In today’s episode Charu Chanana, macro expert and Head of FX strategy. After a week with a very high focus on the Nvidia earnings report, markets may move to focus more on macro figures with one of this week's most important ones being the American PCE. Depending on how it comes out, this may inform Fed's approach to rate policy. She also gives an update on last week's positive performance in China and presents what forex to watch. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

In this special episode of the Saxo Market Call podcast, Peter Garnry, Head of SaxoStrats and Equity Strategy and John J. Hardy, former podcast host and US politics expert, dive into the turbulent seas of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election and its potential impact on the financial markets. Their discussion revolves around key points are relevant for investors and traders alike to get a better understanding of the effects of what promises to be a highly contentious electoral battle on global economic dynamics.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo. This podcast episode was recorded on February 14, 2024.

Nvidia's earnings report is the most important event for market sentiment in this week. Expectations are sky high, but past performance has also been remarkable. But the further you go up, the further you risk falling. In today's equity focused episode, Peter Garnry is the expert and he discusses the expectations of Nvidia's earnings and take the temperature of the boom in AI stocks and their expected growth over the past few years. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

In today’s episode Charu Chanana, macro expert and Head of FX strategy. She discusses how the debate about the US economy has gone from expecting recession to now looking at a so-called “no-landing” scenario. She also touches on the US dollar, US equities as well as Chinese and Japanese performance. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

In today’s episode, Althea Spinozzi, Head of fixed income strategy, is the expert. She presents a status of the US and EU bond markets so far in 2024. She then presents what the current development may mean for fixed income in the coming quarter before discussing what that may mean in terms of diversification and positioning. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

In this episode, Head of equity strategy, Peter Garnry looks back at an action-packed earnings week and concludes the general vibe of it. Looking ahead to the coming week, there will be less earnings, but a host of important macro figures especially from the US, which are bound to come back in to investors' focus as they judge if we are heading for recession, when rate cuts are happening and whether we will have a soft landing. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

This week's thematic podcast episode is all about metals. Ole S. Hansen, Head of commodity strategy, is the expert. He talks about the idea that 2024 could be the year of metals - especially gold, silver and copper are in focus. He discusses their performance so far, why it may be their year and how curious people can be invested in the sub-asset class. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

With Charu Chanana in the studio, we leave the earnings season aside for a while and focus on the macro side of things.  We take a look at the US economy in the light of the very strong non-farm payroll report that came out Friday. We also discuss the Red Sea crisis and its implications for oil, freight rates and markets at large. Finally, we assess the financial situation in China and Australia. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

This week has been teeming with earnings and many of the US mastodons as well as Europe's largest company has reported. Therefore, Peter Garnry is once again in the studio to give us an overview of what has happened and what it means for investors and traders across the globe. It's earnings, earnings, earnings. This episode comes out a little bit later than usual, so we're able to catch the freshest earnings from the US region. We hope you still like it and look forward to listen in. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

This week is the biggest during this earnings season, as many of the US tech mastodons will report. Therefore, Peter Garnry is in the studio. Before touching on this exciting week, he and Søren Otto also discuss last week's earnings as well as the key figures that come out of the US. The two also talk about the Chinese real estate company Evergrande and the important central bank meetings that also takes places in the coming week.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Normalise

In this week's thematic episode, we're talking earnings season with Peter Garnry, Head of equity strategy. We talk about earnings seasons in general and what Garnry pays attention to when reading an earnings report. He also gives his view on some of the biggest reports this week and looks ahead to the coming week, where earnings will roll in. Finally, we talk about how investors can get going by integrating earnings seasons into their investment strategy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

In today's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Charu Chanana, Market Strategist and Head of FX strategy is the expert. Together with Søren Otto, she provides an overview of the financial status in important financial regions. First, she talks about the US and how a variety of factors may impact the timing and pacing of rate cutes by the FED (1.02). She also gives a brief overview of the European situation and how the ECB meeting this week may affect that (6.45), before a short status on the earnings season (9.49). Moving East, Chanana gives a brief take on China's challenges (11.30), before zeroing in on Japan and the BOJ's approach to interest rates (14.30). Finally, she considers how that may affect forex and Japanese equities (22.02). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.  

In the first episode of our thematic podcast, we zero in yield curve normalisation. The expert in the studio is Head of fixed income strategy, Althea Spinozzi. She talks about how the yield curve is bound to normalise and how that may look depending on whether we see a soft or hard landing - or what she refers to as a 70's landing. She also takes the temperature on both sovereign and corporate bonds to consider the risk and return pictures for the fixed income asset class. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

In today's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto and Ole S. Hansen discuss the conflicting CPI and PPI numbers that came out last week and their potential impact on the markets' expectations to rate cuts through the year (01.57). They then talk about the new SEC-approved Bitcoin ETFs (04.48) followed by a brief update on the Taiwan election (9.36). Friday, the banks kicked of the earnings season, which is only going to pick up pace over the next weeks (10.51). As Ole is our commodities expert, we take the temperature on different commodities, starting with gas (12.50), followed by our (15.55), grain (17.36). We end with a discussion about price conviction and what commodities look to have a tough year and which may increase in value in 2024. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

This is the first fixed-income episode of the year and we are talking about the negative start to the year with rising bond yields and one US rate cut almost being priced out already. We also talk about whether the US 10-year yield here at 4% is attractive and what the risks are and especially in the context of tomorrow's US inflation report. We also talk about our recently published quarterly outlook where we highlighted three scenarios in the economy and how these scenarios will impact the yield curve, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's episode we talk about Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls and how to read the report while looking ahead to this week's US macro figures across NFIB small business optimism index, initial jobless claims and the important inflation report on Thursday. We also talk about the USD rebound this year and whether momentum can continue and touches on levels in USDJPY and EURUSD. Finally, we touch on the weak sentiment in China and the big batch of Chinese macro data coming out before ending the week with a lot of tensions around the Taiwan election, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's episode we discuss the developments in the Middle East and how it is impacting crude oil, gold given the expected lower policy rate this year and inflation expectations generally trending down, and finally a perspective on the grains sector that had a terrible 2023, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In the first episode of the year we discuss what to expect in equities. We touch on different topics ranging from BYD overtaking Tesla as the largest EV maker in the world, earnings growth expectations and whether they are realistic, the AI hype and whether it can continue, what we like the most in developed market equities, thoughts on China and India, and whether we can expect a recession or not, with Søren Otto Simonsen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

This is the last macro episode before the holiday season. We talk about the upcoming macro figures this week and why they might matter less given the Fed pivot on policy rates. The USD weakening last week and we discuss whether the trend will continue into in the year. Finally, we focus on BoJ rate decision tomorrow with expectations looking for no change but markets are certain that BoJ will hint of maybe leaving negative interest rates behind at the January meeting, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In this episode we discuss what we have chosen to be the best outrageous prediction for 2024 sent to us by our clients at Saxo. The outrageous prediction is simply that government abandons the GDP measure as the yardstick for progress and how to steer the economy. Given that rising GDP has been the key policy objective by developed countries since the Great Depression this would truly be an outrageous prediction. We discuss this outrageous idea and the problems with GDP in a greater macroeconomic context, with Peter Garnry and Steen Jakobsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

This is likely the last podcast on fixed income this year so we take a look at the current situation with rate decisions this week from the Fed, ECB and BoE. We also go through the key events and performances across bonds in 2023 with high yield bonds and the Austrian 100-year bond being some of the biggest surprises. Finally, we talk about what to expect in bonds next year as the market has fixed its expectations on lower inflation and lower policy rates, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

This week is crucial for markets given the big moves last week across gold and JPY with Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday supporting the soft landing narrative. Tomorrow, the US inflation report will set the stage for the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and the key focus is still on services inflation. On Thursday, ECB and BoE will deliver rate decisions and Friday will end the week with key PMI figures across the Eurozone, UK and the US. Central banks will not keep rates so the market will focus on the details in the communication and it feels that markets are sensitive to changes in the narrative around monetary policy and inflation so this week could become more volatile than expected, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we discuss equity market performance across country indices and thematic baskets highlighting Nasdaq 100 as the big winner together with semiconductors and cyber security. We also talk about the equal weighted performance between US and European equities which has not been that bad after all for Europe. We also discuss the current policy rate cuts priced in markets and how for now they are viewed as a positive thing but that it could quickly change. Finally, we flag upcoming earnings releases the next week from Lululemon, Oracle, and Adobe, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Link to our publication -> Outrageous Predictions 2024: The end of the road It is the time of year when Saxo releases its Outrageous Predictions. For 2024 our Outrageous Predictions are titled The end of the road building on the idea, that the world is set for a very different journey than the calm environment post the pandemic with little geopolitical risks, stable technology backdrop, low inflation, and low interest rates. Three our outrageous predictions are 1) With oil at $150, Saudis buy the Champion League franchise, 2) generative AI deepfake triggers a national security crisis, and 3) Robert F. Kennedy Jr wins the 2024 US presidential election. In the podcast, we discuss all of our outrageous predictions, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Last week's backdrop was shaped by Fed Waller's comments about rate hikes had ended and the market got into overdrive mode on those comments and soft inflation figures repricing bond yields lower across the curve. This week will be interesting with key macro figures across JOTLS job opening ISM Services tomorrow and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. The USD also finally turned around last week and gold spot was also reacting forcefully to the lower bond yields. Finally, with RBA rate decision coming up in Asia session tonight, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Oil markets await the upcoming OPEC decision with the expectation to another production cut to bolster favourable conditions for oil markets. We also discuss the diverging performance across many commodities in November including coffee up 8% and US natural gas down 25% as the peak rate narrative sets in, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we reflect on the meteoric rise in the index weights of mega caps as a function of the generative AI hype this year pushing S&P 500 index concentration to the highest recorded since 1991. The cyber security is a super interesting industry for many reasons that we go through in addition to our reflections on CrowdStrike earnings. Finally, we discuss the wisdom of the now late Charlie Munger and the influence he had on Warren Buffett and some of his key opinions on investing and why he did not like the accounting metric EBITDA , with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we talk about government bond markets and whether market expectations are getting a bit ahead of themselves. Especially, the rally in UK Gilts market could be unsustainable given the underlying inflation and likely more fiscal stimulus next year. We also discuss yesterday's conflicting messages around ECB policy and the upcoming Eurozone CPIP report on Thursday. Finally, we discuss the US Treasury market that has rallied the most since August 2011 with the 10-year yield declining 60 bps, but the bigger question is whether the rally is sustainable, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

