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Risk of Ruin

English, Finance, 1 season, 37 episodes, 1 day, 9 hours, 29 minutes
About
Audio documentaries about risk takers.
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Credit Card Arbitrage

Matt writes the blog "Miles Earn and Burn" which stands alone in the credit card space. He has no ads on the site, and he writes about advanced strategies that don't make it into the mainstream travel blog world. The post that got me interested in having Matt as a guest said basically: go to your local credit union and see if there's anything that you might be able to profit from. In the advantage play world that would be called scouting. In the manufactured spend world it's known as probing. https://milesearnandburn.com/index.php/2023/09/29/taking-a-stroll-to-the-local-financial-district/Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly
12/17/20231 hour, 1 minute, 57 seconds
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You Can't Beat the Lottery*

Mr. Doppy became an advantage player hustling the video poker game Ultimate X. Since then he's gone after online sports books, credit card points, and also a state lottery.Mr. Doppy's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/MrDoppyEmail the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmail dot comFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly
10/25/202357 minutes, 34 seconds
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The Frontier - Part II

To this point we've published 33 podcast episodes covering everything from slot machines to hedge funds. This episode is Part II of an attempt to make sense of the guests, and make sense of the domain they operate in.To find the show on all of the platforms check out the Linktree.https://linktr.ee/johnreeder
8/19/202358 minutes, 26 seconds
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The Frontier - Part I

To this point we've published 33 podcast episodes covering everything from slot machines to hedge funds. This episode is Part I of an attempt to make sense of the guests, and make sense of the domain they operate in.To find the show on all of the platforms check out the Linktree.https://linktr.ee/johnreeder
8/17/20231 hour, 10 minutes, 18 seconds
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A Healthy Disrespect

Kyle Boddy is the founder of Driveline Baseball, which promises data driven performance training. He is best known for training pitchers in baseball. Prior to his career in sports Kyle was a professional gambler. On this episode he tells stories about exploiting online casino bonuses, as well as shuffle tracking, and playing poker.Driveline Baseball: https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/Follow Kyle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drivelinekyleBlackjack Shuffle Tracker's Cookbook: https://www.amazon.com/Blackjack-Shuffle-Trackers-Cookbook-Arnold/dp/B001CH9S0IBeyond Coupons: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdfThe Risk of Ruin Newsletter: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=substack_profileEmail the show: risk of ruin pod @ gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly
6/12/20231 hour, 4 seconds
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The Road of Trials

Houyi went from Yale Law School to a job in finance before he left it all behind to become a professional advantage player. He talks about counting cards, learning to play hole cards, traveling the world, and a fateful poker game in Cambodia.Email the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow us on Twitter: @halfkelly
5/6/202349 minutes, 55 seconds
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Bill Perkins is Not Afraid

Bill Perkins is a natural gas trader, a minor celebrity in the poker world, and the author of "Die With Zero." Bill talks about his start in the markets and becoming an energy trader. He tells the story of almost blowing up during an extremely cold winter.Links:Die With Zerohttps://www.diewithzerobook.com/Bill's Twitterhttps://twitter.com/bp22Bill's Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/billperkins/?hl=enWSJ Article titled "The Last Cowboy"https://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-perkins-is-the-last-cowboy-betting-on-volatile-gas-markets-1501844400Email the show:riskofruinpod@gmail.comTwitterhttps://twitter.com/halfkelly
5/6/202344 minutes, 45 seconds
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David & Goliath, Part I

They went to Las Vegas as card counters and over years they discovered other ways to win in the casino. Eventually they became advantage players. This episode is about the Las Vegas that existed before mega resorts. Our heroes played hole cards, used computers in the casino, used video cameras in the casino - to name a few of the crazy stunts they pulled off.Guests: Richard Munchkin, Mark Billings, Tommy Hyland, Darryl Purpose.Contact the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comTwitter: @halfkellyLinks:Gambling Wizards, Richard MunchkinThe Ultimate Edge, Mark BillingsFortune's Formula, William Poundstone
5/5/202339 minutes, 8 seconds
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David & Goliath, Part II

