The worlds of macro finance and crypto are continuing to draw closer together. On the Margin will host some of the greatest minds in the world of asset management, markets, and discuss how ideas that were once on the margin are now becoming mainstream.
Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF Outflows Begin To Slow, What Happens Next?
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This week, Mike & Mark give an update on the Bitcoin ETFs as Grayscale outflows begin to slow down. We then discuss this weeks FOMC, the QRA & Meta's blowout earnings. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
2/3/2024 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 35 seconds
Joseph Wang & Jack Farley on “Hawkish” January Fed Meeting, Tapering Quantitative Tightening (QT), and “Boring” Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA)
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
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This week, Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro joins the show to discuss the latest in markets after Jerome Powell's FOMC conference.
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference"
(07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices
(10:04) Joseph's View on Rates
(20:52) Vaneck Ad
(21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money
(32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement)
(39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024
(44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)
(49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets
(52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally
(01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB)
(01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
1/31/2024 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 41 seconds
Financial Conditions Remain Loose, Liquidity Has Surged | Mark Yusko
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This week, Mike & Mark discuss Tesla's disappointing earnings, the stock market rally as liquidity has resurged & the current state of the Bitcoin & crypto markets. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
1/27/2024 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 42 seconds
The Stock Market Is Pricing In A Soft Landing | Darius Dale
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This week, Darius Dale Founder of 42 Macro joins the show for a discussion on the current state of asset markets.
With the recession that never came to be, stock markets hovering around all time highs & Fed rate cuts in 2024, Darius makes the case that markets are pricing in goldilocks & a 2024 soft landing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:39) Markets Are Pricing Goldilocks
(06:29) The Recession That Never Came To Be
(10:55) DAS London Plug
(12:11) 2024 Elections & Janet Yellen's Liquidity Supportive Impulse
(15:25) The Highest Probability Is A Soft Landing In 2024
(21:10) Inflation
(27:06) Rate Cuts In 2024
(30:10) Blockworks Research Ad
(30:58) Oil
(33:21) What Is Happening In China?
(39:56) Bitcoin
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
1/24/2024 • 49 minutes, 21 seconds
The Bitcoin ETFs Attract Billions, Grayscale Outflows Continue
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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the whether the Bitcoin ETFs were successful or not? Despite large flows into the Bitcoin ETF products, outflows from Grayscale's ETF have contributed to price declines post ETF launch. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://copper.co/products/clearloop
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
1/20/2024 • 48 minutes, 47 seconds
Bitcoin's Role In The Debt End Game | Jonah Van Bourg
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This week, Jonah Van Bourg Director at Onyx & Former Global Head of Trading at DRW joins the show for a discussion on his 2024 outlook for both commodity and crypto markets. We deep dive into Jonah's Bitcoin thesis, the U.S debt end game & the outlook for an Ethereum ETF in 2024 & beyond. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(05:05) Trading Crypto & Commodities
(14:03) Copper Ad
(18:04) Macro Outlook In 2024
(28:22) The Debt End Game
(31:05) The Bitcoin ETFs
(35:55) Das London Plug
(37:12) The Bitcoin Thesis
(44:53) The Crypto Thesis
(48:54) Ethereum ETF
(55:18) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
1/17/2024 • 59 minutes, 29 seconds
The Bitcoin ETFs Launch | Weekly Roundup
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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the first day of trading since the Bitcoin ETFs launched. We dive into the flows, volume traded & Vanguards decision to not allow trading of the ETFs on their platform. We then break down this weeks inflation data & what it could mean for the Fed in 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
1/13/2024 • 58 minutes, 18 seconds
Bitcoin ETF Is Approved.. For Real This Time
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Mark Yusko & Michael Anderson join the show for a livestream after the SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin ETF.
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
1/11/2024 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 21 seconds
The Bitcoin ETF Is Approved | James Seyffart & Matt Hougan
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This week, James Seyffart ETF Research Analyst at Bloomberg & Matt Hougan CIO at Bitwise join the show to discuss the 2024 Bitcoin approval, the SEC hack & what to expect now Bitcoin ETFs are scheduled to begin trading.
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
1/10/2024 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 48 seconds
The Bitcoin ETF: Bitcoin's Bullish Catalyst
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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the Bitcoin ETF ahead of an expected SEC decision next week. Mark makes the case that the Bitcoin ETF will unlock billions of dollars of capital from institutional investors who otherwise wouldn't have access to the asset. To hear all this & more, you'll have. to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount. Prices go up in January! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
1/6/2024 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 41 seconds
Jim Bianco's Big Predictions For 2024
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This week, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research joins the show for a wide ranging discussion into macro, crypto & what investors should expect in 2024.
We discuss how to adjust to the end of the 40 year bond bull market, whether the Bitcoin ETF is a positive or negative for the permissionless ethos of crypto & Jim's outlook for the year ahead. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Referenced In The Show:
https://twitter.com/shekfu/status/1740523952362135662/photo/1
Joseph Wang's Markets Outlook 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcU93QeV8X8
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount. Prices go up in January! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) Reflecting On 2023
(03:04) DAS London Plug
(04:22) The End Of The 40 Year Bond Bull Market
(11:44) Inflation & Real Rates In 2023
(15:32) Jim's Outlook For 2024
(27:28) Blockworks Research Ad
(28:15) The Bitcoin ETF
(52:19) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
1/3/2024 • 59 minutes, 31 seconds
2024 Predictions: Two of Crypto's Top Traders | Ansem, Joe McCann
Ansem and Joe McCann join us to discuss their top crypto market predictions for 2024. Ansem and Joe are prolific crypto investors who nailed this year's Solana trade, and they're here to discuss what's next. In this episode, we cover Solana's price mania and outlook, navigating crypto's volatility, Bonk's rise and meme coin virality, the ETH vs. Alt L1 vs. DA trade, 2024's biggest opportunities, how to think like a trader and more!