After last week's quiet backdrop due to the US Thanksgiving holiday this week will drum up more energy with important inflation reports from the US, Eurozone, and Australia which will be important for the direction of the USD that have found itself increasingly in negative momentum. China has had so many false starts this year and this week we will get another PMI report that will show whether the recent stimulus actions by the Chinese government is moving economic activity. Finally, we talk about the USDJPY which seems to have reached a top and this narrative could be bolstered on a weaker than expected USD inflation report, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we talk about the possibility of another Santa rally in gold and silver. The previous six years have had a strong December in those two precious metals - is the setup right again this year? The oil market is nervous with a tricky supply and demand situation with traders awaiting OPEC's next move. For all the weakness in China, Copper is still holding up pretty well and the recent moves from the Chinese government to support real estate developers and the economy could turn things around for copper. In addition, Chinese inventory of copper is at a rock-bottom low, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

We discuss four topics today. Nvidia's earnings were incredible strong blasting estimates but US export controls are upsetting and lowering the visibility of its Chinese business. The US economy is still expanding but slowing down while earnings estimates are coming down in Europe and S&P 500 (ex. technology sector) which are at odds with a rallying equity market. Across equity themes the green transformation baskets are still under pressure while nuclear power and commodities are doing well. Finally, we talk about batteries with both Chinese based CATL and Swedish based Northvolt expecting to list next year, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today's episode is about a concept called fiscal dominance which is when the fiscal policies begin to dominate the monetary policy. Under conditions of high debt levels and rising interest rates it can create a negative feedback loop in inflation and interest rates potentially leading to sustained negative real rates and fiscal repression. We also talk about yesterday's 20-year Treasury auction and how the market response might indicate that the market is pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

The USD continues to weaken with the market betting on a Fed pivot as inflation cooled more than expected last week and more indicators are suggesting the US economy is slowing down. We also cover FOMC Minutes, initial jobless claims, and Black Friday. In Europe, this week is going to be a key test of the turnaround narrative with fresh PMI figures and IFO survey, while we also keeping an eye on UK budget and Riksbank. Finally, in Asia FX traders should have a focus on RBA Minutes and the stabilisation/strengthening of the Chinese Yuan, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today’s commodities focused podcast we explain what has driven the sudden comeback for semi industrial metals, such as silver and platinum. The current negative momentum in crude oil carrying the risk of an overshoot to the downside ahead of the November 26 OPEC meeting. Finally a look at realized gross roll yields in commodities, which sectors are contributing the most and how returns compare with recent history. With Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we discuss yesterday's small positive surprise on US October inflation that sent bond and equities soaring with Nasdaq 100 on a trajectory to set a new closing high for the year. We also go through which equity themes responded the most positive to lower interest rates, and also the recent reading on the US consumer based on earnings results from Target and Home Depot. Finally, we go over recent earnings and the most important earnings to watch over the next week including the important Nvidia earnings next Tuesday, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we discuss options and how investors and traders can use them. We go through an example on getting long exposure to Novo Nordisk, alternative entry strategies selling in-the-money puts, creating recurring income from selling covered call options on stocks in the portfolio, zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) options, and finally how maybe not to use options around earnings releases, with Koen Hoorelbeke and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

While today's US inflation report will move markets and be important the longer term importance will come from inflation expectations which are all on the rise. In today's podcast we also talk about our views on bond yields given the market's pricing of the Fed Funds Rate a couple of years out and why we still like the barbell strategy. Finally, we discuss Moody's change of the US rating outlook from stable to negative over the weekend and why it matters for credit bonds from Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson , with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's episode we discuss the recent plunge in crude oil which is definitely not part of the OPEC+ plan, the correction in gold following a strong period for equities, and finally we talk about the roaring prices in soft commodities due to extreme weather patterns, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we discuss 1) battery electric vehicles deliveries in Q3 and how it relates to Brent crude being down 18% from its recent peak, 2) is a recession finally coming after great delay? and 3) the Adyen Investor Day tonight European time as an important event for the payments industry, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's episode we talk about corporate bonds in USD and EUR taking a look at the historically high bond yields and investment grade vs high-yield spread. We also take a look at performance across the different corporate bond segments and zoom in on some individual names such as Leonardo and 3M, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's podcast we discuss the weaker USD on the back of the big risk-on move across markets last week, and whether the lower long-end US bond yields in fact cancel out a bit of Powell's remarks last week. We also discuss Bank of Japan and JPY, China data this week and the lack of growth revive, and finally tomorrow RBA rate decision, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In this week's extended commodity focused podcast we welcome Nitesh Shah, head of commodities research at WisdomTree, Europe's largest commodity ETP provider. First we discuss the pros and cons of investing in commodity ETPs vs companies, and what to be aware of. We move on to having a broad discussion about the outlook for key commodities. Nitesh gives his view on China and why he is cautiously optimistic about the demand outlook. Also the green arms race and its impact on transition metals and how investors gain exposure to these green metals, with Nitesh Shah and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we discuss three things. Earnings expected tomorrow from Apple, Novo Nordisk, and Fortinet. The green transformation meltdown that just continues every month with Orsted as the key example today down 16%. Finally, we discuss the earnings season and the surprises from US technology and European companies, with Oskar Bernhardtsen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we talk about the three major central bank rate decisions this week (BoJ, Fed, and BoE) and how the bond market is pricing policy rate trajectory long-term in the US and Europe. we also explain the barbell strategy as one way to approach the bond market these days, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

It is a big week for central banks with rate decisions from Bank of Japan, the Fed, and Bank of England. In all cases, the central banks are expected make no changes to their policy rate, but Bank of Japan might tweak their yield-curve-control allowing the Japanese government bond yields to rise above 1%; the ceiling on Japanese bond yields was raised back in July by 0.5%-points. We also talk about the UK economy where inflation is still running hot, Eurozone inflation figures, and lastly the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we talk about rising gold prices despite rising yields in a move that smells of investors seeking hedging for a financial system in which something could soon break due to rising bond yields. We also talk about the oil market and how it is perceiving supply disruptions amid the escalating war between Hamas and Israel. Finally, we touch on the strong gains in soft commodities such as orange juice, cocoa touching a 44-year high, and sugar touching a 12-year high, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today we discuss the Q3 earnings season and in particularly earnings yesterday from Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) with Microsoft being the big winner according to investors as the cloud business grew faster than estimated at 24% y/y while Google's cloud business disappointed. On a positive note, advertising revenue growth from both Google and Snap suggest that companies remain positive on their outlook for the economy. In China, Xi Jinping visited the PBoC for the first during his leadership and new economic aid measures are being launched, but the market is still not buying the turnaround case on China. Finally, we talk about the recent economic figures confirming a robust US economy and early signs that Europe's economy might be turning around, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

The ECB is expected to maintain its policy rate on Thursday but the room for maneuver is tight for the ECB with the European economy in contraction and inflation remaining stubbornly high. Add to this rising US bond yields, potential tweak to BoJ yield-curve-control and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the ECB is in pause mode it it not a pleasant one. We also discuss this week's Treasury auctions for clues about positioning of bond investors on the yield curve and with recent weak Treasury auctions this week's auction could prove important. Finally, we discuss the different options investors have on the US yield curve depending on portfolio objectives, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

The US economy has been the big positive this year defying every forecast but can this exceptional run in the US economy continue? We discuss that and also what this week's US GDP and PCE reports could mean for the USD. In today's podcast we also discuss carry trades in CHF and MXN, and the upcoming ECB rate decision on Thursday which is expected to be a non-event. UK jobs report is out tomorrow ahead of next week's BoE meeting. Finally, we talk about the Australian economy and the upcoming inflation report and how it could move the AUD, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Falling bond yields the past week and the market positioning itself for 'peak rates' have seen gold bid. We discuss the different aspect of why gold could extend its momentum and what to look out for. The terrible developments in the Middle East have also pushed the oil market into a more volatile situation but still limited upside from here due to spare production capacity. In natural gas we of course discuss the latest developments including the leak on the Baltic natural gas pipeline, and finally we discuss crops from soybean and wheat that are seeing weak prices due to stronger production from major suppliers, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

A lot of action has come back in equities with the latest move lower in the US 10-year yield following geopolitical events in the Middle East pushing equities higher again. We also debate the 'higher for longer' narrative and whether the backdrop for equities is actually okay given the US economic strength. We also talk about Novo Nordisk that again has released another very positive trial data now related to kidney failure sending its shares higher while the world's largest dialysis provider Fresenius Medical Care has seen its share tumble as much as 24%. Finally, we go through the upcoming earnings on Friday from US banks such as JPMorgan Chase and next week's earnings from Tesla, ASML, Netflix, and American Express. Especially Tesla earnings will be important for sentiment in equities and the latest price cuts may be a warning of weakening demand for electric vehicles, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