They went to Las Vegas as card counters and over years they discovered other ways to win in the casino. Eventually they became advantage players. This episode is about the Las Vegas that existed before mega resorts. Our heroes played hole cards, used computers in the casino, used video cameras in the casino - to name a few of the crazy stunts they pulled off.Guests: Richard Munchkin, Mark Billings, Tommy Hyland, Darryl Purpose.Contact the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comTwitter: @halfkelly
5/5/202331 minutes, 14 seconds
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Greetings from Las Vegas - Part I

Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas.Follow Zack White on Twitter.Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter.Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter.Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated. 
5/5/202346 minutes, 51 seconds
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Greetings from Las Vegas - Part II

Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas.Follow Zack White on Twitter.Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter.Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter.Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated. 
5/4/202345 minutes, 32 seconds
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Inside Long Term Capital

The story of Long Term Capital Management as told by LTCM partner Eric Rosenfeld. Eric earned a PhD from MIT, then taught at Harvard Business School, then became a trader at Salomon, then was a founding partner of LTCM.Resources:HBS Study on LTCM dividendEric's talk at MIT in 2009Michael Lewis article on LTCMWhen Genius Failed, Roger LowensteinFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail: riskofruinpod@gmail.comWeb: halfkelly.com
5/2/20231 hour, 3 minutes, 12 seconds
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The Disrespected

Marc Cohodes was the subject of the prior episode titled "Life's Too Short." Marc returns to the podcast to talk about figuring out the FTX scheme, using that to short Silvergate, and Signature Banks, and also the banking turmoil that has followed.Follow Marc on Twitter:https://twitter.com/AlderLaneEggsLife's Too Shorthttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lifes-too-short/id1527018692?i=1000498472731Odd Lots episode with Sam Bankman-Friedhttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sam-bankman-fried-and-matt-levine-on-how-the/id1056200096?i=1000531062191Alan Lane on the Pomp Podcasthttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/alan-lane-ceo-of-silvergate-why-bitcoiners-shouldnt/id1434060078?i=1000457223824Risk of Ruin Newsletterhttps://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Follow the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly
5/1/20231 hour, 12 minutes, 42 seconds
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Blackjack Legacy

Jeff Ma was a member of the MIT Blackjack Team. He told his story to the writer Ben Mezrich, who wrote a book titled "Bringing Down the House." The book was later made into the movie "21" which starred Kevin Spacey, Kate Bosworth, and Jim Sturgess.In addition to blackjack, Jeff talks about his career in tech where he has focused on using data and analytics to create value.Note: an earlier upload contained a claim that the Patriots were caught filming opponent practices. That has been corrected in the episode. They were accused of that, but they dispute it, and there was no evidence found.Links: The Bet the Process Podcasthttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet-the-process/id1291010585Follow Jeff on Twitter:https://twitter.com/jeffmaRisk of Ruin Substack:https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly 
3/13/202350 minutes, 6 seconds
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Life's Too Short

Marc Cohodes made a living exposing fraudulent companies, and profiting when their stock prices collapsed. But the life of a short seller is spent on a high wire because executives willing to engage in fraud don't play by the rules when their freedom is at stake. Marc tells the stories of the adversity he's faced holding public companies accountable. Marc recounts the war stories from his shorts of iomega, TCBY, Lernout & Hauspie, Novastar Financial, Jos. A Bank, Bally Manufacturing, Direct Focus, and more.Follow Marc on Twitter: @alderlaneeggsMarc's Mimedx Website: http://petiteparkerthebarker.com/Email the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comTwitter: @halfkelly
3/12/202353 minutes, 32 seconds
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Rabbit Hole