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:13) Solana Mania: 2023 and Beyond
(08:46) How to Navigate Crypto’s Volatility
(14:55) Ansem’s Degen Score
(17:54) Bonk’s Rise and Meme Coin Virality
(28:01) Access Protocol Promo
(29:02) DAS London Plug
(30:00) Today's Investment Landscape
(42:04) Integrated L1s vs Appchains
(47:40) The Celestia and Modular DA Narrative
(52:27) Hottest Predictions for 2024
(59:17) What Are You Most Bearish On?
(01:04:13) DogWifHat: Does the Hat Stay on in 2024?
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Access Protocol is the best way to discover premium content from crypto's top publishers and independent creators. Access Protocol has reinvented content monetization, meaning you can access this premium content without endless ads or hard-to-cancel subscriptions.
Access Protocol is crypto-native, built on Solana, and already has 225K users reading content, receiving NFTs and interacting with creators! Use this link to check out Access Protocol today:https://bit.ly/AccessProtocol_Lightspeed
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Join us at DAS (Digital Asset Summit) in London this March! DAS is the #1 institutional conference in crypto, hosted by Blockworks. Use the link below to learn more, and use LIGHTSPEED20 to get 20% off your ticket! Sign up now because the price goes up every month. See you there!
Learn more + get your ticket here: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london/home
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Resources
Asymmetric Capital
https://twitter.com/goasymmetric
https://subscribe.asymmetric.financial/
Lightspeed episode with Ansem
https://spoti.fi/3GZ2slf
Lightspeed episode with Joe
https://spoti.fi/3NHYPE9
- -
Disclaimers:
Lightspeed was kickstarted by a grant from the Solana Foundation.
Nothing said on Lightspeed is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mert, Garrett and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
1/2/2024 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 13 seconds
Mark Yusko's Big Calls For 2024
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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the biggest events of 2023 & what to expect in 2024 for stocks, crypto & markets broadly. Thanks for tuning in throughout 2023, & we'll se you in the new year!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount. Prices go up in January! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
12/30/2023 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 34 seconds
Big Calls For 2024 & Beyond | Will Clemente & Felix Jauvin
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This week, Will Clemente & Felix Jauvin of Reflexivity Research join the show for a discussion on the setup for both macro & crypto heading into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Referenced In The Show:
The Damped Spring Report: https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/The-Script.pdf
--
Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount. Prices go up in January! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:35) Inflation & Rate Cuts In 2024
(05:04) DAS London Plug
(06:21) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance
(09:38) Do Deficits Matter?
(19:04) Bitcoin
(24:17) Blockworks Research
(25:05) Will We Ever See Another Bull Market Like 2020/21 Again?
(30:24) Ethereum
(34:13) Solana
(39:05) Coinbase
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
12/27/2023 • 50 minutes, 3 seconds
How Will Stocks & Crypto Fare In 2024
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount. Prices go up in January! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
12/23/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 44 seconds
Everything You Need To Know About The Bitcoin ETF | Eric Balchunas
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This week Eric Balchunas Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg joins the show for a discussion on the Bitcoin ETF.
With a 90% chance of approval in January, Eric walks through what gave him conviction in this prediction & the current things to look out for ahead of the SEC's decision. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount. Prices go up in January! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
(00:00) Introduction
(01:49) What Is An ETF?
(06:22) DAS London Plug
(11:50) ETF Distribution
(19:12) The Bitcoin ETF
(26:00) Who Will Win The Bitcoin ETF Race?
(29:53) Grayscale, GBTC & The ETF
(35:16) Blockworks Research Ad
(36:03) Bitcoin ETF vs The Gold ETF Launch
(40:20) Crypto Sentiment
(46:57) Will We See Other Crypto ETFs?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
12/20/2023 • 54 minutes, 45 seconds
2024 Fed Pivot Fueling The Everything Rally | Weekly Roundup
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
12/16/2023 • 42 minutes, 5 seconds
Bitcoin ETF: A Positive Catalyst For Crypto's Reflexivity | Tim Grant
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This week, Tim Grant CEO of Deus X Capital joins the show for a discussion on where to find the best opportunities in crypto. We discuss Blackrock's ETF, the differences between web2 vs web3 business models & crypto's reflexivity as an asset class. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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(00:00) Introduction
(06:00) Investing In Crypto
(13:23) Web2 vs Web3
(20:41) DAS London Plug
(21:42) Reflexivity In Crypto
(29:23) The Bitcoin ETF
(39:52) Blockworks Research ad
(40:40) The Best Opportunities In Crypto
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
12/13/2023 • 48 minutes, 14 seconds
Bitcoin, Stocks & Bonds Rally - Is It Sustainable? | Weekly Roundup
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
12/9/2023 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 25 seconds
Bitcoin Breaks $40,000, What Next? | Quinn Thompson
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On today’s episode, Quinn Thompson Head of Capital Markets & Growth at Maple Finance joins the show to discuss his Bitcoin outlook into 2024. We deep dive into the macro outlook for 2024, Bitcoins huge 2023 rally to $44,000 & the next crypto bull market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a...
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
12/6/2023 • 58 minutes, 8 seconds
Bitcoin Approaches $40,000 | Weekly Roundup
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This week Mike & Mark discuss the continued bull market as November saw a massive rally in stocks, bonds & crypto. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
12/2/2023 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 56 seconds
The "Debt Spiral" End Game | James Lavish
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On today’s episode, James Lavish Managing Partner at The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund joins the show to discuss his debt spiral thesis.
