to Peter Lynch’s mindset of “buy what you know.”)
- What does your (Meb’s) ideal portfolio look like right now?
- I’ve stayed away from low volume/liquidity ETFs I would like to own because volume is basically non-existent. Is that fear unfounded?
There are many more questions and answers, which dovetail into different topics including Meb’s thoughts on investing in private businesses, as well as several new business ideas which Meb would love to see an entrepreneur tackle. What are they? Find out on Episode 10.
8/3/2016 • 46 minutes, 43 seconds
#9 - Pete Mladina - "What You Thought Was Skill Was Just Risk Premia"
“Do I have enough to fund my retirement?” “What’s the optimal lifetime asset allocation?” Those two questions, stemming from a recent academic paper written by Pete, help launch Episode 9. The answers point toward Pete’s solution for retirement challenges, something called “goals-based” asset allocations (as opposed a singular, static “all-in,” asset allocation applied to your entire capital base). In other words, your specific goal – say, college tuition, a second home, maybe a trust – dictates the asset allocation of the associated, earmarked funds. From there, Meb and Pete transition to a discussion on factor-based investing, starting with “term” and “market” factors. According to Pete, “Ninety-five, ninety-six percent of the return variation of all managers and funds in the Morningstar database are explained by…basic factors.” Meb then asks, “What are the best diversifiers to a traditional portfolio?” Hint: Pete’s response includes Meb’s “desert island” strategy. They then discuss whether individual smart beta factors such as “value” should be evaluated relative to their own historical valuation. Your own answer will likely reflect whether or not you believe markets are mean-reverting, a topic often debated. They then touch upon risk factors as applied to REITs before diving into a discussion of the Yale Endowment allocation. Pete tells us that Yale’s outperformance over the decades really boils down to just one thing: exposure to venture capital. The rest could be replicated in a factor-tilted portfolio. They wrap up with a reader question: “How do you know when your strategy no longer works?” Find out Meb’s and Pete’s answers in Episode #9.
7/28/2016 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 11 seconds
#8 – Starved for Yield? Time to Go Global
Episode #8 marks Meb’s first “listener feedback” episode. We’ve received numerous bond-related questions from listeners, but they all tend to reduce to something along the lines of: “Bonds are hovering around historically low yields. Where do they fit in a diversified portfolio today?” Meb tackles the question, discussing Treasuries first, then expanding to global sovereign bonds – which, by the way, is the largest asset class in the world. In fact, a market cap weighting would suggest you have about one-third of your portfolio in global bonds. Instead, the average U.S. investor has around 0%. This leads to a discussion about using a value screen to help identify attractive global sovereign debt opportunities. Turns out you could be invested in a basket generating about 7% right now. Of course, you’d be investing in countries like Brazil, Russia, India, Turkey, Mexico... Could you do that? If you’re a yield-starved investor, it might be time to consider the question more seriously as U.S. bond yields may not climb to meaningful levels for quite a while. So as to U.S. bonds, will yields keep dropping? Or is it time to get out? Find out Meb’s thoughts in Episode #8.
7/21/2016 • 31 minutes, 31 seconds
# 7 – Playing Defense Against Black Swans
With Brexit rattling the markets recently, it’s a good time to revisit the discussion of “black swans” (not that Brexit was a black swan, despite catching many investors off-guard). So what exactly is an investing black swan? And is there anything you can do to protect yourself from one? That leads Meb into a discussion of outliers – specifically, how your returns would look if you missed out on the 10 best market days, but also avoided the 10 worst market days. From there, we discuss a way to help protect your wealth from the biggest drawdown-days in the market. (Hint – it’s how Paul Tudor Jones avoided the ’87 crash, and something you can easily implement in your own account today.) From there we move to actionable takeaways for listeners – after an extended down-period, what markets and/or countries might be cheap and starting to enjoy an uptrend, which would make them good investments right now? And finally, you’ll hear how Meb just lost his entire Kansas wheat crop, destroyed by a fire from an exploded combine. Black swan event? Find out on Episode #7.