The US bond market reaction to events in Israel over the weekend was delayed because of yesterday's closed US markets, but today bond trading has resumed and the initial reaction was lower bond yields. However, the longer end US bond yields have already come back higher again so the uptrend in bond yields remain intact. In today's episode we reiterate our call for staying in the short end of the yield curve or short-term high quality investment grade corporate bonds. Finally, we talk about the widening BTP-Bund spread and what it means for Italy and ECB rate policy, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

We are coming into this new week after a horrible weekend with geopolitical risks rising after Hamas' attack on Israel. The initial market reaction has been equities lower (-0.6%), Brent crude higher (+3.3%), gold and USD spot are also bid. But the medium term outcome both across markets and geopolitics will come down to how Israel responses as the spotlight is pointing at Iran as a supporting actor in Hamas' planning. In any case, the weekend's attacks could be a defining moment for the Middle East region. Across equity themes we expect logistics, defence, and cyber security stocks to be bid. Today's podcast is not only about geopolitics and we do discuss the US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday and the weak consumption figures coming out of China during the Golden week holiday, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

We are back with another episode on equities and with US bond yields galloping higher equities are under pressure. We talk about ways investors can reduce risk and what sectors or themes make sense under the pressure from higher interest rates. Then we talk about the Birkenstock IPO scheduled for pricing on Tuesday and first day of trading on Wednesday. The valuation of Birkenstock has actually gone up since the roadshow started as investors are recognising the strong brand and the upside potential from direct-to-consumer. Finally, we talk about the first batch of Q3 earnings releases next week with a focus on PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and JPMorgan Chase, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we quickly discuss the dynamics driving the spike higher in long US treasury yields (and yields around the world).  This sharp rise in real yields at the long end of the curve to remarkable new highs is creating a significant danger moment for markets. Investors should move to protect their portfolios. Here is a chart deck supporting some key points from the podcast and more.  The Saxo Q4 Quarterly Outlook. 

We back with another episode of the Saxo Market Call following a few missed episodes. In today's episode we cover what is going on in fixed-income markets which are essentially driving everything in markets these days. We argue staying in short duration bonds across inflation-linkers, corporate quality and safe-haven due to uncertainty over timing of 'peak rates' and the outlook for a potential stagflation, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's episode covering fixed-income we aim to answer the crucial question of how much higher bond yields can go given the latest move higher in the US 10-year yield putting pressure on equities. If energy prices remain bullish and economic data continues to look solid then the US 10-year yield could reach the 5-5.25%. In the case of weakening economic data and lower inflation the narrative in bonds could quickly turn on its head. We also talk about timing and bond carry to understand the dynamics of investing in bonds. Finally, we provide some example of credit bonds for those investors seeking high bond yields with short maturity and high credit quality, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Last week ended with both equities and bonds lower following the Fed's hawkish message with rates staying higher for longer to deal with inflation and the strong economy which lifted the longer end of the US yield curve. This week key event risks to monitor are the UAW wage negotiations, gasoline prices and more jitter around a potential US government shutdown. US consumer confidence figures tomorrow are also key to track and on Friday the market will get the latest PCE inflation data. Across the Atlantic in Europe, the market will get Eurozone lending survey on Wednesday and the latest inflation figures from Wednesday to Friday. Finally, we talk about China and how Saxo's clients in the APAC region have positioned themselves for a rebound in the Chinese economy through a net positive positioning in Hong Kong equities, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's podcast on commodities we discuss the FOMC rate decision and what the Fed's soft landing outlook means for commodities. We discuss everything from the opportunities in gold as a hedge against monetary policy mistakes, tightness in energy markets, downside pressure in copper due to rising copper inventories, and recent developments in the agriculture sector, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

With the market waiting for central bank rate decisions this week we take a step back and zoom in other parts of the equity market. We discuss the several red flags in the Instacart IPO and the extremely elevated forward valuation of Arm which is three times that of the Nasdaq 100. Realized volatility has lately been very low in the US equity market and investors might begin considering adding some hedges to their portfolio which can be done in different ways, and finally we discuss the three most important earnings releases next week from Micron Technology, H&M, and Nike, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

The US 10-year yield is breaking on a combination of improved economic activity in the US since May and recently a rally in oil lifting energy prices and inflation expectations. We talk about the upside and downside case on bonds, and finally we talk about interest rates in Europe and why higher bond yields in Europe are sending a different signal than in the US, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

A big week ahead for financial markets with central bank decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ with the market expecting no change from the Fed and BoJ, while BoE is expected to follow the ECB decision from last week hiking 25 bps. The economic landscape is getting increasingly difficult for central banks with the recent run-up in energy prices across both oil markets and uranium lifting inflation expectations and bond yields. In this podcast, we talk about the evolving economic landscape in the context of this week's major central bank decision. The key for investors will be the details in the forward-looking language and forecasts rather than the actual decision, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Brent crude is marching on as Saudi Arabia keeps the oil market tight raising the risks of stagflation in both Europe and the US. Will the current oil price curtail demand and will China begin tapping into its reserves? Copper has recently been supported by China's efforts to strengthen the yuan. We also talk about how copper is still structurally attractive giving the ongoing electrification, EV adoption and China stimulus. Finally, we go through the key movers in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Oil prices are moving higher on Saudi Arabia's oil production cuts. This is naturally adding tailwinds to energy stocks which are quickly catching up with the rest of the global equity market. We discuss energy stocks and their attractive valuations. The market for electric vehicles is being flooded with cheap Chinese EVs to a degree where the EU is now launching an investigation into Chinese subsidies for EVs lifting European carmakers and surpressing Chinese EV-makers. Finally, we talk about next week's earnings from FedEx will provide information on how the global economy and whether the outlook for global goods transportation is improving or not, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's podcast on fixed-income we preview the ECB rate decision on Thursday on the back of a recent stagflation outlook from the EU Commission making the policy decision a difficult one. We argue for a hawkish pause with the potential move by the ECB to stop reinvestments into the PEPP facility. Based on a slowing economy and stagflation light outlook we go through why both European and US sovereign bonds have an attractive risk-reward ratio, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's podcast on macro and FX we discuss the ongoing strength of USD which is a function of relative weakness in Europe and China, and to what extent the US inflation report on Wednesday will impact the USD trade. China has been in focus a lot lately as its real estate sector is in a deep crisis, but last week a ban of Apple's iPhones brought geopolitics back into focus. We also discuss what China's next potential policy move is to offset the recent weakness and how we should think about the weekend's G20 meeting with China's Xi Jinping not showing up. Finally, we discuss Europe's economy, inflation outlook and the tough decision for ECB on Thursday given the slowing growth and stubborn inflation, with Peter Garnry and Charu Chanana. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's podcast on commodities with discuss the recent rise in oil prices driven by an artificial tightness and what it means for the oil industry but also the economy. Our nuclear power equity theme basket was the performance winner August and today we discuss the underlying drivers for uranium and the nuclear power industry, and finally we touch on gold and silver on which we are patiently bullish given our stagflation call, with Peter Garnry and Ole S. Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's podcast on equities we talk about the growing electric vehicles ecosystem of recycling and charging, Adobe's earnings Thursday next week which will be important for sentiment on AI-related stocks, and finally we talk about next week's IPO of Arm and whether this is potentially "AI washing", with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's fixed income focused podcast we take a closer look at recent developments, especially the emerging focus on peak rates and its potential impact on yields and short-term rates. Also what are corporate bonds telling us, and finally we explain how the COT report for fixed income futures works and what drives the current record speculative short positions w/ Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen standing in for Althea Spinozzi  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