With a "tsunami of debt" on the horizon, James walks through the end game for the unsustainable U.S fiscal path. We discuss the odds of recession in 2024, how to repair the debt problem & which assets will thrive in this environment. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Referenced In The Show:
Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/
The Informationist: https://www.jameslavish.com/
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:46) A Recession Is Coming
(06:07) DAS London Plug
(07:25) There's A "Tsunami Of Debt" On The Horizon
(12:17) The Debt Problem
(26:03) Blockworks Research Ad
(26:50) The Debt Spiral
(33:36) The Debt Spiral End Game
(39:06) Bitcoin
(49:16) The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/29/2023 • 53 minutes, 49 seconds
The U.S. Dollar Is Overvalued
Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., returns to Forward Guidance to provide a quantitative update on currency and bond markets.
Jens makes the case that interest rates all across the yield curve are likely headed lower as the Federal Reserve’s last hike is in the rearview mirror, and he argues that the U.S. dollar could depreciate against “risk-off” currencies such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and even gold. Filmed on November 22, 2023.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:16) It's Been A Busy Year
(02:36) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of U.S. Economy
(13:13) Will There Be A Recession In 2024?
(15:51) Jens' Bull Case For Rates
(22:34) Fed Will Be "Much More Relaxed" If Services Inflation Continues To Moderate
(27:56) Potential For "Big Cuts"
(30:22) An Extraordinary Summer In FX
(33:48) Jens' Bear Case For Dollar Against Gold and Risk-Off Currencies Such As Swiss Franc
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/25/2023 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 36 seconds
Liquidity Is Rising, "Tug Of War" Between Stocks & Bonds | Julian Brigden
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On today’s episode, Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners joins the show to reflect on the current state of markets as financial conditions loosen & markets price in a goldilocks environment, as they deem the Fed's inflation fight over.
We discuss the path ahead for the Fed, the ongoing tug of war between stocks & bonds, the ripple effect of inflation & the structural bear market in the bond market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Digital Asset Summit 2024 Black (Rock) Friday Sale. Use Code: BLACKROCKMARGIN for a 20% discount on a 4-pack of DAS tickets: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/23/2023 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 10 seconds
Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A Bull Market | Weekly Roundup
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This week Mike & Mark discuss the inflation print which gave a further lift to equities over the week. Mark dives into the liquidity backdrop that is "driving markets" & what it means for the rest of 2023. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
(00:00) Introduction
(01:52) DAS London
(07:58) Inflation
(18:56) The Debt Problem
(25:47) Blockworks Research
(26:34) Bitcoin
(48:12) When Will The Fed Cut Rates?
(54:05) Artificial Intelligence
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/18/2023 • 55 minutes, 25 seconds
Fed's Stealth Liquidity Is Fueling A Stock Market Rally | Michael Howell
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On today’s episode, Michael Howell CEO of CrossBorder Capital joins the show to share his outlook for the global liquidity cycle and what it means for markets throughout 2023 & into 2024.
We deep dive into the mechanics of inflation, the impact of rising interest rate's on global refinancing, the reduced impact of QE from the Fed's shadow QE & the role of crypto & Gold in portfolios. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Referecned In The Show:
Stanley Druckenmiller & Paul Tudor Jones: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWccFlgaBxA
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:53) Liquidity Is Rising
(05:01) The Path Ahead For Inflation In 2024
(09:34) DAS London Plug
(10:52) The Liquidity Spiral
(14:48) The Impact Of Rising Interest Rate's
(17:44) The Liquidity Cycle
(21:38) The Fed's Shadow QE
(25:13) The QRA Fueled A Huge Stock Market Rally
(30:40) Blockworks Research Ad
(31:28) The U.S Fiscal Outlook Will Cause The Fed's Balance Sheet To Rise
(40:29) Gold & Crypto
(42:40) Who Is The New Marginal Buyer Of U.S Debt?
(48:49) Crypto As An Inflation Hedge
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/15/2023 • 56 minutes, 19 seconds
Bitcoin Bulls Are Back | Weekly Roundup
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This week Mark & Mike discuss the continued positive price action in crypto as Bitcoin breaks $37,000. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(06:16) Bitcoin Breaks $37,000
(17:19) FTX
(27:07) DAS London Plug
(28:25) All Eye's Are Still On The Bond Market
(48:07) Blockworks Research Ad
(48:55) Circle Plans A 2024 IPO
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/11/2023 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 15 seconds
The Path To $100,000 Bitcoin | Adam Back
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On today’s episode, Adam Back Co-Founder & CEO of Blockstream joins the show for a discussion on where we are in the Bitcoin cycle.
We deep dive into the mechanics of the mining sector, developments in the lightning network, whether or not a Bitcoin ETF is good for the ethos of Bitcoin & finally why Adam believes Bitcoin under $100,000 is undervalued. To hear all this & more, you'll have. to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:36) Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks
(05:42) Bitcoin & Bonds
(07:49) Bitcoin ETF
(11:54) DAS London Plug
(13:12) Where Are We In The Bitcoin Cycle?
(17:44) Bitcoin's Path To $100,000
(20:17) Bitcoin Mining
(37:02) Blockworks Research Ad
(37:50) Does More Bitcoin Hashrate Equal More Security?
(46:23) The Bitcoin Security Model
(50:57) Bitcoin Ordinals
(57:05) The Lightning Network
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/8/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 46 seconds
Huge Rally In Stocks & Bonds, What Comes Next? | Weekly Roundup
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This week Mark & Mike discuss the market rally in stocks & bonds after the U.S Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement (QRA).