An episode about the ever elusive idea of winning at craps using physical skill, aka dice control. Guests: Advantage player Frank B., PhD economist Robert Scott, and special guest Richard Munchkin.Risk of Ruin Newsletter: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Links: Robert Scott's papers on dice controlhttps://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1375&context=grrjhttps://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1415&context=grrjGambling With an Edge episodes on dice control:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iWapKXDCH0https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gambling-with-an-edge-guest-frank-b-on-dice-control/id459476611?i=1000520531943http://www.slot-machine-resource.com/podcasts/kc.mp3
2/16/20231 hour, 5 minutes, 28 seconds
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The Mayfair Revisited

Erik Seidel and Steve Zolotow were among the gamblers to come out of the storied Mayfair Club in New York City. The Mayfair inspired some of the locations in Rounders, and is also known for the breadth of success that its players have had in poker. The episode covers the history of the club, its bridge and backgammon roots, and the careers of Erik and Steve.Special thanks to Larry Bernstein.Email the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmailTwitter: @halfkellyFollow Erik on Twitter: @Erik_Seidel
2/15/20231 hour, 24 minutes, 26 seconds
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Rocket Man

In 2022 Elon Musk signed an agreement to purchase Twitter. Then all hell broke loose. This episode is about that merger, the investors that traded it, and the most valuable Twitter follow to come out of the saga.Guests:Chris DeMuth - Rangeley Capitalhttps://twitter.com/ChrisDeMuthJrEvan Tindell - Bireme Capitalhttps://twitter.com/evantindellChance, Editor in Chief of The Chancery Dailyhttps://twitter.com/chancery_dailyMedia Clips Used:Tesla 3rd Quarter Earnings Callhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_SOWBDCQnMDavid Faber, CNBChttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycx4b9-2nFUYahoo News, Biden Administration Reviewing Twitter Dealhttps://www.yahoo.com/video/u-weighs-security-review-musks-010913575.htmlCarolyn Berger Appearance on CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/07/13/twitter-is-in-a-very-strong-position-to-be-on-the-winning-side-says-ret-delaware-supreme-court-justice.htmlElon Musk Sold Zip2https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9mczdODqzoPeter Thiel Comments on Elonhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y11uX8X6iz4Tesla Shareholder Meetinghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49e7LrxS3FQ&feature=emb_titleSEC Sues Musk Over Funding Secured Tweetshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjqp7LTb2B4&t=56s
2/11/20231 hour, 46 minutes, 10 seconds
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From Blackjack to Black Monday

Blair Hull played on the original Big Player blackjack team in the 1970s. He played with Al Francesco, Ken Uston, and ran into other pioneers of the game including Keith Taft. The Francesco teams were the subject of the book "The Big Player".  After blackjack Blair moved into the financial markets where he used his proprietary options strategies to turn $25,000 into millions. Blair talks about his life searching for edges, and the lessons he learned.Links: Hull Tactical ETFEmail the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow on Twitter: @halfkellyThe Big Player on Amazon
2/8/202334 minutes, 5 seconds
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The Audacity of Help

Richard Munchkin and Darryl Purpose are career advantage players. Over the past 40 years they've teamed up to win millions of dollars from casinos. In this episode they recount some of the war stories and also offer reflections on the nature of teamwork.Darryl Purpose's music website: https://darrylpurpose.com/Richard Munchkin / Gambing With an Edge: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/category/podcast/Earlier episode of Risk of Ruin featuring Richard and Darryl: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/david-goliath-part-i/id1527018692?i=1000493338179James Grosjean's "Beyond Coupons": https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdfEmail the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly
2/6/20231 hour, 13 minutes, 15 seconds
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Waiting on Value

Evan Tindell is a former poker player and now is the CIO of Bireme Capital. He talks about how he got into the market, and also his value investing based process for finding investments.Follow Evan on Twitter:https://twitter.com/evantindellBireme Capital Blog Post on Meta:https://www.biremecapital.com/blog/pounding-the-table-on-metaRisk of Ruin Podcast Newsletter:https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Email the show risk of ruin pod at gmail.Follow the show on Twitter:https://twitter.com/halfkelly
12/18/202249 minutes, 6 seconds
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A Family Business