First episode in our new podcast format with Charu Chanana talking about macroeconomic topics and currencies. We talk about Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls figures underpinning the soft landing narrative ahead of potential stagflation concerns later this year. We also talk about the USD rally and whether it could end with strength going into the direction of CNH and JPY. Finally, we discuss the central meeting this week from RBA (tomorrow) and Bank of Canada (Wednesday) which have very different tasks at their hands.     Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L6i4WN   - Markets are calm ahead of today's US August Nonfarm Payrolls report which is expected to show continuous job gains in the US economy. In today's podcast we discuss the positive week in global equities led by technology stocks, potential turnaround in the US fiscal impulse, galloping prices on rice and orange juice, and a stronger Chinese yuan as recent policy moves have strengthened the currency. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3q2zG   - Momentum in equities is extending as 'peak rates' narrative gets stronger amid weakening macro data suggesting that tighter monetary policies are beginning to have an impact on the economy. We expect the ECB to go into a hawkish pause mode on policy rates and this thinking has got the market to bid up EURUSD in recent trading days. Momentum in gold is also responding well in recent weeks to the 'peak narrative' and elsewhere in commodities cocoa futures are approaching their highest price since early 2011. We also touch on earnings from Salesforce and UBS. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3UV7k   - Bad news was good news yesterday as significantly weaker than estimated US August consumer confidence and July JOLTS jobs opening pushed the US 10-year yield lower lifting equities, and especially the cyclical sectors such as semiconductors and carmakers. In currencies, the AUD is seeing the strongest bid and in commodity markets crude oil is still supported by tight markets. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QYEMnq   - Risk-on sentiment continues this morning with a strong Chinese equity session seeing Hang Seng futures rallying 2%. We discuss the new positive sentiment on Chinese equities, but also the ongoing risks to the Chinese economy. We also talk about the recent headwinds for the USD and positioning in industrials metals. Finally, we cover the 3M lawsuit settlement over defective earplugs to the US military and the upcoming earnings today from HP and NIO. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hjv27   - Jackson Hole delivers nothing that changes the outlook leading to muted reactions across various markets except for a collapse in implied equity volatility (VIX). Chinese regulators have lowered trading costs today causing a rally in Chinese equities with Hang Seng futures up 1% after being up as much as 3.2% as the market has its eyes on the Chinese shadow banking system. In currencies speculative short positions on the USD are being reduced and in commodities we still observe broad-based selling due to worries over China. We also discuss the rising refinery margins on gasoline and diesel impacting costs of transportation. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P9KAsU   - Today we look at the market turning tail badly yesterday and posting a bearish reversal after a gap opening higher. The action was sympathetic with the massive deflation in NVDA options premium as the gap higher in that company's stock on the company's results was entirely erased during yesterday's session. Elsewhere, we look at the USD resurgent ahead of a speech from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole, with ECB President Lagarde also set to peak. In fixed income, we note the continued elevation at the short end of the US treasury yield curve suggesting the market has priced in a higher-for-longer policy stance from the Fed. We note as well that today is the first day for major internet companies to face the EU's new Digital Services Act, with possibly huge implications. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ORhX22   - Today we look at Nvidia's results smashing everything in sight on results and guidance and offer some thoughts on what we missed in waxing so skeptical in yesterday's podcast, while still posing a few questions on whether its trajectory is sustainable. We also note the very weak Eurozone and UK PMI data, which helped engineer a steep slide in global yields and whipsawed currency markets. In commodities, the focus is on the resurgence in silver and the collapse in gas prices and surge in uranium prices. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3YNlKCd   - Today we look at the wild swings in Nvidia shares ahead of that important company's earnings report after the close today, with much at stake as the company has a very high bar to clear in terms of results and guidance, given the share price. We take a look at some of the largest likely buyers of Nvidia and why their capital expenditures have not expanded in line with the expected surge in Nvidia revenues. Elsewhere, we continue to discuss what the Fed will hint at in this Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell. In commodities, we focus on copper and oil. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/45C8m63   - Today we look at the strong resurgence in US equities yesterday, particularly in the most popular speculative names like Tesla and Nvidia, which jumped over 8% yesterday, trading close to the cycle highs just ahead of its earnings report after the close tomorrow. The strong resurgence unfolded despite US yields rising sharply, with the 10- and 30-year yields posting new 15-year and 12-year highs, respectively. We look at key upcoming Treasury auctions and what the Fed's Jackson Hole conference on Friday and into the weekend may be set to deliver in terms of policy hints. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P5e62S Today, we look at the start to a new week as China disappoints once again on soft-pedaling its approach to stimulus, weighing on risk sentiment in Asia. We also wrap up last week's rather dire action in the US and other equity markets as rising yields continue to pressure valuations. The week ahead features the biggest AI name of them all as Nvidia reports on Wednesday after the market close. On the macro data front we'll have a look at preliminary August PMI's incoming on Wednesday, while the bigger focus rolls into view with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium up on Friday and into the weekend. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/epMS6   - Risk-off sentiment continues in markets as worries over the Chinese economy intensify with the latest news being that Chinese property developer Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US. The Chinese shadow banking system is likely galloping towards a significant restructuring event. In addition to Chinese weakness big moves in the long end of the US yield curve are also putting pressure on risky assets. We also talk about Nvidia's earnings next and the negative sentiment across commodity markets. In today's On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/diEK5   - The weakness in equities continues with China's economic uncertainty being one driver and the FOMC Minutes yesterday another driver as they showed that the Fed still views inflation risks to be high and that rates will stay higher for longer. We also cover the ugly 20-year JGB auction that together with the FOMC Minutes took interest rates higher globally. In commodities we focus on copper and the general outflows in ETFs tracking commodities. Finally, we discuss terrible first-half results from European payment company Adyen and Orsted price momentum that is looking very ugly together with the rest of the green transformation segment. In today's On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/flR34   - Significant risk-off session yesterday with S&P 500 futures taking out the trading ranges of the prior two trading sessions as Fitch warned of US banking downgrade including JPMorgan Chase and strong US retail sales lifted bets for one more US rate hike. But outside US equity markets focus is increasingly on China with another company missing payments and worries over the shadow banking system in China. In commodities we talk about weak crude oil causing energy stocks to be the worst performers yesterday and gold that did not like the US retail sales report. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/uJUW4   - Equities rebounded yesterday with Nvidia shares leading the rebound, but equity futures are already turning around again with more weakness coming out of China forcing the PBoC to cut several key monetary policy rates.  Today we highlight inflation linkers in the US and also talk about the biggest outflow in ultra long-term US Treasuries in over a year. On commodities we talk about bids in copper despite Chinese weakness, gold weakness as real yields are increasing, and finally how grains futures have reacted to yesterday's US crops condition report. We also touch on Home Depot earnings expected to be released before the US market opens. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/dqNTY   - Equity markets ended last week on a weak footing which has continued this Monday as Country Garden, China's largest real estate developer, missed coupons on some of its high-yielding investment products setting off fresh nervousness among investors. Speculators have cut positions in USD but increased their short positions on bonds highlighting that investors are betting on higher interest rates across the entire curve. In commodities traders are shredding exposure in metals and agriculture while holding on to their long positions in energy on the recent move higher. On equities, we cover Exor's new 15% stake in Philips, Nvidia's weakness on Friday, and the new bid for a takeover of US Steel. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/ejmuO   - Yesterday's US July CPI report was a non-event for the market. We discuss how the more stickier part of the inflation basket remains elevated and well above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. We also discuss equity returns during stagflation, which is our new big macro call, and what it means for equity sector returns. The high short-term bond yields continue to act as headwinds for gold and wheat is struggling to find bids looking for the WASDE report for direction. Finally, we talk about a major acquisition in the US luxury industry, Alibaba's strong Q2 results, and ending on talking about next week's earnings releases. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/inqJ8   - The AI rally with Nvidia at its center is showing cracks with our bubble stocks basket down 13% this month and Nvidia shares breaking down technically yesterday. In today's episode we have also invited our Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen to talk in more details about his big call that the economy will enter a stagflation light environment. We also touch on today's US July CPI report and what it means for bonds, the big move yesterday in natural gas due potential Australian LNG supply risks and finally we talk earnings from Novo Nordisk, Siemens, and Disney. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Steen Jakobsen on macro, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/lzC57   - Today we discuss the possibility of stagflation in the years to come as our Chief Investment Officer Steen Jacobsen laid out the arguments for why such a scenario could play out. In daily grind of financial markets we discuss tomorrow's US July CPI report which is expecting to see another month of core CPI at 0.2% m/m. If US inflation continues to ease it could mark the peak in the Fed Funds Rate and accelerate bets on rate cuts next year. We also discuss the troubles at WeWork, oil markets, Novo Nordisk's 17% rally yesterday on good Wegocy trial data on heart risk, and the clarification from the Italian government on the new extra bank tax. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hnrHW   - Risk-off sentiment is coming back into markets today after disappointing July export figures from China confirming the weakness in the global manufacturing sector and risks to the global economy in the later part of the year. Equity futures are headed lower but in a bigger context still not showing signs of an incoming recession, so the direction in the bond market will be crucial to watch in the coming weeks and months, and especially given the recent curve steepening in US Treasuries. Commodities have lately been doing well due to tight supplies across many key commodities including oil, but some weakness has arrived on the back of disappointing demand linked to China's lack of economic momentum. With the market now pricing six Fed rate cuts by January 2025 we expect gold to come back into focus in the coming months. Finally, we talk about the surprise extra tax on Italian banks, Glencore's whopping 50% decline in EBITDA, and Palantir's positive revenue outlook last night. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Slide: https://bit.ly/450p3Ia   - In this Special Edition podcast, Saxo head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen takes us on a deep dive into the energy markets, with a rundown of supply and demand drivers, how balanced the market is these days, what the forward curve for oil tells us about the market, why refined products are as important to follow as crude oil itself, ways to trade the energy markets and much more. John J. Hardy hosts. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3OwkuA1   - Today we discuss the FOMC meeting, which brought the expected data dependency and a complete lack of new guidance, which has allowed the US dollar to continue lower as the VIX pushes back at the cycle lows. Meta reported strong results after the close, helping to take US S&P 500 futures to new highs for the cycle. We look forward to the ECB meeting today and wonder whether Lagarde and company have already pre-empted any ability to surprise with the recent shift to less hawkish rhetoric. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, can only surprise the market as we are all quite uncertain on their course of action from here. In upcoming earnings, we spotlight Intel and note important inflation data up tomorrow on the macro calendar. Today's pod is hosted by John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44C0Yrk   - Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we discuss the break higher in commodities that will likely eventually challenge the assumption of ongoing disinflation. We also ponder what today's FOMC meeting will bring relative to market expectations, and more importantly what the Fed is trying to accomplish as this cycle plays out into an eventual recession. We also look at the woes Europe faces here and the impossible task for the ECB. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rDYt9n   - Today we look at incoming data and how it will impact the yield curve, suspecting that weak data and the key Friday US PCE inflation release will see the market marking the forward Fed expectations lower, seeing this week's Fed rate hike as the last for the cycle, even if tomorrow's FOMC meeting will likely see the Fed maintaining optionality for the possibility of another hike. The ECB is certainly set for a more dovish turn, and we eye EURJPY downside risks in coming months. In earnings, we note the incoming semi-annual report from LVMH today and Google and Microsoft after the US close. This and more on today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DtRVwN   - Today we wrap up last week's action and note that the market could be in for some consolidation after the recent blistering run higher, with key themes in focus, especially AI after NVDA posted an ugly week and Microsoft backed out all of its share gains from the Copilot AI story last week. It reports tomorrow, as does the luxury giant LVMH after luxury stocks posted an ugly week. Elsewhere, Germany's horrific initial July Manufacturing PMI print of 38.8 begs the question on why the ECB is even hiking this week. We can likely expect even more dovish shift from Lagarde and company as growth woes dominate the focus. A EURUSD reversal risk in in play this week if 1.1000 fails. This and more on today's pod, hosted by John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44WWADd   - Today we look at the ugly break lower in the US equity market after the Tesla and Netflix earnings spoiled the party, with a snappy move higher in treasury yields possibly adding to the negative tilt in sentiment.  We look at the technical implications of yesterday's break in the rally and note that the status of the US dollar bear market is suddenly in play as well after yesterday's punchy rally and the spike in yields. All of this with a critical week ahead as the FOMC, ECB and Bank of Japan lined up for next week. Today's pod features Kim Cramer Larsson on technical analysis, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44VbCcD   - US equities tested new highs yesterday but closed mixed, with Tesla and especially Netflix earnings after the close chilling risk sentiment, with focus on Netflix's weak guidance and concerns for Tesla centered on the margin story as Musk forecast further price cuts on Tesla's cars, with fewer details than hoped on the Cybertruck. Elsewhere, we have a look at the strong euro versus weak JPY and CNH and wonder whether the ECB's recent dovish turn is prompted from the currency angle. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44NGKKU   - US equities ripped to new highs for the cycle as financials got a boost from more banks and financial services companies reporting, led by a huge advance in Charles Schwab on a strong earnings beat and guidance. But Microsoft stole the limelight, adding $150 billion in market cap in announcing the pricing for its new AI tools. Elsewhere, sterling was walloped by a softer than expected CPI report - does this spell the end of sterling's strong performance after a remarkable first half of the year? Today's pod features a run-through of the technical analysis outlook for key stocks, indices and gold with our technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson. Hosted by John J. Hardy.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XYOzeo   - US equities closed at new cycle highs yesterday as financials recovered sharply after the prior day's sell-off. The first two major US regional banks are set to report earnings today. Elsewhere, commodities prices suffered a drawdown as China-linked sentiment remains soft. In the earnings overview, we wonder whether Tesla's earnings report could inject some volatility into the very complacent backdrop, as the calm ironically increases market fragility and risk to any news that doesn't fit with the narrative. This and much more in today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pZ7bhT    - The equity market was unable to hold an extension of the steep rally on Friday, with financials leading the intrasession selling. Strong results from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo saw those shares gapping strongly higher on the open, but generally selling off thereafter. In FX, the USD backed up after a strong US University of Michigan sentiment report for July that boosted yields, but last week on balance saw a firm break lower in the USD's fortunes. In commodities, we focus on crude oil and the divergent and volatile grains markets. We also look at the week ahead in earning and macro risks and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44n5rhj   - The equity market rallied continued apace yesterday, encouraged by a drop in treasury yields all along the curve and benign US PPI data. Earnings season kicks off in earnest today and gathers pace next week - can companies deliver after the aggressive expansion of multiples over the last three months? In FX, we note that in trade-weighted terms, the Euro is at all time high (nominal effective terms according to ECB measure). We also note the rising anticipation that the Bank of Japan may have to tweak policy at its meeting in two weeks. Commodities have also been rocked by developments, where today we focus on crude oil, copper and silver. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hyW13   - Equities got the best of all worlds yesterday with US June inflation figures surprising to the downside painting a perfect picture of lower inflation, higher real disposable income, and no landing in the global economy (maybe even an acceleration?) leading to a US yield curve steepening with long bond yields declining. With animal spirits already running high this new setup took US equities to new highs for the cycle and the highest close in 15 months. We also cover the moves across other asset classes as the USD fell sharply and gold and silver rallied hard. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PR5uO8   - Equity sentiment continued to strengthen in Europe and US today, with Japan's equities under pressure from the recent sharp strengthening of the Japanese yen. A big test for USDJPY  and the US dollar in general over today's June US CPI data as the dollar index trades near the big range lows of this year. In equities, we break down why the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing should prove much ado about not-so-much in the near term and note that most of the upside in equities over the last quarter has been on multiple expansion more than anticipation of earnings growth. In fixed income, we note the extreme outperformance of junk debt this year and wonder when elevated US yields will begin to attract more assets into cash and short treasuries from equities. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XJQVho   - Today we look at the market sentiment stabilizing overnight as China moved to extend support to the property market. With yields edging lower still yesterday, the JPY rally picked up further momentum - is that move chiefly positioning drive and will the US CPI data tomorrow offer support for USDJPY or accelerate its decline? We also discuss the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing that is set for next week and whether this will trigger notable volatility in especially the very largest cap US stocks. Elsewhere, we discuss UK yields dropping after mixed labor market and earnings data, gold making a bid at rallying through resistance and crude oil trading into range highs. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43k7th9   - Today we discuss the weak close to the week for equities on Friday after the official US jobs data came in far softer than the blowout ADP private payrolls numbers the prior day. Interestingly, while long US treasury yields remained elevated, the JPY strengthened the most of any major currency versus the US dollar - is this on overextended positioning? Elsewhere, we look at TSMC's better than feared preliminary results of the last quarter, look ahead to the start of earnings season later this week, talk metals in the commodities round up and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link: Saxo's Q3 2023 Outlook - AI: The Good, the Bad and the Bubble Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/439Lyco   - Today we discuss the strong US data yesterday, including a blowout June ADP payrolls growth number and strong June ISM Services survey print. The data blasted yields higher once again at the long end of the US yield curve, a move that markets found unsettling as it represents a tightening of financial conditions. We also discuss the very odd internals of yesterday's US equity market session and whether all corners of the market are "getting" the risk of a narrative reset: that the US economy may be reheating. In FX, we look at why the JPY strengthened, so unusual to see when US treasury yields are surging. In commodities, we discuss the conflicting forces hamstringing the market in a range and the crosswinds hitting gold as well. This and much more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link: Saxo's Q3 2023 Outlook - AI: The Good, the Bad and the Bubble Link to this episode's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rcubu5   - Today we note yesterday's break of key chart resistance in US 10-year yields and ponder the implications while noting it is critical to watch whether the break holds through the next couple of days of incoming US macro data, especially the jobs report tomorrow. We also take an extensive look at UK gilts and whether UK yields there will compete with returns on equities, as well as how much work the BoE has to do (or core inflation has to fall) to get real yields anywhere close to neutral. A look at the JPY move overnight (in conflict with developments in US treasury yields), the upcoming US economic data calendar and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PDCutb   - Today we look at a market that is waiting for incoming data, with the long end of the US yield curve in focus as we watch whether we get stronger data and a yield surge that may tighten financial conditions, or whether soft data plays as "bad news is bad news" rather than continuing to encourage the seemingly ever easier financial conditions of late. We also note fresh "fragmentation game" angles on signals out of China and the US looking to possibly at the loophole in its restrictions on Chinese access to AI, we discuss the incoming earnings season, important perspectives for bond investors as significantly positive coupons have dramatically shifted the risk/reward in bond investing and much more Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DhGzMp   - Today we wrap global market developments as the US headed home early yesterday for today's market and national July 4 holiday. We also discuss the remarkable adoption curve of EV's in light of this week's impressive delivery figures from Tesla and others, especially the under-appreciated scale of two- and three-wheel vehicle production, and whether crude oil demand destruction will accelerate more steeply than currently anticipated. In fixed income, the focus remains on the remarkable inversions of global yield curves, with EU- and UK swap spreads indicating more pressure on rates to rise further than in the US. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CWCmNN   - Today we discuss the further rush of buying into month- and quarter-end on Friday that took the US S&P 500 index to a new high for the cycle, with Japan following suit to open this week after a strong Tankan survey. A look at the liquidity conditions that are supporting the move of late as well and whether these are set to continue, with the next test for markets either from the long end of the yield curve (which has teased the upper range of late and will be watching the heavy data calendar this week) or in the strength or lack thereof in the upcoming earnings season. Elsewhere, we look at the most extreme relative moves in corn and soybeans in modern memory, crude oil, AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA meeting and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pyvWBh   - Today we question whether the treasury market's sharp reaction to yesterday's strong US weekly initial jobless claims and jump in yields reveals that the market is very poorly prepared for a change of the narrative: one that suggests the economy remains strong rather than heading toward a soft landing. All eyes on the long end of the US yield curve! If financial conditions are set to tighten and next week's data proves strong, the US dollar could be set for a significant further surge higher and volatility could pick up from the quite low levels of late. We also discuss ASML's drop, Nike's results, equity market valuations, grains and gold and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pq1Fog   - Today, we note volatility still stuck in a rut as the concerns of coming US export restrictions on AI-chips failed to get any traction yesterday. The US yield curve is frozen in place and we ponder what might change the dynamics and blast us out of this period of remarkable calm. In FX, the USD is firming, while sterling was sent lower by BoE rhetoric yesterday. We also look at gold, crude oil, incoming earnings and the macro calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42WYm5O   - Today, our top story is the news that broke late yesterday suggesting the Biden administration may look at slapping new export restrictions on AI-related chips and how this casts a shadow on Nvidia's recent explosive share price rise. The news took Nvidia and AMD shares sharply back lower after the close yesterday. We delve into whether Nvidia's recent blowout quarter is in part due to panic buying from China ahead of anticipated restrictions and whether its longer term guidance is over-reliant on Chinese demand that may not be realized due to these restrictions. Elsewhere, we look at the latest moves in FX and commodities, where gold is under pressure near key support and crude oil is also languishing near cycle support. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44jjofR   - Today we look at another weak day for equities, with the selling concentrated in the mega-cap and AI-linked names after a Goldman downgrade of Tesla. Despite the extension of the sell-off, market fear measures remain very low. In FX, China puts up a fight against the yuan weakening trend. In corporate credit, we note an interesting turn for the worse in high yield relative to investment grade debt, noting the high nominal rates that less credit-worthy names will have to refinance at in this environment. We also preview debt-addled Walgreen Boots Alliance, which is reporting earnings today, as well as focusing on what to watch for in today's US data, particularly the June Consumer Confidence report up later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43Z2TFZ   - Today we discuss equity markets where the bull market status is teetering, and the weak internals in many themes and sectors in the US even as the headline advance has not yet reversed much of the recent large rally wave. We take a look at the limited impact from the kerfuffle in Russia at the weekend, note the importance of food prices, especially driven by wheat. We also offer some thoughts on where we stand with the AI theme, outline the incoming earnings reports for the week ahead, interesting stretched positioning in some currencies, and more. Today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/431EFJT   - Today we discuss the strong return of AI-driven animal spirits in yesterday's US equity market session, as AI-linked names dragged the averages higher while most sectors and the average stock posted an unimpressive day. In FX, we note the inability of the Norwegian krone and pound sterling to get a boost from large rate hikes yesterday from Norges Bank and the BoE. Elsewhere, we wonder when strong bond yields might see bonds beginning to crowd out stock allocations, particularly in the UK. We also discuss the recent rally in grains and how to gain exposure to agriculture via agribusiness stocks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42XXv4G   - Today we look at another weak day for the US equity market, but note that the VIX continues to shrug off the soft risk sentiment, closing at a new cycle low yesterday. We cover the hefty menu of central banks meeting today, with the Norges Bank hiking 50 basis points (market was divided on what they would do) as we were recording the podcast. We also look at heavily inverted yield curves, whether the Bank of England can deliver sufficiently hawkish guidance today to clear the bar of expectations, stocks to watch, including in agribusiness as grain prices are soaring and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck:   https://bit.ly/3XhX43Y  - Today we note that, despite the first negative day in some time in the US market yesterday, pockets of pronounced strength were found in many speculative names. Our Global Risk Indicator also shows the scale of improvement in financial conditions of late and suggests that the speculative energy may have room to extend. In FX, we note the interesting market reception of another new cycle high in UK core CPI this morning, as the market wonders whether the Bailey Bank of England has the right stuff to deliver as much tightening as is currently priced into the forward curve. We also talk the wildly strong US housing starts number yesterday, earnings to watch today and more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: bit.ly/3PmO5wz   - The energy is quite low across markets outside the fixed-income market with a lot of action this week around BoE and upcoming UK macro figures including CPI. PBoC cut the key 5-year benchmark rate in China by 10 basis points but the market was looking for 15 basis points. Chinese equities were disappointed extending their selloff from yesterday adding fresh worries that China is more constrained that initially believed when it comes to backstop demand and lifting economic activity. We also discuss FedEx earnings which is scheduled for after the US market close. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and Peter Garnry on equities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/444wOMS   - Today we look at the market closing last week on a slight dip after the prior furious run higher. One issue that has failed to trigger any market turmoil of late has been the US Treasury rebuilding its reserves, possibly as liquidity "stored" in the Fed's repo facility may provide some offset, at least for now. Elsewhere, we take a look at the rapid repositioning unfolding in the grains market on supply concerns in part driven by El Nino, copper and crude oil, EU versus US real rates, a preview of the Bank of England meeting this week and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43J0fnE   - Today we break down the answers to our latest Listeners' Survey, with more discussion of your questions coming up next week. Today we look at the surprisingly hawkish ECB, which doubled down on its guidance for more tightening, particularly via sharp upward revisions to inflation and labor costs for coming years. This gave the euro plenty of traction for extending its rally, aided by a soft US jobless claims number and on the Bank of Japan failing to even hint at plans to tweak policy overnight. The yen is in a death spiral. Elsewhere, we look at what has  been a very strong month for the commodities complex, discuss Adobe's results and the very busy week ahead on the macro calendar with another bonanza of central banks. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6     - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Nc0tg4   - Today we breakdown the FOMC's hawkish hold and the market's reaction to the upgrade of the outlook on the economy and higher dot plot projection for the Fed Funds rate for this year and the next two years as the Fed delivered a "higher for longer" message. We also preview the ECB and note that the long end of the US yield curve is the most critical, especially for pressure on the JPY, which has ratcheted dramatically higher ahead of a now critical meeting for the Bank of Japan. If yields continue higher, the BoJ must signal a willingness to tweak or risk further disorderly JPY declines. In stocks to watch, we note US homebuilder Lennar's strong results and highlight tonight's Adobe earnings call as the stock has ramped higher on anticipation of a boost from its new AI-driven products. This and more n today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6  -    Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NdNI4W   - Today we look at the market continuing its melt-up into today's FOMC meeting after yesterday's benign CPI , which most believe will bring a pause and only slightly better than 50/50 odds for a final July hike, although further out the curve, the market is moderating its bets on Fed cuts and treasury yields rose all along the curve yesterday. Will the Fed pushback or deliver on market expectations? In fixed income, we focus on the 30-year US T-bond yield and the huge rise in UK gilt yields. In commodities, copper is teasing key levels, while gold is pushing on key supports in places as risk sentiment and yields are on the rise. In equities to watch, we note AMD delivering a new chip that will go head-to-head with NVidia chips. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6 -     Link to slide deck for today's podcast: https://bit.ly/3Pc1lnA   - Today, we look at the market rally extending higher and verging on melt-up status. On that note, interesting to see whether the Fed's "third mandate" of financial conditions, or arguably the S&P 500, will play any role in its decision on whether to hike tomorrow, with most believing the Fed is set to pause and possibly hike in July. Of course, today's CPI will weigh as well. We also talk commodities after China's surprise rate cut, including copper, corn and uranium and note the AI-hype in individual equity names bordering on the absurd as seen in yesterday's Oracle earnings report and related headlines. This an more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6   - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43VKnxQ   - Today, we continue to discuss the building market bubble, with little sense of whether the FOMC and/or the BoJ this week will bring enough to the table to provide notable pushback. Regarding the FOMC, we wonder, given the March forecasts, why the Fed won't hike at both of the upcoming meetings. We also talk heavy treasury issuance this week, the energy outlook and recent rise in commodities, incoming earnings to watch this week and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Cleu6k   - Today we look at the market rebound yesterday, though still one with a number of divergences we have recently noted. Tesla had a banner day and was administered a dose of rocket fuel after the close on GM announcing that it would join Tesla's EV super-charging network. Given that today is Friday, this could well drive a bonanza of volatility and heavy trading in Tesla shares on the impact of the weekly options going 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiry) today. In fixed income, we focus on upcoming US treasury issuance and the pricing at the front-end of the European yield curve. FX moves, an emphasis on the heavy calendar of event risks next week (US CPI, Fed, ECB, BoJ & more) and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3oPzIGj   - Today, we look an even odder equity market session yesterday in the US than the prior day's session, as it featured another spike higher in value and small cap indices, while the broader market was mixed and megacap names, and particularly AI names, suffered a steep sell-off. This on a day that saw the VIX posting a new post-pandemic cycle low. In commodities, we focus on gold on the defensive after another central bank, this time the Bank of Canada, surprised hawkish. We also check in on natural gas, discuss diverging forward expectations curves for many central banks, note key stocks to watch, including a sudden jolt lower in Amazon, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NisSTc   - Today, we look at a remarkable US equity market session yesterday, which saw some underperforming sectors and themes performing extremely well while the broader market was very quiet. The sudden "calm" in markets here is reflected in the VIX dropping to its lowest level since before the pandemic breakout. We also look at the massive US treasury issuance set for the balance of this month and whether this will pinch liquidity and sentiment. We remark on 2-year EU yields and whether these are realistic, given further expected ECB hikes. In FX, focus on Bank of Canada today and whether it will prove the second central bank after the RBA to restart its tightening regime. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ne8get   - Today, we note that the US equity market rally looks remarkably extended after a more than 30% advance in the Nasdaq 100 year-to-date. We also offers some thoughts on, and look at the interesting market reaction to Apple's announcement of its Vision Pro "mixed reality" headset. In commodities, the focus is on the crude oil market after the weekend OPEC+ meeting and new cuts announced there, while we note the forward risks for grains on weather concerns and deteriorating crop condition for corn in the US. In FX, the RBA announced the second consecutive surprise hike and AUDUSD is trading at critical resistance. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qfu4gO   - Today we discuss the market action yesterday possibly suggesting a "buy the fact" moment for risk appetite on the debt ceiling lifting after the US Senate signed on to the deal yesterday. This, after many, ourselves included, have fretted the impact of the coming blitz of Treasury issuance on liquidity. We also quantify what is coming, in terms of the pace of Treasury bill issuance and discuss the confusion around the speculative positioning in treasury markets - is the pain trade for higher or lower yields? Elsewhere, have ECB expectations come off too aggressively, what are we watching for in crude ahead of the OPEC+s meeting this weekend, some stocks to watch, including Tesla, and much more, including several answers to SMC listeners' questions in our most recent survey. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3N6dzMZ   - Today, we discuss the steep consolidation in AI-related names after the recent huge surge, also noting the S&P 500 in complete limbo technically, possibly on volatility sellers continuing to bottle up the action. We also look at the winding down of debt ceiling concerns, which ironically could lead to liquidity pressures across markets as the US Treasury will need to rebuild its reserves. A look at crude oil ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, copper, grains, incoming earnings and sharp market reactions for Crowdstrike and Salesforce, important incoming macro data and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: Saxo Market Call slide deck   - Risk sentiment headed lower yesterday as the AI hype was faded by traders and the weaker sentiment extended overnight as China published weaker than estimated PMI figures for May adding fresh worries over global growth. In today's podcast we cover equity futures, Salesforce earnings, China's weaker growth, lower bond yields, the US debt ceiling deadline, strength in gold, and weaker across iron ore and copper. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ILNoZJ   - Today, we note the extreme divergence in equity market themes over the last week that is a hidden development underneath the strong performance of the major US indices on Friday. We look at the moderate impact thus far of the debt ceiling agreement-in-principle reached at the weekend, discuss the strong earnings season and few interesting names set to report this week. Energy and the European natural gas market are in focus in commodities while we also try to gauge where we are in terms of timing an eventual recession with US yield-curve and consumer confidence survey indicators. This and more in today's, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q82UbL   - This special episode of the podcast features an in-depth view on how to invest in commodities, one of the more difficult to understand asset classes at first glance for the novice, whether using futures, equities and other exchange traded products. The podcast is hosted by Saxo Head of FX Strategy, John Hardy and features Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IIo7PR   - Today we do a brief market wrap as US treasury yields continue to ratchet higher as a possible debt ceiling deal may be looming and as we ponder how that could alter the landscape. But the bulk of today's podcast is dedicated to the results from our latest Listener survey, rounding up the SMC listener's thoughts on where the US equity market, commodities and the US dollar are headed and addressing some of the many topics that our listeners thoughtfully forward. We'll round up some answers to more of these great questions in next Friday's podcast. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Latest Saxo Market Call Survey will be available until 1400 CET on May 25. If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts:  https://bit.ly/3OEFntn   - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IEHtoZ   -  Today we look at yesterday's session, which was mostly downbeat as US treasury yields continue to back up, but then with a huge change of tune in late trading on Nvidia results beating handily and guidance smashing expectations on company anticipating a bonanza of AI-related chip sales. We do a deep dive on the company's valuation and outlook and wonder, at 29.2 x sales (before the big jump after hours) whether the company's future growth can live up to the hype. Elsewhere, we look at another slide in copper prices, the performance of uranium prices and ETFs, key FX themes and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Latest Saxo Market Call Survey is now available! If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts: https://bit.ly/3OEFntn   -  Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IH63FR   - Today we assess yesterday's market downdraft and some of the reasons it is giving us an uneasy feeling, particularly with unknown volatility risk from rampant speculation in short term options in the mix. The big mark-down in luxury stocks was also a key signal. As well, we break down massive core inflation surprise in the UK and what it might mean for sterling and gilts, the debt ceiling lessons from 2011 for the US treasury market, key stocks reporting earnings, including NVidia today and much more. Note that we are saving the deep dive podcast on commodities for later release. Stay tuned for that. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The latest Saxo Market Call Survey is now available! If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts: https://bit.ly/3OEFntn  - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WwUirs   - Today we look at building tensions as US equities trade sideways at elevated levels for the cycle while US treasury yields rose once again to new highs since the March banking system turmoil. We wonder whether equity market investors are complacent on the risks of a liquidity pinch once the US debt ceiling issue is (presumably) resolved. We also take a look at Japanese and even Greek equities, two star-performing markets this year, the reaction to Zoom's earnings report, the upcoming RBNZ meeting, crude oil and gold and positioning and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q5bWGh   - Today we discuss the collapse in the US debt ceiling talks on Friday, with little to guide us on what happens next, but with markets mostly in a complacent mood on the issue. We also look at China's partial ban on Chinese companies using US chip-maker Micron's products, upcoming earnings this week, including Nvidia, which has been bulled up on its links to powering the AI future. In commodities, the focus is on grains and other softs already seeing a possible impact from the shift to an El Nino climate pattern. Gold technicals also deserve a mention as higher us treasury yields pressure higher. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pWMzGU   - Today is the second of our Saxo Market Call Listeners' Editions, prefaced with a brief market wrap from yesterday, which produced a strong rally extension in the US equity markets, supposedly on hopes that a debt ceiling deal is near, but also on benign economic data. With treasury yields also on the rise, it felt like the market expressing a belief in an improving economic outlook. On the debt ceiling issue, we caution that a solution could lead to a severe liquidity crunch as the US treasury rebuilds its reserves. The bulk of today's podcast is a look at listener questions from our survey last week. Stay tuned early next week for the next Saxo Market Call listener survey. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pJWL5o   - Today we ask whether it is the 0DTE phenomenon (zero-days-to-expiry in S&P 500 in particular) that has dampened volatility so extraordinarily of late and how long this phenomenon can continue to bottle up the market. We also take a look at US Retail helping to shock the USD stronger and push metals lower again, with gold taking out 2,000/ounce. Stocks to watch include Target and Walmart for more on the US consumer. The earnings outlook supporting European equities (including from Siemens), crude oil, the risk of a leg of stronger US dollar and much more on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42Y5HSX   - Today we highlight the enormous confusion and uncertainty in this market as elevated, but extremely rangebound markets are at odds with market pricing for an incoming recession and "the experts" have the most diverse set of opinions imaginable. Meanwhile, we get the latest extreme data points that don't provide any clarity: a wildly negative US May Empire Manufacturing survey after the strong April number and then a huge drop in UK payrolls in April that the market stumbled over and then largely ignored. Elsewhere we highlight stocks to watch, including Home Depot on its earnings release today and the debt ceiling meeting set for later today that will offer some insight on how sensitive the market is to that issue as we near the crunch time for US default risks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pIVWto   - Today we note the release of the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment survey, which showed the expectations component tanking badly while longer term inflation expectations suddenly ticked higher to their highest since 2011. Elsewhere, we note huge US credit growth as a possible sign of distress, the important macro data and earnings reports in the week ahead, the lack of a notable animal spirits in either direction in equities and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3O4VL5Y   - In this first edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast Listeners' Edition - we take a look at the many answers to our listener survey. Thanks very much to the Saxo Market Call community for the strong response. To address more of your questions, we have decided to make the survey a biweekly one, so we will follow up on more of your questions next week. We also have a brief market wrap at the end of today's pod, covering Google AI, copper breaking key support and sterling selling off on the Bank of England and more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42s3qj1   - In today's podcast, we note the market's choppy, but in the end positive embrace of the slightly softer US CPI data point yesterday as US treasury yields eased. On that note, we suggest that a crisis is almost needed to justify the market's forward expectations for the Fed, as pricing of significant easing starting later this year intensified yesterday. Could the debt ceiling issue drive that possible crisis scenario? Elsewhere, we preview today's Bank of England meeting and wonder whether the recent sterling surge means this will drive a "sell-the-fact" moment, as seemingly everything that tries to get moving ends up mean reverting (former EUR strength now erased, former JPY weakness now partially erased, etc..) We also talk Disney's woeful streaming results and much more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Responses to our new weekly Saxo Market Call Survey are pouring in. If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content this Friday's podcast:  https://bit.ly/42jEiLg   - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nM683M   - In today's podcast, we note that, while today's US CPI release is the US data highlight of the week, that it is unlikely to drive a significant shift in forward Fed expectations unless there is a rather profound shock in the numbers (more likely on a hot number than a cooler one). Elsewhere, we talk Stanley Druckenmiller's imminent recession and "hard landing" call, the dire situation for US office REITS and dark clouds over Blackstone on the commercial real estate worries made worse by the recent bank turmoil, crude oil & grains, incoming earnings, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Please take the new weekly Saxo Market Call Survey: your weekly chance to provide feedback and drive the content of the Wednesday and Friday podcasts!   Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NN4uK1   - In today's podcast, we note that the market is scratching around for catalysts as we await US CPI data tomorrow and wonder whether it will even prove a catalyst. The most interesting news overnight was the surprising plunge in China's imports in April, further challenging the "re-opening" narrative. We also look at gold, stocks to watch today, the challenges for Sweden's financial system, earnings to watch and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nClmbx   - Today we look at the big sentiment shift on Friday, in part driven by strong US April payrolls growth (although do note the negative revision of March data), but also driven by improved sentiment in US regional banks. We look at remarkably stretched positioning in US treasury futures for at least part of the curve, highlight the big shift in currencies late last week, note the treacherous shifts in the oil market, break down the week ahead in earnings, note the geopolitical risks in owning Apple shares, Warren Buffett's concerns on the US-China relationship, the week ahead on the macro calendar, especially the Wednesday US April CPI release, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42jqelf   - Today we look at yesterday's FOMC policy statement and press conference delivering, by design, as little as possible to markets and then the late slump in risk sentiment and US treasury yields that was driven by another US regional bank, PacWest declaring that it was "reviewing its strategic options". This after Fed Chair Powell declared that US banks are "sound and resilient" in yesterday' presser. We also look at the coincident spike in gold prices on this development, crude plunging again, copper near support, incoming earnings (including from Novo Nordisk), stocks to watch, the ECB coming up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/40XRS5t   - Today we look at yesterday's rocky market session on the March US JOLTS survey showing far fewer job openings than expected, but also on further turmoil and concern related to US regional banks. We also ponder what the reaction function to tonight's FOMC meeting will be, when the market has already fully priced a pivot and aggressive rate cut cycle into 2024 (Fed funds priced to drop to 4.40% by end of this year and another 100 basis points or more by mid-next year). Elsewhere, more bearish action in commodity prices and FX, JPY jumps on yield dump, and mixed news in incoming earnings, with bright spots but the overall earnings season and guidance heading south. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LwsIpc   - Today we look at the US equity still poised just under key cycle resistance, although the narrow rally in megacap names had the Nasdaq 100 testing new cycle highs over he last couple of days. We look at FX developments, including a surprise RBA rate hike overnight and an extension of the aggressive JPY sell-off which has taken USDJPY to critical resistance just ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. On that front, we wonder whether the Fed delivering the expected pivot to a glide path on rates could prove a "sell-the-fact" setup, noting at least that is far cheaper to hedge downside risk with much lower implied options volatility. Incoming earnings, including from AMD, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LGbXJm   - Today we look at the US equity market closing up against cycle resistance as earnings season has impressed and as the market seems in a celebratory mood on the prospects for the Fed pivot to a glide path this week after an anticipated 25 basis point hike, currently priced as the final hike for the cycle. Elsewhere, we look at FX, where the JPY continues to suffer a drubbing, and at position in US FX futures, which show the EURUSD position stretched. Notably EURJPY is hitting its highest levels in almost 15 years. Grains, crude oil, incoming earnings reports and the macro calendar for the week ahead and more all on today's podcast, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/449Xw7u   - Today we look at the market zipping back higher as the busiest day of the earnings season impressed even if Amazon's guidance spooked after the close. We also look at a very dovish Bank of Japan meeting as it sets itself up for a very leisurely policy review. The ability for the JPY to drop further will quickly depend on whether yields elsewhere turn higher again, however. A discussion of whether Germany increasingly sees China as a rival, industrial metals and food commodities and much more also on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Lc0O1x   - Today we look at a bit of deja vu all over again as we saw a negative session yesterday in the US followed by a megacap - this time Meta - reporting after hours. We note that regional bank stocks continue to struggle at cycle lows. Some of the weak sentiment yesterday was on the Republicans passing their spending bill in the House that would lift the debt limit, but with no one having a clue on next steps as this bill is dead-on-arrival in the Senate, much less Biden's desk. Elsewhere, crude oil dropped sharply again, while gold is sticky near 2,000. Today brings perhaps the busiest earnings report calendar of the season, while the first BoJ meeting with Governor Ueda at the helm is up tomorrow. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Nh6xG0   - Today we look at the sharp sell-off in US equities in the cash session yesterday, in part on a weak April US Consumer Confidence reading, but also noting the big sentiment shift back to the positive side after hours on Microsoft and Alphabet reported earnings. It is also difficult to discern how much the US debt ceiling issue is weighing on the US treasury market (and therefore supporting the Japanese yen yesterday). Elsewhere, we look at metals and crude oil and stocks to watch, rounding up major companies reporting and previewing Meta reporting today after the close. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LqrFbg   - Today we look at the most rangebound US market since late 2021 and wonder what will spark the next momentum move in either direction as we note the confusing evidence that various macro data points are throwing off about the US economy. We also note the increasingly downbeat earnings outlook from analysts and the huge incoming load of earnings reports, including from Microsoft and Alphabet today after the close. In commodities, we look at investor flows and the latest declines in wheat prices, while the weak US dollar is really mostly a strong Euro at the moment. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LoIaEG   - Today we look at global markets in very different places as slumping commodities are a huge question mark on the quality of the recovery and the China re-opening story, while Europe has gunned to within reach of all time (non-inflation adjusted) highs. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling concern level continues to intensify while we try to identify the next steps this week that will determine whether the odds for a mishap are rising or falling. For equities, this week brings the heart of earnings season, with a long list of megacaps and bellwether names reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UWzOYn   - Today features Saxo Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen. In the market wrap session, we take a look at market sentiment softening, in part on soft US data and Tesla's very bad day, but perhaps as well as the debt ceiling crunch time is drawing nearer and is finding expression in corners of the markets. We also take a look at crude oil retreating further, while iron ore spilled lower again confounding the China re-opening bulls. Steen takes us through his thoughts on the debt ceiling issue, the China re-opening story, but especially the market's nervousness as geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, as we discuss the recent seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde on "Central Banks in a fragmenting world" and all of its geopolitical and policy implications, adding to that US President Biden's setting up the May 19-21 G-7 meeting in Japan as a key incoming event risk on possible further moves against investment in China. Today's pod also features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3mI0PSJ   - Today we discuss the very quiet US equity market, highlighting that VIX has dropped to the lowest since late 2021 and with the gains this year driven by a very narrow slice of the largest megacap names, which have yet to report earnings for the cycle. Concerns looking forward include liquidity and the debt ceiling issue approaching crunch time. We also take a look at Tesla's results that saw that stock sharply lower after the close. Elsewhere, we discuss metals, climate change risks intensifying ironically due to cleaner air from new shipping fuel standards, and the big shift from La Nina to El Nino weather patterns underway and possible impacts. Incoming macro data and more also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UKZYx5   - Today we discuss the US market continuing to hold its breath ahead of key cycle resistance as European equities are also near all-time highs, at least in the EuroStoxx50. It's important to note that the US market rally has been driven by a short list of megacap names. Elsewhere, we round up Netflix and ASML and preview Tesla's earnings report after the close, and many US regional banks will be reporting in coming days, particularly tomorrow, so we should have a broad picture of the state of play for US bank stress by Friday. In commodities, we look at crude oil and natural gas, noting ETF flows that suggest investors are reducing exposure to oil upside. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UIHxZG   - Today we discuss the market in a holding pattern, which is actually quite impressive given the further sharp advance in US treasury yields, in part on strong US data, including a whiplash turnaround in the April Empire Manufacturing survey. Is this a sign that the industrial policy initiatives the US has announced over the last few quarters are finally working their way into the numbers? Elsewhere, we note a seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde before a US think tank, in which she riffed on the "fragmenting" world and policy imperatives, including the aims of fiscal policy, CB interdependence and more. We will follow up in coming days on the importance of this speech. Elsewhere, we consider stocks to watch this earnings season, the latest on gold and wheat & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic  