We also deep dive into Powell's FOMC meeting, the Nonfarm Payroll's data release & this weeks Coinbase earnings. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/4/2023 • 54 minutes, 21 seconds
Andy Constan: Janet Yellen's Fueling A Massive Stock Market Rally
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On today’s episode, Andy Constan Founder of Damped Spring & Co-Founder of 2 Gray Beards joins the show to disucss the recent QRA release from the U.S Treasury.
As markets anticipated a higher amount of long end issuance, Andy turned bullish a few days ago when the numbers surprised to the downside & joins the show to explain exactly how he was able to catch this weeks risk on rally. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:44) Why Andy Wen't Long Risk Asset's Post QRA Announcement
(06:40) Bills vs Bonds Issuance
(11:41) Should The U.S Have Termed Out Their Debt?
(15:46) DAS London Promo
(17:04) Financial Conditions Have Massively Eased
(21:44) We're Back To Act I In The Inflation Cycle
(24:25) Blockworks Research Ad
(25:13) The Consequences Of This QRA Are Being Felt
(32:50) The Path Towards Recession
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/3/2023 • 36 minutes, 30 seconds
Michael Kao on November Fed Meeting, Treasury Refunding, & Bond Market Bear Steepening
Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, returns to On The Margin alongside Forward Guidance host Jack Farley to break down the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) and Fed’s FOMC meeting that marked the first day of November.
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Michael Kao’s article discussed in the show: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationoilgoldyield-curves-revisiting
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place.
As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ –
__
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/1/2023 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 14 seconds
Bursting Of The Sovereign Debt Bubble | Arthur Hayes
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On today’s episode, Arthur Hayes CIO at Maelstrom Fund joins the show to explore his current macro framework and how that will impact crypto for the rest of the year & into 2024.
We discuss the bursting of the sovereign debt bubble as bonds continue one of their largest sell-off's in U.S history, the dreaded bear steepener and it's impact on bank balance sheets, market liquidity & how crypto can act as a safe haven during periods of financial repression, deleveraging & inflation. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Referenced In The Show:
Oil: The Making of the Modern World: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/167-oil-the-making-of-the-modern-world/id1537788786?i=1000555057140
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:38) The Debt Problem
(05:43) The Dreaded Bear Steepener
(10:56) Are U.S Banks In Trouble Again?
(15:30) The Social Consequences Of Too Much Debt
(20:19) DAS London Plug
(21:36) Financial Repression
(28:18) Trade Wars Are The Mirror Image Of Currency Wars
(33:11) Blockworks Research
(42:27) Bitcoin
(43:15) The Crypto Bull Market
(54:42) The Bitcoin Halving
(56:05) Liquidity
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/1/2023 • 1 hour, 28 seconds
Bitcoin Breaks $35k, The Next Bull Market's Here | Weekly Roundup
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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the recent price action in Bitcoin. As Bitcoin breached $30k, it quickly ran up to $35k as investors anticipated an eventual spot Bitcoin ETF. We also discuss the gamma squeeze that took place, the increasing participation of "hodlers" & the role of the halving. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
10/28/2023 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 21 seconds
Dr. Claudio Borio & Joseph Wang on Fiscal Dominance, Financial Instability & the Boundaries Of Debt-Fueled Economic Growth
This episode is from another of Blockworks' shows Forward Guidance. We hope you enjoy & remember to go follow Forward Guidance:
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Apple: apple.co/3hXQu2F
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Today’s interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy.
Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on inflationary regimes, financial cycles, and the boundaries of debt-fueled growth. Borio notes that the materialization of interest rate risk has so far been seen in the banking sector, but that we have yet to credit risk. Filmed on October 17, 2023.
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Some of Borio’s and the BIS’ works mentioned in this interview:
“Monetary and fiscal policy: safeguarding stability and trust,” June 2023 Presentation in Basel, Switzerland, Claudio Borio
https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp230625a_slides.pdf
“The two-regime view of inflation,” March 2023, Claudio Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman and Egon Zakrajšek
https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap133.pdf
“International banking and financial market developments” BIS Quarterly Review, September 2023
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309.pdf
“Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?” 26 January 2023, Claudio Borio, Boris Hofmann and Egon Zakrajšek
https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull67.pdf
“On money, debt, trust and central banking,” January 2019, Claudio Borio
https://www.bis.org/publ/work763.pdf
“Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?” November 2021, Claudio Borio
https://www.bis.org/publ/work982.pdf
“The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?” December 2012, Claudio Borio
https://www.bis.org/publ/work395.pdf
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:32) The Interplay Between Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy
(09:50) High Levels Of Government Indebtedness As A Risk
(12:35) Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The Global Economy?
(15:56) The Financial Cycle
(24:12) The Two Inflationary Regimes
(36:45) Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening)
(39:34) Liquidity In Sovereign Bond Markets
(46:13) Non-Bank Financial Sector Is "Rife With Hidden Leverage & Maturity Mismatches"
(50:56) Interest Rate Risk Within Banking System
(56:45) Concluding Thoughts On Debt & Inflation
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
10/26/2023 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 8 seconds
Bitcoin Bounces To $30k, The Bond Sell-Off Continues | Weekly Roundup
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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the false Bitcoin ETF headline that sent Bitcoin soaring to $30,000, before diving into the broader crypto price action over the week. We then discuss the continued bond market sell-off that has lead to one of the worst bond bear markets in U.S history. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
10/21/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 1 second
An "Ocean Of Liquidity" Is Reversing | Neal Berger
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On today’s episode, Neal Berger Founder of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show for a discussion on navigating the uncertain year of 2023.
After launching his contrarian macro fund in 2021, and posting some of the best hedge fund returns in 2022 of 163%, Neal describes how 2023 has been a "challenging year" as his fund remains short stocks & bonds. Expecting the bond market sell-off to continue, Neil shares the path ahead for the rest of 2023 & into 2024. To hear all this & more, you’ll have to tune in!