7/14/2016 • 30 minutes, 55 seconds
# 6 - Three Concepts That Investors Get Wrong
Do you know which three concepts most investors – retail and professional alike – get wrong? One is asset allocation; two is a bit different – it’s actually a lack of awareness of a type of investment that actually pays you to own it (confused?); third is a misconception about dividends and dividend stocks. Diving in, when it comes to asset allocation, different institutions and money managers often suggest significantly different asset allocations. So which allocation is the most effective? Turns out that’s the wrong question. There’s a far more important issue lurking here. Meb will tell you what it is. Next, we move on to a discussion few investors know about. It involves a way to be paid to own a fund. Interested? Finally, Meb risks alienating more than a handful of listeners by presenting an unorthodox perspective on dividend investing. But if you’re a dividend investor, you need to hear what he’s saying. Turns out there’s a tweak on a traditional dividend strategy that produced significantly better results when back-tested. Learn what this tweak is, and far more, on Episode 6 of The Meb Faber Show.
7/7/2016 • 28 minutes, 57 seconds
#5 - Jared Dillian - “If You Think 2016 is the Opposite of 1981, then You Should Do the Opposite”
Meb starts by asking Jared to discuss a point from one of Jared’s newsletters: “If you think 2016 is the opposite of 1981, then you should do the opposite. In 1981, you should have bought stocks, sold gold, and bought bonds…” Jared gives us his thoughts, discussing how the landscape is far different now than in ’81, from heightened regulations to left-leaning policies. How should your portfolio respond? This dovetails into Meb and Jared discussing their “desert island” strategies (what would you invest in if you were about to be stuck on a desert island for 10 years). Then we hop to the Fed… Jared has a great quote “The Fed will pursue the path of least embarrassment.” He goes on to say how the fear of being embarrassed is the primary thing driving all the Fed’s decisions. What does this mean for their future decisions? They then switch gears, discussing a specific market bubble happening right now (it’s up 37% year-over-year). The problem is it’s going to pop – with “big implications for the global economy.” What is it? Find out on Episode #5.
6/27/2016 • 42 minutes, 37 seconds
#4 - Wes Gray - “Even God Would Get Fired as an Active Investor”
What if you had perfect foresight and knew ahead of time which stocks would be the best performers? The reality is even if you knew this and invested accordingly, you’d still suffer gut-wrenching drawdowns along the way so painful (around 75%) that “even God would get fired as an active investor” if he was managing other peoples’ money. That’s the result of one of Wes’s studies which he and Meb discuss. By the way, with perfect foresight, you’d do about 28% a year, so what does that mean for those investment groups that want your business, claiming they do 35% or so a year? Then Wes says it’s not about volatility – it’s about protection against tail risk. That leads into a discussion on one of Meb’s favorite topics, managed futures, “one of the best diversifiers to a traditional portfolio.” There’s talk of Wes’s roboadvisor, timing factors, and Wes’s secret to getting the best prices on Amazon. All this and more on Episode #4.
6/27/2016 • 46 minutes, 37 seconds
#3 - Where Are the Best Global Values Right Now?
Is right now a good time to be in U.S. stocks? What about global stocks? Well, the answer in large part depends on the specific market’s valuation. Start investing in an overpriced market and your returns will likely be small. Start in a cheap market, and it’s more likely you’ll enjoy outperformance. So where are we today? And what does it mean for where you should be invested? Meb tells us in this episode, pointing out the most expensive and cheapest markets around the globe. He also asks “What percentage of your stock allocation is in the United States?” Want to know the average answer Meb gets when he asks that question to professional money managers? The answer will surprise you. Find out what it is on podcast #3.
6/27/2016 • 59 minutes, 41 seconds
#2 - Patrick O’Shaughnessy - An Unexpected Drop-in from Patrick O’Shaughnessy
Meb and Patrick cover lots of ground in this fun episode. They discuss stocks not to own right now, Meb’s worst market loss of all time, and Patrick’s career advice in response to listener Q&A. They then get a laugh reading aloud the worst book reviews that each has received on their respective investing books (posted anonymously on Amazon). There’s far more, including discussion on stock buybacks, roboadvisors, value versus growth investing, some microbrew tasting, and even how Meb once cheated his own grandmother.
6/27/2016 • 1 hour, 29 minutes, 13 seconds
#1 - Global Asset Allocation - Investing 101
On this first-ever podcast, Meb provides listeners with a bit about himself and answers the question “What in the world am I doing starting a podcast?” (After all, he is a self-professed former “glorified ski bum.”) He then discusses a broad investing framework – a global asset allocation model – that serves as a helpful starting point for the shows to come. Next, Meb discusses the portfolio returns of a handful of the smartest, most respected fund managers in the world today. Which portfolio allocation has performed the best over the last several decades? The answer is going to surprise you. And while we’re asking questions, why did Charlie Munger (Warren Buffett’s business partner) say “the investment-management business in insane?” That answer, and far more, on Episode 1 of The Meb Faber Show.