Link to Part 1 of this podcast:  In this continuation of the conversation from Part 1, we feature special guest Emil Sarauw, head of AI with Droids Agency, who takes us through his thoughts on all things Generative AI, from its applications to its implications. These span from envisioning how AI can provide a tremendous boost to productivity to some of the dangers it brings in terms of our ability as a society to trust information that is presented to us in all forms, from text to images and even video. We also have thoughts on how blockchain might address some of the latter dangers. Emil also peeks into the near and more distant future on the how the AI revolution will impact our professional and even personal lives. Also on the pod are Saxo's Peter Garnry and John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic  

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43FXvrC   - Friday saw a solid jump in US treasury yields, one that the incoming data didn't really justify, suggesting that market players have an agenda here. Could that agenda be the sense that there was an overreaction to the immediate implications for Fed policy from the Silicon Valley Bank crisis? The results and outlook from regional US banks this week should help answer that question. We also look at the bump in US yields helping the USD to reverse sharply from recent weakness and offer extensive commodity market coverage, especially on positioning, crude oil and copper. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KVuJMl   - Today we look at the market posting a strong session as US data was benign and as the US dollar rolled over to new cycle lows. Hard to read too much into local price action, however, as we await the Q1 earnings season kick-off today with the large US banks reporting and a heavy earnings calendar next week. We also delve into metals and commodity performance generally here, the end of the EuroDollar futures market as SOFR futures take over, the macro calendar for the week ahead and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UBoG2W   - Today we look at the choppy reception of the US March CPI figures and evidence that inflation remains a problem, with the risk that energy prices re-aggravate the inflation story in coming months as oil breaks higher. The US dollar is on its knees and breaking lower - a situation that could extend here. We also look at key stocks to watch, including the great news from luxury giant LVMH and preview the coming attractions for this earnings season set to kick off on Friday. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/4001mwQ   - Today we look at the market continuing to hold its breath, likely in anticipation of today's US March CPI release, where a strong directional surprise could unleash the latest round of zany intraday volatility on 0DTE (zero-day-to-expiry) S&P 500 options. We also discuss the compelling Japanese equity market, crude oil breakout potential, softs and precious metals on fire and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UuuM4T   - Today we look at a market that doesn't want to stay down as signs of incoming economic weakness aren't yet urgent enough to spook confidence, while we're also unlikely to see a significant reheating of inflation concerns. This could mean we have room for an extension of the equity rally, provided earnings season doesn't bring worrying guidance. We also take a look at FX, crude oil and wheat, stocks to watch, the economic calendar for the rest of the week and more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ub9x81   - In this special edition of the podcast, Saxo's John J. Hardy and Peter Garnry discuss the Generative AI phenomenon, both defining what it is and offering a few thoughts on its enormous potential impacts as Generative AI applications mature. The discussion also turns to the opportunities and especially the difficulties in finding publicly traded companies that are directly involved with Generative AI as virtually all of the pure-play activity in the space is still in the start-up phase. Plenty of food for thought on this technology, which is likely set to be the third great computing revolution after PC's were introduced in the late 70's and early 80's, then the internet arrived in the late 1990's and early 2000's.  Note: Sequoia Capital piece referenced extensively in the podcast.