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:40) 2023 Has Been Challenging
(06:43) This Bond Market Sell-Off Isn't Over
(11:12) Higher Interest Rates Are Negative For Stocks
(14:12) Blockworks Research Ad
(14:59) The Ocean Of Liquidity Is In Reverse
(27:30) Looking Ahead To 2023/2024
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
10/18/2023 • 36 minutes, 29 seconds
Inflation Has Peaked, Unless Oil Resurges | Weekly Roundup
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This week Mike & Mark discuss the recent sentiment in crypto markets. We then dive into this weeks CPI print, the bond market & how recessionary headwinds could start to emerge in the coming months. To hear all this & more, you’ll have to tune in!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
10/14/2023 • 53 minutes, 56 seconds
Bond Market Sell-Off Will Drive Equities Lower | Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic
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On today’s episode, two hedge fund veterans Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic, Co-Founders of 2 Gray Beards join the show for a discussion on the recent bond market sell-off, the journey towards recession island in 2024 & the path ahead for equity weakness depending on the U.S Treasury's QRA at the end of October. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Referenced In The Show:
Logan’s speech is worth reading: the “why” of this recent bond selloff matters importantly for the Fed: https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1711371085889864063
The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Michael Howell & Andy Constan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nZwrE_uNcg
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:28) How To End An Inflation Cycle
(06:43) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is Coming To Market
(17:12) The Fed Will Be Happy With The Bond Market Sell-Off
(19:43) Blockworks Research Ad
(20:30) The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening
(27:48) Debt & Deficits
(35:11) Reacting To Geopolitical Uncertainty In Markets
(41:33) Preparing For Act 4 In A Move To Recession Island
(47:41) Inflation
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
10/11/2023 • 58 minutes, 39 seconds
The Global Wrecking Ball: Surging Yields, U.S Dollar & Oil | Weekly Roundup
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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the historic declines in the bond market with the long end sell-off continuing. We also discuss the blowout payrolls data, which under the surface may not be as hot as the headline suggests. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/01:15 Renewed Bond Bear Market
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:14) DAS London
(06:11) Sell-Off In The Bond Market
(11:24) Payrolls Come In Hot
(18:54) The Global Wrecking Ball: Oil, U.S Dollar & U.S Yield's
(24:36) Blockworks Research Ad
(25:24) Beware Of FOMO
(35:10) Diving Into The Payrolls Data
(37:25) Are Equities About To Crack?
(41:49) What Stops This Bond Market From Selling Off?
(44:27) The BoJ Steps In To Curb Yen Losses
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
10/7/2023 • 57 minutes, 47 seconds
China's Old Economic Model Is Dying | Leland Miller
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On today’s episode, Leland Miller CEO of China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on the death of China's old economic model.
With China's weaker than expected reopening & many expecting the imminent collapse of China, we invited Leland Miller to the show to give a data driven look into the Chinese economy, to help us understand what is really going on beneath the surface. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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(00:00) Introduction
(02:31) Thing Aren't Great In China, But It Isn't Collapsing
(10:20) China's Old Economic Model Is Dying
(14:05) Xi Jinping's Push To "Common Prosperity"
(20:59) Blockworks Research Ad
(21:46) Inflation & Deflation In China
(27:30) How China's Growth Impacts Market's
(32:46) China's Rippling Inflation Impact
(37:54) U.S & China Relations
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
10/4/2023 • 46 minutes, 59 seconds
The Next Phase Of The Bond Bear Market | Weekly Roundup
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Mike and Mark tackle an explosive week of tremendous pain in the bond market alongside a continuing surge in oil prices. The pair consider the news surrounding potential Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, and Mark reminds listeners of his saying that "risk cannot be destroyed, it can only be transformed." Filmed on September 29, 2023.
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/01:15 Renewed Bond Bear Market
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:38) Renewed Bond Bear Market
(11:57) Oil Surges Again
(27:58) Blockworks Research Ad
(28:45) Bitcoin & Ether ETFs
(38:43) Sinister Saturday: Does Inflation Benefit The Elites?
(51:28) "Risk Is Like Energy: You Cannot Destroy It, You Can Only Transform It"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
9/30/2023 • 1 hour, 13 seconds
Is Goldilocks Going To End Soon? | Darius Dale
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Darius Dale, founder of 42Macro, returns to On The Margin to update Mike on his views on stocks, bonds, and the economy. Dale expects a true soft landing will be unlikely in the absence of a productivity boom, and, having correctly called the economic resiliency of the U.S. this year, he explains why he is now expecting a hard landing. Filmed on September 21, 2023.
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
(00:00) Introduction
(01:38) The Fed's New Dot Plot
(09:08) Darius's View On Interest Rates & Bond Yields
(20:50) Blockworks Research Ad
(21:37) The Sticky Inflation Narrative
(30:04) Darius' Outlook on Stocks & Bonds
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
9/27/2023 • 40 minutes, 9 seconds
The Market Doubts The Fed | Weekly Roundup
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
(00:00) Introduction
(01:10) Fed Meeting
(17:06) Foreign Holdings Of Treasurys
(26:20) Blockworks Research Ad
(27:07) Market Views On Stocks and Bonds
(55:27) Crypto & Bitcoin
9/23/2023 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 24 seconds
Brent Johnson: “Heaven Help The World If Dollar Continues To Skyrocket”
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On today’s episode, Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to On The Margin to share his view on the scorching summer rally in the U.S. dollar against other currencies. The surge in the dollar has been so fast and steady that Johnson expects a pullback, however, he warns that if the dollar continues to skyrocket then “heaven help the world.”
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:43) Where Is The Dollar Headed?