Jim and Dan Pasko talk about their father and son sportsbetting operation. The Paskos use math to find positive EV bets like correlated parlays and player props. Jim Pasko has been a professional gambler for almost his entire adult life, first starting as a backgammon player during the heyday of that game. Dan joined him in professional gambling when they found opportunities with the early internet sportsbooks.Follow Dan on Twitter: @dan_paskoFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail.
10/17/20221 hour, 2 minutes, 2 seconds
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The Character Building Side Effect of Losing

Jason Strasser is the co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Caption Partners. While in college Jason became a high stakes poker player and was making $100k/month before he left competitive poker for Wall Street. Today he generates his edge trading options, looking for one-off events where the volatility of the options are mispriced by algorithms.Follow Jason on Twitter: https://twitter.com/strassa2Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly
10/3/202252 minutes, 21 seconds
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Two Hustlers

Mickey Crimm hitchhiked to Laughlin with little more than a sleeping bag and a backpack. In the casinos there he learned to hustle slot machines and play video poker with an advantage. He made a career out of these advantages and built up a bankroll over the years. Bob Dancer arrived in Vegas with a bankroll of $6,0000. He eventually became a video poker pro and then later a millionaire.This episode is about playing casino machines with an advantage.Resources:Follow Risk of Ruin on Twitter: @HalfKellyEmail the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow Mickey Crimm on Twitter: @MickeyCrimmBob Dancer's autobiography, Million Dollar Video PokerGambling With an Edge
9/14/202250 minutes, 49 seconds
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Zero, by Way of a Hundred

John Hempton runs Bronte Capital, which generates its excess returns primarily through shorting fraudulent companies. John walks through a hypothetical short, explaining how they find it, how they size positions, and the kinds of returns that can be expected. He also discusses his shorts of Valeant Pharmaceutical and Wirecard.John Hempton on Twitter: https://twitter.com/John_HemptonJohn's Blog: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/Netflix documentary on Valeant: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7909184/Email the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly
9/10/202255 minutes, 27 seconds
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The Game-like Aspect

Kai talks about leaving the work world behind in favor of early retirement, and the part time pursuit of bank and credit card bonuses. He also discusses Lean FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) and how churning bonuses fits into his FIRE plan.Kai's podcast: The Daily Churnhttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily-churn/id1577648675Email the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comTwitter: @halfkelly
9/5/202247 minutes, 8 seconds
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A Seemingly Obvious Idea

Andrew "Bert" Black is a co-founder of Betfair, which is the world's largest betting exchange. He recounts his life in gambling, coming up with the idea for Betfair, and how they managed to win the P2P betting war in the early 2000s. Bert's horse farm: https://www.chasemorefarm.co.uk/Bert's Twitter:  https://twitter.com/berttheboldEmail the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow us on Twitter: @halfkelly
9/5/202245 minutes, 25 seconds
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Made in America - Part I

The lives of two sharp sports bettors, and one bookmaker. Our guests talk about getting started in gambling, going from losers to winners, and the technology they use to keep their edges.Guests: Spanky, Captain Jack Andrews, and Ray MarinoSpanky's Be Better Bettors: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/be-better-bettors/id1493902736Captain Jack's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bH3gZ9jpBZYCaptain Jack's new venture: https://unabated.comRay Marino: https://www.bookmaker.eu/Frank B. talks about dice control on GWAE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REZgF55WPngFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.com
9/1/202244 minutes, 31 seconds
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Made in America - Part II

The lives of two sharp sports bettors, and one bookmaker. The guests expand on the relationship between sharp bettors and bookmakers. Spanky talks about being the target of a government investigation.Guests: Spanky, Captain Jack Andrews, and Ray MarinoSpanky's podcast on closing line value: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/closing-line-breakdown/id1493902736?i=1000505042641Spanky's interview with Chris Bruno: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/christopher-bruno-interview/id1493902736?i=1000500772401Captain Jack's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bH3gZ9jpBZYCaptain Jack's new venture: https://unabated.comRay Marino: https://www.bookmaker.eu/Follow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.com
9/1/202247 minutes, 45 seconds
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Before the Boom

