These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.  Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:State-contingent debt instruments can aid debt restructuring, but can carry fiscal risks

Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.Hosts: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service

Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk.Speakers: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Rehan Akbar, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s Investors Service

Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director - Global Sovereign Risk - Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond.Speakers: Rebecca Karnovitz, VP-SCO – ESG Research & Outreach at Moody’s Investors Service; Matt Kuchtyak, VP-Sustainable Finance at Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Natasha Brereton-Fukui, SVP-Global ESG Research at Moody’s Investors Service

EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China’s slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Continued high US interest rates, strong US dollar and possible rise in commodity prices mean EM central banks are likely to recalibrate the pace, if not the depth, of their interest rate cuts.Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated research:Federal Reserve on hold for longer implies slower pivot to policy easing for some EMs

This podcast episode examines the effect of interest-rate and oil-price volatility on EM, inflation in Asia and Central-Eastern Europe, monetary policy in LatAm and Egypt’s weakening credit quality.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Elisa Parisi-Capone, Vice President - Senior Analyst - Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Moody’s strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland’s election and India’s inclusion in an EM government bond index.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Steffen Dyck, Senior Vice President -- Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss the country-specific reasons inflation is slowing in emerging markets; why Mexico’s industrial production is increasing; and how Gabon’s coup factored into its outlook change.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Mickaël Gondrand, Analyst – Sovereigns, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode, Moody’s analysts discuss the reasons for the current property-sector stress and the potential effects for developers, banks that finance them, local authorities and the economy.Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss the growing use – and credit effect – of these transactions amid some sovereigns’ debt sustainability concerns and a need to invest in climate initiatives.Speakers: Thorsten Nestmann, Senior Vice President - Group Credit Officer, Sovereigns and Christopher Bredholt, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Public Project and Infrastructure Finance, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

BSI Fund Chief Investment Officer Kojo Amoo-Gottfried joins Emerging Markets Decoded to discuss emerging markets topics including the macro perspective and investor sentiment toward the asset class. Speaker: Kojo Amoo-Gottfried, Chief Investment Officer, BSI FundHosts: Scott Phillips, AMD – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investor’s Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector.Speakers: Lillian Li, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Jessie Tung, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss the credit effects of South Africa’s energy crisis, including macro and social implications, as well as the government’s plans to address the crisis.Speakers: Aurelien Mali, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Neil Griffiths-Lambeth, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss updates to long-term sovereign debt forecasts, accounting for recent market conditions, including higher inflation and interest rates.Speaker: Lucie Villa, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Frontier markets' debt sustainability at stake; political economy drives debt paths for some

Special guests Lee C. Buchheit and David Lubin share their insights on emerging market sovereign debt crises, the US dollar’s future as a global reserve currency, China’s evolving economy and more.Speakers: Lee C. Buchheit, Professor, University of Edinburgh; David Lubin, Head of EM Economics, Citi, Associate Fellow at Chatham HouseHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss India’s growing manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, favorable demographics and potential to achieve significant scale across multiple sectors in the next decade. Speaker: Kaustubh Chaubal, Senior Vice President – Corporate Finance, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated research:Growing industrial sector will drive economy, but may face investment hurdles

Moody’s analysts explore credit risks related to natural capital and biodiversity loss, why emerging markets are more at risk than advanced economies and which sectors are most exposed.Speakers: Lucia Lopez, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Rahul Ghosh, MD – Sustainable Finance, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Kelvin Dalrymple, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts explore credit risks related to the social contract, and how a weakening in the contract is often associated with credit deterioration in the countries where it takes place.Speakers: Elisa Parisi-Capone, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; David Rogovic, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody's analysts explore two downside scenarios to frame the likely impact of a US recession on EM corporates, combining lessons from past downturns with the many changes to the credit landscape in the years since.Speakers: Kelvin Dalrymple, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, AMD – Global Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts explore the key themes and policy issues likely to be at the center of the upcoming World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings, including banking turmoil, tightening credit, ESG and more.Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director – Sovereign Risk, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate decision and response to banking stress, recession risks and more. Speaker: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s AnalyticsHost: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss recent developments in the US and European banking systems, the implications for monetary policy and potential spillovers to emerging markets across the globe. Speakers: Donald Robertson, AMD – Financial Institutions, Moody’s Investors Service; Nick Hill, MD – Financial Institutions, Moody’s Investors Service; Eugene Tarzimanov, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Scott Phillips, AMD – Global Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service For related research, visit the Global Banking System Outlook topic page. As financial pressures mount in a time of higher rates and slowing growth, Moody’s will continue to share our analysis of evolving trends and repercussions for banks around the world.

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Nitish Bhojnagarwala of the Financial Institutions team and special guest Sohail Ali of DLA Piper join host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for Islamic finance across emerging markets. Plus, they dive into the intersection of ESG and Islamic finance, and the risks associated with “green” sukuk issuance. Related research:Islamic finance sector will remain resilient despite tight global financial conditions

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ighosime Oyofo and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team and Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team join host Scott Phillips to discuss the credit implications of Nigeria’s presidential elections, with a focus on the banking system and the sovereign. Related researchGovernment of Nigeria: Election disputes will delay policies to address Nigeria's pressing credit challengesNaira redesign policy creates some operational challenges for Nigerian banks

In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Scott Phillips of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss a recent turn of events for emerging market credit conditions, including some easing in financial conditions, with inflation, yields and spreads all lower than at the end of 2022, despite continued volatility. They explore what recent events mean for debt issuers in emerging and frontier economies and reveal which sovereigns are still at risk of default. Related Research:Tight financing conditions will continue challenging frontier markets' credit strength

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Jaime Reusche of the Sovereign team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of political unrest in Peru, how it compares to recent events in Brazil and credit distress in Argentina. Plus, Valeria Azconegui of Moody’s Local shares insights from the ground.Related research:Government of Argentina: External market debt buyback amounts to a distressed exchangeGovernment of El Salvador: Second debt buyback amounts to a distressed e:xchange, small transaction amount illustrates liquidity stressGovernment of Brazil: Brazil's political polarization is credit negative

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian Fang and Alex Perjessy of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the outlook for sovereigns across the Middle East and North Africa. Plus, they explore how recent developments in Iran could affect the rest of the region.Related research:2023 outlook negative as inflation, high interest rates broadly raise credit risks2023 outlook positive as high oil prices bolster finances, provide space for reforms

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Gene Fang of the Sovereign team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for credit conditions in China as it lifts Covid restrictions and reopens its economy, with a special focus on regional and local governments, the property sector, as well as potential implications for other emerging markets. Related research:2023 outlook negative as debt, contingent liabilities build, land sales remain weakSustained slowdown in China will have large spillovers to the rest of APAC and beyondChina Property Focus: Supportive policies will take time to have an impact on sales