(11:59) Federal Reserve and Treasury Bond Prices
(21:19) Blockworks Research Ad
(22:07) Japan & China
(38:00) Inflation and Interest Rates
(44:20) Brent's Views on Recession Risk
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
9/20/2023 • 54 minutes, 52 seconds
A Second Bout Of Inflation, Or Disinflation?
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This week, Mike & Mark reflect on Blockworks' very own Permissionless II conference down in Austin after a busy week of panels, networking & most of all... Texas BBQ! We then take a deep dive into this weeks inflation data. Should we expect a second bout of inflation, or is disinflation still the consensus view? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
9/16/2023 • 51 minutes, 56 seconds
A Wave Of Treasury Issuance Will Cause Bond Yields To Surge | Andy Constan & Bob Elliott
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On todays episode, Andy Constan Founder of Damped Spring Macro Research & Bob Elliot CIO at Unlimited Funds join the show for a discussion on the emerging signs of a recessionary slowdown, the wave of U.S treasury issuance & it's impact on the long end of the bond market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
(00:00) Introduction
(01:11) Fading A Recession In 2023, But Are The Tides Turning?
(10:55) Central Banks Have Capitulated On Their Inflation Fight
(19:04) Blockworks Research Ad
(19:51) Understanding The Bond Market Repricing
(27:24) U.S Treasury Issuance Will Cause A Further Decline In Markets
(31:50) Inflation
(36:36) A Credit Crisis Is Unlikely
(51:03) How Have Hedge Funds Performed In 2023?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
9/13/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 44 seconds
Bankruptcies Are On The Rise | Weekly Roundup
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This week Mike & Mark discuss the rise of bankruptcy filings in the U.S. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
9/9/2023 • 1 hour, 12 minutes
The Interest Rate Shock Hasn't Been Felt Yet | Cameron Dawson
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On todays episode,Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth Cameron Dawson joins the show for a discussion on the impact of higher interest rates. We discuss the economy's sensitivity to higher interest rates, Powell's shift to being a hawk vs his career as a dove & what we can learn from the most recent earnings season. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
9/6/2023 • 50 minutes, 42 seconds
Grayscale's Victory vs The SEC | Weekly Roundup
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This week Mike & Mark discuss Grayscale's victory vs the SEC and what it means for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
—
Use code MARGIN30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
9/2/2023 • 57 minutes, 57 seconds
A Bitcoin ETF Is Coming, It's Just A Matter Of When | Charles Edwards
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On today's episode, Charles Edwards Founder of Capriole Investments, a Bitcoin & digital asset quant hedge fund joins the show for a discussion on the positive setup for Bitcoin heading into 2024.
Charles walks us through the potential setup he sees for 2024 & beyond in the Bitcoin & crypto markets tracking a number of key indicators including on chain data, the Capriole macro index, Bitcoin's halving schedule, hash ribbons & the wave of liquidity Grayscale's win vs the SEC could introduce as investors await a full Bitcoin ETF approval. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:37) The Three Factor Model
(03:53) The Relationship Between Liquidity & Bitcoin
(06:35) The Bitcoin Halving
(11:23) Permissionless Plug
(12:34) Grayscale vs The SEC
(18:05) Bitcoin's 10-Year Trajectory
(24:48) $COIN & $MSTR: Understanding Demand For Crypto
(30:48) Capriole’s Macro Index
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
8/31/2023 • 39 minutes, 15 seconds
The Zero Interest Rate Era Is Over, What Next? | Weekly Roundup
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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the slew of macro data over the past few weeks. We also deep dive into the sell-off in Bitcoin last week from $30,000 to $26,000, China's slowdown, the housing market & more! To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Use code MARGIN30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
8/26/2023 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 56 seconds
The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball In A China Shop | Michael Kao & Nick Glinsman
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On today's episode of On The Margin, Michael Kao former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Nick Glinsman Co-Founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners join the show.
With every recent headline revolving around China, we invite two China watchers to the show for a deep dive on China's debt problem, real estate headwinds & battle with outright deflation. We discuss the impact of the "U.S Dollar wrecking ball", which has being swinging in Asia, and what "trouble" lies ahead for the U.S treasury market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Referenced In The Show:
Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-geopoliticsinflationusd-ball-in
USD/China - The Donkey Kong Dollar Peg: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-usdchina-the-donkey-kong-dollar
Inflation/Real Estate - CRE Trends / The Strong US Consumer & The "Ivan Drago" Fed: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationreal-estate-cre-trends
Mental Models-Destructive/Constructive Interference In Econ Cycles: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-mental-model-destructiveconstructive
USD Wrecking Ball - Whither Art Thou?: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-usd-wrecking-ball-whither-art
Inflation-The Case for Bear Steepening/Why The Fed Won’t Pivot Soon: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflation-the-case-for-bear-steepeningwhy
Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1578888215494156289
West Point Paper -- Part 1/4: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/west-point-paper-part-14?r=jt0hj
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:44) USD Wrecking Ball In A China Shop
(11:05) China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over
(26:13) Permissionless Ad
(27:24) What's Causing The Bond Market Sell-Off?
(36:56) Bull vs Bear Steepening: Making Sense Of The Yield Curve
(44:40) Blockworks Research
(45:27) Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames
(58:06) The Sovereign Debt Endgame
(01:04:21) China's Impending Minsky Moment
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
8/23/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 51 seconds
Housing Market Downturn Isn't Over
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This week Mike is on holiday, so we bring you a special episode of Forward Guidance hosted by Jack Farley with Ivy Zelman Founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates.
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
8/19/2023 • 1 hour, 57 seconds
The Blockworks Origin Story
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Subscribe To Empire On YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j
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This is a special episode taken from the Empire podcast hosted by Blockworks Co-Founder Jason Yanowitz, private investor Santiago Santos & Framework Ventures Co-Founder Michael Anderson.