Barry Greenstein is in the poker Hall of Fame based on a resume that includes decades as a professional player, and being a regular at high stakes cash games.In this episode he talks about his life playing games including bridge, backgammon, poker, sports, and more. He also tells stories from his 50 years in poker, where he's played with Doyle Brunson, Phil Ivey, Dr. Jerry Buss, Larry Flynt, Andy Beal, and more.Find Barry on Twitter.Find Dealio Poker.The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide KingAce on the RiverFollow the show on Twitter @halfkelly
5/23/202249 minutes, 30 seconds
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Swimming With Sharks

Howard Lindzon started his career as a stock broker. In the late 90s he founded a small hedge fund. Then he went on to found Wallstrip and Stocktwits. In 2013 his venture capital fund invested $100,000 in Robinhood.His career illustrates that the delineation between retail and smart money isn't a bright line. As a hedge fund manager he outperformed the S&P despite the fact that he did not have access to the same data used by most big funds. He advocates for, and his career supports, the idea of finding smart people to follow.Website: https://howardlindzon.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/howardlindzonEmail the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly
3/22/202243 minutes, 48 seconds
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The Idea Man

Dr. William Ziemba talks about his life working on horse racing, lotteries, and the stock market. Links:Bill's website where you can find his books and a summary of his career. Article on Bill BenterArticle on Jeff YassObit for on Paul MakinArticle on Harry McPikeWikipedia entry for Ed ThorpRisk of Ruin episode about Blair HullEmail the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow us on Twitter: @halfkelly
6/17/202146 minutes, 59 seconds
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What Are the Odds?

Arnold Snyder and Radar talk about becoming advantage players, a shuffle tracking play on a million dollar bankroll, and how they ended up together.Link to Radical Blackjack by Arnold Snyder: https://www.amazon.com/Radical-Blackjack-Arnold-Snyder/dp/1944877487/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=Email the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comTwitter: @halfkelly
6/1/202159 minutes, 19 seconds
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The Points and Miles Game

Travel hackers spend their days looking for inefficiencies in the credit card points system. This episode is about two travel hackers, Nick Reyes and Grant Thomas, and how they ended up completely down the rabbit hole. They talk about spending hundreds of thousands of miles per year, and also relay tips for newcomers to the hobby.Follow Nick Reyes on Twitter.Read his writing at the Frequent Miler.Get the Frequent Miler Podcast on iTunes.Follow Grant Thomas on Twitter.Read his writing at Travel With Grant.Email the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyGrant and Nick talk about credit card points, travel hacking, manufactured spending, discount travel, and more.
1/15/202154 minutes, 35 seconds
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The Road Warrior - Part II

The secret lives of traveling card counters. Comps, casino backoffs, a converted sprinter van, and more. The true story of what it's like to be a traveling professional gambler, by people that actually live it.Guests: SassyRed, Joe748, Ryemo, and DanEmail: riskofruinpod@gmail.comTwitter: @halfkellySpecial thanks to Colin Jones of Blackjack Apprenticeship.
10/23/202037 minutes, 3 seconds
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The Road Warrior - Part I

The secret lives of traveling card counters. Comps, casino backoffs, a converted sprinter van, and more. The true story of what it's like to be a traveling professional gambler, by people that actually live it.Guests: SassyRed, Joe748, Ryemo, and DanEmail: riskofruinpod@gmail.comTwitter: @halfkellySpecial thanks to Colin Jones of Blackjack Apprenticeship.
10/23/202040 minutes, 42 seconds
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Casino Exploits

The Gambling With an Edge podcast has made some 500 episodes featuring gamblers from every game imaginable. While most gambling content on the internet is filled with scammers and con artists, GWAE finds guests with credibility who have made their living as professional gamblers. This pilot episode is a tribute to GWAE.GWAE Archive: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/category/podcast/GWAE Facebook page:https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge/GWAE Blog: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/
8/7/202054 minutes, 41 seconds