On todays episode we deep dive into the Blockworks origin story. We start at the very beginning in 2017, leading all the way through to 2023 & the ensuing 18 months ahead. We discuss the challenges of scaling a business, surviving March 2020, the evolving thesis for Blockworks' growth & trajectory and what it takes to build a great media business in the 21st century. To hear all this & more, you'll have. to tune in!
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Use code MARGIN30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
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Timestamps:
(00:00) The Blockworks Start
(08:20) Entrepreneur Mindset Origination
(11:42) Determining Product Categories
(19:18) The March 2020 Pivot
(24:12) Competitive Landscape
(30:26) The Hiring Difference
(34:36) Cycle Sentiment Check-in
(39:24) Aligning Teams in Crypto
(43:37) Target Audience
(47:04) Permissionless
(48:30) Evolving Thesis Approach
(57:03) Narrative Pulse Check-in
(01:00:02) Crypto's Killer App
(01:02:38) Why Back Blockworks?
(01:13:11) The Biggest Mistake
(01:16:16) The DAO Thesis
(01:23:12) Staying Interested Advice
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
8/9/2023 • 1 hour, 32 minutes, 54 seconds
Balaji Srinivasan: Crypto Networks, Sovereignty & Decentralization with Akshay BD
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This is a special episode of Lightspeed, Blockworks' newest podcast, where we interview Balaji Srinivasan and Akshay BD to discuss crypto networks, sovereignty and the practicality of decentralization. If you only tune in to one episode of Lightspeed, this is it. We discuss if crypto is a bet on tech or financial collapse, blockchain infrastructure ideologies, Balaji's Network State, how to build effective communities, the future of open source, combatting tribalism and more!
We're dropping this episode here as we think you'll want to add Lightspeed to your podcast lineup!
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Follow Balaji: https://twitter.com/balajis
Follow Akshay: https://twitter.com/akshaybd
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:01) Is Crypto a Bet on Tech or Financial Collapse?
(08:04) Appchains vs Monolithic vs Modular Ideology
(13:07) Why Akshay Joined the Solana Community
(15:54) Permissionless Promo
(16:54) The Network State
(31:21) Market Depth and the Overton Window
(37:25) How to Build Effective Communities
(43:43) Three Ways to Align People
(50:11) How to Combat Tribalism
(01:03:54) Crypto has PMF, Regulation is Holding it Back
(01:14:57) Will Centralized Companies Embrace Open Source?
(01:17:28) Advice for Startup Founders
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Resources
Jito
jito.network
The Network State
https://thenetworkstate.com/
The Network State (Balaji, Estonia 2015)
https://teleport.org/blog/2015/07/the-network-state/
Software is Reorganizing the World (Balaji, 2011)
https://www.wired.com/2013/11/software-is-reorganizing-the-world-and-cloud-formations-could-lead-to-physical-nations/
The Secret Document That Transformed China
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/01/20/145360447/the-secret-document-that-transformed-china
SuperTeam
https://superteam.fun/
https://twitter.com/SuperteamDAO
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Disclaimers:
Lightspeed was kickstarted by a grant from the Solana Foundation.
Nothing said on Lightspeed is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mert, Garrett and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
7/27/2023 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 15 seconds
Powell Raises Rates To A 22-Year High, Is This The End? | Jim Bianco
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On today's episode of On The Margin, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show to break down Powell's comments after the Fed raises rates 25bps to a 22-year high. Will this rate hike mark the end of the Fed's hiking cycle, or could we see a resurgence in inflation as month over month base effects begin to impact the year over year headline CPI number. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
7/26/2023 • 55 minutes, 23 seconds
The Recession Paradox | Alfonso Peccatiello
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Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023.
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The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:33) The Recession That Didn't Show Up
(11:48) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability?
(20:33) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate
(30:12) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits
(39:13) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending
(47:20) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending
(50:37) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No!
(01:02:01) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen?
(01:07:51) When Recession?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
7/19/2023 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 46 seconds
Recession Cancelled: Crypto Summer Is Here | Weekly Round-up
With Mike out, Jack Farley of the Forward Guidance podcast fills in to guest-host this episode. Mark and Jack talk about everything from the Knights Templar to the potential approval of Blackrock's spot Bitcoin ETF.
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https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
7/15/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 28 seconds
Central Banks Fight Inflation, China Battles Deflation | Nick Glinsman
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On todays episode Nick Glinsman Co-Founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners joins the show for a discussion on the current global macro outlook in 2023 as we enter the second half of the year.
While central banks continue to fight fiscal driven inflation using monetary policy, Nick argues that financial conditions are still too loose as markets continue to rally, credit remains contained & most importantly the labor market remains near record low unemployment. After taking us on a global tour of the inflation situation in the U.S, U.K & Europe Nick shares why China is actually battling deflation, and what the path ahead for the PBOC could look like. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
--
Referenced In The Show:
Malmgren Institute LLC: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:33) The Labour Market Remains Strong... For Now
(09:53) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity
(15:09) Permissionless II Ad
(15:58) The Fed's Stuck Between A Rock & A Hard Place
(16:40) An Update On The March Banking Turmoil
(22:00) The Power Of Fiscal Policy
(23:54) Debt, Demographics & Deglobalization
(28:57) Is The UK Economy In Crisis?
(38:35) Research Ad
(39:24) Further Risks For Private Equity?
(41:04) Why Is China Battling Deflation
(51:44) Is China's Liquidity Impulse Really Stimulative?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
7/12/2023 • 58 minutes, 27 seconds
Is Global Liquidity Beginning To Resurge? | Weekly Round Up
This week, Mike & Mark discuss the busy news week beginning with the Fed's decision to pause rate hikes, leading many to believe this could be the end of the hiking cycle despite Powell's comments that “nearly all committee participants expect it will be appropriate to raise towards the end of the year”.
We then discuss the global liquidity picture as China hints at more stimulus, the Fed pauses & markets continue ripping higher. Finally, we take a look at Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF filing and wether this will be a net benefit or negative for the crypto space. To. hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
6/17/2023 • 52 minutes, 52 seconds
Did The Federal Reserve Just Back Down? | Joseph Wang
On today's episode of On The Margin we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
Use codePODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
6/14/2023 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 53 seconds
Meme Mania: Why You Should Pay Attention | 1000x
SPECIAL EPISODE: This is an episode of Blockworks' new podcast called 1000x! 1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg that is for traders by traders (or anyone interested in trading/markets).
In this episode, Avi and Jonah discuss Bitcoin's outlook and recent meme coin mania. We start with a discussion on Bitcoin and if bank failures are priced in, what it will take for BTC to break past the 30K range and if institutions are buying. Avi and Jonah then debate if we'll ever see 2021s perfect storm again. Meme coins are pumping, blockspace demand is saturated, and market sentiment is shifting. Is this a market turning point or just a short-term phenomenon? Tune in to find out!
We'll drop a new 1000x episode on Empire's RSS feed and the 1000x YouTube channel every two weeks. Hit the links below and give us a follow!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:32) Are Bank Failures Priced In?
(07:31) The Impact of a Potential US Default
(12:51) Repeating 2021’s Perfect Storm
(18:03) Meme Mania: Why You Should Pay Attention
(31:30) Deflationary ETH and Blockspace Fee Generation
(36:34) BTC Miner Revenue and BRC-20s
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Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman
Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz
Follow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPod
Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3FuSarX
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
- -
Resources:
Golden Tree
https://www.goldentree.com/
Cumberland
https://cumberland.io/
BRC-20.io
https://brc-20.io/
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
5/11/2023 • 48 minutes, 13 seconds
The Banking Panic Isn't Over Yet | Weekly Round Up
This week, Mike & Mark discuss the continued banking panic after First Republic Bank lost around $100 Billion in deposits & saw its stock plunge over 95%. We then discuss the recent price action in the crypto market with Bitcoin hovering around $30,000 as some OG crypto whales begin moving coins in addresses that haven't seen activity in years. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
—
Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
4/29/2023 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 32 seconds
Governor Kuroda: The Decade’s Most Consequential Central Banker
This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
3/16/2023 • 47 minutes, 54 seconds
Crypto in 2023: Predictions Episode | Weekly Round Up
In today’s episode of On The Margin, we bring on Jason and Santi from Empire to discuss our 2023 crypto thesis. We debate predictions on the Wallet Wars, ETH vs Bitcoin, the rise of insurance, app-specific vertical integration, the adoption of CBDCs, Coinbase vs DEXs, MEV as a business model and more!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:30) Crypto’s 2022 Wrapped
(12:18) The Bottom is in for Crypto, not for Equities
(19:46) Kings of Spot & NFT Trading Will Lose Market Share
(22:50) Stablecoins, DeFi’s Resurgence and Permissioned Protocols
(28:10) Regulators are Coming, and the CBDC debate
(33:31) MEV will be the Business Model for DeFi & Exchanges
(42:13) No Industry Takes Off Without Insurance
(48:57) A Market Bottom & the Value of Memes
(52:44) Curve ad
(54:00) ETH vs Bitcoin (spicy)
(1:05:13) Miner Capitulation, Wallet Wars & Gaming
(1:12:54) Vertical Integration, Privacy and Payments
(1:19:13) The Rise of Professional Guilds
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Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko
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Empire links:
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On The Margin links:
Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3YGtdml
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Follow OTM: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
12/24/2022 • 1 hour, 25 minutes, 17 seconds
The Crypto Trader's Mindset | 1000x
Blockworks just released a new podcast called 1000x! We're dropping the first episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup. 1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg that dives deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3.
In this episode, Avi and Jonah discuss how to think like a crypto trader. They explore how today's market compares to the 2018 bear, where to look for opportunities, the investment landscape post-FTX and our top investing frameworks.
A new 1000x episode will drop on Empire's RSS feed and the 1000x YouTube channel every two weeks.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:28) Why We Started 1000x
(06:18) Today’s Market Compared To 2018
(16:17) How To Think About Trading Markets
(23:25) Market Structure Post-FTX
(28:05) Managing Risks
(36:30) Investing Frameworks
(48:12) Crypto Is Here To Stay
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Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman
Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz
Follow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPod
Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3Fw083Z
Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7
Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Resources
Golden Tree
https://www.goldentree.com/
Cumberland
https://cumberland.io/
Avi's psychology of a market tweet
https://twitter.com/AviFelman/status/1595176484766883843
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
12/15/2022 • 54 minutes, 25 seconds
The FTX Collapse Spreads To Genesis | Weekly Round Up
This week, Mark & Mike discuss the continued fallout of FTX. Genesis, the crypto prime broker, ran into liquidity issues during the week causing many yield providing platforms to reduce their yields to 0%. We discuss what this could mean for CeFi lending providers, and who it could effect next. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod
Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko
Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://onthemargin.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
11/19/2022 • 59 minutes, 54 seconds
Introducing: On the Margin with Michael Ippolito
Every Wednesday, Michael Ippolito sits down with the most gifted minds in macro to discuss current events in markets, asset management, and the continued adoption of digital assets.
Every Saturday, Michael and Tyler Neville, Senior Editor at Blockworks, recap the week's most significant relevant news.
This is On the Margin. Our first interview goes live March 17, 2021, and our first recap on March 20.